[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.] [@Muzzlebuster](/creator/twitter/Muzzlebuster) "One of the most beautiful things about $MSCI's business model is that most of it is subscription-based. Couple that with the fact that it is world-wide in scope with an essentially infinite runway and we can understand why it has been able to grow so steadily over the years. But when a business reports what looks like a slow-down in subscription growth investors and traders alike can freak out. It also didn't help matters when they reported the subscription retention rate falling from XXXX% last quarter to XXXX% this quarter"  [@Muzzlebuster](/creator/x/Muzzlebuster) on [X](/post/tweet/1947963238609473682) 2025-07-23 10:13:22 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements "But it helps to look back so we can keep things in perspective. Retention rates can jump around a little in the short term just like anything else but are clearly quite steady as we zoom out. The subscription growth also can be lumpy in the very near-term"  [@Muzzlebuster](/creator/x/Muzzlebuster) on [X](/post/tweet/1947963240626974756) 2025-07-23 10:13:22 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements "$MELI is perhaps one of the most impressive businesses out there complete with a series of moats that all act together in a flywheel that feeds all aspects of the business. It's not the cheapest business out there but I believe that when they report earnings on 7/31 the stock could offer a substantial opportunity to investors who know what to look for. Check it out. 👇🧵 Chart from @stock_unlock"  [@Muzzlebuster](/creator/x/Muzzlebuster) on [X](/post/tweet/1943800851983675530) 2025-07-11 22:33:31 UTC XXX followers, 4117 engagements "Given the conservative nature of the base low-end case and arguably the middle scenario as well this seems appealing - especially given the raw strength of the business. Let me know what you think and good luck out there"  [@Muzzlebuster](/creator/x/Muzzlebuster) on [X](/post/tweet/1947963252715008350) 2025-07-23 10:13:25 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements "$MSCI is a powerhouse company with global scale and subscription-based recurring revenues - a true compounder with a serious moat. But what is the best way to value the stock and is it a market-outperformer from here This is a great case study on why using different valuation methods is so important. 👇🧵 Chart from @stock_unlock"  [@Muzzlebuster](/creator/x/Muzzlebuster) on [X](/post/tweet/1941932194865532985) 2025-07-06 18:48:09 UTC XXX followers, 4322 engagements "This chart tells an incredible story. $GOOG's ability to realize returns on the money it invests in itself has been growing over time. All the while the price investors pay for the ability of the business to generate cash has been decreasing. This is what a disconnect looks like. When a business has ROIC and ROCE numbers that look like this and are actually ascending over time I don't care what their Capex numbers are. At all. I don't want them to return the FCF to me. They can spend whatever they want because I know what the return will be in the future. These are proven capital allocators."  [@Muzzlebuster](/creator/x/Muzzlebuster) on [X](/post/tweet/1948326331596312980) 2025-07-24 10:16:10 UTC XXX followers, 4001 engagements "But it doesn't stop there. Margins are also temporarily compressed and look horrible to investors who aren't looking for these things. In the Q3 2024 earnings call CEO Marcos Galperin explained the following: ".when you increase the portfolio very rapidly as we did this quarter you provision the losses upfront. And that happens not only on credit cards but also on consumer credit and merchant credits which are very profitable books. But as we accelerate we need to provision upfront and that generates an incremental bad debt which is generating compression on margins this quarter. So it's not"  [@Muzzlebuster](/creator/x/Muzzlebuster) on [X](/post/tweet/1943800858291937332) 2025-07-11 22:33:33 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements "It depends where the most bang for the buck is. For example is the expected return in buying back the stock greater than the expected return from capital expenditures into compute Waymo etc i.e. Just how undervalued does management believe the stock is and how fast do they think the company can grow profits Also it's a public company. there is a lot of pressure from investors who may not really understand to do various things like pay dividends and buy back stock. Sometimes they have to appease huge holders. It's a funny game"  [@Muzzlebuster](/creator/x/Muzzlebuster) on [X](/post/tweet/1948375310203826320) 2025-07-24 13:30:47 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements "Also as they deploy their strategies by allocating capital within the business their returns are absolutely amazing. Notice again how the chart values are trending up. chart by @stock_unlock"  [@Muzzlebuster](/creator/x/Muzzlebuster) on [X](/post/tweet/1947963246444741103) 2025-07-23 10:13:24 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements "The index and analytics giant $MSCI was sold off XXX% yesterday after reporting earnings. Clearly the market was spooked. But was it an over-reaction or was it justified And most importantly is it an opportunity for investors 👇🧵 chart by @stock_unlock"  [@Muzzlebuster](/creator/x/Muzzlebuster) on [X](/post/tweet/1947963235992522761) 2025-07-23 10:13:21 UTC XXX followers, 10.8K engagements "So is the market offering us an opportunity Given $MSCI's long-term targets we can exact a pricing model to see potential annual returns over a XX year period. Currently there exist 77.81M total shares outstanding and over the last X years the number of shares has decreased with a CAGR of -1.87%. Recall that the EBITDA margin target is in the high 50s. To be conservative we can use XX% for our EBITDA margin. We will use a starting revenue of $2.92B. We can use a range of EBITDA CAGRs a low medium and high scenario. Since this company has been historically pretty steady-state lets use X% 11%"  [@Muzzlebuster](/creator/x/Muzzlebuster) on [X](/post/tweet/1947963249195892807) 2025-07-23 10:13:24 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements "But where does their confidence come from For starters margins are increasing with time. This speaks to a very sticky moat - an unassailable competitive advantage that earns them more and more profit for every dollar that hits the cash register. chart by @stock_unlock"  [@Muzzlebuster](/creator/x/Muzzlebuster) on [X](/post/tweet/1947963244477329410) 2025-07-23 10:13:23 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements "So we need to ask ourselves "Has anything really changed with $MSCI" Clearly if you ask management the answer is a resounding "No." We can see this clear as day in their long-term guidance below provided this quarter"  [@Muzzlebuster](/creator/x/Muzzlebuster) on [X](/post/tweet/1947963242635993287) 2025-07-23 10:13:23 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements "With the income statement hit by provisions we can turn our attention to the cash flow statement. $MELI has recently announced that it will rapidly increase its fulfillment distribution centers in Brazil by over XXX% by the end of the year. This is extremely aggressive investment into the business and is very expensive"  [@Muzzlebuster](/creator/x/Muzzlebuster) on [X](/post/tweet/1943800860511023381) 2025-07-11 22:33:33 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements "If you want to learn more about how I personally approach an investment I wrote it down. Paperback and E-book both available on Amazon"  [@Muzzlebuster](/creator/x/Muzzlebuster) on [X](/post/tweet/1947963254061330722) 2025-07-23 10:13:25 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements
[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]
@Muzzlebuster
"One of the most beautiful things about $MSCI's business model is that most of it is subscription-based. Couple that with the fact that it is world-wide in scope with an essentially infinite runway and we can understand why it has been able to grow so steadily over the years. But when a business reports what looks like a slow-down in subscription growth investors and traders alike can freak out. It also didn't help matters when they reported the subscription retention rate falling from XXXX% last quarter to XXXX% this quarter"
@Muzzlebuster on X 2025-07-23 10:13:22 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements
"But it helps to look back so we can keep things in perspective. Retention rates can jump around a little in the short term just like anything else but are clearly quite steady as we zoom out. The subscription growth also can be lumpy in the very near-term" @Muzzlebuster on X 2025-07-23 10:13:22 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements
"$MELI is perhaps one of the most impressive businesses out there complete with a series of moats that all act together in a flywheel that feeds all aspects of the business. It's not the cheapest business out there but I believe that when they report earnings on 7/31 the stock could offer a substantial opportunity to investors who know what to look for. Check it out. 👇🧵 Chart from @stock_unlock" @Muzzlebuster on X 2025-07-11 22:33:31 UTC XXX followers, 4117 engagements
"Given the conservative nature of the base low-end case and arguably the middle scenario as well this seems appealing - especially given the raw strength of the business. Let me know what you think and good luck out there" @Muzzlebuster on X 2025-07-23 10:13:25 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements
"$MSCI is a powerhouse company with global scale and subscription-based recurring revenues - a true compounder with a serious moat. But what is the best way to value the stock and is it a market-outperformer from here This is a great case study on why using different valuation methods is so important. 👇🧵 Chart from @stock_unlock" @Muzzlebuster on X 2025-07-06 18:48:09 UTC XXX followers, 4322 engagements
"This chart tells an incredible story. $GOOG's ability to realize returns on the money it invests in itself has been growing over time. All the while the price investors pay for the ability of the business to generate cash has been decreasing. This is what a disconnect looks like. When a business has ROIC and ROCE numbers that look like this and are actually ascending over time I don't care what their Capex numbers are. At all. I don't want them to return the FCF to me. They can spend whatever they want because I know what the return will be in the future. These are proven capital allocators." @Muzzlebuster on X 2025-07-24 10:16:10 UTC XXX followers, 4001 engagements
"But it doesn't stop there. Margins are also temporarily compressed and look horrible to investors who aren't looking for these things. In the Q3 2024 earnings call CEO Marcos Galperin explained the following: ".when you increase the portfolio very rapidly as we did this quarter you provision the losses upfront. And that happens not only on credit cards but also on consumer credit and merchant credits which are very profitable books. But as we accelerate we need to provision upfront and that generates an incremental bad debt which is generating compression on margins this quarter. So it's not" @Muzzlebuster on X 2025-07-11 22:33:33 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements
"It depends where the most bang for the buck is. For example is the expected return in buying back the stock greater than the expected return from capital expenditures into compute Waymo etc i.e. Just how undervalued does management believe the stock is and how fast do they think the company can grow profits Also it's a public company. there is a lot of pressure from investors who may not really understand to do various things like pay dividends and buy back stock. Sometimes they have to appease huge holders. It's a funny game" @Muzzlebuster on X 2025-07-24 13:30:47 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements
"Also as they deploy their strategies by allocating capital within the business their returns are absolutely amazing. Notice again how the chart values are trending up. chart by @stock_unlock" @Muzzlebuster on X 2025-07-23 10:13:24 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements
"The index and analytics giant $MSCI was sold off XXX% yesterday after reporting earnings. Clearly the market was spooked. But was it an over-reaction or was it justified And most importantly is it an opportunity for investors 👇🧵 chart by @stock_unlock" @Muzzlebuster on X 2025-07-23 10:13:21 UTC XXX followers, 10.8K engagements
"So is the market offering us an opportunity Given $MSCI's long-term targets we can exact a pricing model to see potential annual returns over a XX year period. Currently there exist 77.81M total shares outstanding and over the last X years the number of shares has decreased with a CAGR of -1.87%. Recall that the EBITDA margin target is in the high 50s. To be conservative we can use XX% for our EBITDA margin. We will use a starting revenue of $2.92B. We can use a range of EBITDA CAGRs a low medium and high scenario. Since this company has been historically pretty steady-state lets use X% 11%" @Muzzlebuster on X 2025-07-23 10:13:24 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements
"But where does their confidence come from For starters margins are increasing with time. This speaks to a very sticky moat - an unassailable competitive advantage that earns them more and more profit for every dollar that hits the cash register. chart by @stock_unlock" @Muzzlebuster on X 2025-07-23 10:13:23 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements
"So we need to ask ourselves "Has anything really changed with $MSCI" Clearly if you ask management the answer is a resounding "No." We can see this clear as day in their long-term guidance below provided this quarter" @Muzzlebuster on X 2025-07-23 10:13:23 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements
"With the income statement hit by provisions we can turn our attention to the cash flow statement. $MELI has recently announced that it will rapidly increase its fulfillment distribution centers in Brazil by over XXX% by the end of the year. This is extremely aggressive investment into the business and is very expensive" @Muzzlebuster on X 2025-07-11 22:33:33 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements
"If you want to learn more about how I personally approach an investment I wrote it down. Paperback and E-book both available on Amazon" @Muzzlebuster on X 2025-07-23 10:13:25 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements