#  @blueoutliercap Ryan Rahinsky
Ryan Rahinsky posts on X about $geo, geo, $elf, in the the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours.
### Engagements: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::1433023443075805185/interactions)
- [--] Week [-----] +133%
- [--] Month [------] +23%
- [--] Months [----------] -53%
- [--] Year [----------] +274%
### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1433023443075805185/posts_active)
- [--] Week [--] +50%
- [--] Month [--] -18%
- [--] Months [--] +19%
- [--] Year [--] +15%
### Followers: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1433023443075805185/followers)
- [--] Week [-----] no change
- [--] Month [-----] +0.15%
- [--] Months [-----] +13%
- [--] Year [-----] +21%
### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::1433023443075805185/influencer_rank)
### Social Influence
**Social category influence**
[finance](/list/finance) [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) [stocks](/list/stocks) [countries](/list/countries) [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) [us election](/list/us-election) [social networks](/list/social-networks) [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)
**Social topic influence**
[$geo](/topic/$geo), [geo](/topic/geo), [$elf](/topic/$elf), [in the](/topic/in-the), [$ceix](/topic/$ceix), [$cxw](/topic/$cxw), [market](/topic/market), [share](/topic/share), [$flr](/topic/$flr), [to the](/topic/to-the)
**Top assets mentioned**
[The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO)](/topic/$geo) [aelf (ELF)](/topic/$elf) [CONSOL Energy Inc. (CEIX)](/topic/$ceix) [CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW)](/topic/$cxw) [Flare (FLR)](/topic/$flr) [NuScale Power Corporation (SMR)](/topic/$smr) [Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (AMR)](/topic/$amr) [Morgan Stanley (MS)](/topic/morgan-stanley) [Cornerstone Building Brands, Inc. (CNR)](/topic/$cnr) [Iris Energy Limited (IREN)](/topic/$iren) [Vistra, Corp. (VST)](/topic/$vst) [Constellation Energy Corp (CEG)](/topic/$ceg) [CSX Corporation (CSX)](/topic/$csx) [Archway (ARCH)](/topic/$arch)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"$CSX on JPM presentation March 15th - "we've had some good weeks in metals in fact couple weeks ago week [--] was our best week in metals since [----] so almost a decade high in metals shipments". Also said coal is strong particularly export. $NUE $AMR $ARCH"
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1639725376132853762) 2023-03-25T20:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"In stark contrast to $UNP $CSX is executing for their coal partners. Impressive quarter from CSX"
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1649150636968013827) 2023-04-20T20:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Still in $CXW smaller $GEO. Daily crossings/apprehensions still 30-40% above prepandemic levels. With mass parole under an injunction and likely to get struck down permanently populations at ICE facilities should continue to trend upwards. If not margin expansion anyways from"
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1663900925239472129) 2023-05-31T13:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Read the complaint. Good chance this is accepted thus forcing ICE/CBP to hold those detained until their court date or deportation. This would have drastic effects on population levels that are already rising. Market hasn't reacted or processed this seemingly. $CXW $GEO"
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1665725144684277762) 2023-06-05T14:19Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Average hourly earnings +4.7% yoy disproportionately fueled by lower earners. Q1 consumer spending at +4.2% yoy. Core CPI still at +4.8%. Still way too much wage inflation in the bottom half of earners fueling consumer spending and leading to stubborn core inflation"
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1679193388703154189) 2023-07-12T18:17Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@MBjegovic @tecken_tan @therealdrmax @jessefelder @VincentDeluard Prices can only rise so far unless wages are riding in tandem. That is the wage price spiral. Prices rising but wages rising in response supporting demand at yet higher prices and on the spiral goes. Again more workers would reduce the need to raise wages and would lower"
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1682804840659918848) 2023-07-22T18:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"This is factually incorrect 1) When exactly did we have a lower UR with comparable levels of participation When have we ever had comparable levels of either and been successful on reducing inflation in a high inflation regime It's too low because of the wage growth we're seeing leading to increased spending and inflation. In the 70s UR was much higher and needed to be driven to double digits to kill the wage price spiral. We also benefitted from companies outsourcing production overseas changing the supply demand dynamic of labor. The same bottom of the distribution disproportionately"
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1682820034593275911) 2023-07-22T18:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@MBjegovic @tecken_tan @therealdrmax @jessefelder @VincentDeluard I'm done refuting you. You remain incorrect on many things. We'll let the next few years play out and come back to this. From what I've seen so far I bet you were a believer in transitory inflation that was never a problem. You have a fundamental misunderstanding of inflation"
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1682831894763765760) 2023-07-22T19:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@DumbAlphaa @the_red_deer My question in this situation is what's the best case scenario for them That the hedges pay off If this quarters move in rates holds shouldn't this be a big positive quarter from a hedging perspective @DumbAlphaa @the_red_deer"
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1693991030495093077) 2023-08-22T14:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@DumbAlphaa @the_red_deer not the hedges themselves that are paying off but gains from MRBs more than offsetting the hedge losses. This interest rate move holds through the quarter and they should continue to benefit. Is this best case scenario for their situation"
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1693993579813953664) 2023-08-22T14:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Jimmy Brock is a national treasure $CEIX"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1707447421792330135) 2023-09-28T17:29Z [----] followers, 50.8K engagements
"Failed foreign policy on every front from the Middle East and Russia to Venezuela. COLUMN: Follow the oil money to stop Iran-backed militia attacks. "My back-of-the-envelope arithmetic suggests Iran pocketed the non-trivial sum of more than $10 billion last year thanks to its higher oil output." #OOTT #Iran #RedSea #Yemen @Opinion https://t.co/zl9ysexNS5 COLUMN: Follow the oil money to stop Iran-backed militia attacks. "My back-of-the-envelope arithmetic suggests Iran pocketed the non-trivial sum of more than $10 billion last year thanks to its higher oil output." #OOTT #Iran #RedSea #Yemen"
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1752326880068350286) 2024-01-30T13:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Will be interesting to see details $GEO"
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1754232776151167309) 2024-02-04T19:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$GEO what stands out to me"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1754312609308770681) 2024-02-05T01:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"If you're right about dom demand in the next year those dom contracts are going to be pushed off and they'll pivot those tons into export as they've been doing. Already approaching their contract floors risks to the upside now. Itmann costs will be lower post full ramp up but has been disappointing. Buybacks are ultimately going to drive the rerate"
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1754893941961367830) 2024-02-06T15:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Oh no how'd that get there UNRWA = Hamas Beneath UNRWAs Gaza Strip headquarters the IDF has uncovered one of Hamass most significant and top secret assets: a subterranean data center used by the terror group for intelligence and communications. The terror group built the server farm complete with an electrical room https://t.co/yCNPM51imV Beneath UNRWAs Gaza Strip headquarters the IDF has uncovered one of Hamass most significant and top secret assets: a subterranean data center used by the terror group for intelligence and communications. The terror group built the server farm complete with"
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1756387620416819688) 2024-02-10T18:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Happy to discuss. Agree with you that most market makers are quants trying their best with their models and algorithms to do this at scale. That's the opportunity. The variables they take into consideration at scale (most importantly historical/implied vol) not being the ones that really matter for the stock/situation over the life of the long-term term option. Vast majority of option volume is short-term and those are priced pretty efficiently so they don't really worry about the long-term inefficiencies. These models assume a normal distribution of outcomes as well. Sometimes you can find"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1759931271793254500) 2024-02-20T13:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I try to use options to structure better risk to reward than longing the underlying stock when there is enough margin of safety for my forecasts and probabilities of where the stock will be at expiration. I normally look at the premium I'm paying as the cost to do business to structure a more favorable risk to reward and normally plan to hold until expiration. There are nuances and sometimes I'm expressing a direct view of future vol not looking like historical/impied vol and other short-term or special sits but normally I'm thinking probalistically and looking for situations where the"
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1760002289157161411) 2024-02-20T18:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$137 million charge seems very small for the hit to market cap. Alleviates the worst fears likely a blip in a year or two. ADM Revises Years of Internal Sales After Accounting Probe"
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1767543334988304750) 2024-03-12T13:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$GEO $CXW Supreme Court Wont Block Texas Immigration Law"
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1770160396810297560) 2024-03-19T18:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Been surprised in the weakness and multiple contraction compared to peers. 1/ $JACK is a franchisor of the Jack-in-the-Box ("JITB") and Del Taco ("DT") collectively [----] restaurants. JITB and DT are 94% and 71% franchised respectively. $JACK closed at $52.45 and mgmt just updated FY24E EPS guidance to $6.25-6.40 (8.3x P/E at the midpoint). 1/ $JACK is a franchisor of the Jack-in-the-Box ("JITB") and Del Taco ("DT") collectively [----] restaurants. JITB and DT are 94% and 71% franchised respectively. $JACK closed at $52.45 and mgmt just updated FY24E EPS guidance to $6.25-6.40 (8.3x P/E at the"
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1793115637780529238) 2024-05-22T03:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Border security becoming bipartisan. $GEO Biden to Issue Executive Order on Southern Border Limiting Asylum Rules https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-to-issue-executive-order-on-southern-border-limiting-asylum-rules-a9a021a5 https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-to-issue-executive-order-on-southern-border-limiting-asylum-rules-a9a021a5"
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1797659567981248784) 2024-06-03T16:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"They say it helps with customer relationships but the deprioritization of third-party capital to take these opportunities from the balance sheet doesn't make sense. The justifications for this was basically the work we're doing isn't worth the profit we're getting doing it with third party capital so we're going to do this from the balance sheet and do the same amount of work for more return. This logic totally ignores the highest return opportunity for the incremental dollar which I expect to be buybacks"
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1813573296400797892) 2024-07-17T13:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@pennycheck @orrdavid She defended the antisemitic campus protesters and her step daughter raised money for the UNRWA. She would absolutely be worse for Israel than Biden or Trump I don't think that's arguable"
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1815377566225539456) 2024-07-22T13:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$GEO suffering from Trump odds reversing but seems overblown. Harris said yesterday at her rally that she'll be tough on the border and supports Bidens proposal that would have been very beneficial to GEO. She also released a new campaign ad that had media outlets calling her a border hawk. Sure Trump would likely be much better but the share price doesn't belong here no matter who's next in the White House. Immigration and border security is becoming bipartisan. https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/09/harris-promises-to-go-tough-on-border-security-00173485"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1822290722503946637) 2024-08-10T15:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$ELF This being sold on guidance is an opportunity. "Our approach on guidance I should mention is a pretty conservative approach. If you look back over five and a half years we usually take a very balanced view one quarter at a time. For example last year I think our initial guidance was something like 22-24% growth and we delivered 71% growth." Early innings of geographic expansion where they're often debuting as the #1 brand. Long runway of growth ahead. Elf Beauty getting hit today despite a beat and a raise. CEO Tarang Amin says the company takes a cautious approach to guidance but he's"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1823078491539091615) 2024-08-12T19:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@odcventures They're the most affordable option by far priced much below comparable competitors. They have room to raise prices if they need to like they did last time tariffs were introduced. Should also matter less as they get an increasing exposure to outside the US with their expansion"
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1823082921001120127) 2024-08-12T19:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$GEO Founder and Executive Chairman with an additional 250k shares purchased. $GEO suffering from Trump odds reversing but seems overblown. Harris said yesterday at her rally that she'll be tough on the border and supports Bidens proposal that would have been very beneficial to GEO. She also released a new campaign ad that had media outlets calling her a $GEO suffering from Trump odds reversing but seems overblown. Harris said yesterday at her rally that she'll be tough on the border and supports Bidens proposal that would have been very beneficial to GEO. She also released a new campaign ad"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1823688793607553228) 2024-08-14T11:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$GEO $CXW Harris says she supports Bidens border bill and would sign it. Takes the severe downside case out of the prison companies this is likely as bad as it gets for them no matter who wins. Border security has become bipartisan"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1829327911079354758) 2024-08-30T01:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$ELF High margin high growth business with a long growth runway going for a reasonable valuation. Theyre an asset light company similar in business model to Coke. Theyve been taking a patient approach with their international expansion which seems to have been the correct strategy judging by their success in entering new markets in a dominant position. Only in a handful of countries right now with another few planned they have a long international growth runway ahead. They dont want to grow so fast that their existing partners suffer but should growth in their existing markets slow theyll"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1834227155938484569) 2024-09-12T13:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@orrdavid All the companies in this boat should be going for a lower multiple imo. https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1828415560998080694t=XVt6hZ9eUXR0_5qtEClzZA&s=19 AI is an existential threat and disruptor to mega cap tech which is why they're less concerned about ROI. This spend should be seen as defensive in nature to protect the business. If this is the case and ROI may very well be negative why are these companies trading at https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1828415560998080694t=XVt6hZ9eUXR0_5qtEClzZA&s=19 AI is an existential threat and disruptor to mega cap tech which is why"
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1835663039544095108) 2024-09-16T12:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"RIP Legend Kris Kristofferson Singer Songwriter and Actor Dead at [--] https://www.bloomberg.com/en/news/thp/2024-09-29/kris-kristofferson-singer-songwriter-and-actor-dies-at-88 https://www.bloomberg.com/en/news/thp/2024-09-29/kris-kristofferson-singer-songwriter-and-actor-dies-at-88"
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1840580632109305999) 2024-09-30T02:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Everyone hated it at $30 but seem to love it at $50. Glad management took advantage to retire shares. $YUMC Share price weakness this year has surprised me but doesn't seem fundamentally warranted. Management taking full advantage by retiring shares over 5% of shares retired YTD. Share price weakness this year has surprised me but doesn't seem fundamentally warranted. Management taking full advantage by retiring shares over 5% of shares retired YTD"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1841629721861177818) 2024-10-03T00:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Republicans sweep up to 47% on polymarket. No one owns enough $GEO in that scenario"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1849446179546771519) 2024-10-24T13:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Republicans sweep up to 97%. Although I expect this to be volatile this isn't a short-term trade imo. With a sweep Trump has his mandate which includes locking down the border and mass deportations. $GEO will likely have a large earnings inflection which should allow them to hit their leverage target and pivot to buybacks expeditiously. Republicans sweep up to 47% on polymarket. No one owns enough $GEO in that scenario. Republicans sweep up to 47% on polymarket. No one owns enough $GEO in that scenario"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1854152318700154995) 2024-11-06T13:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$GEO The bull case highlighted from quotes from the earnings call yesterday. I think to speak in generalities; were looking at a theoretical potential doubling of all of our services whether its in the detention segment in the transportation segment as well as the ISAP program. (The previous version of the House Homeland Security Appropriations Bill) would have also required the use of electronic GPS monitoring for all individuals in the non-detained docket (of illegal immigrants awaiting court proceedings) which is currently estimated to be more than [--] million people. (current participant"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1854897171344015632) 2024-11-08T14:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"They're entering new geographies and debuting as the number one brand for their retail partners and staying there (Netherlands Italy Germany). That should tell you that their current marketing (much of which is through mediums that are global in nature and not geographically targeted) is likely more effective than their sales show. Marketing spend as a percentage of revenue I expect to go down as they expand disagree that they need a big ramp up in spend to achieve success in new markets. Just look at the success they've had already in every market they enter"
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1855250928812605553) 2024-11-09T14:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$ELF management responds strongly: "Muddy Waters has made numerous inaccurate statements about e.l.f. Beauty and our business by relying upon incomplete data and flawed assumptions omitting critical context and presenting speculation as fact. In particular in early [----] for competitive reasons and as permitted by applicable regulations we filed a request for confidentiality withU.S.Customs and Border Protection with respect to our customs import data. Therefore import data available to the public after February [--] [----] does not include a substantial majority of our actualU.S.imports. Further"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1859574264745095672) 2024-11-21T12:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$GEO https://www.wsj.com/politics/senate-republicans-aim-to-tackle-border-first-taxes-later-98026ef8st=W1a4yr https://www.wsj.com/politics/senate-republicans-aim-to-tackle-border-first-taxes-later-98026ef8st=W1a4yr"
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1864159616323514629) 2024-12-04T04:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@hkuppy @LingmerthStefan @PauloMacro Unless if Russia is invading Ukraine again I'm not sure I'd make that comparison"
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1865870037933813982) 2024-12-08T21:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@stressed_assets I just don't see the appeal in TH compared to GEO. GEO is still not getting enough credit for the supervision side of the business. That's the real cash cow and opportunity and peers don't have it"
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1873733248502952378) 2024-12-30T14:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@nim_chef Hard to say but has to go up to somewhat closer to a utility multiple. If the contract is for over a decade and for the majority of capacity you'd think that's a pretty definitive income stream that they should rerate from but will need to see the details of the deal first"
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1876821265308119144) 2025-01-08T02:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Looks like MW sticking to the fraud short thesis on $ELF. Like I said right for the wrong reasons. My response: That makes no sense when considering they posted another revenue beat of over 7% in the last quarter. They're only going to get on the unwinding of this alleged massive fraud by forecasting stagnant growth next quarter My problem with their execution is they're not expanding internationally fast enough. If they were trying to make up sales to cover up fraud they would be expanding everywhere as quickly as they could. I think the more likely answer is that sales growth is slowing as"
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1888052471706038363) 2025-02-08T02:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$CEIX $CNR would be at least 50% higher if they never did the deal. European natural gas benchmark TTF surges above [--] per MWh put it in oil terms it has reached ***the $100 per barrel of oil equivalent level***. Absolutely destructive for energy-intensive manufacturing. European natural gas benchmark TTF surges above [--] per MWh put it in oil terms it has reached ***the $100 per barrel of oil equivalent level***. Absolutely destructive for energy-intensive manufacturing"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1888957109603049858) 2025-02-10T14:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
""But using military aircraft to transport some migrants to their home countries or to a military base at Guantanamo Bay has proved expensive and inefficient" The most efficient option for detention/transport/supervision is private enterprise $GEO $CXW https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/trump-deportation-flights-paused-cost-c37c577ast=5uu9Lh https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/trump-deportation-flights-paused-cost-c37c577ast=5uu9Lh"
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1897349092482953292) 2025-03-05T18:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@mfwarder What could have been 😪 https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1822989839223926925t=KX_bUOMt9UmVQvNJq5fbNw&s=19 https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1822989839223926925t=KX_bUOMt9UmVQvNJq5fbNw&s=19"
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1903245311549538705) 2025-03-22T00:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"What an absolute clown. Spewing bullshit on things he doesn't understand and can't justify but sure call the Jew a nazi and block him instead of justifying yourself. Imagine giving this guy money. @bennpeifert"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1921762935677894812) 2025-05-12T03:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Think this might be a bigger deal than it seems. Piper Sandler had an analysis back in February that $ELF can offset a 30% tariff with a 2% price increase (and a 40% tariff offset by 6%). This price hike seems well above those levels and likely to expand margins as long as tariffs remain here while still being low enough that I'm not expecting unit sales to suffer. Likely to even see unit growth as pinched consumers trade down and prioritize value. Starting August [--] our prices are going up by $1.* Bringing you the best of beauty is getting more $$$ but were committed to keeping the quality"
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1926249826678669799) 2025-05-24T12:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"AG Bondi and Homan both previously on the $GEO payroll https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/05/27/border-czar-ethics-consulting-fees/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/05/27/border-czar-ethics-consulting-fees/"
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1927383607586275463) 2025-05-27T15:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$GEO Under the leadership of @POTUS Trump and @Sec_Noem @ICEgov has been empowered to enforce the law and put the safety of American citizens FIRST. https://t.co/N2Kevf5Uq9 Under the leadership of @POTUS Trump and @Sec_Noem @ICEgov has been empowered to enforce the law and put the safety of American citizens FIRST. https://t.co/N2Kevf5Uq9"
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1941560091683291350) 2025-07-05T18:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$GEO ICE moves to shackle some [------] immigrants with GPS ankle monitors https://www.washingtonpost.com/immigration/2025/07/24/ice-check-in-ankle-monitor-immigrants/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/immigration/2025/07/24/ice-check-in-ankle-monitor-immigrants/"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1948346551329305065) 2025-07-24T11:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$GEO Trump Administration Orders Massive Expansion of GPS Ankle Monitors for Immigrants Ankle monitors could double taxpayer costs to $500000 per day despite nearly 100% compliance for people in ICE's alternatives to detention program. https://t.co/5h2vPjpKk5 Trump Administration Orders Massive Expansion of GPS Ankle Monitors for Immigrants Ankle monitors could double taxpayer costs to $500000 per day despite nearly 100% compliance for people in ICE's alternatives to detention program. https://t.co/5h2vPjpKk5"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1949614997799117119) 2025-07-27T23:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$GEO The former private prison exec behind ICEs immigrant detention surge https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/08/01/ice-david-venturella-geo-immigration-detention/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/08/01/ice-david-venturella-geo-immigration-detention/"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1951727615825326321) 2025-08-02T19:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Think both $ELF and $GEO getting unfairly punished for short-term effects of little meaning. $ELF results backwards looking from a much higher tariff rate than there is today and not reflecting the price increase that went into effect Aug 1st. With the current tariff rate ELF estimates a $50M annual impact. Unless if there is major demand destruction which I don't expect the dollar per unit price increase is likely to bring in at least $150M being a net positive. I wonder if the credit card data starting to reflect this price increase will have any impact on sentiment. I also thought it was"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1953529903086805006) 2025-08-07T18:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$GEO back to election day levels despite an evolution fundamentally that bulls could have only wished for. Arrests and detention numbers at all-time highs ICE officers rising 50% ATD prioritizing higher cost ankle monitoring ICE budget is tripling. The administration is filled with former GEO employees and lobbyists from the border czar Tom Homan to the AG Pam Bondi. Thanks to their recent state prison sale they've even delevered and introduced a buyback sooner than I expected. Despite all this the market doesn't seem to appreciate the uncertainty and lack of current earnings inflection. With"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1955270967963406381) 2025-08-12T14:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@resetbasis Dude loves to talk shit about things he doesnt understand. https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1921762935677894812t=ra5lUanofMgyCbMZAyyb_Q&s=19 What an absolute clown. Spewing bullshit on things he doesn't understand and can't justify but sure call the Jew a nazi and block him instead of justifying yourself. Imagine giving this guy money. @bennpeifert https://t.co/I4xhOBRap7 https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1921762935677894812t=ra5lUanofMgyCbMZAyyb_Q&s=19 What an absolute clown. Spewing bullshit on things he doesn't understand and can't justify but sure call the Jew a nazi and"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1957480654775505249) 2025-08-18T16:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Happy Rhode initial retail store launch day to those who celebrate. Debuting in Sephora in the U.S. and Canada today. $ELF"
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1963602118461345906) 2025-09-04T13:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"This is what the WH is posting and you're not long $GEO 🚁🚁🚁 https://t.co/6LSUCBcDQK 🚁🚁🚁 https://t.co/6LSUCBcDQK"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1964360537115947077) 2025-09-06T16:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$FLR was trading at an EV of $5.5B (excluding their Nuscale stake) at the end of [----] when $SMR was trading around [--] dollars a share. SMR share price has more than 10xed since then with FLR's stake now worth $5B yet FLR hasn't gotten any credit for this and is still at an EV of $5.5B (excluding SMR) despite being more deleveraged and generally in a better place with own their businesses compared to [----]. FLR wants to cut their SMR stake in half and just converted 15M shares that ended their lock-up period last week. I'm hopeful that they monetize this quickly and proceeds go to buybacks as"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1967568924691550713) 2025-09-15T12:39Z [----] followers, 12.7K engagements
"They're selling. Recent Form [---] for the 15M shares said 'The shares represented by this filing are expected to be sold from time-to-time in multiple transactions within [--] months of this filing.' Hell of a cash influx before year end. $FLR $SMR"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1969018042651930767) 2025-09-19T12:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@InvestInOnG I dont disagree. Just dream about what could have been if Consol just did buybacks the whole time and didnt bother with this mess"
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1976066023129481492) 2025-10-08T23:23Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"I get that and Itmann was a huge disappointment. I just disagree that they needed diversification. PAMC is too much of a cash machine their production cost is so low. I didn't even think the contracting to the extent they do made sense with where they are on the cost curve. Along with a balance sheet that was net cash I think Consol could have weathered anything. Even a much more leveraged Consol did ok during the pandemic compared to peers or other commodities. If anything the diversification looks more important for the met guys. ARCH did well for their shareholders to tie their boat to"
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1976071194693505267) 2025-10-08T23:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"When you underperform on the way up and on the way down it's time to reevaluate capital allocation. $ARCH"
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1664310985190932481) 2023-06-01T16:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I had a great time attending and presenting at ValueX Vail. Great experience with an incredible group of people. I presented on the opportunity in coal and the transformation of Consol Energy $CEIX I look forward to attending again in the future"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1805263992987803734) 2024-06-24T15:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"If $ELF doesn't capitalize on their international success by ramping up their expansion I think its possible someone else could do it for them. A global competitor who they've been eating market share from could acquire the company and use their infrastructure to quickly expand globally. Would provide a long growth runway to the legacy acquirer at an attractive valuation and take out a competitor that's been eating into your business domestically before they do too much damage internationally. $ELF No new country expansion announcements in two quarters now. The fact they have growth slowing"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1887906611974279288) 2025-02-07T16:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$CXW call made it sound like they're shopping for assets. $TH seems like the logical target with their existing relationship and they highlighted them positively a couple of times on the call. Wouldn't shock me if something is done here eventually"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1889689015957303802) 2025-02-12T14:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Agreed $HNRG I've got pretty high conviction that this power trade is inning 2-3 vs played out. Power has never been a meaningful bottleneck for compute. Now it is as essential of an ingredient as chip innovations. This is what I was carrying prior to liquidation: VST CCJ VG EQT BE VRT EQT I've got pretty high conviction that this power trade is inning 2-3 vs played out. Power has never been a meaningful bottleneck for compute. Now it is as essential of an ingredient as chip innovations. This is what I was carrying prior to liquidation: VST CCJ VG EQT BE VRT EQT"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1929945953169006702) 2025-06-03T16:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$HNRG $IREN Morgan Stanley: We believe the consensus view is not sufficiently bullish regarding the value creation opportunity for companies that can provide "time to power" solutions for data centers. One example of a way to think about the value creation potential: through [----] if $IREN Morgan Stanley: We believe the consensus view is not sufficiently bullish regarding the value creation opportunity for companies that can provide "time to power" solutions for data centers. One example of a way to think about the value creation potential: through [----] if"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1931721623184298428) 2025-06-08T14:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$FLR has now sold 14.1M shares of $SMR for proceeds of $560M in about [--] weeks. 900k shares more to sell in this 15M tranche and then hopefully a new conversion and sell program is announced soon. 111M more shares able to be converted and sold although only expecting them to sell another 50M or so to reach their target of 20-25% ownership. Huge cash inflows for their EV. $FLR was trading at an EV of $5.5B (excluding their Nuscale stake) at the end of [----] when $SMR was trading around [--] dollars a share. SMR share price has more than 10xed since then with FLR's stake now worth $5B yet FLR hasn't"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1975328895118590171) 2025-10-06T22:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"What a mess and more proof that this merger should have never occurred. $CNR"
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1975900135688380417) 2025-10-08T12:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$FLR $605M in proceeds in less than [--] days and "intends to use a majority of the proceeds from this sale to enhance its ongoing share repurchase program.""
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1976382629319717050) 2025-10-09T20:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Getting $FLR net of their $SMR stake for about $0 EV right now after accounting for recent proceeds offset with NOLs. This for a company with its own tailwinds that's actively monetizing their stake and using proceeds for buybacks. $FLR $605M in proceeds in less than [--] days and "intends to use a majority of the proceeds from this sale to enhance its ongoing share repurchase program." https://t.co/jSjqZqkRCY $FLR $605M in proceeds in less than [--] days and "intends to use a majority of the proceeds from this sale to enhance its ongoing share repurchase program." https://t.co/jSjqZqkRCY"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1977797786453065775) 2025-10-13T18:05Z [----] followers, 10.1K engagements
"Not making as much as hoped so far but ICE just got their budget tripled at the end of August and is now dealing with the shutdown. Interior enforcement has been going vertical backlog of court cases continues to rise new contracts for their idled facilities were popping up frequently prior to the shutdown they just got a [--] year renewal on the supervision side of the business had a deleveraging event selling a facility. Have to get past the shutdown but expecting enforcement to continue to ramp and that tripled ICE budget to be spent next year should really start to see the earnings"
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1981440717357785562) 2025-10-23T19:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$ELF quarter is indefensible. Current management not the ones to fix it. Seemingly thinking they're still in growth mode with SG&A exploding with little growth to show for it. Guidance was atrocious for their core ELF brand they should be accelerating international rollout and cutting back on marketing in the US where they're already well known and established if the brand is mature domestically. No real evidence the price hike went to the bottom line but seems like some pricing was slow to kick in so maybe this is a bit delayed. Guidance for ELF under price hike seems to suggest there's some"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1986466399460442335) 2025-11-06T16:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$FLR $SMR big news https://www.nuscalepower.com/press-releases/2025/fluor-and-nuscale-announce-agreement-regarding-stake-monetization https://www.nuscalepower.com/press-releases/2025/fluor-and-nuscale-announce-agreement-regarding-stake-monetization"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1986556332829495424) 2025-11-06T22:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$FLR Said on the call that the $800m in buybacks is from the first tranche of $SMR divestment/cash flows and that buybacks after February will continue with the new sale proceeds. They could retire an insane amount of shares over the next year. Divestment of the SMR stake starts next week. $FLR https://t.co/4Xgz14fl0q $FLR https://t.co/4Xgz14fl0q"
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1986797372987281668) 2025-11-07T14:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$FLR As per the form [---] "In accordance with interpretive letters from the SEC to Goldman Sachs & Co. (12/20/99) and Bank of America N.A. Merrill Lynch Pierce Fenner & Smith Inc. (12/1/11) the shares being sold are expected to be subject to a post-paid forward sale contract ("Contract") with a financial institution. At maturity the seller expects to deliver the number of shares described herein and receive a cash payment based on the VWAP of the Common Stock during a valuation period determined by the financial institution subject to an agreed maturity window. The seller expects to pledge the"
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1986938440856793425) 2025-11-07T23:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$GEO 🚨 BREAKING: Tom Homan just INFURIATED Zohran Mamdani and Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson by confirming illegal alien beds will nearly DOUBLE to [------] THOUSAND 🔥 https://t.co/zFviQ2Ypoi [------] beds turn over [--] times a year You got a MILLION deportations We will 🚨 BREAKING: Tom Homan just INFURIATED Zohran Mamdani and Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson by confirming illegal alien beds will nearly DOUBLE to [------] THOUSAND 🔥 https://t.co/zFviQ2Ypoi [------] beds turn over [--] times a year You got a MILLION deportations We will"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1987864844893081709) 2025-11-10T12:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"As of [--] days ago detention numbers were at 65k according to Homan. Thats just shy of a 9% increase since TRAC last published their data on Sept 21st despite the government shutdown. In the same time $GEO is down 30%. ICE is still ramping up in my opinion and hasn't yet started spending their new budget due to the shutdown and detention populations are still going vertical. At 65k they're basically at capacity so will likely be seeing more contracts signed soon with the shutdown now over. Shocked that both $CXW and $GEO back down here but seems nonsensical and expecting the businesses to"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1989067220471701945) 2025-11-13T20:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$GT Tepper added pretty heavy albeit a small position overall. Guessing this is a tariff play. I've been searching for companies with a lot of convexity to tariffs getting thrown out and GT had the largest tariff impact (as a percentage of market cap) out of anyone I could find. Annual tariff impact of $350M on a $2.16B market cap. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1989733495430668394 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1989733495430668394"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1989733495430668394) 2025-11-15T16:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Think Whirlpool is more domestic manufacturering focused. I saw that as a levered housing play from him but I have no idea. GT you may be right but tariffs on lower costs imports don't help much when you're suffering from tariffs yourself. Might be less than peers but they're suffering all the same. $350M a huge additional tax for their market cap and margins can't imagine they wouldn't respond well to them being taken off but you may be right that it would hurt them competitively"
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1989851717916131441) 2025-11-16T00:23Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"They rarely broke 30k arrests a month and have now broken 40k last month and on track to break 50k this month. ICE just got their tripled budget at the end of August that money is starting to be put to work. Market is giving up on the earnings inflection way too quickly. $GEO"
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1991901760512983351) 2025-11-21T16:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$GEO Similar EV as election day [----]. Compared with last November ICE's detention population is up 65% yoy and ICE monthly arrests are up 700% yoy. Lower EV now than when Biden was inaugurated in [----] despite a detention population number 450% higher (14k then compared to 65k now). More arrests in October and November [----] than the entirety of [----]. Business has never been better the real estate has never been more valuable (particularly after the rise in inflation) deleveraging is basically finished and management has pivoted to buybacks and the stock is still trading at a historically low"
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1992965623056372117) 2025-11-24T14:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Detention numbers were rising quickly even at much lower arrest rates the last few months. Some statements from management on the recent earnings call that deportations were being executed at around full capacity as well. I dont think deportation capacity is easily scalable either because its often not just the logistics but also the case and court proceedings that are difficult to scale. There's already over 3.4M cases in immigration court backlog. TRAC Immigration has some useful statistics on this. The average time in an ATD program as of last month was [-----] days. There is nothing fast"
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1993868208512610364) 2025-11-27T02:23Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$GEO Contract today highlights the focus on the non-detained docket. I think with the increase in no-shows to court that supervision programs on this population are increasingly likely. https://www.npr.org/2025/12/22/nx-s1-5583971/trump-ice-immigration-arrests-deportation-no-shows https://www.npr.org/2025/12/22/nx-s1-5583971/trump-ice-immigration-arrests-deportation-no-shows"
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/2003126902459142361) 2025-12-22T15:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Think its momentum more than anything. They're down considerably from the start of government shutdown and the ensuing data blackout. As the data has restarted we see that they weren't impacted numbers remain skyrocketing but they haven't recovered. Think these were crowded plays post election and the lack of an immediate earnings inflection led to a lot of continued selling and downward momentum that hasn't been broken yet. GEO also has the ATD segment which has so far been disappointing. With the rise in no shows to court and with ICE likely going to run out of detention capacity if these"
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/2003552727016550823) 2025-12-23T19:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@RodriGo_ethe The year of momentum"
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/2004615093653524750) 2025-12-26T18:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@taobanker Think today is due to the death of Congressman LaMalfa and how it changes the power in the House. Does it matter ICE funded until Sept [----] and LaMalfa's redraw district was likely flipping blue this year anyways so seems overblown to me. $GEO"
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/2008606847054516299) 2026-01-06T18:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$GEO $CXW "Lyons (acting director of ICE) wrote that the Trump administration's departments of Homeland Security and Justice had 'revised its legal position on detention and release authorities' and determined that such immigrants (any who crossed the border illegally) 'may not be released from ICE custody.'" Detention numbers are going to explode. With their goals of 3000+ arrests a day and detention levels already at records there's not enough detention capacity. Would think its likely they'll eventually have to incorporate ATD programs. Surprised the market doesn't seem to have responded"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1945134295414145359) 2025-07-15T14:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$GEO $CXW Finally new ICE data. Detention numbers sitting at all time highs and growing quickly arrests over the last two months smashing through all time highs by a significant margin and higher cost ankle monitoring continuing to be the priority while ATD numbers are relatively stable around 182k. With these arrest and detention numbers I continue to believe its a matter of time until all available bed capacity is met forcing greater ATD participation. Also still think theres a small chance supervision gets eventually broadened to the non-detained docket. The divergence between the share"
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1991890933739077809) 2025-11-21T15:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"New data out yesterday. [-----] in ICE detention on Dec 12th up from [-----] on November [--]. Still going vertical. $GEO $CXW"
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/2003540152237588498) 2025-12-23T18:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$GEO $CXW "Homan said the number of arrests will increase sharply as ICE hires more officers and expands detention capacity with the new funding. 'I think you're going to see the numbers explode greatly next year' Homan said. Homan said the plans absolutely include more enforcement actions at workplaces." https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-set-expand-immigration-crackdown-2026-despite-brewing-backlash-2025-12-21/ https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-set-expand-immigration-crackdown-2026-despite-brewing-backlash-2025-12-21/"
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/2004943235517501743) 2025-12-27T15:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$GEO $CXW Border Czar Homan said in his interview yesterday that they're arresting [----] people a day on average. https://youtu.be/FfNyXDupcDssi=nmUM2uNU6GZOQAyF https://youtu.be/FfNyXDupcDssi=nmUM2uNU6GZOQAyF"
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/2009293966986948618) 2026-01-08T15:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$GEO $CXW CBS reporting that the number as of yesterday is [-----]. Thats [----] added in a month still going vertical. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ices-detainee-population-record-high-of-73000/ New data out yesterday. [-----] in ICE detention on Dec 12th up from [-----] on November [--]. Still going vertical. $GEO $CXW https://t.co/DTunqK7K7A https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ices-detainee-population-record-high-of-73000/ New data out yesterday. [-----] in ICE detention on Dec 12th up from [-----] on November [--]. Still going vertical. $GEO $CXW https://t.co/DTunqK7K7A"
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/2012336031509500117) 2026-01-17T01:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$HNRG Trump has spoken. Data Centers need captive inside the fence power generation. The shortest term solution (with $GEV $SIEGY sold out on gas turbines) and nukes taking 6-10 years are things like $BE $FSLR $TE. Our note on $TE is below. $VST $TLN $NRG $CEG and more are all https://t.co/tOpLCZsWmb Trump has spoken. Data Centers need captive inside the fence power generation. The shortest term solution (with $GEV $SIEGY sold out on gas turbines) and nukes taking 6-10 years are things like $BE $FSLR $TE. Our note on $TE is below. $VST $TLN $NRG $CEG and more are all https://t.co/tOpLCZsWmb"
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/2010889078384812308) 2026-01-13T01:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$ELF on the subject of wasting marketing spend was a superbowl ad (and a bad one at that) a good use of capital for their target audience Between this and the full page NYT print ad who are they marketing to I exited last year but what a negative turn this has taken. Price increase was obviously not accepted as much as expected unit volume significantly negative. CEO took it defensively on the call when asked how they reaccelerate ELF growth thinks hes beyond reproach. Management won't even break out ELF / Rhode international anymore because ELF international has been significantly negative"
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/2020905505104015763) 2026-02-09T16:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"If this goes through DHS spends $380k per bed for retrofitted warehouses. Would be an incredible waste of money for a very subpar solution. They could buy GEO/CXW's turnkey facilities that are specifically designed for this for a fraction of the cost. Seems like the future of the businesses rests on them convincing DHS to buy their facilities. The plan should sell itself compared to the warehouse solution but if this doesn't happen GEO/CXW could be in for a world of pain as their biggest customer leaves them and strands their assets. On the other hand $380k a bed for retrofitted warehouses"
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/2022778015558598851) 2026-02-14T21:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$BUR I met with management a couple times recently and came away disappointed. Burford is not prioritizing the highest return with the incremental dollar. The priorities are first funding large high return cases then funding the less risky lower return opportunities. A buyback is something that would only happen with 'excess capital' after these lower return opportunities are exhausted. So they seemingly prioritize total portfolio asset growth over investing the incremental dollar in the highest return opportunity. I believe its a mistake to dilute the portfolio into lower return"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1806704446757306632) 2024-06-28T15:01Z [----] followers, 19.3K engagements
"My wife knows if anything were to ever happen to me give everything to @orrdavid. So many ways to make money in markets and me and David could not have more different styles. Given portfolio size and style I could never replicate his results I don't think anyone really can. He's had success through multiple market regimes while being so diversified and tilted short that I wouldn't have expected outperformance to be possible. A very atypical style that doesn't fit in any one box but the outlier returns to prove it works. John Hempton a very talented investor has an interesting take on my"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1948170931395785095) 2025-07-23T23:58Z [----] followers, 11.8K engagements
"John Hempton a very talented investor has an interesting take on my business partner @orrdavid who I believe is one of the best discretionary investors active today. John sees David as a poker player-turned-trader not an investor and is uncertain his edge will scale. I disagree. In fact Im more optimistic than David that his edge is scalable. Ive assessed many managers and Id say my hit rate is very good. Looking back Ive been right for the right reasons. David is the first hedge fund manager Ive ever invested in. I was a big day-one investor in his fund and Ive talked with him a lot so I"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1948145572730351798) 2025-07-23T22:17Z 11.3K followers, 72.8K engagements
"Insane to me how blatant antisemitism has seemingly been widely accepted. Mostly from the losers of the world or those hiding behind anonymity. Imagine being a supposed capitalist and thinking the Jews deserved the holocaust because we outperform in meritocratic capitalist systems. @TylerDurden"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1957200795012849816) 2025-08-17T22:00Z [----] followers, 10.6K engagements
"What an absolute clown. Spewing bullshit on things he doesn't understand and can't justify but sure call the Jew a nazi and block him instead of justifying yourself. Imagine giving this guy money. @bennpeifert"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1921762935677894812) 2025-05-12T03:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@puppyeh1 They should be driving their own rerating through a buyback taking advantage of the misunderstanding and undervaluation. Instead they're investing in lower return opportunities and see a buyback as a return of capital. It's a misallocation issue imo. https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1806704446757306632t=lUaM7khNTeCtIu3sdhg3_w&s=19 $BUR I met with management a couple times recently and came away disappointed. Burford is not prioritizing the highest return with the incremental dollar. The priorities are first funding large high return cases then funding the less risky lower return"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1813562452082360710) 2024-07-17T13:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$ELF management responds strongly: "Muddy Waters has made numerous inaccurate statements about e.l.f. Beauty and our business by relying upon incomplete data and flawed assumptions omitting critical context and presenting speculation as fact. In particular in early [----] for competitive reasons and as permitted by applicable regulations we filed a request for confidentiality withU.S.Customs and Border Protection with respect to our customs import data. Therefore import data available to the public after February [--] [----] does not include a substantial majority of our actualU.S.imports. Further"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1859574264745095672) 2024-11-21T12:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"MW is short $ELF. We believe it's overstating revenue profits inventory. 80% of its product is imported. Import data show [--] quarters ago ELFs imports crashed by 2/3 & havent recovered yet sales in the US have defied this trend. We see rev overstatement of $135mm-$190mm https://muddywatersresearch.com/research/elf/mw-is-short-elf/ https://muddywatersresearch.com/research/elf/mw-is-short-elf/"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1859273379145978200) 2024-11-20T16:31Z 247.2K followers, 218.3K engagements
"$GEO Founder and Executive Chairman with an additional 250k shares purchased. $GEO suffering from Trump odds reversing but seems overblown. Harris said yesterday at her rally that she'll be tough on the border and supports Bidens proposal that would have been very beneficial to GEO. She also released a new campaign ad that had media outlets calling her a $GEO suffering from Trump odds reversing but seems overblown. Harris said yesterday at her rally that she'll be tough on the border and supports Bidens proposal that would have been very beneficial to GEO. She also released a new campaign ad"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1823688793607553228) 2024-08-14T11:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$GEO suffering from Trump odds reversing but seems overblown. Harris said yesterday at her rally that she'll be tough on the border and supports Bidens proposal that would have been very beneficial to GEO. She also released a new campaign ad that had media outlets calling her a border hawk. Sure Trump would likely be much better but the share price doesn't belong here no matter who's next in the White House. Immigration and border security is becoming bipartisan. https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/09/harris-promises-to-go-tough-on-border-security-00173485"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1822290722503946637) 2024-08-10T15:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$AMR a company that understands capital allocation. Paraphrasing - "M&A Hard to do when we're valued around 2x. Our biggest focus is on buying more $AMR shares.""
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1628781477419708422) 2023-02-23T15:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Getting $FLR net of their $SMR stake for about $0 EV right now after accounting for recent proceeds offset with NOLs. This for a company with its own tailwinds that's actively monetizing their stake and using proceeds for buybacks. $FLR $605M in proceeds in less than [--] days and "intends to use a majority of the proceeds from this sale to enhance its ongoing share repurchase program." https://t.co/jSjqZqkRCY $FLR $605M in proceeds in less than [--] days and "intends to use a majority of the proceeds from this sale to enhance its ongoing share repurchase program." https://t.co/jSjqZqkRCY"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1977797786453065775) 2025-10-13T18:05Z [----] followers, 10.1K engagements
"$FLR $605M in proceeds in less than [--] days and "intends to use a majority of the proceeds from this sale to enhance its ongoing share repurchase program.""
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1976382629319717050) 2025-10-09T20:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$FLR was trading at an EV of $5.5B (excluding their Nuscale stake) at the end of [----] when $SMR was trading around [--] dollars a share. SMR share price has more than 10xed since then with FLR's stake now worth $5B yet FLR hasn't gotten any credit for this and is still at an EV of $5.5B (excluding SMR) despite being more deleveraged and generally in a better place with own their businesses compared to [----]. FLR wants to cut their SMR stake in half and just converted 15M shares that ended their lock-up period last week. I'm hopeful that they monetize this quickly and proceeds go to buybacks as"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1967568924691550713) 2025-09-15T12:39Z [----] followers, 12.7K engagements
"As of [--] days ago detention numbers were at 65k according to Homan. Thats just shy of a 9% increase since TRAC last published their data on Sept 21st despite the government shutdown. In the same time $GEO is down 30%. ICE is still ramping up in my opinion and hasn't yet started spending their new budget due to the shutdown and detention populations are still going vertical. At 65k they're basically at capacity so will likely be seeing more contracts signed soon with the shutdown now over. Shocked that both $CXW and $GEO back down here but seems nonsensical and expecting the businesses to"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1989067220471701945) 2025-11-13T20:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$GEO 🚨 BREAKING: Tom Homan just INFURIATED Zohran Mamdani and Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson by confirming illegal alien beds will nearly DOUBLE to [------] THOUSAND 🔥 https://t.co/zFviQ2Ypoi [------] beds turn over [--] times a year You got a MILLION deportations We will 🚨 BREAKING: Tom Homan just INFURIATED Zohran Mamdani and Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson by confirming illegal alien beds will nearly DOUBLE to [------] THOUSAND 🔥 https://t.co/zFviQ2Ypoi [------] beds turn over [--] times a year You got a MILLION deportations We will"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1987864844893081709) 2025-11-10T12:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$GEO back to election day levels despite an evolution fundamentally that bulls could have only wished for. Arrests and detention numbers at all-time highs ICE officers rising 50% ATD prioritizing higher cost ankle monitoring ICE budget is tripling. The administration is filled with former GEO employees and lobbyists from the border czar Tom Homan to the AG Pam Bondi. Thanks to their recent state prison sale they've even delevered and introduced a buyback sooner than I expected. Despite all this the market doesn't seem to appreciate the uncertainty and lack of current earnings inflection. With"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1955270967963406381) 2025-08-12T14:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Republicans sweep up to 97%. Although I expect this to be volatile this isn't a short-term trade imo. With a sweep Trump has his mandate which includes locking down the border and mass deportations. $GEO will likely have a large earnings inflection which should allow them to hit their leverage target and pivot to buybacks expeditiously. Republicans sweep up to 47% on polymarket. No one owns enough $GEO in that scenario. Republicans sweep up to 47% on polymarket. No one owns enough $GEO in that scenario"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1854152318700154995) 2024-11-06T13:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"I had a great time attending and presenting at ValueX Vail. Great experience with an incredible group of people. I presented on the opportunity in coal and the transformation of Consol Energy $CEIX I look forward to attending again in the future"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1805263992987803734) 2024-06-24T15:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$CEIX could outperform all the coal companies over the next couple decades imo. Looking at the supply demand forecasts of seaborne high cv thermal compared to met high cv looks much more constructive particularly 5-10+ years out. I think this wider supply/demand gap results in less cyclicality and higher prices. I expect high cv thermal prices will command a price closer to met prices than in the past with spikes above to encourage crossover met when it's needed. If this happens Consol could have structurally much higher margins than the met companies and they're perfectly positioned to"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1822989839223926925) 2024-08-12T13:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Jimmy Brock is a national treasure $CEIX"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1707447421792330135) 2023-09-28T17:29Z [----] followers, 50.8K engagements
"Impressive results from $CEIX. Cash machine executing operationally. Very happy to see them up shareholder returns to 75% of FCF with a focus on buybacks. No reason for dividends at this FCF yield. Bought back 3.5% of float this Q at $55.60 should accelerate the rest of the year"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1653354287429214208) 2023-05-02T11:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$CEIX $CEIX could outperform all the coal companies over the next couple decades imo. Looking at the supply demand forecasts of seaborne high cv thermal compared to met high cv looks much more constructive particularly 5-10+ years out. I think this wider supply/demand gap results in $CEIX could outperform all the coal companies over the next couple decades imo. Looking at the supply demand forecasts of seaborne high cv thermal compared to met high cv looks much more constructive particularly 5-10+ years out. I think this wider supply/demand gap results in"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1826230862016639106) 2024-08-21T12:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Chart crime but it's beautiful. Happy to see them getting rid of the dividend at the end of the year to focus entirely on buybacks. Basic weighted average sharecount was [--------] for the quarter. End of July down to [--------]. Incredible. $AMR"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1687438376058720256) 2023-08-04T12:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The monsters we're up against. Good vs evil. Right before committing this mornings Stabbing Attack in the Northern Israeli City of Hadera the Terrorist who was armed with an Axe and a Knife attempted to enter a Kindergarten which was thankfully Locked. https://t.co/8oPO1bRVPi Right before committing this mornings Stabbing Attack in the Northern Israeli City of Hadera the Terrorist who was armed with an Axe and a Knife attempted to enter a Kindergarten which was thankfully Locked. https://t.co/8oPO1bRVPi"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1844100265722642474) 2024-10-09T19:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Right before committing this mornings Stabbing Attack in the Northern Israeli City of Hadera the Terrorist who was armed with an Axe and a Knife attempted to enter a Kindergarten which was thankfully Locked"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1844090820619796998) 2024-10-09T19:01Z 1.9M followers, 250.4K engagements
"David's been an absolute market killer through numerous regimes. @John_Hempton Just me and the combined. One of my best weeks ever. https://t.co/naMijKf7WX @John_Hempton Just me and the combined. One of my best weeks ever. https://t.co/naMijKf7WX"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1900890058913104043) 2025-03-15T12:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@John_Hempton Just me and the combined. One of my best weeks ever"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1900792180442345634) 2025-03-15T06:12Z 31.3K followers, [----] engagements
"@jimcramer @agnostoxxx we got him all systems go"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1640464797786337280) 2023-03-27T21:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$GEO $CXW "Lyons (acting director of ICE) wrote that the Trump administration's departments of Homeland Security and Justice had 'revised its legal position on detention and release authorities' and determined that such immigrants (any who crossed the border illegally) 'may not be released from ICE custody.'" Detention numbers are going to explode. With their goals of 3000+ arrests a day and detention levels already at records there's not enough detention capacity. Would think its likely they'll eventually have to incorporate ATD programs. Surprised the market doesn't seem to have responded"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1945134295414145359) 2025-07-15T14:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Happy to discuss. Agree with you that most market makers are quants trying their best with their models and algorithms to do this at scale. That's the opportunity. The variables they take into consideration at scale (most importantly historical/implied vol) not being the ones that really matter for the stock/situation over the life of the long-term term option. Vast majority of option volume is short-term and those are priced pretty efficiently so they don't really worry about the long-term inefficiencies. These models assume a normal distribution of outcomes as well. Sometimes you can find"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1759931271793254500) 2024-02-20T13:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@bennpeifert 🤡"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1921760290426798236) 2025-05-12T02:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"It's a ridiculous argument. Companies buybacks are only effective if the stock is above the buyback price That's a very very short term view. These shares don't return and the buyback was a big part of the story of why they're going for a higher multiple than peers. What would you prefer they spend it on another Itmann or M&A Hasn't been value accretive for companies that have done either. Despite transforming the business and taking away most of the risk they're at a similar enterprise value to when they spun off a decade ago despite the changes in the industry. How do you think that's not a"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1755953510103838946) 2024-02-09T13:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Thanks for having me again Can't recommend idea brunch enough. @IdeaBrunchEmail @StockJabber New Idea Brunch with Ryan Rahinsky @blueoutliercap We discuss his strong first year revisit his good call on $CEIX (up 80% since last year) and hear some of his new top ideas Enjoy https://t.co/13ZA77HRSG New Idea Brunch with Ryan Rahinsky @blueoutliercap We discuss his strong first year revisit his good call on $CEIX (up 80% since last year) and hear some of his new top ideas Enjoy https://t.co/13ZA77HRSG"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1744063308846473497) 2024-01-07T18:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"New Idea Brunch with Ryan Rahinsky @blueoutliercap We discuss his strong first year revisit his good call on $CEIX (up 80% since last year) and hear some of his new top ideas Enjoy https://www.readideabrunch.com/p/idea-brunch-2-with-ryan-rahinsky https://www.readideabrunch.com/p/idea-brunch-2-with-ryan-rahinsky"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1744062134902755678) 2024-01-07T18:23Z [----] followers, 15.5K engagements
"@resetbasis Dude loves to talk shit about things he doesnt understand. https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1921762935677894812t=ra5lUanofMgyCbMZAyyb_Q&s=19 What an absolute clown. Spewing bullshit on things he doesn't understand and can't justify but sure call the Jew a nazi and block him instead of justifying yourself. Imagine giving this guy money. @bennpeifert https://t.co/I4xhOBRap7 https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1921762935677894812t=ra5lUanofMgyCbMZAyyb_Q&s=19 What an absolute clown. Spewing bullshit on things he doesn't understand and can't justify but sure call the Jew a nazi and"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1957480654775505249) 2025-08-18T16:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Drawdown in $CEIX is easier to handle now knowing they're throwing 75% of FCF into buybacks. $AMR similar story. Keep selling them"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1663555270138818565) 2023-05-30T14:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$GEO $CXW Harris says she supports Bidens border bill and would sign it. Takes the severe downside case out of the prison companies this is likely as bad as it gets for them no matter who wins. Border security has become bipartisan"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1829327911079354758) 2024-08-30T01:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Bit opposite for me. I was warned not to take this route that there's a path (through IB and then buyside) that you take and that very few independent start from nothing funds make it. All that is absolutely right and I appreciated the candor. If you can be talked out of starting a fund you shouldn't start one to begin with. You need conviction and confidence in your abilities enough to disregard all this and the statistics around the likely failure and go for it. If you already have doubts before starting you likely don't have the conviction to see it through. You dont need to be old to be"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1862515175208661473) 2024-11-29T15:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"You dont need to be old to be right. The most motivational thing ever told to me. I was [--] at the time. These were the words of Richard Rainwater an important unofficial mentor of mine. I pass the words down to the next generation who can help save us all"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1862509098954092704) 2024-11-29T14:49Z 2M followers, 734.5K engagements
"$ELF quarter is indefensible. Current management not the ones to fix it. Seemingly thinking they're still in growth mode with SG&A exploding with little growth to show for it. Guidance was atrocious for their core ELF brand they should be accelerating international rollout and cutting back on marketing in the US where they're already well known and established if the brand is mature domestically. No real evidence the price hike went to the bottom line but seems like some pricing was slow to kick in so maybe this is a bit delayed. Guidance for ELF under price hike seems to suggest there's some"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1986466399460442335) 2025-11-06T16:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Too early to say but any extended closure will undoubtedly impact $CEIX. Between Consol and CSX's Curtis Bay about 25% of the nation's coal exports depart from Baltimore. AT LEAST [--] COMMERCIAL SHIPS HEADED TO US BALTIMORE PORT DROP ANCHOR IN WATERS NEARBY - SHIP TRACKING DATA AT LEAST [--] COMMERCIAL SHIPS HEADED TO US BALTIMORE PORT DROP ANCHOR IN WATERS NEARBY - SHIP TRACKING DATA"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1772595938218868924) 2024-03-26T12:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"AT LEAST [--] COMMERCIAL SHIPS HEADED TO US BALTIMORE PORT DROP ANCHOR IN WATERS NEARBY - SHIP TRACKING DATA"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1772582211440517192) 2024-03-26T11:11Z 436.4K followers, 20.6K engagements
"$FLR has now sold 14.1M shares of $SMR for proceeds of $560M in about [--] weeks. 900k shares more to sell in this 15M tranche and then hopefully a new conversion and sell program is announced soon. 111M more shares able to be converted and sold although only expecting them to sell another 50M or so to reach their target of 20-25% ownership. Huge cash inflows for their EV. $FLR was trading at an EV of $5.5B (excluding their Nuscale stake) at the end of [----] when $SMR was trading around [--] dollars a share. SMR share price has more than 10xed since then with FLR's stake now worth $5B yet FLR hasn't"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1975328895118590171) 2025-10-06T22:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$GT Tepper added pretty heavy albeit a small position overall. Guessing this is a tariff play. I've been searching for companies with a lot of convexity to tariffs getting thrown out and GT had the largest tariff impact (as a percentage of market cap) out of anyone I could find. Annual tariff impact of $350M on a $2.16B market cap. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1989733495430668394 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1989733495430668394"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1989733495430668394) 2025-11-15T16:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$GEO The bull case highlighted from quotes from the earnings call yesterday. I think to speak in generalities; were looking at a theoretical potential doubling of all of our services whether its in the detention segment in the transportation segment as well as the ISAP program. (The previous version of the House Homeland Security Appropriations Bill) would have also required the use of electronic GPS monitoring for all individuals in the non-detained docket (of illegal immigrants awaiting court proceedings) which is currently estimated to be more than [--] million people. (current participant"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1854897171344015632) 2024-11-08T14:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"+2500% in [--] years and blowing peers with other capital allocation priorities out of the water I'd still say the strategy worked. Huge net cash position waiting for steel/met coal markets to turn and when they finally do I bet they outperform on the upside too. If people started a position at [---] that's just showing up late to the game"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1877022115926331686) 2025-01-08T15:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Fingers crossed Consol rejects this US coal miner Arch Resources is nearing a deal to merge with rival Consol Energy to create a $5 billion company people familiar say https://t.co/UDD0Z26wGn US coal miner Arch Resources is nearing a deal to merge with rival Consol Energy to create a $5 billion company people familiar say https://t.co/UDD0Z26wGn"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1826087148983828549) 2024-08-21T02:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"US coal miner Arch Resources is nearing a deal to merge with rival Consol Energy to create a $5 billion company people familiar say https://trib.al/OX6dKmB https://trib.al/OX6dKmB"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1826082409445552200) 2024-08-21T02:22Z 2M followers, 12.5K engagements
"$ELF This being sold on guidance is an opportunity. "Our approach on guidance I should mention is a pretty conservative approach. If you look back over five and a half years we usually take a very balanced view one quarter at a time. For example last year I think our initial guidance was something like 22-24% growth and we delivered 71% growth." Early innings of geographic expansion where they're often debuting as the #1 brand. Long runway of growth ahead. Elf Beauty getting hit today despite a beat and a raise. CEO Tarang Amin says the company takes a cautious approach to guidance but he's"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1823078491539091615) 2024-08-12T19:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Elf Beauty getting hit today despite a beat and a raise. CEO Tarang Amin says the company takes a cautious approach to guidance but he's "highly confident of the growth prospects ahead of us" #beauty #earnings $ELF @elfcosmetics"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1822019884097618104) 2024-08-09T21:19Z 68K followers, [----] engagements
"This is what happens when you demonize an entire population. Spread lies and call Jews nazis like the POS @bennpeifert or other useful idiots and you encourage disturbed people to commit heinous acts thinking they're heros. We are shocked and horrified this morning by the news of the brutal terrorist attack that claimed the lives of two of our Embassy staff members in Washington Yaron Lischinsky and Sarah Lynn Milgrim. May their memory be a blessing. We embrace the grieving families during this https://t.co/4lNQnTvORG We are shocked and horrified this morning by the news of the brutal"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1925514638948491307) 2025-05-22T11:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"We are shocked and horrified this morning by the news of the brutal terrorist attack that claimed the lives of two of our Embassy staff members in Washington Yaron Lischinsky and Sarah Lynn Milgrim. May their memory be a blessing. We embrace the grieving families during this painful time and will continue to support them always. Israeli diplomats and representatives around the world stand on the frontlines of Israels diplomatic efforts defending the country with their very lives. We will not be deterred by terror. We will continue our mission across the globe with unwavering commitment to"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1925459503811625450) 2025-05-22T07:51Z 1.9M followers, 879.9K engagements
"$NAPA good things have a tendency of happening to cheap assets"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1843253587969036653) 2024-10-07T11:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$HNRG Could the US coal industry make a comeback The power source may be finding a second wind amid swelling demand for electricity https://t.co/AfFOTQXtQp Could the US coal industry make a comeback The power source may be finding a second wind amid swelling demand for electricity https://t.co/AfFOTQXtQp"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1920628847625584702) 2025-05-08T23:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Could the US coal industry make a comeback The power source may be finding a second wind amid swelling demand for electricity https://www.ft.com/content/445a8546-f3f5-4465-9bc1-7ebb9fd7bb41 https://www.ft.com/content/445a8546-f3f5-4465-9bc1-7ebb9fd7bb41"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1920551378260234341) 2025-05-08T18:48Z 106K followers, [----] engagements
"Showing again why they're best in the business $CEIX Jimmy Brock is a national treasure $CEIX https://t.co/I82Crqw9Rz Jimmy Brock is a national treasure $CEIX https://t.co/I82Crqw9Rz"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1821538694701920693) 2024-08-08T13:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Republicans are supposed to be the party of free markets capitalism low taxes small government and deregulation. These tariffs are the exact opposite of all of this. Huge government overreach into private markets a tax on consumption enacted without Congress a higher regulatory burden and growth of government. I think its becoming more likely that Republicans eventually move against this plan. The pain threshold for Congress is likely lower than Trumps. Republicans were finally seeing momentum on their side and have been appealing to a younger generation. Now instead of the reciprocal tariffs"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1909234603585380495) 2025-04-07T13:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Selected important quotes from $CXW call. A lot more detail on the call. At an inflection point and upside not appreciated by the market. "if you look at our staffing levels today and again they're elevated within our ICE facilities for this potential demand if you look at our midpoint as we just announced here in the last [--] hours for our guidance I think you could add probably another 10% on top of that if we were able to recalibrate our staffing based on actual population levels. So it's a different way. Probably about $0.12 $0.14 probably to keep me honest here Dave is what you could add"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1654259318424846336) 2023-05-04T22:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$GEO what stands out to me"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1754312609308770681) 2024-02-05T01:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Says the woman who dated and slept with a married power broker more than twice her age (29 & 60) in return for favor (including a BMW). She's been attracted to power like a moth to a flame her whole life. We know who Donald Trump is. He will stop at nothing to claim power for himself. We know who Donald Trump is. He will stop at nothing to claim power for himself"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1846260567838793959) 2024-10-15T18:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"We know who Donald Trump is. He will stop at nothing to claim power for himself"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1846210429984325968) 2024-10-15T15:24Z 20.9M followers, 5.3M engagements
"This is what the WH is posting and you're not long $GEO 🚁🚁🚁 https://t.co/6LSUCBcDQK 🚁🚁🚁 https://t.co/6LSUCBcDQK"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1964360537115947077) 2025-09-06T16:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"This x1000. The whole industry is 'cheap' you pay for the management and capital allocation and $AMR continues to seperate itself from the pack along these lines. $CEIX as well on the high-quality thermal side. @ardaarkun That is hazardous to your heath. The $AMR mgmt team is so much better than the other [--]. When in doubt don't over think it. @mfwarder @dyer440 @aggresivevalue @ardaarkun That is hazardous to your heath. The $AMR mgmt team is so much better than the other [--]. When in doubt don't over think it. @mfwarder @dyer440 @aggresivevalue"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1762160709968756923) 2024-02-26T17:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@ardaarkun That is hazardous to your heath. The $AMR mgmt team is so much better than the other [--]. When in doubt don't over think it. @mfwarder @dyer440 @aggresivevalue"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1762157657987678531) 2024-02-26T16:48Z 52K followers, [----] engagements
"@dyer440 CEIX can likely pivot tons to export without an issue. Could even benefit from this and realize higher prices than what they would have should this happen. Lot of their domestic contracts take or pay too"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1695887543592509698) 2023-08-27T19:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Sent a similar note to LPs last night but the satellite data is very interesting and something I missed. $HNRG Hallador Energy: Recent Filing To MISO Indicates A Datacenter Deal Is Imminent https://seekingalpha.com/article/4766240-hallador-energy-recent-filing-to-miso-indicates-a-datacenter-deal-is-imminentsource=Twitter https://seekingalpha.com/article/4766240-hallador-energy-recent-filing-to-miso-indicates-a-datacenter-deal-is-imminentsource=Twitter"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1900199243010159088) 2025-03-13T14:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Agreed $HNRG I've got pretty high conviction that this power trade is inning 2-3 vs played out. Power has never been a meaningful bottleneck for compute. Now it is as essential of an ingredient as chip innovations. This is what I was carrying prior to liquidation: VST CCJ VG EQT BE VRT EQT I've got pretty high conviction that this power trade is inning 2-3 vs played out. Power has never been a meaningful bottleneck for compute. Now it is as essential of an ingredient as chip innovations. This is what I was carrying prior to liquidation: VST CCJ VG EQT BE VRT EQT"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1929945953169006702) 2025-06-03T16:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"We'll see soon but if we go with a reciprocal tariff regime I think the most likely eventual off ramp is tariffs / trade barriers on US goods being reduced globally. We're the largest consumer economy in the world and the largest importer. Other countries have much more to lose than to gain with escalating tariffs against us. If one country does this and has their tariffs slashed to [--] they're now more competitive compared to competing countries still with tariffs. You could see a race to the bottom and slashing of trade restrictions and tariffs globally. If we don't go with reciprocal and"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1907430726405935391) 2025-04-02T13:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"CANADA WILLING TO REMOVE TARIFFS IF US DOES: ONTARIO'S FORD"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1907416511171485701) 2025-04-02T12:55Z 436.4K followers, 42.9K engagements
"$HNRG "If the Company is successful in executing definitive agreements and once the transaction commences it is expected to contract the majority of the Companys energy and capacity at prices higher than the forward curve for more than a decade." https://halladorenergy.com/news-events/news/news-details/2025/Hallador-Energy-Signs-Exclusive-Commitment-Agreement-with-Global-Data-Center-Developer/default.aspx https://halladorenergy.com/news-events/news/news-details/2025/Hallador-Energy-Signs-Exclusive-Commitment-Agreement-with-Global-Data-Center-Developer/default.aspx"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1876637002889834598) 2025-01-07T14:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"If $ELF doesn't capitalize on their international success by ramping up their expansion I think its possible someone else could do it for them. A global competitor who they've been eating market share from could acquire the company and use their infrastructure to quickly expand globally. Would provide a long growth runway to the legacy acquirer at an attractive valuation and take out a competitor that's been eating into your business domestically before they do too much damage internationally. $ELF No new country expansion announcements in two quarters now. The fact they have growth slowing"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1887906611974279288) 2025-02-07T16:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$ELF No new country expansion announcements in two quarters now. The fact they have growth slowing in existing markets and aren't pushing international more with the pent-up demand and success they've seen in new geographies is inexcusable. Makes no sense not to accelerate this expansion if legacy channels are maturing. International is the incremental growth driver and its a big question mark that needs to be better communicated. If they announced a couple new countries on the call I'd have much more confidence in growth over the next year and there would likely be a different market"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1887649136645722500) 2025-02-06T23:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"This. Doesn't take too much if you bootstrap the launch and are diligent about keeping costs low. Results bring attention. Focus more on returns and less on raising and things fall in place"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1751729383260176685) 2024-01-28T22:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"This double standard in how to respond only applies when Jews are killed and are the ones responding. I don't recall outrage for the West and speaking of innocents when we bombed Europe in WW2. We killed hundreds of thousands of civilians in Japan to avoid a costly incursion that would cost more US lives. We've indiscriminately bombed countless places since. No only when Jews are killed is the response unacceptable. "How Israel does this matters" US Secretary of State Antony Blinken says Israel "has the right indeed the obligation" to defend itself but adds that "democracies distinguish"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1712448375579095060) 2023-10-12T12:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
""How Israel does this matters" US Secretary of State Antony Blinken says Israel "has the right indeed the obligation" to defend itself but adds that "democracies distinguish ourselves from terrorists by striving for a different standard" https://trib.al/iqPYRVN https://trib.al/iqPYRVN"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1712435392878633153) 2023-10-12T11:49Z 2M followers, 24.2K engagements
"70% Republicans sweep up to 47% on polymarket. No one owns enough $GEO in that scenario. Republicans sweep up to 47% on polymarket. No one owns enough $GEO in that scenario"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1853987503885160600) 2024-11-06T02:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Republicans sweep up to 47% on polymarket. No one owns enough $GEO in that scenario"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1849446179546771519) 2024-10-24T13:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Agree but I would add that the market wizards interviews with Jamie Mai and John Bender were much more helpful and eye-opening to me. A book can make you money. "You Can Be A stock Market Genius" by Joel Greenblatt for example. The chapter on LEAPs alone is priceless. and you can get it for $2.99 on kindle. WTF A book can make you money. "You Can Be A stock Market Genius" by Joel Greenblatt for example. The chapter on LEAPs alone is priceless. and you can get it for $2.99 on kindle. WTF"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1841842201443115397) 2024-10-03T14:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"A book can make you money. "You Can Be A stock Market Genius" by Joel Greenblatt for example. The chapter on LEAPs alone is priceless. and you can get it for $2.99 on kindle. WTF Scroll less read more. But *what* to read Learn to gain an edge with Alix soon 👇 Scroll less read more. But *what* to read Learn to gain an edge with Alix soon 👇"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1841836609492144596) 2024-10-03T13:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@EnergyCredit1 @WTIBull $CEIX just now plowing FCF into buybacks should make that list too as much as I wanted them to previously. No hate from me for $AMR buybacks though they can just continue to carpet bomb shares with their FCF. And credit to BTU management That's tough let's see how it goes"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1663978402578137088) 2023-05-31T18:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$ELF High margin high growth business with a long growth runway going for a reasonable valuation. Theyre an asset light company similar in business model to Coke. Theyve been taking a patient approach with their international expansion which seems to have been the correct strategy judging by their success in entering new markets in a dominant position. Only in a handful of countries right now with another few planned they have a long international growth runway ahead. They dont want to grow so fast that their existing partners suffer but should growth in their existing markets slow theyll"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1834227155938484569) 2024-09-12T13:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Largely agree but the sell off doesn't surprise me. Wasn't long ago this crashed into single digits from deepseek fears always been an extremely volatile name and now a bit more uncertain. Negotiations on a deal and discussions on an extension to the exclusivity agreement are still ongoing so I dont think this is a setback in negotiations as much as their counterparty knowing they wont close in time and not wanting to pay the $2M coming due. It makes the timeline of a deal more uncertain but allows them to engage third parties that they received unsolicited offers from sooner. Im sure they"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1925902721082601784) 2025-05-23T13:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"This news on $HNRG is a nothing burger imo and I expect the Co to announce a new exclusivity over the coming weeks. I believe this to be the case based on the following: 1) During its Q1 earnings call just last week mgmt stated that the counterparty is the one who requested an exclusivity extension. This obviously indicates the counterparty very much wants to get a deal done 2) The counterparty would have had to make a $2m payment to HNRG at the beginning of June under the current agreement. My guess is the counterparty knew it wasn't going to get to the finish line and decided to terminate"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1925693367800766960) 2025-05-22T23:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$AMR committed to buybacks and likely bought back 25%+ of MC this year. 15% owned by insiders another 75ish by institutions. Likely to keep buybacks at similar level over the next year where are the shares going to come from Could be an interesting squeeze next few yrs"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1608923040154550272) 2022-12-30T20:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Starboard's presentation from today. $FLR starts on slide [--]. Seem to be supporting a spin off of the $SMR stake. 2025_Active-Passive_Investor_Summit_-_Starboard_Value_LP.pdf https://share.google/TkqLYxsMc4TErEHIB https://share.google/TkqLYxsMc4TErEHIB"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1980709694218838184) 2025-10-21T18:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$GEO ICE moves to shackle some [------] immigrants with GPS ankle monitors https://www.washingtonpost.com/immigration/2025/07/24/ice-check-in-ankle-monitor-immigrants/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/immigration/2025/07/24/ice-check-in-ankle-monitor-immigrants/"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1948346551329305065) 2025-07-24T11:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Eating market share. Tracked US sales still growing 18% while competitors bleed. I think a doubling of US sales over the next 4-5 years is possible but the growth story from here is international. Early days. Just had their largest retail launch ever in [----] stores in Germany this month the success of that is more important to me than their US sales growth this quarter and should put them comfortably over their guidance. They've been taking a measured approach in their international expansion but should overall growth slow I think we see that accelerate. $ELF $ELF It's still too early to buy"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1840849567426007438) 2024-09-30T20:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$ELF It's still too early to buy the pullback according to Morgan Stanley. ELF has lost 43% during the past [--] months. "We're getting closer but we don't see enough visibility to turn positive yet." PT lowered to $139 from $184"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1840831390885060837) 2024-09-30T19:09Z 19.5K followers, [----] engagements
"$CEIX Power Plant Payouts on Biggest US Grid to Rise to Record (Bloomberg) - Auction will help shape electric mix for big part of US - PJM grid spans [--] states from Illinois to New Jersey $VST $CEG https://t.co/aAVViGUZsr Power Plant Payouts on Biggest US Grid to Rise to Record (Bloomberg) - Auction will help shape electric mix for big part of US - PJM grid spans [--] states from Illinois to New Jersey $VST $CEG https://t.co/aAVViGUZsr"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1818417031034577236) 2024-07-30T22:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Power Plant Payouts on Biggest US Grid to Rise to Record (Bloomberg) - Auction will help shape electric mix for big part of US - PJM grid spans [--] states from Illinois to New Jersey $VST $CEG"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1818383015514718259) 2024-07-30T20:27Z 92.3K followers, 16.8K engagements
"Big tech seemingly dependent on the monetization of ai to justify their valuations. Earnings Season to Test Investors Faith in Big Tech Stocks https://www.wsj.com/articles/earnings-season-to-test-investors-faith-in-big-tech-stocks-a16dc89e https://www.wsj.com/articles/earnings-season-to-test-investors-faith-in-big-tech-stocks-a16dc89e"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1809928680820322753) 2024-07-07T12:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$FLR $SMR big news https://www.nuscalepower.com/press-releases/2025/fluor-and-nuscale-announce-agreement-regarding-stake-monetization https://www.nuscalepower.com/press-releases/2025/fluor-and-nuscale-announce-agreement-regarding-stake-monetization"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1986556332829495424) 2025-11-06T22:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Market coming around to a deal being a 'when' more than an 'if' $HNRG Sent a similar note to LPs last night but the satellite data is very interesting and something I missed. $HNRG Hallador Energy: Recent Filing To MISO Indicates A Datacenter Deal Is Imminent https://t.co/S2PLKCn6F9 Sent a similar note to LPs last night but the satellite data is very interesting and something I missed. $HNRG Hallador Energy: Recent Filing To MISO Indicates A Datacenter Deal Is Imminent https://t.co/S2PLKCn6F9"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1922301438228615221) 2025-05-13T14:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@dyer440 Thanks Mohnish"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1690087904704352256) 2023-08-11T19:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@blueoutliercap Ryan Rahinsky
Ryan Rahinsky posts on X about $geo, geo, $elf, in the the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Engagements: [------] #
- [--] Week [-----] +133%
- [--] Month [------] +23%
- [--] Months [----------] -53%
- [--] Year [----------] +274%
Mentions: [--] #
- [--] Week [--] +50%
- [--] Month [--] -18%
- [--] Months [--] +19%
- [--] Year [--] +15%
Followers: [-----] #
- [--] Week [-----] no change
- [--] Month [-----] +0.15%
- [--] Months [-----] +13%
- [--] Year [-----] +21%
CreatorRank: [---------] #
Social Influence
Social category influence finance cryptocurrencies stocks countries automotive brands us election social networks technology brands
Social topic influence $geo, geo, $elf, in the, $ceix, $cxw, market, share, $flr, to the
Top assets mentioned The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO) aelf (ELF) CONSOL Energy Inc. (CEIX) CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) Flare (FLR) NuScale Power Corporation (SMR) Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (AMR) Morgan Stanley (MS) Cornerstone Building Brands, Inc. (CNR) Iris Energy Limited (IREN) Vistra, Corp. (VST) Constellation Energy Corp (CEG) CSX Corporation (CSX) Archway (ARCH)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"$CSX on JPM presentation March 15th - "we've had some good weeks in metals in fact couple weeks ago week [--] was our best week in metals since [----] so almost a decade high in metals shipments". Also said coal is strong particularly export. $NUE $AMR $ARCH"
X Link 2023-03-25T20:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"In stark contrast to $UNP $CSX is executing for their coal partners. Impressive quarter from CSX"
X Link 2023-04-20T20:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Still in $CXW smaller $GEO. Daily crossings/apprehensions still 30-40% above prepandemic levels. With mass parole under an injunction and likely to get struck down permanently populations at ICE facilities should continue to trend upwards. If not margin expansion anyways from"
X Link 2023-05-31T13:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Read the complaint. Good chance this is accepted thus forcing ICE/CBP to hold those detained until their court date or deportation. This would have drastic effects on population levels that are already rising. Market hasn't reacted or processed this seemingly. $CXW $GEO"
X Link 2023-06-05T14:19Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Average hourly earnings +4.7% yoy disproportionately fueled by lower earners. Q1 consumer spending at +4.2% yoy. Core CPI still at +4.8%. Still way too much wage inflation in the bottom half of earners fueling consumer spending and leading to stubborn core inflation"
X Link 2023-07-12T18:17Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@MBjegovic @tecken_tan @therealdrmax @jessefelder @VincentDeluard Prices can only rise so far unless wages are riding in tandem. That is the wage price spiral. Prices rising but wages rising in response supporting demand at yet higher prices and on the spiral goes. Again more workers would reduce the need to raise wages and would lower"
X Link 2023-07-22T18:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"This is factually incorrect 1) When exactly did we have a lower UR with comparable levels of participation When have we ever had comparable levels of either and been successful on reducing inflation in a high inflation regime It's too low because of the wage growth we're seeing leading to increased spending and inflation. In the 70s UR was much higher and needed to be driven to double digits to kill the wage price spiral. We also benefitted from companies outsourcing production overseas changing the supply demand dynamic of labor. The same bottom of the distribution disproportionately"
X Link 2023-07-22T18:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@MBjegovic @tecken_tan @therealdrmax @jessefelder @VincentDeluard I'm done refuting you. You remain incorrect on many things. We'll let the next few years play out and come back to this. From what I've seen so far I bet you were a believer in transitory inflation that was never a problem. You have a fundamental misunderstanding of inflation"
X Link 2023-07-22T19:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@DumbAlphaa @the_red_deer My question in this situation is what's the best case scenario for them That the hedges pay off If this quarters move in rates holds shouldn't this be a big positive quarter from a hedging perspective @DumbAlphaa @the_red_deer"
X Link 2023-08-22T14:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@DumbAlphaa @the_red_deer not the hedges themselves that are paying off but gains from MRBs more than offsetting the hedge losses. This interest rate move holds through the quarter and they should continue to benefit. Is this best case scenario for their situation"
X Link 2023-08-22T14:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Jimmy Brock is a national treasure $CEIX"
X Link 2023-09-28T17:29Z [----] followers, 50.8K engagements
"Failed foreign policy on every front from the Middle East and Russia to Venezuela. COLUMN: Follow the oil money to stop Iran-backed militia attacks. "My back-of-the-envelope arithmetic suggests Iran pocketed the non-trivial sum of more than $10 billion last year thanks to its higher oil output." #OOTT #Iran #RedSea #Yemen @Opinion https://t.co/zl9ysexNS5 COLUMN: Follow the oil money to stop Iran-backed militia attacks. "My back-of-the-envelope arithmetic suggests Iran pocketed the non-trivial sum of more than $10 billion last year thanks to its higher oil output." #OOTT #Iran #RedSea #Yemen"
X Link 2024-01-30T13:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Will be interesting to see details $GEO"
X Link 2024-02-04T19:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$GEO what stands out to me"
X Link 2024-02-05T01:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"If you're right about dom demand in the next year those dom contracts are going to be pushed off and they'll pivot those tons into export as they've been doing. Already approaching their contract floors risks to the upside now. Itmann costs will be lower post full ramp up but has been disappointing. Buybacks are ultimately going to drive the rerate"
X Link 2024-02-06T15:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Oh no how'd that get there UNRWA = Hamas Beneath UNRWAs Gaza Strip headquarters the IDF has uncovered one of Hamass most significant and top secret assets: a subterranean data center used by the terror group for intelligence and communications. The terror group built the server farm complete with an electrical room https://t.co/yCNPM51imV Beneath UNRWAs Gaza Strip headquarters the IDF has uncovered one of Hamass most significant and top secret assets: a subterranean data center used by the terror group for intelligence and communications. The terror group built the server farm complete with"
X Link 2024-02-10T18:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Happy to discuss. Agree with you that most market makers are quants trying their best with their models and algorithms to do this at scale. That's the opportunity. The variables they take into consideration at scale (most importantly historical/implied vol) not being the ones that really matter for the stock/situation over the life of the long-term term option. Vast majority of option volume is short-term and those are priced pretty efficiently so they don't really worry about the long-term inefficiencies. These models assume a normal distribution of outcomes as well. Sometimes you can find"
X Link 2024-02-20T13:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I try to use options to structure better risk to reward than longing the underlying stock when there is enough margin of safety for my forecasts and probabilities of where the stock will be at expiration. I normally look at the premium I'm paying as the cost to do business to structure a more favorable risk to reward and normally plan to hold until expiration. There are nuances and sometimes I'm expressing a direct view of future vol not looking like historical/impied vol and other short-term or special sits but normally I'm thinking probalistically and looking for situations where the"
X Link 2024-02-20T18:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$137 million charge seems very small for the hit to market cap. Alleviates the worst fears likely a blip in a year or two. ADM Revises Years of Internal Sales After Accounting Probe"
X Link 2024-03-12T13:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$GEO $CXW Supreme Court Wont Block Texas Immigration Law"
X Link 2024-03-19T18:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Been surprised in the weakness and multiple contraction compared to peers. 1/ $JACK is a franchisor of the Jack-in-the-Box ("JITB") and Del Taco ("DT") collectively [----] restaurants. JITB and DT are 94% and 71% franchised respectively. $JACK closed at $52.45 and mgmt just updated FY24E EPS guidance to $6.25-6.40 (8.3x P/E at the midpoint). 1/ $JACK is a franchisor of the Jack-in-the-Box ("JITB") and Del Taco ("DT") collectively [----] restaurants. JITB and DT are 94% and 71% franchised respectively. $JACK closed at $52.45 and mgmt just updated FY24E EPS guidance to $6.25-6.40 (8.3x P/E at the"
X Link 2024-05-22T03:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Border security becoming bipartisan. $GEO Biden to Issue Executive Order on Southern Border Limiting Asylum Rules https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-to-issue-executive-order-on-southern-border-limiting-asylum-rules-a9a021a5 https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-to-issue-executive-order-on-southern-border-limiting-asylum-rules-a9a021a5"
X Link 2024-06-03T16:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"They say it helps with customer relationships but the deprioritization of third-party capital to take these opportunities from the balance sheet doesn't make sense. The justifications for this was basically the work we're doing isn't worth the profit we're getting doing it with third party capital so we're going to do this from the balance sheet and do the same amount of work for more return. This logic totally ignores the highest return opportunity for the incremental dollar which I expect to be buybacks"
X Link 2024-07-17T13:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@pennycheck @orrdavid She defended the antisemitic campus protesters and her step daughter raised money for the UNRWA. She would absolutely be worse for Israel than Biden or Trump I don't think that's arguable"
X Link 2024-07-22T13:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$GEO suffering from Trump odds reversing but seems overblown. Harris said yesterday at her rally that she'll be tough on the border and supports Bidens proposal that would have been very beneficial to GEO. She also released a new campaign ad that had media outlets calling her a border hawk. Sure Trump would likely be much better but the share price doesn't belong here no matter who's next in the White House. Immigration and border security is becoming bipartisan. https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/09/harris-promises-to-go-tough-on-border-security-00173485"
X Link 2024-08-10T15:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$ELF This being sold on guidance is an opportunity. "Our approach on guidance I should mention is a pretty conservative approach. If you look back over five and a half years we usually take a very balanced view one quarter at a time. For example last year I think our initial guidance was something like 22-24% growth and we delivered 71% growth." Early innings of geographic expansion where they're often debuting as the #1 brand. Long runway of growth ahead. Elf Beauty getting hit today despite a beat and a raise. CEO Tarang Amin says the company takes a cautious approach to guidance but he's"
X Link 2024-08-12T19:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@odcventures They're the most affordable option by far priced much below comparable competitors. They have room to raise prices if they need to like they did last time tariffs were introduced. Should also matter less as they get an increasing exposure to outside the US with their expansion"
X Link 2024-08-12T19:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$GEO Founder and Executive Chairman with an additional 250k shares purchased. $GEO suffering from Trump odds reversing but seems overblown. Harris said yesterday at her rally that she'll be tough on the border and supports Bidens proposal that would have been very beneficial to GEO. She also released a new campaign ad that had media outlets calling her a $GEO suffering from Trump odds reversing but seems overblown. Harris said yesterday at her rally that she'll be tough on the border and supports Bidens proposal that would have been very beneficial to GEO. She also released a new campaign ad"
X Link 2024-08-14T11:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$GEO $CXW Harris says she supports Bidens border bill and would sign it. Takes the severe downside case out of the prison companies this is likely as bad as it gets for them no matter who wins. Border security has become bipartisan"
X Link 2024-08-30T01:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$ELF High margin high growth business with a long growth runway going for a reasonable valuation. Theyre an asset light company similar in business model to Coke. Theyve been taking a patient approach with their international expansion which seems to have been the correct strategy judging by their success in entering new markets in a dominant position. Only in a handful of countries right now with another few planned they have a long international growth runway ahead. They dont want to grow so fast that their existing partners suffer but should growth in their existing markets slow theyll"
X Link 2024-09-12T13:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@orrdavid All the companies in this boat should be going for a lower multiple imo. https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1828415560998080694t=XVt6hZ9eUXR0_5qtEClzZA&s=19 AI is an existential threat and disruptor to mega cap tech which is why they're less concerned about ROI. This spend should be seen as defensive in nature to protect the business. If this is the case and ROI may very well be negative why are these companies trading at https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1828415560998080694t=XVt6hZ9eUXR0_5qtEClzZA&s=19 AI is an existential threat and disruptor to mega cap tech which is why"
X Link 2024-09-16T12:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"RIP Legend Kris Kristofferson Singer Songwriter and Actor Dead at [--] https://www.bloomberg.com/en/news/thp/2024-09-29/kris-kristofferson-singer-songwriter-and-actor-dies-at-88 https://www.bloomberg.com/en/news/thp/2024-09-29/kris-kristofferson-singer-songwriter-and-actor-dies-at-88"
X Link 2024-09-30T02:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Everyone hated it at $30 but seem to love it at $50. Glad management took advantage to retire shares. $YUMC Share price weakness this year has surprised me but doesn't seem fundamentally warranted. Management taking full advantage by retiring shares over 5% of shares retired YTD. Share price weakness this year has surprised me but doesn't seem fundamentally warranted. Management taking full advantage by retiring shares over 5% of shares retired YTD"
X Link 2024-10-03T00:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Republicans sweep up to 47% on polymarket. No one owns enough $GEO in that scenario"
X Link 2024-10-24T13:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Republicans sweep up to 97%. Although I expect this to be volatile this isn't a short-term trade imo. With a sweep Trump has his mandate which includes locking down the border and mass deportations. $GEO will likely have a large earnings inflection which should allow them to hit their leverage target and pivot to buybacks expeditiously. Republicans sweep up to 47% on polymarket. No one owns enough $GEO in that scenario. Republicans sweep up to 47% on polymarket. No one owns enough $GEO in that scenario"
X Link 2024-11-06T13:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$GEO The bull case highlighted from quotes from the earnings call yesterday. I think to speak in generalities; were looking at a theoretical potential doubling of all of our services whether its in the detention segment in the transportation segment as well as the ISAP program. (The previous version of the House Homeland Security Appropriations Bill) would have also required the use of electronic GPS monitoring for all individuals in the non-detained docket (of illegal immigrants awaiting court proceedings) which is currently estimated to be more than [--] million people. (current participant"
X Link 2024-11-08T14:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"They're entering new geographies and debuting as the number one brand for their retail partners and staying there (Netherlands Italy Germany). That should tell you that their current marketing (much of which is through mediums that are global in nature and not geographically targeted) is likely more effective than their sales show. Marketing spend as a percentage of revenue I expect to go down as they expand disagree that they need a big ramp up in spend to achieve success in new markets. Just look at the success they've had already in every market they enter"
X Link 2024-11-09T14:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$ELF management responds strongly: "Muddy Waters has made numerous inaccurate statements about e.l.f. Beauty and our business by relying upon incomplete data and flawed assumptions omitting critical context and presenting speculation as fact. In particular in early [----] for competitive reasons and as permitted by applicable regulations we filed a request for confidentiality withU.S.Customs and Border Protection with respect to our customs import data. Therefore import data available to the public after February [--] [----] does not include a substantial majority of our actualU.S.imports. Further"
X Link 2024-11-21T12:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$GEO https://www.wsj.com/politics/senate-republicans-aim-to-tackle-border-first-taxes-later-98026ef8st=W1a4yr https://www.wsj.com/politics/senate-republicans-aim-to-tackle-border-first-taxes-later-98026ef8st=W1a4yr"
X Link 2024-12-04T04:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@hkuppy @LingmerthStefan @PauloMacro Unless if Russia is invading Ukraine again I'm not sure I'd make that comparison"
X Link 2024-12-08T21:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@stressed_assets I just don't see the appeal in TH compared to GEO. GEO is still not getting enough credit for the supervision side of the business. That's the real cash cow and opportunity and peers don't have it"
X Link 2024-12-30T14:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@nim_chef Hard to say but has to go up to somewhat closer to a utility multiple. If the contract is for over a decade and for the majority of capacity you'd think that's a pretty definitive income stream that they should rerate from but will need to see the details of the deal first"
X Link 2025-01-08T02:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Looks like MW sticking to the fraud short thesis on $ELF. Like I said right for the wrong reasons. My response: That makes no sense when considering they posted another revenue beat of over 7% in the last quarter. They're only going to get on the unwinding of this alleged massive fraud by forecasting stagnant growth next quarter My problem with their execution is they're not expanding internationally fast enough. If they were trying to make up sales to cover up fraud they would be expanding everywhere as quickly as they could. I think the more likely answer is that sales growth is slowing as"
X Link 2025-02-08T02:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$CEIX $CNR would be at least 50% higher if they never did the deal. European natural gas benchmark TTF surges above [--] per MWh put it in oil terms it has reached the $100 per barrel of oil equivalent level. Absolutely destructive for energy-intensive manufacturing. European natural gas benchmark TTF surges above [--] per MWh put it in oil terms it has reached the $100 per barrel of oil equivalent level. Absolutely destructive for energy-intensive manufacturing"
X Link 2025-02-10T14:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
""But using military aircraft to transport some migrants to their home countries or to a military base at Guantanamo Bay has proved expensive and inefficient" The most efficient option for detention/transport/supervision is private enterprise $GEO $CXW https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/trump-deportation-flights-paused-cost-c37c577ast=5uu9Lh https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/trump-deportation-flights-paused-cost-c37c577ast=5uu9Lh"
X Link 2025-03-05T18:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@mfwarder What could have been 😪 https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1822989839223926925t=KX_bUOMt9UmVQvNJq5fbNw&s=19 https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1822989839223926925t=KX_bUOMt9UmVQvNJq5fbNw&s=19"
X Link 2025-03-22T00:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"What an absolute clown. Spewing bullshit on things he doesn't understand and can't justify but sure call the Jew a nazi and block him instead of justifying yourself. Imagine giving this guy money. @bennpeifert"
X Link 2025-05-12T03:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Think this might be a bigger deal than it seems. Piper Sandler had an analysis back in February that $ELF can offset a 30% tariff with a 2% price increase (and a 40% tariff offset by 6%). This price hike seems well above those levels and likely to expand margins as long as tariffs remain here while still being low enough that I'm not expecting unit sales to suffer. Likely to even see unit growth as pinched consumers trade down and prioritize value. Starting August [--] our prices are going up by $1.* Bringing you the best of beauty is getting more $$$ but were committed to keeping the quality"
X Link 2025-05-24T12:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"AG Bondi and Homan both previously on the $GEO payroll https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/05/27/border-czar-ethics-consulting-fees/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/05/27/border-czar-ethics-consulting-fees/"
X Link 2025-05-27T15:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$GEO Under the leadership of @POTUS Trump and @Sec_Noem @ICEgov has been empowered to enforce the law and put the safety of American citizens FIRST. https://t.co/N2Kevf5Uq9 Under the leadership of @POTUS Trump and @Sec_Noem @ICEgov has been empowered to enforce the law and put the safety of American citizens FIRST. https://t.co/N2Kevf5Uq9"
X Link 2025-07-05T18:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$GEO ICE moves to shackle some [------] immigrants with GPS ankle monitors https://www.washingtonpost.com/immigration/2025/07/24/ice-check-in-ankle-monitor-immigrants/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/immigration/2025/07/24/ice-check-in-ankle-monitor-immigrants/"
X Link 2025-07-24T11:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$GEO Trump Administration Orders Massive Expansion of GPS Ankle Monitors for Immigrants Ankle monitors could double taxpayer costs to $500000 per day despite nearly 100% compliance for people in ICE's alternatives to detention program. https://t.co/5h2vPjpKk5 Trump Administration Orders Massive Expansion of GPS Ankle Monitors for Immigrants Ankle monitors could double taxpayer costs to $500000 per day despite nearly 100% compliance for people in ICE's alternatives to detention program. https://t.co/5h2vPjpKk5"
X Link 2025-07-27T23:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$GEO The former private prison exec behind ICEs immigrant detention surge https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/08/01/ice-david-venturella-geo-immigration-detention/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/08/01/ice-david-venturella-geo-immigration-detention/"
X Link 2025-08-02T19:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Think both $ELF and $GEO getting unfairly punished for short-term effects of little meaning. $ELF results backwards looking from a much higher tariff rate than there is today and not reflecting the price increase that went into effect Aug 1st. With the current tariff rate ELF estimates a $50M annual impact. Unless if there is major demand destruction which I don't expect the dollar per unit price increase is likely to bring in at least $150M being a net positive. I wonder if the credit card data starting to reflect this price increase will have any impact on sentiment. I also thought it was"
X Link 2025-08-07T18:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$GEO back to election day levels despite an evolution fundamentally that bulls could have only wished for. Arrests and detention numbers at all-time highs ICE officers rising 50% ATD prioritizing higher cost ankle monitoring ICE budget is tripling. The administration is filled with former GEO employees and lobbyists from the border czar Tom Homan to the AG Pam Bondi. Thanks to their recent state prison sale they've even delevered and introduced a buyback sooner than I expected. Despite all this the market doesn't seem to appreciate the uncertainty and lack of current earnings inflection. With"
X Link 2025-08-12T14:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@resetbasis Dude loves to talk shit about things he doesnt understand. https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1921762935677894812t=ra5lUanofMgyCbMZAyyb_Q&s=19 What an absolute clown. Spewing bullshit on things he doesn't understand and can't justify but sure call the Jew a nazi and block him instead of justifying yourself. Imagine giving this guy money. @bennpeifert https://t.co/I4xhOBRap7 https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1921762935677894812t=ra5lUanofMgyCbMZAyyb_Q&s=19 What an absolute clown. Spewing bullshit on things he doesn't understand and can't justify but sure call the Jew a nazi and"
X Link 2025-08-18T16:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Happy Rhode initial retail store launch day to those who celebrate. Debuting in Sephora in the U.S. and Canada today. $ELF"
X Link 2025-09-04T13:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"This is what the WH is posting and you're not long $GEO 🚁🚁🚁 https://t.co/6LSUCBcDQK 🚁🚁🚁 https://t.co/6LSUCBcDQK"
X Link 2025-09-06T16:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$FLR was trading at an EV of $5.5B (excluding their Nuscale stake) at the end of [----] when $SMR was trading around [--] dollars a share. SMR share price has more than 10xed since then with FLR's stake now worth $5B yet FLR hasn't gotten any credit for this and is still at an EV of $5.5B (excluding SMR) despite being more deleveraged and generally in a better place with own their businesses compared to [----]. FLR wants to cut their SMR stake in half and just converted 15M shares that ended their lock-up period last week. I'm hopeful that they monetize this quickly and proceeds go to buybacks as"
X Link 2025-09-15T12:39Z [----] followers, 12.7K engagements
"They're selling. Recent Form [---] for the 15M shares said 'The shares represented by this filing are expected to be sold from time-to-time in multiple transactions within [--] months of this filing.' Hell of a cash influx before year end. $FLR $SMR"
X Link 2025-09-19T12:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@InvestInOnG I dont disagree. Just dream about what could have been if Consol just did buybacks the whole time and didnt bother with this mess"
X Link 2025-10-08T23:23Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"I get that and Itmann was a huge disappointment. I just disagree that they needed diversification. PAMC is too much of a cash machine their production cost is so low. I didn't even think the contracting to the extent they do made sense with where they are on the cost curve. Along with a balance sheet that was net cash I think Consol could have weathered anything. Even a much more leveraged Consol did ok during the pandemic compared to peers or other commodities. If anything the diversification looks more important for the met guys. ARCH did well for their shareholders to tie their boat to"
X Link 2025-10-08T23:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"When you underperform on the way up and on the way down it's time to reevaluate capital allocation. $ARCH"
X Link 2023-06-01T16:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I had a great time attending and presenting at ValueX Vail. Great experience with an incredible group of people. I presented on the opportunity in coal and the transformation of Consol Energy $CEIX I look forward to attending again in the future"
X Link 2024-06-24T15:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"If $ELF doesn't capitalize on their international success by ramping up their expansion I think its possible someone else could do it for them. A global competitor who they've been eating market share from could acquire the company and use their infrastructure to quickly expand globally. Would provide a long growth runway to the legacy acquirer at an attractive valuation and take out a competitor that's been eating into your business domestically before they do too much damage internationally. $ELF No new country expansion announcements in two quarters now. The fact they have growth slowing"
X Link 2025-02-07T16:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$CXW call made it sound like they're shopping for assets. $TH seems like the logical target with their existing relationship and they highlighted them positively a couple of times on the call. Wouldn't shock me if something is done here eventually"
X Link 2025-02-12T14:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Agreed $HNRG I've got pretty high conviction that this power trade is inning 2-3 vs played out. Power has never been a meaningful bottleneck for compute. Now it is as essential of an ingredient as chip innovations. This is what I was carrying prior to liquidation: VST CCJ VG EQT BE VRT EQT I've got pretty high conviction that this power trade is inning 2-3 vs played out. Power has never been a meaningful bottleneck for compute. Now it is as essential of an ingredient as chip innovations. This is what I was carrying prior to liquidation: VST CCJ VG EQT BE VRT EQT"
X Link 2025-06-03T16:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$HNRG $IREN Morgan Stanley: We believe the consensus view is not sufficiently bullish regarding the value creation opportunity for companies that can provide "time to power" solutions for data centers. One example of a way to think about the value creation potential: through [----] if $IREN Morgan Stanley: We believe the consensus view is not sufficiently bullish regarding the value creation opportunity for companies that can provide "time to power" solutions for data centers. One example of a way to think about the value creation potential: through [----] if"
X Link 2025-06-08T14:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$FLR has now sold 14.1M shares of $SMR for proceeds of $560M in about [--] weeks. 900k shares more to sell in this 15M tranche and then hopefully a new conversion and sell program is announced soon. 111M more shares able to be converted and sold although only expecting them to sell another 50M or so to reach their target of 20-25% ownership. Huge cash inflows for their EV. $FLR was trading at an EV of $5.5B (excluding their Nuscale stake) at the end of [----] when $SMR was trading around [--] dollars a share. SMR share price has more than 10xed since then with FLR's stake now worth $5B yet FLR hasn't"
X Link 2025-10-06T22:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"What a mess and more proof that this merger should have never occurred. $CNR"
X Link 2025-10-08T12:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$FLR $605M in proceeds in less than [--] days and "intends to use a majority of the proceeds from this sale to enhance its ongoing share repurchase program.""
X Link 2025-10-09T20:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Getting $FLR net of their $SMR stake for about $0 EV right now after accounting for recent proceeds offset with NOLs. This for a company with its own tailwinds that's actively monetizing their stake and using proceeds for buybacks. $FLR $605M in proceeds in less than [--] days and "intends to use a majority of the proceeds from this sale to enhance its ongoing share repurchase program." https://t.co/jSjqZqkRCY $FLR $605M in proceeds in less than [--] days and "intends to use a majority of the proceeds from this sale to enhance its ongoing share repurchase program." https://t.co/jSjqZqkRCY"
X Link 2025-10-13T18:05Z [----] followers, 10.1K engagements
"Not making as much as hoped so far but ICE just got their budget tripled at the end of August and is now dealing with the shutdown. Interior enforcement has been going vertical backlog of court cases continues to rise new contracts for their idled facilities were popping up frequently prior to the shutdown they just got a [--] year renewal on the supervision side of the business had a deleveraging event selling a facility. Have to get past the shutdown but expecting enforcement to continue to ramp and that tripled ICE budget to be spent next year should really start to see the earnings"
X Link 2025-10-23T19:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$ELF quarter is indefensible. Current management not the ones to fix it. Seemingly thinking they're still in growth mode with SG&A exploding with little growth to show for it. Guidance was atrocious for their core ELF brand they should be accelerating international rollout and cutting back on marketing in the US where they're already well known and established if the brand is mature domestically. No real evidence the price hike went to the bottom line but seems like some pricing was slow to kick in so maybe this is a bit delayed. Guidance for ELF under price hike seems to suggest there's some"
X Link 2025-11-06T16:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$FLR $SMR big news https://www.nuscalepower.com/press-releases/2025/fluor-and-nuscale-announce-agreement-regarding-stake-monetization https://www.nuscalepower.com/press-releases/2025/fluor-and-nuscale-announce-agreement-regarding-stake-monetization"
X Link 2025-11-06T22:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$FLR Said on the call that the $800m in buybacks is from the first tranche of $SMR divestment/cash flows and that buybacks after February will continue with the new sale proceeds. They could retire an insane amount of shares over the next year. Divestment of the SMR stake starts next week. $FLR https://t.co/4Xgz14fl0q $FLR https://t.co/4Xgz14fl0q"
X Link 2025-11-07T14:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$FLR As per the form [---] "In accordance with interpretive letters from the SEC to Goldman Sachs & Co. (12/20/99) and Bank of America N.A. Merrill Lynch Pierce Fenner & Smith Inc. (12/1/11) the shares being sold are expected to be subject to a post-paid forward sale contract ("Contract") with a financial institution. At maturity the seller expects to deliver the number of shares described herein and receive a cash payment based on the VWAP of the Common Stock during a valuation period determined by the financial institution subject to an agreed maturity window. The seller expects to pledge the"
X Link 2025-11-07T23:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$GEO 🚨 BREAKING: Tom Homan just INFURIATED Zohran Mamdani and Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson by confirming illegal alien beds will nearly DOUBLE to [------] THOUSAND 🔥 https://t.co/zFviQ2Ypoi [------] beds turn over [--] times a year You got a MILLION deportations We will 🚨 BREAKING: Tom Homan just INFURIATED Zohran Mamdani and Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson by confirming illegal alien beds will nearly DOUBLE to [------] THOUSAND 🔥 https://t.co/zFviQ2Ypoi [------] beds turn over [--] times a year You got a MILLION deportations We will"
X Link 2025-11-10T12:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"As of [--] days ago detention numbers were at 65k according to Homan. Thats just shy of a 9% increase since TRAC last published their data on Sept 21st despite the government shutdown. In the same time $GEO is down 30%. ICE is still ramping up in my opinion and hasn't yet started spending their new budget due to the shutdown and detention populations are still going vertical. At 65k they're basically at capacity so will likely be seeing more contracts signed soon with the shutdown now over. Shocked that both $CXW and $GEO back down here but seems nonsensical and expecting the businesses to"
X Link 2025-11-13T20:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$GT Tepper added pretty heavy albeit a small position overall. Guessing this is a tariff play. I've been searching for companies with a lot of convexity to tariffs getting thrown out and GT had the largest tariff impact (as a percentage of market cap) out of anyone I could find. Annual tariff impact of $350M on a $2.16B market cap. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1989733495430668394 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1989733495430668394"
X Link 2025-11-15T16:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Think Whirlpool is more domestic manufacturering focused. I saw that as a levered housing play from him but I have no idea. GT you may be right but tariffs on lower costs imports don't help much when you're suffering from tariffs yourself. Might be less than peers but they're suffering all the same. $350M a huge additional tax for their market cap and margins can't imagine they wouldn't respond well to them being taken off but you may be right that it would hurt them competitively"
X Link 2025-11-16T00:23Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"They rarely broke 30k arrests a month and have now broken 40k last month and on track to break 50k this month. ICE just got their tripled budget at the end of August that money is starting to be put to work. Market is giving up on the earnings inflection way too quickly. $GEO"
X Link 2025-11-21T16:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$GEO Similar EV as election day [----]. Compared with last November ICE's detention population is up 65% yoy and ICE monthly arrests are up 700% yoy. Lower EV now than when Biden was inaugurated in [----] despite a detention population number 450% higher (14k then compared to 65k now). More arrests in October and November [----] than the entirety of [----]. Business has never been better the real estate has never been more valuable (particularly after the rise in inflation) deleveraging is basically finished and management has pivoted to buybacks and the stock is still trading at a historically low"
X Link 2025-11-24T14:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Detention numbers were rising quickly even at much lower arrest rates the last few months. Some statements from management on the recent earnings call that deportations were being executed at around full capacity as well. I dont think deportation capacity is easily scalable either because its often not just the logistics but also the case and court proceedings that are difficult to scale. There's already over 3.4M cases in immigration court backlog. TRAC Immigration has some useful statistics on this. The average time in an ATD program as of last month was [-----] days. There is nothing fast"
X Link 2025-11-27T02:23Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$GEO Contract today highlights the focus on the non-detained docket. I think with the increase in no-shows to court that supervision programs on this population are increasingly likely. https://www.npr.org/2025/12/22/nx-s1-5583971/trump-ice-immigration-arrests-deportation-no-shows https://www.npr.org/2025/12/22/nx-s1-5583971/trump-ice-immigration-arrests-deportation-no-shows"
X Link 2025-12-22T15:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Think its momentum more than anything. They're down considerably from the start of government shutdown and the ensuing data blackout. As the data has restarted we see that they weren't impacted numbers remain skyrocketing but they haven't recovered. Think these were crowded plays post election and the lack of an immediate earnings inflection led to a lot of continued selling and downward momentum that hasn't been broken yet. GEO also has the ATD segment which has so far been disappointing. With the rise in no shows to court and with ICE likely going to run out of detention capacity if these"
X Link 2025-12-23T19:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@RodriGo_ethe The year of momentum"
X Link 2025-12-26T18:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@taobanker Think today is due to the death of Congressman LaMalfa and how it changes the power in the House. Does it matter ICE funded until Sept [----] and LaMalfa's redraw district was likely flipping blue this year anyways so seems overblown to me. $GEO"
X Link 2026-01-06T18:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$GEO $CXW "Lyons (acting director of ICE) wrote that the Trump administration's departments of Homeland Security and Justice had 'revised its legal position on detention and release authorities' and determined that such immigrants (any who crossed the border illegally) 'may not be released from ICE custody.'" Detention numbers are going to explode. With their goals of 3000+ arrests a day and detention levels already at records there's not enough detention capacity. Would think its likely they'll eventually have to incorporate ATD programs. Surprised the market doesn't seem to have responded"
X Link 2025-07-15T14:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$GEO $CXW Finally new ICE data. Detention numbers sitting at all time highs and growing quickly arrests over the last two months smashing through all time highs by a significant margin and higher cost ankle monitoring continuing to be the priority while ATD numbers are relatively stable around 182k. With these arrest and detention numbers I continue to believe its a matter of time until all available bed capacity is met forcing greater ATD participation. Also still think theres a small chance supervision gets eventually broadened to the non-detained docket. The divergence between the share"
X Link 2025-11-21T15:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"New data out yesterday. [-----] in ICE detention on Dec 12th up from [-----] on November [--]. Still going vertical. $GEO $CXW"
X Link 2025-12-23T18:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$GEO $CXW "Homan said the number of arrests will increase sharply as ICE hires more officers and expands detention capacity with the new funding. 'I think you're going to see the numbers explode greatly next year' Homan said. Homan said the plans absolutely include more enforcement actions at workplaces." https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-set-expand-immigration-crackdown-2026-despite-brewing-backlash-2025-12-21/ https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-set-expand-immigration-crackdown-2026-despite-brewing-backlash-2025-12-21/"
X Link 2025-12-27T15:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$GEO $CXW Border Czar Homan said in his interview yesterday that they're arresting [----] people a day on average. https://youtu.be/FfNyXDupcDssi=nmUM2uNU6GZOQAyF https://youtu.be/FfNyXDupcDssi=nmUM2uNU6GZOQAyF"
X Link 2026-01-08T15:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$GEO $CXW CBS reporting that the number as of yesterday is [-----]. Thats [----] added in a month still going vertical. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ices-detainee-population-record-high-of-73000/ New data out yesterday. [-----] in ICE detention on Dec 12th up from [-----] on November [--]. Still going vertical. $GEO $CXW https://t.co/DTunqK7K7A https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ices-detainee-population-record-high-of-73000/ New data out yesterday. [-----] in ICE detention on Dec 12th up from [-----] on November [--]. Still going vertical. $GEO $CXW https://t.co/DTunqK7K7A"
X Link 2026-01-17T01:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$HNRG Trump has spoken. Data Centers need captive inside the fence power generation. The shortest term solution (with $GEV $SIEGY sold out on gas turbines) and nukes taking 6-10 years are things like $BE $FSLR $TE. Our note on $TE is below. $VST $TLN $NRG $CEG and more are all https://t.co/tOpLCZsWmb Trump has spoken. Data Centers need captive inside the fence power generation. The shortest term solution (with $GEV $SIEGY sold out on gas turbines) and nukes taking 6-10 years are things like $BE $FSLR $TE. Our note on $TE is below. $VST $TLN $NRG $CEG and more are all https://t.co/tOpLCZsWmb"
X Link 2026-01-13T01:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$ELF on the subject of wasting marketing spend was a superbowl ad (and a bad one at that) a good use of capital for their target audience Between this and the full page NYT print ad who are they marketing to I exited last year but what a negative turn this has taken. Price increase was obviously not accepted as much as expected unit volume significantly negative. CEO took it defensively on the call when asked how they reaccelerate ELF growth thinks hes beyond reproach. Management won't even break out ELF / Rhode international anymore because ELF international has been significantly negative"
X Link 2026-02-09T16:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"If this goes through DHS spends $380k per bed for retrofitted warehouses. Would be an incredible waste of money for a very subpar solution. They could buy GEO/CXW's turnkey facilities that are specifically designed for this for a fraction of the cost. Seems like the future of the businesses rests on them convincing DHS to buy their facilities. The plan should sell itself compared to the warehouse solution but if this doesn't happen GEO/CXW could be in for a world of pain as their biggest customer leaves them and strands their assets. On the other hand $380k a bed for retrofitted warehouses"
X Link 2026-02-14T21:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$BUR I met with management a couple times recently and came away disappointed. Burford is not prioritizing the highest return with the incremental dollar. The priorities are first funding large high return cases then funding the less risky lower return opportunities. A buyback is something that would only happen with 'excess capital' after these lower return opportunities are exhausted. So they seemingly prioritize total portfolio asset growth over investing the incremental dollar in the highest return opportunity. I believe its a mistake to dilute the portfolio into lower return"
X Link 2024-06-28T15:01Z [----] followers, 19.3K engagements
"My wife knows if anything were to ever happen to me give everything to @orrdavid. So many ways to make money in markets and me and David could not have more different styles. Given portfolio size and style I could never replicate his results I don't think anyone really can. He's had success through multiple market regimes while being so diversified and tilted short that I wouldn't have expected outperformance to be possible. A very atypical style that doesn't fit in any one box but the outlier returns to prove it works. John Hempton a very talented investor has an interesting take on my"
X Link 2025-07-23T23:58Z [----] followers, 11.8K engagements
"John Hempton a very talented investor has an interesting take on my business partner @orrdavid who I believe is one of the best discretionary investors active today. John sees David as a poker player-turned-trader not an investor and is uncertain his edge will scale. I disagree. In fact Im more optimistic than David that his edge is scalable. Ive assessed many managers and Id say my hit rate is very good. Looking back Ive been right for the right reasons. David is the first hedge fund manager Ive ever invested in. I was a big day-one investor in his fund and Ive talked with him a lot so I"
X Link 2025-07-23T22:17Z 11.3K followers, 72.8K engagements
"Insane to me how blatant antisemitism has seemingly been widely accepted. Mostly from the losers of the world or those hiding behind anonymity. Imagine being a supposed capitalist and thinking the Jews deserved the holocaust because we outperform in meritocratic capitalist systems. @TylerDurden"
X Link 2025-08-17T22:00Z [----] followers, 10.6K engagements
"What an absolute clown. Spewing bullshit on things he doesn't understand and can't justify but sure call the Jew a nazi and block him instead of justifying yourself. Imagine giving this guy money. @bennpeifert"
X Link 2025-05-12T03:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@puppyeh1 They should be driving their own rerating through a buyback taking advantage of the misunderstanding and undervaluation. Instead they're investing in lower return opportunities and see a buyback as a return of capital. It's a misallocation issue imo. https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1806704446757306632t=lUaM7khNTeCtIu3sdhg3_w&s=19 $BUR I met with management a couple times recently and came away disappointed. Burford is not prioritizing the highest return with the incremental dollar. The priorities are first funding large high return cases then funding the less risky lower return"
X Link 2024-07-17T13:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$ELF management responds strongly: "Muddy Waters has made numerous inaccurate statements about e.l.f. Beauty and our business by relying upon incomplete data and flawed assumptions omitting critical context and presenting speculation as fact. In particular in early [----] for competitive reasons and as permitted by applicable regulations we filed a request for confidentiality withU.S.Customs and Border Protection with respect to our customs import data. Therefore import data available to the public after February [--] [----] does not include a substantial majority of our actualU.S.imports. Further"
X Link 2024-11-21T12:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"MW is short $ELF. We believe it's overstating revenue profits inventory. 80% of its product is imported. Import data show [--] quarters ago ELFs imports crashed by 2/3 & havent recovered yet sales in the US have defied this trend. We see rev overstatement of $135mm-$190mm https://muddywatersresearch.com/research/elf/mw-is-short-elf/ https://muddywatersresearch.com/research/elf/mw-is-short-elf/"
X Link 2024-11-20T16:31Z 247.2K followers, 218.3K engagements
"$GEO Founder and Executive Chairman with an additional 250k shares purchased. $GEO suffering from Trump odds reversing but seems overblown. Harris said yesterday at her rally that she'll be tough on the border and supports Bidens proposal that would have been very beneficial to GEO. She also released a new campaign ad that had media outlets calling her a $GEO suffering from Trump odds reversing but seems overblown. Harris said yesterday at her rally that she'll be tough on the border and supports Bidens proposal that would have been very beneficial to GEO. She also released a new campaign ad"
X Link 2024-08-14T11:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$GEO suffering from Trump odds reversing but seems overblown. Harris said yesterday at her rally that she'll be tough on the border and supports Bidens proposal that would have been very beneficial to GEO. She also released a new campaign ad that had media outlets calling her a border hawk. Sure Trump would likely be much better but the share price doesn't belong here no matter who's next in the White House. Immigration and border security is becoming bipartisan. https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/09/harris-promises-to-go-tough-on-border-security-00173485"
X Link 2024-08-10T15:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$AMR a company that understands capital allocation. Paraphrasing - "M&A Hard to do when we're valued around 2x. Our biggest focus is on buying more $AMR shares.""
X Link 2023-02-23T15:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Getting $FLR net of their $SMR stake for about $0 EV right now after accounting for recent proceeds offset with NOLs. This for a company with its own tailwinds that's actively monetizing their stake and using proceeds for buybacks. $FLR $605M in proceeds in less than [--] days and "intends to use a majority of the proceeds from this sale to enhance its ongoing share repurchase program." https://t.co/jSjqZqkRCY $FLR $605M in proceeds in less than [--] days and "intends to use a majority of the proceeds from this sale to enhance its ongoing share repurchase program." https://t.co/jSjqZqkRCY"
X Link 2025-10-13T18:05Z [----] followers, 10.1K engagements
"$FLR $605M in proceeds in less than [--] days and "intends to use a majority of the proceeds from this sale to enhance its ongoing share repurchase program.""
X Link 2025-10-09T20:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$FLR was trading at an EV of $5.5B (excluding their Nuscale stake) at the end of [----] when $SMR was trading around [--] dollars a share. SMR share price has more than 10xed since then with FLR's stake now worth $5B yet FLR hasn't gotten any credit for this and is still at an EV of $5.5B (excluding SMR) despite being more deleveraged and generally in a better place with own their businesses compared to [----]. FLR wants to cut their SMR stake in half and just converted 15M shares that ended their lock-up period last week. I'm hopeful that they monetize this quickly and proceeds go to buybacks as"
X Link 2025-09-15T12:39Z [----] followers, 12.7K engagements
"As of [--] days ago detention numbers were at 65k according to Homan. Thats just shy of a 9% increase since TRAC last published their data on Sept 21st despite the government shutdown. In the same time $GEO is down 30%. ICE is still ramping up in my opinion and hasn't yet started spending their new budget due to the shutdown and detention populations are still going vertical. At 65k they're basically at capacity so will likely be seeing more contracts signed soon with the shutdown now over. Shocked that both $CXW and $GEO back down here but seems nonsensical and expecting the businesses to"
X Link 2025-11-13T20:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$GEO 🚨 BREAKING: Tom Homan just INFURIATED Zohran Mamdani and Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson by confirming illegal alien beds will nearly DOUBLE to [------] THOUSAND 🔥 https://t.co/zFviQ2Ypoi [------] beds turn over [--] times a year You got a MILLION deportations We will 🚨 BREAKING: Tom Homan just INFURIATED Zohran Mamdani and Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson by confirming illegal alien beds will nearly DOUBLE to [------] THOUSAND 🔥 https://t.co/zFviQ2Ypoi [------] beds turn over [--] times a year You got a MILLION deportations We will"
X Link 2025-11-10T12:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$GEO back to election day levels despite an evolution fundamentally that bulls could have only wished for. Arrests and detention numbers at all-time highs ICE officers rising 50% ATD prioritizing higher cost ankle monitoring ICE budget is tripling. The administration is filled with former GEO employees and lobbyists from the border czar Tom Homan to the AG Pam Bondi. Thanks to their recent state prison sale they've even delevered and introduced a buyback sooner than I expected. Despite all this the market doesn't seem to appreciate the uncertainty and lack of current earnings inflection. With"
X Link 2025-08-12T14:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Republicans sweep up to 97%. Although I expect this to be volatile this isn't a short-term trade imo. With a sweep Trump has his mandate which includes locking down the border and mass deportations. $GEO will likely have a large earnings inflection which should allow them to hit their leverage target and pivot to buybacks expeditiously. Republicans sweep up to 47% on polymarket. No one owns enough $GEO in that scenario. Republicans sweep up to 47% on polymarket. No one owns enough $GEO in that scenario"
X Link 2024-11-06T13:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"I had a great time attending and presenting at ValueX Vail. Great experience with an incredible group of people. I presented on the opportunity in coal and the transformation of Consol Energy $CEIX I look forward to attending again in the future"
X Link 2024-06-24T15:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$CEIX could outperform all the coal companies over the next couple decades imo. Looking at the supply demand forecasts of seaborne high cv thermal compared to met high cv looks much more constructive particularly 5-10+ years out. I think this wider supply/demand gap results in less cyclicality and higher prices. I expect high cv thermal prices will command a price closer to met prices than in the past with spikes above to encourage crossover met when it's needed. If this happens Consol could have structurally much higher margins than the met companies and they're perfectly positioned to"
X Link 2024-08-12T13:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Jimmy Brock is a national treasure $CEIX"
X Link 2023-09-28T17:29Z [----] followers, 50.8K engagements
"Impressive results from $CEIX. Cash machine executing operationally. Very happy to see them up shareholder returns to 75% of FCF with a focus on buybacks. No reason for dividends at this FCF yield. Bought back 3.5% of float this Q at $55.60 should accelerate the rest of the year"
X Link 2023-05-02T11:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$CEIX $CEIX could outperform all the coal companies over the next couple decades imo. Looking at the supply demand forecasts of seaborne high cv thermal compared to met high cv looks much more constructive particularly 5-10+ years out. I think this wider supply/demand gap results in $CEIX could outperform all the coal companies over the next couple decades imo. Looking at the supply demand forecasts of seaborne high cv thermal compared to met high cv looks much more constructive particularly 5-10+ years out. I think this wider supply/demand gap results in"
X Link 2024-08-21T12:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Chart crime but it's beautiful. Happy to see them getting rid of the dividend at the end of the year to focus entirely on buybacks. Basic weighted average sharecount was [--------] for the quarter. End of July down to [--------]. Incredible. $AMR"
X Link 2023-08-04T12:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The monsters we're up against. Good vs evil. Right before committing this mornings Stabbing Attack in the Northern Israeli City of Hadera the Terrorist who was armed with an Axe and a Knife attempted to enter a Kindergarten which was thankfully Locked. https://t.co/8oPO1bRVPi Right before committing this mornings Stabbing Attack in the Northern Israeli City of Hadera the Terrorist who was armed with an Axe and a Knife attempted to enter a Kindergarten which was thankfully Locked. https://t.co/8oPO1bRVPi"
X Link 2024-10-09T19:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Right before committing this mornings Stabbing Attack in the Northern Israeli City of Hadera the Terrorist who was armed with an Axe and a Knife attempted to enter a Kindergarten which was thankfully Locked"
X Link 2024-10-09T19:01Z 1.9M followers, 250.4K engagements
"David's been an absolute market killer through numerous regimes. @John_Hempton Just me and the combined. One of my best weeks ever. https://t.co/naMijKf7WX @John_Hempton Just me and the combined. One of my best weeks ever. https://t.co/naMijKf7WX"
X Link 2025-03-15T12:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@John_Hempton Just me and the combined. One of my best weeks ever"
X Link 2025-03-15T06:12Z 31.3K followers, [----] engagements
"@jimcramer @agnostoxxx we got him all systems go"
X Link 2023-03-27T21:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$GEO $CXW "Lyons (acting director of ICE) wrote that the Trump administration's departments of Homeland Security and Justice had 'revised its legal position on detention and release authorities' and determined that such immigrants (any who crossed the border illegally) 'may not be released from ICE custody.'" Detention numbers are going to explode. With their goals of 3000+ arrests a day and detention levels already at records there's not enough detention capacity. Would think its likely they'll eventually have to incorporate ATD programs. Surprised the market doesn't seem to have responded"
X Link 2025-07-15T14:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Happy to discuss. Agree with you that most market makers are quants trying their best with their models and algorithms to do this at scale. That's the opportunity. The variables they take into consideration at scale (most importantly historical/implied vol) not being the ones that really matter for the stock/situation over the life of the long-term term option. Vast majority of option volume is short-term and those are priced pretty efficiently so they don't really worry about the long-term inefficiencies. These models assume a normal distribution of outcomes as well. Sometimes you can find"
X Link 2024-02-20T13:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@bennpeifert 🤡"
X Link 2025-05-12T02:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"It's a ridiculous argument. Companies buybacks are only effective if the stock is above the buyback price That's a very very short term view. These shares don't return and the buyback was a big part of the story of why they're going for a higher multiple than peers. What would you prefer they spend it on another Itmann or M&A Hasn't been value accretive for companies that have done either. Despite transforming the business and taking away most of the risk they're at a similar enterprise value to when they spun off a decade ago despite the changes in the industry. How do you think that's not a"
X Link 2024-02-09T13:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Thanks for having me again Can't recommend idea brunch enough. @IdeaBrunchEmail @StockJabber New Idea Brunch with Ryan Rahinsky @blueoutliercap We discuss his strong first year revisit his good call on $CEIX (up 80% since last year) and hear some of his new top ideas Enjoy https://t.co/13ZA77HRSG New Idea Brunch with Ryan Rahinsky @blueoutliercap We discuss his strong first year revisit his good call on $CEIX (up 80% since last year) and hear some of his new top ideas Enjoy https://t.co/13ZA77HRSG"
X Link 2024-01-07T18:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"New Idea Brunch with Ryan Rahinsky @blueoutliercap We discuss his strong first year revisit his good call on $CEIX (up 80% since last year) and hear some of his new top ideas Enjoy https://www.readideabrunch.com/p/idea-brunch-2-with-ryan-rahinsky https://www.readideabrunch.com/p/idea-brunch-2-with-ryan-rahinsky"
X Link 2024-01-07T18:23Z [----] followers, 15.5K engagements
"@resetbasis Dude loves to talk shit about things he doesnt understand. https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1921762935677894812t=ra5lUanofMgyCbMZAyyb_Q&s=19 What an absolute clown. Spewing bullshit on things he doesn't understand and can't justify but sure call the Jew a nazi and block him instead of justifying yourself. Imagine giving this guy money. @bennpeifert https://t.co/I4xhOBRap7 https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1921762935677894812t=ra5lUanofMgyCbMZAyyb_Q&s=19 What an absolute clown. Spewing bullshit on things he doesn't understand and can't justify but sure call the Jew a nazi and"
X Link 2025-08-18T16:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Drawdown in $CEIX is easier to handle now knowing they're throwing 75% of FCF into buybacks. $AMR similar story. Keep selling them"
X Link 2023-05-30T14:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$GEO $CXW Harris says she supports Bidens border bill and would sign it. Takes the severe downside case out of the prison companies this is likely as bad as it gets for them no matter who wins. Border security has become bipartisan"
X Link 2024-08-30T01:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Bit opposite for me. I was warned not to take this route that there's a path (through IB and then buyside) that you take and that very few independent start from nothing funds make it. All that is absolutely right and I appreciated the candor. If you can be talked out of starting a fund you shouldn't start one to begin with. You need conviction and confidence in your abilities enough to disregard all this and the statistics around the likely failure and go for it. If you already have doubts before starting you likely don't have the conviction to see it through. You dont need to be old to be"
X Link 2024-11-29T15:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"You dont need to be old to be right. The most motivational thing ever told to me. I was [--] at the time. These were the words of Richard Rainwater an important unofficial mentor of mine. I pass the words down to the next generation who can help save us all"
X Link 2024-11-29T14:49Z 2M followers, 734.5K engagements
"$ELF quarter is indefensible. Current management not the ones to fix it. Seemingly thinking they're still in growth mode with SG&A exploding with little growth to show for it. Guidance was atrocious for their core ELF brand they should be accelerating international rollout and cutting back on marketing in the US where they're already well known and established if the brand is mature domestically. No real evidence the price hike went to the bottom line but seems like some pricing was slow to kick in so maybe this is a bit delayed. Guidance for ELF under price hike seems to suggest there's some"
X Link 2025-11-06T16:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Too early to say but any extended closure will undoubtedly impact $CEIX. Between Consol and CSX's Curtis Bay about 25% of the nation's coal exports depart from Baltimore. AT LEAST [--] COMMERCIAL SHIPS HEADED TO US BALTIMORE PORT DROP ANCHOR IN WATERS NEARBY - SHIP TRACKING DATA AT LEAST [--] COMMERCIAL SHIPS HEADED TO US BALTIMORE PORT DROP ANCHOR IN WATERS NEARBY - SHIP TRACKING DATA"
X Link 2024-03-26T12:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"AT LEAST [--] COMMERCIAL SHIPS HEADED TO US BALTIMORE PORT DROP ANCHOR IN WATERS NEARBY - SHIP TRACKING DATA"
X Link 2024-03-26T11:11Z 436.4K followers, 20.6K engagements
"$FLR has now sold 14.1M shares of $SMR for proceeds of $560M in about [--] weeks. 900k shares more to sell in this 15M tranche and then hopefully a new conversion and sell program is announced soon. 111M more shares able to be converted and sold although only expecting them to sell another 50M or so to reach their target of 20-25% ownership. Huge cash inflows for their EV. $FLR was trading at an EV of $5.5B (excluding their Nuscale stake) at the end of [----] when $SMR was trading around [--] dollars a share. SMR share price has more than 10xed since then with FLR's stake now worth $5B yet FLR hasn't"
X Link 2025-10-06T22:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$GT Tepper added pretty heavy albeit a small position overall. Guessing this is a tariff play. I've been searching for companies with a lot of convexity to tariffs getting thrown out and GT had the largest tariff impact (as a percentage of market cap) out of anyone I could find. Annual tariff impact of $350M on a $2.16B market cap. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1989733495430668394 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1989733495430668394"
X Link 2025-11-15T16:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$GEO The bull case highlighted from quotes from the earnings call yesterday. I think to speak in generalities; were looking at a theoretical potential doubling of all of our services whether its in the detention segment in the transportation segment as well as the ISAP program. (The previous version of the House Homeland Security Appropriations Bill) would have also required the use of electronic GPS monitoring for all individuals in the non-detained docket (of illegal immigrants awaiting court proceedings) which is currently estimated to be more than [--] million people. (current participant"
X Link 2024-11-08T14:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"+2500% in [--] years and blowing peers with other capital allocation priorities out of the water I'd still say the strategy worked. Huge net cash position waiting for steel/met coal markets to turn and when they finally do I bet they outperform on the upside too. If people started a position at [---] that's just showing up late to the game"
X Link 2025-01-08T15:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Fingers crossed Consol rejects this US coal miner Arch Resources is nearing a deal to merge with rival Consol Energy to create a $5 billion company people familiar say https://t.co/UDD0Z26wGn US coal miner Arch Resources is nearing a deal to merge with rival Consol Energy to create a $5 billion company people familiar say https://t.co/UDD0Z26wGn"
X Link 2024-08-21T02:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"US coal miner Arch Resources is nearing a deal to merge with rival Consol Energy to create a $5 billion company people familiar say https://trib.al/OX6dKmB https://trib.al/OX6dKmB"
X Link 2024-08-21T02:22Z 2M followers, 12.5K engagements
"$ELF This being sold on guidance is an opportunity. "Our approach on guidance I should mention is a pretty conservative approach. If you look back over five and a half years we usually take a very balanced view one quarter at a time. For example last year I think our initial guidance was something like 22-24% growth and we delivered 71% growth." Early innings of geographic expansion where they're often debuting as the #1 brand. Long runway of growth ahead. Elf Beauty getting hit today despite a beat and a raise. CEO Tarang Amin says the company takes a cautious approach to guidance but he's"
X Link 2024-08-12T19:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Elf Beauty getting hit today despite a beat and a raise. CEO Tarang Amin says the company takes a cautious approach to guidance but he's "highly confident of the growth prospects ahead of us" #beauty #earnings $ELF @elfcosmetics"
X Link 2024-08-09T21:19Z 68K followers, [----] engagements
"This is what happens when you demonize an entire population. Spread lies and call Jews nazis like the POS @bennpeifert or other useful idiots and you encourage disturbed people to commit heinous acts thinking they're heros. We are shocked and horrified this morning by the news of the brutal terrorist attack that claimed the lives of two of our Embassy staff members in Washington Yaron Lischinsky and Sarah Lynn Milgrim. May their memory be a blessing. We embrace the grieving families during this https://t.co/4lNQnTvORG We are shocked and horrified this morning by the news of the brutal"
X Link 2025-05-22T11:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"We are shocked and horrified this morning by the news of the brutal terrorist attack that claimed the lives of two of our Embassy staff members in Washington Yaron Lischinsky and Sarah Lynn Milgrim. May their memory be a blessing. We embrace the grieving families during this painful time and will continue to support them always. Israeli diplomats and representatives around the world stand on the frontlines of Israels diplomatic efforts defending the country with their very lives. We will not be deterred by terror. We will continue our mission across the globe with unwavering commitment to"
X Link 2025-05-22T07:51Z 1.9M followers, 879.9K engagements
"$NAPA good things have a tendency of happening to cheap assets"
X Link 2024-10-07T11:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$HNRG Could the US coal industry make a comeback The power source may be finding a second wind amid swelling demand for electricity https://t.co/AfFOTQXtQp Could the US coal industry make a comeback The power source may be finding a second wind amid swelling demand for electricity https://t.co/AfFOTQXtQp"
X Link 2025-05-08T23:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Could the US coal industry make a comeback The power source may be finding a second wind amid swelling demand for electricity https://www.ft.com/content/445a8546-f3f5-4465-9bc1-7ebb9fd7bb41 https://www.ft.com/content/445a8546-f3f5-4465-9bc1-7ebb9fd7bb41"
X Link 2025-05-08T18:48Z 106K followers, [----] engagements
"Showing again why they're best in the business $CEIX Jimmy Brock is a national treasure $CEIX https://t.co/I82Crqw9Rz Jimmy Brock is a national treasure $CEIX https://t.co/I82Crqw9Rz"
X Link 2024-08-08T13:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Republicans are supposed to be the party of free markets capitalism low taxes small government and deregulation. These tariffs are the exact opposite of all of this. Huge government overreach into private markets a tax on consumption enacted without Congress a higher regulatory burden and growth of government. I think its becoming more likely that Republicans eventually move against this plan. The pain threshold for Congress is likely lower than Trumps. Republicans were finally seeing momentum on their side and have been appealing to a younger generation. Now instead of the reciprocal tariffs"
X Link 2025-04-07T13:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Selected important quotes from $CXW call. A lot more detail on the call. At an inflection point and upside not appreciated by the market. "if you look at our staffing levels today and again they're elevated within our ICE facilities for this potential demand if you look at our midpoint as we just announced here in the last [--] hours for our guidance I think you could add probably another 10% on top of that if we were able to recalibrate our staffing based on actual population levels. So it's a different way. Probably about $0.12 $0.14 probably to keep me honest here Dave is what you could add"
X Link 2023-05-04T22:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$GEO what stands out to me"
X Link 2024-02-05T01:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Says the woman who dated and slept with a married power broker more than twice her age (29 & 60) in return for favor (including a BMW). She's been attracted to power like a moth to a flame her whole life. We know who Donald Trump is. He will stop at nothing to claim power for himself. We know who Donald Trump is. He will stop at nothing to claim power for himself"
X Link 2024-10-15T18:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"We know who Donald Trump is. He will stop at nothing to claim power for himself"
X Link 2024-10-15T15:24Z 20.9M followers, 5.3M engagements
"This is what the WH is posting and you're not long $GEO 🚁🚁🚁 https://t.co/6LSUCBcDQK 🚁🚁🚁 https://t.co/6LSUCBcDQK"
X Link 2025-09-06T16:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"This x1000. The whole industry is 'cheap' you pay for the management and capital allocation and $AMR continues to seperate itself from the pack along these lines. $CEIX as well on the high-quality thermal side. @ardaarkun That is hazardous to your heath. The $AMR mgmt team is so much better than the other [--]. When in doubt don't over think it. @mfwarder @dyer440 @aggresivevalue @ardaarkun That is hazardous to your heath. The $AMR mgmt team is so much better than the other [--]. When in doubt don't over think it. @mfwarder @dyer440 @aggresivevalue"
X Link 2024-02-26T17:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@ardaarkun That is hazardous to your heath. The $AMR mgmt team is so much better than the other [--]. When in doubt don't over think it. @mfwarder @dyer440 @aggresivevalue"
X Link 2024-02-26T16:48Z 52K followers, [----] engagements
"@dyer440 CEIX can likely pivot tons to export without an issue. Could even benefit from this and realize higher prices than what they would have should this happen. Lot of their domestic contracts take or pay too"
X Link 2023-08-27T19:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Sent a similar note to LPs last night but the satellite data is very interesting and something I missed. $HNRG Hallador Energy: Recent Filing To MISO Indicates A Datacenter Deal Is Imminent https://seekingalpha.com/article/4766240-hallador-energy-recent-filing-to-miso-indicates-a-datacenter-deal-is-imminentsource=Twitter https://seekingalpha.com/article/4766240-hallador-energy-recent-filing-to-miso-indicates-a-datacenter-deal-is-imminentsource=Twitter"
X Link 2025-03-13T14:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Agreed $HNRG I've got pretty high conviction that this power trade is inning 2-3 vs played out. Power has never been a meaningful bottleneck for compute. Now it is as essential of an ingredient as chip innovations. This is what I was carrying prior to liquidation: VST CCJ VG EQT BE VRT EQT I've got pretty high conviction that this power trade is inning 2-3 vs played out. Power has never been a meaningful bottleneck for compute. Now it is as essential of an ingredient as chip innovations. This is what I was carrying prior to liquidation: VST CCJ VG EQT BE VRT EQT"
X Link 2025-06-03T16:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"We'll see soon but if we go with a reciprocal tariff regime I think the most likely eventual off ramp is tariffs / trade barriers on US goods being reduced globally. We're the largest consumer economy in the world and the largest importer. Other countries have much more to lose than to gain with escalating tariffs against us. If one country does this and has their tariffs slashed to [--] they're now more competitive compared to competing countries still with tariffs. You could see a race to the bottom and slashing of trade restrictions and tariffs globally. If we don't go with reciprocal and"
X Link 2025-04-02T13:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"CANADA WILLING TO REMOVE TARIFFS IF US DOES: ONTARIO'S FORD"
X Link 2025-04-02T12:55Z 436.4K followers, 42.9K engagements
"$HNRG "If the Company is successful in executing definitive agreements and once the transaction commences it is expected to contract the majority of the Companys energy and capacity at prices higher than the forward curve for more than a decade." https://halladorenergy.com/news-events/news/news-details/2025/Hallador-Energy-Signs-Exclusive-Commitment-Agreement-with-Global-Data-Center-Developer/default.aspx https://halladorenergy.com/news-events/news/news-details/2025/Hallador-Energy-Signs-Exclusive-Commitment-Agreement-with-Global-Data-Center-Developer/default.aspx"
X Link 2025-01-07T14:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"If $ELF doesn't capitalize on their international success by ramping up their expansion I think its possible someone else could do it for them. A global competitor who they've been eating market share from could acquire the company and use their infrastructure to quickly expand globally. Would provide a long growth runway to the legacy acquirer at an attractive valuation and take out a competitor that's been eating into your business domestically before they do too much damage internationally. $ELF No new country expansion announcements in two quarters now. The fact they have growth slowing"
X Link 2025-02-07T16:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$ELF No new country expansion announcements in two quarters now. The fact they have growth slowing in existing markets and aren't pushing international more with the pent-up demand and success they've seen in new geographies is inexcusable. Makes no sense not to accelerate this expansion if legacy channels are maturing. International is the incremental growth driver and its a big question mark that needs to be better communicated. If they announced a couple new countries on the call I'd have much more confidence in growth over the next year and there would likely be a different market"
X Link 2025-02-06T23:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"This. Doesn't take too much if you bootstrap the launch and are diligent about keeping costs low. Results bring attention. Focus more on returns and less on raising and things fall in place"
X Link 2024-01-28T22:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"This double standard in how to respond only applies when Jews are killed and are the ones responding. I don't recall outrage for the West and speaking of innocents when we bombed Europe in WW2. We killed hundreds of thousands of civilians in Japan to avoid a costly incursion that would cost more US lives. We've indiscriminately bombed countless places since. No only when Jews are killed is the response unacceptable. "How Israel does this matters" US Secretary of State Antony Blinken says Israel "has the right indeed the obligation" to defend itself but adds that "democracies distinguish"
X Link 2023-10-12T12:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
""How Israel does this matters" US Secretary of State Antony Blinken says Israel "has the right indeed the obligation" to defend itself but adds that "democracies distinguish ourselves from terrorists by striving for a different standard" https://trib.al/iqPYRVN https://trib.al/iqPYRVN"
X Link 2023-10-12T11:49Z 2M followers, 24.2K engagements
"70% Republicans sweep up to 47% on polymarket. No one owns enough $GEO in that scenario. Republicans sweep up to 47% on polymarket. No one owns enough $GEO in that scenario"
X Link 2024-11-06T02:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Republicans sweep up to 47% on polymarket. No one owns enough $GEO in that scenario"
X Link 2024-10-24T13:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Agree but I would add that the market wizards interviews with Jamie Mai and John Bender were much more helpful and eye-opening to me. A book can make you money. "You Can Be A stock Market Genius" by Joel Greenblatt for example. The chapter on LEAPs alone is priceless. and you can get it for $2.99 on kindle. WTF A book can make you money. "You Can Be A stock Market Genius" by Joel Greenblatt for example. The chapter on LEAPs alone is priceless. and you can get it for $2.99 on kindle. WTF"
X Link 2024-10-03T14:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"A book can make you money. "You Can Be A stock Market Genius" by Joel Greenblatt for example. The chapter on LEAPs alone is priceless. and you can get it for $2.99 on kindle. WTF Scroll less read more. But what to read Learn to gain an edge with Alix soon 👇 Scroll less read more. But what to read Learn to gain an edge with Alix soon 👇"
X Link 2024-10-03T13:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@EnergyCredit1 @WTIBull $CEIX just now plowing FCF into buybacks should make that list too as much as I wanted them to previously. No hate from me for $AMR buybacks though they can just continue to carpet bomb shares with their FCF. And credit to BTU management That's tough let's see how it goes"
X Link 2023-05-31T18:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$ELF High margin high growth business with a long growth runway going for a reasonable valuation. Theyre an asset light company similar in business model to Coke. Theyve been taking a patient approach with their international expansion which seems to have been the correct strategy judging by their success in entering new markets in a dominant position. Only in a handful of countries right now with another few planned they have a long international growth runway ahead. They dont want to grow so fast that their existing partners suffer but should growth in their existing markets slow theyll"
X Link 2024-09-12T13:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Largely agree but the sell off doesn't surprise me. Wasn't long ago this crashed into single digits from deepseek fears always been an extremely volatile name and now a bit more uncertain. Negotiations on a deal and discussions on an extension to the exclusivity agreement are still ongoing so I dont think this is a setback in negotiations as much as their counterparty knowing they wont close in time and not wanting to pay the $2M coming due. It makes the timeline of a deal more uncertain but allows them to engage third parties that they received unsolicited offers from sooner. Im sure they"
X Link 2025-05-23T13:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"This news on $HNRG is a nothing burger imo and I expect the Co to announce a new exclusivity over the coming weeks. I believe this to be the case based on the following: 1) During its Q1 earnings call just last week mgmt stated that the counterparty is the one who requested an exclusivity extension. This obviously indicates the counterparty very much wants to get a deal done 2) The counterparty would have had to make a $2m payment to HNRG at the beginning of June under the current agreement. My guess is the counterparty knew it wasn't going to get to the finish line and decided to terminate"
X Link 2025-05-22T23:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$AMR committed to buybacks and likely bought back 25%+ of MC this year. 15% owned by insiders another 75ish by institutions. Likely to keep buybacks at similar level over the next year where are the shares going to come from Could be an interesting squeeze next few yrs"
X Link 2022-12-30T20:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Starboard's presentation from today. $FLR starts on slide [--]. Seem to be supporting a spin off of the $SMR stake. 2025_Active-Passive_Investor_Summit_-_Starboard_Value_LP.pdf https://share.google/TkqLYxsMc4TErEHIB https://share.google/TkqLYxsMc4TErEHIB"
X Link 2025-10-21T18:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$GEO ICE moves to shackle some [------] immigrants with GPS ankle monitors https://www.washingtonpost.com/immigration/2025/07/24/ice-check-in-ankle-monitor-immigrants/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/immigration/2025/07/24/ice-check-in-ankle-monitor-immigrants/"
X Link 2025-07-24T11:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Eating market share. Tracked US sales still growing 18% while competitors bleed. I think a doubling of US sales over the next 4-5 years is possible but the growth story from here is international. Early days. Just had their largest retail launch ever in [----] stores in Germany this month the success of that is more important to me than their US sales growth this quarter and should put them comfortably over their guidance. They've been taking a measured approach in their international expansion but should overall growth slow I think we see that accelerate. $ELF $ELF It's still too early to buy"
X Link 2024-09-30T20:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$ELF It's still too early to buy the pullback according to Morgan Stanley. ELF has lost 43% during the past [--] months. "We're getting closer but we don't see enough visibility to turn positive yet." PT lowered to $139 from $184"
X Link 2024-09-30T19:09Z 19.5K followers, [----] engagements
"$CEIX Power Plant Payouts on Biggest US Grid to Rise to Record (Bloomberg) - Auction will help shape electric mix for big part of US - PJM grid spans [--] states from Illinois to New Jersey $VST $CEG https://t.co/aAVViGUZsr Power Plant Payouts on Biggest US Grid to Rise to Record (Bloomberg) - Auction will help shape electric mix for big part of US - PJM grid spans [--] states from Illinois to New Jersey $VST $CEG https://t.co/aAVViGUZsr"
X Link 2024-07-30T22:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Power Plant Payouts on Biggest US Grid to Rise to Record (Bloomberg) - Auction will help shape electric mix for big part of US - PJM grid spans [--] states from Illinois to New Jersey $VST $CEG"
X Link 2024-07-30T20:27Z 92.3K followers, 16.8K engagements
"Big tech seemingly dependent on the monetization of ai to justify their valuations. Earnings Season to Test Investors Faith in Big Tech Stocks https://www.wsj.com/articles/earnings-season-to-test-investors-faith-in-big-tech-stocks-a16dc89e https://www.wsj.com/articles/earnings-season-to-test-investors-faith-in-big-tech-stocks-a16dc89e"
X Link 2024-07-07T12:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$FLR $SMR big news https://www.nuscalepower.com/press-releases/2025/fluor-and-nuscale-announce-agreement-regarding-stake-monetization https://www.nuscalepower.com/press-releases/2025/fluor-and-nuscale-announce-agreement-regarding-stake-monetization"
X Link 2025-11-06T22:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Market coming around to a deal being a 'when' more than an 'if' $HNRG Sent a similar note to LPs last night but the satellite data is very interesting and something I missed. $HNRG Hallador Energy: Recent Filing To MISO Indicates A Datacenter Deal Is Imminent https://t.co/S2PLKCn6F9 Sent a similar note to LPs last night but the satellite data is very interesting and something I missed. $HNRG Hallador Energy: Recent Filing To MISO Indicates A Datacenter Deal Is Imminent https://t.co/S2PLKCn6F9"
X Link 2025-05-13T14:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@dyer440 Thanks Mohnish"
X Link 2023-08-11T19:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing