[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.] [@valuedontlie](/creator/twitter/valuedontlie) "$CMCSA Versant spin docs filed (timing is yearend 2025). It will almost certainly get a "melting ice cube" multiple. 1) Revenue declining at X% 2) EBITDA declining X% 3) Subs declining X% 4) $2.25bn net debt EBITDA was $4.4bn in 2019 and now $2.7bn. At 5x = $13.5bn EV less $2.25bn = $11.3bn equity value. On 3.7bn CMCSA shares out = $3/share so maybe XX% of current CMCSA share price. Maybe a good chance this gets puked into the spin. Looks like all capital allocation options will be on the table wonder where they'll take this thing over the next 3-5 years. Hmm" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1976636970731241876) [@valuedontlie](/creator/x/valuedontlie) 2025-10-10T13:12Z 11.7K followers, 3275 engagements "Haven't looked at $MMM in a while but I like this slide" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1977794210976903257) [@valuedontlie](/creator/x/valuedontlie) 2025-10-13T17:51Z 11.7K followers, 3795 engagements "This $AMPY move is fishy" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1979526088507244706) [@valuedontlie](/creator/x/valuedontlie) 2025-10-18T12:32Z 11.7K followers, 1433 engagements "Did $LILA / $LILAK sell or spin something Or is this down move just based on (presumably crummy) fundamentals" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1875606665044910227) [@valuedontlie](/creator/x/valuedontlie) 2025-01-04T18:14Z 11.7K followers, 2802 engagements "Say the base business gets back to $400m EBITDA and they succeed with $55m synergies (at XXX% retention) = $455m EBITDA Less $150m interest $85m capex zero tax ignore WC = $220m FCF Would take X quarters to hit 3x leverage target assuming they get to $220m FCF immediately" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1930694675976863870) [@valuedontlie](/creator/x/valuedontlie) 2025-06-05T18:34Z 11.7K followers, 1302 engagements "Whats your favorite investment theme and an idea in that bucket - Reorg - Spin-off - Roll-ups - Turnaround - Inflection stories - GoodCo / BadCo - Management change - Quality / compounder - Public LBO / deleveraging" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1934949699385208897) [@valuedontlie](/creator/x/valuedontlie) 2025-06-17T12:22Z 11.7K followers, 18.4K engagements "$CVEO with an insanely underappreciated capital allocation framework. How many companies have you seen eliminate their dividend in favor of a XX% buyback followed by XX% of FCF going to buybacks thereafter" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1959052267392233816) [@valuedontlie](/creator/x/valuedontlie) 2025-08-23T00:37Z 11.7K followers, 15.5K engagements "Any other hated industries on your list" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1970876750843527550) [@valuedontlie](/creator/x/valuedontlie) 2025-09-24T15:43Z 11.7K followers, 6812 engagements "Did something happen at $AMPY recently" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1971646954821374333) [@valuedontlie](/creator/x/valuedontlie) 2025-09-26T18:44Z 11.7K followers, 2398 engagements "@SFarringtonBKC Any catalyst Or plain vanilla cheap stocks in your opinion" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1973926763815477709) [@valuedontlie](/creator/x/valuedontlie) 2025-10-03T01:43Z 11.7K followers, XXX engagements "$LEG Wrote off $1bn from bedding products segment in 2023-2024. guessing this was mostly/entirely related to their 2019 acquisition of ECS for $1.25bn Ouch. Funded entirely with debt which essentially left the company where they are today (i.e. down from $40-50 to $9)" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1975183256741200166) [@valuedontlie](/creator/x/valuedontlie) 2025-10-06T12:56Z 11.7K followers, 1409 engagements "@TiehackCapital Controlled company Whats the income statement look like" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1977121614434381927) [@valuedontlie](/creator/x/valuedontlie) 2025-10-11T21:18Z 11.7K followers, 1148 engagements "And that level ($455m x X = $1.365bn debt) = 6.2x FCF which is close to my preferred comfort level All of this to say. This thing is "maybe" worth $30+ eventually but it'll be a long road I do own some $MAGN and it feels a bit like owning $BERY in the early days (highly levered repay debt fast load up for the next thing)" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1930696005764137470) [@valuedontlie](/creator/x/valuedontlie) 2025-06-05T18:39Z 11.7K followers, 1486 engagements "@DealintCB Borderline liquidation value" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1968781751116837156) [@valuedontlie](/creator/x/valuedontlie) 2025-09-18T20:58Z 11.7K followers, XXX engagements "Some cheap bigger caps trading at 4-6% dividend yields: $MO $TGT $TAP $HRL $KEY $CVX $HPQ $SWK $KVUE $AMCR $CMCSA" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1970190105689366907) [@valuedontlie](/creator/x/valuedontlie) 2025-09-22T18:15Z 11.7K followers, 6277 engagements "$HON spinning off $SOLS soon. here's a pre-spin look at the setup: 1) specialty chem w/ X segments (RAS & ESM) - former is XX% EBITDA margin mostly refrigerants. other biz lines serve nuclear construction semis etc. 2) guiding LSD/MSD rev growth (vs 3-4% since 2016) - plenty of regulatory demand (HVAC) and market demand (semis data centers AI) 3) capital intensive biz model (8-9% sales) and ramping next 2yrs w/ organic growth projects (capacity) 4) solid op. cash flow but capex limits FCF conversion to XX% - legacy HON shedding XX% op cash flow and XX% capex 5) consolidated EBITDA margins 25%" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1979620444077736350) [@valuedontlie](/creator/x/valuedontlie) 2025-10-18T18:47Z 11.7K followers, 13.6K engagements
[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]
@valuedontlie
"$CMCSA Versant spin docs filed (timing is yearend 2025). It will almost certainly get a "melting ice cube" multiple. 1) Revenue declining at X% 2) EBITDA declining X% 3) Subs declining X% 4) $2.25bn net debt EBITDA was $4.4bn in 2019 and now $2.7bn. At 5x = $13.5bn EV less $2.25bn = $11.3bn equity value. On 3.7bn CMCSA shares out = $3/share so maybe XX% of current CMCSA share price. Maybe a good chance this gets puked into the spin. Looks like all capital allocation options will be on the table wonder where they'll take this thing over the next 3-5 years. Hmm"
X Link @valuedontlie 2025-10-10T13:12Z 11.7K followers, 3275 engagements
"Haven't looked at $MMM in a while but I like this slide"
X Link @valuedontlie 2025-10-13T17:51Z 11.7K followers, 3795 engagements
"This $AMPY move is fishy"
X Link @valuedontlie 2025-10-18T12:32Z 11.7K followers, 1433 engagements
"Did $LILA / $LILAK sell or spin something Or is this down move just based on (presumably crummy) fundamentals"
X Link @valuedontlie 2025-01-04T18:14Z 11.7K followers, 2802 engagements
"Say the base business gets back to $400m EBITDA and they succeed with $55m synergies (at XXX% retention) = $455m EBITDA Less $150m interest $85m capex zero tax ignore WC = $220m FCF Would take X quarters to hit 3x leverage target assuming they get to $220m FCF immediately"
X Link @valuedontlie 2025-06-05T18:34Z 11.7K followers, 1302 engagements
"Whats your favorite investment theme and an idea in that bucket - Reorg - Spin-off - Roll-ups - Turnaround - Inflection stories - GoodCo / BadCo - Management change - Quality / compounder - Public LBO / deleveraging"
X Link @valuedontlie 2025-06-17T12:22Z 11.7K followers, 18.4K engagements
"$CVEO with an insanely underappreciated capital allocation framework. How many companies have you seen eliminate their dividend in favor of a XX% buyback followed by XX% of FCF going to buybacks thereafter"
X Link @valuedontlie 2025-08-23T00:37Z 11.7K followers, 15.5K engagements
"Any other hated industries on your list"
X Link @valuedontlie 2025-09-24T15:43Z 11.7K followers, 6812 engagements
"Did something happen at $AMPY recently"
X Link @valuedontlie 2025-09-26T18:44Z 11.7K followers, 2398 engagements
"@SFarringtonBKC Any catalyst Or plain vanilla cheap stocks in your opinion"
X Link @valuedontlie 2025-10-03T01:43Z 11.7K followers, XXX engagements
"$LEG Wrote off $1bn from bedding products segment in 2023-2024. guessing this was mostly/entirely related to their 2019 acquisition of ECS for $1.25bn Ouch. Funded entirely with debt which essentially left the company where they are today (i.e. down from $40-50 to $9)"
X Link @valuedontlie 2025-10-06T12:56Z 11.7K followers, 1409 engagements
"@TiehackCapital Controlled company Whats the income statement look like"
X Link @valuedontlie 2025-10-11T21:18Z 11.7K followers, 1148 engagements
"And that level ($455m x X = $1.365bn debt) = 6.2x FCF which is close to my preferred comfort level All of this to say. This thing is "maybe" worth $30+ eventually but it'll be a long road I do own some $MAGN and it feels a bit like owning $BERY in the early days (highly levered repay debt fast load up for the next thing)"
X Link @valuedontlie 2025-06-05T18:39Z 11.7K followers, 1486 engagements
"@DealintCB Borderline liquidation value"
X Link @valuedontlie 2025-09-18T20:58Z 11.7K followers, XXX engagements
"Some cheap bigger caps trading at 4-6% dividend yields: $MO $TGT $TAP $HRL $KEY $CVX $HPQ $SWK $KVUE $AMCR $CMCSA"
X Link @valuedontlie 2025-09-22T18:15Z 11.7K followers, 6277 engagements
"$HON spinning off $SOLS soon. here's a pre-spin look at the setup: 1) specialty chem w/ X segments (RAS & ESM) - former is XX% EBITDA margin mostly refrigerants. other biz lines serve nuclear construction semis etc. 2) guiding LSD/MSD rev growth (vs 3-4% since 2016) - plenty of regulatory demand (HVAC) and market demand (semis data centers AI) 3) capital intensive biz model (8-9% sales) and ramping next 2yrs w/ organic growth projects (capacity) 4) solid op. cash flow but capex limits FCF conversion to XX% - legacy HON shedding XX% op cash flow and XX% capex 5) consolidated EBITDA margins 25%"
X Link @valuedontlie 2025-10-18T18:47Z 11.7K followers, 13.6K engagements
/creator/twitter::2671133647/posts