[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.] [@toy59496](/creator/twitter/toy59496) "Yes and quite a few people sold out after that announcement I noticed so lucky we are both contrarian. I think $IFL were obliged to say something because they said it would be wrapped up in X weeks on the 1st of July. Tick Tock. I don't think the acquirer is in a hurry given the indicative timetable looks about X months which definitely should be considered when determining yield and arbitrageurs discovering that are probably tapering their entry price explains today's price action not to mention some of the MAC conditions related to performance. I have a holding but I'm not going to add to"  [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) on [X](/post/tweet/1947502796447818097) 2025-07-22 03:43:44 UTC XX followers, XXX engagements "$PBH.AX : Off Market Mixi v $BETR So what is the intelligent play here Neither potential acquirer can implement a scheme as they have blocking stakes. Both are attempting off-market takeovers. Do you cash in your holding for the obviously superior Mixi cash offer and move on to the next arbitrage opportunity Or do you hold and become a minority holder within a Mixi controlled entity and anticipate being bought out at a higher price I noticed with $PGH there was an arguement to simply stay even when it got delisted and this may be a similar play"  [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) on [X](/post/tweet/1947798404723261510) 2025-07-22 23:18:22 UTC XX followers, XX engagements "@NickLagarrigue Unfortunate $ELS did not do a capital raise from equity holders (held) so they could benefit"  [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) on [X](/post/tweet/1947808832639668271) 2025-07-22 23:59:48 UTC XX followers, XX engagements "$MYX vs Cosette Arbitrage: I accidentally deleted my previous post but will repeat the highlights. The numbers must do the talking. The main issue in dispute between $MYX and Cosette is whether the "Maintainable EBITDA" (negative $10.76m) has been breached so giving cause for Cosette to terminate the acquisition. The lawyers talk about the necessity to give a clause in a contract "work to do" and given the only release of information between signing the scheme and implementation of that scheme is the Q3 FY25 then that release MUST be considered the "work". The problem is that while the"  [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) on [X](/post/tweet/1947164624568344882) 2025-07-21 05:19:57 UTC XX followers, XXX engagements "@IggyOnInvesting That's fascinating: I always assumed the independent report was hardly independent as it had a preordained purpose of supporting any decision of the management who engaged them. But not today"  [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) on [X](/post/tweet/1947618664725025243) 2025-07-22 11:24:09 UTC XX followers, XXX engagements "Did you hold that as well @RonShamgar You seem to hold a lot of *prospective* takeover targets which for most of us is a loser's game (certainly is for me) but clearly not for you. I processed the SID of $MPA through @Grok to interrogate weaknesses and it even estimated a reasonable arbitrage price given the risks. Harvest Lane (@BaileyHLAM) you may be taken over by an AI yet"  [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) on [X](/post/tweet/1947450771567743254) 2025-07-22 00:17:00 UTC XX followers, XXX engagements "@puppyeh1 @a_living_fossil Especially with the current socialist government. I was so concerned I started reading the books"  [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) on [X](/post/tweet/1947866593457017083) 2025-07-23 03:49:20 UTC XX followers, XX engagements "@LukeyTrags When I hear stories from the coal companies that they seem to be printing money. But in actual fact I have already entered substantially in both $WHC and $YAL but did not pick the bottom"  [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) on [X](/post/tweet/1947165462217085377) 2025-07-21 05:23:17 UTC XX followers, XXX engagements "@puppyeh1 On a related topic I missed an early entry into $ASK as I confused it with $ABG both named Abacus and both acquisition targets. Irritating"  [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) on [X](/post/tweet/1944953873111900194) 2025-07-15 02:55:13 UTC XX followers, XXX engagements "Fascinating that there is a temporal association between sales of Taleb's "Black Swan" and serious declines in the SP500. That correlation tells us more about behavioural psychology than any appreciation of Taleb's non-normative long tailed distributions because if you purchase after the event you are toooooo late. And yes I have several books in the Incerto series. I'm happy to proofread any attempt to make it more accessible to school children Nassim.or to adults for that matter.you know it's like eating tough steak. You love it but it's hard work"  [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) on [X](/post/tweet/1947839413641474120) 2025-07-23 02:01:19 UTC XX followers, XX engagements "$IFL Takeover at $XXXX I think the market had given up on this one fortunately I had not and entered in a big way just like Ron @R0nShamgar although I have to say I was navel gazing the last few days. Sometimes the risk reward is not what the market thinks"  [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) on [X](/post/tweet/1947429914946506970) 2025-07-21 22:54:07 UTC XX followers, XXX engagements "@BaileyHLAM @hurdle_rate @HarvestLaneAM Thanks Ben. Yes it makes perfect sense at a portfolio level. Nice article in the AFR. I was reviewing some fascinating involvement by Harvest Lane with Birddog technology.$BDT. Delisting special situation on a very low market capitalisation target. Your work"  [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) on [X](/post/tweet/1946079290338279484) 2025-07-18 05:27:13 UTC XX followers, XX engagements "@RonShamgar We aren't out of the woods yet @RonShamgar as the SID has another one of those bullshit MAC clauses that have caused $MYX much trouble. Take a look"  [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) on [X](/post/tweet/1947432679764594945) 2025-07-21 23:05:07 UTC XX followers, XXX engagements "I agree people don't like coal and that substantially interferes with the valuation which is entirely unreasonable particularly given metallurgical coal is hard to replace. I made a lot of money on the last coal cycle and am watching to see whether or not we are now in the upturn. I recollect another post which talked about the divergence between coal spot prices and the valuation of coal companies"  [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) on [X](/post/tweet/1947163504118759475) 2025-07-21 05:15:30 UTC XX followers, XXX engagements "$PEK.AX acquisition $XXXXX This seems to be going under the radar but rare earths miner $PEK is being acquired by a Chinese State backed entity. Even the announcement seems to avoid the usual headers like binding proposals and so forth which usually makes arbitrageurs wake up. I looked at the scheme of arrangement deed and in no place can I find mention of the FIRB. Nor has there been any mention of the FIRB in any of the announcements by $PEK.AX I would have thought acquiring a significant rare earth player by a Chinese state backed entity under the current concern about western access to"  [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) on [X](/post/tweet/1947227414314250532) 2025-07-21 09:29:27 UTC XX followers, XX engagements "Well that's unfortunate because I just went in to both $FMG and $MIN. Give me your rationale for exiting. I note $FMG has now abandoned it's ill-fated green energy preoccupation which was sucking capital that could have been distributed to shareholders and has also reported significantly greater volumes than previously. Having said that there are obvious problems with the management of $MIN and I do notice the short interest is very high"  [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) on [X](/post/tweet/1948198703594156534) 2025-07-24 01:49:01 UTC XX followers, XX engagements "I appreciate this excellent review Lu. I have a very large holding in $MYX which I increased after the purported termination which was fortunate as I am roughly break even at this point. I am surprised Harvest Lane reduced their position as they are an advocate of closure but clearly the risk management and evolution of the case has got them concerned. Despite my large holding I have always been a little concerned that $MYX has not been forthright in its releases to the ASX and withheld important information like the correspondence received from Cosette. If they had taken that same approach"  [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) on [X](/post/tweet/1946411959374811369) 2025-07-19 03:29:08 UTC XX followers, XXX engagements
[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]
@toy59496
"Yes and quite a few people sold out after that announcement I noticed so lucky we are both contrarian. I think $IFL were obliged to say something because they said it would be wrapped up in X weeks on the 1st of July. Tick Tock. I don't think the acquirer is in a hurry given the indicative timetable looks about X months which definitely should be considered when determining yield and arbitrageurs discovering that are probably tapering their entry price explains today's price action not to mention some of the MAC conditions related to performance. I have a holding but I'm not going to add to"
@toy59496 on X 2025-07-22 03:43:44 UTC XX followers, XXX engagements
"$PBH.AX : Off Market Mixi v $BETR So what is the intelligent play here Neither potential acquirer can implement a scheme as they have blocking stakes. Both are attempting off-market takeovers. Do you cash in your holding for the obviously superior Mixi cash offer and move on to the next arbitrage opportunity Or do you hold and become a minority holder within a Mixi controlled entity and anticipate being bought out at a higher price I noticed with $PGH there was an arguement to simply stay even when it got delisted and this may be a similar play" @toy59496 on X 2025-07-22 23:18:22 UTC XX followers, XX engagements
"@NickLagarrigue Unfortunate $ELS did not do a capital raise from equity holders (held) so they could benefit" @toy59496 on X 2025-07-22 23:59:48 UTC XX followers, XX engagements
"$MYX vs Cosette Arbitrage: I accidentally deleted my previous post but will repeat the highlights. The numbers must do the talking. The main issue in dispute between $MYX and Cosette is whether the "Maintainable EBITDA" (negative $10.76m) has been breached so giving cause for Cosette to terminate the acquisition. The lawyers talk about the necessity to give a clause in a contract "work to do" and given the only release of information between signing the scheme and implementation of that scheme is the Q3 FY25 then that release MUST be considered the "work". The problem is that while the" @toy59496 on X 2025-07-21 05:19:57 UTC XX followers, XXX engagements
"@IggyOnInvesting That's fascinating: I always assumed the independent report was hardly independent as it had a preordained purpose of supporting any decision of the management who engaged them. But not today" @toy59496 on X 2025-07-22 11:24:09 UTC XX followers, XXX engagements
"Did you hold that as well @RonShamgar You seem to hold a lot of prospective takeover targets which for most of us is a loser's game (certainly is for me) but clearly not for you. I processed the SID of $MPA through @Grok to interrogate weaknesses and it even estimated a reasonable arbitrage price given the risks. Harvest Lane (@BaileyHLAM) you may be taken over by an AI yet" @toy59496 on X 2025-07-22 00:17:00 UTC XX followers, XXX engagements
"@puppyeh1 @a_living_fossil Especially with the current socialist government. I was so concerned I started reading the books" @toy59496 on X 2025-07-23 03:49:20 UTC XX followers, XX engagements
"@LukeyTrags When I hear stories from the coal companies that they seem to be printing money. But in actual fact I have already entered substantially in both $WHC and $YAL but did not pick the bottom" @toy59496 on X 2025-07-21 05:23:17 UTC XX followers, XXX engagements
"@puppyeh1 On a related topic I missed an early entry into $ASK as I confused it with $ABG both named Abacus and both acquisition targets. Irritating" @toy59496 on X 2025-07-15 02:55:13 UTC XX followers, XXX engagements
"Fascinating that there is a temporal association between sales of Taleb's "Black Swan" and serious declines in the SP500. That correlation tells us more about behavioural psychology than any appreciation of Taleb's non-normative long tailed distributions because if you purchase after the event you are toooooo late. And yes I have several books in the Incerto series. I'm happy to proofread any attempt to make it more accessible to school children Nassim.or to adults for that matter.you know it's like eating tough steak. You love it but it's hard work" @toy59496 on X 2025-07-23 02:01:19 UTC XX followers, XX engagements
"$IFL Takeover at $XXXX I think the market had given up on this one fortunately I had not and entered in a big way just like Ron @R0nShamgar although I have to say I was navel gazing the last few days. Sometimes the risk reward is not what the market thinks" @toy59496 on X 2025-07-21 22:54:07 UTC XX followers, XXX engagements
"@BaileyHLAM @hurdle_rate @HarvestLaneAM Thanks Ben. Yes it makes perfect sense at a portfolio level. Nice article in the AFR. I was reviewing some fascinating involvement by Harvest Lane with Birddog technology.$BDT. Delisting special situation on a very low market capitalisation target. Your work" @toy59496 on X 2025-07-18 05:27:13 UTC XX followers, XX engagements
"@RonShamgar We aren't out of the woods yet @RonShamgar as the SID has another one of those bullshit MAC clauses that have caused $MYX much trouble. Take a look" @toy59496 on X 2025-07-21 23:05:07 UTC XX followers, XXX engagements
"I agree people don't like coal and that substantially interferes with the valuation which is entirely unreasonable particularly given metallurgical coal is hard to replace. I made a lot of money on the last coal cycle and am watching to see whether or not we are now in the upturn. I recollect another post which talked about the divergence between coal spot prices and the valuation of coal companies" @toy59496 on X 2025-07-21 05:15:30 UTC XX followers, XXX engagements
"$PEK.AX acquisition $XXXXX This seems to be going under the radar but rare earths miner $PEK is being acquired by a Chinese State backed entity. Even the announcement seems to avoid the usual headers like binding proposals and so forth which usually makes arbitrageurs wake up. I looked at the scheme of arrangement deed and in no place can I find mention of the FIRB. Nor has there been any mention of the FIRB in any of the announcements by $PEK.AX I would have thought acquiring a significant rare earth player by a Chinese state backed entity under the current concern about western access to" @toy59496 on X 2025-07-21 09:29:27 UTC XX followers, XX engagements
"Well that's unfortunate because I just went in to both $FMG and $MIN. Give me your rationale for exiting. I note $FMG has now abandoned it's ill-fated green energy preoccupation which was sucking capital that could have been distributed to shareholders and has also reported significantly greater volumes than previously. Having said that there are obvious problems with the management of $MIN and I do notice the short interest is very high" @toy59496 on X 2025-07-24 01:49:01 UTC XX followers, XX engagements
"I appreciate this excellent review Lu. I have a very large holding in $MYX which I increased after the purported termination which was fortunate as I am roughly break even at this point. I am surprised Harvest Lane reduced their position as they are an advocate of closure but clearly the risk management and evolution of the case has got them concerned. Despite my large holding I have always been a little concerned that $MYX has not been forthright in its releases to the ASX and withheld important information like the correspondence received from Cosette. If they had taken that same approach" @toy59496 on X 2025-07-19 03:29:08 UTC XX followers, XXX engagements