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[@convexititties](/creator/twitter/convexititties)
"The Street is at EPS of $XXXX for 3Q on revenues of $364M. Im at EPS of $XXXX on revenues of $390M. Short interest surged an additional 500K to 6.1M between 7/15 and 7/31 and short interest now represents XX% of float. Get ready for an epic squeeze 📈 $SNBR 😴🛌"  
[X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1955634355608375649) [@convexititties](/creator/x/convexititties) 2025-08-13T14:15Z 3069 followers, 3144 engagements


"Hydreight Technologies $HYDTF announced the acquisition of an AI agent asset from Auxano for an up-front payment of USD $70K and various milestone payments including: 1) full integration of Auxanos AI agent into Hydreights tech stack (+120K shares at C$4.20 or C$504K) and 2) $5M revenue milestone from the asset (+55K shares at $XXXX or C$231K). I peg to total potential transaction value at C$810K. The AI Agent analyzes patient health data against standardized protocols to generate personalized IV therapy supplements and preventative treatment recommendations. Essentially the AI agent is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1965034805076132128) [@convexititties](/creator/x/convexititties) 2025-09-08T12:49Z 3069 followers, 1526 engagements


"The ironic thing about the recent BDC meltdown is that it was triggered by Tricolor which was primarily funded by banks. Also First Brands was a syndicate led by Jefferies with minimal BDC participations (if so it was acquired through secondary market) Neither of which offer a particularly good read through to the private direct lending market that BDCs focus. To that point BDC defaults peaked in 2Q24 and have been declining gradually ever since Meanwhile prevailing sentiment is that Tricolor is the canary in the coal mine for BDCs and private credit. But the reality of the matter is that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1976281824310477030) [@convexititties](/creator/x/convexititties) 2025-10-09T13:41Z 3068 followers, 4018 engagements


"Imagine youre a bank and you have a maturing multi-family loan that cant handle the rate reset from X% to X% from a DSCR perspective The borrower doesnt want to add equity as the property will still cash flow at the higher rate and the borrower expects lower future rates. That said the DSCR is just 1.10x at X% instead of 1.50x at X% which is below the 1.25x minimum to be bank quality. What do you do You cant simply tell the borrower to beat it because your lender worked a year to earn the relationship. Also the borrower has XX% of the remaining balance in DDA deposits with you plus a $2M"  
[X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1978419791397294338) [@convexititties](/creator/x/convexititties) 2025-10-15T11:16Z 3069 followers, 17.8K engagements


"Context: the $move index measures the implied vol of treasury yields and it has been absolutely crushed since Liberation Day. This suggests a meaningful swing in Treasury yields is afoot although it gives no indication of which direction. I believe sharply lower"  
[X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1978466626304405888) [@convexititties](/creator/x/convexititties) 2025-10-15T14:22Z 3069 followers, 2124 engagements


"Ive received a few DMs recently about my thoughts on $VSQTF versus $HYDTF so I figured that I would add them to this thread: I hear and respect the argument from the value purists about the NAV discount of $VSQTF as its XXXX% stake in $HYDTF is worth $53.8M CAD as of Fridays close which exceeds Victory Squares current market cap of $34.3M CAD (36% discount). That said I would argue that in a silo the discount to NAV on Victory Squares Hydreight stake is warranted given the large absolute size and subsequent illiquidity of the stake. To clarify if Victory Square were to liquidate its stake in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1888438314161852557) [@convexititties](/creator/x/convexititties) 2025-02-09T04:02Z 3067 followers, 2763 engagements


"M Partners Fund run by John Mirshekari (spent XX years as PM at Fidelity) just disclosed in a 13G filing that it increased its Sleep Number stake by 718K shares since 4/28 to 2.26M shares or XXXX% of total (prior 6.78%). M Partners Fund likely stopped accumulating just shy of XX% because it would trigger an immediate reporting requirement with the SEC in my opinion. That said increasing their stake by X% (to 9.94%) is also material and requires reporting but the SEC likely gave them the standard XX days from end of quarter (Aug XX deadline) in my view. If so shares were likely accumulated in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1956049389408891227) [@convexititties](/creator/x/convexititties) 2025-08-14T17:44Z 3067 followers, 1492 engagements


"Mattress and home sales have historically been highly correlated as many people buy a new mattress when they move. That said home sales have been just modestly above GFC levels for X consecutive years (2023-2025) which has meaningfully pressured mattress demand. Per Somnigroup $SGI the parent company of Tempur-Sealy and Mattress firm U.S. produced mattress units were just 16.7M in 2024 versus the trailing 10-yr average of 22.8M (-25%). Housing transactions are projected to increase modestly in 2025 which could signal that transactions have already bottomed assuming mortgage rates do not"  
[X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1974862559707578648) [@convexititties](/creator/x/convexititties) 2025-10-05T15:41Z 3065 followers, 2931 engagements


"If so: Mortgage spreads 📉 Housing transactions 📈 Second order effect You already know what Im thinking 🛌😉"  
[X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1978137492806074774) [@convexititties](/creator/x/convexititties) 2025-10-14T16:35Z 3068 followers, 5685 engagements


"Unpopular opinions: 1) the jobs market is stronger today than it was X months ago and it is getting stronger. 2) a couple high-profile bankruptcies (clearly impacted by deportations) doesnt mean that credit risk is systemic. 3) the dollar is likely to strengthen meaningfully which should ease inflation pressures and stimulate demand for USTs. 4) we are no where near the top"  
[X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1978406634129920001) [@convexititties](/creator/x/convexititties) 2025-10-15T10:24Z 3068 followers, 2705 engagements


"@watt_the_jeff LT bond yields spike higher"  
[X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1978817144881135887) [@convexititties](/creator/x/convexititties) 2025-10-16T13:35Z 3065 followers, XX engagements


"Sleep Number $SNBR announced that it will release 3Q results on November 5th before market open. In conjunction it also announced that it will participate in the Raymond James and KeyBank investor conferences in early-December. Maybe Im under thinking it or just biased but I doubt that a new C-suite would choose to make their investor conference debut a month after a shit quarter"  
[X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1978861473117208817) [@convexititties](/creator/x/convexititties) 2025-10-16T16:31Z 3066 followers, 2497 engagements