[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]

# ![@Brad_Setser Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::733647469305864195.png) @Brad_Setser Brad Setser

Brad Setser, a well-known economist and blogger, has been actively discussing global economic issues, particularly China's trade dynamics and the US-China relationship. The recent focus has been on China's massive trade surplus with emerging economies and its implications. Additionally, Setser has highlighted the complexities of Argentina's economic situation, including its struggles with servicing external debt and the role of the US Treasury in stabilizing the peso.

### Engagements: XXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::733647469305864195/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::733647469305864195/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- X Week XXXXXXX -XX%
- X Month XXXXXXXXX -XX%
- X Months XXXXXXXXXX -XX%
- X Year XXXXXXXXXX +11%

### Mentions: XX [#](/creator/twitter::733647469305864195/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::733647469305864195/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- X Week XX -XX%
- X Month XXX -XX%
- X Months XXXXX +48%
- X Year XXXXX +3.40%

### Followers: XXXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::733647469305864195/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::733647469305864195/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- X Week XXXXXXX +0.14%
- X Month XXXXXXX +0.82%
- X Months XXXXXXX +6.20%
- X Year XXXXXXX +27%

### CreatorRank: XXXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::733647469305864195/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::733647469305864195/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[finance](/list/finance)  #6410 [countries](/list/countries)  XXXXX% [currencies](/list/currencies)  #1594 [stocks](/list/stocks)  XXX%

**Social topic influence**
[china](/topic/china) #1444, [to the](/topic/to-the) 7.21%, [investment](/topic/investment) #3720, [tariffs](/topic/tariffs) #658, [germany](/topic/germany) #1328, [strong](/topic/strong) 2.7%, [taiwan](/topic/taiwan) #254, [what is](/topic/what-is) 2.7%, [export](/topic/export) 2.7%, [the global](/topic/the-global) #432

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@joequant](/creator/undefined) [@jonsindreu](/creator/undefined) [@muhammadalinasr](/creator/undefined) [@stevehou](/creator/undefined) [@chenweihua](/creator/undefined) [@yanlian31677392](/creator/undefined) [@jeffis48](/creator/undefined) [@keithbradsher](/creator/undefined) [@pietroventani](/creator/undefined) [@glennluk](/creator/undefined) [@gdp1985](/creator/undefined) [@tylermacro10](/creator/undefined) [@eurobriefing](/creator/undefined) [@gregip](/creator/undefined) [@halobrief](/creator/undefined) [@rajakorman](/creator/undefined) [@sandertordoir](/creator/undefined) [@ericfine123](/creator/undefined) [@etraalex](/creator/undefined) [@captiouserer](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Goldman Sachs (GS)](/topic/goldman-sachs)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours

"And I of course think the broad surplus should have moved in line with the customs surplus -- and thus the true surplus (using China's 2022 methodology for goods) would be around $XXX trillion if not higher . 9/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1995580402749280476)  2025-12-01T19:46Z 141.9K followers, 6607 engagements


"I tend to track the trailing 12m sum when looking at China's trade so China's $X trillion surplus was old news to me . but it clearly caught the eye of headline writers 2/2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1998132276396495018)  2025-12-08T20:47Z 141.9K followers, 6257 engagements


"There are a few reasons why the tariffs haven't dented China's exports/ manufacturing based economy the first is that China's exports to Europe have boomed even as European made goods get squeezed out of China's own market 4/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1998444757941399845)  2025-12-09T17:28Z 141.9K followers, 7154 engagements


"The third is that China's real exchange rate depreciation (15-20% over the last few years) has had the expected impact on Chinese exports (standard coefficients imply a XXX to X pp increase in net exports . which materialized) 6/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1998445640032948302)  2025-12-09T17:32Z 141.9K followers, 5690 engagements


"So I worry that asserting that the IMF's preferred domestic policy mix which includes some (welcome) but demand negative policies on investment + monetary easing "will" lead to the Fund's preferred external outcome (RER appreciation) is a technocratic sleight of hand 7/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1998769122935455915)  2025-12-10T14:57Z 141.9K followers, 1818 engagements


"Striking chart from the FT's Martin Wolf. If correct hedge fund holdings of US Treasuries are approaching the holdings of reserve managers in size and growing much more quickly 1/2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1995926149025738974)  2025-12-02T18:40Z 141.9K followers, 76.8K engagements


"@EuroBriefing not at all clear Germany would lose -- it isn't as if German exports to China are currently doing well. German firms fear retaliation against their in China operations but their interests aren't the same as German interests . but parts of Germany still haven't adjusted"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1998793416415797607)  2025-12-10T16:34Z 141.9K followers, 12.5K engagements


"French President Emmanuel Macron is right to highlight that the burden China's export surplus places on the rest of the global economy is quickly becoming unbearable -- 8/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1998446568333087052)  2025-12-09T17:36Z 141.9K followers, 10.1K engagements


"Forecasts that ignored the lagged impact of RER depreciation have been consistently off. Forecasts that incorporated standard estimates of the lagged impact of a XX% plus RER move (10% = XXX pp in net exports) have been more or less right. China's recent export overperformance relative to global trade has been correlated with RER weakness; and that has been a very consistent correlation over time"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1999200749083922602)  2025-12-11T19:32Z 141.9K followers, 1098 engagements


"The puzzle of course is that China with its large surpluses over time doesn't follow the same pattern. The reported current account surplus is over $500b less than the customs surplus . 5/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1995578328439554163)  2025-12-01T19:38Z 141.9K followers, 3631 engagements


"Chinas November trade data was strong with an expected bounce back from October I get a XX% increase in export volumes in November & a X% increase in import volumes. The trailing 12m sum for the nominal surplus inched up to $1180b as well 1/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1998108936478638175)  2025-12-08T19:14Z 141.9K followers, 17.2K engagements


"Amazing pair of stats from Jens Eskelund of the European Chamber in China -- who comes from the shipping industry and knows this data cold 1/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1998131936913760274)  2025-12-08T20:45Z 141.9K followers, 14.8K engagements


"The second is that US importers and Chinese exporters have gotten around US bilateral tariffs by doing final assembly in SE Asia and Taiwan. What is sent to Saigon doesn't stay in Saigon 5/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1998445098263080986)  2025-12-09T17:30Z 141.9K followers, 7040 engagements


"Hallelujah. The IMF has recognized that China's weak real exchange rate is a problem and that it has contributed to China's export surplus and growing trade tensions. From @KeithBradsher in the NYT 1/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1998765655491817597)  2025-12-10T14:44Z 141.9K followers, 39.7K engagements


"This is the most important part of the IMF's press release -- it argues that its policy recommendations (even with the call for more monetary easing) "will" lead to real appreciation . 4/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1998767562528882938)  2025-12-10T14:51Z 141.9K followers, 2481 engagements


"In other words unless China changes how it manages its currency in radical way China's government has to actively choose to allow the yuan to appreciate -- the market is effectively a bet on where exporters and others expect the PBOC to take the yuan 10/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1998769953151840494)  2025-12-10T15:01Z 141.9K followers, 2550 engagements


"@Ov__De I assume someone somewhere put on an options trade that pays off if the CNY breaks out of its current crawl "  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1999187520165130528)  2025-12-11T18:40Z 141.9K followers, XXX engagements


"@stevehou @jonsindreu big increase in investment in manufacturing tons of robots clearly much increased capacity to produce goods closer to the technological frontier + weaker currency = export boom. needed both in a sense"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1999227489713872995)  2025-12-11T21:19Z 141.9K followers, XXX engagements


"Powerful article from @greg_ip "China is now the worlds . largest exporter but . It has never believed in balanced trade nor comparative advantage. Even as it imported critical technology from the West its long-term goal was always self-sufficiency Nice chart too 1/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1997112875752518131)  2025-12-06T01:16Z 141.9K followers, 133.8K engagements


"Exports are a big enough share of China's economy ( 20%) that two years of XX% or more export volume growth can drive an overall increase in manufacturing output even if the domestic economy is the in doldrums 3/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1998443895210868768)  2025-12-09T17:25Z 141.9K followers, 7354 engagements


"The Fund's actual policy advice is a mixed bad. I applaud the clear call for additional fiscal support for demand (an important shift from the Fund's disastrous 2024 advice). But cutting back "inefficient" investment is an offsetting negative shock to the domestic economy 6/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1998768477528572068)  2025-12-10T14:55Z 141.9K followers, 2104 engagements


"Someone should do an urgent review of all the categories of goods where China's share of global production exceeds its general share of global manufacturing (around 1/3) for weaponization risks (h/t @halobrief for the chart) 1/2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1998857284492075233)  2025-12-10T20:48Z 141.9K followers, 23.1K engagements


"@stevehou @jonsindreu CNY has never floated freely and is unlikely to float freely any time soon. the real question is how China manages it. If the CNY had been managed so as to be stronger China would have found it harder to export and imports would be more price competitive-- standard economics"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1999231044697096641)  2025-12-11T21:33Z 141.9K followers, 1201 engagements


"Didn't realize the US Treasury was in need of Argentine peso funding . live and learn (Bessent is drawing a ridiculous distinction between a swap and a bailout; what is true is that one man's rescue loan is another man's bailout -- the structure tho doesn't matter)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1988343157012967450)  2025-11-11T20:28Z 141.9K followers, 57.8K engagements


"And the FT's Big Read should raise questions at the IMF about whether or not Germany is really still a big contributor to global imbalances (exports are falling and domestic spending is set to increase) let alone a bigger contributor than China 18/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1988626677887291787)  2025-11-12T15:15Z 141.9K followers, 8886 engagements


"And it also should raise questions about the IMF's advice to China over the last X or X years which more or less was to export your way out of the property crash more aggressively (monetary easing & long-term fiscal consolidation = weaker CNY). More later 19/19"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1988627448209039544)  2025-11-12T15:18Z 141.9K followers, 7584 engagements


"And the IMF needs to clearly decide that China's problem is broader than internal deflation and too big an augmented fiscal deficit -- and stop recommending policies (in the staff report more than in the WEO) that would make China's imbalance BIGGER 6/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1988709952324792718)  2025-11-12T20:46Z 141.9K followers, 6494 engagements


"Fiscal consolidation (even if lagged) and monetary easing (read a weaker currency) is the right policy for a country running a current account deficit -- it isn't the right policy recommendation for the world's biggest surplus country 7/7"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1988710279639879997)  2025-11-12T20:47Z 141.9K followers, 5949 engagements


"Institutionally difficult now but I fail to see why Japan could not return the GPIF (the government pension fund) to its 2012 asset allocation and pocket massive profits by selling foreign assets for yen and then buying long dated JGBs . 1/2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1991681283366248957)  2025-11-21T01:33Z 141.9K followers, 76.8K engagements


"Real net exports (goods and services) have knocked X pp off German growth since the end of 2023 . France isn't doing great here either but it is in a bit better shape than Germany 1/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1993296066884911356)  2025-11-25T12:29Z 141.9K followers, 13.3K engagements


"@RajaKorman @gdp1985 This administration has already intervened in one fx market (the Argentine peso) even if it hasn't yet formally disclosed the scale of its intervention"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1994548505311154197)  2025-11-28T23:26Z 141.9K followers, XXX engagements


"It isn't apples to apples but $XX billion is Taiwan's quarterly current account surplus . ($40b over 8ys is a little over $1b a quarter by comparison) Just sayin'"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1995199407365697599)  2025-11-30T18:33Z 141.9K followers, 16K engagements


"@halobrief hedgies tho have derivative hedges so a tad less risky than the raw leverage numbers suggest"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1995965695834857616)  2025-12-02T21:17Z 141.9K followers, 1753 engagements


"Momentum for a "real" appreciation in the Chinese yuan is building"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1996028967653179840)  2025-12-03T01:29Z 141.9K followers, 50.4K engagements


"Hope the US Treasury is watching and that it still cares about currency manipulation "  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1996738958852870638)  2025-12-05T00:30Z 141.9K followers, 26.9K engagements


"And for the sake of completeness the dynamics around China's currency tend to be predictable. Appreciation creates expectations of further appreciation and exporters convert fx into CNY. That generates further appreciation pressure -- which the PBOC or the SCBs blunt"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1996739346318139568)  2025-12-05T00:32Z 141.9K followers, 6523 engagements


"a) the "supposed" import-export gap that gap is in all of the Chinese data (export and import volumes customs goods etc). what is supposed about it do tell b) what critique have I not addressed do tell c) I actually put more emphasis on the exchange rate and demand side (notably the collapse in property investment) than on supply side subsidies. if you want to criticize me do start with getting my argument right d) I generally argue not from what is good for China but from the point of view of what is good for China's trading partners (the US Germany -- see my paper with Tordoir). I do get"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1997067977783422990)  2025-12-05T22:18Z 141.9K followers, XXX engagements


"@chenweihua Do tell me the restrictions that limit China's purchases of European cars American construction equipment American and European planes and for that matter almost all but the most advanced chips. Auto chips are available w/o limit yet China still is trying to engineer them out"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1997709302468067570)  2025-12-07T16:46Z 141.9K followers, 2709 engagements


"@chenweihua And China's trade surplus is a function of its exports are well as of its absence of imports -- and nothing blocks China from letting the CNY appreciate"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1997709444617269619)  2025-12-07T16:47Z 141.9K followers, XXX engagements


"@YanLian31677392 need to calculate net exports of manufactures v total manufacturing value added in the economy. don't think the comparison above works. and in any case the global issue comes from China's outsized surplus in manufacturing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1997780190932369863)  2025-12-07T21:28Z 141.9K followers, XX engagements


"@joequant the absence of a national social safety net is precisely my point; you disagree with the argument but it is still an argument. you also oppose CNY appreciation. So what are you for other than the status quo"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1997938868000264441)  2025-12-08T07:58Z 141.9K followers, 4591 engagements


"The overall surplus on a trailing 12m basis continues to inch up towards $XXX trillion with increased exports to SE Asia (heavily parts for reexport) making up for weakness in direct exports to the US 4/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1998110482608099474)  2025-12-08T19:20Z 141.9K followers, 2278 engagements


"These are absolutely gigantic numbers The surplus with the EU for example continues to rise the 2022 pandemic surplus wasnt in turns out quite so transitory there is a reason why European leaders are starting to warn that the status quo is untenable. 5/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1998111700139303253)  2025-12-08T19:25Z 141.9K followers, 3216 engagements


"It is sort of stunning that with material conditions driving a wedge between China and other manufacturing powers the Trump Administration couldn't build a trade coalition v China. In fact it didn't even seem to try. 9/9"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1998113546945614309)  2025-12-08T19:32Z 141.9K followers, 4967 engagements


"@MacaesBruno US exports aren't exactly doing much Chinese exports are in fact eroding Europe's global market share"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1998449918134923450)  2025-12-09T17:49Z 141.9K followers, XXX engagements


"@BobP1A1 not really -- US runs a surplus ex oil"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1998454947227083190)  2025-12-09T18:09Z 141.9K followers, XXX engagements


"@MuhammadAliNasr @KeithBradsher different size of tradable sector should result in some variation . and sometimes a single variable is quite important. most trade models work well with four variables - domestic demand foreign demand the RER and oil"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1998864181093896338)  2025-12-10T21:15Z 141.9K followers, XX engagements


"Trump isn't responsible for China's pivot back to export led growth. But there was a trend break in China's surplus that corresponds with his tariffs (term 1). it is fair to say that a tariffs only approach hasn't worked. I give Trump and Lighthizer credit for a tough line on China in term X -- tho they failed to realize the limits of bilateral tariffs. I think Trump has now lost the plot TBH"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1998447981448560803)  2025-12-09T17:41Z 141.9K followers, XX engagements


"@MacaesBruno China's export volume gains globally have clearly been at Europe's expense -- see this chart based on the Dutch data worth updating a few priors here"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1998450728625455428)  2025-12-09T17:52Z 141.9K followers, XXX engagements


"@briangobosox @Richard_Casey they will hit a budget constraint with subsidies equal to XX% of exports (4 pp of GDP). Real depreciation juiced Chinese exports real appreciation will slow them -- standard empirical estimate is every XX pp on the RER = - / + XXX pp of GDP on the trade balance"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1998838883744702800)  2025-12-10T19:35Z 141.9K followers, XXX engagements


"@MuhammadAliNasr @KeithBradsher Need to convince me why the results of this comprehensive IMF assessment do not still hold"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1998860499153473788)  2025-12-10T21:00Z 141.9K followers, XXX engagements


"There is another point here -- one relevant for both @imfnews and France as they think about global trace and macro imbalances -- the current account surplus of East Asia ex China far exceeds their customs goods surplus . 3/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1995576050475303112)  2025-12-01T19:29Z 141.9K followers, 4165 engagements


"That makes sense -- a long history of goods surpluses/ current account surpluses leads to the accumulation of foreign assets and eventually significant foreign investment income ($200b for Japan) 4/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1995576437815083199)  2025-12-01T19:31Z 141.9K followers, 7802 engagements


"One answer of course is that China imports services (actually its net imports are entirely "travel" services) -- but that isn't the entire answer to the puzzle as the travel/ services deficit is only a bit over $200b 6/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1995579002002833425)  2025-12-01T19:41Z 141.9K followers, 3047 engagements


"Bottom line -- imbalances are back and concentrated in one part of the global economy. and all the countries in East Asia have very weak currencies which should make the IMF's job easy (alas the IMF tends to over complicate things . ) 10/10"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1995580949560787129)  2025-12-01T19:49Z 141.9K followers, 6044 engagements


"Important piece in the Wall Street Journal from Greg Ip building on research from Goldman and others A China that grows through exports (and that doesn't import) is a drag on most of the rest of the world economy "  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1997335804918538696)  2025-12-06T16:02Z 141.9K followers, 123.3K engagements


"Not going to disagree . 15-20% real depreciation of the yuan since XX has had predictable effects; Chinese exports wildly outperforming global trade in volume terms"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1998106236114604233)  2025-12-08T19:03Z 141.9K followers, 53.1K engagements


"Taiwan's customs surplus is rocketing up -- the trailing 12m sum looks a bit like China's surplus in autos . The November surplus was $11b and that total would be higher but for unusually strong imports. November of last year was $5b. 1/3"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1998403966661542252)  2025-12-09T14:46Z 141.9K followers, 11.7K engagements


""Strip out imports of energy food and raw materials and China is on track this year to post a surplus in manufactured goods of around $X trillion a huge sum that is on a par with the annual national income of Russia or Italy" 2/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1998443288353710416)  2025-12-09T17:23Z 141.9K followers, 11.8K engagements


"The Setser rule -- Chinese export volumes outperform global trade absent a real appreciation -- has held (and the IMF's forecasts which disregarded standard RER rules of thumb have been wildly off) 7/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1998446246713758193)  2025-12-09T17:34Z 141.9K followers, 6228 engagements


"Ford's CEO noted that "China has more than enough manufacturing overcapacity to sell to every new vehicle customer in Europe" -- China also can meet all new global demand for EVs at the margin. It is a difficult industrial and policy challenge. 2/2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1998475861033402605)  2025-12-09T19:32Z 141.9K followers, 6922 engagements


"A common -- but fundamental -- misunderstanding of current trade flows. Chinese exports are still coming to the US. They just are taking an extra stop along the way. Components go to SE Asia Taiwan and Mexico for final assembly for the US market"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1998755535659872685)  2025-12-10T14:03Z 141.9K followers, 30K engagements


"The consensus around the undervaluation of the yuan grows -- China needs though to show willingness to allow a more meaningful appreciation than allowed by the current slow crawl in the fix which barely offsets inflation differentials"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1998764172595671339)  2025-12-10T14:38Z 141.9K followers, 16.3K engagements


"The IMF's formal press statement attributes the Yuan's real depreciation to inflation differentials (nominal moves v the USD also played a role in 22/23) 3/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1998767053331664958)  2025-12-10T14:49Z 141.9K followers, 12.3K engagements


"I would go further -- the exchange rate is an independent policy tool in China (the PBOC guides the currency through the fix the state banks execute) and the IMF could have explicitly called on China to manage its currency so as to generate a real appreciation 5/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1998767946785788053)  2025-12-10T14:53Z 141.9K followers, 2614 engagements


"And right now the settlement data shows that the state banks have been actively buying FX to keep the onshore CNY from trading in the strong side of the band so there is space for the authorities to allow the yuan to move 11/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1998770309084885486)  2025-12-10T15:02Z 141.9K followers, 2682 engagements


"And of course I wouldn't have uncritically accepted the Chinese data showing a current account surplus of a bit north of X% (way up from X% at the middle of last year -- an absurdly low number -- but well below what the surplus should be based on customs) 12/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1998771433246535851)  2025-12-10T15:06Z 141.9K followers, 5501 engagements


"@joequant so long as the CNY is linked to the dollar a weaker dollar producers a weaker CNY as well"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1999169751193411977)  2025-12-11T17:29Z 141.9K followers, XXX engagements


"One slow burning but important dynamic -- The bonds that are amortizing have very low coupons. Refinancing them with 9-10% coupons thus eventually will add to Argentina's income deficit and expand the current account without trade adjustment 1/2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1999197617482264949)  2025-12-11T19:20Z 141.9K followers, 10.6K engagements


"This dynamic plays out slowly but if Argentina raises say $10b it adds a decent fraction of $1b to the current account every year all else equal. Offset in part by the impact of Fed cuts on the SDR rate and thus the interest payments to the Fund 2/2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1999198083289157697)  2025-12-11T19:22Z 141.9K followers, 4238 engagements


"@jonsindreu @stevehou not following "export more via increased investment" reduced domestic investment after the property crash has led to lower rates and did put downward pressure on the CNY but even with the current rate differential outflows aren't currently as big as the trade surplus"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1999227155918782814)  2025-12-11T21:17Z 141.9K followers, XXX engagements


"yes that happened -- and the weak CNY makes the resulting output globally competitive even as increased investment raises absorption and limits the need to export some current capacity (think about increased use of steel for building factories; which substitutes for exports . ) I didn't quite get that from your initial comment sorry"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1999230673609957818)  2025-12-11T21:31Z 141.9K followers, XXX engagements


"Brutal -- but accurate -- assessment of the results of Trump's year one policies by @wsj_douglasj and @JonathanEmont of the WSJ 1/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1998442653894013362)  2025-12-09T17:20Z 141.9K followers, 109.9K engagements


"@jonsindreu @stevehou a) China is taking market share across the board not just in the high profile sectors like EVs b) XR impacts imports too; and imports have been incredibly weak c) am very confident that w/o a weaker CNY aggregate export outperformance v global trade would have been smaller"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1999232022959534180)  2025-12-11T21:37Z 141.9K followers, XXX engagements