[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]  Michael Kao [@UrbanKaoboy](/creator/twitter/UrbanKaoboy) on x 106.6K followers Created: 2025-07-15 14:37:11 UTC Musings of the Day, 7/15/25: In this day and age where every other podcast and substack seems to predict UST/USD Doomsday scenarios, I found this contrarian note from DB interesting. It got me thinking about the 1995-2000 Productivity Boom from the advent of the Internet that led to a Budget SURPLUS by 1998. What’s extremely interesting is that Internet-led Productivity growth shot up to 2.5-3%/year vs. the XXX% stagnancy from 1973-1994. Guess what the CBO Baseline assumption is? 1.2%! If you think AI-led Productivity growth can boost that to just XXX% vs. the 2.5-3% of the mid-90’s, Debt/GDP naturally falls toward 100%. If we match the Productivity Miracle of the 90’s, Debt/GDP can actually fall back to 50%. Sure, there are differences this time around (Demographics is a big one) but whenever I see near XXX% consensus on a topic, my natural inclination is to explore what could make the crowd wrong. To Team Trump 2.0: Productivity is the KEY to Growth with subdued Inflation, and I would love to see additional Policy levers in the realms of Deregulation and Entitlement Reform to help boost the odds of a return to the mid-90’s Productivity Miracle. @SecScottBessent  XXXXXX engagements  **Related Topics** [government spending](/topic/government-spending) [budgeting](/topic/budgeting) [productivity](/topic/productivity) [$4452t](/topic/$4452t) [Post Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1945130526857421009)
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Michael Kao @UrbanKaoboy on x 106.6K followers
Created: 2025-07-15 14:37:11 UTC
Musings of the Day, 7/15/25:
In this day and age where every other podcast and substack seems to predict UST/USD Doomsday scenarios, I found this contrarian note from DB interesting.
It got me thinking about the 1995-2000 Productivity Boom from the advent of the Internet that led to a Budget SURPLUS by 1998.
What’s extremely interesting is that Internet-led Productivity growth shot up to 2.5-3%/year vs. the XXX% stagnancy from 1973-1994.
Guess what the CBO Baseline assumption is? 1.2%!
If you think AI-led Productivity growth can boost that to just XXX% vs. the 2.5-3% of the mid-90’s, Debt/GDP naturally falls toward 100%. If we match the Productivity Miracle of the 90’s, Debt/GDP can actually fall back to 50%.
Sure, there are differences this time around (Demographics is a big one) but whenever I see near XXX% consensus on a topic, my natural inclination is to explore what could make the crowd wrong.
To Team Trump 2.0:
Productivity is the KEY to Growth with subdued Inflation, and I would love to see additional Policy levers in the realms of Deregulation and Entitlement Reform to help boost the odds of a return to the mid-90’s Productivity Miracle.
@SecScottBessent
XXXXXX engagements
Related Topics government spending budgeting productivity $4452t