#  @valuedontlie Colin King Colin King posts on X about cash flow, debt, business, market the most. They currently have [------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::2671133647/interactions)  - [--] Week [------] -1.40% - [--] Month [-------] -19% - [--] Months [-------] +16% - [--] Year [---------] +46% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::2671133647/posts_active)  - [--] Week [--] +7% - [--] Month [--] -22% - [--] Months [---] +29% - [--] Year [---] +39% ### Followers: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::2671133647/followers)  - [--] Week [------] +0.07% - [--] Month [------] +0.06% - [--] Months [------] +3.70% - [--] Year [------] +15% ### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::2671133647/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [finance](/list/finance) 29.66% [stocks](/list/stocks) 27.59% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) 8.97% [countries](/list/countries) 2.07% [currencies](/list/currencies) 0.69% [luxury brands](/list/luxury-brands) 0.69% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) 0.69% **Social topic influence** [cash flow](/topic/cash-flow) #435, [debt](/topic/debt) 6.21%, [business](/topic/business) 4.83%, [market](/topic/market) #2559, [ceo](/topic/ceo) 2.76%, [stocks](/topic/stocks) #4955, [$ral](/topic/$ral) 2.76%, [hmm](/topic/hmm) 2.76%, [what are](/topic/what-are) 2.07%, [$aptv](/topic/$aptv) #2 **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@joinyellowbrick](/creator/undefined) [@jpsinvestments](/creator/undefined) [@rodalzmann](/creator/undefined) [@sfarringtonbkc](/creator/undefined) [@guyimpatient](/creator/undefined) [@domocapital](/creator/undefined) [@fatbowzi](/creator/undefined) [@johnhuber72](/creator/undefined) [@kingdomcapadv](/creator/undefined) [@jszhang0912](/creator/undefined) [@andrewrangeley](/creator/undefined) [@koyfincharts](/creator/undefined) [@altafoxcapital](/creator/undefined) [@taobanker](/creator/undefined) [@retaox](/creator/undefined) [@capitalemployed](/creator/undefined) [@blueprintsmb22](/creator/undefined) [@dannyocean555](/creator/undefined) [@acapitallp](/creator/undefined) [@qualitybargain](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Ralliant Corporation (RAL)](/topic/$ral) [Aptiv PLC (APTV)](/topic/$aptv) [Comcast Corporation (CMCSA)](/topic/$cmcsa) [Molson Coors Beverage Co Class B (TAP)](/topic/$tap) [Fastenal Company (FAST)](/topic/$fast) [Ziff Davis, Inc. Common Stock (ZD)](/topic/$zd) [Civeo Corporation (CVEO)](/topic/$cveo) [Cinemark Holdings, Inc. (CNK)](/topic/$cnk) [The Magnum Ice Cream Company N.V. (MICC)](/topic/$micc) [Dole, plc (DOLE)](/topic/$dole) [KBR, Inc. (KBR)](/topic/$kbr) [ALLISON TRANSMISSION HOLDINGS, INC. (ALSN)](/topic/$alsn) [Dana Incorporated (DAN)](/topic/$dan) [Fortive Corp (FTV)](/topic/$ftv) [Amplify Energy Corp. (AMPY)](/topic/$ampy) [Target Corporation (TGT)](/topic/$tgt) [WW Grainger Inc (GWW)](/topic/$gww) [IAC/InterActiveCorp Common Stock (IAC)](/topic/$iac) [Leggett & Platt, Inc. (LEG)](/topic/$leg) [Somnigroup International Inc. (SGI)](/topic/$sgi) [Weyerhaeuser Co (WY)](/topic/$wy) [Versant Media Group, Inc. Class A Common Stock (VSNT)](/topic/$vsnt) [Booz Allen Hamilton Holding, Corp. (BAH)](/topic/$bah) [Open Text Corp (OTEX)](/topic/$otex) [Lear Corporation (LEA)](/topic/$lea) [Beldex (BDX)](/topic/$bdx) [Wat (WAT)](/topic/$wat) [Teleflex, Inc. (TFX)](/topic/$tfx) [Mattel, Inc. (MAT)](/topic/$mat) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "Just thinking out loud. $IAC should spin/merge the dotdash/meredith (now people) biz with $ZD Combines levered B/S (IAC) with clean B/S (ZD) Scaled marketing resources + advertising clout. likely some cost out oppty. tons of cash flow. Too bad RMT doesn't work here" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1955611070602805383) 2025-08-13T12:43Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements "What are your top [--] ideas for 2026-2027 (not just your favorite name) Some names I like here: ZD LEG ATNI STRZ SANG DNOW CMCSA A few other special sits too but these are prob at the top right now and each has a 2-3 yr horizon or longer" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/2006811812281594262) 2026-01-01T19:36Z 11.9K followers, 10.5K engagements "Synchronoss $SNCR officially acquired by Lumine for $9/share No need for the paywall on this Sep [----] article anymore https://www.valuedontlie.com/p/quick-value-283-synchronoss-sncrutm_source=publication-search https://www.valuedontlie.com/p/quick-value-283-synchronoss-sncrutm_source=publication-search" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/2022316233694085613) 2026-02-13T14:25Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements "$CVEO with an insanely underappreciated capital allocation framework. How many companies have you seen eliminate their dividend in favor of a 20% buyback followed by 75% of FCF going to buybacks thereafter Whats your favorite sub-$500M market cap company Provide the ticker and write a short blurb on what makes them great Whats your favorite sub-$500M market cap company Provide the ticker and write a short blurb on what makes them great" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1959052267392233816) 2025-08-23T00:37Z 11.9K followers, 15.8K engagements "Open letter to board of $GDEN from @AndrewRangeley Amounts to a take under at 1-2x EBITDA for OpCo stub. I own some shares and agree with Andrews thoughts on this one" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1987871797564596597) 2025-11-10T13:15Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements "Previously looked at $APTV SpinCo. now unpacking RemainCo. It's the bigger growthier and higher margin side of the split (RC expects cumulative FCF 4x SC over next 3yrs) 1) Aptiv on a mission to shed ICE and low margin exposure since [----] Delphi spin 2) Remaining businesses = ADAS and infotainment products (intelligent systems) and connectors/cables (engineered components) 3) Fundamentals are good = 6% revenue CAGR since [----] split EBITDA margins 19% vs. spinco at 10% lots of FCF 4) "value creation framework" = targeting 4-7% sales growth 200bps margin expansion mid-teens EPS growth before" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1995151727390072924) 2025-11-30T15:23Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements "$LEG received all-stock buyout offer from $SGI at $12 per share I'd do the same if my stock were up 270% over the past few years but this offer is way too low" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1995552747899211898) 2025-12-01T17:57Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements "What are some companies youd like to see pursue a spin-off Where are the hidden gem segments hiding out there" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1996238939858882814) 2025-12-03T15:23Z 11.9K followers, 14K engagements "$WY hosting first investor day in [--] years and giving financial targets to [----] May have to take a look Whats your favorite multi-year plan idea i.e. management lays out [--] year targets and the company is 12-18 months into executing Whats your favorite multi-year plan idea i.e. management lays out [--] year targets and the company is 12-18 months into executing" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1997662110583570841) 2025-12-07T13:38Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements "What was your best performing holding in [----] and did it line up with your original thesis How about worst performing holding too" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1999113477470683364) 2025-12-11T13:46Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements "$CNK quick value: 1) #3 movie theater operator in North America w/ 15% market share 2) theaters clobbered during COVID and again from [----] hollywood strikes -- industry box office sales 76% of pre-COVID levels 3) business model has [--] components: 1) ticket sales shared w/ studios = 43-45% product margins; and 2) concession sales = 80%+ margins 4) despite industry headwinds [----] sales are 96% of [----] level (entirely via ticket pricing & concessions) 5) Movie Club loyalty members at 1.45m paying $10.99/month+ and growing 10% = largest paid member base among theaters and drive 30% of ticket sales" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/2011158081108132019) 2026-01-13T19:27Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements "2) $VSNT hammered post-spin from $CMCSA. consensus view is a BK melting ice cube but plenty of cash will get deployed before (or if) that happens https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/2005300219341078765s=20 $VSNT notes (spin-off from $CMCSA) 1) spin coming Jan [----] [--] share of VSNT for every [--] CMCSA = 145m s/o 2) linear cable networks (MSNBC CNBC Golf USA Networks etc.) -- sales declining 5% annually from 2016-2026E 3) initial [----] guide = $6.275bn sales (3-7% decline) & https://t.co/3Ic3m5abS2 https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/2005300219341078765s=20 $VSNT notes (spin-off from $CMCSA) 1) spin" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/2011413261565239372) 2026-01-14T12:21Z 11.9K followers, [---] engagements "3) $APTV upcoming spin-off of electrical business (more of a traditional auto supplier) while RemainCo has a nice mix of high margin industrial components. earnings growing too RemainCo: SpinCo: https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1993686782081118302s=20 https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1995151727390072924s=20 A look at upcoming Aptiv spin-off coming in 1Q26. 1) SpinCo = electrical distribution systems (EDS) to be named Cyprium (no ticker yet) 2) EDS makes wire harnesses; cables that connect everything in your car (dashboard battery fuses lights etc.). it's the car's plumbing" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/2011413263654011266) 2026-01-14T12:21Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements "APTV a big relative underperformer in auto supply over the past [--] years. set to spin off their electrical business in 1Q26 Auto suppliers +8% already this year valuations have changed and many of these are shifting positions Still holding GTX and PHIN but potentially looking to move on I like APTV (both SpinCo & RemainCo) but its flying this year. Hmm https://t.co/3sSPNzFT7E Auto suppliers +8% already this year valuations have changed and many of these are shifting positions Still holding GTX and PHIN but potentially looking to move on I like APTV (both SpinCo & RemainCo) but its flying this" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/2012528289038934195) 2026-01-17T14:11Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements "@fatbowzi No one is 100% exposed to generics. But they needed that industry to stop cratering in order to return to growth" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/2013331428805648813) 2026-01-19T19:23Z 11.9K followers, [---] engagements "Interesting divergence of returns in accommodations / lodging / modular rentals $CVEO big-time underperformer past 1yr/3yrs" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/2013637754085589168) 2026-01-20T15:40Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements "Sandoz on generics/biosimilar market: "the biosimilars and generics market is worth more than $250 billion and it's growing strongly. Driven by increasing share for biosimilars over the next decade we expect about $600 billion of loss of exclusivity opportunities creating a significant opportunity for expansion." https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013670750591373769 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013670750591373769" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/2013670750591373769) 2026-01-20T17:51Z 11.9K followers, [---] engagements "What is the most repulsive idea in your portfolio Full-on "ick" investing. like what are you ashamed to tell people you own" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/2013987699292803284) 2026-01-21T14:51Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements "$BAH loses treasury contract shares down 12% today Entire government contractor group selling off lately" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/2015846511104385089) 2026-01-26T17:57Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements "$OTEX becoming a management change story. [--] non-core divestitures and a new (external) CEO coming" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/2018717606237147360) 2026-02-03T16:05Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements "@KoyfinCharts Sandoz" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/2020676662484992466) 2026-02-09T01:50Z 11.9K followers, [---] engagements "@JPSInvestments Lear trades at 10x earnings with 6% EBITDA margins vs. EDS at 10%+ so I'd think it should trade at least in that range Using FCF as proxy ($200-300m) = $2-3bn+ fair value for EDS They expect cumulative FCF of $1bn from '26-28 which implies decent FCF growth too" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/2021586779321602215) 2026-02-11T14:07Z 11.9K followers, [--] engagements "@RodAlzmann" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/2021751092116173311) 2026-02-12T00:59Z 11.9K followers, [---] engagements "$MICC Thought this might be a slam dunk spin but everything I'm reading says that 2026-2027 results are gonna suck. Capex jumping from 4% (2024) to 5% Advertising jumping from 12.4% (2024) to 13% Separation costs 365m in '26 & '150m in '27 Restructuring costs 0.8% from 2025-2028 Working capital % sales from 3.3% (2024) to 4.5% No guidance for [----] or [----] only signaling [----] and [----]. hmm. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1998508683479621635 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1998508683479621635" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1998508683479621635) 2025-12-09T21:42Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements "Do these estimates adequately reflect the 2026-2027 outlook $MICC gave Stock is trading at 8x EBITDA and 12.5x earnings per these numbers $MICC Thought this might be a slam dunk spin but everything I'm reading says that 2026-2027 results are gonna suck. Capex jumping from 4% (2024) to 5% Advertising jumping from 12.4% (2024) to 13% Separation costs 365m in '26 & '150m in '27 Restructuring costs 0.8% from $MICC Thought this might be a slam dunk spin but everything I'm reading says that 2026-2027 results are gonna suck. Capex jumping from 4% (2024) to 5% Advertising jumping from 12.4% (2024) to" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1998745726868689226) 2025-12-10T13:24Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements "Covered the upcoming $BDX special sit this week - RMT transaction + recent $WAT appreciation = cheap stub "New BD" opportunity" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/2006368998401958229) 2025-12-31T14:17Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements "I like some of these alcohol stocks (long $TAP) but the industry isnt despised enough yet. Thinking back to generics after TEVA blew up it took nearly a decade for those stocks to catch a bid and they still trade at single digit multiples. Prob early still The alcohol industry looks cheap. Volumes are flat to down sentiment is awful and everyone is extrapolating GLP-1s and sobriety culture forever. But - These brands throw off absurd cash - Pricing power still exists in spirits and premium beer - Marketing spend gets cut The alcohol industry looks cheap. Volumes are flat to down sentiment is" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/2013062267193942169) 2026-01-19T01:33Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements "$DOLE 1) Vertically integrated produce supplier w/ #1-2 position in bananas pineapples grapes - lots of infrastructure here: 110k acres [---] facilities [--] ships etc. 2) Formed via [----] (levered) merger with Total Produce IPO at $16 3) Non-fundamental sell-off in Sep [----] from passing/liquidation of longtime owner & former CEO David Murdock (shares from $15 to $13) 4) Rev + EBITDA steadily growing pre-and-post merger. EBITA mostly flat $380-390m from '21-25 5) FCF + divestitures used to repay debt from '21-24 - capital allocation inflecting toward buybacks ($100m authorization 3Q25 = 8% s/o) 6)" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1988594429767061613) 2025-11-12T13:07Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements "4) $DOLE cheap bigcap delevered from [----] merger w/ Total Produce. not really a special sit but a nice earnings growth story over the next few years https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1988594429767061613s=20 $DOLE 1) Vertically integrated produce supplier w/ #1-2 position in bananas pineapples grapes - lots of infrastructure here: 110k acres [---] facilities [--] ships etc. 2) Formed via [----] (levered) merger with Total Produce IPO at $16 3) Non-fundamental sell-off in Sep [----] https://t.co/gsOtlhwYZD https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1988594429767061613s=20 $DOLE 1) Vertically integrated produce" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2011413265457586605) 2026-01-14T12:21Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements "These "cheap tech" names just keep getting cheaper. An updated look at my "cheap tech" list Surprised $ZD trading at a discount to $CCSI despite a virtually debt-free balance sheet and better collection of businesses (IMO) https://t.co/JwghQSOQrJ An updated look at my "cheap tech" list Surprised $ZD trading at a discount to $CCSI despite a virtually debt-free balance sheet and better collection of businesses (IMO) https://t.co/JwghQSOQrJ" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2018025013656293751) 2026-02-01T18:13Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements "Stock hammered lately" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/2018717837200634341) 2026-02-03T16:06Z 11.9K followers, [---] engagements "Ideas from Jan 26: 1) $TFX abandoned spin-off for divestiture + CEO change + buybacks 2) $KBR value + catalyst: upcoming spin (2H26) 3) $SXP.TO sale-leaseback capital returns + resuming M&A fundamentals inflecting 4) $CNK beaten down + capital allocation inflection" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/2018791306752037311) 2026-02-03T20:58Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements "What a crusty 84yo sounds like on an earnings call" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2019425959254900902) 2026-02-05T15:00Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements "5) $KBR upcoming spin + trading at a big discount to government contractor peers. solid earnings growth & FCF https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/2015071717325152645s=20 $KBR quick value upcoming spin (2H26) of MTS segment (government contractor) 1) MTS segment (SpinCo) = government contractor; focus on space/logistics (vs. peers heavier into IT data cyber intelligence) 2) STS segment (RemainCo) = consulting services + IP licensing for https://t.co/kOTZUpyngb https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/2015071717325152645s=20 $KBR quick value upcoming spin (2H26) of MTS segment (government contractor) 1)" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/2019484660481355891) 2026-02-05T18:53Z 11.9K followers, [---] engagements "1) cash flow support is known in acquisition loan vs unknown in startup/existing/project loan 2) purchase multiples (were) lower = more DSCR support 3) 10yr am on SBA 7a vs 4-7 C&I I think about this chart a lot. Why do SBA acquisition loans perfom better My answer: 3rd party diligence (buyer QofE deal team). None of that exists when a loan is made to an existing business or a start-up. Buyer diligence is the key. The deal team results in better https://t.co/vTEaWT7kKV I think about this chart a lot. Why do SBA acquisition loans perfom better My answer: 3rd party diligence (buyer QofE deal" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/2019912313155842101) 2026-02-06T23:13Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements "$ALSN Caught this pitch from Meryl Witmer in Barron's roundtable and liked it. Here are my notes: 1) Dominant market share (80%) in transmissions for buses & class 6-8 trucks (on-highway) 2) Huge margins (30%+ EBITDA) but highly cyclical = long-run average P/E at 9-10x 3) Recently acquired off-highway business from $DAN for $2.7bn - adds $2.5bn sales & $350m EBITDA 4) Changes mix from 3% off-highway to 50% off-highway international from 22% to 44% transmissions now 50% of sales 5) Deal synergies + recovering end-markets + buybacks = EPS could hit $12+ by 2027-2028 (vs. $8-9 today) 6) Capital" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2020248849378693445) 2026-02-07T21:30Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements "A look at 18-year financial performance at $ALSN and [---] years of the recently acquired $DAN off-highway business" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2020509184425439626) 2026-02-08T14:45Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements "This company sold a business unit in their fiscal 4Q25 and is virtually debt-free. what do we think" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/2020863002761953303) 2026-02-09T14:11Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements "If a new (external) CEO joined a company 2yrs ago and cleaned things up while shares are flat would you still consider it a "management change" story" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/2020942778050674852) 2026-02-09T19:28Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements "Vermont Flannel turns [--] years old in [----] Team did an amazing job telling the story and built a cool 90's throwback tee to celebrate. https://www.vermontflannel.com/blogs/blog/celebrating-35-years-of-flannel https://www.vermontflannel.com/blogs/blog/celebrating-35-years-of-flannel" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/2021273708539806207) 2026-02-10T17:23Z 11.9K followers, [---] engagements "Today I'm pulling some flowers to water the weeds" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/2021281658155028613) 2026-02-10T17:54Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements "$MAT Shares down 30% pre-market on Q4 results. guiding 8-16% EPS decline in FY26 (includes $400m buybacks) Will need to take another look at this one" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/2021578162904219786) 2026-02-11T13:32Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements "Ive missed a few outperforming spins lately Need to dial it in" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/2021730707895201814) 2026-02-11T23:38Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements "$ATNI Announces divestiture of US tower portfolio for $250-270m gross proceeds ($180-195m net) Net proceeds are 40-45% of current market ($425m) $10-13m hit to EBITDA on a full year basis I have shares trading at 5x EV/EBITDA with less than 1.8x leverage" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/2021968156261335055) 2026-02-12T15:22Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements "Love this diagram of auto supplier universe cross-section of: (1) scale/revenue; (2) margin profile; and (3) cash conversion In the bullseye are $BWA $DCH and $APTV (long)" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/2022343431792840705) 2026-02-13T16:13Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements "If you couldn't tell writing up $FTV $RAL spin for tomorrow's newsletter (free) I'm fascinated by these businesses despite the stupid multiples they trade at. maybe something here though $FTV is cheapest and worst performing industrial conglomerate in the group Hmm. Converting EBITDA into FCF at an 83% clip is pretty impressive https://t.co/n0HbOD17b6 Converting EBITDA into FCF at an 83% clip is pretty impressive https://t.co/n0HbOD17b6" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1936820260960637161) 2025-06-22T16:15Z 11.4K followers, [----] engagements "Unallocated corporate costs as % of sales -- what's a reasonable amount Here's $HHS running at 5-7% with a [--] segment business (feels high)" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1937114023301894559) 2025-06-23T11:42Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements "$PINC is another one at 10% of sales. granted they divested some businesses recently https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1819745538507686293 $PINC needs an activist in there. botched ASR slow moving sale process for other non-core businesses and bloated corporate costs. Spending 10% sales and 25% of segment EBITDA on corporate costs cc @AltaFoxCapital https://t.co/DNxggfmM2y https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1819745538507686293 $PINC needs an activist in there. botched ASR slow moving sale process for other non-core businesses and bloated corporate costs. Spending 10% sales and 25% of segment" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1937114230584639782) 2025-06-23T11:43Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements "FTV set to spin-off Ralliant $RAL in a few days: 1) Ralliant (SpinCo) -- test & measurement + sensors & safety. "cash cow" focused on M&A + capital returns 2) Fortive (RemainCo) -- advanced healthcare solutions (AHS) & intelligent operating solutions (IOS). organic growth" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1937503342332133394) 2025-06-24T13:29Z 11.4K followers, [---] engagements "$RAL SpinCo $2.1bn sales / $430m FCF = flat from 2022-1Q25. includes $1.5bn acquisition in Jan [----]. Hmm. Mgmt targeting: 1) 3% organic growth + 1% M&A growth = 3-5% growth 2) S&S margins high-20s + T&M mid-teens to low-20s = low-to-mid-20s combined EBITDA margins 3) 2% capex = 95% FCF conversion ($1bn cumulative FCF through 2028) 4) $1bn net debt = 1.9x leverage Fundamentals at SpinCo look very meh" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1937503347931570528) 2025-06-24T13:29Z 11.4K followers, [---] engagements "$FTV RemainCo $4.1bn sales / $960m FCF = growing nicely. after years of M&A currently on a 3.5yr hiatus for major deals Mgmt targeting: 1) 3-4% organic growth (50% recurring) 2) 29% EBITDA margins (close to industry best-in-class) 3) HSD EPS growth 4) $1.2bn net debt = 1.7x leverage (targeting 2.5x gross debt) Fundamentals here look very solid and all/mostly organic. looks like an excellent business" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1937503350053876196) 2025-06-24T13:29Z 11.4K followers, [---] engagements "@taobanker Can you add net leverage to that Might also be a [--] year low" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1938497614351372737) 2025-06-27T07:20Z 11.3K followers, [---] engagements "@retaox Sandoz" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1939438566750445818) 2025-06-29T21:39Z 11.4K followers, [----] engagements "Starz $STRZ Recently spun off lions gate studio biz. Pure play DTC streaming with low exposure to linear cable (30% of revs). Was captive source of cash inside lions gate (ie overspend on content) and that will unwind next 1-2 years leading to tons of cash flow $16/sh x 16.8m s/o = $270m market cap + $615m net debt = $885m EV. Guiding to 15% margins or $200m OIBDA in [----] (4.4x EV/EBITDA). Management thinks they can hit 20% margins in a few years with simple levers. At 5.5x $200m = $23/sh vs $16. I think thats low. Deserves to trade at premium to AMCX at worst (less exposure to linear and" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1939937230010663381) 2025-07-01T06:40Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements "$CNC about to fit this bill. flat share price since mid-2017 (8yrs) https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1940231837558952354 @JohnHuber72 I think Dreman outlined a similar strategy too. Specifically stocks that were not falling knives but flatlining. Good opportunity for reset of investor expectations after a few years of sideways performance. This is one of my favorite places to find new ideas. https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1940231837558952354 @JohnHuber72 I think Dreman outlined a similar strategy too. Specifically stocks that were not falling knives but flatlining. Good opportunity for" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1940338647108342021) 2025-07-02T09:15Z 11.4K followers, [----] engagements "@kingdomcapadv @capitalemployed Finally going to do some work on this one do you have a single write-up as best place to start" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1940600207491940595) 2025-07-03T02:35Z 11.4K followers, [---] engagements "$RAL spin-off trading at $45 on 113m s/o = $5bn market cap. FCF guide looks like a potential landmine compared to carve-out f/s. $1bn cumulative through [----] = $285-333m per year vs. $400m () 15-17x FCF. not quite there yet. Backdrop looks similar to [----] $KEYS spin" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1941478134542631340) 2025-07-05T12:43Z 11.4K followers, [----] engagements "John Train described Buffett's approach to managing the portfolio as: Sitting with "half a dozen or so core holdings plus a dozen or so held for possible resale" What are your core holdings right now" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1941478659317002403) 2025-07-05T12:45Z 11.4K followers, [----] engagements "@blueprintsmb22 Hmm Evelyn just called me about a loan approval" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1944070779001360729) 2025-07-12T16:26Z 11.4K followers, [---] engagements "@SFarringtonBKC likewise on BW. i like the entire cap structure (and LEAPs) refuse is strong word for UNFI. actively dislike as opposed to "not interested"" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1944140493748654571) 2025-07-12T21:03Z 11.4K followers, [---] engagements "2006-2014 EPS basically flat then exploded through [----]. I find these coiled spring situations really fascinating. If you can find a good but nowhere business with some sort of regime change or strategy change. FD: I have no idea what changed at BRO from 06-14 to 14-24 [--]. Brown & Brown $BRO Brown & Brown is a serial acquirer of small independent insurance agencies and brokerages in the U.S. Their support/scale advantages help smaller agencies expand their business once under their umbrella. Total Return: +41900% https://t.co/dyDiu21DZI [--]. Brown & Brown $BRO Brown & Brown is a serial acquirer" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1945189440244043944) 2025-07-15T18:31Z 11.4K followers, [----] engagements "$BW - Quick Value E&C turnaround making progress on the balance sheet. After a dozen or so asset sales + divestitures since [----] it looks like they might finally be on sound footing. https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1930646328574402782 Maybe I need to revisit $BW as a call option and the baby bonds as a legit investment here. 1) anticipate positive [----] cash flow 2) swapped $132m [----] debt to [----] at discount 3) asset sale for $20m 4) another asset sale for $177m 5) backlog / bookings +47% / +11% https://t.co/TQJqabCc6z https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1930646328574402782 Maybe I need to" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1947355921278992546) 2025-07-21T18:00Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements "1) Background + history E&C firm with [--] segments: renewable environmental thermal. Thermal is profitable workhorse. Revenue from mix of parts service and construction. See screenshot of corporate history / how they got into their current mess" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1947355923132944772) 2025-07-21T18:00Z 11.4K followers, [--] engagements "2) Starting with the bad news. Not going to sugarcoat the situation quite a bit of hair on it: - high leverage - maturity wall in [----] - no cash flow since [----] - earnings are heavily adjusted - "other" liabilities (prefs pension etc.)" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1947355925485895722) 2025-07-21T18:00Z 11.5K followers, [---] engagements "3) the good news. $BW is raising cash buying time and paying down debt 1) $120m divestitures in [----] + $200m in 1H25 2) swapped $130m debt for $100m w/ longer maturity 3) back to positive CF in '25 4) tendering for $70m debt at discount 5) backlog and bookings growing" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1947355927486538145) 2025-07-21T18:00Z 11.5K followers, [---] engagements "4) hydrogen call option BW developing hydrogen production (BrightLoop) technology on verge of commercialization Currently spending $9-10m per year Could see 10-50 tons/day by [----] = $40-100m per "plant" at 25% gross margin" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1947355930158342376) 2025-07-21T18:00Z 11.4K followers, [---] engagements "$AMPY announcing strategic update and CEO change Exploring sale of East Texas + Oklahoma assets which would make this nearly 100% oil-based CEO change unsurprising given prior management pushed for unsuccessful merger" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1947699647792677084) 2025-07-22T16:45Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements "@DannyOcean555 @ACapitalLP Is PRKS asymmetric How so" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1947804149103419811) 2025-07-22T23:41Z 11.4K followers, [---] engagements "@GuyImpatient" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1948176428685578682) 2025-07-24T00:20Z 11.4K followers, [---] engagements "Markets might be crazy overpriced but at least you can buy Pfizer at [----] levels" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1948797914433692048) 2025-07-25T17:30Z 11.4K followers, [----] engagements "$STRZ bear thesis. they weren't included in $CHTR slide on "expensive" OTT package" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1949177746191757342) 2025-07-26T18:39Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements "@qualitybargain Interesting. what's the TL trading at right now" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1949980570064126016) 2025-07-28T23:49Z 11.4K followers, [---] engagements "$UNFI Bumpy ride over the past 10yrs but entering an interesting point here. middle-innings turnaround + deleveraging story. A quick look" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1950539291236380849) 2025-07-30T12:49Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements "Turnaround. New management laid out 3-year plan in Oct 2024: 1) Flat revenue (i.e. no growth from FY25-27) 2) EBITDA growth HSD (from $550m base) 3) FCF margin of 0.5% or better (by FY27) 4) Net leverage 2.5x by FY27 Note: UNFI is July yearend so nearing FY25 completion" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1950539297804664845) 2025-07-30T12:49Z 11.6K followers, [---] engagements "Turnaround. How are things going so far 1) Revenue growing ($31.7bn FY25 guide vs. $31bn plan) 2) EBITDA ahead of plan $575-615m for FY25 3) FCF ramping faster than expected (Oct24 guide = $100m now expect $200m) 4) Net leverage at 2.5x target by FY26 (full year early)" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1950539300409426015) 2025-07-30T12:49Z 11.6K followers, [---] engagements "If pacing ahead of 3-yr plan why are shares cheap 1) Debt - still sitting at 3.5x leverage and guiding 2.5x next year. need combo EBITDA growth & higher FCF 2) Cyber incident - $350-400m lost sales + $40-50m lost EBITDA. mgmt says "contained" but need to see" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1950539302586232936) 2025-07-30T12:49Z 11.4K followers, [---] engagements "So what are shares worth FY27 consensus = $650m EBITDA 61m s/o x $28 = $1.7bn cap + $1.6bn net debt (FY26 est.) = $3.3bn EV At 6-7x = $38-49 per share (16-30% IRR from todays $28/share) Maybe conservative too Estimates haven't "gotten ahead of themselves" just yet Hmm" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1950539305186652602) 2025-07-30T12:49Z 11.4K followers, [---] engagements "Earnings call had [--] nice quarter guys and the stock is down 20% Didnt see that coming" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1950672617259884979) 2025-07-30T21:39Z 11.4K followers, [----] engagements "@jjtejkl Reading and using financial statements (thrilling)" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1952444389269102971) 2025-08-04T18:59Z 11.5K followers, [--] engagements "My southwest flight purchase comes with [--] months of $SIRI Hmm" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1953622888462135505) 2025-08-08T01:02Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements "Barrons arguing $PARA is interesting / could work because Ellisons are rich Outside money either dilutive or has a cost how much additional capital does this thing need" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1954527982300672447) 2025-08-10T12:59Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements "Looking for some good additions to study/working music chill/lofi/downtempo Currently listening to: Attom Blackmill Barnacle Boi Blue Wednesday Wys Give me your deepest cuts" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1955019260771831975) 2025-08-11T21:31Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements "Family is traveling which means I get some bonus free time to look at stocks this evening Thinking of doing a livestream review of my watchlist / stock tracker and crank out some updates real time" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1955362742757687495) 2025-08-12T20:16Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements "Solid addition Also pandora still has best new music discovery IMO" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1955808078466576813) 2025-08-14T01:45Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements "@_99Paul99 By generating substantial cash flow. they spend $600-700m per year on content spend and $378m of those CL are content payables This isn't an asset heavy business model so I wouldn't expect to see CA CL" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1956320336938508342) 2025-08-15T11:41Z 11.6K followers, [--] engagements "Will add some more thoughts later" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1956529177332506649) 2025-08-16T01:31Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements "a) they already have a sizable customer base b) mid-tier offering not trying to be the core subscription (nflx prime ytv etc) c) I believe bundling will come back via aggregators (prime ytv etc) where you can get various packages of channels d) I believe theyre better positioned than some legacy cable channels where you cant see underlying sub trends (think CMCSA/WBD spins)" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1956540169550451130) 2025-08-16T02:15Z 11.5K followers, [---] engagements "@JPSInvestments How well do you understand the actual product itself Feels outside my wheelhouse" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1957490874843054472) 2025-08-18T17:12Z 11.5K followers, [---] engagements "Costco shrimp x st elmo cocktail sauce" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1957562647294980411) 2025-08-18T21:57Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements "@JPSInvestments Thanks Agreed" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1957573693447565753) 2025-08-18T22:41Z 11.6K followers, [--] engagements "@CayucosCapital @LukeWolgram Sellers discretionary earnings. Basically cash flow + owner comp" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1957614004848980456) 2025-08-19T01:22Z 11.5K followers, [--] engagements "A trickle of insider buying at $CE" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1957881985072001441) 2025-08-19T19:06Z 11.7K followers, [----] engagements "Thanks for your help folks. whittled the tracker down to [--] names and then added [--] from suggestions. Doing another livestream at 8:30pm ET. why not. Doing another livestream at 8:30pm ET. why not" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1958701834782351536) 2025-08-22T01:24Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements "If all alcohol (esp. beer) is secularly challenged. why haven't earnings multiples compressed more And why such a relative undervaluation to now underlevered $TAP" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1958877064301314068) 2025-08-22T13:01Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements "Surprised PE isn't after this one. could leverage existing cash flow to buy the company and 1-2 dividend recaps later you have a stellar IRR/MOIC with minimal equity invested. Not like it's in secular decline or anything either. Market cap is $280m" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1959054805441053130) 2025-08-23T00:47Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements "@dstressedcos Is that across all categories of alcohol or specific to the lower end "cheap" beers" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1959081461643898951) 2025-08-23T02:33Z 11.5K followers, [--] engagements "Both series of $BW baby bonds quickly approaching par. still hanging onto some equity (basically a call option) but prob time to move on from baby bonds Interesting how slowly the market digested the deleveraging moves here. $BW with a newly approved debt buyback plan $BW with a newly approved debt buyback plan" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1960710334555005076) 2025-08-27T14:25Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements "How do you define "special situation"" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1961058183713333568) 2025-08-28T13:28Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements "Best way to game your company's dividend growth Take it out to [--] decimal places" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1961082092172763562) 2025-08-28T15:03Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements "Re-segmenting reclassifying financial results and disc. ops are extremely irritating when you're trying to get a clear picture of a business over a [--] year stretch. Especially when results are reclassified back to an older reporting method" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1962593093464580239) 2025-09-01T19:07Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements "Link to full write up https://www.valuedontlie.com/p/quick-value-282-live-pitney-bowes https://www.valuedontlie.com/p/quick-value-282-live-pitney-bowes" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1963255933556953291) 2025-09-03T15:01Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements "@bullsbayretail @DOMOCAPITAL I mean sales are literally declining for over a decade segment earnings stable more recently (Dont get me wrong Im a fan of the story; but wouldnt call this growing just yet)" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1963335205156212954) 2025-09-03T20:16Z 11.6K followers, [---] engagements "@DOMOCAPITAL I'm seeing $420m in [----] and $500m in [----] per 4Q24 earnings release" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1965098463672357116) 2025-09-08T17:02Z 11.6K followers, [---] engagements "@DOMOCAPITAL Yea understood on the EBITDA multiples and agreed. My cash flow numbers are real (came from cash flow statement excluding disc ops). the $330m guide for [----] excludes any Rx costs from what I remember" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1965109184070025535) 2025-09-08T17:45Z 11.6K followers, [---] engagements "@atelicinvest Not amazing but consistently 10% of sales Balance sheet was/is the main problem (as is the case in most 4-5x EBITDA situations it seems)" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1965234062886625453) 2025-09-09T02:01Z 11.6K followers, [---] engagements "Interesting SMB listing. this is the sort of thing that prob doesn't interest searcher crowd but it's a sold earnings base and straightforward business model in a decent industry" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1966485698258858146) 2025-09-12T12:55Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements "@TiehackCapital Per share net income flat for [--] years despite $5m higher revenue" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1968126846165455076) 2025-09-17T01:36Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements "@SleepwellCap @compoundpapi @vanckzhu I dont think its a record store at $4m sales. Im guessing its instrument based maybe with services. Like a Sweetwater" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1968433180421067051) 2025-09-17T21:53Z 11.6K followers, [---] engagements "@KairosPraxis I love the setup honestly. [--] very distinct phases of company history since [----] CEO change happened in [----] Sold a business for very low multiple after FY25 which is impacting FY26 guide" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1968817851642372255) 2025-09-18T23:22Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements "Is $FLR officially a negative EV with $SMR at $46-47" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1969163272268988487) 2025-09-19T22:14Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements "@bizalmanac Have been meaning to look at EEFT" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1970883260483076324) 2025-09-24T16:09Z 11.6K followers, [---] engagements "$TGT bull case in a nutshell @porterstansb call me crazy but i'd much rather be long than short a consumer defensive retailer with 2x EBITDA in debt spitting off billions in free cash at a ttm PE of 10x and paying a 5% yield. still a staple beloved in-store experience for women. also their trail mix section is awesome @porterstansb call me crazy but i'd much rather be long than short a consumer defensive retailer with 2x EBITDA in debt spitting off billions in free cash at a ttm PE of 10x and paying a 5% yield. still a staple beloved in-store experience for women. also their trail mix section" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1971381228076151135) 2025-09-26T01:08Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements "@FishtownCap What happened to cause the price divergence" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1971599526856441938) 2025-09-26T15:35Z 11.7K followers, [---] engagements "Did something happen at $AMPY recently" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1971646954821374333) 2025-09-26T18:44Z 11.7K followers, [----] engagements "@JohnHuber72 @kingdomcapadv @AKWilk @natstewart5 To some extent I am taking the side of more regular publishing :) I do write on [--] ideas per year - granted 5-10 of those are typically actionable and I (try to) call that out as they come @AKWilk Why do all posts need to be actionable high conviction ideas Those can come as they do but youre still researching and evaluating companies regularly. I enjoy working through my watchlist and to do pile in a weekly format. Even if not always immediately actionable. @AKWilk Why do all posts need to be actionable high conviction ideas Those can come as" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1973396040586871151) 2025-10-01T14:34Z 11.6K followers, [---] engagements "$KVUE now 5% yield Anyone working on this given all the tylenol press How do you handicap those risks Some cheap bigger caps trading at 4-6% dividend yields: $MO $TGT $TAP $HRL $KEY $CVX $HPQ $SWK $KVUE $AMCR $CMCSA Some cheap bigger caps trading at 4-6% dividend yields: $MO $TGT $TAP $HRL $KEY $CVX $HPQ $SWK $KVUE $AMCR $CMCSA" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1973440100668153949) 2025-10-01T17:29Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements "How many of your holdings track performance using GAAP results No stock comp add-backs no restructuring add-backs not even intangible amortization" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1975564519272280065) 2025-10-07T14:11Z 11.7K followers, [----] engagements "@rogercfr Im not sure yet. I still think an RMT with WBD makes sense. Its also likely one of these will act as consolidator for smaller channels/networks. Theyll likely want an app to go OTT and then bank on vMVPD continuing to grow" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1976652231412994054) 2025-10-10T14:13Z 11.6K followers, [---] engagements "File this one away The market cannot look past declining assets/businesses even if highly profitable or cash generative or insanely cheap Stocks follow earnings MRNA suffering through this now" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1977349583983251726) 2025-10-12T12:24Z 11.7K followers, [----] engagements "If you were wondering why the latest rounds of QE have failed to create rampant inflation it's because of this: http://t.co/rZGXdoGbn2" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/555814698319609857) 2015-01-15T19:52Z 10K followers, [--] engagements "hennessy small-cap japan fund $HJPSX average holding trades at 10x earnings 0.95x BV and 6x CF @ChrisMayerAgora" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/587969781342539776) 2015-04-14T13:24Z 10.4K followers, [--] engagements "$GLCH wins $17.8m in arbitration against RW Baird http://t.co/ZEVESKWXH1 http://bit.ly/1G3IT2J http://bit.ly/1G3IT2J" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/611192890249883648) 2015-06-17T15:25Z 10K followers, [--] engagements "$FAST 2Q15 http://t.co/2PqviGL8QF hands down this company provides the best quarterly releases http://bit.ly/1TzTryZ http://bit.ly/1TzTryZ" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/620955573014540288) 2015-07-14T13:58Z 10K followers, [--] engagements "well timed @barronsonline $GRMN cutting outlook http://t.co/TuY77BrVhM http://bit.ly/1fLOtAU http://bit.ly/1fLOtAU" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/621672035702439936) 2015-07-16T13:25Z 10K followers, [--] engagements "in 2Q15 $NFLX paid $1.27bn for additional streaming content while $TWC $CMCSA $CHTR $DTV $DISH had a combined $10.8bn in programming expense" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/634414105768689664) 2015-08-20T17:18Z 10K followers, [--] engagements "durable goods vs. $FAST $GWW daily sales growth http://t.co/uq9mdNHN6j" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/637300770573000706) 2015-08-28T16:28Z 11.6K followers, [--] engagements "is traditional retail really the appropriate comp set for $EBAY http://t.co/4a67o6hFWJ" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/639159613309472769) 2015-09-02T19:35Z 10K followers, [--] engagements "Any thoughts out there on $ST In a way reminds me of $ADI which I regard as a very good business" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/652221902677778432) 2015-10-08T20:39Z 10K followers, [--] engagements "$FAST 3Q15 best press release among public cos http://t.co/Eu9wuxFOPA http://bit.ly/1VQiJrR http://bit.ly/1VQiJrR" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/653930481680056320) 2015-10-13T13:49Z 10K followers, [--] engagements "Quaterly comments from $GWW CEO http://t.co/aIwm5Qi8hW" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/655012113698717696) 2015-10-16T13:27Z 11.6K followers, [--] engagements "prison facility operator $CXW seems cheap and to lesser extent peer $GEO - worries over rate rise prison occupancy fears" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/673905564552851456) 2015-12-07T16:43Z 10K followers, [--] engagements "$XCO Q4 results - http://bit.ly/1SlKJ9a http://bit.ly/1SlKJ9a" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/705471870728929280) 2016-03-03T19:16Z 10K followers, [--] engagements "What are the odds $AME combines with $FTV someday" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/740982127425163264) 2016-06-09T19:01Z 10K followers, [--] engagements "$HON spinning off pos chemical company - AdvanSix Inc - http://bit.ly/2atKbxo http://bit.ly/2atKbxo" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/757933341240942592) 2016-07-26T13:39Z 10K followers, [--] engagements "@webkowuite @rubicon59 HJPSX" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/774681269007372288) 2016-09-10T18:49Z 10.4K followers, [--] engagements "@YoloCapMgt @17thStCap @BaseHitInvestor @TheSovaGroup @PlanMaestro EISMX -- guy has unbelievably low turnover and good numbers" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/795356897612337153) 2016-11-06T20:07Z 11.4K followers, [--] engagements "@ERMICLLC @ValueDude $BDVB has had some wild swings since trading began. i thought Q1 results were better than expected. have been buying on swings" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/869911787885522945) 2017-05-31T13:41Z 11.4K followers, [--] engagements "someone made quick $50 on $BDVB" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/875710638420570119) 2017-06-16T13:44Z 11.4K followers, [--] engagements "this seems like a silly way to look at $RAD post-sale" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/880779895491768321) 2017-06-30T13:27Z 10K followers, [--] engagements "$ARMK just raised my mfg co's biweekly prices by 26% from $95 to $120" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/901059304815550464) 2017-08-25T12:30Z 10K followers, [--] engagements "$UWN sets comp targets for FY18. would put this at something like 5.2x EBITDA w 25% of market cap in cash on B/S. cc @ragnarisapirate" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/908016371942019072) 2017-09-13T17:15Z 10K followers, [--] engagements "good overview of the $RSO situation -- https://seekingalpha.com/article/4115708-resource-capital-buy-good-news https://seekingalpha.com/article/4115708-resource-capital-buy-good-news" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/923206426608234497) 2017-10-25T15:15Z 10K followers, [--] engagements "if you're not above making $100 -- might want to check out the $BDVB reverse split / go private deal" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/931637918724247553) 2017-11-17T21:39Z 11.4K followers, [--] engagements "$AWLCF had both their recent "awards" pulled. ouchie" [X Link](https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/964139760083243009) 2018-02-15T14:10Z 10.6K followers, [--] engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@valuedontlie Colin KingColin King posts on X about cash flow, debt, business, market the most. They currently have [------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Social category influence finance 29.66% stocks 27.59% cryptocurrencies 8.97% countries 2.07% currencies 0.69% luxury brands 0.69% technology brands 0.69%
Social topic influence cash flow #435, debt 6.21%, business 4.83%, market #2559, ceo 2.76%, stocks #4955, $ral 2.76%, hmm 2.76%, what are 2.07%, $aptv #2
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @joinyellowbrick @jpsinvestments @rodalzmann @sfarringtonbkc @guyimpatient @domocapital @fatbowzi @johnhuber72 @kingdomcapadv @jszhang0912 @andrewrangeley @koyfincharts @altafoxcapital @taobanker @retaox @capitalemployed @blueprintsmb22 @dannyocean555 @acapitallp @qualitybargain
Top assets mentioned Ralliant Corporation (RAL) Aptiv PLC (APTV) Comcast Corporation (CMCSA) Molson Coors Beverage Co Class B (TAP) Fastenal Company (FAST) Ziff Davis, Inc. Common Stock (ZD) Civeo Corporation (CVEO) Cinemark Holdings, Inc. (CNK) The Magnum Ice Cream Company N.V. (MICC) Dole, plc (DOLE) KBR, Inc. (KBR) ALLISON TRANSMISSION HOLDINGS, INC. (ALSN) Dana Incorporated (DAN) Fortive Corp (FTV) Amplify Energy Corp. (AMPY) Target Corporation (TGT) WW Grainger Inc (GWW) IAC/InterActiveCorp Common Stock (IAC) Leggett & Platt, Inc. (LEG) Somnigroup International Inc. (SGI) Weyerhaeuser Co (WY) Versant Media Group, Inc. Class A Common Stock (VSNT) Booz Allen Hamilton Holding, Corp. (BAH) Open Text Corp (OTEX) Lear Corporation (LEA) Beldex (BDX) Wat (WAT) Teleflex, Inc. (TFX) Mattel, Inc. (MAT)
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"Just thinking out loud. $IAC should spin/merge the dotdash/meredith (now people) biz with $ZD Combines levered B/S (IAC) with clean B/S (ZD) Scaled marketing resources + advertising clout. likely some cost out oppty. tons of cash flow. Too bad RMT doesn't work here"
X Link 2025-08-13T12:43Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements
"What are your top [--] ideas for 2026-2027 (not just your favorite name) Some names I like here: ZD LEG ATNI STRZ SANG DNOW CMCSA A few other special sits too but these are prob at the top right now and each has a 2-3 yr horizon or longer"
X Link 2026-01-01T19:36Z 11.9K followers, 10.5K engagements
"Synchronoss $SNCR officially acquired by Lumine for $9/share No need for the paywall on this Sep [----] article anymore https://www.valuedontlie.com/p/quick-value-283-synchronoss-sncrutm_source=publication-search https://www.valuedontlie.com/p/quick-value-283-synchronoss-sncrutm_source=publication-search"
X Link 2026-02-13T14:25Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements
"$CVEO with an insanely underappreciated capital allocation framework. How many companies have you seen eliminate their dividend in favor of a 20% buyback followed by 75% of FCF going to buybacks thereafter Whats your favorite sub-$500M market cap company Provide the ticker and write a short blurb on what makes them great Whats your favorite sub-$500M market cap company Provide the ticker and write a short blurb on what makes them great"
X Link 2025-08-23T00:37Z 11.9K followers, 15.8K engagements
"Open letter to board of $GDEN from @AndrewRangeley Amounts to a take under at 1-2x EBITDA for OpCo stub. I own some shares and agree with Andrews thoughts on this one"
X Link 2025-11-10T13:15Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Previously looked at $APTV SpinCo. now unpacking RemainCo. It's the bigger growthier and higher margin side of the split (RC expects cumulative FCF 4x SC over next 3yrs) 1) Aptiv on a mission to shed ICE and low margin exposure since [----] Delphi spin 2) Remaining businesses = ADAS and infotainment products (intelligent systems) and connectors/cables (engineered components) 3) Fundamentals are good = 6% revenue CAGR since [----] split EBITDA margins 19% vs. spinco at 10% lots of FCF 4) "value creation framework" = targeting 4-7% sales growth 200bps margin expansion mid-teens EPS growth before"
X Link 2025-11-30T15:23Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements
"$LEG received all-stock buyout offer from $SGI at $12 per share I'd do the same if my stock were up 270% over the past few years but this offer is way too low"
X Link 2025-12-01T17:57Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements
"What are some companies youd like to see pursue a spin-off Where are the hidden gem segments hiding out there"
X Link 2025-12-03T15:23Z 11.9K followers, 14K engagements
"$WY hosting first investor day in [--] years and giving financial targets to [----] May have to take a look Whats your favorite multi-year plan idea i.e. management lays out [--] year targets and the company is 12-18 months into executing Whats your favorite multi-year plan idea i.e. management lays out [--] year targets and the company is 12-18 months into executing"
X Link 2025-12-07T13:38Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements
"What was your best performing holding in [----] and did it line up with your original thesis How about worst performing holding too"
X Link 2025-12-11T13:46Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements
"$CNK quick value: 1) #3 movie theater operator in North America w/ 15% market share 2) theaters clobbered during COVID and again from [----] hollywood strikes -- industry box office sales 76% of pre-COVID levels 3) business model has [--] components: 1) ticket sales shared w/ studios = 43-45% product margins; and 2) concession sales = 80%+ margins 4) despite industry headwinds [----] sales are 96% of [----] level (entirely via ticket pricing & concessions) 5) Movie Club loyalty members at 1.45m paying $10.99/month+ and growing 10% = largest paid member base among theaters and drive 30% of ticket sales"
X Link 2026-01-13T19:27Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements
"2) $VSNT hammered post-spin from $CMCSA. consensus view is a BK melting ice cube but plenty of cash will get deployed before (or if) that happens https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/2005300219341078765s=20 $VSNT notes (spin-off from $CMCSA) 1) spin coming Jan [----] [--] share of VSNT for every [--] CMCSA = 145m s/o 2) linear cable networks (MSNBC CNBC Golf USA Networks etc.) -- sales declining 5% annually from 2016-2026E 3) initial [----] guide = $6.275bn sales (3-7% decline) & https://t.co/3Ic3m5abS2 https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/2005300219341078765s=20 $VSNT notes (spin-off from $CMCSA) 1) spin"
X Link 2026-01-14T12:21Z 11.9K followers, [---] engagements
"3) $APTV upcoming spin-off of electrical business (more of a traditional auto supplier) while RemainCo has a nice mix of high margin industrial components. earnings growing too RemainCo: SpinCo: https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1993686782081118302s=20 https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1995151727390072924s=20 A look at upcoming Aptiv spin-off coming in 1Q26. 1) SpinCo = electrical distribution systems (EDS) to be named Cyprium (no ticker yet) 2) EDS makes wire harnesses; cables that connect everything in your car (dashboard battery fuses lights etc.). it's the car's plumbing"
X Link 2026-01-14T12:21Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements
"APTV a big relative underperformer in auto supply over the past [--] years. set to spin off their electrical business in 1Q26 Auto suppliers +8% already this year valuations have changed and many of these are shifting positions Still holding GTX and PHIN but potentially looking to move on I like APTV (both SpinCo & RemainCo) but its flying this year. Hmm https://t.co/3sSPNzFT7E Auto suppliers +8% already this year valuations have changed and many of these are shifting positions Still holding GTX and PHIN but potentially looking to move on I like APTV (both SpinCo & RemainCo) but its flying this"
X Link 2026-01-17T14:11Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements
"@fatbowzi No one is 100% exposed to generics. But they needed that industry to stop cratering in order to return to growth"
X Link 2026-01-19T19:23Z 11.9K followers, [---] engagements
"Interesting divergence of returns in accommodations / lodging / modular rentals $CVEO big-time underperformer past 1yr/3yrs"
X Link 2026-01-20T15:40Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Sandoz on generics/biosimilar market: "the biosimilars and generics market is worth more than $250 billion and it's growing strongly. Driven by increasing share for biosimilars over the next decade we expect about $600 billion of loss of exclusivity opportunities creating a significant opportunity for expansion." https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013670750591373769 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013670750591373769"
X Link 2026-01-20T17:51Z 11.9K followers, [---] engagements
"What is the most repulsive idea in your portfolio Full-on "ick" investing. like what are you ashamed to tell people you own"
X Link 2026-01-21T14:51Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements
"$BAH loses treasury contract shares down 12% today Entire government contractor group selling off lately"
X Link 2026-01-26T17:57Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements
"$OTEX becoming a management change story. [--] non-core divestitures and a new (external) CEO coming"
X Link 2026-02-03T16:05Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements
"@KoyfinCharts Sandoz"
X Link 2026-02-09T01:50Z 11.9K followers, [---] engagements
"@JPSInvestments Lear trades at 10x earnings with 6% EBITDA margins vs. EDS at 10%+ so I'd think it should trade at least in that range Using FCF as proxy ($200-300m) = $2-3bn+ fair value for EDS They expect cumulative FCF of $1bn from '26-28 which implies decent FCF growth too"
X Link 2026-02-11T14:07Z 11.9K followers, [--] engagements
"@RodAlzmann"
X Link 2026-02-12T00:59Z 11.9K followers, [---] engagements
"$MICC Thought this might be a slam dunk spin but everything I'm reading says that 2026-2027 results are gonna suck. Capex jumping from 4% (2024) to 5% Advertising jumping from 12.4% (2024) to 13% Separation costs 365m in '26 & '150m in '27 Restructuring costs 0.8% from 2025-2028 Working capital % sales from 3.3% (2024) to 4.5% No guidance for [----] or [----] only signaling [----] and [----]. hmm. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1998508683479621635 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1998508683479621635"
X Link 2025-12-09T21:42Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Do these estimates adequately reflect the 2026-2027 outlook $MICC gave Stock is trading at 8x EBITDA and 12.5x earnings per these numbers $MICC Thought this might be a slam dunk spin but everything I'm reading says that 2026-2027 results are gonna suck. Capex jumping from 4% (2024) to 5% Advertising jumping from 12.4% (2024) to 13% Separation costs 365m in '26 & '150m in '27 Restructuring costs 0.8% from $MICC Thought this might be a slam dunk spin but everything I'm reading says that 2026-2027 results are gonna suck. Capex jumping from 4% (2024) to 5% Advertising jumping from 12.4% (2024) to"
X Link 2025-12-10T13:24Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Covered the upcoming $BDX special sit this week - RMT transaction + recent $WAT appreciation = cheap stub "New BD" opportunity"
X Link 2025-12-31T14:17Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements
"I like some of these alcohol stocks (long $TAP) but the industry isnt despised enough yet. Thinking back to generics after TEVA blew up it took nearly a decade for those stocks to catch a bid and they still trade at single digit multiples. Prob early still The alcohol industry looks cheap. Volumes are flat to down sentiment is awful and everyone is extrapolating GLP-1s and sobriety culture forever. But - These brands throw off absurd cash - Pricing power still exists in spirits and premium beer - Marketing spend gets cut The alcohol industry looks cheap. Volumes are flat to down sentiment is"
X Link 2026-01-19T01:33Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements
"$DOLE 1) Vertically integrated produce supplier w/ #1-2 position in bananas pineapples grapes - lots of infrastructure here: 110k acres [---] facilities [--] ships etc. 2) Formed via [----] (levered) merger with Total Produce IPO at $16 3) Non-fundamental sell-off in Sep [----] from passing/liquidation of longtime owner & former CEO David Murdock (shares from $15 to $13) 4) Rev + EBITDA steadily growing pre-and-post merger. EBITA mostly flat $380-390m from '21-25 5) FCF + divestitures used to repay debt from '21-24 - capital allocation inflecting toward buybacks ($100m authorization 3Q25 = 8% s/o) 6)"
X Link 2025-11-12T13:07Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements
"4) $DOLE cheap bigcap delevered from [----] merger w/ Total Produce. not really a special sit but a nice earnings growth story over the next few years https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1988594429767061613s=20 $DOLE 1) Vertically integrated produce supplier w/ #1-2 position in bananas pineapples grapes - lots of infrastructure here: 110k acres [---] facilities [--] ships etc. 2) Formed via [----] (levered) merger with Total Produce IPO at $16 3) Non-fundamental sell-off in Sep [----] https://t.co/gsOtlhwYZD https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1988594429767061613s=20 $DOLE 1) Vertically integrated produce"
X Link 2026-01-14T12:21Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements
"These "cheap tech" names just keep getting cheaper. An updated look at my "cheap tech" list Surprised $ZD trading at a discount to $CCSI despite a virtually debt-free balance sheet and better collection of businesses (IMO) https://t.co/JwghQSOQrJ An updated look at my "cheap tech" list Surprised $ZD trading at a discount to $CCSI despite a virtually debt-free balance sheet and better collection of businesses (IMO) https://t.co/JwghQSOQrJ"
X Link 2026-02-01T18:13Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Stock hammered lately"
X Link 2026-02-03T16:06Z 11.9K followers, [---] engagements
"Ideas from Jan 26: 1) $TFX abandoned spin-off for divestiture + CEO change + buybacks 2) $KBR value + catalyst: upcoming spin (2H26) 3) $SXP.TO sale-leaseback capital returns + resuming M&A fundamentals inflecting 4) $CNK beaten down + capital allocation inflection"
X Link 2026-02-03T20:58Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements
"What a crusty 84yo sounds like on an earnings call"
X Link 2026-02-05T15:00Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements
"5) $KBR upcoming spin + trading at a big discount to government contractor peers. solid earnings growth & FCF https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/2015071717325152645s=20 $KBR quick value upcoming spin (2H26) of MTS segment (government contractor) 1) MTS segment (SpinCo) = government contractor; focus on space/logistics (vs. peers heavier into IT data cyber intelligence) 2) STS segment (RemainCo) = consulting services + IP licensing for https://t.co/kOTZUpyngb https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/2015071717325152645s=20 $KBR quick value upcoming spin (2H26) of MTS segment (government contractor) 1)"
X Link 2026-02-05T18:53Z 11.9K followers, [---] engagements
"1) cash flow support is known in acquisition loan vs unknown in startup/existing/project loan 2) purchase multiples (were) lower = more DSCR support 3) 10yr am on SBA 7a vs 4-7 C&I I think about this chart a lot. Why do SBA acquisition loans perfom better My answer: 3rd party diligence (buyer QofE deal team). None of that exists when a loan is made to an existing business or a start-up. Buyer diligence is the key. The deal team results in better https://t.co/vTEaWT7kKV I think about this chart a lot. Why do SBA acquisition loans perfom better My answer: 3rd party diligence (buyer QofE deal"
X Link 2026-02-06T23:13Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements
"$ALSN Caught this pitch from Meryl Witmer in Barron's roundtable and liked it. Here are my notes: 1) Dominant market share (80%) in transmissions for buses & class 6-8 trucks (on-highway) 2) Huge margins (30%+ EBITDA) but highly cyclical = long-run average P/E at 9-10x 3) Recently acquired off-highway business from $DAN for $2.7bn - adds $2.5bn sales & $350m EBITDA 4) Changes mix from 3% off-highway to 50% off-highway international from 22% to 44% transmissions now 50% of sales 5) Deal synergies + recovering end-markets + buybacks = EPS could hit $12+ by 2027-2028 (vs. $8-9 today) 6) Capital"
X Link 2026-02-07T21:30Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements
"A look at 18-year financial performance at $ALSN and [---] years of the recently acquired $DAN off-highway business"
X Link 2026-02-08T14:45Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements
"This company sold a business unit in their fiscal 4Q25 and is virtually debt-free. what do we think"
X Link 2026-02-09T14:11Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements
"If a new (external) CEO joined a company 2yrs ago and cleaned things up while shares are flat would you still consider it a "management change" story"
X Link 2026-02-09T19:28Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Vermont Flannel turns [--] years old in [----] Team did an amazing job telling the story and built a cool 90's throwback tee to celebrate. https://www.vermontflannel.com/blogs/blog/celebrating-35-years-of-flannel https://www.vermontflannel.com/blogs/blog/celebrating-35-years-of-flannel"
X Link 2026-02-10T17:23Z 11.9K followers, [---] engagements
"Today I'm pulling some flowers to water the weeds"
X Link 2026-02-10T17:54Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements
"$MAT Shares down 30% pre-market on Q4 results. guiding 8-16% EPS decline in FY26 (includes $400m buybacks) Will need to take another look at this one"
X Link 2026-02-11T13:32Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Ive missed a few outperforming spins lately Need to dial it in"
X Link 2026-02-11T23:38Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements
"$ATNI Announces divestiture of US tower portfolio for $250-270m gross proceeds ($180-195m net) Net proceeds are 40-45% of current market ($425m) $10-13m hit to EBITDA on a full year basis I have shares trading at 5x EV/EBITDA with less than 1.8x leverage"
X Link 2026-02-12T15:22Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Love this diagram of auto supplier universe cross-section of: (1) scale/revenue; (2) margin profile; and (3) cash conversion In the bullseye are $BWA $DCH and $APTV (long)"
X Link 2026-02-13T16:13Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements
"If you couldn't tell writing up $FTV $RAL spin for tomorrow's newsletter (free) I'm fascinated by these businesses despite the stupid multiples they trade at. maybe something here though $FTV is cheapest and worst performing industrial conglomerate in the group Hmm. Converting EBITDA into FCF at an 83% clip is pretty impressive https://t.co/n0HbOD17b6 Converting EBITDA into FCF at an 83% clip is pretty impressive https://t.co/n0HbOD17b6"
X Link 2025-06-22T16:15Z 11.4K followers, [----] engagements
"Unallocated corporate costs as % of sales -- what's a reasonable amount Here's $HHS running at 5-7% with a [--] segment business (feels high)"
X Link 2025-06-23T11:42Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements
"$PINC is another one at 10% of sales. granted they divested some businesses recently https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1819745538507686293 $PINC needs an activist in there. botched ASR slow moving sale process for other non-core businesses and bloated corporate costs. Spending 10% sales and 25% of segment EBITDA on corporate costs cc @AltaFoxCapital https://t.co/DNxggfmM2y https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1819745538507686293 $PINC needs an activist in there. botched ASR slow moving sale process for other non-core businesses and bloated corporate costs. Spending 10% sales and 25% of segment"
X Link 2025-06-23T11:43Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements
"FTV set to spin-off Ralliant $RAL in a few days: 1) Ralliant (SpinCo) -- test & measurement + sensors & safety. "cash cow" focused on M&A + capital returns 2) Fortive (RemainCo) -- advanced healthcare solutions (AHS) & intelligent operating solutions (IOS). organic growth"
X Link 2025-06-24T13:29Z 11.4K followers, [---] engagements
"$RAL SpinCo $2.1bn sales / $430m FCF = flat from 2022-1Q25. includes $1.5bn acquisition in Jan [----]. Hmm. Mgmt targeting: 1) 3% organic growth + 1% M&A growth = 3-5% growth 2) S&S margins high-20s + T&M mid-teens to low-20s = low-to-mid-20s combined EBITDA margins 3) 2% capex = 95% FCF conversion ($1bn cumulative FCF through 2028) 4) $1bn net debt = 1.9x leverage Fundamentals at SpinCo look very meh"
X Link 2025-06-24T13:29Z 11.4K followers, [---] engagements
"$FTV RemainCo $4.1bn sales / $960m FCF = growing nicely. after years of M&A currently on a 3.5yr hiatus for major deals Mgmt targeting: 1) 3-4% organic growth (50% recurring) 2) 29% EBITDA margins (close to industry best-in-class) 3) HSD EPS growth 4) $1.2bn net debt = 1.7x leverage (targeting 2.5x gross debt) Fundamentals here look very solid and all/mostly organic. looks like an excellent business"
X Link 2025-06-24T13:29Z 11.4K followers, [---] engagements
"@taobanker Can you add net leverage to that Might also be a [--] year low"
X Link 2025-06-27T07:20Z 11.3K followers, [---] engagements
"@retaox Sandoz"
X Link 2025-06-29T21:39Z 11.4K followers, [----] engagements
"Starz $STRZ Recently spun off lions gate studio biz. Pure play DTC streaming with low exposure to linear cable (30% of revs). Was captive source of cash inside lions gate (ie overspend on content) and that will unwind next 1-2 years leading to tons of cash flow $16/sh x 16.8m s/o = $270m market cap + $615m net debt = $885m EV. Guiding to 15% margins or $200m OIBDA in [----] (4.4x EV/EBITDA). Management thinks they can hit 20% margins in a few years with simple levers. At 5.5x $200m = $23/sh vs $16. I think thats low. Deserves to trade at premium to AMCX at worst (less exposure to linear and"
X Link 2025-07-01T06:40Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements
"$CNC about to fit this bill. flat share price since mid-2017 (8yrs) https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1940231837558952354 @JohnHuber72 I think Dreman outlined a similar strategy too. Specifically stocks that were not falling knives but flatlining. Good opportunity for reset of investor expectations after a few years of sideways performance. This is one of my favorite places to find new ideas. https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1940231837558952354 @JohnHuber72 I think Dreman outlined a similar strategy too. Specifically stocks that were not falling knives but flatlining. Good opportunity for"
X Link 2025-07-02T09:15Z 11.4K followers, [----] engagements
"@kingdomcapadv @capitalemployed Finally going to do some work on this one do you have a single write-up as best place to start"
X Link 2025-07-03T02:35Z 11.4K followers, [---] engagements
"$RAL spin-off trading at $45 on 113m s/o = $5bn market cap. FCF guide looks like a potential landmine compared to carve-out f/s. $1bn cumulative through [----] = $285-333m per year vs. $400m () 15-17x FCF. not quite there yet. Backdrop looks similar to [----] $KEYS spin"
X Link 2025-07-05T12:43Z 11.4K followers, [----] engagements
"John Train described Buffett's approach to managing the portfolio as: Sitting with "half a dozen or so core holdings plus a dozen or so held for possible resale" What are your core holdings right now"
X Link 2025-07-05T12:45Z 11.4K followers, [----] engagements
"@blueprintsmb22 Hmm Evelyn just called me about a loan approval"
X Link 2025-07-12T16:26Z 11.4K followers, [---] engagements
"@SFarringtonBKC likewise on BW. i like the entire cap structure (and LEAPs) refuse is strong word for UNFI. actively dislike as opposed to "not interested""
X Link 2025-07-12T21:03Z 11.4K followers, [---] engagements
"2006-2014 EPS basically flat then exploded through [----]. I find these coiled spring situations really fascinating. If you can find a good but nowhere business with some sort of regime change or strategy change. FD: I have no idea what changed at BRO from 06-14 to 14-24 [--]. Brown & Brown $BRO Brown & Brown is a serial acquirer of small independent insurance agencies and brokerages in the U.S. Their support/scale advantages help smaller agencies expand their business once under their umbrella. Total Return: +41900% https://t.co/dyDiu21DZI [--]. Brown & Brown $BRO Brown & Brown is a serial acquirer"
X Link 2025-07-15T18:31Z 11.4K followers, [----] engagements
"$BW - Quick Value E&C turnaround making progress on the balance sheet. After a dozen or so asset sales + divestitures since [----] it looks like they might finally be on sound footing. https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1930646328574402782 Maybe I need to revisit $BW as a call option and the baby bonds as a legit investment here. 1) anticipate positive [----] cash flow 2) swapped $132m [----] debt to [----] at discount 3) asset sale for $20m 4) another asset sale for $177m 5) backlog / bookings +47% / +11% https://t.co/TQJqabCc6z https://x.com/valuedontlie/status/1930646328574402782 Maybe I need to"
X Link 2025-07-21T18:00Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements
"1) Background + history E&C firm with [--] segments: renewable environmental thermal. Thermal is profitable workhorse. Revenue from mix of parts service and construction. See screenshot of corporate history / how they got into their current mess"
X Link 2025-07-21T18:00Z 11.4K followers, [--] engagements
"2) Starting with the bad news. Not going to sugarcoat the situation quite a bit of hair on it: - high leverage - maturity wall in [----] - no cash flow since [----] - earnings are heavily adjusted - "other" liabilities (prefs pension etc.)"
X Link 2025-07-21T18:00Z 11.5K followers, [---] engagements
"3) the good news. $BW is raising cash buying time and paying down debt 1) $120m divestitures in [----] + $200m in 1H25 2) swapped $130m debt for $100m w/ longer maturity 3) back to positive CF in '25 4) tendering for $70m debt at discount 5) backlog and bookings growing"
X Link 2025-07-21T18:00Z 11.5K followers, [---] engagements
"4) hydrogen call option BW developing hydrogen production (BrightLoop) technology on verge of commercialization Currently spending $9-10m per year Could see 10-50 tons/day by [----] = $40-100m per "plant" at 25% gross margin"
X Link 2025-07-21T18:00Z 11.4K followers, [---] engagements
"$AMPY announcing strategic update and CEO change Exploring sale of East Texas + Oklahoma assets which would make this nearly 100% oil-based CEO change unsurprising given prior management pushed for unsuccessful merger"
X Link 2025-07-22T16:45Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements
"@DannyOcean555 @ACapitalLP Is PRKS asymmetric How so"
X Link 2025-07-22T23:41Z 11.4K followers, [---] engagements
"@GuyImpatient"
X Link 2025-07-24T00:20Z 11.4K followers, [---] engagements
"Markets might be crazy overpriced but at least you can buy Pfizer at [----] levels"
X Link 2025-07-25T17:30Z 11.4K followers, [----] engagements
"$STRZ bear thesis. they weren't included in $CHTR slide on "expensive" OTT package"
X Link 2025-07-26T18:39Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements
"@qualitybargain Interesting. what's the TL trading at right now"
X Link 2025-07-28T23:49Z 11.4K followers, [---] engagements
"$UNFI Bumpy ride over the past 10yrs but entering an interesting point here. middle-innings turnaround + deleveraging story. A quick look"
X Link 2025-07-30T12:49Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Turnaround. New management laid out 3-year plan in Oct 2024: 1) Flat revenue (i.e. no growth from FY25-27) 2) EBITDA growth HSD (from $550m base) 3) FCF margin of 0.5% or better (by FY27) 4) Net leverage 2.5x by FY27 Note: UNFI is July yearend so nearing FY25 completion"
X Link 2025-07-30T12:49Z 11.6K followers, [---] engagements
"Turnaround. How are things going so far 1) Revenue growing ($31.7bn FY25 guide vs. $31bn plan) 2) EBITDA ahead of plan $575-615m for FY25 3) FCF ramping faster than expected (Oct24 guide = $100m now expect $200m) 4) Net leverage at 2.5x target by FY26 (full year early)"
X Link 2025-07-30T12:49Z 11.6K followers, [---] engagements
"If pacing ahead of 3-yr plan why are shares cheap 1) Debt - still sitting at 3.5x leverage and guiding 2.5x next year. need combo EBITDA growth & higher FCF 2) Cyber incident - $350-400m lost sales + $40-50m lost EBITDA. mgmt says "contained" but need to see"
X Link 2025-07-30T12:49Z 11.4K followers, [---] engagements
"So what are shares worth FY27 consensus = $650m EBITDA 61m s/o x $28 = $1.7bn cap + $1.6bn net debt (FY26 est.) = $3.3bn EV At 6-7x = $38-49 per share (16-30% IRR from todays $28/share) Maybe conservative too Estimates haven't "gotten ahead of themselves" just yet Hmm"
X Link 2025-07-30T12:49Z 11.4K followers, [---] engagements
"Earnings call had [--] nice quarter guys and the stock is down 20% Didnt see that coming"
X Link 2025-07-30T21:39Z 11.4K followers, [----] engagements
"@jjtejkl Reading and using financial statements (thrilling)"
X Link 2025-08-04T18:59Z 11.5K followers, [--] engagements
"My southwest flight purchase comes with [--] months of $SIRI Hmm"
X Link 2025-08-08T01:02Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Barrons arguing $PARA is interesting / could work because Ellisons are rich Outside money either dilutive or has a cost how much additional capital does this thing need"
X Link 2025-08-10T12:59Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Looking for some good additions to study/working music chill/lofi/downtempo Currently listening to: Attom Blackmill Barnacle Boi Blue Wednesday Wys Give me your deepest cuts"
X Link 2025-08-11T21:31Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Family is traveling which means I get some bonus free time to look at stocks this evening Thinking of doing a livestream review of my watchlist / stock tracker and crank out some updates real time"
X Link 2025-08-12T20:16Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Solid addition Also pandora still has best new music discovery IMO"
X Link 2025-08-14T01:45Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements
"@_99Paul99 By generating substantial cash flow. they spend $600-700m per year on content spend and $378m of those CL are content payables This isn't an asset heavy business model so I wouldn't expect to see CA CL"
X Link 2025-08-15T11:41Z 11.6K followers, [--] engagements
"Will add some more thoughts later"
X Link 2025-08-16T01:31Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements
"a) they already have a sizable customer base b) mid-tier offering not trying to be the core subscription (nflx prime ytv etc) c) I believe bundling will come back via aggregators (prime ytv etc) where you can get various packages of channels d) I believe theyre better positioned than some legacy cable channels where you cant see underlying sub trends (think CMCSA/WBD spins)"
X Link 2025-08-16T02:15Z 11.5K followers, [---] engagements
"@JPSInvestments How well do you understand the actual product itself Feels outside my wheelhouse"
X Link 2025-08-18T17:12Z 11.5K followers, [---] engagements
"Costco shrimp x st elmo cocktail sauce"
X Link 2025-08-18T21:57Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements
"@JPSInvestments Thanks Agreed"
X Link 2025-08-18T22:41Z 11.6K followers, [--] engagements
"@CayucosCapital @LukeWolgram Sellers discretionary earnings. Basically cash flow + owner comp"
X Link 2025-08-19T01:22Z 11.5K followers, [--] engagements
"A trickle of insider buying at $CE"
X Link 2025-08-19T19:06Z 11.7K followers, [----] engagements
"Thanks for your help folks. whittled the tracker down to [--] names and then added [--] from suggestions. Doing another livestream at 8:30pm ET. why not. Doing another livestream at 8:30pm ET. why not"
X Link 2025-08-22T01:24Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements
"If all alcohol (esp. beer) is secularly challenged. why haven't earnings multiples compressed more And why such a relative undervaluation to now underlevered $TAP"
X Link 2025-08-22T13:01Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Surprised PE isn't after this one. could leverage existing cash flow to buy the company and 1-2 dividend recaps later you have a stellar IRR/MOIC with minimal equity invested. Not like it's in secular decline or anything either. Market cap is $280m"
X Link 2025-08-23T00:47Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements
"@dstressedcos Is that across all categories of alcohol or specific to the lower end "cheap" beers"
X Link 2025-08-23T02:33Z 11.5K followers, [--] engagements
"Both series of $BW baby bonds quickly approaching par. still hanging onto some equity (basically a call option) but prob time to move on from baby bonds Interesting how slowly the market digested the deleveraging moves here. $BW with a newly approved debt buyback plan $BW with a newly approved debt buyback plan"
X Link 2025-08-27T14:25Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements
"How do you define "special situation""
X Link 2025-08-28T13:28Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Best way to game your company's dividend growth Take it out to [--] decimal places"
X Link 2025-08-28T15:03Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Re-segmenting reclassifying financial results and disc. ops are extremely irritating when you're trying to get a clear picture of a business over a [--] year stretch. Especially when results are reclassified back to an older reporting method"
X Link 2025-09-01T19:07Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Link to full write up https://www.valuedontlie.com/p/quick-value-282-live-pitney-bowes https://www.valuedontlie.com/p/quick-value-282-live-pitney-bowes"
X Link 2025-09-03T15:01Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements
"@bullsbayretail @DOMOCAPITAL I mean sales are literally declining for over a decade segment earnings stable more recently (Dont get me wrong Im a fan of the story; but wouldnt call this growing just yet)"
X Link 2025-09-03T20:16Z 11.6K followers, [---] engagements
"@DOMOCAPITAL I'm seeing $420m in [----] and $500m in [----] per 4Q24 earnings release"
X Link 2025-09-08T17:02Z 11.6K followers, [---] engagements
"@DOMOCAPITAL Yea understood on the EBITDA multiples and agreed. My cash flow numbers are real (came from cash flow statement excluding disc ops). the $330m guide for [----] excludes any Rx costs from what I remember"
X Link 2025-09-08T17:45Z 11.6K followers, [---] engagements
"@atelicinvest Not amazing but consistently 10% of sales Balance sheet was/is the main problem (as is the case in most 4-5x EBITDA situations it seems)"
X Link 2025-09-09T02:01Z 11.6K followers, [---] engagements
"Interesting SMB listing. this is the sort of thing that prob doesn't interest searcher crowd but it's a sold earnings base and straightforward business model in a decent industry"
X Link 2025-09-12T12:55Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements
"@TiehackCapital Per share net income flat for [--] years despite $5m higher revenue"
X Link 2025-09-17T01:36Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements
"@SleepwellCap @compoundpapi @vanckzhu I dont think its a record store at $4m sales. Im guessing its instrument based maybe with services. Like a Sweetwater"
X Link 2025-09-17T21:53Z 11.6K followers, [---] engagements
"@KairosPraxis I love the setup honestly. [--] very distinct phases of company history since [----] CEO change happened in [----] Sold a business for very low multiple after FY25 which is impacting FY26 guide"
X Link 2025-09-18T23:22Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Is $FLR officially a negative EV with $SMR at $46-47"
X Link 2025-09-19T22:14Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements
"@bizalmanac Have been meaning to look at EEFT"
X Link 2025-09-24T16:09Z 11.6K followers, [---] engagements
"$TGT bull case in a nutshell @porterstansb call me crazy but i'd much rather be long than short a consumer defensive retailer with 2x EBITDA in debt spitting off billions in free cash at a ttm PE of 10x and paying a 5% yield. still a staple beloved in-store experience for women. also their trail mix section is awesome @porterstansb call me crazy but i'd much rather be long than short a consumer defensive retailer with 2x EBITDA in debt spitting off billions in free cash at a ttm PE of 10x and paying a 5% yield. still a staple beloved in-store experience for women. also their trail mix section"
X Link 2025-09-26T01:08Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements
"@FishtownCap What happened to cause the price divergence"
X Link 2025-09-26T15:35Z 11.7K followers, [---] engagements
"Did something happen at $AMPY recently"
X Link 2025-09-26T18:44Z 11.7K followers, [----] engagements
"@JohnHuber72 @kingdomcapadv @AKWilk @natstewart5 To some extent I am taking the side of more regular publishing :) I do write on [--] ideas per year - granted 5-10 of those are typically actionable and I (try to) call that out as they come @AKWilk Why do all posts need to be actionable high conviction ideas Those can come as they do but youre still researching and evaluating companies regularly. I enjoy working through my watchlist and to do pile in a weekly format. Even if not always immediately actionable. @AKWilk Why do all posts need to be actionable high conviction ideas Those can come as"
X Link 2025-10-01T14:34Z 11.6K followers, [---] engagements
"$KVUE now 5% yield Anyone working on this given all the tylenol press How do you handicap those risks Some cheap bigger caps trading at 4-6% dividend yields: $MO $TGT $TAP $HRL $KEY $CVX $HPQ $SWK $KVUE $AMCR $CMCSA Some cheap bigger caps trading at 4-6% dividend yields: $MO $TGT $TAP $HRL $KEY $CVX $HPQ $SWK $KVUE $AMCR $CMCSA"
X Link 2025-10-01T17:29Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements
"How many of your holdings track performance using GAAP results No stock comp add-backs no restructuring add-backs not even intangible amortization"
X Link 2025-10-07T14:11Z 11.7K followers, [----] engagements
"@rogercfr Im not sure yet. I still think an RMT with WBD makes sense. Its also likely one of these will act as consolidator for smaller channels/networks. Theyll likely want an app to go OTT and then bank on vMVPD continuing to grow"
X Link 2025-10-10T14:13Z 11.6K followers, [---] engagements
"File this one away The market cannot look past declining assets/businesses even if highly profitable or cash generative or insanely cheap Stocks follow earnings MRNA suffering through this now"
X Link 2025-10-12T12:24Z 11.7K followers, [----] engagements
"If you were wondering why the latest rounds of QE have failed to create rampant inflation it's because of this: http://t.co/rZGXdoGbn2"
X Link 2015-01-15T19:52Z 10K followers, [--] engagements
"hennessy small-cap japan fund $HJPSX average holding trades at 10x earnings 0.95x BV and 6x CF @ChrisMayerAgora"
X Link 2015-04-14T13:24Z 10.4K followers, [--] engagements
"$GLCH wins $17.8m in arbitration against RW Baird http://t.co/ZEVESKWXH1 http://bit.ly/1G3IT2J http://bit.ly/1G3IT2J"
X Link 2015-06-17T15:25Z 10K followers, [--] engagements
"$FAST 2Q15 http://t.co/2PqviGL8QF hands down this company provides the best quarterly releases http://bit.ly/1TzTryZ http://bit.ly/1TzTryZ"
X Link 2015-07-14T13:58Z 10K followers, [--] engagements
"well timed @barronsonline $GRMN cutting outlook http://t.co/TuY77BrVhM http://bit.ly/1fLOtAU http://bit.ly/1fLOtAU"
X Link 2015-07-16T13:25Z 10K followers, [--] engagements
"in 2Q15 $NFLX paid $1.27bn for additional streaming content while $TWC $CMCSA $CHTR $DTV $DISH had a combined $10.8bn in programming expense"
X Link 2015-08-20T17:18Z 10K followers, [--] engagements
"durable goods vs. $FAST $GWW daily sales growth http://t.co/uq9mdNHN6j"
X Link 2015-08-28T16:28Z 11.6K followers, [--] engagements
"is traditional retail really the appropriate comp set for $EBAY http://t.co/4a67o6hFWJ"
X Link 2015-09-02T19:35Z 10K followers, [--] engagements
"Any thoughts out there on $ST In a way reminds me of $ADI which I regard as a very good business"
X Link 2015-10-08T20:39Z 10K followers, [--] engagements
"$FAST 3Q15 best press release among public cos http://t.co/Eu9wuxFOPA http://bit.ly/1VQiJrR http://bit.ly/1VQiJrR"
X Link 2015-10-13T13:49Z 10K followers, [--] engagements
"Quaterly comments from $GWW CEO http://t.co/aIwm5Qi8hW"
X Link 2015-10-16T13:27Z 11.6K followers, [--] engagements
"prison facility operator $CXW seems cheap and to lesser extent peer $GEO - worries over rate rise prison occupancy fears"
X Link 2015-12-07T16:43Z 10K followers, [--] engagements
"$XCO Q4 results - http://bit.ly/1SlKJ9a http://bit.ly/1SlKJ9a"
X Link 2016-03-03T19:16Z 10K followers, [--] engagements
"What are the odds $AME combines with $FTV someday"
X Link 2016-06-09T19:01Z 10K followers, [--] engagements
"$HON spinning off pos chemical company - AdvanSix Inc - http://bit.ly/2atKbxo http://bit.ly/2atKbxo"
X Link 2016-07-26T13:39Z 10K followers, [--] engagements
"@webkowuite @rubicon59 HJPSX"
X Link 2016-09-10T18:49Z 10.4K followers, [--] engagements
"@YoloCapMgt @17thStCap @BaseHitInvestor @TheSovaGroup @PlanMaestro EISMX -- guy has unbelievably low turnover and good numbers"
X Link 2016-11-06T20:07Z 11.4K followers, [--] engagements
"@ERMICLLC @ValueDude $BDVB has had some wild swings since trading began. i thought Q1 results were better than expected. have been buying on swings"
X Link 2017-05-31T13:41Z 11.4K followers, [--] engagements
"someone made quick $50 on $BDVB"
X Link 2017-06-16T13:44Z 11.4K followers, [--] engagements
"this seems like a silly way to look at $RAD post-sale"
X Link 2017-06-30T13:27Z 10K followers, [--] engagements
"$ARMK just raised my mfg co's biweekly prices by 26% from $95 to $120"
X Link 2017-08-25T12:30Z 10K followers, [--] engagements
"$UWN sets comp targets for FY18. would put this at something like 5.2x EBITDA w 25% of market cap in cash on B/S. cc @ragnarisapirate"
X Link 2017-09-13T17:15Z 10K followers, [--] engagements
"good overview of the $RSO situation -- https://seekingalpha.com/article/4115708-resource-capital-buy-good-news https://seekingalpha.com/article/4115708-resource-capital-buy-good-news"
X Link 2017-10-25T15:15Z 10K followers, [--] engagements
"if you're not above making $100 -- might want to check out the $BDVB reverse split / go private deal"
X Link 2017-11-17T21:39Z 11.4K followers, [--] engagements
"$AWLCF had both their recent "awards" pulled. ouchie"
X Link 2018-02-15T14:10Z 10.6K followers, [--] engagements
Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
/creator/twitter::valuedontlie