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![convexititties Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:24/cr:twitter::1763355951480913920.png) Convexititties, CFA [@convexititties](/creator/twitter/convexititties) on x 2047 followers
Created: 2025-07-16 04:01:41 UTC

Housing doomers, let’s not forget that the Fed also controls the pace of its MBS runoff. If it meaningfully curtails its runoff, the added liquidity alone could support a XXX bp decline in mortgage spreads, in my view. That would get you to XXXX% mortgage rates with a XXXX% 10-yr yield (today’s level). I know mortgage doomers are fully convinced that the long end will rise again if the Fed makes additional rate cuts, but, if the curve shifts in a parallel manner, you could get to X% mortgages with just XXX bps of cuts, or XXX% with XXX bps, which would result in a FFR of 2.75-3.00%, which is roughly neutral with the current inflation rate.

![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Gv82CxMW0AAdZ82.jpg)

XXX engagements

![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/p:tweet::1945332987475771572/c:line.svg)

**Related Topics**
[mortgage rate](/topic/mortgage-rate)
[housing market](/topic/housing-market)
[fed](/topic/fed)
[federal reserve](/topic/federal-reserve)

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