[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.] [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/twitter/BlackScholesMan) "@Vmaxpax Add $bah to the list. Once the shutdown ends it will endless staff Aug work" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1980346862940094535) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-10-20T18:54Z 3274 followers, XXX engagements "$CODA If subsurface drones become a thing this memes. They make some of the most advance sonar imaging possible. All the primes will want to use their tech in their drones" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1961524605858070911) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-08-29T20:21Z 3219 followers, 7371 engagements "I own all of them. $CODA doesn't have debt and is growing: Just waiting on that inflection point. $MPTI - profitable business with nice margins with catalyst ahead of it. $MOBX is speculative but seems at an inflection point that the market is missing because it lacks analyst coverage" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1962591144774410282) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-09-01T18:59Z 3219 followers, XXX engagements "Seems very suspicious and something I should spend tomorrow researching on how to profit from it" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1964438161268101209) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-09-06T21:18Z 3219 followers, 6797 engagements "$CODA - Not "IF" but "When"" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1965104364131078368) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-09-08T17:26Z 3219 followers, 1941 engagements "Eventually $CODA 🤝Anduril" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1967245880710590476) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-09-14T15:15Z 3219 followers, 2533 engagements "@sawdirt They have already moved ALOT and any hint of a cease-fire and they will get cut in half. Only name I am in right now are $EXA (which I recommend buying on this sell off on convertible bonds) and $KOG" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1970577957363011764) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-09-23T19:56Z 3219 followers, XXX engagements "$CODA breaking upper range on double normal volume. Has it time come 🤞" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1975650623376007182) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-10-07T19:53Z 3219 followers, 3965 engagements "$HO/Thales is making an identical system" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1976725736477405231) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-10-10T19:05Z 3220 followers, 1615 engagements "Played #battlefield6 last night with my friends and $ea did a great job on the game. We all liked the game. If Activision was still public I would short it ;-)" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1976990489636401356) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-10-11T12:37Z 3219 followers, 1193 engagements "I've never not made money buying $kdef below it's 50ma. Maybe this time will be different. However in Hanwha we trust :-)" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1978100944626708809) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-10-14T14:09Z 3219 followers, XXX engagements "@MsIaboni Hard to say. Not sure how deep there AI is integrated into $LPTH hardware. If is *very* deep then you get the idea of $LPTH taking them out directly. I needed some losses to harvest so I took it on $MTEK" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1978161975617019938) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-10-14T18:12Z 3219 followers, 1586 engagements "$KYIV Because the Algos & degens will love it" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1978546843626754414) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-10-15T19:41Z 3219 followers, 1910 engagements "Accurate summation of todays price action. $CODA green though" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1978914362069860608) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-10-16T20:02Z 3219 followers, 1160 engagements "Which is why they should send JASSM-ER's instead. A) Cheaper B) In production system C) Can be fitted to existing F-16's while tomahawks require a new launching platform. It doesn't have the same range as tomahawks but you still get a X ton warhead delivered XXX miles" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1978959759437918215) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-10-16T23:02Z 3219 followers, 1970 engagements "I was playing bf6 last night and they had one moment in the campaign where they shout out "get the switchblades in the air". Then you launch s300/600 and take out an incoming convey. Amazing how the explicitly embedded $avav tech into the game" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1979916810150433268) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-10-19T14:25Z 3219 followers, 1079 engagements "@taobanker At least you have to ask Claude to look at chat history's" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1980017842968834162) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-10-19T21:06Z 3219 followers, XXX engagements "Just a measly 1000% increase annually on revenue $dro.ax" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1980045932826865679) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-10-19T22:58Z 3219 followers, 4222 engagements "Bout back into $asm.ax after the offering. It cleaned up their balance sheet quite a bit and there was this little nugget in the presentation: "US DoD funding decision for US Metals Plant H2 2025" Given Australian pm meets trump tomorrow. Basset comments on ree with allies. Given equity raise timing. Feels like this is all coming together for them. High r/r with X% sizing. Still like $lyc.ax but am red on the idea so far" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1980056992908554363) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-10-19T23:42Z 3219 followers, 1782 engagements "Wow - A task force My top Counter-UAV picks: $EOS.AX - hard-kill with both 30mm cannon and laser $LPTH - Sensors (Highest conviction on sensors) $DRS - Sensors $TDY - Sensors $SPXC - EW against drones" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1961148512344678647) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-08-28T19:26Z 3276 followers, 10.3K engagements "Ok - I've been silent on it as I figured it was normal profit taking. However this selling on $eos.ax has gotten to absurd levels. Not really seeing any news. Something I am missing I trimmed in the 9's but still have a XX% postion" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1978264172912640500) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-10-15T00:58Z 3276 followers, 3218 engagements "BBB introduces work compliance rules that are difficult to track and $MMS will mostly likely tapped to manage it. Here are some interesting data-points: CBO estimates XX MILLION Americans will lose Medicaid coverage. That's XX million appeals case reviews and administrative processes. Current Medicaid admin costs: X% of $800B program = $48B New complexity could push this to XX% = $80B market +$32B in NEW administrative spending Also $MMS does alot of contract work with the VA which I expect will start having issues after October fiscal year roll's over" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1942281869854130576) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-07-07T17:57Z 3265 followers, 5906 engagements "Seems complicated. Probably something $mms can handle" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1952529585750311037) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-08-05T00:38Z 3271 followers, XXX engagements "BOOM on $MMS Straight from the earnings presentation:" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1953450498238849045) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-08-07T13:37Z 3271 followers, 4963 engagements "Kinda surprised no analysis has said anything on the Big Beautiful Bill impact on $MMS. This is what I came up with for finical impacts if the contracts flow their way: +$1B annual revenue by 2027 (vs. $5.3B base) XX% revenue growth above current baseline Government contracts = 11-13% EBITDA margins Additional $115M+ EBITDA annually Stock Impact: Current: 9.4x EV/EBITDA (below 11-12x historical) Target: $109-$158 (vs. $XX current) +40-100% upside over 18-24 months" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1955356041278812514) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-08-12T19:49Z 3271 followers, 3149 engagements "There is still time to get in on this The algo's/LLM cannot comprehend the true meaning of this task order. They will default to the primes which is the WRONG answer Investing is about waiting for that right pitch.this is it You have Alpha over the machines $EOS.ax $DRS $TDY $LASR $LPTH $AVAV" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1961209326527213984) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-08-28T23:28Z 3272 followers, 16.6K engagements "3) $LPATH They make both cameras for drones but also a unique camera that can detect drones and the air moment they cause. Also does not rely on exotic rare earths from China" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1961487633143480610) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-08-29T17:54Z 3271 followers, 1937 engagements "4) $MRCY & $DRS They make sensors and make specialized processing equipment that will end up in any solution" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1961487634464731364) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-08-29T17:54Z 3272 followers, 1834 engagements "So now that I covered C-UAVs I wanted to circle back to Drone manufactures. I dont have too many of these because I think the class X & X segment will be commoditized. I think the value add here will be in the larger class X & X segment. I(will cover pics/shoves next Again in ranking of conviction" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1961495540127924278) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-08-29T18:25Z 3271 followers, 4662 engagements "Forgot to add it here on the thread but I also own $EXA. They are based in E.U. and do alot with sub-service/under water drones" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1961517116919525600) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-08-29T19:51Z 3271 followers, 1367 engagements "Still digging but this seems like a new vertical that just got unlocked on $mobx. This puts them on every navy ship" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1962865303315984859) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-09-02T13:08Z 3271 followers, 4154 engagements "I am not normally a software guy but did pick up a small amount of $GLOB today. Stock has been in a brutal drawdown but I think there is ember of potential with them being OpenAI first Latin American partner" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1965142091593646522) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-09-08T19:55Z 3271 followers, 1597 engagements "@John_A_Ridge @vmsalama Once IRIS-T HYDEF comes online it become essentially an equivalent system to Patriot" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1969431552854524359) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-09-20T16:00Z 3271 followers, 1806 engagements "$HAG benefits the most from this IMO. The IRIS-T complex will be a direct competitor to the patriot complex once HYDEF interceptors come online. In fact the projected price point will be 1/3 less. However they are ways out on development. Unless there was a compelling reason to accelerate timelines 👇" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1969433029450874979) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-09-20T16:06Z 3271 followers, 2457 engagements "@Lehi88 @JeffGabel Only play I have is $CODA as most of the names are private" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1970845952572326301) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-09-24T13:41Z 3271 followers, XXX engagements "This is the reason to own $MMS. They did a blurb on it in there last slide deck but zero analysis comment on it. The work rules requirements in the BBB bill are huge. $MMS specializes in that type of stuff and I expect they will get significant regulatory capture from it" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1970977389686685817) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-09-24T22:23Z 3271 followers, 1100 engagements "With the Pentagon pushing to quadruple Patriot missile production here's my small-cap supplier portfolio: $MOBX - Electrical components (Spacecraft Components) $PKE - Ablative materials (sole-source C2B fabric) (LOVE LOVE LOVE this one for multiple reasons) $MRCY - Digital signal processing (LTAMDS radar) $MPTI - RF components. Trades thin so be warned $FEIM - Precision timing $CVU - Fin control surfaces (structural assemblies). Trades thin so be warned" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1973106436931477913) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-09-30T19:23Z 3271 followers, 12.3K engagements "Also $drs is the prime over this and handles the optic package. It is a core position for me" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1974130201480364115) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-10-03T15:11Z 3271 followers, 1341 engagements "$DRS - all the headlines on germanium import issues then this in the G/A" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1974985354924241197) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-10-05T23:49Z 3270 followers, 1653 engagements "Out of $MOBX. I have no idea what is management is doing at this point and I give up" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1975199558004310301) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-10-06T14:00Z 3271 followers, 2075 engagements "$NVX is the clear winner on this if this is true" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1976249697120702833) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-10-09T11:33Z 3271 followers, 6103 engagements "Too soon on $DRS 🤝 $LPTH talk" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1976375895238553946) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-10-09T19:55Z 3271 followers, 3029 engagements "Note from $PKE CC last night. Strongly suspect either A) ICBM modernization or B) Hypersonic missiles with $KTOS. "Once in a lifetime" = the birth of an entirely new weapons category" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1976699905096736886) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-10-10T17:22Z 3271 followers, 1539 engagements "@Omnitrader69 On volume too. It one of the few names I own at 5%. I talked to a really smart dude that was up to 30%. If this mineral issues persist look for $DRS to come along and cut a deal. sub billion on this company MC is absurdly cheep" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1976746547783299312) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-10-10T20:27Z 3270 followers, XXX engagements "@Citrini7 $DRS has several years. That was on the last earnings call" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1977458952582336785) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-10-12T19:38Z 3271 followers, 1468 engagements "Picked up some $lyc.ax tonight. Yes I'm very late to the idea. I acknowledge that. However with more capital injection from sovereign wealth funds they have the potential to double output with existing projects fairly quickly" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1977527691013136544) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-10-13T00:11Z 3274 followers, 1376 engagements "In addition to $lyc.ax I also grabbed some $asm.ax as well. They are not as richly valued and actually refine a highly specific product that only china produces for batteries. They are not quite full scale production yet in Korea but again: the more capital thrown at it the faster they can ramp vs peers" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1977528706139590801) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-10-13T00:15Z 3274 followers, 6448 engagements "We are entering into a period of a lot of noise when it comes to rare earths. The intelligent investor has to be able to separate miners vs refiners. Business like $mp currently mine rare earth here and ship them over China to be refined. That is the problem" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1977534687661936675) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-10-13T00:39Z 3271 followers, 2735 engagements "Businesses like $lyc.ax both mine and refine the product. This is where the puck is moving to. This is where we are going to see Capital investment from sovereign wealth funds. The world needs refined product" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1977534689830391820) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-10-13T00:39Z 3274 followers, 1109 engagements "Both $mrcy and $drs debuting ai edge sensors today. I'm very interested in that" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1977703555155824810) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-10-13T11:50Z 3271 followers, 1486 engagements "Out on $asm.ax. got a nearly XX% on three day hold. Shifted profits to $lyc.ax as that actually has fairly strong cash flow ahead of it. Especially if it can scale it's production in the pipeline already" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1978263568110776769) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-10-15T00:56Z 3274 followers, 2382 engagements "Secretary of Treasury: we must be sufficient with our allies on rare earths. He's outright telling you to buy $lyc.ax" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1978442498453229929) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-10-15T12:47Z 3274 followers, 2292 engagements "Picked up 140/135 put spread on $JBHT ahead of earnings tonight. Have a feeling all the work that ICE & Transpiration department are doing might hit margins" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1978538229671342148) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-10-15T19:07Z 3261 followers, 1656 engagements "$EOS.AX powering the sensor package in partnership with $DRS. This is absolutely well thought out piece of kit on a common platform. I could easily see Army/Marines interest in it as it works with an existing eco system of JLTV/Bushmaster chain gun/APKWS/Stingers" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1978917474167869658) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-10-16T20:14Z 3271 followers, 2554 engagements "It will take at least X to X years to figure out. I've been mostly focusing on players that have upside leverage to increasing capacity fairly quickly. I'm red on the name but I really like $lyc.ax. XXX% sizing and willing to go X. Expect a u.s./Australian agreement when their pm comes over" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1978977223433666975) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-10-17T00:11Z 3274 followers, XXX engagements "Big for $PKE and positive for $CVU to a smaller extent" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1979274601185026545) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-10-17T19:53Z 3270 followers, 3118 engagements "@aalharbikw @81Ninjau Listen to the $DRS earnings call to understand the full impact" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1979555682702487587) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-10-18T14:30Z 3271 followers, XXX engagements "And their you have it. I expect similar response from the other E.U. members. Trump's naked alignment with Putin's demands may finally galvanize European resolve IMO. Should see a floor in the E.U. defense names on the back of this. Also Ukraine has been doing alot of JV ventures with E.U. primes that can eventually phase out what they buy from the U.S. on most systems. On a longer term basis they will be direct competitors with U.S. primes" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1980011669011963988) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-10-19T20:42Z 3271 followers, 5266 engagements "$RHM.EUR = forward p/e XXXX $qq.LSE = XX $BAESY = 22" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1980011670874272100) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-10-19T20:42Z 3264 followers, XXX engagements "$ASM.AX catalysts: - Balance sheet is clean (debt paid off) - Phase X expansion fully funded ($204M revenue target) - Actual customer traction (29t delivered real orders) DoD decision has timeline (H2 2025 = weeks away) - Insiders buying $4.4M at $XXXX - PM-Trump meeting today (imminent catalyst)" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1980253902109872509) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-10-20T12:44Z 3265 followers, XXX engagements "Good for $EE as they focus on natural gas imports on offshore re-gasification" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1980267050892169572) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-10-20T13:37Z 3265 followers, 1293 engagements "If $ASM.AX gets $500M from this package: Funding risk eliminated Pentagon partnership confirmed US operations greenlit Fair value would be: A$2-5B range (5-14x current) Even at A$1.5B (4x current = A$6.60/share) ASM would still be: Cheaper than Lynas on EV/production basis Cheaper than MP on EV/resource value Trading at discount to "strategic asset" peers" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1980331895477981633) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-10-20T17:54Z 3271 followers, 2550 engagements "USEXIM is funding seven projects with $2.2B ($314M average each) Likely candidates for those seven: Lynas expansion (certain) ASM Dubbo Project (highly likely) ASM US Metals Plant (possible) Arafura Nolans (likely) Iluka Eneabba (likely) Hastings Yangibana (possible) Northern Minerals Browns Range (possible) ASM could be 1-2 of those seven projects = $300-700M" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1980333129005949000) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-10-20T17:59Z 3271 followers, XXX engagements "@truthdotphd Agreed on $asm. It appeared $lcy was a sell the news fade" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1980587473425297595) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-10-21T10:50Z 3269 followers, XX engagements "To solve the problem you first have to acknowledge the problem. Interested to see how long it sits in committees" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1980699100879446147) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-10-21T18:13Z 3272 followers, 2078 engagements "@Vmaxpax lol well my hunch has been destroyed Russian refiners = world refined draws. This is the first data point that refined product be drawn down" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1981073254686347613) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-10-22T19:00Z 3271 followers, XXX engagements "My week summed up in on pic. Last two days wiped out X weeks of being right on themes. All part of the game. I did pick up some $VELO on holding the 20MA and $OUST for the same reason. Probably early with policy dysfunction out of DC. It's going to take a negative catalyst to resolve that problem and get government open again. However I expect Anthony Albanese coming to DC on Monday to be a potential catalyst for Australian REE sector Finally next week is big for $CODI with make/break deadline on XX on loan convents. Have a great weekend everyone" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1979273739444359529) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-10-17T19:50Z 3274 followers, 2625 engagements "$lmt & $lpth program" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1979526363586687461) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-10-18T12:33Z 3274 followers, 3127 engagements "And there you have it. Status quo it is. In Trump XXX he would have fired Steve Witkoff by now. All he does is regurgitate Kremlin's talking points" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1980277367298830384) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-10-20T14:18Z 3274 followers, 1796 engagements "Let's see if Octopus broadens a tentacle to $QQ.LSE" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1980760849946980832) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-10-21T22:19Z 3274 followers, 1345 engagements "The thesis for me over the last couple of weeks has been: drone sanctions against Russia's refinery complex are causing them to shift from being a net exporter of refined products to a net importer. Since gasoline is a worldwide commodity it ends up being pulled from somewhere else. This was the first data point I got that supports that thesis. Will be looking at $VLO for additional commentary tomorrow for supporting evidence" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1981075777585053775) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-10-22T19:10Z 3274 followers, 1757 engagements "$CACI at a 52w and $BAH near a 52w low. Hmmm" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1981370373502587030) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-10-23T14:41Z 3275 followers, XXX engagements "@_hustlerdoc I hope so. People smarter then me have indicated if you zeroed out the business with issues the rest of the company is worth more then it is. Plus you have the rare ear tailwind. Could easily get back to the low/mid teens from the alts rerating it" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1981128166635864070) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-10-22T22:38Z 3274 followers, XXX engagements "Picked up some $BAH today and added to $SAIC. Seeing more and more data points that indicate the government is starting to acknowledge they went to far with DOGE cuts. They have been rescinding resignation and asking people to decide if they want to run in October or not. I expect most won't and it will time to turn to the contractors to backfill" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1970847670240411935) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-09-24T13:47Z 3274 followers, 1391 engagements "picked up some $SAAB.B here. Plan to add more at XXX if it gets that low. $KOG.OSE & $AM looking interesting as well but not quite there on the charts yet" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1978463030250701153) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-10-15T14:08Z 3274 followers, XXX engagements "The importance of this is two fold 1) Lower input cost for refiners as they can get cheeper input costs 2) higher prices on selling refined product. $VLO and $PSX are my pics on this. However $EUPE.ATH is another pick that can move on this. It has a bit more beta then $VLO/$PSX" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1981078332989915427) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-10-22T19:20Z 3274 followers, XXX engagements "My take on $VLO and my thesis of drone-sanctions ripple impact: Margins expanding (Q3: +44.5% YoY) Throughput at record levels (97% utilization all-time highs) Timing matches Russian crisis (Aug-Sept) Strong beat vs estimates ($3.66 vs $2.95)" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1981339114503815616) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-10-23T12:37Z 3275 followers, 1476 engagements "@fundmyfund Love the company but the program deliverable is 1MW in FY XX. Hopefully expectations haven't gotten ungrounded" [X Link](https://x.com/BlackScholesMan/status/1981397993149657454) [@BlackScholesMan](/creator/x/BlackScholesMan) 2025-10-23T16:31Z 3275 followers, XX engagements
[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]
@BlackScholesMan
"@Vmaxpax Add $bah to the list. Once the shutdown ends it will endless staff Aug work"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-10-20T18:54Z 3274 followers, XXX engagements
"$CODA If subsurface drones become a thing this memes. They make some of the most advance sonar imaging possible. All the primes will want to use their tech in their drones"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-08-29T20:21Z 3219 followers, 7371 engagements
"I own all of them. $CODA doesn't have debt and is growing: Just waiting on that inflection point. $MPTI - profitable business with nice margins with catalyst ahead of it. $MOBX is speculative but seems at an inflection point that the market is missing because it lacks analyst coverage"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-09-01T18:59Z 3219 followers, XXX engagements
"Seems very suspicious and something I should spend tomorrow researching on how to profit from it"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-09-06T21:18Z 3219 followers, 6797 engagements
"$CODA - Not "IF" but "When""
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-09-08T17:26Z 3219 followers, 1941 engagements
"Eventually $CODA 🤝Anduril"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-09-14T15:15Z 3219 followers, 2533 engagements
"@sawdirt They have already moved ALOT and any hint of a cease-fire and they will get cut in half. Only name I am in right now are $EXA (which I recommend buying on this sell off on convertible bonds) and $KOG"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-09-23T19:56Z 3219 followers, XXX engagements
"$CODA breaking upper range on double normal volume. Has it time come 🤞"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-10-07T19:53Z 3219 followers, 3965 engagements
"$HO/Thales is making an identical system"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-10-10T19:05Z 3220 followers, 1615 engagements
"Played #battlefield6 last night with my friends and $ea did a great job on the game. We all liked the game. If Activision was still public I would short it ;-)"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-10-11T12:37Z 3219 followers, 1193 engagements
"I've never not made money buying $kdef below it's 50ma. Maybe this time will be different. However in Hanwha we trust :-)"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-10-14T14:09Z 3219 followers, XXX engagements
"@MsIaboni Hard to say. Not sure how deep there AI is integrated into $LPTH hardware. If is very deep then you get the idea of $LPTH taking them out directly. I needed some losses to harvest so I took it on $MTEK"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-10-14T18:12Z 3219 followers, 1586 engagements
"$KYIV Because the Algos & degens will love it"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-10-15T19:41Z 3219 followers, 1910 engagements
"Accurate summation of todays price action. $CODA green though"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-10-16T20:02Z 3219 followers, 1160 engagements
"Which is why they should send JASSM-ER's instead. A) Cheaper B) In production system C) Can be fitted to existing F-16's while tomahawks require a new launching platform. It doesn't have the same range as tomahawks but you still get a X ton warhead delivered XXX miles"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-10-16T23:02Z 3219 followers, 1970 engagements
"I was playing bf6 last night and they had one moment in the campaign where they shout out "get the switchblades in the air". Then you launch s300/600 and take out an incoming convey. Amazing how the explicitly embedded $avav tech into the game"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-10-19T14:25Z 3219 followers, 1079 engagements
"@taobanker At least you have to ask Claude to look at chat history's"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-10-19T21:06Z 3219 followers, XXX engagements
"Just a measly 1000% increase annually on revenue $dro.ax"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-10-19T22:58Z 3219 followers, 4222 engagements
"Bout back into $asm.ax after the offering. It cleaned up their balance sheet quite a bit and there was this little nugget in the presentation: "US DoD funding decision for US Metals Plant H2 2025" Given Australian pm meets trump tomorrow. Basset comments on ree with allies. Given equity raise timing. Feels like this is all coming together for them. High r/r with X% sizing. Still like $lyc.ax but am red on the idea so far"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-10-19T23:42Z 3219 followers, 1782 engagements
"Wow - A task force My top Counter-UAV picks: $EOS.AX - hard-kill with both 30mm cannon and laser $LPTH - Sensors (Highest conviction on sensors) $DRS - Sensors $TDY - Sensors $SPXC - EW against drones"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-08-28T19:26Z 3276 followers, 10.3K engagements
"Ok - I've been silent on it as I figured it was normal profit taking. However this selling on $eos.ax has gotten to absurd levels. Not really seeing any news. Something I am missing I trimmed in the 9's but still have a XX% postion"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-10-15T00:58Z 3276 followers, 3218 engagements
"BBB introduces work compliance rules that are difficult to track and $MMS will mostly likely tapped to manage it. Here are some interesting data-points: CBO estimates XX MILLION Americans will lose Medicaid coverage. That's XX million appeals case reviews and administrative processes. Current Medicaid admin costs: X% of $800B program = $48B New complexity could push this to XX% = $80B market +$32B in NEW administrative spending Also $MMS does alot of contract work with the VA which I expect will start having issues after October fiscal year roll's over"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-07-07T17:57Z 3265 followers, 5906 engagements
"Seems complicated. Probably something $mms can handle"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-08-05T00:38Z 3271 followers, XXX engagements
"BOOM on $MMS Straight from the earnings presentation:"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-08-07T13:37Z 3271 followers, 4963 engagements
"Kinda surprised no analysis has said anything on the Big Beautiful Bill impact on $MMS. This is what I came up with for finical impacts if the contracts flow their way: +$1B annual revenue by 2027 (vs. $5.3B base) XX% revenue growth above current baseline Government contracts = 11-13% EBITDA margins Additional $115M+ EBITDA annually Stock Impact: Current: 9.4x EV/EBITDA (below 11-12x historical) Target: $109-$158 (vs. $XX current) +40-100% upside over 18-24 months"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-08-12T19:49Z 3271 followers, 3149 engagements
"There is still time to get in on this The algo's/LLM cannot comprehend the true meaning of this task order. They will default to the primes which is the WRONG answer Investing is about waiting for that right pitch.this is it You have Alpha over the machines $EOS.ax $DRS $TDY $LASR $LPTH $AVAV"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-08-28T23:28Z 3272 followers, 16.6K engagements
"3) $LPATH They make both cameras for drones but also a unique camera that can detect drones and the air moment they cause. Also does not rely on exotic rare earths from China"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-08-29T17:54Z 3271 followers, 1937 engagements
"4) $MRCY & $DRS They make sensors and make specialized processing equipment that will end up in any solution"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-08-29T17:54Z 3272 followers, 1834 engagements
"So now that I covered C-UAVs I wanted to circle back to Drone manufactures. I dont have too many of these because I think the class X & X segment will be commoditized. I think the value add here will be in the larger class X & X segment. I(will cover pics/shoves next Again in ranking of conviction"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-08-29T18:25Z 3271 followers, 4662 engagements
"Forgot to add it here on the thread but I also own $EXA. They are based in E.U. and do alot with sub-service/under water drones"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-08-29T19:51Z 3271 followers, 1367 engagements
"Still digging but this seems like a new vertical that just got unlocked on $mobx. This puts them on every navy ship"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-09-02T13:08Z 3271 followers, 4154 engagements
"I am not normally a software guy but did pick up a small amount of $GLOB today. Stock has been in a brutal drawdown but I think there is ember of potential with them being OpenAI first Latin American partner"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-09-08T19:55Z 3271 followers, 1597 engagements
"@John_A_Ridge @vmsalama Once IRIS-T HYDEF comes online it become essentially an equivalent system to Patriot"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-09-20T16:00Z 3271 followers, 1806 engagements
"$HAG benefits the most from this IMO. The IRIS-T complex will be a direct competitor to the patriot complex once HYDEF interceptors come online. In fact the projected price point will be 1/3 less. However they are ways out on development. Unless there was a compelling reason to accelerate timelines 👇"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-09-20T16:06Z 3271 followers, 2457 engagements
"@Lehi88 @JeffGabel Only play I have is $CODA as most of the names are private"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-09-24T13:41Z 3271 followers, XXX engagements
"This is the reason to own $MMS. They did a blurb on it in there last slide deck but zero analysis comment on it. The work rules requirements in the BBB bill are huge. $MMS specializes in that type of stuff and I expect they will get significant regulatory capture from it"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-09-24T22:23Z 3271 followers, 1100 engagements
"With the Pentagon pushing to quadruple Patriot missile production here's my small-cap supplier portfolio: $MOBX - Electrical components (Spacecraft Components) $PKE - Ablative materials (sole-source C2B fabric) (LOVE LOVE LOVE this one for multiple reasons) $MRCY - Digital signal processing (LTAMDS radar) $MPTI - RF components. Trades thin so be warned $FEIM - Precision timing $CVU - Fin control surfaces (structural assemblies). Trades thin so be warned"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-09-30T19:23Z 3271 followers, 12.3K engagements
"Also $drs is the prime over this and handles the optic package. It is a core position for me"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-10-03T15:11Z 3271 followers, 1341 engagements
"$DRS - all the headlines on germanium import issues then this in the G/A"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-10-05T23:49Z 3270 followers, 1653 engagements
"Out of $MOBX. I have no idea what is management is doing at this point and I give up"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-10-06T14:00Z 3271 followers, 2075 engagements
"$NVX is the clear winner on this if this is true"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-10-09T11:33Z 3271 followers, 6103 engagements
"Too soon on $DRS 🤝 $LPTH talk"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-10-09T19:55Z 3271 followers, 3029 engagements
"Note from $PKE CC last night. Strongly suspect either A) ICBM modernization or B) Hypersonic missiles with $KTOS. "Once in a lifetime" = the birth of an entirely new weapons category"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-10-10T17:22Z 3271 followers, 1539 engagements
"@Omnitrader69 On volume too. It one of the few names I own at 5%. I talked to a really smart dude that was up to 30%. If this mineral issues persist look for $DRS to come along and cut a deal. sub billion on this company MC is absurdly cheep"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-10-10T20:27Z 3270 followers, XXX engagements
"@Citrini7 $DRS has several years. That was on the last earnings call"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-10-12T19:38Z 3271 followers, 1468 engagements
"Picked up some $lyc.ax tonight. Yes I'm very late to the idea. I acknowledge that. However with more capital injection from sovereign wealth funds they have the potential to double output with existing projects fairly quickly"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-10-13T00:11Z 3274 followers, 1376 engagements
"In addition to $lyc.ax I also grabbed some $asm.ax as well. They are not as richly valued and actually refine a highly specific product that only china produces for batteries. They are not quite full scale production yet in Korea but again: the more capital thrown at it the faster they can ramp vs peers"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-10-13T00:15Z 3274 followers, 6448 engagements
"We are entering into a period of a lot of noise when it comes to rare earths. The intelligent investor has to be able to separate miners vs refiners. Business like $mp currently mine rare earth here and ship them over China to be refined. That is the problem"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-10-13T00:39Z 3271 followers, 2735 engagements
"Businesses like $lyc.ax both mine and refine the product. This is where the puck is moving to. This is where we are going to see Capital investment from sovereign wealth funds. The world needs refined product"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-10-13T00:39Z 3274 followers, 1109 engagements
"Both $mrcy and $drs debuting ai edge sensors today. I'm very interested in that"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-10-13T11:50Z 3271 followers, 1486 engagements
"Out on $asm.ax. got a nearly XX% on three day hold. Shifted profits to $lyc.ax as that actually has fairly strong cash flow ahead of it. Especially if it can scale it's production in the pipeline already"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-10-15T00:56Z 3274 followers, 2382 engagements
"Secretary of Treasury: we must be sufficient with our allies on rare earths. He's outright telling you to buy $lyc.ax"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-10-15T12:47Z 3274 followers, 2292 engagements
"Picked up 140/135 put spread on $JBHT ahead of earnings tonight. Have a feeling all the work that ICE & Transpiration department are doing might hit margins"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-10-15T19:07Z 3261 followers, 1656 engagements
"$EOS.AX powering the sensor package in partnership with $DRS. This is absolutely well thought out piece of kit on a common platform. I could easily see Army/Marines interest in it as it works with an existing eco system of JLTV/Bushmaster chain gun/APKWS/Stingers"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-10-16T20:14Z 3271 followers, 2554 engagements
"It will take at least X to X years to figure out. I've been mostly focusing on players that have upside leverage to increasing capacity fairly quickly. I'm red on the name but I really like $lyc.ax. XXX% sizing and willing to go X. Expect a u.s./Australian agreement when their pm comes over"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-10-17T00:11Z 3274 followers, XXX engagements
"Big for $PKE and positive for $CVU to a smaller extent"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-10-17T19:53Z 3270 followers, 3118 engagements
"@aalharbikw @81Ninjau Listen to the $DRS earnings call to understand the full impact"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-10-18T14:30Z 3271 followers, XXX engagements
"And their you have it. I expect similar response from the other E.U. members. Trump's naked alignment with Putin's demands may finally galvanize European resolve IMO. Should see a floor in the E.U. defense names on the back of this. Also Ukraine has been doing alot of JV ventures with E.U. primes that can eventually phase out what they buy from the U.S. on most systems. On a longer term basis they will be direct competitors with U.S. primes"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-10-19T20:42Z 3271 followers, 5266 engagements
"$RHM.EUR = forward p/e XXXX $qq.LSE = XX $BAESY = 22"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-10-19T20:42Z 3264 followers, XXX engagements
"$ASM.AX catalysts: - Balance sheet is clean (debt paid off) - Phase X expansion fully funded ($204M revenue target) - Actual customer traction (29t delivered real orders) DoD decision has timeline (H2 2025 = weeks away) - Insiders buying $4.4M at $XXXX - PM-Trump meeting today (imminent catalyst)"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-10-20T12:44Z 3265 followers, XXX engagements
"Good for $EE as they focus on natural gas imports on offshore re-gasification"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-10-20T13:37Z 3265 followers, 1293 engagements
"If $ASM.AX gets $500M from this package: Funding risk eliminated Pentagon partnership confirmed US operations greenlit Fair value would be: A$2-5B range (5-14x current) Even at A$1.5B (4x current = A$6.60/share) ASM would still be: Cheaper than Lynas on EV/production basis Cheaper than MP on EV/resource value Trading at discount to "strategic asset" peers"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-10-20T17:54Z 3271 followers, 2550 engagements
"USEXIM is funding seven projects with $2.2B ($314M average each) Likely candidates for those seven: Lynas expansion (certain) ASM Dubbo Project (highly likely) ASM US Metals Plant (possible) Arafura Nolans (likely) Iluka Eneabba (likely) Hastings Yangibana (possible) Northern Minerals Browns Range (possible) ASM could be 1-2 of those seven projects = $300-700M"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-10-20T17:59Z 3271 followers, XXX engagements
"@truthdotphd Agreed on $asm. It appeared $lcy was a sell the news fade"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-10-21T10:50Z 3269 followers, XX engagements
"To solve the problem you first have to acknowledge the problem. Interested to see how long it sits in committees"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-10-21T18:13Z 3272 followers, 2078 engagements
"@Vmaxpax lol well my hunch has been destroyed Russian refiners = world refined draws. This is the first data point that refined product be drawn down"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-10-22T19:00Z 3271 followers, XXX engagements
"My week summed up in on pic. Last two days wiped out X weeks of being right on themes. All part of the game. I did pick up some $VELO on holding the 20MA and $OUST for the same reason. Probably early with policy dysfunction out of DC. It's going to take a negative catalyst to resolve that problem and get government open again. However I expect Anthony Albanese coming to DC on Monday to be a potential catalyst for Australian REE sector Finally next week is big for $CODI with make/break deadline on XX on loan convents. Have a great weekend everyone"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-10-17T19:50Z 3274 followers, 2625 engagements
"$lmt & $lpth program"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-10-18T12:33Z 3274 followers, 3127 engagements
"And there you have it. Status quo it is. In Trump XXX he would have fired Steve Witkoff by now. All he does is regurgitate Kremlin's talking points"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-10-20T14:18Z 3274 followers, 1796 engagements
"Let's see if Octopus broadens a tentacle to $QQ.LSE"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-10-21T22:19Z 3274 followers, 1345 engagements
"The thesis for me over the last couple of weeks has been: drone sanctions against Russia's refinery complex are causing them to shift from being a net exporter of refined products to a net importer. Since gasoline is a worldwide commodity it ends up being pulled from somewhere else. This was the first data point I got that supports that thesis. Will be looking at $VLO for additional commentary tomorrow for supporting evidence"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-10-22T19:10Z 3274 followers, 1757 engagements
"$CACI at a 52w and $BAH near a 52w low. Hmmm"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-10-23T14:41Z 3275 followers, XXX engagements
"@_hustlerdoc I hope so. People smarter then me have indicated if you zeroed out the business with issues the rest of the company is worth more then it is. Plus you have the rare ear tailwind. Could easily get back to the low/mid teens from the alts rerating it"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-10-22T22:38Z 3274 followers, XXX engagements
"Picked up some $BAH today and added to $SAIC. Seeing more and more data points that indicate the government is starting to acknowledge they went to far with DOGE cuts. They have been rescinding resignation and asking people to decide if they want to run in October or not. I expect most won't and it will time to turn to the contractors to backfill"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-09-24T13:47Z 3274 followers, 1391 engagements
"picked up some $SAAB.B here. Plan to add more at XXX if it gets that low. $KOG.OSE & $AM looking interesting as well but not quite there on the charts yet"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-10-15T14:08Z 3274 followers, XXX engagements
"The importance of this is two fold 1) Lower input cost for refiners as they can get cheeper input costs 2) higher prices on selling refined product. $VLO and $PSX are my pics on this. However $EUPE.ATH is another pick that can move on this. It has a bit more beta then $VLO/$PSX"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-10-22T19:20Z 3274 followers, XXX engagements
"My take on $VLO and my thesis of drone-sanctions ripple impact: Margins expanding (Q3: +44.5% YoY) Throughput at record levels (97% utilization all-time highs) Timing matches Russian crisis (Aug-Sept) Strong beat vs estimates ($3.66 vs $2.95)"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-10-23T12:37Z 3275 followers, 1476 engagements
"@fundmyfund Love the company but the program deliverable is 1MW in FY XX. Hopefully expectations haven't gotten ungrounded"
X Link @BlackScholesMan 2025-10-23T16:31Z 3275 followers, XX engagements
/creator/twitter::954558328616693760/posts