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[@robin_j_brooks](/creator/twitter/robin_j_brooks)
"China is diverting lots of goods that would have gone to the US - prior to tariffs - to the rest of the world. That's a massive rise in supply of Chinese stuff which the world is only willing to buy at lower prices. That adversely hits Chinese exporters"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1978075084569940159) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-14T12:27Z 352.1K followers, 123.3K engagements


"The BoJ aims to reduce gross monthly JGB buying to JPY X trillion by 2027. Not credible. Average monthly buying was JPY XXX trillion in the year through Q2 2025 and net roll-off of JGBs from the BoJ balance sheet was already -XXX% of GDP. Japan is stuck in a really bad place"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1979937563482763471) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-19T15:47Z 352.1K followers, 18.7K engagements


"@FBS1905 True. Sorry for the terrible omission. All of the Ruhrpott is incredibly romantic"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1979943505846833478) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-19T16:11Z 352.1K followers, 1019 engagements


"When Milei became Argentina's President in Dec '23 I banged the drum to float the Peso. That didn't happen and here we are again. The Peso is down XX% in recent weeks (lhs) FX reserves are tumbling and the discount on the parallel $/ARS rate is widening (rhs). Another crisis"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1969702641250050535) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-09-21T09:57Z 352.1K followers, 99.8K engagements


"Great @johnauthers piece in @Bloomberg on why China chose to escalate using rare earths. The consensus is that its exploiting its monopoly position but the deeper story is that its exporters are hurting badly so China has to go for broke"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1978414051219632556) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-15T10:54Z 352.1K followers, 52.9K engagements


"What's driving the crazy rise in gold prices At its root it's about fear that the Fed has capitulated to Trump and is easing into an economy where inflation is rising. This week's IMF/WB meetings may end the gold rally and replace it with a Dollar rally"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1978787264458035536) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-16T11:37Z 352.1K followers, 42.7K engagements


"The debasement trade is about unsustainable fiscal policy and debt levels in much of the G10. The Yen is the best example. It should have risen after Jackson Hole but it's fallen because it's losing its safe haven status. Other safe haven FX has rallied led by Swiss Franc"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1979897146322141632) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-19T13:07Z 352.1K followers, 12.6K engagements


"@DenarioSwiss That's sort of what I am saying in my piece. There's also inevitably going to be bubbles as markets hunt for safe havens. Underlying all this is a fear factor: the fear of losing your life's savings so people will do all kinds of irrational things in the short term"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1979928705230061927) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-19T15:12Z 352.1K followers, 1079 engagements


"@DeltaVega_ @MauroCognetta The Peso is substantially overvalued. That's the reason why there is capital flight because people think the Peso will fall so everyone has an incentive to buy Dollars. That's what needs to be fixed and only devaluation can do that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1980334512287703352) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-20T18:05Z 352.1K followers, 3036 engagements


"@TrueCrypto28 Two points: (i) since Bitcoin is down -XX% from its 2021 peak we can certainly say that Bitcoin WAS a bubble; (ii) whatever inflation is in US Dollars in the items you listed inflation is a a lot more in Bitcoin since BTC has devalued so much against USD. Thanks for playing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1637987418845396997) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2023-03-21T01:20Z 352K followers, 41.4K engagements


"Brazil is on track to become the Switzerland of Latin America. A huge trade surplus is emerging unlike any other country in the region. This is going to give Brazil external stability and a strong currency unlike the rest of Latin America. Brazil will be the region's anchor"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1661793738715176960) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2023-05-25T17:57Z 352K followers, 3.2M engagements


"The rise in Mexico's Peso is massive. Peso has reversed its 2015/6 fall that stemmed from falling oil prices due to US shale. So I get the Peso fall in 2015/6 and the negative shock that drove it. What is the positive shock that's now driving Peso strength I don't get that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1697984241777176617) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2023-09-02T14:46Z 352K followers, 475.3K engagements


"German manufacturing had been in crisis well before Russia invaded Ukraine. Putin's invasion only made this structural decline worse. Europe has an easy offset to this: a weaker currency. Euro needs to fall well below parity to offset the crisis in European manufacturing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1746496290542805124) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2024-01-14T11:35Z 352K followers, 118.9K engagements


"June was a bad month for LatAm. Mexican Peso did worst at -XXX% followed by Colombian Peso (-6.9%) and Brazilian Real (-6.0%). In Brazil lots of blame is directed at Lula but that's just political hackery. Much (not all) of recent Real weakness is about LatAm getting clobbered"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1807801827443835095) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2024-07-01T15:41Z 352K followers, 71.3K engagements


"Mexico should not waste time on counterproductive retaliation to US tariffs. Mexico is much smaller than the US so retaliation: (a) isn't credible; and (b) risks making a bad situation worse. Better to let the Mexican Peso fall. It is still substantially overvalued after all"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1886059098250133856) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-02-02T14:28Z 352K followers, 372.1K engagements


"Can the ECB just let French yields rise No because an Italy blow-up is always lurking for the Euro zone. Sharply higher French yields would cause immediate contagion to Italy. The ECB has proven - again and again - that it protects Italy. All roads lead to Rome as they say"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1960057399135621406) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-08-25T19:11Z 352K followers, 52K engagements


"China runs massive current account surpluses. It pegs its currency to USD so it has to buy lots of Dollars to stop its currency from rising. China used to put those Dollars into Treasuries but that isn't a good idea any more. So China builds huge inventories in basic metals"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1972405855045005682) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-09-28T20:59Z 352K followers, 111.9K engagements


"Gold is up XX% (black) since Powell's dovish speech at Jackson Hole even as the Dollar is flat (blue). This is very unusual and says the rise in gold isn't about Dollar debasement but debasement in fiat currencies broadly. Sign of a global debt crisis"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1972689128543158583) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-09-29T15:45Z 352K followers, 149.6K engagements


"The Fed's latest dovish pivot - telegraphed on August XX by Chair Powell at Jackson Hole - unleashed something and I don't think anyone really understands what that is. Gold is up a stunning XX% since that day a rally that's so big that it stands out on this XX year chart"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1972802758198665327) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-09-29T23:16Z 352K followers, 46.5K engagements


"The recent rise in gold prices began after Powell's dovish Jackson Hole speech Aug. XX. The Dollar has been stable since then so this isn't about a flight to safety out of USD but a flight out of all G10 currencies as fears about fiat debasement mount"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1973340074650882212) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-01T10:51Z 352K followers, 60.8K engagements


"The US lost its "convenience yield" in a long-running trend over the past decade (lhs black line). But it was clawing some of that loss back ahead of April X (rhs black line) something that abruptly ended with "Liberation Day." Policy chaos has costs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1973708836176535715) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-02T11:17Z 352K followers, 28.6K engagements


"Rising gold prices are worrying. What we know: (i) this started after Powell's dovish Jackson Hole speech so it's clearly about markets trying to hide from politicized central banks; (ii) the Dollar is stable so this isn't a flight out of USD but out of all fiat currencies"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1973719651143319633) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-02T12:00Z 352K followers, 42.8K engagements


"This year's rise in gold prices has come in two steps: (i) after the "Liberation Day" chaos in early April; (ii) after Chair Powell's dovish Jackson Hole speech on August XX. The rise in gold prices is about a flight to safety from erratic policies and politicization of the Fed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1974492152311771288) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-04T15:09Z 352K followers, 17.7K engagements


"The Fed's dovish pivot at Jackson Hole on August XX bought France time. It pulled down US longer-term yields which also helped pull down French yields. But the effect from that was always going to be fleeting especially given the unsustainable political equilibrium in France"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1975176685474676807) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-06T12:29Z 352K followers, 9654 engagements


"Gold prices are now up a stunning XX% since the Fed's dovish pivot at Jackson Hole on August XX. The Dollar is stable. This should be giving governments around the world serious pause. Markets fear global debasement in the face of post-COVID debt overhangs. This is all fiscal"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1975177629180338443) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-06T12:33Z 352K followers, 38.8K engagements


"Today was a really bad day in global bond markets with longer-term yields spiking everywhere. At the root of all this is Japan where markets worry about the likely next prime minister who's a fiscal dove. Huge spike in Japan's 30-year JGB. Japan is a safe haven no more"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1975302124868423695) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-06T20:48Z 352K followers, 110.7K engagements


""Liberation Day" chaos damaged US reserve currency status. Reserve manager allocations to USD fell from XX% in Q1 to XX% in Q2 (black). Reserve managers are risk averse so hardly ever make big changes. This is a -XXX standard deviation drop. An exodus"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1975874005727936659) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-08T10:40Z 352K followers, 50K engagements


"US tariffs on China are back up to 150%. Markets are trading this like in early April. The Dollar fell driven down by rate differentials. Markets - again - think tariffs will backfire on Trump. A flight to safety pushed up gold prices. S&P XXX tumbled"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1976995606364336444) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-11T12:57Z 352K followers, 68.8K engagements


"Yesterday was the first day in a long time that gold prices rose (black) and the Dollar fell (blue). Ever since Jackson Hole the rise in gold has been about a flight to safety out of ALL fiat currencies but that changed yesterday. Tariffs caused a flight into gold out of USD"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1977004375026680102) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-11T13:32Z 352K followers, 24K engagements


"Excellent piece by @nikogallogly in @nytimes on the massive rally in gold prices this year. The rally is a vote of no confidence in all fiat currencies as large spending needs and huge debt burdens everywhere clash with what markets are willing to fund"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1977344118381547615) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-12T12:02Z 352K followers, 21.8K engagements


"A lot is being made of the fact that China's exports are stable even though exports to the US are down sharply. But the only way it can export all this stuff to countries other than the US is to discount heavily. Huge negative shock to China's exporters"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1977710271209574677) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-13T12:17Z 352K followers, 57.9K engagements


"@GlennLuk You think the fact that the US trade deficit with Vietnam has almost doubled within a few months in 2025 - coinciding with high tariffs on China - is normal Come on"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1977738643222540754) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-13T14:10Z 352K followers, 2168 engagements


"The EU and UK sanctioned a huge number of shadow fleet ships in 2025. Problem is that those ships largely ignore those sanctions and operate unimpeded. The shadow fleet (gray) is currently about half of Russian seaborne oil exports through the Baltic. @econ_harris @BrookingsInst"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1977763772593783137) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-13T15:50Z 352K followers, 41.9K engagements


"This post got a lot of hate from what are clearly China-linked accounts on here. My main thought having seen a few of those tweets: "China is a super sophisticated and smart economy. Can it really not come up with better trolls than the contentless insults dished up here""  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1978131237647561016) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-14T16:10Z 352K followers, 54.3K engagements


"@KhushinderMohan Sure you can do many things but China is also very conservative and hoards its official FX reserves. Just think of all the property investments that have gone bad. FX reserves weren't used to make those investors whole"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1978787546369827232) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-16T11:38Z 352K followers, 4662 engagements


"Yesterday's news that Trump and Putin will meet in Budapest in coming weeks means the US won't be joining the EU and UK in sanctioning the shadow fleet any time soon. But the UK and EU can still do things to boost efficacy of their shadow fleet sanctions"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1979121962329739310) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-17T09:47Z 352K followers, 12.4K engagements


"@adam_tooze Brooklyn is nice but it just isn't the global hotspot for romance that Frankfurt undeniably is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1979230704845361471) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-17T16:59Z 352K followers, 1656 engagements


"@RiccardoDalCero If I may venture a guess this photo is taken from the world's most romantic central bank: the ECB"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1979363652399759557) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-18T01:47Z 352K followers, 1673 engagements


"@Sonorandesertra I try to discuss the different drivers. I do think it's important to acknowledge that this latest rally in gold started on August XX the day of Powell's Jackson Hole speech. That to me says that much of the demand is cyclical and predicated on a weak US economy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1979600339411071010) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-18T17:27Z 352K followers, 2269 engagements


"@CarlosRamirezF What's happening with Mexican Peso is scary. The Peso has risen so much in real effective terms that it's causing a big deterioration in Mexico's underlying current account balance. Add to that what might happen if Trump wins in November and I think the Peso is very vulnerable"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1769429457578635550) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2024-03-17T18:23Z 352.1K followers, 1.5M engagements


"Mexico's Peso has fallen after this weekend's elections but the sell-off is small versus how much the Peso has risen since COVID. Peso strength is a bubble fed by a narrative of friend-shoring and high interest rates. It's in Mexico's best interest for that bubble to unwind"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1797985377866903788) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2024-06-04T13:34Z 352K followers, 145.4K engagements


"If the US puts more tariffs on China the Yuan will fall sharply against the Dollar. That will put depreciation pressure on all EM currencies and spells trouble for Dollar pegs like Turkish Lira Egyptian Pound and Argentinian Peso. @BrookingsInst"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1854242609767625166) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2024-11-06T19:21Z 352.1K followers, 41.5K engagements


"There's all kinds of reasons people give why the Dollar has fallen this year. At the root of all that stuff is a simple macro story: tariffs were supposed to lift inflation and that just didn't happen as fast as people expected. Well it's happening now. Inflation is coming"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1951012522510917992) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-07-31T20:10Z 352K followers, 13.6K engagements


"Three weeks ago I tweeted out the EU "Wall of Shame" showing huge transshipment of goods from across the EU to Russia via Kyrgyzstan. Germany's @FOCUS_Magazin allowed me to write about the "Wall of Shame" in this week's issue. Big thanks to @marcbrost"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1966490823198990528) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-09-12T13:15Z 352.1K followers, 60.7K engagements


"Great piece on Argentina by @grobb2000 at @MarketWatch. Argentina stands alone in Latin America in - again and again - pegging its currency to the Dollar. The rest of the region floats their currencies which is what Argentina needs to do"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1970462414219907442) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-09-23T12:17Z 352K followers, 33.9K engagements


"TARGET2 balances are unconditional and indefinite balance of payments support. In EM the equivalent is IMF programs which mandate reforms. Not so in the Euro zone where TARGET2 perpetuates bad economic and political equilibria in high-debt countries"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1971542774043533731) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-09-26T11:50Z 352K followers, 76.2K engagements


"There's no doubt that global reserve managers are exiting the Dollar. That's a medium-term trend that pre-dates Trump and benefits AUD CAD CNY and other smaller currencies. The Euro has failed to benefit even during the massive Q2 2025 tariff turmoil"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1976241585873461654) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-09T11:01Z 352K followers, 74.6K engagements


"There's two catalysts for the massive rally in gold prices this year: (i) the chaotic roll-out of reciprocal tariffs in early April; (ii) Chair Powell's dovish Jackson Hole speech on Aug. XX. Markets are seeking a safe haven from policy chaos and fiat currency debasement"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1977350940039451130) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-12T12:29Z 352.1K followers, 15.6K engagements


"If the China-US trade war escalates and China devalues there'll be lots of collateral damage: (i) US Treasury market will go "yippy" like in April; (ii) high-debt countries like Japan and France will suffer; (iii) $-pegs in Argentina and Turkey will blow"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1977431969010008365) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-12T17:51Z 352K followers, 51.8K engagements


"@BalkanMilNews The same kind of "genius" narrative exists for Russia and Putin. It's the same nonsense that it is for China. US tariffs are exacting a huge toll on China which is why Beijing is playing hard ball with rare earths. And Putin is bleeding Russia in Ukraine"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1977767557102026827) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-13T16:05Z 352.1K followers, 15.5K engagements


"Every once in a while the IMF/WB annual meetings move markets. Last time this happened was X years ago when the meetings ended the rise in 10-year Treasury yield. This week's meetings may be similar and end the seemingly inexorable rise in gold prices"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1978776523273302480) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-16T10:54Z 352.1K followers, 21.3K engagements


"@stlg_ai There's many things going on. I think the latest bank worries are tiny compared to SVB so those are in my view a red herring. I just posted discount window borrowing on that. The latest gold rally started after Jackson Hole on Aug. XX. Fed policy is a key driver"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1979577424112443561) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-18T15:56Z 352K followers, 1340 engagements


"@Aspid73 On top of being incredibly romantic Oberursel is also Europe's culinary capital thanks to Fritten-Toni"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1980013710367232238) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-19T20:50Z 352.1K followers, XXX engagements


"Great piece by @greg_ip in @WSJ on the massive rally in gold prices. The rise in gold prices coincides with a stable Dollar and a sharp spike in long-term yields. Markets think high debt levels will be inflated away. Gold is a safe haven"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1975884949384200542) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-08T11:24Z 352.1K followers, 27.8K engagements


"Looks like Japan intervened to bring 30-year JGB yield back down after it spiked earlier this week on news its next prime minister is a fiscal dove. Yield caps like this aren't the answer for Japan. They just lead to uncontrolled Yen devaluation. We watched this movie in 2024"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1975888785285292032) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-08T11:39Z 352.1K followers, 236.9K engagements


"The massive rally in gold prices (lhs) since Powell's dovish speech at Jackson Hole on August XX isn't about Dollar debasement. After all the Dollar is currently at a multi-month high (rhs). Instead the rally is about debasement fears across all advanced economy currencies"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1976264422143246366) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-09T12:32Z 352.1K followers, 22.3K engagements


"In the short period since Powell's Jackson Hole speech on August XX the rally in gold prices has gotten huge attention making it more and more of a speculative bubble. You can see that speculative bubble form in how gold has recently dragged bitcoin higher. Bubble territory"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1976266510076109048) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-09T12:40Z 352.1K followers, 27.3K engagements


"Erdogan won the Presidential election in 2023 on May XX. On May XX a huge devaluation began. Milei must not instrumentalize FX this way in Argentina. It's obvious the Peso will devalue massively right after the Oct. XX election. Politicizing the exchange rate is unforgivable"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1976289256201998552) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-09T14:10Z 352.1K followers, 55K engagements


"The US tariff on China is back to 150%. When this last happened in April China devalued the RMB which put devaluation pressure on EM FX. EM central banks sold Treasuries destabilizing the Treasury market. That caused the US to capitulate. Trump brought China tariffs back down"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1976992164212359246) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-11T12:43Z 352.1K followers, 117.4K engagements


"When Trump lifted US tariffs on China to XXX% in early April China retaliated by starting to devalue the Yuan. That completely destabilized global markets and - most importantly - the US Treasury market. Trump ended up backing down. Key question now is if China does this again"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1977001194003284032) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-11T13:19Z 352.1K followers, 59.5K engagements


"China is playing hardball with rare earths not because it has the upper hand in the trade conflict with the US but because it has to. China's exports to the US have been clobbered and are a massive hit to China's export sector. China is in a position of weakness not strength"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1977036801299841305) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-11T15:41Z 352.1K followers, 245.2K engagements


"There's a narrative that China has the upper hand in its confrontation with the US. Nonsense. US tariffs are crushing China's export sector which must divert goods to all kinds of places suffering a huge hit to margins in the process. Hence China's hardball on rare earths"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1977066797141467188) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-11T17:40Z 352.1K followers, 124.8K engagements


"US tariffs are inflationary for the US and deflationary for everyone else. They cause China to divert all the goods it used to export to the US to the rest of the world which now gets a flood of deeply discounted stuff. China also imports less as it tries to sell stuff at home"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1977071354974495123) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-11T17:58Z 352.1K followers, 30.9K engagements


"Few cities rival the natural beauty and romance of Frankfurt. But Stockholm comes close"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1977073400427274539) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-11T18:06Z 352.1K followers, 14.6K engagements


"The dominant narrative is that China has the upper hand over the US but that's nonsense. China depends on its export sector to grow. US tariffs are a body blow to that sector as China's exports show. China plays hardball on rare earths because it has to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1977341686625001811) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-12T11:52Z 352.1K followers, 298.5K engagements


"Great article in @FortuneMagazine on the bias in markets to always see China as having the upper hand in the tariff stand-off with the US. Thats nonsense. China has one growth sector - exports - and that sector is getting hit massively by the US"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1977345985178165631) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-12T12:09Z 352.1K followers, 39.5K engagements


"There's now a string of German polls showing AfD overtaking CDU as Germany's lead party. AfD is riding popular discontent on immigration and will keep growing unless the political center finally confronts this issue. If the center is "too posh" to do that AfD will keep rising"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1977354213832130875) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-12T12:42Z 352.1K followers, 149.7K engagements


"@DoggyDog1208 Any comment on the chart I posted which shows massive disruption to China's exports as a result of US tariffs That's obviously hitting the profitability of China's exporters hard"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1977385674002104384) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-12T14:47Z 352.1K followers, 9023 engagements


"The US trade deficit with Vietnam (rhs) has within a few months in 2025 surpassed our deficit with Mexico (lhs). This is the closest to a "smoking gun" there is for signs of transshipment of Chinese goods to the US. The US didn't suddenly in 2025 decide it loves Vietnamese goods"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1977719663611015194) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-13T12:54Z 352.1K followers, 59.4K engagements


"Gold went up on Friday because of market anxiety over tariffs. That anxiety went away over the weekend but gold is up anyway today. There's something increasingly otherworldly about the rise in gold prices which are now up XX% since Powell's Jackson Hole speech on Aug. 22"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1977808090230890715) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-13T18:46Z 352.1K followers, 34.1K engagements


"Quick reminder that China is Putin's biggest enabler in his invasion of Ukraine. As US tariffs flood the world with cheap Chinese goods there is absolutely no gain in allowing these goods into your country. That applies above all to the EU. China is indirectly waging war on you"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1978087639518523820) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-14T13:16Z 352.1K followers, 128.9K engagements


"Practically every meeting at this week's IMF/WB annual meetings starts with the same question: "Do you know why gold prices are going up so much" In today's post I lay out what we know (and don't know) about what's driving the crazy rise in gold prices"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1978410555091099677) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-15T10:40Z 352.1K followers, 97.7K engagements


"Short-term US yields are tumbling as the trade war with China escalates. But the real story in the US and globally is about longer-term yields and those continue to have an upward trend. That's the global debt overhang that's pushing up long-term fiscal risk premia"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1978418823670665612) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-15T11:12Z 352.1K followers, 49.2K engagements


"Argentina should be transforming itself into a huge agricultural & energy exporter like Brazil has done. Instead its battling capital flight because of its pathological fixation on pegging to the Dollar. Great piece by @DubeRyan in @WSJ"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1978782324335472971) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-16T11:17Z 352.1K followers, 66.5K engagements


"China's export volumes are holding up in the face of US tariffs. That's happening because China is flooding the rest of the world with discounted goods. That creates the illusion that China has the upper hand in the trade war but it doesn't. China's exporters are hurting badly"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1978785503194366422) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-16T11:30Z 352.1K followers, 183.4K engagements


"NY Fed custody holdings of marketable Treasuries on behalf of central banks around the world had a sizeable dip in September. This kind of thing usually happens when EM is under depreciation pressure but September was a risk-on EM-positive month after a dovish Jackson Hole"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1978805233900798058) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-16T12:48Z 352.1K followers, 11K engagements


"Gold is now up XX% since Powell's dovish speech at Jackson Hole on Aug. XX. It's important that this rally is continuing during the IMF/WB annual meetings. These meetings can change market direction and - despite lots of skepticism towards the rise in gold - they haven't so far"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1979134506729722286) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-17T10:36Z 352.1K followers, 72.3K engagements


"Much of the chatter at this week's IMF/WB meetings was about the crazy rise in gold prices. Most people are coming away from these meetings with a perception that the US economy is better than they thought. That may end the gold rally at least for now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1979540067795267739) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-18T13:28Z 352.1K followers, 128.2K engagements


"This week had worries resurface about regional banks and their loan books. Inevitably lots of memories of the SVB shock in March 2023 are resurfacing. So here's discount window borrowing currently versus March 2023. What's going on now is nothing like the SVB shock. It's small"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1979571250767790412) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-18T15:32Z 352.1K followers, 12.7K engagements


"What's going on now with regional banks in the US is nowhere near the SVB shock in March 2023. SVB saw material deposit flight in 2023 (red) while there's quite literally nothing going on now (purple). There's obviously issues but they are NOT in any way systemic or material"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1979583483426025596) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-18T16:20Z 352.1K followers, 28.2K engagements


"If people are telling you to buy gold because of what's going on with US regional banks you should ignore them. What's going on now is literally nothing. The 2023 SVB blow-up saw a meaningful contraction in lending by small banks (lhs red). Nothing's going on now (purple)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1979587376382120300) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-18T16:36Z 352.1K followers, 616.1K engagements


"It's rational for China's exporters to cut prices in response to US tariffs. That's how you protect market share while you wait if the US and China make a deal. But these price cuts hurt profits and follow many years of past declines already. China's exporters are hurting badly"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1979601099486105788) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-18T17:30Z 352.1K followers, 20.5K engagements


"Practically all precious metals have been on a tear since Jackson Hole on August XX. This is a bubble and is vulnerable to reversal after the IMF/WB meetings this past week. But this doesn't mean the debasement trade isn't real. That trade will keep going"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1979895635483476048) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-19T13:01Z 352.1K followers, 65.2K engagements


"Longer-term government bond yields have been on a massive rise in recent years. That's proceeded in fits and starts but the trend is clear and will continue. Markets have had enough of endless budget deficits and high debt. Markets are demanding higher risk premia as a result"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1979898558124806465) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-19T13:12Z 352.1K followers, 15.1K engagements


"The BoJ was on average buying JPY XXX trillion monthly in gov't bonds in the year through Q2 2025. But a ton of JGBs on its balance sheet are maturing all the time so net BoJ purchases were -XXX% of GDP. Japan is ground zero for the global debasement trade. No good options"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1979935271756976450) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-19T15:38Z 352.1K followers, 13.3K engagements


"@AlexMedlock1 There was a lot of head-scratching on the possible causes of the sell-off across all precious metals on Friday. My personal view is that this was the single biggest discussion point at the meetings this week and so there's lots of room for a sell-off but I get your skepticism"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1979937960620421564) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-19T15:49Z 352.1K followers, XXX engagements


"Europe's top X most romantic cities X. Frankfurt X. Berlin X. Hamburg X. Munich X. Koblenz ps: photo is of just another incredibly romantic moment at Frankfurt's famous Wacker's Kaffee"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1979942160842584224) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-19T16:06Z 352.1K followers, 66.7K engagements


"The Yen has fallen so much since COVID because the BoJ keeps long-term JGB yields artificially low. The BoJ recognizes this and is now desperately trying to end yield caps but rising yields risk sparking a fiscal crisis. Japan just has no good options"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1980237187108253789) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-20T11:38Z 352.1K followers, 67.8K engagements


"Every once in a while IMF/WB meetings have the power to change a market narrative. Last time this happened was X years ago when the meetings ended a big rise in 10-year Treasury yield. We'll see this week if they end the crazy rise in precious metals"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1980267493194346781) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-20T13:38Z 352.1K followers, 9972 engagements


"A common misconception is that the Dollar has been stable during the crazy rise in precious metals prices. That's not true. The Dollar is only flat because the Yen is down due to Takaichi's bashing of the BoJ. The Dollar is falling against all kinds of safe haven currencies"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1980269718058553521) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-20T13:47Z 352.1K followers, 33.5K engagements


"Whatever the outcome in Sunday's Argentina elections incentives are for Milei to devalue the Peso right after. If he gets clobbered he obviously devalues. If he does better than expected this is the perfect opportunity to devalue an overvalued Peso and blame the opposition"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1980281031799222527) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-20T14:32Z 352.1K followers, 100.9K engagements


"@BlueNoseBruno No surprise many are calling Frankfurt the Venice of Europe"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1980332300224155742) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-20T17:56Z 352.1K followers, XX engagements


"@Mio_Mind Sorry but Madrid (Ohio) isn't in Europe"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1980332882171498923) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-20T17:58Z 352.1K followers, XXX engagements


"@schwabishbaueri OK but can you think of any negatives"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1980333228855816605) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-20T18:00Z 352.1K followers, XX engagements


"The pro-China bots on here see it as some kind of personal affront that China's export prices are falling in the face of US tariffs. That's a bit silly because falling export prices are a perfectly rational response to protect market share. Korea and Thailand are doing this too"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1980335071501644268) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-20T18:07Z 352.1K followers, 19.8K engagements


"The huge run-up in gold prices since Jackson Hole likely has nothing to do with EM central banks. Here's IMF data on what EM central banks were buying through May 2025. Purchases were slowing into this year so it's likely the gold run-up is all retail and speculators"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1980591594266063082) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-21T11:06Z 352.1K followers, 8130 engagements


"Leading indices like DXY make it look like the Dollar has been stable recently but that's misleading. The Dollar is only flat because the Yen (blue) is nose-diving as damage from Takaichi reverberates. The Dollar has been falling against safe haven currencies like CHF and SEK"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1980599865282277498) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-21T11:39Z 352.1K followers, 6375 engagements


"Japan is in a debt crisis. When the BoJ allows yields to rise the Yen stabilizes but rising yields make the debt burden unaffordable. When the BoJ caps yields the Yen weakens threatening another devaluation spiral like in 2022-2024. No good options"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1980602193456558135) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) 2025-10-21T11:48Z 352.1K followers, 7402 engagements