[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.] [@patio11](/creator/twitter/patio11) "@PaulLambertNZ Retailers dont pay 4%; they pay closer to XXX% with the bank making up the difference on charge bases which probably hit six figures for a lot of the portfolio. An expensive education"  [@patio11](/creator/x/patio11) on [X](/post/tweet/1950005052506087726) 2025-07-29 01:26:48 UTC 182.9K followers, 4888 engagements "(Partly that is due to risk transfer to the GSEs and partly it is due to the policy decision to make a commanding share of all mortgages into Processed Mortgage Product which are now fungible streams of cash flow entirely described by a row of data in Excel.)"  [@patio11](/creator/x/patio11) on [X](/post/tweet/1948164607153246490) 2025-07-23 23:33:32 UTC 182.9K followers, 8338 engagements "Me immediately to LLM: well Id be lying if I hadnt considered it. But I wont for *reasons.*"  [@patio11](/creator/x/patio11) on [X](/post/tweet/1948331634433929410) 2025-07-24 10:37:14 UTC 182.9K followers, 8545 engagements "It had never occurred to me that this would be part of the CRE sales process but of course it is. (One of the magic bits of conforming mortgages is that you *dont* have to inquire about creditworthiness after it is a conforming mortgage.)"  [@patio11](/creator/x/patio11) on [X](/post/tweet/1948164205145924044) 2025-07-23 23:31:56 UTC 182.9K followers, 26.6K engagements "As an example if you can pay your taxes on a CC with that being positive economics to you which is *quite rare* net of the CC fee that one of the govts outsourced providers will charge there is an opportunity for gamesmanship"  [@patio11](/creator/x/patio11) on [X](/post/tweet/1950014755982266419) 2025-07-29 02:05:22 UTC 182.9K followers, 15.4K engagements "@PaulLambertNZ No the bank here was just briefly losing a substantial amount of money. (My confidence in this on seeing the offer months ago was high and after seeing that letter it is very high.)"  [@patio11](/creator/x/patio11) on [X](/post/tweet/1950005718159151205) 2025-07-29 01:29:27 UTC 182.9K followers, 1805 engagements "Japanese toilets often have an exhortation about cleanliness but this one is the hardest Ive ever seen. JapaneseA soiled toilet reflects the filth of your soul./Japanese EnglishKeep Clean This Restroom/English"  [@patio11](/creator/x/patio11) on [X](/post/tweet/1949451618484937160) 2025-07-27 12:47:39 UTC 182.9K followers, 144.1K engagements "How does this happen Credit card PMs are extremely aware that there are multiple different personas for credit card use out there. One of them has a name in various banks but you can think of them as Mercenary Financial Enthusiast"  [@patio11](/creator/x/patio11) on [X](/post/tweet/1950007431339151810) 2025-07-29 01:36:15 UTC 182.9K followers, 16.1K engagements "@atroyn There is a grey market in diverted Tide and packs of soda in diverse geographies where bodegas will buy the Tide for cash and soda largely goes P2P according to published reporting"  [@patio11](/creator/x/patio11) on [X](/post/tweet/1948598685291683948) 2025-07-25 04:18:24 UTC 182.9K followers, 61.7K engagements "LLM tried to convince me after I asked a question about monetization of a gambling-adjacent game at an arcade that perhaps I should consider it time well spent due to the possibility of getting a BAM issue out of it. Tsk tsk"  [@patio11](/creator/x/patio11) on [X](/post/tweet/1948331317415833895) 2025-07-24 10:35:58 UTC 182.9K followers, 12.4K engagements "This isnt merely at the level of the micro mechanics or prompt engineering or context engineering. There are entire modes of working that lean into what the LLM does best and the amount of time you can spend on them is not fixed across all sessions or projects"  [@patio11](/creator/x/patio11) on [X](/post/tweet/1947861344562389458) 2025-07-23 03:28:28 UTC 182.8K followers, 2916 engagements "Skill cap is a gamerism. It captures the intuition that there are some games where the difference between best player and worst player is marginal tic tac toh and others where this is very untrue and one can study the game for a lifetime while improving continually (poker go)"  [@patio11](/creator/x/patio11) on [X](/post/tweet/1947860516057346472) 2025-07-23 03:25:11 UTC 182.8K followers, 3679 engagements "This week on Complex Systems Cate Hall and I talk about agency cultivating it in oneself environments/orgs which seem to suppress or encourage it. Also a bit about walking roads less travelled. 00:00 Intro 02:38 Exploring the concept of agency 03:08 Selection effects in different fields 03:45 The changing demographics in tech and startups 06:52 The rise of systematization in poker and startups 17:27 The role of mental habits in developing agency 22:25 The value of feedback and continuous improvement 25:33 The power of admitting ignorance 27:29 Growth mindset and personal improvement 28:18"  [@patio11](/creator/x/patio11) on [X](/post/tweet/1945976448793379105) 2025-07-17 22:38:34 UTC 182.9K followers, 31.5K engagements "They might only be able to determine on a portfolio level months after the fact with delay due to some combination of the natural shape of IT accounting processes and necessity for manual work by business analysts who might not be specifically assigned to a particular product"  [@patio11](/creator/x/patio11) on [X](/post/tweet/1950009831118499942) 2025-07-29 01:45:47 UTC 182.9K followers, 10.2K engagements "This letter is what happens when a credit card PM misunderestimates how much of an adverse selection effect they have in a new portfolio"  [@patio11](/creator/x/patio11) on [X](/post/tweet/1950003011549298953) 2025-07-29 01:18:41 UTC 182.9K followers, 304.7K engagements "(Theyre disproportionately wealthy and disproportionately consume lots of financial services and they are good about paying their bills on time because otherwise they get drummed out of their favorite hobby.)"  [@patio11](/creator/x/patio11) on [X](/post/tweet/1950008589826855209) 2025-07-29 01:40:51 UTC 182.9K followers, 11.9K engagements "@PaulLambertNZ You seem to be interested in making a different set of points than I am and they are generic to credit cards as a payment mechanism versus specific to adverse selection. If youd like to read more about my thoughts on those points:"  [@patio11](/creator/x/patio11) on [X](/post/tweet/1950006260046123172) 2025-07-29 01:31:36 UTC 182.9K followers, 1672 engagements "(In particular note the cap on cash back and the carveout for particular transaction types which some users are able to generate arbitrarily high amounts of or would naturally have arbitrarily high amounts relative to normal CC use.)"  [@patio11](/creator/x/patio11) on [X](/post/tweet/1950003342429561191) 2025-07-29 01:20:00 UTC 182.9K followers, 16K engagements "For example you could pay estimated taxes of oh $500k. Net +/- $10k of CC rewards iff bank is not on the ball. Whoops sorry seems I was overly conservative in my estimation. My actual taxes were a much lower number. Refund the difference please"  [@patio11](/creator/x/patio11) on [X](/post/tweet/1950015148296437823) 2025-07-29 02:06:55 UTC 182.9K followers, 15.4K engagements "Anyhow when you have assets where the valuation is materially tied to ongoing cash flow from a small number of customers who actually do have creditworthiness as a material constraint valuing the asset requires some POV on customer creditworthiness today and in future"  [@patio11](/creator/x/patio11) on [X](/post/tweet/1948164953963409680) 2025-07-23 23:34:54 UTC 182.9K followers, 7724 engagements "A perhaps surprising thing about financial technology: it may be difficult for many large institutions to know on an account by account level whether the account is contribution positive"  [@patio11](/creator/x/patio11) on [X](/post/tweet/1950009469766680722) 2025-07-29 01:44:21 UTC 182.9K followers, 10.7K engagements "I increasingly think the skill cap for LLM-assisted engineering is probably about as high as for engineering generally. (Its certainly deeper than e.g. Excel and there are OOMs in Excel proficiency.)"  [@patio11](/creator/x/patio11) on [X](/post/tweet/1947859778912587886) 2025-07-23 03:22:15 UTC 182.9K followers, 54.9K engagements
[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]
@patio11
"@PaulLambertNZ Retailers dont pay 4%; they pay closer to XXX% with the bank making up the difference on charge bases which probably hit six figures for a lot of the portfolio. An expensive education"
@patio11 on X 2025-07-29 01:26:48 UTC 182.9K followers, 4888 engagements
"(Partly that is due to risk transfer to the GSEs and partly it is due to the policy decision to make a commanding share of all mortgages into Processed Mortgage Product which are now fungible streams of cash flow entirely described by a row of data in Excel.)" @patio11 on X 2025-07-23 23:33:32 UTC 182.9K followers, 8338 engagements
"Me immediately to LLM: well Id be lying if I hadnt considered it. But I wont for reasons." @patio11 on X 2025-07-24 10:37:14 UTC 182.9K followers, 8545 engagements
"It had never occurred to me that this would be part of the CRE sales process but of course it is. (One of the magic bits of conforming mortgages is that you dont have to inquire about creditworthiness after it is a conforming mortgage.)" @patio11 on X 2025-07-23 23:31:56 UTC 182.9K followers, 26.6K engagements
"As an example if you can pay your taxes on a CC with that being positive economics to you which is quite rare net of the CC fee that one of the govts outsourced providers will charge there is an opportunity for gamesmanship" @patio11 on X 2025-07-29 02:05:22 UTC 182.9K followers, 15.4K engagements
"@PaulLambertNZ No the bank here was just briefly losing a substantial amount of money. (My confidence in this on seeing the offer months ago was high and after seeing that letter it is very high.)" @patio11 on X 2025-07-29 01:29:27 UTC 182.9K followers, 1805 engagements
"Japanese toilets often have an exhortation about cleanliness but this one is the hardest Ive ever seen. JapaneseA soiled toilet reflects the filth of your soul./Japanese EnglishKeep Clean This Restroom/English" @patio11 on X 2025-07-27 12:47:39 UTC 182.9K followers, 144.1K engagements
"How does this happen Credit card PMs are extremely aware that there are multiple different personas for credit card use out there. One of them has a name in various banks but you can think of them as Mercenary Financial Enthusiast" @patio11 on X 2025-07-29 01:36:15 UTC 182.9K followers, 16.1K engagements
"@atroyn There is a grey market in diverted Tide and packs of soda in diverse geographies where bodegas will buy the Tide for cash and soda largely goes P2P according to published reporting" @patio11 on X 2025-07-25 04:18:24 UTC 182.9K followers, 61.7K engagements
"LLM tried to convince me after I asked a question about monetization of a gambling-adjacent game at an arcade that perhaps I should consider it time well spent due to the possibility of getting a BAM issue out of it. Tsk tsk" @patio11 on X 2025-07-24 10:35:58 UTC 182.9K followers, 12.4K engagements
"This isnt merely at the level of the micro mechanics or prompt engineering or context engineering. There are entire modes of working that lean into what the LLM does best and the amount of time you can spend on them is not fixed across all sessions or projects" @patio11 on X 2025-07-23 03:28:28 UTC 182.8K followers, 2916 engagements
"Skill cap is a gamerism. It captures the intuition that there are some games where the difference between best player and worst player is marginal tic tac toh and others where this is very untrue and one can study the game for a lifetime while improving continually (poker go)" @patio11 on X 2025-07-23 03:25:11 UTC 182.8K followers, 3679 engagements
"This week on Complex Systems Cate Hall and I talk about agency cultivating it in oneself environments/orgs which seem to suppress or encourage it. Also a bit about walking roads less travelled. 00:00 Intro 02:38 Exploring the concept of agency 03:08 Selection effects in different fields 03:45 The changing demographics in tech and startups 06:52 The rise of systematization in poker and startups 17:27 The role of mental habits in developing agency 22:25 The value of feedback and continuous improvement 25:33 The power of admitting ignorance 27:29 Growth mindset and personal improvement 28:18" @patio11 on X 2025-07-17 22:38:34 UTC 182.9K followers, 31.5K engagements
"They might only be able to determine on a portfolio level months after the fact with delay due to some combination of the natural shape of IT accounting processes and necessity for manual work by business analysts who might not be specifically assigned to a particular product" @patio11 on X 2025-07-29 01:45:47 UTC 182.9K followers, 10.2K engagements
"This letter is what happens when a credit card PM misunderestimates how much of an adverse selection effect they have in a new portfolio" @patio11 on X 2025-07-29 01:18:41 UTC 182.9K followers, 304.7K engagements
"(Theyre disproportionately wealthy and disproportionately consume lots of financial services and they are good about paying their bills on time because otherwise they get drummed out of their favorite hobby.)" @patio11 on X 2025-07-29 01:40:51 UTC 182.9K followers, 11.9K engagements
"@PaulLambertNZ You seem to be interested in making a different set of points than I am and they are generic to credit cards as a payment mechanism versus specific to adverse selection. If youd like to read more about my thoughts on those points:" @patio11 on X 2025-07-29 01:31:36 UTC 182.9K followers, 1672 engagements
"(In particular note the cap on cash back and the carveout for particular transaction types which some users are able to generate arbitrarily high amounts of or would naturally have arbitrarily high amounts relative to normal CC use.)" @patio11 on X 2025-07-29 01:20:00 UTC 182.9K followers, 16K engagements
"For example you could pay estimated taxes of oh $500k. Net +/- $10k of CC rewards iff bank is not on the ball. Whoops sorry seems I was overly conservative in my estimation. My actual taxes were a much lower number. Refund the difference please" @patio11 on X 2025-07-29 02:06:55 UTC 182.9K followers, 15.4K engagements
"Anyhow when you have assets where the valuation is materially tied to ongoing cash flow from a small number of customers who actually do have creditworthiness as a material constraint valuing the asset requires some POV on customer creditworthiness today and in future" @patio11 on X 2025-07-23 23:34:54 UTC 182.9K followers, 7724 engagements
"A perhaps surprising thing about financial technology: it may be difficult for many large institutions to know on an account by account level whether the account is contribution positive" @patio11 on X 2025-07-29 01:44:21 UTC 182.9K followers, 10.7K engagements
"I increasingly think the skill cap for LLM-assisted engineering is probably about as high as for engineering generally. (Its certainly deeper than e.g. Excel and there are OOMs in Excel proficiency.)" @patio11 on X 2025-07-23 03:22:15 UTC 182.9K followers, 54.9K engagements