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[@robin_j_brooks](/creator/twitter/robin_j_brooks)
"@Bullbull1231 Everyone knows this. Especially the folks at UniCredit which is why theyre trying to get their hands on Commerzbank"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1945895906131296642) 2025-07-17 17:18:31 UTC 344K followers, XXX engagements


"For X years there's a relentless campaign to discredit sanctions. Here are the facts: (i) this year's wave of US UK & EU sanctions hit Russian oil exports hard (lhs); (ii) recent EU & UK sanctions are forcing Russia back onto Western tankers (rhs). @econ_harris @BrookingsInst"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1945844168397406341) 2025-07-17 13:52:56 UTC 344K followers, 21.2K engagements


"@Danjsalt One thing that's clear from this chart is that it's a lot easier to open the border and let lots of people in than it is to arrest and return them to their home countries. That's not a problem specific to the US. Germany and other European countries struggle with this too"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1946676234609361378) 2025-07-19 20:59:16 UTC 344.1K followers, XXX engagements


"@joequant This is precisely the kind of thing I am trying to clear up. Only thing that's clear is that supply of Chinese goods to the rest of the world (ROW) is up (blue) in an almost perfect offset to the fall in goods exports to the US (black). It's totally NOT clear if ROW demand is up"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1947330207494361119) 2025-07-21 16:17:55 UTC 344.1K followers, XXX engagements


"The images of ICE arrests are stomach-churning. But it's also important to see them in the context of the huge migration inflow of recent years (blue). Compared to that ICE arrests (black) and deportations (orange) are tiny. Much easier to open the border than to reverse that"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1946911688965382231) 2025-07-20 12:34:53 UTC 344.1K followers, 32.3K engagements


"@ConStelz The rise of the AfD in Germany is the single biggest destabilizer in Europe. If the AfD becomes the largest party will Germany defend the Baltics or Poland if Russia attacks Probably no. Confronting immigration - as unpleasant as it is - is the only way to defang the AfD"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1947653782579675308) 2025-07-22 13:43:42 UTC 344.1K followers, XXX engagements


"@GerigJack Border crossings changed very substantially and I consider these data accurate. Part of the rise is a post-COVID catch-up but most is due to the Biden administration making this kind of immigration easier on the Southwest land border"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1946667894810542306) 2025-07-19 20:26:08 UTC 344.1K followers, XXX engagements


"@TheBizCyclist I think this article was published some time ago. The numbers I show are more updated but also admittedly from a different data source"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1947014832890187882) 2025-07-20 19:24:44 UTC 344.1K followers, XXX engagements


"When times are good and global risk appetite is healthy foreign investors pile into the US (blue) and US residents send money abroad (red). That's exactly what happened in May after "Liberation Day" turbulence in April. Markets have a short memory. They forgive and forget"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1947691368421236796) 2025-07-22 16:13:03 UTC 344.1K followers, 1489 engagements


"This is the real 30-year Treasury yield. Two things stand out: (i) there is NO risk premium despite all the policy volatility since January and despite a continuation of very expansionary fiscal policy; (ii) real long-term yields aren't even very high currently versus history"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1943283900748566859) 2025-07-10 12:19:21 UTC 344.1K followers, 21.4K engagements


"@nickstirkster Pizza was invented in New Haven CT so you can count Italian as American if you like"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1947022754177233303) 2025-07-20 19:56:13 UTC 344.1K followers, XXX engagements


"China today released June trade data. Its exports to Nauru - the third smallest country in the world after the Vatican and Monaco - are up 6000% from a year ago. A symptom of how powerfully US tariffs are hitting China pushing a flood of Chinese exports to everywhere else"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1946304380384235683) 2025-07-18 20:21:39 UTC 344.1K followers, 788.2K engagements


"Markets have ignored the coming inflation impulse from tariffs. Inflation break-evens this year follow their usual path dictated by residual seasonality in the CPI rising in Q1 and then falling back (blue). Lots of room for markets to reprice which means upside for the Dollar"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1947297982686081189) 2025-07-21 14:09:52 UTC 344.1K followers, 12.3K engagements


"@deancollins @MaGu_daheim yes this definitely isn't transshipment. It's probably a gift now that there's warehouses full of stuff due to US tariffs"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1946310198777221562) 2025-07-18 20:44:46 UTC 344K followers, XX engagements


"@TheBizCyclist That's a bit besides the point I am making. If China wants to sell goods in new markets that it didn't previously serve it has to discount prices i.e. move down the demand curve. That's a hit to Chinese profitability. Same for transshipments"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1947676644191191527) 2025-07-22 15:14:32 UTC 344.1K followers, XXX engagements


"The Dollar should have risen when tariffs were first imposed but - counter to all economic models - it fell. Now all kinds of tariffs are coming and there's an army of economist that's saying: "Hey why isn't the Dollar falling So weird" Economists are a rudderless bunch"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1945477093648691248) 2025-07-16 13:34:18 UTC 344.1K followers, 38K engagements


"@ernietedeschi Someone had to check to US side of things and I'm so glad it was you Enjoy your weekend"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1946384133673885913) 2025-07-19 01:38:34 UTC 344.1K followers, 20.2K engagements


"After foreign investors pulled money out of the US in April (after "Liberation Day" chaos) long-term portfolio inflows recorded their strongest showing EVER in May. There never was a threat to US reserve currency status and the Dollar is on a rising - NOT falling - trajectory"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1947686704766152781) 2025-07-22 15:54:31 UTC 344.1K followers, 3684 engagements


"@Danjsalt At this point uncontrolled migration is a European problem as Trump shut it down. That's also a comment on US vs European democracy. The Biden administration did something unpopular and lost. In contast the EU establishment hides behind a "Brandmauer" instead of fixing this"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1946598918734712904) 2025-07-19 15:52:02 UTC 344.1K followers, 1498 engagements


"The Dollar (black) has now been essentially unchanged for X months. Nothing changes market narratives like price action (or lack of price action). Gone is all the talk about reserve currency status and sentiment has shifted to neutral from very negative just a few months ago"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1947027347120492670) 2025-07-20 20:14:28 UTC 344.1K followers, 13.9K engagements


"@Brad_Setser You raise lots of good points as always and I'm grateful for all of them. The key point is to overlay data (which are lagging) with economic intuition. We know that direct exports to the US are down a lot and that overall exports have held up. How can that be Discounting"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1947023598050263337) 2025-07-20 19:59:34 UTC 344.1K followers, XXX engagements


"@EconstratPB It's true that immigration and the crack-down are important. But also good to keep things in perspective. ICE arrests in June were 30000. At the peak of the Biden immigration wave there were 300000 "encounters" on the Southern border in just one month (Dec. 2023)"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1947660108151894216) 2025-07-22 14:08:50 UTC 344.1K followers, XXX engagements


"@TheBizCyclist Interesting theory Why would a shortage of Chinese goods in the rest of the world not bid up prices for Chinese goods and redistribute Chinese exports to cover that excess demand in ROW You're implicitly assuming some barrier or market imperfection"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1947428972662284509) 2025-07-21 22:50:23 UTC 344.1K followers, XXX engagements


"@bezthesubverter Actually the EU has recently sanctioned a huge number of shadow fleet ships. Those sanctions are effective as they're forcing Russia to shift back to using Western oil tankers most of which are Greek-owned. That improves enforcement of the G7 cap. This is all very positive"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1946215832855449844) 2025-07-18 14:29:48 UTC 344.1K followers, XXX engagements


"German manufacturing had been in crisis well before Russia invaded Ukraine. Putin's invasion only made this structural decline worse. Europe has an easy offset to this: a weaker currency. Euro needs to fall well below parity to offset the crisis in European manufacturing"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1746496290542805124) 2024-01-14 11:35:38 UTC 344.1K followers, 118.8K engagements


"We all want fiscal responsibility. But that won't happen as long as central banks cap yields when they spike as the Fed did in 2020. You can cap yields but that inevitably incentivizes bad fiscal policy. Our fiscal mess is inextricably linked to the Fed"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1946909495013068965) 2025-07-20 12:26:10 UTC 344.1K followers, 94.9K engagements


"Encounters on the Southwest US border fell to their lowest level EVER in Jun. '25. No matter how you feel about immigration this shows that border enforcement is totally possible. A big part of that is using the threat of tariffs with Mexico so that it polices its own borders"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1945460421109891229) 2025-07-16 12:28:03 UTC 344K followers, 7839 engagements


"When Trump first came into office - especially after ICE round-ups of migrants began - there was a lot of moral indignation in Europe and speculation that tourism to the US would collapse. There's no sign of that at all. European tourist arrivals into the US are rock-solid"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1947003096875282916) 2025-07-20 18:38:06 UTC 344.1K followers, 18.2K engagements


"We've massively expanded our tracking of Russia's shadow fleet. Since Dec. 2021 Greek shipping oligarchs sold Putin XX% of his shadow fleet with other European owners another 14%. EU leaders looked the other way. How was this allowed to happen With @econ_harris @BrookingsInst"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1944837040392061176) 2025-07-14 19:10:58 UTC 344K followers, 90.5K engagements


"@CarlosRamirezF What's happening with Mexican Peso is scary. The Peso has risen so much in real effective terms that it's causing a big deterioration in Mexico's underlying current account balance. Add to that what might happen if Trump wins in November and I think the Peso is very vulnerable"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1769429457578635550) 2024-03-17 18:23:51 UTC 344.1K followers, 1.5M engagements


"So it turns out that Bitcoin is just another bubble asset that blows up when the Fed gets serious about hiking interest rates. Zero store of value function. Zero diversification benefit. Zero yield. Sayonara Bitcoin"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1635737026820538374) 2023-03-14 20:17:52 UTC 344.1K followers, 3.1M engagements


"@londoned Sorry my mistake. By British I actually mean Indian. I thought that was understood"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1947020407606845444) 2025-07-20 19:46:53 UTC 344.1K followers, XXX engagements


"The Dollar is having a moment. It's up almost X% so far this month and there's an important lesson in that. Markets don't care about tariff headlines unless they're about China. Everyone else is just along for the ride. I wrote about this over the weekend"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1945454309849669978) 2025-07-16 12:03:46 UTC 344K followers, 27.7K engagements


"The yield on Japanese 30-year gov't bonds is back to the highs it reached in May. Japan was always held up by the #MMT crowd as an example for how debt doesn't matter because governments can always cap yields. That view needs to be retired along with #MMT. Fiscal space is finite"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1944740752816271524) 2025-07-14 12:48:21 UTC 344.1K followers, 54.9K engagements


"What a time to be alive. Germany's 30-year yield at XXX% is now above Japan's at XXX% even though German gov't debt is XX% of GDP vs Japan's 240%. Underlying culprit is the ECB which - via past interventions - pushes down Italian and Spanish yields and pushes up German ones"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1944013496745648259) 2025-07-12 12:38:30 UTC 344.1K followers, 26.4K engagements


"@joequant Here's what Google AI says about your claim. It does not back up what you are saying. Further yesterday you claimed the spike in Nauru's imports from China was due to diplomatic relations. Your story changes every day. It sounds to me like you're just spreading misinformation"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1946595423956672901) 2025-07-19 15:38:09 UTC 344.1K followers, 78.7K engagements


"Lots of questions following the Vietnam trade deal - which penalizes China transshipments - how the US can identify such exports. Not hard in practice. You just have to look at recent data to see China's exports to Vietnam and Thailand are anomalous. The US can simply flag that"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1944714450281300243) 2025-07-14 11:03:50 UTC 344K followers, 29.4K engagements


"@SantiagoAuFund These are just China goods trade data from China Customs. Nothing fancy about the data source. I am looking at the higher frequency drop in exports using 3m/3m growth rate based on seasonally adjusted data which perhaps is why the growth rates look strange to you"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1947051625190744315) 2025-07-20 21:50:56 UTC 344.1K followers, 2848 engagements


"@VKMacro Here's the data on China's trade with the US and with key XX other trading partners. You can see the collapse in its trade surplus with the US and a sharp spike in its trade surplus with others. Demand doesn't spike like that. It's all about Chinese excess supply"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1947361607324930363) 2025-07-21 18:22:42 UTC 344.1K followers, XXX engagements


"@GOLDMEMBER76501 There is no other way. There was an opportunity to exit Greece a decade ago which would have ended profligate fiscal policy in the periphery in one move. That kind of exit has to happen if rules are meant to mean something. Same at the EU level. There is no other way sadly"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1945898085923614786) 2025-07-17 17:27:11 UTC 344.1K followers, XXX engagements


"@HannoLustig Exactly. Like it or not central bank interventions at times of crisis have a cost which is that they reduce the urgency of reigning in big budget deficits. You can cap yields when things are bad but then don't be surprised if deficits run out of control when times are good"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1946996564200771733) 2025-07-20 18:12:09 UTC 344.1K followers, 1082 engagements


"Mexico's Peso has fallen after this weekend's elections but the sell-off is small versus how much the Peso has risen since COVID. Peso strength is a bubble fed by a narrative of friend-shoring and high interest rates. It's in Mexico's best interest for that bubble to unwind"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1797985377866903788) 2024-06-04 13:34:53 UTC 344.1K followers, 145.3K engagements


"@gonglei89 Any comment on the substance of what I said or on the obvious lack of evidence that there were actually purchases of fishing boats to explain the rise in Chinese exports"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1946665026388951219) 2025-07-19 20:14:44 UTC 344.1K followers, 2557 engagements


"@borghi_claudio Not at all. The idea is to let markets set interest rates without central bank yield caps when bad shocks hit. If we'd done that a while back we wouldn't have the fiscal mess we have now. Same goes for Italy incidentally"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1947112292014760080) 2025-07-21 01:52:00 UTC 344.1K followers, 1501 engagements


"@GL874407 German debt is very low so - in a monetary union that isn't a fiscal union - debt and fiscal policy haven't been constraints the way they are elsewhere. But AfD is structurally against the Euro like most populist parties in the North so the end of this book isn't written yet"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1944766910748344359) 2025-07-14 14:32:18 UTC 344.1K followers, XXX engagements


"@123MathMan Of course you can always go back to capping yields but in a world of rising interest rates - which we are in given all the debt issuance that's going on - that implies steady Yen devaluation (as we saw in 2023). That's where things start to get complicated"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1944767357139775777) 2025-07-14 14:34:04 UTC 344K followers, XXX engagements


"Oil tankers are Putin's Achilles heel. This year's wave of US EU and UK sanctions on shadow fleet oil tankers hit Russia where it hurts. I'm endlessly proud of the work @econ_harris @LiamEcon and I do at @BrookingsInst to reverse the negative perception of sanctions. They work"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1946220954796921343) 2025-07-18 14:50:09 UTC 344.1K followers, 50.6K engagements


"@S1269mr I actually make my own charts believe it or not"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1947004587895865567) 2025-07-20 18:44:02 UTC 344.1K followers, XXX engagements


"@WernerGuenner @ConStelz There's ways to deal with lower immigration. Germany and the rest of Europe need to raise retirement age which is only fair since life expectancy is up so much. Large-scale immigration especially the uncontrolled variety of recent years is unpopular. That's the hard reality"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1947657291211411820) 2025-07-22 13:57:38 UTC 344.1K followers, XX engagements


"China's growth model is based on exports. US tariffs now threaten that growth model. China's response is to either transship goods to the US via 3rd countries or export to new markets. Either way that hits profits of China's exporters and is deflationary"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1947631216586313849) 2025-07-22 12:14:01 UTC 344.1K followers, 12K engagements


"@Syrian231 I'm not claiming these are transshipments. China is also redirecting a lot of its exports to new markets. There's also a possibility that this reflects the purchase of a new shipping fleet but I have no definitive evidence on that with different AIs giving different answers"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1946702231132045432) 2025-07-19 22:42:34 UTC 344.1K followers, XXX engagements


"Trump is leaning on the Fed to cut rates. Turkey's Erdogan did that in 2021 firing the hawkish CBRT Governor. What followed were rate cuts that sent Lira going into a devaluation spiral from which it has yet to recover. The Fed's independent for a reason"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1940367213393064415) 2025-07-02 11:09:28 UTC 344.1K followers, 157.7K engagements


"@real_stevele @joequant That goes to my point. Unless there is a positive demand shock for Chinese goods in Europe which would shift out the ROW demand curve to the right prices of Chinese goods have to fall i.e. this is a move DOWN the demand curve as the supply curve shifts right"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1947331214341247055) 2025-07-21 16:21:55 UTC 344.1K followers, XXX engagements


"Just in case you think Japanese long-term yields can't possibly go any higher: Japan's 30-year yield (white) - even with the recent rise - is below Germany's (orange). German debt is XX% of GDP. Japan's is 240%. Japan's yields are still crazy low and nowhere near a market price"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1944929254740803723) 2025-07-15 01:17:24 UTC 344.1K followers, 124.4K engagements


"Fiscal policy is on an unsustainable path in the US. That'll only change when the Fed stops capping yields in bad shocks. It did that with huge emergency QE during COVID (blue) which prevented a debt crisis. We can cap yields in bad shocks but the result is bad fiscal policy"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1946552328296759710) 2025-07-19 12:46:54 UTC 344.1K followers, 11.7K engagements


"In a recent @BrookingsInst essay @econ_harris @LiamEcon and I argued that the EU has the power to go it alone on sanctions. That's exactly what today's 18th sanctions package does. Our analysis shows shadow fleet sanctions to be highly effective. Kudos"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1946217142602408280) 2025-07-18 14:35:00 UTC 344.1K followers, 10.5K engagements


"@MarkSimonHK @Brad_Setser Right which is why I'm making the point that it will depress margins if it's happening (it surely is on some scale). The alternative is to try to export to new markets which also requires discounting to generate demand where previously there wasn't any"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1947025851435901078) 2025-07-20 20:08:31 UTC 344.1K followers, 2126 engagements


"@Hakimaane_ I don't feel any shame I'm afraid"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1947027825615057103) 2025-07-20 20:16:22 UTC 344.1K followers, XXX engagements


"@HuaisiCen Sure but do you have any evidence of any such construction projects or are you just speculating"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1946665128977477730) 2025-07-19 20:15:08 UTC 344.1K followers, 7101 engagements


"LatAm FX is a bloodbath since Mexico's election. It makes sense for Mexican Peso to weaken since it was substantially overvalued in the run-up to the election. But it makes no sense to me why there is contagion to the Colombian Peso or Brazilian Real. No overvaluation there"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1800897984508682347) 2024-06-12 14:28:33 UTC 344.1K followers, 177.6K engagements


"Markets price XXX bps in cuts from the Fed through the end of next year. That's way more easing than markets price for any other G10 central bank. Kind of bonkers when you consider that tariffs are inflationary for the US and deflationary for everyone else. Dollar bullish"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1947295974973464701) 2025-07-21 14:01:54 UTC 344.1K followers, 10K engagements


"If China's exports show a sharp rise to one country that could be for idiosyncratic reasons. But if China's exports rise to all kinds of places right after the imposition of big US tariffs that's a sign China is scrambling to find new export markets. That's what's happening"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1947654379093287084) 2025-07-22 13:46:04 UTC 344.1K followers, 17.1K engagements


"As a side note Switzerland's national soccer team is largely Albanian but that's probably unrelated"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1946557370131222555) 2025-07-19 13:06:56 UTC 344.1K followers, 9842 engagements


"The EU unilaterally lowers the price cap on Russian oil and sanctions XXX more ships. After such a long time of dithering this is positive. Lots of questions about enforcement and what was given to holdouts like Slovakia and Greece. But this is good"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1946179812797673609) 2025-07-18 12:06:40 UTC 344.1K followers, 12.5K engagements


"China's monthly exports to Qatar just doubled. Ever since the US raised tariffs on China to XX% there's an explosion of transshipments to the US via all kinds of places. This is a sign how badly US tariffs are hurting China's export machine. China's exporters are desperate"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1945885516492107914) 2025-07-17 16:37:14 UTC 344.1K followers, 42.4K engagements


"China's direct exports to the US (red) are down -XX% y/y in June 2025 but overall exports (black) are up 6%. How can that be China's exporters don't have the capacity to warehouse all the goods they produce. So exports have to leave for new markets or - indirectly - for the US"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1946604615077712041) 2025-07-19 16:14:41 UTC 344.1K followers, 59K engagements


"Only time Brazil's Real has gotten close to my $/BRL XXXX fair value is in Apr. '22 after Russia's invasion of Ukraine which spiked commodity prices lifting Brazil's terms of trade lots. The Real is again strengthening now but due to Dollar weakness. Much less powerful"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1941871617979625546) 2025-07-06 14:47:26 UTC 344.1K followers, 67.9K engagements


"Trump's secondary tariffs vs shadow fleet sanctions: (i) sanctions shut down shadow fleet ships tariffs do not; (ii) easy to scale up sanctions tariffs are much blunter; (iii) a lower G7 cap complements sanctions no such complementarity for tariffs. @econ_harris @BrookingsInst"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1945106483030471134) 2025-07-15 13:01:38 UTC 344.1K followers, 52K engagements


"Germany this week deported XX Afghans with criminal records. Last time this happened was under the previous government which did one deportation in Aug '24 ahead of elections in East Germany. Unpleasant but necessary if the rise of AfD is to be stopped"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1946914831048626473) 2025-07-20 12:47:22 UTC 344.1K followers, 17.7K engagements


"This chart puts recent ICE detentions (black) in historical perspective against the migration inflow on the Southwest land border (blue) in recent years. ICE detentions have certainly picked up but they're tiny relative to the huge migrant inflow that happened in recent years"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1946665978877575678) 2025-07-19 20:18:31 UTC 344.1K followers, 71.9K engagements


"The Dollar has been rising continuously in July. That doesn't get talked about much because at this point there's basically only Dollar bears out there. It's also notable that the Dollar is up slightly today even with all the tariff headlines. Should give Dollar bears pause"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1944757349920432468) 2025-07-14 13:54:18 UTC 344.1K followers, 36.2K engagements


"Tariffs in 2018 didn't cause inflation as they were: (i) only on China; (ii) far smaller; (iii) Dollar rose to offset higher import prices. All that's totally different in 2025 and there's now signs that a major inflation shock is building in core goods"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1945436069232570808) 2025-07-16 10:51:18 UTC 344.1K followers, 18.4K engagements


"Draghi's "whatever it takes" mangled X distinct things: (i) whether the Euro is irreversible; (ii) whether sovereign debt defaults should and need to happen in the Euro. By ruling out the latter he has endangered the former. Total lack of fiscal discipline will explode the Euro"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1944334034034700617) 2025-07-13 09:52:12 UTC 344.1K followers, 96.2K engagements


"Germany has played the role of weak hegemon for far too long in the Euro zone allowing high-debt countries to push the ECB into a quasi-fiscal role and playing defense on joint EU debt issuance. Its high time this changes. Great piece in @welt"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1945457229798207944) 2025-07-16 12:15:23 UTC 344K followers, 20.9K engagements


"@SamStromersten My conclusion from this chart is that it's very difficult to deport people. Just think about all the press that's being generated around ICE arrests v the huge migration inflow in previous years that generated almost none. That makes securing the border even more important"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1946679479079678054) 2025-07-19 21:12:10 UTC 344.1K followers, XXX engagements


"@justwannasayth2 That seems like an unnecessarily anti-Canadian comment"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1947004831605948809) 2025-07-20 18:45:00 UTC 344.1K followers, XXX engagements


"This is going to be a bad week for the Yen and long-term Japanese government bond yields. When you let debt rise out of control - with the help of your central bank - that just ends up putting you in a straightjacket with no good options. Japan is in a very difficult place"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1947028642648752395) 2025-07-20 20:19:37 UTC 344.1K followers, 36.6K engagements


"@financecyprus Foreign flows into US assets aren't weak. Foreigners are happy to buy equities (orange) and corporate debt (blue). But they have become less willing to buy US Treasuries (red) where inflows have averaged near zero in recent years. So the Dollar can be strong but yields can rise"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1458814636011175936) 2021-11-11 15:11:27 UTC 344K followers, XX engagements


"If the ECB were prohibited from buying sovereign debt Italian and Spanish yields would soar and German yields would go negative. We know this from Lagarde's faux pas in Mar. 2020. ECB activity in bond markets redistributes wealth from fiscally sound sovereigns to unsound ones"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1944342964534186378) 2025-07-13 10:27:41 UTC 344.1K followers, 51.3K engagements


"@DavidBeckworth @Macro_Musings Huge congratulations. You do an amazing public service with these. They're all excellent and your guests are top notch"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1947286488619577670) 2025-07-21 13:24:12 UTC 344.1K followers, XXX engagements


"The X best cuisines in the world X. German X. Japanese X. Korean X. Italian X. British"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1720831334753468643) 2023-11-04 15:52:16 UTC 344.1K followers, 20.4M engagements


"My proxy for underlying inflation - core services (blue) - is extremely subdued at the moment which is the main reason that inflation remains low in the face of tariffs. Part of this is a head fake. Residual seasonality pulls services inflation down in the middle of the year"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1945112838269247782) 2025-07-15 13:26:53 UTC 344K followers, 9185 engagements


"@ernietedeschi @jerry_kerr84098 I'm not sure China's exporters are desperate enough to route things through Micronesia. This might simply be China dumping goods that otherwise would just sit around in warehouses. There's also some port development going on but I am really really NOT a Nauru expert"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1946384465032253538) 2025-07-19 01:39:53 UTC 344.1K followers, XXX engagements


"Dollar longs according to the CoT report from the CFTC aren't actually all that big at the moment. Maybe a 6/10. What's interesting is that Euro longs against the Dollar remain quite modest. Maybe a 5/10. All that EU chest-beating we have to listen to isn't impressing anyone"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1946590038948524314) 2025-07-19 15:16:45 UTC 344.1K followers, 26K engagements


"@Brad_Setser Selling goods at home faces the same challenge as trying to open up new non-US markets abroad. You're basically trying to sell goods that were destined for another market (the US) in a new market. You have to discount prices to do that. So domestic sales are deflationary too"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1947021484716589212) 2025-07-20 19:51:10 UTC 344.1K followers, 2299 engagements


"Euro makes new all-time highs every day in trade weighted terms. Many countries - above all China - peg to the Dollar. That supercharges the rise in Euro vs USD (white) taking Euro to stratospheric levels in trade-weighted terms (orange). Deflation is coming for the Euro zone"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1942674587445350866) 2025-07-08 19:58:09 UTC 344.1K followers, 102.4K engagements


"Nauru is the 3rd smallest country in the world after the Vatican and Monaco. But more importantly right now it's also the Kyrgyzstan of Micronesia. China's exports to Nauru are up 1400% in May from a year before. A sign how desperate China's exporters are to offload their stuff"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1945949298614468990) 2025-07-17 20:50:41 UTC 344.1K followers, 34.7K engagements


"The share of the Dollar in the world's official FX reserves was XX% in Mar '25 unchanged from Dec '24 and Dec '23. There's way too much noise about loss of reserve currency status. It can't and won't happen because there's no alternative to the Dollar"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1943570656454463794) 2025-07-11 07:18:48 UTC 344.1K followers, 54.1K engagements


"Chinese goods are flooding small out-of-the way places like Albania (lhs) and Switzerland (rhs). That's the huge impact US tariffs are having on Chinese exporters who face overflowing warehouses with goods that should have gone to the US and are now getting dumped elsewhere"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1946557180280246370) 2025-07-19 13:06:11 UTC 344.1K followers, 69.3K engagements


"China needs to ease monetary policy to counter the deflationary impulse from tariffs. But it can't as the inevitable byproduct of easing is a weaker Yuan which China doesn't want. China is stuck as are rate differentials. The result: rising real rates and even worse deflation"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1939324671419162946) 2025-06-29 14:06:47 UTC 344.1K followers, 62.2K engagements


"The world's top X most romantic cuisines right now X. German X. Japanese X. Korean X. Italian X. British"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1947006939168117039) 2025-07-20 18:53:22 UTC 344.1K followers, 61.5K engagements


"@tolstoybb Luxembourg is incredibly romantic as is its cooking"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1947021638693802164) 2025-07-20 19:51:47 UTC 344.1K followers, XXX engagements


"Japan's 30-year JGB yield (white) is up sharply but it's still below Germany (orange). Many years of BoJ yield curve control and QE mean Japanese yields aren't a market price but are artificially low. After all Japan's debt is XXX% GDP vs Germany's 65%"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1945074581825261859) 2025-07-15 10:54:52 UTC 344.1K followers, 18.8K engagements


"Images of ICE arrests and deportation are hard to watch. Today's Substack puts the numbers for these things into context against the previous huge migration inflow. We urgently need reform of asylum law to better balance needs of citizens vs non-citizens"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1947262366892036298) 2025-07-21 11:48:21 UTC 344.1K followers, 9541 engagements


"The Dollar fell sharply in early April when the US rolled out reciprocal tariffs. So why is the Dollar rising now as the US announces new tariffs on everyone Difference is China which is the only trade war that matters. That confrontation is on hold so markets don't care"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1943573543968522584) 2025-07-11 07:30:17 UTC 344.1K followers, 29.5K engagements


"Macro XXX on China tariffs. If China doesn't transship goods to the US it must export them to the rest of the world (ROW)). Supply of goods to ROW goes up. Since ROW demand is unchanged prices must fall to generate demand. US tariffs are a deflationary shock for China and ROW"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1947323529491345574) 2025-07-21 15:51:23 UTC 344.1K followers, 104.1K engagements


"@dennisw5 The fawning over China and its portrayal as an impervious global force is grating. It parallels how Russia was portrayed after its Ukraine invasion with many talking about "Fortress Russia" and genius Putin. Lots of Western business lobbying (which hates tariffs) at work here"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1947688215613161612) 2025-07-22 16:00:31 UTC 344.1K followers, XX engagements


"The tariff inflation shock really got going in June. Core goods inflation (top left) was XX bps above where it normally is at this time of year (purple). The tariff hit is most pronounced for furniture (top right) & recreation (bottom left) but apparel is hit too (bottom right)"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1945212771588616517) 2025-07-15 20:03:59 UTC 344.1K followers, 46.6K engagements


"Since the imposition of large US tariffs China's exports to Hungary are up 40%. This kind of thing is a symptom of all the pressure building up on Chinese exporters who are struggling with overflowing warehouses. A massive deflationary shock for everyone outside the US"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1946311109985583476) 2025-07-18 20:48:23 UTC 344.1K followers, 66.4K engagements


"Markets have been remarkably orderly given what's going on but we're starting to see disjointed moves now. The fall in commodity prices and growing risk of China devaluation cratered Australian Dollar (lower middle). A growing EM sell-off weighs on Mexican Peso (lower right)"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1909258271896011163) 2025-04-07 14:53:38 UTC 344.1K followers, 21.1K engagements


"The Dollar is up X% in July. It's ignored mounting tariff noise and yesterday's headlines that the President discussed firing Powell with Republican lawmakers. There's a lesson here. USD is rising as tariffs start to push up inflation. That's what matters"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1945802199239430293) 2025-07-17 11:06:10 UTC 344.1K followers, 16.3K engagements


"With friends like these who needs enemies Hungary (lhs) and Bulgaria (rhs) have massively ramped up imports from China. The EU needs to find a way to kick out "Trojan Horse" countries. If you can't behave properly your actions should have consequences. As opposed to nothing"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1945888609598394575) 2025-07-17 16:49:32 UTC 344.1K followers, 44.3K engagements


"@FrensWuiMade @yieldsearcher I find it somewhat remarkable that - after massive transshipments from the EU to Russia via all kinds of places (which built to huge levels in an instant) - there's still anyone claiming China isn't transshipping on a material scale. I mean come on"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1947062487112704044) 2025-07-20 22:34:06 UTC 344.1K followers, 1205 engagements


"After Russia invaded Ukraine many Western analysts painted Russia as invincible (Fortress Russia). In the trade war now it's similar with China. Much like for Russia this stuff is nonsense and misinformation. China's export machine is really hurting"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1946182407733789104) 2025-07-18 12:16:58 UTC 344.1K followers, 91.6K engagements


"When people tell me the Dollar needs to fall because of Trump I wonder if they have any idea how FX markets trade. FX markets go long Turkish Lira a few weeks after Erdogan jails the opposition leader. FX markets don't penalize this kind of stuff. They just want to make money"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1943278295497228556) 2025-07-10 11:57:04 UTC 344.1K followers, 43.5K engagements


"My amazing and wonderful daughter - Annika - wrote her first Substack post together with @JonathanPingle on whether COVID increased inequality across US states. So massively proud:"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1947109129664774404) 2025-07-21 01:39:26 UTC 344.1K followers, 13.9K engagements


"@igkolev That's certainly what's been going on with Kyrgyzstan where German exports to Kyrgyzstan never actually show up there and presumably go straight to Moscow. So Kyrgyzstan is just what gets written on the invoice. I don't know about Nauru but that's certainly possible"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1946589109822038027) 2025-07-19 15:13:04 UTC 344.1K followers, 9803 engagements


"I'm doing a live stream discussion with @tashecon on Russia sanctions this Friday at X am (ET). No one knows Russia better than Tim. After all he came up with the term "Fortress Russia" which he's since replaced with "Rubble Russia." Substack link below"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1947328415519879300) 2025-07-21 16:10:48 UTC 344.1K followers, 9361 engagements


"@pe1rdw I hear this argument a lot but I'm not sure I believe it. Think back to the anti-government protests in late 2022 against COVID lockdowns. The government backed down even though there are no elections. Maybe this is different because it's a confrontation with the US but still"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1947289789767565515) 2025-07-21 13:37:19 UTC 344.1K followers, XXX engagements


"China is in a tough spot. It's exports to the US are down -XX% q/q in Jun '25. Exporters have only X options: (i) transship to the US; (ii) export goods to other countries at a discount to generate demand. Either way a big hit to profitability and a deflationary shock for China"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1947016956105605167) 2025-07-20 19:33:10 UTC 344.1K followers, 181.3K engagements


"@LetsArmUKR Absolutely. The first line of defense has to be strict border enforcement because it's very difficult to deport migrants even though with criminal records once they're inside the country. The Trump administration is very focused on deportations but their numbers are small"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1947264898343284970) 2025-07-21 11:58:24 UTC 344.1K followers, XX engagements


"June was a bad month for LatAm. Mexican Peso did worst at -XXX% followed by Colombian Peso (-6.9%) and Brazilian Real (-6.0%). In Brazil lots of blame is directed at Lula but that's just political hackery. Much (not all) of recent Real weakness is about LatAm getting clobbered"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1807801827443835095) 2024-07-01 15:41:57 UTC 344.1K followers, 71.3K engagements


"Single biggest source of oil tankers for Putin's shadow fleet is Greece (blue). That's an opportunity for the EU to grow not sweep this under the rug. An investigation is needed to uncover how this happened. That will strengthen the EU not weaken it. @econ_harris @BrookingsInst"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1945078251153436905) 2025-07-15 11:09:27 UTC 344.1K followers, 95.9K engagements


"@jurgen_nauditt For countries like Malta Greece and Cyprus to hold up measures that aim to make the XX member countries of the EU safer is laughable. The EU is broken and needs deep reform. The status quo gives de facto veto power over sanctions to shipping oligarchs in Greece Cyprus & Malta"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1945466410102140971) 2025-07-16 12:51:51 UTC 344K followers, 1814 engagements


"@kapshow Care to provide a bit of substance why you disagree"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1947019933818159566) 2025-07-20 19:45:00 UTC 344.1K followers, XXX engagements


"Ill be doing a live stream with @tashecon on Russia sanctions this Friday (Jul 25) at X am (ET). Tim coined the term Fortress Russia many years ago. Well see if he still thinks its still a fortress. Photo is from a summit in Uludag in Turkey in 2019"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1947633406201802837) 2025-07-22 12:22:43 UTC 344.1K followers, 7189 engagements


"@lucabattanta @DiTralle @GL874407 It clearly isn't taxed enough since Italian debt keeps going up in bad states of the world and never goes down in goods states of the world. Italian real estate wealth exists because Italy got low German interest rates when it joined the Euro. Time to pay back for that windfall"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1944831314089103666) 2025-07-14 18:48:13 UTC 344.1K followers, XXX engagements


"@justwannasayth2 yes it's pretty crazy. Never in the history of Nauru has there ever been anything like this. Bonkers"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1946310478742872300) 2025-07-18 20:45:53 UTC 344.1K followers, 19.4K engagements


"Banks in Frankfurt are somehow just way more romantic than banks pretty much anywhere else"  
![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1945890169879470252) 2025-07-17 16:55:44 UTC 344.1K followers, 12.5K engagements