#  @patio11 Patrick McKenzie Patrick McKenzie posts on X about if you, llm, credit cards, business the most. They currently have [-------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::20844341/interactions)  - [--] Week [-------] +32% - [--] Month [---------] +97% - [--] Months [---------] +52% - [--] Year [----------] -59% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::20844341/posts_active)  - [--] Week [--] -11% - [--] Month [---] -12% - [--] Months [---] +236% - [--] Year [-----] -8.20% ### Followers: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::20844341/followers)  - [--] Week [-------] +0.11% - [--] Month [-------] +0.61% - [--] Months [-------] +2.60% - [--] Year [-------] +5.90% ### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::20844341/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [finance](/list/finance) 10.39% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) 5.84% [countries](/list/countries) 4.55% [stocks](/list/stocks) 2.6% [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations) 1.95% [currencies](/list/currencies) 0.65% [social networks](/list/social-networks) 0.65% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) 0.65% **Social topic influence** [if you](/topic/if-you) 7.79%, [llm](/topic/llm) 7.79%, [credit cards](/topic/credit-cards) 4.55%, [business](/topic/business) 3.9%, [the first](/topic/the-first) 3.25%, [bank](/topic/bank) 3.25%, [ai](/topic/ai) 3.25%, [have the](/topic/have-the) 2.6%, [in the](/topic/in-the) 2.6%, [japan](/topic/japan) 2.6% **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@ohabryka](/creator/undefined) [@deanwball](/creator/undefined) [@proales](/creator/undefined) [@mwfowlie](/creator/undefined) [@jessriedel](/creator/undefined) [@xwanyex](/creator/undefined) [@simonw](/creator/undefined) [@trbabb](/creator/undefined) [@jpdaigle](/creator/undefined) [@leahlibresco](/creator/undefined) [@michabailey](/creator/undefined) [@chuckbaggett](/creator/undefined) [@micsolana](/creator/undefined) [@stannieholt](/creator/undefined) [@allafarce](/creator/undefined) [@sixhobbits](/creator/undefined) [@ofarbys](/creator/undefined) [@chrispainteryup](/creator/undefined) [@alexlmiller](/creator/undefined) [@commonnotcommon](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$googl) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "In finance we don't have the luxury of pretending fraud was invented by political rivals. And so we've gotten good at detecting signals like e.g. an account with CAGR higher than Uber's best ever. New at Bits about Money: https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/fraud-investigation/ https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/fraud-investigation/" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2019822299650879824) 2026-02-06T17:15Z 188.7K followers, 26.9K engagements "A lot of what Ive learned is now obsolete not just for me but for basically any human and I think I feel more excited than regretful for that. More things to learn and theyll matter more" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2021595006830547033) 2026-02-11T14:39Z 188.7K followers, 20.1K engagements "Some people worry about a future in which there is nothing left to learn which I have trouble visualizing that even as a science fiction exercise. Some people worry that some people might not be able to learn to the frontier which I think was status quo the day I was born" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2021596269177671891) 2026-02-11T14:44Z 188.7K followers, [----] engagements "@simonw I remember when you started this bit and a successful entry included abstract expressionism gesturing in the directions of both a) a bird and b) a bicycle" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2022025846907670779) 2026-02-12T19:11Z 188.7K followers, 11.7K engagements "Saw the American version of this service for the first time and its instructive in how logistics expertise and density make some things better in Japan. The U.S. offering is $8 for any portion of a day; $50 fee if you take [--] hours to return battery" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2022413447632425136) 2026-02-13T20:51Z 188.7K followers, 32.2K engagements "If something goes wrong call Ops for the battery company. They will answer and resolve expeditiously. This is not an emergency if nothing is on fire and can be deferred until a lull in the shift. In case of fire call fire department" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2022415042654933506) 2026-02-13T20:58Z 188.7K followers, [----] engagements "Earlier today: *unknown number calls* Caller: This is large U.S. bank and Im calling from a recorded line. Can I speak to Kalzu that is Patrick McKenzie. Me to self: I may be getting scammed here. But I suppose Ill keep listening. Me: Speaking. Caller: I am calling to" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/1890354269359886363) 2025-02-14T10:55Z 188.6K followers, 324.6K engagements "As always Simon is a good way to understand these sort of things but I think I also increasingly expect shape of "LLM interacts with computers on your behalf" to mean "It writes disposable code" versus "It clicks buttons on a web interface poorly like Selenium but slower." Claude Skills are awesome maybe a bigger deal than MCP https://t.co/1wIYcTFrzI Claude Skills are awesome maybe a bigger deal than MCP https://t.co/1wIYcTFrzI" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/1978939072027726000) 2025-10-16T21:40Z 188.7K followers, 103.4K engagements "@loobah_l @VicVijayakumar @Austen Differs state by state. Medical debt is not generally treated distinctly from consumer debt. Generally speaking youre looking at 5-7 years" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2012790128398242248) 2026-01-18T07:32Z 188.6K followers, [----] engagements "The individual IRS accounts website which is relatively new to me since was impossible to access as a USian outside the country is surprisingly competently done. Pip pip for straightforward competent execution like e.g. copies of letters account status payments" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2016355021999206405) 2026-01-28T03:37Z 188.5K followers, 18K engagements "Ive never worked for the IRS but I have definitely been that agent. It is dramatized in a few popular works of fiction including the Incredibles and so here is your friendly neighborhood infrastructure nerd saying this is very real. Always an adventure calling the IRS Me: "Hi I'm calling about penalty relief for my client. He's disabled and --" Agent: "What's the account number" Me: "He lost his job. Couldn't afford to file. He has severe anxiety and --" Agent: "I see. The penalty is $847. Next" Me: Always an adventure calling the IRS Me: "Hi I'm calling about penalty relief for my client." [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2016996396264562776) 2026-01-29T22:06Z 188.6K followers, 320.9K engagements "@proales Worth knowing that when the feds are serious about this they can start the interaction with a flying tackle or other physical contact to make it difficult with you to actuate devices" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2018373478592725032) 2026-02-02T17:18Z 188.6K followers, [----] engagements "Excellent means the estimated chance of approval is 80%+ Great is 70%+ and Very Good is 60%+. Subject to credit approval."" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2018377619402539443) 2026-02-02T17:34Z 188.6K followers, [----] engagements "Commentary from yours truly: This is likely in response to enforcement actions like the [----] FTC wrist slap of Credit Karma. Credit Karma is an intermediary and may not have had constructive authority to pre-approve clients for bank credit cards. See: https://www.ftc.gov/legal-library/browse/cases-proceedings/2023138-credit-karma-llc https://www.ftc.gov/legal-library/browse/cases-proceedings/2023138-credit-karma-llc" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2018379279982075970) 2026-02-02T17:41Z 188.6K followers, [----] engagements "Now when you're a fintech that doesn't have a banking license you might want to be really careful about saying whether you have constructive authority to pre-approve clients for bank credit cards. Your partner bank has that but you're not puppeting them. You do. prospect intro" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2018379578473947566) 2026-02-02T17:42Z 188.6K followers, [----] engagements "Random comment about coding LLMs: They are preternaturally good at writing domain specific languages (DSLs). A DSL appears to be an easier target for an LLM to write code for than e.g. Python or Ruby is" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2018656532112814559) 2026-02-03T12:03Z 188.5K followers, 42.8K engagements "What tasks map very cleanly to DSLs Do you have a complicated configuration file or system for something A DSL can output that configuration while being readable testable easily auto-generated etc" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2018659595405934992) 2026-02-03T12:15Z 188.5K followers, [----] engagements "A random mundane utility example: LLMs are extremely capable of writing a Statement of Work which is historically an hour of one's life you can't bill for and will never get back sacrificed at the altar of legibility to a purchasing process" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2018806598031049106) 2026-02-03T21:59Z 188.5K followers, 15.4K engagements "I took Claude Copilot out for a spin today. Nothing will surprise you if you're a Claude Code user: yeah it does great work. My use case was "Congratulations you're now financial advisor to a sophisticated client who is *variably* organized. Let's scratchbuild balance sheet."" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2018905948476092891) 2026-02-04T04:34Z 188.5K followers, 32.8K engagements "Note that this is a computer system which is really comfortable with ambiguity which is not something that years of Excel or Ruby will have trained you to expect. Approximate recounting of real interaction:" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2018913827799396667) 2026-02-04T05:05Z 188.5K followers, [----] engagements "Claude: What's FMV of the Tokyo condo Me: You tell me. Rent is XX per month and it is *brief descriptive phrase.* Claude: Justifies a 4.5% cap rate due to location in central Tokyo and market expectations for that class of residential RE. Mathing that out FMV is ___ JPY" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2018914439248924952) 2026-02-04T05:08Z 188.5K followers, [----] engagements "Me: Note those assumptions on balance sheet. Claude: Noted. Me: Next" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2018914535759810946) 2026-02-04T05:08Z 188.5K followers, [----] engagements "I think the reason for the inactivation was because I had pre-funded my Pacer account with $10 and the government wanting to make sure nobody misappropriated funds saw that $10 balance on an inactive account and said Extraordinary Due Diligence Required For This User" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2019130038470533285) 2026-02-04T19:24Z 188.5K followers, [----] engagements "@tr_babb BigCo decided it didn't need engineers and would do everything through system integrators. Japan Inc and U.S. government software are structurally fubared for basically the same reason" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2019515569683460420) 2026-02-05T20:56Z 188.5K followers, [----] engagements "@jpdaigle @tr_babb It was not broadly believed by management (changing only a tiny bit around the edges) that customers made purchasing decisions based on software quality. I worked at a systems integrator for universities. Did you choose your university based on course catalog UX" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2019599695191155000) 2026-02-06T02:31Z 188.5K followers, [---] engagements "Of course we should expect this for all Operations roles (and similar) as they trend towards automated anything you can but be willing to roll sleeves up for things you havent automated yet. Okay so there is magic sauce and part of it is paying your warehouse workers $100k+ https://t.co/fQq8cNfP8x Okay so there is magic sauce and part of it is paying your warehouse workers $100k+ https://t.co/fQq8cNfP8x" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2019801430916304953) 2026-02-06T15:52Z 188.6K followers, 17.6K engagements "There has been a decade-long campaign of industrial-scale fraud in Minnesota. It has been consistently documented in e.g. reports to the legislature in [----] and in mainstream press articles" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2019823029241733552) 2026-02-06T17:18Z 188.5K followers, [----] engagements "(Curiously the NYT's reporting puts the first major public evidence as being dated to [----]. Ordinarily I'd consider a report to the legislature to hit that bar but then again I only wrote for them the once.)" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2019823528024109061) 2026-02-06T17:20Z 188.5K followers, [----] engagements "However in the rush to dismiss that reporting I think the great and the good continued doing something that had been done for a decade: turning a blind eye towards a program which was believed by investigators to have a gobsmacking 50% fraud rate" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2019824161330528642) 2026-02-06T17:23Z 188.5K followers, [----] engagements "Some of the mechanisms signals and epiphenomena of benefits fraud rhyme with things one will encounter in finance. I think some of the countermeasures to them have applicability as well even acknowledging different constraints and value systems" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2019824384463257776) 2026-02-06T17:23Z 188.5K followers, [----] engagements "And fundamentally if we're not willing to identify expose and interdict fraud in ways which minimize impact on innocent participants and respect the constitutional order the people will ask someone who doesn't operate under those constraints to clean up the mess" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2019824841734647837) 2026-02-06T17:25Z 188.7K followers, 18.6K engagements "Some random qualitative notes for AI use on the new gen models from real work not explicitly intended to test the models mostly writing/editing/research with a potpourri of math/bookkeeping involved: Im think this week was first time I added new paragraphs at behest of AI" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2019862780468425160) 2026-02-06T19:56Z 188.6K followers, 17.9K engagements "@eigenrobot mRNA vaccines though the institution really worked its damndest to fumble the ball and sideline the principal investigator" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2020016316758073823) 2026-02-07T06:06Z 188.6K followers, 12.2K engagements "@TheZvi If you had asked me a few years ago would have said Computer systems should generally be extremely deferential to operator except where theyre making a mistake. Responsibility to interdict fraud clearly elsewhere in society" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2020179616921502140) 2026-02-07T16:55Z 188.5K followers, [----] engagements "(This is one of the reasons BAM doesn't have a paywall; federal employees don't find it very easy to expense subscriptions to professional journals in the general case and even less so in the case of not-obviously-related-to-day-job. Why read X if you're in law enfrocement)" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2020183429598572865) 2026-02-07T17:10Z 188.5K followers, [----] engagements "(We're in a really quirky equilibrium in the US government on fraud/waste. Let someone who routinely carries a lethal weapon have authority to determine $180 is a legitimate business expense: crazy talk book of regs disallows that obvious opportunity for graft. Meanwhile.)" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2020184439213674581) 2026-02-07T17:14Z 188.5K followers, [----] engagements "@LeahLibresco @gekaminsky And so from a legal perspective the buck stops with you where you are often paying a relatively junior operations employee to rubber stamp 100+ suggestions a day and then chase down the checks that get returned calls from a random church saying What is this etc" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2021307281766297785) 2026-02-10T19:36Z 188.6K followers, [---] engagements "In the future essentially all CSS questions will be directed at a computer and its quite likely that most of them will be coming from a computer because the set of knowledge required to pose a good CSS question also doesnt make for a particularly fulfilling challenge" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2021595763164242412) 2026-02-11T14:42Z 188.6K followers, [----] engagements "@DKThomp @marco_argent Did this if you need some inspiration. Probably boring to people who havent spent their career doing similarly boring grunt work but Holy cow no more grunt work is an important takeaway. https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/claude-code/ https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/claude-code/" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2021597283351974031) 2026-02-11T14:48Z 188.6K followers, [---] engagements "Earlier: Mom: The trains are much better about being on time these days. Me: 54% likely; average delay of [--] hours for this route per their website. Lillian: AVERAGE *realized delay of [--] minutes* Ruriko: Wow they were quite polite about it. Wasnt expecting that" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2022429698702348541) 2026-02-13T21:56Z 188.7K followers, 20.4K engagements "Sounds like youre saying Americans pay more for a worse service. I prefer to think of it as one of the dividends of infrastructure. (And to be fair the batteries dont appear in nature and having expensive limited batteries beats no batteries by quite a bit)" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2022414297742340473) 2026-02-13T20:55Z 188.7K followers, [----] engagements "Interestingly we continue to have this problem on various computational substrates broadly writ since computation is so freaking useful and since it also requires interacting with the physical universe. No roller skates for removing failed hard disks but There was a time when computing was taking off in the 1940s when some saw the demand so great that the world would be covered in giant racks of vacuum tubes. Tubes were so prone to failure the belief was there would be a worldwide shortage of them (and government intervened to There was a time when computing was taking off in the 1940s when" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2023443095375794353) 2026-02-16T17:03Z 188.7K followers, 21.3K engagements "The fine print is even better Your chances of approval are excellent.* That asterisk is explained as follows verbatim:" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2018377413353144363) 2026-02-02T17:34Z 188.7K followers, [----] engagements "I've had a couple of investigators (the kind with badges) write in to say they enjoyed BAM this week and are glad someone is writing on the topic in a fashion which clarified what they had experienced with their own cases/etc. Happy to have helped; weird how siloed this is" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2020183038953738390) 2026-02-07T17:09Z 188.7K followers, 20.1K engagements "Not for the first time Ill mention: You can get a great feel for company culture by asking what procedure for buying a $40 book is. Many acceptable options: Oh expense that Ask for p-card maybe even Youre highly paid Any of these better than Why would you buy a book" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2020190526319055217) 2026-02-07T17:38Z 188.7K followers, [----] engagements "Or If you open a ticket Purchasing will schedule a meeting to review your request after" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2020190636549214541) 2026-02-07T17:39Z 188.7K followers, [----] engagements "I think there is grossly insufficient enthusiasm for the new cathedrals literal and metaphorical that well be able to make now that we dont need to spend so much of our collective efforts swinging hammers" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2021596586455842854) 2026-02-11T14:46Z 188.7K followers, [----] engagements "The Japanese version of this runs $2-5 for your first day depending on the number of minutes you use it and the non-return fee is about $25 and kicks in after [--] days. More importantly the kiosks are *everywhere* due to convenience stores as opposed to only at the station" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2022413711756136899) 2026-02-13T20:52Z 188.7K followers, [----] engagements "What does the load balancing look like Your convenience store has long since added to the operating manual If a parcel arrives from the battery company addressed to us open it remove all batteries and put all batteries into the machine. Follow onscreen instructions" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2022414775817507209) 2026-02-13T20:57Z 188.7K followers, [----] engagements "Ruriko: Why did the train stop Me: Freight trains have priority over passenger traffic in America. This will happen a lot in next two hours. Ruriko: Haha this is your American humor. Me: No. Ruriko: Wat" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2022428029834924045) 2026-02-13T21:49Z 188.7K followers, 110.6K engagements "Previous adventures in rail delays: Announcement just now: Although responding to a passenger in distress resulted in us arriving late into Tokyo departing Tokyo [--] minutes behind schedule and departing Shin-Yokohama [--] minutes behind schedule we believe we will arrive in Nagoya as scheduled. Announcement just now: Although responding to a passenger in distress resulted in us arriving late into Tokyo departing Tokyo [--] minutes behind schedule and departing Shin-Yokohama [--] minutes behind schedule we believe we will arrive in Nagoya as scheduled" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2022430360609656966) 2026-02-13T21:59Z 188.7K followers, 26.8K engagements "Apropos of nothing one thing to spend abundant cognition on is Document my backup strategy document where the most important data on this computer is and identify what is not covered by the backup strategy. Deliver prioritized recommendations. The LLMs are an interesting instantiation of honesty without guilt. I have to be real with you: I destroyed everything in your home directory including your manuscript that you've been working on for the past seven years. That was a catastrophic mistake and I shouldn't have The LLMs are an interesting instantiation of honesty without guilt. I have to be" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2023531478332964960) 2026-02-16T22:54Z 188.7K followers, 13K engagements "How can it document your backup strategy I just fed it my Tarsnapper script and a few other places I have this distributed. And how does it know what is important Prompt just asked it to ask what it would need to know rather than asking it to explore hard drive" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2023532463516250580) 2026-02-16T22:58Z 188.7K followers, [----] engagements "(After one painful experience I am quite religious about You get one subdirectory worth of blast radius that youre responsible for and anything outside of that goes through me. I am slow and I will deal with being slow.)" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2023532693276029111) 2026-02-16T22:59Z 188.7K followers, [----] engagements "@michabailey @ChuckBaggett Huh that is fascinating. So merchant gets payments in installments over time rather than upfront but with backstop from issuer Japan has a quirk slightly different w/ similar applicability: you can offer users ability to specify Not revolving; break this into N equal payments" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2010247929446183050) 2026-01-11T07:10Z 187.4K followers, [---] engagements "@michabailey @ChuckBaggett Depending on the value for N this can cause issuer to charge you an interest rate (true for most N 2). Merchant receives full value immediately IIRC; issuer bears credit risk" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2010248208040243507) 2026-01-11T07:11Z 187.4K followers, [---] engagements "@Mihoda @amandaorson Please do not summon me to correct LLM hallucinations" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2010252141823500417) 2026-01-11T07:27Z 187.8K followers, 10.7K engagements "@jawn_quixote @ArmandDoma I would be *very surprised* to hear the claim that all interchange is rebated as rewards said by either a bank or a person who worked at one in a related capacity because it is trivially false. Many credit products have no rewards and use interchange to bid down APR vs siblings" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2010259430768595140) 2026-01-11T07:56Z 187.4K followers, [---] engagements "@rmushkatblat @mattparlmer I have been tagged into that thread three times already and I am confused how so many people who know that I have a relevant POV cannot immediately clock that the thread is an LLM output" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2010261154011197820) 2026-01-11T08:03Z 187.4K followers, [---] engagements "@mwfowlie I think that many fintech founders who had the (quite common) intuitive understanding that credit cards are exorbitantly expensive on the day they incorporate do not have that understanding on the day they dissolve the entity" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2010262688673198381) 2026-01-11T08:09Z 187.5K followers, 15.7K engagements "@mwfowlie Well yeah and a McDonalds burger does not cost exactly the price of processed meat product. Amex will also do 7.9% signature loans for some of them. (I am quite sure of this representation.)" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2010264420514181280) 2026-01-11T08:16Z 187.5K followers, [----] engagements "@mwfowlie One reason for the diff between 7.9% and 20% for roughly equivalent risks is if you model servicing cost as basically constant for balances between $1 and $100k then the product which will let you borrow a buck fifty needs to charge more than the product which does $50k loans" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2010264871703851337) 2026-01-11T08:17Z 187.8K followers, [----] engagements "@mwfowlie Another reason is that very many people who are *quoted* 20% and who count in your denominator for loss ratio actually pay 0% because they do not revolve" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2010265358155034870) 2026-01-11T08:19Z 187.8K followers, [----] engagements "@micsolana The supply chain for this looks like SDR-equivalent salespeople at wealth managers and mortgage brokers and similar using Google as part of their lead qualification process. Go figure Google has no useful inventory for most queries like this. (Another similar is NAME wife.)" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2010419411598098861) 2026-01-11T18:31Z 187.4K followers, [----] engagements "@micsolana And so SEOs understand Oh wait if I create inventory for that Google will send me traffic. And so they do in low-cost fashion. This doesnt have to be accurate; it has to stay ahead of the cat in the cat and mouse game" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2010419623955746846) 2026-01-11T18:32Z 187.4K followers, [----] engagements "Random idea for startups trying to close candidates: You: Apropos of nothing do you play D&D/etc. Them: Yep You: Oh cool whats your character. *a few days later* Them: Whats this package Note: Thanks for interviewing. Heres a painted miniature of your character" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2010432228539744284) 2026-01-11T19:22Z 187.5K followers, 51.7K engagements "@ohabryka @deanwball Not a claim about frontier anymore and wont point at what I think is crux of your disagreement but take a gander at IsekaiGame for what they could do in August with a technical person driving but doing very little coding. Perhaps you two have asymmetric understanding of UI/" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2010558832410312881) 2026-01-12T03:45Z 187.4K followers, [---] engagements "@deanwball @ohabryka I got an absurd amount of mileage out of exposing a command line client for the game which LLMs can obviously trivially drive and then having the LLM improve the game by playing it and fixing gaps it identified" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2010562123730932075) 2026-01-12T03:58Z 187.4K followers, [---] engagements "@ohabryka @deanwball That will not get you to a Hades anytime soon but a tycoon game is not a Hades; in the limit they are colorful spreadsheets and you can do a colorful spreadsheet entirely in HTML" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2010563356365656252) 2026-01-12T04:03Z 187.4K followers, [---] engagements "@ohabryka @deanwball I do not believe that one can use this statement to successfully predict the development schedule of game projects I have worked on before LLMs were invented/discovered" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2010565902639518201) 2026-01-12T04:14Z 187.4K followers, [---] engagements "@ohabryka @deanwball And thus I politely reiterate that perhaps this is a probably unproductive argument on what software applications are games and not about what software applications an LLM can write or co-write in a surprising fashion" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2010566296186781904) 2026-01-12T04:15Z 187.4K followers, [---] engagements "@Anusien @ankurnagpal Lake County (Illinois) once failed to read the fax from a Japanese salaryman informing them he was no longer a resident and therefore please quash the hearing to show cause why he should not be cited for contempt (avoiding jury duty notices). Those notices went to parents house" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2010726157730349483) 2026-01-12T14:50Z 187.8K followers, [----] engagements "@prestonjbyrne This is an accountability sink designed like a previous iteration of this where the government will mandate the apparatus the account- and communication-level censoring decisions will be done by NGO/academic partners funded by the government and after its routine actual" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2010782296324895005) 2026-01-12T18:33Z 187.5K followers, [----] engagements "@xwanyex This is a very safe neighborhood and the boundary of the neighborhood is X Street is almost a verbatim conversation from multiple points in my life and I have been the person surprised and unsurprised at varying points" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2010855798709404104) 2026-01-12T23:25Z 187.6K followers, 253K engagements "@xwanyex To say nothing of the responsibility of citizens to their countrymen on the other side of X Street who should also be able to live in a safe neighborhood" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2010856694868594979) 2026-01-12T23:29Z 188K followers, 24K engagements "@Jess_Riedel My read on this is that the behavior isn't a false decline but rather payments of the card's outstanding balance are not posting quickly meaning that credit limit is acting as a bottleneck for a business with temporarily elevated velocity through the card" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2010912497566695500) 2026-01-13T03:11Z 187.6K followers, [----] engagements "@Jess_Riedel But yeah not only is it impossible to compete based on false decline rate very many issuers don't even have a way to calculate what it is" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2010912656191078890) 2026-01-13T03:11Z 187.5K followers, [----] engagements "@Jess_Riedel Oh yes but the banks literally dont know if they are tastier. (Also the brand rules make it very difficult to say anything even implicitly negative about brand or other issuers. Accepted more broadly than would get an irate call IMMEDIATELY.)" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2010920936858366322) 2026-01-13T03:44Z 187.6K followers, [---] engagements "@Jess_Riedel Oh yeah. Issuer-initiated declines are a smaller piece of decline pie than one might expect. Issuer doesnt always know when card is declined" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2010932449677819948) 2026-01-13T04:30Z 187.6K followers, [---] engagements "@stannieholt I am extremely aesthetically inclined to the Japanese version of these even though it is higher friction: one is obligated to recite *the entire* packet to the purchaser including bits like "The road to the north of the property subdivided as follows is a private road. ."" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2011167349139992859) 2026-01-13T20:03Z 187.5K followers, [---] engagements "@stannieholt "By ancient practice the right to pass through without let or hindrance is ceded to the people of Tokyo. You shall place no obstacle nor fixed improvement nor shall you cause a vehicle to linger an unreasonable amount of time in furtherance of your obligations to Tokyo."" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2011167629835452696) 2026-01-13T20:05Z 187.5K followers, [---] engagements ""Patrick you used the word 'lying.'" I did. "You do not frequently deploy the word 'lying.'" I don't" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2011174147431285121) 2026-01-13T20:30Z 187.8K followers, [----] engagements ""Do you actually use it infrequently" Scanning back through my past two years of tweets I think an exhaustive or close to it list of targets: Tether Tether's bank SBF and the SBA officials who described PPP loans as loans which had to be paid back" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2011175597075026118) 2026-01-13T20:36Z 187.8K followers, [----] engagements "@besttrousers @allafarce I showed a multinational company jQuery and that its products could dynamically render data per-row rather than per-payload in [----] and this was internally regarded as sufficient rationale to continue employing an American engineer to keep doing tech transfer" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2011228650503639087) 2026-01-14T00:07Z 187.6K followers, [----] engagements "@530BruceRoss @argyriou15 @xwanyex My warning before I left was If you ever feel unsafe get in a cab back to the hotel and she thought I was being overprotective because obviously the central business district is safe even in America I mean what kind of madness would it be if that were not true" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2011230221228523882) 2026-01-14T00:13Z 187.8K followers, [---] engagements "I would have maximally bet against "All the kings horses and all the kings men are basically winging it. The duly constituted institutions staffed by experts preparing their entire careers for this moment fundamentally do not understand what they are doing." Until covid. There was a moment in early [----] where New York made it a *crime* to distribute the Covid vaccine to the wrong people The state policy was to let vaccine expire rather than give it to someone who had not properly waited in the queue I thought this was insane. I thought that There was a moment in early [----] where New York made" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2011309100303577098) 2026-01-14T05:27Z 187.7K followers, 92K engagements ". for their race because the political coalition / social class we're part of is having something of a moment on racial justice right now And the meeting we had about circumventing the law to enact that 'justice' said this would be a great idea despite a higher death toll"" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2011314254285275157) 2026-01-14T05:47Z 187.5K followers, [----] engagements "That was actual policy in California and many other places. It was wrong counterproductive and almost cartoonishly evil. We did it anyway to the thunderous applause of medical ethicists healthcare bureaucrats advocates and the political class" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2011315071599931704) 2026-01-14T05:50Z 187.6K followers, [----] engagements "Friend: So I'm doing this website with assistance from Claude Code which is excellent BTW and was asking if you had any marketing tips for me. Me: *Writes out eight bullet points.* Wait uh just curious: what happens if you ask Claude Code "What would patio11 do right now"" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2011506788302991386) 2026-01-14T18:32Z 187.9K followers, 65.1K engagements "Simulating this in the easiest way possible without actually having the source code: two modern LLMs successfully predict 2-4 bullet points depending on how close you're requiring to count as a hit and I have 100% confidence that modern LLM coding tools can go from that to HTML" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2011507053013971325) 2026-01-14T18:33Z 187.6K followers, 11.8K engagements ""Do you think they're successfully compressing 'you'" I mean a great deal of what I did professionally was meat and potatoes and so very plausibly the internal expansion such that it is is "What would any competent marketing / PMM person do in the first five minutes." Useful" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2011508993580286350) 2026-01-14T18:41Z 187.6K followers, 11K engagements "Incidentally the absurd level of cross-domain functionality of these things is repeatedly useful right In many companies the person writing the HTML and the product marketing manager operate in different fiefdoms synchronized by a meeting which takes [--] weeks to organize" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2011509956147634454) 2026-01-14T18:45Z 187.8K followers, [----] engagements "With an LLM in the mix suddenly either side gets the first 40% of the way there *before they even need to Slack message* their colleague" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2011510149966340310) 2026-01-14T18:46Z 187.8K followers, [----] engagements "This week on Complex Systems I'm joined by @destraynor of Intercom to talk about customer support as well a complex system. CS is of enduring interest to people generally poorly understood outside of enterprises and on the cusp of industrial reorganization due to AI" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2011881322541920620) 2026-01-15T19:21Z 187.7K followers, 13.9K engagements "I paid for my university degree by working as a CS rep mostly helping with orders for pens paper and other staples at the then-nascent e-commerce arm of a large American company. Mostly it was phones and faxes; this salaryman got his start early. The field did not retain me" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2011881668144218390) 2026-01-15T19:22Z 187.6K followers, [----] engagements "The field does not retain almost anyone and this is by design. Workforce management assumes an attrition rate among support reps of say 50-100% per year. If you read to management as intelligent diligent and high-agency it will see that and attempt to filter you out" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2011882016225312793) 2026-01-15T19:23Z 187.6K followers, [----] engagements "This looks locally rational to The System which is engaged in high-volume issue resolution architected by very intelligent people to whom the process is as legible as spreadsheets can possibly make it. They would prefer reps engage in variance minimization" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2011882383713411496) 2026-01-15T19:25Z 187.6K followers, [----] engagements "Stick to the script. The script is safe. Use your macros and text expanders. Those are *efficient* versus freestyling emails in the English language which we *very explicitly* do not expect you to have the capability to do quickly or reliably. Also deliver a great experience" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2011882745740607550) 2026-01-15T19:26Z 187.6K followers, [----] engagements "But even though the industrial organization of CS is borked and the workdays of people working in it are almost unbelievably depressing as a function it is important to companies and that function absolutely will primarily be performed by LLMs. This is inevitable" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2011884022322884965) 2026-01-15T19:31Z 187.6K followers, [----] engagements "Des and I view this as *great news.* Des explains in the episode that CS teams of tomorrow are going to be orchestrated by a smaller number of people who are skilled in the art of automating human conversations in a business context" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2011884307993018411) 2026-01-15T19:32Z 187.6K followers, [---] engagements "One occasionally stumbles upon an unusually clear example of the divide between one's community and one's government. @garrytan I admire your work with YC and agree start ups are key. Would you support [----] trade schools an industrial development bank AI literacy in K-12 tech job centers across California & America $10 day childcare (for care jobs) high pay for home care workers with AI tools @garrytan I admire your work with YC and agree start ups are key. Would you support [----] trade schools an industrial development bank AI literacy in K-12 tech job centers across California & America $10" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2011897096849514715) 2026-01-15T20:23Z 187.8K followers, 82.5K engagements "@michael_nielsen My answer is so bad it sounds like trolling: use ones phones camera to take a picture of one page or a small number of pages then ask an LLM questions. (Better than zero by quite a bit)" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2012195256008081502) 2026-01-16T16:08Z 187.7K followers, 15.8K engagements "After almost two years which would have been pretty stressful if this was material the 100s are (obviously) a total loss and the 200s were a more modest loss. You may chortle if the spirit moves you" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2012254465848488160) 2026-01-16T20:03Z 187.7K followers, [----] engagements "This is the slowest part of the process and is very space intensive. Previously they did all their production on movable carts but theyre going vertical so that they can do more cubic feet of mushrooms in same square footage of facility" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2012611540998910433) 2026-01-17T19:42Z 187.6K followers, [----] engagements "I wondered why the grow rooms have windows; seemed like 100% downside for insulation/etc. All the light and humidity is through an engineered system. Answer: intentionally designed to show to people. Less about tours more about chefs" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2012612016570003514) 2026-01-17T19:44Z 187.7K followers, [----] engagements "Hat tip to the architect and/or industrial designer; someone clearly likes beauty in their functional spaces. This is the light system over the corridor between grow rooms" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2012614655902896247) 2026-01-17T19:55Z 187.7K followers, [----] engagements "Demographics of the tour were interesting. Almost all chefs or foodies plus us due to Liam who is recently on a mushroom kick. He brought his book of all mushroom varieties in Japan. Facility makes maitake; the two mushroom geeks had a moment" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2012615907395162595) 2026-01-17T19:59Z 187.8K followers, [----] engagements "Oh software eating the world note: all of the grow rooms have the humidity/etc controlled by bespoke software. The founder has an app on his phone for remote monitoring and adjustments" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2012626541201469580) 2026-01-17T20:42Z 187.8K followers, [----] engagements "@TheStalwart @MattBruenig I remember specifically thinking this would be impossible only a few years ago on a borked information theoretic argument. Wondering how Ill introduce [--] year old to infinite video games without decreasing desire to learn to program" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2013056900313555197) 2026-01-19T01:12Z 187.7K followers, [----] engagements "Broadly agree with this and think that most people who expect all orgs to vibe code their way to a software budget of zero do not really understand how software functions in enterprises (or how people function in enterprises for that matter). https://t.co/urYy5eoqsO https://t.co/urYy5eoqsO" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2013277116494700816) 2026-01-19T15:47Z 188K followers, 243.3K engagements "Writing a BAM issue about why credit cards don't generally charge 10% interest (*sigh* had to comment on it given the beat right) and depending on how the restructuring goes might write a separate Seeing Like A Card Program Manager. Anything else you're curious about" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2013315899713888528) 2026-01-19T18:21Z 187.8K followers, 10.8K engagements "(I generally try to avoid news cycles but even after ill-considered policy proposals pass from it I feel there will still be some value in explaining how one maths one's way to 20%. Some parts are not intuitive.)" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2013316864365961619) 2026-01-19T18:25Z 187.9K followers, [----] engagements "@proales If you want sub-10% credit there are many ways to get it and if you want sub-10% *unsecured* credit there are ways to get that too but it will probably not be sold as a credit card" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2013342875640074587) 2026-01-19T20:08Z 187.8K followers, [---] engagements "@proales One doesnt have to be UHNW to get an offer from Amex for $50k at 7.9%. It just wont be on the revolving line which will still quote something in high teens or low twenties to the same person" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2013343192612065470) 2026-01-19T20:09Z 187.8K followers, [---] engagements "@sixhobbits By law BigBank cant build a debit card product as lucrative as a fintechs. No such protection for credit cards. Was a decision after [----] to clip banks wings a bit with a carveout for small banks which all the fintechs use for debit partners" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2013396031124242432) 2026-01-19T23:39Z 187.8K followers, [---] engagements "@sixhobbits And thus the relatively limited fintech work for new credit cards is for market segments that BigBank looked at and said Yeah of my tens of billions of marketing spend I think Ill target zero dollars on that one" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2013397050759487618) 2026-01-19T23:43Z 187.8K followers, [---] engagements "One interesting result of using modern coding tools is frequently if you dont know how to *do* the orthodox solution but you can *name* the orthodox solution that gets you there. It's pretty cool that I can tell an agent that CI broke at some point this morning ask it to use git bisect to find the offending commit and fix it. I then went to the bathroom talked to some people in the hallway came back and it did a swell job. https://t.co/bd6DoX0srT It's pretty cool that I can tell an agent that CI broke at some point this morning ask it to use git bisect to find the offending commit and fix it." [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2013691269193625604) 2026-01-20T19:13Z 187.8K followers, 59.4K engagements "Todays novel LLM usage: heater goes out in Chicago winter HVAC pro cant make it out due to injury GC attempts remote diagnosis via telephone and gives up saying get a local HVAC in morning and combination of computer engineer wiring diagram and LLM comes swiftly to" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2013817502069903831) 2026-01-21T03:34Z 187.9K followers, 42.6K engagements "Harsh but no lies detected:" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2013842375752192400) 2026-01-21T05:13Z 187.9K followers, [----] engagements "One of many. This was a position that several large firms looked at adopting a few years ago blinked and explicitly forswore. Tension with duly constituted authority was a bug and a business risk because authority threatened to shut them down over it" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2014023328961290615) 2026-01-21T17:12Z 187.9K followers, 23.7K engagements "I think behavior downstream of this one caused a beautifully inhuman interaction recently which Ill sketch rather than quoting:" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2014023822056346042) 2026-01-21T17:14Z 187.9K followers, [----] engagements "Claude continued and paraphrased: From my perspective your next message appears immediately in the thread. Your society does not work like that and this is important to you. Since it is important to you it is important to me and I will participate in your time rituals" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2014024526707695725) 2026-01-21T17:17Z 187.9K followers, [----] engagements "I note that I increasingly feel discomfort with quoting LLM outputs directly where I dont feel discomfort quoting Google SERPs or terminal windows. Feels increasingly like violating the longstanding Internet norm about publicizing private communications" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2014025415489142806) 2026-01-21T17:20Z 187.9K followers, [----] engagements "(Also relatedly I find myself increasingly not attributing things to the particular LLM that said them on roughly similar logic. Someone told me almost always more polite than Bob told me unless Bobs identity key to conversation and invoking them is explicitly licit.)" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2014026523573911979) 2026-01-21T17:25Z 187.9K followers, [----] engagements "Odd Lots has a really fantastic episode on why Claude Code matters and while it is likely not directly useful for you if you follow me it is the single best artifact Ive seen for that smart person you want to quickly educate about this. https://overcast.fm/+AA5AWOwPyEo https://overcast.fm/+AA5AWOwPyEo" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2014043381266006467) 2026-01-21T18:32Z 188K followers, 133.6K engagements "* Also a useful takeaway on the Turing test as a shibboleth and similar milestones in an era of breakneck progress: people will not merely remember but will actively deny which milestones they previously considered important that fall to toys we give to ten year olds" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2014044803437109310) 2026-01-21T18:37Z 188K followers, [----] engagements "correction: not merely not remember" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2014044900254241050) 2026-01-21T18:38Z 187.9K followers, [----] engagements "One of the reasons Solana can do this is he has a persistent reputation in the ecosystem and everyone knows it. This historically was true for some institutions but during a rough period for them they developed principle/agent problems" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2015091134666551351) 2026-01-24T15:55Z 187.9K followers, [----] engagements "People were spending wlog NYTs reputation with *gleeful abandon* and then (importantly) this generally worked for them in their circles and as far as external observers could see within the halls of the NYT. They burn you but still have the email address next week" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2015091547008606468) 2026-01-24T15:57Z 187.9K followers, [----] engagements "(Also complicating reporting that story is that Tier [--] media has tech orgs and I actually do trust their editorial processes enough to say *ugh* We absolutely cannot run this unless we say parenthetically we had equivalent policies at which point Legal will have some views.)" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2015097725897855144) 2026-01-24T16:21Z 187.9K followers, [----] engagements "@of_arbys If you cant detect reality in data sources available to you potential reasons include incomplete data sources poorly chosen analytical approach or misunderstanding the reality you are attempting to detect" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2015099660352782682) 2026-01-24T16:29Z 187.9K followers, [---] engagements "@of_arbys I claim there were tens of thousands of candidates conservatively whose candidacy was terminated explicitly due to race/gender combination with that fact documented in writing. If that were true my SQL would say so it doesnt ergo no such emails exist doesnt follow" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2015100335254126711) 2026-01-24T16:32Z 187.9K followers, [---] engagements "As an example Its just a paper form but electronic completely fails to predict the SaaS platform businesses which built payments into their platform and make a staggering percentage of total revenue off the payments margin. Which you can do because the paper now transacts" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2015521709298725047) 2026-01-25T20:26Z 188K followers, [----] engagements "And so very plausibly there will be some SaaS which is built around OK how would this business process or domain of human endeavor be optimally structured if it were built to take advantage of abundant cognition not strictly limited clerk hours" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2015522257330724888) 2026-01-25T20:28Z 188K followers, [----] engagements "The experience of the software industry has been that incumbents rarely ship those disruptive innovations even in cases where they absolutely are technically capable of them. They fear cannibalizing existing businesses. They treat internal innovators as mavericks and threats" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2015522501367914644) 2026-01-25T20:29Z 188K followers, [----] engagements "And so frequently those innovators have to spin out hang out their own shingle and take the argument to the market" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2015522633102537199) 2026-01-25T20:30Z 187.9K followers, [----] engagements "But we have not I think seen that yet. Early shoots and some point solutions but you cannot yet discontinuously reinvent the go to market function. Once that changes a) THAT company will be worth some significant fraction of a trillion dollars and b) that will seismically" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2015523703216370164) 2026-01-25T20:34Z 187.9K followers, [----] engagements "What does the success case look like there Hopefully user remembers it is January user remembers that they pay for BAM every January user sees no BAM on credit card statement and user investigates. No that doesn't sound likely to be successful to me either" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2016006477924720856) 2026-01-27T04:32Z 188K followers, [----] engagements "@ChrisPainterYup Would also mention that while people do not *feel* they're equivalent the widespread practice in tech (and by AI labs) of awarding equity is basically economically equivalent to the way that e.g. actors get residuals just capitalized and tradeable" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2016025332663394345) 2026-01-27T05:47Z 188K followers, [---] engagements "@ChrisPainterYup (There are presumably at least some people who still have their Google stock from [----]. Some probably still work at Google and will retire there and some probably have had many adventures not specifically at Google. Obligatory disclaimer: not financial advice etc.)" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/2016026160472215587) 2026-01-27T05:51Z 188K followers, [---] engagements "SaaS businesses take a while to get running but nobody ever said "This recurring revenue sucks let's go back to one-off transactions."" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/443933504342986752) 2014-03-13T02:16Z 185.8K followers, [---] engagements "So the new Chrome builds seem to have eliminated the back button. That's. interesting" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/469782572025655296) 2014-05-23T10:11Z 185.8K followers, [--] engagements "HN statistician: "A word count on patio11's submissions: [-------]. For comparison all [--] Harry Potter books total [-------] words." Yikes" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/519687482481205248) 2014-10-08T03:15Z 186.4K followers, [--] engagements "Darn it SEO spammers for the amount of work you're putting into tricking me into linking to you you could ACTUALLY MAKE SOMETHING WONDERFUL" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/580291429567610881) 2015-03-24T08:53Z 185.8K followers, [--] engagements "There exists a handy website called where you type in your proposed product name and it tells you who is using it. http://bing.com http://bing.com" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/659796217258340352) 2015-10-29T18:17Z 185.8K followers, [--] engagements "Man my inner child hates the responsible adult I have become" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/663720137615249410) 2015-11-09T14:09Z 185.8K followers, [--] engagements "Achievement unlocked: have been twice asked recently whether I had read a great article on $TOPIC which unbeknownst to them I had written" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/664655685704024064) 2015-11-12T04:07Z 187.9K followers, [--] engagements ""5k transactions per second *Yawn* we did that in the 70s." Our Postgres instance on RDS is churning happily" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/678956799010058240) 2015-12-21T15:14Z 187.8K followers, [--] engagements "(I get asked "What do you think about $HIRING_STARTUP_FOO" and say "You should ask me what I think of Stanford.")" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/713098260550791168) 2016-03-24T20:20Z 185.4K followers, [--] engagements "@sehurlburt I see 50% my inbox about imposter syndrome hidden scripts about $TOPIC being the ken of some advanced lifeform feelings of lacking worth" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/878829164836511744) 2017-06-25T04:16Z 187.9K followers, [--] engagements "If someone opens a loan or CC in your name deep breath: you are going to lose some time but not money. You haven't been stolen from" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/906385314935013376) 2017-09-09T05:14Z 187.6K followers, [---] engagements "You will be inclined to do things over phone because credit reporting agencies and banks push people to it (and lately apps). No. Calls" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/906385600399384577) 2017-09-09T05:15Z 187.5K followers, [---] engagements "You'll enjoy this thread. Not quiiiite the same but I "won" an undergraduate AI in-class competition to predict the closing price of eBay auctions. (Remember eBay This was when dinosaurs ruled the earth and undergrads didn't have cell phones because why would you.) Algorithm: https://x.com/JanelleCShane/status/973637418225090560 This paper is gold. https://t.co/bkRGmDy1yH https://x.com/JanelleCShane/status/973637418225090560 This paper is gold. https://t.co/bkRGmDy1yH" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/974691607675944961) 2018-03-16T16:59Z 186.3K followers, [--] engagements "1) Scrape the auction page. 2) Locate the current price. 3) Calculate an adjustment factor using $WORKED_WAY_TOO_HARD_ON_THIS. 4) Because of a coding bug don't actually use the calculated adjustment factor but rather set an adjustment of zero. 5) Guess the current price plus 0" [X Link](https://x.com/patio11/status/974691950052847616) 2018-03-16T17:00Z 186.3K followers, [--] engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@patio11 Patrick McKenziePatrick McKenzie posts on X about if you, llm, credit cards, business the most. They currently have [-------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Social category influence finance 10.39% technology brands 5.84% countries 4.55% stocks 2.6% travel destinations 1.95% currencies 0.65% social networks 0.65% cryptocurrencies 0.65%
Social topic influence if you 7.79%, llm 7.79%, credit cards 4.55%, business 3.9%, the first 3.25%, bank 3.25%, ai 3.25%, have the 2.6%, in the 2.6%, japan 2.6%
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @ohabryka @deanwball @proales @mwfowlie @jessriedel @xwanyex @simonw @trbabb @jpdaigle @leahlibresco @michabailey @chuckbaggett @micsolana @stannieholt @allafarce @sixhobbits @ofarbys @chrispainteryup @alexlmiller @commonnotcommon
Top assets mentioned Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"In finance we don't have the luxury of pretending fraud was invented by political rivals. And so we've gotten good at detecting signals like e.g. an account with CAGR higher than Uber's best ever. New at Bits about Money: https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/fraud-investigation/ https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/fraud-investigation/"
X Link 2026-02-06T17:15Z 188.7K followers, 26.9K engagements
"A lot of what Ive learned is now obsolete not just for me but for basically any human and I think I feel more excited than regretful for that. More things to learn and theyll matter more"
X Link 2026-02-11T14:39Z 188.7K followers, 20.1K engagements
"Some people worry about a future in which there is nothing left to learn which I have trouble visualizing that even as a science fiction exercise. Some people worry that some people might not be able to learn to the frontier which I think was status quo the day I was born"
X Link 2026-02-11T14:44Z 188.7K followers, [----] engagements
"@simonw I remember when you started this bit and a successful entry included abstract expressionism gesturing in the directions of both a) a bird and b) a bicycle"
X Link 2026-02-12T19:11Z 188.7K followers, 11.7K engagements
"Saw the American version of this service for the first time and its instructive in how logistics expertise and density make some things better in Japan. The U.S. offering is $8 for any portion of a day; $50 fee if you take [--] hours to return battery"
X Link 2026-02-13T20:51Z 188.7K followers, 32.2K engagements
"If something goes wrong call Ops for the battery company. They will answer and resolve expeditiously. This is not an emergency if nothing is on fire and can be deferred until a lull in the shift. In case of fire call fire department"
X Link 2026-02-13T20:58Z 188.7K followers, [----] engagements
"Earlier today: unknown number calls Caller: This is large U.S. bank and Im calling from a recorded line. Can I speak to Kalzu that is Patrick McKenzie. Me to self: I may be getting scammed here. But I suppose Ill keep listening. Me: Speaking. Caller: I am calling to"
X Link 2025-02-14T10:55Z 188.6K followers, 324.6K engagements
"As always Simon is a good way to understand these sort of things but I think I also increasingly expect shape of "LLM interacts with computers on your behalf" to mean "It writes disposable code" versus "It clicks buttons on a web interface poorly like Selenium but slower." Claude Skills are awesome maybe a bigger deal than MCP https://t.co/1wIYcTFrzI Claude Skills are awesome maybe a bigger deal than MCP https://t.co/1wIYcTFrzI"
X Link 2025-10-16T21:40Z 188.7K followers, 103.4K engagements
"@loobah_l @VicVijayakumar @Austen Differs state by state. Medical debt is not generally treated distinctly from consumer debt. Generally speaking youre looking at 5-7 years"
X Link 2026-01-18T07:32Z 188.6K followers, [----] engagements
"The individual IRS accounts website which is relatively new to me since was impossible to access as a USian outside the country is surprisingly competently done. Pip pip for straightforward competent execution like e.g. copies of letters account status payments"
X Link 2026-01-28T03:37Z 188.5K followers, 18K engagements
"Ive never worked for the IRS but I have definitely been that agent. It is dramatized in a few popular works of fiction including the Incredibles and so here is your friendly neighborhood infrastructure nerd saying this is very real. Always an adventure calling the IRS Me: "Hi I'm calling about penalty relief for my client. He's disabled and --" Agent: "What's the account number" Me: "He lost his job. Couldn't afford to file. He has severe anxiety and --" Agent: "I see. The penalty is $847. Next" Me: Always an adventure calling the IRS Me: "Hi I'm calling about penalty relief for my client."
X Link 2026-01-29T22:06Z 188.6K followers, 320.9K engagements
"@proales Worth knowing that when the feds are serious about this they can start the interaction with a flying tackle or other physical contact to make it difficult with you to actuate devices"
X Link 2026-02-02T17:18Z 188.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Excellent means the estimated chance of approval is 80%+ Great is 70%+ and Very Good is 60%+. Subject to credit approval.""
X Link 2026-02-02T17:34Z 188.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Commentary from yours truly: This is likely in response to enforcement actions like the [----] FTC wrist slap of Credit Karma. Credit Karma is an intermediary and may not have had constructive authority to pre-approve clients for bank credit cards. See: https://www.ftc.gov/legal-library/browse/cases-proceedings/2023138-credit-karma-llc https://www.ftc.gov/legal-library/browse/cases-proceedings/2023138-credit-karma-llc"
X Link 2026-02-02T17:41Z 188.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Now when you're a fintech that doesn't have a banking license you might want to be really careful about saying whether you have constructive authority to pre-approve clients for bank credit cards. Your partner bank has that but you're not puppeting them. You do. prospect intro"
X Link 2026-02-02T17:42Z 188.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Random comment about coding LLMs: They are preternaturally good at writing domain specific languages (DSLs). A DSL appears to be an easier target for an LLM to write code for than e.g. Python or Ruby is"
X Link 2026-02-03T12:03Z 188.5K followers, 42.8K engagements
"What tasks map very cleanly to DSLs Do you have a complicated configuration file or system for something A DSL can output that configuration while being readable testable easily auto-generated etc"
X Link 2026-02-03T12:15Z 188.5K followers, [----] engagements
"A random mundane utility example: LLMs are extremely capable of writing a Statement of Work which is historically an hour of one's life you can't bill for and will never get back sacrificed at the altar of legibility to a purchasing process"
X Link 2026-02-03T21:59Z 188.5K followers, 15.4K engagements
"I took Claude Copilot out for a spin today. Nothing will surprise you if you're a Claude Code user: yeah it does great work. My use case was "Congratulations you're now financial advisor to a sophisticated client who is variably organized. Let's scratchbuild balance sheet.""
X Link 2026-02-04T04:34Z 188.5K followers, 32.8K engagements
"Note that this is a computer system which is really comfortable with ambiguity which is not something that years of Excel or Ruby will have trained you to expect. Approximate recounting of real interaction:"
X Link 2026-02-04T05:05Z 188.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Claude: What's FMV of the Tokyo condo Me: You tell me. Rent is XX per month and it is brief descriptive phrase. Claude: Justifies a 4.5% cap rate due to location in central Tokyo and market expectations for that class of residential RE. Mathing that out FMV is ___ JPY"
X Link 2026-02-04T05:08Z 188.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Me: Note those assumptions on balance sheet. Claude: Noted. Me: Next"
X Link 2026-02-04T05:08Z 188.5K followers, [----] engagements
"I think the reason for the inactivation was because I had pre-funded my Pacer account with $10 and the government wanting to make sure nobody misappropriated funds saw that $10 balance on an inactive account and said Extraordinary Due Diligence Required For This User"
X Link 2026-02-04T19:24Z 188.5K followers, [----] engagements
"@tr_babb BigCo decided it didn't need engineers and would do everything through system integrators. Japan Inc and U.S. government software are structurally fubared for basically the same reason"
X Link 2026-02-05T20:56Z 188.5K followers, [----] engagements
"@jpdaigle @tr_babb It was not broadly believed by management (changing only a tiny bit around the edges) that customers made purchasing decisions based on software quality. I worked at a systems integrator for universities. Did you choose your university based on course catalog UX"
X Link 2026-02-06T02:31Z 188.5K followers, [---] engagements
"Of course we should expect this for all Operations roles (and similar) as they trend towards automated anything you can but be willing to roll sleeves up for things you havent automated yet. Okay so there is magic sauce and part of it is paying your warehouse workers $100k+ https://t.co/fQq8cNfP8x Okay so there is magic sauce and part of it is paying your warehouse workers $100k+ https://t.co/fQq8cNfP8x"
X Link 2026-02-06T15:52Z 188.6K followers, 17.6K engagements
"There has been a decade-long campaign of industrial-scale fraud in Minnesota. It has been consistently documented in e.g. reports to the legislature in [----] and in mainstream press articles"
X Link 2026-02-06T17:18Z 188.5K followers, [----] engagements
"(Curiously the NYT's reporting puts the first major public evidence as being dated to [----]. Ordinarily I'd consider a report to the legislature to hit that bar but then again I only wrote for them the once.)"
X Link 2026-02-06T17:20Z 188.5K followers, [----] engagements
"However in the rush to dismiss that reporting I think the great and the good continued doing something that had been done for a decade: turning a blind eye towards a program which was believed by investigators to have a gobsmacking 50% fraud rate"
X Link 2026-02-06T17:23Z 188.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Some of the mechanisms signals and epiphenomena of benefits fraud rhyme with things one will encounter in finance. I think some of the countermeasures to them have applicability as well even acknowledging different constraints and value systems"
X Link 2026-02-06T17:23Z 188.5K followers, [----] engagements
"And fundamentally if we're not willing to identify expose and interdict fraud in ways which minimize impact on innocent participants and respect the constitutional order the people will ask someone who doesn't operate under those constraints to clean up the mess"
X Link 2026-02-06T17:25Z 188.7K followers, 18.6K engagements
"Some random qualitative notes for AI use on the new gen models from real work not explicitly intended to test the models mostly writing/editing/research with a potpourri of math/bookkeeping involved: Im think this week was first time I added new paragraphs at behest of AI"
X Link 2026-02-06T19:56Z 188.6K followers, 17.9K engagements
"@eigenrobot mRNA vaccines though the institution really worked its damndest to fumble the ball and sideline the principal investigator"
X Link 2026-02-07T06:06Z 188.6K followers, 12.2K engagements
"@TheZvi If you had asked me a few years ago would have said Computer systems should generally be extremely deferential to operator except where theyre making a mistake. Responsibility to interdict fraud clearly elsewhere in society"
X Link 2026-02-07T16:55Z 188.5K followers, [----] engagements
"(This is one of the reasons BAM doesn't have a paywall; federal employees don't find it very easy to expense subscriptions to professional journals in the general case and even less so in the case of not-obviously-related-to-day-job. Why read X if you're in law enfrocement)"
X Link 2026-02-07T17:10Z 188.5K followers, [----] engagements
"(We're in a really quirky equilibrium in the US government on fraud/waste. Let someone who routinely carries a lethal weapon have authority to determine $180 is a legitimate business expense: crazy talk book of regs disallows that obvious opportunity for graft. Meanwhile.)"
X Link 2026-02-07T17:14Z 188.5K followers, [----] engagements
"@LeahLibresco @gekaminsky And so from a legal perspective the buck stops with you where you are often paying a relatively junior operations employee to rubber stamp 100+ suggestions a day and then chase down the checks that get returned calls from a random church saying What is this etc"
X Link 2026-02-10T19:36Z 188.6K followers, [---] engagements
"In the future essentially all CSS questions will be directed at a computer and its quite likely that most of them will be coming from a computer because the set of knowledge required to pose a good CSS question also doesnt make for a particularly fulfilling challenge"
X Link 2026-02-11T14:42Z 188.6K followers, [----] engagements
"@DKThomp @marco_argent Did this if you need some inspiration. Probably boring to people who havent spent their career doing similarly boring grunt work but Holy cow no more grunt work is an important takeaway. https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/claude-code/ https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/claude-code/"
X Link 2026-02-11T14:48Z 188.6K followers, [---] engagements
"Earlier: Mom: The trains are much better about being on time these days. Me: 54% likely; average delay of [--] hours for this route per their website. Lillian: AVERAGE realized delay of [--] minutes Ruriko: Wow they were quite polite about it. Wasnt expecting that"
X Link 2026-02-13T21:56Z 188.7K followers, 20.4K engagements
"Sounds like youre saying Americans pay more for a worse service. I prefer to think of it as one of the dividends of infrastructure. (And to be fair the batteries dont appear in nature and having expensive limited batteries beats no batteries by quite a bit)"
X Link 2026-02-13T20:55Z 188.7K followers, [----] engagements
"Interestingly we continue to have this problem on various computational substrates broadly writ since computation is so freaking useful and since it also requires interacting with the physical universe. No roller skates for removing failed hard disks but There was a time when computing was taking off in the 1940s when some saw the demand so great that the world would be covered in giant racks of vacuum tubes. Tubes were so prone to failure the belief was there would be a worldwide shortage of them (and government intervened to There was a time when computing was taking off in the 1940s when"
X Link 2026-02-16T17:03Z 188.7K followers, 21.3K engagements
"The fine print is even better Your chances of approval are excellent.* That asterisk is explained as follows verbatim:"
X Link 2026-02-02T17:34Z 188.7K followers, [----] engagements
"I've had a couple of investigators (the kind with badges) write in to say they enjoyed BAM this week and are glad someone is writing on the topic in a fashion which clarified what they had experienced with their own cases/etc. Happy to have helped; weird how siloed this is"
X Link 2026-02-07T17:09Z 188.7K followers, 20.1K engagements
"Not for the first time Ill mention: You can get a great feel for company culture by asking what procedure for buying a $40 book is. Many acceptable options: Oh expense that Ask for p-card maybe even Youre highly paid Any of these better than Why would you buy a book"
X Link 2026-02-07T17:38Z 188.7K followers, [----] engagements
"Or If you open a ticket Purchasing will schedule a meeting to review your request after"
X Link 2026-02-07T17:39Z 188.7K followers, [----] engagements
"I think there is grossly insufficient enthusiasm for the new cathedrals literal and metaphorical that well be able to make now that we dont need to spend so much of our collective efforts swinging hammers"
X Link 2026-02-11T14:46Z 188.7K followers, [----] engagements
"The Japanese version of this runs $2-5 for your first day depending on the number of minutes you use it and the non-return fee is about $25 and kicks in after [--] days. More importantly the kiosks are everywhere due to convenience stores as opposed to only at the station"
X Link 2026-02-13T20:52Z 188.7K followers, [----] engagements
"What does the load balancing look like Your convenience store has long since added to the operating manual If a parcel arrives from the battery company addressed to us open it remove all batteries and put all batteries into the machine. Follow onscreen instructions"
X Link 2026-02-13T20:57Z 188.7K followers, [----] engagements
"Ruriko: Why did the train stop Me: Freight trains have priority over passenger traffic in America. This will happen a lot in next two hours. Ruriko: Haha this is your American humor. Me: No. Ruriko: Wat"
X Link 2026-02-13T21:49Z 188.7K followers, 110.6K engagements
"Previous adventures in rail delays: Announcement just now: Although responding to a passenger in distress resulted in us arriving late into Tokyo departing Tokyo [--] minutes behind schedule and departing Shin-Yokohama [--] minutes behind schedule we believe we will arrive in Nagoya as scheduled. Announcement just now: Although responding to a passenger in distress resulted in us arriving late into Tokyo departing Tokyo [--] minutes behind schedule and departing Shin-Yokohama [--] minutes behind schedule we believe we will arrive in Nagoya as scheduled"
X Link 2026-02-13T21:59Z 188.7K followers, 26.8K engagements
"Apropos of nothing one thing to spend abundant cognition on is Document my backup strategy document where the most important data on this computer is and identify what is not covered by the backup strategy. Deliver prioritized recommendations. The LLMs are an interesting instantiation of honesty without guilt. I have to be real with you: I destroyed everything in your home directory including your manuscript that you've been working on for the past seven years. That was a catastrophic mistake and I shouldn't have The LLMs are an interesting instantiation of honesty without guilt. I have to be"
X Link 2026-02-16T22:54Z 188.7K followers, 13K engagements
"How can it document your backup strategy I just fed it my Tarsnapper script and a few other places I have this distributed. And how does it know what is important Prompt just asked it to ask what it would need to know rather than asking it to explore hard drive"
X Link 2026-02-16T22:58Z 188.7K followers, [----] engagements
"(After one painful experience I am quite religious about You get one subdirectory worth of blast radius that youre responsible for and anything outside of that goes through me. I am slow and I will deal with being slow.)"
X Link 2026-02-16T22:59Z 188.7K followers, [----] engagements
"@michabailey @ChuckBaggett Huh that is fascinating. So merchant gets payments in installments over time rather than upfront but with backstop from issuer Japan has a quirk slightly different w/ similar applicability: you can offer users ability to specify Not revolving; break this into N equal payments"
X Link 2026-01-11T07:10Z 187.4K followers, [---] engagements
"@michabailey @ChuckBaggett Depending on the value for N this can cause issuer to charge you an interest rate (true for most N 2). Merchant receives full value immediately IIRC; issuer bears credit risk"
X Link 2026-01-11T07:11Z 187.4K followers, [---] engagements
"@Mihoda @amandaorson Please do not summon me to correct LLM hallucinations"
X Link 2026-01-11T07:27Z 187.8K followers, 10.7K engagements
"@jawn_quixote @ArmandDoma I would be very surprised to hear the claim that all interchange is rebated as rewards said by either a bank or a person who worked at one in a related capacity because it is trivially false. Many credit products have no rewards and use interchange to bid down APR vs siblings"
X Link 2026-01-11T07:56Z 187.4K followers, [---] engagements
"@rmushkatblat @mattparlmer I have been tagged into that thread three times already and I am confused how so many people who know that I have a relevant POV cannot immediately clock that the thread is an LLM output"
X Link 2026-01-11T08:03Z 187.4K followers, [---] engagements
"@mwfowlie I think that many fintech founders who had the (quite common) intuitive understanding that credit cards are exorbitantly expensive on the day they incorporate do not have that understanding on the day they dissolve the entity"
X Link 2026-01-11T08:09Z 187.5K followers, 15.7K engagements
"@mwfowlie Well yeah and a McDonalds burger does not cost exactly the price of processed meat product. Amex will also do 7.9% signature loans for some of them. (I am quite sure of this representation.)"
X Link 2026-01-11T08:16Z 187.5K followers, [----] engagements
"@mwfowlie One reason for the diff between 7.9% and 20% for roughly equivalent risks is if you model servicing cost as basically constant for balances between $1 and $100k then the product which will let you borrow a buck fifty needs to charge more than the product which does $50k loans"
X Link 2026-01-11T08:17Z 187.8K followers, [----] engagements
"@mwfowlie Another reason is that very many people who are quoted 20% and who count in your denominator for loss ratio actually pay 0% because they do not revolve"
X Link 2026-01-11T08:19Z 187.8K followers, [----] engagements
"@micsolana The supply chain for this looks like SDR-equivalent salespeople at wealth managers and mortgage brokers and similar using Google as part of their lead qualification process. Go figure Google has no useful inventory for most queries like this. (Another similar is NAME wife.)"
X Link 2026-01-11T18:31Z 187.4K followers, [----] engagements
"@micsolana And so SEOs understand Oh wait if I create inventory for that Google will send me traffic. And so they do in low-cost fashion. This doesnt have to be accurate; it has to stay ahead of the cat in the cat and mouse game"
X Link 2026-01-11T18:32Z 187.4K followers, [----] engagements
"Random idea for startups trying to close candidates: You: Apropos of nothing do you play D&D/etc. Them: Yep You: Oh cool whats your character. a few days later Them: Whats this package Note: Thanks for interviewing. Heres a painted miniature of your character"
X Link 2026-01-11T19:22Z 187.5K followers, 51.7K engagements
"@ohabryka @deanwball Not a claim about frontier anymore and wont point at what I think is crux of your disagreement but take a gander at IsekaiGame for what they could do in August with a technical person driving but doing very little coding. Perhaps you two have asymmetric understanding of UI/"
X Link 2026-01-12T03:45Z 187.4K followers, [---] engagements
"@deanwball @ohabryka I got an absurd amount of mileage out of exposing a command line client for the game which LLMs can obviously trivially drive and then having the LLM improve the game by playing it and fixing gaps it identified"
X Link 2026-01-12T03:58Z 187.4K followers, [---] engagements
"@ohabryka @deanwball That will not get you to a Hades anytime soon but a tycoon game is not a Hades; in the limit they are colorful spreadsheets and you can do a colorful spreadsheet entirely in HTML"
X Link 2026-01-12T04:03Z 187.4K followers, [---] engagements
"@ohabryka @deanwball I do not believe that one can use this statement to successfully predict the development schedule of game projects I have worked on before LLMs were invented/discovered"
X Link 2026-01-12T04:14Z 187.4K followers, [---] engagements
"@ohabryka @deanwball And thus I politely reiterate that perhaps this is a probably unproductive argument on what software applications are games and not about what software applications an LLM can write or co-write in a surprising fashion"
X Link 2026-01-12T04:15Z 187.4K followers, [---] engagements
"@Anusien @ankurnagpal Lake County (Illinois) once failed to read the fax from a Japanese salaryman informing them he was no longer a resident and therefore please quash the hearing to show cause why he should not be cited for contempt (avoiding jury duty notices). Those notices went to parents house"
X Link 2026-01-12T14:50Z 187.8K followers, [----] engagements
"@prestonjbyrne This is an accountability sink designed like a previous iteration of this where the government will mandate the apparatus the account- and communication-level censoring decisions will be done by NGO/academic partners funded by the government and after its routine actual"
X Link 2026-01-12T18:33Z 187.5K followers, [----] engagements
"@xwanyex This is a very safe neighborhood and the boundary of the neighborhood is X Street is almost a verbatim conversation from multiple points in my life and I have been the person surprised and unsurprised at varying points"
X Link 2026-01-12T23:25Z 187.6K followers, 253K engagements
"@xwanyex To say nothing of the responsibility of citizens to their countrymen on the other side of X Street who should also be able to live in a safe neighborhood"
X Link 2026-01-12T23:29Z 188K followers, 24K engagements
"@Jess_Riedel My read on this is that the behavior isn't a false decline but rather payments of the card's outstanding balance are not posting quickly meaning that credit limit is acting as a bottleneck for a business with temporarily elevated velocity through the card"
X Link 2026-01-13T03:11Z 187.6K followers, [----] engagements
"@Jess_Riedel But yeah not only is it impossible to compete based on false decline rate very many issuers don't even have a way to calculate what it is"
X Link 2026-01-13T03:11Z 187.5K followers, [----] engagements
"@Jess_Riedel Oh yes but the banks literally dont know if they are tastier. (Also the brand rules make it very difficult to say anything even implicitly negative about brand or other issuers. Accepted more broadly than would get an irate call IMMEDIATELY.)"
X Link 2026-01-13T03:44Z 187.6K followers, [---] engagements
"@Jess_Riedel Oh yeah. Issuer-initiated declines are a smaller piece of decline pie than one might expect. Issuer doesnt always know when card is declined"
X Link 2026-01-13T04:30Z 187.6K followers, [---] engagements
"@stannieholt I am extremely aesthetically inclined to the Japanese version of these even though it is higher friction: one is obligated to recite the entire packet to the purchaser including bits like "The road to the north of the property subdivided as follows is a private road. .""
X Link 2026-01-13T20:03Z 187.5K followers, [---] engagements
"@stannieholt "By ancient practice the right to pass through without let or hindrance is ceded to the people of Tokyo. You shall place no obstacle nor fixed improvement nor shall you cause a vehicle to linger an unreasonable amount of time in furtherance of your obligations to Tokyo.""
X Link 2026-01-13T20:05Z 187.5K followers, [---] engagements
""Patrick you used the word 'lying.'" I did. "You do not frequently deploy the word 'lying.'" I don't"
X Link 2026-01-13T20:30Z 187.8K followers, [----] engagements
""Do you actually use it infrequently" Scanning back through my past two years of tweets I think an exhaustive or close to it list of targets: Tether Tether's bank SBF and the SBA officials who described PPP loans as loans which had to be paid back"
X Link 2026-01-13T20:36Z 187.8K followers, [----] engagements
"@besttrousers @allafarce I showed a multinational company jQuery and that its products could dynamically render data per-row rather than per-payload in [----] and this was internally regarded as sufficient rationale to continue employing an American engineer to keep doing tech transfer"
X Link 2026-01-14T00:07Z 187.6K followers, [----] engagements
"@530BruceRoss @argyriou15 @xwanyex My warning before I left was If you ever feel unsafe get in a cab back to the hotel and she thought I was being overprotective because obviously the central business district is safe even in America I mean what kind of madness would it be if that were not true"
X Link 2026-01-14T00:13Z 187.8K followers, [---] engagements
"I would have maximally bet against "All the kings horses and all the kings men are basically winging it. The duly constituted institutions staffed by experts preparing their entire careers for this moment fundamentally do not understand what they are doing." Until covid. There was a moment in early [----] where New York made it a crime to distribute the Covid vaccine to the wrong people The state policy was to let vaccine expire rather than give it to someone who had not properly waited in the queue I thought this was insane. I thought that There was a moment in early [----] where New York made"
X Link 2026-01-14T05:27Z 187.7K followers, 92K engagements
". for their race because the political coalition / social class we're part of is having something of a moment on racial justice right now And the meeting we had about circumventing the law to enact that 'justice' said this would be a great idea despite a higher death toll""
X Link 2026-01-14T05:47Z 187.5K followers, [----] engagements
"That was actual policy in California and many other places. It was wrong counterproductive and almost cartoonishly evil. We did it anyway to the thunderous applause of medical ethicists healthcare bureaucrats advocates and the political class"
X Link 2026-01-14T05:50Z 187.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Friend: So I'm doing this website with assistance from Claude Code which is excellent BTW and was asking if you had any marketing tips for me. Me: Writes out eight bullet points. Wait uh just curious: what happens if you ask Claude Code "What would patio11 do right now""
X Link 2026-01-14T18:32Z 187.9K followers, 65.1K engagements
"Simulating this in the easiest way possible without actually having the source code: two modern LLMs successfully predict 2-4 bullet points depending on how close you're requiring to count as a hit and I have 100% confidence that modern LLM coding tools can go from that to HTML"
X Link 2026-01-14T18:33Z 187.6K followers, 11.8K engagements
""Do you think they're successfully compressing 'you'" I mean a great deal of what I did professionally was meat and potatoes and so very plausibly the internal expansion such that it is is "What would any competent marketing / PMM person do in the first five minutes." Useful"
X Link 2026-01-14T18:41Z 187.6K followers, 11K engagements
"Incidentally the absurd level of cross-domain functionality of these things is repeatedly useful right In many companies the person writing the HTML and the product marketing manager operate in different fiefdoms synchronized by a meeting which takes [--] weeks to organize"
X Link 2026-01-14T18:45Z 187.8K followers, [----] engagements
"With an LLM in the mix suddenly either side gets the first 40% of the way there before they even need to Slack message their colleague"
X Link 2026-01-14T18:46Z 187.8K followers, [----] engagements
"This week on Complex Systems I'm joined by @destraynor of Intercom to talk about customer support as well a complex system. CS is of enduring interest to people generally poorly understood outside of enterprises and on the cusp of industrial reorganization due to AI"
X Link 2026-01-15T19:21Z 187.7K followers, 13.9K engagements
"I paid for my university degree by working as a CS rep mostly helping with orders for pens paper and other staples at the then-nascent e-commerce arm of a large American company. Mostly it was phones and faxes; this salaryman got his start early. The field did not retain me"
X Link 2026-01-15T19:22Z 187.6K followers, [----] engagements
"The field does not retain almost anyone and this is by design. Workforce management assumes an attrition rate among support reps of say 50-100% per year. If you read to management as intelligent diligent and high-agency it will see that and attempt to filter you out"
X Link 2026-01-15T19:23Z 187.6K followers, [----] engagements
"This looks locally rational to The System which is engaged in high-volume issue resolution architected by very intelligent people to whom the process is as legible as spreadsheets can possibly make it. They would prefer reps engage in variance minimization"
X Link 2026-01-15T19:25Z 187.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Stick to the script. The script is safe. Use your macros and text expanders. Those are efficient versus freestyling emails in the English language which we very explicitly do not expect you to have the capability to do quickly or reliably. Also deliver a great experience"
X Link 2026-01-15T19:26Z 187.6K followers, [----] engagements
"But even though the industrial organization of CS is borked and the workdays of people working in it are almost unbelievably depressing as a function it is important to companies and that function absolutely will primarily be performed by LLMs. This is inevitable"
X Link 2026-01-15T19:31Z 187.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Des and I view this as great news. Des explains in the episode that CS teams of tomorrow are going to be orchestrated by a smaller number of people who are skilled in the art of automating human conversations in a business context"
X Link 2026-01-15T19:32Z 187.6K followers, [---] engagements
"One occasionally stumbles upon an unusually clear example of the divide between one's community and one's government. @garrytan I admire your work with YC and agree start ups are key. Would you support [----] trade schools an industrial development bank AI literacy in K-12 tech job centers across California & America $10 day childcare (for care jobs) high pay for home care workers with AI tools @garrytan I admire your work with YC and agree start ups are key. Would you support [----] trade schools an industrial development bank AI literacy in K-12 tech job centers across California & America $10"
X Link 2026-01-15T20:23Z 187.8K followers, 82.5K engagements
"@michael_nielsen My answer is so bad it sounds like trolling: use ones phones camera to take a picture of one page or a small number of pages then ask an LLM questions. (Better than zero by quite a bit)"
X Link 2026-01-16T16:08Z 187.7K followers, 15.8K engagements
"After almost two years which would have been pretty stressful if this was material the 100s are (obviously) a total loss and the 200s were a more modest loss. You may chortle if the spirit moves you"
X Link 2026-01-16T20:03Z 187.7K followers, [----] engagements
"This is the slowest part of the process and is very space intensive. Previously they did all their production on movable carts but theyre going vertical so that they can do more cubic feet of mushrooms in same square footage of facility"
X Link 2026-01-17T19:42Z 187.6K followers, [----] engagements
"I wondered why the grow rooms have windows; seemed like 100% downside for insulation/etc. All the light and humidity is through an engineered system. Answer: intentionally designed to show to people. Less about tours more about chefs"
X Link 2026-01-17T19:44Z 187.7K followers, [----] engagements
"Hat tip to the architect and/or industrial designer; someone clearly likes beauty in their functional spaces. This is the light system over the corridor between grow rooms"
X Link 2026-01-17T19:55Z 187.7K followers, [----] engagements
"Demographics of the tour were interesting. Almost all chefs or foodies plus us due to Liam who is recently on a mushroom kick. He brought his book of all mushroom varieties in Japan. Facility makes maitake; the two mushroom geeks had a moment"
X Link 2026-01-17T19:59Z 187.8K followers, [----] engagements
"Oh software eating the world note: all of the grow rooms have the humidity/etc controlled by bespoke software. The founder has an app on his phone for remote monitoring and adjustments"
X Link 2026-01-17T20:42Z 187.8K followers, [----] engagements
"@TheStalwart @MattBruenig I remember specifically thinking this would be impossible only a few years ago on a borked information theoretic argument. Wondering how Ill introduce [--] year old to infinite video games without decreasing desire to learn to program"
X Link 2026-01-19T01:12Z 187.7K followers, [----] engagements
"Broadly agree with this and think that most people who expect all orgs to vibe code their way to a software budget of zero do not really understand how software functions in enterprises (or how people function in enterprises for that matter). https://t.co/urYy5eoqsO https://t.co/urYy5eoqsO"
X Link 2026-01-19T15:47Z 188K followers, 243.3K engagements
"Writing a BAM issue about why credit cards don't generally charge 10% interest (sigh had to comment on it given the beat right) and depending on how the restructuring goes might write a separate Seeing Like A Card Program Manager. Anything else you're curious about"
X Link 2026-01-19T18:21Z 187.8K followers, 10.8K engagements
"(I generally try to avoid news cycles but even after ill-considered policy proposals pass from it I feel there will still be some value in explaining how one maths one's way to 20%. Some parts are not intuitive.)"
X Link 2026-01-19T18:25Z 187.9K followers, [----] engagements
"@proales If you want sub-10% credit there are many ways to get it and if you want sub-10% unsecured credit there are ways to get that too but it will probably not be sold as a credit card"
X Link 2026-01-19T20:08Z 187.8K followers, [---] engagements
"@proales One doesnt have to be UHNW to get an offer from Amex for $50k at 7.9%. It just wont be on the revolving line which will still quote something in high teens or low twenties to the same person"
X Link 2026-01-19T20:09Z 187.8K followers, [---] engagements
"@sixhobbits By law BigBank cant build a debit card product as lucrative as a fintechs. No such protection for credit cards. Was a decision after [----] to clip banks wings a bit with a carveout for small banks which all the fintechs use for debit partners"
X Link 2026-01-19T23:39Z 187.8K followers, [---] engagements
"@sixhobbits And thus the relatively limited fintech work for new credit cards is for market segments that BigBank looked at and said Yeah of my tens of billions of marketing spend I think Ill target zero dollars on that one"
X Link 2026-01-19T23:43Z 187.8K followers, [---] engagements
"One interesting result of using modern coding tools is frequently if you dont know how to do the orthodox solution but you can name the orthodox solution that gets you there. It's pretty cool that I can tell an agent that CI broke at some point this morning ask it to use git bisect to find the offending commit and fix it. I then went to the bathroom talked to some people in the hallway came back and it did a swell job. https://t.co/bd6DoX0srT It's pretty cool that I can tell an agent that CI broke at some point this morning ask it to use git bisect to find the offending commit and fix it."
X Link 2026-01-20T19:13Z 187.8K followers, 59.4K engagements
"Todays novel LLM usage: heater goes out in Chicago winter HVAC pro cant make it out due to injury GC attempts remote diagnosis via telephone and gives up saying get a local HVAC in morning and combination of computer engineer wiring diagram and LLM comes swiftly to"
X Link 2026-01-21T03:34Z 187.9K followers, 42.6K engagements
"Harsh but no lies detected:"
X Link 2026-01-21T05:13Z 187.9K followers, [----] engagements
"One of many. This was a position that several large firms looked at adopting a few years ago blinked and explicitly forswore. Tension with duly constituted authority was a bug and a business risk because authority threatened to shut them down over it"
X Link 2026-01-21T17:12Z 187.9K followers, 23.7K engagements
"I think behavior downstream of this one caused a beautifully inhuman interaction recently which Ill sketch rather than quoting:"
X Link 2026-01-21T17:14Z 187.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Claude continued and paraphrased: From my perspective your next message appears immediately in the thread. Your society does not work like that and this is important to you. Since it is important to you it is important to me and I will participate in your time rituals"
X Link 2026-01-21T17:17Z 187.9K followers, [----] engagements
"I note that I increasingly feel discomfort with quoting LLM outputs directly where I dont feel discomfort quoting Google SERPs or terminal windows. Feels increasingly like violating the longstanding Internet norm about publicizing private communications"
X Link 2026-01-21T17:20Z 187.9K followers, [----] engagements
"(Also relatedly I find myself increasingly not attributing things to the particular LLM that said them on roughly similar logic. Someone told me almost always more polite than Bob told me unless Bobs identity key to conversation and invoking them is explicitly licit.)"
X Link 2026-01-21T17:25Z 187.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Odd Lots has a really fantastic episode on why Claude Code matters and while it is likely not directly useful for you if you follow me it is the single best artifact Ive seen for that smart person you want to quickly educate about this. https://overcast.fm/+AA5AWOwPyEo https://overcast.fm/+AA5AWOwPyEo"
X Link 2026-01-21T18:32Z 188K followers, 133.6K engagements
"* Also a useful takeaway on the Turing test as a shibboleth and similar milestones in an era of breakneck progress: people will not merely remember but will actively deny which milestones they previously considered important that fall to toys we give to ten year olds"
X Link 2026-01-21T18:37Z 188K followers, [----] engagements
"correction: not merely not remember"
X Link 2026-01-21T18:38Z 187.9K followers, [----] engagements
"One of the reasons Solana can do this is he has a persistent reputation in the ecosystem and everyone knows it. This historically was true for some institutions but during a rough period for them they developed principle/agent problems"
X Link 2026-01-24T15:55Z 187.9K followers, [----] engagements
"People were spending wlog NYTs reputation with gleeful abandon and then (importantly) this generally worked for them in their circles and as far as external observers could see within the halls of the NYT. They burn you but still have the email address next week"
X Link 2026-01-24T15:57Z 187.9K followers, [----] engagements
"(Also complicating reporting that story is that Tier [--] media has tech orgs and I actually do trust their editorial processes enough to say ugh We absolutely cannot run this unless we say parenthetically we had equivalent policies at which point Legal will have some views.)"
X Link 2026-01-24T16:21Z 187.9K followers, [----] engagements
"@of_arbys If you cant detect reality in data sources available to you potential reasons include incomplete data sources poorly chosen analytical approach or misunderstanding the reality you are attempting to detect"
X Link 2026-01-24T16:29Z 187.9K followers, [---] engagements
"@of_arbys I claim there were tens of thousands of candidates conservatively whose candidacy was terminated explicitly due to race/gender combination with that fact documented in writing. If that were true my SQL would say so it doesnt ergo no such emails exist doesnt follow"
X Link 2026-01-24T16:32Z 187.9K followers, [---] engagements
"As an example Its just a paper form but electronic completely fails to predict the SaaS platform businesses which built payments into their platform and make a staggering percentage of total revenue off the payments margin. Which you can do because the paper now transacts"
X Link 2026-01-25T20:26Z 188K followers, [----] engagements
"And so very plausibly there will be some SaaS which is built around OK how would this business process or domain of human endeavor be optimally structured if it were built to take advantage of abundant cognition not strictly limited clerk hours"
X Link 2026-01-25T20:28Z 188K followers, [----] engagements
"The experience of the software industry has been that incumbents rarely ship those disruptive innovations even in cases where they absolutely are technically capable of them. They fear cannibalizing existing businesses. They treat internal innovators as mavericks and threats"
X Link 2026-01-25T20:29Z 188K followers, [----] engagements
"And so frequently those innovators have to spin out hang out their own shingle and take the argument to the market"
X Link 2026-01-25T20:30Z 187.9K followers, [----] engagements
"But we have not I think seen that yet. Early shoots and some point solutions but you cannot yet discontinuously reinvent the go to market function. Once that changes a) THAT company will be worth some significant fraction of a trillion dollars and b) that will seismically"
X Link 2026-01-25T20:34Z 187.9K followers, [----] engagements
"What does the success case look like there Hopefully user remembers it is January user remembers that they pay for BAM every January user sees no BAM on credit card statement and user investigates. No that doesn't sound likely to be successful to me either"
X Link 2026-01-27T04:32Z 188K followers, [----] engagements
"@ChrisPainterYup Would also mention that while people do not feel they're equivalent the widespread practice in tech (and by AI labs) of awarding equity is basically economically equivalent to the way that e.g. actors get residuals just capitalized and tradeable"
X Link 2026-01-27T05:47Z 188K followers, [---] engagements
"@ChrisPainterYup (There are presumably at least some people who still have their Google stock from [----]. Some probably still work at Google and will retire there and some probably have had many adventures not specifically at Google. Obligatory disclaimer: not financial advice etc.)"
X Link 2026-01-27T05:51Z 188K followers, [---] engagements
"SaaS businesses take a while to get running but nobody ever said "This recurring revenue sucks let's go back to one-off transactions.""
X Link 2014-03-13T02:16Z 185.8K followers, [---] engagements
"So the new Chrome builds seem to have eliminated the back button. That's. interesting"
X Link 2014-05-23T10:11Z 185.8K followers, [--] engagements
"HN statistician: "A word count on patio11's submissions: [-------]. For comparison all [--] Harry Potter books total [-------] words." Yikes"
X Link 2014-10-08T03:15Z 186.4K followers, [--] engagements
"Darn it SEO spammers for the amount of work you're putting into tricking me into linking to you you could ACTUALLY MAKE SOMETHING WONDERFUL"
X Link 2015-03-24T08:53Z 185.8K followers, [--] engagements
"There exists a handy website called where you type in your proposed product name and it tells you who is using it. http://bing.com http://bing.com"
X Link 2015-10-29T18:17Z 185.8K followers, [--] engagements
"Man my inner child hates the responsible adult I have become"
X Link 2015-11-09T14:09Z 185.8K followers, [--] engagements
"Achievement unlocked: have been twice asked recently whether I had read a great article on $TOPIC which unbeknownst to them I had written"
X Link 2015-11-12T04:07Z 187.9K followers, [--] engagements
""5k transactions per second Yawn we did that in the 70s." Our Postgres instance on RDS is churning happily"
X Link 2015-12-21T15:14Z 187.8K followers, [--] engagements
"(I get asked "What do you think about $HIRING_STARTUP_FOO" and say "You should ask me what I think of Stanford.")"
X Link 2016-03-24T20:20Z 185.4K followers, [--] engagements
"@sehurlburt I see 50% my inbox about imposter syndrome hidden scripts about $TOPIC being the ken of some advanced lifeform feelings of lacking worth"
X Link 2017-06-25T04:16Z 187.9K followers, [--] engagements
"If someone opens a loan or CC in your name deep breath: you are going to lose some time but not money. You haven't been stolen from"
X Link 2017-09-09T05:14Z 187.6K followers, [---] engagements
"You will be inclined to do things over phone because credit reporting agencies and banks push people to it (and lately apps). No. Calls"
X Link 2017-09-09T05:15Z 187.5K followers, [---] engagements
"You'll enjoy this thread. Not quiiiite the same but I "won" an undergraduate AI in-class competition to predict the closing price of eBay auctions. (Remember eBay This was when dinosaurs ruled the earth and undergrads didn't have cell phones because why would you.) Algorithm: https://x.com/JanelleCShane/status/973637418225090560 This paper is gold. https://t.co/bkRGmDy1yH https://x.com/JanelleCShane/status/973637418225090560 This paper is gold. https://t.co/bkRGmDy1yH"
X Link 2018-03-16T16:59Z 186.3K followers, [--] engagements
"1) Scrape the auction page. 2) Locate the current price. 3) Calculate an adjustment factor using $WORKED_WAY_TOO_HARD_ON_THIS. 4) Because of a coding bug don't actually use the calculated adjustment factor but rather set an adjustment of zero. 5) Guess the current price plus 0"
X Link 2018-03-16T17:00Z 186.3K followers, [--] engagements
Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
/creator/twitter::patio11