[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.] #  @robin_j_brooks Robin Brooks The global economy is experiencing a "debasement trade" where investors are seeking safe-haven assets due to concerns over high debt levels and policy chaos. This trend is driving up the value of certain currencies, such as the Swedish krona, and assets like gold, although the recent precious metals rally has paused. The trade is also characterized by a shift away from fiat currencies and towards safe-haven assets, with some experts warning of a potential crisis in countries with high debt levels. ### Engagements: XXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::888118103095115780/interactions)  - X Week XXXXXXX -XX% - X Month XXXXXXXXX -XX% - X Months XXXXXXXXXX +26% - X Year XXXXXXXXXX -XX% ### Mentions: XX [#](/creator/twitter::888118103095115780/posts_active)  - X Week XXX -XXXX% - X Month XXX -XXXX% - X Months XXXXX +52% - X Year XXXXX +0.40% ### Followers: XXXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::888118103095115780/followers)  - X Week XXXXXXX +0.09% - X Month XXXXXXX +0.50% - X Months XXXXXXX +3.90% - X Year XXXXXXX +9.80% ### CreatorRank: XXXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::888118103095115780/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [countries](/list/countries) XXXXX% [finance](/list/finance) #6372 [currencies](/list/currencies) #2138 [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations) XXXX% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) XXXX% [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) XXXX% **Social topic influence** [euro](/topic/euro) #264, [debt](/topic/debt) #501, [italy](/topic/italy) #560, [ukraine](/topic/ukraine) #531, [germany](/topic/germany) #827, [china](/topic/china) #1108, [countries](/topic/countries) #1241, [japan](/topic/japan) #2071, [spain](/topic/spain) #436, [russia](/topic/russia) #768 **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@startedbetter](/creator/undefined) [@ilvestoomas](/creator/undefined) [@zhanghao869179](/creator/undefined) [@why__knot](/creator/undefined) [@doripenem666](/creator/undefined) [@ericfine123](/creator/undefined) [@william_r2rclub](/creator/undefined) [@brookingsinst](/creator/undefined) [@graphcall](/creator/undefined) [@alonkritzman](/creator/undefined) [@jtreble_deriv](/creator/undefined) [@eduardoguedesc2](/creator/undefined) [@battleforeurope](/creator/undefined) [@econharris](/creator/undefined) [@hannolustig](/creator/undefined) [@untouchable0815](/creator/undefined) [@chengweichin1](/creator/undefined) [@joequant](/creator/undefined) [@jochen_roeder](/creator/undefined) [@quirinobiscaro](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/bitcoin) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours "TARGET2 balances are unconditional and indefinite balance of payments support. In EM the equivalent is IMF programs which mandate reforms. Not so in the Euro zone where TARGET2 perpetuates bad economic and political equilibria in high-debt countries" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1971542774043533731) 2025-09-26T11:50Z 355.6K followers, 76.3K engagements "@sichuan01 @vincenzosciarr3 Does that factor in the cost of producing batteries and such So the full start to finish life cycle of an EV versus ICE" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1997365658556772687) 2025-12-06T18:00Z 355.7K followers, 1901 engagements "Immigration in Germany is a "stock" and a "flow" issue. The new government has done lots to address the "flow" problem. But the rise in the AfD is about the "stock." The political center isn't addressing this with the speed and determination that's needed. So AfD keeps growing" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1995143949145772217) 2025-11-30T14:52Z 355.7K followers, 56.2K engagements "Russias frozen reserves expose an EU governance crisis. Just recall how Greece undercut the G7 price cap on behalf of its shipping oligarchs. Belgiums veto now is more of the same. The EU cant be a geopolitical power if its always busy herding cats" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1997648692333928752) 2025-12-07T12:45Z 355.7K followers, 27.4K engagements "Congrats to all the EU patriots for posting this flag today. A reminder that the EU remains deadlocked on Russia's frozen FX reserves ignores rampant transshipments and allows Greece to keep selling oil tankers to the shadow fleet. Easier to post a flag than doing stuff I guess" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1997829781111673187) 2025-12-08T00:45Z 355.7K followers, 107.8K engagements "The German word "Schandfleck" translates roughly as "stain of shame." That's what German exports to Central Asia and the Caucasus are. These exports rose sharply right after Russia invaded Ukraine and are obviously heading to Moscow. This is widely known yet nothing is done" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1753791958395310148) 2024-02-03T14:46Z 355.6K followers, 93.1K engagements "June was a bad month for LatAm. Mexican Peso did worst at -XXX% followed by Colombian Peso (-6.9%) and Brazilian Real (-6.0%). In Brazil lots of blame is directed at Lula but that's just political hackery. Much (not all) of recent Real weakness is about LatAm getting clobbered" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1807801827443835095) 2024-07-01T15:41Z 355.6K followers, 71.3K engagements "Price action since Friday offers a good lens on where the Yen carry trade is concentrated. EM currencies that have been most hit are the Mexican Peso and Colombian Peso both of which have been known to harbor lots of carry trades. South Africa and Turkey are also getting hit" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1820469916912566755) 2024-08-05T14:40Z 355.6K followers, 27.8K engagements "Great piece on Argentina by @grobb2000 at @MarketWatch. Argentina stands alone in Latin America in - again and again - pegging its currency to the Dollar. The rest of the region floats their currencies which is what Argentina needs to do" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1970462414219907442) 2025-09-23T12:17Z 355.6K followers, 33.9K engagements "The Swedish Krona (red) is emerging as a key safe haven currency in the debasement trade. It's been chronically undervalued for over a decade and the country is well managed with low debt. The Euro (pink) is failing to benefit as is the Yen. Both have serious debt dysfunction" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1983144242072502393) 2025-10-28T12:10Z 355.6K followers, 11.2K engagements "The debasement trade lives. You can see that in how markets trade currencies. Low-debt currencies are rising against USD - led by Swedish Krona (red) - while high-debt ones like Euro (pink) or Yen (blue) are lagging. The desperate scramble for safe havens" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1983474002665611764) 2025-10-29T10:00Z 355.6K followers, 21.8K engagements "The end of the Euro will see the periphery devalue. The sovereign debt crisis a decade ago was a "sudden stop" in capital flows. In EM those cause currencies to fall XX% (lhs) which brings recovery (rhs). Devaluation sounds scary but it'll bring growth" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1986026433555145111) 2025-11-05T11:02Z 355.6K followers, 45.2K engagements "Sweden's gov't debt is XX% of GDP. Switzerland's is 38%. These are the new safe havens markets are flocking to in the global debt overhang and debasement trade. Both countries have yields way below their G10 peers when hedged back into the same currency" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1988235054829482419) 2025-11-11T13:19Z 355.6K followers, 67.2K engagements "@GoranHjelm It's great to see Sweden reap the benefits of prudent fiscal policy. Sweden is these days able to issue debt far below its G10 peers once you hedge foreign yields back into Swedish Krona. Markets are giving recognition to Sweden for getting debt right" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1988262391872651464) 2025-11-11T15:07Z 355.6K followers, XXX engagements "@borghi_claudio A break-up of the Euro would mean a huge devaluation for Italy and a debt crisis. What would follow with high probability is a debt write-down that would wipe out the retirement savings of millions of Italians. Wouldn't a few reforms be a better choice" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1988269489914356210) 2025-11-11T15:36Z 355.6K followers, 13.8K engagements "The end of the US government shutdown is sparking another crazy rally in safe haven assets. That's true for all precious metals (lhs) but it's also true in currency space (rhs). Swedish Krona (red) is outperforming again due to Sweden's very low government debt level" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1988954486090657905) 2025-11-13T12:57Z 355.6K followers, 14.4K engagements "Turkey is deeply divided: a secular elite on the coasts and a very religious conservative population in the interior. The way Erdogan keeps winning elections is by using one credit boom after another to artificially boost growth. That's unsustainable" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1989675964033646950) 2025-11-15T12:44Z 355.6K followers, 302.7K engagements "@escutarian Every country has a speed limit to growth. If you push above that speed limit other things start to break. In Turkey's case artificially high growth has caused a cycle of devaluation in Turkish Lira because growth widened the current account deficit to unsustainable levels" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1990050491515244836) 2025-11-16T13:33Z 355.7K followers, 7399 engagements "@greg_ip In addition to the negative growth effect on the rest of the world this is also a deflationary shock for the world. China is basically exporting some of the adverse hit from US tariffs on its economy to the rest of the world" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1990403397082607785) 2025-11-17T12:55Z 355.6K followers, 8390 engagements "Huge churn in markets right now. The S&P XXX (red) is falling as markets tire of the AI bubble but what's really getting clobbered is bitcoin (orange) which is down almost XX% since Jackson Hole which sparked the gold rally (black) and should have been good for bitcoin" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1991675185498583114) 2025-11-21T01:09Z 355.6K followers, 25.6K engagements "This is where the "debasement trade" comes from. Japan's debt at XXX% of GDP leaves no good options. If Japan stabilizes the Yen by allowing yields to rise there's a fiscal crisis. If it keeps rates low the Yen goes back into a devaluation spiral. Too much debt is a killer" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1991679257148551455) 2025-11-21T01:25Z 355.7K followers, 222.7K engagements "@ChristophH56523 The point I'm making is that Italy's 10-year yield would be MUCH higher if Germany put its foot down at the ECB and forced it to stop providing fiscal assistance to high-debt countries. The result would be a sharp fall in stock prices across all banks on the periphery" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1992175638719897696) 2025-11-22T10:17Z 355.6K followers, 1366 engagements "@hic_somnia Totally agree on your point on banking consolidation in Europe. But that can't happen while financial markets are distorted because high-debt countries get a subsidy from the ECB which causes their financial sector to be artificially inflated. That makes no sense" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1992213498131104082) 2025-11-22T12:48Z 355.6K followers, 1061 engagements "@aledenicola Yes that is a nice way of putting it. You can't on one hand argue for yield caps and then insist that banking union requires an artificially inflated balance sheet like Unicredit to be allowed to take over Commerzbank. This nonsense all starts and ends with ECB yield caps" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1992218197526020289) 2025-11-22T13:06Z 355.6K followers, 1951 engagements "@emmevilla Do you have any substantive pushback or just nationalistic chest pounding" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1992314961910190408) 2025-11-22T19:31Z 355.6K followers, 7198 engagements "The "debasement trade" since Jackson Hole on Aug XX is panicked buying of any asset that might be a safe haven from debt debasement. Bitcoin was billed as the ultimate fiat debasement hedge but it's down XX% since Jackson Hole. Bitcoin is no safe haven" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1992877756422725652) 2025-11-24T08:47Z 355.6K followers, 16.7K engagements "My post that Germany must exit the Euro was greeted with the predictable accusation that I'm anti-European. No. The EU is a bystander on Ukraine when it should lead. Much of the blame goes to Italy and Spain for their endless debt shenanigans. Enough" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1992880712287187450) 2025-11-24T08:59Z 355.7K followers, 147K engagements "Without a doubt Lufthansa is the worlds best airline. Just please dont make the rookie mistake of smiling while on board" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1992902293176361004) 2025-11-24T10:25Z 355.7K followers, 44.3K engagements "The US announced Rosneft and Lukoil sanctions on Oct XX. Those only went into effect Nov XX but it looks like they scared off Greek oil tankers well ahead of going into effect. This will be pushing down Urals oil price versus Brent and hurting Russia" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1994386841894604894) 2025-11-28T12:44Z 355.6K followers, 32.9K engagements "I get a lot of pushback on whether the debasement trade is real or not. I think most of those points miss the forest for the trees. You just have to look at what's going on with precious metals to know something highly unusual - and worrying - is going on" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1994747679046602765) 2025-11-29T12:38Z 355.6K followers, 22.2K engagements "Greece and its shipping oligarchs - to which the government is beholden - have done huge damage to the safety of the EU. I'd love to see the EU sanction just one Greek shipping oligarch. That would stop Greek ships from transporting Russian oil overnight" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1994751923895812581) 2025-11-29T12:54Z 355.6K followers, 28.4K engagements "A regime change is happening in global FX. Currencies that used to be cyclical and volatile are becoming safe havens as markets seek out countries with low debt. That's the Swedish Krona which now has a higher correlation with gold than Swiss Franc" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1995105246566101358) 2025-11-30T12:18Z 355.7K followers, 69.6K engagements "High public debt isn't inevitable or preordained. But it does require good governance and a central bank that doesn't shield countries from negative consequences of bad fiscal policy. Northern Europe has that in spades and shows the way for the Euro zone" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1995108274278936983) 2025-11-30T12:30Z 355.6K followers, 13.9K engagements "@JaderMarquezz So I don't actually think Nazi parallels are accurate. I don't for example think that right-wing extremism was just taking a slumber and is now awakening. For most Germans this is about dissatisfaction with immigration. That just needs to be addressed forcefully and quickly" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1995139142943232154) 2025-11-30T14:33Z 355.6K followers, 12.4K engagements "@Danjsalt For sure. Switzerland has struggled with this for well over a decade as lots of high-end Euro zone money has sought protection there. But through all of that the Swiss Franc has also kept appreciating. There's only so much a small open economy can do in the face of big inflows" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1995196522569556105) 2025-11-30T18:21Z 355.6K followers, 1358 engagements "@HannoLustig The fixation on rate hikes by the BoJ drives me bonkers. The long end of the yield curve is what matters for financial conditions - just like everywhere else - and here the BoJ remains a big buyer in gross terms. What happens with the policy rate is a side show" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1995296348762247446) 2025-12-01T00:58Z 355.7K followers, 27.3K engagements "In 2019 @davidfrum wrote a prescient article on the US with the title: "If liberals don't enforce borders fascists will." Unfortunately that's as true for Germany as it is for the US. The political center in Germany is paralyzed as the AfD keeps rising" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1995486275546067197) 2025-12-01T13:32Z 355.6K followers, 22.3K engagements "Weird stuff is happening in global markets. Precious metals are in a crazy rally since the Fed signaled resumption of cuts this summer. Japans at the forefront of this debasement trade. I discussed this with @cherykang on @CNBC yesterday" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1995865553454457252) 2025-12-02T14:40Z 355.6K followers, 12.3K engagements "Russia's tax revenues from oil fell almost XX% in Nov '25 as US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil scared away Western buyers pushing down Urals oil price versus Brent. Oil is Putin's Achilles heel and is the way to bring Russia to the negotiating table. @econ_harris @BrookingsInst" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1996214964319633754) 2025-12-03T13:48Z 355.6K followers, 26.7K engagements "Where is fiscal distress greatest Chart shows 10-year yield on the horizontal axis and 10y20y forward yield on the vertical i.e. what markets price for 10-year yield in XX years. The bigger the vertical gap the bigger is distress. In descending order: Japan France Italy" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1996634996665352572) 2025-12-04T17:37Z 355.6K followers, 13.4K engagements "The German verb "entgleiten" means "to slip out of control." That's what Germany feels like currently. This isn't about Trump China or anything external. It's about a political center that turned on itself and is busy name calling instead of fixing stuff" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1996930929424511179) 2025-12-05T13:13Z 355.6K followers, 37.3K engagements "@Kasparov63 Unfortunately there's plenty of European countries that are withholding aid too. Spain and Italy are at the top of the list. I hear arguments like "this isn't our war" or "we're a long way away from Ukraine" to justify this. This might be even worse given this is a European war" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1997324050683593110) 2025-12-06T15:15Z 355.6K followers, 2437 engagements "@kellychen_macro These data are from China's national statistics bureau. They clearly have every incentive to make things look better than they really are so - if anything - I'd guess these data probably overstate the "green" element of electricity generation" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1997654348076032351) 2025-12-07T13:08Z 355.6K followers, 1171 engagements "@Angela3v999 The Euro is just a system of exchange rate pegs. So its only true advantage is that it eliminates nominal exchange rate volatility and companies know how to hedge that at low cost very well. The Euro is the reason Spain and Italy give no money to Ukraine. Not good enough" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1997731563128467466) 2025-12-07T18:14Z 355.6K followers, 1320 engagements "Brazil is on track to become the Switzerland of Latin America. A huge trade surplus is emerging unlike any other country in the region. This is going to give Brazil external stability and a strong currency unlike the rest of Latin America. Brazil will be the region's anchor" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1661793738715176960) 2023-05-25T17:57Z 355.6K followers, 3.2M engagements "@CarlosRamirezF What's happening with Mexican Peso is scary. The Peso has risen so much in real effective terms that it's causing a big deterioration in Mexico's underlying current account balance. Add to that what might happen if Trump wins in November and I think the Peso is very vulnerable" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1769429457578635550) 2024-03-17T18:23Z 355.6K followers, 1.5M engagements "The world's top X cities of the future X. Frankfurt X. Stockholm X. Toronto X. New York X. Tokyo" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1982476621438464359) 2025-10-26T15:57Z 355.6K followers, 830.7K engagements "The precious metals bubble is clearly bursting. The catalyst for this was the IMF/WB meetings X weeks ago as I flagged in my post during the meetings. This is Dollar positive because - underneath all this - people are going back to US exceptionalism" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1983145697013580261) 2025-10-28T12:15Z 355.7K followers, 285.8K engagements "In March 2021 Erdogan fired the head of the central bank. What followed were rate cuts - while every other central bank in the world was hiking - and immolation of the Turkish Lira. Turkey is still trying to dig itself out from that terrible policy error" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1990043800199471541) 2025-11-16T13:06Z 355.7K followers, 105.7K engagements "Japan's Yen in real effective terms (black) is almost as weak as Turkish Lira (blue) which is the world's weakest currency after Erdogan eviscerated his central bank. Japan is in denial on debt. Sanae Takaichi's fiscal stimulus only makes this worse" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1991828124066349385) 2025-11-21T11:16Z 355.7K followers, 867.2K engagements "The Unicredit bid for Commerzbank is wrong. Germany allows the ECB to cap Italy's yield which artificially inflates Italy's banking sector. When Germany then isn't enthusiastic about the Unicredit bid it's accused of undermining banking union. Madness" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1992169938467844208) 2025-11-22T09:55Z 355.6K followers, 98.3K engagements "Japan is in denial on debt. It's 10-year gov't bond yield is only XXX% (blue) which looks ok but that same yield 10-years forward is XXX% (orange) and 20-years forward is XXX% (red). The only certainty for Japan is that it'll have either a debt crisis or a currency crisis" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1992174173373042940) 2025-11-22T10:11Z 355.7K followers, 368.5K engagements "Japan has huge gov't debt but low long-term yields. Here's the thing. High debt is real. Low long-term yields are not. They're pretend. BoJ caps yields with ongoing bond buying. Without this yields would be far higher and Japan would be in a debt crisis" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1992527174843412793) 2025-11-23T09:34Z 355.7K followers, 166.9K engagements "The Japanese Yen (black) in real effective terms is as weak as Turkish Lira (blue). That should be all the warning that's needed for Japan's policy leaders that something is very badly wrong. But are they listening No. They're doing more debt stimulus" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1992883076897423368) 2025-11-24T09:08Z 355.7K followers, 68.2K engagements "I got many requests to post an update of these charts that compare 10-year gov't bond yields (blue) with 10y20y forward yields (red). We're in a slow-moving global debt crisis with lots of idiosyncratic trouble spots: Japan the UK France Italy & Spain" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1993272492484428132) 2025-11-25T10:56Z 355.7K followers, 67K engagements "We now have a perverse situation in the EU where Finland - which is spending lots of money to support Ukraine - gets put in the excess deficit procedure while Italy - which gives very little support to Ukraine - is about to exit. This makes NO sense" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1994019133852160314) 2025-11-27T12:23Z 355.6K followers, 133.5K engagements "@adonataccio You can do this kind of thing but the next time you demand solidarity (which Italy demands regularly) people will remember" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1994067290174771557) 2025-11-27T15:34Z 355.6K followers, 183.2K engagements "Fed easing cycles sometimes coincide with recession and sometimes they don't. When the latter happens the S&P XXX sees massive gains because financial conditions end up being far too loose. That's where we are now in my opinion. This is bullish S&P 500" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1994742853046571064) 2025-11-29T12:18Z 355.6K followers, 65.1K engagements "The Euro is a wonderful thing but it's also become a vehicle for high-debt countries to pretend everything is fine when it isn't. High debt is why Spain and Italy give so little support to Ukraine. This all starts and ends with the ECB. Time for change" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1994745889169272957) 2025-11-29T12:30Z 355.6K followers, 46.3K engagements "There's only one question for Germany: what policies will stop the inexorable rise of the AfD which is heading for XX% in the polls. This will literally tip Europe if it continues. Germany with AfD in government won't stand up to Russia. And it also won't stick with the Euro" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1994756669235236930) 2025-11-29T13:13Z 355.7K followers, 1.3M engagements "@TheGoBetween32 Ordinarily I'd agree. But AfD is up from XXXX% in the February election to XX% in the latest polls. That's a big rise and an indicator how unpopular the current political establishment is. And as Germany struggles economically the Euro will inevitably be called into question" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1994783438059311569) 2025-11-29T15:00Z 355.6K followers, 44.6K engagements "Germany is in a really tough spot. That's not about de-industrialization or China or whatever. It's about a grand coalition in which the SPD has disproportionate power which in turn reflects efforts to keep AfD out of power. I'm hugely against the AfD but this is NOT working" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1995129074302189641) 2025-11-30T13:53Z 355.6K followers, 33.6K engagements "In the X months since the election AfD has become Germany's most popular party. This massive surge is a political earthquake for Europe. Will a Germany with AfD in power defend the Baltics or Poland if Russia attacks Will it take Germany out of the Euro" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1995457859039957010) 2025-12-01T11:40Z 355.6K followers, 103.5K engagements "Core inflation in each of the G-4 has settled well above its pre-COVID equilibrium and in most cases is above the X% target. That's not about supply shocks but about demand and a global economy that's running hot. No wonder we have the "debasement trade."" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1995831198107795710) 2025-12-02T12:23Z 355.6K followers, 29.2K engagements "Japan is in a terrible spot. High debt means it's constantly having to choose between a falling Yen and allowing interest rates to rise. The BoJ this week chose the latter and is signaling a December rate hike. Long-term yields like 10y20y forward (red) are back to August highs" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1995837350409351183) 2025-12-02T12:47Z 355.7K followers, 230.1K engagements "Central banks are massively distorting government bond yields. That's worst in the Euro zone because of ECB yield caps. The result is that Italy is the only G7 economy where the long-term 10y20y forward yield is down this year. I mean we all love Italy but this is ridiculous" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1995920541241229367) 2025-12-02T18:18Z 355.7K followers, 58.8K engagements "The ECB had no problem capping govt bond yields of Italy and Spain in 2022 which was well outside its mandate. But it now says it cant help with Russias frozen FX reserves due to its mandate even as Italy and Spain give no aid to Ukraine. What a mess" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1995924332523258142) 2025-12-02T18:33Z 355.6K followers, 29.8K engagements "One puzzle this year is that US Treasury yields have fallen despite out-of-control fiscal policy and erratic policies. One theory is that this is because the private sector is deleveraging. I don't think that's why. The US is still the best of a bad bunch" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1996196332789490043) 2025-12-03T12:34Z 355.6K followers, 13.2K engagements "Germany is facing a political apocalypse. This past weekend saw violent protests against the AfD in Gieen which will only feed the view among many Germans that the country is descending into lawlessness. The AfD will likely get another bump in the polls" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1996305797916025109) 2025-12-03T19:49Z 355.7K followers, 63K engagements "I wrote about bond market vigilantes driving up long yields (red) back in September. Japan with its huge overhang of gov't debt is at the forefront of this. Its 10-year JGB yield is XXX% but its 10-year yield XX years forward is 4.5%. Crisis territory" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1996310009290875263) 2025-12-03T20:06Z 355.7K followers, 39.1K engagements "@HannoLustig Great posts There's X "trades:" (i) the basis trade; (ii) the swap spread trade. Both are long cash Treasuries. The former is short futures the latter shorts the fixed rate leg in an interest rate swap. The former blew up in Mar '20. The latter in Apr '25. Both are dangerous" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1996384664454578303) 2025-12-04T01:02Z 355.6K followers, 4733 engagements "I started flagging a scary rise in yields on long-term gov't debt back in September. Since then this issue has only gotten worse since Fed rate cuts have driven short-term yields down but long-term yields haven't fallen. The bond vigilantes are here" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1996575970044617159) 2025-12-04T13:43Z 355.7K followers, 55.9K engagements "Japan's long-term yields are rising but here's the thing: they're still much too low and need to rise a lot more. Easiest way to see that is in the chart below which shows that Japan's 30-year yield is the same as Germany which has way lower debt" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1996621899707949062) 2025-12-04T16:45Z 355.7K followers, 74.5K engagements "Germany is no longer a safe haven. Best way to see that is chart below which shows central bank rate cuts (-) on the horizontal axis and rise in 30-year yield (+) on the vertical. Switzerland (CH) gets safe haven inflows that Germany (DE) no longer gets" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1996917917561352429) 2025-12-05T12:21Z 355.7K followers, 26.7K engagements "10-year yields are a vanity project for governments. A lot of effort goes into keeping those low. So - if you want to get a sense of fiscal stress - it's better to look at the long end of the curve. That looks most distressed for Japan France and Italy" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1996937370008985944) 2025-12-05T13:39Z 355.7K followers, 32.3K engagements "What's the best bond market measure of fiscal distress In my view it's the difference between 10-year yield (blue) and 10y20y forward (red) yield. If the latter is way higher markets are pricing big risk premia. That's true for Japan France and Italy" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1996987690365898983) 2025-12-05T16:59Z 355.7K followers, 33.2K engagements "Earlier this year there were lots of prognostications that the Dollar is going into a multi-year decline. That hasn't played out and it's worth thinking about why. The fact that the Dollar isn't falling is about a lack of alternatives. The Euro in particular is falling short" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1997283297278451900) 2025-12-06T12:33Z 355.7K followers, 10.2K engagements "Sometimes the sum of the parts isn't worth much. That's true for the Euro. The Euro zone desperately needs fiscal space to counter threats like Russia and China. Without the Euro the EU will be stronger and have more fiscal space. Time to stop pretending" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1997286980070343123) 2025-12-06T12:48Z 355.7K followers, 9157 engagements "Greece's shipping oligarchs continue to sell oil tankers to Putin's shadow fleet every day. It's this shadow fleet (gray) that funds Russia's war in Ukraine. How can the EU expect to be taken seriously if it turns a blind eye to this A massive failure" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1997289441497596039) 2025-12-06T12:58Z 355.7K followers, 30.6K engagements "Amid all the chaos of US policy this year the Euro failed to make ANY gains in reserve managers allocations because the EU is seen as weak and indecisive. Seizing Russias FX reserves would boost the Euro not weaken it as this @FT piece says" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1997317308415344914) 2025-12-06T14:48Z 355.7K followers, 10.4K engagements "Amid the chaos of US tariffs in Q2 '25 Euro failed to make headway in the IMF COFER reserve manager survey (blue). To gain standing as reserve currency you must be willing to project geopolitical power by doing things like seizing Russia's FX reserves" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1997322972890124483) 2025-12-06T15:11Z 355.7K followers, 8892 engagements "Can someone please explain to me the excitement over China's electrification China set up a lot of power lines but XX% of electricity generation is still from fossil fuels (blue). What matters is how electricity gets generated & whether you're self-sufficient. Not power lines" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1997351102954586128) 2025-12-06T17:03Z 355.7K followers, 131.3K engagements "Lots of people are going on about cheap electricity in China and how this will allow it to win the AI race with the US. Here's the thing about that electricity: it's from burning fossil fuels like coal with huge CO2 emissions. There is no "green" China" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1997644297697374586) 2025-12-07T12:28Z 355.7K followers, 85.6K engagements "Beijing's bots want you to think that China won the tariff war. That's nonsense. The way China kept its exports going in the face of US tariffs is by cutting the prices on the goods it exports. That's bad for exporters and a deflationary shock for China" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1997653446862790725) 2025-12-07T13:04Z 355.7K followers, 138.8K engagements "We're in a global war for AI dominance. China doesn't have the edge in chips but - as a ruthless dictatorship that doesn't care about the environment - it can build lots and lots of coal-fired powerplants (blue) to make electricity as cheap as possible" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1997696991527346635) 2025-12-07T15:57Z 355.7K followers, 24.3K engagements "EU enlargement has been a disaster. You can't become a geopolitical force if you admit Russian satellite states like Hungary. This mistake is now getting compounded by admitting Bulgaria to the Euro. Bulgaria has well-known erosion of democracy and corruption. What are we doing" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1997706230484349299) 2025-12-07T16:34Z 355.7K followers, 28K engagements "I'm a proud European. It must be clear to everyone at this point that Europe isn't working. We should openly debate what's holding us back and fix it. We should NOT hush up what isn't working. That only perpetuates what makes us weak on the global stage" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1997712514046702041) 2025-12-07T16:59Z 355.7K followers, 62.2K engagements "The EU is an amazing thing and a force for good. But Russia's invasion of Ukraine laid bare that some things are badly broken. We should openly debate these things including the future of the Euro. Hushing things up is the road to European irrelevance" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1997720925303984621) 2025-12-07T17:32Z 355.7K followers, 14.4K engagements "It's fashionable to post the EU flag today. That worries me. Better to reflect on what led us here and have a sober debate on how Europe can again become relevant on the global stage. Because we are NOT relevant. No amount of flag posting changes that" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1997739144152510887) 2025-12-07T18:45Z 355.7K followers, 41.9K engagements "China wants to dominate global EVs. Euro zone imports of Chinese cars are up to XXX% of total car imports in Aug '25 up from XXX% in 2019. Belgium is up to 22%. Spain at XX% Italy at XX% and Poland at 10%. All up from basically zero a few years ago" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1998013261908750459) 2025-12-08T12:54Z 355.7K followers, 77.5K engagements "At one point in 2024 Brazil was importing XX% of its motor vehicles from China. That's down to XX% in the latest data but what should be clear to everyone is that China is rolling up the global car market aggressively and the frontlines of that battle are in emerging markets" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1998017732831309837) 2025-12-08T13:12Z 355.7K followers, 46K engagements "@IlvesToomas This isn't about bashing Europe. We Europeans - I am one too - have a victim mentality. We keep looking to the US to protect us. We need to stand on our own two feet and get our act together. So stop doing vacuous nonsense like posting flags and actually make the EU stronger" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1998045800463741112) 2025-12-08T15:03Z 355.7K followers, 28.2K engagements "@eucopresident Posted without comment: The EU Wall of Shame" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1998054406386835755) 2025-12-08T15:37Z 355.7K followers, 4454 engagements "@IlvesToomas Look you can either have an emotional reaction or you calmly examine how the EU got itself in a place where the US feels empowered to treat the EU in this way. The latter is the way forward. Just look at the massive flood of EU transshipments to Russia. There is a lot to fix" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1998054963952472334) 2025-12-08T15:40Z 355.7K followers, 1999 engagements "China's massive surge in auto exports isn't about advanced economies (blue). It's primarily about emerging and frontier markets (red). This is where the battle for dominance in global autos is now being fought and where auto producers in Europe and Japan have the most to lose" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1998057691235672274) 2025-12-08T15:50Z 355.7K followers, 41.2K engagements "@nicogoncas The reason the US talks to the EU this way is because of this: negligible aid from Spain for Ukraine" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1998061175880450214) 2025-12-08T16:04Z 355.7K followers, 2936 engagements "@EU_Made_Simple Yes. They just don't want to pay for it" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1998061355929350637) 2025-12-08T16:05Z 355.7K followers, 2453 engagements "@MarvinTBaumann There's no question that Germany is providing the bulk of European support for Ukraine in addition to the Nordics the UK and France. The question for Europe is what to do about countries that are not providing any meaningful aid and free riding That's the issue" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1998105506452258846) 2025-12-08T19:00Z 355.7K followers, 2007 engagements "China is plowing massive resources into becoming a global player in cars. Its push to electrify the economy by burning lots of fossil fuels is part of that. None of this is about being "green." It's the same old mercantilism that always drives China" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1998106680312435053) 2025-12-08T19:05Z 355.7K followers, 21K engagements "There's nothing organic about China's emergence as a huge car exporter. It's the same old mix of mercantilism and industrial policy that's always defined China and comes at huge cost to the rest of the world. Trade barriers are the right answer to this" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1998339567351370028) 2025-12-09T10:30Z 355.7K followers, 11.1K engagements "Early in 2025 @ryanl_hass and I quantified the degree of undervaluation in China's RMB in this @BrookingsFP study. It's undervalued at least XX% even allowing for recent US tariffs. China's massive industrial policy push into EVs is making this worse" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1998342893149266177) 2025-12-09T10:44Z 355.7K followers, 12.1K engagements "The China bots on here want you to think Beijing won the trade war with the US. That's nonsense and you just have to look at Chinese trade data to see that. US tariffs caused massive trade diversion and transshipment a huge deflationary shock to China" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1998345865715417365) 2025-12-09T10:55Z 355.7K followers, 19.5K engagements "The US' national security strategy is popular in Europe because it allows EU politicians to stir up nationalist sentiment to cover up their own failings. The truth is that the EU has been its own worst enemy on Ukraine. Time for profound change in Europe" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1998349992319201405) 2025-12-09T11:12Z 355.7K followers, 10.3K engagements "Underneath all the pretty stories about China's "green" electrification are thermal power plants that burn tons and tons of coal to pump out electricity. As of October 2025 XX% of China's electricity generation came from thermal power plants (blue)" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1998352668809458082) 2025-12-09T11:22Z 355.7K followers, 11.8K engagements "@IlvesToomas You're misunderstanding my post. Just look at all the transshipments going from EU countries to Russia via Kyrgyzstan. It's unbelievable this continues X years after the invasion of Ukraine. Easier to blast the NSS and post the EU flag than be honest and fix what's broken" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1998356991991795839) 2025-12-09T11:40Z 355.7K followers, 10.3K engagements "@untouchable0815 Don't get me wrong. I'm a proud European too. But we need to be honest about what got us into this mess. If we do lots of transshipments we don't look serious. If countries like Italy and Spain don't support Ukraine we don't look serious. The status quo is our own worst enemy" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1998360929382334638) 2025-12-09T11:55Z 355.7K followers, XXX engagements "@IlvesToomas My point is this (and I say this as a proud fellow European): we need to take a long hard look in the mirror. If we export lots of goods to Russia X years after the invasion we're not serious. If Spain and Italy give no aid to Ukraine we're not serious. Deep reform is needed" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1998361599271485644) 2025-12-09T11:58Z 355.7K followers, XXX engagements "If you're interested in how global supply chains work and how this year's US tariffs hit the world's economy watch this amazing report by @EdConwaySky on @SkyNews. Ed truly defines the frontier of journalism on the global economy tariffs and sanctions" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1998379917176905803) 2025-12-09T13:11Z 355.7K followers, 15.8K engagements "Excited to host this Russia sanctions event at @BrookingsInst on Dec XX with keynote by Nobel Prize winner @baselinescene dark fleet expert @CraigKennedy77 and a panel discussion with @EUAmbUS @varvuolis @SwedeninUSA and @UKinUSA moderated by @econ_harris. Reach out to join" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1998475837000024133) 2025-12-09T19:32Z 355.7K followers, 8746 engagements "@DaveKeating This is Europe. Germany the Nordics the UK and France put lots of resources towards helping Ukraine while Italy and Spain give almost nothing. Europe is evolving into a coalition of the willing along many dimensions and that's a fundamentally a good thing" [X Link](https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1998481748905312600) 2025-12-09T19:55Z 355.7K followers, 6143 engagements
[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]
@robin_j_brooks Robin Brooks
The global economy is experiencing a "debasement trade" where investors are seeking safe-haven assets due to concerns over high debt levels and policy chaos. This trend is driving up the value of certain currencies, such as the Swedish krona, and assets like gold, although the recent precious metals rally has paused. The trade is also characterized by a shift away from fiat currencies and towards safe-haven assets, with some experts warning of a potential crisis in countries with high debt levels.
Engagements: XXXXXX #
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- X Months XXXXX +52%
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- X Year XXXXXXX +9.80%
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Social Influence
Social category influence countries XXXXX% finance #6372 currencies #2138 travel destinations XXXX% cryptocurrencies XXXX% automotive brands XXXX%
Social topic influence euro #264, debt #501, italy #560, ukraine #531, germany #827, china #1108, countries #1241, japan #2071, spain #436, russia #768
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @startedbetter @ilvestoomas @zhanghao869179 @why__knot @doripenem666 @ericfine123 @william_r2rclub @brookingsinst @graphcall @alonkritzman @jtreble_deriv @eduardoguedesc2 @battleforeurope @econharris @hannolustig @untouchable0815 @chengweichin1 @joequant @jochen_roeder @quirinobiscaro
Top assets mentioned Bitcoin (BTC)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours
"TARGET2 balances are unconditional and indefinite balance of payments support. In EM the equivalent is IMF programs which mandate reforms. Not so in the Euro zone where TARGET2 perpetuates bad economic and political equilibria in high-debt countries"
X Link 2025-09-26T11:50Z 355.6K followers, 76.3K engagements
"@sichuan01 @vincenzosciarr3 Does that factor in the cost of producing batteries and such So the full start to finish life cycle of an EV versus ICE"
X Link 2025-12-06T18:00Z 355.7K followers, 1901 engagements
"Immigration in Germany is a "stock" and a "flow" issue. The new government has done lots to address the "flow" problem. But the rise in the AfD is about the "stock." The political center isn't addressing this with the speed and determination that's needed. So AfD keeps growing"
X Link 2025-11-30T14:52Z 355.7K followers, 56.2K engagements
"Russias frozen reserves expose an EU governance crisis. Just recall how Greece undercut the G7 price cap on behalf of its shipping oligarchs. Belgiums veto now is more of the same. The EU cant be a geopolitical power if its always busy herding cats"
X Link 2025-12-07T12:45Z 355.7K followers, 27.4K engagements
"Congrats to all the EU patriots for posting this flag today. A reminder that the EU remains deadlocked on Russia's frozen FX reserves ignores rampant transshipments and allows Greece to keep selling oil tankers to the shadow fleet. Easier to post a flag than doing stuff I guess"
X Link 2025-12-08T00:45Z 355.7K followers, 107.8K engagements
"The German word "Schandfleck" translates roughly as "stain of shame." That's what German exports to Central Asia and the Caucasus are. These exports rose sharply right after Russia invaded Ukraine and are obviously heading to Moscow. This is widely known yet nothing is done"
X Link 2024-02-03T14:46Z 355.6K followers, 93.1K engagements
"June was a bad month for LatAm. Mexican Peso did worst at -XXX% followed by Colombian Peso (-6.9%) and Brazilian Real (-6.0%). In Brazil lots of blame is directed at Lula but that's just political hackery. Much (not all) of recent Real weakness is about LatAm getting clobbered"
X Link 2024-07-01T15:41Z 355.6K followers, 71.3K engagements
"Price action since Friday offers a good lens on where the Yen carry trade is concentrated. EM currencies that have been most hit are the Mexican Peso and Colombian Peso both of which have been known to harbor lots of carry trades. South Africa and Turkey are also getting hit"
X Link 2024-08-05T14:40Z 355.6K followers, 27.8K engagements
"Great piece on Argentina by @grobb2000 at @MarketWatch. Argentina stands alone in Latin America in - again and again - pegging its currency to the Dollar. The rest of the region floats their currencies which is what Argentina needs to do"
X Link 2025-09-23T12:17Z 355.6K followers, 33.9K engagements
"The Swedish Krona (red) is emerging as a key safe haven currency in the debasement trade. It's been chronically undervalued for over a decade and the country is well managed with low debt. The Euro (pink) is failing to benefit as is the Yen. Both have serious debt dysfunction"
X Link 2025-10-28T12:10Z 355.6K followers, 11.2K engagements
"The debasement trade lives. You can see that in how markets trade currencies. Low-debt currencies are rising against USD - led by Swedish Krona (red) - while high-debt ones like Euro (pink) or Yen (blue) are lagging. The desperate scramble for safe havens"
X Link 2025-10-29T10:00Z 355.6K followers, 21.8K engagements
"The end of the Euro will see the periphery devalue. The sovereign debt crisis a decade ago was a "sudden stop" in capital flows. In EM those cause currencies to fall XX% (lhs) which brings recovery (rhs). Devaluation sounds scary but it'll bring growth"
X Link 2025-11-05T11:02Z 355.6K followers, 45.2K engagements
"Sweden's gov't debt is XX% of GDP. Switzerland's is 38%. These are the new safe havens markets are flocking to in the global debt overhang and debasement trade. Both countries have yields way below their G10 peers when hedged back into the same currency"
X Link 2025-11-11T13:19Z 355.6K followers, 67.2K engagements
"@GoranHjelm It's great to see Sweden reap the benefits of prudent fiscal policy. Sweden is these days able to issue debt far below its G10 peers once you hedge foreign yields back into Swedish Krona. Markets are giving recognition to Sweden for getting debt right"
X Link 2025-11-11T15:07Z 355.6K followers, XXX engagements
"@borghi_claudio A break-up of the Euro would mean a huge devaluation for Italy and a debt crisis. What would follow with high probability is a debt write-down that would wipe out the retirement savings of millions of Italians. Wouldn't a few reforms be a better choice"
X Link 2025-11-11T15:36Z 355.6K followers, 13.8K engagements
"The end of the US government shutdown is sparking another crazy rally in safe haven assets. That's true for all precious metals (lhs) but it's also true in currency space (rhs). Swedish Krona (red) is outperforming again due to Sweden's very low government debt level"
X Link 2025-11-13T12:57Z 355.6K followers, 14.4K engagements
"Turkey is deeply divided: a secular elite on the coasts and a very religious conservative population in the interior. The way Erdogan keeps winning elections is by using one credit boom after another to artificially boost growth. That's unsustainable"
X Link 2025-11-15T12:44Z 355.6K followers, 302.7K engagements
"@escutarian Every country has a speed limit to growth. If you push above that speed limit other things start to break. In Turkey's case artificially high growth has caused a cycle of devaluation in Turkish Lira because growth widened the current account deficit to unsustainable levels"
X Link 2025-11-16T13:33Z 355.7K followers, 7399 engagements
"@greg_ip In addition to the negative growth effect on the rest of the world this is also a deflationary shock for the world. China is basically exporting some of the adverse hit from US tariffs on its economy to the rest of the world"
X Link 2025-11-17T12:55Z 355.6K followers, 8390 engagements
"Huge churn in markets right now. The S&P XXX (red) is falling as markets tire of the AI bubble but what's really getting clobbered is bitcoin (orange) which is down almost XX% since Jackson Hole which sparked the gold rally (black) and should have been good for bitcoin"
X Link 2025-11-21T01:09Z 355.6K followers, 25.6K engagements
"This is where the "debasement trade" comes from. Japan's debt at XXX% of GDP leaves no good options. If Japan stabilizes the Yen by allowing yields to rise there's a fiscal crisis. If it keeps rates low the Yen goes back into a devaluation spiral. Too much debt is a killer"
X Link 2025-11-21T01:25Z 355.7K followers, 222.7K engagements
"@ChristophH56523 The point I'm making is that Italy's 10-year yield would be MUCH higher if Germany put its foot down at the ECB and forced it to stop providing fiscal assistance to high-debt countries. The result would be a sharp fall in stock prices across all banks on the periphery"
X Link 2025-11-22T10:17Z 355.6K followers, 1366 engagements
"@hic_somnia Totally agree on your point on banking consolidation in Europe. But that can't happen while financial markets are distorted because high-debt countries get a subsidy from the ECB which causes their financial sector to be artificially inflated. That makes no sense"
X Link 2025-11-22T12:48Z 355.6K followers, 1061 engagements
"@aledenicola Yes that is a nice way of putting it. You can't on one hand argue for yield caps and then insist that banking union requires an artificially inflated balance sheet like Unicredit to be allowed to take over Commerzbank. This nonsense all starts and ends with ECB yield caps"
X Link 2025-11-22T13:06Z 355.6K followers, 1951 engagements
"@emmevilla Do you have any substantive pushback or just nationalistic chest pounding"
X Link 2025-11-22T19:31Z 355.6K followers, 7198 engagements
"The "debasement trade" since Jackson Hole on Aug XX is panicked buying of any asset that might be a safe haven from debt debasement. Bitcoin was billed as the ultimate fiat debasement hedge but it's down XX% since Jackson Hole. Bitcoin is no safe haven"
X Link 2025-11-24T08:47Z 355.6K followers, 16.7K engagements
"My post that Germany must exit the Euro was greeted with the predictable accusation that I'm anti-European. No. The EU is a bystander on Ukraine when it should lead. Much of the blame goes to Italy and Spain for their endless debt shenanigans. Enough"
X Link 2025-11-24T08:59Z 355.7K followers, 147K engagements
"Without a doubt Lufthansa is the worlds best airline. Just please dont make the rookie mistake of smiling while on board"
X Link 2025-11-24T10:25Z 355.7K followers, 44.3K engagements
"The US announced Rosneft and Lukoil sanctions on Oct XX. Those only went into effect Nov XX but it looks like they scared off Greek oil tankers well ahead of going into effect. This will be pushing down Urals oil price versus Brent and hurting Russia"
X Link 2025-11-28T12:44Z 355.6K followers, 32.9K engagements
"I get a lot of pushback on whether the debasement trade is real or not. I think most of those points miss the forest for the trees. You just have to look at what's going on with precious metals to know something highly unusual - and worrying - is going on"
X Link 2025-11-29T12:38Z 355.6K followers, 22.2K engagements
"Greece and its shipping oligarchs - to which the government is beholden - have done huge damage to the safety of the EU. I'd love to see the EU sanction just one Greek shipping oligarch. That would stop Greek ships from transporting Russian oil overnight"
X Link 2025-11-29T12:54Z 355.6K followers, 28.4K engagements
"A regime change is happening in global FX. Currencies that used to be cyclical and volatile are becoming safe havens as markets seek out countries with low debt. That's the Swedish Krona which now has a higher correlation with gold than Swiss Franc"
X Link 2025-11-30T12:18Z 355.7K followers, 69.6K engagements
"High public debt isn't inevitable or preordained. But it does require good governance and a central bank that doesn't shield countries from negative consequences of bad fiscal policy. Northern Europe has that in spades and shows the way for the Euro zone"
X Link 2025-11-30T12:30Z 355.6K followers, 13.9K engagements
"@JaderMarquezz So I don't actually think Nazi parallels are accurate. I don't for example think that right-wing extremism was just taking a slumber and is now awakening. For most Germans this is about dissatisfaction with immigration. That just needs to be addressed forcefully and quickly"
X Link 2025-11-30T14:33Z 355.6K followers, 12.4K engagements
"@Danjsalt For sure. Switzerland has struggled with this for well over a decade as lots of high-end Euro zone money has sought protection there. But through all of that the Swiss Franc has also kept appreciating. There's only so much a small open economy can do in the face of big inflows"
X Link 2025-11-30T18:21Z 355.6K followers, 1358 engagements
"@HannoLustig The fixation on rate hikes by the BoJ drives me bonkers. The long end of the yield curve is what matters for financial conditions - just like everywhere else - and here the BoJ remains a big buyer in gross terms. What happens with the policy rate is a side show"
X Link 2025-12-01T00:58Z 355.7K followers, 27.3K engagements
"In 2019 @davidfrum wrote a prescient article on the US with the title: "If liberals don't enforce borders fascists will." Unfortunately that's as true for Germany as it is for the US. The political center in Germany is paralyzed as the AfD keeps rising"
X Link 2025-12-01T13:32Z 355.6K followers, 22.3K engagements
"Weird stuff is happening in global markets. Precious metals are in a crazy rally since the Fed signaled resumption of cuts this summer. Japans at the forefront of this debasement trade. I discussed this with @cherykang on @CNBC yesterday"
X Link 2025-12-02T14:40Z 355.6K followers, 12.3K engagements
"Russia's tax revenues from oil fell almost XX% in Nov '25 as US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil scared away Western buyers pushing down Urals oil price versus Brent. Oil is Putin's Achilles heel and is the way to bring Russia to the negotiating table. @econ_harris @BrookingsInst"
X Link 2025-12-03T13:48Z 355.6K followers, 26.7K engagements
"Where is fiscal distress greatest Chart shows 10-year yield on the horizontal axis and 10y20y forward yield on the vertical i.e. what markets price for 10-year yield in XX years. The bigger the vertical gap the bigger is distress. In descending order: Japan France Italy"
X Link 2025-12-04T17:37Z 355.6K followers, 13.4K engagements
"The German verb "entgleiten" means "to slip out of control." That's what Germany feels like currently. This isn't about Trump China or anything external. It's about a political center that turned on itself and is busy name calling instead of fixing stuff"
X Link 2025-12-05T13:13Z 355.6K followers, 37.3K engagements
"@Kasparov63 Unfortunately there's plenty of European countries that are withholding aid too. Spain and Italy are at the top of the list. I hear arguments like "this isn't our war" or "we're a long way away from Ukraine" to justify this. This might be even worse given this is a European war"
X Link 2025-12-06T15:15Z 355.6K followers, 2437 engagements
"@kellychen_macro These data are from China's national statistics bureau. They clearly have every incentive to make things look better than they really are so - if anything - I'd guess these data probably overstate the "green" element of electricity generation"
X Link 2025-12-07T13:08Z 355.6K followers, 1171 engagements
"@Angela3v999 The Euro is just a system of exchange rate pegs. So its only true advantage is that it eliminates nominal exchange rate volatility and companies know how to hedge that at low cost very well. The Euro is the reason Spain and Italy give no money to Ukraine. Not good enough"
X Link 2025-12-07T18:14Z 355.6K followers, 1320 engagements
"Brazil is on track to become the Switzerland of Latin America. A huge trade surplus is emerging unlike any other country in the region. This is going to give Brazil external stability and a strong currency unlike the rest of Latin America. Brazil will be the region's anchor"
X Link 2023-05-25T17:57Z 355.6K followers, 3.2M engagements
"@CarlosRamirezF What's happening with Mexican Peso is scary. The Peso has risen so much in real effective terms that it's causing a big deterioration in Mexico's underlying current account balance. Add to that what might happen if Trump wins in November and I think the Peso is very vulnerable"
X Link 2024-03-17T18:23Z 355.6K followers, 1.5M engagements
"The world's top X cities of the future X. Frankfurt X. Stockholm X. Toronto X. New York X. Tokyo"
X Link 2025-10-26T15:57Z 355.6K followers, 830.7K engagements
"The precious metals bubble is clearly bursting. The catalyst for this was the IMF/WB meetings X weeks ago as I flagged in my post during the meetings. This is Dollar positive because - underneath all this - people are going back to US exceptionalism"
X Link 2025-10-28T12:15Z 355.7K followers, 285.8K engagements
"In March 2021 Erdogan fired the head of the central bank. What followed were rate cuts - while every other central bank in the world was hiking - and immolation of the Turkish Lira. Turkey is still trying to dig itself out from that terrible policy error"
X Link 2025-11-16T13:06Z 355.7K followers, 105.7K engagements
"Japan's Yen in real effective terms (black) is almost as weak as Turkish Lira (blue) which is the world's weakest currency after Erdogan eviscerated his central bank. Japan is in denial on debt. Sanae Takaichi's fiscal stimulus only makes this worse"
X Link 2025-11-21T11:16Z 355.7K followers, 867.2K engagements
"The Unicredit bid for Commerzbank is wrong. Germany allows the ECB to cap Italy's yield which artificially inflates Italy's banking sector. When Germany then isn't enthusiastic about the Unicredit bid it's accused of undermining banking union. Madness"
X Link 2025-11-22T09:55Z 355.6K followers, 98.3K engagements
"Japan is in denial on debt. It's 10-year gov't bond yield is only XXX% (blue) which looks ok but that same yield 10-years forward is XXX% (orange) and 20-years forward is XXX% (red). The only certainty for Japan is that it'll have either a debt crisis or a currency crisis"
X Link 2025-11-22T10:11Z 355.7K followers, 368.5K engagements
"Japan has huge gov't debt but low long-term yields. Here's the thing. High debt is real. Low long-term yields are not. They're pretend. BoJ caps yields with ongoing bond buying. Without this yields would be far higher and Japan would be in a debt crisis"
X Link 2025-11-23T09:34Z 355.7K followers, 166.9K engagements
"The Japanese Yen (black) in real effective terms is as weak as Turkish Lira (blue). That should be all the warning that's needed for Japan's policy leaders that something is very badly wrong. But are they listening No. They're doing more debt stimulus"
X Link 2025-11-24T09:08Z 355.7K followers, 68.2K engagements
"I got many requests to post an update of these charts that compare 10-year gov't bond yields (blue) with 10y20y forward yields (red). We're in a slow-moving global debt crisis with lots of idiosyncratic trouble spots: Japan the UK France Italy & Spain"
X Link 2025-11-25T10:56Z 355.7K followers, 67K engagements
"We now have a perverse situation in the EU where Finland - which is spending lots of money to support Ukraine - gets put in the excess deficit procedure while Italy - which gives very little support to Ukraine - is about to exit. This makes NO sense"
X Link 2025-11-27T12:23Z 355.6K followers, 133.5K engagements
"@adonataccio You can do this kind of thing but the next time you demand solidarity (which Italy demands regularly) people will remember"
X Link 2025-11-27T15:34Z 355.6K followers, 183.2K engagements
"Fed easing cycles sometimes coincide with recession and sometimes they don't. When the latter happens the S&P XXX sees massive gains because financial conditions end up being far too loose. That's where we are now in my opinion. This is bullish S&P 500"
X Link 2025-11-29T12:18Z 355.6K followers, 65.1K engagements
"The Euro is a wonderful thing but it's also become a vehicle for high-debt countries to pretend everything is fine when it isn't. High debt is why Spain and Italy give so little support to Ukraine. This all starts and ends with the ECB. Time for change"
X Link 2025-11-29T12:30Z 355.6K followers, 46.3K engagements
"There's only one question for Germany: what policies will stop the inexorable rise of the AfD which is heading for XX% in the polls. This will literally tip Europe if it continues. Germany with AfD in government won't stand up to Russia. And it also won't stick with the Euro"
X Link 2025-11-29T13:13Z 355.7K followers, 1.3M engagements
"@TheGoBetween32 Ordinarily I'd agree. But AfD is up from XXXX% in the February election to XX% in the latest polls. That's a big rise and an indicator how unpopular the current political establishment is. And as Germany struggles economically the Euro will inevitably be called into question"
X Link 2025-11-29T15:00Z 355.6K followers, 44.6K engagements
"Germany is in a really tough spot. That's not about de-industrialization or China or whatever. It's about a grand coalition in which the SPD has disproportionate power which in turn reflects efforts to keep AfD out of power. I'm hugely against the AfD but this is NOT working"
X Link 2025-11-30T13:53Z 355.6K followers, 33.6K engagements
"In the X months since the election AfD has become Germany's most popular party. This massive surge is a political earthquake for Europe. Will a Germany with AfD in power defend the Baltics or Poland if Russia attacks Will it take Germany out of the Euro"
X Link 2025-12-01T11:40Z 355.6K followers, 103.5K engagements
"Core inflation in each of the G-4 has settled well above its pre-COVID equilibrium and in most cases is above the X% target. That's not about supply shocks but about demand and a global economy that's running hot. No wonder we have the "debasement trade.""
X Link 2025-12-02T12:23Z 355.6K followers, 29.2K engagements
"Japan is in a terrible spot. High debt means it's constantly having to choose between a falling Yen and allowing interest rates to rise. The BoJ this week chose the latter and is signaling a December rate hike. Long-term yields like 10y20y forward (red) are back to August highs"
X Link 2025-12-02T12:47Z 355.7K followers, 230.1K engagements
"Central banks are massively distorting government bond yields. That's worst in the Euro zone because of ECB yield caps. The result is that Italy is the only G7 economy where the long-term 10y20y forward yield is down this year. I mean we all love Italy but this is ridiculous"
X Link 2025-12-02T18:18Z 355.7K followers, 58.8K engagements
"The ECB had no problem capping govt bond yields of Italy and Spain in 2022 which was well outside its mandate. But it now says it cant help with Russias frozen FX reserves due to its mandate even as Italy and Spain give no aid to Ukraine. What a mess"
X Link 2025-12-02T18:33Z 355.6K followers, 29.8K engagements
"One puzzle this year is that US Treasury yields have fallen despite out-of-control fiscal policy and erratic policies. One theory is that this is because the private sector is deleveraging. I don't think that's why. The US is still the best of a bad bunch"
X Link 2025-12-03T12:34Z 355.6K followers, 13.2K engagements
"Germany is facing a political apocalypse. This past weekend saw violent protests against the AfD in Gieen which will only feed the view among many Germans that the country is descending into lawlessness. The AfD will likely get another bump in the polls"
X Link 2025-12-03T19:49Z 355.7K followers, 63K engagements
"I wrote about bond market vigilantes driving up long yields (red) back in September. Japan with its huge overhang of gov't debt is at the forefront of this. Its 10-year JGB yield is XXX% but its 10-year yield XX years forward is 4.5%. Crisis territory"
X Link 2025-12-03T20:06Z 355.7K followers, 39.1K engagements
"@HannoLustig Great posts There's X "trades:" (i) the basis trade; (ii) the swap spread trade. Both are long cash Treasuries. The former is short futures the latter shorts the fixed rate leg in an interest rate swap. The former blew up in Mar '20. The latter in Apr '25. Both are dangerous"
X Link 2025-12-04T01:02Z 355.6K followers, 4733 engagements
"I started flagging a scary rise in yields on long-term gov't debt back in September. Since then this issue has only gotten worse since Fed rate cuts have driven short-term yields down but long-term yields haven't fallen. The bond vigilantes are here"
X Link 2025-12-04T13:43Z 355.7K followers, 55.9K engagements
"Japan's long-term yields are rising but here's the thing: they're still much too low and need to rise a lot more. Easiest way to see that is in the chart below which shows that Japan's 30-year yield is the same as Germany which has way lower debt"
X Link 2025-12-04T16:45Z 355.7K followers, 74.5K engagements
"Germany is no longer a safe haven. Best way to see that is chart below which shows central bank rate cuts (-) on the horizontal axis and rise in 30-year yield (+) on the vertical. Switzerland (CH) gets safe haven inflows that Germany (DE) no longer gets"
X Link 2025-12-05T12:21Z 355.7K followers, 26.7K engagements
"10-year yields are a vanity project for governments. A lot of effort goes into keeping those low. So - if you want to get a sense of fiscal stress - it's better to look at the long end of the curve. That looks most distressed for Japan France and Italy"
X Link 2025-12-05T13:39Z 355.7K followers, 32.3K engagements
"What's the best bond market measure of fiscal distress In my view it's the difference between 10-year yield (blue) and 10y20y forward (red) yield. If the latter is way higher markets are pricing big risk premia. That's true for Japan France and Italy"
X Link 2025-12-05T16:59Z 355.7K followers, 33.2K engagements
"Earlier this year there were lots of prognostications that the Dollar is going into a multi-year decline. That hasn't played out and it's worth thinking about why. The fact that the Dollar isn't falling is about a lack of alternatives. The Euro in particular is falling short"
X Link 2025-12-06T12:33Z 355.7K followers, 10.2K engagements
"Sometimes the sum of the parts isn't worth much. That's true for the Euro. The Euro zone desperately needs fiscal space to counter threats like Russia and China. Without the Euro the EU will be stronger and have more fiscal space. Time to stop pretending"
X Link 2025-12-06T12:48Z 355.7K followers, 9157 engagements
"Greece's shipping oligarchs continue to sell oil tankers to Putin's shadow fleet every day. It's this shadow fleet (gray) that funds Russia's war in Ukraine. How can the EU expect to be taken seriously if it turns a blind eye to this A massive failure"
X Link 2025-12-06T12:58Z 355.7K followers, 30.6K engagements
"Amid all the chaos of US policy this year the Euro failed to make ANY gains in reserve managers allocations because the EU is seen as weak and indecisive. Seizing Russias FX reserves would boost the Euro not weaken it as this @FT piece says"
X Link 2025-12-06T14:48Z 355.7K followers, 10.4K engagements
"Amid the chaos of US tariffs in Q2 '25 Euro failed to make headway in the IMF COFER reserve manager survey (blue). To gain standing as reserve currency you must be willing to project geopolitical power by doing things like seizing Russia's FX reserves"
X Link 2025-12-06T15:11Z 355.7K followers, 8892 engagements
"Can someone please explain to me the excitement over China's electrification China set up a lot of power lines but XX% of electricity generation is still from fossil fuels (blue). What matters is how electricity gets generated & whether you're self-sufficient. Not power lines"
X Link 2025-12-06T17:03Z 355.7K followers, 131.3K engagements
"Lots of people are going on about cheap electricity in China and how this will allow it to win the AI race with the US. Here's the thing about that electricity: it's from burning fossil fuels like coal with huge CO2 emissions. There is no "green" China"
X Link 2025-12-07T12:28Z 355.7K followers, 85.6K engagements
"Beijing's bots want you to think that China won the tariff war. That's nonsense. The way China kept its exports going in the face of US tariffs is by cutting the prices on the goods it exports. That's bad for exporters and a deflationary shock for China"
X Link 2025-12-07T13:04Z 355.7K followers, 138.8K engagements
"We're in a global war for AI dominance. China doesn't have the edge in chips but - as a ruthless dictatorship that doesn't care about the environment - it can build lots and lots of coal-fired powerplants (blue) to make electricity as cheap as possible"
X Link 2025-12-07T15:57Z 355.7K followers, 24.3K engagements
"EU enlargement has been a disaster. You can't become a geopolitical force if you admit Russian satellite states like Hungary. This mistake is now getting compounded by admitting Bulgaria to the Euro. Bulgaria has well-known erosion of democracy and corruption. What are we doing"
X Link 2025-12-07T16:34Z 355.7K followers, 28K engagements
"I'm a proud European. It must be clear to everyone at this point that Europe isn't working. We should openly debate what's holding us back and fix it. We should NOT hush up what isn't working. That only perpetuates what makes us weak on the global stage"
X Link 2025-12-07T16:59Z 355.7K followers, 62.2K engagements
"The EU is an amazing thing and a force for good. But Russia's invasion of Ukraine laid bare that some things are badly broken. We should openly debate these things including the future of the Euro. Hushing things up is the road to European irrelevance"
X Link 2025-12-07T17:32Z 355.7K followers, 14.4K engagements
"It's fashionable to post the EU flag today. That worries me. Better to reflect on what led us here and have a sober debate on how Europe can again become relevant on the global stage. Because we are NOT relevant. No amount of flag posting changes that"
X Link 2025-12-07T18:45Z 355.7K followers, 41.9K engagements
"China wants to dominate global EVs. Euro zone imports of Chinese cars are up to XXX% of total car imports in Aug '25 up from XXX% in 2019. Belgium is up to 22%. Spain at XX% Italy at XX% and Poland at 10%. All up from basically zero a few years ago"
X Link 2025-12-08T12:54Z 355.7K followers, 77.5K engagements
"At one point in 2024 Brazil was importing XX% of its motor vehicles from China. That's down to XX% in the latest data but what should be clear to everyone is that China is rolling up the global car market aggressively and the frontlines of that battle are in emerging markets"
X Link 2025-12-08T13:12Z 355.7K followers, 46K engagements
"@IlvesToomas This isn't about bashing Europe. We Europeans - I am one too - have a victim mentality. We keep looking to the US to protect us. We need to stand on our own two feet and get our act together. So stop doing vacuous nonsense like posting flags and actually make the EU stronger"
X Link 2025-12-08T15:03Z 355.7K followers, 28.2K engagements
"@eucopresident Posted without comment: The EU Wall of Shame"
X Link 2025-12-08T15:37Z 355.7K followers, 4454 engagements
"@IlvesToomas Look you can either have an emotional reaction or you calmly examine how the EU got itself in a place where the US feels empowered to treat the EU in this way. The latter is the way forward. Just look at the massive flood of EU transshipments to Russia. There is a lot to fix"
X Link 2025-12-08T15:40Z 355.7K followers, 1999 engagements
"China's massive surge in auto exports isn't about advanced economies (blue). It's primarily about emerging and frontier markets (red). This is where the battle for dominance in global autos is now being fought and where auto producers in Europe and Japan have the most to lose"
X Link 2025-12-08T15:50Z 355.7K followers, 41.2K engagements
"@nicogoncas The reason the US talks to the EU this way is because of this: negligible aid from Spain for Ukraine"
X Link 2025-12-08T16:04Z 355.7K followers, 2936 engagements
"@EU_Made_Simple Yes. They just don't want to pay for it"
X Link 2025-12-08T16:05Z 355.7K followers, 2453 engagements
"@MarvinTBaumann There's no question that Germany is providing the bulk of European support for Ukraine in addition to the Nordics the UK and France. The question for Europe is what to do about countries that are not providing any meaningful aid and free riding That's the issue"
X Link 2025-12-08T19:00Z 355.7K followers, 2007 engagements
"China is plowing massive resources into becoming a global player in cars. Its push to electrify the economy by burning lots of fossil fuels is part of that. None of this is about being "green." It's the same old mercantilism that always drives China"
X Link 2025-12-08T19:05Z 355.7K followers, 21K engagements
"There's nothing organic about China's emergence as a huge car exporter. It's the same old mix of mercantilism and industrial policy that's always defined China and comes at huge cost to the rest of the world. Trade barriers are the right answer to this"
X Link 2025-12-09T10:30Z 355.7K followers, 11.1K engagements
"Early in 2025 @ryanl_hass and I quantified the degree of undervaluation in China's RMB in this @BrookingsFP study. It's undervalued at least XX% even allowing for recent US tariffs. China's massive industrial policy push into EVs is making this worse"
X Link 2025-12-09T10:44Z 355.7K followers, 12.1K engagements
"The China bots on here want you to think Beijing won the trade war with the US. That's nonsense and you just have to look at Chinese trade data to see that. US tariffs caused massive trade diversion and transshipment a huge deflationary shock to China"
X Link 2025-12-09T10:55Z 355.7K followers, 19.5K engagements
"The US' national security strategy is popular in Europe because it allows EU politicians to stir up nationalist sentiment to cover up their own failings. The truth is that the EU has been its own worst enemy on Ukraine. Time for profound change in Europe"
X Link 2025-12-09T11:12Z 355.7K followers, 10.3K engagements
"Underneath all the pretty stories about China's "green" electrification are thermal power plants that burn tons and tons of coal to pump out electricity. As of October 2025 XX% of China's electricity generation came from thermal power plants (blue)"
X Link 2025-12-09T11:22Z 355.7K followers, 11.8K engagements
"@IlvesToomas You're misunderstanding my post. Just look at all the transshipments going from EU countries to Russia via Kyrgyzstan. It's unbelievable this continues X years after the invasion of Ukraine. Easier to blast the NSS and post the EU flag than be honest and fix what's broken"
X Link 2025-12-09T11:40Z 355.7K followers, 10.3K engagements
"@untouchable0815 Don't get me wrong. I'm a proud European too. But we need to be honest about what got us into this mess. If we do lots of transshipments we don't look serious. If countries like Italy and Spain don't support Ukraine we don't look serious. The status quo is our own worst enemy"
X Link 2025-12-09T11:55Z 355.7K followers, XXX engagements
"@IlvesToomas My point is this (and I say this as a proud fellow European): we need to take a long hard look in the mirror. If we export lots of goods to Russia X years after the invasion we're not serious. If Spain and Italy give no aid to Ukraine we're not serious. Deep reform is needed"
X Link 2025-12-09T11:58Z 355.7K followers, XXX engagements
"If you're interested in how global supply chains work and how this year's US tariffs hit the world's economy watch this amazing report by @EdConwaySky on @SkyNews. Ed truly defines the frontier of journalism on the global economy tariffs and sanctions"
X Link 2025-12-09T13:11Z 355.7K followers, 15.8K engagements
"Excited to host this Russia sanctions event at @BrookingsInst on Dec XX with keynote by Nobel Prize winner @baselinescene dark fleet expert @CraigKennedy77 and a panel discussion with @EUAmbUS @varvuolis @SwedeninUSA and @UKinUSA moderated by @econ_harris. Reach out to join"
X Link 2025-12-09T19:32Z 355.7K followers, 8746 engagements
"@DaveKeating This is Europe. Germany the Nordics the UK and France put lots of resources towards helping Ukraine while Italy and Spain give almost nothing. Europe is evolving into a coalition of the willing along many dimensions and that's a fundamentally a good thing"
X Link 2025-12-09T19:55Z 355.7K followers, 6143 engagements