[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]  Ray Wang [@rwang07](/creator/twitter/rwang07) on x 14.1K followers Created: 2025-04-17 02:24:52 UTC XX key takeaways from trip to China by Danske Bank (April 16). Lead anlayst of this report offers key insights and on-ground observation on Chinese Economy, Technology, Tariffs, Monetary/Fiscal Policy, Apple ($AAPL), Tesla ($TSLA), Supply Chain, Real Estate, and Consumption. Only put brief summary to keep it short (relatively): X. China prepared to fight: - As should be clear by now, China is prepared for a fight and not in a rush to enter talks. - From the point of view in China, Trump is hurting the US as much as he is hurting China. - A thing you hear again and again is that the trade war is really about US containment of China. - I didn’t hear anyone expect China to sell US Treasuries X. Stronger self-confidence: - Compared to my previous China visit 1½ years ago, it was clear that China had become more self-confident. The ‘DeepSeek moment’ was highlighted by everyone as a key milestone giving Chinese people, a stronger sense that China was on track to become more self-reliant and could not be held back by the US - An interesting view in China, is also that China might gain in the long term from the short-term pain because it forces China to focus even more on doing its’ own home work: take stronger measures to make market reforms, push even harder to support private consumption and do even more to unite forces to boost Chinese technology level - Another long-term gain from Trump’s new super charged America First policy is China gaining influence on the global chess board. - Along the same lines, I had many discussions on whether we could see a reset of EU- China relations. The feeling is that there is a new window of opportunity, and we do indeed see a softening of the tone from both sides X. Highly disruptive trade effects short term: - The continued climb up the tariff ladder to above XXX% between US and China means trade will more or less stop except in the areas where Trump made exemptions - Some companies I met had already seen cancellation of orders, and that was even before the latest tariff increases. US importers are expected to halt imports where possible as tariffs should eventually come down during talks. That could lead to empty shelves of some products in the US when inventories are empty (the joke is about the US not getting any Christmas decorations this year as more than XX% is imported from China) X. More stimulus, but no devaluation: - Everyone expects China to expand stimulus further this year as already signalled by the government. China will still do go after hitting the X% growth target, even though there is acknowledgement it will be very diffucult. - Monetary policy is also likely be eased soon. However, no one I talked to expected a devaluation. X. No consumer boycott, and Elon Musk still a hero I asked many Chinese about the scope for a boycott of US goods but no one saw that coming. It surprised me a bit given that China is being hit with of tariffs and other types of tech sanctions. But most Chinese people are actually not angry X. Apple and Tesla last in line to be hit - However, sentiment is they are likely to be last in line. China needs innovative foreign companies and don’t want to scare them away. - In areas where China sees a benefit of having foreign companies, they are unlikely to hurt them. Apple employs thousands of Chinese workers as does Tesla and they provide competition for Chinese companies and strengthen a highly innovative environment - A big fall in foreign investments into China has been a big concern I was told, which is also why there has been a big charm offensive towards big multinationals strong in the tech area. X. European companies sees both risks and opportunities - There is an obvious concern about the short-term decline in activity and cancellation of orders due to the trade war and possibly global recession - There is going to be a lot of focus on optimising supply chains and work is ongoing to reroute where possible as we go along with changes in tariffs. - Interestingly, a sentiment poll in Q1 of Danish businesses in China also showed the highest sentiment in five years so there seemed to be more optimism coming back about the Chinese market after some tough years with covid lockdowns and deep housing crisis X. Housing confidence improved but problem not solved: - Overall confidence about the economy had improved when it came to housing compared to my last visit in 2023. Not that it is booming in any way but many mentioned signs of stability in not least the big cities - It also suggests that there is indeed some pent-up demand with many home buyers are sitting on the fence but ready to buy when there is stabilisation in the market. - There are still many challenges in the housing market, though, and especially in lower-tier cities sentiment is still bad and a lot of empty housing continues to be a big drag - House prices for March released this morning also showed a new decline when adjusted for seasonality. - There is generally a need for the central government to step up measures to buy up vacant housing and speed up urbanization through Hukou reform that could improve rights of the XXX million migrant workers in China working in the cities - Beijing acknowledges this but there is scepticism they will do enough to also improve incentives for local governments to actually implement the reform, because it is costly as it raises social costs. Beijing needs to provide more financing for this to succeed X. China’s fast tech development to continue: - The first thing that comes up talking about tech is the ‘Deep Seek moment’, which as mentioned above has given a big moral boost. But other tech breakthroughs were also highlighted in a discussion I had with a tech analyst - Companies would likely be quick to implement AI in their production optimisation and improving their edge here. - Focus is not only on catching up to the best technology. It is also to get the most out of the technology already at hand and adopt a ‘good-enough’ approach. - Another focus is to leap frog in new areas and create the technologies of the future. China has not had much success in the past of this kind of ‘original innovation’, also called 0-1 innovation, but instead been good at 1-n innovation through improving production processes - China already lead in research of many of these areas and more money is directed towards AI and other tech industries to get research translated into actual commercial breakthroughs. A new state AI fund of USD8.2 bn is set to direct money to strengthen the domestic AI ecosystem and reduce reliance of US semiconductor companies like Nvidia. XX. Lifting private consumption is a major task: - China has highlighted the need for more consumption driven growth for more than a decade so you could wonder why we should take it serious now? - When I asked a chief economist from a big Chinese investment bank this question, his reply came promptly “because it is urgent now”. His point was, that it had never really been urgent before because China could grow through investments and exports. But that is no longer the case - China needs more growth from private consumption now, also to create more balance with key trade partners like the EU - China also needs stronger consumption to fight deflationary pressures. So, it has never really been as urgent as it is now  XXXXX engagements  **Related Topics** [coins real estate](/topic/coins-real-estate) [$tsla](/topic/$tsla) [tariffs](/topic/tariffs) [$danskeco](/topic/$danskeco) [china](/topic/china) [stocks technology](/topic/stocks-technology) [$aapl](/topic/$aapl) [tesla](/topic/tesla) [Post Link](https://x.com/rwang07/status/1912693713605636252)
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Ray Wang @rwang07 on x 14.1K followers
Created: 2025-04-17 02:24:52 UTC
XX key takeaways from trip to China by Danske Bank (April 16). Lead anlayst of this report offers key insights and on-ground observation on Chinese Economy, Technology, Tariffs, Monetary/Fiscal Policy, Apple ($AAPL), Tesla ($TSLA), Supply Chain, Real Estate, and Consumption.
Only put brief summary to keep it short (relatively):
X. China prepared to fight:
As should be clear by now, China is prepared for a fight and not in a rush to enter talks.
From the point of view in China, Trump is hurting the US as much as he is hurting China.
A thing you hear again and again is that the trade war is really about US containment of China.
I didn’t hear anyone expect China to sell US Treasuries
X. Stronger self-confidence:
Compared to my previous China visit 1½ years ago, it was clear that China had become more self-confident. The ‘DeepSeek moment’ was highlighted by everyone as a key milestone giving Chinese people, a stronger sense that China was on track to become more self-reliant and could not be held back by the US
An interesting view in China, is also that China might gain in the long term from the short-term pain because it forces China to focus even more on doing its’ own home work: take stronger measures to make market reforms, push even harder to support private consumption and do even more to unite forces to boost Chinese technology level
Another long-term gain from Trump’s new super charged America First policy is China gaining influence on the global chess board.
Along the same lines, I had many discussions on whether we could see a reset of EU- China relations. The feeling is that there is a new window of opportunity, and we do indeed see a softening of the tone from both sides
X. Highly disruptive trade effects short term:
The continued climb up the tariff ladder to above XXX% between US and China means trade will more or less stop except in the areas where Trump made exemptions
Some companies I met had already seen cancellation of orders, and that was even before the latest tariff increases. US importers are expected to halt imports where possible as tariffs should eventually come down during talks. That could lead to empty shelves of some products in the US when inventories are empty (the joke is about the US not getting any Christmas decorations this year as more than XX% is imported from China)
X. More stimulus, but no devaluation:
Everyone expects China to expand stimulus further this year as already signalled by the government. China will still do go after hitting the X% growth target, even though there is acknowledgement it will be very diffucult.
Monetary policy is also likely be eased soon. However, no one I talked to expected a devaluation.
X. No consumer boycott, and Elon Musk still a hero
I asked many Chinese about the scope for a boycott of US goods but no one saw that coming. It surprised me a bit given that China is being hit with of tariffs and other types of tech sanctions. But most Chinese people are actually not angry
X. Apple and Tesla last in line to be hit
However, sentiment is they are likely to be last in line. China needs innovative foreign companies and don’t want to scare them away.
In areas where China sees a benefit of having foreign companies, they are unlikely to hurt them. Apple employs thousands of Chinese workers as does Tesla and they provide competition for Chinese companies and strengthen a highly innovative environment
A big fall in foreign investments into China has been a big concern I was told, which is also why there has been a big charm offensive towards big multinationals strong in the tech area.
X. European companies sees both risks and opportunities
There is an obvious concern about the short-term decline in activity and cancellation of orders due to the trade war and possibly global recession
There is going to be a lot of focus on optimising supply chains and work is ongoing to reroute where possible as we go along with changes in tariffs.
Interestingly, a sentiment poll in Q1 of Danish businesses in China also showed the highest sentiment in five years so there seemed to be more optimism coming back about the Chinese market after some tough years with covid lockdowns and deep housing crisis
X. Housing confidence improved but problem not solved:
Overall confidence about the economy had improved when it came to housing compared to my last visit in 2023. Not that it is booming in any way but many mentioned signs of stability in not least the big cities
It also suggests that there is indeed some pent-up demand with many home buyers are sitting on the fence but ready to buy when there is stabilisation in the market.
There are still many challenges in the housing market, though, and especially in lower-tier cities sentiment is still bad and a lot of empty housing continues to be a big drag
House prices for March released this morning also showed a new decline when adjusted for seasonality.
There is generally a need for the central government to step up measures to buy up vacant housing and speed up urbanization through Hukou reform that could improve rights of the XXX million migrant workers in China working in the cities
Beijing acknowledges this but there is scepticism they will do enough to also improve incentives for local governments to actually implement the reform, because it is costly as it raises social costs. Beijing needs to provide more financing for this to succeed
X. China’s fast tech development to continue:
The first thing that comes up talking about tech is the ‘Deep Seek moment’, which as mentioned above has given a big moral boost. But other tech breakthroughs were also highlighted in a discussion I had with a tech analyst
Companies would likely be quick to implement AI in their production optimisation and improving their edge here.
Focus is not only on catching up to the best technology. It is also to get the most out of the technology already at hand and adopt a ‘good-enough’ approach.
Another focus is to leap frog in new areas and create the technologies of the future. China has not had much success in the past of this kind of ‘original innovation’, also called 0-1 innovation, but instead been good at 1-n innovation through improving production processes
China already lead in research of many of these areas and more money is directed towards AI and other tech industries to get research translated into actual commercial breakthroughs. A new state AI fund of USD8.2 bn is set to direct money to strengthen the domestic AI ecosystem and reduce reliance of US semiconductor companies like Nvidia.
XX. Lifting private consumption is a major task:
China has highlighted the need for more consumption driven growth for more than a decade so you could wonder why we should take it serious now?
When I asked a chief economist from a big Chinese investment bank this question, his reply came promptly “because it is urgent now”. His point was, that it had never really been urgent before because China could grow through investments and exports. But that is no longer the case
China needs more growth from private consumption now, also to create more balance with key trade partners like the EU
China also needs stronger consumption to fight deflationary pressures. So, it has never really been as urgent as it is now
XXXXX engagements
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