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[@Selwyyyyn](/creator/twitter/Selwyyyyn)
"Pretty strong Northeasterlies at 1km asl over WC Bay adj NTN/SAP favoring velocity convergence & also confluence of winds led to good rains today . ITCZ associated convergence likely to favor this spot for next 2-3 days #NEM2025 #Northeastmonsoon #TNRains #ChennaiRains #Chennai"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Selwyyyyn/status/1979240770403196972) [@Selwyyyyn](/creator/x/Selwyyyyn) 2025-10-17T17:39Z 10.8K followers, 3247 engagements


"Had SST supported this one with 28-29c this one might have been in the record book now for a monster super cyclone. Marginal SST of 26-27 constrained it highly. Atmospheric conditions were robust (Strong upper level divergence Vertical wind shear was below 5knots for X days"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Selwyyyyn/status/1979402440450421038) [@Selwyyyyn](/creator/x/Selwyyyyn) 2025-10-18T04:21Z 10.8K followers, 4024 engagements


"Models continues to show broad disturbance moving towards NTN/SAP in the next 2-3 days except GFS which remains to be an outlier by picking a different SE bay vortex. #NEM2025 #Northeastmonsoon #Chennai #TNRains #TamilNadu #AndhraPradesh"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Selwyyyyn/status/1979793212429738116) [@Selwyyyyn](/creator/x/Selwyyyyn) 2025-10-19T06:14Z 10.8K followers, 3184 engagements


"Entire col region setup moved west winds & rains would improve in the coming hours as easterlies pickingf up. More importantly Circulation seen shaping up in SW Bay adj #SriLanka Dc @BOM_au #NEM2025 #MJO #TNRains #TamilNadu #ChennaiRains #keralarains #Kerala #AndhraPradesh"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Selwyyyyn/status/1980081308476092759) [@Selwyyyyn](/creator/x/Selwyyyyn) 2025-10-20T01:19Z 10.9K followers, 2826 engagements


"GFS caving in slowly. now picking SW bay vortex . #NEM2025 #MJO #TamilNadu #TNRains #Chennai #ChennaiRains"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Selwyyyyn/status/1980090777721253946) [@Selwyyyyn](/creator/x/Selwyyyyn) 2025-10-20T01:56Z 10.9K followers, 4459 engagements


"@SaiShre43225906 Chennai will get very heavy rains for next X days"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Selwyyyyn/status/1980136691697631714) [@Selwyyyyn](/creator/x/Selwyyyyn) 2025-10-20T04:59Z 10.9K followers, XXX engagements


"@vk88288272781 @Weathernerds @NOAA Yes there is a chance of heavy rains for nellaituti during the next 24hrs .chances reduces once system gains latitude"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Selwyyyyn/status/1980252560977228155) [@Selwyyyyn](/creator/x/Selwyyyyn) 2025-10-20T12:39Z 10.9K followers, XXX engagements


"@sam_jayaraj2513 Still same trajectory disturbance being broad with lot of vortices models failed to catch this SW Bay development. However at any case it may reach ntn/sap through different route.Lets see"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Selwyyyyn/status/1980469986906059027) [@Selwyyyyn](/creator/x/Selwyyyyn) 2025-10-21T03:03Z 10.9K followers, XXX engagements


"@DarbarThalaivar system expected to brush the TN/PDC coastline to reach SAP"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Selwyyyyn/status/1980470371028726224) [@Selwyyyyn](/creator/x/Selwyyyyn) 2025-10-21T03:05Z 10.9K followers, XXX engagements


"@hartweetz as the disturbance is closer we do have possibilities of heavy to very heavy rains for next 2-3 days. Flooding rains might happen in some pockets of NTN which includes Chennai & surrounding districts as well"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Selwyyyyn/status/1980494089578787249) [@Selwyyyyn](/creator/x/Selwyyyyn) 2025-10-21T04:39Z 10.9K followers, XXX engagements


"@benking2348 No consensus. Vortex seen behaving different in different Models. Lets wait & see for next 6hrs to find the dominant vortex inside the llc"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Selwyyyyn/status/1980497698244772287) [@Selwyyyyn](/creator/x/Selwyyyyn) 2025-10-21T04:53Z 10.9K followers, XXX engagements


"Few fresh analogs for the prevailing disturbance over #SriLanka adj SW Bay. 2013 onset WML might be the close analog as it brushed the coastal areas in a similar way. If it have other ideas to develop into significant system as DD/TCthen systems in left chart could be valid"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Selwyyyyn/status/1980175678256586843) [@Selwyyyyn](/creator/x/Selwyyyyn) 2025-10-20T07:34Z 10.9K followers, 3124 engagements


"Models finding it very difficult to catch the dominant vortex. Each models having their own scripts in fixing the position . This is imd gfs forecast for next 24hrs shows disturbance as D/DD over Delta/karaikal #NEM2025 #Chennai #ChennaiRains #TamilNadu #TNRains #Puducherry"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Selwyyyyn/status/1980493073454158148) [@Selwyyyyn](/creator/x/Selwyyyyn) 2025-10-21T04:35Z 10.9K followers, 4971 engagements


"Lot of vortices seen spinning inside the ITCZ.Next 24hrs will be an interesting one in spotting the influential ones which would lead the race as a dominant vortex for the next system . Sat image Dc @Windycom #NEM2025 #MJO #NIOD #Rainupdate #WeatherUpdate #ChennaiRains #TNRains"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Selwyyyyn/status/1981169843455086801) [@Selwyyyyn](/creator/x/Selwyyyyn) 2025-10-23T01:24Z 10.9K followers, XXX engagements


"Intra-seasonal SST variability: Months back SE Arb sea was limping hard with an abnormal cooler waters ranging around 26-27c causing an atmospheric suppression with no significant cloud developments & now the same region is sizzling with 29C feeding a disturbance"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Selwyyyyn/status/1979448081557942583) [@Selwyyyyn](/creator/x/Selwyyyyn) 2025-10-18T07:22Z 10.9K followers, 3702 engagements


"ECM remains unchanged fixing it over NTN-SAP. Dates to watch out 21-23rd oct as far as Chennai/NTN rains are concerned. Once system reach 13Nmajority of the developments/convergence would be confined over SAP/Rayala. ITCZ getting dragged temporarily leaving westerlies over TN"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Selwyyyyn/status/1979801943963992160) [@Selwyyyyn](/creator/x/Selwyyyyn) 2025-10-19T06:49Z 10.9K followers, 3747 engagements


"Lot of drama during the last X days in picking the right vortex. Combination of multiple waves interaction made it complex Now SE Bay vortex gone for a toss Strong westerly burst over S Bay shaping up SW bay circulation well. Action would get intense as the cycir is nearby😍"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Selwyyyyn/status/1980126879291187263) [@Selwyyyyn](/creator/x/Selwyyyyn) 2025-10-20T04:20Z 10.9K followers, 4660 engagements


"Complex tropical wave dynamics catching up Tiny synoptic scale circulation inside a planetary wave couldn't find any room to flex her arm. It is wobbling/dancing inside the main parental Rossby wave. Tough times ahead as forecast is concerned. Most models sees some consolidation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Selwyyyyn/status/1980159013007577177) [@Selwyyyyn](/creator/x/Selwyyyyn) 2025-10-20T06:27Z 10.9K followers, 3975 engagements


"Looks like it is going to be a dramatic one Broader one brushing NTN/PDC /SAP .If it halts/slowdown there could be surprises. Fasten your seat belt. Get set for 72hrs of electrifying action #Chennai #ChennaiRains #TamilNadu #TNRains #NEM2025 #Puducherry #AndhraPradesh"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Selwyyyyn/status/1980182300748066923) [@Selwyyyyn](/creator/x/Selwyyyyn) 2025-10-20T08:00Z 10.9K followers, 7506 engagements


"Stark reminder that we are still in October where there could be summer MJO footprints with anomalous Northward propagation of rain bands. I feel this MJO episode is balancing with Negative IOD background & transition conditions. Classical eastward #MJO episodes from Mid Nov"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Selwyyyyn/status/1980256623621722268) [@Selwyyyyn](/creator/x/Selwyyyyn) 2025-10-20T12:55Z 10.9K followers, 6640 engagements


"Disturbance lies over Srilanka adj sw bay trying to consolidate & gain latitude .Moisture flow looks impressive positioned in an ideal location to cause widespread big action over coastal TN/PDC for next 48-72 hrs. On taking NW track from here It may move inland through TN/PDC"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Selwyyyyn/status/1980466387765325905) [@Selwyyyyn](/creator/x/Selwyyyyn) 2025-10-21T02:49Z 10.9K followers, 4001 engagements


"LLC seen spinning east of #Pondicherry as free from any significant convection. Continues to struggle in terms of convection. Rain bands associated with disturbance to the north seen sweeping NTN/SAP & S AP. It is expected to come closer to chennai- Mahabs during the next 12hrs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Selwyyyyn/status/1980876981819605502) [@Selwyyyyn](/creator/x/Selwyyyyn) 2025-10-22T06:00Z 10.9K followers, 4933 engagements


"On a broad continental scale synoptic disturbance close to TN/PDC continues to be in the grip of this parent rossby wave. This entire setup expected to move North in the coming days . #TamilNadu #NEM2025 #Chennai #Puducherry #AndhraPradesh #ChennaiRains"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Selwyyyyn/status/1980879095174136033) [@Selwyyyyn](/creator/x/Selwyyyyn) 2025-10-22T06:09Z 10.9K followers, 3918 engagements


"#93B LLC gained latitude now seen spinning east of Kalpakkam-Marakkanam .Weak shallow clouds whirling around the LLC. Surface Winds & rains might pickup to an extent over #Chennai when LLC interacts with Land close to chennai #NEM2025 #ChennaiRains #Chennai #TNRains"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Selwyyyyn/status/1980904153762480545) [@Selwyyyyn](/creator/x/Selwyyyyn) 2025-10-22T07:48Z 10.9K followers, 4431 engagements