# ![@robin_j_brooks Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::888118103095115780.png) @robin_j_brooks Robin Brooks

The global economy is experiencing a "debasement trade" where investors are seeking safe-haven assets due to concerns over high debt levels and policy chaos. This trend is driving up the value of certain currencies, such as the Swedish krona, and assets like gold, although the recent precious metals rally has paused. The trade is also characterized by a shift away from fiat currencies and towards safe-haven assets, with some experts warning of a potential crisis in countries with high debt levels.

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### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[finance](/list/finance)  #2003 [countries](/list/countries)  38.22% [currencies](/list/currencies)  #2214 [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations)  1.27% [social networks](/list/social-networks)  0.64% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  0.64% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  0.64%

**Social topic influence**
[debt](/topic/debt) #61, [japan](/topic/japan) #478, [euro](/topic/euro) #1124, [gold](/topic/gold) #3390, [inflation](/topic/inflation) #83, [strong](/topic/strong) #1011, [ukraine](/topic/ukraine) #405, [russia](/topic/russia) #514, [in the](/topic/in-the) 6.37%, [currencies](/topic/currencies) #119

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### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"The US exorbitant privilege - the ability to issue debt more cheaply than others - ended about a decade ago. We're now issuing debt at a premium the result of deficits and debt that are out of control. This change is slow but it's happening. A warning. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-us-exorbitant-privilege https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-us-exorbitant-privilege"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2022289584873238724)  2026-02-13T12:39Z 369.4K followers, 13.7K engagements


"The Warsh nomination caused the Dollar to rebound a week ago today. The Dollar has held those gains even though rate differentials are now starting to move in a serious way against the Dollar. Lots of arguments for more Dollar weakness are stacking up. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-kevin-warsh-means-for-markets https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-kevin-warsh-means-for-markets"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2019667555536064900)  2026-02-06T07:00Z 369.4K followers, 15.1K engagements


"The weak Yen is a political liability for Takaichi into tomorrow's election. This explains recent intervention talk which was a cynical attempt to stabilize the Yen before the election. Once the election is out of the way the Yen will resume its fall. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/five-charts-on-japan-ahead-of-the https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/five-charts-on-japan-ahead-of-the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2020045623995912682)  2026-02-07T08:03Z 369.4K followers, 94.8K engagements


"The UK had a bad fiscal crisis in [----] but - unlike Japan - it has been able to stabilize the Pound. How did it do that There's no mystery. It allowed yields to rise freely while Japan uses the BoJ cap them. As long as that happens the Yen will fall. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-does-a-debt-crisis-look-like https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-does-a-debt-crisis-look-like"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2020114101565854159)  2026-02-07T12:35Z 369.4K followers, 85.8K engagements


"Inflation is the dog that didn't bark. We've had a huge rise in tariffs and the Dollar is falling. Yet inflation is well-behaved. The underlying reality is that there's a strong disinflationary dynamic that pre-dates COVID and is reasserting itself now. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/why-are-tariffs-not-lifting-us-inflation https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/why-are-tariffs-not-lifting-us-inflation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2022315236192030740)  2026-02-13T14:21Z 369.4K followers, 27.9K engagements


"If you're a fiscal basket case markets weaken your currency and push up government bond yields. Japan and Switzerland are polar opposites: Japan is a basket case Switzerland is a massive safe haven. The UK and the US are in uncomfortable middle ground. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-does-a-debt-crisis-look-like https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-does-a-debt-crisis-look-like"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2020837377934327846)  2026-02-09T12:29Z 369.4K followers, 49.6K engagements


"The price of Urals crude is trading at a 42% discount versus Brent. There's never been a bigger discount. It's critical for the EU's 20th sanctions package to move forward now with the ban on Western oil tankers. Time to override Greece and its oligarchs. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-eu-can-shut-down-russias-war https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-eu-can-shut-down-russias-war"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2021959761475117135)  2026-02-12T14:49Z 369.4K followers, 23.4K engagements


"Ever since COVID the start of the year has seen hot inflation prints because residual seasonality pushed up inflation in the first quarter. That isn't the case in Jan. '26 and I think that holds a warning for those forecasting an imminent inflation rise. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/why-are-tariffs-not-lifting-us-inflation https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/why-are-tariffs-not-lifting-us-inflation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2022320435484873139)  2026-02-13T14:42Z 369.4K followers, [----] engagements


"My forecast is for the Warsh Fed to cut policy rates by [---] bps in the [--] meetings after he takes over (June July September October) ahead of midterms. Markets are moving in this direction but still price only [--] bps in cuts for '25. That's Dollar down. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/five-charts-to-track-the-warsh-sentiment https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/five-charts-to-track-the-warsh-sentiment"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2022655414320636153)  2026-02-14T12:53Z 369.4K followers, 20.8K engagements


"Today marks a pivotal day for the Dollar. We had a big upside surprise on payrolls and the Dollar is flat. We are heading for a correlation break whereby strong US data drive USD down. That's how markets traded USD until [----] and we're going back to that. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/is-the-dollar-weak-or-strong https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/is-the-dollar-weak-or-strong"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2021666046185538029)  2026-02-11T19:22Z 369.4K followers, 39.5K engagements


"@colbyLsmith Plus there's all the residual seasonality that bedeviled Q1 inflation prints in recent years. Once you factor that in this is a very benign inflation reading that challenges the narrative that inflation will pick up this year. Hard to tell that story given this print"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2022322189886689791)  2026-02-13T14:49Z 369.4K followers, [----] engagements


"One truly baffling thing since the invasion of Ukraine is how India has stood in solidarity with Russia. What exactly does India hope to get out of this Putin is totally transactional. He'll drop India like a hot potato if he has to. So naive of India. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/indias-binge-on-russian-oil https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/indias-binge-on-russian-oil"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2022699054833029188)  2026-02-14T15:46Z 369.4K followers, 29.8K engagements


"The rise in Mexico's Peso is massive. Peso has reversed its 2015/6 fall that stemmed from falling oil prices due to US shale. So I get the Peso fall in 2015/6 and the negative shock that drove it. What is the positive shock that's now driving Peso strength I don't get that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1697984241777176617)  2023-09-02T14:46Z 369.2K followers, 475.4K engagements


"German manufacturing had been in crisis well before Russia invaded Ukraine. Putin's invasion only made this structural decline worse. Europe has an easy offset to this: a weaker currency. Euro needs to fall well below parity to offset the crisis in European manufacturing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1746496290542805124)  2024-01-14T11:35Z 369.3K followers, 118.9K engagements


"@CarlosRamirezF What's happening with Mexican Peso is scary. The Peso has risen so much in real effective terms that it's causing a big deterioration in Mexico's underlying current account balance. Add to that what might happen if Trump wins in November and I think the Peso is very vulnerable"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1769429457578635550)  2024-03-17T18:23Z 369.3K followers, 1.5M engagements


"In the medium term there's only one direction the US trade war with China will take: it'll get worse. The EU is uniquely vulnerable to this. It's being flooded with cheap Chinese goods and its debt levels are a disaster. The EU is collateral damage. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/collateral-damage-in-china-us-trade https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/collateral-damage-in-china-us-trade"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1978105226692268105)  2025-10-14T14:26Z 369.3K followers, 16.4K engagements


"The world's top [--] cities of the future [--]. Frankfurt [--]. Stockholm [--]. Toronto [--]. New York [--]. Tokyo"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1982476621438464359)  2025-10-26T15:57Z 369.3K followers, 834.1K engagements


"Markets are desperately looking for safe haven currencies. Swedish Krona is increasingly in focus: a well-run country that had the good sense to stay out of the increasingly dysfunctional Euro. Swedish Krona is also chronically undervalued. Lots of potential for appreciation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1983251045821153537)  2025-10-28T19:14Z 369.2K followers, 26.4K engagements


"Turkey is deeply divided: a secular elite on the coasts and a very religious conservative population in the interior. The way Erdogan keeps winning elections is by using one credit boom after another to artificially boost growth. That's unsustainable. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/turkey-under-erdogan-is-unsustainable https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/turkey-under-erdogan-is-unsustainable"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1989675964033646950)  2025-11-15T12:44Z 369.3K followers, 304K engagements


"My post that Germany must exit the Euro was greeted with the predictable accusation that I'm anti-European. No. The EU is a bystander on Ukraine when it should lead. Much of the blame goes to Italy and Spain for their endless debt shenanigans. Enough. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/why-germany-needs-to-leave-the-euro https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/why-germany-needs-to-leave-the-euro"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1992880712287187450)  2025-11-24T08:59Z 369.3K followers, 147.5K engagements


"A regime change is happening in global FX. Currencies that used to be cyclical and volatile are becoming safe havens as markets seek out countries with low debt. That's the Swedish Krona which now has a higher correlation with gold than Swiss Franc. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-currencies-are-in-the-debasement https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-currencies-are-in-the-debasement"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1995105246566101358)  2025-11-30T12:18Z 369.1K followers, 70K engagements


"Whenever the "debasement trade" gets going - it's just getting started again - Swedish Krona outperforms. Historically Krona has always been very cyclical and highly volatile but it's now morphing into a safe haven thanks to very low government debt. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-currencies-are-in-the-debasement https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-currencies-are-in-the-debasement"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1999459982887256349)  2025-12-12T12:43Z 369.1K followers, 26.6K engagements


"The Japanese Yen (black) is almost as weak as Turkish Lira (blue). This signals you can't hide from the consequences of high debt and bad fiscal policy. If you use your central bank to artificially cap yields your currency goes into a devaluation spiral. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/japans-yen-debasement https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/japans-yen-debasement"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2004517129547301244)  2025-12-26T11:38Z 369.2K followers, 109K engagements


"The call I'm proudest of in [----] is to flag Swedish Krona as a key winner in the debasement trade. Markets are scrambling for safe havens from debt monetization. Sweden has done a great job keeping its public debt under control and now reaps the benefits. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-currencies-are-in-the-debasement https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-currencies-are-in-the-debasement"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2005300746607317331)  2025-12-28T15:32Z 369.1K followers, 24.8K engagements


"Mexico is stuck. No one in Latin America wins any growth awards but everyone is growing at least a little bit even Brazil that stagnated for a long time. Not even huge Tren Maya investment fixed this. Time for an honest conversation about what's wrong. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/mexicos-growth-trap https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/mexicos-growth-trap"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2006014159134118112)  2025-12-30T14:47Z 369.1K followers, 122.7K engagements


"Argentina's latest capital flight episode which was massive and far exceeded [----] finally came to an end in November. There's only one reason that Argentina's growth lags everyone else in Latin America: a perverse desire to peg the Peso to the Dollar. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-argentinian-peso-after-the-election https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-argentinian-peso-after-the-election"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2006042792045265191)  2025-12-30T16:40Z 369.2K followers, 42.7K engagements


"Mexico stopped growing in [----]. This isn't about any one thing like cancellation of Mexico City's new airport. After all almost a decade later there's still no growth. Something much deeper and more worrying is wrong. Mexico should boom not stagnate. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/mexicos-growth-stagnation https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/mexicos-growth-stagnation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2007443808972091761)  2026-01-03T13:27Z 369.3K followers, 318.6K engagements


"Exchange rate pegs are always a distributional issue. An asset rich upper class likes pegs because they want to protect the Dollar value of their Peso-denominated assets. This comes at the expense of jobs the young and the working class. And in Argentina's case it NEVER works. I have known @robin_j_brooks as a serious economist for many years. But his recent commentary on Argentina has prompted me to speak up. Until now I have refrained from commenting on Robins posts about Argentina as most contained little substantive information. However his I have known @robin_j_brooks as a serious"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2007893212464402677)  2026-01-04T19:13Z 369.2K followers, 109.3K engagements


"Proponents of Argentina's peg to the Dollar always say the peg is necessary for economic stabilization. They don't say what an utter and total disaster this has been for growth. Argentina's real per capita GDP (pink) has fallen over the past [--] decades. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/where-is-stagnation-deepest-in-latin https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/where-is-stagnation-deepest-in-latin"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2008565679331701177)  2026-01-06T15:45Z 369.3K followers, 32.1K engagements


"The sheer audacity of Argentinians who promote the peg to the Dollar is breathtaking. In the many decades that this peg has been tried it has NEVER worked. Not even once. This obsession only made Argentina poor. This time is definitely not different. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/latin-americas-perpetual-growth-crisis https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/latin-americas-perpetual-growth-crisis"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2009618228646162935)  2026-01-09T13:28Z 369.3K followers, 44.8K engagements


"Mexico hasn't grown in a decade but it has among the highest real interest rates in the world. There's no point blaming Banxico for zero growth which is about drug cartels and corruption. But this is just one more sign Mexico is in a bad equilibrium. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/mexicos-growth-stagnation https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/mexicos-growth-stagnation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2010018182334193733)  2026-01-10T15:57Z 369.2K followers, 58.8K engagements


"Brazil gets far too little credit in global markets. It has consistently among the highest interest rates across all emerging markets yet it's managed to break out of the growth trap it was in before COVID. That's really a major accomplishment. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/brazils-remarkable-trade-surplus https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/brazils-remarkable-trade-surplus"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2010396808326082688)  2026-01-11T17:02Z 369.3K followers, 71.9K engagements


"Japan is trapped in a very bad place and is the G10 country that's closest to a full-blown debt crisis. Japan's only choice is to accept higher interest rates and a debt crisis or - if it caps yields - a depreciating Yen which is nearing its [----] lows. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-does-a-debt-crisis-look-like https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-does-a-debt-crisis-look-like"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2011056107335090631)  2026-01-13T12:41Z 369.3K followers, 546.6K engagements


"My first post on the "debasement trade" was on Sep [--] when gold and silver were up 9% since Jackson Hole on Aug [--]. Gold is now up 40% and silver 140%. On Sep [--] I had no clue how nuts things would get. I just wrote "something weird is going on with gold." https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/super-weird-markets-since-jackson https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/super-weird-markets-since-jackson"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2012619261752037804)  2026-01-17T20:13Z 369.3K followers, 31.2K engagements


"Japan's 10-year JGB yield is 2.3% (blue). But its 10y10y forward yield (orange) - what markets price for 10-year yield in [--] years' time - is 4.3% which is a level at which Japan's massive public debt is unsustainable. Japan is already in a debt crisis. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/japanese-denial-on-debt https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/japanese-denial-on-debt"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2013278008258294267)  2026-01-19T15:50Z 369.4K followers, 355.2K engagements


"This chart is getting scary. Silver (red) is now up 150% since Jackson Hole on Aug [--]. Gold (black) is up 42%. The debasement trade is on fire and precious metals are the outlet. There's two drivers: (i) geopolitics; and (ii) out-of-control fiscal policy. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-debasement-trade-roars-back https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-debasement-trade-roars-back"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2013599184167866561)  2026-01-20T13:07Z 369.3K followers, 17.8K engagements


"Japan is where MMT goes to die. MMT says a monetary sovereign like Japan can't run out of fiscal space as long as inflation is low. But the rise in yields & collapse in the Yen - even as inflation is low - say the opposite. A response to @StephanieKelton: https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/japan-where-mmt-goes-to-die https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/japan-where-mmt-goes-to-die"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2014322636558311897)  2026-01-22T13:01Z 369.4K followers, 225.8K engagements


"The debasement trade is raging. This trade isn't just about precious metals. Currencies of countries with low debt are doing extremely well. The leader of the pack is the Swedish Krona which has morphed from a cyclical volatile currency to a safe haven. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-currencies-are-in-the-debasement https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-currencies-are-in-the-debasement"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2015056430932353367)  2026-01-24T13:37Z 369.1K followers, 51.5K engagements


"The rise in gold and other precious metals has until recently been taking place with a stable Dollar. So this was about debasement of all G10 currencies not just USD. This past week changed that. USD is falling and that will accelerate the rise in gold. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/profound-dollar-weakness https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/profound-dollar-weakness"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2015430674509856923)  2026-01-25T14:24Z 369.3K followers, 85K engagements


"Easy to dismiss what's happening with gold as an oddity and speculative bubble. But the crazy rise started after Chair Powell's dovish speech at Jackson Hole on Aug. [--] and gained steam after the last Fed cut on Dec. [--]. The gold rise is all about macro. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/everything-you-need-to-know-about https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/everything-you-need-to-know-about"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2016101668488687723)  2026-01-27T10:51Z 369.4K followers, 29.4K engagements


"As precious metals go through the roof this is the debasement trade no one's talking about. The Swedish Krona is up 8% since Jackson Hole on Aug [--]. Precious metals are part of something much bigger: a flight to safety including into low-debt currencies. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-currencies-are-in-the-debasement https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-currencies-are-in-the-debasement"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2016108799623418021)  2026-01-27T11:19Z 369.4K followers, 33.4K engagements


"The Dollar continues its fall today. Leading indicator for me has been the Dollar vs EM (blue). That fell below the range it was in during H2 [----] after the last Fed cut on Dec [--]. The Dollar vs the G10 (black) is just about to go below that range now. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/dollar-collapse https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/dollar-collapse"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2016142053080539350)  2026-01-27T13:31Z 369.2K followers, 24.8K engagements


"The falling Dollar means the Euro is overshooting on the strong side. In broad trade-weighted terms (orange) the Euro is at levels we've never seen before and is likely to rise further. A deflationary shock is building for the Euro zone. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/red-alert-for-the-euro https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/red-alert-for-the-euro"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2016485861488030175)  2026-01-28T12:17Z 369.2K followers, 172.9K engagements


"If you want to get a sense how profound Dollar weakness is take a look at the Brazilian Real. $/BRL has fallen to its lowest level since May [----] and has done so very rapidly. 90% of moves in $/BRL have nothing to do with Brazil. They're just about USD. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/brazils-remarkable-trade-surplus https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/brazils-remarkable-trade-surplus"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2016493249741881607)  2026-01-28T12:47Z 369.3K followers, 79.2K engagements


"I don't know who needs to hear this but gold is up 7% from yesterday's close. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/everything-you-need-to-know-about https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/everything-you-need-to-know-about"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2016659270326952445)  2026-01-28T23:46Z 369.2K followers, 69.2K engagements


"Yesterday should have seen the Dollar rise and gold fall. Bessent reiterated strong Dollar policy and the Fed was upbeat about the US. But USD was flat and gold is up 7% in the past [--] hours. The Dollar feels heavy and the debasement trade is unstoppable. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-dollar-feels-heavy https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-dollar-feels-heavy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2016848378164846906)  2026-01-29T12:18Z 369.1K followers, 63.2K engagements


"There's lots of untruths on the rise in gold. The biggest is that central banks are buying gold and is based on this misleading chart. The share of gold in central bank reserves is going up because the price is rising. There's no central bank buying spree. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/debunking-the-myth-of-central-bank https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/debunking-the-myth-of-central-bank"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2016852775536103587)  2026-01-29T12:35Z 369.2K followers, 152.8K engagements


"My predictions for [----] were for the Dollar to fall and the debasement trade to roar. That's happening. The Fed is an inadvertent catalyst. Jackson Hole on Aug. [--] started the precious metals rally and every Fed meeting since is adding fuel to the fire. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2026 https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2026"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2016865446159335861)  2026-01-29T13:26Z 369.4K followers, 46.4K engagements


"We're getting a slew of good news for the Dollar in recent days including the news that Kevin Warsh is Trump's pick for Fed chair. But the Dollar is only managing to tread water when it should rise after its recent sharp fall. Real damage has been done. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-dollar-feels-heavy https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-dollar-feels-heavy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2017215076504047806)  2026-01-30T12:35Z 369.1K followers, 24.8K engagements


"Kevin Warsh is a really good pick for Fed Chair and known as a hawk. But markets are asking themselves what was promised to get the nod which is why the Dollar - after its huge decline in recent days - isn't managing to rally on what should be good news. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/q-and-a-on-the-dollar-meltdown https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/q-and-a-on-the-dollar-meltdown"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2017218494056583187)  2026-01-30T12:49Z 369.2K followers, 78.2K engagements


"Markets price [--] basis points in Fed cuts through end-2027. A hawk like Kevin Warsh makes it easier to build consensus on the FOMC around a high productivity low inflation narrative so we're almost sure to get more cuts. That's why the Dollar is heavy. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/five-charts-that-will-move-markets https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/five-charts-that-will-move-markets"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2017230897049641149)  2026-01-30T13:38Z 369.2K followers, 11.8K engagements


"The Dollar is up about 1% today. News about Warsh broke at 6:48 am but the Dollar didn't start rallying until around 9:50 am right after a big upside surprise on the Chicago PMI (at 9:45 am). So a lot of the Dollar rally today isn't really about Warsh. Not directly anyway"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2017348833462624572)  2026-01-30T21:26Z 369.2K followers, 17.2K engagements


"Yesterday's rise in the Dollar came after a big upside surprise to the Chicago PMI at 9:45 am. The Dollar did nothing after the official Truth Social post at 6:48 am. So the rise in USD wasn't about Warsh. We're still heading for Dollar weakness in [----]. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-kevin-warsh-means-for-markets https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-kevin-warsh-means-for-markets"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2017574797861962043)  2026-01-31T12:24Z 369.2K followers, 42.2K engagements


"Yesterday's rise in the Dollar and the big crash in precious metals is fooling many into thinking that markets see Warsh as a hawk. They don't. Here's the 2-year yield which fell steadily after the 6:48 am Truth Social post. Warsh will cut early and hard. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-kevin-warsh-means-for-markets https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-kevin-warsh-means-for-markets"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2017578412294946921)  2026-01-31T12:39Z 369.3K followers, 120.9K engagements


"The biggest risk for Warsh is that Trump turns on him the way he did on Powell. The best way to mitigate that risk is to use the high productivity low inflation narrative to cut rates early and aggressively. That keeps Trump quiet into the midterms. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/q-and-a-on-the-dollar-meltdown https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/q-and-a-on-the-dollar-meltdown"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2017583333442519194)  2026-01-31T12:58Z 369.2K followers, 22.1K engagements


"A falling Dollar isn't bad for Treasuries. It's good. Foreign central banks in EM always buy more Treasuries when the Dollar is weak and it'll be the same now. Treasury market wobbles in April [----] stemmed from a sharp rise in the Dollar versus EM (black). https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-falling-dollar-wont-hurt-treasuries https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-falling-dollar-wont-hurt-treasuries"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2017585219201564889)  2026-01-31T13:06Z 369.2K followers, 29.4K engagements


"Sweden is a strong voice for countering Russian aggression. So I am beyond proud to be co-organizing this event on Russia sanctions on Feb. [--] in Berlin with @Swebotschaft @kielinstitute and @BrookingsInst. Join the live stream https://www.kielinstitut.de/events/sanctions-and-russias-war-economy-what-works-whats-next/ https://www.kielinstitut.de/events/sanctions-and-russias-war-economy-what-works-whats-next/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2017628528024412193)  2026-01-31T15:58Z 369.2K followers, [----] engagements


"Silver fell 26% yesterday. That sounds apocalyptic but that only takes silver back to January [--] i.e. it only erases [--] weeks of gains. That's testament to how nuts the precious metals rally got lately but also to how massive the debasement trade is. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-we-know-about-the-debasement https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-we-know-about-the-debasement"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2017642023222743526)  2026-01-31T16:51Z 369.1K followers, 50.8K engagements


"Does Friday's silver crash end the debasement trade No. Friday's crash was inevitable after the crazy run-up in recent weeks. Signal to watch is rate markets. 2-year Treasury yield fell after the Kevin Warsh news. That's bullish for the debasement trade. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/does-fridays-crash-end-the-debasement https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/does-fridays-crash-end-the-debasement"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2017950989475528800)  2026-02-01T13:19Z 369.1K followers, 56.7K engagements


"Lots of focus on Kevin Warsh being a balance sheet hawk. That's a red herring. What matters is fiscal policy. We're running 6-7% of GDP deficits in a non-crisis time. That's pushing up long-term yields and makes political pressure on the Fed unavoidable. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-kevin-warsh-means-for-markets https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-kevin-warsh-means-for-markets"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2017959256759095807)  2026-02-01T13:52Z 369.3K followers, 37K engagements


"The saying goes that "there's no atheists in foxholes." Maybe Kevin Warsh is a balance sheet hawk but - when push comes to shove and markets are collapsing - he'll do QE just like everyone else. We are trapped and the debasement trade will keep going. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/does-fridays-crash-end-the-debasement https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/does-fridays-crash-end-the-debasement"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2017962296752881897)  2026-02-01T14:04Z 369.1K followers, 56.2K engagements


"The Japanese Yen has resumed its decline. Intervention can't hide the fact that - as long as the BoJ is buying JGBs to cap long-term yields - depreciation pressure on the Yen will remain. JGB yields need to be much higher to stop the fall in the Yen. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/why-is-the-japanese-yen-falling https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/why-is-the-japanese-yen-falling"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2018299915630264547)  2026-02-02T12:26Z 369.4K followers, 140.4K engagements


"I hear all the time the argument that Japanese yields have risen a lot so the Yen is undervalued. If that were true why has the Yen kept falling even as yields have risen massively Truth is that Japanese yields are still much too low given high debt. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-road-to-ruin-for-japan https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-road-to-ruin-for-japan"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2018305223937126607)  2026-02-02T12:47Z 369.3K followers, 67.8K engagements


"Gold is still falling today but the pace of its drop is slowing. We're down 12% from last week's peak but the sharp drop only takes gold back to where it was on Jan. [--]. Underlying driver for the debasement trade - bad fiscal policy - remains in place. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/does-fridays-crash-end-the-debasement https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/does-fridays-crash-end-the-debasement"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2018307484016898269)  2026-02-02T12:56Z 369.2K followers, 46.7K engagements


"Silver is now down 31% since its peak after last week's Fed meeting. The scale of the precious metals rally of recent weeks has been so nuts that this takes us back only to where silver was on Jan [--]. Silver is still up 110% since Jackson Hole on Aug [--]. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/does-fridays-crash-end-the-debasement https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/does-fridays-crash-end-the-debasement"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2018435258861961326)  2026-02-02T21:24Z 369.4K followers, 32.8K engagements


"The history of Japan's FX intervention is that it has never worked. Not once. Ever. That's again true now. Today's strong ISM has single-handedly unwound half the drop in $/JPY after the NY Fed's rate check. Only higher JGB yields can stabilize the Yen. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/japans-fx-intervention-cant-and-wont https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/japans-fx-intervention-cant-and-wont"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2018438313065988545)  2026-02-02T21:36Z 369.3K followers, 35.1K engagements


"The world's largest economies all run budget deficits that are way larger than before COVID. This is true for the US (top left) but it's also true for Canada (top right) Euro zone (bottom left) and UK (bottom right). Fiscal policy has become unmoored. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-reckless-fiscal-policy-looks https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-reckless-fiscal-policy-looks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2018654704826540271)  2026-02-03T11:56Z 369.3K followers, 35.5K engagements


"Gold rose 6% yesterday. There's no telling if this marks the end of the sell-off but my gut is that debasement fears are much greater than most people realize. As crazy as the precious metals bubble already is things are likely to get a lot crazier. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/does-fridays-crash-end-the-debasement https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/does-fridays-crash-end-the-debasement"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2018661207146914063)  2026-02-03T12:21Z 369.2K followers, 113.9K engagements


"Japan's FX intervention never works. That's true once again now as $/JPY heads back to where it was before the NY Fed "rate check." What's even worse about the latest episode is that it's so political seeing as it comes just before the Feb. [--] election. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/japans-fx-intervention-cant-and-wont https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/japans-fx-intervention-cant-and-wont"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2018926595957031318)  2026-02-04T05:56Z 369.4K followers, 64K engagements


"Only reason the Dollar has rebounded recently is that we got positive data surprises first for the Chicago PMI on Friday (lhs) and then for the ISM on Monday (rhs). Data surprises can't and won't sustainably boost USD and it's already resumed its slide. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/is-the-dollar-weak-or-strong https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/is-the-dollar-weak-or-strong"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2018932608256573699)  2026-02-04T06:20Z 369.2K followers, 25.9K engagements


"The Dollar is already resuming its slide. The recent rebound was built on sand and is ending as markets realize that this was just a temporary blip based on a few upside data surprises. Markets will refocus on Dollar weakness ahead. Key charts to watch: https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/five-charts-to-track-the-warsh-sentiment https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/five-charts-to-track-the-warsh-sentiment"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2018934443537211839)  2026-02-04T06:27Z 369.3K followers, 32K engagements


"The shadow fleet is Russia's Achilles heel. Together with @econ_harris from @BrookingsInst and @haroldhongjukoh from @YaleLawSch we have a new proposal for how Europe can take steps to clamp down on the shadow fleet and thereby hurt Putin's war machine. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/stiffening-european-sanctions-against-the-russian-oil-trade/ https://www.brookings.edu/articles/stiffening-european-sanctions-against-the-russian-oil-trade/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2018965961412399360)  2026-02-04T08:32Z 369.3K followers, 25.9K engagements


"Russia sanctions event last night with @Swebotschaft & @kielinstitute: @polinaivanovva from @FT @TorbjornBecker from @SITEStockholm @jimtankersley from @nytimes and @econ_harris from @BrookingsInst"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2018971476716572970)  2026-02-04T08:54Z 369.1K followers, [----] engagements


"On Monday I put out this chart pack to track market fallout from the Warsh nomination. Since then the Dollar is stable (lhs) and the only sustained move has been for the US yield curve to steepen (rhs). More upward pressure on global long-term yields. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/five-charts-to-track-the-warsh-sentiment https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/five-charts-to-track-the-warsh-sentiment"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2019258944380907962)  2026-02-05T03:57Z 369.3K followers, 17.3K engagements


"Markets are moving in the direction of pricing more cuts from the Fed. In recent day we've gone from pricing less than [--] bps in cuts to almost [--] bps (lhs) which has pulled down the 2y2y forward rate differential sharply (rhs). That should weigh on USD. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/five-charts-to-track-the-warsh-sentiment https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/five-charts-to-track-the-warsh-sentiment"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2019662968544457138)  2026-02-06T06:42Z 369.3K followers, 11K engagements


"US tariffs had the potential to cause large disruptions to global supply chains but that didn't happen. Unlike COVID delivery times remained totally normal (black) and it's only on the inflation front that we're seeing a modest uptick in the US (blue). https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/supply-chain-disruptions https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/supply-chain-disruptions"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2019665266481987919)  2026-02-06T06:51Z 369.3K followers, 11.8K engagements


"The Dollar versus EM (black) has been a much better leading indicator than the Dollar versus the G10 (blue). It began to signal meaningful Dollar weakness after the Fed's last cut on December [--] and continues to suggest that the Dollar will fall further. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/is-the-dollar-weak-or-strong https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/is-the-dollar-weak-or-strong"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2020111997602287972)  2026-02-07T12:26Z 369.3K followers, 13.5K engagements


"Incredibly romantic sunset as this Lufthansa A320 prepares to land in Frankfurt"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2020154781252141390)  2026-02-07T15:16Z 369.3K followers, [----] engagements


"@joehas @GaryHaubold The Euro is just a collection of exchange rate pegs. Nothing more and nothing less. It would be anti-European not to debate that the only anti-European thing would be to prohibit debate and name-call people. That would be anti-democratic and anti-European"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2020195666195366029)  2026-02-07T17:59Z 369.2K followers, [---] engagements


"@Brad_Setser You keep looking at spot JGB yields and $/JPY and thinking that - because yields have risen - the Yen is undervalued. Thats wrong because yields are artificially kept low by BoJ buying of JGBs. At current levels theyre not remotely Yen supportive. Just look at price action"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2020196949975265387)  2026-02-07T18:04Z 369.2K followers, [----] engagements


"The best leading indicator for Dollar direction is how it trades against EM. The Dollar bounced back a bit since the Warsh nomination but this was vs the G10 (blue). It remains near its lows vs EM (black). This is a sign more Dollar weakness is coming. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-dollar-is-starting-to-look-very https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-dollar-is-starting-to-look-very"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2020379314026672381)  2026-02-08T06:08Z 369.4K followers, 22.9K engagements


"The EU's 20th sanctions package bans Western oil tankers from transporting Russian oil. In the Baltic such ships are only 15% of capacity so the 20th package - like previous ones - dodges the hard stuff. It's the shadow fleet that must be shut down. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/das-recht-des-starkeren https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/das-recht-des-starkeren"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2020422954266562628)  2026-02-08T09:02Z 369.3K followers, 27.8K engagements


"@SMEXTHE1 Sure. Totally true. But monthly buying is still running at [--] trillion Yen. The fact that this is still going on isnt about monetary policy. Inflation has risen after all. Its entirely about preventing a sharp rise in JGB yields which would cause a debt crisis"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2020440654292132037)  2026-02-08T10:12Z 369.2K followers, [----] engagements


"Greek tankers are the only Western ships transporting Russian oil in the Baltic. Last week's 20th EU sanctions package shuts this down. That's good but Russia's shadow fleet will now take over totally in the Baltic. The EU must shut down the shadow fleet. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-eus-latest-russia-sanctions-package https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-eus-latest-russia-sanctions-package"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2020820733438402879)  2026-02-09T11:23Z 369.4K followers, 16.5K engagements


"Big thanks to @DavidWestin and @BloombergTV for an extensive discussion on the crazy rise in precious metals and the debasement trade. Both are about fiscal policy and public debt levels that are out of control in far too many places. Time is running out. https://www.youtube.com/watchv=PbI6HFU2lCc https://www.youtube.com/watchv=PbI6HFU2lCc"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2020823286280818735)  2026-02-09T11:33Z 369.3K followers, 18.2K engagements


"Great piece by @johnauthers on @business. Countries that don't take fiscal constraints seriously - like the UK under Truss - run into trouble in markets. Takaichi is in danger of falling into that trap in Japan with her promise to end excessive austerity. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2026-02-09/japan-election-takaichi-faces-bond-and-currency-markets-skepticism https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2026-02-09/japan-election-takaichi-faces-bond-and-currency-markets-skepticism"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2020826395749052515)  2026-02-09T11:45Z 369.3K followers, 10.6K engagements


"@_JackSalmon_ The #MMT response to this is that Japan isn't a monetary sovereign after all. Any example that doesn't fit their story is declared as unfit"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2020919725497221392)  2026-02-09T17:56Z 369.4K followers, [----] engagements


"One week ago @econ_harris & I organized a joint event with @Swebotschaft and @kielinstitute in Berlin on what lessons the West needs to learn from [--] years of Russia sanctions. Special thanks to @Nataliia_Shapo and @vladvlas from Ukraine. Youtube link here: https://www.youtube.com/watchv=F1sC4utm3dE https://www.youtube.com/watchv=F1sC4utm3dE"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2020925631677202710)  2026-02-09T18:19Z 369.3K followers, 10.7K engagements


"@aledinola @ricco_giovanni @micheleboldrin Thanks very much for reminding me of this. I get called anti-European all the time and it's just another way to try to shut down debate in Europe and silence people. Thank you for setting the record straight"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2020961948045816301)  2026-02-09T20:44Z 369.3K followers, [---] engagements


"@daniel_mcdowell My [--] cents on this stuff: if China were seriously trying to get out of Treasuries theyd be doing it as quietly as possible to avoid getting front run. In reality the trade surplus is bigger than ever and they peg to the Dollar. They have to buy Treasuries. Theyre stuck"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2020990190395777424)  2026-02-09T22:36Z 369.3K followers, [----] engagements


"@ricco_giovanni @aledinola Italy and Spain give no aid to Ukraine and are free-riding on others in Europe. Both countries insist they have fiscal space but when a real shock hits - like Ukraine - the truth is exposed. They have none. Their pretense is only possible because of the Euro. That must end"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2021181309809250441)  2026-02-10T11:15Z 369.3K followers, [--] engagements


"The Dollar versus EM today is down to a new low which is below its level [--] weeks ago at the height of Greenland headlines. It's the Dollar versus EM you want to watch for future direction. The signal it's sending is that more Dollar weakness is coming. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-dollar-is-starting-to-look-very https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-dollar-is-starting-to-look-very"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2021186723602927900)  2026-02-10T11:37Z 369.4K followers, 16.6K engagements


"@ricco_giovanni @aledinola The fact that transparency on Italian weapons deliveries is low doesn't change my point. It strengthens it. The Euro has become a vehicle for Italy to pretend it's solvent when it isn't. Just think where Italian bond yields would be without the ECB backstop. It's all pretend"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2021188138752680399)  2026-02-10T11:42Z 369.3K followers, [--] engagements


"@ricco_giovanni @aledinola The fact that you resort to insults so quickly is telling. Your argument is fundamentally weak because the facts and data go against you. And - by the way - I'm also European but - even if I weren't - I'd be allowed to have an opinion on the Euro. It's called free speech"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2021188850341622083)  2026-02-10T11:45Z 369.3K followers, [--] engagements


"@ricco_giovanni @aledinola More insults. Why don't you try substantive debate The Euro is just a system of exchange rate pegs. Nothing more and nothing less. If this system of exchange rate pegs gets abused by high-debt countries to peddle a fantasy it's no longer in good faith and needs to end. Sorry"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2021192109886247260)  2026-02-10T11:58Z 369.3K followers, [--] engagements


"@KathyJones I noticed that too. Then the message from Amtrak came that my train back down to DC is delayed and now I understand"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2021193247767355541)  2026-02-10T12:03Z 369.3K followers, [----] engagements


"@thetarikkhalil @DavidWestin @BloombergTV We discuss exactly this. I think there's good explanations for contained breakeven inflation and low 10-year yield that explain why neither has moved and that don't invalidate the debasement trade"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2021202800080994725)  2026-02-10T12:41Z 369.3K followers, [---] engagements


"RT @punclizme: "Now is the time for EU to shut down the shadow fleet.""  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2021202936727208084)  2026-02-10T12:41Z 369.4K followers, [--] engagements


"@TonyVolpon I've spent many years in the wilderness"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2021203109205463393)  2026-02-10T12:42Z 369.3K followers, [---] engagements


"@shashj Could we please stop saying Europe when it comes to support for Ukraine The support that's happening is from Germany the Nordics the UK plus Poland and the Baltics. Italy and Spain are free-riding and contributing next to nothing. It'd be good to be transparent about this"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2021204806287884604)  2026-02-10T12:49Z 369.3K followers, [----] engagements


"RT @Gray_Wolf1071: Greece is a vital enemy of both the European Union and NATO. Thousands of innocent Ukrainians have died because of the m"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2021317455243534731)  2026-02-10T20:16Z 369.3K followers, [--] engagements


"RT @JayinKyiv: Greece is making billions helping Putin genocide Ukraine"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2021563020032479699)  2026-02-11T12:32Z 369.3K followers, [---] engagements


"RT @ishiharajun: . https://t"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021591768089714908)  2026-02-11T14:26Z 369.3K followers, [--] engagements


"RT @diegosobol: Just look at Greece and Other Europe enjoying some ill-deserved profits. With friends and neighbors like these"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2021592123007455591)  2026-02-11T14:28Z 369.4K followers, [--] engagements


"RT @klaus_adam: You first need to fix your finances. Who wants to go to bed with a half-bankrupt partner"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2021601750487126139)  2026-02-11T15:06Z 369.3K followers, [--] engagements


"RT @ManuelSamuel: Why Didnt the USD Rally today A big NFP beat doesnt automatically mean a stronger USD if markets had already price"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2021601907496681804)  2026-02-11T15:07Z 369.4K followers, [--] engagements


"RT @HannoLustig: Hey roommate I'm bumping into my credit limit on my credit card. Let's get a joint credit card"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2021657133562179959)  2026-02-11T18:46Z 369.4K followers, [---] engagements


"RT @Kasparov63: What's the point of the EU when Putin can buy off a member or two--Greece Belgium Hungary--for different purposes to prev"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2021775398304927891)  2026-02-12T02:36Z 369.4K followers, [---] engagements


"RT @HannoLustig: Net interest expense of the federal government as % of GDP projected* by CBO to increase to 6.4% by [----]. As a benchmark"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2021838040444854318)  2026-02-12T06:45Z 369.4K followers, [--] engagements


"A few months ago I caused consternation by noting that the Yen is as weak as Turkish Lira (lhs). One pushback was that all Asian currencies are weak so this isn't a big deal. Actually the Yen is way weaker than its peers (rhs) amid sharply rising yields. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-weak-is-the-japanese-yen https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-weak-is-the-japanese-yen"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2014158555327119767)  2026-01-22T02:09Z 369.4K followers, 100.6K engagements


"@mark_dow It isn't Frankfurt is all I'll say"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2022322613150683364)  2026-02-13T14:50Z 369.4K followers, [----] engagements


"So it turns out that Bitcoin is just another bubble asset that blows up when the Fed gets serious about hiking interest rates. Zero store of value function. Zero diversification benefit. Zero yield. Sayonara Bitcoin"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1635737026820538374)  2023-03-14T20:17Z 369.4K followers, 3.1M engagements


"Brazil is on track to become the Switzerland of Latin America. A huge trade surplus is emerging unlike any other country in the region. This is going to give Brazil external stability and a strong currency unlike the rest of Latin America. Brazil will be the region's anchor"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1661793738715176960)  2023-05-25T17:57Z 369.4K followers, 3.2M engagements


"Exports from Czech Republic to Kyrgyzstan are up 1200% since Russia invaded Ukraine. That puts Czech ahead of Germany (1100%) and behind Poland (2200%). This isn't complicated. EU exports to Kyrgyzstan began booming in Mar '22. This stuff is going to Russia and must be stopped"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1745735506497802565)  2024-01-12T09:12Z 369.4K followers, 791.4K engagements


"Italy really just has to be the most beautiful country on earth"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1782113933530169733)  2024-04-21T18:27Z 369.4K followers, 5.9M engagements


"The rise in the Euro was always wrong. The EU is too scared to defend itself against an existential threat like Russia. Yet markets spent the last few months flirting with the idea that Euro is a reserve currency alternative to the Dollar Markets are finally getting over that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1950096718843838811)  2025-07-29T07:31Z 369.4K followers, 159.5K engagements


"The EU "Wall of Shame""  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1959306530370527347)  2025-08-23T17:27Z 369.4K followers, 898.5K engagements


"Japan has reached the end of the road. It's trapped between rising yields and a fiscal crisis or using the BoJ to keep artificially cap yields which will send the Yen into a depreciation spiral. Today's sharp fall in the Yen is a sign of things to come. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-end-of-the-road-for-japan https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-end-of-the-road-for-japan"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2001971825711153295)  2025-12-19T11:04Z 369.4K followers, 4.3M engagements


"The Japanese Yen (black) is now almost as weak as Turkish Lira (blue) the world's poster boy for chronic currency mismanagement. The Yen will keep falling as long as Japan stays in denial on its debt. Things will have to get worse before they get better. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/japans-yen-debasement https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/japans-yen-debasement"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2002311443052466450)  2025-12-20T09:33Z 369.4K followers, 598.2K engagements


"Mexico's single biggest problem is that it isn't able to grow. Real GDP was stagnant for several years before the pandemic. It looked - briefly - like Mexico might escape that stagnation trap after COVID. But here we are again. Mexico is back to the usual pattern of stagnation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2004927506634395941)  2025-12-27T14:49Z 369.4K followers, 435.4K engagements


"Good article in @FortuneMagazine on the debasement trade. This trade isn't just about precious metals. It's a flight to any kind of safe harbor from debt monetization. That's why currencies of low-debt countries like Swedish Krona are also outperforming. https://fortune.com/2025/12/26/silver-prices-gold-platinum-palladium-debt-fears-geopolitical-tensions-send-precious-metals-venezula-nigeria-strikes/ https://fortune.com/2025/12/26/silver-prices-gold-platinum-palladium-debt-fears-geopolitical-tensions-send-precious-metals-venezula-nigeria-strikes/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2005294864095998446)  2025-12-28T15:08Z 369.4K followers, 19.3K engagements


"The holding company that sits on top of Saks Fifth Avenue Bergdorf Goodman and Neiman Marcus just filed for bankruptcy. There's no end in sight for the implosion of US department stores. That business model is unfortunately terminally ill and will end. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-us-retail-apocalypse https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-us-retail-apocalypse"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2011428971670274403)  2026-01-14T13:23Z 369.4K followers, 13.6K engagements


"A weak Dollar doesn't threaten the Treasury market. A falling USD means foreign central banks will intervene to slow the rise in their currencies. That means they buy Treasuries which lowers yields. There's a good reason why Trump wants a falling Dollar. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/q-and-a-on-the-dollar-meltdown https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/q-and-a-on-the-dollar-meltdown"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2016582159742484796)  2026-01-28T18:40Z 369.4K followers, 252K engagements


"Japan's 10-year government bond yield is 2.3% (blue) but its 10y10y forward yield (orange) is already at 4.6%. That's what markets price for 10-year yield in [--] years' time and would make Japan's debt unsustainable. Japan is in a de facto debt crisis. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/debt-crisis-in-japan https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/debt-crisis-in-japan"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2018931090334032027)  2026-02-04T06:14Z 369.4K followers, 278.4K engagements


"Japan is trapped between preventing a fiscal crisis which requires JGB yield caps and Yen devaluation which will only stop if yields are allowed to rise freely. Only way out from this trap is for the gov't to sell financial assets and pay down debt. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/japans-fx-intervention-cant-and-wont-f5c https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/japans-fx-intervention-cant-and-wont-f5c"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2019255115769868620)  2026-02-05T03:41Z 369.4K followers, 102K engagements


"In [----] Erdogan kept Turkish Lira artificially strong until the May election. The day after he won Turkish Lira collapsed. It's depressing to see Japan to fall into this kind of thing. All the recent intervention talk has been cynical electioneering. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/five-charts-on-japan-ahead-of-the https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/five-charts-on-japan-ahead-of-the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2020096513020686465)  2026-02-07T11:25Z 369.4K followers, 122.6K engagements


"If Japan really wans to stop the Yen from falling what needs to be done is simple. The BoJ is currently buying [--] trillion in Japanese gov't bonds every month. That keeps yields artificially low and puts depreciation pressure on the Yen. That has to stop. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/five-charts-on-japan-ahead-of-the https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/five-charts-on-japan-ahead-of-the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2020381136963391709)  2026-02-08T06:16Z 369.4K followers, 111.5K engagements


"Big drop in the Dollar today which takes us almost all the way back down to where we were when Greenland was in the headlines during Davos. Yesterday's post flagged how weak the Dollar is looking and how we're heading for a 10% drop for all of [----]. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-dollar-is-starting-to-look-very https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-dollar-is-starting-to-look-very"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2020944846303920337)  2026-02-09T19:36Z 369.4K followers, 88.6K engagements


"Gold is back above $5000. The rally in precious metals is reckless and crazy but so is global fiscal policy. At some point over the past [--] years policy makers who believe in keeping public debt stable stopped existing. Makes sense to buy safe havens. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/does-fridays-crash-end-the-debasement https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/does-fridays-crash-end-the-debasement"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2020963545563705500)  2026-02-09T20:50Z 369.4K followers, 71K engagements


"US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil from Oct. '25 scared people off buying Russian oil. Urals oil price (black) is down sharply and Russia's oil tax revenues (blue) have collapsed. Now is the time for the EU to shut down the shadow fleet. A knock-out blow. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-eu-can-shut-down-russias-war https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-eu-can-shut-down-russias-war"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2021182540413882554)  2026-02-10T11:20Z 369.4K followers, 50.3K engagements


"Gold is back above $5000. The rise in gold is one manifestation of the debasement trade which is about markets seeking safe havens from debt monetization. Big thanks to @DavidWestin from @BloombergTV for all the right questions and a great discussion. https://www.youtube.com/watchv=PbI6HFU2lCc https://www.youtube.com/watchv=PbI6HFU2lCc"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2021201229624565955)  2026-02-10T12:34Z 369.4K followers, 25.5K engagements


"Greece is reportedly blocking the EU's 20th sanctions package. Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine Greece has on every occasion obstructed and caused the people of Ukraine immeasurable harm. Worst of all Greece helped Russia build the shadow fleet. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-does-the-eu-become-a-geopolitical https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-does-the-eu-become-a-geopolitical"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2021243411441873287)  2026-02-10T15:22Z 369.4K followers, 136.1K engagements


"@StavrosZenios These are just facts. The problem in the EU and the Euro zone is that countries like Greece don't pay a price for bad behavior. So it doesn't matter that Greece is de facto a client state for its rich shipping oligarchs. That has to change starting with ejection from the Euro"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2021317870462873751)  2026-02-10T20:18Z 369.4K followers, 11.8K engagements


"The EU is its own worst enemy in countering Russia's invasion of Ukraine. That's coming to a head again now with Greece's reported opposition to the 20th sanctions package. Greece's ship owners have a de facto veto over EU foreign policy. That can't stand. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/greek-oligarchs-helping-russian-oligarchs https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/greek-oligarchs-helping-russian-oligarchs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2021561207031759267)  2026-02-11T12:25Z 369.4K followers, 146K engagements


"Tepid response of the Dollar to a big upside surprise in payrolls. The whisper number for consensus was weak so this was a solid beat yet USD is barely able to rise. We're on our way to the correlation switch whereby strong US data weigh on the Dollar. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-dollar-is-starting-to-look-very https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-dollar-is-starting-to-look-very"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2021590399660269692)  2026-02-11T14:21Z 369.4K followers, 34.4K engagements


"Something big is going on with the Dollar. In the past decade strong data have pushed the Dollar up but that isn't what happened yesterday. We're going back to the regime that prevailed before whereby strong data push the Dollar down. Big regime change. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-dollar-is-starting-to-look-very https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-dollar-is-starting-to-look-very"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2021953486339158365)  2026-02-12T14:24Z 369.4K followers, 19.2K engagements


"The German word "Ohnmacht" means unconscious but literally translates as "without power." This is the EU. Greek shipping oligarchs sold countless ships to the shadow fleet and now they're trying to torpedo the 20th sanctions package. This cannot stand. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/greek-oligarchs-helping-russian-oligarchs https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/greek-oligarchs-helping-russian-oligarchs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2021955369397031116)  2026-02-12T14:31Z 369.4K followers, 16.3K engagements


"The Munich security conference is happening now. China's foreign minister will be there. It's important to remember that China is Putin's biggest enabler in his war on Ukraine. China's exports to Russia - counting everything (pink) - are up massively. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-russia-china-axis https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-russia-china-axis"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2022284906240295227)  2026-02-13T12:21Z 369.4K followers, 16K engagements


"The US the EU and the UK deserve huge credit for their combined onslaught of sanctions on Russia. The goal of these sanctions is to starve Russia of revenues which is happening. If Putin runs out of money the economy will collapse and the fighting ends. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-eu-can-shut-down-russias-war https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-eu-can-shut-down-russias-war"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2022287082287169900)  2026-02-13T12:29Z 369.4K followers, 31.6K engagements


"Make this Valentine's Day special by celebrating it in Frankfurt Europe's capital of romance. Photo courtesy of my friend @ChristianKopf who is probably one of the most romantic people in Frankfurt"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2022323769952419969)  2026-02-13T14:55Z 369.4K followers, 13.4K engagements


"@greg_ip I have a more positive take on today's data. You have to allow that there's a lot of start-of-year price resets going on right now and tariff passthrough also looks like it was quite high. Considering these two things I think this CPI qualifies as benign"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2022462414797836782)  2026-02-14T00:06Z 369.4K followers, [----] engagements


"Great piece by @katie_martin_fx in the @FT on the correlation break happening for the Dollar. As Trump leans more and more on the Fed positive data surprises like payrolls no longer lift USD. The US will boom this year. But USD will fall. https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/228b03a2-9502-43b6-9f77-11a6e9872c80 https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/228b03a2-9502-43b6-9f77-11a6e9872c80"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2022648917620330879)  2026-02-14T12:27Z 369.4K followers, [----] engagements


"@SeanBrodrick Yes I'm definitely in the Dollar weakening camp since the start of this year. My post from January [--] rolled out my predictions and Dollar down is the key one for this year. I don't think the Dollar goes into a death spiral but it can fall 10% easily. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2026 https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2026"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2022649892624269782)  2026-02-14T12:31Z 369.4K followers, [---] engagements


"The best leading indicator for where the Dollar is headed is how it trades versus EM. The Dollar versus EM (black) started falling after the Fed's last rate cut on Dec. [--] and has been making new lows ever since. [----] will be the year of Dollar debasement. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-dollar-is-starting-to-look-very https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-dollar-is-starting-to-look-very"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2022658526296854566)  2026-02-14T13:05Z 369.4K followers, 15.5K engagements


"The Yen will keep falling in trade weighted terms in [----] and make new lows. Two reasons: (i) Japan remains in denial on the scale of its debt and what's needed to fix this; (ii) the Yen will be falling against a Dollar that's falling too. Double whammy. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/five-charts-on-japan-ahead-of-the https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/five-charts-on-japan-ahead-of-the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2022661017445286137)  2026-02-14T13:15Z 369.4K followers, 52.6K engagements


"@JorgeCalderonMx Sounds extreme but a good chunk of the FOMC is already flirting with the idea that we're in a low inflation high productivity equilibrium where the neutral rate is lower than it might have been in the past. I think you can build a consensus around that narrative"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2022696666227515597)  2026-02-14T15:37Z 369.4K followers, [----] engagements


"Japan has reached the end of the road. The BoJ can intervene to brings yields back down but that means printing money that will exacerbate Yen depreciation. If the BoJ suppresses the fiscal risk premium in the bond market it'll just come out in the Yen. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-end-of-the-road-for-japan https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-end-of-the-road-for-japan"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2013616542353653997)  2026-01-20T14:16Z 369.4K followers, 1.7M engagements


"The Euro must end. Poland doesn't want to join so we're left taking places like Bulgaria where it's totally unclear if the country is actually aligned with Western Europe. Just look at Bulgaria's imports from China which are going through the roof. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/why-euro-breakup-is-necessary https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/why-euro-breakup-is-necessary"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2020118825073508688)  2026-02-07T12:53Z 369.4K followers, 252.9K engagements


"China survived last year's US tariff onslaught but there's nothing brilliant or heroic about how it did that. It simply flooded the rest of the world with an endless stream of discounted goods. Chinese mercantilism just turned away from the US to others. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-not-to-negotiate-with-china https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-not-to-negotiate-with-china"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2020122077781430442)  2026-02-07T13:06Z 369.4K followers, 161K engagements


"Congratulations to Prime Minister Takaichi. It's now up to her whether Japan has a UK-style fiscal crisis which Liz Truss caused in [----] by ignoring the UK's severe fiscal constraints a mistake that still haunts the UK. Japan would do well to avoid that. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/five-charts-on-japan-ahead-of-the https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/five-charts-on-japan-ahead-of-the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2020832926108406073)  2026-02-09T12:11Z 369.4K followers, 100.1K engagements


"The Dollar yesterday made a new low against EM (black) the best leading indicator for Dollar direction. This on a day when payrolls surprised on the upside and 2-year yield jumped. We're seeing a regime change for the Dollar. Strong data mean it weakens. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/regime-change-for-the-dollar https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/regime-change-for-the-dollar"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2021950173203902729)  2026-02-12T14:11Z 369.4K followers, 19.5K engagements


"Labor force participation across different segments of the US population is historically high and rising. People are crowding into the labor market not leaving it. This just doesn't look like an economy that's rolling over and going into recession. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/does-the-us-labor-market-signal-recession https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/does-the-us-labor-market-signal-recession"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2022279835578433868)  2026-02-13T12:00Z 369.4K followers, [----] engagements


"One constant in the Trump administration is that - when the Treasury market wobbles - it backs down. That happened on China in Apr. '25 and again on Greenland recently. 10y10y forward yield remains near its highs even as 10y falls. A Trump risk premium. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/do-markets-price-a-trump-risk-premium https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/do-markets-price-a-trump-risk-premium"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2022295760734146842)  2026-02-13T13:04Z 369.4K followers, [----] engagements


"The 2-year Treasury yield (blue) fell sharply at 8:30 am today a sign markets think today's CPI was benign and so the Fed cuts more. Bloomberg's XAU/$ gold price (white) rose around the same time which is consistent with that signal. Lower rates are good for precious metals"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2022465522617438708)  2026-02-14T00:18Z 369.4K followers, 18.2K engagements


"A lot of economic commentary is inflected by anti-Trump sentiment. That's why so many forecast the Dollar would go into a death spiral last year (it didn't) & why there's so much focus on inflation overheating now (it isn't). Yesterday's CPI was benign. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/inflation-is-not-overheating https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/inflation-is-not-overheating"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2022644527513964874)  2026-02-14T12:10Z 369.4K followers, 22.6K engagements


"Since China is busy portraying itself as a friend of Europe at the Munich Security Conference here's a quick reminder what China actually does. Its exports to Russia's satellite states have gone through the roof. These are transshipments going to Moscow. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-russia-china-axis https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-russia-china-axis"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2022709193564627190)  2026-02-14T16:27Z 369.4K followers, 36K engagements


"@chaabanisaid90 Any western development aid to India should be cut as a result"  
[X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2022709363350110703)  2026-02-14T16:27Z 369.4K followers, [----] engagements

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