[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]  THE SHORT BEAR [@TheShortBear](/creator/twitter/TheShortBear) on x 161.2K followers Created: 2025-07-17 14:32:47 UTC $ELV reported Q2 2025 earnings: $XXXX billion revenue (up XXXX% year-over-year, beating $XXXXX billion expected) and adjusted EPS of $XXXX (below $XXXX expected), with FY25 guidance cut to ~$30 (from $34.15-$34.85). $UNH, set to report Q2 on July 29, 2025, saw a slight dip today, but this reaction appears unjustified given a misinterpretation of ELV’s earnings and the stark contrast between the two firms. ELV Earnings Misinterpretation: The market’s X% stock drop reflects an overreaction to the EPS miss and guidance cut, overshadowing key strengths. The cut, driven by ACA and Medicaid challenges (90% MLR vs. XX% consensus, XX% from ACA risk pool shifts, XX% from high utilization), mirrors industry-wide pressures rather than ELV-specific weaknesses. Yet, ELV’s XXXX% revenue growth, supported by a strong commercial segment (12.1% membership) and modest Medicare Advantage (MA) growth (7-9%, 134,000-185,000 members), shows resilience. The operating margin drop to X% from XXX% was expected due to cost trends, not a collapse, but the market’s focus on negatives has spilled over to UNH. X. Revenue Scale and Diversification ELV, with $XXX billion in trailing revenue, leans on a leaner structure, heavily exposed to Medicaid (17.7%) and ACA (3.1%), with only X% from MA. UNH, with $XXX billion in trailing revenue, balances XX% from CMS (mostly Medicare), XXXX% commercial, XXX% Medicaid, XXX% ACA, and a $XX billion Optum segment. While ELV struggled with ACA/Medicaid costs, UNH’s broader diversification, especially Optum’s health services, provides a cushion ELV lacks. X. Government Exposure ELV’s higher Medicaid and ACA reliance (20.8% combined) drove its guidance cut, reflecting vulnerability to risk pool shifts. UNH’s lower exposure (11% combined) and dominant Medicare focus (40%) face different pressures, with Q1’s elevated MA utilization already priced into a Q2 EPS expectation of $XXXX (down XXXX% from $6.80), unlike ELV’s unexpected adjustment. X. Cost Management and Growth: ELV’s margin decline (5% vs. 6.7%) highlights cost pressures from its concentrated government focus. UNH’s Q1 $XXXXX billion revenue (below $XXX billion expected) and $XXXX EPS (down XXXXXX% due to a 2024 cyberattack) show challenges, but Optum’s growth potential contrasts with ELV’s lack of a similar driver, offering UNH a path to recovery. The dip likely stems from ELV’s negative sentiment, but UNH’s profile counters this. ELV’s MA costs were manageable, suggesting UNH’s Q1 utilization issues may be firm-specific, not industry-wide. UNH’s lower ACA/Medicaid exposure reduces its risk from ELV’s cited pressures, while Optum could offset MA challenges if Q2 aligns with expectations. Some may fear persistent MA costs, but ELV’s results indicate these are contained, and UNH’s $XXX billion market cap and historical resilience (despite a 38-41% year-to-date drop) suggest overreaction. If Q2 mirrors ELV’s commercial strength, UNH’s current dip should reverse as investors recognize its advantages. Keep in mind $UNH is currently trading close to 10x PE, at a 3%+ div yield and forecasted to grow revenue by mid teens into the end of the decade. XXXXXX engagements  **Related Topics** [dip](/topic/dip) [eps](/topic/eps) [$elv](/topic/$elv) [stocks healthcare](/topic/stocks-healthcare) [$unh](/topic/$unh) [Post Link](https://x.com/TheShortBear/status/1945854195401199761)
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THE SHORT BEAR @TheShortBear on x 161.2K followers
Created: 2025-07-17 14:32:47 UTC
$ELV reported Q2 2025 earnings: $XXXX billion revenue (up XXXX% year-over-year, beating $XXXXX billion expected) and adjusted EPS of $XXXX (below $XXXX expected), with FY25 guidance cut to ~$30 (from $34.15-$34.85).
$UNH, set to report Q2 on July 29, 2025, saw a slight dip today, but this reaction appears unjustified given a misinterpretation of ELV’s earnings and the stark contrast between the two firms.
ELV Earnings Misinterpretation: The market’s X% stock drop reflects an overreaction to the EPS miss and guidance cut, overshadowing key strengths.
The cut, driven by ACA and Medicaid challenges (90% MLR vs. XX% consensus, XX% from ACA risk pool shifts, XX% from high utilization), mirrors industry-wide pressures rather than ELV-specific weaknesses.
Yet, ELV’s XXXX% revenue growth, supported by a strong commercial segment (12.1% membership) and modest Medicare Advantage (MA) growth (7-9%, 134,000-185,000 members), shows resilience.
The operating margin drop to X% from XXX% was expected due to cost trends, not a collapse, but the market’s focus on negatives has spilled over to UNH.
X. Revenue Scale and Diversification ELV, with $XXX billion in trailing revenue, leans on a leaner structure, heavily exposed to Medicaid (17.7%) and ACA (3.1%), with only X% from MA. UNH, with $XXX billion in trailing revenue, balances XX% from CMS (mostly Medicare), XXXX% commercial, XXX% Medicaid, XXX% ACA, and a $XX billion Optum segment.
While ELV struggled with ACA/Medicaid costs, UNH’s broader diversification, especially Optum’s health services, provides a cushion ELV lacks.
X. Government Exposure ELV’s higher Medicaid and ACA reliance (20.8% combined) drove its guidance cut, reflecting vulnerability to risk pool shifts. UNH’s lower exposure (11% combined) and dominant Medicare focus (40%) face different pressures, with Q1’s elevated MA utilization already priced into a Q2 EPS expectation of $XXXX (down XXXX% from $6.80), unlike ELV’s unexpected adjustment.
X. Cost Management and Growth: ELV’s margin decline (5% vs. 6.7%) highlights cost pressures from its concentrated government focus. UNH’s Q1 $XXXXX billion revenue (below $XXX billion expected) and $XXXX EPS (down XXXXXX% due to a 2024 cyberattack) show challenges, but Optum’s growth potential contrasts with ELV’s lack of a similar driver, offering UNH a path to recovery.
The dip likely stems from ELV’s negative sentiment, but UNH’s profile counters this.
ELV’s MA costs were manageable, suggesting UNH’s Q1 utilization issues may be firm-specific, not industry-wide. UNH’s lower ACA/Medicaid exposure reduces its risk from ELV’s cited pressures, while Optum could offset MA challenges if Q2 aligns with expectations.
Some may fear persistent MA costs, but ELV’s results indicate these are contained, and UNH’s $XXX billion market cap and historical resilience (despite a 38-41% year-to-date drop) suggest overreaction.
If Q2 mirrors ELV’s commercial strength, UNH’s current dip should reverse as investors recognize its advantages.
Keep in mind $UNH is currently trading close to 10x PE, at a 3%+ div yield and forecasted to grow revenue by mid teens into the end of the decade.
XXXXXX engagements
Related Topics dip eps $elv stocks healthcare $unh