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[@decenterghost](/creator/twitter/decenterghost)
"How UMA Oracle Works: The Genius of Paying People to Tell the Truth Imagine you and your friends made a bet about whether the principal would wear a blue suit to the next assembly. Problem: how do you prove it actually happened Who decides if it was really blue Who settles the argument when someone claims "that was more navy than blue" This is the oracle problem. In prediction markets millions of dollars are on the line. You need someone -or something -that can look at reality and say "yes it happened" or "no it didn't" And that someone can't be bribed can't be lazy and has to be right"  
[X Link](https://x.com/decenterghost/status/1979244074197508537) [@decenterghost](/creator/x/decenterghost) 2025-10-17T17:52Z 2017 followers, 4371 engagements


"According to @Alex_Danco now Editor-at-Large at @a16z Prediction is what comes after Postmodernism If modernism built nations and postmodernism deconstructed them into brands and narratives -the AI era builds prediction systems. Weve entered an age where everything -markets algorithms even memes -is a bet on the future Prediction replaces innovation Postmodern capitalism was built around risk and capital; prediction capitalism is built around accuracy and signal. Whoever predicts correctly wins -not just in trading but across every layer of digital life. Value itself has become probabilistic"  
[X Link](https://x.com/decenterghost/status/1977107971030368702) [@decenterghost](/creator/x/decenterghost) 2025-10-11T20:24Z 2012 followers, XXX engagements


"Polymarket: How Prediction Markets Actually Work Polymarket isn't magic it's just smart engineering. Every market runs as a smart contract -whether you're trading on elections or NFL games that code locks liquidity tracks your position and pays out automatically when results hit the chain. Fast execution transparent settlement no middlemen involved The Oracle Problem Solved The real question with any prediction market is: who decides the truth Polymarket uses UMA's Optimistic Oracle instead of trusting a single data provider. Anyone can propose an outcome and if nobody disputes it within the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/decenterghost/status/1978540750045433861) [@decenterghost](/creator/x/decenterghost) 2025-10-15T19:17Z 2005 followers, XXX engagements


"@HamosBabos @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade A very difficult match for Chelsea. In four days they will face Ajax and given the number of injured players the most important question is whether they will be able to pull through both matches"  
[X Link](https://x.com/decenterghost/status/1978890396248793554) [@decenterghost](/creator/x/decenterghost) 2025-10-16T18:26Z 2005 followers, XX engagements


"@gusik4ever @Polymarket I have an idea for a bot -it would send me the results of my bets"  
[X Link](https://x.com/decenterghost/status/1978892501026000957) [@decenterghost](/creator/x/decenterghost) 2025-10-16T18:35Z 2005 followers, XXX engagements


"@gusik4ever @Polymarket At closing. At the end of the event. By the way a bot for alerts that there's an hour two or three left until closing would also be interesting"  
[X Link](https://x.com/decenterghost/status/1978895372542963946) [@decenterghost](/creator/x/decenterghost) 2025-10-16T18:46Z 2006 followers, XX engagements


"Price truth Price is a consensus on the belief in an essence not the truth itself. And as long as participants remain unequal in access to data capital and speed this "epistemic mechanism" doesn't solve the crisis but simply reflects it on-chain A @Polymarket may indeed be an antidote to opinions but it's not a substitute for critical thinking. Price is a collective bet on what is currently considered truth. A polymarket captures not knowledge but the process of its formation -and that's precisely what makes it valuable"  
[X Link](https://x.com/decenterghost/status/1978920688283984196) [@decenterghost](/creator/x/decenterghost) 2025-10-16T20:27Z 2005 followers, XX engagements


"Building community around prediction markets makes sense because these conversations spark genuine interest in how people think about the future Someone talking about an NFL bet might lead to a deeper discussion about risk management or information asymmetry -and yeah random conversations can shift perspective Come through if you want to engage with people actually thinking about prediction markets instead of just farming engagement metrics"  
[X Link](https://x.com/decenterghost/status/1979624084121211010) [@decenterghost](/creator/x/decenterghost) 2025-10-18T19:02Z 2017 followers, XXX engagements


"@UMAprotocol @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade Thanks. I wanted everyone to understand how the oracle works"  
[X Link](https://x.com/decenterghost/status/1979255559841865883) [@decenterghost](/creator/x/decenterghost) 2025-10-17T18:37Z 2017 followers, XX engagements


"Club leagues are finally returning. And what caught my attention was the Sevilla-Mallorca #LaLiga match. Sevilla is the favorite with a win over Bara while Mallorca is in last place and has had a terrible start to the season Despite this the odds for the home match are XXX. That's a lot for such a close match. Therefore for me +EV is Mallorca AH (+0.5)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/decenterghost/status/1979355563482812579) [@decenterghost](/creator/x/decenterghost) 2025-10-18T01:15Z 2014 followers, XXX engagements


"A Brier Score of XXXXX truly speaks to Polymarket's high predictive power -the market is well calibrated and "feels" probabilities closer to reality than traditional bookmakers. But this metric doesn't make it an oracle: it measures statistical fairness not instantaneous accuracy. Polymarket doesn't predict the future -it weighs collective knowledge about it. And so far it does this better than anyone else"  
[X Link](https://x.com/decenterghost/status/1979372841607819490) [@decenterghost](/creator/x/decenterghost) 2025-10-18T02:23Z 2017 followers, XX engagements


"Robinhood adding prediction markets isn't innovation -they're just copying what @Polymarket already built and putting it in their app Polymarket proved the model works so now Robinhood wants their piece by offering the same thing to their user base But here's the catch: Robinhood requires KYC verification which means trading prediction markets on their platform isn't truly permissionless like it is on Polymarket. That's a significant friction point for users who value privacy or want frictionless access The real issue is Robinhood isn't offering anything better just wrapped in a familiar"  
[X Link](https://x.com/decenterghost/status/1979680691211137275) [@decenterghost](/creator/x/decenterghost) 2025-10-18T22:47Z 2017 followers, XXX engagements


"@enkrates Firstly this isn't really about betting. The author of the analysis has the right to sell their bet after Real Madrid scores the first goal for example Prediction markets are much broader than traditional bookmakers; several strategies can be applied here"  
[X Link](https://x.com/decenterghost/status/1979938086051025132) [@decenterghost](/creator/x/decenterghost) 2025-10-19T15:49Z 2017 followers, XX engagements


"@enkrates Then why do you think he can't win with this strategy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/decenterghost/status/1979940316980335019) [@decenterghost](/creator/x/decenterghost) 2025-10-19T15:58Z 2016 followers, XX engagements


"@turt1ebear I need some merch so I can wear it to DevConnect in November in Buenos Aires"  
[X Link](https://x.com/decenterghost/status/1980078557662457977) [@decenterghost](/creator/x/decenterghost) 2025-10-20T01:08Z 2017 followers, XX engagements