[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.] [@BeenThereCap](/creator/twitter/BeenThereCap) "The scariest items from this $SATS podcast (which is fully in my circle of competence): (1) "Everyone I know who does a lot of special sits or spectrum has been all over this situation for XX months." (2) The distressed guys are all waiting to trade it. 1/2"  [@BeenThereCap](/creator/x/BeenThereCap) on [X](/post/tweet/1937930239432159367) 2025-06-25 17:45:48 UTC 8600 followers, 4547 engagements "More details: *Trump has not announced; his people have leaked the announcement to the Financial Times. (I've read the story.) *They will add crypto gold metals and private equity/credit *401(k) managers will still need to add such funds as options for plan members to choose"  [@BeenThereCap](/creator/x/BeenThereCap) on [X](/post/tweet/1945962526715400648) 2025-07-17 21:43:15 UTC 8576 followers, 1028 engagements "Instead here is a chart of Sweetgreen $SG from 2024-2025. Decent growth story but crappy margins even if everything works. And then the story started deteriorating *modestly.* I made a lot of money shorting it even though I started too early. (Good sizing + trading.) 2/2"  [@BeenThereCap](/creator/x/BeenThereCap) on [X](/post/tweet/1945190090893844624) 2025-07-15 18:33:52 UTC 8595 followers, 1062 engagements "These $ASPI CEO comments + today's press release noting good progress on reaching commercial production on several isotopes = stock +14% Given that lately lots of speculative stocks are routinely doing +4-8% on days with no news I honestly am a bit disappointed by +14%"  [@BeenThereCap](/creator/x/BeenThereCap) on [X](/post/tweet/1945899794834043178) 2025-07-17 17:33:58 UTC 8567 followers, 4816 engagements "Fun fact: The same year that Microsoft launched Slate it launched MSNBC as a joint venture with NBC. I dont know whether its merely coincidence that both ventures became left-wing echo chambers"  [@BeenThereCap](/creator/x/BeenThereCap) on [X](/post/tweet/1946965952475656213) 2025-07-20 16:10:30 UTC 8603 followers, 1418 engagements "Today there's a poll showing Buttigieg XX% AOC XX% Newsom XX% Harris 15%. Yesterday had one showing Harris XX% Newsom X% Buttigieg X% AOC 8%. Both polls are likely very wrong. Polymarket bettors are more likely right: Newsom XX% AOC XX% Buttigieg XX% Shapiro 7%. 2/3"  [@BeenThereCap](/creator/x/BeenThereCap) on [X](/post/tweet/1946332286783238395) 2025-07-18 22:12:32 UTC 8595 followers, XXX engagements "Trump announces 401(k)s are about to be allowed to buy "crypto" with bitcoin ETFs almost certainly leading the way and bitcoin's price is up XXX% I am confident this news is not priced in and is worth 10-20% by year-end all else equal. Another 10-20% in 2026"  [@BeenThereCap](/creator/x/BeenThereCap) on [X](/post/tweet/1945959601045725310) 2025-07-17 21:31:37 UTC 8578 followers, 2011 engagements "I have a strong opinion on which of these new 401(k) options are any good: *Bitcoin funds: Highly liquid very low fees and the highest-return asset class of all time (so far) *Private equity/credit funds: Illiquid very high fees OK returns so far *Gold: Meh returns"  [@BeenThereCap](/creator/x/BeenThereCap) on [X](/post/tweet/1945966932458353044) 2025-07-17 22:00:45 UTC 8576 followers, XXX engagements "Unlike in April I am going to enjoy the next 2-3 months resolution of Trumps new tariff tantrum. Given the current legal backdrop (Trump likely loses most of his tariff power) all X major trading partners are likely to call his bluff. I can live with the interim trade war 1/2"  [@BeenThereCap](/creator/x/BeenThereCap) on [X](/post/tweet/1944086641561247816) 2025-07-12 17:29:09 UTC 8603 followers, 1070 engagements "Live video of Trump calling the MAGA Epstein-files stalwarts idiots"  [@BeenThereCap](/creator/x/BeenThereCap) on [X](/post/tweet/1946919166885114043) 2025-07-20 13:04:36 UTC 8603 followers, 1579 engagements ".reactor companies (Westinghouse Rolls Royce Holtec). The first commercially-operating SMR to be built in the U.S. will probably be the one recently announced by the Dept. of Defense - a next-gen design by $OKLO. Again not $SMR. It's never $SMR. 3/3"  [@BeenThereCap](/creator/x/BeenThereCap) on [X](/post/tweet/1943659309667168473) 2025-07-11 13:11:05 UTC 8599 followers, XXX engagements "I suspect that someone other than these X candidates has double-digit odds *today* of winning in 2028 (contrary to all the polls and betting) but I don't know which one. A lot can happen in politics in X months let alone X years. 3/3"  [@BeenThereCap](/creator/x/BeenThereCap) on [X](/post/tweet/1946332287999541566) 2025-07-18 22:12:33 UTC 8596 followers, XXX engagements "(3) "Q: This is worth more in bankruptcy than it is now like $GGP right That made many careers. A: But that's because you could buy $GGP cheap. That's not clear here." (4) Andrew without his beard looks to me like he graduated from college last month. 2/2"  [@BeenThereCap](/creator/x/BeenThereCap) on [X](/post/tweet/1937930240979857483) 2025-06-25 17:45:49 UTC 8600 followers, 1085 engagements "We are about to begin the Golden Age of Private Equity (Exits)"  [@BeenThereCap](/creator/x/BeenThereCap) on [X](/post/tweet/1946614250991964607) 2025-07-19 16:52:58 UTC 8595 followers, 1300 engagements "This announcement is even more damning to $SMR than other recent SMR design-selection announcements by customers. GE uses a legacy light-water reactor design similar to $SMR's. Everybody selecting a light-water design is choosing GE or one of the other big established. 2/3"  [@BeenThereCap](/creator/x/BeenThereCap) on [X](/post/tweet/1943659308454957393) 2025-07-11 13:11:05 UTC 8599 followers, XXX engagements "Either this is true and bitcoin's price is about to ramp to $150k now that this overhang is gone or it's false because the coins are moving into bitcoin treasury companies rather than true sales and it doesn't affect the price. Heads I win tails I don't lose"  [@BeenThereCap](/creator/x/BeenThereCap) on [X](/post/tweet/1946243769839300634) 2025-07-18 16:20:48 UTC 8594 followers, 1270 engagements "There are thousands of "investors" who bought some highly speculative stock that has tripled in the last few months and think they have nailed their company thesis. I could show hundreds of stock charts from 2020-2022 to disabuse them. But I don't need to go back that far. 1/2"  [@BeenThereCap](/creator/x/BeenThereCap) on [X](/post/tweet/1945190089501343818) 2025-07-15 18:33:51 UTC 8599 followers, 1221 engagements "At this point Polymarket should list a contract for "Vanguard to finally allow its customers with regular non-retirement accounts to buy bitcoin ETFs by XX/XX/20XX." Bonus points if it says ".and apologize for the XXX% of missed gains.""  [@BeenThereCap](/creator/x/BeenThereCap) on [X](/post/tweet/1945954020805226868) 2025-07-17 21:09:27 UTC 8576 followers, 1243 engagements
[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]
@BeenThereCap
"The scariest items from this $SATS podcast (which is fully in my circle of competence): (1) "Everyone I know who does a lot of special sits or spectrum has been all over this situation for XX months." (2) The distressed guys are all waiting to trade it. 1/2" @BeenThereCap on X 2025-06-25 17:45:48 UTC 8600 followers, 4547 engagements
"More details: *Trump has not announced; his people have leaked the announcement to the Financial Times. (I've read the story.) *They will add crypto gold metals and private equity/credit *401(k) managers will still need to add such funds as options for plan members to choose" @BeenThereCap on X 2025-07-17 21:43:15 UTC 8576 followers, 1028 engagements
"Instead here is a chart of Sweetgreen $SG from 2024-2025. Decent growth story but crappy margins even if everything works. And then the story started deteriorating modestly. I made a lot of money shorting it even though I started too early. (Good sizing + trading.) 2/2" @BeenThereCap on X 2025-07-15 18:33:52 UTC 8595 followers, 1062 engagements
"These $ASPI CEO comments + today's press release noting good progress on reaching commercial production on several isotopes = stock +14% Given that lately lots of speculative stocks are routinely doing +4-8% on days with no news I honestly am a bit disappointed by +14%" @BeenThereCap on X 2025-07-17 17:33:58 UTC 8567 followers, 4816 engagements
"Fun fact: The same year that Microsoft launched Slate it launched MSNBC as a joint venture with NBC. I dont know whether its merely coincidence that both ventures became left-wing echo chambers" @BeenThereCap on X 2025-07-20 16:10:30 UTC 8603 followers, 1418 engagements
"Today there's a poll showing Buttigieg XX% AOC XX% Newsom XX% Harris 15%. Yesterday had one showing Harris XX% Newsom X% Buttigieg X% AOC 8%. Both polls are likely very wrong. Polymarket bettors are more likely right: Newsom XX% AOC XX% Buttigieg XX% Shapiro 7%. 2/3" @BeenThereCap on X 2025-07-18 22:12:32 UTC 8595 followers, XXX engagements
"Trump announces 401(k)s are about to be allowed to buy "crypto" with bitcoin ETFs almost certainly leading the way and bitcoin's price is up XXX% I am confident this news is not priced in and is worth 10-20% by year-end all else equal. Another 10-20% in 2026" @BeenThereCap on X 2025-07-17 21:31:37 UTC 8578 followers, 2011 engagements
"I have a strong opinion on which of these new 401(k) options are any good: *Bitcoin funds: Highly liquid very low fees and the highest-return asset class of all time (so far) *Private equity/credit funds: Illiquid very high fees OK returns so far *Gold: Meh returns" @BeenThereCap on X 2025-07-17 22:00:45 UTC 8576 followers, XXX engagements
"Unlike in April I am going to enjoy the next 2-3 months resolution of Trumps new tariff tantrum. Given the current legal backdrop (Trump likely loses most of his tariff power) all X major trading partners are likely to call his bluff. I can live with the interim trade war 1/2" @BeenThereCap on X 2025-07-12 17:29:09 UTC 8603 followers, 1070 engagements
"Live video of Trump calling the MAGA Epstein-files stalwarts idiots" @BeenThereCap on X 2025-07-20 13:04:36 UTC 8603 followers, 1579 engagements
".reactor companies (Westinghouse Rolls Royce Holtec). The first commercially-operating SMR to be built in the U.S. will probably be the one recently announced by the Dept. of Defense - a next-gen design by $OKLO. Again not $SMR. It's never $SMR. 3/3" @BeenThereCap on X 2025-07-11 13:11:05 UTC 8599 followers, XXX engagements
"I suspect that someone other than these X candidates has double-digit odds today of winning in 2028 (contrary to all the polls and betting) but I don't know which one. A lot can happen in politics in X months let alone X years. 3/3" @BeenThereCap on X 2025-07-18 22:12:33 UTC 8596 followers, XXX engagements
"(3) "Q: This is worth more in bankruptcy than it is now like $GGP right That made many careers. A: But that's because you could buy $GGP cheap. That's not clear here." (4) Andrew without his beard looks to me like he graduated from college last month. 2/2" @BeenThereCap on X 2025-06-25 17:45:49 UTC 8600 followers, 1085 engagements
"We are about to begin the Golden Age of Private Equity (Exits)" @BeenThereCap on X 2025-07-19 16:52:58 UTC 8595 followers, 1300 engagements
"This announcement is even more damning to $SMR than other recent SMR design-selection announcements by customers. GE uses a legacy light-water reactor design similar to $SMR's. Everybody selecting a light-water design is choosing GE or one of the other big established. 2/3" @BeenThereCap on X 2025-07-11 13:11:05 UTC 8599 followers, XXX engagements
"Either this is true and bitcoin's price is about to ramp to $150k now that this overhang is gone or it's false because the coins are moving into bitcoin treasury companies rather than true sales and it doesn't affect the price. Heads I win tails I don't lose" @BeenThereCap on X 2025-07-18 16:20:48 UTC 8594 followers, 1270 engagements
"There are thousands of "investors" who bought some highly speculative stock that has tripled in the last few months and think they have nailed their company thesis. I could show hundreds of stock charts from 2020-2022 to disabuse them. But I don't need to go back that far. 1/2" @BeenThereCap on X 2025-07-15 18:33:51 UTC 8599 followers, 1221 engagements
"At this point Polymarket should list a contract for "Vanguard to finally allow its customers with regular non-retirement accounts to buy bitcoin ETFs by XX/XX/20XX." Bonus points if it says ".and apologize for the XXX% of missed gains."" @BeenThereCap on X 2025-07-17 21:09:27 UTC 8576 followers, 1243 engagements
/creator/twitter::308741385/posts