[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.] #  @toy59496 Robin Dods Robin Dods posts on X about $qubax, $stoax, $nsrax, acquisition the most. They currently have XXX followers and XX posts still getting attention that total XXX engagements in the last XX hours. ### Engagements: XXX [#](/creator/twitter::1753177198268391424/interactions)  - X Week XXXXX -XX% - X Month XXXXXX -XX% - X Months XXXXXXX +134,281% ### Mentions: XX [#](/creator/twitter::1753177198268391424/posts_active)  - X Week XX -XX% - X Month XXX +5% - X Months XXX +38,400% ### Followers: XXX [#](/creator/twitter::1753177198268391424/followers)  - X Week XXX +1.80% - X Month XXX +12% - X Months XXX +6,667% ### CreatorRank: XXXXXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::1753177198268391424/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [finance](/list/finance) XXXXX% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) XXXX% [stocks](/list/stocks) XXXX% [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations) XXXX% [currencies](/list/currencies) XXXX% **Social topic influence** [$qubax](/topic/$qubax) #36, [$stoax](/topic/$stoax) #1487, [$nsrax](/topic/$nsrax) #1, [acquisition](/topic/acquisition) #1496, [to the](/topic/to-the) 4.08%, [$eduax](/topic/$eduax) #3, [all the](/topic/all-the) 4.08%, [$wdsax](/topic/$wdsax) 4.08%, [lack of](/topic/lack-of) 4.08%, [$8604t](/topic/$8604t) #51 **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@bowtiedstocks](/creator/undefined) [@kingfishcap](/creator/undefined) [@wambonecap](/creator/undefined) [@jasonphill40479](/creator/undefined) [@sniffrocks](/creator/undefined) [@doors2mj](/creator/undefined) [@fabreres](/creator/undefined) [@rexkwondoe](/creator/undefined) [@dealintcb](/creator/undefined) [@puppyeh1](/creator/undefined) [@urouchel](/creator/undefined) [@comlbr24](/creator/undefined) [@asianarbalot](/creator/undefined) [@theapedecays](/creator/undefined) [@therealdale](/creator/undefined) [@ozcaps_research](/creator/undefined) [@steveglossop4](/creator/undefined) [@incognitusc](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Open Campus (EDU)](/topic/$edu) [Netflix Inc (NFLX)](/topic/$nflx) [Warner Bros Discovery, Inc. (WBD)](/topic/$wbd) [Ethlas (ELS)](/topic/$els) [PIMCO Dynamic Income Fund (PDI)](/topic/$pdi) [Banksocial (BSL)](/topic/$bsl) [Humana Inc (HUM)](/topic/$hum) [Caduceus Protocol (CAD)](/topic/$cad) [Paramount Skydance Corporation Class B Common Stock (PSKY)](/topic/$psky) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours "$ELS.AX : Fidelity I see Fidelity has significantly reduced their holdings in $ELS and sold at a substantial loss. They seem to have masterly purchased at the peak and sold at the trough. It's nice to see that this happens to the professionals as well. I thought this company had significant prospects because of clearly superior technology and a hyperactive CEO but it has not behaved in that fashion at least not in the short term. But the future is out there. I only ever had a tracking hold" [X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1985640539086106941) 2025-11-04T09:29Z XXX followers, 1112 engagements "@SniffRocks @puppyeh1 I always try and catch my kids doing something right. Seems a philosophy worth extending broadly" [X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1998331707322241080) 2025-12-09T09:59Z XXX followers, XXX engagements "$EDU.AX : Day Traders I kind of wonder how many day traders are now in this deal. It's gone up XX% in X days. The only news in that period is that one director has purchased. You have upward pressure from buybacks. Strictly speaking in that 5-day period there has been no material information to upgrade an objective valuation. It may well be worth purchasing for all the reasons previously identified but the price action is not due to any material upgrade" [X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1998605564868431950) 2025-12-10T04:07Z XXX followers, XXX engagements "$STO.AX : Deal Break Called it.I thought they were "tyre kickers". All the photos in their jets convinced me they were wasting everybody's time visiting all over the place at someone else's expense. And then the delay coming to an agreement. That was a visceral feeling and I am troubled that I can't quantify that into a general rule. I actually held a very large amount of STO in the beginning shortly after the initial announcement but then sold out at a X% profit. But I would have sold out a loss as the thesis just no longer worked. There will be big losses as people will unwind tomorrow." [X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1968295257499709838) 2025-09-17T12:45Z XXX followers, XXX engagements "$STO.AX : Short Interest It's surprisingly the big grown ups didn't pick up that one better" [X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1968469849405014129) 2025-09-18T00:19Z XXX followers, XXX engagements "$STO.AX : Autopsy Interesting article from James Thompson at the AFR. Maybe someone smarter than me can explain why the Santos board did not want to obtain scheme approval prior to the Treasurer making a judgement I assume it's about the cost involved in going through the scheme process but really this seems to be the general process with most acquisitions that the FIRB approval is down the track and not upfront. Was the board being unreasonable" [X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1968599151836598484) 2025-09-18T08:53Z XXX followers, XXX engagements "$WDS.AX : Earnings Upgrade Woodside continues to look cheaper and cheaper on the metrics" [X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1980759449666220274) 2025-10-21T22:13Z XXX followers, 8607 engagements "$NSR.AX : Arbitrage (NBIO) If they have waited X years they would be prepared to wait some more if the price is not correct" [X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1995620217981223214) 2025-12-01T22:25Z XXX followers, XXX engagements "Arbitrage Breaks: To Sell or Not Should you sell immediately when a deal breaks in an arbitrage Most professionals have a policy on what to do on a deal break and you should have one as well. Let's consider four recent arbitrage deal breaks: $MYX.AX $AUB.AX $STO.AX and $ASK.AX that did not proceed for different reasons and consider whether you should sell immediately on a break or should wait until sometime afterwards when the dust settles. There are a number of factors to consider when estimating the break level: X. The control premium that had been offered above the undisturbed baseline" [X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1996857120671822110) 2025-12-05T08:20Z XXX followers, 1001 engagements "$NSR.AX: Arbitrage SID entered with Brookfield/GIC Very thin yield given the low likelihood of failure and the lack of a FIRB risk. I am on an arbitrage holiday" [X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1997789507157107040) 2025-12-07T22:05Z XXX followers, XX engagements "Ponzi Scheme: Mortgages Credit Expansion and Magic Money I have been reading some interesting books by economist Richard Koo of Nomura Securities who talks about "balance sheet" recessions. In the context of mortgages this means that every time someone buys a house the bank effectively creates new money by debiting the asset (you owe them) and crediting that amount to your account (to buy the house). New money is created that did not exist before and has no relationship to the actual income producing power of the asset. They can continue to do that until they reach their capital requirements" [X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1997802851100475727) 2025-12-07T22:58Z XXX followers, XXX engagements "$PDI.AX gobbles $RXR.AX This is billed as a merger between two equals although in reality $PDI is acquiring $RXR. Usually in a scrip for scrip acquisition you short the acquirer ($PDI) and go long the acquired ($RXR). But this seems to be going in the opposite direction and I simply do not understand why" [X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1975103760713269637) 2025-10-06T07:40Z XXX followers, 1699 engagements "$BSL.AX & $WDS.AX I was running with a pretty good profit margin on these but now they have suddenly turned to crap. I thought $BSL had some protection against US tariffs while $WDS appears to be getting approvals eg North West Shelf. If I exit I will crystallise a significant loss. I see the descent of $BSL is particularly acute. Transient vs Permanent" [X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1977885391337517510) 2025-10-13T23:53Z XXX followers, 1300 engagements "$DMP.AX : Arbitrage Don't always believe the rumour- street talk claims interest by Bain but it all seems froth based on the ASX announcement. Even if I saw the announcement I wouldn't have jumped in as my due diligence says I don't want to buy $DMP" [X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1983020409802101056) 2025-10-28T03:58Z XXX followers, 2460 engagements "$QUB.AX : Arbitrage It's rather a bad time for me to be taking a break from arbitrage with all these opportunities coming up. Offer price is $XXXX and current price is $XXXX NBIO. It's an interesting situation because Brookfields has somehow been gazzumped by Macquarie Capital. There may be litigation. With my new FIRB lenses I note that this is a logistics company which is important in the import export supply chain. If it was an international acquirer I would not touch it with Mr Chalmers in charge but Macquarie Capital is homegrown. Of course it gets complicated if Brookfield manages to" [X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1992798813590110375) 2025-11-24T03:33Z XXX followers, 2020 engagements "$QUB.AX : Break Price S&P making noises about the credit worthiness of $QUB which you should factor in as it suggests the break price is lower than the prevailing price prior to the announced takeover. Add that to the risk of litigation by Brookfield and the FIRB risk should they prevail you would want to steep discount to offer to make it worth your trouble. I do not hold because I am on an arbitrage break while I educate myself on the FIRB" [X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1993091259129553284) 2025-11-24T22:56Z XXX followers, XXX engagements "$QUB.AX : UniSuper Why is a superannuation fund getting involved in an arbitrage I bet that doesn't meet the APRA performance test" [X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1994281582992216285) 2025-11-28T05:45Z XXX followers, XXX engagements "$QUB.AX : Arbitrage : ACCC FIRB I've been exploring the potential concerns with this acquisition by Macquarie Capital (MCM) from a regulatory point of view as well as potential for litigation from Brookfield. The ACCC recently ruled over an acquisition by Qube of Melbourne International RoRo & Auto Terminal Pty Ltd (MIRRAT) which is constructive because it provides insight into the issues that are forefront of any ACCC assessment. My view is that the primary ACCC concern would be that Macquarie Capital owns a XX% interest in the Port of Newcastle where a key tenant is the agri terminal owned" [X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1995063771656835225) 2025-11-30T09:34Z XXX followers, XXX engagements "$EDU.AX : Hints on Valuation I think Big J should definitely take a bow on this one. It's usually a clue that a company is massively undervalued when management tries to buy it out. It's an education watching progress with $EDU and $HUM. That's a pun with $EDU. It is hard to know whether the jump is due to the updated forward guidance or just that this story has now been better disseminated" [X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1995731423802900554) 2025-12-02T05:47Z XXX followers, 4214 engagements "$PPT.AX : Soft Arbitrage Bain sniffing around Perpetual according to the Australian We do not invest on rumours or even on NBIO especially with PE. PE = Predictable Exit" [X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1995984612276011512) 2025-12-02T22:33Z XXX followers, XXX engagements "$AIG.AX : Arbitrage Acquisition by Montage Gold $MAU.TO scrip for scrip. Currency Risk Market Risk Break Risk Buy $A1G hedge currency risk with ETF and short the acquirer. Accept break risk. $CAD cf $AUD seems in freefall. Conclusion: way too hard" [X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1995988835998859333) 2025-12-02T22:49Z XXX followers, XXX engagements "$NSR.AX: Arbitrage SID entered with Brookfield/GIC Very thin yield given the low likelihood of failure and the lack of a FIRB ACCC risk. I am on an arbitrage holiday" [X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1997789720303284673) 2025-12-07T22:06Z XXX followers, XXX engagements "$NFLX v $WBD Arbitrage He said the same thing about US Steel" [X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1997935569809408127) 2025-12-08T07:45Z XXX followers, XXX engagements "$QUB.AX : Heat Map Tornado Monte Carlo UniSuper. I've been looking at this arbitrage again and constructed a heat map tornado diagram and a Monte Carlo simulation. At first glance this looks very attractive with a yield of about XX% and a per annum yield of 24%. However the downside is indeterminate and maybe circa 22%. If you assess a probability of closure of XX% you get an expected value of return of only X% or XX% per annum. The problem with this arbitrage is that $QUB is a logistics company and there may be ACCC problems. FIRB is less likely to be relevant as MAM is a local acquirer." [X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1998155085961191652) 2025-12-08T22:17Z XXX followers, XXX engagements "$QUB.AX : Arbitrage Correction this is still an NBIO with thanks to @URouchel" [X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1998174688925954208) 2025-12-08T23:35Z XXX followers, XXX engagements "$WBD : Arbitrage $NFLX offer $XXXXX + arguably $X - $X due to divestment parts of the business into a separate entity. $PSKY offer $XX. Regulatory risks both from reducing competition (both bidders) and foreign parties ($PSKY bid). Note that $PSKY bid was NOT "best and final" so there may be some uplift. Maybe interesting to play for the battle but not to stay for the end which may well be a regulatory coup de gras. Trump related parties involved in the $PSKY bid which unlike past administrations is a factor. Not my usual area to arbitrage" [X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1998213356554231959) 2025-12-09T02:09Z XXX followers, XXX engagements "$EDU & Immigration To be honest I think excessive immigration is going to go on for a LONG time. I did a little post about this matter based on the economist Robert Koo from Nomura and the reality is the government simply cannot stop immigration. Why X. Because we have credit expansion disconnected from underlying value where mortgages are made for housing which has no relationship to its potential income earning capacity as a rental. It's a Ponzi scheme and as mortgages create new money it's expansionary and worsens the problem. Housing only increases in value when the next best idiot is" [X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1998636173925982578) 2025-12-10T06:09Z XXX followers, XXX engagements "$NSR.AX : Cash Settled Equity Swaps A learning experience watching what the hedge funds do in an arbitrage. Pentwater a US based hedge fund has disclosed that they have a cash settled equity swap on 76m (circa $200m) shares which is just over X% of the company. An equity swap allows Pentwater to have the benefit of the share price movement at the much smaller cost of paying the financing cost for the borrow (BBSW + spread). This is likely a total return swap which means they get the benefit of the upside and the damage of the downside. It is also possible to have an option like swap where" [X Link](https://x.com/toy59496/status/1998649807217590574) 2025-12-10T07:03Z XXX followers, XXX engagements
[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]
@toy59496 Robin Dods
Robin Dods posts on X about $qubax, $stoax, $nsrax, acquisition the most. They currently have XXX followers and XX posts still getting attention that total XXX engagements in the last XX hours.
Engagements: XXX #
- X Week XXXXX -XX%
- X Month XXXXXX -XX%
- X Months XXXXXXX +134,281%
Mentions: XX #
- X Week XX -XX%
- X Month XXX +5%
- X Months XXX +38,400%
Followers: XXX #
- X Week XXX +1.80%
- X Month XXX +12%
- X Months XXX +6,667%
CreatorRank: XXXXXXXXX #
Social Influence
Social category influence finance XXXXX% cryptocurrencies XXXX% stocks XXXX% travel destinations XXXX% currencies XXXX%
Social topic influence $qubax #36, $stoax #1487, $nsrax #1, acquisition #1496, to the 4.08%, $eduax #3, all the 4.08%, $wdsax 4.08%, lack of 4.08%, $8604t #51
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @bowtiedstocks @kingfishcap @wambonecap @jasonphill40479 @sniffrocks @doors2mj @fabreres @rexkwondoe @dealintcb @puppyeh1 @urouchel @comlbr24 @asianarbalot @theapedecays @therealdale @ozcaps_research @steveglossop4 @incognitusc
Top assets mentioned Open Campus (EDU) Netflix Inc (NFLX) Warner Bros Discovery, Inc. (WBD) Ethlas (ELS) PIMCO Dynamic Income Fund (PDI) Banksocial (BSL) Humana Inc (HUM) Caduceus Protocol (CAD) Paramount Skydance Corporation Class B Common Stock (PSKY)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours
"$ELS.AX : Fidelity I see Fidelity has significantly reduced their holdings in $ELS and sold at a substantial loss. They seem to have masterly purchased at the peak and sold at the trough. It's nice to see that this happens to the professionals as well. I thought this company had significant prospects because of clearly superior technology and a hyperactive CEO but it has not behaved in that fashion at least not in the short term. But the future is out there. I only ever had a tracking hold"
X Link 2025-11-04T09:29Z XXX followers, 1112 engagements
"@SniffRocks @puppyeh1 I always try and catch my kids doing something right. Seems a philosophy worth extending broadly"
X Link 2025-12-09T09:59Z XXX followers, XXX engagements
"$EDU.AX : Day Traders I kind of wonder how many day traders are now in this deal. It's gone up XX% in X days. The only news in that period is that one director has purchased. You have upward pressure from buybacks. Strictly speaking in that 5-day period there has been no material information to upgrade an objective valuation. It may well be worth purchasing for all the reasons previously identified but the price action is not due to any material upgrade"
X Link 2025-12-10T04:07Z XXX followers, XXX engagements
"$STO.AX : Deal Break Called it.I thought they were "tyre kickers". All the photos in their jets convinced me they were wasting everybody's time visiting all over the place at someone else's expense. And then the delay coming to an agreement. That was a visceral feeling and I am troubled that I can't quantify that into a general rule. I actually held a very large amount of STO in the beginning shortly after the initial announcement but then sold out at a X% profit. But I would have sold out a loss as the thesis just no longer worked. There will be big losses as people will unwind tomorrow."
X Link 2025-09-17T12:45Z XXX followers, XXX engagements
"$STO.AX : Short Interest It's surprisingly the big grown ups didn't pick up that one better"
X Link 2025-09-18T00:19Z XXX followers, XXX engagements
"$STO.AX : Autopsy Interesting article from James Thompson at the AFR. Maybe someone smarter than me can explain why the Santos board did not want to obtain scheme approval prior to the Treasurer making a judgement I assume it's about the cost involved in going through the scheme process but really this seems to be the general process with most acquisitions that the FIRB approval is down the track and not upfront. Was the board being unreasonable"
X Link 2025-09-18T08:53Z XXX followers, XXX engagements
"$WDS.AX : Earnings Upgrade Woodside continues to look cheaper and cheaper on the metrics"
X Link 2025-10-21T22:13Z XXX followers, 8607 engagements
"$NSR.AX : Arbitrage (NBIO) If they have waited X years they would be prepared to wait some more if the price is not correct"
X Link 2025-12-01T22:25Z XXX followers, XXX engagements
"Arbitrage Breaks: To Sell or Not Should you sell immediately when a deal breaks in an arbitrage Most professionals have a policy on what to do on a deal break and you should have one as well. Let's consider four recent arbitrage deal breaks: $MYX.AX $AUB.AX $STO.AX and $ASK.AX that did not proceed for different reasons and consider whether you should sell immediately on a break or should wait until sometime afterwards when the dust settles. There are a number of factors to consider when estimating the break level: X. The control premium that had been offered above the undisturbed baseline"
X Link 2025-12-05T08:20Z XXX followers, 1001 engagements
"$NSR.AX: Arbitrage SID entered with Brookfield/GIC Very thin yield given the low likelihood of failure and the lack of a FIRB risk. I am on an arbitrage holiday"
X Link 2025-12-07T22:05Z XXX followers, XX engagements
"Ponzi Scheme: Mortgages Credit Expansion and Magic Money I have been reading some interesting books by economist Richard Koo of Nomura Securities who talks about "balance sheet" recessions. In the context of mortgages this means that every time someone buys a house the bank effectively creates new money by debiting the asset (you owe them) and crediting that amount to your account (to buy the house). New money is created that did not exist before and has no relationship to the actual income producing power of the asset. They can continue to do that until they reach their capital requirements"
X Link 2025-12-07T22:58Z XXX followers, XXX engagements
"$PDI.AX gobbles $RXR.AX This is billed as a merger between two equals although in reality $PDI is acquiring $RXR. Usually in a scrip for scrip acquisition you short the acquirer ($PDI) and go long the acquired ($RXR). But this seems to be going in the opposite direction and I simply do not understand why"
X Link 2025-10-06T07:40Z XXX followers, 1699 engagements
"$BSL.AX & $WDS.AX I was running with a pretty good profit margin on these but now they have suddenly turned to crap. I thought $BSL had some protection against US tariffs while $WDS appears to be getting approvals eg North West Shelf. If I exit I will crystallise a significant loss. I see the descent of $BSL is particularly acute. Transient vs Permanent"
X Link 2025-10-13T23:53Z XXX followers, 1300 engagements
"$DMP.AX : Arbitrage Don't always believe the rumour- street talk claims interest by Bain but it all seems froth based on the ASX announcement. Even if I saw the announcement I wouldn't have jumped in as my due diligence says I don't want to buy $DMP"
X Link 2025-10-28T03:58Z XXX followers, 2460 engagements
"$QUB.AX : Arbitrage It's rather a bad time for me to be taking a break from arbitrage with all these opportunities coming up. Offer price is $XXXX and current price is $XXXX NBIO. It's an interesting situation because Brookfields has somehow been gazzumped by Macquarie Capital. There may be litigation. With my new FIRB lenses I note that this is a logistics company which is important in the import export supply chain. If it was an international acquirer I would not touch it with Mr Chalmers in charge but Macquarie Capital is homegrown. Of course it gets complicated if Brookfield manages to"
X Link 2025-11-24T03:33Z XXX followers, 2020 engagements
"$QUB.AX : Break Price S&P making noises about the credit worthiness of $QUB which you should factor in as it suggests the break price is lower than the prevailing price prior to the announced takeover. Add that to the risk of litigation by Brookfield and the FIRB risk should they prevail you would want to steep discount to offer to make it worth your trouble. I do not hold because I am on an arbitrage break while I educate myself on the FIRB"
X Link 2025-11-24T22:56Z XXX followers, XXX engagements
"$QUB.AX : UniSuper Why is a superannuation fund getting involved in an arbitrage I bet that doesn't meet the APRA performance test"
X Link 2025-11-28T05:45Z XXX followers, XXX engagements
"$QUB.AX : Arbitrage : ACCC FIRB I've been exploring the potential concerns with this acquisition by Macquarie Capital (MCM) from a regulatory point of view as well as potential for litigation from Brookfield. The ACCC recently ruled over an acquisition by Qube of Melbourne International RoRo & Auto Terminal Pty Ltd (MIRRAT) which is constructive because it provides insight into the issues that are forefront of any ACCC assessment. My view is that the primary ACCC concern would be that Macquarie Capital owns a XX% interest in the Port of Newcastle where a key tenant is the agri terminal owned"
X Link 2025-11-30T09:34Z XXX followers, XXX engagements
"$EDU.AX : Hints on Valuation I think Big J should definitely take a bow on this one. It's usually a clue that a company is massively undervalued when management tries to buy it out. It's an education watching progress with $EDU and $HUM. That's a pun with $EDU. It is hard to know whether the jump is due to the updated forward guidance or just that this story has now been better disseminated"
X Link 2025-12-02T05:47Z XXX followers, 4214 engagements
"$PPT.AX : Soft Arbitrage Bain sniffing around Perpetual according to the Australian We do not invest on rumours or even on NBIO especially with PE. PE = Predictable Exit"
X Link 2025-12-02T22:33Z XXX followers, XXX engagements
"$AIG.AX : Arbitrage Acquisition by Montage Gold $MAU.TO scrip for scrip. Currency Risk Market Risk Break Risk Buy $A1G hedge currency risk with ETF and short the acquirer. Accept break risk. $CAD cf $AUD seems in freefall. Conclusion: way too hard"
X Link 2025-12-02T22:49Z XXX followers, XXX engagements
"$NSR.AX: Arbitrage SID entered with Brookfield/GIC Very thin yield given the low likelihood of failure and the lack of a FIRB ACCC risk. I am on an arbitrage holiday"
X Link 2025-12-07T22:06Z XXX followers, XXX engagements
"$NFLX v $WBD Arbitrage He said the same thing about US Steel"
X Link 2025-12-08T07:45Z XXX followers, XXX engagements
"$QUB.AX : Heat Map Tornado Monte Carlo UniSuper. I've been looking at this arbitrage again and constructed a heat map tornado diagram and a Monte Carlo simulation. At first glance this looks very attractive with a yield of about XX% and a per annum yield of 24%. However the downside is indeterminate and maybe circa 22%. If you assess a probability of closure of XX% you get an expected value of return of only X% or XX% per annum. The problem with this arbitrage is that $QUB is a logistics company and there may be ACCC problems. FIRB is less likely to be relevant as MAM is a local acquirer."
X Link 2025-12-08T22:17Z XXX followers, XXX engagements
"$QUB.AX : Arbitrage Correction this is still an NBIO with thanks to @URouchel"
X Link 2025-12-08T23:35Z XXX followers, XXX engagements
"$WBD : Arbitrage $NFLX offer $XXXXX + arguably $X - $X due to divestment parts of the business into a separate entity. $PSKY offer $XX. Regulatory risks both from reducing competition (both bidders) and foreign parties ($PSKY bid). Note that $PSKY bid was NOT "best and final" so there may be some uplift. Maybe interesting to play for the battle but not to stay for the end which may well be a regulatory coup de gras. Trump related parties involved in the $PSKY bid which unlike past administrations is a factor. Not my usual area to arbitrage"
X Link 2025-12-09T02:09Z XXX followers, XXX engagements
"$EDU & Immigration To be honest I think excessive immigration is going to go on for a LONG time. I did a little post about this matter based on the economist Robert Koo from Nomura and the reality is the government simply cannot stop immigration. Why X. Because we have credit expansion disconnected from underlying value where mortgages are made for housing which has no relationship to its potential income earning capacity as a rental. It's a Ponzi scheme and as mortgages create new money it's expansionary and worsens the problem. Housing only increases in value when the next best idiot is"
X Link 2025-12-10T06:09Z XXX followers, XXX engagements
"$NSR.AX : Cash Settled Equity Swaps A learning experience watching what the hedge funds do in an arbitrage. Pentwater a US based hedge fund has disclosed that they have a cash settled equity swap on 76m (circa $200m) shares which is just over X% of the company. An equity swap allows Pentwater to have the benefit of the share price movement at the much smaller cost of paying the financing cost for the borrow (BBSW + spread). This is likely a total return swap which means they get the benefit of the upside and the damage of the downside. It is also possible to have an option like swap where"
X Link 2025-12-10T07:03Z XXX followers, XXX engagements