# ![@BeenThereCap Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::308741385.png) @BeenThereCap ₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い posts on X about stocks, bitcoin, $clmt, inflation the most. They currently have [-------] followers and [----] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::308741385/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::308741385/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [-------] +139%
- [--] Month [-------] +8.70%
- [--] Months [---------] +118%
- [--] Year [---------] -95%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::308741385/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::308741385/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- [--] Week [--] -16%
- [--] Month [---] +32%
- [--] Months [---] +54%
- [--] Year [---] -20%

### Followers: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::308741385/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::308741385/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- [--] Week [-----] +0.18%
- [--] Month [-----] +0.52%
- [--] Months [-----] +2.70%
- [--] Year [-----] -1.30%

### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::308741385/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::308741385/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[finance](/list/finance)  [stocks](/list/stocks)  [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  [countries](/list/countries)  [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands)  [celebrities](/list/celebrities)  [social networks](/list/social-networks)  [us election](/list/us-election)  [exchanges](/list/exchanges) 

**Social topic influence**
[stocks](/topic/stocks), [bitcoin](/topic/bitcoin), [$clmt](/topic/$clmt) #2, [inflation](/topic/inflation), [money](/topic/money), [$ccj](/topic/$ccj), [$plug](/topic/$plug), [$smr](/topic/$smr), [$val](/topic/$val), [uranium](/topic/uranium)

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@conorsen](/creator/undefined) [@toiletkingcap](/creator/undefined) [@hkuppy](/creator/undefined) [@zerosumgame33](/creator/undefined) [@compound248](/creator/undefined) [@johnhempton](/creator/undefined) [@buccocapital](/creator/undefined) [@winsteadscap](/creator/undefined) [@rampcapitalllc](/creator/undefined) [@jebus](/creator/undefined) [@bonecondor](/creator/undefined) [@cornelialake](/creator/undefined) [@hedgefundgirl](/creator/undefined) [@apkramar](/creator/undefined) [@praisekek](/creator/undefined) [@varianceswap](/creator/undefined) [@mattlevine](/creator/undefined) [@jeffmacke](/creator/undefined) [@upslopecapital](/creator/undefined) [@mike59655549](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/bitcoin) [Cameco Corporation (CCJ)](/topic/$ccj) [Plug Power, Inc. (PLUG)](/topic/$plug) [NuScale Power Corporation (SMR)](/topic/$smr) [Validity (VAL)](/topic/$val) [Ethereum (ETH)](/topic/ethereum) [NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA)](/topic/$nvda) [Spirit Airlines, Inc. (SAVE)](/topic/$save) [Tidewater, Inc. (TDW)](/topic/$tdw) [ASP Isotopes Inc. (ASPI)](/topic/$aspi) [Strategy (MSTR)](/topic/$mstr) [Centrus Energy Corp. (LEU)](/topic/$leu) [Micron Technology, Inc. (MU)](/topic/$mu) [TeraWulf Inc. (WULF)](/topic/$wulf) [Sweetgreen Inc. (SG)](/topic/$sg) [Grayscale BTC ETF (GBTC)](/topic/$gbtc) [Freeport-McMoRan Inc (FCX)](/topic/$fcx) [Oklo Inc. (OKLO)](/topic/$oklo) [AST SpaceMobile, Inc. Class A Common Stock (ASTS)](/topic/$asts) [Nexstar Media Group, Inc. Class A Common Stock (NXST)](/topic/$nxst) [Solana (SOL)](/topic/solana) [Xponential Fitness, Inc. (XPOF)](/topic/$xpof) [Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE)](/topic/$ethe) [Planet Fitness, Inc. (PLNT)](/topic/$plnt) [Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)](/topic/$tsla) [Cleveland-Cliffs, Inc. (CLF)](/topic/$clf) [Scorpio Tankers Inc. (STNG)](/topic/$stng) [MemeCoin (MEME)](/topic/$meme) [LGI Homes, Inc. (LGIH)](/topic/$lgih) [dogwifhat (WIF)](/topic/dogwifhat) [Amkor Technology Inc (AMKR)](/topic/$amkr) [Morgan Stanley (MS)](/topic/morgan-stanley) [AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. (AMC)](/topic/$amc) [Reserve (RSV)](/topic/reserve)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"People are now using existing home sales volumes to gauge housing market strength. This is yet another error of confusing supply effects with demand effects (as with used car prices or lumber). Most existing home sales have homeowners selling their old home and buying a new one"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1527639231761358850)  2022-05-20T13:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Different pieces of the "housing market" will perform very differently w/ higher rates: -Mortgage originators/brokers: massive declines -Real estate agents Zillow: medium declines (existing-home sales) -But homebuilders & suppliers: volumes fine as supply constraints ease"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1534221172925255680)  2022-06-07T17:10Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"The 1-month fall in all commodities prices is now the 3rd largest in [--] years behind only the Covid and GFC collapses. This goes well beyond fundamentals: Crowded-trade unwind cross-ownership contagion forced deleveraging and trend-following in an illiquid summer market"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1544724978763014144)  2022-07-06T16:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"I love that $DWAC filed this with the SEC. When the Truth deal with its super-toxic PIPE was first announced I assumed the stock would eventually plummet to $10 either b/c the SEC would deny the application (b/c of the PIPE) or b/c it would approve it and the PIPE would kick in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1572592524199628802)  2022-09-21T14:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Crypto payments are really going mainstream here: Stripe has enabled USDC payments on the Braintrust freelancer network to [---] countries. https://stripe.com/newsroom/stories/braintrust-crypto-payouts https://stripe.com/newsroom/stories/braintrust-crypto-payouts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1573086838864101376)  2022-09-22T23:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"I just learned that thanks to China's mega-tech meltdown its largest public equity market cap now belongs to Kweichow Moutai Co. a maker of adult beverages. The US-investor knowledge ratio for Kweichow vs. Tencent or Alibaba is somewhere between 1:20 and 1:100"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1577306960407498757)  2022-10-04T14:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Here's an interesting year-end-type chart: The [--] mega-cap internet platform stocks vs. S&P [---] over the last [--] years. To me the rough overall story is: [--]. They have roughly given back the multiple inflation from years of 0% interest rates"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1604908854789406720)  2022-12-19T18:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"I am a "sharp legal source." I haven't read these briefs yet but I know the case and facts and relevant law and (partly as a result) I own $ETHE. It's definitely possible despite the extraordinarily strict standard to prove an agency decision was "arbitrary & capricious." UPDATE: There is a possibility that the @Grayscale $GBTC and spot #Bitcoin ETF case makes its way to the Supreme Court here in the US. **sharp legal sources are impressed with the @Grayscale brief in front of the DC Circuit and believe a win is possible. UPDATE: There is a possibility that the @Grayscale $GBTC and spot"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1618993218787606528)  2023-01-27T15:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Here is the YTD chart for $NOPE compared with $SQQQ the ProShares -3x Short Nasdaq-100 ETF. Effectively $NOPE is (for now) a -4x or -5x stock index ETF"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1621596107028500482)  2023-02-03T19:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"The long-copper thesis is half demand (the world electrifies to reduce carbon emissions). And half supply (new mines will not come close to keeping up with demand growth.) Part of the supply thesis is that it's *incredibly* hard to open a new mine. Just in the last week: 1/6"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1623396203986575360)  2023-02-08T18:59Z [----] followers, 16.6K engagements


"regularly makes members answer a survey at the daily log-in: How many bargain stocks are you finding - many average or few At the October bottom: 9% "many" 60% "few" Now: 12% "many" 58% "few" Value investors are macro chicken-littles. http://ValueInvestorsClub.com http://ValueInvestorsClub.com"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1630302071550353410)  2023-02-27T20:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Tonight in crypto. Tetranode's graphic drives home the feeling more than my trading screen's numbers do. The idiotic media are saying it's b/c of the Silvergate news. Really With a 27-hour delay"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1631508115895058433)  2023-03-03T04:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"I made this chart for Mrs. BeenThereCap while discussing how consistently & imaginatively Credit Suisse has mismanaged itself in so many different arenas. $100 of $JPM stock from early [----] is now worth $340. $100 of $CS is now worth $5. Most of the divergence came after 2009"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1634364497392484352)  2023-03-11T01:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"On that new near-infinite liquidity to banks via loans on Treasuries & RMBS: The Fed is really going all out valuing it at par and margining at 100% of par. Thanks to higher interest rates fair market value for most of that collateral is 85-95% of par"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1635054531376726016)  2023-03-12T23:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"I have nothing to add to the discussion so far this morning apart from the 3-day charts (including extended trading hours) for the next two regional banks in the firing line $FRC (-67% today) and $WAL (-75%). "Not contained.""  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1635272369941143552)  2023-03-13T13:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$VAL "now with 100% less smugness." I don't care if oil prices have dipped & a recession might further hurt prices temporarily; offshore rig rates will keep rising on anything but a months-long time frame and offshore service stocks are a buy. I bought a bit more at a new low Bought this dip last week. Feeling pretty smug about it. Got $63.61. It's a new position sort-of. I owned $VAL years ago so I didn't need to do much new work. I thought tankers would be better than offshore rigs for the last [--] months and I was right. Now it's offshore's turn https://t.co/V84ARpHkQm Bought this dip last"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1635278358148972545)  2023-03-13T13:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"On bitcoin's YTD chart I can no longer point with confidence to when any of the government's key crypto-related actions occurred. Bitcoin don't care. Binance/CFTC Coinbase/SEC Kraken staking Signature Bank White House white paper OCC "risky crypto" stmt (Am I forgetting any🙄)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1641065093617139712)  2023-03-29T13:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"This trade is working out rather well. $GBTC is still at a 33% discount to NAV. Closing the gap would generate another 50% gains from today = another 73% from my purchase price if bitcoin's price stays flat. I don't think bitcoin's price will stay flat"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1645442732788269061)  2023-04-10T15:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Boy do I hate $SBGI Sinclair Broadcast Group. Terrible capital allocators. Terrible flaunters of regulations which caused regulators to block their Tribune acquisition. And creators of a poor man's Fox News across their TV stations. (Don't worry I hate MSNBC also.) 🤖 this is extremely dangerous to our democracy 🤖 https://t.co/yZNmugdGFr 🤖 this is extremely dangerous to our democracy 🤖 https://t.co/yZNmugdGFr"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1646553103552921602)  2023-04-13T16:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Here is the scorecard on how $SGBI management has done over the past decade compared to my beloved $NXST. Cucks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1646553105788465153)  2023-04-13T16:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$DHI full-year revenue guidance range is 12-17% above the consensus estimate. A year ago I was pounding the table that investors were far too bearish on homebuilding stocks despite rising mortgage rates. Time to take a victory lap. Here is the homebuilders ETF vs. the S&P 500"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1649056675268276229)  2023-04-20T14:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"For you non-crypto folks who haven't seen this yet: I bring you the Pepe coin a new (last month) meme coin. No utility no value support mechanism anonymous devs. Its price of $0.00000285 is up 1000% in a week 4000% in a month and gives it a $1.1B market cap"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1654475292923011088)  2023-05-05T13:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Core CPI: All items excl. food & energy "Super-core" CPI: Core excl. shelter "Super-duper core" CPI: Super-core excl. used vehicles Super-duper core is finally looking good. Chart from @jasonfurman"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1656297433079455744)  2023-05-10T13:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"The final 'super-core" CPI measure the one that the Fed highlights is core *services* ex-shelter. That one did even better than goods+services; it printed at 0.11% MoM which is 1.3% annualized"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1656301637760167936)  2023-05-10T14:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Just saw someone re-use the lovely evergreen "what does $USPT do exactly" You silly person it does AI. Kill me now. How many companies can try to sex up their business by cramming references to AI into their earnings calls Apparently all of them. My mediocre small-cap oil & gas producer is currently talking about using AI in its oil pumping. Kill me now. How many companies can try to sex up their business by cramming references to AI into their earnings calls Apparently all of them. My mediocre small-cap oil & gas producer is currently talking about using AI in its oil pumping"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1656339234813247492)  2023-05-10T16:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"This times series is a decent proxy for the shift in nuclear power opinions throughout Western Europe & North America. Not in absolute terms though. Denmark is lagging with "only" 49% positive. China Russia and developing-market countries were ahead of this curve. #uranium"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1656700303381610496)  2023-05-11T16:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"😂Chief Congressional crypto-hater Brad Sherman knowing Grayscale is now likely to win its appeal of the SEC's rejection of its ETF application launches a pathetic anticipatory flanking maneuver. I wonder if Gensler & his staff asked Sherman to and wrote these questions. 😂"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1657066672539287552)  2023-05-12T16:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@hkuppy I guess I'm still too ignorant to have been surprised by $500k after being out of drillers for years and just buying coming back in 1Q. Like why *wouldn't* the out-year number be $500k given the supply/demand setup 🚀🚀 Which is why I bought more $VAL all the way down"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1658207552893509632)  2023-05-15T20:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


".and a higher profit hurdle rate for potential uranium mine projects in other frontier countries to account for the risk that's just been highlighted Uranium stock prices continue to move on other (dumb) things. Lately it's "oil & gas down ➡ sell energy ➡ sell uranium." 4/4"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1663652370415341571)  2023-05-30T21:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"My child joined $PLTR last fall. Got a $7.75 valuation for their next [--] years of stock comp. I said then "one can never know but your stock pricing timing is likely to be excellent." Yep. But I only guessed [--] of the [--] reasons: *Market bottom *Profitability inflection *AI play"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1665848502881222656)  2023-06-05T22:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"I do not want a VR headset any time soon and I am not buying $AAPL at a $3T valuation. But if you care about tech at all Ben Thompson's analysis of the Apple Vision is a must-read. Apple has likely cracked the code for the next big user interface. https://stratechery.com/2023/apple-vision/ https://stratechery.com/2023/apple-vision/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1666119345255374848)  2023-06-06T16:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Turkish lira entering hyperinflation phase. That sharp retrace in late [----] was when the government defended it *by guaranteeing an exchange rate floor for new bank deposits.* I.e. the government now has a giant and ballooning short-USD position"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1666444348022480908)  2023-06-07T13:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"This is bear-porn chart crime. BofA's title is a lie. If a big demand spike reverts to *normal* YoY growth turns from highly positive to negative. I can look at this chart & envision the more useful chart of absolute demand volume. It looks benign *slightly* below pre-covid"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1667157179705458688)  2023-06-09T13:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"I'll repeat what I said [--] months ago: I have never before seen an investment's fundamental bull case improve as much as uranium's has over the last [--] months while the price stayed flat. In the last [--] weeks the price has started to rise"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1668245443879346176)  2023-06-12T13:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"There are a lot of potential under-the-hood looks at stock reactions to the Fed right now but I think about all you need is: S&P [---] flat Internet/software mega-caps flat $NVDA +3.5% Because $NVDA. Good grief"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1669060842648641550)  2023-06-14T19:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Now this is interesting. China bans purchases of Micron $MU chips by key companies. Micron responds by.promising to invest another $603m in China Its senior managers are *very* good. I wonder what's going on behind the scenes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1669551868488343552)  2023-06-16T03:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"I am as bullish on bitcoin & crypto on a 1-2 year time frame as I have been since April [----]. More pieces keep lining up: [--]. Timing of the usual bitcoin/crypto 4-year cycle. The next halving is a year away. The next peak is likely [--] years away. 1/10"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1671154825168584706)  2023-06-20T16:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"With that caveat: Based on past cycles and the changing landscape since the last cycle I think bitcoin has a strong chance of topping $100k this cycle. ETH should have similar or higher gains. Some altcoins would strongly outperform as usual; others will still die. 9/10"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1671154843942289413)  2023-06-20T13:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"If bitcoin does 4x to $100k and Grayscale gets its ETF conversions so it can close the $GBTC and $ETHE discounts to NAV $GBTC would do 6x and $ETHE 8x. I own some of those on top of my crypto. 10/10"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1671154846404333570)  2023-06-20T13:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Victory lap I said 6-8 months ago while most were still homebuilding bears that home *sales* metrics would bottom in the spring and new home *starts* by mid-year. Right on schedule: May housing starts surged by the most ever"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1671164239644614656)  2023-06-20T14:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"This crypto exchange launch is another bullish driver for crypto. And potentially a *very* bearish one for $COIN. The SEC and some other federal agencies - under current management that is - basically hate all crypto and would kill it if they could 1/10"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1671197710764978188)  2023-06-20T16:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"This development highlights why $COIN's business potential has been halved or worse. The SEC sued it for being an unregistered securities exchange. The technical problem is the failure to file the registration papers. 5/10"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1671197718566383626)  2023-06-20T16:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Let's say you manage a traditional financial institution that wants to trade bitcoin for yourself or your retail customers. And say you do trust Coinbase. (I think you should; I'm a 10-year customer). Even so: Why would you *not* use EDX instead 9/10"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1671197726724194310)  2023-06-20T16:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"My friend @AndrewRangeley just posted a $COIN short thesis based in part on this logic. He's right on that piece. But that headwind will likely be fighting a huge crypto-rally tailwind. (See my other thread today.) $COIN goes in my "too hard" pile. 10/10"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1671197728695627783)  2023-06-20T16:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"LOL I take full credit for today's rally. Bitcoin +5% $GBTC +13% $ETHE +15%. More seriously this was only my second public bullish-crypto call in two years. The other was within a day or two of the $16k bitcoin bottom last November"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1671225790552240128)  2023-06-20T18:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"It has been an action-packed day for crypto in the U.S.: *Launch of a new securities-law-friendly exchange by Citadel Fidelity & Schwab *WisdomTree becomes the third ETF heavyweight to pile on with a new spot-bitcoin application *DCG gets multiple offers to buy Grayscale 1/3"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1671291902946168838)  2023-06-20T23:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"*3rd Circuit Court of Appeals maintains jurisdiction over Coinbase's petition to force some rulemaking out of the SEC *Crypto $GBTC and $ETHE prices fly higher in response 2/3"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1671291905223663616)  2023-06-20T23:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Bitcoin now +10% in the [--] hours since my bull thread. $GBTC snaps back to its [----] high +120% YTD (which is less than NVDA TSLA or META). The chart's green line is the avg price for my buys while I was listening to the Grayscale vs. SEC appellate oral argument on March 7"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1671528102046978055)  2023-06-21T14:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"(1) I have now lost count of how many new spot-bitcoin ETF applications have been filed in the last week. (2) The proposed ticker is hilarious. (3) But also perhaps not the wisest choice if you actually want your application approved"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1671608576094109697)  2023-06-21T19:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"It's been a while since the last "country X is pivoting towards more nuclear power" - because we ran out of countries almost all have done so now. Here's one. Sweden (which already has old nuclear plants running) will now subidize some new ones"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1671617314641330177)  2023-06-21T20:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Today's winner is . . . Bitcoin Cash +30% This chart is YTD. +67% in [--] days. Just because Citadel's new crypto exchange will list it I unwillingly own some because it's trapped in the Mt.Gox bankruptcy. It's just as useless as Dogecoin or Pepe Coin without the meme value"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1672294012449898497)  2023-06-23T17:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Over time - i.e. on average - the dominant answer obviously should be "average." But it's always "few." Even worse: There should be *some* occasions when the # of bargains rises to "many" for most value investors. It never gets close. 2/3"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1673350138071339011)  2023-06-26T15:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"At last October's bottom when the market was littered with single-digit earnings ratios "many" stood at only 12%. This survey doesn't ask whether the market is near its bottom merely whether you can find bargain stocks. If you couldn't find many *then* you never will. 3/3"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1673350139593777155)  2023-06-26T15:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"The $AMKR $NVDA AI news was "public" two days ago but the stock didn't pop until today. Because there's "public" and then there's "published in Digitimes." I sure didn't see it until today"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1673797181914984449)  2023-06-27T20:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Joe doesn't know what Bidenomics is but the rest of us do. It's a new surge in deficit spending - which always "works" during the spending year. The consequences come later. Lol Biden at a rally earlier this month while explaining Bidenomics: "I don't know what the hell that is. But it's working" Lol Biden at a rally earlier this month while explaining Bidenomics: "I don't know what the hell that is. But it's working""  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1674098207909871619)  2023-06-28T16:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$MU earnings this afternoon. I have owned it for years. The stock is doing fine. The business will be fine. Investors (mostly) know to look through industry down-cycles. We have to - b/c look at the massive downward revisions to earnings estimates for [----] *and* [----] *and* 2025"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1674113638070726656)  2023-06-28T17:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"This guy's (terrible) proposition is that a highly cyclical stock is uninvestible at any price during a cycle trough. Actual memory chip investors know better. The cycle trough is the *best* time to buy. $MU's FebQ was the trough; the stock bottomed in late December"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1674183646553538563)  2023-06-28T22:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@JohnDoss1 Yes I have run a business. How long do you think $MU will have negative gross margins What is your forward estimate of $MU's average gross profit margin across the next full industry cycle I'll give you a hint: average forward *net income* puts the stock at 6x earnings"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1674192116279386115)  2023-06-28T23:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"There were really only two anti-nuclear countries left Belgium and Germany. One down one to go"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1674408434786074624)  2023-06-29T13:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"I have no idea what the end game might look like in the U.S.-China semiconductor Cold War. The U.S. controls most of the advanced technology and can cripple China. But China makes half our chip-using electronics & controls key raw materials. Its mutually assured destruction"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1675859477008924675)  2023-07-03T13:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"This is why $GTN is now my #2 favorite stock. Like $CCL & $DAL it is a highly levered cyclical whose price was in the toilet due to recession/debt risks. Unlike them $GTN has an imminent guaranteed FCF gusher from election ads. Unlike them its stock hasn't budged. Yet. Levered travel stocks are useful because the risk was recession would come before activity normalized and they could convert FCF to debt pay downs. The risk of that outcome has plunged also explains why $DAL is up almost 50% in less than two months: https://t.co/5nnqpFoPrk Levered travel stocks are useful because the risk was"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1676679223249870848)  2023-07-05T19:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"As the #uranium demand news improved even more over the last month (multiple countries had nuclear plant announcements) spot price drifted *slightly* lower (it shouldn't & doesn't track long-term demand forecast changes) and the Sprott $SRUUF momo monkeys totally bailed again"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1678429381537021952)  2023-07-10T15:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Amazing. This paint job upgrades the Cybertruck's look from "ridiculous" in its original DeLorean Silver (IMHO) to.very cool. I'd bet $TSLA can charge big $$ for this option. I still think it will take very few customers away from say Ford's base of existing F150 owners"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1678863775280111616)  2023-07-11T20:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@NickTimiraos From @TheTerminal: MoM core goods CPI was *zero.* (No orange in the final bar.)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1679117595553808384)  2023-07-12T13:16Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Eyeballing the raw data in the BLS table I see two standouts: *Core goods MoM was zero largely because used autos was -0.5% *Shelter MoM using the backward-looking methodology is still showing +0.4%. (And yet the core #s including shelter are great.)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1679118808852643842)  2023-07-12T13:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"It has been a very good [--] months for the "2023 soft landing is the base case" crowd which has included me since Feb. [--]. This is the market price over time of the "2023 recession" future on Kalshi the predictions marketplace"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1679190504229961729)  2023-07-12T18:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"My own odds for a [----] recession remain at 50% which is number-speak for "totally uncertain." Those odds have fallen a little over the last [--] months but not a lot. Fed rate hikes really do act with a "long and variable lag.""  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1679203052153126914)  2023-07-12T18:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Oil $CCJ and now $ETHE breaking out (+15% today)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1679536051872751616)  2023-07-13T16:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"I think #5 will probably be overruled on appeal. #4 has decent odds of being overruled on appeal. And those won't matter much to crypto as a whole. Because it's #2-3 that destroys the SEC's jurisdictional reach. 8/9"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1679571641632784387)  2023-07-13T19:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Under just #2-3: ETH (+6% today) is clearly not security even if the initial ETH sales were. None or almost none of Coinbase's (+22%) listings are securities. If Ripple isn't a security almost no token is even if their initial fund-raises were investment contracts. 9/9"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1679571643599912960)  2023-07-13T19:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"For those paying attention the U.S. inflation glide path has been clear since January. The GDP growth path cleared [--] months ago. Same for the Fed's hikes path. Thus interest rates after yanking us around for [--] months have settled back into very low volatility. Blessedly so"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1684575843132260354)  2023-07-27T14:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$SPHR owns that amazing new MGM Sphere in Las Vegas. My first use of this meme"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1685007782079082496)  2023-07-28T19:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"I have not seen a single comment here or elsewhere about $VAL's triply-good press release yesterday: [--]. They got a new contract for one of their *inactive* rigs (i.e. going from cash drain for maintenance costs to strong profits). [--]. The price is $364m for [---] days (2.3yrs) 1/2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1686410688317607936)  2023-08-01T16:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Subtract another 10% from $EXPE on this chart for today's move. All the people who could have owned any lodging stock and chose $EXPE https://t.co/fTdhDE8AEW All the people who could have owned any lodging stock and chose $EXPE https://t.co/fTdhDE8AEW"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1687094631991836672)  2023-08-03T13:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"I remember a year ago when 30-year mortgage rates first hit 6% $LGIH management explained the new sales pitch to prospective buyers this way (paraphrased): "Sure rates are now 6% and they used to be 3%. But if you buy now you cap your monthly payment forever." 1/2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1687200809531101184)  2023-08-03T20:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


""If you rent your rent will keep rising. Home prices could keep rising. Mortgage rates could go to 7-8%. But your mortgage won't change. And if rates ever fall you can refinance lower." Some FitTwitters ridiculed this argument. It has already proven 100% correct. 2/2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1687200811800219650)  2023-08-03T20:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"My addition: "new stimulus" likely means new *housing* stimulus to prop up that bubble possibly also other infrastructure which would boost commodity prices. We'd get lower Chinese import prices *and* higher commodity prices. Those [--] effects are only partially in opposition 3/3"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1689264635587796992)  2023-08-09T13:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Info update: the China "consumer price deflation" news is a bit overdone. The declines were mostly in food. Core inflation (ex-food/energy) was +0.8% the highest since January and up from +0.4% in June"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1689278707662213121)  2023-08-09T14:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Consensus for CPI is - as I have predicted for a full year would happen right about now thanks to the lagging shelter-inflation metrics catching up to reality - "inflation is done." Core MoM 0.2%. Great We made it But: There is no room for a bullish surprise tomorrow"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1689387081850560513)  2023-08-09T21:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Remember back when the Fed's Jackson Hole meeting mattered It's [--] days away and almost nobody cares. The rates path hasn't seemed this clear since 2015"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1691500462187356171)  2023-08-15T17:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"As China slides into either recession or stagnation keep this in mind:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1692183551360340177)  2023-08-17T14:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"The start of a typical work day for two professional investors on opposite sides of a trade. Not true for the retail-investor crowd. Nor for the pros who for example pump iffy battery stocks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1692198669708124492)  2023-08-17T15:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"The Great #Uranium Inventory Restocking Panic of 2021-2030 just inflected upwards. The doubling of spot prices in the last [--] years is nothing compared to history and what's to come. Here are the 2-week 3-year and 16-year charts for spot prices. 1/4"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1692592903275630963)  2023-08-18T17:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Wow $ENVX management announces an at-the-market stock sale *now* Missing their best window of opportunity by [--] weeks is going to cost them big bucks. @compound248 $ENVX Shareholders last week: A shelf is not an offering. Management last week: Having a shelf is just good housekeeping. It doesnt mean well issue stock. Me: Theyd be insane not to sell overvalued stock given they need the money. Now: 🤔 https://t.co/MGY6TL7XfO $ENVX Shareholders last week: A shelf is not an offering. Management last week: Having a shelf is just good housekeeping. It doesnt mean well issue stock. Me: Theyd be"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1692681454436675933)  2023-08-18T23:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"This thread is excellent work. I had not seen this point before. No position and I wish Coinbase well"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1694000908114477087)  2023-08-22T14:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Here's the problem with shorting $COIN. What % odds do you need to put on the following 2-year scenario to make $COIN undervalued today: *bitcoin's price does 4x altcoins 10x *transaction volumes 2x *$COIN's revenues 10x profits 20x I'd bet the actual odds are higher"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1694028983862485360)  2023-08-22T16:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Victory lap I am on vacation and very much not working. But I did just read the DC Circuit's opinion in Grayscale v. SEC. It is a total win for Grayscale. My $GBTC from oral argument day is up 75% so far"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1696570580592455970)  2023-08-29T17:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Here is the surprising graph through [----] that Google fed me as I looked into this issue. Again the GDP #s for [----] are $31k for Czechia $19k for Hungary. Clearly the GDP divergence is not Orbn's fault. 4/3"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1698705093929914862)  2023-09-04T14:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Saw a tweet recently marvelling that $MNST market cap is more than $AAL $DAL & $UAL combined. I can agree to marvel but also perfectly understand why: Most airlines are terrible businesses from an owner's viewpoint. (Cyclical capital-intensive quasi-commodities.) 1/2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1699088655887773993)  2023-09-05T15:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Yet front-month (Oct) futures are stuck at $2.60 While Nov. is $3.00 15% higher Way above typical the seasonal contango. Last winter I thought the huge futures price cliff from February to April was nuts. I was right; late-winter prices collapsed & the cliff vanished. 2/3"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1699385723353231574)  2023-09-06T11:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"This time I have no clue whether October will rise or November will fall but we should get one or the other. 3/3"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1699385725081227327)  2023-09-06T11:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Woohoo Announcements to build or restart nuclear plants make me grimly satisfied ("about @#$%ing time."). This announcement makes me affirmatively happy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1699527777320382881)  2023-09-06T20:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"This is symbolically a very big deal. Several bills have been introduced in Congress to streamline the highly onerous and ridiculously lengthy process for nuclear plant approval. None are close to passage. But the regulators are taking the hint and doing some streamlining now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1700184388451930138)  2023-09-08T16:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@ThHappyHawaiian @conorsen Lower wage growth which will flow through most categories"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1700209499389202488)  2023-09-08T18:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"I was mostly-offline on vacation when @compound248 dropped this excellent thread so I just now saw it. I'm as deep as him on these issues but he explained it to you in detail and I didn't. Worth reading now even though Charter just caved (right on schedule)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1701254360259285004)  2023-09-11T15:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@compound248 Agree - if those two bullet points accurately describe the entire detail then I would say Charter caved. But also if so -- more importantly for my TV station stocks -- the bundle is really really really saved"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1701255996952252703)  2023-09-11T15:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@PythiaR @TidefallCapital @SleepwellCap It's not a retailer. It's an experience marketer. And a very high class stock promote"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1702049457552990422)  2023-09-13T19:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$NXST management made a great point at BofA today about why in part the traditional pay-TV bundle has flipped from eroding to restrengthening: All these streaming services (ex-NFLX) were birthed when interest rates were zero & companies were rewarded for growth at any cost 1/2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1702080147220795846)  2023-09-13T22:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"That environment is gone for the foreseeable future. And all these streaming services (ex-NFLX) lose money. Now investors are forcing media companies to make money again or have a better plan to do so. Rebundling is probably the best way. Disney+ w/ads on Charter is The Way 2/2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1702080148785311995)  2023-09-13T22:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@conorsen The baseball will be good. Some of the big-budget usual suspects are out. The new scrappy low-budget small-ball fan-favorite teams are in. If we end up with Dodgers-Astros again: Never mind"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1702302868596834328)  2023-09-14T12:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Ya'll #uranium-heads are watching spot prices on the Numerco site right Bid/ask up $2 today on top of $1.50 yesterday"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1702351710390268267)  2023-09-14T16:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"We've made it #uranium fam I could see immediately that the U3O8 spot price is chart #2 in FT Alphaville's weekly "guess these charts" contest Congratulations to all (NOTE: Fake enthusiasm. Sort of.)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1702673404657111213)  2023-09-15T13:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"They have flat-out told him they will not even honor their contractual store-openings commitments because of this issue and that he can easily fix it with pricing. He has refused. He thinks $10/month is his own $1.50 Costco hotdog legacy. 4/6"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1702685274709631109)  2023-09-15T14:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"He's taken half-measures in pricing and they aren't enough. The 2Q earnings call was mostly about this issue. I'll bet you anything - well the amount of stock I just bought - that the CEO was forced out largely over the pricing dispute & "new CEO" means "new pricing." 5/6"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1702685276684894531)  2023-09-15T14:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"I assume the short-term news will be a bad 3Q or a guide-down. But it's likely good news on even a slightly longer term. Pricing will get raised and the franchisees will re-commit to openings. Things will be OK. 6/6"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1702685278471626769)  2023-09-15T14:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Good grief. $PTON's CFO sold shares on Friday at $5.12. Sure she says the sale was to cover the tax liability from vesting RSUs. But I'm also sure she could have scraped together the $52k in cash from elsewhere if she thought the shares were a bargain"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1703786804048965998)  2023-09-18T15:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Wait - so us oldsters' (lived through 1999-2001) do-no-work analysis of "it's v.2" actually was correct Shipping dog food still sucks even if your customers love you $CHWY http://Pets.com http://Pets.com"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1703905376838508879)  2023-09-18T22:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"The U.S. economic outlook for [----] is still unusually certain but the next quarter looks as certain as it has been in years. All the macro releases lately have been in-line non-events with gentle trends - CPI employment GDP PMIs even Fed meeting announcements"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1704123690613461135)  2023-09-19T13:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


""The auto strike will spike used car prices again" is the most overblown investor and general economic consensus I have seen in a while. The "Big 3" have 40% U.S. market share. The UAW is striking a minority of their plants. The strike will likely last weeks not months. 1/4"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1704153637939716242)  2023-09-19T15:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Compare that to Covid: The supply problems hit 100% of automakers and lasted [--] months. Meanwhile auto loan deliquencies are at 11-year highs and today new $KMX data shows that auto loan losses are now starting to rise. 2/4"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1704153639554625577)  2023-09-19T15:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Max is offering a new live sports package called B/R sports (Bleacher Report) with NBA NHL NCAA March Madness MLB and U.S. Soccer. Free for Max subscribers through Feb'24 then $10/month. I don't get it - how is B/R or $WBD getting the rights to all these games"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1704240990188380198)  2023-09-19T21:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"After a long period of underperformance vs. most #uranium stocks $KAP is quietly having itself a great month. $CCJ still leads by a mile for YTD 2023"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1704504840846446637)  2023-09-20T14:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Wow the Fed did manage to surprise a bit. The last box is the key one. Two [----] rate cuts removed from the median forecast"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1704559263715086413)  2023-09-20T18:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"I'm going to time-stamp this today just in case I ended up bottom-ticking it: I bought my first-ever $SAVE at yesterday's close. Odds are high that Jetblue wins next month's antitrust trial and closes on its acquisition. 100% upside if so far less downside if not"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1704580772345102794)  2023-09-20T19:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$ARM is [--] cents above its IPO price. $CART is [--] cent above its IPO price. It shouldn't matter to anyone not trading them but it does"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1704875402210996683)  2023-09-21T15:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@cupofcoffeecap Yes I am aware thanks. Difficult cancellation policies are a perennial background fact for the entire gym industry especially low-cost gyms and are a bad short-selling thesis. They aren't fraudulent or illegal. The worst incident allegations are limited or false or both"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1704996971281297412)  2023-09-21T23:12Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"When I look at my stock portfolio which mostly has free cash flow yields of 10-25% I am pretty chill about the 10-year yield rising from 4.3% to 4.45% this week"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1705207017755853223)  2023-09-22T13:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"If you really want to track likely #uranium supply you need to read articles like this one. 1/2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1705216015901069355)  2023-09-22T13:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Because the left map shows the conflict area and the right map shows the hoped-for route for #uranium shipments from Kazakhstan to the west. 2/2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1705216017885172135)  2023-09-22T13:42Z [----] followers, 24.1K engagements


"3. Deciding how to price better is relatively easy once you make it an issue of serious study. But most of all: [--]. Most senior managers price too low. They overly fear the optics of shedding customers. They overestimate the demand elasticity. 4/n"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1705303647230259536)  2023-09-22T19:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"And they have a poor intuitive sense of how gaining 100% profit on the added price can so easily outweigh losing the incremental gross margin on the leavers (because you shed their costs as well as revenues). 5/n"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1705303648694149123)  2023-09-22T19:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$CART IPO price: $30.00 $CART 1st-week closing price: $30.00 Nice job Goldman desk you earned your fee"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1705311811413647523)  2023-09-22T20:03Z [----] followers, 10.8K engagements


"Ho hum. Another day another $2 jump in the #uranium spot price"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1705321027931119993)  2023-09-22T20:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@willis_cap Sooooooo the ridicule cutoff should be [--] minutes instead of [--] I remember learning the tower stocks in [----]. Fixed escalators was pretty early in the pitch"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1705330429035675764)  2023-09-22T21:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"If you declined your Connecticut friends offer of an umbrella your phone might not even respond to your touches as you stand in the rain trying to google how to get into Manhattan. Yes we know your friend in Manhattan friend would love to host you prior to new flight out. 2/8"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1707872616080421177)  2023-09-29T21:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"OF COURSE Taxi/Uber/Lyft is not within the realm of possibility. Helicopter No. The random next bus that comes by is a terrible option because it has a 100-person capacity and [---] people knife-fighting to get on. 4/8"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1707872617917546650)  2023-09-29T21:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"I'm calling it: I'm now as bullish stocks as I've been in [--] weeks. (I nailed the bottom last October.) *Small-caps back near lows *Many valuations good again *Sentiment back to bearish *Fed signalling no more hikes Stocks can do well if macro is merely less bad than feared. 1/2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1708947722424782967)  2023-10-02T20:51Z [----] followers, 54.3K engagements


"Here is the 2-year chart for the Russell [----] small-cap index (so no boost from the [--] huge megacaps or the AI bubble). What a crappy crappy [--] years. Lots of built-up energy for gains on even modest good news. It's still headed down so I may be a bit early. I don't care. 2/2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1708947723997569445)  2023-10-02T20:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"More supporting bullet points: *Economy is slowing modestly but still OK. Fears are for a recession "within a year" - just like most of the last [--] months *Long-duration interest rate spike is likely near done *The trend-following trading robots have already sold near max 3/3"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1708952845607735520)  2023-10-02T21:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"NY Giants: Panicking b/c their $160m QB is losing badly NE Patriots: Panicking b/c their 1st-round QB looks horrid NY Jets: Past panic. The plan to ditch their horrid #2-pick QB vaporized in [--] plays Solution: The entire Northeast should root for the Chiefs for the next [--] years"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1708975349244064139)  2023-10-02T22:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Me for most of 2023: Of *course* growth is "surprisingly" strong. Have you seen the federal government deficit #s Massive overspending (a/k/a Bidenomics) always "works" in the short term. This rates spike/panic is part of the long-term bill coming due faster than expected. 1/3"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1709239317275586946)  2023-10-03T16:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"What bond-yield-spiking data was released at 8:00 Eastern time that isn't even on my macro calendar"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1709913192321745278)  2023-10-05T12:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$BALY - Panic At the Casino I don't know it well am not short & will not buy. $460m market cap $3000m of debt when investors are dumping every casino/gambling stock & freaking out over debt. Plus I'm hearing that initial traffic is bad at their new downtown-Chicago casino"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1709958275926561093)  2023-10-05T15:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"I have absolutely no clue whether an employment report beat (more jobs than expected) tomorrow morning will drive stocks higher (economy's doing fine) or lower (interest rates higher for longer). Same for a miss. Best outcome might be in-line"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1710036192283037840)  2023-10-05T20:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"🎤 A $PXD buyout for thee How 'bout $VTLE for me Put that management team Out of its misery"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1710258698084401446)  2023-10-06T11:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"We don't even need to find another buyer. Exxon Mobil $XOM could tuck-in $VTLE using scraps from the $PXD deal-closing table. "If you liked $PXD you'll love $VTLE at half those valuation multiples""  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1710260428108943693)  2023-10-06T11:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


".and the answer is: A screaming-hot pro-growth jobs number (+336k vs. +160k consensus) is bad Bad At least the *initial* answer. The day is young. I have absolutely no clue whether an employment report beat (more jobs than expected) tomorrow morning will drive stocks higher (economy's doing fine) or lower (interest rates higher for longer). Same for a miss. Best outcome might be in-line. I have absolutely no clue whether an employment report beat (more jobs than expected) tomorrow morning will drive stocks higher (economy's doing fine) or lower (interest rates higher for longer). Same for a"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1710271832111153329)  2023-10-06T12:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Stocks might be correct about the interest rate implications being more important than the growth implications. But front-month oil futures also fell and that is inarguably stupid on the fundamentals. The market is still flushing out more overextended longs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1710273811445109188)  2023-10-06T12:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Stock traders might calm down in coming hours as they digest the lower wage inflation and higher employment participation rate (unemployment rate ticked up)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1710274837573144990)  2023-10-06T12:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Oh come on FT Alphaville. You claim you are "lifting the difficulty bar" on your weekly chart quiz and then you choose *this* as one of the charts Any Alphaville quiz-taker who doesn't immediately know this one - today of all days - isn't paying any attention to markets"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1710290103786987772)  2023-10-06T13:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"LOL it only took [--] hours for me to be wrong about being wrong about stocks deciding they were wrong to dive on the employment-report"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1710307866307878928)  2023-10-06T14:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Double-LOL. I am fairly proud of this waffling thread. Investing is about uncertainties and probabilities. Nothing is more uncertain than short-term market-wide moves. I pay attention to them only because they give useful hints about larger longer-term moves"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1710322474917806513)  2023-10-06T15:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$NXST just published a new investor slide deck. Unlike most company's decks it's well worth reading by anyone interested in the broader television business and particularly local TV stations. $NXST has the best management team in media. 1/3"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1711395484336832937)  2023-10-09T14:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"They understand what in media truly has value why how they can take advantage of it and how to explain it to others. This deck ably lays out the case for why local TV station businesses should continue to thrive despite the perpetual investor fears on that subject. 2/3"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1711395485955588295)  2023-10-09T14:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"There are no new arguments/insights in here for me; I have been listening to $NXST make its case for [--] years. Even for me the slide deck backs up all the arguments with extensive up-to-date clearly presented numbers and charts. 3/3"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1711395487272608218)  2023-10-09T14:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Financial markets are partially self-correcting; a big move in one component causes a reaction in another component that eases the former's effect. As I've said for weeks higher long-duration rates enables lower short rates (Fed Funds). The rates futures market now agrees. 1/2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1711746648907387350)  2023-10-10T14:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"For the sake of the world I would love to be able to conclude that Iran didn't. It would be great if Iran were not that terrible and any form of retaliation by US or Israel although necessary/justified will make the world a worse place. 3/6"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1712130945384419402)  2023-10-11T15:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Even merely enforcing existing US sanctions will spike oil prices which will hurt US & EU economies and help Russia fund its war against Ukraine. The Biden administration would desperately love to avoid that as we head into the election year. 4/6"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1712130947657667049)  2023-10-11T15:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Huh I was wrong about something important. Thanks Cliff. No practical implications for my current portfolio. The growth/value spread remains stupid. It's no less stupid just because its recent correlation to interest rates is also stupid"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1712482442328805408)  2023-10-12T14:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"I was thinking the exact same thing as I watched asset prices drop on a perfectly fine CPI report. My addition was/is: It's true even though higher rates don't matter much for a lot of consumers & businesses. Moods are infectious and the financial markets have moods"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1712499994173862377)  2023-10-12T16:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Here you go @conorsen something that is at least "a" reason for today's rate puke via Nick the Fed Whisperer. Core services CPI ex-shelter a/k/a super-core CPI a/k/a JPow CPI is disappointing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1712579362283810827)  2023-10-12T21:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Here is John Authers's chart of the super-core CPI month-over-month change. September was quite bad in context"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1712800259284353243)  2023-10-13T11:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"It's amusing to watch the non-lawyers in crypto get so excited about the SEC's non-appeal of its Grayscale loss. Today is worth little in the battle for a bitcoin ETF. The SEC had no hope of winning en banc or at the Supreme Court. 1/2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1712960185700892883)  2023-10-13T22:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"The real issue is whether SEC will find new excuses to deny Grayscale's & others' applications or somehow delay the process for years more. I want a bitcoin ETF as much as you own tons of bitcoin + $GBTC & $ETHE as a litigation play. So believe me: y'all should calm down. 2/2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1712960187693211813)  2023-10-13T22:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Today's Venezuela "deal" is the biggest geopolitical eye-roller I've seen in a while. It's obvious to everyone that Maduro won't honor a promise of fair elections. The U.S. administration simply wants more oil pumped; Maduro gave the U.S. a fig-leaf excuse to allow it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1713929360049115378)  2023-10-16T14:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Crypto twitter this morning: An obviously-likely-false report/tweet that the SEC approved a spot bitcoin ETF Credulously shared across CT as true Quickly denied by the ETF sponsor And then the icing on the cake: Multiple bad CT takes on this series of events 1/2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1713968940852932807)  2023-10-16T17:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"No the bitcoin price didn't hold the fake-news gains. (OK $200 of them.) No this isn't evidence for the SEC that bitcoin's price is manipulated. Fake news is not the kind of manipulation at issue. No $2000 on a spot ETF approval wasn't & isn't a surprisingly large move. 2/2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1713968942522241244)  2023-10-16T17:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"More on the "evidence of manipulation" issue: THEM: Today gives the SEC evidence that bitcoin's price can be manipulated US: That's dumb. The SEC's argument is unregistered exchanges enable direct price manipulation. This is just fake news. It happens routinely with stocks 3/4"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1713993362460541417)  2023-10-16T19:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"THEM: But the SEC hates crypto so it will use the dumb argument. US: So what The SEC now routinely makes dumb arguments most of Congress scoffs at them and the courts routinely reject them. 4/4"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1713993363953684953)  2023-10-16T19:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"OK one more: THEM: But bitcoin's price jumped 10%. 10% on fake news is a lot US: Now you're just arguing that bitcoin's price is volatile. So what. Individual stocks sometimes spike far more than 10% on fake news. Bitcoin's market cap is 1/4th that of the largest stocks. 5/5"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1713994778361118879)  2023-10-16T19:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Wait - Ryan Gosling can time-travel"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1714005527489818763)  2023-10-16T19:48Z [--] followers, [----] engagements


"This may be the single worst historical-analogy markets argument I have ever seen. I wonder whether these guys truly have no idea what has been going on with $SCHW. In [----] $SCHW is effectively a regional bank with a deposits/funding problem"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1714410881939919071)  2023-10-17T22:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"#oil is back above $88 in evening trading. It may go higher in short order. Today's Israel-related events are bad. Odds seem 50% that the source of the hospital explosion was an errant Islamist rocket not an IDF bomb. (Errant rockets have hit Gazan victims for decades.) 1/2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1714417353692266974)  2023-10-17T23:05Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"But - and this is the particularly bad part - the Palestinians and Israel's neighbors aren't waiting for clarity. The Palestinian president has cancelled his meeting with Biden. Jordan has cancelled the summit with Biden it was to host. This may be the start of escalation. 2/2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1714417355499970804)  2023-10-17T23:05Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$FCX management on its earnings call just provided another tangible example of higher inflation & rates restricting economic growth. I paraphrase & condense: "The copper price needed to induce producers to green-light new mines to meet the coming big growth in demand. 1/2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1715023923211813070)  2023-10-19T15:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$TLT is Treasury bonds with a super-high duration (20 years) and no credit spread to cushion that rates risk. It's -50% in [--] years. But no bond investor holds only those. How about a diversified fund of govvies corporates and RMBS with an avg. 6-year duration Still -24%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1715353903099695477)  2023-10-20T13:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Victory lap My gains on my purchase of $GBTC during the Grayscale v. SEC oral argument just passed 100%. 1/3 of the gains are from the underlying bitcoin price 2/3 from $GBTC's smaller discount to NAV. My thesis included both pieces; the latter was the reason to buy that day"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1715364282672566637)  2023-10-20T13:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"I am watching some examples of debt-leveraged small-cap companies getting crushed by higher interest rates. Here's a recent refinancing of senior notes maturing in [----]. Old fixed rate: 5.5% New floating rate: SOFR (5.3% today) + 8.0% spread = 13.3% They R screwed. Except: 1/2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1716454817567039571)  2023-10-23T14:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"(1) The equity is already priced for near-death down a ton in the last year. (2) They're going to sell assets in [----] to pay down most of that new debt. (3) The EBITDA on the remaining biz is likely to grow a ton in 2024-2025. No I'm not going to tell you which company. 2/2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1716454819731316736)  2023-10-23T14:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"When interest rates rise: Small-caps underperform because they have more net debt. When interest rates fall: Small-caps underperform because a recession is coming"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1716514557571609028)  2023-10-23T17:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"It has been months since I've had a reason to mention bitcoin's price. It just hit a new YTD high. YTD returns: Bitcoin +91% Ethereum +43% And thanks to their NAV discounts shrinking: $GBTC +109% $ETHE +161% (And yes I *did* buy a lot of $ETHE last Nov-Dec.)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1716550247323725963)  2023-10-23T20:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"YTD gains are 107% for bitcoin vs. "only" 52% for ethereum. Bitcoin is about to get a spot ETF; ethereum isn't. Also we're still in Phase [--] of the typical cycle. Ethereum will get its ETF later and the cycle will progress. I'm long both. h/t @Bonecondor for the chart"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1716826379587907641)  2023-10-24T14:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"The EV market will be stagnant and disappoint expectations for the next [--] years. Existing battery technology leaves range anxiety inadequate charging networks and dying battery packs as real issues. Car makers are running out of early-adopter buyers who don't care. 1/4"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1716899268181770477)  2023-10-24T19:27Z [----] followers, 56K engagements


"Today GM abandoned its EV sales target for [----]. Other OEMs are making similar noise. But wait there's more: Toyota this week confirmed that EVs with *much* better batteries are on track to start prod'n in [--] years. WHICH WILL MAKE ALL EXISTING EVs BADLY OBSOLETE OVERNIGHT. 2/4"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1716899270262173887)  2023-10-24T19:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"The practical and $ value of any current EV will plummet. Why in the world would you buy one today when it takes [--] years to overcome the higher up-front cost & higher initial fossil-fuel energy-use deficit and then it's [--] years until doomsday on a hoped-for 15-year asset 3/4"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1716899272174829952)  2023-10-24T19:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"It is not coincidence that the $CVNA and $ENVX charts look so similar. Shitco growth-tech story stocks that are favorites for both retail pumpers and short sellers. The short sellers have been winning for a while. I added $IWM to show that the declines are not merely beta"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1717910294343626938)  2023-10-27T14:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@Biohazard3737 Define "best." I have [--] oil & gas investments spread out across the industry. Different ones will outperform in different reasonably-likely scenarios. The one with the highest upside if things go well is an offshore rig biz. You can throw a dart: $DO $NE $RIG $SDRL $TDW $VAL"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1717922564792586384)  2023-10-27T15:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"I have fully exited another one of my very few short positions $ENVX for large % gains across all my entry points. It could go to zero or go back to $24 depending mostly on the overall market's animal spirits. A -200%/+100% risk/reward is bad even though is more likely"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1719010203436290134)  2023-10-30T15:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"It's been [--] months since I tweeted about expected future used-car deflation. The future is now: The used-car wholesale price index still needs to fall 13% to get back to pre-Covid inflation-adjused trend There is no reason it needs to stop at trend. 1/3"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1719082975919309035)  2023-10-30T20:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Bloomberg: Hedge Funds Pile Into Uranium Stocks. Other outlets have similar stories. I would be worried about the short-term risk/reward if it were true but its false. Both miners and $SRUUF have been lagging the rise in #uraniums spot price. 1/3"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1719125858403631196)  2023-10-30T22:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Wow. I am an $LGIH bull and even I am surprised by its great 3Q results & guidance given mortgage rates have spiked to 8%. *Closings and revs +13% YoY *Gross margins massively beat expectations +370bps QoQ (but down YoY) *EBIT margin +320bps QoQ *EPS beat consensus by 30% 1/3"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1719324750059540614)  2023-10-31T12:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"It should be obvious to everyone that the Fed will do & say nothing. So the obvious "correct" stock-index move in reaction is 0.0%. Unlike other times there shouldn't even be any risk premium in prices that bleeds out afterwards. Yet somehow probably stocks are going to move"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1719758446411571711)  2023-11-01T16:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"We learned a few minutes ago that the SBF lawyers will finish their closing arguments today. The jury will begin deliberations tomorrow. I will be genuinely disappointed if they don't return a guilty verdict by end-of-day tomorrow"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1719830112604975311)  2023-11-01T21:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$SEDG is going to gap down 20% to $60 tomorrow on its terrible earnings. They make DC inverters for solar power installations. No businesses benefitted from 0% interest rates more than those enabling super-trendy capital expenditures with long payoff periods. 1/2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1719840660214223166)  2023-11-01T22:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"This point is optically clever but substantively dumb. Markets are saying today that 4.7% 10-year yields and 7.5% mortgage rates are 2% better for asset values than 5.0% and 8.0% were. If Powell were forced to comment he'd say that 4.7% and 7.5% are still plenty tight"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1720126228072378424)  2023-11-02T17:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"(3) 4Q is already deteriorating. Guidance is for *a decline in units sold *non-GAAP gross profit per unit of "$5000" (vs. $6396 in 3Q). It will likely fall sharply given the industry trends and smaller loan sales *"positive" adjusted EBITDA which is worth squat 4/x"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1720219817016168948)  2023-11-02T23:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$CVNA's 3Q "adjusted EBITDA" of $148m once you add back the very real costs it excludes yielded a $108m GAAP pretax loss. 4Q will be worse. (4) The used-car & car-loan markets are likely to worsen past 4Q. See this short thread: 5/x https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1719082975919309035s=20 https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1719082975919309035s=20"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1720219818874351906)  2023-11-02T23:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$CVNA will not go bankrupt in [----] because its debt restructuring converted the interest from cash payments to PIK and pushed out the maturities -- at the cost of much higher interest rates and adding security interests. So $CVNA will rapidly be digging itself a deeper hole. 6/6"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1720219821407711719)  2023-11-02T23:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"I want Biden's list of all the World Series Champions who had it handed to them"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1720470443776196783)  2023-11-03T15:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"The strong implication of the newly public evidence that DCG committed multiple frauds and news that federal prosecutors are gathering that evidence: Grayscale will be sold to a more credible ETF sponsor. The SEC won't approve ETF applications from a clear fraudster. 1/2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1721974880483119558)  2023-11-07T19:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"But it will approve them from Blackstone. I am guessing that implication explains why the $GBTC & $ETHE discounts to NAV have kept closing recently. $ETHE's discount in particular is at 19% today a 19-month low from 59% in December. (The chart is through yesterday.) 2/2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1721974882177618273)  2023-11-07T19:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"I just watched to the $ENVX earnings call. I was short very profitably but I remind you that it is a real pre-revenue company with real product prospects and a serious chairman and management team. No BS on that earnings call. I'm impressed. Huge contrast with say $CVNA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1722024714598592833)  2023-11-07T22:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"An example showing that the future is unknowable and difficult to forecast/guess: In January I said that $CLMT was my favorite holding for [----]. YTD it's my portfolio's 2nd-worst performer at -24%. My actual [--] best performers are Grayscale trusts & uranium stocks up 50-210%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1722335757770056044)  2023-11-08T19:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Friends don't let friends buy SPACs of pre-revenue tech start-ups even if they are nuclear power. $SMR is -25% after-hours on news that its only credible committed customer cancelled. -50% in [--] weeks -80% in a year. [--] months of cash at current burn rate no revenues in sight"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1722388782505239012)  2023-11-08T23:01Z [----] followers, 20.6K engagements


"Now that so many of my favorite stocks (i.e. large positions) have ripped 20-30% higher in [--] weeks what is my new favorite stock That's easy. It isn't even close. $SAVE. It has fallen 40% in [--] weeks (from $16 to $9.50) despite only modest changes to its expected outcomes. 1/9"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1724520464641364287)  2023-11-14T20:11Z [----] followers, 65.4K engagements


"So the highly-oversimplified outcome tree is: 70% trial success odds less 5% deal break/recut odds less 5% Dept.-of-Transportation blockage odds = 60% success odds. 60% x ($30.00-9.50) success profit = $12.30 40% x ($4.00-9.50) failure loss = -$2.20 =$10 expected profit 8/9"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1724520477178151243)  2023-11-14T20:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"That's a 100% expected return in [--] months i.e. an annualized IRR well north of 400%. But with a material risk of permanently losing 60% in [--] minutes on one bad news headline and potentially riding it to zero if you try to hang on after that. Size accordingly 9/9"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1724520478792888691)  2023-11-14T20:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Trying to find a good GIF for "theta decay." Not satisfied yet"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1724575940410257719)  2023-11-14T23:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Isn't $SMR now the world's easiest short thesis *Their only credible customer cancelled *They have no revs & [--] months of cash *Although they have the only SMR permits their design is inferior to some peers & too expensive *The stock is +40% in days on a market-wide junk rally"  
[X Link](https://x.com/BeenThereCap/status/1724819561940218098)  2023-11-15T16:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

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