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[@ChazNuttycombe](/creator/twitter/ChazNuttycombe)
"🚨NEW poll in VA HD-86 (Harris +2 seat in Hampton Roads) from @StateNavigate GOV 🔵Spanberger +5 LG 🔵Hashmi +1 AG 🔵Jones +1 HoD 🔵Thornton +6"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1980690552246137064) [@ChazNuttycombe](/creator/x/ChazNuttycombe) 2025-10-21T17:40Z 30.2K followers, 155.5K engagements


"This is probably the best ad of Sears's campaign. Why is this only airing two weeks before the election"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1980766409832448272) [@ChazNuttycombe](/creator/x/ChazNuttycombe) 2025-10-21T22:41Z 30.2K followers, 33.8K engagements


"It's the economy stupid. Forever and always"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1980814221290946879) [@ChazNuttycombe](/creator/x/ChazNuttycombe) 2025-10-22T01:51Z 30.2K followers, 9841 engagements


"In the Richmond + Charlottesville media market Spanberger leads by XX points. In the Northern Virginia (DC) media market Spanberger leads by XX points. In 2024 RVA region was +10 Harris NoVA region was +20 Harris Spanberger getting biggest boost from her home base"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1980999782379491455) [@ChazNuttycombe](/creator/x/ChazNuttycombe) 2025-10-22T14:08Z 30.2K followers, 13.3K engagements


"Let's turn to voter registration stats. VA always has less registered voters pretty much in the year after the presidential as they clean up voter rolls. We're comparing 12/1/24 to 10/1/25. Most areas w/ more registered voters usually have new housing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1977805206550364374) [@ChazNuttycombe](/creator/x/ChazNuttycombe) 2025-10-13T18:34Z 30.2K followers, XXX engagements


"I was thinking about where each statewide candidate's best locality will be relative to their statewide margin + environment. Spanberger + Reid: Henrico County Miyares: Virginia Beach City Jones: Norfolk City Hashmi: Richmond City Sears:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1978241361137500488) [@ChazNuttycombe](/creator/x/ChazNuttycombe) 2025-10-14T23:27Z 30.2K followers, 16.2K engagements


"Here at Capitol Square in Richmond VA to cover the "No Kings" rally. People are starting to fill in I'd ballpark a couple hundred people with an average age of 50"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1979588625042911523) [@ChazNuttycombe](/creator/x/ChazNuttycombe) 2025-10-18T16:41Z 30.2K followers, 32.1K engagements


"Laughing at the SNL Gen Alpha skit at the kids being named like "Braylor" and "Tayson" and then I remembered my parents named me Chaz"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1979904821290287261) [@ChazNuttycombe](/creator/x/ChazNuttycombe) 2025-10-19T13:37Z 30.2K followers, 4530 engagements


"Miyares's campaign knows Sears is toast and her campaign is just throwing whatever at the wall that can stick yeah. No coordination. Despite this site/app having Sears fervor like I said back in April the race for Governor is not competitive. X ain't real life"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1979914529061364166) [@ChazNuttycombe](/creator/x/ChazNuttycombe) 2025-10-19T14:16Z 30.2K followers, 24.4K engagements


"This is a great comparison of satellite access this year vs. last year @DjsokeSpeaking made the @StateNavigate staff made X requests to the VA DoE for a list like this and never heard back. God Bless Election Twitter"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1979981511744012540) [@ChazNuttycombe](/creator/x/ChazNuttycombe) 2025-10-19T18:42Z 30.2K followers, 6810 engagements


"We're gonna be seeing some pretty wonky differences in some places as satellites open up and there're already some s. Prince William and Fairfax (especially PWC) counting so slowly as of late for whatever reason (a week or so ago it was running above the average in VA)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1979981513883058456) [@ChazNuttycombe](/creator/x/ChazNuttycombe) 2025-10-19T18:42Z 30.1K followers, 2352 engagements


"Trying to compare each exact day isn't perfect when you're at the mercy of registrars. Some are gonna count and report fast some will be slow. Really it won't be until Nov 2nd (or 3rd 2nd is a Sunday) that we get a good idea of who's got the advantage in EV"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1979981998887206943) [@ChazNuttycombe](/creator/x/ChazNuttycombe) 2025-10-19T18:44Z 30.1K followers, 2533 engagements


"2017 party ID at this point was around D+5 in Gallup and now it's D+3 FWIW. And Trump's approval Barely higher than where it was at this point then. Party ID in most public #VAGOV polls is between R+1 to D+3. Prev. Party ID in exit polls: 13: D+5 17: D+11 21: D+2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1975198820037538113) [@ChazNuttycombe](/creator/x/ChazNuttycombe) 2025-10-06T13:57Z 30.2K followers, 26.5K engagements


"Latest @StateNavigate forecasts: GOV 🔵Spanberger +10.9 LG 🔵Hashmi +7.8 AG 🔵Jones +7.0 HoD 🔵 58-42 DEM"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1977448281316971000) [@ChazNuttycombe](/creator/x/ChazNuttycombe) 2025-10-12T18:56Z 30.2K followers, 98K engagements


"The RVA media market is just dominating this election so far. Spanberger doing a good job at getting out her base but doing mediocre thus far in Hampton Roads and NoVA. They're hoping satellites get swarmed starting this weekend"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1977803946212343874) [@ChazNuttycombe](/creator/x/ChazNuttycombe) 2025-10-13T18:29Z 30.2K followers, 13.8K engagements


"BIG weekend at @StateNavigate y'all: 🔶West Virginia Navigate launches 🔶We are going into the field with our first statewide poll for the VA GOV/LG/AG/HoD Generic 🔶Going into the field for a poll on VA HD-86 GET NOTIFIED when both go live:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1978836347793113410) [@ChazNuttycombe](/creator/x/ChazNuttycombe) 2025-10-16T14:52Z 30.2K followers, 20.5K engagements


"Jason Miyares' chances continue to creep upward in our AG forecast. He's now down by XXX% a 2pt improvement over the last two weeks. Now at a XX% chance of winning. XX days until Election Day. Non-partisan pollsters're doing their rounds soon"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1979305413809180875) [@ChazNuttycombe](/creator/x/ChazNuttycombe) 2025-10-17T21:55Z 30.2K followers, 12.4K engagements


"Voter registration in college towns around Virginia is tracking to be more like 2017 not 2021. If college students aren't Republican and just anti-incumbent that dooms Obenshain and Batten. Unlikely to doom Wilt because voter reg there isn't as impressive compared to those 2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1979957241483595956) [@ChazNuttycombe](/creator/x/ChazNuttycombe) 2025-10-19T17:06Z 30.2K followers, 6394 engagements


"Jesus Christ y'all just look at the sheet. Some of these satellites open 1-2 weeks later compared to last year. Alexandria: X days later Arlington: X days later Fairfax: X week later PWC: X week later Richmond City: X weeks later"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1979985421204435149) [@ChazNuttycombe](/creator/x/ChazNuttycombe) 2025-10-19T18:58Z 30.2K followers, 49K engagements


"The reason why party ID in polling for #VAGOV is more R than 2024 more often than not (D+3.5) and as red as 2021 (D+2) is because pollsters are deciding to weight to 2024 presidential. We'll see if that helps them or hurts them"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1980079505503842681) [@ChazNuttycombe](/creator/x/ChazNuttycombe) 2025-10-20T01:11Z 30.2K followers, 6542 engagements


"+1 DEM party ID. XX% college educated. XX% black. XX% 65+"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1980310624132559216) [@ChazNuttycombe](/creator/x/ChazNuttycombe) 2025-10-20T16:30Z 30.2K followers, 122.6K engagements


"Actually nevermind 2024 was about XX% 65+"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1980322148024741947) [@ChazNuttycombe](/creator/x/ChazNuttycombe) 2025-10-20T17:16Z 30.2K followers, 6364 engagements


"Norfolk is smart: Spanberger doing a good job at getting black voters in Richmond out. It's Hampton Roads where he can do the most to help her"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1980661388327768310) [@ChazNuttycombe](/creator/x/ChazNuttycombe) 2025-10-21T15:44Z 30.2K followers, 15.7K engagements


"Satellites opened up yesterday in most places but it'll take time for DEMs to have the opportunity to catch up. The fact they're where they are in XX in EV despite the reduction in access to satellites though is an encouraging sign for them"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1980679641087017269) [@ChazNuttycombe](/creator/x/ChazNuttycombe) 2025-10-21T16:56Z 30.2K followers, 2668 engagements


"Two days ago PWC was at XX% of its same-day 2024 turnout. After satellites opened they're now at 47%. PWC satellites opened a week later this time compared to last year"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1980680169674404009) [@ChazNuttycombe](/creator/x/ChazNuttycombe) 2025-10-21T16:58Z 30.2K followers, 4103 engagements


"This is the only public poll of a Virginia House of Delegates race in 2025. Polls of course have been conducted for these seats but they're all partisan and internal; ours is nonpartisan and public. Data should be a right not a privilege and we're making that happen"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1980692777106092499) [@ChazNuttycombe](/creator/x/ChazNuttycombe) 2025-10-21T17:48Z 30.2K followers, 16.8K engagements


"🚨NEW POLL from @StateNavigate VA-GOV 🔵Spanberger +13; 55-42 VA-LG 🔵Hashmi +11; 53-42 VA-AG 🔵Jones +5; 50-45 VA-HoD Generic 🔵DEM +12; 53-41 @marywitha4 and I with the breakdown and takeaways"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1980948582212505807) [@ChazNuttycombe](/creator/x/ChazNuttycombe) 2025-10-22T10:45Z 30.2K followers, 187.9K engagements


"In Hampton Roads Spanberger leads by XX points which is about what Harris got in 2024 (was +11) Sears has a XX point in the West (all other media markets besides RVA/NoVA/Hampton Roads) which is down from Trump +33. Also a huge shift"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1981000870285492529) [@ChazNuttycombe](/creator/x/ChazNuttycombe) 2025-10-22T14:13Z 30.2K followers, XXX engagements