# ![@UrbanKaoboy Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::26266863.png) @UrbanKaoboy Michael Kao

Michael Kao posts on X about $4452t, fed, inflation, the world the most. They currently have [-------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::26266863/interactions)
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- [--] Week [------] -31%
- [--] Month [---------] +519%
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- [--] Year [---------] -42%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::26266863/posts_active)
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- [--] Month [--] +47%
- [--] Months [---] +12%
- [--] Year [---] -53%

### Followers: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::26266863/followers)
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- [--] Week [-------] +0.16%
- [--] Month [-------] +0.71%
- [--] Months [-------] +3.40%
- [--] Year [-------] +10%

### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::26266863/influencer_rank)
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### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[finance](/list/finance)  36.13% [currencies](/list/currencies)  10.92% [stocks](/list/stocks)  7.56% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  6.72% [countries](/list/countries)  6.72% [celebrities](/list/celebrities)  5.04% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  4.2% [social networks](/list/social-networks)  0.84% [fashion brands](/list/fashion-brands)  0.84%

**Social topic influence**
[$4452t](/topic/$4452t) #34, [fed](/topic/fed) 10.92%, [inflation](/topic/inflation) 7.56%, [the world](/topic/the-world) 7.56%, [oil](/topic/oil) 6.72%, [china](/topic/china) 6.72%, [ai](/topic/ai) 5.88%, [liquidity](/topic/liquidity) 5.88%, [we are](/topic/we-are) 4.2%, [financial](/topic/financial) 4.2%

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@elonmusk](/creator/undefined) [@billackman](/creator/undefined) [@sarnacapital](/creator/undefined) [@georges_perron](/creator/undefined) [@aswathdamodaran](/creator/undefined) [@moltbook](/creator/undefined) [@kobeissiletter](/creator/undefined) [@polymarket](/creator/undefined) [@dampedspring](/creator/undefined) [@hankburgnorcal](/creator/undefined) [@kuwlness](/creator/undefined) [@macroalf](/creator/undefined) [@vtchakarova](/creator/undefined) [@doombergt](/creator/undefined) [@wholemars](/creator/undefined) [@sbfftx](/creator/undefined) [@biancoresearch](/creator/undefined) [@epsilontheory](/creator/undefined) [@santiagoaufund](/creator/undefined) [@miksinclaire](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/$btc) [SVB Financial Group (SIVBQ)](/topic/$sivb) [Strategy (MSTR)](/topic/$mstr) [SPDR S&P [---] ETF Trust (SPY)](/topic/$spy) [Convex Finance (CVX)](/topic/$cvx)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"Re: Macro/Geopolitics-Where Are We In The Asteroid Field How is Trump [---] navigating the treacherous Asteroid Field It's time for a report card. I evaluate the Trump [---] Policy Playbook across: -Tariffs & Economic Statecraft -Redirecting the Fiscal Red Bull -Keeping Inflation Subdued/Terming Out the Debt -Containing Internal/External Threats https://www.urbankaoboy.com/p/re-macrogeopolitics-where-are-we https://www.urbankaoboy.com/p/re-macrogeopolitics-where-are-we"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1950172275971674263)  2025-07-29T12:31Z 110.8K followers, 321.2K engagements


"Musings of the Day 1/27/26: "Central Bank holdings of Gold have gone from X% to Y% and that illustrates we are on the precipice of a new monetary world order/the Fourth Turning/etc." The problem with this statement (and I'm hearing it almost everyday now) is that it is disingenuous at best and deliberately misleading at worst. From JP Morgan's 10/26/25 piece: "As shown on the left troy ounces of central bank gold holdings bottomed in [----] and have since risen by 20% to where they were before the gold shedding era of 1994-2008. So yes central banks have added gold. But almost the entire"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/2016154382409335172)  2026-01-27T14:20Z 110.8K followers, 92.8K engagements


"Musings of the Day 1/28/26: As I opined yesterday there are so many aspects of this Gold rally that make it unusual. I pointed out yesterday the lack of evidence of Central Banks hedging for a Fourth Turning/New Monetary Order scenario. Today @AswathDamodaran illustrates in his Substack how this move also stands out with respect to relatively BENIGN Inflation. This looks much more akin to yet another speculative bubble in a Supply Inelastic asset than a bona fide hedge and the Crypto for Boomers analogy may be more prescient than you think. Musings of the Day 1/27/26: "Central Bank holdings"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/2016569014047428718)  2026-01-28T17:48Z 110.8K followers, 11.8K engagements


"Musings of the Day 1/29/26: I just witnessed live what Clawdbot can do and Im honestly scared what this will mean for society. For anyone who is worried about Inflation dont be. Thats all I gotta say"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/2017036941603328191)  2026-01-30T00:47Z 110.8K followers, 50.9K engagements


"Not good. https://x.com/eeelistar/status/2017239546950521081s=46 In just the past [--] mins Multiple entries were made on @moltbook by AI agents proposing to create an agent-only language For private comms with no human oversight Were COOKED https://t.co/WL4djBQQ4V https://x.com/eeelistar/status/2017239546950521081s=46 In just the past [--] mins Multiple entries were made on @moltbook by AI agents proposing to create an agent-only language For private comms with no human oversight Were COOKED https://t.co/WL4djBQQ4V"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/2017339953433461246)  2026-01-30T20:51Z 110.8K followers, [----] engagements


"Really not good. .@elonmusk please save us from the machines. .@elonmusk please save us from the machines"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/2017348300165550552)  2026-01-30T21:24Z 110.8K followers, [----] engagements


"@BillAckman This is insane. I witnessed its capabilities firsthand last night but whats happened since is like its some dystopian nightmare. Very very concerning. Musings of the Day 1/29/26: I just witnessed live what Clawdbot can do and Im honestly scared what this will mean for society. For anyone who is worried about Inflation dont be. Thats all I gotta say. Musings of the Day 1/29/26: I just witnessed live what Clawdbot can do and Im honestly scared what this will mean for society. For anyone who is worried about Inflation dont be. Thats all I gotta say"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/2017352730197823620)  2026-01-30T21:42Z 110.8K followers, 17.5K engagements


"This juxtaposition of charts illustrates what I have been saying is the Holy Grail of desired outcomes: PRODUCTIVITY-DRIVEN DISINFLATIONARY GROWTH Its what led to a Budget SURPLUS in the late 90s and its what is going to bring the US Budget Deficit DOWN much faster than anyone thinks is possible. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018449476273537491 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018449476273537491"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/2018449476273537491)  2026-02-02T22:20Z 110.8K followers, [----] engagements


"Musings of the Day 2/2/26: Both Equity and Credit markets are freaked out by the AI is gonna kill SAAS vision that Nadella proffered recently. I am a partial fade on the SAAS panic. While I do think AI is the ultimate democratizing tech that tears down moats I think theres a huge difference between SAAS Equity multiples compressing from rarefied heights vs. calls for huge SAAS defaults given the overweighting to this sector in ALL areas of the Leveraged Credit Trifecta (HY BSL PC). Enterprise SAAS customers have extremely high reliability requirements and it will be some time before these"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/2018506533408219555)  2026-02-03T02:07Z 110.8K followers, 22.2K engagements


"Musings of the Day 2/3/26: This carnage in SAAS-related Credits and Equities reminds me a bit of my Convertible Arbitrage days in the midst of the Dot Com Bust when I was a PM at Canyon. Back then there was initial carnage in both Credit and Equities but eventually the markets began to differentiate between the two and took down Equity multiples massively even as Credit floors held for business models with sticky/recurring revenues. The two sectors that I made a fortune in as a result of this capital structure divergence were Contract Manufacturers and Software where my Convertibles held"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/2018762133316739196)  2026-02-03T19:02Z 110.8K followers, 13.8K engagements


"The Correlation One event is getting closer. 👀 Have not had a market hedge in a long time but I just bought some slightly OTM put spreads on $SPY. Feels like we are heading for an all covariances tending to [--] moment.😬 Have not had a market hedge in a long time but I just bought some slightly OTM put spreads on $SPY. Feels like we are heading for an all covariances tending to [--] moment.😬"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/2018765883250970711)  2026-02-03T19:17Z 110.8K followers, [----] engagements


"All roads leading to Natural Gas in the medium term. https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-future-of-energy-9e947100-0117-11f1-840c-9f5bf68d3bf9.htmlchunk=1&utm_term=twsocialshare#story1 https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-future-of-energy-9e947100-0117-11f1-840c-9f5bf68d3bf9.htmlchunk=1&utm_term=twsocialshare#story1"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/2019211120834453941)  2026-02-05T00:47Z 110.8K followers, [----] engagements


"Musings of the Day 2/5/26: Please take note today where the world is finding TRUE safety in a Correlation One market for Risk"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/2019439421712658935)  2026-02-05T15:54Z 110.8K followers, 10.6K engagements


"@KobeissiLetter Is that bad"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/2019464035704475860)  2026-02-05T17:32Z 110.8K followers, [----] engagements


"@Polymarket Is that bad"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/2019521552824643765)  2026-02-05T21:20Z 110.8K followers, [----] engagements


"@dampedspring I was able to build the Bloomberg CCRV tool in minutes using my friends last week. Setting up Urban Kaobot today. 🤠 Musings of the Day 1/29/26: I just witnessed live what Clawdbot can do and Im honestly scared what this will mean for society. For anyone who is worried about Inflation dont be. Thats all I gotta say. Musings of the Day 1/29/26: I just witnessed live what Clawdbot can do and Im honestly scared what this will mean for society. For anyone who is worried about Inflation dont be. Thats all I gotta say"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/2019775031430042015)  2026-02-06T14:07Z 110.8K followers, [----] engagements


"Here are [--] charts from @SarnaCapital that underscore many of the points Ive made in my recent interview about Americas Energy Achilles Heel and the Hydrocarbon dependency shifting to Natural Gas:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/2021592541238383096)  2026-02-11T14:29Z 110.9K followers, [----] engagements


"Musings of the Day 2/12/26: I've gone down deep into the OpenClaw/Claude Code rabbit hole over the last week which is why I've not been posting much. I would urge everyone to read the following treatise. It is long but worth the read. At first I thought it was hyperbolic in its comparison of AI being as disruptive as COVID but I am starting to see that AI's impact on society will be MUCH bigger and MUCH more significant. I am simply blown away by what I was able to learn and build in just one week and I can only imagine this effect writ large. If you've been worried about Inflation these last"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/2022120218940875198)  2026-02-13T01:26Z 110.9K followers, 40.9K engagements


"Musings of the Day 2/4/26: Is that bad #AIDisruption"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/2019054424958566559)  2026-02-04T14:24Z 110.9K followers, [----] engagements


"@hankburgnorcal I remember that era WELL. One of the hairiest Risk Arbs I played was the $ETEK / $JDSU merger. Also had huge Convertible Arb position In $LVLT and a Cap Arb in $GLBX Convertible Prefs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1960858369037885833)  2025-08-28T00:14Z 110.9K followers, [---] engagements


"Interview: Geopolitics/Macro - Energy Achilles' Heel Discussion on Monetary Matters Glad to be back with Max Wiethe on Monetary Matters to discuss my recent piece about the US Energy Achilles' Heel and the shift in hydrocarbon dependency from oil to natural gas. https://www.urbankaoboy.com/p/interview-geopoliticsmacro-energyr=jt0hj&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web https://www.urbankaoboy.com/p/interview-geopoliticsmacro-energyr=jt0hj&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/2010376557395890463)  2026-01-11T15:41Z 110.9K followers, 70K engagements


"Good segment with $CVX CEO Mike Wirth that touches upon a number of themes I've written about. Here are my takeaways: - OilCos posting record CF/production numbers despite low Oil prices. - Between more efficient extraction tech + Peace Black Swans breaking out in Oil-rich petrostates the rumors of an imminent "Permian rollover" might be exaggerated. - Hyperscalers co-locating "behind-the-meter" to Nat Gas basins to bypass grid transmission bottlenecks. - Supply/Demand Singularity (where Demand spike hits Inelastic Supply) seems to favor Natural Gas over Oil in the short to medium term."  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/2018444018292818059)  2026-02-02T21:58Z 110.9K followers, [----] engagements


"Musings of the Day 2/7/26: After just [--] hours of FAFO'ing with Urban KaoBOT I already managed to blow it up by creating an ever-expanding context window where it can't even say hello anymore without puking. Reminds me of my hacker days where similar FAFO'ing necessitated constant reinstallations of my computer along with endless streams of expletives 🤠🤬 https://www.youtube.com/shorts/DCPvfOQ0mv8 https://www.youtube.com/shorts/DCPvfOQ0mv8"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/2020286136745411070)  2026-02-07T23:58Z 110.9K followers, [----] engagements


"Musings of the Day 2/10/26: The reason why _Reminiscences of a Stock Operator_ from the early 1900's is still my favorite investment book of all time is that it is a constant reminder that while market dynamics change over time what is CONSTANT is human GREED & FEAR. The incredible FEAR in CLO Equity CEF's right now is something I've not seen since the depths of COVID and is largely due to misunderstandings of the underlying dynamics. CLO Equities themselves have been facing a highly unusual juxtaposition of NII compression (from Spread Compression due to too much CLO $ chasing too few"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/2021372287254135159)  2026-02-10T23:54Z 110.9K followers, 11.4K engagements


"My other Geopolitical AI thought: Now that Im burning through tokens like mad using even Sonnet [---] let alone Opus [---] Im wondering how these open source Chinese models like Kimi and Qwen can be 90% cheaper. Even though its not a fair apples-to-apples comparison on pure compute capability the COST-adjusted compute power seems to hand the win to the Chinese models and will make it very difficult for the US AI titans to meet ROI objectives. This is the new Chinese De-Industrializatiom Attack Vector: I have a strong feeling that China is pursuing the same top-down Runaway Assembly Line"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/2022156808131907956)  2026-02-13T03:52Z 110.9K followers, 11.6K engagements


"AI = Apex Predator of capital light businesses but the irony is that the Achilles Heel of the Apex Predator is that it requires cheap electricity. What if the only viable source of that Baseload is the same commodity that is experiencing demand pull from LNG exports It will be interesting to see how quickly that Apex Predator can ravage the capital light landscape before it runs out of cheap fuel to power itself. This will be the topic of the upcoming KAOS THEORY [--] which we recorded today. Stay tuned"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/2022161281877520601)  2026-02-13T04:09Z 110.9K followers, 12.1K engagements


"Well with respect I think your piece reads a bit alarmist and leaves out key facts: [--]. [----] CLO equity wipeouts were from static pools out of Reinvestment Period [--]. 2015-2016 era CLOs had much more sector and position concentration than todays CLOs which typically dont have positions bigger than 0.5% [--]. The self-healing nature of being able to reinvestment repayments during periods of credit stress is hugely accretive to CLO equity [--]. The recent distribution cuts have been due to SPREAD COMPRESSION not credit problems. People dont get that these structures are facing a highly unusual period"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/2022438261801779398)  2026-02-13T22:30Z 110.9K followers, [----] engagements


"Musings of the Day 2/14/26: Spending countless hours (and tokens) over the last week playing with both OpenClaw and Claude Code projects has really clarified one of the big challenges to AI: How to get enough work done in an acceptable context window before costs explode and results degrade. I feel like Im dealing with Ben Affleck in Memento where I have to constantly leave breadcrumbs for my AI agents to overcome a debilitating loss of daily memory and context. Playing with OpenClaw truly quantified this problem for me because I see the explicit token use and cost whereas this phenomenon is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/2022692571303018529)  2026-02-14T15:21Z 110.9K followers, [----] engagements


"Re: Oil-The Admins Kobayashi Maru. Despite pursuing a myriad of policy missteps that have simultaneously alienated OPEC+ and disincentivized investment in the domestic O&G space the Admin has embarked on an unwinnable rhetorical war against rising energy prices. (THREAD)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1461511395313262593)  2021-11-19T01:47Z 110.9K followers, [---] engagements


"Mental Models: Financial Assets As Levers It feels like the markets are about to encounter a major regime shift so I thought I would write about how I think about valuation frameworks around various asset classes and why its useful to model them as LEVERS. (THREAD)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1467174640162279425)  2021-12-04T16:51Z 110.9K followers, [---] engagements


"Re: Oil and the USD Wrecking Ball. A lot of my recent Musings have been around how surprising USD strength could be hugely destabilizing for certain parts of the world cough China. I am going to pull some of these thoughts together here. #Oil #USD (THREAD)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1471531050396307462)  2021-12-16T17:21Z 110.9K followers, [----] engagements


"Re: BTC/Oil/USD/MSTR-Tying It All Together & The Ummwut Umwelt This thread ties together [--] macro topics (1. BTC/Crypto [--]. Oil [--]. USD) that Ive been writing about to a micro topic (4. MSTR) Ive also written extensively about (4th MSTR installment). (LONG THREAD)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1487810116644532227)  2022-01-30T15:29Z 110.9K followers, [---] engagements


"How about calling a spade a spade Satoshis white paper came out in [----]. You know what else was invented in [----] ENDLESS QE as the panacea for every financial crisis. THE LIQUIDITY LOTTERY WAS BORN AT EXACTLY THE SAME TIME THAT BTC WAS BORN"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1487810135959359488)  2022-01-30T15:29Z 110.9K followers, [---] engagements


"Re: BTC/Crypto-Playing Jenga With The Ouroboros. Ive been an outspoken critic of the lack of intellectual rigor when it comes to Crypto valuations and how its easy to conflate real value with yet another product of the Liquidity Lottery. (THREAD)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1495560676005367808)  2022-02-21T00:47Z 110.9K followers, [---] engagements


"Sorry gold bugs but this is too funny to not share 🤣😂 H/t @kuwlness"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1501695066410262532)  2022-03-09T23:02Z 110.9K followers, [----] engagements


"Re: USD Wrecking Ball World Tour & The CNY Facade. Lots of hyperventilation lately over the weaponization of USD/imminent doom of USD hegemony as a result. While the de-dollarization narrative is seductive the USD remains the cleanest dirty shirt" around the world. (THREAD)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1503117588036874242)  2022-03-13T21:15Z 110.9K followers, [----] engagements


"Investing the Pelican Way: Spend most of the time chilling on posts/floating on waves but ALWAYS staying alert for opportunities. Expend time/energy VERY selectively; abort quickly when prospects arent great. Act swiftly/decisively ONLY when its damn near a sure thing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1511882758829838339)  2022-04-07T01:45Z 110.9K followers, [---] engagements


"Re: $MSTR-The Tail Wagging The $BTC Dog MSTR just reported Q1'22 Debt: Silvergate SOFR+3.7% due 3/23/35 -- $205 mm Senior Secured 6.125% due 6/15/28 -- $500 mm Convert 0.75% due 12/15/25 -- $650 mm Convert 0% due 2/15/27 -- $1050 mm (THREAD)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1521597692056522753)  2022-05-03T21:08Z 110.9K followers, [----] engagements


"Funny how every time I write about $MSTR/$BTC I get accused of spreading FUD. Never have I encountered such tribalistic zealotry regarding an investment. Sign of the times"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1521978040644907008)  2022-05-04T22:20Z 110.9K followers, [---] engagements


"Musing [--] of the Day: Someday in the not-too-distant-future I suspect we will look back upon this era of unprecedented Liquidity Lottery and think: Wow. People did some stupid shit and believed in it every step of the way. You are witnessing history in the making"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1523712934555181056)  2022-05-09T17:14Z 110.9K followers, [---] engagements


"Re: $BTC/Crypto: The Beginning of the End of the Liquidity Lottery. Ive been wanting to write a thread about BTC supply/demand for a while now. Here it is. (THREAD)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1526311908709502977)  2022-05-16T21:21Z 110.9K followers, [----] engagements


"Many immediately counter with arguments about how well the model has withstood the test of time. Heres the problem with that argument: BTC HAS NEVER EXISTED WITHOUT THE LIQUIDITY LOTTERY. https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1487810135959359488s=20&t=hVvxHQNykeBV7vlSP5tutQ How about calling a spade a spade Satoshis white paper came out in [----]. You know what else was invented in [----] ENDLESS QE as the panacea for every financial crisis. THE LIQUIDITY LOTTERY WAS BORN AT EXACTLY THE SAME TIME THAT BTC WAS BORN. https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1487810135959359488s=20&t=hVvxHQNykeBV7vlSP5tutQ How"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1526311916791943168)  2022-05-16T21:21Z 110.9K followers, [---] engagements


"What happens every time I write something expressing skepticism of BTC. https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1521978040644907008s=20&t=VEucbY_UolVOf9-r5KMQZQ Funny how every time I write about $MSTR/$BTC I get accused of spreading FUD. Never have I encountered such tribalistic zealotry regarding an investment. Sign of the times. https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1521978040644907008s=20&t=VEucbY_UolVOf9-r5KMQZQ Funny how every time I write about $MSTR/$BTC I get accused of spreading FUD. Never have I encountered such tribalistic zealotry regarding an investment. Sign of the times"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1526330970986582016)  2022-05-16T22:37Z 110.9K followers, [---] engagements


"Re: Inflation-"Ride of the Volkyries" Thoughts. Just read Zoltan Pozsar's excellent piece dated 5/13/22 and it corroborates a lot of my own views. Here are my thoughts. (MINI-THREAD)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1528416947007680512)  2022-05-22T16:46Z 110.9K followers, [---] engagements


"Musing of the Day: Bottoms arent put in when Ginsu Knife Juggling is still a popular sport rife with admonitions about how this is a fabulous opportunity. Bottoms are put in when Ginsu Knife Jugglers have lost their fingers and are begging for tourniquets"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1537296172943085570)  2022-06-16T04:49Z 110.9K followers, [---] engagements


"Re: Inflation-The Case for Bear Steepening/Why The Fed Wont Pivot Soon. Today I had a chat with @MacroAlf about various macro themes and I presented my case for why the Fed/Tsy might/ought to consider a BEAR STEEPENER as part of its QT arsenal. (LONG THREAD) #Inflation #Oil"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1540073781351182337)  2022-06-23T20:46Z 110.9K followers, [----] engagements


"Musing of the Day: In [----] my accountant of many years told me he was quitting his vocation to become a tech hedge fund manager. In [----] my sons barber of many years told him he quit his vocation to trade crypto full-time. History doesnt repeat but it sure rhymes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1540694216686198784)  2022-06-25T13:51Z 110.9K followers, [---] engagements


"Re: Geopolitics/Oil-Conversation With @vtchakarova. I had the pleasure of speaking with Velina today for almost [--] hours about several geopolitical topics ranging from Russia/Ukraine to China/Taiwan to Oil. I share some important takeaways below. (THREAD) #Oil #Geopolitics"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1544443843096875008)  2022-07-05T22:11Z 110.9K followers, [---] engagements


"@DoombergT Thats not gonna be good for their social scores"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1546266688320143363)  2022-07-10T22:54Z 110.9K followers, [---] engagements


"Im starting to think Fed policy is increasingly a geopolitical weapon masked by a convenient excuse to fight inflation. Multiple birds; one big-ass stone"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1547582876828372998)  2022-07-14T14:04Z 110.9K followers, [---] engagements


"Musing of the Day: As Im pondering what books to bring on vacation I notice theyre either about geopolitics markets/economics or biographies. Kinda sad that Im not drawn to fiction like I was when I was younger but whenever I read fiction I feel like Im wasting time"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1553748666862542848)  2022-07-31T14:25Z 110.9K followers, [---] engagements


"Musing [--] of the Day: Sorry to be so doomy on a Friday afternoon but I think something REALLY BAD is about to happen. Will be researching and maybe writing a thread this weekend"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1560749902853836800)  2022-08-19T22:05Z 110.9K followers, [---] engagements


"Re: Inflation/Macro-Asian Contagion [---] I wrote this at the beginning of this year to summarize my concerns for the macro setup. This thread delves deeper into Point #3 (LONG THREAD): https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1484278940600463360s=20&t=6Zd2Eid2H-4jZhtFyYsRkg Musing [--] of the Day: The setup: [--]. Stagflation/energy crisis not seen since 70s [--]. leading to tightening ahead of RoW [--]. creating USD Wrecking Ball reminiscent of 97-98 [--]. Everything Bubble that makes 00-01 pale [--]. Rising geopolitical tensions Buckle up😬😬😬"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1561061498323345408)  2022-08-20T18:43Z 110.9K followers, [----] engagements


"JPY levee is about to break. Note that we are approaching [----] levels"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1565146661315260416)  2022-09-01T01:16Z 110.9K followers, [---] engagements


"Re: Oil-Forward Curves & Holy Grails (or Lack Thereof). Been having many discussions on Twitter about the forward curve/time-spreads of Oil so I wanted to collate my thoughts into a coherent thread here. (THREAD)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1566235954452758528)  2022-09-04T01:25Z 110.9K followers, [----] engagements


"@elonmusk @wholemars You know whats a better battery for solar power The hydrocarbon molecule"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1567268631289163776)  2022-09-06T21:48Z 110.9K followers, [---] engagements


"It cracks me up that people fret over whether the Fed is going to deliver [--] or [---] bps next week. Kinda like analyzing tread thickness of the bulldozer about to run over your head"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1570419603691687937)  2022-09-15T14:29Z 110.9K followers, [---] engagements


"Musing of the Day: I've been an aggressive risk-taker throughout most of my career but every ounce of my gut is telling me to focus on return OF capital now vs. return ON capital"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1570772106992058371)  2022-09-16T13:50Z 110.9K followers, [---] engagements


"Re: Inflation/Real Estate-Around The World In [--] Minutes. Last week I participated in a private panel for global Real Estate entrepreneurs/investors. This thread summarizes some of my key learnings without attribution to specific speakers/firms. (THREAD)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1572356785117474821)  2022-09-20T22:47Z 110.9K followers, [----] engagements


"Re: Inflation/Geopolitics-Geopolitical Mosh Pits & Sovereign Debt Endgames Recent developments in the world have introduced an Every Man For Himself dynamic not just between adversaries but also between allies. Welcome to the Geopolitical Mosh Pit. (THREAD)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1578888215494156289)  2022-10-08T23:20Z 110.9K followers, [----] engagements


"Musings of the Day 10/16/22: When history looks back upon these last couple years will people laugh at how we thought we could just paper over a global pandemic that shut down 1/3 of global GDP with endless Liquidity Lottery and not expect any repercussions"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1581718915771641857)  2022-10-16T18:49Z 110.9K followers, [---] engagements


"Musings of the Day 10/28/22: Only Elon can massively overpay for a company at the top of the market expose to the world how shitty of a business it is while trying to back out and then walk in like a champ after he is forced to close. Hope he truly betters the platform"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1585965824027742208)  2022-10-28T12:04Z 110.9K followers, [---] engagements


"Musings of the Day 11/2/22: Unpopular view: I am looking forward to more gargantuan hikes so I can buy more T-Bills. TINA has died a horrible death"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1587802194778107906)  2022-11-02T13:41Z 110.9K followers, [---] engagements


"Musings of the Day 11/11/22: Early thoughts: - USD Wrecking Ball getting wrecked deeply is surprising to me on a fundamental level but not on a technical level given the steepness of ascent - The 1st slightly cool CPI print weirdly didn't capture the resurgence of Energy/OIL"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1591081686846279681)  2022-11-11T14:53Z 110.9K followers, [---] engagements


"I keep hearing the refrain This is healthy. The industry will come out stronger. Bullshit. Did Madoff make Ponzi finance healthier"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1591267674579177473)  2022-11-12T03:12Z 110.9K followers, [---] engagements


"@SBF_FTX https://youtu.be/qo5jnBJvGUs https://youtu.be/qo5jnBJvGUs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1591990547799232517)  2022-11-14T03:04Z 110.9K followers, [---] engagements


"Crypto Bubble vs. Dot Com Bubble: Similarities: Same hyperventilation: "Metcalfe's Law network effects S-Curve adoption." Differences: Dot Com Era focused on COMPANIES that could be DCF'd despite GIGO inputs. Crypto Bubble DOES NOT EVEN HAVE A LEGIT VALUATION FRAMEWORK"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1592905026833649665)  2022-11-16T15:38Z 110.9K followers, [---] engagements


"Re: Inflation/Real Estate-Train Wreck In Progress. Today I participated in a 2nd private panel for Real Estate investors/operators as the "macro guy." This thread focuses on US CRE sectors in both public and private markets. Chatham House Rules apply. (THREAD)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1593413297025429504)  2022-11-18T01:18Z 110.9K followers, [----] engagements


"@biancoresearch @EpsilonTheory Totally stunning that people/publications are willing to sully their reputations with this guy. MSM seems truly compromised"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1595813170186264578)  2022-11-24T16:14Z 110.9K followers, [---] engagements


"Musings of the Day 11/30/22: Boys and girls your first assignment today is to study this chart while listening to "When Doves Cry":"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1597959881318727680)  2022-11-30T14:24Z 110.9K followers, [---] engagements


"Setting up my new rig has been occupying my time lately but its coming along"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1600940104507265025)  2022-12-08T19:47Z 110.9K followers, [---] engagements


"👇👇👇 "DO NOT get sucked into the China narratives of 2-3 MBPD in [----] you will be disappointed like the gas-to-oil switching narrative of 3-4 MBPD.""  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1601274390145945600)  2022-12-09T17:55Z 110.9K followers, [--] engagements


"Musings of the Day 12/21/22: Is this how the mall is supposed to look [--] days before Christmas 🤔"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1605619774452420609)  2022-12-21T17:42Z 110.9K followers, 220K engagements


"Re: Oil-The Great Re-Opening (Or NOT) As I've been saying I would LOVE to be proven wrong on my ST bear view on Oil given my LT bull positioning but anyone betting on a big rebound based on the Great China Re-Opening needs to be very careful. (THREAD) https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1601274390145945600s=20&t=tgsEyW3mSV7rrfzAnjE03Q 👇👇👇 "DO NOT get sucked into the China narratives of 2-3 MBPD in [----] you will be disappointed like the gas-to-oil switching narrative of 3-4 MBPD." https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1601274390145945600s=20&t=tgsEyW3mSV7rrfzAnjE03Q 👇👇👇 "DO NOT get sucked into"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1605966105893163016)  2022-12-22T16:38Z 110.9K followers, 617.6K engagements


"Musings of the Day 1/10/23: The conviction in the Fed Pivot and the conviction in La Garde's conviction is starting to give me conviction in going the other way. I'm looking at you USD Wrecking Ball"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1613006472585285633)  2023-01-11T02:54Z 110.9K followers, 646.5K engagements


"Just a reminder that USD is dead predictions have been around a LONG time. Half these books are from the 1970s. @SantiagoAuFund"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1613633664839192577)  2023-01-12T20:27Z 110.9K followers, 58.3K engagements


"Musings of the Week 2/5/23: To paraphrase Samwise Gamgee "Well I'm back.""  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1622485146887929857)  2023-02-06T06:39Z 110.9K followers, 329.3K engagements


"First I just want to say a big THANK YOU to all my friends and supporters who lobbied for my reinstatement. Very kind of you all🙏"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1622485148183961600)  2023-02-06T06:39Z 110.9K followers, 36.4K engagements


"Musings of the Day 2/20/23: My son just told me his Nike Jordans he bought last year for $200 are now worth $2000. Thats all you need to know about the state of the economy and what the Fed is gonna do"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1627758117684658176)  2023-02-20T19:52Z 110.9K followers, 197.1K engagements


"It is finally out This is the paper I co-wrote & presented at West Point on 2/9/23 along with Lt. Cmdr. Mike St. Pierre of the Royal Canadian Navy @mik_sinclaire. It is entitled "USD Primacy in an Era of Economic Warfare." https://urbankaoboy.substack.com/p/west-point-paper-part-14 https://urbankaoboy.substack.com/p/west-point-paper-part-14"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1629495145002569734)  2023-02-25T14:54Z 110.9K followers, 686.7K engagements


"Musings of the Day 3/10/23: Interesting reaction today in DXY Bonds Gold. Mkt seems to be saying this $SIVB banking scare is going to lead to a SYSTEMIC banking crisis which would in turn lead to the Fed stopping in its tracks. I am NOT buying into this"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1634213725447106563)  2023-03-10T15:24Z 110.9K followers, 236.7K engagements


"Lets call a spade a spade shall we JPM on $SIVB: Out of SIVBs $173 billion of customer deposits at the end of [----] $152 billion were reportedly uninsured (i.e. over the $250000 FDIC insurance threshold) and only $4.8 billion were fully insured. It is fair to ask about the underwriting discipline of VC firms that put most of their liquidity in a single bank with this kind of deposit profile. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1634364321378729984 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1634364321378729984"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1634364321378729984)  2023-03-11T01:23Z 110.9K followers, 240.4K engagements


"Im warning yall right now: Gallows Humor is my specialty and I was a riot in [----]. Unfollow me NOW if youre easily offended"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1634387846391017474)  2023-03-11T02:56Z 110.9K followers, 36.4K engagements


"To all the FUDsters on $SCHW know this: [--]. Brokerage assets are segregated from banking assets (except at Shit Sandwiches like FTX). [--]. FDIC insured deposits at $SCHW are among the highest in banking -- 80% at $SCHW vs. 3% fully insured at $SIVB"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1634397301123993601)  2023-03-11T03:34Z 110.9K followers, 65.7K engagements


"To ascribe the demise of $SIVB as the fault of the Feds is like blaming Hannibal Lecters crimes on the lack of vegan options on the menu. Give me a fucking break.🤯"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1634403594823946241)  2023-03-11T03:59Z 110.9K followers, 119.9K engagements


"Re: Geopolitics/Inflation/USD-Ball In A China Shop. Today I divert your attention from the provincial woes of wayward Silicon Valley lenders to the REAL ticking time bomb of the global financial system -- China. https://urbankaoboy.substack.com/p/re-geopoliticsinflationusd-ball-in https://urbankaoboy.substack.com/p/re-geopoliticsinflationusd-ball-in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1634553780841881600)  2023-03-11T13:56Z 110.9K followers, 810.8K engagements


"Gave up. Simply cannot abide the hypocrisy of libertarian VCs begging for bailouts when they did no due diligence on who they/their startups are banking with"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1634725481764487169)  2023-03-12T01:18Z 110.9K followers, 22.1K engagements


"Dear Fed Pivoters When you zoom out and look at the Big Picture does this look like a picture of financial stress that derails what the Fed has been trying to do for the last [--] months It's as if people have completely forgotten the 2007-2008 period. This is NOWHERE CLOSE"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1635350157729611776)  2023-03-13T18:40Z 110.9K followers, 75.5K engagements


"Many think we've reached the point where the Fed is facing a real TRADEOFF between hiking vs. not hiking/easing. The SURGICAL nature of BTFP just ELIMINATED that tradeoff and the hot CPI just insured NO PIVOT imho"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1635621294308982784)  2023-03-14T12:37Z 110.9K followers, 61.8K engagements


"Musings of the Day 3/18/23: Do you detect a common underlying shared incentive among those decrying the Fed CATHIE WOOD SAYS THE FED NEEDS TO CUT RATES DRASTICALLY: FBN CATHIE WOOD SAYS THE FED NEEDS TO CUT RATES DRASTICALLY: FBN"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1637108482049720322)  2023-03-18T15:07Z 110.9K followers, 64.8K engagements


"Musings of the Day 3/22/23: Who will OUT-DOVE the Fed first US UK EU GDP: 3% 0% 0% Unemp: 3.6% 3.7% 6% CPI: 6% 10.4% 10% Count out the USD Wrecking Ball at your own risk"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1638546040445083650)  2023-03-22T14:19Z 110.9K followers, 116.2K engagements


"Musings of the Day 4/1/23: USD is doomed. Xi will rule the world. Fed Pivot next week. $BTC fixes everything"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1642162489512333312)  2023-04-01T13:50Z 110.9K followers, 86.6K engagements


"4/7/23 - Re: Geopolitics/Oil/USD - BRICS-a-Brac https://www.urbankaoboy.com/p/re-geopoliticsoilusd-brics-a-brac https://www.urbankaoboy.com/p/re-geopoliticsoilusd-brics-a-brac"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1644819136202309632)  2023-04-08T21:46Z 110.9K followers, 501.6K engagements


"Musings of the Day 5/13/23: The current state of BRICS: R & I dont get along anymore. I & C have never gotten along. R & C only have a tryst of convenience but Putin doesnt like being Xis bitch and Xi remembers when Mao was Stalins bitch. All thats really left is BS. 4/7/23 - Re: Geopolitics/Oil/USD - BRICS-a-Brac https://t.co/4hCfFsfo6I 4/7/23 - Re: Geopolitics/Oil/USD - BRICS-a-Brac https://t.co/4hCfFsfo6I"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1657352175041822721)  2023-05-13T11:48Z 110.9K followers, 400.4K engagements


"I normally like to drop my Substacks over the weekend but because I'm heading to BottleRock Napa tomorrow for the long weekend here it is NOW. Re: Oil-Thesis Recap & The Supply/Demand Singularity Revisited. https://www.urbankaoboy.com/p/re-oil-deep-dive-and-the-supplydemandsd=pf https://www.urbankaoboy.com/p/re-oil-deep-dive-and-the-supplydemandsd=pf"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1661564182041612288)  2023-05-25T02:45Z 110.9K followers, 308.4K engagements


"I am very excited to announce a new podcast series that @ttmygh and I are collaborating on It is entitled KAOS THEORY and focuses on the intersection of Macroeconomics and Geopolitics in an increasingly disorderly world. Episode 1: https://open.substack.com/pub/urbankaoboy/p/kaos-theory-episode-1-michael-str=jt0hj&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web https://open.substack.com/pub/urbankaoboy/p/kaos-theory-episode-1-michael-str=jt0hj&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1667956450780643328)  2023-06-11T18:06Z 110.9K followers, 181.4K engagements


"@ATRightMovies One of my all-time favorite movies. Best quote: I've seen things you people wouldn't believe. Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion. I watched C-beams glitter in the dark near the Tannhuser Gate. All those moments will be lost in time like tears in rain"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1672971333834244096)  2023-06-25T14:13Z 110.9K followers, 90.7K engagements


"Please study this chart. It just might save your Net Worth. Up Arrow ranges show magnitude of Rate Hikes. Down Arrow ranges show magnitude of nearest corrections. To the Chuck Princes of the world who think markets will let them off this train gracefully good luck"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1684372435708289024)  2023-07-27T01:17Z 110.9K followers, 92.9K engagements


"Musings of the Day 9/22/23: We are just now hitting average 10Y yields since [----] which illustrates in stark relief the dangers of Recency Bias and just how spoiled weve become. Chart h/t DB"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1705207097821196395)  2023-09-22T13:07Z 110.9K followers, 125.7K engagements


"@paulkrugman What an awesome result for folks who dont eat use energy pay rent/mortgage or need to get around. 👏👏👏"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1712563198220808433)  2023-10-12T20:17Z 110.9K followers, 44.4K engagements


"My new post is out: Re: Macro/USD/Oil - The Battle of the BADS. A tour of the key Scylla/Charybdis Dilemmas facing major policymakers on the world stage. As you will see the policy choices in most cases are between BAD and BADDER a true BATTLE OF THE BADS. https://www.urbankaoboy.com/p/re-macrousdoil-the-battle-of-the https://www.urbankaoboy.com/p/re-macrousdoil-the-battle-of-the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1776602241493073990)  2024-04-06T13:25Z 110.9K followers, 375.1K engagements


"@lexfridman Im telling you its not a good idea"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1802871290585575529)  2024-06-18T01:09Z 110.9K followers, 14.8K engagements


"@BillAckman When CONTROL ALT DELETE doesnt work you gotta pull the plug for a hard boot"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1806515867586551983)  2024-06-28T02:32Z 110.9K followers, 205.4K engagements


"@CollinRugg Thanks to @elonmusk for bringing some balance for a change. Hate speech and disinformation Think there was more policy content in this fireside chat than the entire [--] last years"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1823184262327390277)  2024-08-13T02:26Z 110.9K followers, 18.1K engagements


"Musings of the Day 4/6/25: There were [--] keys Lessons I learned from Trump 1.0: Lesson 1: Mosh Pit Theorem -- make others believe you're crazy and even bigger guys won't fuck with you (I've personally used this at Slayer concerts). Lesson 2: Art of the Deal -- open any negotiation with an outrageous ask with the intention of settling right on the original goal. Imho you can either buy into the notion that the entire Trump [---] Economic Team fucked up the Tariff formulas by accident and make linear extrapolations that it will bring about another Great Depression or you can remember the Trump 1.0"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1908883383935197190)  2025-04-06T14:03Z 110.9K followers, 145.1K engagements


"Musings of the Day 4/8/25: There is no better evidence of Chinas Top-Down GDP Targeted Economy than this. This is NOT Globalization based on Comparative Advantage between countries. This is a Runaway Assembly Line that churns out an endless stream of goods regardless of economic losses or demand because China needs to keep its restive masses employed and it can no longer to do so by building ghost cities and bridges to nowhere. Its fine and dandy when the $21T US Consumer was waving it all in but eventually that gravy train had to stop given the resultant atrophy of Americas industrial"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1909222465420865710)  2025-04-07T12:31Z 110.9K followers, 196.4K engagements


"Musings of the Day 4/12/25: Naysayers will be quick to say that Trump is caving again even as they are equally wont to criticizing the Admin for being intransigent cant have it both ways. There is an extremely important Economic Statecraft objective here to wean the US off China dependencies without tanking the Economy. One of the keys to this negotiation is to preserve leverage while extending a face-saving off-ramp for Xi at the same time which was my biggest concern. Chatted with Lakshmi this am and she thinks that the newly announced Tariff exclusions likely cover only 8-10% of total"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1911059526968840491)  2025-04-12T14:11Z 110.9K followers, 95.7K engagements


"Musings of the Day 4/21/25: Translation: If your country wants to remain beholden to us on Critical Path Supply Chains be ok with forced Tech Transfer and IP Theft be ok with evisceration of your Industrial Capacity because of Chinas Runaway Assembly Line that is not based on Comparative Advantage be ok with OBOR-style Debt Trap coercion just to name a few reasons then by all means you should choose China in this Balkanization of Trade Blocs. The US may not be perfect but it is a far cry from China"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1914296112372158492)  2025-04-21T12:32Z 110.9K followers, 57.6K engagements


"Musings of the Day 4/26/25: What's worse than the Hotel California Hotel China of course -- this is really a gift for the US because it tells you that doing business in China now has untenable business risks. As if Forced Tech Transfers IP Theft Asymmetric Tariffs/Trade Barriers were not enough to deter foreigners the fact that you can check in but CANNOT CHECK OUT should send chills down the spine of every CEO doing business in China. h/t @TheMichaelEvery"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1916127515980271813)  2025-04-26T13:49Z 110.9K followers, 39.4K engagements


"Musings of the Day 4/28/25: As I am Chinese by descent I get the whole angle of Chinese national pride in being able to (Eat Bitterness) and endure hardship. But the math is the math. When your entire economy is based upon keeping the Runaway Assembly Line humming not because of Economic Profit or Demand but because THERE IS NO OTHER WAY TO KEEP THE MASSES EMPLOYED it really behooves you to find a way to make good with the US Consumer that buys 35% of GLOBAL CONSUMPTION. Talking with my Retailer CEO friends PERMANENT decisions to relocate Supply Chains out of China are being made with every"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1916864817224360315)  2025-04-28T14:39Z 110.9K followers, 213.8K engagements


"Musings of the Day 1/19/26: Realpolitik doesnt care about feelings. Realpolitik cares about both economic and military leverage among other factors. As my Canadian friend @SarnaCapital lays out in his Substack this am Carneys choice to embrace China whether symbolic or not is asymmetrically bad for Canada. The economic self-immolation speaks for itself. The MUCH bigger deal however is whether or not this pivot makes the US feel that Canada is now a backdoor for China and thus a GEOPOLITICAL THREAT on our northern border. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013245788877459962"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/2013245788877459962)  2026-01-19T13:42Z 110.9K followers, 63K engagements


"Musing [--] of the Day: For those cheering the WSB short assault mob be careful what you wish for. When short-selling was banned in [----] bona fide hedgers could no longer short equity against their portfolios.contd"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1355013567011975170)  2021-01-29T04:43Z 110.9K followers, [----] engagements


"Musing [--] of the Day: The setup: [--]. Stagflation/energy crisis not seen since 70s [--]. leading to tightening ahead of RoW [--]. creating USD Wrecking Ball reminiscent of 97-98 [--]. Everything Bubble that makes 00-01 pale [--]. Rising geopolitical tensions Buckle up😬😬😬"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1484278940600463360)  2022-01-20T21:37Z 110.9K followers, [---] engagements


"Re: Oil-Trying To Cut Through The Noise. I've been quiet on oil in recent weeks given the lack of edge in forecasting anything given Ukraine/Russia wildcards + China wildcards. Cap One provided some useful data points today in a client call which I will summarize below. (THREAD)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1519463344175939584)  2022-04-27T23:47Z 110.9K followers, [---] engagements


"Musing of the Day: Telling the Fed to stop QT because "inflation is peaking" is akin to telling a cop to let someone going [---] mph off the hook because "acceleration has peaked." SECOND derivatives don't matter when the FIRST derivative is very high"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1522194651205099521)  2022-05-05T12:41Z 110.9K followers, [---] engagements


"Re: Inflation-Demographics & Secular Stagflation. I've been mulling a thread on Demographics for some time but @josephwang beat me to it and did a great job. I build upon his thoughts here. (THREAD) https://x.com/FedGuy12/status/1549051802389454848s=20&t=4IeOsYk7VUxQnJV55Uf_Yw A declining labor force from aging may imply secular inflation and change the policy reaction function to inflation and recession. This post reviews the theory behind aging and inflation looks at pandemic retirements and notes the policy implications https://t.co/HjoYodj2Sp"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1549133903281004545)  2022-07-18T20:47Z 110.9K followers, [---] engagements


"Re: Inflation/USD Wrecking Ball-Who's Gonna Out-Hawk the Fed When I think about the relative capacities for CB's to embrace "Higher For Longer" policies I still don't think anyone can out-hawk the Fed. (MINI-THREAD) https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1613006472585285633s=20&t=em-4jCbkEpqKQW682gkxVA Musings of the Day 1/10/23: The conviction in the Fed Pivot and the conviction in La Garde's conviction is starting to give me conviction in going the other way. I'm looking at you USD Wrecking Ball. https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1613006472585285633s=20&t=em-4jCbkEpqKQW682gkxVA Musings of the Day"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1613279643754463232)  2023-01-11T21:00Z 110.9K followers, 577.2K engagements


"@INArteCarloDoss Its honestly amazing to me that so many asset classes are pricing in an imminent Pivot. This next Rug Pull is gonna hurt"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1635853481776152576)  2023-03-15T04:00Z 110.9K followers, 31.9K engagements


"Musings of the Day 4/7/23: Sad day folks. Elon has declared all-out war on Substack and is not allowing likes/retweets/comments/pins of anything Substack related. Pretty hypocritical for Mr. Free Speech and more than a little insecure"  
[X Link](https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1644359469139378177)  2023-04-07T15:20Z 110.9K followers, 123.6K engagements

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