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[@toy59496](/creator/twitter/toy59496)
"$KLR.AX : the 8000% story I'm still trying to figure this one out. Transfers on X Aug XX were all between related entities. Essentially ownership was transferred from a Chinese corporate entity (Yitai) to Mr Yang who is presumably a citizen. Mr Yang obtained the controlling interest in $KLR for USD$1. He also was assigned the $4.5m debt that $KLR owed to Yitai so that debt is now owed to Mr Yang. This seems to be confusing debt with equity. If he obtained equity it should have been at market value which is around $2.5m at the time of transfer. As Chairman it is very problematic that this is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1957774889022287992) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-08-19T12:01Z XXX followers, 1438 engagements


"$KLR.AX Excellent article by Tom Richardson on Livewire. The plot thickens as $KLR was not the only potentially pumped stock on that day but $AOA was as well. AND THEY HAVE THE SAME ADDRESS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1957985498749890899) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-08-20T01:58Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"$PBH.AX : Mixi at $XXXX Mixi has increased its offer to $XXXX which in my view makes it far more attractive than $BBT scrip. Mixi had previously indicated that they reserved the right to increase the offer from $XXXX but given the uncertainties as to whether they will complete the takeover with such a small holding I sold on the market at $XXXXX. I thought that was rather clever of me but I don't feel so clever now although there still remains a risk Mixi will not prevail. I am in good company as I noticed Harvest Lane had a bet each way and sold some of its stake on the market and accepted"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1958321467931988290) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-08-21T00:13Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"SmartKarma : Utility Does anybody use SmartKarma as a source to identify and analyse merger arbitrage options It's pretty pricey at US $XX per month. The main analyst seems to be Arun George. Advantage is they cover throughout the Asia Pacific for those that have an interest in both the Australian and HK market for example. If people don't use this to identify opportunities particularly overseas please suggest what other resources you use In Australia I typically just scan the ASX announcements after our previous discussion on this matter but I'm not sure it's that straightforward in Hong"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1967735112365396203) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-09-15T23:39Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"ASX200 Rebalance Arbitrage So today is the last day prior to the quarterly rebalance on Monday. It does look like there is positive movement in eight of the nine new additions. The passive funds do have to invest whether they like to or not and preferably not too early to avoid tracking error unless they have hedged their risk potentially by outsourcing to a hedge fund. Relative to the ASX200 as a whole which is up XXX% the upside with an equal holding of all nine items is about XXX% so you get three times the yield as a day trade. I'm not typically a day trader but for those that do this is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1968851673453125929) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-09-19T01:36Z XXX followers, 1039 engagements


"$CSL.AX : Closing Auction I've been educating myself on the closing auction with thanks to some of you. Between 4:00 p.m. and 4:10 p.m. the ASX looks at what price will maximise the volume of shares traded and set that price as the closing price. Significant purchasers like to move large blocks of shares at that time because it is anonymous as the order does not come up on the lit book/trading depth. I have been told that XX% of the entire days volume for any one stock is typically executed at that time. The closing auction is particularly useful because unlike the opening auction an order"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1970737342878204224) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-09-24T06:29Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"$LEN & $LEN.B : Liquidity Premium Some of you will have read my posts on trying to define the liquidity premium on entering and exiting small capitalisation stocks on the ASX eg $BSA.AX. The US provides an interesting experiment because it has dual class shares unlike the ASX where one vote per share is mandatory. Take Lennar Corporation a major home builder and real estate corporation. It has two classes of shares that have identical economic entitlements eg dividends but unequal voting with the $LEN.B shares having XX times the vote of the $LEN share. Now you would expect that would give a"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1972276913344541146) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-09-28T12:27Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"Thank you- I'll look him up. The difficulty with $LEN v $LEN.B is that you can't really arbitrage the difference because one is not convertible to the other even though they have the same economic claim cheques on the company. I see Berkshire Hathaway has bought both classes in the last quarter. You would think if there was some sort of arbitrage advantage he would have bought only one class ($LEN.B given the 10x votes) and not the other. But it is interesting that liquidity alone and particularly the effective massive passive flows can result in such differences. Ultimately the more passive"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1972429872783061164) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-09-28T22:35Z XXX followers, XX engagements


"$TOE.AX : Arbitrage $ISOU Scrip for Scrip acquisition by $ISOU at the ratio of XXXXX ISOU shares for each $TOE share. Current Value = US$10.57 x XXXX currency conversion x XXXXX scripscrip= AUD$0.586 = AUD$0.59 You are entirely exposed to market risk and acquiring company doesn't generate revenue and will probably dilute if you hold. Technically you should buy $TOE and short $ISOU which also protects against market risk but increases your losses in the setting of breach. (This theory of short the acquirer has not worked with $PDI.AX which continues to go upwards for reasons I do not"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1977589500479209771) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-10-13T04:17Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"@blackswan2023 If my platform had the capacity to short I would definitely short $DRO. My views on the technology and management are on record"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1977885802509267206) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-10-13T23:54Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"$TOE.AX : Updated Current Value = US$10.44 x XXXX currency conversion x XXXXX scrip = AUD$0.57. Current price $XXXX. The spread has now significantly narrowed. Keep in mind you have both systemic market risk and currency risk as well as the usual deal risks so this is a less well-defined arbitrage and so you want a higher margin of safety. A higher margin than is currently on offer in my view"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1978601452424863894) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-10-15T23:18Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"@blackswan2023 $DRO.AX : I've been like a broken record on this one saying that it is overpriced. Pity I didn't short but I am not an expert in shorting"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1978612503870656514) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-10-16T00:02Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"Selfwealth: it's the only advantage of the platform which is otherwise incredibly tedious. Selfwealth doesn't have iceberg orders and other advantages like Interactive Brokers which means the hidden cost here is an increased spread. You should not use Selfwealth for HK or US trading as the currency conversion penalty and fees are prohibitive"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1979155565323653342) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-10-17T12:00Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"Yes I agree rec Woodside - and I did the same a little while ago- recent news has been good news for them as well so I've been a little surprised it has continued to descend and I'm XX% down but will hold. Any commodity is a risk factor given they are highly cyclical. More than once I've thought it can't possibly go lower and it goes lower. I got burnt with IGO for example. The exception is oil which effectively has a lower limit of around $XX per barrel due to the OPEC cartel. I notice PetroChina continues to be significantly undervalued relative to its peers around the world. It was a"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1979509650430349537) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-10-18T11:27Z XXX followers, XX engagements


"@wilson_trades Problem is if you are under XX you can't own shares in your own name in Australia but can beneficially own them usually a parent. That has all sorts of tedious tax implications"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1979864157064503354) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-10-19T10:56Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"@rubicon59 @puppyeh1 Interesting to compare $EDU.AX with IDP Education ($IEL.AX)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1980084764599304215) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-10-20T01:32Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"@whirlybard @FFailings Precisely. FX total ripoff as they use Philips Capital who charges you effectively X% of your capital and a fee on your dividends. It's criminal"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1980092273615679890) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-10-20T02:02Z XXX followers, XX engagements


"$BSL.AX & $WDS.AX I was running with a pretty good profit margin on these but now they have suddenly turned to crap. I thought $BSL had some protection against US tariffs while $WDS appears to be getting approvals eg North West Shelf. If I exit I will crystallise a significant loss. I see the descent of $BSL is particularly acute. Transient vs Permanent"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1977885391337517510) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-10-13T23:53Z XXX followers, 1144 engagements


"$MYX.AX : Analysis of Judgement I've just spent the last X hours reading the comprehensive judgement of XXX paragraphs. X. The Supreme Court of NSW is amazing in managing to deliver a judgement in a single day. X. The judgement is remarkably similar to the lucid analysis of both Fabreres @fabreres and Luke Cummings of Harvest Lane. I put Luke's article below for reference because so many of the points that he made are reflected in the judgement. X. The judgement is devastating for Cosette in terms of the credibility of their witnesses. While an appeal to the NSWCA may be inevitable this is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1978407320054010001) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-10-15T10:27Z XXX followers, 20K engagements


"My vote is selfwealth or stake for Australian shares as they are chess sponsored. I vote interactive brokers for anything international because it uses wise as a back end so the currency exchange fees are competitive.compare that to selfwealth where the turn backwards and forwards gives you about a X% drag"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1979847853335044410) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-10-19T09:51Z XXX followers, 1168 engagements


"Well spotted. I like the platform on CommSec just like you but I don't trade stocks on it. It is useful to look at announcements because selfwealth does not give you real time. I used to trade with it all the time before my sizing increased the commissions. For a buy and hold person it's fine which is probably why it's so popular. I do have an options account with CommSec which I occasionally use although being the only person on the planet that shorted Afterpay made me pause on that one. But I do wonder if Interactive Brokers has a better options facility with better spreads but I haven't"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1980006816781402543) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-10-19T20:23Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"@longarmlopez Is that with Stake With CHESS system the brokerage does not hold the shares they are held by the share registry eg computershare It makes little difference where you trade except for the costs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1980016679896981820) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-10-19T21:02Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"Other posters here have pointed out that a custodian service keeps all shares in trust so it is unaffected by insolvency of the brokerage. Interactive brokers there's a custodian service for example. It would be interesting to actually see how this has been managed in practise with insolvency of a brokerage. Most international shares appeared to be under a custodian model in any event"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1980019706242449738) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-10-19T21:14Z XXX followers, XX engagements


"@Mattlewy13 @asxpeasant That's very interesting to know because if one social healthcare system adopts it then the economics probably make sense and there will be a cascade effect"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1980568537883386069) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-10-21T09:35Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"$TOE.AX : Progress Arbitrage I mentioned this arbitrage two days ago. It's been going well since. Current Value = US$10.82 x XXXX currency conversion x XXXXX scrip = AUD$0.60. Still undervalued significantly BUT you have both market and currency risk. I have only a modest allocation for that reason and because I prefer cash offers. It's worth pointing out that the current market is unusual in the usually you go long the acquired and short the acquirer to remove systemic market risk from the arbitrage. But in the current hot market excess returns are being found by going along both acquirer"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1978357704633807277) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-10-15T07:10Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"$MYX.AX : Revised Entry A few people have contacted me as to whether there is anything still left in this arbitrage. I think it depends on the level of today's recovery. The deal has returned to slightly more risky than a conventional arbitrage and you can set your own level as to what you think the relative risks to completion are now. However I would suggest anything under $XXXX gives sufficient room for a negotiated settlement and accounts for the small risks of appeal and FIRB. I am already at my maximum allocation so in good conscience can't increase my holdings. This is not financial"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1978560335935381570) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-10-15T20:35Z XXX followers, 9885 engagements


"Brokerage: CommSec I hope none of you are using CommSec for trading.look at the profit relative to revenue reported in the AFR today"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1979833662184305130) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-10-19T08:55Z XXX followers, 5657 engagements


"$WDS.AX : Valuation Perhaps some of you commodity experts can explain why Woodside is lagging. It's a red on my portfolio despite: X. Valuation appears cheap X. Fat dividends X. Good news on North West Shelf X. Biggest gas producer X. Domestic and Asian (Korea Japan) fighting for the gas. X. Competition ($STO.AX) in disarray. What am I missing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1980413677242388510) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-10-20T23:19Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"I'm wondering whether I should double down I already have about 50000 shares but I'm down 8%. On the other hand Warren Buffett says if something that generates value drops then it just becomes cheaper to purchase. I do notice that it's quarterly production has actually gone down modestly relative to a year ago notwithstanding the earning upgrade"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1980768597904642226) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-10-21T22:50Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"Thanks Travis Yes I had a look at the shareholder list for As far as I can establish it looks like this. (Perseus) XXXX% Zijin Mining XXX% (SEHK 2899) Lund Family XXX% (Canada) Helikilon Investments XXXX% (Hedge Fund UK Federico Riggio) Blackrock XXXXX% Although hard to know how I updated these all are. We immediately eliminate Helikon and BlackRock who will not be buyers. Perseus did say they had no interest in an acquisition. That leaves Zijin and the Lund family. Interesting but nobody has made any moves at the stage. It occurs to me that the other reason there may have been disparate"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1975151484653412494) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-10-06T10:49Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"@GeoffWilsonWAM Geoff- even those of us who weren't affected (yet) were terrified by the tax on *unrealised* gains. You let that happen in super and soon it's part of the regular tax system. What are you going to turn your attention to now Geoff"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1977837932708061400) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-10-13T20:44Z XXX followers, 1030 engagements


"$LRV.AX - @SniffRocks pointed out $UAMY diluting and share price dropping so it's not competitive at the current level as scrip for scrip. Crunching the numbers: Deal = Ratio X $UAMY per XXX $LRV LRV = X x $UAMY / XXX x FX LRV = X x $XXXXX / XXX x XXXX LRV = $XXXX So people are paying $XXXX for $XXXX value"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1980134675265015937) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-10-20T04:51Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"$MYX.AX : Goldman Sachs Sold Perhaps someone can interpret this announcement for me As far as I can tell it seems that Goldman Sachs Australia (GSAU) has borrowed stock from HSBC nominees and has now given them back. But do we know if they shorted $MYX or went long or can't we tell Always good to see what the big boys and girls are doing. s608 Corporations Act"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1980757884939256146) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-10-21T22:07Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"@blackswan2023 $OXY was a big winner there for a time and now I'm back to near break even. I purchased PetroChina at the same time and I'm now up 30%. Chinese market remains vastly undervalued"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1980770679516721448) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-10-21T22:58Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"$MYX.AX : Frustration through a Stale Vote I have been thinking about why the $MYX price of $XXXX is so far below the Scheme price of $XXXX despite the recent Supreme Court win for Mayne over Cosette. I think one reason is the risk of a "stale vote" which is discussed by KWM. The Supreme Court decided in favour of Mayne on the 15th of October. Cosette has XX days to appeal to the NSWCA which brings us to the 12th of November. On appeal the SC judgement is immediately stayed. It is notable that despite the passage of time therevhas currently been no appeal by Cossette. The scheme will"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1980812409683210545) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-10-22T01:44Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"$EDU.AX : End Game It seems pretty obvious the end game here is a second successful attempt at a management buyout. By directing profits into share buy backs (10% of shares next XX months) we see management consolidating control without personally having to buy a single share on market. It's clearly more efficient to use your earnings instead. ABD Holdings Limited is the corporate entity of CEO Adam Davis who is increasing control without having to personally purchase any additional shares on market. If management holds their shares but other shareholders sell into the buyback the transfer of"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1979691609982943575) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-10-18T23:30Z XXX followers, 3367 engagements


"$MYX.AX : Frustration through a Stale Vote I have been thinking about why the $MYX price of $XXXX is so far below the Scheme price of $XXXX despite the recent Supreme Court win for Mayne over Cosette. I think one reason is the risk of a "stale vote" which is discussed by KWM. The Supreme Court decided in favour of Mayne on the 15th of October. Cosette has XX days to appeal to the NSWCA which brings us to the 12th of November. On appeal the SC judgement is immediately stayed. It is notable that despite the passage of time there has currently been no appeal by Cossette. The scheme will"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1980816786548486416) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-10-22T02:01Z XXX followers, XX engagements