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[@burgwx](/creator/twitter/burgwx)
"My latest changes in the website were more "under the hood" - I revamped the tracking algorithm to better capture tropical waves before they become tropical cyclones which is applied to both AIFS and ICON ensembles"  
[X Link](https://x.com/burgwx/status/1979715182990631336) [@burgwx](/creator/x/burgwx) 2025-10-19T01:04Z 50.5K followers, 1732 engagements


"At this lead time it's expected to see models continue jumping all over the place though the FNV3 ensemble has had an interesting run-to-run behavior alternating between a consensus for a NE turn into Hispaniola and a lack of an ensemble member track consensus"  
[X Link](https://x.com/burgwx/status/1979715745375465765) [@burgwx](/creator/x/burgwx) 2025-10-19T01:06Z 50.5K followers, 4524 engagements


"While it's too far out to narrow down where 98L is likely to slow down or stall in the Caribbean should it occur near land major flooding would be a concern to monitor. Steering currents look to be quite weak in the Caribbean in the day 5-10 time frame & possibly beyond"  
[X Link](https://x.com/burgwx/status/1979717934714085698) [@burgwx](/creator/x/burgwx) 2025-10-19T01:15Z 50.5K followers, 3558 engagements


"I usually don't post about a new feature before it's complete but in the interest of timeliness with an uncertain path for invest 98L I've been working on implementing a 360-member grand ensemble consisting of X ensemble suites (NWP + AI). Here is its latest projection for 98L:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/burgwx/status/1980434603413499990) [@burgwx](/creator/x/burgwx) 2025-10-21T00:42Z 50.5K followers, 59.1K engagements


"Latest 0z update to the Grand Ensemble along with a breakdown of every ensemble suite included in it & percent of ensemble members per suite that detected the storm. There was a noticeable west shift in the 0z guidance with more members showing a west turn south of Jamaica"  
[X Link](https://x.com/burgwx/status/1980640002091676029) [@burgwx](/creator/x/burgwx) 2025-10-21T14:19Z 50.5K followers, 26.4K engagements


"As discussed yesterday I remain skeptical of a quick NE turn into Hispaniola. Unfortunately no NE turn would increase the likelihood of a major hurricane rapidly intensifying in the vicinity of Jamaica/Cuba and a category X or X hurricane can't be ruled out in that case"  
[X Link](https://x.com/burgwx/status/1980642275161264440) [@burgwx](/creator/x/burgwx) 2025-10-21T14:28Z 50.5K followers, 2738 engagements


"While I continue to build a full viewer for the new 360-member Grand Ensemble plots of the latest available data are now live on my website for Melissa (link below) and any other storm there is data for:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/burgwx/status/1980771507107426460) [@burgwx](/creator/x/burgwx) 2025-10-21T23:01Z 50.5K followers, 5938 engagements


"Invest 98L has been designated by NHC earlier today. The multi-model ensemble blend is in consensus with this disturbance entering the central Caribbean. from there what happens next is anyone's guess at this point. Check out more ensembles for 98L:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/burgwx/status/1979714663991632323) [@burgwx](/creator/x/burgwx) 2025-10-19T01:02Z 50.5K followers, 8467 engagements


"Objective cyclone trackers are having a tough time resolving all GEFS member tracks for invest 98L due to its disjointed segments between the antecedent open wave and subsequent surface cyclone formation. This explains why you see different GEFS tracks on different sites"  
[X Link](https://x.com/burgwx/status/1979883452515455112) [@burgwx](/creator/x/burgwx) 2025-10-19T12:12Z 50.5K followers, 20.4K engagements


"Since the default GEFS tracks from the NHC server continue to struggle identifying ensemble tracks for invest 98L I swapped it for my in-house tracker that I use for the ICON & AIFS ensembles on my website:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/burgwx/status/1980064225948319996) [@burgwx](/creator/x/burgwx) 2025-10-20T00:11Z 50.5K followers, 13K engagements


"I admittedly haven't had much time to analyze the forecast but the general gist at this point is largely split between X scenarios: X. Early development & NE turn towards Hispaniola where relatively slow motion + terrain = major floods X. Slower development more west track"  
[X Link](https://x.com/burgwx/status/1980439679884546386) [@burgwx](/creator/x/burgwx) 2025-10-21T01:03Z 50.5K followers, 13.1K engagements


"A useful application of ensemble track density is a measure of track *probability* that you can't get from an ensemble mean. While the ensemble mean shows a NE turn over Jamaica confidence in the location of the turn is low - the spread ranges from Haiti to almost Honduras:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/burgwx/status/1980774036981575956) [@burgwx](/creator/x/burgwx) 2025-10-21T23:11Z 50.5K followers, 4451 engagements