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[@toy59496](/creator/twitter/toy59496)
"$TOE.AX : Arbitrage $ISOU Scrip for Scrip acquisition by $ISOU at the ratio of XXXXX ISOU shares for each $TOE share. Current Value = US$10.57 x XXXX currency conversion x XXXXX scripscrip= AUD$0.586 = AUD$0.59 You are entirely exposed to market risk and acquiring company doesn't generate revenue and will probably dilute if you hold. Technically you should buy $TOE and short $ISOU which also protects against market risk but increases your losses in the setting of breach. (This theory of short the acquirer has not worked with $PDI.AX which continues to go upwards for reasons I do not"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1977589500479209771) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-10-13T04:17Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"$MYX.AX : Analysis of Judgement I've just spent the last X hours reading the comprehensive judgement of XXX paragraphs. X. The Supreme Court of NSW is amazing in managing to deliver a judgement in a single day. X. The judgement is remarkably similar to the lucid analysis of both Fabreres @fabreres and Luke Cummings of Harvest Lane. I put Luke's article below for reference because so many of the points that he made are reflected in the judgement. X. The judgement is devastating for Cosette in terms of the credibility of their witnesses. While an appeal to the NSWCA may be inevitable this is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1978407320054010001) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-10-15T10:27Z XXX followers, 20.4K engagements


"$EDU.AX : End Game It seems pretty obvious the end game here is a second successful attempt at a management buyout. By directing profits into share buy backs (10% of shares next XX months) we see management consolidating control without personally having to buy a single share on market. It's clearly more efficient to use your earnings instead. ABD Holdings Limited is the corporate entity of CEO Adam Davis who is increasing control without having to personally purchase any additional shares on market. If management holds their shares but other shareholders sell into the buyback the transfer of"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1979691609982943575) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-10-18T23:30Z XXX followers, 3439 engagements


"$MYX.AX : Goldman Sachs Sold Perhaps someone can interpret this announcement for me As far as I can tell it seems that Goldman Sachs Australia (GSAU) has borrowed stock from HSBC nominees and has now given them back. But do we know if they shorted $MYX or went long or can't we tell Always good to see what the big boys and girls are doing. s608 Corporations Act"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1980757884939256146) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-10-21T22:07Z XXX followers, 1358 engagements


"@asxpeasant I read the financial statement and they lost my interest when I saw the $23m of share-based expenses eating up most of the equity capital. They have a good idea but will not be producing until next year"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1980881186449944783) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-10-22T06:17Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"$KLR.AX : the 8000% story I'm still trying to figure this one out. Transfers on X Aug XX were all between related entities. Essentially ownership was transferred from a Chinese corporate entity (Yitai) to Mr Yang who is presumably a citizen. Mr Yang obtained the controlling interest in $KLR for USD$1. He also was assigned the $4.5m debt that $KLR owed to Yitai so that debt is now owed to Mr Yang. This seems to be confusing debt with equity. If he obtained equity it should have been at market value which is around $2.5m at the time of transfer. As Chairman it is very problematic that this is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1957774889022287992) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-08-19T12:01Z XXX followers, 1439 engagements


"$KLR.AX Excellent article by Tom Richardson on Livewire. The plot thickens as $KLR was not the only potentially pumped stock on that day but $AOA was as well. AND THEY HAVE THE SAME ADDRESS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1957985498749890899) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-08-20T01:58Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"$PBH.AX : Mixi at $XXXX Mixi has increased its offer to $XXXX which in my view makes it far more attractive than $BBT scrip. Mixi had previously indicated that they reserved the right to increase the offer from $XXXX but given the uncertainties as to whether they will complete the takeover with such a small holding I sold on the market at $XXXXX. I thought that was rather clever of me but I don't feel so clever now although there still remains a risk Mixi will not prevail. I am in good company as I noticed Harvest Lane had a bet each way and sold some of its stake on the market and accepted"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1958321467931988290) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-08-21T00:13Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"$TOE.AX : Updated Current Value = US$10.44 x XXXX currency conversion x XXXXX scrip = AUD$0.57. Current price $XXXX. The spread has now significantly narrowed. Keep in mind you have both systemic market risk and currency risk as well as the usual deal risks so this is a less well-defined arbitrage and so you want a higher margin of safety. A higher margin than is currently on offer in my view"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1978601452424863894) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-10-15T23:18Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"My vote is selfwealth or stake for Australian shares as they are chess sponsored. I vote interactive brokers for anything international because it uses wise as a back end so the currency exchange fees are competitive.compare that to selfwealth where the turn backwards and forwards gives you about a X% drag"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1979847853335044410) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-10-19T09:51Z XXX followers, 1189 engagements


"Well spotted. I like the platform on CommSec just like you but I don't trade stocks on it. It is useful to look at announcements because selfwealth does not give you real time. I used to trade with it all the time before my sizing increased the commissions. For a buy and hold person it's fine which is probably why it's so popular. I do have an options account with CommSec which I occasionally use although being the only person on the planet that shorted Afterpay made me pause on that one. But I do wonder if Interactive Brokers has a better options facility with better spreads but I haven't"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1980006816781402543) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-10-19T20:23Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"Other posters here have pointed out that a custodian service keeps all shares in trust so it is unaffected by insolvency of the brokerage. Interactive brokers there's a custodian service for example. It would be interesting to actually see how this has been managed in practise with insolvency of a brokerage. Most international shares appeared to be under a custodian model in any event"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1980019706242449738) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-10-19T21:14Z XXX followers, XX engagements


"@whirlybard @FFailings Precisely. FX total ripoff as they use Philips Capital who charges you effectively X% of your capital and a fee on your dividends. It's criminal"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1980092273615679890) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-10-20T02:02Z XXX followers, XX engagements


"$CSL.AX : Closing Auction I've been educating myself on the closing auction with thanks to some of you. Between 4:00 p.m. and 4:10 p.m. the ASX looks at what price will maximise the volume of shares traded and set that price as the closing price. Significant purchasers like to move large blocks of shares at that time because it is anonymous as the order does not come up on the lit book/trading depth. I have been told that XX% of the entire days volume for any one stock is typically executed at that time. The closing auction is particularly useful because unlike the opening auction an order"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1970737342878204224) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-09-24T06:29Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"$DMP : Exit A tale of two restaurants.I see a very big and busy pizza shop right next to Domino's. Not a single person in Domino's a crowd in the pizza shop next door. That was sufficient for me to sell my holding at a loss"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1973577153079025791) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-10-02T02:33Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"Thanks Travis Yes I had a look at the shareholder list for As far as I can establish it looks like this. (Perseus) XXXX% Zijin Mining XXX% (SEHK 2899) Lund Family XXX% (Canada) Helikilon Investments XXXX% (Hedge Fund UK Federico Riggio) Blackrock XXXXX% Although hard to know how I updated these all are. We immediately eliminate Helikon and BlackRock who will not be buyers. Perseus did say they had no interest in an acquisition. That leaves Zijin and the Lund family. Interesting but nobody has made any moves at the stage. It occurs to me that the other reason there may have been disparate"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1975151484653412494) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-10-06T10:49Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"@GeoffWilsonWAM Geoff- even those of us who weren't affected (yet) were terrified by the tax on *unrealised* gains. You let that happen in super and soon it's part of the regular tax system. What are you going to turn your attention to now Geoff"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1977837932708061400) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-10-13T20:44Z XXX followers, 1032 engagements


"$INR are two different entities on ASX and NASDAQ aren't they Given how much many of us have lost on lithium and given its in the dirt under my feet when I go out the front door it's going to be hard to reinvest in that one. Rare earths aren't that rare just widely dispersed and difficult to extract. Look at $IGO.AX and the layered corporate on a corporate arrangement where Tianqi has only XX% equity but total control of the world's biggest lithium mine. They managed that as they have the technology. The real battle is about the technology. Meanwhile my kids are learning Mandarin"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1977841166382203008) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-10-13T20:57Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"$TOE.AX : Progress Arbitrage I mentioned this arbitrage two days ago. It's been going well since. Current Value = US$10.82 x XXXX currency conversion x XXXXX scrip = AUD$0.60. Still undervalued significantly BUT you have both market and currency risk. I have only a modest allocation for that reason and because I prefer cash offers. It's worth pointing out that the current market is unusual in the usually you go long the acquired and short the acquirer to remove systemic market risk from the arbitrage. But in the current hot market excess returns are being found by going along both acquirer"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1978357704633807277) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-10-15T07:10Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"$MYX.AX : Revised Entry A few people have contacted me as to whether there is anything still left in this arbitrage. I think it depends on the level of today's recovery. The deal has returned to slightly more risky than a conventional arbitrage and you can set your own level as to what you think the relative risks to completion are now. However I would suggest anything under $XXXX gives sufficient room for a negotiated settlement and accounts for the small risks of appeal and FIRB. I am already at my maximum allocation so in good conscience can't increase my holdings. This is not financial"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1978560335935381570) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-10-15T20:35Z XXX followers, 9931 engagements


"Selfwealth: it's the only advantage of the platform which is otherwise incredibly tedious. Selfwealth doesn't have iceberg orders and other advantages like Interactive Brokers which means the hidden cost here is an increased spread. You should not use Selfwealth for HK or US trading as the currency conversion penalty and fees are prohibitive"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1979155565323653342) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-10-17T12:00Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"@longarmlopez Is that with Stake With CHESS system the brokerage does not hold the shares they are held by the share registry eg computershare It makes little difference where you trade except for the costs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1980016679896981820) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-10-19T21:02Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"@rubicon59 @puppyeh1 Interesting to compare $EDU.AX with IDP Education ($IEL.AX)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1980084764599304215) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-10-20T01:32Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"That's very interesting thank you for that comment I was hoping for some feedback. It's almost like reading the insurers you do catastrophe insurance in that they have a large float but an unknown outlay which can occur somewhat unpredictably. This seems like the inversion because you put the money in front end and derive periodic income which is somewhat unpredictable given it is dependant on litigation outcomes. Establishing the present value of the return on these outlays must be statistical. I can see why interest rates affect the present value because the carry could have been used in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1980525378428105129) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-10-21T06:43Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"@Mattlewy13 @asxpeasant That's very interesting to know because if one social healthcare system adopts it then the economics probably make sense and there will be a cascade effect"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1980568537883386069) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-10-21T09:35Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"$MYX.AX : Frustration through a Stale Vote I have been thinking about why the $MYX price of $XXXX is so far below the Scheme price of $XXXX despite the recent Supreme Court win for Mayne over Cosette. I think one reason is the risk of a "stale vote" which is discussed by KWM. The Supreme Court decided in favour of Mayne on the 15th of October. Cosette has XX days to appeal to the NSWCA which brings us to the 12th of November. On appeal the SC judgement is immediately stayed. It is notable that despite the passage of time therevhas currently been no appeal by Cossette. The scheme will"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1980812409683210545) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-10-22T01:44Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"I don't have a view on $GQG.AX although Rajiv Jain is an intelligent operator. I generally do not invest in fund managers because it's one step removed from managing my own money. Nobody manages my money but me because of a number of reasons: X. If they need my money they are obviously not good at making their own. X. There is asymmetric optionality in the sense that if I win they win if I lose they win with the incentive structures so I never believe they are truly aligned. X. Even the best and most honest operators like Warren Buffett still made a significantly greater amount than his"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1980815933049565463) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-10-22T01:58Z XXX followers, XX engagements


"I don't think I provided too many insights on Woodside. It turns out I actually did have quite a significant holding in $PBR on the NYSE and I decided to exit because I didn't understand the jurisdiction and economics very well and i was running at a loss. The problem with a lot of these oil and gas companies is that it's quite localised because you have to not only produce it at a reasonable cost but transport it to where it is required. Most of the oil seems to be used locally. The upside is that with OPEC there will always be a floor price unlike other commodities which you think cannot go"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1980890673080582486) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-10-22T06:55Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"SmartKarma : Utility Does anybody use SmartKarma as a source to identify and analyse merger arbitrage options It's pretty pricey at US $XX per month. The main analyst seems to be Arun George. Advantage is they cover throughout the Asia Pacific for those that have an interest in both the Australian and HK market for example. If people don't use this to identify opportunities particularly overseas please suggest what other resources you use In Australia I typically just scan the ASX announcements after our previous discussion on this matter but I'm not sure it's that straightforward in Hong"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1967735112365396203) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-09-15T23:39Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"Brokerage: CommSec I hope none of you are using CommSec for trading.look at the profit relative to revenue reported in the AFR today"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1979833662184305130) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-10-19T08:55Z XXX followers, 5732 engagements


"$WDS.AX : Valuation Perhaps some of you commodity experts can explain why Woodside is lagging. It's a red on my portfolio despite: X. Valuation appears cheap X. Fat dividends X. Good news on North West Shelf X. Biggest gas producer X. Domestic and Asian (Korea Japan) fighting for the gas. X. Competition ($STO.AX) in disarray. What am I missing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1980413677242388510) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-10-20T23:19Z XXX followers, 1057 engagements


"$WDS.AX : Earnings Upgrade Woodside continues to look cheaper and cheaper on the metrics"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1980759449666220274) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-10-21T22:13Z XXX followers, 3701 engagements


"I'm wondering whether I should double down I already have about 50000 shares but I'm down 8%. On the other hand Warren Buffett says if something that generates value drops then it just becomes cheaper to purchase. I do notice that it's quarterly production has actually gone down modestly relative to a year ago notwithstanding the earning upgrade"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1980768597904642226) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-10-21T22:50Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"@blackswan2023 $OXY was a big winner there for a time and now I'm back to near break even. I purchased PetroChina at the same time and I'm now up 30%. Chinese market remains vastly undervalued"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1980770679516721448) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-10-21T22:58Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"I think the hot copper poster is correct and I include relevant paragraphs from the various judgements from Yowie v Keybridge. To quote J Leeming. "The Court of Appeal can and will provide extreme expedition in an appropriate case and the fact that this dispute is between two listed companies one of which had made a takeover offer for the other which is open for another four weeks is an example of such a case." at X And further. "Ordinarily filing a notice of appeal six days after the final judgment would be regarded as commendably expeditious. As I pointed out during the hearing this is not"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1980870960925536585) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-10-22T05:36Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"Exxon one of the biggest listed dividend producers of all time. But is grossly overpriced relative to PetroChina which remains cheap on a revenue multiple. I think Woodside is a bargain in plain sight. You sometimes get them much like coal was a couple of years ago. I'm seeing how far they descend but will increase my allocation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1980882098945957998) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-10-22T06:21Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"I agree which is why I have spent so much time working on $MYX as the margin is higher if the risk reward is appropriately established. I'm increasingly finding like you that the margins are so small on the confirmed deals because I think the big institutions are increasingly leveraging up with cheap money. For example if you look at $RPD.AX or $PSQ.AX it's just pointless"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1980963808886796735) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-10-22T11:45Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"$BSL.AX & $WDS.AX I was running with a pretty good profit margin on these but now they have suddenly turned to crap. I thought $BSL had some protection against US tariffs while $WDS appears to be getting approvals eg North West Shelf. If I exit I will crystallise a significant loss. I see the descent of $BSL is particularly acute. Transient vs Permanent"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1977885391337517510) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-10-13T23:53Z XXX followers, 1166 engagements


"$LRV.AX - @SniffRocks pointed out $UAMY diluting and share price dropping so it's not competitive at the current level as scrip for scrip. Crunching the numbers: Deal = Ratio X $UAMY per XXX $LRV LRV = X x $UAMY / XXX x FX LRV = X x $XXXXX / XXX x XXXX LRV = $XXXX So people are paying $XXXX for $XXXX value"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1980134675265015937) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-10-20T04:51Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"$MYX.AX : Frustration through a Stale Vote I have been thinking about why the $MYX price of $XXXX is so far below the Scheme price of $XXXX despite the recent Supreme Court win for Mayne over Cosette. I think one reason is the risk of a "stale vote" which is discussed by KWM. The Supreme Court decided in favour of Mayne on the 15th of October. Cosette has XX days to appeal to the NSWCA which brings us to the 12th of November. On appeal the SC judgement is immediately stayed. It is notable that despite the passage of time there has currently been no appeal by Cossette. The scheme will"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1980816786548486416) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-10-22T02:01Z XXX followers, 1389 engagements


"The interesting thing for me is that government projections on immigration are vastly less than the reality of legislative change that makes it easier for "students" to come to Australia. That's a very powerful graph. I make no value judgement about that at least not publically. But the financial reality is there appears to be significant tailwinds to $EDU.AX. Whether that means it's cheap at this time is a valuation question based on the quality of that growth"  
[X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1981309970592481651) [@toy59496](/creator/x/toy59496) 2025-10-23T10:41Z XXX followers, XXX engagements