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![neilksethi Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:24/cr:twitter::2252413050.png) Neil Sethi [@neilksethi](/creator/twitter/neilksethi) on x 12.4K followers
Created: 2025-05-21 16:21:47 UTC

JPM: Assuming XX% [tariffs] on China and XX% elsewhere (and with sector tariffs), we now estimate an effective ex-ante tariff rate of XXXX% (Figure 3). This is akin to an ex-ante $430bn tax hike on US households and businesses, worth XXX% of GDP. Combined with a baseline that already saw growth slowing this year with fading fiscal and immigration supports, the sentiment shock to date, US GDP is expected to expand just XXXX% SAAR in 2H25 (Figure 4). With recession being averted and core inflation still jumping to XXX% this year, we now see the Fed on hold until December with another X cuts next year. Overall, we see global GDP expanding XXX% (4Q/4Q), upward revised XXX% ... but still nearly a %-point below potential

![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GrfGZ7RXsAImjJZ.png)

XXXXX engagements

![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/p:tweet::1925225518758080713/c:line.svg)

**Related Topics**
[Sentiment](/topic/sentiment)
[gdp](/topic/gdp)
[tax bracket](/topic/tax-bracket)
[$430bn](/topic/$430bn)
[china](/topic/china)
[tariffs](/topic/tariffs)
[jpm](/topic/jpm)

[Post Link](https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1925225518758080713)