[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.] #  @robin_j_brooks Robin Brooks Robin Brooks posts on X about tariffs, china, russia, robin the most. They currently have XXXXXXX followers and 4584 posts still getting attention that total XXXXXX engagements in the last XX hours. ### Engagements: XXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::888118103095115780/interactions)  - X Week XXXXXXX -XX% - X Month XXXXXXXXX +53% - X Months XXXXXXXXXX +38% - X Year XXXXXXXXXX -XX% ### Mentions: XX [#](/creator/twitter::888118103095115780/posts_active)  - X Week XXX -XX% - X Month XXX +63% - X Months XXXXX +10% - X Year XXXXX +21% ### Followers: XXXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::888118103095115780/followers)  - X Week XXXXXXX +0.04% - X Month XXXXXXX +0.39% - X Months XXXXXXX +4.90% - X Year XXXXXXX +8.80% ### CreatorRank: XXXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::888118103095115780/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence [#](/creator/twitter::888118103095115780/influence) --- **Social category influence** [countries](/list/countries) [finance](/list/finance) [currencies](/list/currencies) #3102 [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations) [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) [stocks](/list/stocks) [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) **Social topic influence** [tariffs](/topic/tariffs) #548, [china](/topic/china) #2388, [russia](/topic/russia) #346, [robin](/topic/robin) #74, [ukraine](/topic/ukraine) #270, [happened](/topic/happened) #951, [fed](/topic/fed), [mexican peso](/topic/mexican-peso), [rates](/topic/rates), [german](/topic/german) **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@joequant](/creator/undefined) [@bradsetser](/creator/undefined) [@adamtooze](/creator/undefined) [@heimbergecon](/creator/undefined) [@ugrasulkuiif](/creator/undefined) [@brookingsinst](/creator/undefined) [@econharris](/creator/undefined) [@sandertordoir](/creator/undefined) [@borghiclaudio](/creator/undefined) [@letsarmukr](/creator/undefined) [@ft](/creator/undefined) [@sanctionsaml](/creator/undefined) [@mcastellano44](/creator/undefined) [@noahpinion](/creator/undefined) [@jakluge](/creator/undefined) [@mcklein](/creator/undefined) [@econchart](/creator/undefined) [@krishna760024](/creator/undefined) [@hannolustig](/creator/undefined) [@vandadghiassi](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/bitcoin) [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$googl) ### Top Social Posts [#](/creator/twitter::888118103095115780/posts) --- Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours "We all want fiscal responsibility. But that won't happen as long as central banks cap yields when they spike as the Fed did in 2020. You can cap yields but that inevitably incentivizes bad fiscal policy. Our fiscal mess is inextricably linked to the Fed"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1946909495013068965) 2025-07-20 12:26:10 UTC 344.1K followers, 96.6K engagements "@HuaisiCen Sure but do you have any evidence of any such construction projects or are you just speculating"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1946665128977477730) 2025-07-19 20:15:08 UTC 344.2K followers, 7240 engagements "@jurgen_nauditt For countries like Malta Greece and Cyprus to hold up measures that aim to make the XX member countries of the EU safer is laughable. The EU is broken and needs deep reform. The status quo gives de facto veto power over sanctions to shipping oligarchs in Greece Cyprus & Malta"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1945466410102140971) 2025-07-16 12:51:51 UTC 344.2K followers, 1828 engagements "Only one question matters now: "Why has China not devalued" US tariffs have reached blistering levels and are a big negative shock to China. The only reason I can think of is that China is scared of Trump. Devaluation will escalate the trade war further. China is afraid of that"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1910413013825319304) 2025-04-10 19:22:10 UTC 344.2K followers, 84.8K engagements "Price action since Friday offers a good lens on where the Yen carry trade is concentrated. EM currencies that have been most hit are the Mexican Peso and Colombian Peso both of which have been known to harbor lots of carry trades. South Africa and Turkey are also getting hit"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1820469916912566755) 2024-08-05 14:40:25 UTC 344.1K followers, 27.7K engagements "President Trump goes to the Fed and bickers in public with Chair Powell over the cost of Fed renovations while both are wearing hard hats. What does the Dollar do It goes up. Yesterday was above all a lesson in markets who look right through this stuff as political theater"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1948712153105498148) 2025-07-25 11:49:17 UTC 344.1K followers, 11.5K engagements "Markets have ignored the coming inflation impulse from tariffs. Inflation break-evens this year follow their usual path dictated by residual seasonality in the CPI rising in Q1 and then falling back (blue). Lots of room for markets to reprice which means upside for the Dollar"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1947297982686081189) 2025-07-21 14:09:52 UTC 344.1K followers, 12.7K engagements "Images of ICE arrests and deportation are hard to watch. Today's Substack puts the numbers for these things into context against the previous huge migration inflow. We urgently need reform of asylum law to better balance needs of citizens vs non-citizens"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1947262366892036298) 2025-07-21 11:48:21 UTC 344.1K followers, 9751 engagements "The Dollar is having a moment. It's up almost X% so far this month and there's an important lesson in that. Markets don't care about tariff headlines unless they're about China. Everyone else is just along for the ride. I wrote about this over the weekend"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1945454309849669978) 2025-07-16 12:03:46 UTC 344.2K followers, 27.8K engagements "@Brad_Setser Only possible if there are massive transshipments to the US"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1948515386481410367) 2025-07-24 22:47:24 UTC 344.2K followers, 2663 engagements "Banks in Frankfurt are somehow just way more romantic than banks pretty much anywhere else"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1945890169879470252) 2025-07-17 16:55:44 UTC 344.2K followers, 12.5K engagements "Yesterday's images of President Trump and Chair Powell bickering in hard hats were shocking. If ever there was a time when markets should've priced a Trump risk premium this was it. But they didn't. Markets see this stuff as political theater and move on"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1948703918105448806) 2025-07-25 11:16:33 UTC 344.1K followers, 10.8K engagements "Trump's secondary tariffs vs shadow fleet sanctions: (i) sanctions shut down shadow fleet ships tariffs do not; (ii) easy to scale up sanctions tariffs are much blunter; (iii) a lower G7 cap complements sanctions no such complementarity for tariffs. @econ_harris @BrookingsInst"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1945106483030471134) 2025-07-15 13:01:38 UTC 344.1K followers, 52.2K engagements "@WernerGuenner @ConStelz There's ways to deal with lower immigration. Germany and the rest of Europe need to raise retirement age which is only fair since life expectancy is up so much. Large-scale immigration especially the uncontrolled variety of recent years is unpopular. That's the hard reality"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1947657291211411820) 2025-07-22 13:57:38 UTC 344.1K followers, XXX engagements "@CarlosRamirezF What's happening with Mexican Peso is scary. The Peso has risen so much in real effective terms that it's causing a big deterioration in Mexico's underlying current account balance. Add to that what might happen if Trump wins in November and I think the Peso is very vulnerable"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1769429457578635550) 2024-03-17 18:23:51 UTC 344.1K followers, 1.5M engagements "China needs to ease monetary policy to counter the deflationary impulse from tariffs. But it can't as the inevitable byproduct of easing is a weaker Yuan which China doesn't want. China is stuck as are rate differentials. The result: rising real rates and even worse deflation"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1939324671419162946) 2025-06-29 14:06:47 UTC 344.2K followers, 62.2K engagements "I'm doing a live stream discussion with @tashecon on Russia sanctions this Friday at X am (ET). No one knows Russia better than Tim. After all he came up with the term "Fortress Russia" which he's since replaced with "Rubble Russia." Substack link below"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1947328415519879300) 2025-07-21 16:10:48 UTC 344.1K followers, 9612 engagements "If markets really worried about Fed independence you'd expect the short-term rate differential of the US vs the G10 (black) to fall as markets price more politically-driven rate cuts while longer-term differentials like 10y10y forward (orange) should rise. NO sign of that"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1948512553476280784) 2025-07-24 22:36:09 UTC 344.1K followers, 9898 engagements "US exceptionalism isn't over. It's the opposite. Foreign flows into Treasuries and US stocks roared back in May after small outflows in April. This suggests the fall in the Dollar happened on narrow liquidity. Markets still believe in US outperformance"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1948002927853126017) 2025-07-23 12:51:04 UTC 344.1K followers, 40.3K engagements "@FrensWuiMade @yieldsearcher I find it somewhat remarkable that - after massive transshipments from the EU to Russia via all kinds of places (which built to huge levels in an instant) - there's still anyone claiming China isn't transshipping on a material scale. I mean come on"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1947062487112704044) 2025-07-20 22:34:06 UTC 344.1K followers, 1239 engagements "Euro longs in the CFTC's CoT report are near all-time highs (blue). This build-up in positioning embeds expectations that can't possibly be met. The Euro zone is locked into a stand-off between the high-debt South and low-debt North. It's frozen in place"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1949360053833662643) 2025-07-27 06:43:48 UTC 344.1K followers, 14.5K engagements "LatAm FX is a bloodbath since Mexico's election. It makes sense for Mexican Peso to weaken since it was substantially overvalued in the run-up to the election. But it makes no sense to me why there is contagion to the Colombian Peso or Brazilian Real. No overvaluation there"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1800897984508682347) 2024-06-12 14:28:33 UTC 344.2K followers, 177.6K engagements "China is in a tough spot. It's exports to the US are down -XX% q/q in Jun '25. Exporters have only X options: (i) transship to the US; (ii) export goods to other countries at a discount to generate demand. Either way a big hit to profitability and a deflationary shock for China"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1947016956105605167) 2025-07-20 19:33:10 UTC 344.1K followers, 184.6K engagements "Single biggest source of oil tankers for Putin's shadow fleet is Greece (blue). That's an opportunity for the EU to grow not sweep this under the rug. An investigation is needed to uncover how this happened. That will strengthen the EU not weaken it. @econ_harris @BrookingsInst"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1945078251153436905) 2025-07-15 11:09:27 UTC 344.1K followers, 96.7K engagements "Not loving this piece by @AlexGabuev in the @FT. Best way for the EU to negotiate with China is to hit Russia as hard as possible. That means sanctioning all the shadow fleet to shut down Putins war machine. The rest will sort itself out"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1948057590807597438) 2025-07-23 16:28:17 UTC 344.1K followers, 37.6K engagements "I'm doing a live stream discussion with @tashecon on Russia sanctions on Substack tomorrow morning at X am (ET). Tim knows Russia and Putin better than most. He was one of the only Russia analysts to loudly warn that invasion was coming before it happened. This is a must listen"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1948490962566599160) 2025-07-24 21:10:21 UTC 344.1K followers, 15.9K engagements "Encounters on the Southwest US border fell to their lowest level EVER in Jun. '25. No matter how you feel about immigration this shows that border enforcement is totally possible. A big part of that is using the threat of tariffs with Mexico so that it polices its own borders"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1945460421109891229) 2025-07-16 12:28:03 UTC 344.1K followers, 7886 engagements "This chart puts recent ICE detentions (black) in historical perspective against the migration inflow on the Southwest land border (blue) in recent years. ICE detentions have certainly picked up but they're tiny relative to the huge migrant inflow that happened in recent years"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1946665978877575678) 2025-07-19 20:18:31 UTC 344.2K followers, 72.3K engagements "Public debt is inextricably linked to Europes security. Germany can be generous with its support for Ukraine because it has low debt. Italy France and Spain cant give much because theyre over-indebted. Public debt is at the root of European insecurity"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1948084408692716019) 2025-07-23 18:14:51 UTC 344.2K followers, 10.5K engagements "China today released June trade data. Its exports to Nauru - the third smallest country in the world after the Vatican and Monaco - are up 6000% from a year ago. A symptom of how powerfully US tariffs are hitting China pushing a flood of Chinese exports to everywhere else"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1946304380384235683) 2025-07-18 20:21:39 UTC 344.1K followers, 799.4K engagements "In a recent @BrookingsInst essay @econ_harris @LiamEcon and I argued that the EU has the power to go it alone on sanctions. That's exactly what today's 18th sanctions package does. Our analysis shows shadow fleet sanctions to be highly effective. Kudos"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1946217142602408280) 2025-07-18 14:35:00 UTC 344.2K followers, 10.6K engagements "The world's top X most romantic cuisines right now X. German X. Japanese X. Korean X. Italian X. British"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1947006939168117039) 2025-07-20 18:53:22 UTC 344.1K followers, 63K engagements "Since the imposition of large US tariffs China's exports to Hungary are up 40%. This kind of thing is a symptom of all the pressure building up on Chinese exporters who are struggling with overflowing warehouses. A massive deflationary shock for everyone outside the US"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1946311109985583476) 2025-07-18 20:48:23 UTC 344.2K followers, 66.8K engagements "Fiscal policy is on an unsustainable path in the US. That'll only change when the Fed stops capping yields in bad shocks. It did that with huge emergency QE during COVID (blue) which prevented a debt crisis. We can cap yields in bad shocks but the result is bad fiscal policy"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1946552328296759710) 2025-07-19 12:46:54 UTC 344.2K followers, 11.7K engagements "Starting this live stream with @tashecon in a few minutes. Tim called Russia's invasion of Ukraine ahead of time unlike the vast majority of Russia analysts out there. He'll give us his take on where we are now and what need to be done to shut Russia down"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1948712555251212722) 2025-07-25 11:50:53 UTC 344.1K followers, 15K engagements "@igkolev That's certainly what's been going on with Kyrgyzstan where German exports to Kyrgyzstan never actually show up there and presumably go straight to Moscow. So Kyrgyzstan is just what gets written on the invoice. I don't know about Nauru but that's certainly possible"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1946589109822038027) 2025-07-19 15:13:04 UTC 344.1K followers, 9901 engagements "@GerigJack Border crossings changed very substantially and I consider these data accurate. Part of the rise is a post-COVID catch-up but most is due to the Biden administration making this kind of immigration easier on the Southwest land border"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1946667894810542306) 2025-07-19 20:26:08 UTC 344.1K followers, XXX engagements "So it turns out that Bitcoin is just another bubble asset that blows up when the Fed gets serious about hiking interest rates. Zero store of value function. Zero diversification benefit. Zero yield. Sayonara Bitcoin"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1635737026820538374) 2023-03-14 20:17:52 UTC 344.1K followers, 3.1M engagements "After Russia invaded Ukraine many Western analysts painted Russia as invincible (Fortress Russia). In the trade war now it's similar with China. Much like for Russia this stuff is nonsense and misinformation. China's export machine is really hurting"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1946182407733789104) 2025-07-18 12:16:58 UTC 344.1K followers, 92.3K engagements "When people tell me the Dollar needs to fall because of Trump I wonder if they have any idea how FX markets trade. FX markets go long Turkish Lira a few weeks after Erdogan jails the opposition leader. FX markets don't penalize this kind of stuff. They just want to make money"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1943278295497228556) 2025-07-10 11:57:04 UTC 344.1K followers, 43.6K engagements "@joequant Here's what Google AI says about your claim. It does not back up what you are saying. Further yesterday you claimed the spike in Nauru's imports from China was due to diplomatic relations. Your story changes every day. It sounds to me like you're just spreading misinformation"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1946595423956672901) 2025-07-19 15:38:09 UTC 344.1K followers, 80.8K engagements "@DiTralle Why so angry House prices went up because imported low German interest rates when it joined the Euro. That was a big windfall that benefitted all home owners in Italy. You don't want to pay some tax on that big capital gain That's called having your cake and eating it too"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1944834067809083614) 2025-07-14 18:59:09 UTC 344.1K followers, XXX engagements "Only time Brazil's Real has gotten close to my $/BRL XXXX fair value is in Apr. '22 after Russia's invasion of Ukraine which spiked commodity prices lifting Brazil's terms of trade lots. The Real is again strengthening now but due to Dollar weakness. Much less powerful"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1941871617979625546) 2025-07-06 14:47:26 UTC 344.1K followers, 68K engagements "With friends like these who needs enemies Hungary (lhs) and Bulgaria (rhs) have massively ramped up imports from China. The EU needs to find a way to kick out "Trojan Horse" countries. If you can't behave properly your actions should have consequences. As opposed to nothing"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1945888609598394575) 2025-07-17 16:49:32 UTC 344.1K followers, 44.6K engagements "@Bullbull1231 Everyone knows this. Especially the folks at UniCredit which is why theyre trying to get their hands on Commerzbank"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1945895906131296642) 2025-07-17 17:18:31 UTC 344.2K followers, XXX engagements "Trump is leaning on the Fed to cut rates. Turkey's Erdogan did that in 2021 firing the hawkish CBRT Governor. What followed were rate cuts that sent Lira going into a devaluation spiral from which it has yet to recover. The Fed's independent for a reason"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1940367213393064415) 2025-07-02 11:09:28 UTC 344.1K followers, 157.8K engagements "The Colombian Peso is up XX% against the Dollar this year making it the strongest performer across EM. Much of Latin America - de facto - attained G10 status during COVID thanks to its central banks. Colombia's central bank is an absolute leader in this regard. @PaolaGuscoffIIF"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1726261708170379332) 2023-11-19 15:30:38 UTC 344.1K followers, 60.9K engagements "There's been a lot of Schadenfreude out of Europe about a supposed capital flows exodus from the US. Here's the thing. There is no exodus. May saw the biggest inflow in foreign portfolio flows into the US ever. Markets really don't think the US "exceptionalism" story is over"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1947694483606249878) 2025-07-22 16:25:25 UTC 344.2K followers, 44.5K engagements "Ill be doing a live stream with @tashecon on Russia sanctions this Friday (Jul 25) at X am (ET). Tim coined the term Fortress Russia many years ago. Well see if he still thinks its still a fortress. Photo is from a summit in Uludag in Turkey in 2019"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1947633406201802837) 2025-07-22 12:22:43 UTC 344.1K followers, 39K engagements "Secondary tariffs punish China to hurt Russia. Better for the US to hit Russia directly by joining the EU and UK in shadow fleet sanctions which are working well. Latest piece by @econ_harris and myself for the @russia_matters blog at the @BelferCenter"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1949076435705991292) 2025-07-26 11:56:49 UTC 344.1K followers, 12.6K engagements "China's monthly exports to Qatar just doubled. Ever since the US raised tariffs on China to XX% there's an explosion of transshipments to the US via all kinds of places. This is a sign how badly US tariffs are hurting China's export machine. China's exporters are desperate"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1945885516492107914) 2025-07-17 16:37:14 UTC 344.2K followers, 42.8K engagements "Here's new export orders in today's "flash" release of the manufacturing PMIs for Jul '25. Remarkable thing is that tariffs seem to have done nothing to dent German new export orders (blue). The US also looks fine (red). France is very weak (black) but - well - that's France"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1948390365733507304) 2025-07-24 14:30:37 UTC 344.1K followers, 8973 engagements "The EU had no leverage over Trump. Had it years ago stopped Greek ship owners from selling oil tankers to Russia or if it'd shut down the shadow fleet since then it'd be a different story. But it didn't. The EU undermined itself and had to make a deal"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1949732365246337495) 2025-07-28 07:23:14 UTC 344.1K followers, 14.4K engagements "This is going to be a bad week for the Yen and long-term Japanese government bond yields. When you let debt rise out of control - with the help of your central bank - that just ends up putting you in a straightjacket with no good options. Japan is in a very difficult place"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1947028642648752395) 2025-07-20 20:19:37 UTC 344.1K followers, 37.3K engagements "Euro makes new all-time highs every day in trade weighted terms. Many countries - above all China - peg to the Dollar. That supercharges the rise in Euro vs USD (white) taking Euro to stratospheric levels in trade-weighted terms (orange). Deflation is coming for the Euro zone"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1942674587445350866) 2025-07-08 19:58:09 UTC 344.1K followers, 102.7K engagements "Macro XXX on China tariffs. If China doesn't transship goods to the US it must export them to the rest of the world (ROW)). Supply of goods to ROW goes up. Since ROW demand is unchanged prices must fall to generate demand. US tariffs are a deflationary shock for China and ROW"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1947323529491345574) 2025-07-21 15:51:23 UTC 344.1K followers, 117.5K engagements "No sign reckless US fiscal policy is eroding demand for Treasuries. Chart shows 10-year Treasury yield minus trade-weighted foreign 10-year yields converted back into Dollars using FX forwards. US yields have risen above foreign yields but that rise happened over a decade ago"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1949592758529778135) 2025-07-27 22:08:29 UTC 344.1K followers, 14.8K engagements "Trump wants to use secondary tariffs to punish Russia. Bad idea. China tariffs would go back up to 150%. When that happened in April the Treasury market broke. Better to sanction the shadow fleet. Why make China collateral damage when you don't have to"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1949073988816130424) 2025-07-26 11:47:05 UTC 344.1K followers, 12.2K engagements "Mexico's Peso has fallen after this weekend's elections but the sell-off is small versus how much the Peso has risen since COVID. Peso strength is a bubble fed by a narrative of friend-shoring and high interest rates. It's in Mexico's best interest for that bubble to unwind"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1797985377866903788) 2024-06-04 13:34:53 UTC 344.1K followers, 145.3K engagements "If China's exports show a sharp rise to one country that could be for idiosyncratic reasons. But if China's exports rise to all kinds of places right after the imposition of big US tariffs that's a sign China is scrambling to find new export markets. That's what's happening"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1947654379093287084) 2025-07-22 13:46:04 UTC 344.1K followers, 80.7K engagements "The global trade war is ending. Today's global flash PMIs for Jul. '25 show the inflationary impulse from tariffs on the US is also ending. Upward pressure on output (blue line top left) & input (red line top left) prices is fading. No sign of supply chain disruptions anywhere"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1948406333096485066) 2025-07-24 15:34:04 UTC 344.1K followers, 31.6K engagements "Broken US fiscal policy has consequences. The yield on 10-year US Treasuries is around XX bps higher than the yield on equivalent G10 gov't bonds after those have been swapped back into Dollars using FX forwards. A fiscal irresponsibility premium that's rising ever since 2018"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1949736896118034456) 2025-07-28 07:41:15 UTC 344.1K followers, 9552 engagements "Nauru is the 3rd smallest country in the world after the Vatican and Monaco. But more importantly right now it's also the Kyrgyzstan of Micronesia. China's exports to Nauru are up 1400% in May from a year before. A sign how desperate China's exporters are to offload their stuff"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1945949298614468990) 2025-07-17 20:50:41 UTC 344.1K followers, 34.9K engagements "Lots of Western reporting makes China out to be an impervious monolith in the face of US tariffs. That stuff is just as misleading as the "Fortress Russia" coverage after the Ukraine invasion. China is heading into deflation. Nothing impervious about that"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1949079580037337375) 2025-07-26 12:09:18 UTC 344.1K followers, 16K engagements "Markets price XXX bps in cuts from the Fed through the end of next year. That's way more easing than markets price for any other G10 central bank. Kind of bonkers when you consider that tariffs are inflationary for the US and deflationary for everyone else. Dollar bullish"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1947295974973464701) 2025-07-21 14:01:54 UTC 344.1K followers, 10.3K engagements "De-escalation with China and the spate of recent trade deals including a rumored deal with the EU mean the bulk of the US trade deficit is now covered by trade deals. There's obviously lots of deals still to be negotiated but those don't really matter"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1948332014609834183) 2025-07-24 10:38:45 UTC 344.1K followers, 25K engagements "Chinese goods are flooding small out-of-the way places like Albania (lhs) and Switzerland (rhs). That's the huge impact US tariffs are having on Chinese exporters who face overflowing warehouses with goods that should have gone to the US and are now getting dumped elsewhere"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1946557180280246370) 2025-07-19 13:06:11 UTC 344.1K followers, 70.1K engagements "@purplerug @NotBlackCa_t @econ_harris @BrookingsInst There's always a registered owner and a beneficial owner. Registered owners operate the vessel. Beneficial owners get the profits. It's the beneficial owner that matters and - more often than not - in the case of ships sold to the shadow fleet that owner tends to be Greek"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1945165711820652868) 2025-07-15 16:56:59 UTC 344.1K followers, XXX engagements "German manufacturing had been in crisis well before Russia invaded Ukraine. Putin's invasion only made this structural decline worse. Europe has an easy offset to this: a weaker currency. Euro needs to fall well below parity to offset the crisis in European manufacturing"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1746496290542805124) 2024-01-14 11:35:38 UTC 344.1K followers, 118.8K engagements "Mexico should not waste time on counterproductive retaliation to US tariffs. Mexico is much smaller than the US so retaliation: (a) isn't credible; and (b) risks making a bad situation worse. Better to let the Mexican Peso fall. It is still substantially overvalued after all"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1886059098250133856) 2025-02-02 14:28:24 UTC 344.1K followers, 372K engagements "I was part of an interesting debate yesterday with @M_C_Klein and @jakluge on whether to trust Russian data. Current account and tax collection data diverged recently which is at least odd. If China manipulates its current account as @Brad_Setser flags what's stopping Russia"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1948029641832185922) 2025-07-23 14:37:13 UTC 344.1K followers, 8324 engagements "Today's live stream with @tashecon on Russia sanctions. I asked Tim how - unlike most other Russia analysts - he saw the Ukraine invasion coming. He said: "Russia was filling its field hospitals with blood supplies. That was the tell." A true must listen"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1948746042528182519) 2025-07-25 14:03:57 UTC 344.1K followers, 50.1K engagements "June was a bad month for LatAm. Mexican Peso did worst at -XXX% followed by Colombian Peso (-6.9%) and Brazilian Real (-6.0%). In Brazil lots of blame is directed at Lula but that's just political hackery. Much (not all) of recent Real weakness is about LatAm getting clobbered"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1807801827443835095) 2024-07-01 15:41:57 UTC 344.1K followers, 71.3K engagements "Treasury Secretary Bessent meets senior Chinese officials in Stockholm today. US threats of secondary tariffs just aren't credible. They'll re-escalate the trade war to where it was in April when the US backed down. My @russia_matters with @econ_harris:"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1949740294930399672) 2025-07-28 07:54:45 UTC 344.1K followers, 7738 engagements "It seems crazy but the Dollar has just had two really good days. It rallied all the way through the President and Chair Powell bickering at each other in hard hats and kept rallying today. Markets have looked right through the latest round of political theater in Washington"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1948896062913348011) 2025-07-26 00:00:04 UTC 344.1K followers, 27.3K engagements "The tariff inflation shock really got going in June. Core goods inflation (top left) was XX bps above where it normally is at this time of year (purple). The tariff hit is most pronounced for furniture (top right) & recreation (bottom left) but apparel is hit too (bottom right)"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1945212771588616517) 2025-07-15 20:03:59 UTC 344.2K followers, 46.8K engagements "@justwannasayth2 yes it's pretty crazy. Never in the history of Nauru has there ever been anything like this. Bonkers"  [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/x/robin_j_brooks) on [X](/post/tweet/1946310478742872300) 2025-07-18 20:45:53 UTC 344.2K followers, 19.5K engagements
[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]
@robin_j_brooks Robin Brooks
Robin Brooks posts on X about tariffs, china, russia, robin the most. They currently have XXXXXXX followers and 4584 posts still getting attention that total XXXXXX engagements in the last XX hours.
Engagements: XXXXXX #
- X Week XXXXXXX -XX%
- X Month XXXXXXXXX +53%
- X Months XXXXXXXXXX +38%
- X Year XXXXXXXXXX -XX%
Mentions: XX #
- X Week XXX -XX%
- X Month XXX +63%
- X Months XXXXX +10%
- X Year XXXXX +21%
Followers: XXXXXXX #
- X Week XXXXXXX +0.04%
- X Month XXXXXXX +0.39%
- X Months XXXXXXX +4.90%
- X Year XXXXXXX +8.80%
CreatorRank: XXXXXXX #
Social Influence #
Social category influence countries finance currencies #3102 travel destinations cryptocurrencies stocks technology brands
Social topic influence tariffs #548, china #2388, russia #346, robin #74, ukraine #270, happened #951, fed, mexican peso, rates, german
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @joequant @bradsetser @adamtooze @heimbergecon @ugrasulkuiif @brookingsinst @econharris @sandertordoir @borghiclaudio @letsarmukr @ft @sanctionsaml @mcastellano44 @noahpinion @jakluge @mcklein @econchart @krishna760024 @hannolustig @vandadghiassi
Top assets mentioned Bitcoin (BTC) Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)
Top Social Posts #
Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours
"We all want fiscal responsibility. But that won't happen as long as central banks cap yields when they spike as the Fed did in 2020. You can cap yields but that inevitably incentivizes bad fiscal policy. Our fiscal mess is inextricably linked to the Fed"
@robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-20 12:26:10 UTC 344.1K followers, 96.6K engagements
"@HuaisiCen Sure but do you have any evidence of any such construction projects or are you just speculating" @robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-19 20:15:08 UTC 344.2K followers, 7240 engagements
"@jurgen_nauditt For countries like Malta Greece and Cyprus to hold up measures that aim to make the XX member countries of the EU safer is laughable. The EU is broken and needs deep reform. The status quo gives de facto veto power over sanctions to shipping oligarchs in Greece Cyprus & Malta" @robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-16 12:51:51 UTC 344.2K followers, 1828 engagements
"Only one question matters now: "Why has China not devalued" US tariffs have reached blistering levels and are a big negative shock to China. The only reason I can think of is that China is scared of Trump. Devaluation will escalate the trade war further. China is afraid of that" @robin_j_brooks on X 2025-04-10 19:22:10 UTC 344.2K followers, 84.8K engagements
"Price action since Friday offers a good lens on where the Yen carry trade is concentrated. EM currencies that have been most hit are the Mexican Peso and Colombian Peso both of which have been known to harbor lots of carry trades. South Africa and Turkey are also getting hit" @robin_j_brooks on X 2024-08-05 14:40:25 UTC 344.1K followers, 27.7K engagements
"President Trump goes to the Fed and bickers in public with Chair Powell over the cost of Fed renovations while both are wearing hard hats. What does the Dollar do It goes up. Yesterday was above all a lesson in markets who look right through this stuff as political theater" @robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-25 11:49:17 UTC 344.1K followers, 11.5K engagements
"Markets have ignored the coming inflation impulse from tariffs. Inflation break-evens this year follow their usual path dictated by residual seasonality in the CPI rising in Q1 and then falling back (blue). Lots of room for markets to reprice which means upside for the Dollar" @robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-21 14:09:52 UTC 344.1K followers, 12.7K engagements
"Images of ICE arrests and deportation are hard to watch. Today's Substack puts the numbers for these things into context against the previous huge migration inflow. We urgently need reform of asylum law to better balance needs of citizens vs non-citizens" @robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-21 11:48:21 UTC 344.1K followers, 9751 engagements
"The Dollar is having a moment. It's up almost X% so far this month and there's an important lesson in that. Markets don't care about tariff headlines unless they're about China. Everyone else is just along for the ride. I wrote about this over the weekend" @robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-16 12:03:46 UTC 344.2K followers, 27.8K engagements
"@Brad_Setser Only possible if there are massive transshipments to the US" @robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-24 22:47:24 UTC 344.2K followers, 2663 engagements
"Banks in Frankfurt are somehow just way more romantic than banks pretty much anywhere else" @robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-17 16:55:44 UTC 344.2K followers, 12.5K engagements
"Yesterday's images of President Trump and Chair Powell bickering in hard hats were shocking. If ever there was a time when markets should've priced a Trump risk premium this was it. But they didn't. Markets see this stuff as political theater and move on" @robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-25 11:16:33 UTC 344.1K followers, 10.8K engagements
"Trump's secondary tariffs vs shadow fleet sanctions: (i) sanctions shut down shadow fleet ships tariffs do not; (ii) easy to scale up sanctions tariffs are much blunter; (iii) a lower G7 cap complements sanctions no such complementarity for tariffs. @econ_harris @BrookingsInst" @robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-15 13:01:38 UTC 344.1K followers, 52.2K engagements
"@WernerGuenner @ConStelz There's ways to deal with lower immigration. Germany and the rest of Europe need to raise retirement age which is only fair since life expectancy is up so much. Large-scale immigration especially the uncontrolled variety of recent years is unpopular. That's the hard reality" @robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-22 13:57:38 UTC 344.1K followers, XXX engagements
"@CarlosRamirezF What's happening with Mexican Peso is scary. The Peso has risen so much in real effective terms that it's causing a big deterioration in Mexico's underlying current account balance. Add to that what might happen if Trump wins in November and I think the Peso is very vulnerable" @robin_j_brooks on X 2024-03-17 18:23:51 UTC 344.1K followers, 1.5M engagements
"China needs to ease monetary policy to counter the deflationary impulse from tariffs. But it can't as the inevitable byproduct of easing is a weaker Yuan which China doesn't want. China is stuck as are rate differentials. The result: rising real rates and even worse deflation" @robin_j_brooks on X 2025-06-29 14:06:47 UTC 344.2K followers, 62.2K engagements
"I'm doing a live stream discussion with @tashecon on Russia sanctions this Friday at X am (ET). No one knows Russia better than Tim. After all he came up with the term "Fortress Russia" which he's since replaced with "Rubble Russia." Substack link below" @robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-21 16:10:48 UTC 344.1K followers, 9612 engagements
"If markets really worried about Fed independence you'd expect the short-term rate differential of the US vs the G10 (black) to fall as markets price more politically-driven rate cuts while longer-term differentials like 10y10y forward (orange) should rise. NO sign of that" @robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-24 22:36:09 UTC 344.1K followers, 9898 engagements
"US exceptionalism isn't over. It's the opposite. Foreign flows into Treasuries and US stocks roared back in May after small outflows in April. This suggests the fall in the Dollar happened on narrow liquidity. Markets still believe in US outperformance" @robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-23 12:51:04 UTC 344.1K followers, 40.3K engagements
"@FrensWuiMade @yieldsearcher I find it somewhat remarkable that - after massive transshipments from the EU to Russia via all kinds of places (which built to huge levels in an instant) - there's still anyone claiming China isn't transshipping on a material scale. I mean come on" @robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-20 22:34:06 UTC 344.1K followers, 1239 engagements
"Euro longs in the CFTC's CoT report are near all-time highs (blue). This build-up in positioning embeds expectations that can't possibly be met. The Euro zone is locked into a stand-off between the high-debt South and low-debt North. It's frozen in place" @robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-27 06:43:48 UTC 344.1K followers, 14.5K engagements
"LatAm FX is a bloodbath since Mexico's election. It makes sense for Mexican Peso to weaken since it was substantially overvalued in the run-up to the election. But it makes no sense to me why there is contagion to the Colombian Peso or Brazilian Real. No overvaluation there" @robin_j_brooks on X 2024-06-12 14:28:33 UTC 344.2K followers, 177.6K engagements
"China is in a tough spot. It's exports to the US are down -XX% q/q in Jun '25. Exporters have only X options: (i) transship to the US; (ii) export goods to other countries at a discount to generate demand. Either way a big hit to profitability and a deflationary shock for China" @robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-20 19:33:10 UTC 344.1K followers, 184.6K engagements
"Single biggest source of oil tankers for Putin's shadow fleet is Greece (blue). That's an opportunity for the EU to grow not sweep this under the rug. An investigation is needed to uncover how this happened. That will strengthen the EU not weaken it. @econ_harris @BrookingsInst" @robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-15 11:09:27 UTC 344.1K followers, 96.7K engagements
"Not loving this piece by @AlexGabuev in the @FT. Best way for the EU to negotiate with China is to hit Russia as hard as possible. That means sanctioning all the shadow fleet to shut down Putins war machine. The rest will sort itself out" @robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-23 16:28:17 UTC 344.1K followers, 37.6K engagements
"I'm doing a live stream discussion with @tashecon on Russia sanctions on Substack tomorrow morning at X am (ET). Tim knows Russia and Putin better than most. He was one of the only Russia analysts to loudly warn that invasion was coming before it happened. This is a must listen" @robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-24 21:10:21 UTC 344.1K followers, 15.9K engagements
"Encounters on the Southwest US border fell to their lowest level EVER in Jun. '25. No matter how you feel about immigration this shows that border enforcement is totally possible. A big part of that is using the threat of tariffs with Mexico so that it polices its own borders" @robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-16 12:28:03 UTC 344.1K followers, 7886 engagements
"This chart puts recent ICE detentions (black) in historical perspective against the migration inflow on the Southwest land border (blue) in recent years. ICE detentions have certainly picked up but they're tiny relative to the huge migrant inflow that happened in recent years" @robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-19 20:18:31 UTC 344.2K followers, 72.3K engagements
"Public debt is inextricably linked to Europes security. Germany can be generous with its support for Ukraine because it has low debt. Italy France and Spain cant give much because theyre over-indebted. Public debt is at the root of European insecurity" @robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-23 18:14:51 UTC 344.2K followers, 10.5K engagements
"China today released June trade data. Its exports to Nauru - the third smallest country in the world after the Vatican and Monaco - are up 6000% from a year ago. A symptom of how powerfully US tariffs are hitting China pushing a flood of Chinese exports to everywhere else" @robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-18 20:21:39 UTC 344.1K followers, 799.4K engagements
"In a recent @BrookingsInst essay @econ_harris @LiamEcon and I argued that the EU has the power to go it alone on sanctions. That's exactly what today's 18th sanctions package does. Our analysis shows shadow fleet sanctions to be highly effective. Kudos" @robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-18 14:35:00 UTC 344.2K followers, 10.6K engagements
"The world's top X most romantic cuisines right now X. German X. Japanese X. Korean X. Italian X. British" @robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-20 18:53:22 UTC 344.1K followers, 63K engagements
"Since the imposition of large US tariffs China's exports to Hungary are up 40%. This kind of thing is a symptom of all the pressure building up on Chinese exporters who are struggling with overflowing warehouses. A massive deflationary shock for everyone outside the US" @robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-18 20:48:23 UTC 344.2K followers, 66.8K engagements
"Fiscal policy is on an unsustainable path in the US. That'll only change when the Fed stops capping yields in bad shocks. It did that with huge emergency QE during COVID (blue) which prevented a debt crisis. We can cap yields in bad shocks but the result is bad fiscal policy" @robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-19 12:46:54 UTC 344.2K followers, 11.7K engagements
"Starting this live stream with @tashecon in a few minutes. Tim called Russia's invasion of Ukraine ahead of time unlike the vast majority of Russia analysts out there. He'll give us his take on where we are now and what need to be done to shut Russia down" @robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-25 11:50:53 UTC 344.1K followers, 15K engagements
"@igkolev That's certainly what's been going on with Kyrgyzstan where German exports to Kyrgyzstan never actually show up there and presumably go straight to Moscow. So Kyrgyzstan is just what gets written on the invoice. I don't know about Nauru but that's certainly possible" @robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-19 15:13:04 UTC 344.1K followers, 9901 engagements
"@GerigJack Border crossings changed very substantially and I consider these data accurate. Part of the rise is a post-COVID catch-up but most is due to the Biden administration making this kind of immigration easier on the Southwest land border" @robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-19 20:26:08 UTC 344.1K followers, XXX engagements
"So it turns out that Bitcoin is just another bubble asset that blows up when the Fed gets serious about hiking interest rates. Zero store of value function. Zero diversification benefit. Zero yield. Sayonara Bitcoin" @robin_j_brooks on X 2023-03-14 20:17:52 UTC 344.1K followers, 3.1M engagements
"After Russia invaded Ukraine many Western analysts painted Russia as invincible (Fortress Russia). In the trade war now it's similar with China. Much like for Russia this stuff is nonsense and misinformation. China's export machine is really hurting" @robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-18 12:16:58 UTC 344.1K followers, 92.3K engagements
"When people tell me the Dollar needs to fall because of Trump I wonder if they have any idea how FX markets trade. FX markets go long Turkish Lira a few weeks after Erdogan jails the opposition leader. FX markets don't penalize this kind of stuff. They just want to make money" @robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-10 11:57:04 UTC 344.1K followers, 43.6K engagements
"@joequant Here's what Google AI says about your claim. It does not back up what you are saying. Further yesterday you claimed the spike in Nauru's imports from China was due to diplomatic relations. Your story changes every day. It sounds to me like you're just spreading misinformation" @robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-19 15:38:09 UTC 344.1K followers, 80.8K engagements
"@DiTralle Why so angry House prices went up because imported low German interest rates when it joined the Euro. That was a big windfall that benefitted all home owners in Italy. You don't want to pay some tax on that big capital gain That's called having your cake and eating it too" @robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-14 18:59:09 UTC 344.1K followers, XXX engagements
"Only time Brazil's Real has gotten close to my $/BRL XXXX fair value is in Apr. '22 after Russia's invasion of Ukraine which spiked commodity prices lifting Brazil's terms of trade lots. The Real is again strengthening now but due to Dollar weakness. Much less powerful" @robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-06 14:47:26 UTC 344.1K followers, 68K engagements
"With friends like these who needs enemies Hungary (lhs) and Bulgaria (rhs) have massively ramped up imports from China. The EU needs to find a way to kick out "Trojan Horse" countries. If you can't behave properly your actions should have consequences. As opposed to nothing" @robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-17 16:49:32 UTC 344.1K followers, 44.6K engagements
"@Bullbull1231 Everyone knows this. Especially the folks at UniCredit which is why theyre trying to get their hands on Commerzbank" @robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-17 17:18:31 UTC 344.2K followers, XXX engagements
"Trump is leaning on the Fed to cut rates. Turkey's Erdogan did that in 2021 firing the hawkish CBRT Governor. What followed were rate cuts that sent Lira going into a devaluation spiral from which it has yet to recover. The Fed's independent for a reason" @robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-02 11:09:28 UTC 344.1K followers, 157.8K engagements
"The Colombian Peso is up XX% against the Dollar this year making it the strongest performer across EM. Much of Latin America - de facto - attained G10 status during COVID thanks to its central banks. Colombia's central bank is an absolute leader in this regard. @PaolaGuscoffIIF" @robin_j_brooks on X 2023-11-19 15:30:38 UTC 344.1K followers, 60.9K engagements
"There's been a lot of Schadenfreude out of Europe about a supposed capital flows exodus from the US. Here's the thing. There is no exodus. May saw the biggest inflow in foreign portfolio flows into the US ever. Markets really don't think the US "exceptionalism" story is over" @robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-22 16:25:25 UTC 344.2K followers, 44.5K engagements
"Ill be doing a live stream with @tashecon on Russia sanctions this Friday (Jul 25) at X am (ET). Tim coined the term Fortress Russia many years ago. Well see if he still thinks its still a fortress. Photo is from a summit in Uludag in Turkey in 2019" @robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-22 12:22:43 UTC 344.1K followers, 39K engagements
"Secondary tariffs punish China to hurt Russia. Better for the US to hit Russia directly by joining the EU and UK in shadow fleet sanctions which are working well. Latest piece by @econ_harris and myself for the @russia_matters blog at the @BelferCenter" @robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-26 11:56:49 UTC 344.1K followers, 12.6K engagements
"China's monthly exports to Qatar just doubled. Ever since the US raised tariffs on China to XX% there's an explosion of transshipments to the US via all kinds of places. This is a sign how badly US tariffs are hurting China's export machine. China's exporters are desperate" @robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-17 16:37:14 UTC 344.2K followers, 42.8K engagements
"Here's new export orders in today's "flash" release of the manufacturing PMIs for Jul '25. Remarkable thing is that tariffs seem to have done nothing to dent German new export orders (blue). The US also looks fine (red). France is very weak (black) but - well - that's France" @robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-24 14:30:37 UTC 344.1K followers, 8973 engagements
"The EU had no leverage over Trump. Had it years ago stopped Greek ship owners from selling oil tankers to Russia or if it'd shut down the shadow fleet since then it'd be a different story. But it didn't. The EU undermined itself and had to make a deal" @robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-28 07:23:14 UTC 344.1K followers, 14.4K engagements
"This is going to be a bad week for the Yen and long-term Japanese government bond yields. When you let debt rise out of control - with the help of your central bank - that just ends up putting you in a straightjacket with no good options. Japan is in a very difficult place" @robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-20 20:19:37 UTC 344.1K followers, 37.3K engagements
"Euro makes new all-time highs every day in trade weighted terms. Many countries - above all China - peg to the Dollar. That supercharges the rise in Euro vs USD (white) taking Euro to stratospheric levels in trade-weighted terms (orange). Deflation is coming for the Euro zone" @robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-08 19:58:09 UTC 344.1K followers, 102.7K engagements
"Macro XXX on China tariffs. If China doesn't transship goods to the US it must export them to the rest of the world (ROW)). Supply of goods to ROW goes up. Since ROW demand is unchanged prices must fall to generate demand. US tariffs are a deflationary shock for China and ROW" @robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-21 15:51:23 UTC 344.1K followers, 117.5K engagements
"No sign reckless US fiscal policy is eroding demand for Treasuries. Chart shows 10-year Treasury yield minus trade-weighted foreign 10-year yields converted back into Dollars using FX forwards. US yields have risen above foreign yields but that rise happened over a decade ago" @robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-27 22:08:29 UTC 344.1K followers, 14.8K engagements
"Trump wants to use secondary tariffs to punish Russia. Bad idea. China tariffs would go back up to 150%. When that happened in April the Treasury market broke. Better to sanction the shadow fleet. Why make China collateral damage when you don't have to" @robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-26 11:47:05 UTC 344.1K followers, 12.2K engagements
"Mexico's Peso has fallen after this weekend's elections but the sell-off is small versus how much the Peso has risen since COVID. Peso strength is a bubble fed by a narrative of friend-shoring and high interest rates. It's in Mexico's best interest for that bubble to unwind" @robin_j_brooks on X 2024-06-04 13:34:53 UTC 344.1K followers, 145.3K engagements
"If China's exports show a sharp rise to one country that could be for idiosyncratic reasons. But if China's exports rise to all kinds of places right after the imposition of big US tariffs that's a sign China is scrambling to find new export markets. That's what's happening" @robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-22 13:46:04 UTC 344.1K followers, 80.7K engagements
"The global trade war is ending. Today's global flash PMIs for Jul. '25 show the inflationary impulse from tariffs on the US is also ending. Upward pressure on output (blue line top left) & input (red line top left) prices is fading. No sign of supply chain disruptions anywhere" @robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-24 15:34:04 UTC 344.1K followers, 31.6K engagements
"Broken US fiscal policy has consequences. The yield on 10-year US Treasuries is around XX bps higher than the yield on equivalent G10 gov't bonds after those have been swapped back into Dollars using FX forwards. A fiscal irresponsibility premium that's rising ever since 2018" @robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-28 07:41:15 UTC 344.1K followers, 9552 engagements
"Nauru is the 3rd smallest country in the world after the Vatican and Monaco. But more importantly right now it's also the Kyrgyzstan of Micronesia. China's exports to Nauru are up 1400% in May from a year before. A sign how desperate China's exporters are to offload their stuff" @robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-17 20:50:41 UTC 344.1K followers, 34.9K engagements
"Lots of Western reporting makes China out to be an impervious monolith in the face of US tariffs. That stuff is just as misleading as the "Fortress Russia" coverage after the Ukraine invasion. China is heading into deflation. Nothing impervious about that" @robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-26 12:09:18 UTC 344.1K followers, 16K engagements
"Markets price XXX bps in cuts from the Fed through the end of next year. That's way more easing than markets price for any other G10 central bank. Kind of bonkers when you consider that tariffs are inflationary for the US and deflationary for everyone else. Dollar bullish" @robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-21 14:01:54 UTC 344.1K followers, 10.3K engagements
"De-escalation with China and the spate of recent trade deals including a rumored deal with the EU mean the bulk of the US trade deficit is now covered by trade deals. There's obviously lots of deals still to be negotiated but those don't really matter" @robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-24 10:38:45 UTC 344.1K followers, 25K engagements
"Chinese goods are flooding small out-of-the way places like Albania (lhs) and Switzerland (rhs). That's the huge impact US tariffs are having on Chinese exporters who face overflowing warehouses with goods that should have gone to the US and are now getting dumped elsewhere" @robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-19 13:06:11 UTC 344.1K followers, 70.1K engagements
"@purplerug @NotBlackCa_t @econ_harris @BrookingsInst There's always a registered owner and a beneficial owner. Registered owners operate the vessel. Beneficial owners get the profits. It's the beneficial owner that matters and - more often than not - in the case of ships sold to the shadow fleet that owner tends to be Greek" @robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-15 16:56:59 UTC 344.1K followers, XXX engagements
"German manufacturing had been in crisis well before Russia invaded Ukraine. Putin's invasion only made this structural decline worse. Europe has an easy offset to this: a weaker currency. Euro needs to fall well below parity to offset the crisis in European manufacturing" @robin_j_brooks on X 2024-01-14 11:35:38 UTC 344.1K followers, 118.8K engagements
"Mexico should not waste time on counterproductive retaliation to US tariffs. Mexico is much smaller than the US so retaliation: (a) isn't credible; and (b) risks making a bad situation worse. Better to let the Mexican Peso fall. It is still substantially overvalued after all" @robin_j_brooks on X 2025-02-02 14:28:24 UTC 344.1K followers, 372K engagements
"I was part of an interesting debate yesterday with @M_C_Klein and @jakluge on whether to trust Russian data. Current account and tax collection data diverged recently which is at least odd. If China manipulates its current account as @Brad_Setser flags what's stopping Russia" @robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-23 14:37:13 UTC 344.1K followers, 8324 engagements
"Today's live stream with @tashecon on Russia sanctions. I asked Tim how - unlike most other Russia analysts - he saw the Ukraine invasion coming. He said: "Russia was filling its field hospitals with blood supplies. That was the tell." A true must listen" @robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-25 14:03:57 UTC 344.1K followers, 50.1K engagements
"June was a bad month for LatAm. Mexican Peso did worst at -XXX% followed by Colombian Peso (-6.9%) and Brazilian Real (-6.0%). In Brazil lots of blame is directed at Lula but that's just political hackery. Much (not all) of recent Real weakness is about LatAm getting clobbered" @robin_j_brooks on X 2024-07-01 15:41:57 UTC 344.1K followers, 71.3K engagements
"Treasury Secretary Bessent meets senior Chinese officials in Stockholm today. US threats of secondary tariffs just aren't credible. They'll re-escalate the trade war to where it was in April when the US backed down. My @russia_matters with @econ_harris:" @robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-28 07:54:45 UTC 344.1K followers, 7738 engagements
"It seems crazy but the Dollar has just had two really good days. It rallied all the way through the President and Chair Powell bickering at each other in hard hats and kept rallying today. Markets have looked right through the latest round of political theater in Washington" @robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-26 00:00:04 UTC 344.1K followers, 27.3K engagements
"The tariff inflation shock really got going in June. Core goods inflation (top left) was XX bps above where it normally is at this time of year (purple). The tariff hit is most pronounced for furniture (top right) & recreation (bottom left) but apparel is hit too (bottom right)" @robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-15 20:03:59 UTC 344.2K followers, 46.8K engagements
"@justwannasayth2 yes it's pretty crazy. Never in the history of Nauru has there ever been anything like this. Bonkers" @robin_j_brooks on X 2025-07-18 20:45:53 UTC 344.2K followers, 19.5K engagements