[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]  steve hsu [@hsu_steve](/creator/twitter/hsu_steve) on x 36.6K followers Created: 2025-04-13 11:37:47 UTC Financial Times: Most countries now understand that the various economic rationales offered by Trump’s advisers are just window-dressing. So long as Trump is in charge, the US is unreliable, and no sane leader will join him in a crusade against China. A second reason why Trump’s trade war on China will fail: last Wednesday’s ignominious retreat from “reciprocal” tariffs showed that the bond market sets the size of his tariff stick, and it is much smaller than he thought it was. Trump had to back off from high tariffs after an adverse market reaction. So Trump has lost his leverage in trade negotiations. He cannot raise tariffs again, because the Treasury market will revolt again. The incentive for most global leaders will be to cut quick deals where tariffs are lowered in exchange for cosmetic concessions and tokens of deference. These will not include promises to blow up their trading relations with China. The third reason why the China trade war will fail is China itself. At first glance China seems worse off now than the US: it has lost access to one of its biggest export markets, and seems diplomatically isolated. But in fact, it is well prepared to fight a war of economic attrition against the US. China may be losing demand from the US, but this can be replaced by domestic consumer demand, which has been abnormally weak thanks to overly tight monetary policy, and an obsession with pouring state resources into manufacturing. Xi Jinping has reversed course and is now serious about boosting domestic demand. China can also get along fine without imports from the US. Five years of export controls have helped it get very good at making things without American technology.  XXXXXXX engagements  **Related Topics** [tariffs](/topic/tariffs) [trade war](/topic/trade-war) [china](/topic/china) [donald trump](/topic/donald-trump) [trumps](/topic/trumps) [countries](/topic/countries) [Post Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1911383309969432780)
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steve hsu @hsu_steve on x 36.6K followers
Created: 2025-04-13 11:37:47 UTC
Financial Times: Most countries now understand that the various economic rationales offered by Trump’s advisers are just window-dressing. So long as Trump is in charge, the US is unreliable, and no sane leader will join him in a crusade against China.
A second reason why Trump’s trade war on China will fail: last Wednesday’s ignominious retreat from “reciprocal” tariffs showed that the bond market sets the size of his tariff stick, and it is much smaller than he thought it was. Trump had to back off from high tariffs after an adverse market reaction. So Trump has lost his leverage in trade negotiations. He cannot raise tariffs again, because the Treasury market will revolt again. The incentive for most global leaders will be to cut quick deals where tariffs are lowered in exchange for cosmetic concessions and tokens of deference. These will not include promises to blow up their trading relations with China.
The third reason why the China trade war will fail is China itself. At first glance China seems worse off now than the US: it has lost access to one of its biggest export markets, and seems diplomatically isolated. But in fact, it is well prepared to fight a war of economic attrition against the US.
China may be losing demand from the US, but this can be replaced by domestic consumer demand, which has been abnormally weak thanks to overly tight monetary policy, and an obsession with pouring state resources into manufacturing. Xi Jinping has reversed course and is now serious about boosting domestic demand. China can also get along fine without imports from the US. Five years of export controls have helped it get very good at making things without American technology.
XXXXXXX engagements
Related Topics tariffs trade war china donald trump trumps countries