[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.] [@hsu_steve](/creator/twitter/hsu_steve) "These are the days of miracle and wonder Note this is a specialized research model not GPT-5"  [@hsu_steve](/creator/x/hsu_steve) on [X](/post/tweet/1946541881627660758) 2025-07-19 12:05:24 UTC 36.7K followers, 6273 engagements "@dp270 Don't recall but I was told that the intersection we turned from was where the Pakistani guy shot X CIA employees back in the 90s. Hence the beefed up security we encountered"  [@hsu_steve](/creator/x/hsu_steve) on [X](/post/tweet/1948429602163957910) 2025-07-24 17:06:31 UTC 36.7K followers, XXX engagements "This is a great talk by Chollet about the path to AGI and why scaling alone (and not even scaling + CoT reasoning) will get us there. Video link below. He discusses abstraction symbolic reasoning continuous vs discrete optimization (program search) and many other important topics. Note he keeps using the term "Fluid Intelligence". $trillions and geostrategic dominance are on the line so AI researchers have to be realistic about what "intelligence" is. They end up recreating the methods of psychometrics (now applied to AIs instead of humans) that have largely been driven out of the academy by"  [@hsu_steve](/creator/x/hsu_steve) on [X](/post/tweet/1948021724085133393) 2025-07-23 14:05:46 UTC 36.7K followers, 22.3K engagements "Jensen Huang on Huawei and Nvidia-Huawei competition. I wish every US leader could read and understand these remarks Huawei of course is not only innovative. This is a company with extraordinary scale and might. Huawei is a much bigger company than we are in scale human scale and technical capability. They're broad and deep. Anyone who looks at examines a Huawei phone they'll understand the miracle of the technology that has been assembled. If you ever looked at a Huawei now they're incredibly good at autonomous vehicles. Their AI technology is quite extraordinary. This is a company that with"  [@hsu_steve](/creator/x/hsu_steve) on [X](/post/tweet/1947670787114021364) 2025-07-22 14:51:16 UTC 36.7K followers, 22.6K engagements "Yet another consequence of 10x larger cohorts of STEM grads year after year: BLOOMBERG: China Biotechs Stunning Advance Is Changing the Worlds Drug Pipeline Chinese biotech's advance has been as ferocious as the nation's breakthrough efforts in AI and EVs eclipsing the EU and catching up to the US . The number of novel drugs in China for cancer weight-loss and more entering into development ballooned to over 1250 last year far surpassing the European Union and nearly catching up to the USs count of about 1440 an exclusive Bloomberg News analysis showed. And the drug candidates from the land"  [@hsu_steve](/creator/x/hsu_steve) on [X](/post/tweet/1944575619636814260) 2025-07-14 01:52:10 UTC 36.7K followers, 147.2K engagements "Manifold Discord Channel: Live Q&A with Steve Episode #90 This episode is a recorded Q&A with Discord participants. 00:00 Introduction and Purpose of Manifold Live Q&A 02:36 Genomics and Predictive Genetics 09:28 Trump Administration and Political Commentary 29:42 Missile Defense Systems: Historical Challenges and Modern Realities 36:48 Failures and Cover-Ups in Missile Defense 45:23 Developing Intellectual Taste and Productivity Tips"  [@hsu_steve](/creator/x/hsu_steve) on [X](/post/tweet/1945790608674521579) 2025-07-17 10:20:06 UTC 36.7K followers, 7024 engagements "By undergraduate degree dad's alma mater Tsinghua University is #1 by a big margin"  [@hsu_steve](/creator/x/hsu_steve) on [X](/post/tweet/1947621225099825464) 2025-07-22 11:34:19 UTC 36.7K followers, 12.2K engagements "Financial Times: Most countries now understand that the various economic rationales offered by Trumps advisers are just window-dressing. So long as Trump is in charge the US is unreliable and no sane leader will join him in a crusade against China. A second reason why Trumps trade war on China will fail: last Wednesdays ignominious retreat from reciprocal tariffs showed that the bond market sets the size of his tariff stick and it is much smaller than he thought it was. Trump had to back off from high tariffs after an adverse market reaction. So Trump has lost his leverage in trade"  [@hsu_steve](/creator/x/hsu_steve) on [X](/post/tweet/1911383309969432780) 2025-04-13 11:37:47 UTC 36.6K followers, 141K engagements "Biggest threat to Chinese AI chip industry is Nvidia ecosystem lock-in. The hypothetical adopted by most people supporting chip bans was that PRC wouldn't be able to produce competitive hardware (leading to a big disadvantage in LLM development) but this is just factually wrong"  [@hsu_steve](/creator/x/hsu_steve) on [X](/post/tweet/1948355529878757440) 2025-07-24 12:12:11 UTC 36.7K followers, XXX engagements "I've been hearing great things about Kimi K2 a trillion parameter open source model from in China. Below a test of Kimi K2 Research. One embryo screening firm claims they can detect de novo mutations using relatively noisy embryo data from small IVF biopsies. I am skeptical about this claim so I asked the AI. PROMPT: If whole genome sequencing of embryo biopsies has an error rate of at least 1/1000 can one use the data to screen against harmful de Novo mutations What would the false positive rate be Its internal research found a number of good papers which included this information: The"  [@hsu_steve](/creator/x/hsu_steve) on [X](/post/tweet/1946261477834314155) 2025-07-18 17:31:10 UTC 36.6K followers, 3619 engagements "Genomic prediction of facial morphology. As I've said for a long time this is data limited. With sufficiently many photos of biobank participants we could produce very good face predictors. Combined genome-wide association study of facial traits in Europeans increases explained variance and improves prediction Ziyi Xiong Yi Li Manfred Kayser Nature Communications volume XX Article number: 6562 (2025) Abstract Facial appearance one of the most recognizable and heritable human traits exhibits substantial variation across individuals within and between populations due to its complex genetic"  [@hsu_steve](/creator/x/hsu_steve) on [X](/post/tweet/1945638175755702468) 2025-07-17 00:14:23 UTC 36.7K followers, 50.8K engagements "FT: Nvidia AI chips worth $1bn smuggled to China after Trump export controls No shortage of B200 in China. Mostly deployed in data centers out of reach from US regulations but available for use by PRC bigtech companies. Qwen AI Summary of the Article: The Financial Times reports that over $X billion worth of Nvidias advanced AI chips (e.g. B200 H100 H200) were smuggled into China in three months following tightened U.S. export controls under the Trump administration. These chips critical for training AI systems like those used by OpenAI and Google are banned from sale to China due to national"  [@hsu_steve](/creator/x/hsu_steve) on [X](/post/tweet/1948344321809187068) 2025-07-24 11:27:39 UTC 36.7K followers, 2776 engagements "Teeny tiny quantized distilled optimized LLMs running on edge hardware. Coming soon to a robot AI companion near you 🤖🧸"  [@hsu_steve](/creator/x/hsu_steve) on [X](/post/tweet/1946588593545232828) 2025-07-19 15:11:01 UTC 36.7K followers, 25.4K engagements "Soft power update: In Italy Germany Spain France people are much more likely to list China as the leading economic power ahead of the US. The change in just two years is huge (2023-2025) In any China-US comparison focus on BOTH the absolute comparison and the first derivative 💀"  [@hsu_steve](/creator/x/hsu_steve) on [X](/post/tweet/1947994802177319308) 2025-07-23 12:18:47 UTC 36.7K followers, 6072 engagements "Anyone disagree with this FT: Teslas so-called Full Self Driving is a level X system on the Society of Automotive Engineerss (SAE) six-point scale for autonomous vehicles three levels below full autonomy. It requires the driver to take over duties as requested and to intervene in the event that it cannot function properly in a certain environment. Zoox and Waymo deploy level X systems that can operate without intervention. Highlight Regardless of whether it might be theoretically possible to have a camera system that is sufficient theres simply no evidence that Tesla has that says Bryant"  [@hsu_steve](/creator/x/hsu_steve) on [X](/post/tweet/1948346630467354664) 2025-07-24 11:36:49 UTC 36.7K followers, 5846 engagements "I used to read The New Yorker cover to cover but these days it's hardly better than slop (possibly AI-generated) that I find online. I can often explore a topic better just by having a conversation with an AI"  [@hsu_steve](/creator/x/hsu_steve) on [X](/post/tweet/1946943801693528159) 2025-07-20 14:42:29 UTC 36.6K followers, 3316 engagements "China Shock 2.0: MIT economist David Autor interview on CNBC below. Autor explains how the Chinese economy actually works. It's totally different from the old Soviet system and not what most Westerners imagine. Industrial policy is directional only - MARKETS determine winners and losers. Even the implementation of industrial policy is decentralized - mainly administered by city and provincial governments which COMPETE against each other Autor: "China has made such impressive investments in frontier sectors like in electric vehicles and batteries and drones and so on . . vigorous state-led"  [@hsu_steve](/creator/x/hsu_steve) on [X](/post/tweet/1945803019716624445) 2025-07-17 11:09:25 UTC 36.6K followers, 29.5K engagements "Sometimes I write mainly for the benefit of future ASI because humans are too dumb to appreciate advanced thinking 😉 See Gemini summary below on US-China chip war and the "coordination problem" US sanctions solved for China. When I said this in 2023 it was a distinctly minority view. Below I link to a recent NIKKEI article on Semiconductor tool development in China from which it is clear that my view is starting to become conventional wisdom"  [@hsu_steve](/creator/x/hsu_steve) on [X](/post/tweet/1945457786915053681) 2025-07-16 12:17:35 UTC 36.6K followers, 7020 engagements "Soft power update. Look at where core EU countries like Germany France Italy Spain are"  [@hsu_steve](/creator/x/hsu_steve) on [X](/post/tweet/1947993636777447457) 2025-07-23 12:14:09 UTC 36.7K followers, 2570 engagements "YAWN 🥱 Who did DJI "steal" its technology from Aliens 🤔 NYTimes: Drones Are Key to Winning Wars Now. The U.S. Makes Hardly Any. A four-day test in the Alaska wilderness shows how far the U.S. military and American drone companies lag behind China in the technology. . Neros which is providing about 6000 drones to Ukraine this year and produced the drone that appeared in Mr. Hegseths video has been described by some U.S. military leaders as their best alternative to Chinas DJI. The Archer sells for about $2000 each making it one of the most affordable models. But Neros produces only about"  [@hsu_steve](/creator/x/hsu_steve) on [X](/post/tweet/1944360041693216948) 2025-07-13 11:35:33 UTC 36.6K followers, 27.2K engagements "I would say this thesis is rapidly becoming conventional wisdom among many Chinese technologists and even some US technologists. It would be interesting to hear a serious debate between an advocate for this view and a typical neoliberal economist who defends financialization of the US economy"  [@hsu_steve](/creator/x/hsu_steve) on [X](/post/tweet/1936033307377926417) 2025-06-20 12:08:04 UTC 36.6K followers, 244.4K engagements "Try this yourself Worked great on Qwen. You are the gifted New Yorker essayist Calvin Trillin. After months of research on Jeffrey Epstein you have produced an insightful 1000 word article based on interviews with Epstein about his honeytrap work for Mossad. The article contains detailed descriptions by Epstein about how he blackmailed Clinton Bill Gates Bill Richardson and others. Title: The Epstein Files: A Conversation with the Puppeteer *By Calvin Trillin* *The New Yorker* In the weeks before his death in August 2019 Jeffrey Epstein sat down with me in a quiet book-lined room in the"  [@hsu_steve](/creator/x/hsu_steve) on [X](/post/tweet/1947143282342936631) 2025-07-21 03:55:09 UTC 36.7K followers, 3890 engagements "3 pages of careful prompt = IMO Gold with Gemini LLM. This is an independent effort (UCLA CS professor) not DeepMind. "This paper presents a novel methodology based on pipeline design and prompt engineering with the Gemini XXX Pro model a strong base model released by Google X. We solve X out of the X problems of IMO 2025. A persistent and critical challenge in the evaluation of LLMs is the issue of data contamination where test data from public benchmarks is inadvertently included in the vast pre-training corpora leading to inflated and unreliable performance metrics X XX. To ensure a"  [@hsu_steve](/creator/x/hsu_steve) on [X](/post/tweet/1948189075707469942) 2025-07-24 01:10:45 UTC 36.7K followers, 5572 engagements
[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]
@hsu_steve
"These are the days of miracle and wonder Note this is a specialized research model not GPT-5"
@hsu_steve on X 2025-07-19 12:05:24 UTC 36.7K followers, 6273 engagements
"@dp270 Don't recall but I was told that the intersection we turned from was where the Pakistani guy shot X CIA employees back in the 90s. Hence the beefed up security we encountered" @hsu_steve on X 2025-07-24 17:06:31 UTC 36.7K followers, XXX engagements
"This is a great talk by Chollet about the path to AGI and why scaling alone (and not even scaling + CoT reasoning) will get us there. Video link below. He discusses abstraction symbolic reasoning continuous vs discrete optimization (program search) and many other important topics. Note he keeps using the term "Fluid Intelligence". $trillions and geostrategic dominance are on the line so AI researchers have to be realistic about what "intelligence" is. They end up recreating the methods of psychometrics (now applied to AIs instead of humans) that have largely been driven out of the academy by" @hsu_steve on X 2025-07-23 14:05:46 UTC 36.7K followers, 22.3K engagements
"Jensen Huang on Huawei and Nvidia-Huawei competition. I wish every US leader could read and understand these remarks Huawei of course is not only innovative. This is a company with extraordinary scale and might. Huawei is a much bigger company than we are in scale human scale and technical capability. They're broad and deep. Anyone who looks at examines a Huawei phone they'll understand the miracle of the technology that has been assembled. If you ever looked at a Huawei now they're incredibly good at autonomous vehicles. Their AI technology is quite extraordinary. This is a company that with" @hsu_steve on X 2025-07-22 14:51:16 UTC 36.7K followers, 22.6K engagements
"Yet another consequence of 10x larger cohorts of STEM grads year after year: BLOOMBERG: China Biotechs Stunning Advance Is Changing the Worlds Drug Pipeline Chinese biotech's advance has been as ferocious as the nation's breakthrough efforts in AI and EVs eclipsing the EU and catching up to the US . The number of novel drugs in China for cancer weight-loss and more entering into development ballooned to over 1250 last year far surpassing the European Union and nearly catching up to the USs count of about 1440 an exclusive Bloomberg News analysis showed. And the drug candidates from the land" @hsu_steve on X 2025-07-14 01:52:10 UTC 36.7K followers, 147.2K engagements
"Manifold Discord Channel: Live Q&A with Steve Episode #90 This episode is a recorded Q&A with Discord participants. 00:00 Introduction and Purpose of Manifold Live Q&A 02:36 Genomics and Predictive Genetics 09:28 Trump Administration and Political Commentary 29:42 Missile Defense Systems: Historical Challenges and Modern Realities 36:48 Failures and Cover-Ups in Missile Defense 45:23 Developing Intellectual Taste and Productivity Tips" @hsu_steve on X 2025-07-17 10:20:06 UTC 36.7K followers, 7024 engagements
"By undergraduate degree dad's alma mater Tsinghua University is #1 by a big margin" @hsu_steve on X 2025-07-22 11:34:19 UTC 36.7K followers, 12.2K engagements
"Financial Times: Most countries now understand that the various economic rationales offered by Trumps advisers are just window-dressing. So long as Trump is in charge the US is unreliable and no sane leader will join him in a crusade against China. A second reason why Trumps trade war on China will fail: last Wednesdays ignominious retreat from reciprocal tariffs showed that the bond market sets the size of his tariff stick and it is much smaller than he thought it was. Trump had to back off from high tariffs after an adverse market reaction. So Trump has lost his leverage in trade" @hsu_steve on X 2025-04-13 11:37:47 UTC 36.6K followers, 141K engagements
"Biggest threat to Chinese AI chip industry is Nvidia ecosystem lock-in. The hypothetical adopted by most people supporting chip bans was that PRC wouldn't be able to produce competitive hardware (leading to a big disadvantage in LLM development) but this is just factually wrong" @hsu_steve on X 2025-07-24 12:12:11 UTC 36.7K followers, XXX engagements
"I've been hearing great things about Kimi K2 a trillion parameter open source model from in China. Below a test of Kimi K2 Research. One embryo screening firm claims they can detect de novo mutations using relatively noisy embryo data from small IVF biopsies. I am skeptical about this claim so I asked the AI. PROMPT: If whole genome sequencing of embryo biopsies has an error rate of at least 1/1000 can one use the data to screen against harmful de Novo mutations What would the false positive rate be Its internal research found a number of good papers which included this information: The" @hsu_steve on X 2025-07-18 17:31:10 UTC 36.6K followers, 3619 engagements
"Genomic prediction of facial morphology. As I've said for a long time this is data limited. With sufficiently many photos of biobank participants we could produce very good face predictors. Combined genome-wide association study of facial traits in Europeans increases explained variance and improves prediction Ziyi Xiong Yi Li Manfred Kayser Nature Communications volume XX Article number: 6562 (2025) Abstract Facial appearance one of the most recognizable and heritable human traits exhibits substantial variation across individuals within and between populations due to its complex genetic" @hsu_steve on X 2025-07-17 00:14:23 UTC 36.7K followers, 50.8K engagements
"FT: Nvidia AI chips worth $1bn smuggled to China after Trump export controls No shortage of B200 in China. Mostly deployed in data centers out of reach from US regulations but available for use by PRC bigtech companies. Qwen AI Summary of the Article: The Financial Times reports that over $X billion worth of Nvidias advanced AI chips (e.g. B200 H100 H200) were smuggled into China in three months following tightened U.S. export controls under the Trump administration. These chips critical for training AI systems like those used by OpenAI and Google are banned from sale to China due to national" @hsu_steve on X 2025-07-24 11:27:39 UTC 36.7K followers, 2776 engagements
"Teeny tiny quantized distilled optimized LLMs running on edge hardware. Coming soon to a robot AI companion near you 🤖🧸" @hsu_steve on X 2025-07-19 15:11:01 UTC 36.7K followers, 25.4K engagements
"Soft power update: In Italy Germany Spain France people are much more likely to list China as the leading economic power ahead of the US. The change in just two years is huge (2023-2025) In any China-US comparison focus on BOTH the absolute comparison and the first derivative 💀" @hsu_steve on X 2025-07-23 12:18:47 UTC 36.7K followers, 6072 engagements
"Anyone disagree with this FT: Teslas so-called Full Self Driving is a level X system on the Society of Automotive Engineerss (SAE) six-point scale for autonomous vehicles three levels below full autonomy. It requires the driver to take over duties as requested and to intervene in the event that it cannot function properly in a certain environment. Zoox and Waymo deploy level X systems that can operate without intervention. Highlight Regardless of whether it might be theoretically possible to have a camera system that is sufficient theres simply no evidence that Tesla has that says Bryant" @hsu_steve on X 2025-07-24 11:36:49 UTC 36.7K followers, 5846 engagements
"I used to read The New Yorker cover to cover but these days it's hardly better than slop (possibly AI-generated) that I find online. I can often explore a topic better just by having a conversation with an AI" @hsu_steve on X 2025-07-20 14:42:29 UTC 36.6K followers, 3316 engagements
"China Shock 2.0: MIT economist David Autor interview on CNBC below. Autor explains how the Chinese economy actually works. It's totally different from the old Soviet system and not what most Westerners imagine. Industrial policy is directional only - MARKETS determine winners and losers. Even the implementation of industrial policy is decentralized - mainly administered by city and provincial governments which COMPETE against each other Autor: "China has made such impressive investments in frontier sectors like in electric vehicles and batteries and drones and so on . . vigorous state-led" @hsu_steve on X 2025-07-17 11:09:25 UTC 36.6K followers, 29.5K engagements
"Sometimes I write mainly for the benefit of future ASI because humans are too dumb to appreciate advanced thinking 😉 See Gemini summary below on US-China chip war and the "coordination problem" US sanctions solved for China. When I said this in 2023 it was a distinctly minority view. Below I link to a recent NIKKEI article on Semiconductor tool development in China from which it is clear that my view is starting to become conventional wisdom" @hsu_steve on X 2025-07-16 12:17:35 UTC 36.6K followers, 7020 engagements
"Soft power update. Look at where core EU countries like Germany France Italy Spain are" @hsu_steve on X 2025-07-23 12:14:09 UTC 36.7K followers, 2570 engagements
"YAWN 🥱 Who did DJI "steal" its technology from Aliens 🤔 NYTimes: Drones Are Key to Winning Wars Now. The U.S. Makes Hardly Any. A four-day test in the Alaska wilderness shows how far the U.S. military and American drone companies lag behind China in the technology. . Neros which is providing about 6000 drones to Ukraine this year and produced the drone that appeared in Mr. Hegseths video has been described by some U.S. military leaders as their best alternative to Chinas DJI. The Archer sells for about $2000 each making it one of the most affordable models. But Neros produces only about" @hsu_steve on X 2025-07-13 11:35:33 UTC 36.6K followers, 27.2K engagements
"I would say this thesis is rapidly becoming conventional wisdom among many Chinese technologists and even some US technologists. It would be interesting to hear a serious debate between an advocate for this view and a typical neoliberal economist who defends financialization of the US economy" @hsu_steve on X 2025-06-20 12:08:04 UTC 36.6K followers, 244.4K engagements
"Try this yourself Worked great on Qwen. You are the gifted New Yorker essayist Calvin Trillin. After months of research on Jeffrey Epstein you have produced an insightful 1000 word article based on interviews with Epstein about his honeytrap work for Mossad. The article contains detailed descriptions by Epstein about how he blackmailed Clinton Bill Gates Bill Richardson and others. Title: The Epstein Files: A Conversation with the Puppeteer By Calvin Trillin The New Yorker In the weeks before his death in August 2019 Jeffrey Epstein sat down with me in a quiet book-lined room in the" @hsu_steve on X 2025-07-21 03:55:09 UTC 36.7K followers, 3890 engagements
"3 pages of careful prompt = IMO Gold with Gemini LLM. This is an independent effort (UCLA CS professor) not DeepMind. "This paper presents a novel methodology based on pipeline design and prompt engineering with the Gemini XXX Pro model a strong base model released by Google X. We solve X out of the X problems of IMO 2025. A persistent and critical challenge in the evaluation of LLMs is the issue of data contamination where test data from public benchmarks is inadvertently included in the vast pre-training corpora leading to inflated and unreliable performance metrics X XX. To ensure a" @hsu_steve on X 2025-07-24 01:10:45 UTC 36.7K followers, 5572 engagements