[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.] #  @Brad_Setser Brad Setser Brad Setser posts on X about china, tariffs, eu, japan the most. They currently have XXXXXXX followers and XXX posts still getting attention that total XXXXXXX engagements in the last XX hours. ### Engagements: XXXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::733647469305864195/interactions)  - X Week XXXXXXXXX +54% - X Month XXXXXXXXX +71% - X Months XXXXXXXXXX +90% - X Year XXXXXXXXXX +3.40% ### Mentions: XX [#](/creator/twitter::733647469305864195/posts_active)  - X Week XXX -XX% - X Month XXX +104% - X Months XXXXX +31% - X Year XXXXX +2.90% ### Followers: XXXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::733647469305864195/followers)  - X Week XXXXXXX +0.27% - X Month XXXXXXX +0.70% - X Months XXXXXXX +17% - X Year XXXXXXX +28% ### CreatorRank: XXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::733647469305864195/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence [#](/creator/twitter::733647469305864195/influence) --- **Social category influence** [finance](/list/finance) #996 [countries](/list/countries) #4135 [currencies](/list/currencies) #1191 [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations) XXXX% [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) XXXX% [stocks](/list/stocks) XXXX% [formula 1](/list/formula-1) XXXX% **Social topic influence** [china](/topic/china) #204, [tariffs](/topic/tariffs) #204, [eu](/topic/eu) #79, [japan](/topic/japan) #1036, [investment](/topic/investment) #829, [rates](/topic/rates) 2.05%, [ireland](/topic/ireland) #396, [currency](/topic/currency) #114, [ip](/topic/ip) #235, [money](/topic/money) #3578 **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@joequant](/creator/undefined) [@bauhiniacapital](/creator/undefined) [@robin_j_brooks](/creator/undefined) [@glennluk](/creator/undefined) [@etraalex](/creator/undefined) [@infinitelydean](/creator/undefined) [@technocrtctakes](/creator/undefined) [@thematicmarkets](/creator/undefined) [@blacklioncta](/creator/undefined) [@iamarcivanov](/creator/undefined) [@jmourinbro](/creator/undefined) [@rambutanred](/creator/undefined) [@tylermacro10](/creator/undefined) [@torstengellrich](/creator/undefined) [@kevinziyizhao](/creator/undefined) [@sandertordoir](/creator/undefined) [@kapshow](/creator/undefined) [@robinjbrooks](/creator/undefined) [@fullcarry](/creator/undefined) [@derivativesdon](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Toyota Motor Corporation (TM)](/topic/$tm) ### Top Social Posts [#](/creator/twitter::733647469305864195/posts) --- Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours "The thing is that it could be a lot worse -- Chinese domestic demand for steel seems to be (still) around XXX m tons well up from the XXX m tons back in the last more modest property market slump. A ton is being used to build new factories 2/2"  [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) on [X](/post/tweet/1944938279423324646) 2025-07-15 01:53:15 UTC 134.9K followers, 7442 engagements "I think there is a positive fiscal impulse of just under a pp of GDP from the tax cuts in the big bill (relative to a TCJA extension baseline) over the next 4qs but it increasingly seems that may be more than offset by the tariff hikes. Let's see; numbers aren't Lutnick's forte"  [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) on [X](/post/tweet/1949582054439649363) 2025-07-27 21:25:57 UTC 135.2K followers, 11.4K engagements "Grep Ip's assessment of the new Trumpy global trade order 1/3"  [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) on [X](/post/tweet/1950254766652870671) 2025-07-29 17:59:05 UTC 135.2K followers, 7143 engagements "Proponents of "modern" trade accounting generally fail to differentiate between imports and in country production of foreign brands. Traditional trade accounting gets that right. China's market penetration in the US was via the parts market BTW"  [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) on [X](/post/tweet/1950007106473488866) 2025-07-29 01:34:58 UTC 135.2K followers, 7364 engagements "@robin_j_brooks Herr Brooks last I checked the GPIF has $700b in unhedged foreign assets that could be reallocated back to the JGB market which would be yen positive and JGB positive"  [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) on [X](/post/tweet/1944939969963041253) 2025-07-15 01:59:58 UTC 134.9K followers, 4575 engagements "@InfinitelyDean I think China should thus ease fiscal policy (at the center) not monetary policy -- not clear to me that lower rates work except via (possibly) the exchange rate channel"  [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) on [X](/post/tweet/1948574697089618181) 2025-07-25 02:43:05 UTC 135.2K followers, XXX engagements "Not sure the US still benefits from the strong rule of law argument not when President Trump is wielding IEEPA willy-nilly without constraint (now for tariffs but the statute is actually better suited for financial sanctions) 10/"  [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) on [X](/post/tweet/1943693554263466362) 2025-07-11 15:27:10 UTC 135K followers, 2636 engagements "(wonky) Recently I realized that the CNY fix (the daily midpoint of trading set by the PBOC set recently around 7.14) has set the de facto ceiling on CNY appreciation. And what's more when spot is close to the fix the state banks appear to be intervening . 1/"  [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) on [X](/post/tweet/1948561276583789007) 2025-07-25 01:49:45 UTC 135.2K followers, 33.1K engagements "A fringe benefit of writing a paper like this (would be interested in Mr. Balding's critique of it or if he thinks it lacks realism .) is getting to talk to people"  [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) on [X](/post/tweet/1948531989147254894) 2025-07-24 23:53:22 UTC 135.1K followers, 5999 engagements "@BlacklionCTA @Fullcarry @DerivativesDon the break wider was in April cannot read the axis labels easily"  [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) on [X](/post/tweet/1949148990173241596) 2025-07-26 16:45:07 UTC 134.9K followers, XXX engagements "China is now resisting pressure on the yuan to appreciate. That isn't (yet) the conventional wisdom but the evidence is now clear at this stage. A new blog -- 1/"  [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) on [X](/post/tweet/1945662987185836289) 2025-07-17 01:52:59 UTC 135.1K followers, 85.3K engagements "With US tariffs on imported pharmaceuticals imminent I highly recommend an early April piece by @tom_hubert of the Currency outlining how US firms in Ireland could adjust intergroup transfer pricing to reduce their declared import price/ tariff bill . 1/"  [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) on [X](/post/tweet/1949849489365164254) 2025-07-28 15:08:39 UTC 135.2K followers, 11.6K engagements "Think Mr. Balding gets the argument with China completely wrong. China wins if tariffs on non-Chinese production go from X or XX to XX or XX. The gap v Chinese production (generally tariffed at 30) falls The economic security provisions imho have been thin 1/2"  [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) on [X](/post/tweet/1949875818211004493) 2025-07-28 16:53:16 UTC 135.2K followers, 57.9K engagements "Trump wants a deal and China is willing to play ball. WSJ Looks like Trump is going to settle for a bunch of new purchases and a trumped up investment deal (which has ALWAYS been on other) that inflates the already inflated investment deal numbers 1/"  [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) on [X](/post/tweet/1948584702815945009) 2025-07-25 03:22:50 UTC 135.2K followers, 54.8K engagements "German exports are down even more -- which is part of the reason why the overall European consensus is moving . 5/5"  [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) on [X](/post/tweet/1948239775711834354) 2025-07-24 04:32:13 UTC 135.1K followers, 13.5K engagements "Foreign imports are the issue not foreign brands. Foreign imports long faced a XX% tariff which encouraged the JVs. The import share of China's market was always very low. And then no imported car EVER qualified for China's EV subsidies list 1/2"  [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) on [X](/post/tweet/1950005541134070169) 2025-07-29 01:28:45 UTC 135.2K followers, 23.2K engagements "Indeed. This coming week will be all about giving back the edge China lost with the XX% tariff by raising tariffs on most everyone else . call it the gift of Stockholm Gotta focus on the real sources of imbalances as China well is a nicely balanced high savings/ high investment economy :)"  [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) on [X](/post/tweet/1949508346312032667) 2025-07-27 16:33:04 UTC 135.2K followers, 25.8K engagements "If the current account surplus is computed using China's pre-2021 balance of payments methodology for goods (perfect backfit) and a X% return on loans/ bonds and a X% return on FDI (both ways) China's current account surplus now could be $X trillion . 6/"  [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) on [X](/post/tweet/1947846660165668944) 2025-07-23 02:30:07 UTC 134.9K followers, 2127 engagements "US steel using industries are at a real disadvantage -- It looks like Chinese steel is available for export at around $XXX a ton (half the US price) and Nikkei reports Japanese steel selling for $XXX a ton 3/"  [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) on [X](/post/tweet/1948104801281073476) 2025-07-23 19:35:53 UTC 134.9K followers, 2277 engagements "The New York Time though has done the legwork -- "American-made steel is the most expensive in the world" 4/"  [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) on [X](/post/tweet/1948105301934162243) 2025-07-23 19:37:52 UTC 134.9K followers, 2273 engagements "A deep dive -- a really deep dive some might say -- into the IMF's new External Sector Report. It is a step in the right direction but the IMF is still understating the scale of global trade imbalances and the scale of China's surplus. 1/"  [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) on [X](/post/tweet/1947717706821599289) 2025-07-22 17:57:42 UTC 135.2K followers, 47.6K engagements "Open question is what Trump is ready to give to get his new deal. @Lingling_Wei hints the US might relax export controls as part of a deal that "opens" up China (the old Lighthizer would have been skeptical of such promises . ) 2/"  [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) on [X](/post/tweet/1948585487658274915) 2025-07-25 03:25:57 UTC 134.9K followers, 9677 engagements "At a time when the global trade surplus is increasingly concentrated in China the Trump administration has spent the summer focused on raising tariffs on everyone else -- a critical error imho 1/3"  [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) on [X](/post/tweet/1950070580813635605) 2025-07-29 05:47:11 UTC 135.2K followers, 39.9K engagements "China's modern production capacity is several hundred million tons larger than during the 15-16 steel crisis making the choices for the world all the more acute 2/"  [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) on [X](/post/tweet/1948759606668255612) 2025-07-25 14:57:51 UTC 134.9K followers, 4967 engagements "@zephyr_z9 @ncsist_stan @teortaxesTex Green Jersey structures + the associated depreciation allowances on the purchase of intragroup IP by the Irish tax sub have brought effective rates down well below XXXX% (or 15%). headline rate isn't the only thing that matters"  [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) on [X](/post/tweet/1949863691534434583) 2025-07-28 16:05:05 UTC 135K followers, XXX engagements "Peak policy incoherence. He wants the trade deficit to fall and that happens largely through currency adjustment or big swings in fiscal policy . and he wants policy rates to fall to X% last I checked"  [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) on [X](/post/tweet/1946290375322226752) 2025-07-18 19:26:00 UTC 135.1K followers, 25.8K engagements "That: a) seems unlikely (Japan puts up the funds so it would almost certainly be able to veto some uses) b) would be quite problematic"  [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) on [X](/post/tweet/1948092432693789149) 2025-07-23 18:46:44 UTC 135.1K followers, 20.2K engagements ""Akazawa said that only X% to X% of the $XXX billion amount would be actual investment with the rest coming in the form of loans and loan guarantees" Treating something like 1-2% of Trump's announced investment numbers as real new money seems about right :) 1/2"  [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) on [X](/post/tweet/1949884435937050834) 2025-07-28 17:27:31 UTC 135.2K followers, 27.6K engagements "WSJ on the same deal (not the Journal's best reporting imho seems completed sourced from the White House and its allies) 2/"  [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) on [X](/post/tweet/1948803872136351891) 2025-07-25 17:53:44 UTC 135.2K followers, 11.8K engagements "& There is a deal. Details to watch: any new market access commitments from the EU (i.e. tariff reductions acceptance of US standards) & the treatment of XXX sectors other than autos (i.e. US tariff reductions down to the base tariff)"  [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) on [X](/post/tweet/1949526424584618000) 2025-07-27 17:44:54 UTC 135.1K followers, 7458 engagements "Combine weak internal demand a weak CNY & overly enthusiastic support for new sectors inside China & China ends up distorting the entire global economy. 3/"  [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) on [X](/post/tweet/1950222397400871229) 2025-07-29 15:50:27 UTC 135.2K followers, 9200 engagements "$700b a year is over X pp of US GDP/ just under $60b a month right now the incremental tariff revenue is running at $20b a month or 3/4 of a point of GDP A X percent of GDP tax would be a LOT -- and put the US economy in some jeopardy imho if introduced quickly"  [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) on [X](/post/tweet/1949581476741501233) 2025-07-27 21:23:40 UTC 135.2K followers, 50.2K engagements "Swiss pharma exports are (best I can tell) primarily from Swiss and EU companies. The US companies use Ireland and Singapore and PR (per their 10-ks) much more. So long as pharma tariffs were zero there was no disincentive to "bundling" the goods production and the IP charge"  [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) on [X](/post/tweet/1950063518394314839) 2025-07-29 05:19:07 UTC 135.2K followers, 1466 engagements "@JMourinbro Toyota and Honda hardly need JBIC to invest in the US at this stage tho . The guarantees for the risky Alaska LNG project I get doesn't other oil investment depend a bit on US breakevens and global prices would they accept lower returns than a US investor"  [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) on [X](/post/tweet/1949889767476199535) 2025-07-28 17:48:42 UTC 135.1K followers, XXX engagements "Correct. Central bank reserve accumulation is extremely correlated with a lack of private demand for US assets and pressure on non-US currencies to appreciate (which the central banks of surplus countries resist). Most people get this completely wrong even professional economists"  [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) on [X](/post/tweet/1949574891826545136) 2025-07-27 20:57:30 UTC 135.2K followers, 24.5K engagements "I actually think this is real progress. The Commission has (I hope) recognized that it can no longer make do with pretend deals that offer the illusion of progress without resolving the very real underlying problem . 1/"  [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) on [X](/post/tweet/1947519532815233444) 2025-07-22 04:50:14 UTC 135.2K followers, 121.3K engagements "My discussion of trade and currency issues with @bilalhafeez123 of Macro Hive is now up"  [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) on [X](/post/tweet/1948537319205527909) 2025-07-25 00:14:33 UTC 134.9K followers, 7032 engagements "A country (or economic block) that doesn't have an effective industrial policy of its own effectively will end up importing Chinese industrial policy and let China set the structure of big parts of its industry as Europe is discovering 4/4"  [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) on [X](/post/tweet/1950222917947588990) 2025-07-29 15:52:31 UTC 135.2K followers, 12.7K engagements "@joequant you are making the exact same analytical error as the administration imho"  [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) on [X](/post/tweet/1950073181080899895) 2025-07-29 05:57:31 UTC 135.2K followers, 1474 engagements "I framed this blog provocatively to get attention -- but also because Von der Leyen has the right instincts on China. The US should now encourage the EU to get serious about a counter industrial policy that strengthens the transatlantic economy 9/"  [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) on [X](/post/tweet/1950019980587573494) 2025-07-29 02:26:07 UTC 135.2K followers, 11.8K engagements "Think "W" once said "Fool me once shame on. shame on you. ' Fool meyou can't get fooled again" -- At CNY XXXX plus the large accumulated inflation differential US businesses generally aren't gonna be keen to produce in the US for a Chinese market that isn't growing 4/"  [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) on [X](/post/tweet/1948587552706859262) 2025-07-25 03:34:10 UTC 134.9K followers, 5852 engagements "This is all a bit nuts (it is almost all coal intensive steel as well) 1/2"  [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) on [X](/post/tweet/1944937851176563114) 2025-07-15 01:51:33 UTC 134.9K followers, 23.2K engagements "Good story on the global steel industry from Patricia Cohen of the New York Times 1/"  [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) on [X](/post/tweet/1948759216564347236) 2025-07-25 14:56:18 UTC 135.2K followers, 30.9K engagements "So Japan accepted a XX% base tariff. Wonder if got relief on the XX% auto tariff or the XX% steel tariff or any promises on the coming semiconductor tariff 1/"  [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) on [X](/post/tweet/1947806276294988046) 2025-07-22 23:49:39 UTC 135.1K followers, 40.8K engagements "The EU opted not to fight a trade war with the US (and the Commission is taking some flak as a result). China is already fighting an industrial policy war with the EU -- and winning 1/"  [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) on [X](/post/tweet/1950015215459762531) 2025-07-29 02:07:11 UTC 135.2K followers, 125.8K engagements "Americans understandably focused on the (past and present) antics of Donald Trump tend to underestimate the shift in elite European views toward China 1/"  [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) on [X](/post/tweet/1948237319955181995) 2025-07-24 04:22:28 UTC 135.2K followers, 122K engagements "Indeed. There is a great section in Apple in China describing how such schemes subsidized Honhai (and indirectly Appel) back the day. Keith Bradsher has reported on EV factories built to spec by local governments 2/"  [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) on [X](/post/tweet/1950074663184314556) 2025-07-29 06:03:24 UTC 135.2K followers, 2796 engagements "And I think there is a growing recognition inside Europe that European interests are being damaged by China's current currency policy (following the dollar down setting Monday aside) 8/"  [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) on [X](/post/tweet/1950019212610539736) 2025-07-29 02:23:04 UTC 135.2K followers, 6793 engagements "So relatively speaking China accepted a bigger tariff shift against its interests than either the EU or Japan . not much of a penalty but a bit of one. (this equilibrium goes away if the XX% fenatyl tariff is negotiated away for "purchases" of beans and Boeings) 3/3"  [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) on [X](/post/tweet/1950255484864229554) 2025-07-29 18:01:56 UTC 135.2K followers, 5390 engagements "Not really seeing a slowdown in Chinese export volume growth -- 1/3"  [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) on [X](/post/tweet/1948452938122494108) 2025-07-24 18:39:15 UTC 134.9K followers, 20.1K engagements "Have a feeling that there is a lot less here than meets the eye (or than what one hears .)"  [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) on [X](/post/tweet/1948488454108508386) 2025-07-24 21:00:23 UTC 135.2K followers, 31.6K engagements "The analytics on the XXX tariff show that a XX% tariff differential did have an impact a XXX% one not so much . and I don't get the XX% tariff on transshipment (which seemingly is a tariff on embedded Chinese content) when goods from China can come in directly at XX% . 2/2"  [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) on [X](/post/tweet/1949876197594152979) 2025-07-28 16:54:47 UTC 135.2K followers, 8278 engagements "The Trump administration clearly missed a clear opportunity to align with the EU against China -- preferring to coerce the EU into accepting XX% bilateral tariffs. 2/3"  [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) on [X](/post/tweet/1950071044171080121) 2025-07-29 05:49:02 UTC 135.2K followers, 22.3K engagements "It has been a while since CNY (spot) has traded at a more appreciated level than the fix (while CNY did trade at the weak edge of the band) . state bank intervention could be part of the reason why Curious what folks like @BobEUnlimited think here 2/"  [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) on [X](/post/tweet/1948561718696726579) 2025-07-25 01:51:30 UTC 135.2K followers, 2786 engagements "The blog summarizes my policy advice for Europe (and for the US for that matter the Trump administration still overrates tariffs on allies as a policy tool) -- for a more detailed exposition see:"  [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) on [X](/post/tweet/1950020398222864858) 2025-07-29 02:27:47 UTC 135.2K followers, 9695 engagements "There is a perception that China won by standing up to Trump and retaliating. On rare earths/ export controls that seems true. But the US tariffs on China are XX% (or XX% plus the XXX sectoral tariff) v XX% for the EU/ Japan -- & the Chinese tariffs on the US are XX% 2/"  [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) on [X](/post/tweet/1950255124435116513) 2025-07-29 18:00:30 UTC 135.2K followers, 5781 engagements "@InfinitelyDean Lots to unpack here -- China's central government debt burden is manageable; Beijing is not fiscally constrained imo (local debt and real estate debt are problems but don't fundamentally change my assessment)"  [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) on [X](/post/tweet/1948574429119737941) 2025-07-25 02:42:01 UTC 135.2K followers, XXX engagements "A chart on Ireland showing the crazy numbers there just in case proof is needed. This is XXX% US firms shifting profits on US sales abroad -- with modest spillovers to the Irish economy and very limited impact on the rest of the EU"  [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) on [X](/post/tweet/1949539410963484914) 2025-07-27 18:36:30 UTC 135.2K followers, 8879 engagements "The Chinese yuan is ever so slightly starting to appreciate against the dollar. Nothing big and from a very weak level but something to watch (chart from @Mike_Weilandt) 1/"  [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) on [X](/post/tweet/1935837436128772171) 2025-06-19 23:09:45 UTC 135.2K followers, 27.3K engagements "This excellent FT story provides the narrative to go along with the hard data -- China's localities have tremendous incentives to subsidize the production of overcapacity in new and old sectors alike. & with internal demand weak exports result 2/"  [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) on [X](/post/tweet/1950221437144617173) 2025-07-29 15:46:38 UTC 135.2K followers, 5701 engagements "@BlacklionCTA @Fullcarry @DerivativesDon confused -- numerical value looks to have increased in early april implying (i would think) a bigger gap between cash bonds and swaps (-45 to -XX bps for 10y). am i misreading this"  [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) on [X](/post/tweet/1949157177819566098) 2025-07-26 17:17:39 UTC 134.9K followers, XXX engagements "Agree We may end up in a world where the customs price is unbundled from the IP -- and thus the tariff alone isn't enough to bring the tax base back"  [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) on [X](/post/tweet/1949923238424785059) 2025-07-28 20:01:42 UTC 135.2K followers, 15.5K engagements "Well that changes the fiscal picture . The Yale Budget Lab now has a 17-18% increase in the tariff rate (before trade adjusts) which will generate well over a X pp in revenue. Rebating it changes the risk from a slowdown to sustained inflation"  [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) on [X](/post/tweet/1948764161229328648) 2025-07-25 15:15:56 UTC 135.2K followers, 34.5K engagements "Not seeing a slowdown in Chinese auto export (volumes) The second China shock isn't over (nor for that matter is the second Trump trade war . ) 3/3"  [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) on [X](/post/tweet/1948454763084804134) 2025-07-24 18:46:30 UTC 135.1K followers, 7850 engagements "@M05357916 probably modest so long as most other countries end up with XX% or more tariffs -- Mercedes and BMW aren't likely to move sedan production to the US just b/c the tariff went from XXX% to XX% . not w/o a EUR at XXX or 1.4"  [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) on [X](/post/tweet/1949536419719905419) 2025-07-27 18:24:37 UTC 135.2K followers, XXX engagements "50/50 odds are apparently considered good in Trump land let's see "I would have said we have a XX percent chance with Japan. And they kept coming back and we made a deal""  [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) on [X](/post/tweet/1949521349308735535) 2025-07-27 17:24:44 UTC 135.1K followers, 10.8K engagements "The same criticism -- writing good reports but then not doing much -- can be leveled at the US. Multiple reports detailed US vulnerabilities in rare earths/ permanent magnets and active pharmaceutical ingredients. But there wasn't much action 1/2"  [@Brad_Setser](/creator/x/Brad_Setser) on [X](/post/tweet/1950216903831552098) 2025-07-29 15:28:37 UTC 135.2K followers, 15.7K engagements
[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]
@Brad_Setser Brad Setser
Brad Setser posts on X about china, tariffs, eu, japan the most. They currently have XXXXXXX followers and XXX posts still getting attention that total XXXXXXX engagements in the last XX hours.
Engagements: XXXXXXX #
- X Week XXXXXXXXX +54%
- X Month XXXXXXXXX +71%
- X Months XXXXXXXXXX +90%
- X Year XXXXXXXXXX +3.40%
Mentions: XX #
- X Week XXX -XX%
- X Month XXX +104%
- X Months XXXXX +31%
- X Year XXXXX +2.90%
Followers: XXXXXXX #
- X Week XXXXXXX +0.27%
- X Month XXXXXXX +0.70%
- X Months XXXXXXX +17%
- X Year XXXXXXX +28%
CreatorRank: XXXXXX #
Social Influence #
Social category influence finance #996 countries #4135 currencies #1191 travel destinations XXXX% automotive brands XXXX% stocks XXXX% formula 1 XXXX%
Social topic influence china #204, tariffs #204, eu #79, japan #1036, investment #829, rates 2.05%, ireland #396, currency #114, ip #235, money #3578
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @joequant @bauhiniacapital @robin_j_brooks @glennluk @etraalex @infinitelydean @technocrtctakes @thematicmarkets @blacklioncta @iamarcivanov @jmourinbro @rambutanred @tylermacro10 @torstengellrich @kevinziyizhao @sandertordoir @kapshow @robinjbrooks @fullcarry @derivativesdon
Top assets mentioned Toyota Motor Corporation (TM)
Top Social Posts #
Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours
"The thing is that it could be a lot worse -- Chinese domestic demand for steel seems to be (still) around XXX m tons well up from the XXX m tons back in the last more modest property market slump. A ton is being used to build new factories 2/2"
@Brad_Setser on X 2025-07-15 01:53:15 UTC 134.9K followers, 7442 engagements
"I think there is a positive fiscal impulse of just under a pp of GDP from the tax cuts in the big bill (relative to a TCJA extension baseline) over the next 4qs but it increasingly seems that may be more than offset by the tariff hikes. Let's see; numbers aren't Lutnick's forte" @Brad_Setser on X 2025-07-27 21:25:57 UTC 135.2K followers, 11.4K engagements
"Grep Ip's assessment of the new Trumpy global trade order 1/3" @Brad_Setser on X 2025-07-29 17:59:05 UTC 135.2K followers, 7143 engagements
"Proponents of "modern" trade accounting generally fail to differentiate between imports and in country production of foreign brands. Traditional trade accounting gets that right. China's market penetration in the US was via the parts market BTW" @Brad_Setser on X 2025-07-29 01:34:58 UTC 135.2K followers, 7364 engagements
"@robin_j_brooks Herr Brooks last I checked the GPIF has $700b in unhedged foreign assets that could be reallocated back to the JGB market which would be yen positive and JGB positive" @Brad_Setser on X 2025-07-15 01:59:58 UTC 134.9K followers, 4575 engagements
"@InfinitelyDean I think China should thus ease fiscal policy (at the center) not monetary policy -- not clear to me that lower rates work except via (possibly) the exchange rate channel" @Brad_Setser on X 2025-07-25 02:43:05 UTC 135.2K followers, XXX engagements
"Not sure the US still benefits from the strong rule of law argument not when President Trump is wielding IEEPA willy-nilly without constraint (now for tariffs but the statute is actually better suited for financial sanctions) 10/" @Brad_Setser on X 2025-07-11 15:27:10 UTC 135K followers, 2636 engagements
"(wonky) Recently I realized that the CNY fix (the daily midpoint of trading set by the PBOC set recently around 7.14) has set the de facto ceiling on CNY appreciation. And what's more when spot is close to the fix the state banks appear to be intervening . 1/" @Brad_Setser on X 2025-07-25 01:49:45 UTC 135.2K followers, 33.1K engagements
"A fringe benefit of writing a paper like this (would be interested in Mr. Balding's critique of it or if he thinks it lacks realism .) is getting to talk to people" @Brad_Setser on X 2025-07-24 23:53:22 UTC 135.1K followers, 5999 engagements
"@BlacklionCTA @Fullcarry @DerivativesDon the break wider was in April cannot read the axis labels easily" @Brad_Setser on X 2025-07-26 16:45:07 UTC 134.9K followers, XXX engagements
"China is now resisting pressure on the yuan to appreciate. That isn't (yet) the conventional wisdom but the evidence is now clear at this stage. A new blog -- 1/" @Brad_Setser on X 2025-07-17 01:52:59 UTC 135.1K followers, 85.3K engagements
"With US tariffs on imported pharmaceuticals imminent I highly recommend an early April piece by @tom_hubert of the Currency outlining how US firms in Ireland could adjust intergroup transfer pricing to reduce their declared import price/ tariff bill . 1/" @Brad_Setser on X 2025-07-28 15:08:39 UTC 135.2K followers, 11.6K engagements
"Think Mr. Balding gets the argument with China completely wrong. China wins if tariffs on non-Chinese production go from X or XX to XX or XX. The gap v Chinese production (generally tariffed at 30) falls The economic security provisions imho have been thin 1/2" @Brad_Setser on X 2025-07-28 16:53:16 UTC 135.2K followers, 57.9K engagements
"Trump wants a deal and China is willing to play ball. WSJ Looks like Trump is going to settle for a bunch of new purchases and a trumped up investment deal (which has ALWAYS been on other) that inflates the already inflated investment deal numbers 1/" @Brad_Setser on X 2025-07-25 03:22:50 UTC 135.2K followers, 54.8K engagements
"German exports are down even more -- which is part of the reason why the overall European consensus is moving . 5/5" @Brad_Setser on X 2025-07-24 04:32:13 UTC 135.1K followers, 13.5K engagements
"Foreign imports are the issue not foreign brands. Foreign imports long faced a XX% tariff which encouraged the JVs. The import share of China's market was always very low. And then no imported car EVER qualified for China's EV subsidies list 1/2" @Brad_Setser on X 2025-07-29 01:28:45 UTC 135.2K followers, 23.2K engagements
"Indeed. This coming week will be all about giving back the edge China lost with the XX% tariff by raising tariffs on most everyone else . call it the gift of Stockholm Gotta focus on the real sources of imbalances as China well is a nicely balanced high savings/ high investment economy :)" @Brad_Setser on X 2025-07-27 16:33:04 UTC 135.2K followers, 25.8K engagements
"If the current account surplus is computed using China's pre-2021 balance of payments methodology for goods (perfect backfit) and a X% return on loans/ bonds and a X% return on FDI (both ways) China's current account surplus now could be $X trillion . 6/" @Brad_Setser on X 2025-07-23 02:30:07 UTC 134.9K followers, 2127 engagements
"US steel using industries are at a real disadvantage -- It looks like Chinese steel is available for export at around $XXX a ton (half the US price) and Nikkei reports Japanese steel selling for $XXX a ton 3/" @Brad_Setser on X 2025-07-23 19:35:53 UTC 134.9K followers, 2277 engagements
"The New York Time though has done the legwork -- "American-made steel is the most expensive in the world" 4/" @Brad_Setser on X 2025-07-23 19:37:52 UTC 134.9K followers, 2273 engagements
"A deep dive -- a really deep dive some might say -- into the IMF's new External Sector Report. It is a step in the right direction but the IMF is still understating the scale of global trade imbalances and the scale of China's surplus. 1/" @Brad_Setser on X 2025-07-22 17:57:42 UTC 135.2K followers, 47.6K engagements
"Open question is what Trump is ready to give to get his new deal. @Lingling_Wei hints the US might relax export controls as part of a deal that "opens" up China (the old Lighthizer would have been skeptical of such promises . ) 2/" @Brad_Setser on X 2025-07-25 03:25:57 UTC 134.9K followers, 9677 engagements
"At a time when the global trade surplus is increasingly concentrated in China the Trump administration has spent the summer focused on raising tariffs on everyone else -- a critical error imho 1/3" @Brad_Setser on X 2025-07-29 05:47:11 UTC 135.2K followers, 39.9K engagements
"China's modern production capacity is several hundred million tons larger than during the 15-16 steel crisis making the choices for the world all the more acute 2/" @Brad_Setser on X 2025-07-25 14:57:51 UTC 134.9K followers, 4967 engagements
"@zephyr_z9 @ncsist_stan @teortaxesTex Green Jersey structures + the associated depreciation allowances on the purchase of intragroup IP by the Irish tax sub have brought effective rates down well below XXXX% (or 15%). headline rate isn't the only thing that matters" @Brad_Setser on X 2025-07-28 16:05:05 UTC 135K followers, XXX engagements
"Peak policy incoherence. He wants the trade deficit to fall and that happens largely through currency adjustment or big swings in fiscal policy . and he wants policy rates to fall to X% last I checked" @Brad_Setser on X 2025-07-18 19:26:00 UTC 135.1K followers, 25.8K engagements
"That: a) seems unlikely (Japan puts up the funds so it would almost certainly be able to veto some uses) b) would be quite problematic" @Brad_Setser on X 2025-07-23 18:46:44 UTC 135.1K followers, 20.2K engagements
""Akazawa said that only X% to X% of the $XXX billion amount would be actual investment with the rest coming in the form of loans and loan guarantees" Treating something like 1-2% of Trump's announced investment numbers as real new money seems about right :) 1/2" @Brad_Setser on X 2025-07-28 17:27:31 UTC 135.2K followers, 27.6K engagements
"WSJ on the same deal (not the Journal's best reporting imho seems completed sourced from the White House and its allies) 2/" @Brad_Setser on X 2025-07-25 17:53:44 UTC 135.2K followers, 11.8K engagements
"& There is a deal. Details to watch: any new market access commitments from the EU (i.e. tariff reductions acceptance of US standards) & the treatment of XXX sectors other than autos (i.e. US tariff reductions down to the base tariff)" @Brad_Setser on X 2025-07-27 17:44:54 UTC 135.1K followers, 7458 engagements
"Combine weak internal demand a weak CNY & overly enthusiastic support for new sectors inside China & China ends up distorting the entire global economy. 3/" @Brad_Setser on X 2025-07-29 15:50:27 UTC 135.2K followers, 9200 engagements
"$700b a year is over X pp of US GDP/ just under $60b a month right now the incremental tariff revenue is running at $20b a month or 3/4 of a point of GDP A X percent of GDP tax would be a LOT -- and put the US economy in some jeopardy imho if introduced quickly" @Brad_Setser on X 2025-07-27 21:23:40 UTC 135.2K followers, 50.2K engagements
"Swiss pharma exports are (best I can tell) primarily from Swiss and EU companies. The US companies use Ireland and Singapore and PR (per their 10-ks) much more. So long as pharma tariffs were zero there was no disincentive to "bundling" the goods production and the IP charge" @Brad_Setser on X 2025-07-29 05:19:07 UTC 135.2K followers, 1466 engagements
"@JMourinbro Toyota and Honda hardly need JBIC to invest in the US at this stage tho . The guarantees for the risky Alaska LNG project I get doesn't other oil investment depend a bit on US breakevens and global prices would they accept lower returns than a US investor" @Brad_Setser on X 2025-07-28 17:48:42 UTC 135.1K followers, XXX engagements
"Correct. Central bank reserve accumulation is extremely correlated with a lack of private demand for US assets and pressure on non-US currencies to appreciate (which the central banks of surplus countries resist). Most people get this completely wrong even professional economists" @Brad_Setser on X 2025-07-27 20:57:30 UTC 135.2K followers, 24.5K engagements
"I actually think this is real progress. The Commission has (I hope) recognized that it can no longer make do with pretend deals that offer the illusion of progress without resolving the very real underlying problem . 1/" @Brad_Setser on X 2025-07-22 04:50:14 UTC 135.2K followers, 121.3K engagements
"My discussion of trade and currency issues with @bilalhafeez123 of Macro Hive is now up" @Brad_Setser on X 2025-07-25 00:14:33 UTC 134.9K followers, 7032 engagements
"A country (or economic block) that doesn't have an effective industrial policy of its own effectively will end up importing Chinese industrial policy and let China set the structure of big parts of its industry as Europe is discovering 4/4" @Brad_Setser on X 2025-07-29 15:52:31 UTC 135.2K followers, 12.7K engagements
"@joequant you are making the exact same analytical error as the administration imho" @Brad_Setser on X 2025-07-29 05:57:31 UTC 135.2K followers, 1474 engagements
"I framed this blog provocatively to get attention -- but also because Von der Leyen has the right instincts on China. The US should now encourage the EU to get serious about a counter industrial policy that strengthens the transatlantic economy 9/" @Brad_Setser on X 2025-07-29 02:26:07 UTC 135.2K followers, 11.8K engagements
"Think "W" once said "Fool me once shame on. shame on you. ' Fool meyou can't get fooled again" -- At CNY XXXX plus the large accumulated inflation differential US businesses generally aren't gonna be keen to produce in the US for a Chinese market that isn't growing 4/" @Brad_Setser on X 2025-07-25 03:34:10 UTC 134.9K followers, 5852 engagements
"This is all a bit nuts (it is almost all coal intensive steel as well) 1/2" @Brad_Setser on X 2025-07-15 01:51:33 UTC 134.9K followers, 23.2K engagements
"Good story on the global steel industry from Patricia Cohen of the New York Times 1/" @Brad_Setser on X 2025-07-25 14:56:18 UTC 135.2K followers, 30.9K engagements
"So Japan accepted a XX% base tariff. Wonder if got relief on the XX% auto tariff or the XX% steel tariff or any promises on the coming semiconductor tariff 1/" @Brad_Setser on X 2025-07-22 23:49:39 UTC 135.1K followers, 40.8K engagements
"The EU opted not to fight a trade war with the US (and the Commission is taking some flak as a result). China is already fighting an industrial policy war with the EU -- and winning 1/" @Brad_Setser on X 2025-07-29 02:07:11 UTC 135.2K followers, 125.8K engagements
"Americans understandably focused on the (past and present) antics of Donald Trump tend to underestimate the shift in elite European views toward China 1/" @Brad_Setser on X 2025-07-24 04:22:28 UTC 135.2K followers, 122K engagements
"Indeed. There is a great section in Apple in China describing how such schemes subsidized Honhai (and indirectly Appel) back the day. Keith Bradsher has reported on EV factories built to spec by local governments 2/" @Brad_Setser on X 2025-07-29 06:03:24 UTC 135.2K followers, 2796 engagements
"And I think there is a growing recognition inside Europe that European interests are being damaged by China's current currency policy (following the dollar down setting Monday aside) 8/" @Brad_Setser on X 2025-07-29 02:23:04 UTC 135.2K followers, 6793 engagements
"So relatively speaking China accepted a bigger tariff shift against its interests than either the EU or Japan . not much of a penalty but a bit of one. (this equilibrium goes away if the XX% fenatyl tariff is negotiated away for "purchases" of beans and Boeings) 3/3" @Brad_Setser on X 2025-07-29 18:01:56 UTC 135.2K followers, 5390 engagements
"Not really seeing a slowdown in Chinese export volume growth -- 1/3" @Brad_Setser on X 2025-07-24 18:39:15 UTC 134.9K followers, 20.1K engagements
"Have a feeling that there is a lot less here than meets the eye (or than what one hears .)" @Brad_Setser on X 2025-07-24 21:00:23 UTC 135.2K followers, 31.6K engagements
"The analytics on the XXX tariff show that a XX% tariff differential did have an impact a XXX% one not so much . and I don't get the XX% tariff on transshipment (which seemingly is a tariff on embedded Chinese content) when goods from China can come in directly at XX% . 2/2" @Brad_Setser on X 2025-07-28 16:54:47 UTC 135.2K followers, 8278 engagements
"The Trump administration clearly missed a clear opportunity to align with the EU against China -- preferring to coerce the EU into accepting XX% bilateral tariffs. 2/3" @Brad_Setser on X 2025-07-29 05:49:02 UTC 135.2K followers, 22.3K engagements
"It has been a while since CNY (spot) has traded at a more appreciated level than the fix (while CNY did trade at the weak edge of the band) . state bank intervention could be part of the reason why Curious what folks like @BobEUnlimited think here 2/" @Brad_Setser on X 2025-07-25 01:51:30 UTC 135.2K followers, 2786 engagements
"The blog summarizes my policy advice for Europe (and for the US for that matter the Trump administration still overrates tariffs on allies as a policy tool) -- for a more detailed exposition see:" @Brad_Setser on X 2025-07-29 02:27:47 UTC 135.2K followers, 9695 engagements
"There is a perception that China won by standing up to Trump and retaliating. On rare earths/ export controls that seems true. But the US tariffs on China are XX% (or XX% plus the XXX sectoral tariff) v XX% for the EU/ Japan -- & the Chinese tariffs on the US are XX% 2/" @Brad_Setser on X 2025-07-29 18:00:30 UTC 135.2K followers, 5781 engagements
"@InfinitelyDean Lots to unpack here -- China's central government debt burden is manageable; Beijing is not fiscally constrained imo (local debt and real estate debt are problems but don't fundamentally change my assessment)" @Brad_Setser on X 2025-07-25 02:42:01 UTC 135.2K followers, XXX engagements
"A chart on Ireland showing the crazy numbers there just in case proof is needed. This is XXX% US firms shifting profits on US sales abroad -- with modest spillovers to the Irish economy and very limited impact on the rest of the EU" @Brad_Setser on X 2025-07-27 18:36:30 UTC 135.2K followers, 8879 engagements
"The Chinese yuan is ever so slightly starting to appreciate against the dollar. Nothing big and from a very weak level but something to watch (chart from @Mike_Weilandt) 1/" @Brad_Setser on X 2025-06-19 23:09:45 UTC 135.2K followers, 27.3K engagements
"This excellent FT story provides the narrative to go along with the hard data -- China's localities have tremendous incentives to subsidize the production of overcapacity in new and old sectors alike. & with internal demand weak exports result 2/" @Brad_Setser on X 2025-07-29 15:46:38 UTC 135.2K followers, 5701 engagements
"@BlacklionCTA @Fullcarry @DerivativesDon confused -- numerical value looks to have increased in early april implying (i would think) a bigger gap between cash bonds and swaps (-45 to -XX bps for 10y). am i misreading this" @Brad_Setser on X 2025-07-26 17:17:39 UTC 134.9K followers, XXX engagements
"Agree We may end up in a world where the customs price is unbundled from the IP -- and thus the tariff alone isn't enough to bring the tax base back" @Brad_Setser on X 2025-07-28 20:01:42 UTC 135.2K followers, 15.5K engagements
"Well that changes the fiscal picture . The Yale Budget Lab now has a 17-18% increase in the tariff rate (before trade adjusts) which will generate well over a X pp in revenue. Rebating it changes the risk from a slowdown to sustained inflation" @Brad_Setser on X 2025-07-25 15:15:56 UTC 135.2K followers, 34.5K engagements
"Not seeing a slowdown in Chinese auto export (volumes) The second China shock isn't over (nor for that matter is the second Trump trade war . ) 3/3" @Brad_Setser on X 2025-07-24 18:46:30 UTC 135.1K followers, 7850 engagements
"@M05357916 probably modest so long as most other countries end up with XX% or more tariffs -- Mercedes and BMW aren't likely to move sedan production to the US just b/c the tariff went from XXX% to XX% . not w/o a EUR at XXX or 1.4" @Brad_Setser on X 2025-07-27 18:24:37 UTC 135.2K followers, XXX engagements
"50/50 odds are apparently considered good in Trump land let's see "I would have said we have a XX percent chance with Japan. And they kept coming back and we made a deal"" @Brad_Setser on X 2025-07-27 17:24:44 UTC 135.1K followers, 10.8K engagements
"The same criticism -- writing good reports but then not doing much -- can be leveled at the US. Multiple reports detailed US vulnerabilities in rare earths/ permanent magnets and active pharmaceutical ingredients. But there wasn't much action 1/2" @Brad_Setser on X 2025-07-29 15:28:37 UTC 135.2K followers, 15.7K engagements