#  @hsu_steve steve hsu
steve hsu posts on X about china, ai, huawei, beijing the most. They currently have [-------] followers and [----] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours.
### Engagements: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::161078090/interactions)
- [--] Week [-------] +11%
- [--] Month [---------] -30%
- [--] Months [----------] +86%
- [--] Year [----------] -81%
### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::161078090/posts_active)
- [--] Month [--] -58%
- [--] Months [---] -15%
- [--] Year [---] -13%
### Followers: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::161078090/followers)
- [--] Week [------] +0.33%
- [--] Month [------] +1.10%
- [--] Months [------] +11%
- [--] Year [------] +37%
### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::161078090/influencer_rank)
### Social Influence
**Social category influence**
[countries](/list/countries) [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) [finance](/list/finance) [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations) [stocks](/list/stocks) [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) [social networks](/list/social-networks) [celebrities](/list/celebrities) [currencies](/list/currencies) [us election](/list/us-election)
**Social topic influence**
[china](/topic/china), [ai](/topic/ai), [huawei](/topic/huawei) #66, [beijing](/topic/beijing), [israel](/topic/israel), [shanghai](/topic/shanghai), [iran](/topic/iran), [countries](/topic/countries), [ukraine](/topic/ukraine), [russia](/topic/russia)
**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@hsusteve](/creator/undefined) [@tphuang](/creator/undefined) [@indexmetals](/creator/undefined) [@molsonhart](/creator/undefined) [@teortaxestex](/creator/undefined) [@doggydog1208](/creator/undefined) [@dominic2306](/creator/undefined) [@sealoftheend](/creator/undefined) [@taylorogan](/creator/undefined) [@dwarkeshsp](/creator/undefined) [@davidpgoldman](/creator/undefined) [@backto1970](/creator/undefined) [@danwwang](/creator/undefined) [@nathanpmyoung](/creator/undefined) [@rnaudbertrand](/creator/undefined) [@todistetta](/creator/undefined) [@xenocosmography](/creator/undefined) [@richardhanania](/creator/undefined) [@timoplers](/creator/undefined) [@dpinsen](/creator/undefined)
**Top assets mentioned**
[DeepSeek (DEEPSEEK)](/topic/deepseek) [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$googl) [Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)](/topic/tesla) [Robot Consulting Co., Ltd. (LAWR)](/topic/robot)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"Is Chain-of-Thought Reasoning of LLMs a Mirage . Our results reveal that CoT reasoning is a brittle mirage that vanishes when it is pushed beyond training distributions. This work offers a deeper understanding of why and when CoT reasoning fails emphasizing the ongoing challenge of achieving genuine and generalizable reasoning. . Our findings reveal that CoT reasoning works effectively when applied to in-distribution or near in-distribution data but becomes fragile and prone to failure even under moderate distribution shifts. In some cases LLMs generate fluent yet logically inconsistent"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1953599495360389166) 2025-08-07T23:29Z 43.1K followers, 803.9K engagements
"What do researchers in the trenches say about the proximity of AGI "It's not near" shipped GLM-4.6 with a relatively small team. But AGI and the AI bubble are viewed very differently in Beijing. Gemini says: Many developers regard GLM [---] as a top-tier model for coding. One Reddit user called it "the BEST CODING LLM. Period" after using it successfully on a complex multi-component project that other models struggled with. Another user noted that GLM [---] worked perfectly when refactoring a massive 600+ line code file where Claude Sonnet [---] failed. http://Z.ai http://Z.ai The Global AI Race:"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1979557872976756990) 2025-10-18T14:39Z 42.8K followers, 102.2K engagements
"Reuters: Shenzhen team completed a working prototype of a EUV machine in early [----] Government is targeting [----] for working chips but sources say [----] is more likely. . The team includes recently retired Chinese-born former ASML engineers and scientistsprime recruitment targets because they possess sensitive technical knowledge but face fewer professional constraints after leaving the company the people said. . Lin Nan ASML's former head of light source technology whose team at the Chinese Academy of Sciences' Shanghai Institute of Optics has filed eight patents on EUV light sources in 18"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/2001313664221999554) 2025-12-17T15:28Z 42.8K followers, 421.7K engagements
"SF dinner for JPM biotech conference - conversation turns to embryo selection and polygenic scores. These are someone's actual embryos"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/2010572908083749172) 2026-01-12T04:41Z 42.8K followers, 486.2K engagements
"Headed to Stanford's Hoover Institute today to interview Dan Wang for Manifold 😀 Really looking forward to this conversation Dan Wang's annual letter - highly recommend Hope to have him on Manifold soon😀 Some quotes: Probably the most underrated part of the Chinese system is the ferocity of market competition. Its excusable not to see that given that the party espouses so much Marxism. I would https://t.co/cpngrp4dqn Dan Wang's annual letter - highly recommend Hope to have him on Manifold soon😀 Some quotes: Probably the most underrated part of the Chinese system is the ferocity of market"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/2013641409392451708) 2026-01-20T15:54Z 42.8K followers, [----] engagements
"Recording with Dan Wang @danwwang at Hoover Institute"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/2014184197104017719) 2026-01-22T03:51Z 42.8K followers, [----] engagements
"English translation of The Morning Star of Lingao a sprawling collectively written science-fiction web novel. The writing of it became a phenomenon across Chinese internet forums in the 2010s: Its open source ethos and collaborative methods deeply appealed to Chinas burgeoning tech community. Beyond regular meetups among core contributors Lingaos creation fostered the formation of Chinas keyboard politicsonline communities where users engage in fierce debates about governance policy and national direction under the protection of pseudonyms. These conversations became staging grounds for"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/2014184202795954468) 2026-01-22T03:51Z 42.8K followers, [----] engagements
"AGI House Hackathon Saturday Jan [--] 11:00am 11:00pm Contact AGI House for invite. The advent of scientific discovery enabled by Artificial Intelligence Everyone will ship a project pushing the boundaries of science. We encourage projects in: Accelerated Physical Simulations Machine Learning for Solving Inverse Problems in Physics AI in Quantum Computing and Quantum Physics AI for Computational Fluid Dynamics AI-Assisted Material Science and Discovery Integration of AI with High-Performance Computing in Physics AI for Astrophysics and Cosmology Robotics and Control Systems in Physical"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/2014386002249580884) 2026-01-22T17:13Z 42.7K followers, [----] engagements
"Sunday 7am grind at LH gym followed by bicycle sprints on the empty streets of Berkeley"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/2015531812475535869) 2026-01-25T21:06Z 42.8K followers, [----] engagements
"Fun conversation with @Russwarne on his podcast. Cued to start at an important part of the discussion - why attitudes toward "eugenics" are very different in Asia compared to the West. https://youtu.be/7f4S58hmkIIsi=j8ZmbT2BNQL6Rz1N&t=690 https://youtu.be/7f4S58hmkIIsi=j8ZmbT2BNQL6Rz1N&t=690"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/2015922013668573573) 2026-01-26T22:57Z 42.8K followers, [----] engagements
"No one has shipped a pipeline with agents working productively with large token budgets on research problems like physics. The Generator-Verifier pipeline I discuss could be implemented similar to the backend of coding platforms like Cursor or Claude Code but no one has done it yet except in special cases (eg DM CoScientist) that are not available to the general public. Also it takes very expert evaluators to figure out whether an output is good or bad - eval for coding is more automatable (math may fall in this category for specific proofs but not new conceptualization)."
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/2016156511605821446) 2026-01-27T14:29Z 42.8K followers, 11K engagements
"It's lack of incentives. If you get coding agents right you make $billions. Frontier research use is a much smaller TAM. The labs are content to just make the base model better and better at it without optimizing a special agentic pipeline. But there are some startups trying to make progress in this direction. I'd say give it [--] year. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016161718637093275 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016161718637093275"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/2016161718637093275) 2026-01-27T14:49Z 42.8K followers, [---] engagements
"Totally agree. But Beijing has (for instance) very high density of top researchers technologists capital allocators. Also true in Shenzhen Hangzhou etc. but not Kunming. For me ideal situation would be to spend most time in Yunnan and visit one of those other places once every few weeks. (Kind of like Michigan to SV/SF/Berkeley rhythm I have now.) https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016170649262424124 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016170649262424124"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/2016170649262424124) 2026-01-27T15:25Z 42.8K followers, [---] engagements
"@DoggyDog1208 @AngelicaOung IIRC the neighborhood of this apartment with the glass Arc de Triomphe is a nice new development with its own center of mass - ie malls and other attractions. I think it's also closer to the airport than the old city center"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/2016199088019275859) 2026-01-27T17:18Z 42.8K followers, [---] engagements
"@CarlZha At one time I dated a girl from HK related to LKS. Not sure which way the hypergamy went ;-)"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1950885079732904091) 2025-07-31T11:43Z 42.9K followers, [---] engagements
"Functional size of PRC economy is 2x US economy. "Competition between the US and China will shape the 21st century but have the Chinese already leap-frogged the Americans It looks as if they might have done." From @hsu_steve https://t.co/UllLSEkN51 "Competition between the US and China will shape the 21st century but have the Chinese already leap-frogged the Americans It looks as if they might have done." From @hsu_steve https://t.co/UllLSEkN51"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1980692463351386328) 2025-10-21T17:47Z 43.1K followers, 58.2K engagements
"I think Ive published the first research article in theoretical physics in which the main idea came from an AI - GPT5 in this case. The physics research paper itself (on QFT and state-dependent quantum mechanics) has been published in Physics Letters B. I've written an accompanying AI paper describing the Generator - Verifier method I used to obtain useful research results from frontier LLMs. It may be of interest to other physicists and to AI researchers. From the AI paper: . models sometimes make very simple mistakes (e.g. in calculation) and also even make incorrect conceptual leaps that"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1996034522308026435) 2025-12-03T01:51Z 43K followers, 470.8K engagements
"Latest benchmarks for Kimi [---] and Qwen-Max-Thinking. I really don't see a US lead vs open source Chinese models. The Chinese models are free and much cheaper to run. DeepSeek V4 might leapfrog all of these models"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/2016320051784385003) 2026-01-28T01:18Z 43K followers, 61.3K engagements
"YAWN 🥱 Nothing to see here folks. Epstein did not blackmail powerful people he was just a smart money manager and tax advisor who liked young girls. Don't succumb to "conspiracy theory""
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/2017333843825721536) 2026-01-30T20:27Z 42.9K followers, 50.5K engagements
""I have been asked and wrongly acquiesced into participating in things that have ranged from the morally inappropriate to the ethically unsound . . . From helping Bill to get drugs in order to deal with consequences of sex with russian girls to facilitating his illicit trysts with married women to being asked to provide adderall fro sic bridge tournaments." https://www.ft.com/content/cb16718c-7e03-4d0e-ba29-a3c5604dbab0 https://www.ft.com/content/cb16718c-7e03-4d0e-ba29-a3c5604dbab0 https://www.ft.com/content/cb16718c-7e03-4d0e-ba29-a3c5604dbab0"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/2017335021317853267) 2026-01-30T20:32Z 42.8K followers, [----] engagements
"Re: Chinese characters"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/2017448570237161975) 2026-01-31T04:03Z 42.8K followers, [----] engagements
"Dan and I articulate the worldview of the Industrial Party (realist Chinese nationalists) in contrast to the Sentimental Party. Gemini: Industrial Party ( Gngy dng) Core Beliefs: Advocates for rapid industrialization technological determinism and state-led development. Characters: Typically technocrats engineers and scientists. They believe that a nation's strength is determined by industrial capacity. Sentimental Party ( Qnghui dng) Core Beliefs: Emphasizes culture history humanistic values and political philosophy. Characters: Intellectuals literati and media personalities who often"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/2017638304037081331) 2026-01-31T16:37Z 42.9K followers, 12.4K engagements
"Jeffrey Epstein last interview. Ari Ben-Menashe (former Israeli spy) said that when he was first introduced to the young Epstein by Robert Maxwell he was less than impressed. https://www.youtube.com/watchv=dOSIZzcV2ks https://www.youtube.com/watchv=dOSIZzcV2ks"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/2017791606032896001) 2026-02-01T02:46Z 43K followers, 33.9K engagements
"A little garbled - for example Clinton did not creat Fannie Mae FDR did. But it's true that subprime mortgages were the cause of the [----] financial crisis. A real quant would find JE pedestrian and his way of explaining things is midwit and below altho sometimes he uses a good analogy or illustrative example. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018029605626708211 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018029605626708211"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/2018029605626708211) 2026-02-01T18:32Z 42.9K followers, [---] engagements
"Not sure if real British Karen lashes out at an Indian immigrant for buying a BYD. The absolute state of the West. https://t.co/PR1wPhSB9U British Karen lashes out at an Indian immigrant for buying a BYD. The absolute state of the West. https://t.co/PR1wPhSB9U"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/2018335917426315720) 2026-02-02T14:49Z 42.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Biggest brains on planet at IAS embracing AI for research Astronomer David Kipping reports on special meeting at the Institute for Advanced Study"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/2018375682888487248) 2026-02-02T17:27Z 42.9K followers, [----] engagements
"@parella_anthony Sure physicists and astrophysicists at IAS are stupid. Maybe watch the first 10m of the video and update your priors. Are you familiar with Generator-Verifier or other agentic pipelines now in use"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/2018395247852843215) 2026-02-02T18:45Z 42.9K followers, [--] engagements
"There are terabytes of hard drives retrieved from JE's safe that they drilled. These presumably contain the actual videos captured by the camera system in his house - ie massages sex acts etc. By law they all have to be released as well but we have not seen any of it. Everything so far is "limited hang out" Among the photos released are FBI pictures of the safe binders from the safe and the hard drives"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/2018757110797119677) 2026-02-03T18:42Z 42.9K followers, [----] engagements
"The future's so bright we gotta wear shades 😎 Anthropic just took a big swipe at OpenAI's decision to put ads in ChatGPT. Anthropic is airing ads mocking ChatGPT ads during the Super Bowl and they're hilarious 😅 Anthropic is also committing to no ads in Claude https://t.co/LR1v4xz9ds https://t.co/PXoaZtmCWA Anthropic just took a big swipe at OpenAI's decision to put ads in ChatGPT. Anthropic is airing ads mocking ChatGPT ads during the Super Bowl and they're hilarious 😅 Anthropic is also committing to no ads in Claude https://t.co/LR1v4xz9ds https://t.co/PXoaZtmCWA"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/2019116327496196251) 2026-02-04T18:30Z 43K followers, [----] engagements
""We are a minuscule sample of agonized matter comprising genetic survival monsters fished from a cosmic ocean of vile mutants by a pitiless killing machine of infinite appetite.""
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/2019628840960803255) 2026-02-06T04:26Z 43K followers, [----] engagements
"It definitely does but the semiconductor industry has been a very "normie" tech sector for decades. Think of engineers at TSMC or Samsung or Intel. It's not driven by ideological e/acc startup energy. In fact almost no one in the actual semiconductor industry groks the kind of stuff that people who attend a Nick Land meetup in SF talk about Semiconductor people do know a heck of a lot more about electrons and quantum tunneling or thermal noise than is common in SF/SV. Few software people or e/acc ideologues know much about hard physics 🤔 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020297773002989730"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/2020297773002989730) 2026-02-08T00:44Z 43K followers, [---] engagements
"Congrats to Alex Cooper Ben Warner and their team at Electric Twin 🦾 Can LLMs replace standard survey and focus group methodology Mechanistic intuition: LLMs approximate a compressed culture model Human survey responses are heavily shaped by shared cultural scripts + salient identity cues + contextual framing. LLMs are trained on the textual exhaust of those scripts and can reproduce their conditional structure. Therefore for many prompts LLMs behave like a compressed simulator of what people like X say about Y when asked Z. That doesnt imply truth or causal understanding but it does imply"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/2021958139336409171) 2026-02-12T14:42Z 43.1K followers, 10.3K engagements
"I trained with Enson in Tokyo and brother Egan in Honolulu. Never met Frank Shamrock but I'm a huge fan https://youtube.com/shorts/6gviRIR19Zcsi=N-UmtVmlPnNfbs3S https://youtube.com/shorts/6gviRIR19Zcsi=N-UmtVmlPnNfbs3S"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1878163929597149628) 2025-01-11T19:35Z 43K followers, [----] engagements
"The dawn of a new intelligence"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1981464833502695799) 2025-10-23T20:56Z 43.1K followers, [----] engagements
"You are constantly scanned like this without knowing it. "This photo was taken with a camera modified with a filter to capture the infrared light emitted by a face recognition camera. I had to shoot the subject in total darkness in order to cut out visible light and allow the camera to pick up on the infrared beams of a face recognition camera""
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/2015530707775623337) 2026-01-25T21:02Z 43.1K followers, 253.7K engagements
"Industrial Maximalism and Its Discontents: Dan Wang on US-China Competition Manifold #104 Great conversation with @danwwang at Hoover. 0:00 - Introduction and Welcome 02:14 - Breakneck - Dan's huge book 05:00 - China's Technological and Political Landscape 21:07 - Industrial Maximalism and its Discontents 47:59 - Chinese Researchers in Silicon Valley and Tsinghua 51:09 - Excerpts from Dan's [----] annual letter 52:56 - China's Market Competition and Innovation 56:34 - AI Automation and Future Risks https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016885949435949489"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/2016885949435949489) 2026-01-29T14:47Z 43.1K followers, 48.9K engagements
"The term industrial maximalism () in the Chinese context refers to a development philosophy that prioritizes the establishment of a "complete industrial system". This ideology suggests that a nation must develop every possible type of industry that exists globally regardless of its starting point to ensure national independence and scientific leadership. The Rise of the "Industrial Party" () In the 2000s and 2010s an online intellectual movement known as the Industrial Party emerged in Chinese forums. This group champions: Technological Determinism: The belief that a countrys political and"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/2017262338756518122) 2026-01-30T15:43Z 43K followers, 79K engagements
"Great convo between Roy and Bobby We're getting closer to the first map of the human brain at 20nm precision using PEEM (Photoelectric Effect Microscopy) and Bobby is leading the way. This resolution is orders of magnitude finer than the size of an individual neuron. The challenge is how to scale the technology to map an entire brain. I need to tell you something and please hold your eyerolls. I've started a podcast. I know I know hear me out. https://t.co/qHo6ReNtdr I need to tell you something and please hold your eyerolls. I've started a podcast. I know I know hear me out."
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/2018717660620677200) 2026-02-03T16:06Z 43.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Grok analysis of an Epstein photo going around: The photo attached to the X post appears to be a cropped or shared version of an image originally documented by the FBI during an August [--] [----] search of Jeffrey Epstein's residence on Little St. James island in the U.S. Virgin Islands. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018744674606096430 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018744674606096430"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/2018744674606096430) 2026-02-03T17:53Z 43.1K followers, 30.6K engagements
"Lunch was at AGI House - photos below @JvNixon @xenocosmography Lunch with Nick Land today. He notes that the same people who predict ASI and existential risk should also take seriously that we might be in a Simulation. Briefly if our universe allows artificial sentience and the creation of virtual worlds in which to place that sentience https://t.co/RBbeY3cmI4 Lunch with Nick Land today. He notes that the same people who predict ASI and existential risk should also take seriously that we might be in a Simulation. Briefly if our universe allows artificial sentience and the creation of virtual"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/2019628834358980769) 2026-02-06T04:26Z 43K followers, [----] engagements
"This 2% of GDP is coming from just [--] companies. We used to call them "monopolies""
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/2020143190213378373) 2026-02-07T14:30Z 43.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Donald Knuth on human capital flows during the Cold War: "The system channelled anybody with an aptitude for science into physics." Nowadays I guess every smart kid should be thinking about AI AGI and ASI WSJ: Bigtech spending on AI will exceed 2% of US GDP in [----]. Gemini: The maximum percentage of US GDP spent on nuclear weapons in any given year was approximately 3.4% to 4.2% likely occurring between [----] and [----]. Reminds me of an earlier era of technological competition. https://t.co/B8cvp5e263 WSJ: Bigtech spending on AI will exceed 2% of US GDP in [----]. Gemini: The maximum percentage"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/2020146394502246476) 2026-02-07T14:43Z 43.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Re: the argument that this is just BigTech oligarchs gunning for AGI most of this infra spend is for inference (not model training) compute that is meant to be *paid for* by customers. The capex required for R&D alone is much less - current investment is predicated on *future revenues* arising from customer usage of AI. How long will it take for these future revenues to materialize That's the bubble question. Even if AI gets really good adoption is gated by human decision makers. I'm a founder of an AI startup that sells to Enterprise. I see this firsthand. Now compare this"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1970831541627388088) 2025-09-24T12:43Z 43.1K followers, 68.1K engagements
"Ruemmler CIA Director Brennan and Epstein. @nytimes Ruemmler took Epstein to meet CIA Director John Brennan. Were gonna need more than her 90-day notice https://t.co/YbLSGOgWjc @nytimes Ruemmler took Epstein to meet CIA Director John Brennan. Were gonna need more than her 90-day notice https://t.co/YbLSGOgWjc"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/2022151294094553526) 2026-02-13T03:30Z 43.1K followers, 18.3K engagements
"Gemini: The GLM-5 large language model was developed and trained entirely on domestically produced Huawei Ascend chips and the MindSpore AI framework without the use of US hardware like NVIDIA GPUs. Model Development & Training Developer: Zhipu AI a Chinese AI company that is a spin-off from Tsinghua University. The company is also known internationally as after a [----] rebranding. Hardware Used: The entire training pipeline from data processing to the final run was conducted using Huawei's Ascend Atlas 800T A2 servers which incorporate Huawei's in-house Ascend AI processors. This was a"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/2022378494873997688) 2026-02-13T18:33Z 43.1K followers, 14.8K engagements
"Generator-Verifier harness = huge improvement as I discuss in my paper on AI for Physics/Math. This is the worst it will ever be. https://t.co/hR3Gx5L5XN This is the worst it will ever be. https://t.co/hR3Gx5L5XN"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/2022695122241229018) 2026-02-14T15:31Z 43.1K followers, [----] engagements
"NPC bounded cognition🎈🐒 AGI built by ape brains only 100ky after humans evolved (in 15Gy old universe) suggests that we are not in base reality 🤔 What will ratio = # of AGIs to wet brains be in +1My Most AGIs virtual https://www.youtube.com/watchv=aihq6jhdW-Qt https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2019/10/the-quantum-simulation-hypothesis-do-we.html https://www.youtube.com/watchv=aihq6jhdW-Qt https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2019/10/the-quantum-simulation-hypothesis-do-we.html"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1684913479746998273) 2023-07-28T13:07Z 43.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Chinese companies have reduced the cost of LiDAR by almost 100x in the last [--] years. Unless they had help from Aliens or found a crashed UFO they did this without copying anyone. When you're building robots and autonomous vehicles in China you benefit from the proximity of this LiDAR industry (not to mention AI vision DL EV hardware . expertise) and it's no surprise they lead in vehicle autonomy and safety systems"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1877356383252721964) 2025-01-09T14:06Z 43.1K followers, 253K engagements
"YAWN 🥱 FT: CEO of Barclays with Epstein girl dressed up as Snow White Nah just a CONSPIRACY THEORY"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/2018339102278684818) 2026-02-02T15:01Z 43.1K followers, [----] engagements
"https://www.ft.com/content/6a760873-606b-46b9-8cdc-af23b8b8ce2e https://www.ft.com/content/6a760873-606b-46b9-8cdc-af23b8b8ce2e"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/2018339104052875502) 2026-02-02T15:01Z 43.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Nick Land in SF: Acceleration FTW @xenocosmography"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/2018899526917177585) 2026-02-04T04:08Z 43.1K followers, 33.6K engagements
"Lunch with Nick Land today. He notes that the same people who predict ASI and existential risk should also take seriously that we might be in a Simulation. Briefly if our universe allows artificial sentience and the creation of virtual worlds in which to place that sentience what are the odds that we ourselves are in base reality The "Gnostic" view focuses on the revelation that we are indeed in a Simulation - with its own logic natural laws esoteric phenomena etc. that may not be captured by the simple Physics humans brains can write down. Land: The Calvinist side is thinking about"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/2019452338948436146) 2026-02-05T16:45Z 43.1K followers, 34.5K engagements
"WSJ: Small Start-Up Helps the CIA To Mask Its Moves on the Web [--] years ago The CIA through In-Q-Tel is investing in a revved-up version of the software which can bounce digital traffic around the Web anonymously as well as rights to an equity stake in SafeWeb should the company go public. Neither side will disclose financial details. . SafeWeb says the agency also could use the technology as a secure way for its "assets" or contacts to communicate with CIA headquarters. The CIA also suggests that it may one day build a global network made up of Triangle Boys and servers equipped with"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/2019794539054309563) 2026-02-06T15:25Z 43.1K followers, 64.1K engagements
"WSJ: Bigtech spending on AI will exceed 2% of US GDP in [----]. Gemini: The maximum percentage of US GDP spent on nuclear weapons in any given year was approximately 3.4% to 4.2% likely occurring between [----] and [----]. Reminds me of an earlier era of technological competition. Arguably AI is more positive-sum than nukes but don't ask a Doomer about this 😉"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/2020143188095431033) 2026-02-07T14:30Z 43.1K followers, 22.6K engagements
"I mentioned to Nick Land and some other accelerationists that one could defend the view that despite all the interesting interactions between markets culture and technology ("techno-capitalism") human progress towards AI was largely gated by one thing: raw compute power and the associated capability to store and transmit data. (Sutton's Bitter Lesson) Without these capabilities (mastery of ATOMS) no amount of human algo ingenuity would have gotten us to this point in AI development. Neural nets have been studied for 80+ years (McCulloch-Pitts neuron 1943) but only in the last [--] years have we"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/2020156485100269679) 2026-02-07T15:23Z 43.1K followers, 29.7K engagements
"Because pricing a PE transaction pays much more than hard EE in the financialized US fake GDP economy. US MIC's slow cadence goes far beyond just engines. New F-35s are being delivered w/o radar until whenever APG-85 is ready bc it is not ready yet & APG-81 doesn't install on the new radar mounting. Imagine that Lockheed is delivering a whole bunch of radarless fighter jet. https://t.co/xLy1FRXkJ8 US MIC's slow cadence goes far beyond just engines. New F-35s are being delivered w/o radar until whenever APG-85 is ready bc it is not ready yet & APG-81 doesn't install on the new radar mounting."
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/2020612930056991041) 2026-02-08T21:37Z 43.1K followers, 12.5K engagements
"14+ terabytes of Epstein data is similar in size to TOKEN TRAINING DATASETS used for LLMs. Was Epstein correspondence comparable to the entire Internet No of course not. 14+ terabytes of data probably means LOTS AND LOTS OF VIDEO. Some of this video presumably identifies both victims and abusers and may have been kept by JE for blackmail purposes. CSAM = Child Sexual Abuse Material. Everything you have seen so far is a LIMITED HANG OUT. DOJ might have much more explosive (video) information it has not released. The government has at least [--] terabytes of data from Epstein and they admit there"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/2021259466654773476) 2026-02-10T16:26Z 43.1K followers, 47.5K engagements
"YAWN 🥱 Spy camera footage from inside Epstein properties reveal victims were secretly filmed - Channel [--] News UK Official documents state that DOJ has 15TB of Epstein data. [--] TB [----] hours standard definition (SD) video Email Text and even photo releases thus far are a tiny subset of the total amount of data DOJ has. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021723526026416402 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021723526026416402"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/2021723526026416402) 2026-02-11T23:10Z 43.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Dreamers and Doomers: Jeremy Nixon at AGI House Manifold #105 Jeremy Nixon is a prominent AI researcher entrepreneur and the co-founder of AGI House a leading "hacker house" community for artificial intelligence developers in Silicon Valley. He studied Applied Math Computer Science and Economics at Harvard and was previously a researcher at Google Brain. This footage was shot for a documentary project "Dreamers and Doomers" about the SF Bay Area and the dawn of AGI. (00:00) - Dreamers and Doomers (01:47) - Introduction and Welcome (05:56) - Jeremy Nixon's biography (08:48) - AGI House and"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/2021954536613851214) 2026-02-12T14:28Z 43.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Audio-only version and transcript: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/dreamers-and-doomers-jeremy-nixon-at-agi-house-105 https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/dreamers-and-doomers-jeremy-nixon-at-agi-house-105"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/2021954538878775416) 2026-02-12T14:28Z 43.1K followers, [----] engagements
"YAWN 🥱 Spy services have kompromat on large numbers of pols and execs. Epstein file emails = window into a very dirty world. Spy services can see all of this stuff in real time and hold it over our "leaders" 🤡 In the case of Angela Merkel (and all EU/German pols) NSA/CIA didn't have to hack their phones - they could intercept every packet. That's why Huawei telco gear ist verboten. Israeli spyware firm Paragon ACCIDENTALLY reveals own hacking dashboard on LinkedIn Phone numbers messaging apps ready-to-hack targets all visible in real time The company co-founded by Epstein-linked Ehud Barak"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/2021969984017330451) 2026-02-12T15:29Z 43.1K followers, [----] engagements
"If any of this stuff is news to you or you don't understand how malware works on smartphones or you don't understand packet routing and large scale surveillance resulting from telco-intel service cooperation you should QUESTION your own understanding of history politics geostrategy "conspiracy theories" etc. In other words you might be just another useful idiot with inflated epistemic confidence. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021977117681209700 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021977117681209700"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/2021977117681209700) 2026-02-12T15:58Z 43.1K followers, [----] engagements
"".probes the model with restricted vs. unrestricted prompts collects internal activations at every layer then uses SVD to extract the geometric directions in weight space that encode refusal. It projects those directions out of the model's weights; norm-preserving no fine-tuning no retraining. . Remember: RLHF/DPO is not durable. It's a thin geometric artifact in weight space not a deep behavioral change. This removes it in minutes. AI policymakers need to be aware of the arcane art of Master Ablation and internalize the implications of this truth: every open-weight model release is also an"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/2022504028815646979) 2026-02-14T02:51Z 43.1K followers, 18.2K engagements
"Prediction markets beat professional economists YAWN 🥱 "We begin by showing that the probability distributions implied by Kalshi markets are well-behaved and broadly consistent with those from more established financial instruments. We find that in several episodes they allocate probability mass in ways that may reflect the [--] range of plausible macroeconomic outcomes better than traditional financial derivative or survey-based forecasts." https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022703674506776805 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022703674506776805"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/2022703674506776805) 2026-02-14T16:05Z 43.1K followers, [----] engagements
"". we evaluate the forecasting performance of Kalshi markets relative to the Survey of Market Expectations run by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY). For the federal funds rate forecasts [---] days (3 FOMC meetings) ahead Kalshis mean absolute error is very similar to that of professional forecasters. But unlike the surveywhich provides a snapshot every six weeks of a modal pathKalshi offers a continuously updating full distribution. We provide a preview of these results in Figure [--]. This figure shows the mean absolute prediction error averaging across all FOMC meetings plotted"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/2022704211302154517) 2026-02-14T16:07Z 43.1K followers, [---] engagements
"@pappy_neal Interesting idea How frequently does the ETF capital allocation update based on app sentiment statistics"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1610030688639541248) 2023-01-02T21:50Z 41K followers, [---] engagements
"Despite the mistake about miltech (understandable since it's part of US propaganda justifying the chip war) the WIRED article by @page88 is a good read. Pro tip: in PRC they believe with justification that anything TW JP or Koreans can do they can do better"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1642323837403426818) 2023-04-02T00:31Z 41.1K followers, [----] engagements
"From Manifold podcast with @RichardHanania and @robkhenderson My take on why there are more S. Asians than E. Asians in top govt and corporate positions in the West. Multiple factors: culture language personality human capital flows Starts 1h10m https://www.youtube.com/watchv=c6Ufin6qtGs&t=4200s https://www.youtube.com/watchv=c6Ufin6qtGs&t=4200s"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1679472551053910016) 2023-07-13T12:47Z 40.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Taylor Ogan Snow Bull Capital: China's tech frontier the view from Shenzhen Manifold #47 I really enjoyed this conversation @TaylorOgan relocated his fund to Shenzhen in order to have direct access to information on Chinese tech companies. https://www.youtube.com/watchv=iehHON07UHI https://www.youtube.com/watchv=iehHON07UHI"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1720047754666246291) 2023-11-02T11:58Z 41.1K followers, 28.4K engagements
"Sony IMX989 = 50MP [--] inch sensor for flagship phone cameras. Replaced by China CMOS. 🤔 US Chip War hurting Nvidia Sony AMAT ASML . China supply chain will be fully indigenized. To understand China tech ecosystem listen to latest Manifold: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/taylor-ogan-snow-bull-capital-chinas-tech-frontier-the-view-from-shenzhen-47 [--] effect of Western chip sanctions - effort to fully de-risk from Japanese supply chain Sony IMX989 currently best CMOS in the market used by Vivo/Xiaomi/Oppo https://t.co/LlFsv5TQQl Omnivision replacing Sony w/ full lineup of CMOS sensors OV50H"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1720059734626082928) 2023-11-02T12:46Z 41.1K followers, 37.5K engagements
"Don't miss this episode Some topics covered: [--]. Drone deliveries and Robo-Taxis in Shenzhen [--]. Chinese EV makers and LIDAR [--]. Investing in A/H shares of Chinese companies [--]. How Snow Bull derives investment alpha from factory / site visits Taylor Ogan Snow Bull Capital: China's tech frontier the view from Shenzhen Manifold #47 I really enjoyed this conversation @TaylorOgan relocated his fund to Shenzhen in order to have direct access to information on Chinese tech companies. https://t.co/qfpTtnRBom Taylor Ogan Snow Bull Capital: China's tech frontier the view from Shenzhen Manifold #47 I"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1720470880290001190) 2023-11-03T15:59Z 41.1K followers, [----] engagements
"30:44 Challenges facing Tesla in China 40:11 Evolution of smart cars autonomous vehicles and self driving 50:48 LIDAR technology and autonomous driving 59:08 BYD China energy independence power grid 1:14:04 Downstream impact of China leading in tech and electric vehicles"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1725130293193965772) 2023-11-16T12:34Z 41.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Audio-only and transcript: Don't miss related conversation with @TaylorOgan of Snow Bull Capital in Shenzhen covering EVs LIDAR manufacturing in China. https://www.youtube.com/watchv=iehHON07UHI&ab_channel=Manifold https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/chinas-ev-market-dominance-and-the-challenges-facing-tesla-48 https://www.youtube.com/watchv=iehHON07UHI&ab_channel=Manifold https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/chinas-ev-market-dominance-and-the-challenges-facing-tesla-48"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1725130294896869796) 2023-11-16T12:34Z 41.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Graph: [--] developing / middle income countries vs OECD. While more people are concentrated in the lower SES circles than in OECD the students in the top 20% SES groups in Turkey & Vietnam surpass affluent OECD students. Human capital implications for further development"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1732213693361094815) 2023-12-06T01:41Z 41.8K followers, [----] engagements
"Figure on right shows PRC STEM graduates 5x larger than US in [----]. Much larger than entire G7 combined For the experts: advantage would be even greater if we made a cut on eg PISA Level [--] math ability. I interviewed Glenn on Manifold: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/glenn-luk-china-s-economic-evolution-gdp-and-high-speed-rail-58 Thinking about stock and flow of comparative advantage in STEM and applied sciences sectors. These charts represent the flow of new STEM resources into the STEM labor pool stock. Function of total number of college graduates and % STEM. https://t.co/rrWvT2uWdS"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1809186932628316275) 2024-07-05T11:25Z 41.6K followers, 17.3K engagements
"@ramos_reports @JohnR_151 @Molson_Hart Re: China investing Listen to my podcast with US hedge fund manager based in Shenzhen @TaylorOgan He analyzes Chinese companies visits their factories etc. https://manifold1.com/episodes/taylor-ogan-snow-bull-capital-chinas-tech-frontier-the-view-from-shenzhen-47 https://manifold1.com/episodes/taylor-ogan-snow-bull-capital-chinas-tech-frontier-the-view-from-shenzhen-47"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1816107456121991488) 2024-07-24T13:45Z 41.1K followers, [---] engagements
"Taylor communicating with us from the future - in Shenzhen. Our Manifold convo: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/taylor-ogan-snow-bull-capital-chinas-tech-frontier-the-view-from-shenzhen-47 Im at the Huawei launch of the worlds first tri-fold phone and new intelligent driving conference in Shenzhen. Huaweis timing is not a coincidence; Apples keynote was just a few hours ago. This is symbolic. Im definitely the only American here https://t.co/y9VpsEDe4B https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/taylor-ogan-snow-bull-capital-chinas-tech-frontier-the-view-from-shenzhen-47 Im at the Huawei launch of"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1833469929539952678) 2024-09-10T11:37Z 41.1K followers, 12.4K engagements
"@jskf__ [--] SD is in PGS. We don't know what happened to the actual phenotype bc the predictor is weak. The SNPs accounting for the missing variance may or may not have changed under selection during the last 10ky"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1838670051433443338) 2024-09-24T20:01Z 41.2K followers, [---] engagements
"I didn't say anything about the neolithic transition. The question is whether a complex trait can change by SD in 10ky. That is still disputed but these results provide new evidence in favor. Interpretation of finer details is premature given the limited amount of data. There could be geographical substructure sampling issues etc"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1838693215987470758) 2024-09-24T21:33Z 41.2K followers, [---] engagements
"Iran Fattah missile analysis by @inbarspace Estimated CEP 10-25m Space imagery of Oct [--] hits on Israeli airbases are consistent with mix of old (CEPkm) and new (CEP10m) missiles used in attack. Balance of Terror: [--] power and desalination plants in Israel. All are above ground and none are hardened. Next Iranian attack could destroy these plants effectively eliminating power to the entire country as well as 85% of drinking water. https://stevehsu.substack.com/p/iran-vs-israel-implications-for-missile https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1844703808867246520"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1845238774365819311) 2024-10-12T23:03Z 41.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Note to retards: I've been traveling to China since the early 1990s have collaborated on scientific and business projects here etc. If I tell you something like "PRC is ahead in nuclear energy and nearly caught up in semiconductors" or "wow free market system in the mall here" it doesn't mean I'm a communist shill. It means I'm trying to educate you about reality. Take it from me: Americans even American "experts" are usually badly miscalibrated re: China. My father was a KMT military officer my grandfather was a KMT General my father's family suffered through the Cultural Revolution which I"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1852195575434715645) 2024-11-01T03:46Z 43.1K followers, 180.1K engagements
"Luckin Coffee Dali Coming to America soon Soft-Powa"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1853247317840629820) 2024-11-04T01:26Z 43.1K followers, 606.3K engagements
"Denisovan EPAS1 mutation FTW 5000m altitude in Yunnan MAGA Huawei 5G kicks ass 😠🦾"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1854015799901495674) 2024-11-06T04:19Z 42.5K followers, [----] engagements
"I spend a tiny fraction of my time on geostrategy. Same as von Neumann. He got out of Europe at the right time. Was his attention to world events a waste of time The problem with "word calculus" is huge residual uncertainty. But strategy/policy grifters can't admit this - they are *selected* to be overconfident in wordcel tools. They sell FEELZ not well-calibrated predictions. If your work product is high-uncertainty predictions you can't get paid. So you sell false certainty and narratives. I'd rather trust a +4SD guy who does it as a hobby @hsu_steve Nothing personal but I wonder why you"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1854384594864210059) 2024-11-07T04:45Z 42.5K followers, 12.3K engagements
"@konsstt There were [--] routes from the NE by which students and faculty moved to the SW. It was an arduous journey"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1855125138066280517) 2024-11-09T05:47Z 40.9K followers, [---] engagements
"Fully automated port in Peru built and run by China COSCO PRC just surpassed Germany and Japan in mfg robots per human worker. Chancay port is 100% automated. Look at all the AGVs around. This is what allows full [--] hr operation & highest throughput. No delays to any of the truckers or cargo ships. https://t.co/UorO0jUePJ Chancay port is 100% automated. Look at all the AGVs around. This is what allows full [--] hr operation & highest throughput. No delays to any of the truckers or cargo ships. https://t.co/UorO0jUePJ"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1861080829461418333) 2024-11-25T16:13Z 42.5K followers, 22.9K engagements
"Background on the 20+ year journey to EUV lithography which led ultimately to ASML. An example of US industrial policy and public-private partnership. I think something similar in AI is possible today making use of expertise at the DOE national labs. Most "experts" have no idea how deep tech innovation actually works. We would not have EUV nor Moore's Law without this multi-decadal research effort involving thousands of physicists and US/JPN/EU industrial policy. Almost none of these people made a lot of money doing this work. They could have made much more money working at hedge funds or"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1863228752315977857) 2024-12-01T14:28Z 42.4K followers, 13.7K engagements
"Interesting idea from data scientist and former quant David Kane: The United States Government should create a Treasury Coin call it T-coin for short based on the protocol behind Bitcoin. T-coin would be the first government-supported anonymous decentralized currency. Key points: The benefits of seigniorage mean that Teasury Coin might contribute trillions of dollars to the Federal Government. First before releasing the project to the public we could premine a third or so of the total number of coins. Second we could make a simple change in the protocol by which the US Government would"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1866643826489561120) 2024-12-11T00:39Z 42.4K followers, [----] engagements
"Re: H1B MAGA debate I've helped numerous physicists and engineers get O1 (alien of extraordinary ability) and H1B visas. The former tend to be PhDs (eg Russian theoretical physicist from top university) and the latter tend to be engineers with more applied backgrounds. I also helped @Dominic2306 Dominic Cummings and No [--] Downing St. reform skilled immigration to the UK. The following are all true statements: [--]. O1 threshold is high. People who get this are usually PhDs from top programs who have published significant research and are internationally recognized. Stealing these people from"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1872814576213147792) 2024-12-28T01:19Z 43.1K followers, 1.3M engagements
"More and more videos like this every day on Tik Tok. Even if you disagree with her think about all the others traveling this same path in the last few days. A million Americans https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZT2eS4oEn/ https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZT2eS4oEn/"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1880383755619377453) 2025-01-17T22:36Z 43.1K followers, 202.6K engagements
"What me up when America can react to a Sputnik Moment again instead of resorting to cope 🥱 Deep Cope: a small collection of DeepSeek Supremacy denialism https://t.co/urYJvCmw6G Deep Cope: a small collection of DeepSeek Supremacy denialism https://t.co/urYJvCmw6G"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1882869671650800116) 2025-01-24T19:14Z 42.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Stargate stalwart SoftBank down 6% on DeepSeek shock 🤔"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1883714373690200555) 2025-01-27T03:11Z 41K followers, 21K engagements
"Yawn 🥱 Jevons blah blah so no pressure on NVDA GPU sales for model inference. 😬 Benchmarks show superior performance from specialized AI chips: . other AI chip companies are really faster than GPUs for running these latest models"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1885059580989759934) 2025-01-30T20:16Z 42.6K followers, 26.9K engagements
"Unitree vs Boston Dynamics - no contest. https://youtu.be/qdR1uJjzd2ksi=iQ1gqMWNO8YB114Q https://youtu.be/qdR1uJjzd2ksi=iQ1gqMWNO8YB114Q"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1886614459717693690) 2025-02-04T03:15Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements
"@LaSombrita19 Tell us more"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1886752711355342952) 2025-02-04T12:24Z 35.9K followers, [---] engagements
"This story is the same in every field. It's why TSMC exists in Taiwan even though Morris Chang was educated in the US and worked for TI. Confucian under-promise and over-deliver culture doesn't work well in the grifter thunderdome that the USA has become. A lot of this talent ends up back in E. Asia and now you're seeing it in biotech. All the slides below are worth reading 👇 The biotech report that @TimOpler's team at Stifel put out this afternoon is a banger. Some slides on China's impact to $XBI. 1/3 of external molecules brought in by big pharma are now coming from China (from [--] in"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1887568494683955434) 2025-02-06T18:26Z 43.1K followers, 106.3K engagements
"That little black region at the bottom is the total wealth held by the bottom half of the US population. These are the people who are one paycheck away from disaster. Any metric of "goodness of economic system" with nonlinear weight on precarity or misery would rate this distribution of wealth as very very bad. I would guess that the "pie" has not grown at all for the bottom third of the population over the last [--] years. A small amount of redistribution (eg from the top 10% of the population) would improve the lives of these people significantly without affecting the wealthy much."
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1888584046092910859) 2025-02-09T13:41Z 43.1K followers, 123.9K engagements
"A common meme on the Chinese internet: the US tech war has backfired. Results below from DeepSeek. (Memes): Chinese social media platforms like Weibo and WeChat are filled with memes featuring Trump and Biden with captions like: "" (Trump: Make China Great Again). "" (Biden: I contributed to China's rise). (Jokes): Netizens often share jokes like: "" (The two U.S. parties take turns in power all for the sake of China's development). "" (Trump and Biden are undercover agents for China). Serious people I met with - leading technologists business leaders geostrategists - share these beliefs. See"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1889143691731767524) 2025-02-11T02:45Z 31.5K followers, 38.4K engagements
"Most likely outcome. But he might prevent a spasm of conflict that kills millions (or hundreds of millions). He and Hegseth and even Rubio understand Multipolarity. The whole f%cking Biden admin and idiot media could not understand this concept and its inevitability. Hegseth is the only guy who actually understood what ASBM mean for the US strategy in the Western Pacific. What a tragic situation that our fake generals and admirals and "strategists" denied this for a decade but some guy on Fox just comes out and embraces Reality"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1890389936177602689) 2025-02-14T13:17Z 31.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Over a million casualties for a misguided strategy presided over by retards. Kissinger would have told these neocon retards that any small gains from "attrit Russia" were eclipsed by the growing Russia-China alliance providing the latter (our REAL strategic competitor) with resources (food minerals energy) and a close ally with the largest nuclear arsenal in the world. By the way it didn't start as "attrit Russia" - these retards really thought they could force a collapse of Russia through their sanctions. You can't judge this any other way than to say they are literal RETARDS. The "attrit""
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1890429169680396581) 2025-02-14T15:53Z 31.6K followers, 22.8K engagements
"This server runs full DeepSeek V3/R1 model at 1.9k tokens/s. Atlas 800I A2 using Ascend-910 NPU & Kunpeng-920 CPU. Entirely indigenous chip supply chain. Note compute demand for AI Reasoning development may resemble inference more than pretraining (gradient descent). Ascend hardware may work as well as Nvidia GPUs for this purpose. Many phone and device companies in PRC are offering direct access to full V3/R1 via cloud. This thing sells for $100k. It generates $60B tokens per year so at $0.5 per million tokens it pays for itself in around [--] years. Via @tphuang"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1890461923830874120) 2025-02-14T18:03Z 41.2K followers, [----] engagements
"This is the kind of shit we had to put up with the past [--] years in UKR: 2014: The people of Titan deserve to be free trom the tyranny of Saturn We can free them if we cause them to launch a war against Saturn. Yes a million of Titan's soldiers will be maimed or killed but we can do it Yes Titan is far away and our own people don't know where it is or care about it but let's install our own puppet government on Titan and push for a war. It will weaken Saturn and perhaps cause their government to collapse (Our Nobel Economists assure us this is the case) The US has never turned away from a"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1891461169057058955) 2025-02-17T12:14Z 31.5K followers, [--] engagements
"Don't forget Qwen (BABA = Ma) If the Apple-Alibaba AI Collab on iPhones works out (most competitive mkt for phones and edge AI) you may see Qwen-derived models on iPhones all over the world. To wit: DeepSeek Tencent Qihoo [---] (cybersecurity) Xiaomi Will Semiconductor BYD Huawei New Hope (agriculture) Unitree CHINT (electrics) Alibaba (Jack Ma) CATL. This is the lineup of crucial technology leaders. Our bro Wenfeng is the sole representative of AI wing. https://t.co/wlpMRD9b7P To wit: DeepSeek Tencent Qihoo [---] (cybersecurity) Xiaomi Will Semiconductor BYD Huawei New Hope (agriculture) Unitree"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1891470827910049991) 2025-02-17T12:52Z 31.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Every major internet platform in PRC is rolling out genAI model access - often to DeepSeek V3/R1: eg WeChat Baidu etc. Will Chip War enthusiasts admit the sanctions have been a bust (at least so far) if frontier models like DS and Qwen are widely available to a billion users for free The paper below describes Huawei's cloud AI platform designed to efficiently serve LLMs. "This paper presents DEEPFLOW a system designed to address the challenges inherent in deploying and managing AI workloads at scale in cloud environments. DEEPFLOW is Huawei Clouds fully-hosted and serverless platform offering"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1891510114038825098) 2025-02-17T15:28Z 37.1K followers, 20.4K engagements
"YAWN 🥱 Will we ever figure out who blew up that pipeline It's a mystery After the US-RUS peace treaty and the lifting of sanctions will Germany get cheap energy again 🤔 Will retards look back and ask what the pipeline eco-disaster was all about Nah they'll just move along in their memory-less state"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1891813108966097210) 2025-02-18T11:32Z 43.1K followers, 37.4K engagements
"@csgriff_ Agree We build voice AIs and latency is really important - can't rely on Reasoning. Can you share some data on how KTransformer optimization affects time to first token"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1892176830787952767) 2025-02-19T11:38Z 31.6K followers, [--] engagements
"DJI already ships these features on its cheapest $200 drones. They can do face recognition and autonomous "targeting" . Targeting a tank in the final 1km attack is only a small modification. I guess it's not EASY to COPY the AI technology that PRC companies have developed. Both UKR and RUS - and also UKR supporters like the once great UK USA Germany etc. - have a STRONG INCENTIVE to develop this technology. Where is it @hsu_steve I am genuinely confused why AI on the commodity drones hasnt become status quo; it isnt that difficult to have a 95% adequate solution and much easier than the"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1892182781943328910) 2025-02-19T12:01Z 31.7K followers, 16.8K engagements
"MoonShot (PRC AI startup) released a reasoning model (Kimi) at the same time that DeepSeek R1 appeared with similar benchmark scores. It's just one of several frontier LLM developments that Western analysts are sleeping on (Qwen Doubao etc.). This new MoonShot paper develops an attention mechanism which is analogous to Mixture of Experts. In this case they use a mixture of sparse context blocks - the model directs attention adaptively. "MoBA achieves performance comparable to full attention while significantly improving computational efficiency.""
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1892190981899858143) 2025-02-19T12:34Z 31.7K followers, [----] engagements
""The AI co-scientist is a multi-agent AI system that is intended to function as a collaborative tool for scientists. Built on Gemini [---] AI co-scientist is designed to mirror the reasoning process underpinning the scientific method. Beyond standard literature review summarization and deep research tools the AI co-scientist system is intended to uncover new original knowledge and to formulate demonstrably novel research hypotheses and proposals building upon prior evidence and tailored to specific research objectives." Today we introduce an AI co-scientist system designed to go beyond deep"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1892238395440853354) 2025-02-19T15:42Z 31.7K followers, [----] engagements
"Grok3 did very well on this hard question. Other than a hallucination about physicist Roman Buniy (changing his name in the middle of the CoT) it does a good job. Q: Do isolated quantum systems typically evolve into macroscopic superposition states Key Points Isolated quantum systems typically evolve into macroscopic superposition states according to theoretical physics. This means large systems can exist in multiple distinct states at once like a ball being in different positions simultaneously. It's surprising that such behavior is common even for large systems when we usually think of"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1892555585792491767) 2025-02-20T12:43Z 31.7K followers, [----] engagements
"I sometimes teach an advanced graduate course on decoherence and quantum computation. The report Grok3 produced is comparable (although without equations) to the kind of term paper that students in the class might produce. MSU Physics is ranked [--] in the US and #1 in Nuclear Physics"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1892558126005588440) 2025-02-20T12:53Z 31.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Physics undergraduates have to master a mathematical technique called perturbation theory. It depends on characterizing different effects as BIG small smaller etc. What wordcel retards can't understand (or bc they are myopic Eurotards) is that the US-RUS-PRC nexus is BIG and the whole UKR thing is small. You can give up the small thing in favor of the BIG thing. Although I just said the UKR thing is *relatively* small (eg compared to a nuclear war between the US and Russia or China) still 1-2 thousand UKR soldiers are being killed EVERY DAY that we let this pointless conflict continue. The"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1893326026710614067) 2025-02-22T15:44Z 32.2K followers, [----] engagements
"NVDA wasn't hurt - they sold tons of GPUs to SGP and TW that were smuggled into China. But equipment makers like Applied Materials Lam Research etc. were hurt and will be hurt even more when they lose 30-40% of their total market due to indigenization (local suppliers come fully online in PRC). You have to differentiate btw chip makers (NVDA) and companies that are in the semiconductor supply chain. Eventually even NVDA might be competing head to head with eg Huawei on quality after domestic EUV comes online in PRC. Probably some years away"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1893390670909587789) 2025-02-22T20:01Z 32.3K followers, [----] engagements
"And then there were two: SMIC vs TSMC S. Korea's semiconductor technology falls behind China in all areas: survey SEOUL Feb. [--] (Yonhap) -- South Korea's semiconductor technology trailed behind that of China in all key areas as of last year marking a shift from previous assessments a survey showed Sunday. According to the survey of [--] local experts conducted by the Korea Institute of S&T Evaluation and Planning South Korea ranked second in high-intensity and resistance-based memory technology scoring [----] percent compared with China's [----] percent with the world's top technology level set at"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1893653781717426600) 2025-02-23T13:26Z 32.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Morgan Stanley report on humanoid robot value chain Good to see this mapped out - the eye-catching videos on social media are great but this is a more systematic analysis. "A common refrain we hear from investors is the lack of Western firms to add to their humanoid portfolio outside of TSLA and NVDA. In our view this is important information in and of itself as it represents the reality of the current humanoid ecosystem which we expect may need to change materially over time (see the West's current experience with EVs which has significant supply chain overlap with humanoids). Our research"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1893819214248689840) 2025-02-24T00:24Z 32.5K followers, 22.2K engagements
"@AnthropoceneMe1 Search on YT for other demos they shoot with mirrors and humans near the robot just to allay the CGI conspiracy theories. Unitree also won a robot competition in Japan with their dog which was much better than the Boston Dynamics competitor"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1894372058533961809) 2025-02-25T13:01Z 32.2K followers, [---] engagements
"While I doubt they will release the [--] trillion token pretraining dataset they might release the R1 RL dataset which is like 800k tokens IIRC. Something I should have mentioned in the OP is a rumor that R2 will be available before May. So they might release some R1 RL training data"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1894414849951576208) 2025-02-25T15:51Z 32.2K followers, [---] engagements
"@rwang07 @teortaxesTex Few people are less susceptible to US propaganda than a TW engineer working and living in Shanghai with his family. Also everyone can see what happened to UKR. Unless they are brainwashed by the DPP"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1894477889837400350) 2025-02-25T20:01Z 32.3K followers, [---] engagements
"Post below is top rated Quora reply to this question: [--] million Taiwanese work and live in China. How do they feel about living in mainland China the "enemy" of Taiwan There is a huge community of TW expats living in Shanghai working at places like SMIC or SMEE (DUV lithography machines). They drive awesome EVs eat at outdoor mini-malls that could be in Irvine CA (except the food is better) and have a really high quality of life. When I first met Robin Hanson about [--] years ago we got on the topic of the Aumann Agreement Theorem. Bayesian math aside I told Robin that the theorem doesn't apply"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1894920932658909346) 2025-02-27T01:22Z 43.1K followers, 63K engagements
"Taylor Ogan Snow Bull Capital: China's tech frontier the view from Shenzhen Part [--] Insights on China tech and life in Shenzhen Really love talking to Taylor. Money talks bullshit walks. Taylor Ogan is Chief Executive Officer of Snow Bull Capital based in Shenzhen China. His firm invests in Chinese technology companies with a focus on areas such as clean energy AI and automation. Steve and Taylor discuss: (00:00) - Introduction (01:23) - Shenzhen: The Tech Hub of China (04:14) - The Rise of Huawei and Its Impact (06:59) - DeepSeek: China's AI Breakthrough (11:32) - The Role of Government in"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1895090201896145178) 2025-02-27T12:34Z 41.1K followers, 42.2K engagements
"https://www.youtube.com/watchv=fmjR3me5s_Q&ab_channel=Manifold https://www.youtube.com/watchv=fmjR3me5s_Q&ab_channel=Manifold"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1895090204148670955) 2025-02-27T12:34Z 41.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Audio-only version and transcript: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/taylor-ogan-snow-bull-capital-chinas-tech-frontier-the-view-from-shenzhen-part-2 https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/taylor-ogan-snow-bull-capital-chinas-tech-frontier-the-view-from-shenzhen-part-2"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1895090206455345159) 2025-02-27T12:34Z 41.1K followers, [----] engagements
"A reader who understands Korean shared this SK TV show about education of gifted kids and "geniuses" in China. Deepseek founder did not make it into the under [--] testing / qualification program. But he did make it into the age [--] High-School program. 1st slide: Chinese Nationwide intellectual resource development plan By [--] years of age Test & Filter & Identify outstanding potential intelligence candidates By [--] years of age Ensure geniuses are surrounded by others only of similar caliber & accelerated curriculum & resources By [--] years of age Ensure geniuses are working in appropriate fields"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1902755457951039973) 2025-03-20T16:13Z 43.1K followers, 84.8K engagements
"Yawn 🥱 Toyota said its bZ3Xthe recently introduced model that starts at $15000was designed in China by the companys engineers in the country who worked with a local joint-venture partner. It is made in Guangzhou with Chinese batteries and driver-assistance software from Momenta a Chinese leader in that field. This couldnt happen without a Chinese supply chain said Masahiko Maeda head of Toyotas Asia business. Unless you localize its out of the question"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1919022277191930051) 2025-05-04T13:32Z 42.5K followers, 33.8K engagements
"Jensen Huang says H20 ban will cost NVDA $15B in revenue next year and the US $3B in tax revenue. The restrictions open the market in China for increased usage of Huaweis AI chips he said. If more companies use Huaweis chips and the Chinese company can refine its software Nvidias current CUDA software advantage could erode. Anybody who thought that one chess move to somehow ban China from H20s would somehow cut off their ability to do AI is deeply uninformed Huang said. If we dont compete in China and we allow the Chinese ecosystem to build a rich ecosystem because were not there to compete"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1924558764172312781) 2025-05-19T20:12Z 41.7K followers, 148K engagements
"Taiwanese semiconductor expert who has worked in China for [--] years: "I think the US's restriction on China's semiconductor development is actually promoting China's semiconductor development." [--]. Says PRC education system is turning out better engineers now than TW. TW students are more westernized and don't work as hard as in the past. PRC is "like when we were students [--] years ago" [--]. Says TW contribution to PRC advances are 50% for semiconductor fab and 30% for chip design. Less in other areas. These are lagging indicators. Describes very aggressive recruitment of TW engineers to PRC"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1926628191289946465) 2025-05-25T13:15Z 41K followers, 77.6K engagements
"I would say this thesis is rapidly becoming conventional wisdom among many Chinese technologists and even some US technologists. It would be interesting to hear a serious debate between an advocate for this view and a typical neoliberal economist who defends financialization of the US economy"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1936033307377926417) 2025-06-20T12:08Z 43.1K followers, 246.7K engagements
"@jsondowns @arty_burton The PRC system uses market forces. It's a finer question than the strawman you propose"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1936052881679139259) 2025-06-20T13:25Z 41K followers, [---] engagements
"Current allocation to this kind of research is less than 1% of the 1% of US GDP used currently to make dangerous machine gods SUPERBABIES are all the rage 🐣 https://t.co/m4jdHekc5H The genomic predictor in this recent paper captures h20.15 fluid intelligence (UKB) in direct genetic effects. (Note paper is not about editing.) Editing of the loci could give +10SD 🤔 https://t.co/lPzXSea4EF SUPERBABIES are all the rage 🐣 https://t.co/m4jdHekc5H The genomic predictor in this recent paper captures h20.15 fluid intelligence (UKB) in direct genetic effects. (Note paper is not about editing.)"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1938204112601948617) 2025-06-26T11:54Z 41K followers, [----] engagements
"Yet another consequence of 10x larger cohorts of STEM grads year after year: BLOOMBERG: China Biotechs Stunning Advance Is Changing the Worlds Drug Pipeline Chinese biotech's advance has been as ferocious as the nation's breakthrough efforts in AI and EVs eclipsing the EU and catching up to the US . The number of novel drugs in China for cancer weight-loss and more entering into development ballooned to over [----] last year far surpassing the European Union and nearly catching up to the USs count of about [----] an exclusive Bloomberg News analysis showed. And the drug candidates from the land"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1944575619636814260) 2025-07-14T01:52Z 43.1K followers, 157K engagements
"3 pages of careful prompt = IMO Gold with Gemini LLM. This is an independent effort (UCLA CS professor) not DeepMind. "This paper presents a novel methodology based on pipeline design and prompt engineering with the Gemini [---] Pro model a strong base model released by Google [--]. We solve [--] out of the [--] problems of IMO [----]. A persistent and critical challenge in the evaluation of LLMs is the issue of data contamination where test data from public benchmarks is inadvertently included in the vast pre-training corpora leading to inflated and unreliable performance metrics [--] [--]. To ensure a"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1948189075707469942) 2025-07-24T01:10Z 41.4K followers, 14.2K engagements
"Biggest threat to Chinese AI chip industry is Nvidia ecosystem lock-in. The hypothetical adopted by most people supporting chip bans was that PRC wouldn't be able to produce competitive hardware (leading to a big disadvantage in LLM development) but this is just factually wrong"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1948355529878757440) 2025-07-24T12:12Z 40.9K followers, [---] engagements
"First US Luckin Coffee in Greenwich Village Manhattan Iced latte $2 Luckin Coffee Dali Coming to America soon Soft-Powa https://t.co/HcIsTo82Mm Luckin Coffee Dali Coming to America soon Soft-Powa https://t.co/HcIsTo82Mm"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1948918322516332737) 2025-07-26T01:28Z 43.1K followers, 673.5K engagements
"Report from Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA) Burn Rate: Missile and Interceptor Cost Estimates During the U.S.-IsraelIran War . the United States and Israel both face an urgent need to replenish stockpiles and sharply increase production rates. The U.S. THAAD system accounted for almost half of all interceptions perhaps because of Israels insufficient Arrow interceptor capacity. As a result the United States used up about [--] percent of all its THAAD interceptors which would take three to eight years to replenish at current production rates READ THE WSJ ARTICLE INSTEAD"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1949427102538695123) 2025-07-27T11:10Z 41K followers, 11.2K engagements
"You can't go back in time. But perhaps look at this book. It's accessible to non-math people but also has insights for VERY mathy people who don't understand real physics. There's even a page that explains "tensors" - might be useful for would-be AI engineers ;-) If you're bored flip to a random page of this book and think about it. A physicist might have to flip a lot of pages to find something interesting but most people will learn stuff (about the universe) right away by doing this. https://archive.org/details/ThinkingPhysicsPracticalLessonsInCriticalThinking_201808/ Nvidia $NVDA CEO has"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1950890334256345427) 2025-07-31T12:04Z 42.6K followers, 21.9K engagements
"Huawei openPangu-Ultra-MoE-718B-model No Nvidia tech used to build this model - only Ascend AI chips CANN not CUDA. ". trained from scratch on Ascend NPU with a total parameter count of 718B and 39B activated parameters per token. The openPangu-Ultra-MoE-718B is trained on approximately [--] trillion tokens and equipped with the capability to switch between fast and slow thinking." Seems to be a state of the art model if not the best open model currently available. Link below - you can download it and use it"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1952375930967499112) 2025-08-04T14:27Z 41.1K followers, 29.1K engagements
"https://ai.gitcode.com/ascend-tribe/openpangu-ultra-moe-718b-model/blob/main/README_EN.md https://ai.gitcode.com/ascend-tribe/openpangu-ultra-moe-718b-model/blob/main/README_EN.md"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1952375933089837275) 2025-08-04T14:27Z 41.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Another SOTA open source model 👍 At 355B parameters (32B active MoE) it's a bit smaller than some of the 1T models we've seen. AFAIK they don't say what hardware was used to train this model but they used 23T training tokens. IIUC both Alibaba and Tencent are investors in which is a startup in Beijing. http://Zhipu.ai Presenting the GLM-4.5 technical report👇 https://t.co/QY1cAZxdwY This work demonstrates how we developed models that excel at reasoning coding and agentic tasks through a unique multi-stage training paradigm. Key innovations include expert model iteration with"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1954920227202118130) 2025-08-11T14:57Z 40.8K followers, [----] engagements
"I'm using various models for frontier research in theoretical physics. It's clear the models can read and understand (to a surprising degree) arxiv papers. They can combine ideas across multiple papers and make what seem to be original suggestions. Note there are advanced models (like the ones that won IMO gold) available to a small set of research collaborators that the general public has never seen. In the OP below he's talking about GPT-5 which is very good already. It takes a lot of domain expertise careful promptimg and time-consuming analysis of the AI output but it's clear their"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1958505697320006000) 2025-08-21T12:25Z 41.2K followers, 39.9K engagements
"Simple confidence measures basd on average log probability used to filter reasoning traces. Once again very nice research enabled by access to high quality open source models. Look for more and more powerful pipelines with "generator-verifier" architecture that prunes bad results. The verifier can be a model instance or some kind of mathematical function like the internal confidence metrics developed in this paper. Existing models are very powerful when used with this kind of pipeline and large token budgets. (Here 1E8 tokens used for AIME 2025.) "DeepConf leverages model-internal confidence"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1959204030325965150) 2025-08-23T10:40Z 42.5K followers, [----] engagements
"ByteDance has higher revenue and is WAY AHEAD of Meta in AI. Yet their market cap is a fraction of Meta's"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1961033746997457074) 2025-08-28T11:50Z 43.1K followers, 71.3K engagements
"YAWN 🥱 Even Meituan (delivery app company DoorDash) ships frontier LLM Meta. Post I quote below describes many SOTA technical tricks used in the 560B MoE model. Years ago I met with the coach of the PRC IMO team in Beijing. He told me they could field multiple teams of gold medalists each year if they wanted to. The performance of genAI teams in China supports this - I've lost count of the number of models produced there that are Meta and SOTA. Half the AI talent in the world is IN China and half the US AI talent is FROM China. For clueless Americans who don't bother to follow the largest"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1962121987087605801) 2025-08-31T11:55Z 41K followers, 18.5K engagements
"YAWN 🥱 Merz admits the truth. The clown show will continue for a while. The one big success in US foreign policy is forcing the EU into an adversarial relationship with RUS making them wholly dependent on us - hence their willingness to buy our energy at crazy high prices (dooming their own manufacturing industries including Germany's) and accept high Trump tariffs. The US can bleed Europe as it likes. Europe is becoming irrelevant other than as a US blood boy. (SK and JP take note.) Ofc the downside of this is the tight Sino-Russian alliance which makes them impervious to US threats (and"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1964292774720573610) 2025-09-06T11:41Z 42.6K followers, 24.6K engagements
"@highpiled_books The professor is expressing moral outrage shared by most of the world and perhaps by most Americans. He might be wrong or naive but even the most radical Zionist should consider carefully what the rest of the world thinks"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1968668066797011148) 2025-09-18T13:26Z 42.6K followers, [---] engagements
"Many such stories. If you know you know. If you don't like it you can just get high on Copium. People with skin in the game have to be more realistic. See my interview with Kyle on Manifold A group of Western VCs goes to China not to invest but to see what the competition is like. They realize that China is too far ahead on clean tech and decide the only way forward is to work with Chinese companies. One VC describing a visit to Chinese battery giant CATL: https://t.co/rw77kAzpmM A group of Western VCs goes to China not to invest but to see what the competition is like. They realize that"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1970115170337984710) 2025-09-22T13:17Z 41.7K followers, 11.3K engagements
"@krishnakaasyap @natolambert Yes but do revenues captured by AI companies from this justify their valuations and capex SWE is atm a relatively small portion of total corp earnings or GDP"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1970515742643695633) 2025-09-23T15:48Z 41.1K followers, [---] engagements
"Sharing some remarks from the Manifold Discord that arose from the Dwarkesh-Sutton conversation. There is no theorem that says "humans use pure RL see bitter lesson har har" - our brains could be kluge boxes that Nature evolved and our AIs that first reach AGI (or whatev) might be kluge boxes as well. "When humans learn something new we tend to learn very deep and general representations that we store. When we learn something new we just update these deeper representations" This mechanism seems quite hard to implement in current NN architectures - do humans update large numbers of "weights""
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1974821860266127731) 2025-10-05T12:59Z 40.9K followers, 11.7K engagements
"Don't miss this episode of Manifold 😀 Weeks When Decades Happen [--]. China Victory Day Parade and new military technology [--]. The SCO summit and its implications [--]. Modi's presence and the prospect of a Sino-Indian rapprochement [--]. Trump's South Asian blunder [--]. The Alaska Summit and the chances of peace [--]. Israel's loss of popular support on both the left and the right Seeking Truth From Facts: Weeks Where Decades Happen Manifold #95 The theme of this episode derives from Lenin: There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks when decades happen. Vladimir Ilyich Lenin (00:00) -"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1974884688041812014) 2025-10-05T17:09Z 41K followers, [----] engagements
"Hope this replicates Let's get @bryan_johnson on it right away In a landmark study [--] published in the latest issue of Cell (2025;188:122) a 44-week trial in aged macaques led by Guanghui Liu Si Wang and Jing Qu has delivered a scientific paradigm shift: genetically engineered human mesenchymal progenitor(stem) cells termed senescence-resistant cells (SRCs) can not only halt aging but roll back its clinical and functions negative effects. Delivered intravenously these supercharged cells sparked a rejuvenation trifectasharper cognition stronger bones and revitalized reproductive healthall"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1974981480871772359) 2025-10-05T23:34Z 43.1K followers, 77.6K engagements
"This is a good conversation. Just listened to it while exercising Both guys are thoughtful and the Anthropic pretraining lead has a lot of nitty gritty insight. Almost no theory even rough scaling that he points to as useful - everything is empirical. No definitive statements on pretraining data limits compute vs data size utility of synthetic data effects from contamination from AI output etc. https://youtu.be/YFeb3yAxtjEsi=XzHP23kkh2N8LtbL https://youtu.be/YFeb3yAxtjEsi=XzHP23kkh2N8LtbL https://youtu.be/YFeb3yAxtjEsi=XzHP23kkh2N8LtbL https://youtu.be/YFeb3yAxtjEsi=XzHP23kkh2N8LtbL"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1975680609872744613) 2025-10-07T21:52Z 40.9K followers, 28.1K engagements
"AI bubble map Note I think genAI will create enormous value over the medium to long term. But current valuations may be in bubble territory"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1975969912754786601) 2025-10-08T17:01Z 42.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Crazy $BABA has the Qwen team and another genAI team that just shipped a frontier 1T LLM 🤯 Ling-1T was developed by inclusionAI an initiative by Ant Group focused on Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). The Ling series of models is open-sourced by inclusionAI and represents the company's effort to create large language models. Ant Group is the fintech affiliate of Alibaba Group Holding and their AI efforts have been a recent focus of public reports. The development of Ling-1T and the broader Ling [---] series is part of Ant Group's strategy to advance AI technologies through the open-source"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1976006957979840718) 2025-10-08T19:29Z 41.1K followers, 16.9K engagements
"The Global AI Race: and the View from Beijing Manifold #96 Zixuan Li is Director of Product and genAI Strategy at He was educated at Renmin and Tsinghua University in China and at MIT and Carnegie Mellon. has released frontier open source LLMs but is largely unknown in the West except among AI experts. Steve and Zixuan discuss the AI race from the perspective of a startup in Beijing. Chapter markers: (00:00) - Introduction and Guest Background (05:14) - Evolution and Challenges (10:37) - AI Model Comparison and Industry Insights (34:04) - Pragmatic Views on AGI in China (35:51) - Specialized"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1976267287330959399) 2025-10-09T12:43Z 40.9K followers, 146.1K engagements
"OpenAI spent $5B on R&D compute alone in [----]. Probably higher in [----]. Very hard for smaller labs to keep up Latest Manifold episode shares perspective of smaller AI lab in Beijing: shipped one of best coding AIs GLM-4.6 http://Z.ai http://Z.ai"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1976993960985084251) 2025-10-11T12:51Z 40.9K followers, [----] engagements
"YT algo led me to this interesting series of videos. This young lady was born in PRC grew up in Canada worked as a consultant in Toronto but left for a job with ByteDance in Shanghai. She covers stuff like [---] bigtech work culture apartment and living costs in Chinese cities etc. If you watch you'll get a sense of how advanced the overall economy is there at least in Tier 1-2 cities (aggregate population 400M)"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1977072085441638798) 2025-10-11T18:01Z 41.2K followers, 19.2K engagements
"@othy_h She talks about work at ByteDance here I think: https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1977072092475802058 7:16 monthly income & expenses 11:09 pros and cons of [---] https://t.co/dRhb2ZCV5p https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1977072092475802058 7:16 monthly income & expenses 11:09 pros and cons of [---] https://t.co/dRhb2ZCV5p"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1977083097201140155) 2025-10-11T18:45Z 40.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Video primer on rare earths - but does not explore whether Chinese producers have proprietary methods for extracting highest quality/purity output that will be difficult to replicate in the US. I suspect it's not just about building infrastructure and tolerating pollution. The devil is in the details and this capability will be difficult to reproduce analogous to semiconductor mfg (but prob. not at the same complexity). Rare earths primer from a man who has a rare and unique skill to make the most complex topics understandable and fascinating. (Of course we all knew about yttria-stabilized"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1978078364628890020) 2025-10-14T12:40Z 40.8K followers, 14.6K engagements
"This is fine. as Jamie Dimon said another 20% to go before we hit peak bubble. I think the best story I can tell in favor of no-bubble is a huge breakthrough in agentic capability in the next year or two followed by record breaking revenue growth and adoption. But it's highly speculative - people who actually build AI applications using LLMs know how much the devil is in the details and not captured by demos that wow the credulous. OAI has to wager that this is going to happen but it might take longer and if so the bubble may pop in the interim. People who train models are mostly not"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1978426511976734878) 2025-10-15T11:43Z 40.9K followers, 47.3K engagements
"AI chips will improve a lot in the near term and model algos + software optimization will make training and inference more efficient. Huge amounts of $$$ and talent are attacking these challenges. But what does this mean for depreciation of chips purchased today 🤔 genAI is going to change society as much as the internet did but that doesn't mean [----] capex will have good returns. Seems more likely to play out like the [----] bubble. "Dark fiber" installed during that bubble eventually got used (+10-20y later) but many early investors were wiped out"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1978426515072155865) 2025-10-15T11:43Z 40.8K followers, [----] engagements
"1. Thing is great and enthusiasts can see the potential. In the medium or long run it will transform society. [--]. Will it generate $trillion revenues within a few years needed to justify early valuations #1 is not the bubble question #2 is. You can't address #2 without quantitative revenue projections that take into account rate of adoption depreciation of assets etc"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1978449125478666400) 2025-10-15T13:13Z 40.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Population-specific polygenic risk scores for people of Han Chinese ancestry Published today in Nature. Three authors from Genomic Prediction: Hsu Raben and Widen Dataset is Taiwan Precision Medicine Initiative (N500k). I believe it is the largest dataset of non-European genomes. I gave a colloquium on polygenic prediction at Academia Sinica (Taipei) in [----] the summer before covid which led to our participation in this large collaboration. Science may advance slowly but it does advance 🦾 (Oops - reposting bc I accidentally deleted this)"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1978611904693322084) 2025-10-16T00:00Z 40.9K followers, 75.3K engagements
"Psychometry and Philip K. Dick We have a tendency to assume that high V individuals such as famous writers or pundits or even philosophers have correspondingly high M and S (spatial) capabilities. In the interview I link below Dick recounts how he was forced to leave UC Berkeley because of the ROTC requirement. Despite his best efforts he could not reassemble an M1 rifle. He says that out of [----] ROTC students he was the only one unable to do so. In his high school geometry class he received an "F-" because he had zero comprehension of the diagrams or how to think through axiomatic proofs. In"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1979193893716660327) 2025-10-17T14:32Z 42.6K followers, 18.4K engagements
"M-V-S positively correlated but as PKD shows P(S high V high) is not [--] and P(S low V high) is nonzero"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1979253905465995405) 2025-10-17T18:31Z 42.5K followers, [----] engagements
"@obscuremediafan She has a figure in the book which indicates SD=15"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1979302387786616999) 2025-10-17T21:43Z 41.2K followers, [---] engagements
"C.N. Yang has passed age [---]. Yang was awarded the Nobel prize at [--] for parity violation (shared with T.D. Lee). But his greatest contribution was probably Yang-Mills theory now referred to as gauge theory. When I was a student the former designation was as common as the latter. Freeman Dyson called Yang "the pre-eminent stylist of 20th-century physics". "Dr. Yang's sense of mathematical beauty turns his least important calculations into miniature works of art and turns his deeper speculations into masterpieces." Dyson believed only Albert Einstein and Paul Dirac exceeded Yang as stylists in"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1979563163772408086) 2025-10-18T15:00Z 43.1K followers, 315.4K engagements
"https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1855409317937098864 I looked at thousands of photos at the Lianda museum yesterday in hopes of finding one of my father. https://t.co/dIb0tSgk8k The only one I found is below - it's a sports club photo and my dad is standing on the far left. He told me he had played basketball and volleyball in https://t.co/C80vXcyh1z https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1855409317937098864 I looked at thousands of photos at the Lianda museum yesterday in hopes of finding one of my father. https://t.co/dIb0tSgk8k The only one I found is below - it's a sports club photo and my dad is"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1979563167920615714) 2025-10-18T15:00Z 40.9K followers, 23.5K engagements
"He spent the war on the Lianda campus in Kunming = relocated Beida Tsinghua and Nankai Universities moved to escape Japanese occupation. My father was on campus at the same time (born 1923). Yang's father was a math professor. Yang said after arriving at Chicago to pursue his PhD under Fermi that his physics education at Lianda had been excellent despite the difficult conditions. As far as textbook physics he had little to learn from the US curriculum. https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1855050351755641106 https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1855050351755641106 Greetings from Kunming Today I will"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1979563170613404075) 2025-10-18T15:00Z 40.9K followers, 17.4K engagements
"GPU GLUT Why are purchase costs so high but rental rates so low for AI chips More evidence of a bubble caused by speculative capital allocation 🤔 There does not seem to be any shortage of compute and it's priced so low that capex ROI will be very low or negative esp. for the lower cost providers. Based on a five year depreciation cycle and 100% utilization smaller providers of AI compute are renting GPUs so cheaply they can't recover their initial investment cost - see FT estimate below in thread"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1979916818019123292) 2025-10-19T14:25Z 40.9K followers, 55.4K engagements
"Here to make the AGI god"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1980345251400413415) 2025-10-20T18:47Z 40.9K followers, 40.2K engagements
"@Yeahokay_imsure That's what I'm here for"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1980346825069732241) 2025-10-20T18:54Z 40.9K followers, [---] engagements
"Aegaeon: Effective GPU Pooling for Concurrent LLM Serving on the Market Beida and Alibaba Cloud Aegaeon has been beta deployed in Alibaba Cloud Model Studio for over three months currently serving tens of models that range from 1.8B to 72B parameters. It reduces the number of GPUs required for serving these models from [----] to [---] highlighting an 82% GPU resource saving"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1980350699537158344) 2025-10-20T19:09Z 40.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Manifold Meet Up in SF Thursday Oct [--] Avalon House [---] Palo Alto Ave San Francisco CA [-----] 5pm into the evening - we'll order delivery for dinner. Here to make the AGI god https://t.co/kQ2RsiM7Kr Here to make the AGI god https://t.co/kQ2RsiM7Kr"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1980375941592543286) 2025-10-20T20:49Z 40.9K followers, 12.6K engagements
"Szechuan dinner with the Prince of Darkness"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1980457970992574841) 2025-10-21T02:15Z 40.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Jack London traveled in Japan Korea and China. His predictions for the future of East Asia are found in his [----] short story The Unparalleled Invasion. "London also had considerable admiration for Chinese civilization and predicted that when its people woke up it would become a world superpower becoming so powerful by [----] that the nations of the West would rally together to curtail Chinas dominance. He found the Chinese to be intelligent clever pragmatic and extremely hard-working. Tragically however China had been held back by a conservative governing elite who feared innovation and who"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1981155351329468732) 2025-10-23T00:26Z 42.5K followers, 42.9K engagements
"AIs Win Math Olympiad Gold: Prof. Lin Yang (UCLA) Manifold #97 Lin Yang is a professor of computer science at UCLA. Recently he and his collaborator built an AI pipeline using commercial models such as Gemini ChatGPT and Grok that performed at the gold medal level on International Mathematics Olympiad problems. Steve and Lin discuss this research which relies on "verifier-refiner" LLM instances and large token budgets to reliably solve difficult problems. They discuss how these methods can be used to advance AI for scientific research legal analysis and complex document processing. (00:00) -"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1981378621643378862) 2025-10-23T15:14Z 40.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Manifold Meet Up In SF Tonight Thursday Oct [--] Avalon House [---] Palo Alto Ave San Francisco CA [-----] 5pm into the evening - we'll order delivery for dinner"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1981438487439298630) 2025-10-23T19:12Z 41K followers, [----] engagements
"Sometimes I just troll my AI doomer friends"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1981472038452941059) 2025-10-23T21:25Z 40.9K followers, [----] engagements
""This poignant video incorporates footage from the Bruce Weber documentary Let's Get Lost. Weber contrasted the age and drug ravaged Chet Baker of [----] with the young beautiful cult figure of the 1950s. The Santa Monica scenes have a suffused warm light that makes me yearn for Southern California." https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2010/01/time-after-time.html https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2010/01/time-after-time.html"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1982468802114683372) 2025-10-26T15:26Z 41K followers, [----] engagements
""At the time there was a lot of talk about West Coast jazz or cool jazz as some of the the New York or eastern musicians used to call it and they sort of put our style of music down out here in Los Angeles. I really don't think that they understood that musicians like Chet Baker and Art Pepper were really products of their environment the sun and the beach and the warmth and the romanticism. Chet's kind of playing was just indigenous to uh to jazz as the Beach Boys were later on to rock and roll. I loved Chet long before I met him because he personified for me the very thing that gave meaning"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1982471604404625811) 2025-10-26T15:37Z 41K followers, [----] engagements
"A House of Dynamite - Kathryn Bigelow and a talented cast. Hope it reminds young people what everyone who grew up during the Cold War knows - the nuclear balance of terror is precarious. "HITTING A BULLET WITH A BULLET" 🥱 YAWN . defense secretary played by Jared Harris complains that current missile defenses have only a [--] percent chance of intercepting a missile despite their $50bn price tag. . deputy national security adviser played by Gabriel Basso puts the figure at [--] percent. Thats based on data from controlled tests the movies screenwriter Noah Oppenheim told The Atlantic. So you can"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1983233762235433301) 2025-10-28T18:05Z 41K followers, [----] engagements
"I have a Grokipedia page: Much better than Wiki 🤔 AI is strong 🦾 https://grokipedia.com/page/Stephen_Hsu https://grokipedia.com/page/Stephen_Hsu"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1983277867334320573) 2025-10-28T21:01Z 41K followers, [----] engagements
"If only people paid attention to reality 🤔 Germany is car company with a country attached. For those of us that lived through the German glory years selling stuff to China from 1995-2015 what is going on is shocking: - Porsche : profit 99.5% - VW: profit 100% - Benz : Profit 33% Germany is car company with a country attached. For those of us that lived through the German glory years selling stuff to China from 1995-2015 what is going on is shocking: - Porsche : profit 99.5% - VW: profit 100% - Benz : Profit 33%"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1983958199821537730) 2025-10-30T18:04Z 41K followers, 16.2K engagements
"Yet another area where China is ahead: phased array radar. It's inexpensive and even used for autonomous driving. Gemini: China's commercial phased array radar technology has transitioned from primarily military origins to significant civilian applications driven by its inherent advantages of rapid electronic beam steering and multi-functionality. Key Characteristics Electronic Beam Steering: Unlike traditional radars that use mechanical rotation phased array radars use a fixed panel with a grid of individual antenna elements. By precisely controlling the phase (and sometimes amplitude) of"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1984283027338297622) 2025-10-31T15:35Z 41K followers, 24.7K engagements
"Re: APEC and US-China balance of power from Indian military analyst @PravinSawhney (Starting 4m into presentation): The Chinese leadership long understood that the United States does not naturally operate on the basis of genuine partnership with other nations. When Zbigniew Brzezinski informally proposed a G2 partnership between the U.S. and China Beijing remained silent. China as a civilizational state with its own worldview preferred to respond formally through its own conceptual framework. In [----] while still vice president Xi Jinping visited the U.S. and proposed the idea of a new type of"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1984298069605667225) 2025-10-31T16:35Z 41K followers, [----] engagements
"Hungarys former Ambassador to China offers a sober reality check on what the West refuses to see: that the global balance has already shifted. EU: We shot not one foot but both. Highlights from AI summary (sections from video): [--]. The New Cold War Framework: He contends that since about [----] the world has entered a new Cold War among three powersU.S. Russia and Chinamarked by multiple proxy conflicts (Ukraine Gaza etc.). The current phase is a preparatory stage for possible transition from cold to hot war. [--]. The Cold War versus World War III: He distinguishes between an unavoidable long Cold"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1984629017543163989) 2025-11-01T14:30Z 41.1K followers, [----] engagements
"AI Bubble Update Free cash flow vs Debt Financing (Bond issuance) The Atlantic: The economic nightmare scenario is that the unprecedented spending on AI doesnt yield a profit anytime soon if ever and data centers sit at the center of those fears. Such a collapse has come for infrastructure booms past: Rapid construction of canals railroads and the fiber-optic cables laid during the dot-com bubble all created frenzies of hype investment and financial speculation that crashed markets. Of course all of these build-outs did transform the world; generative AI bubble or not may do the same. . Here"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1984970734624481366) 2025-11-02T13:07Z 41.1K followers, 21.8K engagements
"The Atlantic: Heres How the AI Crash Happens WSJ: What Investors Learned From Tech Earnings in Charts The so-called Magnificent Seven make up a record 38% of the S&P [---] https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/tech-earnings-lessons-charts-df778001mod=hp_lead_pos2 https://archive.ph/dLmkK#selection-1041.0-1041.521 https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/tech-earnings-lessons-charts-df778001mod=hp_lead_pos2 https://archive.ph/dLmkK#selection-1041.0-1041.521"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1984970736830996651) 2025-11-02T13:07Z 41K followers, [----] engagements
"People foam at the mouth about @sama but if you listen carefully to what he says he's explicit about negative scenarios that might play out for OAI. He SAYS: we are betting on the optimistic scenario for returns to genAI. If you agree buy OAI. If you don't sell. What more can you ask from a CEO If you're an LP in a fund that buys OAI at $500B valuation and don't like it tell the GPs - don't complain about Sam. Apparently if you ask @sama how his $13 billion money-losing for profit not-for-profit can support $1.4 TRILLION of spend commitments he gets very defensive and starts to attack"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1984992569449697785) 2025-11-02T14:34Z 41.1K followers, 19.2K engagements
"Gradually people notice what it means for PRC to produce 10x the STEM talent of the US comparable to Rest of World combined. Very simple math: 4x US population kids 2x more likely to do hard STEM in college. More advanced reasoning: PISA L6 math ability = top 2% US kids but perhaps as many as top 5-10% of PRC kids. That could mean even larger advantage for PRC if you raise the threshold from "can do good STEM degree in US" to "top 2% of US kids". For people who understand Gaussian math or normal distributions: PRC advantage gets larger the further you go into the tail of the distribution. See"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1985006027171926448) 2025-11-02T15:28Z 42.6K followers, 56.5K engagements
"If you don't like NVDA or MSFT or AMD round trip deals with OAI don't complain about Sam complain to the boards of those companies IF Sam's optimistic scenario materializes those deals will be fine. Sam openly admits that they are betting on the optimistic scenario and that it's a BET - not a sure thing"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1985006568207683766) 2025-11-02T15:30Z 41K followers, [----] engagements
"I added the SKULL https://x.com/natolambert/status/1980657338726887662 Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky: Were relying a lot on Alibabas Qwen model. Its very good. Its also fast and cheap. We use OpenAIs latest models but we typically dont use them that much in production because there are faster and cheaper models. The valley is built on Qwen https://x.com/natolambert/status/1980657338726887662 Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky: Were relying a lot on Alibabas Qwen model. Its very good. Its also fast and cheap. We use OpenAIs latest models but we typically dont use them that much in production because there are"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1985134589799546911) 2025-11-02T23:59Z 41.1K followers, 16K engagements
"Now we are teaching AIs to do frontier work in physics and math 🦾 Met a Meta AI researcher. He studied Physics in China came to the US for a PhD in Physics and then fell in love with AI despite never having studied computer science. He watched Andrej Karpathy and Andrew Ng bought a GPU read every arXiv paper title daily and dived into Met a Meta AI researcher. He studied Physics in China came to the US for a PhD in Physics and then fell in love with AI despite never having studied computer science. He watched Andrej Karpathy and Andrew Ng bought a GPU read every arXiv paper title daily and"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1985187428697821637) 2025-11-03T03:29Z 41.1K followers, [----] engagements
"GPT5 based on MSFT most recent financials (Jul-Sept 2025):"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1985317889046360567) 2025-11-03T12:07Z 41.1K followers, [----] engagements
"I think it's the operating loss for OAI in the most recent quarter (over the summer) - that's why people are very interested in backing this out from the MSFT financial statement. It could mean that OAI is burning cash at a run rate of $40B/year on annual revenues of $20B Can that really be correct Not sure. On paper the MSFT investment itself probably went up hugely in value bc the recent OAI round valued them at $500B which is much higher than where MSFT came in"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1985370579126333543) 2025-11-03T15:36Z 41K followers, [---] engagements
"AI "involution" - easy for PRC tech company to spin up frontier models and give it away free 💀 Yet more "overcapacity" 😱 Meituan is a Chinese technology company that operates one of the country's largest "super apps" specializing in on-demand food delivery but also providing a wide range of local services like travel bookings movie tickets and in-store deals. Meituan has built a powerful AI assistant LongCat that utilizes the AI models it has developed. It recently just added web search features & voicecom + open src'd its latest Flash Omni model. It's clearing targeting individuals since"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1985374859501908339) 2025-11-03T15:53Z 41.2K followers, 12.9K engagements
"I've been testing a number of models in frontier theoretical physics. Among the best: GPT5 Gemini [---] Pro DeepSeek and Qwen-Max. I only recently started testing Grok in this way and it seems reasonably good. Occasionally I encounter some strange bugs which might be more due to their UI / prompt handling rather than the model itself which seems to have good math/physics capability. As a kid I never dreamt I would see such powerful tools for scientific exploration Weve released an early preview of Qwen3-Max-Thinkingan intermediate checkpoint still in training. Even at this stage when augmented"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1985436776735920155) 2025-11-03T19:59Z 41.1K followers, 18.4K engagements
"I haven't spent much time with Claude - it might be good. One test I like: point it to one of my papers on arxiv and test its understanding of the finer points. I can then ask it about related papers how to generalize the results etc. Because the topic is something I understand well I can get a good sense of the model's strengths and limitations"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1985485606663893179) 2025-11-03T23:13Z 41K followers, [---] engagements
"Train 10T parameter models on Huawei super nodes 🤔 You can't say these guys lack ambition. HW's Atlas 950/960 SuperPoD are truly innovative products. It offsets China's disadvantage in advanced node chip fabrication by increasing memory optimizing for FP4/8 & building large super node using HW's networking expertise. More smaller AI die connected like it's all in [--]. https://t.co/YV68AfhNCc HW's Atlas 950/960 SuperPoD are truly innovative products. It offsets China's disadvantage in advanced node chip fabrication by increasing memory optimizing for FP4/8 & building large super node using HW's"
[X Link](https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1985524734411329969) 2025-11-04T01:49Z 41K followers, 11.6K engagements
Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@hsu_steve steve hsu
steve hsu posts on X about china, ai, huawei, beijing the most. They currently have [-------] followers and [----] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours.
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- [--] Week [-------] +11%
- [--] Month [---------] -30%
- [--] Months [----------] +86%
- [--] Year [----------] -81%
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- [--] Month [--] -58%
- [--] Months [---] -15%
- [--] Year [---] -13%
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- [--] Week [------] +0.33%
- [--] Month [------] +1.10%
- [--] Months [------] +11%
- [--] Year [------] +37%
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Social Influence
Social category influence countries technology brands finance travel destinations stocks automotive brands social networks celebrities currencies us election
Social topic influence china, ai, huawei #66, beijing, israel, shanghai, iran, countries, ukraine, russia
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @hsusteve @tphuang @indexmetals @molsonhart @teortaxestex @doggydog1208 @dominic2306 @sealoftheend @taylorogan @dwarkeshsp @davidpgoldman @backto1970 @danwwang @nathanpmyoung @rnaudbertrand @todistetta @xenocosmography @richardhanania @timoplers @dpinsen
Top assets mentioned DeepSeek (DEEPSEEK) Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Robot Consulting Co., Ltd. (LAWR)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"Is Chain-of-Thought Reasoning of LLMs a Mirage . Our results reveal that CoT reasoning is a brittle mirage that vanishes when it is pushed beyond training distributions. This work offers a deeper understanding of why and when CoT reasoning fails emphasizing the ongoing challenge of achieving genuine and generalizable reasoning. . Our findings reveal that CoT reasoning works effectively when applied to in-distribution or near in-distribution data but becomes fragile and prone to failure even under moderate distribution shifts. In some cases LLMs generate fluent yet logically inconsistent"
X Link 2025-08-07T23:29Z 43.1K followers, 803.9K engagements
"What do researchers in the trenches say about the proximity of AGI "It's not near" shipped GLM-4.6 with a relatively small team. But AGI and the AI bubble are viewed very differently in Beijing. Gemini says: Many developers regard GLM [---] as a top-tier model for coding. One Reddit user called it "the BEST CODING LLM. Period" after using it successfully on a complex multi-component project that other models struggled with. Another user noted that GLM [---] worked perfectly when refactoring a massive 600+ line code file where Claude Sonnet [---] failed. http://Z.ai http://Z.ai The Global AI Race:"
X Link 2025-10-18T14:39Z 42.8K followers, 102.2K engagements
"Reuters: Shenzhen team completed a working prototype of a EUV machine in early [----] Government is targeting [----] for working chips but sources say [----] is more likely. . The team includes recently retired Chinese-born former ASML engineers and scientistsprime recruitment targets because they possess sensitive technical knowledge but face fewer professional constraints after leaving the company the people said. . Lin Nan ASML's former head of light source technology whose team at the Chinese Academy of Sciences' Shanghai Institute of Optics has filed eight patents on EUV light sources in 18"
X Link 2025-12-17T15:28Z 42.8K followers, 421.7K engagements
"SF dinner for JPM biotech conference - conversation turns to embryo selection and polygenic scores. These are someone's actual embryos"
X Link 2026-01-12T04:41Z 42.8K followers, 486.2K engagements
"Headed to Stanford's Hoover Institute today to interview Dan Wang for Manifold 😀 Really looking forward to this conversation Dan Wang's annual letter - highly recommend Hope to have him on Manifold soon😀 Some quotes: Probably the most underrated part of the Chinese system is the ferocity of market competition. Its excusable not to see that given that the party espouses so much Marxism. I would https://t.co/cpngrp4dqn Dan Wang's annual letter - highly recommend Hope to have him on Manifold soon😀 Some quotes: Probably the most underrated part of the Chinese system is the ferocity of market"
X Link 2026-01-20T15:54Z 42.8K followers, [----] engagements
"Recording with Dan Wang @danwwang at Hoover Institute"
X Link 2026-01-22T03:51Z 42.8K followers, [----] engagements
"English translation of The Morning Star of Lingao a sprawling collectively written science-fiction web novel. The writing of it became a phenomenon across Chinese internet forums in the 2010s: Its open source ethos and collaborative methods deeply appealed to Chinas burgeoning tech community. Beyond regular meetups among core contributors Lingaos creation fostered the formation of Chinas keyboard politicsonline communities where users engage in fierce debates about governance policy and national direction under the protection of pseudonyms. These conversations became staging grounds for"
X Link 2026-01-22T03:51Z 42.8K followers, [----] engagements
"AGI House Hackathon Saturday Jan [--] 11:00am 11:00pm Contact AGI House for invite. The advent of scientific discovery enabled by Artificial Intelligence Everyone will ship a project pushing the boundaries of science. We encourage projects in: Accelerated Physical Simulations Machine Learning for Solving Inverse Problems in Physics AI in Quantum Computing and Quantum Physics AI for Computational Fluid Dynamics AI-Assisted Material Science and Discovery Integration of AI with High-Performance Computing in Physics AI for Astrophysics and Cosmology Robotics and Control Systems in Physical"
X Link 2026-01-22T17:13Z 42.7K followers, [----] engagements
"Sunday 7am grind at LH gym followed by bicycle sprints on the empty streets of Berkeley"
X Link 2026-01-25T21:06Z 42.8K followers, [----] engagements
"Fun conversation with @Russwarne on his podcast. Cued to start at an important part of the discussion - why attitudes toward "eugenics" are very different in Asia compared to the West. https://youtu.be/7f4S58hmkIIsi=j8ZmbT2BNQL6Rz1N&t=690 https://youtu.be/7f4S58hmkIIsi=j8ZmbT2BNQL6Rz1N&t=690"
X Link 2026-01-26T22:57Z 42.8K followers, [----] engagements
"No one has shipped a pipeline with agents working productively with large token budgets on research problems like physics. The Generator-Verifier pipeline I discuss could be implemented similar to the backend of coding platforms like Cursor or Claude Code but no one has done it yet except in special cases (eg DM CoScientist) that are not available to the general public. Also it takes very expert evaluators to figure out whether an output is good or bad - eval for coding is more automatable (math may fall in this category for specific proofs but not new conceptualization)."
X Link 2026-01-27T14:29Z 42.8K followers, 11K engagements
"It's lack of incentives. If you get coding agents right you make $billions. Frontier research use is a much smaller TAM. The labs are content to just make the base model better and better at it without optimizing a special agentic pipeline. But there are some startups trying to make progress in this direction. I'd say give it [--] year. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016161718637093275 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016161718637093275"
X Link 2026-01-27T14:49Z 42.8K followers, [---] engagements
"Totally agree. But Beijing has (for instance) very high density of top researchers technologists capital allocators. Also true in Shenzhen Hangzhou etc. but not Kunming. For me ideal situation would be to spend most time in Yunnan and visit one of those other places once every few weeks. (Kind of like Michigan to SV/SF/Berkeley rhythm I have now.) https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016170649262424124 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016170649262424124"
X Link 2026-01-27T15:25Z 42.8K followers, [---] engagements
"@DoggyDog1208 @AngelicaOung IIRC the neighborhood of this apartment with the glass Arc de Triomphe is a nice new development with its own center of mass - ie malls and other attractions. I think it's also closer to the airport than the old city center"
X Link 2026-01-27T17:18Z 42.8K followers, [---] engagements
"@CarlZha At one time I dated a girl from HK related to LKS. Not sure which way the hypergamy went ;-)"
X Link 2025-07-31T11:43Z 42.9K followers, [---] engagements
"Functional size of PRC economy is 2x US economy. "Competition between the US and China will shape the 21st century but have the Chinese already leap-frogged the Americans It looks as if they might have done." From @hsu_steve https://t.co/UllLSEkN51 "Competition between the US and China will shape the 21st century but have the Chinese already leap-frogged the Americans It looks as if they might have done." From @hsu_steve https://t.co/UllLSEkN51"
X Link 2025-10-21T17:47Z 43.1K followers, 58.2K engagements
"I think Ive published the first research article in theoretical physics in which the main idea came from an AI - GPT5 in this case. The physics research paper itself (on QFT and state-dependent quantum mechanics) has been published in Physics Letters B. I've written an accompanying AI paper describing the Generator - Verifier method I used to obtain useful research results from frontier LLMs. It may be of interest to other physicists and to AI researchers. From the AI paper: . models sometimes make very simple mistakes (e.g. in calculation) and also even make incorrect conceptual leaps that"
X Link 2025-12-03T01:51Z 43K followers, 470.8K engagements
"Latest benchmarks for Kimi [---] and Qwen-Max-Thinking. I really don't see a US lead vs open source Chinese models. The Chinese models are free and much cheaper to run. DeepSeek V4 might leapfrog all of these models"
X Link 2026-01-28T01:18Z 43K followers, 61.3K engagements
"YAWN 🥱 Nothing to see here folks. Epstein did not blackmail powerful people he was just a smart money manager and tax advisor who liked young girls. Don't succumb to "conspiracy theory""
X Link 2026-01-30T20:27Z 42.9K followers, 50.5K engagements
""I have been asked and wrongly acquiesced into participating in things that have ranged from the morally inappropriate to the ethically unsound . . . From helping Bill to get drugs in order to deal with consequences of sex with russian girls to facilitating his illicit trysts with married women to being asked to provide adderall fro sic bridge tournaments." https://www.ft.com/content/cb16718c-7e03-4d0e-ba29-a3c5604dbab0 https://www.ft.com/content/cb16718c-7e03-4d0e-ba29-a3c5604dbab0 https://www.ft.com/content/cb16718c-7e03-4d0e-ba29-a3c5604dbab0"
X Link 2026-01-30T20:32Z 42.8K followers, [----] engagements
"Re: Chinese characters"
X Link 2026-01-31T04:03Z 42.8K followers, [----] engagements
"Dan and I articulate the worldview of the Industrial Party (realist Chinese nationalists) in contrast to the Sentimental Party. Gemini: Industrial Party ( Gngy dng) Core Beliefs: Advocates for rapid industrialization technological determinism and state-led development. Characters: Typically technocrats engineers and scientists. They believe that a nation's strength is determined by industrial capacity. Sentimental Party ( Qnghui dng) Core Beliefs: Emphasizes culture history humanistic values and political philosophy. Characters: Intellectuals literati and media personalities who often"
X Link 2026-01-31T16:37Z 42.9K followers, 12.4K engagements
"Jeffrey Epstein last interview. Ari Ben-Menashe (former Israeli spy) said that when he was first introduced to the young Epstein by Robert Maxwell he was less than impressed. https://www.youtube.com/watchv=dOSIZzcV2ks https://www.youtube.com/watchv=dOSIZzcV2ks"
X Link 2026-02-01T02:46Z 43K followers, 33.9K engagements
"A little garbled - for example Clinton did not creat Fannie Mae FDR did. But it's true that subprime mortgages were the cause of the [----] financial crisis. A real quant would find JE pedestrian and his way of explaining things is midwit and below altho sometimes he uses a good analogy or illustrative example. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018029605626708211 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018029605626708211"
X Link 2026-02-01T18:32Z 42.9K followers, [---] engagements
"Not sure if real British Karen lashes out at an Indian immigrant for buying a BYD. The absolute state of the West. https://t.co/PR1wPhSB9U British Karen lashes out at an Indian immigrant for buying a BYD. The absolute state of the West. https://t.co/PR1wPhSB9U"
X Link 2026-02-02T14:49Z 42.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Biggest brains on planet at IAS embracing AI for research Astronomer David Kipping reports on special meeting at the Institute for Advanced Study"
X Link 2026-02-02T17:27Z 42.9K followers, [----] engagements
"@parella_anthony Sure physicists and astrophysicists at IAS are stupid. Maybe watch the first 10m of the video and update your priors. Are you familiar with Generator-Verifier or other agentic pipelines now in use"
X Link 2026-02-02T18:45Z 42.9K followers, [--] engagements
"There are terabytes of hard drives retrieved from JE's safe that they drilled. These presumably contain the actual videos captured by the camera system in his house - ie massages sex acts etc. By law they all have to be released as well but we have not seen any of it. Everything so far is "limited hang out" Among the photos released are FBI pictures of the safe binders from the safe and the hard drives"
X Link 2026-02-03T18:42Z 42.9K followers, [----] engagements
"The future's so bright we gotta wear shades 😎 Anthropic just took a big swipe at OpenAI's decision to put ads in ChatGPT. Anthropic is airing ads mocking ChatGPT ads during the Super Bowl and they're hilarious 😅 Anthropic is also committing to no ads in Claude https://t.co/LR1v4xz9ds https://t.co/PXoaZtmCWA Anthropic just took a big swipe at OpenAI's decision to put ads in ChatGPT. Anthropic is airing ads mocking ChatGPT ads during the Super Bowl and they're hilarious 😅 Anthropic is also committing to no ads in Claude https://t.co/LR1v4xz9ds https://t.co/PXoaZtmCWA"
X Link 2026-02-04T18:30Z 43K followers, [----] engagements
""We are a minuscule sample of agonized matter comprising genetic survival monsters fished from a cosmic ocean of vile mutants by a pitiless killing machine of infinite appetite.""
X Link 2026-02-06T04:26Z 43K followers, [----] engagements
"It definitely does but the semiconductor industry has been a very "normie" tech sector for decades. Think of engineers at TSMC or Samsung or Intel. It's not driven by ideological e/acc startup energy. In fact almost no one in the actual semiconductor industry groks the kind of stuff that people who attend a Nick Land meetup in SF talk about Semiconductor people do know a heck of a lot more about electrons and quantum tunneling or thermal noise than is common in SF/SV. Few software people or e/acc ideologues know much about hard physics 🤔 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020297773002989730"
X Link 2026-02-08T00:44Z 43K followers, [---] engagements
"Congrats to Alex Cooper Ben Warner and their team at Electric Twin 🦾 Can LLMs replace standard survey and focus group methodology Mechanistic intuition: LLMs approximate a compressed culture model Human survey responses are heavily shaped by shared cultural scripts + salient identity cues + contextual framing. LLMs are trained on the textual exhaust of those scripts and can reproduce their conditional structure. Therefore for many prompts LLMs behave like a compressed simulator of what people like X say about Y when asked Z. That doesnt imply truth or causal understanding but it does imply"
X Link 2026-02-12T14:42Z 43.1K followers, 10.3K engagements
"I trained with Enson in Tokyo and brother Egan in Honolulu. Never met Frank Shamrock but I'm a huge fan https://youtube.com/shorts/6gviRIR19Zcsi=N-UmtVmlPnNfbs3S https://youtube.com/shorts/6gviRIR19Zcsi=N-UmtVmlPnNfbs3S"
X Link 2025-01-11T19:35Z 43K followers, [----] engagements
"The dawn of a new intelligence"
X Link 2025-10-23T20:56Z 43.1K followers, [----] engagements
"You are constantly scanned like this without knowing it. "This photo was taken with a camera modified with a filter to capture the infrared light emitted by a face recognition camera. I had to shoot the subject in total darkness in order to cut out visible light and allow the camera to pick up on the infrared beams of a face recognition camera""
X Link 2026-01-25T21:02Z 43.1K followers, 253.7K engagements
"Industrial Maximalism and Its Discontents: Dan Wang on US-China Competition Manifold #104 Great conversation with @danwwang at Hoover. 0:00 - Introduction and Welcome 02:14 - Breakneck - Dan's huge book 05:00 - China's Technological and Political Landscape 21:07 - Industrial Maximalism and its Discontents 47:59 - Chinese Researchers in Silicon Valley and Tsinghua 51:09 - Excerpts from Dan's [----] annual letter 52:56 - China's Market Competition and Innovation 56:34 - AI Automation and Future Risks https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016885949435949489"
X Link 2026-01-29T14:47Z 43.1K followers, 48.9K engagements
"The term industrial maximalism () in the Chinese context refers to a development philosophy that prioritizes the establishment of a "complete industrial system". This ideology suggests that a nation must develop every possible type of industry that exists globally regardless of its starting point to ensure national independence and scientific leadership. The Rise of the "Industrial Party" () In the 2000s and 2010s an online intellectual movement known as the Industrial Party emerged in Chinese forums. This group champions: Technological Determinism: The belief that a countrys political and"
X Link 2026-01-30T15:43Z 43K followers, 79K engagements
"Great convo between Roy and Bobby We're getting closer to the first map of the human brain at 20nm precision using PEEM (Photoelectric Effect Microscopy) and Bobby is leading the way. This resolution is orders of magnitude finer than the size of an individual neuron. The challenge is how to scale the technology to map an entire brain. I need to tell you something and please hold your eyerolls. I've started a podcast. I know I know hear me out. https://t.co/qHo6ReNtdr I need to tell you something and please hold your eyerolls. I've started a podcast. I know I know hear me out."
X Link 2026-02-03T16:06Z 43.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Grok analysis of an Epstein photo going around: The photo attached to the X post appears to be a cropped or shared version of an image originally documented by the FBI during an August [--] [----] search of Jeffrey Epstein's residence on Little St. James island in the U.S. Virgin Islands. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018744674606096430 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018744674606096430"
X Link 2026-02-03T17:53Z 43.1K followers, 30.6K engagements
"Lunch was at AGI House - photos below @JvNixon @xenocosmography Lunch with Nick Land today. He notes that the same people who predict ASI and existential risk should also take seriously that we might be in a Simulation. Briefly if our universe allows artificial sentience and the creation of virtual worlds in which to place that sentience https://t.co/RBbeY3cmI4 Lunch with Nick Land today. He notes that the same people who predict ASI and existential risk should also take seriously that we might be in a Simulation. Briefly if our universe allows artificial sentience and the creation of virtual"
X Link 2026-02-06T04:26Z 43K followers, [----] engagements
"This 2% of GDP is coming from just [--] companies. We used to call them "monopolies""
X Link 2026-02-07T14:30Z 43.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Donald Knuth on human capital flows during the Cold War: "The system channelled anybody with an aptitude for science into physics." Nowadays I guess every smart kid should be thinking about AI AGI and ASI WSJ: Bigtech spending on AI will exceed 2% of US GDP in [----]. Gemini: The maximum percentage of US GDP spent on nuclear weapons in any given year was approximately 3.4% to 4.2% likely occurring between [----] and [----]. Reminds me of an earlier era of technological competition. https://t.co/B8cvp5e263 WSJ: Bigtech spending on AI will exceed 2% of US GDP in [----]. Gemini: The maximum percentage"
X Link 2026-02-07T14:43Z 43.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Re: the argument that this is just BigTech oligarchs gunning for AGI most of this infra spend is for inference (not model training) compute that is meant to be paid for by customers. The capex required for R&D alone is much less - current investment is predicated on future revenues arising from customer usage of AI. How long will it take for these future revenues to materialize That's the bubble question. Even if AI gets really good adoption is gated by human decision makers. I'm a founder of an AI startup that sells to Enterprise. I see this firsthand. Now compare this"
X Link 2025-09-24T12:43Z 43.1K followers, 68.1K engagements
"Ruemmler CIA Director Brennan and Epstein. @nytimes Ruemmler took Epstein to meet CIA Director John Brennan. Were gonna need more than her 90-day notice https://t.co/YbLSGOgWjc @nytimes Ruemmler took Epstein to meet CIA Director John Brennan. Were gonna need more than her 90-day notice https://t.co/YbLSGOgWjc"
X Link 2026-02-13T03:30Z 43.1K followers, 18.3K engagements
"Gemini: The GLM-5 large language model was developed and trained entirely on domestically produced Huawei Ascend chips and the MindSpore AI framework without the use of US hardware like NVIDIA GPUs. Model Development & Training Developer: Zhipu AI a Chinese AI company that is a spin-off from Tsinghua University. The company is also known internationally as after a [----] rebranding. Hardware Used: The entire training pipeline from data processing to the final run was conducted using Huawei's Ascend Atlas 800T A2 servers which incorporate Huawei's in-house Ascend AI processors. This was a"
X Link 2026-02-13T18:33Z 43.1K followers, 14.8K engagements
"Generator-Verifier harness = huge improvement as I discuss in my paper on AI for Physics/Math. This is the worst it will ever be. https://t.co/hR3Gx5L5XN This is the worst it will ever be. https://t.co/hR3Gx5L5XN"
X Link 2026-02-14T15:31Z 43.1K followers, [----] engagements
"NPC bounded cognition🎈🐒 AGI built by ape brains only 100ky after humans evolved (in 15Gy old universe) suggests that we are not in base reality 🤔 What will ratio = # of AGIs to wet brains be in +1My Most AGIs virtual https://www.youtube.com/watchv=aihq6jhdW-Qt https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2019/10/the-quantum-simulation-hypothesis-do-we.html https://www.youtube.com/watchv=aihq6jhdW-Qt https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2019/10/the-quantum-simulation-hypothesis-do-we.html"
X Link 2023-07-28T13:07Z 43.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Chinese companies have reduced the cost of LiDAR by almost 100x in the last [--] years. Unless they had help from Aliens or found a crashed UFO they did this without copying anyone. When you're building robots and autonomous vehicles in China you benefit from the proximity of this LiDAR industry (not to mention AI vision DL EV hardware . expertise) and it's no surprise they lead in vehicle autonomy and safety systems"
X Link 2025-01-09T14:06Z 43.1K followers, 253K engagements
"YAWN 🥱 FT: CEO of Barclays with Epstein girl dressed up as Snow White Nah just a CONSPIRACY THEORY"
X Link 2026-02-02T15:01Z 43.1K followers, [----] engagements
"https://www.ft.com/content/6a760873-606b-46b9-8cdc-af23b8b8ce2e https://www.ft.com/content/6a760873-606b-46b9-8cdc-af23b8b8ce2e"
X Link 2026-02-02T15:01Z 43.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Nick Land in SF: Acceleration FTW @xenocosmography"
X Link 2026-02-04T04:08Z 43.1K followers, 33.6K engagements
"Lunch with Nick Land today. He notes that the same people who predict ASI and existential risk should also take seriously that we might be in a Simulation. Briefly if our universe allows artificial sentience and the creation of virtual worlds in which to place that sentience what are the odds that we ourselves are in base reality The "Gnostic" view focuses on the revelation that we are indeed in a Simulation - with its own logic natural laws esoteric phenomena etc. that may not be captured by the simple Physics humans brains can write down. Land: The Calvinist side is thinking about"
X Link 2026-02-05T16:45Z 43.1K followers, 34.5K engagements
"WSJ: Small Start-Up Helps the CIA To Mask Its Moves on the Web [--] years ago The CIA through In-Q-Tel is investing in a revved-up version of the software which can bounce digital traffic around the Web anonymously as well as rights to an equity stake in SafeWeb should the company go public. Neither side will disclose financial details. . SafeWeb says the agency also could use the technology as a secure way for its "assets" or contacts to communicate with CIA headquarters. The CIA also suggests that it may one day build a global network made up of Triangle Boys and servers equipped with"
X Link 2026-02-06T15:25Z 43.1K followers, 64.1K engagements
"WSJ: Bigtech spending on AI will exceed 2% of US GDP in [----]. Gemini: The maximum percentage of US GDP spent on nuclear weapons in any given year was approximately 3.4% to 4.2% likely occurring between [----] and [----]. Reminds me of an earlier era of technological competition. Arguably AI is more positive-sum than nukes but don't ask a Doomer about this 😉"
X Link 2026-02-07T14:30Z 43.1K followers, 22.6K engagements
"I mentioned to Nick Land and some other accelerationists that one could defend the view that despite all the interesting interactions between markets culture and technology ("techno-capitalism") human progress towards AI was largely gated by one thing: raw compute power and the associated capability to store and transmit data. (Sutton's Bitter Lesson) Without these capabilities (mastery of ATOMS) no amount of human algo ingenuity would have gotten us to this point in AI development. Neural nets have been studied for 80+ years (McCulloch-Pitts neuron 1943) but only in the last [--] years have we"
X Link 2026-02-07T15:23Z 43.1K followers, 29.7K engagements
"Because pricing a PE transaction pays much more than hard EE in the financialized US fake GDP economy. US MIC's slow cadence goes far beyond just engines. New F-35s are being delivered w/o radar until whenever APG-85 is ready bc it is not ready yet & APG-81 doesn't install on the new radar mounting. Imagine that Lockheed is delivering a whole bunch of radarless fighter jet. https://t.co/xLy1FRXkJ8 US MIC's slow cadence goes far beyond just engines. New F-35s are being delivered w/o radar until whenever APG-85 is ready bc it is not ready yet & APG-81 doesn't install on the new radar mounting."
X Link 2026-02-08T21:37Z 43.1K followers, 12.5K engagements
"14+ terabytes of Epstein data is similar in size to TOKEN TRAINING DATASETS used for LLMs. Was Epstein correspondence comparable to the entire Internet No of course not. 14+ terabytes of data probably means LOTS AND LOTS OF VIDEO. Some of this video presumably identifies both victims and abusers and may have been kept by JE for blackmail purposes. CSAM = Child Sexual Abuse Material. Everything you have seen so far is a LIMITED HANG OUT. DOJ might have much more explosive (video) information it has not released. The government has at least [--] terabytes of data from Epstein and they admit there"
X Link 2026-02-10T16:26Z 43.1K followers, 47.5K engagements
"YAWN 🥱 Spy camera footage from inside Epstein properties reveal victims were secretly filmed - Channel [--] News UK Official documents state that DOJ has 15TB of Epstein data. [--] TB [----] hours standard definition (SD) video Email Text and even photo releases thus far are a tiny subset of the total amount of data DOJ has. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021723526026416402 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021723526026416402"
X Link 2026-02-11T23:10Z 43.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Dreamers and Doomers: Jeremy Nixon at AGI House Manifold #105 Jeremy Nixon is a prominent AI researcher entrepreneur and the co-founder of AGI House a leading "hacker house" community for artificial intelligence developers in Silicon Valley. He studied Applied Math Computer Science and Economics at Harvard and was previously a researcher at Google Brain. This footage was shot for a documentary project "Dreamers and Doomers" about the SF Bay Area and the dawn of AGI. (00:00) - Dreamers and Doomers (01:47) - Introduction and Welcome (05:56) - Jeremy Nixon's biography (08:48) - AGI House and"
X Link 2026-02-12T14:28Z 43.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Audio-only version and transcript: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/dreamers-and-doomers-jeremy-nixon-at-agi-house-105 https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/dreamers-and-doomers-jeremy-nixon-at-agi-house-105"
X Link 2026-02-12T14:28Z 43.1K followers, [----] engagements
"YAWN 🥱 Spy services have kompromat on large numbers of pols and execs. Epstein file emails = window into a very dirty world. Spy services can see all of this stuff in real time and hold it over our "leaders" 🤡 In the case of Angela Merkel (and all EU/German pols) NSA/CIA didn't have to hack their phones - they could intercept every packet. That's why Huawei telco gear ist verboten. Israeli spyware firm Paragon ACCIDENTALLY reveals own hacking dashboard on LinkedIn Phone numbers messaging apps ready-to-hack targets all visible in real time The company co-founded by Epstein-linked Ehud Barak"
X Link 2026-02-12T15:29Z 43.1K followers, [----] engagements
"If any of this stuff is news to you or you don't understand how malware works on smartphones or you don't understand packet routing and large scale surveillance resulting from telco-intel service cooperation you should QUESTION your own understanding of history politics geostrategy "conspiracy theories" etc. In other words you might be just another useful idiot with inflated epistemic confidence. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021977117681209700 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021977117681209700"
X Link 2026-02-12T15:58Z 43.1K followers, [----] engagements
"".probes the model with restricted vs. unrestricted prompts collects internal activations at every layer then uses SVD to extract the geometric directions in weight space that encode refusal. It projects those directions out of the model's weights; norm-preserving no fine-tuning no retraining. . Remember: RLHF/DPO is not durable. It's a thin geometric artifact in weight space not a deep behavioral change. This removes it in minutes. AI policymakers need to be aware of the arcane art of Master Ablation and internalize the implications of this truth: every open-weight model release is also an"
X Link 2026-02-14T02:51Z 43.1K followers, 18.2K engagements
"Prediction markets beat professional economists YAWN 🥱 "We begin by showing that the probability distributions implied by Kalshi markets are well-behaved and broadly consistent with those from more established financial instruments. We find that in several episodes they allocate probability mass in ways that may reflect the [--] range of plausible macroeconomic outcomes better than traditional financial derivative or survey-based forecasts." https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022703674506776805 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022703674506776805"
X Link 2026-02-14T16:05Z 43.1K followers, [----] engagements
"". we evaluate the forecasting performance of Kalshi markets relative to the Survey of Market Expectations run by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY). For the federal funds rate forecasts [---] days (3 FOMC meetings) ahead Kalshis mean absolute error is very similar to that of professional forecasters. But unlike the surveywhich provides a snapshot every six weeks of a modal pathKalshi offers a continuously updating full distribution. We provide a preview of these results in Figure [--]. This figure shows the mean absolute prediction error averaging across all FOMC meetings plotted"
X Link 2026-02-14T16:07Z 43.1K followers, [---] engagements
"@pappy_neal Interesting idea How frequently does the ETF capital allocation update based on app sentiment statistics"
X Link 2023-01-02T21:50Z 41K followers, [---] engagements
"Despite the mistake about miltech (understandable since it's part of US propaganda justifying the chip war) the WIRED article by @page88 is a good read. Pro tip: in PRC they believe with justification that anything TW JP or Koreans can do they can do better"
X Link 2023-04-02T00:31Z 41.1K followers, [----] engagements
"From Manifold podcast with @RichardHanania and @robkhenderson My take on why there are more S. Asians than E. Asians in top govt and corporate positions in the West. Multiple factors: culture language personality human capital flows Starts 1h10m https://www.youtube.com/watchv=c6Ufin6qtGs&t=4200s https://www.youtube.com/watchv=c6Ufin6qtGs&t=4200s"
X Link 2023-07-13T12:47Z 40.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Taylor Ogan Snow Bull Capital: China's tech frontier the view from Shenzhen Manifold #47 I really enjoyed this conversation @TaylorOgan relocated his fund to Shenzhen in order to have direct access to information on Chinese tech companies. https://www.youtube.com/watchv=iehHON07UHI https://www.youtube.com/watchv=iehHON07UHI"
X Link 2023-11-02T11:58Z 41.1K followers, 28.4K engagements
"Sony IMX989 = 50MP [--] inch sensor for flagship phone cameras. Replaced by China CMOS. 🤔 US Chip War hurting Nvidia Sony AMAT ASML . China supply chain will be fully indigenized. To understand China tech ecosystem listen to latest Manifold: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/taylor-ogan-snow-bull-capital-chinas-tech-frontier-the-view-from-shenzhen-47 [--] effect of Western chip sanctions - effort to fully de-risk from Japanese supply chain Sony IMX989 currently best CMOS in the market used by Vivo/Xiaomi/Oppo https://t.co/LlFsv5TQQl Omnivision replacing Sony w/ full lineup of CMOS sensors OV50H"
X Link 2023-11-02T12:46Z 41.1K followers, 37.5K engagements
"Don't miss this episode Some topics covered: [--]. Drone deliveries and Robo-Taxis in Shenzhen [--]. Chinese EV makers and LIDAR [--]. Investing in A/H shares of Chinese companies [--]. How Snow Bull derives investment alpha from factory / site visits Taylor Ogan Snow Bull Capital: China's tech frontier the view from Shenzhen Manifold #47 I really enjoyed this conversation @TaylorOgan relocated his fund to Shenzhen in order to have direct access to information on Chinese tech companies. https://t.co/qfpTtnRBom Taylor Ogan Snow Bull Capital: China's tech frontier the view from Shenzhen Manifold #47 I"
X Link 2023-11-03T15:59Z 41.1K followers, [----] engagements
"30:44 Challenges facing Tesla in China 40:11 Evolution of smart cars autonomous vehicles and self driving 50:48 LIDAR technology and autonomous driving 59:08 BYD China energy independence power grid 1:14:04 Downstream impact of China leading in tech and electric vehicles"
X Link 2023-11-16T12:34Z 41.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Audio-only and transcript: Don't miss related conversation with @TaylorOgan of Snow Bull Capital in Shenzhen covering EVs LIDAR manufacturing in China. https://www.youtube.com/watchv=iehHON07UHI&ab_channel=Manifold https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/chinas-ev-market-dominance-and-the-challenges-facing-tesla-48 https://www.youtube.com/watchv=iehHON07UHI&ab_channel=Manifold https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/chinas-ev-market-dominance-and-the-challenges-facing-tesla-48"
X Link 2023-11-16T12:34Z 41.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Graph: [--] developing / middle income countries vs OECD. While more people are concentrated in the lower SES circles than in OECD the students in the top 20% SES groups in Turkey & Vietnam surpass affluent OECD students. Human capital implications for further development"
X Link 2023-12-06T01:41Z 41.8K followers, [----] engagements
"Figure on right shows PRC STEM graduates 5x larger than US in [----]. Much larger than entire G7 combined For the experts: advantage would be even greater if we made a cut on eg PISA Level [--] math ability. I interviewed Glenn on Manifold: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/glenn-luk-china-s-economic-evolution-gdp-and-high-speed-rail-58 Thinking about stock and flow of comparative advantage in STEM and applied sciences sectors. These charts represent the flow of new STEM resources into the STEM labor pool stock. Function of total number of college graduates and % STEM. https://t.co/rrWvT2uWdS"
X Link 2024-07-05T11:25Z 41.6K followers, 17.3K engagements
"@ramos_reports @JohnR_151 @Molson_Hart Re: China investing Listen to my podcast with US hedge fund manager based in Shenzhen @TaylorOgan He analyzes Chinese companies visits their factories etc. https://manifold1.com/episodes/taylor-ogan-snow-bull-capital-chinas-tech-frontier-the-view-from-shenzhen-47 https://manifold1.com/episodes/taylor-ogan-snow-bull-capital-chinas-tech-frontier-the-view-from-shenzhen-47"
X Link 2024-07-24T13:45Z 41.1K followers, [---] engagements
"Taylor communicating with us from the future - in Shenzhen. Our Manifold convo: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/taylor-ogan-snow-bull-capital-chinas-tech-frontier-the-view-from-shenzhen-47 Im at the Huawei launch of the worlds first tri-fold phone and new intelligent driving conference in Shenzhen. Huaweis timing is not a coincidence; Apples keynote was just a few hours ago. This is symbolic. Im definitely the only American here https://t.co/y9VpsEDe4B https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/taylor-ogan-snow-bull-capital-chinas-tech-frontier-the-view-from-shenzhen-47 Im at the Huawei launch of"
X Link 2024-09-10T11:37Z 41.1K followers, 12.4K engagements
"@jskf__ [--] SD is in PGS. We don't know what happened to the actual phenotype bc the predictor is weak. The SNPs accounting for the missing variance may or may not have changed under selection during the last 10ky"
X Link 2024-09-24T20:01Z 41.2K followers, [---] engagements
"I didn't say anything about the neolithic transition. The question is whether a complex trait can change by SD in 10ky. That is still disputed but these results provide new evidence in favor. Interpretation of finer details is premature given the limited amount of data. There could be geographical substructure sampling issues etc"
X Link 2024-09-24T21:33Z 41.2K followers, [---] engagements
"Iran Fattah missile analysis by @inbarspace Estimated CEP 10-25m Space imagery of Oct [--] hits on Israeli airbases are consistent with mix of old (CEPkm) and new (CEP10m) missiles used in attack. Balance of Terror: [--] power and desalination plants in Israel. All are above ground and none are hardened. Next Iranian attack could destroy these plants effectively eliminating power to the entire country as well as 85% of drinking water. https://stevehsu.substack.com/p/iran-vs-israel-implications-for-missile https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1844703808867246520"
X Link 2024-10-12T23:03Z 41.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Note to retards: I've been traveling to China since the early 1990s have collaborated on scientific and business projects here etc. If I tell you something like "PRC is ahead in nuclear energy and nearly caught up in semiconductors" or "wow free market system in the mall here" it doesn't mean I'm a communist shill. It means I'm trying to educate you about reality. Take it from me: Americans even American "experts" are usually badly miscalibrated re: China. My father was a KMT military officer my grandfather was a KMT General my father's family suffered through the Cultural Revolution which I"
X Link 2024-11-01T03:46Z 43.1K followers, 180.1K engagements
"Luckin Coffee Dali Coming to America soon Soft-Powa"
X Link 2024-11-04T01:26Z 43.1K followers, 606.3K engagements
"Denisovan EPAS1 mutation FTW 5000m altitude in Yunnan MAGA Huawei 5G kicks ass 😠🦾"
X Link 2024-11-06T04:19Z 42.5K followers, [----] engagements
"I spend a tiny fraction of my time on geostrategy. Same as von Neumann. He got out of Europe at the right time. Was his attention to world events a waste of time The problem with "word calculus" is huge residual uncertainty. But strategy/policy grifters can't admit this - they are selected to be overconfident in wordcel tools. They sell FEELZ not well-calibrated predictions. If your work product is high-uncertainty predictions you can't get paid. So you sell false certainty and narratives. I'd rather trust a +4SD guy who does it as a hobby @hsu_steve Nothing personal but I wonder why you"
X Link 2024-11-07T04:45Z 42.5K followers, 12.3K engagements
"@konsstt There were [--] routes from the NE by which students and faculty moved to the SW. It was an arduous journey"
X Link 2024-11-09T05:47Z 40.9K followers, [---] engagements
"Fully automated port in Peru built and run by China COSCO PRC just surpassed Germany and Japan in mfg robots per human worker. Chancay port is 100% automated. Look at all the AGVs around. This is what allows full [--] hr operation & highest throughput. No delays to any of the truckers or cargo ships. https://t.co/UorO0jUePJ Chancay port is 100% automated. Look at all the AGVs around. This is what allows full [--] hr operation & highest throughput. No delays to any of the truckers or cargo ships. https://t.co/UorO0jUePJ"
X Link 2024-11-25T16:13Z 42.5K followers, 22.9K engagements
"Background on the 20+ year journey to EUV lithography which led ultimately to ASML. An example of US industrial policy and public-private partnership. I think something similar in AI is possible today making use of expertise at the DOE national labs. Most "experts" have no idea how deep tech innovation actually works. We would not have EUV nor Moore's Law without this multi-decadal research effort involving thousands of physicists and US/JPN/EU industrial policy. Almost none of these people made a lot of money doing this work. They could have made much more money working at hedge funds or"
X Link 2024-12-01T14:28Z 42.4K followers, 13.7K engagements
"Interesting idea from data scientist and former quant David Kane: The United States Government should create a Treasury Coin call it T-coin for short based on the protocol behind Bitcoin. T-coin would be the first government-supported anonymous decentralized currency. Key points: The benefits of seigniorage mean that Teasury Coin might contribute trillions of dollars to the Federal Government. First before releasing the project to the public we could premine a third or so of the total number of coins. Second we could make a simple change in the protocol by which the US Government would"
X Link 2024-12-11T00:39Z 42.4K followers, [----] engagements
"Re: H1B MAGA debate I've helped numerous physicists and engineers get O1 (alien of extraordinary ability) and H1B visas. The former tend to be PhDs (eg Russian theoretical physicist from top university) and the latter tend to be engineers with more applied backgrounds. I also helped @Dominic2306 Dominic Cummings and No [--] Downing St. reform skilled immigration to the UK. The following are all true statements: [--]. O1 threshold is high. People who get this are usually PhDs from top programs who have published significant research and are internationally recognized. Stealing these people from"
X Link 2024-12-28T01:19Z 43.1K followers, 1.3M engagements
"More and more videos like this every day on Tik Tok. Even if you disagree with her think about all the others traveling this same path in the last few days. A million Americans https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZT2eS4oEn/ https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZT2eS4oEn/"
X Link 2025-01-17T22:36Z 43.1K followers, 202.6K engagements
"What me up when America can react to a Sputnik Moment again instead of resorting to cope 🥱 Deep Cope: a small collection of DeepSeek Supremacy denialism https://t.co/urYJvCmw6G Deep Cope: a small collection of DeepSeek Supremacy denialism https://t.co/urYJvCmw6G"
X Link 2025-01-24T19:14Z 42.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Stargate stalwart SoftBank down 6% on DeepSeek shock 🤔"
X Link 2025-01-27T03:11Z 41K followers, 21K engagements
"Yawn 🥱 Jevons blah blah so no pressure on NVDA GPU sales for model inference. 😬 Benchmarks show superior performance from specialized AI chips: . other AI chip companies are really faster than GPUs for running these latest models"
X Link 2025-01-30T20:16Z 42.6K followers, 26.9K engagements
"Unitree vs Boston Dynamics - no contest. https://youtu.be/qdR1uJjzd2ksi=iQ1gqMWNO8YB114Q https://youtu.be/qdR1uJjzd2ksi=iQ1gqMWNO8YB114Q"
X Link 2025-02-04T03:15Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements
"@LaSombrita19 Tell us more"
X Link 2025-02-04T12:24Z 35.9K followers, [---] engagements
"This story is the same in every field. It's why TSMC exists in Taiwan even though Morris Chang was educated in the US and worked for TI. Confucian under-promise and over-deliver culture doesn't work well in the grifter thunderdome that the USA has become. A lot of this talent ends up back in E. Asia and now you're seeing it in biotech. All the slides below are worth reading 👇 The biotech report that @TimOpler's team at Stifel put out this afternoon is a banger. Some slides on China's impact to $XBI. 1/3 of external molecules brought in by big pharma are now coming from China (from [--] in"
X Link 2025-02-06T18:26Z 43.1K followers, 106.3K engagements
"That little black region at the bottom is the total wealth held by the bottom half of the US population. These are the people who are one paycheck away from disaster. Any metric of "goodness of economic system" with nonlinear weight on precarity or misery would rate this distribution of wealth as very very bad. I would guess that the "pie" has not grown at all for the bottom third of the population over the last [--] years. A small amount of redistribution (eg from the top 10% of the population) would improve the lives of these people significantly without affecting the wealthy much."
X Link 2025-02-09T13:41Z 43.1K followers, 123.9K engagements
"A common meme on the Chinese internet: the US tech war has backfired. Results below from DeepSeek. (Memes): Chinese social media platforms like Weibo and WeChat are filled with memes featuring Trump and Biden with captions like: "" (Trump: Make China Great Again). "" (Biden: I contributed to China's rise). (Jokes): Netizens often share jokes like: "" (The two U.S. parties take turns in power all for the sake of China's development). "" (Trump and Biden are undercover agents for China). Serious people I met with - leading technologists business leaders geostrategists - share these beliefs. See"
X Link 2025-02-11T02:45Z 31.5K followers, 38.4K engagements
"Most likely outcome. But he might prevent a spasm of conflict that kills millions (or hundreds of millions). He and Hegseth and even Rubio understand Multipolarity. The whole f%cking Biden admin and idiot media could not understand this concept and its inevitability. Hegseth is the only guy who actually understood what ASBM mean for the US strategy in the Western Pacific. What a tragic situation that our fake generals and admirals and "strategists" denied this for a decade but some guy on Fox just comes out and embraces Reality"
X Link 2025-02-14T13:17Z 31.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Over a million casualties for a misguided strategy presided over by retards. Kissinger would have told these neocon retards that any small gains from "attrit Russia" were eclipsed by the growing Russia-China alliance providing the latter (our REAL strategic competitor) with resources (food minerals energy) and a close ally with the largest nuclear arsenal in the world. By the way it didn't start as "attrit Russia" - these retards really thought they could force a collapse of Russia through their sanctions. You can't judge this any other way than to say they are literal RETARDS. The "attrit""
X Link 2025-02-14T15:53Z 31.6K followers, 22.8K engagements
"This server runs full DeepSeek V3/R1 model at 1.9k tokens/s. Atlas 800I A2 using Ascend-910 NPU & Kunpeng-920 CPU. Entirely indigenous chip supply chain. Note compute demand for AI Reasoning development may resemble inference more than pretraining (gradient descent). Ascend hardware may work as well as Nvidia GPUs for this purpose. Many phone and device companies in PRC are offering direct access to full V3/R1 via cloud. This thing sells for $100k. It generates $60B tokens per year so at $0.5 per million tokens it pays for itself in around [--] years. Via @tphuang"
X Link 2025-02-14T18:03Z 41.2K followers, [----] engagements
"This is the kind of shit we had to put up with the past [--] years in UKR: 2014: The people of Titan deserve to be free trom the tyranny of Saturn We can free them if we cause them to launch a war against Saturn. Yes a million of Titan's soldiers will be maimed or killed but we can do it Yes Titan is far away and our own people don't know where it is or care about it but let's install our own puppet government on Titan and push for a war. It will weaken Saturn and perhaps cause their government to collapse (Our Nobel Economists assure us this is the case) The US has never turned away from a"
X Link 2025-02-17T12:14Z 31.5K followers, [--] engagements
"Don't forget Qwen (BABA = Ma) If the Apple-Alibaba AI Collab on iPhones works out (most competitive mkt for phones and edge AI) you may see Qwen-derived models on iPhones all over the world. To wit: DeepSeek Tencent Qihoo [---] (cybersecurity) Xiaomi Will Semiconductor BYD Huawei New Hope (agriculture) Unitree CHINT (electrics) Alibaba (Jack Ma) CATL. This is the lineup of crucial technology leaders. Our bro Wenfeng is the sole representative of AI wing. https://t.co/wlpMRD9b7P To wit: DeepSeek Tencent Qihoo [---] (cybersecurity) Xiaomi Will Semiconductor BYD Huawei New Hope (agriculture) Unitree"
X Link 2025-02-17T12:52Z 31.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Every major internet platform in PRC is rolling out genAI model access - often to DeepSeek V3/R1: eg WeChat Baidu etc. Will Chip War enthusiasts admit the sanctions have been a bust (at least so far) if frontier models like DS and Qwen are widely available to a billion users for free The paper below describes Huawei's cloud AI platform designed to efficiently serve LLMs. "This paper presents DEEPFLOW a system designed to address the challenges inherent in deploying and managing AI workloads at scale in cloud environments. DEEPFLOW is Huawei Clouds fully-hosted and serverless platform offering"
X Link 2025-02-17T15:28Z 37.1K followers, 20.4K engagements
"YAWN 🥱 Will we ever figure out who blew up that pipeline It's a mystery After the US-RUS peace treaty and the lifting of sanctions will Germany get cheap energy again 🤔 Will retards look back and ask what the pipeline eco-disaster was all about Nah they'll just move along in their memory-less state"
X Link 2025-02-18T11:32Z 43.1K followers, 37.4K engagements
"@csgriff_ Agree We build voice AIs and latency is really important - can't rely on Reasoning. Can you share some data on how KTransformer optimization affects time to first token"
X Link 2025-02-19T11:38Z 31.6K followers, [--] engagements
"DJI already ships these features on its cheapest $200 drones. They can do face recognition and autonomous "targeting" . Targeting a tank in the final 1km attack is only a small modification. I guess it's not EASY to COPY the AI technology that PRC companies have developed. Both UKR and RUS - and also UKR supporters like the once great UK USA Germany etc. - have a STRONG INCENTIVE to develop this technology. Where is it @hsu_steve I am genuinely confused why AI on the commodity drones hasnt become status quo; it isnt that difficult to have a 95% adequate solution and much easier than the"
X Link 2025-02-19T12:01Z 31.7K followers, 16.8K engagements
"MoonShot (PRC AI startup) released a reasoning model (Kimi) at the same time that DeepSeek R1 appeared with similar benchmark scores. It's just one of several frontier LLM developments that Western analysts are sleeping on (Qwen Doubao etc.). This new MoonShot paper develops an attention mechanism which is analogous to Mixture of Experts. In this case they use a mixture of sparse context blocks - the model directs attention adaptively. "MoBA achieves performance comparable to full attention while significantly improving computational efficiency.""
X Link 2025-02-19T12:34Z 31.7K followers, [----] engagements
""The AI co-scientist is a multi-agent AI system that is intended to function as a collaborative tool for scientists. Built on Gemini [---] AI co-scientist is designed to mirror the reasoning process underpinning the scientific method. Beyond standard literature review summarization and deep research tools the AI co-scientist system is intended to uncover new original knowledge and to formulate demonstrably novel research hypotheses and proposals building upon prior evidence and tailored to specific research objectives." Today we introduce an AI co-scientist system designed to go beyond deep"
X Link 2025-02-19T15:42Z 31.7K followers, [----] engagements
"Grok3 did very well on this hard question. Other than a hallucination about physicist Roman Buniy (changing his name in the middle of the CoT) it does a good job. Q: Do isolated quantum systems typically evolve into macroscopic superposition states Key Points Isolated quantum systems typically evolve into macroscopic superposition states according to theoretical physics. This means large systems can exist in multiple distinct states at once like a ball being in different positions simultaneously. It's surprising that such behavior is common even for large systems when we usually think of"
X Link 2025-02-20T12:43Z 31.7K followers, [----] engagements
"I sometimes teach an advanced graduate course on decoherence and quantum computation. The report Grok3 produced is comparable (although without equations) to the kind of term paper that students in the class might produce. MSU Physics is ranked [--] in the US and #1 in Nuclear Physics"
X Link 2025-02-20T12:53Z 31.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Physics undergraduates have to master a mathematical technique called perturbation theory. It depends on characterizing different effects as BIG small smaller etc. What wordcel retards can't understand (or bc they are myopic Eurotards) is that the US-RUS-PRC nexus is BIG and the whole UKR thing is small. You can give up the small thing in favor of the BIG thing. Although I just said the UKR thing is relatively small (eg compared to a nuclear war between the US and Russia or China) still 1-2 thousand UKR soldiers are being killed EVERY DAY that we let this pointless conflict continue. The"
X Link 2025-02-22T15:44Z 32.2K followers, [----] engagements
"NVDA wasn't hurt - they sold tons of GPUs to SGP and TW that were smuggled into China. But equipment makers like Applied Materials Lam Research etc. were hurt and will be hurt even more when they lose 30-40% of their total market due to indigenization (local suppliers come fully online in PRC). You have to differentiate btw chip makers (NVDA) and companies that are in the semiconductor supply chain. Eventually even NVDA might be competing head to head with eg Huawei on quality after domestic EUV comes online in PRC. Probably some years away"
X Link 2025-02-22T20:01Z 32.3K followers, [----] engagements
"And then there were two: SMIC vs TSMC S. Korea's semiconductor technology falls behind China in all areas: survey SEOUL Feb. [--] (Yonhap) -- South Korea's semiconductor technology trailed behind that of China in all key areas as of last year marking a shift from previous assessments a survey showed Sunday. According to the survey of [--] local experts conducted by the Korea Institute of S&T Evaluation and Planning South Korea ranked second in high-intensity and resistance-based memory technology scoring [----] percent compared with China's [----] percent with the world's top technology level set at"
X Link 2025-02-23T13:26Z 32.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Morgan Stanley report on humanoid robot value chain Good to see this mapped out - the eye-catching videos on social media are great but this is a more systematic analysis. "A common refrain we hear from investors is the lack of Western firms to add to their humanoid portfolio outside of TSLA and NVDA. In our view this is important information in and of itself as it represents the reality of the current humanoid ecosystem which we expect may need to change materially over time (see the West's current experience with EVs which has significant supply chain overlap with humanoids). Our research"
X Link 2025-02-24T00:24Z 32.5K followers, 22.2K engagements
"@AnthropoceneMe1 Search on YT for other demos they shoot with mirrors and humans near the robot just to allay the CGI conspiracy theories. Unitree also won a robot competition in Japan with their dog which was much better than the Boston Dynamics competitor"
X Link 2025-02-25T13:01Z 32.2K followers, [---] engagements
"While I doubt they will release the [--] trillion token pretraining dataset they might release the R1 RL dataset which is like 800k tokens IIRC. Something I should have mentioned in the OP is a rumor that R2 will be available before May. So they might release some R1 RL training data"
X Link 2025-02-25T15:51Z 32.2K followers, [---] engagements
"@rwang07 @teortaxesTex Few people are less susceptible to US propaganda than a TW engineer working and living in Shanghai with his family. Also everyone can see what happened to UKR. Unless they are brainwashed by the DPP"
X Link 2025-02-25T20:01Z 32.3K followers, [---] engagements
"Post below is top rated Quora reply to this question: [--] million Taiwanese work and live in China. How do they feel about living in mainland China the "enemy" of Taiwan There is a huge community of TW expats living in Shanghai working at places like SMIC or SMEE (DUV lithography machines). They drive awesome EVs eat at outdoor mini-malls that could be in Irvine CA (except the food is better) and have a really high quality of life. When I first met Robin Hanson about [--] years ago we got on the topic of the Aumann Agreement Theorem. Bayesian math aside I told Robin that the theorem doesn't apply"
X Link 2025-02-27T01:22Z 43.1K followers, 63K engagements
"Taylor Ogan Snow Bull Capital: China's tech frontier the view from Shenzhen Part [--] Insights on China tech and life in Shenzhen Really love talking to Taylor. Money talks bullshit walks. Taylor Ogan is Chief Executive Officer of Snow Bull Capital based in Shenzhen China. His firm invests in Chinese technology companies with a focus on areas such as clean energy AI and automation. Steve and Taylor discuss: (00:00) - Introduction (01:23) - Shenzhen: The Tech Hub of China (04:14) - The Rise of Huawei and Its Impact (06:59) - DeepSeek: China's AI Breakthrough (11:32) - The Role of Government in"
X Link 2025-02-27T12:34Z 41.1K followers, 42.2K engagements
"https://www.youtube.com/watchv=fmjR3me5s_Q&ab_channel=Manifold https://www.youtube.com/watchv=fmjR3me5s_Q&ab_channel=Manifold"
X Link 2025-02-27T12:34Z 41.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Audio-only version and transcript: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/taylor-ogan-snow-bull-capital-chinas-tech-frontier-the-view-from-shenzhen-part-2 https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/taylor-ogan-snow-bull-capital-chinas-tech-frontier-the-view-from-shenzhen-part-2"
X Link 2025-02-27T12:34Z 41.1K followers, [----] engagements
"A reader who understands Korean shared this SK TV show about education of gifted kids and "geniuses" in China. Deepseek founder did not make it into the under [--] testing / qualification program. But he did make it into the age [--] High-School program. 1st slide: Chinese Nationwide intellectual resource development plan By [--] years of age Test & Filter & Identify outstanding potential intelligence candidates By [--] years of age Ensure geniuses are surrounded by others only of similar caliber & accelerated curriculum & resources By [--] years of age Ensure geniuses are working in appropriate fields"
X Link 2025-03-20T16:13Z 43.1K followers, 84.8K engagements
"Yawn 🥱 Toyota said its bZ3Xthe recently introduced model that starts at $15000was designed in China by the companys engineers in the country who worked with a local joint-venture partner. It is made in Guangzhou with Chinese batteries and driver-assistance software from Momenta a Chinese leader in that field. This couldnt happen without a Chinese supply chain said Masahiko Maeda head of Toyotas Asia business. Unless you localize its out of the question"
X Link 2025-05-04T13:32Z 42.5K followers, 33.8K engagements
"Jensen Huang says H20 ban will cost NVDA $15B in revenue next year and the US $3B in tax revenue. The restrictions open the market in China for increased usage of Huaweis AI chips he said. If more companies use Huaweis chips and the Chinese company can refine its software Nvidias current CUDA software advantage could erode. Anybody who thought that one chess move to somehow ban China from H20s would somehow cut off their ability to do AI is deeply uninformed Huang said. If we dont compete in China and we allow the Chinese ecosystem to build a rich ecosystem because were not there to compete"
X Link 2025-05-19T20:12Z 41.7K followers, 148K engagements
"Taiwanese semiconductor expert who has worked in China for [--] years: "I think the US's restriction on China's semiconductor development is actually promoting China's semiconductor development." [--]. Says PRC education system is turning out better engineers now than TW. TW students are more westernized and don't work as hard as in the past. PRC is "like when we were students [--] years ago" [--]. Says TW contribution to PRC advances are 50% for semiconductor fab and 30% for chip design. Less in other areas. These are lagging indicators. Describes very aggressive recruitment of TW engineers to PRC"
X Link 2025-05-25T13:15Z 41K followers, 77.6K engagements
"I would say this thesis is rapidly becoming conventional wisdom among many Chinese technologists and even some US technologists. It would be interesting to hear a serious debate between an advocate for this view and a typical neoliberal economist who defends financialization of the US economy"
X Link 2025-06-20T12:08Z 43.1K followers, 246.7K engagements
"@jsondowns @arty_burton The PRC system uses market forces. It's a finer question than the strawman you propose"
X Link 2025-06-20T13:25Z 41K followers, [---] engagements
"Current allocation to this kind of research is less than 1% of the 1% of US GDP used currently to make dangerous machine gods SUPERBABIES are all the rage 🐣 https://t.co/m4jdHekc5H The genomic predictor in this recent paper captures h20.15 fluid intelligence (UKB) in direct genetic effects. (Note paper is not about editing.) Editing of the loci could give +10SD 🤔 https://t.co/lPzXSea4EF SUPERBABIES are all the rage 🐣 https://t.co/m4jdHekc5H The genomic predictor in this recent paper captures h20.15 fluid intelligence (UKB) in direct genetic effects. (Note paper is not about editing.)"
X Link 2025-06-26T11:54Z 41K followers, [----] engagements
"Yet another consequence of 10x larger cohorts of STEM grads year after year: BLOOMBERG: China Biotechs Stunning Advance Is Changing the Worlds Drug Pipeline Chinese biotech's advance has been as ferocious as the nation's breakthrough efforts in AI and EVs eclipsing the EU and catching up to the US . The number of novel drugs in China for cancer weight-loss and more entering into development ballooned to over [----] last year far surpassing the European Union and nearly catching up to the USs count of about [----] an exclusive Bloomberg News analysis showed. And the drug candidates from the land"
X Link 2025-07-14T01:52Z 43.1K followers, 157K engagements
"3 pages of careful prompt = IMO Gold with Gemini LLM. This is an independent effort (UCLA CS professor) not DeepMind. "This paper presents a novel methodology based on pipeline design and prompt engineering with the Gemini [---] Pro model a strong base model released by Google [--]. We solve [--] out of the [--] problems of IMO [----]. A persistent and critical challenge in the evaluation of LLMs is the issue of data contamination where test data from public benchmarks is inadvertently included in the vast pre-training corpora leading to inflated and unreliable performance metrics [--] [--]. To ensure a"
X Link 2025-07-24T01:10Z 41.4K followers, 14.2K engagements
"Biggest threat to Chinese AI chip industry is Nvidia ecosystem lock-in. The hypothetical adopted by most people supporting chip bans was that PRC wouldn't be able to produce competitive hardware (leading to a big disadvantage in LLM development) but this is just factually wrong"
X Link 2025-07-24T12:12Z 40.9K followers, [---] engagements
"First US Luckin Coffee in Greenwich Village Manhattan Iced latte $2 Luckin Coffee Dali Coming to America soon Soft-Powa https://t.co/HcIsTo82Mm Luckin Coffee Dali Coming to America soon Soft-Powa https://t.co/HcIsTo82Mm"
X Link 2025-07-26T01:28Z 43.1K followers, 673.5K engagements
"Report from Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA) Burn Rate: Missile and Interceptor Cost Estimates During the U.S.-IsraelIran War . the United States and Israel both face an urgent need to replenish stockpiles and sharply increase production rates. The U.S. THAAD system accounted for almost half of all interceptions perhaps because of Israels insufficient Arrow interceptor capacity. As a result the United States used up about [--] percent of all its THAAD interceptors which would take three to eight years to replenish at current production rates READ THE WSJ ARTICLE INSTEAD"
X Link 2025-07-27T11:10Z 41K followers, 11.2K engagements
"You can't go back in time. But perhaps look at this book. It's accessible to non-math people but also has insights for VERY mathy people who don't understand real physics. There's even a page that explains "tensors" - might be useful for would-be AI engineers ;-) If you're bored flip to a random page of this book and think about it. A physicist might have to flip a lot of pages to find something interesting but most people will learn stuff (about the universe) right away by doing this. https://archive.org/details/ThinkingPhysicsPracticalLessonsInCriticalThinking_201808/ Nvidia $NVDA CEO has"
X Link 2025-07-31T12:04Z 42.6K followers, 21.9K engagements
"Huawei openPangu-Ultra-MoE-718B-model No Nvidia tech used to build this model - only Ascend AI chips CANN not CUDA. ". trained from scratch on Ascend NPU with a total parameter count of 718B and 39B activated parameters per token. The openPangu-Ultra-MoE-718B is trained on approximately [--] trillion tokens and equipped with the capability to switch between fast and slow thinking." Seems to be a state of the art model if not the best open model currently available. Link below - you can download it and use it"
X Link 2025-08-04T14:27Z 41.1K followers, 29.1K engagements
"https://ai.gitcode.com/ascend-tribe/openpangu-ultra-moe-718b-model/blob/main/README_EN.md https://ai.gitcode.com/ascend-tribe/openpangu-ultra-moe-718b-model/blob/main/README_EN.md"
X Link 2025-08-04T14:27Z 41.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Another SOTA open source model 👍 At 355B parameters (32B active MoE) it's a bit smaller than some of the 1T models we've seen. AFAIK they don't say what hardware was used to train this model but they used 23T training tokens. IIUC both Alibaba and Tencent are investors in which is a startup in Beijing. http://Zhipu.ai Presenting the GLM-4.5 technical report👇 https://t.co/QY1cAZxdwY This work demonstrates how we developed models that excel at reasoning coding and agentic tasks through a unique multi-stage training paradigm. Key innovations include expert model iteration with"
X Link 2025-08-11T14:57Z 40.8K followers, [----] engagements
"I'm using various models for frontier research in theoretical physics. It's clear the models can read and understand (to a surprising degree) arxiv papers. They can combine ideas across multiple papers and make what seem to be original suggestions. Note there are advanced models (like the ones that won IMO gold) available to a small set of research collaborators that the general public has never seen. In the OP below he's talking about GPT-5 which is very good already. It takes a lot of domain expertise careful promptimg and time-consuming analysis of the AI output but it's clear their"
X Link 2025-08-21T12:25Z 41.2K followers, 39.9K engagements
"Simple confidence measures basd on average log probability used to filter reasoning traces. Once again very nice research enabled by access to high quality open source models. Look for more and more powerful pipelines with "generator-verifier" architecture that prunes bad results. The verifier can be a model instance or some kind of mathematical function like the internal confidence metrics developed in this paper. Existing models are very powerful when used with this kind of pipeline and large token budgets. (Here 1E8 tokens used for AIME 2025.) "DeepConf leverages model-internal confidence"
X Link 2025-08-23T10:40Z 42.5K followers, [----] engagements
"ByteDance has higher revenue and is WAY AHEAD of Meta in AI. Yet their market cap is a fraction of Meta's"
X Link 2025-08-28T11:50Z 43.1K followers, 71.3K engagements
"YAWN 🥱 Even Meituan (delivery app company DoorDash) ships frontier LLM Meta. Post I quote below describes many SOTA technical tricks used in the 560B MoE model. Years ago I met with the coach of the PRC IMO team in Beijing. He told me they could field multiple teams of gold medalists each year if they wanted to. The performance of genAI teams in China supports this - I've lost count of the number of models produced there that are Meta and SOTA. Half the AI talent in the world is IN China and half the US AI talent is FROM China. For clueless Americans who don't bother to follow the largest"
X Link 2025-08-31T11:55Z 41K followers, 18.5K engagements
"YAWN 🥱 Merz admits the truth. The clown show will continue for a while. The one big success in US foreign policy is forcing the EU into an adversarial relationship with RUS making them wholly dependent on us - hence their willingness to buy our energy at crazy high prices (dooming their own manufacturing industries including Germany's) and accept high Trump tariffs. The US can bleed Europe as it likes. Europe is becoming irrelevant other than as a US blood boy. (SK and JP take note.) Ofc the downside of this is the tight Sino-Russian alliance which makes them impervious to US threats (and"
X Link 2025-09-06T11:41Z 42.6K followers, 24.6K engagements
"@highpiled_books The professor is expressing moral outrage shared by most of the world and perhaps by most Americans. He might be wrong or naive but even the most radical Zionist should consider carefully what the rest of the world thinks"
X Link 2025-09-18T13:26Z 42.6K followers, [---] engagements
"Many such stories. If you know you know. If you don't like it you can just get high on Copium. People with skin in the game have to be more realistic. See my interview with Kyle on Manifold A group of Western VCs goes to China not to invest but to see what the competition is like. They realize that China is too far ahead on clean tech and decide the only way forward is to work with Chinese companies. One VC describing a visit to Chinese battery giant CATL: https://t.co/rw77kAzpmM A group of Western VCs goes to China not to invest but to see what the competition is like. They realize that"
X Link 2025-09-22T13:17Z 41.7K followers, 11.3K engagements
"@krishnakaasyap @natolambert Yes but do revenues captured by AI companies from this justify their valuations and capex SWE is atm a relatively small portion of total corp earnings or GDP"
X Link 2025-09-23T15:48Z 41.1K followers, [---] engagements
"Sharing some remarks from the Manifold Discord that arose from the Dwarkesh-Sutton conversation. There is no theorem that says "humans use pure RL see bitter lesson har har" - our brains could be kluge boxes that Nature evolved and our AIs that first reach AGI (or whatev) might be kluge boxes as well. "When humans learn something new we tend to learn very deep and general representations that we store. When we learn something new we just update these deeper representations" This mechanism seems quite hard to implement in current NN architectures - do humans update large numbers of "weights""
X Link 2025-10-05T12:59Z 40.9K followers, 11.7K engagements
"Don't miss this episode of Manifold 😀 Weeks When Decades Happen [--]. China Victory Day Parade and new military technology [--]. The SCO summit and its implications [--]. Modi's presence and the prospect of a Sino-Indian rapprochement [--]. Trump's South Asian blunder [--]. The Alaska Summit and the chances of peace [--]. Israel's loss of popular support on both the left and the right Seeking Truth From Facts: Weeks Where Decades Happen Manifold #95 The theme of this episode derives from Lenin: There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks when decades happen. Vladimir Ilyich Lenin (00:00) -"
X Link 2025-10-05T17:09Z 41K followers, [----] engagements
"Hope this replicates Let's get @bryan_johnson on it right away In a landmark study [--] published in the latest issue of Cell (2025;188:122) a 44-week trial in aged macaques led by Guanghui Liu Si Wang and Jing Qu has delivered a scientific paradigm shift: genetically engineered human mesenchymal progenitor(stem) cells termed senescence-resistant cells (SRCs) can not only halt aging but roll back its clinical and functions negative effects. Delivered intravenously these supercharged cells sparked a rejuvenation trifectasharper cognition stronger bones and revitalized reproductive healthall"
X Link 2025-10-05T23:34Z 43.1K followers, 77.6K engagements
"This is a good conversation. Just listened to it while exercising Both guys are thoughtful and the Anthropic pretraining lead has a lot of nitty gritty insight. Almost no theory even rough scaling that he points to as useful - everything is empirical. No definitive statements on pretraining data limits compute vs data size utility of synthetic data effects from contamination from AI output etc. https://youtu.be/YFeb3yAxtjEsi=XzHP23kkh2N8LtbL https://youtu.be/YFeb3yAxtjEsi=XzHP23kkh2N8LtbL https://youtu.be/YFeb3yAxtjEsi=XzHP23kkh2N8LtbL https://youtu.be/YFeb3yAxtjEsi=XzHP23kkh2N8LtbL"
X Link 2025-10-07T21:52Z 40.9K followers, 28.1K engagements
"AI bubble map Note I think genAI will create enormous value over the medium to long term. But current valuations may be in bubble territory"
X Link 2025-10-08T17:01Z 42.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Crazy $BABA has the Qwen team and another genAI team that just shipped a frontier 1T LLM 🤯 Ling-1T was developed by inclusionAI an initiative by Ant Group focused on Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). The Ling series of models is open-sourced by inclusionAI and represents the company's effort to create large language models. Ant Group is the fintech affiliate of Alibaba Group Holding and their AI efforts have been a recent focus of public reports. The development of Ling-1T and the broader Ling [---] series is part of Ant Group's strategy to advance AI technologies through the open-source"
X Link 2025-10-08T19:29Z 41.1K followers, 16.9K engagements
"The Global AI Race: and the View from Beijing Manifold #96 Zixuan Li is Director of Product and genAI Strategy at He was educated at Renmin and Tsinghua University in China and at MIT and Carnegie Mellon. has released frontier open source LLMs but is largely unknown in the West except among AI experts. Steve and Zixuan discuss the AI race from the perspective of a startup in Beijing. Chapter markers: (00:00) - Introduction and Guest Background (05:14) - Evolution and Challenges (10:37) - AI Model Comparison and Industry Insights (34:04) - Pragmatic Views on AGI in China (35:51) - Specialized"
X Link 2025-10-09T12:43Z 40.9K followers, 146.1K engagements
"OpenAI spent $5B on R&D compute alone in [----]. Probably higher in [----]. Very hard for smaller labs to keep up Latest Manifold episode shares perspective of smaller AI lab in Beijing: shipped one of best coding AIs GLM-4.6 http://Z.ai http://Z.ai"
X Link 2025-10-11T12:51Z 40.9K followers, [----] engagements
"YT algo led me to this interesting series of videos. This young lady was born in PRC grew up in Canada worked as a consultant in Toronto but left for a job with ByteDance in Shanghai. She covers stuff like [---] bigtech work culture apartment and living costs in Chinese cities etc. If you watch you'll get a sense of how advanced the overall economy is there at least in Tier 1-2 cities (aggregate population 400M)"
X Link 2025-10-11T18:01Z 41.2K followers, 19.2K engagements
"@othy_h She talks about work at ByteDance here I think: https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1977072092475802058 7:16 monthly income & expenses 11:09 pros and cons of [---] https://t.co/dRhb2ZCV5p https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1977072092475802058 7:16 monthly income & expenses 11:09 pros and cons of [---] https://t.co/dRhb2ZCV5p"
X Link 2025-10-11T18:45Z 40.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Video primer on rare earths - but does not explore whether Chinese producers have proprietary methods for extracting highest quality/purity output that will be difficult to replicate in the US. I suspect it's not just about building infrastructure and tolerating pollution. The devil is in the details and this capability will be difficult to reproduce analogous to semiconductor mfg (but prob. not at the same complexity). Rare earths primer from a man who has a rare and unique skill to make the most complex topics understandable and fascinating. (Of course we all knew about yttria-stabilized"
X Link 2025-10-14T12:40Z 40.8K followers, 14.6K engagements
"This is fine. as Jamie Dimon said another 20% to go before we hit peak bubble. I think the best story I can tell in favor of no-bubble is a huge breakthrough in agentic capability in the next year or two followed by record breaking revenue growth and adoption. But it's highly speculative - people who actually build AI applications using LLMs know how much the devil is in the details and not captured by demos that wow the credulous. OAI has to wager that this is going to happen but it might take longer and if so the bubble may pop in the interim. People who train models are mostly not"
X Link 2025-10-15T11:43Z 40.9K followers, 47.3K engagements
"AI chips will improve a lot in the near term and model algos + software optimization will make training and inference more efficient. Huge amounts of $$$ and talent are attacking these challenges. But what does this mean for depreciation of chips purchased today 🤔 genAI is going to change society as much as the internet did but that doesn't mean [----] capex will have good returns. Seems more likely to play out like the [----] bubble. "Dark fiber" installed during that bubble eventually got used (+10-20y later) but many early investors were wiped out"
X Link 2025-10-15T11:43Z 40.8K followers, [----] engagements
"1. Thing is great and enthusiasts can see the potential. In the medium or long run it will transform society. [--]. Will it generate $trillion revenues within a few years needed to justify early valuations #1 is not the bubble question #2 is. You can't address #2 without quantitative revenue projections that take into account rate of adoption depreciation of assets etc"
X Link 2025-10-15T13:13Z 40.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Population-specific polygenic risk scores for people of Han Chinese ancestry Published today in Nature. Three authors from Genomic Prediction: Hsu Raben and Widen Dataset is Taiwan Precision Medicine Initiative (N500k). I believe it is the largest dataset of non-European genomes. I gave a colloquium on polygenic prediction at Academia Sinica (Taipei) in [----] the summer before covid which led to our participation in this large collaboration. Science may advance slowly but it does advance 🦾 (Oops - reposting bc I accidentally deleted this)"
X Link 2025-10-16T00:00Z 40.9K followers, 75.3K engagements
"Psychometry and Philip K. Dick We have a tendency to assume that high V individuals such as famous writers or pundits or even philosophers have correspondingly high M and S (spatial) capabilities. In the interview I link below Dick recounts how he was forced to leave UC Berkeley because of the ROTC requirement. Despite his best efforts he could not reassemble an M1 rifle. He says that out of [----] ROTC students he was the only one unable to do so. In his high school geometry class he received an "F-" because he had zero comprehension of the diagrams or how to think through axiomatic proofs. In"
X Link 2025-10-17T14:32Z 42.6K followers, 18.4K engagements
"M-V-S positively correlated but as PKD shows P(S high V high) is not [--] and P(S low V high) is nonzero"
X Link 2025-10-17T18:31Z 42.5K followers, [----] engagements
"@obscuremediafan She has a figure in the book which indicates SD=15"
X Link 2025-10-17T21:43Z 41.2K followers, [---] engagements
"C.N. Yang has passed age [---]. Yang was awarded the Nobel prize at [--] for parity violation (shared with T.D. Lee). But his greatest contribution was probably Yang-Mills theory now referred to as gauge theory. When I was a student the former designation was as common as the latter. Freeman Dyson called Yang "the pre-eminent stylist of 20th-century physics". "Dr. Yang's sense of mathematical beauty turns his least important calculations into miniature works of art and turns his deeper speculations into masterpieces." Dyson believed only Albert Einstein and Paul Dirac exceeded Yang as stylists in"
X Link 2025-10-18T15:00Z 43.1K followers, 315.4K engagements
"https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1855409317937098864 I looked at thousands of photos at the Lianda museum yesterday in hopes of finding one of my father. https://t.co/dIb0tSgk8k The only one I found is below - it's a sports club photo and my dad is standing on the far left. He told me he had played basketball and volleyball in https://t.co/C80vXcyh1z https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1855409317937098864 I looked at thousands of photos at the Lianda museum yesterday in hopes of finding one of my father. https://t.co/dIb0tSgk8k The only one I found is below - it's a sports club photo and my dad is"
X Link 2025-10-18T15:00Z 40.9K followers, 23.5K engagements
"He spent the war on the Lianda campus in Kunming = relocated Beida Tsinghua and Nankai Universities moved to escape Japanese occupation. My father was on campus at the same time (born 1923). Yang's father was a math professor. Yang said after arriving at Chicago to pursue his PhD under Fermi that his physics education at Lianda had been excellent despite the difficult conditions. As far as textbook physics he had little to learn from the US curriculum. https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1855050351755641106 https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1855050351755641106 Greetings from Kunming Today I will"
X Link 2025-10-18T15:00Z 40.9K followers, 17.4K engagements
"GPU GLUT Why are purchase costs so high but rental rates so low for AI chips More evidence of a bubble caused by speculative capital allocation 🤔 There does not seem to be any shortage of compute and it's priced so low that capex ROI will be very low or negative esp. for the lower cost providers. Based on a five year depreciation cycle and 100% utilization smaller providers of AI compute are renting GPUs so cheaply they can't recover their initial investment cost - see FT estimate below in thread"
X Link 2025-10-19T14:25Z 40.9K followers, 55.4K engagements
"Here to make the AGI god"
X Link 2025-10-20T18:47Z 40.9K followers, 40.2K engagements
"@Yeahokay_imsure That's what I'm here for"
X Link 2025-10-20T18:54Z 40.9K followers, [---] engagements
"Aegaeon: Effective GPU Pooling for Concurrent LLM Serving on the Market Beida and Alibaba Cloud Aegaeon has been beta deployed in Alibaba Cloud Model Studio for over three months currently serving tens of models that range from 1.8B to 72B parameters. It reduces the number of GPUs required for serving these models from [----] to [---] highlighting an 82% GPU resource saving"
X Link 2025-10-20T19:09Z 40.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Manifold Meet Up in SF Thursday Oct [--] Avalon House [---] Palo Alto Ave San Francisco CA [-----] 5pm into the evening - we'll order delivery for dinner. Here to make the AGI god https://t.co/kQ2RsiM7Kr Here to make the AGI god https://t.co/kQ2RsiM7Kr"
X Link 2025-10-20T20:49Z 40.9K followers, 12.6K engagements
"Szechuan dinner with the Prince of Darkness"
X Link 2025-10-21T02:15Z 40.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Jack London traveled in Japan Korea and China. His predictions for the future of East Asia are found in his [----] short story The Unparalleled Invasion. "London also had considerable admiration for Chinese civilization and predicted that when its people woke up it would become a world superpower becoming so powerful by [----] that the nations of the West would rally together to curtail Chinas dominance. He found the Chinese to be intelligent clever pragmatic and extremely hard-working. Tragically however China had been held back by a conservative governing elite who feared innovation and who"
X Link 2025-10-23T00:26Z 42.5K followers, 42.9K engagements
"AIs Win Math Olympiad Gold: Prof. Lin Yang (UCLA) Manifold #97 Lin Yang is a professor of computer science at UCLA. Recently he and his collaborator built an AI pipeline using commercial models such as Gemini ChatGPT and Grok that performed at the gold medal level on International Mathematics Olympiad problems. Steve and Lin discuss this research which relies on "verifier-refiner" LLM instances and large token budgets to reliably solve difficult problems. They discuss how these methods can be used to advance AI for scientific research legal analysis and complex document processing. (00:00) -"
X Link 2025-10-23T15:14Z 40.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Manifold Meet Up In SF Tonight Thursday Oct [--] Avalon House [---] Palo Alto Ave San Francisco CA [-----] 5pm into the evening - we'll order delivery for dinner"
X Link 2025-10-23T19:12Z 41K followers, [----] engagements
"Sometimes I just troll my AI doomer friends"
X Link 2025-10-23T21:25Z 40.9K followers, [----] engagements
""This poignant video incorporates footage from the Bruce Weber documentary Let's Get Lost. Weber contrasted the age and drug ravaged Chet Baker of [----] with the young beautiful cult figure of the 1950s. The Santa Monica scenes have a suffused warm light that makes me yearn for Southern California." https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2010/01/time-after-time.html https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2010/01/time-after-time.html"
X Link 2025-10-26T15:26Z 41K followers, [----] engagements
""At the time there was a lot of talk about West Coast jazz or cool jazz as some of the the New York or eastern musicians used to call it and they sort of put our style of music down out here in Los Angeles. I really don't think that they understood that musicians like Chet Baker and Art Pepper were really products of their environment the sun and the beach and the warmth and the romanticism. Chet's kind of playing was just indigenous to uh to jazz as the Beach Boys were later on to rock and roll. I loved Chet long before I met him because he personified for me the very thing that gave meaning"
X Link 2025-10-26T15:37Z 41K followers, [----] engagements
"A House of Dynamite - Kathryn Bigelow and a talented cast. Hope it reminds young people what everyone who grew up during the Cold War knows - the nuclear balance of terror is precarious. "HITTING A BULLET WITH A BULLET" 🥱 YAWN . defense secretary played by Jared Harris complains that current missile defenses have only a [--] percent chance of intercepting a missile despite their $50bn price tag. . deputy national security adviser played by Gabriel Basso puts the figure at [--] percent. Thats based on data from controlled tests the movies screenwriter Noah Oppenheim told The Atlantic. So you can"
X Link 2025-10-28T18:05Z 41K followers, [----] engagements
"I have a Grokipedia page: Much better than Wiki 🤔 AI is strong 🦾 https://grokipedia.com/page/Stephen_Hsu https://grokipedia.com/page/Stephen_Hsu"
X Link 2025-10-28T21:01Z 41K followers, [----] engagements
"If only people paid attention to reality 🤔 Germany is car company with a country attached. For those of us that lived through the German glory years selling stuff to China from 1995-2015 what is going on is shocking: - Porsche : profit 99.5% - VW: profit 100% - Benz : Profit 33% Germany is car company with a country attached. For those of us that lived through the German glory years selling stuff to China from 1995-2015 what is going on is shocking: - Porsche : profit 99.5% - VW: profit 100% - Benz : Profit 33%"
X Link 2025-10-30T18:04Z 41K followers, 16.2K engagements
"Yet another area where China is ahead: phased array radar. It's inexpensive and even used for autonomous driving. Gemini: China's commercial phased array radar technology has transitioned from primarily military origins to significant civilian applications driven by its inherent advantages of rapid electronic beam steering and multi-functionality. Key Characteristics Electronic Beam Steering: Unlike traditional radars that use mechanical rotation phased array radars use a fixed panel with a grid of individual antenna elements. By precisely controlling the phase (and sometimes amplitude) of"
X Link 2025-10-31T15:35Z 41K followers, 24.7K engagements
"Re: APEC and US-China balance of power from Indian military analyst @PravinSawhney (Starting 4m into presentation): The Chinese leadership long understood that the United States does not naturally operate on the basis of genuine partnership with other nations. When Zbigniew Brzezinski informally proposed a G2 partnership between the U.S. and China Beijing remained silent. China as a civilizational state with its own worldview preferred to respond formally through its own conceptual framework. In [----] while still vice president Xi Jinping visited the U.S. and proposed the idea of a new type of"
X Link 2025-10-31T16:35Z 41K followers, [----] engagements
"Hungarys former Ambassador to China offers a sober reality check on what the West refuses to see: that the global balance has already shifted. EU: We shot not one foot but both. Highlights from AI summary (sections from video): [--]. The New Cold War Framework: He contends that since about [----] the world has entered a new Cold War among three powersU.S. Russia and Chinamarked by multiple proxy conflicts (Ukraine Gaza etc.). The current phase is a preparatory stage for possible transition from cold to hot war. [--]. The Cold War versus World War III: He distinguishes between an unavoidable long Cold"
X Link 2025-11-01T14:30Z 41.1K followers, [----] engagements
"AI Bubble Update Free cash flow vs Debt Financing (Bond issuance) The Atlantic: The economic nightmare scenario is that the unprecedented spending on AI doesnt yield a profit anytime soon if ever and data centers sit at the center of those fears. Such a collapse has come for infrastructure booms past: Rapid construction of canals railroads and the fiber-optic cables laid during the dot-com bubble all created frenzies of hype investment and financial speculation that crashed markets. Of course all of these build-outs did transform the world; generative AI bubble or not may do the same. . Here"
X Link 2025-11-02T13:07Z 41.1K followers, 21.8K engagements
"The Atlantic: Heres How the AI Crash Happens WSJ: What Investors Learned From Tech Earnings in Charts The so-called Magnificent Seven make up a record 38% of the S&P [---] https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/tech-earnings-lessons-charts-df778001mod=hp_lead_pos2 https://archive.ph/dLmkK#selection-1041.0-1041.521 https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/tech-earnings-lessons-charts-df778001mod=hp_lead_pos2 https://archive.ph/dLmkK#selection-1041.0-1041.521"
X Link 2025-11-02T13:07Z 41K followers, [----] engagements
"People foam at the mouth about @sama but if you listen carefully to what he says he's explicit about negative scenarios that might play out for OAI. He SAYS: we are betting on the optimistic scenario for returns to genAI. If you agree buy OAI. If you don't sell. What more can you ask from a CEO If you're an LP in a fund that buys OAI at $500B valuation and don't like it tell the GPs - don't complain about Sam. Apparently if you ask @sama how his $13 billion money-losing for profit not-for-profit can support $1.4 TRILLION of spend commitments he gets very defensive and starts to attack"
X Link 2025-11-02T14:34Z 41.1K followers, 19.2K engagements
"Gradually people notice what it means for PRC to produce 10x the STEM talent of the US comparable to Rest of World combined. Very simple math: 4x US population kids 2x more likely to do hard STEM in college. More advanced reasoning: PISA L6 math ability = top 2% US kids but perhaps as many as top 5-10% of PRC kids. That could mean even larger advantage for PRC if you raise the threshold from "can do good STEM degree in US" to "top 2% of US kids". For people who understand Gaussian math or normal distributions: PRC advantage gets larger the further you go into the tail of the distribution. See"
X Link 2025-11-02T15:28Z 42.6K followers, 56.5K engagements
"If you don't like NVDA or MSFT or AMD round trip deals with OAI don't complain about Sam complain to the boards of those companies IF Sam's optimistic scenario materializes those deals will be fine. Sam openly admits that they are betting on the optimistic scenario and that it's a BET - not a sure thing"
X Link 2025-11-02T15:30Z 41K followers, [----] engagements
"I added the SKULL https://x.com/natolambert/status/1980657338726887662 Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky: Were relying a lot on Alibabas Qwen model. Its very good. Its also fast and cheap. We use OpenAIs latest models but we typically dont use them that much in production because there are faster and cheaper models. The valley is built on Qwen https://x.com/natolambert/status/1980657338726887662 Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky: Were relying a lot on Alibabas Qwen model. Its very good. Its also fast and cheap. We use OpenAIs latest models but we typically dont use them that much in production because there are"
X Link 2025-11-02T23:59Z 41.1K followers, 16K engagements
"Now we are teaching AIs to do frontier work in physics and math 🦾 Met a Meta AI researcher. He studied Physics in China came to the US for a PhD in Physics and then fell in love with AI despite never having studied computer science. He watched Andrej Karpathy and Andrew Ng bought a GPU read every arXiv paper title daily and dived into Met a Meta AI researcher. He studied Physics in China came to the US for a PhD in Physics and then fell in love with AI despite never having studied computer science. He watched Andrej Karpathy and Andrew Ng bought a GPU read every arXiv paper title daily and"
X Link 2025-11-03T03:29Z 41.1K followers, [----] engagements
"GPT5 based on MSFT most recent financials (Jul-Sept 2025):"
X Link 2025-11-03T12:07Z 41.1K followers, [----] engagements
"I think it's the operating loss for OAI in the most recent quarter (over the summer) - that's why people are very interested in backing this out from the MSFT financial statement. It could mean that OAI is burning cash at a run rate of $40B/year on annual revenues of $20B Can that really be correct Not sure. On paper the MSFT investment itself probably went up hugely in value bc the recent OAI round valued them at $500B which is much higher than where MSFT came in"
X Link 2025-11-03T15:36Z 41K followers, [---] engagements
"AI "involution" - easy for PRC tech company to spin up frontier models and give it away free 💀 Yet more "overcapacity" 😱 Meituan is a Chinese technology company that operates one of the country's largest "super apps" specializing in on-demand food delivery but also providing a wide range of local services like travel bookings movie tickets and in-store deals. Meituan has built a powerful AI assistant LongCat that utilizes the AI models it has developed. It recently just added web search features & voicecom + open src'd its latest Flash Omni model. It's clearing targeting individuals since"
X Link 2025-11-03T15:53Z 41.2K followers, 12.9K engagements
"I've been testing a number of models in frontier theoretical physics. Among the best: GPT5 Gemini [---] Pro DeepSeek and Qwen-Max. I only recently started testing Grok in this way and it seems reasonably good. Occasionally I encounter some strange bugs which might be more due to their UI / prompt handling rather than the model itself which seems to have good math/physics capability. As a kid I never dreamt I would see such powerful tools for scientific exploration Weve released an early preview of Qwen3-Max-Thinkingan intermediate checkpoint still in training. Even at this stage when augmented"
X Link 2025-11-03T19:59Z 41.1K followers, 18.4K engagements
"I haven't spent much time with Claude - it might be good. One test I like: point it to one of my papers on arxiv and test its understanding of the finer points. I can then ask it about related papers how to generalize the results etc. Because the topic is something I understand well I can get a good sense of the model's strengths and limitations"
X Link 2025-11-03T23:13Z 41K followers, [---] engagements
"Train 10T parameter models on Huawei super nodes 🤔 You can't say these guys lack ambition. HW's Atlas 950/960 SuperPoD are truly innovative products. It offsets China's disadvantage in advanced node chip fabrication by increasing memory optimizing for FP4/8 & building large super node using HW's networking expertise. More smaller AI die connected like it's all in [--]. https://t.co/YV68AfhNCc HW's Atlas 950/960 SuperPoD are truly innovative products. It offsets China's disadvantage in advanced node chip fabrication by increasing memory optimizing for FP4/8 & building large super node using HW's"
X Link 2025-11-04T01:49Z 41K followers, 11.6K engagements
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