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# ![@JZ281C Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::1830430654674157568.png) @JZ281C 1JZ

1JZ posts on X about china, countries, inflation, money the most. They currently have XXXXX followers and 1536 posts still getting attention that total XXXXXX engagements in the last XX hours.

### Engagements: XXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::1830430654674157568/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1830430654674157568/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- X Week XXXXXXX -XX%
- X Month XXXXXXXXX +154%
- X Months XXXXXXXXX +67%
- X Year XXXXXXXXX +2,739%

### Mentions: XX [#](/creator/twitter::1830430654674157568/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1830430654674157568/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- X Week XXX +69%
- X Month XXX -X%
- X Months XXXXX -XX%
- X Year XXXXX +744%

### Followers: XXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::1830430654674157568/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1830430654674157568/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- X Week XXXXX +6.30%
- X Month XXXXX +13%
- X Months XXXXX +66%
- X Year XXXXX +1,598%

### CreatorRank: XXXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::1830430654674157568/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1830430654674157568/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence [#](/creator/twitter::1830430654674157568/influence)
---

**Social category influence**
[countries](/list/countries)  XXXX% [finance](/list/finance)  XXXX% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  XXXX% [currencies](/list/currencies)  XXXX% [stocks](/list/stocks)  XXXX% [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations)  XXX% [agencies](/list/agencies)  XXXX% [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands)  XXXX%

**Social topic influence**
[china](/topic/china) #1444, [countries](/topic/countries) #2184, [inflation](/topic/inflation) #384, [money](/topic/money) 0.52%, [south korea](/topic/south-korea) #431, [rates](/topic/rates) #1580, [asml](/topic/asml) #29, [japan](/topic/japan) #2495, [faster](/topic/faster) #720, [deflation](/topic/deflation) #19

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@ijkta1619](/creator/undefined) [@adamcopela](/creator/undefined) [@jsnorzy](/creator/undefined) [@teortaxestex](/creator/undefined) [@why__knot](/creator/undefined) [@yieldsearcher](/creator/undefined) [@randomusernamw](/creator/undefined) [@ivanpmasli](/creator/undefined) [@deviousscorpios](/creator/undefined) [@kuittinenpetri](/creator/undefined) [@whyknot](/creator/undefined) [@srinivasan73101](/creator/undefined) [@orlovprovince](/creator/undefined) [@kandiahamman](/creator/undefined) [@kumarmayankjha1](/creator/undefined) [@spicygaullism](/creator/undefined) [@policytensor](/creator/undefined) [@johndoe34631032](/creator/undefined) [@pastynome](/creator/undefined) [@apisith84](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[IBM (IBM)](/topic/ibm) [Boeing Co (BA)](/topic/$ba)
### Top Social Posts [#](/creator/twitter::1830430654674157568/posts)
---
Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours

"Allocation of so much household savings to equities means that in the event of a major stock market crash the destruction of household balance sheets will be equivalent to 1930s style bank failures without deposit insurance"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1976195307043258534) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-09T07:57Z 4635 followers, 7396 engagements


"I actually see ASML as the weak link in terms of maintaining Western dominance in semiconductors. ASML's product is low volume and almost artisanal"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1979317993478983841) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-17T22:45Z 4635 followers, 6654 engagements


"This map isn't a Chinese Century it's nothing ever happens. South Korea remains blue in a Chinese Century That would be like US never expanding beyond the XX colonies"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1979324134858592501) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-17T23:10Z 4635 followers, 5863 engagements


"I think Iran and Argentina are X of the most zany countries that exist. They function despite comical levels of dysfunction"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1979354686747754790) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-18T01:11Z 4635 followers, 2646 engagements


"China did nothing wrong. Conflict was always unavoidable. US simply got distracted by its GWOT adventures for too long and China executed its development plans faster than expected. US miscalculated the timeline of China's development and executed its ME crusade badly"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1979560079511670829) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-18T14:47Z 4635 followers, 17.3K engagements


"@teortaxesTex China's domestic LDP EUV light source can power a scanner with 1/7 the wph of ASML's latest"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1979700742543040987) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-19T00:06Z 4635 followers, XXX engagements


"Starting my own thread since Lei blocked me. Real war has costs yet wars continue to happen. The costs and horrors of war have been well known since antiquity and yet humans continue to engage in it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1978497970392723818) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-15T16:27Z 4635 followers, 11K engagements


"The Mongols didn't conquer Eurasia on the strength of their ideas. Christendom was incredibly weak after fall of Rome for a long time. Muslims occupied large chunks of Europe at one point"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1979166090946138622) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-17T12:42Z 4635 followers, 10.8K engagements


"South Korea is going to lose shipbuilding chemicals steel semiconductors cars eventually. The entire export-industrial complex evolved to thrive in the US led global free trade order"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1979315458609418670) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-17T22:35Z 4635 followers, 4487 engagements


"@AbdiOtf6561 China have way more physical capital at this point. US have a lot of monetary units sloshing around in the financial system but these cannot be converted to physical capital without massive inflation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1979556950305124600) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-18T14:35Z 4635 followers, XXX engagements


"We can flip the question to ask what did the US do wrong The fundamental mistake of the US is thinking that China is like Japan USSR or Iraq. The over reliance on historical analogies to conceptualize new situations led to fundamental misunderstanding of the new situation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1979570108079952091) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-18T15:27Z 4635 followers, 9022 engagements


"Inflation will leak into commodity prices like food. Using price to ration demand for commodities like food means that in event of shortage food prices will rise until some people can't afford to eat"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1979859547482427559) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-19T10:37Z 4635 followers, XXX engagements


"This is my thesis as well. Debasement doesn't work well under current duration structure of USTs. Creditors can flee into commodities very quickly and cause hyperinflation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1978799011017449886) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-16T12:23Z 4635 followers, 1957 engagements


"Electrochemical refining exploit differences in reduction potential between elements. Since voltage and current can be controlled much more precisely than temperature it is possible to refine to much higher level of purity than pyro-metallurgical processes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1979288390517559771) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-17T20:48Z 4635 followers, XXX engagements


"@teortaxesTex This is a similar situation to where the US will be in REE if they work hard for a couple of years. You have usable supply but at 2-3x the cost of global SOTA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1979701249537892699) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-19T00:08Z 4635 followers, XXX engagements


"@teortaxesTex That being said. China have multiple parallel EUV light source development projects. LDP for short term usable. LPP to try to catch up to ASML in medium term. SSMB to surpass ASML and achieve tech leadership in next generation of photolithography tech"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1979707896444416087) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-19T00:35Z 4635 followers, 2231 engagements


"@cye9kv1 I think XX years worth of personal/family consumption in meats grains dairies is a reasonable stockpile. That will get through many adverse social-economic scenarios"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1979864008590324176) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-19T10:55Z 4635 followers, XXX engagements


"@cye9kv1 Events that cause most people to have to sharply cut back on food consumption can't last too long. Things like a Great Depression Weimar style hyperinflation Soviet collapse will tend to resolve within XX years"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1979864610946887842) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-19T10:58Z 4635 followers, XXX engagements


"@WDLD0712 The counter point is that post 1991 RF agricultural output growth is slower than 1950-1980 period. Capitalism didn't improve output faster than communism. It just throttled consumption by making food less affordable to average workers"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1979957041557840345) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-19T17:05Z 4635 followers, XXX engagements


"There is a misconception that China has high food important dependence. In practice it is XX% self sufficient. Yields rise 1%/year while population is falling 0.3%/year. If per capita consumption remains stable China will become net food exporter by late 2030s"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1898645522614747214) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-03-09T08:02Z 4636 followers, 20K engagements


"@StigSilvester The point is to maintain the credible threat of attacking territories the US must defend in order to tie down US military resources"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1969720398955581718) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-09-21T11:08Z 4638 followers, XXX engagements


"@StigSilvester The difference between China and Japan is China have access to the continental resources of Asia. It doesn't need conquest for resource purposes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1969721243742966062) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-09-21T11:11Z 4639 followers, XXX engagements


"This bridge is so big it looks big even relative to the landscape"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1973530516420002102) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-01T23:28Z 4636 followers, 4.1M engagements


"The construction cost of the new Huajianggu bridge is 2.1B $295M. Most recent purchase price of Indian Rafales are $285M x 26"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1973743520847687974) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-02T13:35Z 4630 followers, 4998 engagements


"Hyperscaling is the new housing bubble except the assets depreciate a lot faster. If US government doesn't print to bailout all the people who misallocated capital the balance sheet recession from trillions in misallocated capital will result in multiple lost decades"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1975607327509389564) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-07T17:01Z 4619 followers, 11.4K engagements


"@IyerDharmapuri Just look at what it did to consumption growth in the T1 cities which took the biggest hit. It's brutally painful regardless. China has massive export surplus to help cushion the shock"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1976201136857285085) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-09T08:20Z 4616 followers, XXX engagements


"@IyerDharmapuri China took advantage of the post-pandemic global liquidity boom to generate massive export surplus to cushion the shock from the real estate crash. Without this the government would have had to run massive deficits to support domestic demand"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1976204983071543597) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-09T08:35Z 4616 followers, 5349 engagements


"US money printing + China's real estate bust is symbiotic. China exports deflation while US exports inflation. This regime is not permanent. Once China's real estate market bottoms it will flip into inflation mode again"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1976205788373831739) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-09T08:39Z 4630 followers, 4640 engagements


"We are at this point. China is ramping up liquidity expansion and discharging it into gold and commodities instead of domestic real estate this time"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1976206038660677653) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-09T08:40Z 4623 followers, XXX engagements


"If both US and China are exporting inflation then global inflation will explode. US will be forced into exporting deflation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1976206399378989266) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-09T08:41Z 4623 followers, 1428 engagements


"China prints money to buy gold/commodities from around the world US then contracts demand via prolonged government shutdown/cuts to discretionary government spending + high unemployment"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1976207475536798177) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-09T08:45Z 4630 followers, 1708 engagements


"This is similar to semiconductor manufacturing. Conceptually photolithography is very straight forward. The difficulty is in the details"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1976233160418697683) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-09T10:27Z 4623 followers, 3003 engagements


"I have been saying for past X years that China's counterattack will begin once US is forced to cut rates. If US doesn't win the trade war by the time Fed starts major rate cuts it will have lost"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1976629814909186085) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-10T12:44Z 4594 followers, 11.4K engagements


"@IvanPMasli No that's not how finance works. If real cost of capital can be determined by central banks no one would ever go broke. You need real savings to finance real investment. Interest rate has to balance supply and demand of real savings"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1976636820319572355) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-10T13:11Z 4617 followers, 1465 engagements


"🤣🤣🤣 NVIDIA rents GPUs from CoreWeave"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1976705336049336402) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-10T17:44Z 4637 followers, 1590 engagements


"All those weapons on display at the parade on 9/3 are already in service. They will come in handy in the phase after US financial sanctions fail"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1976708717136556056) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-10T17:57Z 4598 followers, XXX engagements


"China converting commodities trade to CNY is prep for the financial war. US can ban access to USD payment system but if most of China's trade is conducted in CNY it won't matter"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1976709552830595359) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-10T18:00Z 4600 followers, 1787 engagements


"There is a fundamental misunderstanding on the economic significance of ASML's photolithography machines"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1977071054674624739) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-11T17:57Z 4623 followers, 2382 engagements


"The low cost of living in China enables the least ambitious Chinese young people to live off of their parents for life and pretend to be unemployed when they are in fact retired"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1977198272268976159) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-12T02:22Z 4624 followers, 4758 engagements


"Many factories have trouble finding workers while youth unemployment is in high double digits. Unemployment rate for college educated young people is now higher than for those that didn't go to college"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1977198919160303721) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-12T02:25Z 4623 followers, 3699 engagements


"This is a form of social drag that manifest once a society reaches a certain level of wealth. A society that wants these people to work will have to produce fun well paid low pressure non-physically or mentally taxing work"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1977200848444047784) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-12T02:33Z 4624 followers, 5224 engagements


"Many regulatory administrative and government jobs in the US are in fact this form of adult daycare. This reduces the youth unemployment rate but at what cost"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1977201238379995198) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-12T02:34Z 4632 followers, 5529 engagements


"@ijkTA1619 @MLPpXY9AlM The small air war over Ukraine is essentially replaying the evolution of aviation from WWI with much cheaper units in much larger numbers"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1977808116009115976) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-13T18:46Z 4594 followers, XXX engagements


"This is a popular idea. US threatens to burn down the world if it doesn't get to be hegemon. In practice US will mostly burn down its USD trading system and the economies of its allies"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1977860841656430845) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-13T22:15Z 4636 followers, 12K engagements


"The countries that are most exposed to the US financial system are US allies. Russia is immune to US financial warfare at this point and China is also increasingly immune after shifting most of its trade/finance to using CNY"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1977861711974580472) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-13T22:19Z 4608 followers, 1491 engagements


"If China Japan South Korea maintained higher fertility rates over the past generation and have higher population than now their food sufficiency rates would be much lower and they would be much more vulnerable to adverse external events/pressures"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1977874136429904115) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-13T23:08Z 4624 followers, XXX engagements


"1997 style financial crisis is extremely dangerous for countries like South Korea because when a country like South Korea runs out of foreign exchange they will not be able to eat"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1977874376973316330) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-13T23:09Z 4624 followers, 1462 engagements


"Consumption subsidies function like a force multiplier for personal savings that can be selectively deployed. For example you might get a X year limited XX% discount on EVs financed by the state budget which makes your savings far more valuable in terms of EV purchasing power"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1978081788644728956) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-14T12:53Z 4623 followers, 1794 engagements


"This allows the government to stimulate personal consumption at specific times in specific sectors. Unlike helicopter money this doesn't reward lazy people who don't earn income/don't save money. It rewards people who work hard to earn money and save it responsibly"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1978082112948297779) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-14T12:55Z 4623 followers, 1644 engagements


"@ysfg998 @PurcellGregory @IyerDharmapuri If NATO ground troops are forced to operate without CAS like UAF ground troops and incur the kind of attrition that UAF is currently incurring that would be a major Russian win"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1978109095665181121) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-14T14:42Z 4615 followers, XXX engagements


"@ysfg998 @PurcellGregory @IyerDharmapuri Ultimately the purpose of TACAIR is to enable ground forces to fight/win without incurring the kind of losses that UAF is currently incurring. If sortie rates/availability is so degraded that brutal manpower attrition is unavoidable that means air power is effectively suppressed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1978109562608652703) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-14T14:44Z 4615 followers, XXX engagements


"@1444_kris High P/E leads to extremely low cost of equity capital for US firms. Low P/E will force US firms to rely far more on debt/cashflow for financing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1978122561159332321) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-14T15:35Z 4616 followers, XXX engagements


"CPC doesn't want a society where many have debt and few have capital. This isn't just a matter of personal choice. Fundamentally it is similar to drugs gambling and prostitution. Consumer debt is long term corrosive to society"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1978250371635073087) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-15T00:03Z 4606 followers, 7124 engagements


"@Antikeburg Europe isn't worth investing in. It has no growth potential. The only profit in Europe is in liquidation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1978332636486541490) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-15T05:30Z 4623 followers, 7737 engagements


"Indonesia is hedging its bets. It doesn't really need the fighter jets this is just protection money being paid to the great powers. Operating fighter jets from US Europe Russia and China is a logistics nightmare"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1978463414964936931) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-15T14:10Z 4641 followers, 11.8K engagements


"@gonglei89 @z1078640139 This will end in a hot war. Economic disputes will escalate into armed coercion of 3rd parties. US will use armed force to regime change 3rd countries with valuable minerals/resources to enhance its geo-economic position relative to China"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1978489588420166054) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-15T15:54Z 4635 followers, 21.1K engagements


"The main risk of VZ is if the US invades and it is surprisingly successful it will encourage further military actions along this direction against countries like Brazil"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1978518904038105491) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-15T17:50Z 4615 followers, 3796 engagements


"The idea that USD is backed by the US military is not just an empty meme. If the US can coerce countries into staying with USD then de-dollarization cannot occur under pure commercial/national interest logic"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1978519915981062210) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-15T17:54Z 4623 followers, 1627 engagements


"If US can coerce VZ or Brazil into using USD militarily CN too can coerce SEA and Australia into using CNY militarily. Any attempt by the other power to prevent this militarily will then risk escalation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1978520854137844006) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-15T17:58Z 4623 followers, 5119 engagements


"Consider an implicit deterrence setup where CN will invade/regime change the Philippines in the event that US invade/regime change VZ. This negates geopolitical gains via military coercion of 3rd countries"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1978549236363874715) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-15T19:51Z 4603 followers, 2603 engagements


"@yieldsearcher This isn't new. Post-2008 US chose to inflate UST + stocks + real estate while CN chose to inflate real estate to absorb newly issued liquidity. Gold is now a target because it wasn't inflated in the last cycle"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1978556800807932143) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-15T20:21Z 4594 followers, XXX engagements


"UN should really authorize an invasion of Myanmar to shutdown human trafficking. This is worse than drug trafficking and scam call centers. Kidnapping people in neighboring countries and selling their organs is really getting into the upper tiers of criminality"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1978622653700182490) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-16T00:42Z 4630 followers, 20.6K engagements


"In terms of power generation in India 2004-2014 was 6%/year 2014-2024 was 5.7%. India had been on steady growth trajectory since the early 90s"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1978789772329091530) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-16T11:47Z 4623 followers, 2697 engagements


"Modi benefitted from a relatively benign geopolitical environment. Era of QE and low interest rates lowered cost of capital globally"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1978789775319699754) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-16T11:47Z 4623 followers, 2138 engagements


"Defense spending as % of GDP fell under Modi from XXX to XXX. In the short run cutting defense will feel good for the civilian economy. In the long run whether it was a good idea will depend on geopolitics"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1978789776766402958) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-16T11:47Z 4605 followers, XXX engagements


"@apisith84 US shale is also running out of prime acreage so breakevens will go up as geology deteriorates. Future growth will have to come from deep offshore and Arctic which are extremely expensive to develop"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1978797874298192229) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-16T12:19Z 4599 followers, XXX engagements


"@apisith84 The offshore drilling supply chain got decimated after the oil crash of 2014. It will take an extended period of high oil prices to rebuild that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1978798164196130972) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-16T12:20Z 4600 followers, XXX engagements


"@tphuang @AngelicaOung The idea of SMR is that they would be built in large enough numbers to get economy of scale. By this logic we should build X passenger aircraft instead of XXX passenger ones"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1978805752069308776) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-16T12:50Z 4634 followers, XXX engagements


"China can afford to pop its real estate bubble US can't afford to pop its equity bubble. Being in a position where you cannot afford to pop financial bubbles is a massive liability. Bubbles eventually pop they will pop at inconvenient times if you do not pop them proactively"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1978814379844911464) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-16T13:24Z 4640 followers, 32.1K engagements


"@cye9kv1 @DhaniSriram Modi benefitted from good external environment. Cheap oil low global interest rates no major wars until 2022"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1978847881437020342) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-16T15:37Z 4607 followers, XXX engagements


"@ShazCoder It really depends on your yardstick. Japan is like Apple. Apple is still a cash flow machine but it is no longer an innovator"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1978905263194149206) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-16T19:25Z 4616 followers, 1149 engagements


"@ShazCoder It is possible to see a day when Apple becomes an IBM or HP which were also once pioneers"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1978905740346638394) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-16T19:27Z 4616 followers, XXX engagements


"They only continue to exist because the superpowers haven't decided to extinguish the sovreignty of their host nation-states yet"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1979171938497908998) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-17T13:05Z 4641 followers, 1461 engagements


"@ijkTA1619 We aren't in full blown WW3 yet. It takes time to build up and also convert recent decades of tech/scientific advances into military products"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1979181162095419462) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-17T13:42Z 4637 followers, XXX engagements


"@ijkTA1619 Orbital DEW still have a power problem. Solar + batteries isn't feasible for power + availability required. No one thus far have deployed workable space nuclear reactors with the power levels required"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1979192177776300179) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-17T14:26Z 4638 followers, XXX engagements


"I looked up the trends in CN's IC import/export value. There is a decent chance that net trade deficit is $200B in 2025"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1979198722308186152) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-17T14:52Z 4637 followers, 2270 engagements


"@ijkTA1619 A lot of ideas that should work in theory end up taking a long time to develop in practice. We still don't have nuclear powered aircraft for example"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1979206439596892458) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-17T15:22Z 4637 followers, XXX engagements


"@yieldsearcher It also helps that duration is shortening + Fed is cutting short term rates. Every X% rate cut is like $300B in annual interest savings"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1979216451840963037) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-17T16:02Z 4639 followers, XXX engagements


"@yieldsearcher The bigger factor in budget improvement is not tariffs but tax via inflation. Gold / oil ratio is now at the highest level in over XXX years. At some point the inflation in precious metals will spill over into general commodities if interest rates do not rise"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1979217508964950501) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-17T16:06Z 4639 followers, XXX engagements


"Current global trade patterns reflect the most economically efficient arrangement for many commodities. It says little about the loss from adopting the next-best option for many countries"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1979228791105901008) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-17T16:51Z 4637 followers, 1484 engagements


"The main cost of upgrading low grade ore is the energy cost of crushing into fine dust to extract iron rich particles via magnets. The upgrading cost will come down as energy becomes cheaper"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1979230254548873373) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-17T16:57Z 4637 followers, XXX engagements


"There are a handful of dominant languages and cultures on Earth while the vat majority of cultures and languages that arose throughout human history are either extinct or losing influence/on their way to extinction"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1979255928965779766) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-17T18:39Z 4637 followers, XXX engagements


"The leverage of technology and industry magnifies the relative power of #1 over time. US built the most dominant global order in human history with its vast industrial and technological resources"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1979256617964089733) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-17T18:42Z 4638 followers, 1084 engagements


"@ijkTA1619 The US + Liberal Universalism is the current political + cultural/ideological embodiment of the supra-national West. Many Europeans Canadians and Liberal Americans are effectively members of the same civilization"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1979264855283560813) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-17T19:14Z 4607 followers, XXX engagements


"@ijkTA1619 A major geopolitical accomplishment of 1945-1956 was to abort UK/FR attempt to rebuild their empires and permanently relegate them to second class status. Without this the US could never become the undisputed leader of the West"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1979271272174620690) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-17T19:40Z 4637 followers, XXX engagements


"@ijkTA1619 It was only after France lost Vietnam/Algeria Britain lost India/Suez that US can really focus on the Soviet Union"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1979271522108784907) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-17T19:41Z 4637 followers, XXX engagements


"This will enable more economic extraction of elements from much lower concentrations and vastly increase the economic supply of all sorts of minerals"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1979282562901004536) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-17T20:25Z 4637 followers, XXX engagements


"@ijkTA1619 Solving the nuclear weapons problem will likely require development of DEW that are powered by either advanced fission or fusion which have enough power density to be deployed into airborne/space platforms and cover large areas"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1979284772380623328) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-17T20:33Z 4637 followers, XXX engagements


"Historically thermal energy was far cheaper than electric energy because almost all electricity was generated via thermal-mechanical processes. Due to this pyro-metallurgical processes tend to be more economic for bulk refining than electrochemical processes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1979287197582086401) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-17T20:43Z 4639 followers, XXX engagements


"Pyro-metallurgy exploit differences in melting point between different minerals. The problem is that heat cannot be precisely controlled in a bulk material so pyro-metallurgy cannot be that precise"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1979287651103486071) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-17T20:45Z 4640 followers, XXX engagements


"This is unfortunately a generational problem in China that is a legacy of the 1990-2015 era. Corruption went completely out of control. People are being arrested after retirement as well as while in office. It will take a generation to clean this up"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1979304435848556661) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-17T21:52Z 4635 followers, 30.2K engagements


"Islamic world is currently divided and weak but it is not impossible for them to unite and become powerful. Germany was once divided and weak. 1871-1914 was only XX years"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1979310749991473164) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-17T22:17Z 4635 followers, 3158 engagements


"Everything SK built was on top of being an US vassal. Being an US vassal wasn't a bad deal in an earlier era. Yet GDP isn't everything. The long term consequences of vassalage eventually manifest"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1979314266147819523) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-17T22:31Z 4635 followers, 8579 engagements


"SK will lose it's markets outside of US order and lose physical capital to politically driven US reindustrialization"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1979315461973250439) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-17T22:35Z 4639 followers, 2040 engagements


"While EUV photolithography machines are very important for a few steps in the semiconductor manufacturing process for the most advanced nodes the entire Western supply chain is held hostage by ASML's poor capex economics"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1979317995378733311) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-17T22:45Z 4635 followers, XXX engagements


"@MLPpXY9AlM South Korea doesn't control its own army in war time"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1979324466795811297) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-17T23:11Z 4638 followers, XXX engagements


"I think scamming people is killer app for LLMs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1979344085996704241) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-18T00:29Z 4635 followers, 2040 engagements


"You can really apply the same what did X do wrong to Japan South Korea Germany. US doesn't need a real reason to pick a fight. If it wants a fight it will find a reason"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1979562779922342162) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-18T14:58Z 4635 followers, 1462 engagements


"@pplsartofwar The ground disturbance does depend on weight speed and terrain. Type XXX is 35t vs 65t for M1. 35t is a bit more than T34/85 of WW2 era"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1979566730046214319) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-18T15:14Z 4637 followers, XXX engagements


"@AbdiOtf6561 China is refusing to import US inflation this time and this is the difference. China is preparing its own stimulus and if the US attempt to print them global inflation will explode"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1979567766412906651) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-18T15:18Z 4639 followers, XXX engagements


"@AbdiOtf6561 In a contest of everyone prints China will always have more real industrial capacity and real goods to back its printed money than the US"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1979567954200060408) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-18T15:19Z 4637 followers, XXX engagements


"@AbdiOtf6561 The idea that US will finance reindustrialization with inflation won't work because creditors will quickly run into commodities and make reindustrialization prohibitively expensive"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1979568427216859502) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-18T15:21Z 4635 followers, XXX engagements


"Framing the Europeans as the maritime versions of the steppe barbarians led to underestimation of European power"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1979571721528082858) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-18T15:34Z 4635 followers, 1061 engagements


"Not understanding the nature of the new challenge will lead to underestimating how hard/painful the reforms required will be. This will cause attempts at reform to fail the same way that under budgeting a construction project will cause the project to fail"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1979573323353686500) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-18T15:40Z 4635 followers, XXX engagements


"Turkey's starting point was higher. This was the Ottoman Empire in 1900. Turkey was the core of this empire for XXX years"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1979578849739575711) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-18T16:02Z 4635 followers, 7359 engagements


"China imports soy from Brazil just banned NVIDIA chips. Boeing orders won't be delivered for many years so not near term relevant"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1979610245342364139) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-18T18:07Z 4635 followers, 1999 engagements


"For young people in the West the path forward involves becoming barbarians. Rome will be sacked. It's better to be on the side of the barbarians"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1979618582146474196) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-18T18:40Z 4635 followers, 5279 engagements


"The world in 1800"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1979651003302719918) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-18T20:49Z 4635 followers, 2495 engagements


"@teortaxesTex The funny thing about the ASML bros saying this is the only part that China really lacks right now in terms of EUV tech isn't made by ASML it's the LPP laser tech made by Cymer in the US"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1979700152748363972) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-19T00:04Z 4635 followers, 1128 engagements


"@teortaxesTex Even at 1/2 or 1/3 the capex cost the unit economics will still be inferior to ASML"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1979700959040434595) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-19T00:07Z 4635 followers, XXX engagements


"HEPS is spinning up XX km north of BJ this December"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1979717343032095085) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-19T01:12Z 4635 followers, 1781 engagements


"This is why I say stockpiling food is a good use of fiat for average people"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1979859545439821895) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-19T10:37Z 4635 followers, 2982 engagements


"🤣🤣🤣 If people are spending all their income on food and have no money to pay for anything else it would look like deflation at the aggregate level"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1979867717118435464) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-19T11:10Z 4635 followers, 1629 engagements


"@ShunuSweet Pre-GFC GBP and EUR was very overvalued vs USD. EURUSD went up to XXX and GBPUSD was near 2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1979869667931079102) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-19T11:18Z 4635 followers, XXX engagements


"@WDLD0712 The food surplus post 1991 was created via crash in consumption + population decline"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JZ281C/status/1979957178208268675) [@JZ281C](/creator/x/JZ281C) 2025-10-19T17:05Z 4635 followers, XXX engagements