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[@Brad_Setser](/creator/twitter/Brad_Setser)
"China is now resisting pressure on the yuan to appreciate. That isn't (yet) the conventional wisdom but the evidence is now clear at this stage. A new blog -- 1/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1945662987185836289) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-07-17T01:52Z 139.3K followers, 85.9K engagements


"I would qualify this a bit -- The rise in yields of 10y bunds v (impossible to find) Swiss govvies seems mostly to be a function of different rate expectations for the ECB and the SNB (which is fighting appreciation); the bund remains a safe asset . 1/2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1968292564370612287) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-09-17T12:34Z 139.2K followers, 28.1K engagements


"I have been focused on China's extraordinary trade surplus recently. But Korea is also posting some big numbers "The monthly Sept trade balance stood at a surplus of $XXXX billion . the biggest since September 2018" 1/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1973952636727841017) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-03T03:25Z 139.3K followers, 29.6K engagements


"Here is a chart showing BCRA fx reserves after adjusting for the influx from the IMF -- they are clearly down this year + $XX billion of the remaining total is Chinese yuan from the PBOC swap line and not really usable"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1975341041525137721) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-06T23:22Z 139.2K followers, 45.2K engagements


"Useful chart. Euro is very strong against almost all of East Asia these days -- no real mystery why Europe's trade balance would be slipping but for tax driven Irish pharma . 1/2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1975349323019001907) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-06T23:55Z 139.3K followers, 39K engagements


"There are rumors -- based on material reported in the Argentine press -- that suggest the US lifeline to Argentina will be funded using Special Drawing Right certificates and that the BCRA will on lend some funds to the MoF to do bond buybacks . 1/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1976347387221434443) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-09T18:01Z 139.2K followers, 52.9K engagements


"Wow. And what the . "To that end today we directly purchased Argentine pesos" Not the best use of ESF funds ESF= Argentine Stabilization Fund"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1976359181159649705) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-09T18:48Z 139.2K followers, 46.7K engagements


"@sobel_mark I have supported using the Exchange Stabilization Fund for counter-intervention in the past . but the idea there was to buy undervalued currencies not to buy overvalued currencies. And wonder what instruments the US will buy with its peso stabilization fund "  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1976360080145809508) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-09T18:52Z 139.3K followers, 9489 engagements


"I continue to be struck that the Treasury is portraying its support for Argentina much more as a reward for Milei's existing policies than as emergency support that allows Milei and team time to correct the weakness that led them to run out of fx "  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1976398553951109193) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-09T21:25Z 139.2K followers, 70K engagements


"The FT reports that the BCRA's usable reserves are down to $13b "The central bank has about $13bn remaining from an IMF loan which it can sell in currency markets when the peso hits the lower limit of the band under the terms of a bailout the fund delivered in April""  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1976398813381394904) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-09T21:26Z 139.2K followers, 4245 engagements


"my colleague (and friend) @RushDoshi thinks that the US will have to cross retaliate with financial sanctions to level the negotiating table -- that implies a serious escalation 9/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1976694272846868910) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-10T17:00Z 139.3K followers, 40.2K engagements


"@RushDoshi The trade war with China neither proved easy or easy to win (China actually went on an export tear and its manufacturing surplus doubled globally after the Trump term X tariffs) -- Supply chain wars will be even harder. The US starts from a weaker position too 10/10"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1976694595422765323) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-10T17:01Z 139.3K followers, 32.6K engagements


"100% tariffs -- especially if on top of the current effective tariff rate of XX% -- will force the issue. November isn't far away "  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1976763788671021166) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-10T21:36Z 139.3K followers, 43.6K engagements


"@pstAsiatech So then what is your propose deal and what are the real nat'l sec concerns you would protect v the manufactured ones you would give up -- I found your piece excellent it its description of the uses of rare earths but vague in the nature of the deal you favor"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1977477039633658299) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-12T20:50Z 139.2K followers, XXX engagements


"@kevinziyizhao your example re limited Chinese value added is out of date. BYD cars are almost all Chinese value added. Many other examples. hence massive surplus"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1977515848266039388) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-12T23:24Z 139.2K followers, XXX engagements


"I think this is indeed China's core ask along with adjusting the export controls . But it creates a big problem for the US tariff structure -- the Trump X tariffs on China would fall to XX% below SE Asia (19-20%) Europe (15%) and Japan/ Korea (15%) 1/2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1977550197958873520) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-13T01:41Z 139.3K followers, 69.8K engagements


"China's September trade data is very hard to read. The monthly surplus is up $10b from September of last year but down $10b from August -- so there is a bit of a sign of stabilization at a high level. But it is a strange stabilization 1/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1977596693488271814) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-13T04:46Z 139.2K followers, 25.1K engagements


"And there is no doubt that the + XX% bilateral tariff of Trump X is having a big impact on bilateral trade patterns (see the US v EU divergence in China's exports which is more extreme than in Trump 1) 8/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1977599997538631969) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-13T04:59Z 139.3K followers, 2688 engagements


"This though is a crazy chart -- there has been an over $200b swing in China's trade balance with the emerging economies in the last 18ms. Massive surplus there now . which maps to a lot of anecdata 9/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1977600476708528570) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-13T05:01Z 139.3K followers, 2735 engagements


"And for those who really want to delve into the technical details around the use of the Exchange Stabilization Fund -- here is my FT Alphaville piece with Stephen Paduano"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1978267144489238901) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-15T01:10Z 139.3K followers, 10.9K engagements


"@jnordvig my hunch is that both mag-7/ us equities and gold become momentum plays in XX and thus the correlation is new and doesn't back test. low conviction view tho"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1978340325690049007) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-15T06:01Z 139.2K followers, 1598 engagements


"@BaldingsWorld and the US high cards are remember the US did raise the tariffs to XXX% and then backed down more or less unilaterally"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1979031093727621196) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-17T03:45Z 139.2K followers, 2460 engagements


"My former colleague Mark Sobel Were the United States to offer Argentina a longer-term support package to back an unsustainable exchange rate that would be a major folly and waste of U.S. taxpayer resources" 2/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1979276011419132185) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-17T19:59Z 139.3K followers, 3067 engagements


"Good question -- Would really like to know what the Treasury actually has in mind for the second $20b and who exactly is interested in putting new money in "  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1978923823035502945) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-16T20:39Z 139.4K followers, 26.2K engagements


"active pharma ingredients/ key chemical precursors is the same -- as likely are battery critical minerals (the US and EU will need to decide if they can rely on China for the batteries used in drones for example at some stage) Hard choices as success takes time and money 5/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1980357084115091746) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-20T19:34Z 139.4K followers, 10.2K engagements


"China -- per the excellent reporting on the WSJ/ @Lingling_Wei -- appears to be pursuing a strategy of applying maximum pressure in pursuit of maximum concessions . full tariff rollback rollback of export controls relaxation of nat'l security review on Chinese investment 1/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1976691234103058664) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-10T16:48Z 139.4K followers, 272.7K engagements


"Sino American economic relations have gotten testy. Bessent is arguing that China's export controls are a sign of weakness: "This is a sign of how weak their economy is and they want to pull everybody else down with them." & the talks this summer weren't easy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1977965820941566155) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-14T05:12Z 139.4K followers, 93.8K engagements


"Me on why folks should think that China's external surplus is actually quite big and a bit of a problem"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1979330429795864673) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-17T23:35Z 139.4K followers, 39.1K engagements


"Making Argentine Cattle Producers Great Again (an unexpected plot twist . to put it mildly . didn't realize the US government had a strategic beef stockpile .)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1980108023021375824) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-20T03:05Z 139.4K followers, 21.3K engagements


"China *only* got a XXX pp (y/y) contribution from net exports to growth in q3. That is still huge for a big economy by the way . 1/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1980118758070120702) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-20T03:47Z 139.4K followers, 12.2K engagements


"2/ Waiting for the details including how much fx the BCRA gets upfront to defend the current exchange rate band "  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1980298807603802564) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-20T15:43Z 139.4K followers, 10.3K engagements


"ICEs and EVs/ NEVs are basically splitting the domestic market (ICE sales have stabilized at around 12m cars) which means a lot of China's 20-25m in EV production capacity is available for export 4/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1980301137757847581) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-20T15:52Z 139.4K followers, 4886 engagements


"Large economies do not generally rely heavily on foreign demand tis true. That is what makes China recent heavy reliance on foreign demand significant -- the soaring goods surplus and the unusually large contribution from net exports highlight how China is still relying on exports to offset domestic weakness"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1980321353128677560) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-20T17:12Z 139.4K followers, 31K engagements


"+ lots of evidence that China hasn't completely moved out of its traditional export sectors (apparel home appliances toys etc). India and Indonesia are concerned about China's exports in these sectors and the impact these exports have had on their home industries"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1980341758757335439) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-20T18:34Z 139.4K followers, 6792 engagements


"Financed with the BCRA swap line with the BCRA on lending some of the proceeds to the government The buyback is easy; getting the money to pay for it is hard "  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1980406857614422205) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-20T22:52Z 139.4K followers, 15.3K engagements


"The US hasn't signed up to a G-7 plan to mobilize the immobilized Russian assets to support Ukraine -- short-sighted on the US side as a lot of the money that would go to Ukraine would flow back to the US for military supplies . 1/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1980409015319556592) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-20T23:01Z 139.4K followers, 14.3K engagements


"The US isn't actually the key actor here -- nearly all the frozen assets are in Europe. France Germany the UK the ECB and even Belgium all matter more . 2/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1980409296220483894) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-20T23:02Z 139.4K followers, 6911 engagements


"The actual source of repayment for all of these external debts (and the only way Argentina can rebuild its depleted reserves) is an export surplus -- and that requires the kind of import compression that comes with a depreciation or a sharp downturn . 4/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1980467782677590026) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-21T02:54Z 139.4K followers, 1812 engagements


"The euro zone is a system where export driven economies like Germany link their currencies to a broader economic block and thus avoid a shock that would price German auto and machinery exports out of global markets absent massive fx intervention by the Buba"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1974898783717912596) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-05T18:05Z 139.3K followers, 83.7K engagements


"Good chart from the IMF (in Georgieva's curtain raiser) showing that the story of 2025 has been the deprecation of the Chinese yuan not the depreciation of the dollar (the dollar is back where it was in 2024 China is much weaker) 1/4"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1976014766708834505) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-08T20:00Z 139.3K followers, 45.7K engagements


"Chris -- blanket criticism of all DC think tanks/ think tank work doesn't help your case. I do my work by mining fx related data sets (US and Chinese) by spending hours going through IMF reports for Exim and CDB exposure etc . and that work is used by all sides of the aisle. No buffet as research for me. Cheers"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1976326318435221722) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-09T16:38Z 139.3K followers, 2370 engagements


"@BaldingsWorld congrats. i would suggest that you return to taking on China not going after "easy" targets like think tanks . you have a big platform use it. & you have a point about the difficulties reducing dependence on non-market economies. develop it (no more advice from me)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1976865499670847807) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-11T04:20Z 139.3K followers, XXX engagements


"And woah the Trump Administration has discovered the value of allies "We also have much more leverage in terms of the unity with the western and Asian democracies. + US making China's controls a priority in the G-7 . 5/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1977968538145919439) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-14T05:23Z 139.3K followers, 10.9K engagements


"The IMF needs to take a serious look at its methodology for forecasting the current account balance in key countries -- the current approach is yielding somewhat absurd outcomes that forecast real problems (notably China's surplus) away 1/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1978148982481105033) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-14T17:20Z 139.4K followers, 43.5K engagements


"Not sure though what China has done other than trade in schemes which tend to pull forward demand. I certainly hope the IMF doesn't think China has done enough . and the IMF elsewhere notes that China fiscal support will fade ("In China the deficit is expected to narrow slightly through 2030 following a widening of XXX percentage points in 2025") 4/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1978150914931241322) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-14T17:28Z 139.4K followers, 2835 engagements


"But the big omitted variable in the @IMFNews analysis (other than high frequency data that shows the customs goods and services surplus on track to top $X trillion this year) is the real exchange rate . 4/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1978151294515777922) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-14T17:29Z 139.4K followers, 2990 engagements


"Definitely not escalatory . (serious point is that this tweet and some of the material in the WSJ story suggest that the US is now trying to be a bit more targeted in its efforts to generate economic leverage v China)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1978186714788106654) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-14T19:50Z 139.4K followers, 10.3K engagements


"Not sure if the US and China are actually negotiating via the press -- but they are clearly doing a lot of chest beating in the press . (I expect in anticipation of a high stakes negotiation in X weeks) More great reporting 6/6"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1978331427834847243) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-15T05:25Z 139.4K followers, 11.3K engagements


"Martn Rapetti (University of Buenos Aires): the Milei administration fell in love with a strong peso which is very common among politicians here in Argentina. Agreed 1/2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1978707469258850602) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-16T06:19Z 139.4K followers, 13.8K engagements


"There is a pretty broad consensus that putting US money into Argentina to backstop the current exchange rate regime (i.e. the peso's current trading band) isn't a good use of taxpayer funds 3/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1979276305523970224) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-17T20:00Z 139.4K followers, 6664 engagements


"@GlennLuk @RushDoshi Don't really want to engage on a nice sunny afternoon but it seems that China is building a lot fewer new apartments and thus household capital formation/ the household savings and investment balance has swing significantly"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1979656907188326793) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-18T21:12Z 139.4K followers, 1095 engagements


"@mitchpresnick Relevant to US firms (am well aware of that) not so relevant to the broader US economy (which is impacted only via US ownership of the more modest income streams). would want a sectoral accounting of the $750b"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1980108855234425332) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-20T03:08Z 139.4K followers, XXX engagements


"@mitchpresnick I prefer BEA data to bloody AI slop so please no personally think the business folks who focus on China revenue have this wrong and the beltway types have this right (know we disagree). German firms deindustrializing Germany to keep their Ch market = good case study"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1980114216477392928) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-20T03:29Z 139.4K followers, XX engagements


"@TartuTV not really enforced but a contractual requirement not to pledge assets needed for repayment of the preferred creditors (and more generally not to reduce payments capacity to all creditors by pledging assets to a subset of creditors)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1980489818363871516) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-21T04:22Z 139.4K followers, XX engagements


"The IMF's "flagship" market access debt sustainability assessment -- inexplicably -- ignores the balance of payments. Bond investors don't have that luxury "  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1968721619221684636) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-09-18T16:59Z 139.4K followers, 33.3K engagements


"Useful comment from EM veteran Mark Dow -- I of course believe that the pressure on the peso inside the band ultimately stems from a peso that is too strong for an Argentine economy that struggles to generate a foreign exchange surplus to pay external debt/ rebuild reserves"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1970859325464965237) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-09-24T14:34Z 139.4K followers, 32.6K engagements


"Argentina's Finance Ministry (I assume) is selling the dollars it bought from Argentina's grain/ soy trading houses last week at a pretty substantial clip right now 1/2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1973472870304251920) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-01T19:39Z 139.4K followers, 11.9K engagements


"Don't think the Exchange Stabilization Fund is "funded" out of annual appropriations so I don't think there is a legal issue cutting Argentina a check during a shutdown when Americans aren't getting paid But it certainly will be a political problem . 1/2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1973902422775881924) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-03T00:06Z 139.4K followers, 18.2K engagements


"Bessent: US Treasury wants to support Argentina's strong policies . The message seems a bit off. Countries with strong policies don't usually need a second bailout in a year. Argentina already blew through $14b from the IMF 1/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1975312882721284232) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-06T21:31Z 139.4K followers, 154.7K engagements


"@RushDoshi p.s. anything by @KeithBradsher on China's control over rare earths is worth reading closely. China clearly decided to show its full hand yesterday; it thinks it has the high cards"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1976697869819113733) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-10T17:14Z 139.4K followers, 281.4K engagements


"Building out capacity (including refining capacity) for rare earths/ other critical minerals should indeed by a real priority now and the risk of weaponization of this this and other supply chains should have been taken more seriously in the past. But it won't be easy 1/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1977126080596394261) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-11T21:36Z 139.4K followers, 166.1K engagements


"Secretary Bessent has a bit of work to do to convince Americans (and perhaps the market) that the bailout of Argentina (and direct peso purchases): a) will work b) is a good idea 1/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1979275636414861813) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-17T19:57Z 139.4K followers, 25.3K engagements


"The US of course hasn't disclosed the amount of direct peso purchases it has done -- and such purchases come on top of the $20b committed in a credit line to Argentina's central bank. h/t @sobel_mark 2/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1980013297244995941) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-19T20:48Z 139.4K followers, 31.3K engagements


"@gonglei89 gross trade isn't the relevant variable here NX contribution to growth is . and by large I was thinking of the US/ the euro area/ EU and China. cheers"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1980343268203516051) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-20T18:40Z 139.4K followers, XXX engagements


"The Journal goes through past attempts to revive Mountain Pass/ US rare earths production -- including the now forgotten case of Molycorp from XX to XX "Beginning around 2005 Chinas government tightened the screws levying export taxes on rare earths that made it costlier for Western magnet makers to churn out products . Rare-earth production became so limited in the West that an American company Molycorp attempted to revive the Mountain Pass mine and make its own magnets" 2/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1980356070880240002) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-20T19:30Z 139.4K followers, 6528 engagements


"A $40b rescue (if it materializes which is still unlikely) would stack a lot of new external debt on top of Argentina's $56b IMF loan its debts to the MDBs and its bonded debt 2/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1980467100339843478) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-21T02:52Z 139.4K followers, 2300 engagements


"The banks understandably want a Treasury guarantee or offshore collateral -- but any pledge of export receipts takes funds away from the IMF and the World Bank (negative pledge anyone not really enforced any more but . ) 3/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1980467490288529576) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-21T02:53Z 139.4K followers, 2221 engagements


"Germany has absolutely gotten clobbered by the second China shock (the Russian gas shock/ phasing out Nuclear also didn't help) 1/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1975992028707090802) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-08T18:29Z 139.4K followers, 217.1K engagements


"There are solutions (the DoD is offering price guarantees) -- but they have a price tag. The fundamental problem is that projects that provide economic security don't necessarily deliver a clear commercial return 13/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1977129823702053186) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-11T21:50Z 139.4K followers, 5021 engagements


"The only big of good news -- for rare earths and for that matter active pharma ingredients/ key precursors -- is that the actual capital costs aren't huge. 10s of billions may low 100s of billions would make a big difference (contrast with the AI buildout) 14/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1977130211545141447) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-11T21:52Z 139.4K followers, 6060 engagements


"So from XXX% tariffs on all Chinese trade (in response to the rare earth/ critical mineral export controls) to targeted sanctions on cooking oil"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1978186277934579978) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-14T19:48Z 139.4K followers, 69.4K engagements


"The US -- not just the Trump Administration -- lost leverage when President Trump over-escalated in April. The US could not sustain XXX% tariffs and more or less had to unilaterally back down. Xi and his team know that 1/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1978328050988179599) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-15T05:12Z 139.4K followers, 57.7K engagements


"My interview with @joshualipsky during last week's Bank/ Fund meeting -- covered Argentina and China . Two disparate countries. But understanding the balance payments and international debt/ asset position is critical to both cases"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1980062310388682871) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-20T00:03Z 139.4K followers, 16.6K engagements


"Absolutely true and something that needs to be addressed by policy -- the market outcome at this stage is just to rely on China (the low cost supplier)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1980064683823657110) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-20T00:13Z 139.4K followers, 14.8K engagements


"The US discloses its foreign exchange reserves weekly with a week lag (data is the Treasury's ESF + the Fed's account) with a currency breakdown. So the troubled peso purchase program would normally be pretty easy to track . 1/2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1980070110665855006) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-20T00:34Z 139.4K followers, 15.1K engagements


"@MattZeitlin Actual transaction was done by the "desk" at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on behalf of the Treasury; to date they have bought through Santander and Citi per the Argentine press. Execution would typically be left to FRBNY but doubt they had a procedure in pace for ARS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1980074390835368208) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-20T00:51Z 139.4K followers, 1186 engagements


"A remarkably reduced agenda compared to the first term . Realistic though as it seems clear that the US isn't keen to raise tariff levels further and it hasn't found other good sources of leverage"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1980079628380237966) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-20T01:12Z 139.4K followers, 40.5K engagements


"Trump offering tariff reductions (the + XX% on China now in term X is only a bit more than the + XX on SE Asia) for 'beans and export licenses for rare earths (Sad to be seeking so little .)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1980083327312011546) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-20T01:27Z 139.4K followers, 23.5K engagements


"Easy one to answer -- For China it would be incredibly easy for the US to recreate a XX% tariff. The enforcement for the phase one trade deal from early 2020 was more tariffs. & there are many other 301s (unfair trade) cases that could be brought 1/2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1980110416928792905) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-20T03:14Z 139.4K followers, 23K engagements


"The reality is that China's reported growth over the last 2ys would look a lot different w/o the big net export contribution -- the consumption contribution to growth has consistently been well below its pre-pandemic levels 3/3"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1980120032236491174) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-20T03:52Z 139.4K followers, 28.1K engagements


"The stealth swap -- Argentina (the BCRA) and the US (the Exchange Stabilization Fund) that effectively allows the Treasury to lend dollars to Argentina's central bank. But no detailed terms have been released 1/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1980298088960164187) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-20T15:40Z 139.4K followers, 20.1K engagements


"Chinese investment has stalled out in the third quarter. Real estate investment continues to fall and infrastructure and manufacturing investment have stopped growing . with one notable exception: autos 1/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1980299696473330136) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-20T15:46Z 139.4K followers, 29.8K engagements


"And China's auto imports have basically fallen in 1/2 since 2021 and will be down to 0.5m cars this year (tiny v a domestic market of 25m cars). This chart alone explains much of Germany's current malaise . 6/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1980302039034057210) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-20T15:56Z 139.4K followers, 9351 engagements


"Personally don't see how more balance can be brought into global trade by adjusting sectoral Chinese policies alone (China isn't going to stop adding auto export capacity . ) But I gather @IMFNews isn't convinced (yet) that the exchange rate needs to play a role 7/7"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1980303176172740698) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-20T16:00Z 139.4K followers, 6360 engagements


"@NGurushina no -- the central government of China has a very clean balance sheet (30% debt similar amount of financial assets -- i.e. stakes in the profitable centrally owned SoEs) and runs a modest flow deficit. + it is all financed internally. would worry more if the fiscal deficit fell"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1980340024299356321) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-20T18:27Z 139.4K followers, XXX engagements


"China's comparative advantage in autos generally and EVs/ NEVs particularly emerged out of an active industrial policy -- one that was extremely successful & the fall in the CNY to XXX (and a bigger move v EUR) has supported China's exports. Policy matters"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1980341420558053529) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-20T18:32Z 139.4K followers, 15.3K engagements


"@henrysgao best case is China finally does a policy pivot and gets serious about supporting household consumption as its next growth driver"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1980342012470788569) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-20T18:35Z 139.4K followers, 1176 engagements


"Very useful WSJ report on how China gained control of rare earths processing/ permanent magnet production -- and how it kept control 1/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1980355345529942428) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-20T19:28Z 139.4K followers, 112.3K engagements


"And in 2021 the Biden administration did make an effort to revive interest in US rare earth production as part of a broader supply chain push -- but it foundered when China flooded the market 3/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1980356425877725373) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-20T19:32Z 139.4K followers, 6469 engagements


"The ECB is no doubt right that the risks to any one country are reduced if all the G-7 act together I am personally confident that President Trump's future policies will be sufficiently erratic so as to eliminate in any incentive to move reserves from EUR to USD 3/3"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1980409709036466634) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-20T23:04Z 139.4K followers, 6228 engagements


"So China is paying for the EU's tariffs but not the United States' tariffs :) (in reality this is just an exchange rate effect as the CNY has depreciated against the EUR this year -- pulling European import prices down more than US import prices) 1/2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1980492113599951327) [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) 2025-10-21T04:31Z 139.4K followers, 38.2K engagements