# ![@hannibalspeaks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::1937207568218345472.png) @hannibalspeaks Specialsituationz

Specialsituationz posts on X about $nktr, if you, market, data the most. They currently have [---] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1937207568218345472/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1937207568218345472/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [------] +134%
- [--] Month [------] -55%
- [--] Months [-------] +2,666%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1937207568218345472/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1937207568218345472/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- [--] Week [--] +84%
- [--] Month [--] -6.70%
- [--] Months [---] +658%

### Followers: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::1937207568218345472/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1937207568218345472/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- [--] Week [---] +6.70%
- [--] Month [---] +11%
- [--] Months [---] +1,006%

### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::1937207568218345472/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1937207568218345472/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[stocks](/list/stocks)  18.03% [finance](/list/finance)  10.66% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  2.46% [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations)  1.64% [social networks](/list/social-networks)  1.64% [currencies](/list/currencies)  0.82% [countries](/list/countries)  0.82% [musicians](/list/musicians)  0.82% [celebrities](/list/celebrities)  0.82%

**Social topic influence**
[$nktr](/topic/$nktr) #27, [if you](/topic/if-you) 6.56%, [market](/topic/market) 6.56%, [data](/topic/data) 6.56%, [$abvx](/topic/$abvx) 5.74%, [$anab](/topic/$anab) 4.92%, [upside](/topic/upside) 4.92%, [folks](/topic/folks) 4.1%, [$alms](/topic/$alms) 4.1%, [to the](/topic/to-the) 4.1%

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@amaymd](/creator/undefined) [@rnaianalyst](/creator/undefined) [@seedy19tron](/creator/undefined) [@suhailmohebi](/creator/undefined) [@biohazard3737](/creator/undefined) [@joserestonva](/creator/undefined) [@biotechsanya2](/creator/undefined) [@bananaoncology](/creator/undefined) [@somecuriousgirl](/creator/undefined) [@financebully](/creator/undefined) [@avidresearch](/creator/undefined) [@steve72354669](/creator/undefined) [@coltpdx](/creator/undefined) [@plainyogurt21](/creator/undefined) [@houndcl](/creator/undefined) [@biotenic](/creator/undefined) [@taintslapp12283](/creator/undefined) [@iotaresearch](/creator/undefined) [@basadomente](/creator/undefined) [@aaronrosenblum5](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Abivax SA (ABVX)](/topic/$abvx) [Alumis Inc. (ALMS)](/topic/$alms) [MoonLake Immunotherapeutics Class A Ordinary Shares (MLTX)](/topic/$mltx) [Protagonist Therapeutics, Inc (PTGX)](/topic/$ptgx) [Ventyx Biosciences, Inc. (VTYX)](/topic/$vtyx) [Immix Biopharma, Inc.  (IMMX)](/topic/$immx) [Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (TERN)](/topic/$tern) [BridgeBio Pharma, Inc. Common Stock (BBIO)](/topic/$bbio) [Revolution Medicines, Inc. (RVMD)](/topic/$rvmd) [Cidara Therapeutics, Inc. (CDTX)](/topic/$cdtx) [Merus N.V. Common Shares (MRUS)](/topic/$mrus) [Intra-Cellular Therapies Inc. (ITCI)](/topic/$itci) [Avidity Biosciences, Inc. (RNA)](/topic/$rna) [ArriVent BioPharma, Inc.  (AVBP)](/topic/$avbp) [Amgen, Inc. (AMGN)](/topic/$amgn) [Synthetify (SNY)](/topic/$sny) [Novo-Nordisk (NVO)](/topic/$nvo)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"My price predictions for $NKTR on day of data and for end of week have all been accurate. The next target is $95 though harder to put an exact time on this"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/2022352696913903936)  2026-02-13T16:50Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"$IMMX is looking too cheap even post-dilution. Should have a billion $ MC. Catalysts [----] this is one to look into. Any credible counter theses Why is this not a 3x over [--] months"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/1998689824895627377)  2025-12-10T09:42Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Disagree. If you can do you own thinking and approach each set-up with fresh eyes there is abundant value. Sell side analysts and BioX is usually late to the party. $NKTR and $ABVX became darlings when most of the price movement had happened. No one was talking about $TERN. Random thought. [----] isn't going to be easy. April [----] provided opportunities. $ptgx $bbio $rvmd etc that doubled then $nktr $abvx that went 5-15x some good premium buyouts $cdtx $mrus $itci $rna Not to be naysayer I guess [----] will be ok if make 30-50% returns Random thought. [----] isn't going to be easy. April 2025"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/2004665702855348560)  2025-12-26T21:28Z [---] followers, 15K engagements


"Guys if you find my posts helpful please subscribe to my free substack: If i get [---] subscribers I will write up the $QTTB pitch in detail like I did for $ANAB. I need some motivation as I'm behind on writing. https://substack.com/@hannibalspeaks https://substack.com/@hannibalspeaks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/2009062200741351813)  2026-01-08T00:38Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"This reflects a misunderstanding bordering on incompetence. A quick look at Nemolizumab sales instantly disproves the hypothesis. Bar for AD meaningfully reset to Dupi-equivalent or Dupi-better oral If you're working on an antibody that's not meaningfully Dupi+++ you should probably kill the program or pivot the indication Bar for AD meaningfully reset to Dupi-equivalent or Dupi-better oral If you're working on an antibody that's not meaningfully Dupi+++ you should probably kill the program or pivot the indication"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/2015023366046941225)  2026-01-24T11:26Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/news/galderma-outlays-650m-for-us-manufacturing-as-nemluvio-sales-soar/ https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/news/galderma-outlays-650m-for-us-manufacturing-as-nemluvio-sales-soar/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/2015024001865666959)  2026-01-24T11:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@JoseRestonVA I like Galderma will need to take another look at it. I don't think market has priced Nemo sales fully. It also has a track record of constant innovation. If I recall there is an IL-2 agent in their pipeline"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/2015029177137647629)  2026-01-24T11:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@JoseRestonVA @RedAutumnBio 7.3% wow What folks don't appreciate it is that starting a drug is a highly personal choice made in consultation with physicians. Some patient's may not like the possibility of serious eye complications or loosing their hair on dupilumab"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/2015047831237587428)  2026-01-24T13:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"It would be fool hardy for $NKTR and $CRVS bulls to cheer the demise of OX40 class too loudly. The lesson is in biotech fragility a single late tox signal combined with attenuated efficacy at ph3 has killed a multibillion dollar program"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/2017237009673101588)  2026-01-30T14:02Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"I made money on the $ALMS binary. But can we get real the improved efficacy is because of the higher dosing at BD. The other TYK inhibitors maximized convenience over dose saturation. Psoriasis market is saturated. Even in SLE it will compete with BMS who will be F2M. $ALMS Back to [--]. All dips. $ALMS Back to [--]. All dips"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/2018437400066670970)  2026-02-02T21:32Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"TYK2 sales in psoriasis currently $300m. If you assume $ALMS will capture 100% market share and then double that market you can get the current MC to make sense with a DCF model"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/2018453546723942686)  2026-02-02T22:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@financebully So your valuation model relies on comparison to a different class of medication with much broader licensing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/2018456334950371544)  2026-02-02T22:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@biotechsanya2 OK so your model has a $ALMS' TYK2 doing 5X the current class sales despite an incumbent and further competition from Takeda's Zasocitinib who will actually have H2H data vs Sotyktu. $ALMS is going to need one hell of a sales team"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/2018564790831230989)  2026-02-03T05:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@biotechsanya2 There's no thesis here. Just back and forth about sales trajectories and valuations - X is for debate right Are you saying we can't debate this without getting but hurt $ALMS peak sales of $1.5B depends on projection not precedent and discount competition and pricing pressure"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/2018572316742160890)  2026-02-03T06:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@biotechsanya2 I suppose the META in the $ALMS/$PTGX debate is whether people really desire an oral psoriasis drug and whether payers will pay premium for these drugs as the trusted and reliable biologics come off patent/go generic"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/2018574762017186092)  2026-02-03T06:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Researching $QTTB proving eye opening - so many skeletons in the closet - king of shitcos. Still like the bet its: -90%/+5000%. dead serious"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/2019464246967382468)  2026-02-05T17:32Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Can any of the oncologists/chemists I follow with a view on $AVBP please get in touch"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/2020565062633542127)  2026-02-08T18:27Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@Steve72354669 @SharkAlertsBio @avidresearch @a_a_free No i made an incorrect assumption that embargoed data during superbowl would be negative and that an embargo rules out a preannouncement. Both assumptions wrong. Probably we'll have $ABVX buy out announced tommorow and we'll all be wrong"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/2021003626471428599)  2026-02-09T23:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$NKTR 300m offering. https://elite.finviz.com/news/306428/nektar-therapeutics-announces-proposed-public-offering https://elite.finviz.com/news/306428/nektar-therapeutics-announces-proposed-public-offering"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/2021330753213112627)  2026-02-10T21:09Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"If we assume 550m cash post raise they can at least begin ph3 studies and raise through ATM for reminder. (Allowing for settlement royalty sale as further sources of income.)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/2021332133428785370)  2026-02-10T21:15Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Point here they are going to do a $ABVX and run the pivotals themselves. They will exhaust all their cash resources into the readout it will be a make or break read out. No one will partner with $NKTR I'm currently 60% and can't stand mgmt"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/2021333191290953846)  2026-02-10T21:19Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@Banana_Oncology @somecuriousgirl @A_May_MD @seedy19tron @Biohazard3737 The accounting per patient in a large I&I phase [--] lasting one year reaches north of half a million USD. The modal income in the US is $80000. Patients in trial do not have 1RN or [--] physician's worth of contact time. So there is massive cost inflation at some point"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/2021345562508001281)  2026-02-10T22:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@somecuriousgirl @Banana_Oncology @A_May_MD @seedy19tron @Biohazard3737 You don't get the US. No body is looking to cut costs the aim is to inflate them further. There is a reason healthcare is 20% of GDP perfect market - it's non discretionary - you just pile up more charges"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/2021355094940451261)  2026-02-10T22:46Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@SuhailMohebi Been lots of time. Not speaking of it ignorantly. What I like tends to get knocked down when I next visit"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/2022009369546932615)  2026-02-12T18:06Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@SuhailMohebi Its basically Las Vegas appeals to a shallow time of person with no deep scruples and the deeply impoverished masses of the world"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/2022010264779206923)  2026-02-12T18:09Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@SuhailMohebi Great vision to make that a success and superb marketing. However its built on a cowardly betrayal of noble values Emiratis once the most noble of Arabs will produce kids hooked on liquor and Russian hookers"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/2022011348931260738)  2026-02-12T18:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@SuhailMohebi Again no disrespect to the expats there but is it that great or are the regional centres is attracts skilled workers from (Egypt Lebannon Syria) just so dysfunctional that a civic state that works seems like Nirvana"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/2022014200890241486)  2026-02-12T18:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@SuhailMohebi True. A wise mentor advised Dubai is a place to go when you already have wealth and want to store/enjoy it. It's not a place to make wealth - don't believe the pyramid marketers on youtube hyping property/service businesses"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/2022015925139255403)  2026-02-12T18:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@avidresearch You stop the drug and patient remains flare free for [--] year plus. Currently you stop effective drugs you have improved the skin barrier so you get 3-6 good months but after that the eczema returns. Exception is patients who have been clear for a few years on drug"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/2022299898180251653)  2026-02-13T13:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Actually when you consider tax on royalty payouts its more efficient to reinvest the cash in pipelines but it depends on the company being able to successfully bring drugs to market. 3/x I wonder if there are any executives out there watching $ANAB and realizing their stock might trade incredibly well if they separate valuable assets into shareholders hands and stop pissing them into the wind Totally not tagging $PTGX to create a RoyaltyCo. 3/x I wonder if there are any executives out there watching $ANAB and realizing their stock might trade incredibly well if they separate valuable assets"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/2021973248884523478)  2026-02-12T15:42Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Quick question: hedge funds need to disclose substantial purchases (5%) at point of entry. Is there any service that tracks these in real time before quarterly filings For example is the any way to see Tang's new significant positions before their next 13f drops"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/2022624038179525108)  2026-02-14T10:48Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@coltpdx When they think of a verb they have an innate sense of what is correct. This automaticity is the hall mark of the native speaker"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/2022800072358899944)  2026-02-14T22:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"This is massive news. Amgen who have invested billions into OX40 have essentially washed their hands of it. Remember they paid $400m upfront and funded a gigantic ph3 program. $NKTR looks prime here if their management can be trusted not to F up a deal. $AMGN hands back ox40 rocat back to kyowa https://t.co/BR6AwYU4iF $SNY $AMGN hands back ox40 rocat back to kyowa https://t.co/BR6AwYU4iF $SNY"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/2017230961595867347)  2026-01-30T13:38Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Understanding SALT scores. https://open.substack.com/pub/distressedequity/p/understanding-salt-scoresr=4va4b3&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true https://open.substack.com/pub/distressedequity/p/understanding-salt-scoresr=4va4b3&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/2021955056506220922)  2026-02-12T14:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@coltpdx A French 12-year old knows the full verb conjugation system with all irregulars without a single formal lesion in how it works or why. They did not need structured instruction but internalized these structures unconsciously through their language instinct"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/2022799555511660652)  2026-02-14T22:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"There is no reason why a dude with excess resources should be limited to one household. Buffet had two wives. Its not like state is footing the bill and they have the resources so all the kids are taken care of. @elonmusk So target is six wives.4 done [--] more to go @elonmusk So target is six wives.4 done [--] more to go"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/2022839458668634206)  2026-02-15T01:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"This is why AI and biotwitter will never transcend slow research. The key fact is often a footnote or subtle detail. @A_May_MD picked up early continuation arm data with $ABVX and correctly calculated that one missing patient skewed $NKTR phase 1b"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1947771936009798011)  2025-07-22T21:33Z [---] followers, 10.3K engagements


"@TTRAmyloid No rezpeg was phase [--] trial with good but limited phase [--] data with [--] years to registration. $ABVX was a registrational trial with higher quality phase [--] data with [--] years to commercial launch in a more lucrative space"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1948052083665518885)  2025-07-23T16:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@anthonystaj None of the primary data is convincing. All the bulls require co-incidental (patients on expanded access) or convoluted metrics. Good data does all the work of convincing you shouldn't need to work on the data"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/1949835118018703667)  2025-07-28T14:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@plainyogurt21 You're overthinking this. At current market cap any positive data comparable to the phase [--] doubles the value of $VYNE. Simple calculus it's a unique MOA in a huge indication with only one licensed product. Nuance of data dictates multiples of upside"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/1949960804804997466)  2025-07-28T22:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Catalysts for $NKTR/Value/Present Value(POS): [--]. LLY settlement/400-600M/300M (60%) [--]. Partner for funded phase [--] AD /500M /100M(20%) [--]. Buyout /1B/200m(20%) [--]. AA trial hits/500m/50m(10%) [--]. rezpeg induces AD remission off drug/500m/150m(30%)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1954301483245310011)  2025-08-09T21:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Preclinical (animal) models are the basis for our understanding of Alopecia Areata. JAKi work robustly in these models. If you can't cure mice you have no hope of curing humans. So efficacy in these models is necessary for translational success. $NKTR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/1960083674210169268)  2025-08-25T20:55Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"This thread links all the preclinical studies looking at Treg expansion in preclinical models of AA. $NKTR Preclinical (animal) models are the basis for our understanding of Alopecia Areata. JAKi work robustly in these models. If you can't cure mice you have no hope of curing humans. So efficacy in these models is necessary for translational success. $NKTR Preclinical (animal) models are the basis for our understanding of Alopecia Areata. JAKi work robustly in these models. If you can't cure mice you have no hope of curing humans. So efficacy in these models is necessary for translational"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/1960087247551864859)  2025-08-25T21:09Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@houndcl @seedy19tron @Albie1228 @A_May_MD I hear you there is risk on the maintenance readout anything can happen. An oral drug however with no black box warning is a very differentiated entrant to the space"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/1960445378462978427)  2025-08-26T20:52Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"There has never been so much collective brain power wasted as on $ATYR which is an obvious pass [--] minutes into DD. I say pass because I don't advocate shorts due to ethical reasons and exposure to extreme tail risks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1965180009351614809)  2025-09-08T22:26Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"From a technical standpoint $NKTR should trade up another 20% with the next key resistance level $64. I think we'll get there by the end of the month which implies 33% upside from current levels. [--] year target $96"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/1965503102595072433)  2025-09-09T19:50Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Short term trade idea: $NKTR for [--] potential catalysts next week : EADV data and possible summary judgement. Expect pop on EADV data crossover placebo pts (90% POS) and possible week [--] data for partial dataset. Could see run to $64 on one of these or $74 on both"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/1966519160143294722)  2025-09-12T15:07Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Will folks stop speaking as if the $atyr shorts are geniuses. The drug was DOA to any one who understands data. There was no nuance or great forensic work required"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/1967687412190154771)  2025-09-15T20:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"This is also why you can have an unfair advantage in biotech: so few people understand data. Clear reasoning seems like magic. Will folks stop speaking as if the $atyr shorts are geniuses. The drug was DOA to any one who understands data. There was no nuance or great forensic work required. Will folks stop speaking as if the $atyr shorts are geniuses. The drug was DOA to any one who understands data. There was no nuance or great forensic work required"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/1967689448822542441)  2025-09-15T20:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$crbp needs some close DD. Oral CB1 inhibitor that may be better than the one $NVO invested over a billion in. Proven mechanism for weight loss at levels in in line with oral GLP1 but with economics of a small molecule"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1967698574302663141)  2025-09-15T21:14Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"There is a chance of non-inferiority by [--] weeks. Dupilumab works faster but plateaus earlier. We need more data points but the rezpeg curve has not plateaued by week [--]. $NKTR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1968670922543337653)  2025-09-18T13:38Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"It would be reckless for $NKTR to start their phase [--] in quarter [--] [----] as telegraphed. They are only beginning to fully understand what they have. They need to push ph3 to Q3 [----] when they have understand fully the escape cohort and maintenance dynamics"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/1968675759817429470)  2025-09-18T13:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Banana_Oncology We're talking alleged sabotage of a billion dollar drug. They would be lucky to settle for $400 million while they can"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/1968690228555554865)  2025-09-18T14:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Biotenic I'm the biggest $NKTR long but AA probably won't work: very tough disease. I think you will need a combination approach for this disease"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/1968718366698270898)  2025-09-18T16:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"You have to respect the work ethic and humor of these $nktr trolls. Indefatigable. $nktr @A_May_MD right now https://t.co/DYT8Ci7WdW $nktr @A_May_MD right now https://t.co/DYT8Ci7WdW"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/1968727638752547308)  2025-09-18T17:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"This needs to stop. It's unethical for a patient in a trial to publicly report how they are doing - I'm sure they must have agreed not to. Doubly unethical to present commentary on such reports. $NKTR Posts from this account evolved from OK feedbacks to more positive feedbacks over time. Snap of the most recent post. **Believe Reddit with pinch of salt though** https://t.co/BC0JGNqkty $NKTR Posts from this account evolved from OK feedbacks to more positive feedbacks over time. Snap of the most recent post. **Believe Reddit with pinch of salt though** https://t.co/BC0JGNqkty"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/1968728933089644877)  2025-09-18T17:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Banana_Oncology Key thing is the crossover placebo cohort replicated exactly the response of other treatment cohorts. Nail in the coffin for LLY as there is no way rezpeg is not active"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1969445270174773647)  2025-09-20T16:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Biohazard3737 They have invested massively in a class that will not displace IL13/IL-4. It will also have some nasty side effects. So will the dual IL-17/IL-13. And Apogee are delusional thinking they will join an OX40 to an IL13"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/1970568935176044767)  2025-09-23T19:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Beware of 3: 1.) Those who only post about one stock always. 2.) Those who delete posts about wrong calls. And most importantly: 3.) those who didn't call a stock in advance but are suddenly experts when it hits"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/1970898149863518396)  2025-09-24T17:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"On which stock exchange where most of these listed and where did they raise most of their capital They are roses in the concrete outliers who thrived despite a hostile environment. For all the chatter that Europe is an aging relic with no innovation European biotechs the past [--] years have made huge impacts on standard of care in medicine. Argenx $ARGX ➡ any IVIG indication Ascendis $ASND ➡ hypoparathyroidism Abivax $ABVX ➡ effective oral option for For all the chatter that Europe is an aging relic with no innovation European biotechs the past [--] years have made huge impacts on standard of care"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/1970901144840060959)  2025-09-24T17:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Taintslapp12283 @iotaresearch It either gets bought out or they raise to registration. There is upside if Crohn's phase [--] hits and from UC extention data. Strong margin of safety in some sense stronger than $NKTR because they have passed phase [--] induction"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1971132187744535006)  2025-09-25T08:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"A generational opportunity implies a 20x or return. It will turn a few thousand dollars into hundreds of thousands tens of thousands into millions. 2x or 3x is not generational can we stop abusing words"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/1971246993575174518)  2025-09-25T16:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"The idea of biotwitter is not to take things at face value and to analyse. We got folks fawning over a N=1 case study and an oncology trial without controls and where half the patients were "censored". Shout out to @plainyogurt21 and @BalaBioResearch for their detailed eye"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/1971305210762199410)  2025-09-25T20:06Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@RNAiAnalyst What's your valuation HS market 1.5B annually. $MLTX will compete against [--] biologics with at best marginal benefit other Bimekizumab. Rational payers will have it second line after generic anti-TNF. R+4 at best [--] billion how do we reach EV of 3.2B + expect a pump on data"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/1971559298364035121)  2025-09-26T12:55Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"AI is a productivity fix not a creativity fix. It makes creative people more productive. Say you have a video Ad idea before you needed $000s to execute now there is instant execution at minimal cost"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/1971565636154474814)  2025-09-26T13:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"There's a biotech with two readouts q4 both likely (60%+ PoS) to be positive but market assigning no value and company trading barely above cash"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/1971623291451552169)  2025-09-26T17:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@TCellEngager They bought the stock at [--] handle"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/1972339478938452263)  2025-09-28T16:35Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@biosleuth The current press release was also sleazy they did not include the table for their preset analysis and only disclosed the table for the secondary analysis"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/1972342047941218411)  2025-09-28T16:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@RNAiAnalyst This is too long: they're f**ked"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/1972352949348368476)  2025-09-28T17:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"To clarify such a poor result for $MLTX was not obvious a priori. Total failure (with negative p) 10% chance was a tail outcome. There was a 30-40% chance of result market expected. Issue was price was too high overlooking high probability (30%) of equivelence to Bimi"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/1972379497958903904)  2025-09-28T19:14Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@RNAiAnalyst [--] handle for sure. FDA registration considered a sure thing is now in doubt. Why mandate [--] phase [--] trials for everyone but allow a swiss company a pass"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/1972383539699298351)  2025-09-28T19:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Many intelligent people were long $MLTX. Error lies in overlooking the crazy overvaluation & accepting the rosy spin on ph2 data from management. That none of the solid hedge funds were long was also a soft alarm sign. One thing I want to say here The market doesn't care if you come up with your own ideas on a long/short thesis or if you copy one and verify it yourself. You don't get any bonus points for starting everywhere from square [--]. There is a wealth of info out there use it One thing I want to say here The market doesn't care if you come up with your own ideas on a long/short thesis or"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/1972418680475783231)  2025-09-28T21:50Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@WassimLaroussi3 Sorry it was a complete failure. The primary end point was not met. It's not fair that Humira/Consentyx and Bimi all had to meet their end point but SLK doesn't. Point of two trials is to prove one positive result wasn't a fluke the outcome casts doubt on drug overall"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1972427168996376871)  2025-09-28T22:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@basadomente It doesn't need a lot of debate. At $26 its screaming buy with a huge margin of safety as price rises MoS falls and there is a point where you sell. Someone might say $80 someone else $96 (me) - doesn't matter as long as you act on what you think"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/1972437926941516201)  2025-09-28T23:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@RNAiAnalyst @A_May_MD Prof Kimball is paid by biopharma Adam makes his money from trading the stock"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/1972663726437290015)  2025-09-29T14:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Sold half $NKTR. Still bullish but was too overweight. Now have a BVF/Cormorant size holding"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1972712993205940384)  2025-09-29T17:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@RNAiAnalyst You've enviable qualifications and have used your knowledge to compound wealth to heady levels. Please accept this error of judgement; you need to take a few days off and speak to people you trust to clear your mind. I think you are in shock"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/1972732975151530042)  2025-09-29T18:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"What people are missing is that $ZURA's hs candidate was a throwaway molecule like $MLTX's. Do you think big pharma throwaway molecules that have promise"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/1973121842283159832)  2025-09-30T20:24Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"$Zura mathmatics: drug (Ixi) never trialed in HS + drug class that failed ph [--] in HS (no marketable efficacy) + big pharma throwaway + odd molecule (larger in size) = standard of care in HS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/1973123357416562785)  2025-09-30T20:30Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"So Merck had SLK in development for nearly a decade and conducted a phase 2B in psoriasis but still disregarded the molecule. Who wants a bet there is an internal document somewhere concluding drug would not be marketable in HS. @tuduni90782 @RNAiAnalyst History matters:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1973130335639535827)  2025-09-30T20:58Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"From the psoriasis data they must have concluded drug was no better than bog standard anti-il-17a. This was confirmed in $mltx's repeat trials; and the wise owl @A_May_MD used this logic to stay clear"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/1973130938469990648)  2025-09-30T21:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@seedy19tron @A_May_MD Seedy charities generally have sky high admin cost we should go and drill wells somewhere ourselves"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/1973798880052383758)  2025-10-02T17:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@seedy19tron is literally running a one man welfare service . Holidays and house extensions being financed with his calls 😅"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/1974444930056761477)  2025-10-04T12:02Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@Taintslapp12283 @Andre_AGTC @GeneInvesting @cigs1234 @RNAiAnalyst @A_May_MD The troll who could"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/1974485422722998503)  2025-10-04T14:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$VTYX worth a look. MC ($260m) barely above cash ($200m) with a readout q4 in pericarditis where market has mispriced chance of success. One competitor with $400m in sales. Biomarker data suggest activity at target with benefit of PO over SC. Tang own 5%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1974523634074235299)  2025-10-04T17:14Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Not true; at the time betting on a me-too IL-13 made economic sense in view of Dupi sales. The Phase [--] also suggested short term remission; fundamentally pharma want you on drug for life. Expensive deal with NKTR no longer made sense and had to be jettisoned. @RNAiAnalyst $NKTR bulls want you to believe $LLy dumped a potential drug out of stupidity. And that ISRs dont count ( they never bother to look definition of moderate ISRs or 5-10 cm plus rate of eosinophilia with long term use ) and that these ISRs are irrelevant when BP decides to @RNAiAnalyst $NKTR bulls want you to believe $LLy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/1974929026230968433)  2025-10-05T20:05Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"This is $NKTRs mechanism of action. Treg modulation. Layman's explantion of Treg Nobel: https://t.co/3HUhVzo1nl Layman's explantion of Treg Nobel: https://t.co/3HUhVzo1nl"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/1975147371546960268)  2025-10-06T10:33Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@Biotenic @seedy19tron @A_May_MD @AaronRosenblum5 @RNAiAnalyst @Sanctuary_Bio @Biohazard3737 As with $NKTR historic trial failures may have left sour taste in investors leading to a misvaluation. Company failed keenly anticipated trial in CD"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/1975237822664577257)  2025-10-06T16:32Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Apogee will be the next $MLTX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1976014432556978185)  2025-10-08T19:58Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Investing in bio without the binaries is like going to a non-alcoholic bar. just saying"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1977122949778874777)  2025-10-11T21:23Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@RNAiAnalyst Dirk blink twice if you need help"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/1977142191727247860)  2025-10-11T22:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Skye Bioscience CEO Punit Dhillon's total compensation was approximately $6.14 million in [----]. The compensation for Abivax's CEO Marc M. de Garidel is [------] annually ($1 = $1.16)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1977485679668945150)  2025-10-12T21:25Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Simple calculus for $NKTR. Huge margin of safety by historic valuations and asymmetric upside to potential first-line if induces remission. I would buy for my retired grandparents and my kids college fund"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/1979662699756933287)  2025-10-18T21:35Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Most of the $NKTR chatter is nervous retail looking for confirmation bias. It's an extremely comfortable hold if you understand the M&A comps AtD TAM and the unique science"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/1979677529964478687)  2025-10-18T22:34Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Personally on biotwitter I want to hear counter theses to stocks owned and to learn of new stocks. Not interested in group therapy to feel good about buys. $NKTR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/1979690459770532062)  2025-10-18T23:26Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@LogicalThesis To clarify Nektar has blown up [--] x billion dollar big pharma partnerships. With LLY and Merck. These were well publiced and if there is a big pharma black list they're on it. Current litigation is a further bad look - fairly or unfairly"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1979952808523682065)  2025-10-19T16:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"This is essentially the thesis. The valuation will catch up eventually with flow of data. Best upside was pre data or shortly after. New entrants are late to the party. We said buy at $24. Quite amazing that $APGE an innovation-free IL-13 is a $3.6B market cap and $NKTR with a FIC Treg is at $1.2B. I know I sound like a cultist but it feels like those numbers should be flipped. Quite amazing that $APGE an innovation-free IL-13 is a $3.6B market cap and $NKTR with a FIC Treg is at $1.2B. I know I sound like a cultist but it feels like those numbers should be flipped"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/1981672843265065156)  2025-10-24T10:43Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"If any of you guys would like to critique my new pitch prior to its general release please get in touch. DMs open. Like $VTYX this one is literally hiding in plane sight and no one is talking about it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/1985087637657624647)  2025-11-02T20:52Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Personally I don't want generalists to find out about this thing of ours. P.S Thank you to the folks expressed interest in critiquing the next pitch I will be in touch soon"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/1985113350691287473)  2025-11-02T22:34Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@Biohazard3737 We need a name"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/1986145623943286821)  2025-11-05T18:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"When I spoke about the ethics of shorting no one understood what I meant. Heres a case study $SLNO dont know if this short seller is realizing what he is doing. There are risks and benefits for this drug that are well established. Trying to highlight every death in FEARS and using Facebook posts (whether trt related are not is not straightforward) is sabotaging a risk $SLNO dont know if this short seller is realizing what he is doing. There are risks and benefits for this drug that are well established. Trying to highlight every death in FEARS and using Facebook posts (whether trt related are"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/1986181210524053964)  2025-11-05T21:17Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"My next pitch is $ANAB. 50% chance it hits in UC. Immediate upside 200% vs 10-20% down. Huge assymetrical play with no threat to capital. $MLTX/$ABIVAX were both plays where you loose 90% on negative readout a priori. With downside protection $ANAB is one to load up on"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1986194109158064479)  2025-11-05T22:09Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"$NKTR indicated that ph3 induction phase will be [--] weeks not [--]. We predicted this would be case though I don't think it's ethical to have a patient on placebo for that long. They sound bullish on AA which is difficult to blind for"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/1986841969713201472)  2025-11-07T17:03Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"They probably have large chunk of AA data back and efficacy will leak through because of low placebo. Naturally very sceptical on basis of science but a positive readout would be a very big surprise and extremely consequential"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/1986844300773109851)  2025-11-07T17:12Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@dtklp1 very good point. even raw numbers of who entered what follow-up gives the game away. Thank you for highlighting that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/1986845321138233406)  2025-11-07T17:16Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"In a large trial a few months before read out it is very difficult for company to not have some idea what direction readout is looking. Company psychology useful if there a long track record of behaviour to observe"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/1986846481513689229)  2025-11-07T17:21Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@AaronRosenblum5 Valid point about making it harder to enroll. Also a very American attitude which cuts both ways. US Placebo is so sky high probably because US patients probably get extra non-disclosed treatments on the side"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/1986854607310455179)  2025-11-07T17:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Here's the long version of the $ANAB pitch. https://distressedequity.substack.com/p/what-if-the-next-abivax-is-hiding https://distressedequity.substack.com/p/what-if-the-next-abivax-is-hiding"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1986994948848197900)  2025-11-08T03:11Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"⚠Data to be viewed with caution due to high drop out rate. Probably overestimates deepening efficacy as slow responders already fed up with [--] months of placebo are probably overestimated in those dropping out. $NKTR looking good with the mature data https://t.co/RgGEYtTWUR $NKTR looking good with the mature data https://t.co/RgGEYtTWUR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1987297787076034882)  2025-11-08T23:14Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"I know this is going to anger $NKTR bulls but data needs to be viewed critically"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/1987297954139349025)  2025-11-08T23:15Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Rezpeg is not as effective as dupi but can differentiate itself by safety and durability of effect. $NKTR would do better to find biomarkers of response that could be used to predict responders rather than prolong the trial to [--] weeks in the hope of catching up with Dupi"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1987302568813351113)  2025-11-08T23:33Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"The ITT adjustment for this new $NKTR data is easy to do. You just assume the dropouts were negative and add them back to the W40 outcomes. Can someone on Biox please do that and post updated figures. (I've already written a detailed pitch for free this weekend.)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/1987306988695408944)  2025-11-08T23:51Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@basadomente It's also practical because if response is binary rather than time dependent why waste money with a much larger induction time frame"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/1987308298639429761)  2025-11-08T23:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$ANAB readout negative. Downside 15% so in range expected. Was an asymmetrical trade so 5% hit to portfolio despite large position (30%). Disappointing but its an odds game and there was no catastrophic loss. No regrets"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1987930699362422978)  2025-11-10T17:09Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"$ABVX has replaced my savings account to be honest. Implied APR beats what any bank can offer and you have the chance of a 40%+ bonus"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1987981096655745095)  2025-11-10T20:30Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Formalising pitches in writing has been super helpful. Most often this leads to bigger position. Appreciate all who gave feedback on $ANAB"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1988324090982367732)  2025-11-11T19:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Best way to think of AA for $NKTR is as a free shot at goal not priced in. My revised PoS is 25%. Failure would raise attention to lack of ph3 funding for AD and likely put short term pressure on valuation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/1989011768622862460)  2025-11-13T16:45Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Beyond a vague mechanistic argument about Tregs strongest argument is that Dupi appears to work in AA and rezpeg is working in similar type [--] indications"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/1989012691046842756)  2025-11-13T16:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"As a community we need to punish block and shun blatant rampers like this. Statements need to be supported by evidence or rationale. Whos man is this $NKTR AA hits stat sig almost Asuredly. 80/20 probability. PBO is extremely 👀low $NKTR AA hits stat sig almost Asuredly. 80/20 probability. PBO is extremely 👀low"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/1989047998236508579)  2025-11-13T19:09Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"There are forensic issues with the $NKTR AA data notwithstanding the lack of stat sig at a sample size where you would expect it there is no dose response and minimal seperation between severe and very severe groups running contrary to basically most peer studies"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/2003182845666427156)  2025-12-22T19:16Z [---] followers, 11K engagements


"Can anyone with weekly script data for $PTHS please DM me"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/2002496422055461285)  2025-12-20T21:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Tintincapital IPOs can be lucrative especially government ones. The Dubai property companies have had lucrative returns. Its undercovered and inefficient creating room for alpha. You might need a trip to setup trading accounts/bank accounts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hannibalspeaks/status/2017589184450465860)  2026-01-31T13:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

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