[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]  Henry [@HenryInvests](/creator/twitter/HenryInvests) on x 4881 followers Created: 2025-07-12 18:16:27 UTC 🚨The Upstart $UPST Trustpilot Index #UTPI remains near all-time highs🚨7/12/25 Update The 28d moving average for Upstart Trustpilot reviews currently sits at 31.07, up XXXX% since the start of Q2, up XXXX% from January 1st and is currently sitting near all-time highs. Here are total review counts for the last few quarters: Q3 '24: XXXXX Q4 '24: XXXXX +35.8% Q1 '25: XXXXX +4.1% Q2 '25: XXXXX +37.2% Q3 '25E: XXXXX +21.0% A very preliminary linear regression estimate predicts Upstart will post XXXXX Trustpilot reviews in Q3, marking XX% q/q growth and showing continued momentum coming out of what was a monster Q2 for #UTPI. Here are the review count totals for the first XX days of each quarter: Q3 '24: XXX Q4 '24: XXX +73.1% Q1 '25: XXX +12.1% Q2 '25: XXX +17.3% Q3 '25: XXX +48.0% Q3 is kicking off with the strongest review momentum seen since the start of the Upstart Trustpilot Era! For those interested in my thoughts on Q2 (the quarter Upstart will be reporting on August 5) please read my last #UTPI review where I cover the quarter in depth. For Q3, keep in mind that everything I am talking about today is very, very preliminary. This can change quickly. But for now, it appears as if Upstart's strong Q2 momentum has continued into the start of Q3. Just XX days into the quarter, Upstart has XXX reviews. Linear regression estimates predict Upstart will post XXXXX reviews for Q3. With XX days left in the quarter, Upstart needs to average XXXXX reviews/day to meet this estimate. ((2,931-401)/81) The current 28d moving average for Upstart Trustpilot Reviews is XXXXX. Put simply, if Upstart sustains its current Trustpilot review pace, it will reach the XXXXX review target, representing XX% q/q growth after Q2’s 37%, without any further lift in the 28-day moving average. Revenue (in thousands): Q3 '24: $XXXXXXX Q4 '24: $XXXXXXX +35.1% (reviews +35.8%) Q1 '25: $XXXXXXX -XXX% (reviews +2.2%) Q2 '25: ??? (reviews +37.2%) Q3 '25: ??? (reviews est. +21.0%) There is a clear correlation between review growth and revenue growth which I've been attempting to quantify over the last year. For those unfamiliar with my work, I highly encourage you to read these articles on my methodology. With that said, please remember this is not financial advice and the numbers are extremely preliminary. Below are the Q3 2025 revenue projections from my Upstart IQ model. For each scenario (Conservative, Baseline, and Aggressive), the Q2 estimates are unchanged from the last #UTPI update. 1.) Conservative Scenario This scenario assumes the review rate rises by X basis points to 0.90%, while revenue per loan declines XX% q/q. For context, the Q2 estimate reflected an 11-basis point increase in the review rate and the same XX% drop in revenue per loan to account for concerns over prime diluting margins. These inputs produce an estimated ~$236 million in Q3 revenue, which I view as a well-founded conservative case. 2.) Baseline Scenario This scenario assumes the review rate rises by X basis points to 0.84%, while revenue per loan declines X% q/q. For context, the Q2 estimate reflected a 5-basis point increase in the review rate and the same X% drop in revenue per loan to account for concerns over prime diluting margins. These inputs produce an estimated ~$282 million in Q3 revenue. 3.) Aggressive Scenario This scenario assumes the review rate rises by X basis points to 0.82%, while revenue per loan falls X% q/q to reflect concerns around prime margin dilution. For context, the Q2 estimate reflected a 3-basis point increase in the review rate and a constant revenue per loan. These inputs produce an estimated ~$304 million in Q3 revenue. Keep in mind, I did not even run a scenario in which the review rate decreased, or revenue per loan increased. This provides us with a range of Q3 revenue outcomes of $236m-$304m. You can sort of think of this range as a bell-curve probability distribution. The tails on both ends probably have an extremely small chance of occurring (say 5%), with the most plausible outcome likely near the midpoint of ~ $270m. FWIW, per Yahoo Finance, analysts expect $269m in Q3 revenue for Upstart. Please keep in mind this methodology is far from perfect. There are a LOT of uncertainties here. For instance, adjusting review rate really, really impacts the model and serves almost as an elastic band. I am not aiming to predict a perfect revenue figure. Rather, I am trying to test several hypotheses to arrive a reasonable range of possible revenue outcomes. That range, to me, appears to be $236m-$304m and probably looks like (and has the probabilities of) a bell curve. Upstart did $213m in Q1 (+67% Y/Y) revenue and as of today I think they can do ~ $250m in Q2 (+96% Y/Y) and ~ $280m in Q3 (+73% Y/Y), which would lift year-to-date revenue to roughly $743m (+78% Y/Y). That leaves only about $258m needed in Q4 for Upstart to hit their $1.01B guidance (+57% Y/Y). It seems very possible Upstart could do $1.1B in revenue this year, surpassing their initial guidance of $1.01B, and that topline growth should also result in profitability. 🐰🎩 #UTPI  XXXXXX engagements  **Related Topics** [alltime](/topic/alltime) [$upst](/topic/$upst) [Post Link](https://x.com/HenryInvests/status/1944098545432137733)
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Henry @HenryInvests on x 4881 followers
Created: 2025-07-12 18:16:27 UTC
🚨The Upstart $UPST Trustpilot Index #UTPI remains near all-time highs🚨7/12/25 Update The 28d moving average for Upstart Trustpilot reviews currently sits at 31.07, up XXXX% since the start of Q2, up XXXX% from January 1st and is currently sitting near all-time highs.
Here are total review counts for the last few quarters: Q3 '24: XXXXX Q4 '24: XXXXX +35.8% Q1 '25: XXXXX +4.1% Q2 '25: XXXXX +37.2% Q3 '25E: XXXXX +21.0%
A very preliminary linear regression estimate predicts Upstart will post XXXXX Trustpilot reviews in Q3, marking XX% q/q growth and showing continued momentum coming out of what was a monster Q2 for #UTPI.
Here are the review count totals for the first XX days of each quarter: Q3 '24: XXX Q4 '24: XXX +73.1% Q1 '25: XXX +12.1% Q2 '25: XXX +17.3% Q3 '25: XXX +48.0%
Q3 is kicking off with the strongest review momentum seen since the start of the Upstart Trustpilot Era!
For those interested in my thoughts on Q2 (the quarter Upstart will be reporting on August 5) please read my last #UTPI review where I cover the quarter in depth.
For Q3, keep in mind that everything I am talking about today is very, very preliminary. This can change quickly. But for now, it appears as if Upstart's strong Q2 momentum has continued into the start of Q3.
Just XX days into the quarter, Upstart has XXX reviews. Linear regression estimates predict Upstart will post XXXXX reviews for Q3. With XX days left in the quarter, Upstart needs to average XXXXX reviews/day to meet this estimate. ((2,931-401)/81)
The current 28d moving average for Upstart Trustpilot Reviews is XXXXX.
Put simply, if Upstart sustains its current Trustpilot review pace, it will reach the XXXXX review target, representing XX% q/q growth after Q2’s 37%, without any further lift in the 28-day moving average.
Revenue (in thousands):
Q3 '24: $XXXXXXX Q4 '24: $XXXXXXX +35.1% (reviews +35.8%) Q1 '25: $XXXXXXX -XXX% (reviews +2.2%) Q2 '25: ??? (reviews +37.2%) Q3 '25: ??? (reviews est. +21.0%)
There is a clear correlation between review growth and revenue growth which I've been attempting to quantify over the last year. For those unfamiliar with my work, I highly encourage you to read these articles on my methodology.
With that said, please remember this is not financial advice and the numbers are extremely preliminary. Below are the Q3 2025 revenue projections from my Upstart IQ model. For each scenario (Conservative, Baseline, and Aggressive), the Q2 estimates are unchanged from the last #UTPI update.
1.) Conservative Scenario This scenario assumes the review rate rises by X basis points to 0.90%, while revenue per loan declines XX% q/q. For context, the Q2 estimate reflected an 11-basis point increase in the review rate and the same XX% drop in revenue per loan to account for concerns over prime diluting margins. These inputs produce an estimated ~$236 million in Q3 revenue, which I view as a well-founded conservative case.
2.) Baseline Scenario This scenario assumes the review rate rises by X basis points to 0.84%, while revenue per loan declines X% q/q. For context, the Q2 estimate reflected a 5-basis point increase in the review rate and the same X% drop in revenue per loan to account for concerns over prime diluting margins. These inputs produce an estimated ~$282 million in Q3 revenue.
3.) Aggressive Scenario This scenario assumes the review rate rises by X basis points to 0.82%, while revenue per loan falls X% q/q to reflect concerns around prime margin dilution. For context, the Q2 estimate reflected a 3-basis point increase in the review rate and a constant revenue per loan. These inputs produce an estimated ~$304 million in Q3 revenue.
Keep in mind, I did not even run a scenario in which the review rate decreased, or revenue per loan increased.
This provides us with a range of Q3 revenue outcomes of $236m-$304m. You can sort of think of this range as a bell-curve probability distribution. The tails on both ends probably have an extremely small chance of occurring (say 5%), with the most plausible outcome likely near the midpoint of ~ $270m. FWIW, per Yahoo Finance, analysts expect $269m in Q3 revenue for Upstart.
Please keep in mind this methodology is far from perfect. There are a LOT of uncertainties here. For instance, adjusting review rate really, really impacts the model and serves almost as an elastic band.
I am not aiming to predict a perfect revenue figure. Rather, I am trying to test several hypotheses to arrive a reasonable range of possible revenue outcomes. That range, to me, appears to be $236m-$304m and probably looks like (and has the probabilities of) a bell curve.
Upstart did $213m in Q1 (+67% Y/Y) revenue and as of today I think they can do ~ $250m in Q2 (+96% Y/Y) and ~ $280m in Q3 (+73% Y/Y), which would lift year-to-date revenue to roughly $743m (+78% Y/Y). That leaves only about $258m needed in Q4 for Upstart to hit their $1.01B guidance (+57% Y/Y).
It seems very possible Upstart could do $1.1B in revenue this year, surpassing their initial guidance of $1.01B, and that topline growth should also result in profitability.
🐰🎩 #UTPI
XXXXXX engagements
