#  @convexititties Convexititties, CFA Convexititties, CFA posts on X about $snbr, $hydtf, $oscr, $tsla the most. They currently have [---------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1763355951480913920/interactions)  - [--] Week [------] -37% - [--] Month [-------] +236% - [--] Months [-------] +2.20% - [--] Year [---------] +305% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1763355951480913920/posts_active)  - [--] Month [--] -18% - [--] Months [---] -11% - [--] Year [---] +59% ### Followers: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::1763355951480913920/followers)  - [--] Week [-----] +1% - [--] Month [-----] +5.30% - [--] Months [-----] +33% - [--] Year [-----] +243% ### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::1763355951480913920/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [finance](/list/finance) [stocks](/list/stocks) [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) [countries](/list/countries) [celebrities](/list/celebrities) [us election](/list/us-election) [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations) [social networks](/list/social-networks) **Social topic influence** [$snbr](/topic/$snbr), [$hydtf](/topic/$hydtf), [$oscr](/topic/$oscr), [$tsla](/topic/$tsla), [stocks](/topic/stocks) #2868, [bullish](/topic/bullish), [debt](/topic/debt), [$hims](/topic/$hims), [$nursv](/topic/$nursv), [$opad](/topic/$opad) **Top assets mentioned** [Oscar Health, Inc. (OSCR)](/topic/$oscr) [Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)](/topic/$tsla) [Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (HIMS)](/topic/$hims) [Mog Coin (MOG)](/topic/mog-coin) [aelf (ELF)](/topic/$elf) [Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER)](/topic/$uber) [Opendoor Technologies Inc Common Stock (OPEN)](/topic/$open) [Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/bitcoin) [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$googl) [Somnigroup International Inc. (SGI)](/topic/$sgi) [NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA)](/topic/$nvda) [Celsius Holdings, Inc. Common Stock (CELH)](/topic/$celh) [Centene Corp (CNC)](/topic/$cnc) [CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA)](/topic/$cava) [Ethereum (ETH)](/topic/ethereum) [American Superconductor Corp (AMSC)](/topic/$amsc) [Atkore Inc. (ATKR)](/topic/$atkr) [Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)](/topic/$amzn) [SPDR S&P [---] ETF Trust (SPY)](/topic/$spy) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "If transportation and delivery go autonomous how will $UBER make money I understand that the current narrative is that Uber is bullishly leaning into autonomy by forming partnerships with autonomous fleet operators like Waymo which sounds great at the surface. However why does Waymo or any other autonomous fleet operator need Uber The only argument Ive heard consistently is that because Uber already has millions of users. While this may have been extremely valuable in years past it has never been easier to rapidly scale users when you have a highly desirable product. We saw ChatGPT scale from" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1943226115335569831) 2025-07-10T08:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@tradedollarnut Is $AMR a buy" [X Link](https://x.com/neguhtiveAlpha/status/1768486790174810475) 2024-03-15T03:58Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@EdwardDiGi Quite the opposite. They raised prices 20% and didnt see any drop off in demand. Customers are saying they will pay literally any price" [X Link](https://x.com/NegguhtiveAlpha/status/1778016740057764174) 2024-04-10T11:06Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@KingKong9888 @DonaldW60852684 Why do these countries keep telegraphing their attacks lol Isnt the art of surprise military 101" [X Link](https://x.com/NegguhtiveAlpha/status/1779572280823009768) 2024-04-14T18:07Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@InvestRoiss $META went like 5x after its layoffs" [X Link](https://x.com/NegguhtiveAlpha/status/1779793798018572419) 2024-04-15T08:48Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@blondesnmoney Better close the $TSLA short 🙂" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1782481176021655691) 2024-04-22T18:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$TSLA +12% to [---] in pre-market on China FSD news. My $172 avg cost position is now solidly in the green. The extreme disdain many have for Tesla is an interesting psychological phenomena. My suspicion is much of it has to do with Elons politics/Twitter antics. Emotions cloud judgement. The pathway for Tesla to become the largest company in the World is clear and obvious to me" [X Link](https://x.com/NegguhtiveAlpha/status/1784924537823330317) 2024-04-29T12:35Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "$NYCB management apologizes for the late notification of the date of the Companys earnings call 😭😂 Fireworks tomorrow at 7am" [X Link](https://x.com/NegguhtiveAlpha/status/1785427072778748267) 2024-04-30T21:52Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@eyeslasho If it was a MAGA protest ShaQueefa wouldve thrown them all in jail. She is a perfect depiction of affirmative action" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1786083841934815621) 2024-05-02T17:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@jbulltard1 $TSLA will 5x or more. Rates will be slashed oil will scream higher gas will be $10/gallon. Everyone will be forced into EVs and govt will augment demand with bigger tax credits. EVs will be cheaper to operate because you can power with nat gas and uranium" [X Link](https://x.com/NegguhtiveAlpha/status/1786392442838630897) 2024-05-03T13:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@jbulltard1 The rolls Royce 😭😮💨🔥" [X Link](https://x.com/NegguhtiveAlpha/status/1787572341419000131) 2024-05-06T19:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "$GIFI $61M cash $113M MC $22M EBITDA est. for [----]. $36M of DTAs. Getting back on the conference circuit. Suggested that skilled labor shortage was growth bottleneck and that Large scale fab contracts are being issued more slowly due to higher rates. Hopefully they deploy cash soon to acquire other participants at this cycle bottom" [X Link](https://x.com/NegguhtiveAlpha/status/1788039872067801349) 2024-05-08T02:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@red_dog_capital @ChrisOlin @red_dog_capital The Emotional Investor 😭😂" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1788128689835663387) 2024-05-08T08:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@NCSI_SA Penny flippers probably piled in ahead of ER hoping to make a quick buck on a pop. No reason for another 20%+ move til a contract or acquisition is announced imo. Now the penny flippers are dumping" [X Link](https://x.com/NegguhtiveAlpha/status/1788230725814149336) 2024-05-08T15:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Its kind of a rate play imo. Large fab projects are being delayed due to higher funding costs and economic uncertainty. Feels like a cyclical bottom for the fab industry. Having a big cash pile at this point of cycle is rare. $GIFI would be wise to utilize it for an acquisition asap while multiples are low. If we get cuts I would expect project awards and multiple expansion. Powerful combo. No cuts = dead money probably" [X Link](https://x.com/NegguhtiveAlpha/status/1788236639782793310) 2024-05-08T15:56Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Back to b/e on my $172 $TSLA position. April CPI will likely surprise to the downside on May [--] driven by lower OER. Rate cut expectations will surge and car loan rates will decline over time which will stimulate Demand particularly for EVs given the tax credits and stubbornly high gas prices. No doubt in my mind $TSLA will be 200+ by May [--] market close" [X Link](https://x.com/NegguhtiveAlpha/status/1788650819555914034) 2024-05-09T19:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Its kind of a rate play imo. Large fab projects are being delayed due to higher funding costs and economic uncertainty. Feels like a cyclical bottom for the fab industry. Having a big cash pile at this point of cycle is rare. $GIFI would be wise to utilize it for an acquisition or buybacks asap while multiples are low. If we get cuts I would expect project awards to drive up earnings and multiple expansion. Powerful combo. I expect the curve to price in more cuts following the May [--] CPI release which will undoubtedly come in below expectations" [X Link](https://x.com/NegguhtiveAlpha/status/1788651732748120516) 2024-05-09T19:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Weekly portfolio update #3 Tragedy has struck. GIFI and ATKR dumped hard on earnings. Lone trade this week was adding to ATKR at $162. - ✅" [X Link](https://x.com/NegguhtiveAlpha/status/1789041004533711188) 2024-05-10T21:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@PauloMacro Americans are being crushed by inflation which is only being exacerbated by higher interest rates given everyone is levered up. $GME can go much higher this time. This is a revolution" [X Link](https://x.com/NegguhtiveAlpha/status/1790351420043989165) 2024-05-14T12:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Weekly portfolio update #4 Pretty shit week but the strong $UEC move on Friday actually generated some modest positive + for the week. Recently announced Sleepy Joe tariffs should benefit $GIFI and $TSLA. Protectionist stance by both candidates probably benefits $ATKR too longer term. $SWBI keeps bleeding like a stuck pig but earnings are around the corner. Seadrill reported a $545K clean day rate which bodes well for $RIG just hope I have enough duration on those calls for the move to $10. - ✅" [X Link](https://x.com/NegguhtiveAlpha/status/1791595604201636305) 2024-05-17T22:24Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@CECL_Allowance No you are correct" [X Link](https://x.com/NegguhtiveAlpha/status/1791827539263942977) 2024-05-18T13:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@ThatOneDutchGuy @HighyieldHarry lol cry harder snowflake 😂" [X Link](https://x.com/NegguhtiveAlpha/status/1792139697952616759) 2024-05-19T10:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Aureliusltd28 Excl. $CARE I would L/S $NEWT/$EGBN" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1793354101272531360) 2024-05-22T18:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@jbulltard1 Hes rolling them out" [X Link](https://x.com/NegguhtiveAlpha/status/1800983049204793447) 2024-06-12T20:06Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@Matt_E_Baumann Didnt you get fired from Tesla" [X Link](https://x.com/NegguhtiveAlpha/status/1802296367156461756) 2024-06-16T11:05Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@eyeslasho Murder rate is positively correlated with concentration of blacks" [X Link](https://x.com/NegguhtiveAlpha/status/1802716499569717268) 2024-06-17T14:54Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Wife spends a ton at $LULU but I dont care because it makes me horny seeing her walk around in skin tight clothes all day and apparently it inspires her to work out even more. Maybe its the perfect business model Might go giga long 🤔" [X Link](https://x.com/NegguhtiveAlpha/status/1803097738743034333) 2024-06-18T16:09Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@jbulltard1 Time to rotate into $TSLA" [X Link](https://x.com/NegguhtiveAlpha/status/1803797777253613753) 2024-06-20T14:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@blondesnmoney @CECL_Allowance @bigcoveranch Call me Shawn Johnson cause I think its a buy" [X Link](https://x.com/NegguhtiveAlpha/status/1806173083440439357) 2024-06-27T03:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Litz walking into the office today $CARE" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1806309601123393730) 2024-06-27T12:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@jbulltard1 $AMZN doesnt have Elon Musk the Thomas Edison of our time" [X Link](https://x.com/NegguhtiveAlpha/status/1806363425070575692) 2024-06-27T16:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@JasonGWild @DougKass Its DOCTOR Jill Biden to you" [X Link](https://x.com/NegguhtiveAlpha/status/1806694797412851786) 2024-06-28T14:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Transcript intelligence generated a summary of an earnings call in less than a minute and its better than what I couldve done in an hour. My job is not safe" [X Link](https://x.com/NegguhtiveAlpha/status/1813217610764283945) 2024-07-16T14:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Biden is more fucked than a fixed income PM with a barbell strat going into a positive butterfly twist" [X Link](https://x.com/NegguhtiveAlpha/status/1814011396830769275) 2024-07-18T18:56Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Shares trading down around [---] right now after the earnings report. I really dont care what the results were Im still not inclined to sell which kind of makes me think Im in a cult. I have been susceptible to cult stocks in the past and it has cost me dearly. Oh well" [X Link](https://x.com/NegguhtiveAlpha/status/1816162892539973839) 2024-07-24T17:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Shares down below [---] in pre-market. Almost all gains evaporated. Considering adding more but probably go with $CRWD instead. VIX [--] doesnt come very often. Better take advantage" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1820448000071569446) 2024-08-05T13:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$NYCB does a 3-1 reverse split and then maintains the dividend at $0.01. Pretty slick way of reducing the dividend by 66%" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1820887933190299766) 2024-08-06T18:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@CCM_Brett Is Lululemon a regional bank" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1822770301626634267) 2024-08-11T23:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@marketplunger1 Me on Monday morning while taking a shit and checking futes after shorting VIX Friday AMC" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1822772718279786532) 2024-08-11T23:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@hkuppy Your libtard is showing. Trump is wonderfully entertaining" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1828512929446039576) 2024-08-27T19:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@TheSonOfWalkley The FSD Tesla semi will change the World" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1828513139970670597) 2024-08-27T19:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Ford_Nick Salt & corn" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1828513678980686214) 2024-08-27T19:23Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Imagine youre a novice investor who made an ostensibly low-risk investment in $DG and then you wake up to -30% like you invested in an unprofitable shitco lmao 😂" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1829166036962415000) 2024-08-29T14:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "This is the cheapest $ELF has been on forward earnings since the stock was $21. Im in" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1835706181261689080) 2024-09-16T15:43Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Since this post: $DCOM +33% $NVDA -8% L/S $DCOM/$NVDA L/S $DCOM/$NVDA" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1836051031572066596) 2024-09-17T14:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$TSLA at [---] now. Side note I did end up adding $CRWD at [---] on the day the VIX spiked as referenced in my prior tweet. Wouldve bought the open at [---] but compliance took forever to clear the trade. Anyways lower forward rates should help $TSLA but some demand has already been pulled forward from its promotional interest rate offerings. Then again this whole thesis really hinges on 10/10. The FSD videos Ive seen have been encouraging but we will see over time. I know Elons track record is checkered in terms of meeting publicly-stated objectives but look at what he has achieved so far across" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1836054693472092424) 2024-09-17T14:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$ELF Long runway for growth expanding margins reasonable forward valuation (28x NTM earnings in line with lower growth peers $EL and $LRLCY). Should revert to a premium valuation (40-50x) at some point given outsized growth opportunities and market share gains. On $4 NTM EPS that puts my 12-month price target at $160-200 or 45-80% upside" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1838917478337949827) 2024-09-25T12:24Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "NTM FCF yields for the cyber security cohort $CHKP $PANW $FTNT $ZS $CRWD $S" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1839336104090284049) 2024-09-26T16:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "NTM PEG ratios for the cyber security cohort. $CHKP $PANW $FTNT $ZS $CRWD" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1839339543763562599) 2024-09-26T16:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@RichardJKPE @mellowrk_lion Gotcha but HDSN is still similarly positioned to benefit from the same mega trend no Or is it to a lesser extent Sorry for the dimwitted questions HVAC is not in my wheelhouse" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1839377452071825586) 2024-09-26T18:52Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "If robotaxis are the future of ground transportation (which I believe) chances are that every single one will be electric. What would that do to lithium demand 🤔 $LAC" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1839398055050965256) 2024-09-26T20:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "This exercise has inspired me to sell my $CRWD. Feels like the easy money has been made. Not sure what would drive the valuation higher at this point. Will sell at the open" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1839638233853890736) 2024-09-27T12:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Interesting podcast from June with $ELF CMO Kory Marchisotto. I recommend giving it a listen. The company is far more innovative and agile than the industry incumbents $EL and $LRLCY leading to strong market share gains. That said the runway for growth is still long. Also $elfs employees interests and shareholders interests are very well-aligned (everyone owns equity). Stock continues to be pinned sub-$115. Im patiently waiting for $100 before tripling my position to [---] shares. Hard to imagine this does not trade $200 in [----] at some point" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1839716024783958126) 2024-09-27T17:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Any time the $VIX is +10% on the day you should be buying stocks. Its that simple" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1841121369221693930) 2024-10-01T14:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$TSLA musings: oil is +3% today on rumors that an Iranian missile attack on Israel is imminent. Lets humor ourselves and envision a scenario where the attack happens and the price of oil subsequently doubles For the U.S. economy that is a left tail event but for $TSLA it would be right tail for obvious reasons. Also such an event would almost certainly be met with emergency rate cuts and a resumption of QE by the Fed which would also be bullish for $TSLA. $TSLA core auto business is inflecting and now the China stimulus is an added tailwind. 10/10 is around the corner. Energy business" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1841127103988687215) 2024-10-01T14:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "(1/2) Many people will lump $ELF and $CELH in the same bucket as both are consumer products companies that have experienced a slowdown in growth and have share prices 50% below their recent highs. However relative to peers one appears much cheaper than the other" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1841489998270394510) 2024-10-02T14:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "(2/2) On a NTM P/E basis $ELF trades at a modest discount to peers $EL and $LRLCY. (27x vs 30x) In contrast $CELH trades at a premium relative to its peers $MNST $FIZZ $KO $KDP and $PEP. (33x vs 25x) Over the next [--] months Street expectations are for +21% and +0% sales growth for $ELF and $CELH respectively. That said although the charts and story may be similar $ELF appears attractively valued whereas $CELH appears fairly valued at best" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1841494644833525954) 2024-10-02T15:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Rebrand_As_Y Day [---] of owning $MTCH:" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1841916977880957092) 2024-10-03T19:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Strong jobs numbers (+254K vs +150K expected) is bullish for consumer goods companies like $ELF. Personally I dont trust the govt numbers at all but most do which drives sentiment and in turn the earnings multiple. I am pounding the table once again to go long my favorite GARP name (💄gay 🌈 at a reasonable price) $ELF" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1842197866208448743) 2024-10-04T13:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@BottomPhishing $ELF is a bargain at current prices. Its trading at a discount to peers despite above-peer growth. $CELH becomes interesting at $22" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1844000351437123991) 2024-10-09T13:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$ELF is an ESG fund managers wet dream. This commands a premium valuation. Although personally I dont believe racial and gender diversity in and of itself is a necessarily positive thing. $ELF's "board is the only public company board out of [----] that has 78% women and 44% diverse representation" e.l.f. Beauty CEO Tarang Amin says. "We believe diversity is a big driver of our success." Full interview: https://t.co/0KJobAZGko $ELF's "board is the only public company board out of [----] that has 78% women and 44% diverse representation" e.l.f. Beauty CEO Tarang Amin says. "We believe diversity is" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1844003860765167643) 2024-10-09T13:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Sold of out of $CRWD at $282 for +27% and the share price has climbed another 11% since. What keeps driving the valuation higher I dont understand this stock. I swung it before from $150 to $250 but then it kept climbing to $400. Probably should just b&h" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1844384304790741122) 2024-10-10T14:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "4 hour on-board delay followed by cancellation. Better luck tomorrow Fuck I hate $UAL" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1844808490109292871) 2024-10-11T18:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "$ELF is -4% today following weak results by $COTY and its bearish commentary on the sector outlook (well-covered by @Fierce__beast). My take: its all noise and does not impact my thesis. Could $ELF marginally revise guidance downwards when it reports Maybe but thats already priced-in imo. Its still trading at a discount to lower-growth peers. Alternatively If $ELFs market share gains are enough to offset the weaker category sales and guidance holds steady I believe we see a sharp move higher" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1846191094251299199) 2024-10-15T14:07Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "I submitted a request to my compliance department to purchase [---] shares of $HIMS at 8:38am. The request still has not been reviewed lol. Was pretty pissed because its now +10% from where I wouldve bought it ($20.50) but now Im coping by telling myself a guardian angel stopped the trade. I am putting that theory to the test by forgoing a position. Instead I will be buying [---] more $ELF. Will revisit this post later" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1846277263626850424) 2024-10-15T19:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Purchased [--] more $ELF shares at $108 to complete my position. I hold [---] shares at an average cost of $114. My exit strategy is to sell [---] shares at $160 [---] shares at $180 and [--] shares at $200. This translates to a target ROI of 54% with a 6-12 month holding period. My expectation is for shares to re-rate to 40-50x 2025E EPS of $4 which is where my $160-200 target exit range comes from" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1846611394843852987) 2024-10-16T17:57Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Update: I cucked out and bought $HIMS the next day at $22.50. Fuck the guardian angel. My DD on this was minimal at best. All I heard was that its 30x FCF and that the TAM is enormous. Bought it after back-to-back +10% days at 70+ daily RSI like a true n00b. Full degen trade" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1847383449730240721) 2024-10-18T21:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Bears are missing the forest for the trees when citing the slowdown in scanned channel data. International growth is what matters most going forward. 16% of $ELF sales are international versus peers at 60-70%. $ELF just expanded into Germany and Mexico. The runway for growth is long. Although scanned channels have dipped 20% y/y they will be supported by shelf space gains at Walmart (8 ft to [--] ft). Expecting some margin pressure this quarter due to greater ad spend and expansion costs which will turn to a tailwind in 2H25. Shares are very attractive at a discount to lower-growth legacy" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1848332608276492581) 2024-10-21T11:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Me if $TSLA and $ELF go belly up https://t.co/YkLtEaC3OI https://t.co/YkLtEaC3OI" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1848347339217379535) 2024-10-21T12:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Deshaun Watsons season is over. What remarkable consistency he has shown over his tenure in Cleveland. Unheard of at the quarterback position" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1848401080821883150) 2024-10-21T16:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@JustBankStocks @no__bs__ @Aureliusltd28 Yeah theyre building the reserve over time to reflect a greater mix to C&I. Their MF book is bullet proof imo. Check the underwriting. They werent engaged in the same nonsense that NYCB was competing against the agencies" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1848731147087343846) 2024-10-22T14:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@no__bs__ @JustBankStocks @Aureliusltd28 The DSCR metrics are night and day Theres a reason why 19% of NYCBs MF book is rated as substandard/nonaccrual versus DCOM at 2%" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1848736594410225933) 2024-10-22T14:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The DSCR based on current payment terms of course ended up including $7B of I/O loans that were unknown to the market. When stressed for higher renewal rates the DSCRs on the I/Os were 1.0x and 1.25x on the fully amortizing piece. Look at the Flatbush Gardens property (loan-level data given in CLPR 10-Q). You wont find any monstrosities like that in DCOMs book. NYCB changed its credit box to compete with agencies on larger deals while DCOM stuck to its sub-$5M knitting" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1848743629252157541) 2024-10-22T15:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$ELF is getting whacked again today this time in sympathy with $LRLCY whose quarterly results missed expectations and were accompanied by a downwardly revised growth outlook. Sentiment in the category has reached rock bottom levels. If $ELF reports solid results on November [--] as I expect the stage is set for a sharp re-rate higher as the current in-line-with-peer valuation will become completely unjustifiable. Its easy to not appreciate $ELFs market share gains when the market is expanding because everyone is still growing. However their competitive advantages will become much more apparent" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1848771621106119006) 2024-10-22T17:01Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@PeterWuTW That is a very real possibility but I dont think such a dip would last long. Especially with the buyback authorization in place. Unfortunately my position is fully built at an average cost of $114 so I wouldnt be able to take advantage of that dip if it comes" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1848777602607054977) 2024-10-22T17:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@no__bs__ Lets call it Esquire" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1848812738627400071) 2024-10-22T19:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Buy $NVDA What do you do in this situation 😨 https://t.co/3YXwUTW23l What do you do in this situation 😨 https://t.co/3YXwUTW23l" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1848854059232719214) 2024-10-22T22:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@jbulltard1 Robovan will push it beyond $1k" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1849452601869246573) 2024-10-24T14:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Got the significant follow through to an even greater degree than was initially anticipated. Stock climbed all the way to $260 yesterday and has already followed through to $270 so far today. $300 will probably be here by December at this rate. I just dont see why the buying pressure would stop. There are a lot of short positions that need to unwind and a lot of FOMO/MOMO. $TSLA is a no-brainer long for large fund managers given its great liquidity" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1849811317747589396) 2024-10-25T13:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$ELF earnings are scheduled to be released on Wed Nov [--] after the close. Right now the options market is pricing in a 15% move post-release. Thats $127 on the upside or $93 on the downside. Either scenario seems possible for me. The category is out of favor and ELFs 2Q results are likely to be a little noisy so it seems reasonable that it could get punished if results and guidance are just in line. However if ELF is able to post a solid beat and raise in the wake of its competitors misses which I suspect it will given its domestic market share gains and international expansion that would" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1849863022753518045) 2024-10-25T17:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$LAC now +50% from when it popped on my radar. In hindsight this was a no-brainer at $2.70/share. It probably goes much higher too but I dont have the buying power to allocate to it due to other higher conviction ideas. That said you can learn just as valuable lessons from watching trades you passed on play out as you can from watching trades you took. My investing theme is good business with lousy sentiment. Sentiment on Lithium was (still is) at rock-bottom levels despite a secular tailwind which creates opportunity" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1850907627842109640) 2024-10-28T14:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@ruth_capital That was me on $HIMS two weeks ago. Except it was +10% for two consecutive days 😔" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1850916750407192987) 2024-10-28T15:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Rebrand_As_Y The Tesla robotaxi fixes this" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1850980047445799139) 2024-10-28T19:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Triessence seemed like a long shot IHEEZO uptake was slower than expected and the core drugs Fab-5 or whatever theyre called slowed. I sold in Nov [--]. It was obvious that the thesis was back on post-release of results in May [--] but I was too salty to buy it back. Oh well lesson learned" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1851363383398056362) 2024-10-29T20:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Added [---] more $HIMS at $19. Total position is now [---] shares at $21. Its trading at 20x [----] consensus EPS of $0.96 which I assume will be upwardly revised over time. Down big today on GLP-1 revenue miss by $LLY. Sets the stage for a sharp move higher post earnings on Nov. [--] if the results and outlook are favorable which I expect. The prophet @rubicon59 has been all over this one lately" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1851710873456513243) 2024-10-30T19:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$ELF is down again today (-3%) this time in sympathy with peer $EL (-25%) who released poor 1Q results (net sales -5% y/y) that were accompanied by a 50% dividend cut 😮💨 and a withdrawal of its [----] full-year guidance 😲 due to weakness in China $EL guided to 2Q EPS of $0.20-0.35 versus consensus of $1.05 😵 This creates yet another buying opportunity for $ELF who does not sell in China so it will not have to contend with the same headwinds. Additionally it does not sell high-priced products so it actually benefits from consumers trading down in tougher economic times. On Nov. [--] I expect" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1851981103126479265) 2024-10-31T13:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Even after putrid 😷 1Q results that incited a 21% sell-off $EL still trades at a premium (29.8x NTM consensus) to peer $ELF (26.3x NTM consensus) as analyst estimate cuts offset the sharp move down. To that point analysts have slashed their [----] EPS estimate for $EL by 57% YTD versus a 12% YTD raise for $ELF. Ask yourself does it make sense for the industry disruptor that is rapidly growing earnings and gaining market share to trade at the same valuation as legacy incumbents who face significant earnings challenges and are having their lunch eaten on a daily basis I expect a sharp re-rating" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1852327389910401221) 2024-11-01T12:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@ruth_capital @DeItaone @Kalshi Sorry I loaded the boat on Kamala to hedge my $KRE long" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1852342769160774107) 2024-11-01T13:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$ATKR is gapping up above its 50DMA after forming a nice base. Reminds me of the $LAC set up at $2.70/share (now $4.30). I know they are facing a lawsuit but my uneducated opinion is that its just noise. Management are sharp operators. Its a share cannibal that has likely been accumulating shares $100. LT beneficiary of electrification trend and ST beneficiary of lower interest rates. Wish I had the buying power to add here" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1853461205496815741) 2024-11-04T15:36Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Its a big week for my three stock portfolio as $HIMS reports after the close today and $ELF reports on Wednesday after the close. Looks like the options market is pricing in a +/- 15% move for each stock. I expect a positive earnings reaction for $ELF given the depressed valuation and likely better-than-feared results. On $HIMS Im not sure what to expect. I like the story a lot but it makes me nervous how beloved it is on fintwit. That said sometimes cult stocks work out like $TSLA which is coincidentally my largest position" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1853481013160100192) 2024-11-04T16:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$CBNA is soaring +7% ahead of Tuesdays Federal election. The de facto bank of the Republican Party would benefit from a clean sweep on Tuesday as it would support a more constructive near-term deposit outlook. Reported very solid 3Q results last week" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1853494578705490190) 2024-11-04T17:48Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@Fierce__beast @DeepSailCapital I wonder what % of Natarium sales and international sales fall into the 20% e-commerce bucket" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1853549732754497920) 2024-11-04T21:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@bucketshopcap $ELF" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1853817943605338574) 2024-11-05T15:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "I swear to god all of these videos that snowflakes are recording of themselves absolutely melting down post-Trump victory has added [--] years to my lifespan. Crush that shit up and shoot it in my veins" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1854126161095238012) 2024-11-06T11:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Its earnings day for $ELF Im actually surprised to see that its up marginally in pre-market given Trumps victory and the Chinese tariff implications. In my opinion its a non-concern for $ELF given its 70% gross margins and ability to pass on higher costs to consumers due to lower price point but I know that its a common bear argument. The options market is pricing in a +- 14% move post-release which is as 4:30 pm ET. Here are the 2Q consensus bogeys: Revenue - $289.4M EPS - $0.43 Gross margin - 70.9% Net margin - 8.7% A couple of thoughts: Marketing spend will be elevated on a y/y basis as" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1854151694243745795) 2024-11-06T13:19Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "I doubt it. Still too expensive relative to peers given the muted growth outlook. Further estimate cuts are likely given the miss. They can blame supply chain optimization all they want but reality is the stock will be dead money at best till they can prove the growth story isnt dead which will take time" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1854159806275215679) 2024-11-06T13:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$HIMS is surging +19% today following the Trump victory as impotence soars across the liberal cohort which should stimulate the boner-pill TAM. In all seriousness not sure whats driving the relative outperformance today. Does $HIMS somehow benefit from Trump Saw this interesting take from @BlueDuckCap RFKJr will get a chance to re-shape and rebuild health care in this country. He's been supportive of certain treatments like Peptides. This could open up entirely new verticals for platforms like $HIMS. https://t.co/PrAAKZsRd2 RFKJr will get a chance to re-shape and rebuild health care in this" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1854183854287790263) 2024-11-06T15:27Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "$HIMS is surging +19% today following the Trump victory as impotence soars across the liberal cohort which should stimulate the boner-pill TAM. In all seriousness not sure whats driving the relative outperformance today. Does $HIMS somehow benefit from Trump Saw this interesting take from @BlueDuckCap 👇 RFKJr will get a chance to re-shape and rebuild health care in this country. He's been supportive of certain treatments like Peptides. This could open up entirely new verticals for platforms like $HIMS. https://t.co/PrAAKZsRd2 RFKJr will get a chance to re-shape and rebuild health care in" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1854184404865950046) 2024-11-06T15:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$ELF reported another solid beat and raise in 2Q differentiating itself from legacy peers $EL and $LRLCY who reported weak 2Q results which highlights the absurdity of the in line valuation. $ELF initially surged +19% in AH to $124 but has settled at +11% in pre-market. Based on the results I would expect an almost immediate re-rating to 35x NTM consensus EPS of [----] a 5-10 turn premium to legacy peers which translates to a share price of $130. My [--] key takeaways: 1) Tariff concerns appear to be overblown as $ELF is well-equipped to pass COGS increases off on channel partners and" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1854516405283983568) 2024-11-07T13:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$TSLA has surged +23% since Trumps victory and now trades at 91x NTM consensus EPS. The Trump victory turns $TSLAs political risk headwind into a tailwind and also improves the regulatory outlook for FSD which supports the upwards revaluation. I believe sentiment on the stock is now moderately bullish versus highly pessimistic when I entered at $177/share. That said I believe there is further upside for multiple expansion over time probably enough to support a $325-350 share price in the near term. Then I believe that share price growth will need to be driven by EPS growth which will be" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1854563325868466362) 2024-11-07T16:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Been a $HIMS shareholder for a couple weeks now and have been following the stock closely on fintwit since. I must say I dont think Ive ever seen a bigger bunch of financially illiterate retards than the $HIMS cult. Actually the $SOFI cult might be worse but there is a lot of overlap there. For example: $60M of the $79M of FCF generation last quarter was from a one-off tax event but that didnt stop this guy 👇 from annualizing it slapping another 10% on top of that and projecting it for [----] 😭 thousands of followers 😂 Bullish on $HIMS but lying in bed with a bunch of useful idiots makes me" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1854862395115503628) 2024-11-08T12:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Aureliusltd28 I think $VLY rips off this 📈" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1854887319821508891) 2024-11-08T14:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "I hear a Shitco rally is afoot. Time to dig up the [----] cadavers. I like big bases and I cannot lie. Who else remembers this [----] gem 👇😭 https://youtu.be/E_YIZyVzymAsi=rW7x5FYtZ8PMjNN0 https://youtu.be/E_YIZyVzymAsi=rW7x5FYtZ8PMjNN0" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1854951045081817363) 2024-11-08T18:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@SixSigmaCapital $ELF" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1855311621440360919) 2024-11-09T18:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "The #Bucs are the best 4-6 team Ive ever seen. Im calling it nowthey finish the year 10-7 and make the playoffs. Getting on the bandwagon now is like buying LEAPS on $NVDA in late-2022. Will revisit this at season end" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1855732810528465053) 2024-11-10T22:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Another downright pornographic day for my 3-stock portfolio. Pushing +70% YTD now. $TSLA $ELF $HIMS" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1855984372790284523) 2024-11-11T14:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$HIMS is soaring +17% today to a fresh ATH. No overhead resistance and still cheap at 23x consensus [----] EPS of $1.18 which is +23% from the prior [----] consensus estimate of $0.96 before the release of 3Q results last week. Why couldnt it re-rate to 50x given the growth profile Also a more favorable regulatory outlook with DJT and RFK at the helm. And what if estimates go up to $1.50/share 50x1.5=$75" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1855987234085740757) 2024-11-11T14:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$HIMS has been absolutely blasted -35% since $AMZN announced its direct competitor yesterday. I actually tend to agree with the mostly delusional $HIMS bulls who view the news as a bullish validation of the business model and TAM rather than as an existential threat to $HIMS. I get $AMZN has distribution and economies of scale to their advantage but theyve been playing in the sandbox for a long time without gaining traction. Also their foray into music and video didnt kill $SPOT or $NFLX for example so its not as easy as you might think. $HIMS is trading at 17x [----] consensus EPS of $1.18." [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1857462081299353707) 2024-11-15T16:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Putting my money where my mouth is. First sports bet since college. I have 90% confidence in [---] wins and 50% confidence in a playoff berth assuming Mayfield stays healthy. Worst case scenario is +$50 in my view. I am a savant when it comes to this team" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1858223146882478449) 2024-11-17T18:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Well $HIMS closed below the [--] DMA for the first time since late-September. Historically that has been a reliable indicator that the stock will underperform in the short-term (1-3 months). However the stock is slightly above the [--] DMA of $19.86 in pre-market so if it is able to decisively close back above $20/share we would have a false breakdown which I would view as very bullish. That said if the stock reverses its pre-market gains and closes red on the day those with a shorter term view should probably seek greener pastures elsewhere in the near-term" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1858517869308375397) 2024-11-18T14:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Downright mouthwatering setup on $ATKR as the [--] DMA has transitioned its gender from resistance to support. If the stock is able bounce nicely following a *kiss* of the [--] DMA its clear skies to $130/share. Im already levered to the hilt so I cant participate in this one but just sharing for the benefit of my only fans bot followers ❤" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1858549596407906559) 2024-11-18T16:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "The pump is real and there is no end in sight barring a black swan. Probably will swap [---] $ELF for [---] more $SQ. Gotta trade the market in front of you. JUST IN: VanEck officially endorses President-elect Trump's plan to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve. JUST IN: VanEck officially endorses President-elect Trump's plan to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1858974562811343219) 2024-11-19T20:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$SQ added [---] shares this morning. Block sits at the intersection of crypto and fintech which will likely be hot sectors throughout the Trump presidency. The chart looks great and the valuation is reasonable at 21.4x NTM EPS. Also Dorsey is buddies with Musk who is basically the President. All signs point towards significant multiple expansion in the coming months in my opinion" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1859247470972125359) 2024-11-20T14:48Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "$ELF is -9% following the below short report by @muddywatersre. I havent parsed it yet but the negative sentiment it brings is enough to get me out of the rest of my position for now. My guess is that this is dead money till next ER. Luckily I sold most this morning at $120 but I dumped the last [---] at $112. Ended up +2% on the trade. Will look to reenter closer to 3Q earnings. MW is short $ELF. We believe it's overstating revenue profits inventory. 80% of its product is imported. Import data show [--] quarters ago ELFs imports crashed by 2/3 & havent recovered yet sales in the US have defied" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1859278129514086883) 2024-11-20T16:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$SQ ring me up for [---] more. Only thing that makes me nervous about this play is that every chartist on X is bullish on this stock lol" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1859279889142071737) 2024-11-20T16:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$TSLA reached the expected $325-350 range and has been flagging for the last couple weeks. I wouldve sold CCs when it hit $350 as outlined in my prior post but I have a 30-day minimum holding period mandate so I chickened out. The price action is bullish in my view and is supportive of a continuation higher. I revoke my prior statement that the next move higher will need to be supported by earnings growth. I think the valuation could get much frothier. Im holding for $500" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1859306121552371937) 2024-11-20T18:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Incredible recovery by $ELF which was down as much as 14% at the lows following the short report by @muddywatersre. Pretty easy to poke holes in that report which is probably why the stock rebounded so sharply despite no management rebuttal yet. I kinda feel like a pussy for paper handing my last [---] shares at [---] but I already had one foot out the door because price action was pretty shitty post-ER and Ive had a hard on for $SQ. Still made a little money on the trade (in at [---] out at 116) but Im hoping $ELF remains under pressure for the next month or two so that I can re-enter ahead of 3Q" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1859591119064977772) 2024-11-21T13:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Not exactly. $POWL is a specialized provider of custom electrical solutions and automation systems while $ATKR focuses on mass-produced electrical infrastructure components used in construction and power distribution. $POWL operates in a more bespoke project-oriented environment (lots of data center demand right now) while $ATKR is more about large-scale high-volume manufacturing and distribution" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1860433231838879933) 2024-11-23T21:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Finally took some time to actually consider how $HIMS should be valued. Telehealth peers trade at 1x NTM sales versus $HIMS at 2.8x because they all hemorrhage cash are loaded with debt and/or have no top line growth. Needless to say not a great proxy for $HIMS. Then you have your drug manufacturers like $LLY and $NVO with similar gross margin profiles to $HIMS but lower growth trading at 10-12x NTM sales. I view the higher net margins and lower growth rates of the manufacturers as roughly offsetting factors when comparing to $HIMS but not great proxies either. $HIMS is a unique animal and" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1861057647086063779) 2024-11-25T14:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Perhaps unsurprisingly $SQ is weak today as all of fintwit has become bullish on the stock and chart after a 50% run up since August. I dont think Ive ever seen a chart posted as much as $SQ. Also the Bitcoin correction today isnt helping. $SQ will probably need to consolidate recent gains for a while so eyes will come off it before it can resume the uptrend but I remain bullish on the longer-term prospects" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1861069151432806513) 2024-11-25T15:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "So you want to play the expected LNG boom Look no further than $GIFI. $113M MC $65M cash just $18M of low-yielding debt. Profitable. New management is sharp and has completely turned around the business. It is well-positioned to drive significant operating leverage in a LNG upcycle. A strong candidate for earnings growth and multiple expansion. Multi-bagger potential. 📈" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1861071091537457340) 2024-11-25T15:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$HIMS is now +21% today and just took out its previous ATH of $30.42. Nothing but empty space above and a massive base built out. I think this one trades up to the $40s in short order" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1861132367676522957) 2024-11-25T19:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$HIMS is set up for an $APP-like re-rating in the coming months in my view. Reiterate $75 PT" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1861440952696455178) 2024-11-26T16:04Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "20x sales is crazy but 10x isnt versus 3x today. If the multiple holds at 3x then $HIMS will need to grow revenue by 15x in [--] years to reach your $100B valuation target. Thats a 10-yr CAGR of 30%. Possible but unlikely. There will be multiple expansion from here no doubt about it. Finally took some time to actually consider how $HIMS should be valued. Telehealth peers trade at 1x NTM sales versus $HIMS at 2.8x because they all hemorrhage cash are loaded with debt and/or have no top line growth. Needless to say not a great proxy for $HIMS. Then you https://t.co/JPQ4NPUVzC Finally took some" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1861473047573864734) 2024-11-26T18:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$HIMS buy the stock and you wont need the pills" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1861481914898567407) 2024-11-26T18:47Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "The great re-rating is upon us. $75/share is destiny. Smell ya later bears 🐻 $HIMS" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1861781416150724749) 2024-11-27T14:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@PurpleDrink_LLC Swing $HIMS to $50 and call it a year" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1861782583639478557) 2024-11-27T14:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Stocks tend to re-rate quickly once the market figures it out. $AMZN competitor sell-off was the the final shake of the tree to lose some retail before institutions let it run. $HIMS is in for an $APP-like rerating in the coming months. A lot of meat is left on this bone. See you at 7-8x sales which equals $75-85/share ✌" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1861787177497051351) 2024-11-27T15:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "lol Epic egg on face 15% reversal. Im not looking the gift horse in the mouth. Submitted a request to compliance to buy more. I doubt it gets approved because theyre all probably gone for Thanksgiving but well see lol $HIMS" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1861813266428653830) 2024-11-27T16:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$SQ is +5% today as Bernstein named Block as its best idea for [----]. Nice to see The Street highlight the 3nm chip. Im sure institutions have been accumulating shares for months. Would like to see a close over $94 today to signal that the rally is on. The valuation is cheap and there are several potential catalysts to re-rate in [----]. Also Dorseys value cannot be understated given new administration. The share price could double in [----] in my view. Bernstein: "Block (SQ) is our new best idea.We see under-appreciated long-term optionality from Bitcoin mining where SQ appears to be unique (in" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1863638755703193806) 2024-12-02T17:37Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "At $SHAK in NYC enjoying a mid burger fries and water bottle for a robust $25. Short-worthy value imo but the place is packed. What am I missing here" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1863680549652488671) 2024-12-02T20:24Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "I expect index returns will continue to get better and better on average each year. Right now the hurdle is 20-30%. Id imagine the hurdle will be 30-40% in a few years time but thats just me sticking my finger in the wind. $SPY $QQQ" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1863929519867887945) 2024-12-03T12:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$HIMS has been in a bullish but volatile consolidation pattern since setting a new ATH last week. The stock prints 10% candles every day it seems. The previous ATH of $30.42 has turned into a strong area of support which I view very positively. Seems primed and ready for the next leg up into the $40-50 range. The fundamental and technical outlooks are both positively aligned. Reiterate $75 PT" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1863967080157949993) 2024-12-03T15:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "I never understood why anyone would buy $MSTRs 0% convertible debt issuances or why the stock trades at such a premium to its current $BTC holdings but now it makes sense (see attached clip from @fundstrat) There is $50T of outstanding corporate bond issuances today globally. If just 1% of that money wants $BTC exposure thats $500B of potential demand for $MSTRs bond issuances and in turn $BTC. What happens if that number goes to 5% $2.5T of incremental demand Seems like shit could get crazy. $BTC and $MSTR current market caps are $2T and $76B respectively. $MSTR currently holds $40B of" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1864166147593003104) 2024-12-04T04:33Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Well I guess $MSTR and $MARA are going to just be psychological longs for me. Apparently on the Enterprise Restricted List 😭" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1864309265067819102) 2024-12-04T14:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Is $MNMD a no-brainer with RFK at the helm of HHS Shroom to run imo. Lmao this fucking guy is incredible https://t.co/MESBqZXftb Lmao this fucking guy is incredible https://t.co/MESBqZXftb" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1864396904932512089) 2024-12-04T19:50Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Previous ATH (split-adjusted) is $67 but the share count is up 3x since then so a $20 share price would match its previous ATH valuation of $1.5B. I know nothing of the merits of the business just that its a shroom play. Someone smarter than me who grasps the fundamentals please reply $MNMD" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1864406651664511470) 2024-12-04T20:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Jedi_ant God I hope this is a hedge lol" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1864410181284565241) 2024-12-04T20:43Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Milestone post gents. Havent shared this before but I had about this same size account back in [----]. I proceeded to blow it up to $30K by mid-2022 by ironically full-porting $NVDA to the heavy margin in the mid-20s (split-adjusted). I must be one of the few people that can say I went broke owning $NVDA lmao. I often wonder what couldve been as my position would now be worth over $700K if I didnt get margin called. Oh well. Anyways took a year off from trading the PA and just saved money because I was demoralized. Just focused on getting the CFA and my day job. Started to trade the PA again in" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1864423871329522065) 2024-12-04T21:37Z [----] followers, 12.4K engagements "$MSTR is now +12% from where I wish I couldve bought it (F U compliance) but this is still in the very early innings in my view. I bet that the size of the convertible issuances will increase exponentially from here. $5B then $10B then $25B then $100B. $MSTR could easily 3-5x from here in my view. There is potentially an extremely long runway for $BTC demand through debt markets which bodes well for $MSTR balance sheet growth. Obviously a high-risk investment but the risk/return profile seems very attractive to me" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1864690011200757900) 2024-12-05T15:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "If robotaxis become a thing the average American will have an extra [---] hours per year to waste. What will they do while in the robotaxis Probably watch movies shop and social media. Bullish for $NFLX $AMZN and $META BREAKING: $TSLA LEAD ENGINEER SAYS ROBOTAXI WILL HAVE 50% FEWER PARTS THAN MODEL [--] 👀 Cost savings will be insane https://t.co/wUjB2RZd7i BREAKING: $TSLA LEAD ENGINEER SAYS ROBOTAXI WILL HAVE 50% FEWER PARTS THAN MODEL [--] 👀 Cost savings will be insane https://t.co/wUjB2RZd7i" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1864811368039207403) 2024-12-05T23:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@LukeWolgram $HIMS $SQ $TSLA" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1865000441139921322) 2024-12-06T11:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Founder-led companies breaking out of big bases. My favorite. $TSLA $HIMS $SQ" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1865122367028039793) 2024-12-06T19:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Bond managers have had their teeth kicked in for [--] years straight. Bonds down almost every single day. If you were them wouldnt you be licking your chops at the opportunity for some $BTC exposure I estimate that there is at least $1T of demand on the sidelines right now for 0% coupon convertible notes that would be used to buy $BTC. $MSTR probably going to the 🌕🚀. Why mine bitcoin when you can just buy it Work smarter not harder. Well-played Saylor. I never understood why anyone would buy $MSTRs 0% convertible debt issuances or why the stock trades at such a premium to its current $BTC" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1865382587645997341) 2024-12-07T13:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "911 whats your emergency $INDB" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1866104701034336611) 2024-12-09T12:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$TSLA is down a smidge today despite rumors that the long-anticipated $25-30K new model to be launched in 1H25 will be the Model Q which is a smaller Model [--] with a hatchback. Its release should help Tesla reach Musks 20-30% y/y volume growth hurdle in [----] versus current Street expectations of 15%. [----] looks like it will be a strong year for $TSLA stock supported by upwards analysts EPS revisions the rollout of FSD and continued progress with Optimus. I expect $TSLA will reach a valuation of 2.0-2.5T by YE25 which portends a share price of $650-750. Take the midpoint my PT is $700🚀 Weve" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1866177989366731030) 2024-12-09T17:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "The market has been on a parabolic trajectory since QE. Dont overthink it gents. All dips must be bought. Things will only accelerate from here. Reckless fiscal and monetary policy is creating a two-tier society. Those who own real and financial assets will be the ruling class. Those who dont are destined for serfdom. Do it for the bloodline 🫡 $SPY $QQQ" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1866459987809087660) 2024-12-10T12:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "I have $HIMS at 3x 2026E sales of $2.3B as of today. Personally I think it should trade 7-8x based on todays merits. Maybe even 10-12x in a year or two if they can continue to scale FCF. Buy side bears are dubious of $HIMS ability to scale FCF over time given there is no moat. Therein lies the opportunity. Thats why they trade at just 3x sales. Buy siders can be wrong too and I think they are in this case but management will need to prove that over time to get the multiple to re-rate to an appropriate level" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1866500720523903177) 2024-12-10T15:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$BTC is selling off but $MSTR is up Listen closely smooth brains. The price of bitcoin is not the primary driver of this stock. Obviously look at the 2x premium to NAV. I think yields are the primary driver. As yields rise bond prices fall which pressures fixed income managers. This pressure has only gotten greater given phenomenal equity market returns in recent years. As a result fixed income managers are looking for creative ways to generate a better return and in turn save their jobs. Enter 0% convertible $MSTR bonds. The potential for $MSTR share price appreciation via convertible debt" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1866561406390174191) 2024-12-10T19:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Finally took my $HIMS DD beyond just back of the envelope. Recent price action dictated it. The Street is modeling a significant deceleration in revenue growth from +67% in [----] to just +16% in [----]. To me that seems unlikely given the significant existing TAM as well as TAM expansion opportunities through new product verticals. The Street is modeling an adjusted EBITDA margin of just 15% in [----] whereas $HIMS has guided to 20%. I will take management at their word on this as they have a proven track record of meeting and exceeding its guidance. That said my revenue and adjusted EBITDA" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1866872200973713767) 2024-12-11T15:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Pretty sure that $694.20 is now coded gents. I dont make the rules. $TSLA $TSLA @elonmusk https://t.co/NgJyr0m2AS $TSLA @elonmusk https://t.co/NgJyr0m2AS" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1867000171600511012) 2024-12-12T00:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@TheSonOfWalkley It cost me over $100 to $UBER from LaGuardia airport to my hotel in NYC [--] miles away. Imagine how cheap it will be when you can take a robotaxi 😎" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1867264978564403652) 2024-12-12T17:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Our head of macro is circulating a chart that depicts forward annual equity returns since [----] based on the starting unemployment rate and TTM P/E. Curious I asked him how he accounted for changes in the unemployment rate methodology over time. He said that he didnt. Lol. If you do the conclusion goes from starkly bearish to bullish. He probably makes $750K-1M/yr" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1867280496364834942) 2024-12-12T18:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "My top picks for 2025: 1) $TSLA 2) $HIMS 3) $MSTR 4) $SQ in that order" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1867582075462709310) 2024-12-13T14:47Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "$HIMS and $SQ sucked bigly this week but $TSLA +9% was more than enough to offset. Looking at the charts Im guessing that $TSLA flags out next week while EMAs catch up. $SQ looks ripe for a bounce or at least consolidation along the [--] day EMA. Similarly for $HIMS the [--] day EMA has been nice support expecting a bounce next week" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1867690619969122443) 2024-12-13T21:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Checking in on the quantum names: $IONQ looks to have the most short-term upside potential of the group. Nice close above the [--] day EMA on Friday. It could be setting up for another run here as the set-up looks similar to early Novembers bounce off the [--] day EMA. $RGTI looks the most stretched of the group as its well above its EMAs and likely to pullback in my view. I wouldnt chase here. $QUBT has been the laggard of the group the [--] day EMA was tough resistance last week. Bulls need a bounce today and might want to set a stop loss at $5.80 if it starts to break down. $QBTS looks ready for a" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1868634863739277821) 2024-12-16T12:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The ascent continues. Was wrong about $TSLA" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1868722923386945551) 2024-12-16T18:20Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "$HIMS is up a bit this morning following Morgan Stanleys IoC at overweight with a $42 PT. The sell side is so far offsides on this name that its not even funny. Consensus PT is $27 or 15% lower than the current price. Laughable. Theres a major potential catalyst for a move higher with the FDA decision later this week. If the decision is positive $HIMS will likely surge to $40 in my view and then these WS analysts will be tripping over themselves to raise their PTs. All analyst estimates are too low. Theyre not paying attention to this name. For now. Therein lies the opportunity for" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1869033627553587408) 2024-12-17T14:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "4 charts on my radar: 1) $TTD - broke out of a 2-week pennant yesterday on the highest volume in [--] weeks. Strong bounce off the [--] day EMA. Looks like it wants to retest $140. 2) $MGNI - descending triangle with the [--] day EMA as support. Im optimistic this resolves upwards given the $TTD breakout yesterday. 3) $SQ - popped out of the falling wedge and closed just above the [--] day EMA yesterday. Looks ripe for a continuation to $100. 4) $HIMS - successfully held the [--] day EMA and regained the [--] day EMA following the recent ATH. Looks poised to re-test ATHs. FDA decision tomorrow is a major" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1869390843179569515) 2024-12-18T14:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Ad tech looks ready to rip $TTD $MGNI $PUBM" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1869414748804292881) 2024-12-18T16:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$SPY is flat the last [---] weeks. Face ripper rally coming post-FOMC. Book it" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1869443010989371404) 2024-12-18T18:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$HIMS is -12% today following the FDAs decision to remove Tirzepatide from the shortage list. $HIMS currently sells a compounded version of semaglutide which is another obesity drug. The read through is that semaglutide will also come off shortage soon which will be a headwind to $HIMS revenue growth. This FDA decision has been an overhang on the stock for a long time. I view this clearing event as bullish for the stock over the long-term despite the suboptimal outcome in the short-term. Investor focus and the narrative will now be shifted towards the many positives. I would not be surprised" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1869753675171627122) 2024-12-19T14:36Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "$HIMS gap closed ✅ negative catalyst removed ✅ strong bounce off the lows ✅ Green close otw" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1869756049374552423) 2024-12-19T14:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Brutal 15% DD in the port over the last two days. Looks like pain will continue today based on pre-market action but maybe we get the fabled red to green move. Still +91% YTD but itll probably take a few months to reclaim the high water mark. Bond market vigilantes are starting to make me sweat a little but I think that theyre wrong. My contrarian take is that DJT will be relatively deflationary but there is a long time between now and when that can be proven so who knows if markets crash before then. Kind of funny how rate cuts have arguably been a net negative so far for everyone but the" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1870057730498531414) 2024-12-20T10:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@EvanWhitten10 Indeed it was. Now not so much. Still confident on the fundamental outlook though. $HIMS getting whacked on the FDA decision yesterday added insult to injury but was a much-needed clearing event imo. All eyes on PCE in [--] hours" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1870071604274659644) 2024-12-20T11:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@paulcerro @Aktiediplomaten $HIMS will probably acquire branded drugs in the future for low upfront payments + milestones given its distribution. Lots of high-quality branded drugs never gain traction due to distribution challenges" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1870077520923488543) 2024-12-20T12:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Outperforming the market in [----] is probably as simple as just buying all of the newly-anointed market leaders post-Trump re-election on this pullback. $TSLA $RDDT $SQ $PLTR $COIN $MSTR $HOOD $KRE" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1870096255810187393) 2024-12-20T13:17Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Contrarian take: the bond market breakdown following the CPI release was a massive bear trap and bonds have bottomed. 🤷🏼♂" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1870107131007164562) 2024-12-20T14:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$FDS is down today following earnings but they hosted a bullish investor day not long ago with encouraging product updates related to AI. Chart looks coiled. [--] year base" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1870137956737945640) 2024-12-20T16:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Yield curve is starting to resemble the ol pecker again. Boolish" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1870179989955453235) 2024-12-20T18:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@stocktalkweekly Stonks moar higher. Up" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1870181160510247268) 2024-12-20T18:55Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "What if the impact of AGI is tantamount to the last [---] years of technological advancement As in what if in [----] we are looking at [----] like we look at [----] today. Moores law Pay attention to whats happening: Quantum stocks are ripping and exhibiting relative strength in a market drawdown. Google recently unveiled Willow a breakthrough in quantum processing. OpenAIs models have improved by 10x in [--] months. O-3. What could this portend AGI makes a significant part of the workforce obsolete maybe the majority. Financial assets soar driven by improved profitability which supports earnings growth" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1870816807780540492) 2024-12-22T13:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$SQ is sitting right on the neckline of this inverse H&S retesting the breakout. EMAs have started to catch up and it looks primed for the next leg higher. Im flat as a pancake on my position. Liquid founder-led and reasonably valued + a crypto angle. Fintech sector should be hot in [----]. The setup looks a lot like $TSLA in early August. However if $SQ gives up the [--] DMA at $84 its probably back to the chop shop for a while and Id probably sell" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1871189690574946700) 2024-12-23T13:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "One of the three seats in my portfolio has been reassigned. The new attendee will be announced in due time. Grid play. ⚡" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1871527154816897134) 2024-12-24T12:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Managing investments is like managing a garden. Initiating positions is like planting seeds. First things first you need to give them time to grow. Dont constantly trade in and out of positions. Leave that to the algos. Less is more. Invest on monthly or annual time frames. Thats where you can have an edge. Once the seeds sprout to either a flower (+20%) or weed (-20%) its time to water (add) or prune (sell). Dont fall in love with a weed as weeds dont often turn to flowers. Harvest when times are good and plant more seeds and add more water when times are bad. Dont overthink it" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1873346224109101121) 2024-12-29T12:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "2024 YTD ETF AUM changes: Equity AUM growth lagging market growth by 15%. Sell-off coming Fixed income AUM growth far outpacing flattish YTD bonds. Bounce coming Currency AUM surged from launch of Bitcoin ETFs. Commodities AUM basically flat as gold ETFs surged while money flowed out of energy" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1873744417955193107) 2024-12-30T14:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Sure the 5YUST is +100 bp since the FFR [----] bp but banks can concede some spread now that theres upwards slope to the yield curve so credit demand in [----] should be strong especially given the improved business optimism. Good for economic growth. Simultaneously the US annual deficit should decrease with lower interest payments which should further ease inflationary pressures and lead to additional cuts in [----]. Meanwhile tariffs will reduce domestic consumption and increase tax revenues that will be used to pay down high-cost debt or stimulate domestic production both of which would be" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1873759663583297925) 2024-12-30T15:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@himshouse The glp-1 nonsense is the only reason we can still buy shares at $25 instead of $40" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1873807521603084538) 2024-12-30T19:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@blondesnmoney 😂" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1874846263709192556) 2025-01-02T15:52Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "More $HIMS GLP-1 thoughts: 1) its a small portion of total revenue but was a significant contributor to FCF last Q given the higher margins relative to its other product offerings. The Street is dubious of $HIMS ability to generate FCF without GLPs. ARPU was flat at $50-55 for [--] years then jumped to $67 last quarter. 2) $HIMS can still sell compounded GLP-1 through the 503a exception after the semaglutide shortage ends. $HIMS expects to bring Liraglutide the first generic GLP-1 to market in [----] and already has a confirmed supplier. More than 1M of $HIMS subscribers currently utilize" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1874861502785638768) 2025-01-02T16:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "If the lord gives me the strength to hodl my positions and not execute a single trade in [----] I just know my return will be 1xx% $TSLA $HIMS $AMSC" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1874864729384276293) 2025-01-02T17:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "The universe is now in balance $HIMS $AMSC" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1874882974782775627) 2025-01-02T18:18Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "The adults are back in charge" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1875279493772013612) 2025-01-03T20:34Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Ezpz. Cash me out #gobucs 💰" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1876254644688900326) 2025-01-06T13:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "The bull is awakening. Still pretty much no one on X talking about this one but they will be once it breaks $40 $AMSC" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1876300145870184618) 2025-01-06T16:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Aktiediplomaten @OpenAI For context WS expectations are for revenue of $469.7M and $HIMS guided range is $465-470M. $HIMS exceeded its guidance in the prior two quarters and fell within the range the three quarters preceding that" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1876643171964514628) 2025-01-07T14:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Me watching the $TSLA daily chart right after telling myself that my invested capital is long duration" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1876660108358500719) 2025-01-07T16:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Rising bond yields havent been bad for equities this time because the major indices are driven disproportionately by MAG7 which is the modern day safe haven asset. Once inflation expectations moderate money should flow out of MAG7 into other equities. Breadth should return as indices tread water" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1876673066064805941) 2025-01-07T16:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@blondesnmoney Investors are the most underweight bonds that they have ever been at the precipice of the most deflationary technological advancement in human history lol" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1876690761955074445) 2025-01-07T18:01Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "What fast food has the longest half life This hour-old $MCD is damn near inedible" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1876733129156637121) 2025-01-07T20:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$AMSC sitting right below the [--] [--] and [--] day EMA cluster from $27.07-27.58. Lets see if it can regain this key support level before the close. Irrelevant to the LT thesis but would bode well for the ST outlook" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1877021256081392098) 2025-01-08T15:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$HIMS has a freakishly similar setup. Launch pads 🚀" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1877026186653516237) 2025-01-08T16:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@himshouse Source This is what I get when I pull consensus estimates from Visible Alpha" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1877063865839599973) 2025-01-08T18:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$HIMS implied that it has [-----] GLP-1 subscribers as of 3Q24. $HIMS also shared that the average starting price point for GLP-1s is $199/mo. 3Q24 GLP-1 sales contribution: [-----] x $199 x [--] =$28.7M $HIMS 3Q revenue $401.6M GLP contribution: 7.1% Even if you take average cost to $250/mo its 10% of sales. Consensus WS estimate is for $469.7M of revenue in 4Q. If 25% of that is expected to be driven by GLP-1 as you say that would imply consensus GLP revenue of $117.4M or 300-400% growth q/q. Not likely. The GLP-1 issue is much more of a FCF headwind than a revenue headwind" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1877114714226044964) 2025-01-08T22:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Wow so the average COGS for an order is $150-250 That seems high. I thought that was the retailers AOV. It implies that the retailers AOV is $300-500 if I assume a 50% GM. Does that sound right Im not sure. $HIMS AOV is $150 for example with 80% GMs ($30 COGS/order). However it makes sense because taking 20-30% of sales did sound steep. Lets say their retail partners get 1.3M orders in [----] with AOV of $150. Lets also assume they have a 50% GM before HYDTF adds its cut. Thats COGS of $97.5M. HYDTF adds on their 30% thats $29.3M from 1.3M orders. Does that sounds right Also how would an end to" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1877743730666475907) 2025-01-10T15:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Easy buys $ELF $OSCR" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1878857424247140486) 2025-01-13T17:31Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Healthcare providers have bucked a weak tape posting strong YTD gains. $IHF Often times the best performers to start the year wind up as the best performers for the full year. The sector did will under the last Trump presidency and has been flat for the last [--] years. $OSCR is my favorite pick of the bunch at 6.6x/5.0x the [----] base/bull case EPS estimates. It should trade at 12-15x in my view" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1879309955989401935) 2025-01-14T23:29Z [----] followers, 21.9K engagements "Just gonna leave this here sector is trading [--] turns below their 5-yr medians and [--] turns below their 10-yr medians. $ELV $CNC $HON $OSCR" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1879553082532782539) 2025-01-15T15:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Damn Jerry Rice put up [----] yds and [--] TD when he was [--] years old in [----] Crazy" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1879842575793938939) 2025-01-16T10:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$UNH posted an ugly EPS beat this morning mostly due to a lower tax rate. Slight top line miss. Although Optum insight beat nicely which may have positive read throughs for Oscar+ at $OSCR. UNH -4% in pre-market. Will likely drag down the rest of the sector $IHF Ill be keeping a close eye on $OSCR. Yesterday it closed above the 50DMA for the first time in 6-weeks. Will bulls step up to defend the breakout after the morning sell-off" [X Link](https://x.com/convexititties/status/1879895706741133620) 2025-01-16T14:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@convexititties Convexititties, CFA
Convexititties, CFA posts on X about $snbr, $hydtf, $oscr, $tsla the most. They currently have [---------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Engagements: [-----] #
- [--] Week [------] -37%
- [--] Month [-------] +236%
- [--] Months [-------] +2.20%
- [--] Year [---------] +305%
Mentions: [--] #
- [--] Month [--] -18%
- [--] Months [---] -11%
- [--] Year [---] +59%
Followers: [---------] #
- [--] Week [-----] +1%
- [--] Month [-----] +5.30%
- [--] Months [-----] +33%
- [--] Year [-----] +243%
CreatorRank: [-------] #
Social Influence
Social category influence finance stocks cryptocurrencies technology brands automotive brands countries celebrities us election travel destinations social networks
Social topic influence $snbr, $hydtf, $oscr, $tsla, stocks #2868, bullish, debt, $hims, $nursv, $opad
Top assets mentioned Oscar Health, Inc. (OSCR) Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (HIMS) Mog Coin (MOG) aelf (ELF) Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) Opendoor Technologies Inc Common Stock (OPEN) Bitcoin (BTC) Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) Somnigroup International Inc. (SGI) NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) Celsius Holdings, Inc. Common Stock (CELH) Centene Corp (CNC) CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA) Ethereum (ETH) American Superconductor Corp (AMSC) Atkore Inc. (ATKR) Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) SPDR S&P [---] ETF Trust (SPY)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"If transportation and delivery go autonomous how will $UBER make money I understand that the current narrative is that Uber is bullishly leaning into autonomy by forming partnerships with autonomous fleet operators like Waymo which sounds great at the surface. However why does Waymo or any other autonomous fleet operator need Uber The only argument Ive heard consistently is that because Uber already has millions of users. While this may have been extremely valuable in years past it has never been easier to rapidly scale users when you have a highly desirable product. We saw ChatGPT scale from"
X Link 2025-07-10T08:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@tradedollarnut Is $AMR a buy"
X Link 2024-03-15T03:58Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@EdwardDiGi Quite the opposite. They raised prices 20% and didnt see any drop off in demand. Customers are saying they will pay literally any price"
X Link 2024-04-10T11:06Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@KingKong9888 @DonaldW60852684 Why do these countries keep telegraphing their attacks lol Isnt the art of surprise military 101"
X Link 2024-04-14T18:07Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@InvestRoiss $META went like 5x after its layoffs"
X Link 2024-04-15T08:48Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@blondesnmoney Better close the $TSLA short 🙂"
X Link 2024-04-22T18:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$TSLA +12% to [---] in pre-market on China FSD news. My $172 avg cost position is now solidly in the green. The extreme disdain many have for Tesla is an interesting psychological phenomena. My suspicion is much of it has to do with Elons politics/Twitter antics. Emotions cloud judgement. The pathway for Tesla to become the largest company in the World is clear and obvious to me"
X Link 2024-04-29T12:35Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"$NYCB management apologizes for the late notification of the date of the Companys earnings call 😭😂 Fireworks tomorrow at 7am"
X Link 2024-04-30T21:52Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@eyeslasho If it was a MAGA protest ShaQueefa wouldve thrown them all in jail. She is a perfect depiction of affirmative action"
X Link 2024-05-02T17:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@jbulltard1 $TSLA will 5x or more. Rates will be slashed oil will scream higher gas will be $10/gallon. Everyone will be forced into EVs and govt will augment demand with bigger tax credits. EVs will be cheaper to operate because you can power with nat gas and uranium"
X Link 2024-05-03T13:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@jbulltard1 The rolls Royce 😭😮💨🔥"
X Link 2024-05-06T19:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"$GIFI $61M cash $113M MC $22M EBITDA est. for [----]. $36M of DTAs. Getting back on the conference circuit. Suggested that skilled labor shortage was growth bottleneck and that Large scale fab contracts are being issued more slowly due to higher rates. Hopefully they deploy cash soon to acquire other participants at this cycle bottom"
X Link 2024-05-08T02:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@red_dog_capital @ChrisOlin @red_dog_capital The Emotional Investor 😭😂"
X Link 2024-05-08T08:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@NCSI_SA Penny flippers probably piled in ahead of ER hoping to make a quick buck on a pop. No reason for another 20%+ move til a contract or acquisition is announced imo. Now the penny flippers are dumping"
X Link 2024-05-08T15:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Its kind of a rate play imo. Large fab projects are being delayed due to higher funding costs and economic uncertainty. Feels like a cyclical bottom for the fab industry. Having a big cash pile at this point of cycle is rare. $GIFI would be wise to utilize it for an acquisition asap while multiples are low. If we get cuts I would expect project awards and multiple expansion. Powerful combo. No cuts = dead money probably"
X Link 2024-05-08T15:56Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Back to b/e on my $172 $TSLA position. April CPI will likely surprise to the downside on May [--] driven by lower OER. Rate cut expectations will surge and car loan rates will decline over time which will stimulate Demand particularly for EVs given the tax credits and stubbornly high gas prices. No doubt in my mind $TSLA will be 200+ by May [--] market close"
X Link 2024-05-09T19:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Its kind of a rate play imo. Large fab projects are being delayed due to higher funding costs and economic uncertainty. Feels like a cyclical bottom for the fab industry. Having a big cash pile at this point of cycle is rare. $GIFI would be wise to utilize it for an acquisition or buybacks asap while multiples are low. If we get cuts I would expect project awards to drive up earnings and multiple expansion. Powerful combo. I expect the curve to price in more cuts following the May [--] CPI release which will undoubtedly come in below expectations"
X Link 2024-05-09T19:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Weekly portfolio update #3 Tragedy has struck. GIFI and ATKR dumped hard on earnings. Lone trade this week was adding to ATKR at $162. - ✅"
X Link 2024-05-10T21:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@PauloMacro Americans are being crushed by inflation which is only being exacerbated by higher interest rates given everyone is levered up. $GME can go much higher this time. This is a revolution"
X Link 2024-05-14T12:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Weekly portfolio update #4 Pretty shit week but the strong $UEC move on Friday actually generated some modest positive + for the week. Recently announced Sleepy Joe tariffs should benefit $GIFI and $TSLA. Protectionist stance by both candidates probably benefits $ATKR too longer term. $SWBI keeps bleeding like a stuck pig but earnings are around the corner. Seadrill reported a $545K clean day rate which bodes well for $RIG just hope I have enough duration on those calls for the move to $10. - ✅"
X Link 2024-05-17T22:24Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@CECL_Allowance No you are correct"
X Link 2024-05-18T13:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@ThatOneDutchGuy @HighyieldHarry lol cry harder snowflake 😂"
X Link 2024-05-19T10:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Aureliusltd28 Excl. $CARE I would L/S $NEWT/$EGBN"
X Link 2024-05-22T18:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@jbulltard1 Hes rolling them out"
X Link 2024-06-12T20:06Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@Matt_E_Baumann Didnt you get fired from Tesla"
X Link 2024-06-16T11:05Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@eyeslasho Murder rate is positively correlated with concentration of blacks"
X Link 2024-06-17T14:54Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Wife spends a ton at $LULU but I dont care because it makes me horny seeing her walk around in skin tight clothes all day and apparently it inspires her to work out even more. Maybe its the perfect business model Might go giga long 🤔"
X Link 2024-06-18T16:09Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@jbulltard1 Time to rotate into $TSLA"
X Link 2024-06-20T14:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@blondesnmoney @CECL_Allowance @bigcoveranch Call me Shawn Johnson cause I think its a buy"
X Link 2024-06-27T03:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Litz walking into the office today $CARE"
X Link 2024-06-27T12:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@jbulltard1 $AMZN doesnt have Elon Musk the Thomas Edison of our time"
X Link 2024-06-27T16:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@JasonGWild @DougKass Its DOCTOR Jill Biden to you"
X Link 2024-06-28T14:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Transcript intelligence generated a summary of an earnings call in less than a minute and its better than what I couldve done in an hour. My job is not safe"
X Link 2024-07-16T14:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Biden is more fucked than a fixed income PM with a barbell strat going into a positive butterfly twist"
X Link 2024-07-18T18:56Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Shares trading down around [---] right now after the earnings report. I really dont care what the results were Im still not inclined to sell which kind of makes me think Im in a cult. I have been susceptible to cult stocks in the past and it has cost me dearly. Oh well"
X Link 2024-07-24T17:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Shares down below [---] in pre-market. Almost all gains evaporated. Considering adding more but probably go with $CRWD instead. VIX [--] doesnt come very often. Better take advantage"
X Link 2024-08-05T13:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$NYCB does a 3-1 reverse split and then maintains the dividend at $0.01. Pretty slick way of reducing the dividend by 66%"
X Link 2024-08-06T18:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@CCM_Brett Is Lululemon a regional bank"
X Link 2024-08-11T23:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@marketplunger1 Me on Monday morning while taking a shit and checking futes after shorting VIX Friday AMC"
X Link 2024-08-11T23:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@hkuppy Your libtard is showing. Trump is wonderfully entertaining"
X Link 2024-08-27T19:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@TheSonOfWalkley The FSD Tesla semi will change the World"
X Link 2024-08-27T19:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Ford_Nick Salt & corn"
X Link 2024-08-27T19:23Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Imagine youre a novice investor who made an ostensibly low-risk investment in $DG and then you wake up to -30% like you invested in an unprofitable shitco lmao 😂"
X Link 2024-08-29T14:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"This is the cheapest $ELF has been on forward earnings since the stock was $21. Im in"
X Link 2024-09-16T15:43Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Since this post: $DCOM +33% $NVDA -8% L/S $DCOM/$NVDA L/S $DCOM/$NVDA"
X Link 2024-09-17T14:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$TSLA at [---] now. Side note I did end up adding $CRWD at [---] on the day the VIX spiked as referenced in my prior tweet. Wouldve bought the open at [---] but compliance took forever to clear the trade. Anyways lower forward rates should help $TSLA but some demand has already been pulled forward from its promotional interest rate offerings. Then again this whole thesis really hinges on 10/10. The FSD videos Ive seen have been encouraging but we will see over time. I know Elons track record is checkered in terms of meeting publicly-stated objectives but look at what he has achieved so far across"
X Link 2024-09-17T14:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$ELF Long runway for growth expanding margins reasonable forward valuation (28x NTM earnings in line with lower growth peers $EL and $LRLCY). Should revert to a premium valuation (40-50x) at some point given outsized growth opportunities and market share gains. On $4 NTM EPS that puts my 12-month price target at $160-200 or 45-80% upside"
X Link 2024-09-25T12:24Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"NTM FCF yields for the cyber security cohort $CHKP $PANW $FTNT $ZS $CRWD $S"
X Link 2024-09-26T16:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"NTM PEG ratios for the cyber security cohort. $CHKP $PANW $FTNT $ZS $CRWD"
X Link 2024-09-26T16:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@RichardJKPE @mellowrk_lion Gotcha but HDSN is still similarly positioned to benefit from the same mega trend no Or is it to a lesser extent Sorry for the dimwitted questions HVAC is not in my wheelhouse"
X Link 2024-09-26T18:52Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"If robotaxis are the future of ground transportation (which I believe) chances are that every single one will be electric. What would that do to lithium demand 🤔 $LAC"
X Link 2024-09-26T20:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"This exercise has inspired me to sell my $CRWD. Feels like the easy money has been made. Not sure what would drive the valuation higher at this point. Will sell at the open"
X Link 2024-09-27T12:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Interesting podcast from June with $ELF CMO Kory Marchisotto. I recommend giving it a listen. The company is far more innovative and agile than the industry incumbents $EL and $LRLCY leading to strong market share gains. That said the runway for growth is still long. Also $elfs employees interests and shareholders interests are very well-aligned (everyone owns equity). Stock continues to be pinned sub-$115. Im patiently waiting for $100 before tripling my position to [---] shares. Hard to imagine this does not trade $200 in [----] at some point"
X Link 2024-09-27T17:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Any time the $VIX is +10% on the day you should be buying stocks. Its that simple"
X Link 2024-10-01T14:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$TSLA musings: oil is +3% today on rumors that an Iranian missile attack on Israel is imminent. Lets humor ourselves and envision a scenario where the attack happens and the price of oil subsequently doubles For the U.S. economy that is a left tail event but for $TSLA it would be right tail for obvious reasons. Also such an event would almost certainly be met with emergency rate cuts and a resumption of QE by the Fed which would also be bullish for $TSLA. $TSLA core auto business is inflecting and now the China stimulus is an added tailwind. 10/10 is around the corner. Energy business"
X Link 2024-10-01T14:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"(1/2) Many people will lump $ELF and $CELH in the same bucket as both are consumer products companies that have experienced a slowdown in growth and have share prices 50% below their recent highs. However relative to peers one appears much cheaper than the other"
X Link 2024-10-02T14:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"(2/2) On a NTM P/E basis $ELF trades at a modest discount to peers $EL and $LRLCY. (27x vs 30x) In contrast $CELH trades at a premium relative to its peers $MNST $FIZZ $KO $KDP and $PEP. (33x vs 25x) Over the next [--] months Street expectations are for +21% and +0% sales growth for $ELF and $CELH respectively. That said although the charts and story may be similar $ELF appears attractively valued whereas $CELH appears fairly valued at best"
X Link 2024-10-02T15:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Rebrand_As_Y Day [---] of owning $MTCH:"
X Link 2024-10-03T19:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Strong jobs numbers (+254K vs +150K expected) is bullish for consumer goods companies like $ELF. Personally I dont trust the govt numbers at all but most do which drives sentiment and in turn the earnings multiple. I am pounding the table once again to go long my favorite GARP name (💄gay 🌈 at a reasonable price) $ELF"
X Link 2024-10-04T13:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@BottomPhishing $ELF is a bargain at current prices. Its trading at a discount to peers despite above-peer growth. $CELH becomes interesting at $22"
X Link 2024-10-09T13:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$ELF is an ESG fund managers wet dream. This commands a premium valuation. Although personally I dont believe racial and gender diversity in and of itself is a necessarily positive thing. $ELF's "board is the only public company board out of [----] that has 78% women and 44% diverse representation" e.l.f. Beauty CEO Tarang Amin says. "We believe diversity is a big driver of our success." Full interview: https://t.co/0KJobAZGko $ELF's "board is the only public company board out of [----] that has 78% women and 44% diverse representation" e.l.f. Beauty CEO Tarang Amin says. "We believe diversity is"
X Link 2024-10-09T13:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Sold of out of $CRWD at $282 for +27% and the share price has climbed another 11% since. What keeps driving the valuation higher I dont understand this stock. I swung it before from $150 to $250 but then it kept climbing to $400. Probably should just b&h"
X Link 2024-10-10T14:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"4 hour on-board delay followed by cancellation. Better luck tomorrow Fuck I hate $UAL"
X Link 2024-10-11T18:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"$ELF is -4% today following weak results by $COTY and its bearish commentary on the sector outlook (well-covered by @Fierce__beast). My take: its all noise and does not impact my thesis. Could $ELF marginally revise guidance downwards when it reports Maybe but thats already priced-in imo. Its still trading at a discount to lower-growth peers. Alternatively If $ELFs market share gains are enough to offset the weaker category sales and guidance holds steady I believe we see a sharp move higher"
X Link 2024-10-15T14:07Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"I submitted a request to my compliance department to purchase [---] shares of $HIMS at 8:38am. The request still has not been reviewed lol. Was pretty pissed because its now +10% from where I wouldve bought it ($20.50) but now Im coping by telling myself a guardian angel stopped the trade. I am putting that theory to the test by forgoing a position. Instead I will be buying [---] more $ELF. Will revisit this post later"
X Link 2024-10-15T19:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Purchased [--] more $ELF shares at $108 to complete my position. I hold [---] shares at an average cost of $114. My exit strategy is to sell [---] shares at $160 [---] shares at $180 and [--] shares at $200. This translates to a target ROI of 54% with a 6-12 month holding period. My expectation is for shares to re-rate to 40-50x 2025E EPS of $4 which is where my $160-200 target exit range comes from"
X Link 2024-10-16T17:57Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Update: I cucked out and bought $HIMS the next day at $22.50. Fuck the guardian angel. My DD on this was minimal at best. All I heard was that its 30x FCF and that the TAM is enormous. Bought it after back-to-back +10% days at 70+ daily RSI like a true n00b. Full degen trade"
X Link 2024-10-18T21:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Bears are missing the forest for the trees when citing the slowdown in scanned channel data. International growth is what matters most going forward. 16% of $ELF sales are international versus peers at 60-70%. $ELF just expanded into Germany and Mexico. The runway for growth is long. Although scanned channels have dipped 20% y/y they will be supported by shelf space gains at Walmart (8 ft to [--] ft). Expecting some margin pressure this quarter due to greater ad spend and expansion costs which will turn to a tailwind in 2H25. Shares are very attractive at a discount to lower-growth legacy"
X Link 2024-10-21T11:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Me if $TSLA and $ELF go belly up https://t.co/YkLtEaC3OI https://t.co/YkLtEaC3OI"
X Link 2024-10-21T12:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Deshaun Watsons season is over. What remarkable consistency he has shown over his tenure in Cleveland. Unheard of at the quarterback position"
X Link 2024-10-21T16:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@JustBankStocks @no__bs__ @Aureliusltd28 Yeah theyre building the reserve over time to reflect a greater mix to C&I. Their MF book is bullet proof imo. Check the underwriting. They werent engaged in the same nonsense that NYCB was competing against the agencies"
X Link 2024-10-22T14:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@no__bs__ @JustBankStocks @Aureliusltd28 The DSCR metrics are night and day Theres a reason why 19% of NYCBs MF book is rated as substandard/nonaccrual versus DCOM at 2%"
X Link 2024-10-22T14:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The DSCR based on current payment terms of course ended up including $7B of I/O loans that were unknown to the market. When stressed for higher renewal rates the DSCRs on the I/Os were 1.0x and 1.25x on the fully amortizing piece. Look at the Flatbush Gardens property (loan-level data given in CLPR 10-Q). You wont find any monstrosities like that in DCOMs book. NYCB changed its credit box to compete with agencies on larger deals while DCOM stuck to its sub-$5M knitting"
X Link 2024-10-22T15:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$ELF is getting whacked again today this time in sympathy with $LRLCY whose quarterly results missed expectations and were accompanied by a downwardly revised growth outlook. Sentiment in the category has reached rock bottom levels. If $ELF reports solid results on November [--] as I expect the stage is set for a sharp re-rate higher as the current in-line-with-peer valuation will become completely unjustifiable. Its easy to not appreciate $ELFs market share gains when the market is expanding because everyone is still growing. However their competitive advantages will become much more apparent"
X Link 2024-10-22T17:01Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@PeterWuTW That is a very real possibility but I dont think such a dip would last long. Especially with the buyback authorization in place. Unfortunately my position is fully built at an average cost of $114 so I wouldnt be able to take advantage of that dip if it comes"
X Link 2024-10-22T17:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@no__bs__ Lets call it Esquire"
X Link 2024-10-22T19:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Buy $NVDA What do you do in this situation 😨 https://t.co/3YXwUTW23l What do you do in this situation 😨 https://t.co/3YXwUTW23l"
X Link 2024-10-22T22:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@jbulltard1 Robovan will push it beyond $1k"
X Link 2024-10-24T14:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Got the significant follow through to an even greater degree than was initially anticipated. Stock climbed all the way to $260 yesterday and has already followed through to $270 so far today. $300 will probably be here by December at this rate. I just dont see why the buying pressure would stop. There are a lot of short positions that need to unwind and a lot of FOMO/MOMO. $TSLA is a no-brainer long for large fund managers given its great liquidity"
X Link 2024-10-25T13:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$ELF earnings are scheduled to be released on Wed Nov [--] after the close. Right now the options market is pricing in a 15% move post-release. Thats $127 on the upside or $93 on the downside. Either scenario seems possible for me. The category is out of favor and ELFs 2Q results are likely to be a little noisy so it seems reasonable that it could get punished if results and guidance are just in line. However if ELF is able to post a solid beat and raise in the wake of its competitors misses which I suspect it will given its domestic market share gains and international expansion that would"
X Link 2024-10-25T17:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$LAC now +50% from when it popped on my radar. In hindsight this was a no-brainer at $2.70/share. It probably goes much higher too but I dont have the buying power to allocate to it due to other higher conviction ideas. That said you can learn just as valuable lessons from watching trades you passed on play out as you can from watching trades you took. My investing theme is good business with lousy sentiment. Sentiment on Lithium was (still is) at rock-bottom levels despite a secular tailwind which creates opportunity"
X Link 2024-10-28T14:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@ruth_capital That was me on $HIMS two weeks ago. Except it was +10% for two consecutive days 😔"
X Link 2024-10-28T15:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Rebrand_As_Y The Tesla robotaxi fixes this"
X Link 2024-10-28T19:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Triessence seemed like a long shot IHEEZO uptake was slower than expected and the core drugs Fab-5 or whatever theyre called slowed. I sold in Nov [--]. It was obvious that the thesis was back on post-release of results in May [--] but I was too salty to buy it back. Oh well lesson learned"
X Link 2024-10-29T20:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Added [---] more $HIMS at $19. Total position is now [---] shares at $21. Its trading at 20x [----] consensus EPS of $0.96 which I assume will be upwardly revised over time. Down big today on GLP-1 revenue miss by $LLY. Sets the stage for a sharp move higher post earnings on Nov. [--] if the results and outlook are favorable which I expect. The prophet @rubicon59 has been all over this one lately"
X Link 2024-10-30T19:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$ELF is down again today (-3%) this time in sympathy with peer $EL (-25%) who released poor 1Q results (net sales -5% y/y) that were accompanied by a 50% dividend cut 😮💨 and a withdrawal of its [----] full-year guidance 😲 due to weakness in China $EL guided to 2Q EPS of $0.20-0.35 versus consensus of $1.05 😵 This creates yet another buying opportunity for $ELF who does not sell in China so it will not have to contend with the same headwinds. Additionally it does not sell high-priced products so it actually benefits from consumers trading down in tougher economic times. On Nov. [--] I expect"
X Link 2024-10-31T13:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Even after putrid 😷 1Q results that incited a 21% sell-off $EL still trades at a premium (29.8x NTM consensus) to peer $ELF (26.3x NTM consensus) as analyst estimate cuts offset the sharp move down. To that point analysts have slashed their [----] EPS estimate for $EL by 57% YTD versus a 12% YTD raise for $ELF. Ask yourself does it make sense for the industry disruptor that is rapidly growing earnings and gaining market share to trade at the same valuation as legacy incumbents who face significant earnings challenges and are having their lunch eaten on a daily basis I expect a sharp re-rating"
X Link 2024-11-01T12:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@ruth_capital @DeItaone @Kalshi Sorry I loaded the boat on Kamala to hedge my $KRE long"
X Link 2024-11-01T13:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$ATKR is gapping up above its 50DMA after forming a nice base. Reminds me of the $LAC set up at $2.70/share (now $4.30). I know they are facing a lawsuit but my uneducated opinion is that its just noise. Management are sharp operators. Its a share cannibal that has likely been accumulating shares $100. LT beneficiary of electrification trend and ST beneficiary of lower interest rates. Wish I had the buying power to add here"
X Link 2024-11-04T15:36Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Its a big week for my three stock portfolio as $HIMS reports after the close today and $ELF reports on Wednesday after the close. Looks like the options market is pricing in a +/- 15% move for each stock. I expect a positive earnings reaction for $ELF given the depressed valuation and likely better-than-feared results. On $HIMS Im not sure what to expect. I like the story a lot but it makes me nervous how beloved it is on fintwit. That said sometimes cult stocks work out like $TSLA which is coincidentally my largest position"
X Link 2024-11-04T16:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$CBNA is soaring +7% ahead of Tuesdays Federal election. The de facto bank of the Republican Party would benefit from a clean sweep on Tuesday as it would support a more constructive near-term deposit outlook. Reported very solid 3Q results last week"
X Link 2024-11-04T17:48Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@Fierce__beast @DeepSailCapital I wonder what % of Natarium sales and international sales fall into the 20% e-commerce bucket"
X Link 2024-11-04T21:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@bucketshopcap $ELF"
X Link 2024-11-05T15:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I swear to god all of these videos that snowflakes are recording of themselves absolutely melting down post-Trump victory has added [--] years to my lifespan. Crush that shit up and shoot it in my veins"
X Link 2024-11-06T11:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Its earnings day for $ELF Im actually surprised to see that its up marginally in pre-market given Trumps victory and the Chinese tariff implications. In my opinion its a non-concern for $ELF given its 70% gross margins and ability to pass on higher costs to consumers due to lower price point but I know that its a common bear argument. The options market is pricing in a +- 14% move post-release which is as 4:30 pm ET. Here are the 2Q consensus bogeys: Revenue - $289.4M EPS - $0.43 Gross margin - 70.9% Net margin - 8.7% A couple of thoughts: Marketing spend will be elevated on a y/y basis as"
X Link 2024-11-06T13:19Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"I doubt it. Still too expensive relative to peers given the muted growth outlook. Further estimate cuts are likely given the miss. They can blame supply chain optimization all they want but reality is the stock will be dead money at best till they can prove the growth story isnt dead which will take time"
X Link 2024-11-06T13:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$HIMS is surging +19% today following the Trump victory as impotence soars across the liberal cohort which should stimulate the boner-pill TAM. In all seriousness not sure whats driving the relative outperformance today. Does $HIMS somehow benefit from Trump Saw this interesting take from @BlueDuckCap RFKJr will get a chance to re-shape and rebuild health care in this country. He's been supportive of certain treatments like Peptides. This could open up entirely new verticals for platforms like $HIMS. https://t.co/PrAAKZsRd2 RFKJr will get a chance to re-shape and rebuild health care in this"
X Link 2024-11-06T15:27Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"$HIMS is surging +19% today following the Trump victory as impotence soars across the liberal cohort which should stimulate the boner-pill TAM. In all seriousness not sure whats driving the relative outperformance today. Does $HIMS somehow benefit from Trump Saw this interesting take from @BlueDuckCap 👇 RFKJr will get a chance to re-shape and rebuild health care in this country. He's been supportive of certain treatments like Peptides. This could open up entirely new verticals for platforms like $HIMS. https://t.co/PrAAKZsRd2 RFKJr will get a chance to re-shape and rebuild health care in"
X Link 2024-11-06T15:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$ELF reported another solid beat and raise in 2Q differentiating itself from legacy peers $EL and $LRLCY who reported weak 2Q results which highlights the absurdity of the in line valuation. $ELF initially surged +19% in AH to $124 but has settled at +11% in pre-market. Based on the results I would expect an almost immediate re-rating to 35x NTM consensus EPS of [----] a 5-10 turn premium to legacy peers which translates to a share price of $130. My [--] key takeaways: 1) Tariff concerns appear to be overblown as $ELF is well-equipped to pass COGS increases off on channel partners and"
X Link 2024-11-07T13:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$TSLA has surged +23% since Trumps victory and now trades at 91x NTM consensus EPS. The Trump victory turns $TSLAs political risk headwind into a tailwind and also improves the regulatory outlook for FSD which supports the upwards revaluation. I believe sentiment on the stock is now moderately bullish versus highly pessimistic when I entered at $177/share. That said I believe there is further upside for multiple expansion over time probably enough to support a $325-350 share price in the near term. Then I believe that share price growth will need to be driven by EPS growth which will be"
X Link 2024-11-07T16:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Been a $HIMS shareholder for a couple weeks now and have been following the stock closely on fintwit since. I must say I dont think Ive ever seen a bigger bunch of financially illiterate retards than the $HIMS cult. Actually the $SOFI cult might be worse but there is a lot of overlap there. For example: $60M of the $79M of FCF generation last quarter was from a one-off tax event but that didnt stop this guy 👇 from annualizing it slapping another 10% on top of that and projecting it for [----] 😭 thousands of followers 😂 Bullish on $HIMS but lying in bed with a bunch of useful idiots makes me"
X Link 2024-11-08T12:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Aureliusltd28 I think $VLY rips off this 📈"
X Link 2024-11-08T14:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I hear a Shitco rally is afoot. Time to dig up the [----] cadavers. I like big bases and I cannot lie. Who else remembers this [----] gem 👇😭 https://youtu.be/E_YIZyVzymAsi=rW7x5FYtZ8PMjNN0 https://youtu.be/E_YIZyVzymAsi=rW7x5FYtZ8PMjNN0"
X Link 2024-11-08T18:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@SixSigmaCapital $ELF"
X Link 2024-11-09T18:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"The #Bucs are the best 4-6 team Ive ever seen. Im calling it nowthey finish the year 10-7 and make the playoffs. Getting on the bandwagon now is like buying LEAPS on $NVDA in late-2022. Will revisit this at season end"
X Link 2024-11-10T22:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Another downright pornographic day for my 3-stock portfolio. Pushing +70% YTD now. $TSLA $ELF $HIMS"
X Link 2024-11-11T14:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$HIMS is soaring +17% today to a fresh ATH. No overhead resistance and still cheap at 23x consensus [----] EPS of $1.18 which is +23% from the prior [----] consensus estimate of $0.96 before the release of 3Q results last week. Why couldnt it re-rate to 50x given the growth profile Also a more favorable regulatory outlook with DJT and RFK at the helm. And what if estimates go up to $1.50/share 50x1.5=$75"
X Link 2024-11-11T14:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$HIMS has been absolutely blasted -35% since $AMZN announced its direct competitor yesterday. I actually tend to agree with the mostly delusional $HIMS bulls who view the news as a bullish validation of the business model and TAM rather than as an existential threat to $HIMS. I get $AMZN has distribution and economies of scale to their advantage but theyve been playing in the sandbox for a long time without gaining traction. Also their foray into music and video didnt kill $SPOT or $NFLX for example so its not as easy as you might think. $HIMS is trading at 17x [----] consensus EPS of $1.18."
X Link 2024-11-15T16:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Putting my money where my mouth is. First sports bet since college. I have 90% confidence in [---] wins and 50% confidence in a playoff berth assuming Mayfield stays healthy. Worst case scenario is +$50 in my view. I am a savant when it comes to this team"
X Link 2024-11-17T18:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Well $HIMS closed below the [--] DMA for the first time since late-September. Historically that has been a reliable indicator that the stock will underperform in the short-term (1-3 months). However the stock is slightly above the [--] DMA of $19.86 in pre-market so if it is able to decisively close back above $20/share we would have a false breakdown which I would view as very bullish. That said if the stock reverses its pre-market gains and closes red on the day those with a shorter term view should probably seek greener pastures elsewhere in the near-term"
X Link 2024-11-18T14:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Downright mouthwatering setup on $ATKR as the [--] DMA has transitioned its gender from resistance to support. If the stock is able bounce nicely following a kiss of the [--] DMA its clear skies to $130/share. Im already levered to the hilt so I cant participate in this one but just sharing for the benefit of my only fans bot followers ❤"
X Link 2024-11-18T16:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"The pump is real and there is no end in sight barring a black swan. Probably will swap [---] $ELF for [---] more $SQ. Gotta trade the market in front of you. JUST IN: VanEck officially endorses President-elect Trump's plan to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve. JUST IN: VanEck officially endorses President-elect Trump's plan to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve"
X Link 2024-11-19T20:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$SQ added [---] shares this morning. Block sits at the intersection of crypto and fintech which will likely be hot sectors throughout the Trump presidency. The chart looks great and the valuation is reasonable at 21.4x NTM EPS. Also Dorsey is buddies with Musk who is basically the President. All signs point towards significant multiple expansion in the coming months in my opinion"
X Link 2024-11-20T14:48Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"$ELF is -9% following the below short report by @muddywatersre. I havent parsed it yet but the negative sentiment it brings is enough to get me out of the rest of my position for now. My guess is that this is dead money till next ER. Luckily I sold most this morning at $120 but I dumped the last [---] at $112. Ended up +2% on the trade. Will look to reenter closer to 3Q earnings. MW is short $ELF. We believe it's overstating revenue profits inventory. 80% of its product is imported. Import data show [--] quarters ago ELFs imports crashed by 2/3 & havent recovered yet sales in the US have defied"
X Link 2024-11-20T16:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$SQ ring me up for [---] more. Only thing that makes me nervous about this play is that every chartist on X is bullish on this stock lol"
X Link 2024-11-20T16:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$TSLA reached the expected $325-350 range and has been flagging for the last couple weeks. I wouldve sold CCs when it hit $350 as outlined in my prior post but I have a 30-day minimum holding period mandate so I chickened out. The price action is bullish in my view and is supportive of a continuation higher. I revoke my prior statement that the next move higher will need to be supported by earnings growth. I think the valuation could get much frothier. Im holding for $500"
X Link 2024-11-20T18:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Incredible recovery by $ELF which was down as much as 14% at the lows following the short report by @muddywatersre. Pretty easy to poke holes in that report which is probably why the stock rebounded so sharply despite no management rebuttal yet. I kinda feel like a pussy for paper handing my last [---] shares at [---] but I already had one foot out the door because price action was pretty shitty post-ER and Ive had a hard on for $SQ. Still made a little money on the trade (in at [---] out at 116) but Im hoping $ELF remains under pressure for the next month or two so that I can re-enter ahead of 3Q"
X Link 2024-11-21T13:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Not exactly. $POWL is a specialized provider of custom electrical solutions and automation systems while $ATKR focuses on mass-produced electrical infrastructure components used in construction and power distribution. $POWL operates in a more bespoke project-oriented environment (lots of data center demand right now) while $ATKR is more about large-scale high-volume manufacturing and distribution"
X Link 2024-11-23T21:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Finally took some time to actually consider how $HIMS should be valued. Telehealth peers trade at 1x NTM sales versus $HIMS at 2.8x because they all hemorrhage cash are loaded with debt and/or have no top line growth. Needless to say not a great proxy for $HIMS. Then you have your drug manufacturers like $LLY and $NVO with similar gross margin profiles to $HIMS but lower growth trading at 10-12x NTM sales. I view the higher net margins and lower growth rates of the manufacturers as roughly offsetting factors when comparing to $HIMS but not great proxies either. $HIMS is a unique animal and"
X Link 2024-11-25T14:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Perhaps unsurprisingly $SQ is weak today as all of fintwit has become bullish on the stock and chart after a 50% run up since August. I dont think Ive ever seen a chart posted as much as $SQ. Also the Bitcoin correction today isnt helping. $SQ will probably need to consolidate recent gains for a while so eyes will come off it before it can resume the uptrend but I remain bullish on the longer-term prospects"
X Link 2024-11-25T15:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"So you want to play the expected LNG boom Look no further than $GIFI. $113M MC $65M cash just $18M of low-yielding debt. Profitable. New management is sharp and has completely turned around the business. It is well-positioned to drive significant operating leverage in a LNG upcycle. A strong candidate for earnings growth and multiple expansion. Multi-bagger potential. 📈"
X Link 2024-11-25T15:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$HIMS is now +21% today and just took out its previous ATH of $30.42. Nothing but empty space above and a massive base built out. I think this one trades up to the $40s in short order"
X Link 2024-11-25T19:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$HIMS is set up for an $APP-like re-rating in the coming months in my view. Reiterate $75 PT"
X Link 2024-11-26T16:04Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"20x sales is crazy but 10x isnt versus 3x today. If the multiple holds at 3x then $HIMS will need to grow revenue by 15x in [--] years to reach your $100B valuation target. Thats a 10-yr CAGR of 30%. Possible but unlikely. There will be multiple expansion from here no doubt about it. Finally took some time to actually consider how $HIMS should be valued. Telehealth peers trade at 1x NTM sales versus $HIMS at 2.8x because they all hemorrhage cash are loaded with debt and/or have no top line growth. Needless to say not a great proxy for $HIMS. Then you https://t.co/JPQ4NPUVzC Finally took some"
X Link 2024-11-26T18:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$HIMS buy the stock and you wont need the pills"
X Link 2024-11-26T18:47Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"The great re-rating is upon us. $75/share is destiny. Smell ya later bears 🐻 $HIMS"
X Link 2024-11-27T14:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@PurpleDrink_LLC Swing $HIMS to $50 and call it a year"
X Link 2024-11-27T14:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Stocks tend to re-rate quickly once the market figures it out. $AMZN competitor sell-off was the the final shake of the tree to lose some retail before institutions let it run. $HIMS is in for an $APP-like rerating in the coming months. A lot of meat is left on this bone. See you at 7-8x sales which equals $75-85/share ✌"
X Link 2024-11-27T15:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"lol Epic egg on face 15% reversal. Im not looking the gift horse in the mouth. Submitted a request to compliance to buy more. I doubt it gets approved because theyre all probably gone for Thanksgiving but well see lol $HIMS"
X Link 2024-11-27T16:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$SQ is +5% today as Bernstein named Block as its best idea for [----]. Nice to see The Street highlight the 3nm chip. Im sure institutions have been accumulating shares for months. Would like to see a close over $94 today to signal that the rally is on. The valuation is cheap and there are several potential catalysts to re-rate in [----]. Also Dorseys value cannot be understated given new administration. The share price could double in [----] in my view. Bernstein: "Block (SQ) is our new best idea.We see under-appreciated long-term optionality from Bitcoin mining where SQ appears to be unique (in"
X Link 2024-12-02T17:37Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"At $SHAK in NYC enjoying a mid burger fries and water bottle for a robust $25. Short-worthy value imo but the place is packed. What am I missing here"
X Link 2024-12-02T20:24Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"I expect index returns will continue to get better and better on average each year. Right now the hurdle is 20-30%. Id imagine the hurdle will be 30-40% in a few years time but thats just me sticking my finger in the wind. $SPY $QQQ"
X Link 2024-12-03T12:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$HIMS has been in a bullish but volatile consolidation pattern since setting a new ATH last week. The stock prints 10% candles every day it seems. The previous ATH of $30.42 has turned into a strong area of support which I view very positively. Seems primed and ready for the next leg up into the $40-50 range. The fundamental and technical outlooks are both positively aligned. Reiterate $75 PT"
X Link 2024-12-03T15:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I never understood why anyone would buy $MSTRs 0% convertible debt issuances or why the stock trades at such a premium to its current $BTC holdings but now it makes sense (see attached clip from @fundstrat) There is $50T of outstanding corporate bond issuances today globally. If just 1% of that money wants $BTC exposure thats $500B of potential demand for $MSTRs bond issuances and in turn $BTC. What happens if that number goes to 5% $2.5T of incremental demand Seems like shit could get crazy. $BTC and $MSTR current market caps are $2T and $76B respectively. $MSTR currently holds $40B of"
X Link 2024-12-04T04:33Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Well I guess $MSTR and $MARA are going to just be psychological longs for me. Apparently on the Enterprise Restricted List 😭"
X Link 2024-12-04T14:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Is $MNMD a no-brainer with RFK at the helm of HHS Shroom to run imo. Lmao this fucking guy is incredible https://t.co/MESBqZXftb Lmao this fucking guy is incredible https://t.co/MESBqZXftb"
X Link 2024-12-04T19:50Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Previous ATH (split-adjusted) is $67 but the share count is up 3x since then so a $20 share price would match its previous ATH valuation of $1.5B. I know nothing of the merits of the business just that its a shroom play. Someone smarter than me who grasps the fundamentals please reply $MNMD"
X Link 2024-12-04T20:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Jedi_ant God I hope this is a hedge lol"
X Link 2024-12-04T20:43Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Milestone post gents. Havent shared this before but I had about this same size account back in [----]. I proceeded to blow it up to $30K by mid-2022 by ironically full-porting $NVDA to the heavy margin in the mid-20s (split-adjusted). I must be one of the few people that can say I went broke owning $NVDA lmao. I often wonder what couldve been as my position would now be worth over $700K if I didnt get margin called. Oh well. Anyways took a year off from trading the PA and just saved money because I was demoralized. Just focused on getting the CFA and my day job. Started to trade the PA again in"
X Link 2024-12-04T21:37Z [----] followers, 12.4K engagements
"$MSTR is now +12% from where I wish I couldve bought it (F U compliance) but this is still in the very early innings in my view. I bet that the size of the convertible issuances will increase exponentially from here. $5B then $10B then $25B then $100B. $MSTR could easily 3-5x from here in my view. There is potentially an extremely long runway for $BTC demand through debt markets which bodes well for $MSTR balance sheet growth. Obviously a high-risk investment but the risk/return profile seems very attractive to me"
X Link 2024-12-05T15:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"If robotaxis become a thing the average American will have an extra [---] hours per year to waste. What will they do while in the robotaxis Probably watch movies shop and social media. Bullish for $NFLX $AMZN and $META BREAKING: $TSLA LEAD ENGINEER SAYS ROBOTAXI WILL HAVE 50% FEWER PARTS THAN MODEL [--] 👀 Cost savings will be insane https://t.co/wUjB2RZd7i BREAKING: $TSLA LEAD ENGINEER SAYS ROBOTAXI WILL HAVE 50% FEWER PARTS THAN MODEL [--] 👀 Cost savings will be insane https://t.co/wUjB2RZd7i"
X Link 2024-12-05T23:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@LukeWolgram $HIMS $SQ $TSLA"
X Link 2024-12-06T11:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Founder-led companies breaking out of big bases. My favorite. $TSLA $HIMS $SQ"
X Link 2024-12-06T19:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Bond managers have had their teeth kicked in for [--] years straight. Bonds down almost every single day. If you were them wouldnt you be licking your chops at the opportunity for some $BTC exposure I estimate that there is at least $1T of demand on the sidelines right now for 0% coupon convertible notes that would be used to buy $BTC. $MSTR probably going to the 🌕🚀. Why mine bitcoin when you can just buy it Work smarter not harder. Well-played Saylor. I never understood why anyone would buy $MSTRs 0% convertible debt issuances or why the stock trades at such a premium to its current $BTC"
X Link 2024-12-07T13:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"911 whats your emergency $INDB"
X Link 2024-12-09T12:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$TSLA is down a smidge today despite rumors that the long-anticipated $25-30K new model to be launched in 1H25 will be the Model Q which is a smaller Model [--] with a hatchback. Its release should help Tesla reach Musks 20-30% y/y volume growth hurdle in [----] versus current Street expectations of 15%. [----] looks like it will be a strong year for $TSLA stock supported by upwards analysts EPS revisions the rollout of FSD and continued progress with Optimus. I expect $TSLA will reach a valuation of 2.0-2.5T by YE25 which portends a share price of $650-750. Take the midpoint my PT is $700🚀 Weve"
X Link 2024-12-09T17:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"The market has been on a parabolic trajectory since QE. Dont overthink it gents. All dips must be bought. Things will only accelerate from here. Reckless fiscal and monetary policy is creating a two-tier society. Those who own real and financial assets will be the ruling class. Those who dont are destined for serfdom. Do it for the bloodline 🫡 $SPY $QQQ"
X Link 2024-12-10T12:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I have $HIMS at 3x 2026E sales of $2.3B as of today. Personally I think it should trade 7-8x based on todays merits. Maybe even 10-12x in a year or two if they can continue to scale FCF. Buy side bears are dubious of $HIMS ability to scale FCF over time given there is no moat. Therein lies the opportunity. Thats why they trade at just 3x sales. Buy siders can be wrong too and I think they are in this case but management will need to prove that over time to get the multiple to re-rate to an appropriate level"
X Link 2024-12-10T15:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$BTC is selling off but $MSTR is up Listen closely smooth brains. The price of bitcoin is not the primary driver of this stock. Obviously look at the 2x premium to NAV. I think yields are the primary driver. As yields rise bond prices fall which pressures fixed income managers. This pressure has only gotten greater given phenomenal equity market returns in recent years. As a result fixed income managers are looking for creative ways to generate a better return and in turn save their jobs. Enter 0% convertible $MSTR bonds. The potential for $MSTR share price appreciation via convertible debt"
X Link 2024-12-10T19:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Finally took my $HIMS DD beyond just back of the envelope. Recent price action dictated it. The Street is modeling a significant deceleration in revenue growth from +67% in [----] to just +16% in [----]. To me that seems unlikely given the significant existing TAM as well as TAM expansion opportunities through new product verticals. The Street is modeling an adjusted EBITDA margin of just 15% in [----] whereas $HIMS has guided to 20%. I will take management at their word on this as they have a proven track record of meeting and exceeding its guidance. That said my revenue and adjusted EBITDA"
X Link 2024-12-11T15:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Pretty sure that $694.20 is now coded gents. I dont make the rules. $TSLA $TSLA @elonmusk https://t.co/NgJyr0m2AS $TSLA @elonmusk https://t.co/NgJyr0m2AS"
X Link 2024-12-12T00:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@TheSonOfWalkley It cost me over $100 to $UBER from LaGuardia airport to my hotel in NYC [--] miles away. Imagine how cheap it will be when you can take a robotaxi 😎"
X Link 2024-12-12T17:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Our head of macro is circulating a chart that depicts forward annual equity returns since [----] based on the starting unemployment rate and TTM P/E. Curious I asked him how he accounted for changes in the unemployment rate methodology over time. He said that he didnt. Lol. If you do the conclusion goes from starkly bearish to bullish. He probably makes $750K-1M/yr"
X Link 2024-12-12T18:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"My top picks for 2025: 1) $TSLA 2) $HIMS 3) $MSTR 4) $SQ in that order"
X Link 2024-12-13T14:47Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"$HIMS and $SQ sucked bigly this week but $TSLA +9% was more than enough to offset. Looking at the charts Im guessing that $TSLA flags out next week while EMAs catch up. $SQ looks ripe for a bounce or at least consolidation along the [--] day EMA. Similarly for $HIMS the [--] day EMA has been nice support expecting a bounce next week"
X Link 2024-12-13T21:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Checking in on the quantum names: $IONQ looks to have the most short-term upside potential of the group. Nice close above the [--] day EMA on Friday. It could be setting up for another run here as the set-up looks similar to early Novembers bounce off the [--] day EMA. $RGTI looks the most stretched of the group as its well above its EMAs and likely to pullback in my view. I wouldnt chase here. $QUBT has been the laggard of the group the [--] day EMA was tough resistance last week. Bulls need a bounce today and might want to set a stop loss at $5.80 if it starts to break down. $QBTS looks ready for a"
X Link 2024-12-16T12:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The ascent continues. Was wrong about $TSLA"
X Link 2024-12-16T18:20Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"$HIMS is up a bit this morning following Morgan Stanleys IoC at overweight with a $42 PT. The sell side is so far offsides on this name that its not even funny. Consensus PT is $27 or 15% lower than the current price. Laughable. Theres a major potential catalyst for a move higher with the FDA decision later this week. If the decision is positive $HIMS will likely surge to $40 in my view and then these WS analysts will be tripping over themselves to raise their PTs. All analyst estimates are too low. Theyre not paying attention to this name. For now. Therein lies the opportunity for"
X Link 2024-12-17T14:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"4 charts on my radar: 1) $TTD - broke out of a 2-week pennant yesterday on the highest volume in [--] weeks. Strong bounce off the [--] day EMA. Looks like it wants to retest $140. 2) $MGNI - descending triangle with the [--] day EMA as support. Im optimistic this resolves upwards given the $TTD breakout yesterday. 3) $SQ - popped out of the falling wedge and closed just above the [--] day EMA yesterday. Looks ripe for a continuation to $100. 4) $HIMS - successfully held the [--] day EMA and regained the [--] day EMA following the recent ATH. Looks poised to re-test ATHs. FDA decision tomorrow is a major"
X Link 2024-12-18T14:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Ad tech looks ready to rip $TTD $MGNI $PUBM"
X Link 2024-12-18T16:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$SPY is flat the last [---] weeks. Face ripper rally coming post-FOMC. Book it"
X Link 2024-12-18T18:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$HIMS is -12% today following the FDAs decision to remove Tirzepatide from the shortage list. $HIMS currently sells a compounded version of semaglutide which is another obesity drug. The read through is that semaglutide will also come off shortage soon which will be a headwind to $HIMS revenue growth. This FDA decision has been an overhang on the stock for a long time. I view this clearing event as bullish for the stock over the long-term despite the suboptimal outcome in the short-term. Investor focus and the narrative will now be shifted towards the many positives. I would not be surprised"
X Link 2024-12-19T14:36Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"$HIMS gap closed ✅ negative catalyst removed ✅ strong bounce off the lows ✅ Green close otw"
X Link 2024-12-19T14:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Brutal 15% DD in the port over the last two days. Looks like pain will continue today based on pre-market action but maybe we get the fabled red to green move. Still +91% YTD but itll probably take a few months to reclaim the high water mark. Bond market vigilantes are starting to make me sweat a little but I think that theyre wrong. My contrarian take is that DJT will be relatively deflationary but there is a long time between now and when that can be proven so who knows if markets crash before then. Kind of funny how rate cuts have arguably been a net negative so far for everyone but the"
X Link 2024-12-20T10:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@EvanWhitten10 Indeed it was. Now not so much. Still confident on the fundamental outlook though. $HIMS getting whacked on the FDA decision yesterday added insult to injury but was a much-needed clearing event imo. All eyes on PCE in [--] hours"
X Link 2024-12-20T11:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@paulcerro @Aktiediplomaten $HIMS will probably acquire branded drugs in the future for low upfront payments + milestones given its distribution. Lots of high-quality branded drugs never gain traction due to distribution challenges"
X Link 2024-12-20T12:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Outperforming the market in [----] is probably as simple as just buying all of the newly-anointed market leaders post-Trump re-election on this pullback. $TSLA $RDDT $SQ $PLTR $COIN $MSTR $HOOD $KRE"
X Link 2024-12-20T13:17Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Contrarian take: the bond market breakdown following the CPI release was a massive bear trap and bonds have bottomed. 🤷🏼♂"
X Link 2024-12-20T14:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$FDS is down today following earnings but they hosted a bullish investor day not long ago with encouraging product updates related to AI. Chart looks coiled. [--] year base"
X Link 2024-12-20T16:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Yield curve is starting to resemble the ol pecker again. Boolish"
X Link 2024-12-20T18:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@stocktalkweekly Stonks moar higher. Up"
X Link 2024-12-20T18:55Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"What if the impact of AGI is tantamount to the last [---] years of technological advancement As in what if in [----] we are looking at [----] like we look at [----] today. Moores law Pay attention to whats happening: Quantum stocks are ripping and exhibiting relative strength in a market drawdown. Google recently unveiled Willow a breakthrough in quantum processing. OpenAIs models have improved by 10x in [--] months. O-3. What could this portend AGI makes a significant part of the workforce obsolete maybe the majority. Financial assets soar driven by improved profitability which supports earnings growth"
X Link 2024-12-22T13:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$SQ is sitting right on the neckline of this inverse H&S retesting the breakout. EMAs have started to catch up and it looks primed for the next leg higher. Im flat as a pancake on my position. Liquid founder-led and reasonably valued + a crypto angle. Fintech sector should be hot in [----]. The setup looks a lot like $TSLA in early August. However if $SQ gives up the [--] DMA at $84 its probably back to the chop shop for a while and Id probably sell"
X Link 2024-12-23T13:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"One of the three seats in my portfolio has been reassigned. The new attendee will be announced in due time. Grid play. ⚡"
X Link 2024-12-24T12:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Managing investments is like managing a garden. Initiating positions is like planting seeds. First things first you need to give them time to grow. Dont constantly trade in and out of positions. Leave that to the algos. Less is more. Invest on monthly or annual time frames. Thats where you can have an edge. Once the seeds sprout to either a flower (+20%) or weed (-20%) its time to water (add) or prune (sell). Dont fall in love with a weed as weeds dont often turn to flowers. Harvest when times are good and plant more seeds and add more water when times are bad. Dont overthink it"
X Link 2024-12-29T12:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"2024 YTD ETF AUM changes: Equity AUM growth lagging market growth by 15%. Sell-off coming Fixed income AUM growth far outpacing flattish YTD bonds. Bounce coming Currency AUM surged from launch of Bitcoin ETFs. Commodities AUM basically flat as gold ETFs surged while money flowed out of energy"
X Link 2024-12-30T14:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Sure the 5YUST is +100 bp since the FFR [----] bp but banks can concede some spread now that theres upwards slope to the yield curve so credit demand in [----] should be strong especially given the improved business optimism. Good for economic growth. Simultaneously the US annual deficit should decrease with lower interest payments which should further ease inflationary pressures and lead to additional cuts in [----]. Meanwhile tariffs will reduce domestic consumption and increase tax revenues that will be used to pay down high-cost debt or stimulate domestic production both of which would be"
X Link 2024-12-30T15:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@himshouse The glp-1 nonsense is the only reason we can still buy shares at $25 instead of $40"
X Link 2024-12-30T19:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@blondesnmoney 😂"
X Link 2025-01-02T15:52Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"More $HIMS GLP-1 thoughts: 1) its a small portion of total revenue but was a significant contributor to FCF last Q given the higher margins relative to its other product offerings. The Street is dubious of $HIMS ability to generate FCF without GLPs. ARPU was flat at $50-55 for [--] years then jumped to $67 last quarter. 2) $HIMS can still sell compounded GLP-1 through the 503a exception after the semaglutide shortage ends. $HIMS expects to bring Liraglutide the first generic GLP-1 to market in [----] and already has a confirmed supplier. More than 1M of $HIMS subscribers currently utilize"
X Link 2025-01-02T16:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"If the lord gives me the strength to hodl my positions and not execute a single trade in [----] I just know my return will be 1xx% $TSLA $HIMS $AMSC"
X Link 2025-01-02T17:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"The universe is now in balance $HIMS $AMSC"
X Link 2025-01-02T18:18Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"The adults are back in charge"
X Link 2025-01-03T20:34Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Ezpz. Cash me out #gobucs 💰"
X Link 2025-01-06T13:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"The bull is awakening. Still pretty much no one on X talking about this one but they will be once it breaks $40 $AMSC"
X Link 2025-01-06T16:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Aktiediplomaten @OpenAI For context WS expectations are for revenue of $469.7M and $HIMS guided range is $465-470M. $HIMS exceeded its guidance in the prior two quarters and fell within the range the three quarters preceding that"
X Link 2025-01-07T14:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Me watching the $TSLA daily chart right after telling myself that my invested capital is long duration"
X Link 2025-01-07T16:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Rising bond yields havent been bad for equities this time because the major indices are driven disproportionately by MAG7 which is the modern day safe haven asset. Once inflation expectations moderate money should flow out of MAG7 into other equities. Breadth should return as indices tread water"
X Link 2025-01-07T16:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@blondesnmoney Investors are the most underweight bonds that they have ever been at the precipice of the most deflationary technological advancement in human history lol"
X Link 2025-01-07T18:01Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"What fast food has the longest half life This hour-old $MCD is damn near inedible"
X Link 2025-01-07T20:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$AMSC sitting right below the [--] [--] and [--] day EMA cluster from $27.07-27.58. Lets see if it can regain this key support level before the close. Irrelevant to the LT thesis but would bode well for the ST outlook"
X Link 2025-01-08T15:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$HIMS has a freakishly similar setup. Launch pads 🚀"
X Link 2025-01-08T16:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@himshouse Source This is what I get when I pull consensus estimates from Visible Alpha"
X Link 2025-01-08T18:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$HIMS implied that it has [-----] GLP-1 subscribers as of 3Q24. $HIMS also shared that the average starting price point for GLP-1s is $199/mo. 3Q24 GLP-1 sales contribution: [-----] x $199 x [--] =$28.7M $HIMS 3Q revenue $401.6M GLP contribution: 7.1% Even if you take average cost to $250/mo its 10% of sales. Consensus WS estimate is for $469.7M of revenue in 4Q. If 25% of that is expected to be driven by GLP-1 as you say that would imply consensus GLP revenue of $117.4M or 300-400% growth q/q. Not likely. The GLP-1 issue is much more of a FCF headwind than a revenue headwind"
X Link 2025-01-08T22:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Wow so the average COGS for an order is $150-250 That seems high. I thought that was the retailers AOV. It implies that the retailers AOV is $300-500 if I assume a 50% GM. Does that sound right Im not sure. $HIMS AOV is $150 for example with 80% GMs ($30 COGS/order). However it makes sense because taking 20-30% of sales did sound steep. Lets say their retail partners get 1.3M orders in [----] with AOV of $150. Lets also assume they have a 50% GM before HYDTF adds its cut. Thats COGS of $97.5M. HYDTF adds on their 30% thats $29.3M from 1.3M orders. Does that sounds right Also how would an end to"
X Link 2025-01-10T15:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Easy buys $ELF $OSCR"
X Link 2025-01-13T17:31Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Healthcare providers have bucked a weak tape posting strong YTD gains. $IHF Often times the best performers to start the year wind up as the best performers for the full year. The sector did will under the last Trump presidency and has been flat for the last [--] years. $OSCR is my favorite pick of the bunch at 6.6x/5.0x the [----] base/bull case EPS estimates. It should trade at 12-15x in my view"
X Link 2025-01-14T23:29Z [----] followers, 21.9K engagements
"Just gonna leave this here sector is trading [--] turns below their 5-yr medians and [--] turns below their 10-yr medians. $ELV $CNC $HON $OSCR"
X Link 2025-01-15T15:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Damn Jerry Rice put up [----] yds and [--] TD when he was [--] years old in [----] Crazy"
X Link 2025-01-16T10:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$UNH posted an ugly EPS beat this morning mostly due to a lower tax rate. Slight top line miss. Although Optum insight beat nicely which may have positive read throughs for Oscar+ at $OSCR. UNH -4% in pre-market. Will likely drag down the rest of the sector $IHF Ill be keeping a close eye on $OSCR. Yesterday it closed above the 50DMA for the first time in 6-weeks. Will bulls step up to defend the breakout after the morning sell-off"
X Link 2025-01-16T14:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
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