[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.] #  @CedarReseach Cedar Street Research Cedar Street Research posts on X about insurance, $wrb, $ffhto, $frfhf the most. They currently have XXXXX followers and XXX posts still getting attention that total XXXXX engagements in the last XX hours. ### Engagements: XXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::752268654583001092/interactions)  - X Week XXXXXX +100% - X Month XXXXXXX -XX% ### Mentions: XX [#](/creator/twitter::752268654583001092/posts_active)  ### Followers: XXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::752268654583001092/followers)  - X Week XXXXX +12% - X Month XXXXX +56% ### CreatorRank: XXXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::752268654583001092/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence [#](/creator/twitter::752268654583001092/influence) --- **Social category influence** [stocks](/list/stocks) [finance](/list/finance) [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) #5612 [celebrities](/list/celebrities) [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations) [countries](/list/countries) **Social topic influence** [insurance](/topic/insurance) #317, [$wrb](/topic/$wrb) #1, [$ffhto](/topic/$ffhto), [$frfhf](/topic/$frfhf), [$ori](/topic/$ori), [$cb](/topic/$cb), [$bro](/topic/$bro) #4, [investment](/topic/investment), [$rli](/topic/$rli), [$hig](/topic/$hig) #2 **Top assets mentioned** [W R Berkley Corp (WRB)](/topic/$wrb) [Old Republic International Corporation (ORI)](/topic/$ori) [Cheeseball (CB)](/topic/$cb) [Neurobro (BRO)](/topic/$bro) [RLI Corp. (RLI)](/topic/$rli) [Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (HIG)](/topic/$hig) [Progressive Corp (PGR)](/topic/$pgr) [Markel, Corp. (MKL)](/topic/$mkl) [The Root Network (ROOT)](/topic/$root) [Ryan Specialty Group, Inc. (RYAN)](/topic/$ryan) [CNA Financial, Corp. (CNA)](/topic/$cna) [American International Group Inc (AIG)](/topic/$aig) [TrustVerse (TRV)](/topic/$trv) [Alliance Fan Token (ALL)](/topic/$all) [Assurant, Inc. (AIZ)](/topic/$aiz) [Aon PLC (AON)](/topic/$aon) [Arch Capital Group Ltd (ACGL)](/topic/$acgl) [Everest Group, Ltd. (EG)](/topic/$eg) [Erie Indemnity Co. (ERIE)](/topic/$erie) [RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. (RNR)](/topic/$rnr) [Accelerant Holdings (ARX)](/topic/$arx) [Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)](/topic/$tsla) [Agilon Health, Inc. (AGL)](/topic/$agl) [Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MMC)](/topic/$mmc) [Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER)](/topic/$uber) [Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG)](/topic/$ajg) [Carvana Co. (CVNA)](/topic/$cvna) [Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL)](/topic/$crcl) [Bread Financial Holdings, Inc. (BFH)](/topic/$bfh) [Oscar Health, Inc. (OSCR)](/topic/$oscr) [CareCoin (CARE)](/topic/$care) [Lemonade, Inc. (LMND)](/topic/$lmnd) [Allstate Corp (ALL)](/topic/allstate) [Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. (KNSL)](/topic/$knsl) [RAI Finance (SOFI)](/topic/$sofi) [Dash (DASH)](/topic/$dash) [Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF)](/topic/$cinf) [UnitedHealth Group (UNH)](/topic/$unh) [Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company Ordinary Shares (WTW)](/topic/$wtw) ### Top Social Posts [#](/creator/twitter::752268654583001092/posts) --- Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours "@DJ_EBITDA Its a fair point will try and run some numbers. Hartford as an example almost went under during the GFC. AIG basically did go under excluding the TARP funding they received. Argo Aspen etc underperformed for a number of years before going private as well and many others"  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1946735519641088196) 2025-07-20 00:54:51 UTC 1269 followers, XXX engagements "There's a lot of moving parts with $AMBC a financial guaranty liability transfer awaiting regulatory approval ($420m tailwind for $AMBC if it goes through - will it get approved "we have no clue") a portfolio that's been largely unprofitable from an underwriting standpoint a lifetime supply of NOL's. At XX% book it's a bit of a roll of the dice. Will the be the best underwriters in the market one day I would say that stands a X% likelihood but can the stock do a 2x on the sale of the liabilities in the next XX months and a shift in underwriting metrics Perhaps it's definitely higher than 1%."  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1949547751752007920) 2025-07-27 19:09:39 UTC 1342 followers, 1415 engagements "$ORI doing what they do best. Q2 2025 Highlights: +18% Revenue +11% Net Premium / Fee's +2% Net Investment Income +127% Earnings $114m Underwriting Profit (+5%) Loss Ratio flat (reserve development flat YOY) Expense Ratio flat +15% Specialty Premium +5% Title Premium (Pleasantly Surprised) Book Value growth of +10% through first X months Title expense ratio still challenging would really like to see operating improvements here. It was really interesting to see commercial and residential growth increased"  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1948387691109699946) 2025-07-24 14:19:59 UTC 1342 followers, XXX engagements "We see l captives sneak their way into these companies with horrible disclosures on what they did with them and how theyre setup / capitalized. Usually theyre trying to pinch a few pennies improving operating margin but they never reserve for them correctly. $JRVR almost went bankrupt insuring them. 7/11 tried throwing one at us where they pooled all of their highest crime rate stores into a captive provided no capital got some shitty fronting paper and said were only going to take on 5:1 underwriting leverage and a brokerage 3rd party actuary said its all priced perfectly. Needless to say we"  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1949180440591352209) 2025-07-26 18:50:05 UTC 1317 followers, XXX engagements "$WRB performance excluding dividends through the previous soft rate cycle in insurance. Those who didn't deplete their reserves in the hard cycle will have a lot of excess capital in the soft cycle. Focus on earnings and reserve quality"  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1950572866962923657) 2025-07-30 15:03:06 UTC 1342 followers, XXX engagements "Everything about $RYAN screams frothy valuation"  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1943696875615301675) 2025-07-11 15:40:21 UTC 1340 followers, XXX engagements "@DJ_EBITDA I think this gives a pretty good picture. Accident Year results will vary a lot from carrier to carrier (some good some not so good) but gives a good sense of peer benchmark performance. $RLI $TRV $WRV $ORI $HIG $AIG $CNA $FRFHF / $FFH.TO $EG $ERIE $RNR $SPNT"  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1946752771325091846) 2025-07-20 02:03:24 UTC 1334 followers, XXX engagements "$ARX trading at 51x adjusted EBITDA. I'm starting to get flashbacks of the $CRCL IPO. There's a lot of momentum trading happening in the market"  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1948778895127294441) 2025-07-25 16:14:29 UTC 1334 followers, XXX engagements "Spent some time digging through Fannie Mae $FNMA securitization documents. This was dated as of 5/20/25. There are way more exciting things to do in life. Seeing a lot of reports that asset values in Florida are down as well as parts of Texas. Most of the loans that were securitized by $FMNA sat on the books for XX to XX months before being securitized. I struggle to believe the homes in Florida have an average LTV of 76%. Just looking at some general Zillow data that's out there one would have to argue it's much higher. It seems like 10-20% of these securitizations are close to or above 100%"  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1947371333878178174) 2025-07-21 19:01:21 UTC 1338 followers, 1962 engagements "Will he respond No. Does he listen seems to be Yes"  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1943693496679907764) 2025-07-11 15:26:56 UTC 1334 followers, XXX engagements "Hopefully the print isn't too small this is what I would define as "cash flow underwriting". P&C Combined consistently over XXX% and operating ratio fairly healthy due to net investment income. $CNA produced $XXX billion in underwriting losses and $XXXX billion in net investment income from Q1 2016 to Q1 2025. The business model seems to "work" but why would anyone want to pay a multiple on fixed income yields"  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1946675817733636223) 2025-07-19 20:57:37 UTC 1269 followers, XXX engagements "@longwalkcapital @StateFarm Last decade their market share 2x across personal and commercial auto in the U.S. $PGR"  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1950546725195669651) 2025-07-30 13:19:13 UTC 1342 followers, XX engagements "@stoked_on_waves Yeah Im not going to argue that the Beat Capital guys are actually really good operators in London but the US underwriting has been questionable to say the least"  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1949553173536166079) 2025-07-27 19:31:12 UTC 1315 followers, XX engagements "And if you do any due diligence on their reinsurance credit risk you'll find it's a significant amount of un-rated collateralized or weak offshore reinsurance partners. Relm for instance is an underfunded offshore reinsurer out of the Bermuda that focuses on Crypto Cannabis and Psychedelic's with around $50m in surplus"  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1947653627989921814) 2025-07-22 13:43:05 UTC 1342 followers, XXX engagements "It will be interesting to see where sub-prime consumer credit trends not a space we like right now even with lower interest rates on the horizon. $BFH net loss rate is back at 2008 GFC levels as cited in their SEC Filings (see below) and indicate a prolonged continuation could cause a material adverse impact on the business. I was always trained to aim at super prime and it's never failed me. When XX% of your credit's are sub-prime and XX% of those deep sub-prime it's a difficult environment to navigate. $BFH has lost some large partnership contract's recently (Example: BJ's and Wayfair) and"  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1942592764572569951) 2025-07-08 14:33:01 UTC 1269 followers, XXX engagements "If you know the industry most markets see Demotech as a rating agency of last resort. Just like when an Insured is notified if an insurer is backed by a state guaranty fund or not (there is a warning) it's not the same with rating agencies. I was blown away when I saw that "It rates XX% of the insurers A for "exceptional" or the even better A Prime or A Double Prime". I was further blown away that "Insurers it rated were 30x as likely to become insolvent". These ratings aren't worth the digital paper they are issued on. Maybe time for a disclosure change when a consumer or business buys"  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1950220812318920718) 2025-07-29 15:44:09 UTC 1342 followers, XXX engagements "@elonmusk can we shove a neuralink in $TSLA insurance Rather than perform surgery you can buy $ROOT for around 1x forward sales on two companies growing like a weed"  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1949585669967184135) 2025-07-27 21:40:19 UTC 1315 followers, XXX engagements "@ebitdaddy90 $FFH.TO has been at it since the 80s doing a similar model mini $BRK $MKL not too far off"  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1930454581189734434) 2025-06-05 02:40:12 UTC 1341 followers, 4027 engagements "$KFS is this the lowest of the lower middle market public entity / private equity model using NOLs to fund a well lets call it a unique incubator / roll up strategy I feel like the warranty business just kinda funds everything Hard to slap a value on this one. Open to the communities thoughts"  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1949560663124369891) 2025-07-27 20:00:57 UTC 1319 followers, XXX engagements "Noticed $MKL has a lot of issues with Other Liability - Claims Made portfolio. Talked to some folks in the industry and it sounds like there are a lot of problems the term layoff came up a few times. Looked at the reserve development on the portfolio and it's certainly facing a fair amount of adverse development. Many on X don't know about this but there was utter mania in the dumbest market that existed called the Intellectual Property Credit Insurance market a two years ago. IP is used as collateral for a loan and insurers were dumb enough to insure the credit risk if the collateral fell"  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1948393450274963963) 2025-07-24 14:42:52 UTC 1342 followers, 1573 engagements "@ath33 @amitisinvesting A fund manager has virtually no cost of capital theres cheaper ways to gain leverage"  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1950357966554648759) 2025-07-30 00:49:09 UTC 1342 followers, XXX engagements "$AGL hope the market realizes this company is effectively bankrupt. If you look at their reserves and focus on the consistent trend of adverse development one would have to assume with more growth targeted for in 2025 that losses + adverse development will wipe out their capital"  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1910367924537205173) 2025-04-10 16:23:00 UTC 1341 followers, 1593 engagements "It will be really interesting to see if Homeowners rates stay flat in Florida in 2026. Seems like the top is in but rates appear very healthy at the moment. $UVE $PGR $SLDE $HCI $ALL"  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1946680982129529206) 2025-07-19 21:18:08 UTC 1323 followers, XXX engagements "We've been tracking the rate change data in the Other Liability - Occurrence (Casualty) market across the most of the top XX carriers such as $CB $TRV $WRB $BRK $FRFHF / $MKL $HIG $AIG $ORI. Based on the regulator "approved" rate filings we are showing the approved rate increases across the listed carriers has averaged +4.8% per year since Q4 2020. As claims severity is outpacing this at a healthy clip it seems like the market is very soft. What many in the market see from the rate updates from broker earnings calls $MMC $AON $AJG $BRO $RYAN $WTW are the "premium" changes which does not"  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1947402172011811321) 2025-07-21 21:03:53 UTC 1323 followers, XXX engagements "More wins for the folks at $FRFHF / $FFH.TO Gulf Insurance has been a very big growth engine for them in recent years"  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1937518173999497499) 2025-06-24 14:28:24 UTC 1342 followers, 4208 engagements "A carrier that fly's under the radar $AIZ seems like they might know how to use software for their renters product (see LAE Ratio 3%). X% acquisition cost ratio. $AIZ writes $XXXXX million (net earned premium) in Renters so over $XXX million in GWP. Operating ratio will knock your socks off. $AIZ distribution is focused on partnerships with commercial property managers and focuses on imbedded software solutions. @Nick_Lamparelli"  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1943457074261770308) 2025-07-10 23:47:28 UTC 1341 followers, XXX engagements "We posted on Agilon $AGL awhile back noting that we anticipated carriers had an inflation problem in the Medicare advantage market. We stay out of health insurance altogether from an investment perspective as we've never been comfortable with the regulatory risk. I know their are a lot of bulls out there on $OSCR (we personally like what the company has accomplished - but they are at the will of regulators and medical cost inflation) but when a marketplace's pricing is structurally off and adverse development is around the corner - it's not a good scenario for the health insurer. I know the"  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1943765338169983206) 2025-07-11 20:12:24 UTC 1341 followers, 1283 engagements "@DJ_EBITDA $ORI and $WRB have A++ management teams in place they are the silent rock stars of the insurance industry. $IGIC I'll have to take a look at"  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1948374891322839262) 2025-07-24 13:29:07 UTC 1335 followers, XXX engagements "$CARE whats the over under this guy Justice actually has the collateral to pay off Carter Bancshare"  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1942195066883231828) 2025-07-07 12:12:42 UTC 1306 followers, XXX engagements "We confirmed this last week in some of our SERFF rate filing data but we actually think the market in terms of "mechanical" rate change is flat to negative as brokers tend to comment more on "pricing" changes without accounting for exposure changes. Per $BRO Q2 premium changes were basically flat and down from Q1 premium changes. We believe this lines up with our forward looking data on approved and more importantly pending rate change data"  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1950203540913213479) 2025-07-29 14:35:31 UTC 1341 followers, XXX engagements "@Broker_Brett @Nick_Lamparelli Tony was a true legend"  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1949586330733756458) 2025-07-27 21:42:57 UTC 1314 followers, XX engagements "I'm convinced the market has absolutely no clue how this companies reinsurance works. Here's a benchmark. $ARX has reached meme status. $TSU.TO 14x $AON 15x $BRO 20x $RYAN 24x"  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1948779930789065176) 2025-07-25 16:18:36 UTC 1342 followers, XXX engagements "It's the blind leading the blind in Commercial Auto. $RLI CEO coming out swinging saying he basically doesn't understand why MGA's are so hot for Commercial Auto. Industry Schedule P Data suggests it's one of the worst performing lines in insurance. Nice follow up to $WRB commentary on the MGA market. Private Equity firms just want growth they don't really care how they get it and they don't care who they flip it to even if the revenue is built on a house of cards"  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1948027443803038130) 2025-07-23 14:28:29 UTC 1334 followers, XXX engagements "Anyone who thinks MGA's are profitable for reinsurers should take a second look we will be publishing some Schedule P Data on the various Hybrid Fronting companies that participate in the U.S. Marketplace. We can assure you they are great at making fee income and terrible at producing underwriting profits for their reinsurers. Here's a little taste from $TSU.TO otherwise known as Trisura Group Ltd. Below is nothing but adverse development and horrible accident year loss ratio performance for (1) All Lines (2) Commercial Auto Liability (3) Other Liability - Occurrence and (4) Commercial"  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1947652971732361347) 2025-07-22 13:40:28 UTC 1342 followers, 5672 engagements "As cited by $WRB management California regulators approved a +8.7% rate increase which is a rare move in the workers compensation industry as it's been plagued by nothing but state rate decreases for the better half of a decade. What's fascinating here is that workers compensation has been subsidizing most of the casualty results as work comp has experienced a significant amount of favorable development while casualty has faced a significant amount of adverse development over the years. The work comp market is $XX billion in direct written premium as of 2024 California is $XX billion or 20.3%"  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1947648417993236689) 2025-07-22 13:22:23 UTC 1334 followers, 1305 engagements "@JerryCap Putting aside their overall business and strategy I love the product for analyzing banks and insurance companies"  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1949780294334079161) 2025-07-28 10:33:41 UTC 1328 followers, XXX engagements "New updated Homeowners filing in Wisconsin with another reference to "system constraints". Not a knock I would genuinely like to understand what these system constraints are at $LMND as it seems to be a common theme with their Homeowners filings"  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1949942778743468166) 2025-07-28 21:19:21 UTC 1341 followers, 1490 engagements "@elonmusk please tell $TSLA insurance that they should buy $ROOT and simple growing pain mistakes like this can be avoided with a team that's experienced all of this before"  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1948373219414598018) 2025-07-24 13:22:29 UTC 1307 followers, XXX engagements "To be clear these are $WRB statutory filings because a wise person had asked why these look different than the reported figures in their SEC filings. Just wanted to clarify"  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1950580664836706331) 2025-07-30 15:34:05 UTC 1342 followers, XXX engagements "$PGR $ALL @StateFarm and for fun $ROOT. Could have included GEICO and USAA but forgot and ran out of time. Seeing "accelerating" rate softening in the personal auto market in the California Texas Florida and New York which represents XX% of the $XXX billion personal auto market. Rates include "approved" and "pending" rate filing data. Rates are still at all time highs so we anticipate strong combined ratios for 2025 but we anticipate loss ratio's will creep up on the back half of the year and into 2026"  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1950190195560603973) 2025-07-29 13:42:30 UTC 1342 followers, 2973 engagements "@longwalkcapital @StateFarm Exactly and $PGR has been investing in technology forever it's not this dinosaur legacy insurance carrier. $XXX million in capitalized internal-use software investments as of 2024. $XXX million if you include internal use software licensing as well"  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1950548348949160206) 2025-07-30 13:25:40 UTC 1342 followers, XX engagements "Yeah I think its sector specific but in the aggregate if you read $MMC $AON $BRO $RYAN $KNSL and some other carrier earnings calls from Q1 they were all publicly disclosing property CAT rates coming down the fastest and commercial property at large seeing softening. Certain property types and regions resilient I have no doubt just seems to be soft in the aggregate and it makes sense everytime reinsurance gets cheap or cheaper and ceding commissions increase due to competition it gives carriers the ability to drop rate as their reinsurance economics improve a lot"  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1944243931610296355) 2025-07-13 03:54:10 UTC 1317 followers, XXX engagements "Doing some interesting research. Checking some of my holdings for potential Flood exposure in Texas. Don't expect much news out of Chubb $CB they have a whopping 1225 policies in-force in the state of Texas covered for Primary and Excess Flood Insurance"  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1943491553411969347) 2025-07-11 02:04:29 UTC 1334 followers, XXX engagements "It works. From 2002 through 2024 the industry average growth rate was XXX% and the return on average equity (capital & surplus) was XXX% per NAIC data"  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1946733281749106776) 2025-07-20 00:45:57 UTC 1340 followers, XXX engagements "@Broker_Brett @Nick_Lamparelli lol I love this response"  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1949585756168519907) 2025-07-27 21:40:40 UTC 1314 followers, XX engagements "@amitisinvesting If you are Cathie why not just buy ETH Why does a fund manager need to buy a stock to issue debt to buy an asset that you want to own Hype"  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1950351398333186108) 2025-07-30 00:23:03 UTC 1342 followers, 3686 engagements "$SOFI I do get chills of 2021 flashbacks in a lot of names. Would rather see them perfect the business model than stress it that much with a $1.5B offering. I keep reading crypto M&A cant say that makes me excited"  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1950322834217038071) 2025-07-29 22:29:33 UTC 1341 followers, XXX engagements "Had to do a double take today on my favorite sorry least favorite business model - electrical bicycles and urban districts to deliver cheap meals. The moat is a centimeter deep. Is $DASH really a $XXX billion cap again 🤯"  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1948573015878312378) 2025-07-25 02:36:24 UTC 1342 followers, XXX engagements "$UBER is a cash cow but has a lot of liability issues bad faith Oh whats that lol"  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1949596533688578379) 2025-07-27 22:23:30 UTC 1319 followers, XXX engagements "If you want to see into the future give us a follow. $ACIC $HRTG $SLDE $HCI $SLDE S&P CAP IQ rate monitoring tool isn't always up to speed but we are thankfully. Here are the most up to date rate filings both "pending" and "approved" for homeowners insurance carriers in the state of Florida"  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1948853651696746549) 2025-07-25 21:11:33 UTC 1269 followers, XXX engagements "If you transact with $SKWD probably worth a look into how we view their reserve development and overall performance (especially if you are a reinsurer). $AIG $TRV $HIG $ACGL $SPNT $HG $MKL $BOW $RNR $BRK $CB $WRB $RLI $CINF $UNH $PGR $MMC $AJG $AON $ALL $IFT.TO $FRFHF $FFH.TO $BRO $WTW $ERIE $EG $CNA"  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1924914480590266629) 2025-05-20 19:45:50 UTC 1269 followers, 1663 engagements "$HIG with a really solid earnings print. Helps when you have mid market specialty SME personal lines and benefits all humming together"  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1950175383799673131) 2025-07-29 12:43:38 UTC 1341 followers, XXX engagements "$BRO really sent shockwaves through parts of the insurance market today. Nice to see a handful of our long-term compounders were all up today $ORI $WRB $FRFHF / $FFH.TO $CB $COFA.PA and $HIG finishing +3% on the day with a very solid earnings print. The P&C market is undoubtedly entering a soft market cycle based on it's current trend. If you maintain exposure to insurers for a % of the portfolio as a counter cyclical hedge it's best to focus on quality of earnings as growth is going to be harder and harder to come by"  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1950285236752765041) 2025-07-29 20:00:09 UTC 1342 followers, 1446 engagements "Wright National Flood Insurance Company (Owned by Brown & Brown $BRO) writes the most federal flood insurance in Texas at $XXX million. Similar to the securitization market Wright cede's XXX% of the first $250000 in risk to FEMA. Wright additionally cedes any private excess flood insurance to Arch Capital Group $ACGL. before you get all excited about this being an amazing short play on earnings. Wright National only writes $625000 in Excess Flood insurance premiums in Texas. If the average policy is $1000 that would put the total policies in-force at XXX. it's doubtful all XXX would be"  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1943500264897409279) 2025-07-11 02:39:06 UTC 1269 followers, 1031 engagements "$UBER $LYFT $GETR @TURO all thought they were smarter than the insurance industry. Turns out the insurance market knew what they were doing and the hyper scalers were just trying to squeeze a few points of margin and clearly had no clue how tort liability actually should be reserved. Disclosures earned a D- in all SEC filings. We have a captive dont ask management any questions. All of these entities cheaped out on insurance to create captives where they thought they were getting ripped off. Turns out they just didnt know what they were talking about"  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1949596231207919736) 2025-07-27 22:22:17 UTC 1341 followers, 1108 engagements "$WRB going hard at the MGA market yesterday. Based on our experience its rightfully so. Not all are bad but we know the space well and +80% of MGAs are pump and dump type operations that switch fronts/reinsurers every 3/5yrs. MGAs get paid on a fee so incentives for underwriting profitability are completely misaligned. It seems like Commercial Auto and Casualty is where most of the bad actors lie. If you look at the fronts and reinsurers behind these operations they are mostly names youve never heard of with balance sheets and credit risk youd never want your actual money exposed to. A lot of"  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1947625159604519013) 2025-07-22 11:49:57 UTC 1334 followers, XXX engagements "Just seeing the $TIPT news. My favorite play on a potential transaction in the insurance sector (not guaranteeing anything) in the future is $WRB with Mitsui $MITSY knocking on the door. In my opinion Mitsui didn't make a XX% investment in $WRB without the intention of scaling that up over the next 5yrs. My next let's call it a moonshot transaction is $ACGL increasing their XX% ownership in $COFA.PA / $COFA @DJ_EBITDA @blondesnmoney @EvanWhitten10 @KarstResearch"  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1942640694033568117) 2025-07-08 17:43:28 UTC 1341 followers, 4093 engagements "@DJ_EBITDA Yes using ROAE they are solid entities. I forgot to add $CB and $MKL as well"  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1946828569830629653) 2025-07-20 07:04:36 UTC 1340 followers, XXX engagements "$AMBC approved for some hefty rate increases across their Surety portfolio at +19% which is XX% of the $AMBC portfolio. Commercial Auto and Other Liability make up the rest. A positive tailwind for growth or a portfolio that can't produce an underwriting profit Either way should be good for growth as we know Commercial Auto and Other Liability are in a hard market cycle for the parts of the market they play in"  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1949544528450384312) 2025-07-27 18:56:51 UTC 1342 followers, 2009 engagements "Regional Banks by total return is effectively flat from pre-COVID levels. Credit quality has actually performed very well when you mute out all the noise. Likely more pain in the CRE (office) and Multi-Family (workforce housing / rent control) but it's a compelling area to look at with interest rate changes on the horizon"  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1950222800439988414) 2025-07-29 15:52:03 UTC 1341 followers, XXX engagements "What is nice about securitization data is that it tells folks a lot if you want to suffer through reading through the prospectus and performance data. Unrelated to $CVNA but the average principal balance at origination is $24.1k per vehicle. This is actually immensely helpful as it gives us a pretty good guide to the average vehicle insured by $ROOT. With 453800 policies in-force as of Q1 2025 that puts the total insured values at $XX Billion. This risk is spread across many states but there is a heavy concentration of risk in Texas XXXX% or $X billion in TIV exposed Georgia XXXX% or $1.2B"  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1944776814632783905) 2025-07-14 15:11:39 UTC 1340 followers, 1241 engagements "As an FYI $RLI is one of the best to ever do it started out writing contact lens insurance (that's about as niche as it gets) and they have done one of the most amazing jobs managing reserves over the years. We love the company just not the valuation at 23x PE multiple and 3.6x book. More downside than upside in our opinion but we keep the outlook neutral as they are a phenomenal organization"  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1948028722814005442) 2025-07-23 14:33:34 UTC 1319 followers, XXX engagements "One of our favorites with a strong outlook from RBC $FRFHF / $FFH.TO"  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1935354270653595954) 2025-06-18 15:09:49 UTC 1272 followers, 1191 engagements "$AIZ has XX% market share in Renters. Insurance is very fragmented (there's $$$ incentives that don't show up on a P&L for the property managers) even if you think your favorite InsurTech is setup for world domination"  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1943458135307604149) 2025-07-10 23:51:41 UTC 1341 followers, XXX engagements "@DJ_EBITDA If I had to guess $SLDE is likely undercutting some markets in terms of rate/premium. There are others that have advanced software for underwriting like $HCI that might be better at risk selection. I think $SLDE is going grow at all costs until something breaks"  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1949810371994247584) 2025-07-28 12:33:13 UTC 1341 followers, XX engagements "$MET if I had it in there was just a random comp used by Schwab and not a good peer benchmark (apologies if so). $AJG Pat Gallagher has been a phenom of a CEO and hes been scooping up brokers at high multiples but if you know how he structures the deals they are not very high multiples. Buys small regionals and how theyre structure its below the 16x once the earnout runs. Hes not gunning for massive one time windfalls. $RYAN defies all logic and even when assuming the entities wont get all of the earnout liability they were promised their deals are still priced high to 16/17x EBITDA at a"  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1944933035360559531) 2025-07-15 01:32:25 UTC 1338 followers, XXX engagements "$NVO taking it on the chin. Seems like everyone and their cousin is capable of copying this drug in one way shape or form"  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1950163616558137838) 2025-07-29 11:56:53 UTC 1342 followers, XXX engagements "$CVNA Carvana Auto Receivables Trust 2025-P1 Prime securitization with XX% sub-prime mixed in great job guys lol Meanwhile the +31 day delinquency rate continues to climb every single year for Prime and Subprime securitizations"  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1944771064371818778) 2025-07-14 14:48:48 UTC 1341 followers, 2549 engagements "Pricing in auto is just a battle because the churn is high good drivers are a marketing spend battle constantly moving pricing models around each new state jurisdiction and age group is a learning curve even if you think you have the perfect data and if you cant bundle your product with homeowners and umbrella etc you tend to get adversely selected on. Licensing out the software would be interesting. $TSLA insurance is effectively a hybrid insurer / MGA with the use of state national and competes directly with $ROOT. I think a partnership would be difficult for those reasons. Just my two cents"  [@CedarReseach](/creator/x/CedarReseach) on [X](/post/tweet/1949461890867900809) 2025-07-27 13:28:28 UTC 1284 followers, XXX engagements
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@CedarReseach Cedar Street Research
Cedar Street Research posts on X about insurance, $wrb, $ffhto, $frfhf the most. They currently have XXXXX followers and XXX posts still getting attention that total XXXXX engagements in the last XX hours.
Engagements: XXXXX #
- X Week XXXXXX +100%
- X Month XXXXXXX -XX%
Mentions: XX #
Followers: XXXXX #
- X Week XXXXX +12%
- X Month XXXXX +56%
CreatorRank: XXXXXXX #
Social Influence #
Social category influence stocks finance cryptocurrencies #5612 celebrities automotive brands technology brands travel destinations countries
Social topic influence insurance #317, $wrb #1, $ffhto, $frfhf, $ori, $cb, $bro #4, investment, $rli, $hig #2
Top assets mentioned W R Berkley Corp (WRB) Old Republic International Corporation (ORI) Cheeseball (CB) Neurobro (BRO) RLI Corp. (RLI) Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (HIG) Progressive Corp (PGR) Markel, Corp. (MKL) The Root Network (ROOT) Ryan Specialty Group, Inc. (RYAN) CNA Financial, Corp. (CNA) American International Group Inc (AIG) TrustVerse (TRV) Alliance Fan Token (ALL) Assurant, Inc. (AIZ) Aon PLC (AON) Arch Capital Group Ltd (ACGL) Everest Group, Ltd. (EG) Erie Indemnity Co. (ERIE) RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. (RNR) Accelerant Holdings (ARX) Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Agilon Health, Inc. (AGL) Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MMC) Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) Carvana Co. (CVNA) Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL) Bread Financial Holdings, Inc. (BFH) Oscar Health, Inc. (OSCR) CareCoin (CARE) Lemonade, Inc. (LMND) Allstate Corp (ALL) Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. (KNSL) RAI Finance (SOFI) Dash (DASH) Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF) UnitedHealth Group (UNH) Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company Ordinary Shares (WTW)
Top Social Posts #
Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours
"@DJ_EBITDA Its a fair point will try and run some numbers. Hartford as an example almost went under during the GFC. AIG basically did go under excluding the TARP funding they received. Argo Aspen etc underperformed for a number of years before going private as well and many others"
@CedarReseach on X 2025-07-20 00:54:51 UTC 1269 followers, XXX engagements
"There's a lot of moving parts with $AMBC a financial guaranty liability transfer awaiting regulatory approval ($420m tailwind for $AMBC if it goes through - will it get approved "we have no clue") a portfolio that's been largely unprofitable from an underwriting standpoint a lifetime supply of NOL's. At XX% book it's a bit of a roll of the dice. Will the be the best underwriters in the market one day I would say that stands a X% likelihood but can the stock do a 2x on the sale of the liabilities in the next XX months and a shift in underwriting metrics Perhaps it's definitely higher than 1%." @CedarReseach on X 2025-07-27 19:09:39 UTC 1342 followers, 1415 engagements
"$ORI doing what they do best. Q2 2025 Highlights: +18% Revenue +11% Net Premium / Fee's +2% Net Investment Income +127% Earnings $114m Underwriting Profit (+5%) Loss Ratio flat (reserve development flat YOY) Expense Ratio flat +15% Specialty Premium +5% Title Premium (Pleasantly Surprised) Book Value growth of +10% through first X months Title expense ratio still challenging would really like to see operating improvements here. It was really interesting to see commercial and residential growth increased" @CedarReseach on X 2025-07-24 14:19:59 UTC 1342 followers, XXX engagements
"We see l captives sneak their way into these companies with horrible disclosures on what they did with them and how theyre setup / capitalized. Usually theyre trying to pinch a few pennies improving operating margin but they never reserve for them correctly. $JRVR almost went bankrupt insuring them. 7/11 tried throwing one at us where they pooled all of their highest crime rate stores into a captive provided no capital got some shitty fronting paper and said were only going to take on 5:1 underwriting leverage and a brokerage 3rd party actuary said its all priced perfectly. Needless to say we" @CedarReseach on X 2025-07-26 18:50:05 UTC 1317 followers, XXX engagements
"$WRB performance excluding dividends through the previous soft rate cycle in insurance. Those who didn't deplete their reserves in the hard cycle will have a lot of excess capital in the soft cycle. Focus on earnings and reserve quality" @CedarReseach on X 2025-07-30 15:03:06 UTC 1342 followers, XXX engagements
"Everything about $RYAN screams frothy valuation" @CedarReseach on X 2025-07-11 15:40:21 UTC 1340 followers, XXX engagements
"@DJ_EBITDA I think this gives a pretty good picture. Accident Year results will vary a lot from carrier to carrier (some good some not so good) but gives a good sense of peer benchmark performance. $RLI $TRV $WRV $ORI $HIG $AIG $CNA $FRFHF / $FFH.TO $EG $ERIE $RNR $SPNT" @CedarReseach on X 2025-07-20 02:03:24 UTC 1334 followers, XXX engagements
"$ARX trading at 51x adjusted EBITDA. I'm starting to get flashbacks of the $CRCL IPO. There's a lot of momentum trading happening in the market" @CedarReseach on X 2025-07-25 16:14:29 UTC 1334 followers, XXX engagements
"Spent some time digging through Fannie Mae $FNMA securitization documents. This was dated as of 5/20/25. There are way more exciting things to do in life. Seeing a lot of reports that asset values in Florida are down as well as parts of Texas. Most of the loans that were securitized by $FMNA sat on the books for XX to XX months before being securitized. I struggle to believe the homes in Florida have an average LTV of 76%. Just looking at some general Zillow data that's out there one would have to argue it's much higher. It seems like 10-20% of these securitizations are close to or above 100%" @CedarReseach on X 2025-07-21 19:01:21 UTC 1338 followers, 1962 engagements
"Will he respond No. Does he listen seems to be Yes" @CedarReseach on X 2025-07-11 15:26:56 UTC 1334 followers, XXX engagements
"Hopefully the print isn't too small this is what I would define as "cash flow underwriting". P&C Combined consistently over XXX% and operating ratio fairly healthy due to net investment income. $CNA produced $XXX billion in underwriting losses and $XXXX billion in net investment income from Q1 2016 to Q1 2025. The business model seems to "work" but why would anyone want to pay a multiple on fixed income yields" @CedarReseach on X 2025-07-19 20:57:37 UTC 1269 followers, XXX engagements
"@longwalkcapital @StateFarm Last decade their market share 2x across personal and commercial auto in the U.S. $PGR" @CedarReseach on X 2025-07-30 13:19:13 UTC 1342 followers, XX engagements
"@stoked_on_waves Yeah Im not going to argue that the Beat Capital guys are actually really good operators in London but the US underwriting has been questionable to say the least" @CedarReseach on X 2025-07-27 19:31:12 UTC 1315 followers, XX engagements
"And if you do any due diligence on their reinsurance credit risk you'll find it's a significant amount of un-rated collateralized or weak offshore reinsurance partners. Relm for instance is an underfunded offshore reinsurer out of the Bermuda that focuses on Crypto Cannabis and Psychedelic's with around $50m in surplus" @CedarReseach on X 2025-07-22 13:43:05 UTC 1342 followers, XXX engagements
"It will be interesting to see where sub-prime consumer credit trends not a space we like right now even with lower interest rates on the horizon. $BFH net loss rate is back at 2008 GFC levels as cited in their SEC Filings (see below) and indicate a prolonged continuation could cause a material adverse impact on the business. I was always trained to aim at super prime and it's never failed me. When XX% of your credit's are sub-prime and XX% of those deep sub-prime it's a difficult environment to navigate. $BFH has lost some large partnership contract's recently (Example: BJ's and Wayfair) and" @CedarReseach on X 2025-07-08 14:33:01 UTC 1269 followers, XXX engagements
"If you know the industry most markets see Demotech as a rating agency of last resort. Just like when an Insured is notified if an insurer is backed by a state guaranty fund or not (there is a warning) it's not the same with rating agencies. I was blown away when I saw that "It rates XX% of the insurers A for "exceptional" or the even better A Prime or A Double Prime". I was further blown away that "Insurers it rated were 30x as likely to become insolvent". These ratings aren't worth the digital paper they are issued on. Maybe time for a disclosure change when a consumer or business buys" @CedarReseach on X 2025-07-29 15:44:09 UTC 1342 followers, XXX engagements
"@elonmusk can we shove a neuralink in $TSLA insurance Rather than perform surgery you can buy $ROOT for around 1x forward sales on two companies growing like a weed" @CedarReseach on X 2025-07-27 21:40:19 UTC 1315 followers, XXX engagements
"@ebitdaddy90 $FFH.TO has been at it since the 80s doing a similar model mini $BRK $MKL not too far off" @CedarReseach on X 2025-06-05 02:40:12 UTC 1341 followers, 4027 engagements
"$KFS is this the lowest of the lower middle market public entity / private equity model using NOLs to fund a well lets call it a unique incubator / roll up strategy I feel like the warranty business just kinda funds everything Hard to slap a value on this one. Open to the communities thoughts" @CedarReseach on X 2025-07-27 20:00:57 UTC 1319 followers, XXX engagements
"Noticed $MKL has a lot of issues with Other Liability - Claims Made portfolio. Talked to some folks in the industry and it sounds like there are a lot of problems the term layoff came up a few times. Looked at the reserve development on the portfolio and it's certainly facing a fair amount of adverse development. Many on X don't know about this but there was utter mania in the dumbest market that existed called the Intellectual Property Credit Insurance market a two years ago. IP is used as collateral for a loan and insurers were dumb enough to insure the credit risk if the collateral fell" @CedarReseach on X 2025-07-24 14:42:52 UTC 1342 followers, 1573 engagements
"@ath33 @amitisinvesting A fund manager has virtually no cost of capital theres cheaper ways to gain leverage" @CedarReseach on X 2025-07-30 00:49:09 UTC 1342 followers, XXX engagements
"$AGL hope the market realizes this company is effectively bankrupt. If you look at their reserves and focus on the consistent trend of adverse development one would have to assume with more growth targeted for in 2025 that losses + adverse development will wipe out their capital" @CedarReseach on X 2025-04-10 16:23:00 UTC 1341 followers, 1593 engagements
"It will be really interesting to see if Homeowners rates stay flat in Florida in 2026. Seems like the top is in but rates appear very healthy at the moment. $UVE $PGR $SLDE $HCI $ALL" @CedarReseach on X 2025-07-19 21:18:08 UTC 1323 followers, XXX engagements
"We've been tracking the rate change data in the Other Liability - Occurrence (Casualty) market across the most of the top XX carriers such as $CB $TRV $WRB $BRK $FRFHF / $MKL $HIG $AIG $ORI. Based on the regulator "approved" rate filings we are showing the approved rate increases across the listed carriers has averaged +4.8% per year since Q4 2020. As claims severity is outpacing this at a healthy clip it seems like the market is very soft. What many in the market see from the rate updates from broker earnings calls $MMC $AON $AJG $BRO $RYAN $WTW are the "premium" changes which does not" @CedarReseach on X 2025-07-21 21:03:53 UTC 1323 followers, XXX engagements
"More wins for the folks at $FRFHF / $FFH.TO Gulf Insurance has been a very big growth engine for them in recent years" @CedarReseach on X 2025-06-24 14:28:24 UTC 1342 followers, 4208 engagements
"A carrier that fly's under the radar $AIZ seems like they might know how to use software for their renters product (see LAE Ratio 3%). X% acquisition cost ratio. $AIZ writes $XXXXX million (net earned premium) in Renters so over $XXX million in GWP. Operating ratio will knock your socks off. $AIZ distribution is focused on partnerships with commercial property managers and focuses on imbedded software solutions. @Nick_Lamparelli" @CedarReseach on X 2025-07-10 23:47:28 UTC 1341 followers, XXX engagements
"We posted on Agilon $AGL awhile back noting that we anticipated carriers had an inflation problem in the Medicare advantage market. We stay out of health insurance altogether from an investment perspective as we've never been comfortable with the regulatory risk. I know their are a lot of bulls out there on $OSCR (we personally like what the company has accomplished - but they are at the will of regulators and medical cost inflation) but when a marketplace's pricing is structurally off and adverse development is around the corner - it's not a good scenario for the health insurer. I know the" @CedarReseach on X 2025-07-11 20:12:24 UTC 1341 followers, 1283 engagements
"@DJ_EBITDA $ORI and $WRB have A++ management teams in place they are the silent rock stars of the insurance industry. $IGIC I'll have to take a look at" @CedarReseach on X 2025-07-24 13:29:07 UTC 1335 followers, XXX engagements
"$CARE whats the over under this guy Justice actually has the collateral to pay off Carter Bancshare" @CedarReseach on X 2025-07-07 12:12:42 UTC 1306 followers, XXX engagements
"We confirmed this last week in some of our SERFF rate filing data but we actually think the market in terms of "mechanical" rate change is flat to negative as brokers tend to comment more on "pricing" changes without accounting for exposure changes. Per $BRO Q2 premium changes were basically flat and down from Q1 premium changes. We believe this lines up with our forward looking data on approved and more importantly pending rate change data" @CedarReseach on X 2025-07-29 14:35:31 UTC 1341 followers, XXX engagements
"@Broker_Brett @Nick_Lamparelli Tony was a true legend" @CedarReseach on X 2025-07-27 21:42:57 UTC 1314 followers, XX engagements
"I'm convinced the market has absolutely no clue how this companies reinsurance works. Here's a benchmark. $ARX has reached meme status. $TSU.TO 14x $AON 15x $BRO 20x $RYAN 24x" @CedarReseach on X 2025-07-25 16:18:36 UTC 1342 followers, XXX engagements
"It's the blind leading the blind in Commercial Auto. $RLI CEO coming out swinging saying he basically doesn't understand why MGA's are so hot for Commercial Auto. Industry Schedule P Data suggests it's one of the worst performing lines in insurance. Nice follow up to $WRB commentary on the MGA market. Private Equity firms just want growth they don't really care how they get it and they don't care who they flip it to even if the revenue is built on a house of cards" @CedarReseach on X 2025-07-23 14:28:29 UTC 1334 followers, XXX engagements
"Anyone who thinks MGA's are profitable for reinsurers should take a second look we will be publishing some Schedule P Data on the various Hybrid Fronting companies that participate in the U.S. Marketplace. We can assure you they are great at making fee income and terrible at producing underwriting profits for their reinsurers. Here's a little taste from $TSU.TO otherwise known as Trisura Group Ltd. Below is nothing but adverse development and horrible accident year loss ratio performance for (1) All Lines (2) Commercial Auto Liability (3) Other Liability - Occurrence and (4) Commercial" @CedarReseach on X 2025-07-22 13:40:28 UTC 1342 followers, 5672 engagements
"As cited by $WRB management California regulators approved a +8.7% rate increase which is a rare move in the workers compensation industry as it's been plagued by nothing but state rate decreases for the better half of a decade. What's fascinating here is that workers compensation has been subsidizing most of the casualty results as work comp has experienced a significant amount of favorable development while casualty has faced a significant amount of adverse development over the years. The work comp market is $XX billion in direct written premium as of 2024 California is $XX billion or 20.3%" @CedarReseach on X 2025-07-22 13:22:23 UTC 1334 followers, 1305 engagements
"@JerryCap Putting aside their overall business and strategy I love the product for analyzing banks and insurance companies" @CedarReseach on X 2025-07-28 10:33:41 UTC 1328 followers, XXX engagements
"New updated Homeowners filing in Wisconsin with another reference to "system constraints". Not a knock I would genuinely like to understand what these system constraints are at $LMND as it seems to be a common theme with their Homeowners filings" @CedarReseach on X 2025-07-28 21:19:21 UTC 1341 followers, 1490 engagements
"@elonmusk please tell $TSLA insurance that they should buy $ROOT and simple growing pain mistakes like this can be avoided with a team that's experienced all of this before" @CedarReseach on X 2025-07-24 13:22:29 UTC 1307 followers, XXX engagements
"To be clear these are $WRB statutory filings because a wise person had asked why these look different than the reported figures in their SEC filings. Just wanted to clarify" @CedarReseach on X 2025-07-30 15:34:05 UTC 1342 followers, XXX engagements
"$PGR $ALL @StateFarm and for fun $ROOT. Could have included GEICO and USAA but forgot and ran out of time. Seeing "accelerating" rate softening in the personal auto market in the California Texas Florida and New York which represents XX% of the $XXX billion personal auto market. Rates include "approved" and "pending" rate filing data. Rates are still at all time highs so we anticipate strong combined ratios for 2025 but we anticipate loss ratio's will creep up on the back half of the year and into 2026" @CedarReseach on X 2025-07-29 13:42:30 UTC 1342 followers, 2973 engagements
"@longwalkcapital @StateFarm Exactly and $PGR has been investing in technology forever it's not this dinosaur legacy insurance carrier. $XXX million in capitalized internal-use software investments as of 2024. $XXX million if you include internal use software licensing as well" @CedarReseach on X 2025-07-30 13:25:40 UTC 1342 followers, XX engagements
"Yeah I think its sector specific but in the aggregate if you read $MMC $AON $BRO $RYAN $KNSL and some other carrier earnings calls from Q1 they were all publicly disclosing property CAT rates coming down the fastest and commercial property at large seeing softening. Certain property types and regions resilient I have no doubt just seems to be soft in the aggregate and it makes sense everytime reinsurance gets cheap or cheaper and ceding commissions increase due to competition it gives carriers the ability to drop rate as their reinsurance economics improve a lot" @CedarReseach on X 2025-07-13 03:54:10 UTC 1317 followers, XXX engagements
"Doing some interesting research. Checking some of my holdings for potential Flood exposure in Texas. Don't expect much news out of Chubb $CB they have a whopping 1225 policies in-force in the state of Texas covered for Primary and Excess Flood Insurance" @CedarReseach on X 2025-07-11 02:04:29 UTC 1334 followers, XXX engagements
"It works. From 2002 through 2024 the industry average growth rate was XXX% and the return on average equity (capital & surplus) was XXX% per NAIC data" @CedarReseach on X 2025-07-20 00:45:57 UTC 1340 followers, XXX engagements
"@Broker_Brett @Nick_Lamparelli lol I love this response" @CedarReseach on X 2025-07-27 21:40:40 UTC 1314 followers, XX engagements
"@amitisinvesting If you are Cathie why not just buy ETH Why does a fund manager need to buy a stock to issue debt to buy an asset that you want to own Hype" @CedarReseach on X 2025-07-30 00:23:03 UTC 1342 followers, 3686 engagements
"$SOFI I do get chills of 2021 flashbacks in a lot of names. Would rather see them perfect the business model than stress it that much with a $1.5B offering. I keep reading crypto M&A cant say that makes me excited" @CedarReseach on X 2025-07-29 22:29:33 UTC 1341 followers, XXX engagements
"Had to do a double take today on my favorite sorry least favorite business model - electrical bicycles and urban districts to deliver cheap meals. The moat is a centimeter deep. Is $DASH really a $XXX billion cap again 🤯" @CedarReseach on X 2025-07-25 02:36:24 UTC 1342 followers, XXX engagements
"$UBER is a cash cow but has a lot of liability issues bad faith Oh whats that lol" @CedarReseach on X 2025-07-27 22:23:30 UTC 1319 followers, XXX engagements
"If you want to see into the future give us a follow. $ACIC $HRTG $SLDE $HCI $SLDE S&P CAP IQ rate monitoring tool isn't always up to speed but we are thankfully. Here are the most up to date rate filings both "pending" and "approved" for homeowners insurance carriers in the state of Florida" @CedarReseach on X 2025-07-25 21:11:33 UTC 1269 followers, XXX engagements
"If you transact with $SKWD probably worth a look into how we view their reserve development and overall performance (especially if you are a reinsurer). $AIG $TRV $HIG $ACGL $SPNT $HG $MKL $BOW $RNR $BRK $CB $WRB $RLI $CINF $UNH $PGR $MMC $AJG $AON $ALL $IFT.TO $FRFHF $FFH.TO $BRO $WTW $ERIE $EG $CNA" @CedarReseach on X 2025-05-20 19:45:50 UTC 1269 followers, 1663 engagements
"$HIG with a really solid earnings print. Helps when you have mid market specialty SME personal lines and benefits all humming together" @CedarReseach on X 2025-07-29 12:43:38 UTC 1341 followers, XXX engagements
"$BRO really sent shockwaves through parts of the insurance market today. Nice to see a handful of our long-term compounders were all up today $ORI $WRB $FRFHF / $FFH.TO $CB $COFA.PA and $HIG finishing +3% on the day with a very solid earnings print. The P&C market is undoubtedly entering a soft market cycle based on it's current trend. If you maintain exposure to insurers for a % of the portfolio as a counter cyclical hedge it's best to focus on quality of earnings as growth is going to be harder and harder to come by" @CedarReseach on X 2025-07-29 20:00:09 UTC 1342 followers, 1446 engagements
"Wright National Flood Insurance Company (Owned by Brown & Brown $BRO) writes the most federal flood insurance in Texas at $XXX million. Similar to the securitization market Wright cede's XXX% of the first $250000 in risk to FEMA. Wright additionally cedes any private excess flood insurance to Arch Capital Group $ACGL. before you get all excited about this being an amazing short play on earnings. Wright National only writes $625000 in Excess Flood insurance premiums in Texas. If the average policy is $1000 that would put the total policies in-force at XXX. it's doubtful all XXX would be" @CedarReseach on X 2025-07-11 02:39:06 UTC 1269 followers, 1031 engagements
"$UBER $LYFT $GETR @TURO all thought they were smarter than the insurance industry. Turns out the insurance market knew what they were doing and the hyper scalers were just trying to squeeze a few points of margin and clearly had no clue how tort liability actually should be reserved. Disclosures earned a D- in all SEC filings. We have a captive dont ask management any questions. All of these entities cheaped out on insurance to create captives where they thought they were getting ripped off. Turns out they just didnt know what they were talking about" @CedarReseach on X 2025-07-27 22:22:17 UTC 1341 followers, 1108 engagements
"$WRB going hard at the MGA market yesterday. Based on our experience its rightfully so. Not all are bad but we know the space well and +80% of MGAs are pump and dump type operations that switch fronts/reinsurers every 3/5yrs. MGAs get paid on a fee so incentives for underwriting profitability are completely misaligned. It seems like Commercial Auto and Casualty is where most of the bad actors lie. If you look at the fronts and reinsurers behind these operations they are mostly names youve never heard of with balance sheets and credit risk youd never want your actual money exposed to. A lot of" @CedarReseach on X 2025-07-22 11:49:57 UTC 1334 followers, XXX engagements
"Just seeing the $TIPT news. My favorite play on a potential transaction in the insurance sector (not guaranteeing anything) in the future is $WRB with Mitsui $MITSY knocking on the door. In my opinion Mitsui didn't make a XX% investment in $WRB without the intention of scaling that up over the next 5yrs. My next let's call it a moonshot transaction is $ACGL increasing their XX% ownership in $COFA.PA / $COFA @DJ_EBITDA @blondesnmoney @EvanWhitten10 @KarstResearch" @CedarReseach on X 2025-07-08 17:43:28 UTC 1341 followers, 4093 engagements
"@DJ_EBITDA Yes using ROAE they are solid entities. I forgot to add $CB and $MKL as well" @CedarReseach on X 2025-07-20 07:04:36 UTC 1340 followers, XXX engagements
"$AMBC approved for some hefty rate increases across their Surety portfolio at +19% which is XX% of the $AMBC portfolio. Commercial Auto and Other Liability make up the rest. A positive tailwind for growth or a portfolio that can't produce an underwriting profit Either way should be good for growth as we know Commercial Auto and Other Liability are in a hard market cycle for the parts of the market they play in" @CedarReseach on X 2025-07-27 18:56:51 UTC 1342 followers, 2009 engagements
"Regional Banks by total return is effectively flat from pre-COVID levels. Credit quality has actually performed very well when you mute out all the noise. Likely more pain in the CRE (office) and Multi-Family (workforce housing / rent control) but it's a compelling area to look at with interest rate changes on the horizon" @CedarReseach on X 2025-07-29 15:52:03 UTC 1341 followers, XXX engagements
"What is nice about securitization data is that it tells folks a lot if you want to suffer through reading through the prospectus and performance data. Unrelated to $CVNA but the average principal balance at origination is $24.1k per vehicle. This is actually immensely helpful as it gives us a pretty good guide to the average vehicle insured by $ROOT. With 453800 policies in-force as of Q1 2025 that puts the total insured values at $XX Billion. This risk is spread across many states but there is a heavy concentration of risk in Texas XXXX% or $X billion in TIV exposed Georgia XXXX% or $1.2B" @CedarReseach on X 2025-07-14 15:11:39 UTC 1340 followers, 1241 engagements
"As an FYI $RLI is one of the best to ever do it started out writing contact lens insurance (that's about as niche as it gets) and they have done one of the most amazing jobs managing reserves over the years. We love the company just not the valuation at 23x PE multiple and 3.6x book. More downside than upside in our opinion but we keep the outlook neutral as they are a phenomenal organization" @CedarReseach on X 2025-07-23 14:33:34 UTC 1319 followers, XXX engagements
"One of our favorites with a strong outlook from RBC $FRFHF / $FFH.TO" @CedarReseach on X 2025-06-18 15:09:49 UTC 1272 followers, 1191 engagements
"$AIZ has XX% market share in Renters. Insurance is very fragmented (there's $$$ incentives that don't show up on a P&L for the property managers) even if you think your favorite InsurTech is setup for world domination" @CedarReseach on X 2025-07-10 23:51:41 UTC 1341 followers, XXX engagements
"@DJ_EBITDA If I had to guess $SLDE is likely undercutting some markets in terms of rate/premium. There are others that have advanced software for underwriting like $HCI that might be better at risk selection. I think $SLDE is going grow at all costs until something breaks" @CedarReseach on X 2025-07-28 12:33:13 UTC 1341 followers, XX engagements
"$MET if I had it in there was just a random comp used by Schwab and not a good peer benchmark (apologies if so). $AJG Pat Gallagher has been a phenom of a CEO and hes been scooping up brokers at high multiples but if you know how he structures the deals they are not very high multiples. Buys small regionals and how theyre structure its below the 16x once the earnout runs. Hes not gunning for massive one time windfalls. $RYAN defies all logic and even when assuming the entities wont get all of the earnout liability they were promised their deals are still priced high to 16/17x EBITDA at a" @CedarReseach on X 2025-07-15 01:32:25 UTC 1338 followers, XXX engagements
"$NVO taking it on the chin. Seems like everyone and their cousin is capable of copying this drug in one way shape or form" @CedarReseach on X 2025-07-29 11:56:53 UTC 1342 followers, XXX engagements
"$CVNA Carvana Auto Receivables Trust 2025-P1 Prime securitization with XX% sub-prime mixed in great job guys lol Meanwhile the +31 day delinquency rate continues to climb every single year for Prime and Subprime securitizations" @CedarReseach on X 2025-07-14 14:48:48 UTC 1341 followers, 2549 engagements
"Pricing in auto is just a battle because the churn is high good drivers are a marketing spend battle constantly moving pricing models around each new state jurisdiction and age group is a learning curve even if you think you have the perfect data and if you cant bundle your product with homeowners and umbrella etc you tend to get adversely selected on. Licensing out the software would be interesting. $TSLA insurance is effectively a hybrid insurer / MGA with the use of state national and competes directly with $ROOT. I think a partnership would be difficult for those reasons. Just my two cents" @CedarReseach on X 2025-07-27 13:28:28 UTC 1284 followers, XXX engagements