[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.] #  @ShaleTier7 Michael Spyker Michael Spyker posts on X about gas, ai, canada, future the most. They currently have XXXXX followers and XXX posts still getting attention that total XXXXXX engagements in the last XX hours. ### Engagements: XXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::1555145534951854080/interactions)  - X Week XXXXXXX +62% - X Month XXXXXXX -XX% - X Months XXXXXXXXX +11,615% - X Year XXXXXXXXX +34,569% ### Mentions: XX [#](/creator/twitter::1555145534951854080/posts_active)  - X Week XX -XX% - X Month XX -XX% - X Months XXX +1,038% - X Year XXX +2,431% ### Followers: XXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::1555145534951854080/followers)  - X Week XXXXX +65% - X Month XXXXX -XXXX% - X Months XXXXX +536% ### CreatorRank: XXXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::1555145534951854080/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [finance](/list/finance) [countries](/list/countries) [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) [currencies](/list/currencies) [stocks](/list/stocks) [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations) **Social topic influence** [gas](/topic/gas) #624, [ai](/topic/ai), [canada](/topic/canada), [future](/topic/future), [cash flow](/topic/cash-flow) #363, [money](/topic/money), [if you](/topic/if-you), [$arx](/topic/$arx), [acquisition](/topic/acquisition), [$vg](/topic/$vg) **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@citrini7](/creator/undefined) [@ctrlopenbracket](/creator/undefined) [@teddygambino](/creator/undefined) [@joshyoung1](/creator/undefined) [@cannyfuturist](/creator/undefined) [@modelsnadderall](/creator/undefined) [@nicequarterguys](/creator/undefined) [@defisurfer808](/creator/undefined) [@cdnengyanalysis](/creator/undefined) [@rbl1973](/creator/undefined) [@philmickelson](/creator/undefined) [@billro1000](/creator/undefined) [@cashcompounding](/creator/undefined) [@war527](/creator/undefined) [@knlcbd](/creator/undefined) [@rockcreekfreak](/creator/undefined) [@jresourceinvest](/creator/undefined) [@albertagarbage](/creator/undefined) [@investscletus](/creator/undefined) [@grok](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Accelerant Holdings (ARX)](/topic/$arx) [Vonage Holdings Corporation (VG)](/topic/$vg) [Veren Inc. (VRN)](/topic/$vrn) [Harry Murs (MURS)](/topic/$murs) [Decentr (DEC)](/topic/$dec) [Ovintiv, Inc. (OVV)](/topic/$ovv) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours "$ARX 2025 guidance (pre acquisition) was 107MBbls/d of condensate and their 2026 guidance is 107.5MBbls/d of condensate (after acquiring 11MBbls/d at Kakwa). hmm" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaleTier7/status/1986556082056274145) 2025-11-06T22:07Z 2382 followers, 6420 engagements "This guy is comparing Venture Global's gross sales/revenue to Shell's net income Lord give me strength 😂😂😂😂😂😂" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaleTier7/status/1993839356151463971) 2025-11-27T00:28Z 2382 followers, 6356 engagements "@cubedpermian $WCP + $VRN = two greatest asset bases assembled post 2020 and it's not even close. Will go down in history as the best string of transactions outside of the oil sands without a doubt" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaleTier7/status/1981168914081128586) 2025-10-23T01:20Z 2304 followers, XXX engagements "Kevin is particularly challenged at understanding ideas that are foreign to him -- in this case the Montney so in a fairly earnest manner I'm going to lay it out for the crowd. Take North America on the whole. North America likes consuming and exporting natural gas but we don't have unlimited natural gas. At one point the United States will need to turn to Canada to seek more natural gas inventory. That's a given. The wall of demand that's coming from the US L48 is fairly large and their own plays can't answer all of it not for the duration that they want (an LNG terminal is 20-40 years of" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaleTier7/status/1983552562684178745) 2025-10-29T15:12Z 2352 followers, 20.7K engagements "Canadian securities regulators today" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaleTier7/status/1984101356748337188) 2025-10-31T03:33Z 2332 followers, 3327 engagements "27 MTPA Plaquemines XX MTPA CP2 XX MTPA Calcasieu Pass Disclosed cost of $28Bn for all of CP2 and currently $8Bn spent. $20Bn more capital. Current debt is $XX Bn so $50Bn debt give or take (ignores minor interim cashflow but thats paid out via dividends). XX MTPA of capacity is XX Bcf/d at XX% utilization is XXXXX Tcf a year of exports. $50Bn of debt at XXXX% is $3.875Bn a year in financing charges and all-in corporate midstream shipping and liquefaction operating costs are $0.40/Mcf and at XXXXX Tcf/yr thats $1.386Bn/yr So all in to service your debt pay your people and run your business" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaleTier7/status/1996238653803450680) 2025-12-03T15:22Z 2382 followers, 1562 engagements "Processing through Keyera Rimbey is such a hack for BTE Pembina IP rates -- it's like IP90 1000bbls/d liquids oh but XX% of those liquids are worthless" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaleTier7/status/1977771803553710352) 2025-10-13T16:21Z 2364 followers, 2379 engagements "It often does amuse me that one of the best gas assets in Canada is owned by some random US SMID cap -- Murphy. $MUR's Tupper and Swan Lake asset is consistently pumping out wells that will recover 10-15 Bcf of gas and some as high as XX Bcf of gas These are impressive wells and competitive with the Haynesville which struggles with fracture closures limiting EUR. In the maps and charts below I am showing Murphy's Montney position which has ample inventory. I am also showing well cumulative gas production in the second chart. For control in the comparison I used Peyto's wells while $PEY has" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaleTier7/status/1980438963795190093) 2025-10-21T01:00Z 2355 followers, 6074 engagements "Why is $DEC putting the short thesis on their slide deck cover" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaleTier7/status/1985460958907810003) 2025-11-03T21:35Z 2355 followers, 2974 engagements "$OVV BUYING $NVA SELLING ANADARKO" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaleTier7/status/1985829692839248142) 2025-11-04T22:01Z 2355 followers, 7733 engagements "@CouldBeMistaken @TeddyGambino Thanks for reading. Teddy is my "North Star" on this trade" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaleTier7/status/1992668337017618597) 2025-11-23T18:55Z 2357 followers, XXX engagements "You want to really teach them a lesson about compounding Give every kid $1250 of pre-petition Chesapeake second-liens and Linn Energy unsecuredes. Then theyll not only get a feel for money management and how valuable compounding *can* be but really appreciate how fkn fast it can blow up" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaleTier7/status/1996586350750183679) 2025-12-04T14:24Z 2356 followers, 4341 engagements "This is such a cancer. Willing to have my mind changed but what are the good externalities of being able to "bet" on every single difference in opinion Healthy interactions can be positive-sum. People learn from each other respectfully disagree come to see opinions differently. This dogshit turns every interaction into zero-sum. The equivalent of someone saying "why don't you just short it bro" when you talk badly about a stock. It erodes any nuance any incentives to find common ground - and naturally pits people against each other. If I disagree with you now I want you to lose and I can now" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaleTier7/status/1996730602029269151) 2025-12-04T23:57Z 2357 followers, 8757 engagements "@WAR527 We will make 10x the money next year as we did this year" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaleTier7/status/1997804682342011172) 2025-12-07T23:05Z 2365 followers, XXX engagements "My favourite thing about Venture Global is you can calculate how their operating leverage could potentially destroy them with XXX seconds a sticky note and a XX digit calculator but somehow the bulls refuse to do this math. Dont worry Ill do it for you below" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaleTier7/status/1996047062862115068) 2025-12-03T02:41Z 2367 followers, 195.6K engagements "I think it's reasonable to say that they'll average $1.72Bn a year in unlevered FCF for the next XX years. Capital efficiency and commodity prices will normalize over a long period. That's $21Bn and the PV11.5% of that is $13Bn. Where its EV sits at today. So you're paying very little for upside that they've proven they can deliver" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaleTier7/status/1996278373186974119) 2025-12-03T18:00Z 2371 followers, XXX engagements "Ya better put. Mike Sabal will syndicate $5MM with a Southern Idaho Credit Union if it means he can add XXXXX MMTPA of capacity. That's what I mean until the taps shut off that are supplying capital to build demand projects demand projects will continue to get built like a mfer. So what's a harder bet US upstream producers growing (very hard to bet against) or US capital markets continuing to supply infinity money to dumb things that don't make sense (arguably equally as hard to bet against)" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaleTier7/status/1997785106769990011) 2025-12-07T21:47Z 2367 followers, XXX engagements "@WMitchell618 I was just thinking that $3.77T GOOG should buy $0.17T NEE" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaleTier7/status/1998097397667574094) 2025-12-08T18:28Z 2370 followers, XX engagements "@SandBrandyn I'm not really commenting on single equities just an observation generally. Hard to say the GPU decline curve is overblown given we're not sure where it lands; 3-5 years is what credit providers are underwriting so that seems fair until proven otherwise" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaleTier7/status/1998107863684907020) 2025-12-08T19:10Z 2370 followers, XX engagements "This is why natural gas will continue to be the power of choice when we're still scaling AI up and fairly uncertain about what the future looks like. Gas and solar BTM generation have similar economic costs per unit up to 80TWh generated (image 2) but because gas runs around the clock it reaches 80TWh far faster than solar almost X years faster (image 1). So while nobody is still certain installing gas generation today means in X years for every MWh the BTM plant has generated the cost will have been $XX. It takes solar XX years to get there. And before you say add batteries it means power" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaleTier7/status/1994825141814268244) 2025-11-29T17:45Z 2382 followers, 33.5K engagements "The natural gas thesis is actually so simple. And Im not using whether related volatility to get ahead of myself here. The data centre guys will take every single molecule up to $5-7/MMBtu. The LNG exporters (international buyers) will take every single molecule up to $5-6/MMBtu. Both are building infrastructure like the others dont exist so there is competition for supply now there has never in the history of shale gas been competition for supply. If you think Henry Hub is going to $10-20/MMBtu youre an idiot. If you think the AI data centre thing is just a bubble youre an idiot. And if you" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaleTier7/status/1997010374533808399) 2025-12-05T18:29Z 2382 followers, 179.7K engagements "Franklin could count by twos and tie his shoes. He bought up winter gas on polar vortex news. He thought 'this time is different' levering up But soon the temps warmed and AI enthusiasm faded Then Goldman called "Franklin you're getting liquidated"" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaleTier7/status/1997406074207445482) 2025-12-06T20:41Z 2382 followers, 39.1K engagements "Okay so very simply where are there 15000 locations that will do XXX Bcf/1000 And dont say Marcellus/Deep Permian as thats already answering XX Bcf/d on its own. There are no holes in my coverage I used existing plays to benchmark how far off your implied assumptions are. If you can point to even 5000 undedicated locations that arent being used to maintain existing production Ill gladly accept Im wrong. Youre exactly right you need price strength and $3-4 isnt going to cut it. Thats $XXXX as you say and probably $X in reality which is what Ive asserted. You began by saying There are very few" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaleTier7/status/1997748917207773489) 2025-12-07T19:23Z 2373 followers, 1899 engagements "And I appreciate you are saying old designs need $XXXX but if you could also point me towards the PE group or PubCo thats growing multiple Bcf/d on a $X deck and underwriting full improvement and no alpha that would be good. If the old designs need $XXXX and work at $X (which I still disagree with) then whoevers buying it today is almost certainly seeking some sort of return on taking advantage of that spread. Its like the deep Haynesville near the Nach fault zone might break even on paper at $XXXX but tell me whos spending $200mm on a pad at $XXXX. Yes I agree lots turns on at $4-ish in the" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaleTier7/status/1997750136391311575) 2025-12-07T19:28Z 2382 followers, 10.9K engagements "The real difference is the mechanism of decline. The cashflow for both declines rapidly and is a function of (output * market price) but for shale producers it's the output declining and market price staying reasonably constant on a long horizon. For neoclouds it's the market price declining while output is more constant. Until we're at a point where market price is constant for 5-8 years (not hard to imagine one certain hardware specs are achieved like optical C2C HBM5) and the business is then direct to enterprise -- but that's a risky gamble to take when over that same time period the" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaleTier7/status/1998112451427270995) 2025-12-08T19:28Z 2373 followers, XX engagements "@lundeen_ne All this tells me is theres validity to the theory that cost converges towards value" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaleTier7/status/1998125087032271142) 2025-12-08T20:18Z 2382 followers, XXX engagements "Congratulations to all the new "long term investors" in natural gas. Welcome 🥳" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaleTier7/status/1998127613911736692) 2025-12-08T20:28Z 2382 followers, 13.4K engagements "WHO SAID THERE WAS NO RETURN ON THE $X TRILLION IN DATA CENTRE CAPEX" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaleTier7/status/1998453003611730366) 2025-12-09T18:01Z 2382 followers, XXX engagements "It feels very obvious that the people that are going to get wrecked by AI over-investment are companies making massive capital investments at the thought of "serving AI" that logically have no place in the long-run. Thinking you have earn an above average return on data centers (IREN et al) is dumb that's a cost of capital play in the long run. Retooling your supply chain to build aeroderivative turbines is dumb it's not the lowest cost gas-fired generation in the long run" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaleTier7/status/1998500494860509694) 2025-12-09T21:10Z 2382 followers, 2581 engagements "I find that DeepSeek is the best way to get data on China as an English speaker. It's hard to browse Baidu with translate on but prompting DeepSeek (English or Chinese) then translating via Gemini et al is extremely efficient especially via API where you can have it think and output extremely long lists" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaleTier7/status/1998537524839424216) 2025-12-09T23:37Z 2382 followers, 2595 engagements "This is like me saying -- "in every way dating Sydney Sweeney from a first principles perspective are superior to being single" I mean it's true but boy there are some fairly robust embedded assumptions in there" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaleTier7/status/1998568094680195128) 2025-12-10T01:39Z 2382 followers, 4053 engagements "you are here #natgas" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaleTier7/status/1996986920858272108) 2025-12-05T16:55Z 2382 followers, 8829 engagements "@DeFiSurfer808 Great question -- one you should still discuss with a registered investment advisor My timeline risk tolerance sector understanding and conviction is almost certainly different than yours" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaleTier7/status/1998583274541597048) 2025-12-10T02:39Z 2382 followers, XX engagements
[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]
@ShaleTier7 Michael Spyker
Michael Spyker posts on X about gas, ai, canada, future the most. They currently have XXXXX followers and XXX posts still getting attention that total XXXXXX engagements in the last XX hours.
Engagements: XXXXXX #
- X Week XXXXXXX +62%
- X Month XXXXXXX -XX%
- X Months XXXXXXXXX +11,615%
- X Year XXXXXXXXX +34,569%
Mentions: XX #
- X Week XX -XX%
- X Month XX -XX%
- X Months XXX +1,038%
- X Year XXX +2,431%
Followers: XXXXX #
- X Week XXXXX +65%
- X Month XXXXX -XXXX%
- X Months XXXXX +536%
CreatorRank: XXXXXXX #
Social Influence
Social category influence finance countries cryptocurrencies currencies stocks technology brands travel destinations
Social topic influence gas #624, ai, canada, future, cash flow #363, money, if you, $arx, acquisition, $vg
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @citrini7 @ctrlopenbracket @teddygambino @joshyoung1 @cannyfuturist @modelsnadderall @nicequarterguys @defisurfer808 @cdnengyanalysis @rbl1973 @philmickelson @billro1000 @cashcompounding @war527 @knlcbd @rockcreekfreak @jresourceinvest @albertagarbage @investscletus @grok
Top assets mentioned Accelerant Holdings (ARX) Vonage Holdings Corporation (VG) Veren Inc. (VRN) Harry Murs (MURS) Decentr (DEC) Ovintiv, Inc. (OVV)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours
"$ARX 2025 guidance (pre acquisition) was 107MBbls/d of condensate and their 2026 guidance is 107.5MBbls/d of condensate (after acquiring 11MBbls/d at Kakwa). hmm"
X Link 2025-11-06T22:07Z 2382 followers, 6420 engagements
"This guy is comparing Venture Global's gross sales/revenue to Shell's net income Lord give me strength 😂😂😂😂😂😂"
X Link 2025-11-27T00:28Z 2382 followers, 6356 engagements
"@cubedpermian $WCP + $VRN = two greatest asset bases assembled post 2020 and it's not even close. Will go down in history as the best string of transactions outside of the oil sands without a doubt"
X Link 2025-10-23T01:20Z 2304 followers, XXX engagements
"Kevin is particularly challenged at understanding ideas that are foreign to him -- in this case the Montney so in a fairly earnest manner I'm going to lay it out for the crowd. Take North America on the whole. North America likes consuming and exporting natural gas but we don't have unlimited natural gas. At one point the United States will need to turn to Canada to seek more natural gas inventory. That's a given. The wall of demand that's coming from the US L48 is fairly large and their own plays can't answer all of it not for the duration that they want (an LNG terminal is 20-40 years of"
X Link 2025-10-29T15:12Z 2352 followers, 20.7K engagements
"Canadian securities regulators today"
X Link 2025-10-31T03:33Z 2332 followers, 3327 engagements
"27 MTPA Plaquemines XX MTPA CP2 XX MTPA Calcasieu Pass Disclosed cost of $28Bn for all of CP2 and currently $8Bn spent. $20Bn more capital. Current debt is $XX Bn so $50Bn debt give or take (ignores minor interim cashflow but thats paid out via dividends). XX MTPA of capacity is XX Bcf/d at XX% utilization is XXXXX Tcf a year of exports. $50Bn of debt at XXXX% is $3.875Bn a year in financing charges and all-in corporate midstream shipping and liquefaction operating costs are $0.40/Mcf and at XXXXX Tcf/yr thats $1.386Bn/yr So all in to service your debt pay your people and run your business"
X Link 2025-12-03T15:22Z 2382 followers, 1562 engagements
"Processing through Keyera Rimbey is such a hack for BTE Pembina IP rates -- it's like IP90 1000bbls/d liquids oh but XX% of those liquids are worthless"
X Link 2025-10-13T16:21Z 2364 followers, 2379 engagements
"It often does amuse me that one of the best gas assets in Canada is owned by some random US SMID cap -- Murphy. $MUR's Tupper and Swan Lake asset is consistently pumping out wells that will recover 10-15 Bcf of gas and some as high as XX Bcf of gas These are impressive wells and competitive with the Haynesville which struggles with fracture closures limiting EUR. In the maps and charts below I am showing Murphy's Montney position which has ample inventory. I am also showing well cumulative gas production in the second chart. For control in the comparison I used Peyto's wells while $PEY has"
X Link 2025-10-21T01:00Z 2355 followers, 6074 engagements
"Why is $DEC putting the short thesis on their slide deck cover"
X Link 2025-11-03T21:35Z 2355 followers, 2974 engagements
"$OVV BUYING $NVA SELLING ANADARKO"
X Link 2025-11-04T22:01Z 2355 followers, 7733 engagements
"@CouldBeMistaken @TeddyGambino Thanks for reading. Teddy is my "North Star" on this trade"
X Link 2025-11-23T18:55Z 2357 followers, XXX engagements
"You want to really teach them a lesson about compounding Give every kid $1250 of pre-petition Chesapeake second-liens and Linn Energy unsecuredes. Then theyll not only get a feel for money management and how valuable compounding can be but really appreciate how fkn fast it can blow up"
X Link 2025-12-04T14:24Z 2356 followers, 4341 engagements
"This is such a cancer. Willing to have my mind changed but what are the good externalities of being able to "bet" on every single difference in opinion Healthy interactions can be positive-sum. People learn from each other respectfully disagree come to see opinions differently. This dogshit turns every interaction into zero-sum. The equivalent of someone saying "why don't you just short it bro" when you talk badly about a stock. It erodes any nuance any incentives to find common ground - and naturally pits people against each other. If I disagree with you now I want you to lose and I can now"
X Link 2025-12-04T23:57Z 2357 followers, 8757 engagements
"@WAR527 We will make 10x the money next year as we did this year"
X Link 2025-12-07T23:05Z 2365 followers, XXX engagements
"My favourite thing about Venture Global is you can calculate how their operating leverage could potentially destroy them with XXX seconds a sticky note and a XX digit calculator but somehow the bulls refuse to do this math. Dont worry Ill do it for you below"
X Link 2025-12-03T02:41Z 2367 followers, 195.6K engagements
"I think it's reasonable to say that they'll average $1.72Bn a year in unlevered FCF for the next XX years. Capital efficiency and commodity prices will normalize over a long period. That's $21Bn and the PV11.5% of that is $13Bn. Where its EV sits at today. So you're paying very little for upside that they've proven they can deliver"
X Link 2025-12-03T18:00Z 2371 followers, XXX engagements
"Ya better put. Mike Sabal will syndicate $5MM with a Southern Idaho Credit Union if it means he can add XXXXX MMTPA of capacity. That's what I mean until the taps shut off that are supplying capital to build demand projects demand projects will continue to get built like a mfer. So what's a harder bet US upstream producers growing (very hard to bet against) or US capital markets continuing to supply infinity money to dumb things that don't make sense (arguably equally as hard to bet against)"
X Link 2025-12-07T21:47Z 2367 followers, XXX engagements
"@WMitchell618 I was just thinking that $3.77T GOOG should buy $0.17T NEE"
X Link 2025-12-08T18:28Z 2370 followers, XX engagements
"@SandBrandyn I'm not really commenting on single equities just an observation generally. Hard to say the GPU decline curve is overblown given we're not sure where it lands; 3-5 years is what credit providers are underwriting so that seems fair until proven otherwise"
X Link 2025-12-08T19:10Z 2370 followers, XX engagements
"This is why natural gas will continue to be the power of choice when we're still scaling AI up and fairly uncertain about what the future looks like. Gas and solar BTM generation have similar economic costs per unit up to 80TWh generated (image 2) but because gas runs around the clock it reaches 80TWh far faster than solar almost X years faster (image 1). So while nobody is still certain installing gas generation today means in X years for every MWh the BTM plant has generated the cost will have been $XX. It takes solar XX years to get there. And before you say add batteries it means power"
X Link 2025-11-29T17:45Z 2382 followers, 33.5K engagements
"The natural gas thesis is actually so simple. And Im not using whether related volatility to get ahead of myself here. The data centre guys will take every single molecule up to $5-7/MMBtu. The LNG exporters (international buyers) will take every single molecule up to $5-6/MMBtu. Both are building infrastructure like the others dont exist so there is competition for supply now there has never in the history of shale gas been competition for supply. If you think Henry Hub is going to $10-20/MMBtu youre an idiot. If you think the AI data centre thing is just a bubble youre an idiot. And if you"
X Link 2025-12-05T18:29Z 2382 followers, 179.7K engagements
"Franklin could count by twos and tie his shoes. He bought up winter gas on polar vortex news. He thought 'this time is different' levering up But soon the temps warmed and AI enthusiasm faded Then Goldman called "Franklin you're getting liquidated""
X Link 2025-12-06T20:41Z 2382 followers, 39.1K engagements
"Okay so very simply where are there 15000 locations that will do XXX Bcf/1000 And dont say Marcellus/Deep Permian as thats already answering XX Bcf/d on its own. There are no holes in my coverage I used existing plays to benchmark how far off your implied assumptions are. If you can point to even 5000 undedicated locations that arent being used to maintain existing production Ill gladly accept Im wrong. Youre exactly right you need price strength and $3-4 isnt going to cut it. Thats $XXXX as you say and probably $X in reality which is what Ive asserted. You began by saying There are very few"
X Link 2025-12-07T19:23Z 2373 followers, 1899 engagements
"And I appreciate you are saying old designs need $XXXX but if you could also point me towards the PE group or PubCo thats growing multiple Bcf/d on a $X deck and underwriting full improvement and no alpha that would be good. If the old designs need $XXXX and work at $X (which I still disagree with) then whoevers buying it today is almost certainly seeking some sort of return on taking advantage of that spread. Its like the deep Haynesville near the Nach fault zone might break even on paper at $XXXX but tell me whos spending $200mm on a pad at $XXXX. Yes I agree lots turns on at $4-ish in the"
X Link 2025-12-07T19:28Z 2382 followers, 10.9K engagements
"The real difference is the mechanism of decline. The cashflow for both declines rapidly and is a function of (output * market price) but for shale producers it's the output declining and market price staying reasonably constant on a long horizon. For neoclouds it's the market price declining while output is more constant. Until we're at a point where market price is constant for 5-8 years (not hard to imagine one certain hardware specs are achieved like optical C2C HBM5) and the business is then direct to enterprise -- but that's a risky gamble to take when over that same time period the"
X Link 2025-12-08T19:28Z 2373 followers, XX engagements
"@lundeen_ne All this tells me is theres validity to the theory that cost converges towards value"
X Link 2025-12-08T20:18Z 2382 followers, XXX engagements
"Congratulations to all the new "long term investors" in natural gas. Welcome 🥳"
X Link 2025-12-08T20:28Z 2382 followers, 13.4K engagements
"WHO SAID THERE WAS NO RETURN ON THE $X TRILLION IN DATA CENTRE CAPEX"
X Link 2025-12-09T18:01Z 2382 followers, XXX engagements
"It feels very obvious that the people that are going to get wrecked by AI over-investment are companies making massive capital investments at the thought of "serving AI" that logically have no place in the long-run. Thinking you have earn an above average return on data centers (IREN et al) is dumb that's a cost of capital play in the long run. Retooling your supply chain to build aeroderivative turbines is dumb it's not the lowest cost gas-fired generation in the long run"
X Link 2025-12-09T21:10Z 2382 followers, 2581 engagements
"I find that DeepSeek is the best way to get data on China as an English speaker. It's hard to browse Baidu with translate on but prompting DeepSeek (English or Chinese) then translating via Gemini et al is extremely efficient especially via API where you can have it think and output extremely long lists"
X Link 2025-12-09T23:37Z 2382 followers, 2595 engagements
"This is like me saying -- "in every way dating Sydney Sweeney from a first principles perspective are superior to being single" I mean it's true but boy there are some fairly robust embedded assumptions in there"
X Link 2025-12-10T01:39Z 2382 followers, 4053 engagements
"you are here #natgas"
X Link 2025-12-05T16:55Z 2382 followers, 8829 engagements
"@DeFiSurfer808 Great question -- one you should still discuss with a registered investment advisor My timeline risk tolerance sector understanding and conviction is almost certainly different than yours"
X Link 2025-12-10T02:39Z 2382 followers, XX engagements