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[@pandawatch88](/creator/twitter/pandawatch88)
"no Cambricon (*gasp*) And Kingsoft Cloud and I mean if you are going to put Yum China and SF and Gree (seriously) you may as well put QFIN and Mobvista. This feels as random as an Asia Top XX bars list"  
[X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/1973396974649897304) [@pandawatch88](/creator/x/pandawatch88) 2025-10-01T14:37Z 4434 followers, 3989 engagements


"Sooo are we finally going to make money on Kingsoft"  
[X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/1976913634296316377) [@pandawatch88](/creator/x/pandawatch88) 2025-10-11T07:31Z 4433 followers, 7572 engagements


"Answer: yes some at least for now. The reason I haven't sold Kingsoft yet despite the lagging numbers (theres growth just not much not monetizing AI) is because I dont want to make the same mistake as with SMIC (and yes very different biz blah blah etc etc but if you take X steps back and look at it from afar with the eyes semiclosed sunglasses on margarita in hand the same way retail uncles do it goes in the same basket). My view is this is a 10-15% bottom line growth business long term (75% base case then XX% chance AI kills it and XX% chance it grows 30%) the pro move here is sell now and"  
[X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/1977559445363384570) [@pandawatch88](/creator/x/pandawatch88) 2025-10-13T02:18Z 4434 followers, 4452 engagements


"Following up my comments on Baidu robotaxi: great product good fun but wont make money. Any number you put on your SOTP is ARKK level vaporware. Unless management is quick enough to either: -merge it with pony or weride asap and make a clear industry #1 that sets discipline on price -spin it off while people still pay up for the dream And yet Robin wont do it cause he is busy reading mangas at home and chip flow charts in the office"  
[X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/1978854701530747211) [@pandawatch88](/creator/x/pandawatch88) 2025-10-16T16:05Z 4434 followers, 6960 engagements


"@Dr_Singularity"  
[X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/1979540375519019240) [@pandawatch88](/creator/x/pandawatch88) 2025-10-18T13:29Z 4434 followers, XXX engagements


"Good table in case you are into snacks (I'm not neither bubble teas or cosmetics for reasons discussed many times). The best play for China snacks would actually be Douyin. Duck wing chili squid nation Vs pandan cake kaya toast land"  
[X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/1979788188534345937) [@pandawatch88](/creator/x/pandawatch88) 2025-10-19T05:54Z 4433 followers, 1517 engagements


"The track record of Ping An portfolio IPOs can only be matched by Chamath SPACs. Broken business models dodgy management auditor fights. Ping an in the arena trying things. There are probably a few lessons here. Lufax GoodDoctor OCFT"  
[X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/1911467231806165472) [@pandawatch88](/creator/x/pandawatch88) 2025-04-13T17:11Z 4420 followers, 1670 engagements


"Important chart (for me): paying ratio. (I actually don't care about the ratio I care that they pay). Then lets look at ARPUs: -TME and Meitu subscribers pay like usd2 a month. -Kingsoft WPS (not in the chart) also around usd2 a month. Is that litlle or a lot Let's see: -One year of microsoft and spotify in the US costs usd220 vs one year of WPS and tencent music in China costs usd40. China XX% cheaper. -millennials in China are paying usd35k for the cheap version of the Xiaomi YU7 and the same guys in the US are paying usd45k for the cheap version of Tesla YChina is XX% cheaper. People are"  
[X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/1943328812139434137) [@pandawatch88](/creator/x/pandawatch88) 2025-07-10T15:17Z 4420 followers, 1843 engagements


"@MaiusPartners I checked edreams lastminute hbx group web travel group. you add all of them up and don't even get to Tongcheng market cap. OTAs below Booking Trip Expedia is a tough scene"  
[X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/1961090724696408239) [@pandawatch88](/creator/x/pandawatch88) 2025-08-28T15:37Z 4423 followers, XXX engagements


"Lol. Well hey for gp owners at fund X and above I will allow it jean salata or david liu or shan or richard ong.as long as it is a special edition one pls dont show up with same as the KKR associate. No way a PE fund X guy shows up with nautilus to see US uni endowment guys wearing apples. Hopefully (for him)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/1967573665614291076) [@pandawatch88](/creator/x/pandawatch88) 2025-09-15T12:58Z 4429 followers, XXX engagements


"How much are Anta shares crapping on Monday in HK Dare to bring Arc'teryx to the office (for a very passionate prose on the drama check out @ZichenWanghere article)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/1969798712743588089) [@pandawatch88](/creator/x/pandawatch88) 2025-09-21T16:19Z 4429 followers, 5928 engagements


"Moutai Feitian prices seems to follow real estate rather than Chinext. You can now get current year Moutai at HKIA for HKD2.2k. It used to be HKD3.6-3.8k couple of years ago (and HKD1.5k XX years ago). The interesting thing with this luxury product is even if the price goes back down to hkd1.5k the brand power will remain because actually people enjoy drinking it. On the other hand LVMH leather products or AP/Pateks etc must maintain list price to preserve brand power since the only value they provide is signaling"  
[X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/1978851391205675394) [@pandawatch88](/creator/x/pandawatch88) 2025-10-16T15:51Z 4420 followers, 2118 engagements


"The trade war rhetoric makes you think XX% of the revenue of China bluechip companies comes from US exports. The actual number is. 3%. For comparison Taiwan is close to XX% Korea 20%. If you go down the MSCI China list the first company in the top XX with meaningful exposure to US is probably Wuxi Biologics. Rest negligible. Exports are more of a SME thing which is of course very important for the economy. But shows the majority of the profit from trade today is retained in the US not in China. No large companies in China have been built directly from profits from exports. Obviously this is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/1979808487342481518) [@pandawatch88](/creator/x/pandawatch88) 2025-10-19T07:15Z 4434 followers, 3607 engagements


"@kjoules Pilot "Tis but a scratch""  
[X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/1980103337728225334) [@pandawatch88](/creator/x/pandawatch88) 2025-10-20T02:46Z 4434 followers, XXX engagements


"Meituan total chad up XX% today joins $TME $TCOM as one of the few China Maleficent X with positive performance YTD. Early Feb was down 23%. $BABA still down X% $BIDU XX% $JD 🐕 🏠 Index YTD: Hangsengtech -X% Chinext -X% vs ARKK shitcos -X% Nasq +7%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/1763568142343970851) [@pandawatch88](/creator/x/pandawatch88) 2024-03-01T14:13Z 4432 followers, XXX engagements


"Ok so Kingsoft 3888 down XX% in two days because the new game launched July 2nd is not top XX in steam. Profound dislike for media content stocks here. Kingsoft profits fluctuate 60/40 40/60 games/productivity software. Dear Lei: Hope this email finds you well. 1-get a HK listing for KSO 2-distribute KC and KSO shares to existing 3888 holders ok lah The sooner we split this thing and slap a 10x to games and 30x to software (trading at 80x onshore today) the better. And don't get me started with the usd3bn of cash on BS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/1940958611657969733) [@pandawatch88](/creator/x/pandawatch88) 2025-07-04T02:19Z 4432 followers, 1220 engagements


"2025YTD China pharma licensing deals to Global players already above FY24 in USD value. This is one of the reason the sector is verry hath. I have a small company specific bet let's see what happens. Highly speculative. To play market volume and theme: Hengrui CSPC Hansoh Innovent etc fine. Keep in mind pharma is still So Small as a sector in the China indexes. In Europe and US is top X sector. It will get there. In 2050"  
[X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/1943688570189025405) [@pandawatch88](/creator/x/pandawatch88) 2025-07-11T15:07Z 4432 followers, 1088 engagements


"Kingsoft back to square one for 2025. It is breaking so many hearts this year: first everyone excited on AI for their office software then they say monetization slow. second everybody excited about the game pipeline then Mecha crashes in Steam So here we are 16x PE cash half of market cap and 20-30% discount to sotp (my sotp you do yours). Next catalyst results end of Aug. They started minibuybacks last week. They like it below XX like post 1Q25. If you put a XX% discount on cash XX% discount to Kingsoft Cloud and value games at 5x PE you are getting Kingsoft Office at a fair 25x PE. The same"  
[X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/1944430324408332381) [@pandawatch88](/creator/x/pandawatch88) 2025-07-13T16:14Z 4431 followers, 1351 engagements


"Kuaishou and Wuxi Apptec raising from the ashes in 2025. Beauty Farm small stonk pumping. Moutai still holding at 20x PE despite the double whammy of buyers stuffed and party-not-party regulation enforcement (last time around in 2014 - life is a flat circle - it got to 10-12x PE and price proceeded to 10x from there). Imagine they get serious about buybacks with all that cash"  
[X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/1949105398679744814) [@pandawatch88](/creator/x/pandawatch88) 2025-07-26T13:51Z 4433 followers, 1489 engagements


"Now what a rough Q for Kingsoft. Profit down by half. It was expected bad but this bad The only positive is the KSO top line acceleration from X% in Q1 to XX% in Q2. But KSO profit flattish lot's of spend on marketing and engineers to come up with AI stuff. The gaming thing I wont comment on. Disgrace. 25x PE. Half the market cap in cash. Buyback for ants ongoing. Pls list KSO in HKEX and give us the shares. You can keep the stub I don't need it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/1958095002606899273) [@pandawatch88](/creator/x/pandawatch88) 2025-08-20T09:13Z 4431 followers, 1890 engagements


"Europe first blood. X - X (pre tariffs)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/1971584626650210321) [@pandawatch88](/creator/x/pandawatch88) 2025-09-26T14:36Z 4432 followers, XXX engagements


"Everything you always wanted to know but were afraid to ask. September edition"  
[X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/1972995878240825629) [@pandawatch88](/creator/x/pandawatch88) 2025-09-30T12:04Z 4431 followers, 24.5K engagements


"@RYANHINGSHING"  
[X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/1972997499754574165) [@pandawatch88](/creator/x/pandawatch88) 2025-09-30T12:10Z 4432 followers, XXX engagements


"Refresh good pod on Fastenal if you are looking at JD Industrials IPO coming up"  
[X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/1973286285856157951) [@pandawatch88](/creator/x/pandawatch88) 2025-10-01T07:18Z 4432 followers, 2394 engagements


"The bubble in Seoul real estate keeps going prices up 3x in XX years and from 1.8x the national avg to 2.6x. Feels totally artificial because Seoul has plenty of space for new developments right in the city center (the pic is in Myeong dong 1.5km from SFC/Westin Chosun 1km to Lotte/Shinseage etc many lots like this not even X stories villas but literally entire blocks of shacks from the 60s). The bubble means everyone has FOMO and many of them deep anxiety about not being able to ever own a flat. In an already mega competitive society this throws gasoline on fire. Crazy and a bit sad"  
[X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/1977288516993536385) [@pandawatch88](/creator/x/pandawatch88) 2025-10-12T08:21Z 4431 followers, 50.5K engagements


"Baba JD and Meituan investment (or expenses if you are into gaap) in Quick Commerce during Q2 were rmb12-14bn each (usd2bn). This erased JD and Meituan Q2 ebit. Zero. Alibaba just guided this number to be rmb35bn/usd5bn for the quarter ended September 🫩 JD and Meituan ebit in Q3 last year was rmb12-15bn. yOu Do tHE mATh. No wonder share buybacks were put on hold. Looks like it will be Alibaba and not the regulator who decides when this ends"  
[X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/1977760546977157494) [@pandawatch88](/creator/x/pandawatch88) 2025-10-13T15:37Z 4432 followers, 4955 engagements


"I missed this. I guess the enemy of my enemy is my friend JD🤝Meituan"  
[X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/1978430751235293291) [@pandawatch88](/creator/x/pandawatch88) 2025-10-15T12:00Z 4433 followers, 1211 engagements


"For tradewar tealeaves enjoyors today's pic of Tim Apple meeting Wang is being pumped by every China government news outlet on X from China Daily to Global times plus X more of them plus retweeted by consulates and ambassador to US etc. I always find it funny that in public the China vs US style is so different but then when the rubber hits the road behind close doors the style may not be too dissimilar. In public Chinese officials have no problem taking pics with Tim Apple Melon Musk Evan Greenberg or Dalio while for US officials a pic with the CATL or Xiaomi founder is like kryptonite."  
[X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/1979040237205753917) [@pandawatch88](/creator/x/pandawatch88) 2025-10-17T04:22Z 4431 followers, 3519 engagements


"Chinese stonks performance since Sep 1st (which is when all China companies finished reporting Q2 they take their time): Index: --Hang Seng Tech flattish (up XX% then back down) --HSI CSI XXX Chinext also all flat. Like if September did not exist Top performers holding to gains (for now): --BABA still up XX% --CATL still up XX% Worst performers💩: --most of the growth small caps --Inspur DE -XX% --Meitu -XX% --ATrenew -XX% --Futu -XX% Worst largecap💩: --Xiaomi -XX% Interesting divergence 1: --JD up X% Meituan down X% (remember they used to trade like synchronized swimmers) Interesting"  
[X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/1979049525089050701) [@pandawatch88](/creator/x/pandawatch88) 2025-10-17T04:59Z 4431 followers, 3020 engagements


"8 years into US China trade war and people with a fundamental bias still reading weekly headlines is wild to me"  
[X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/1979421097650196856) [@pandawatch88](/creator/x/pandawatch88) 2025-10-18T05:35Z 4434 followers, 1819 engagements


"This a useful mapping of China vs RoW semiconductor manufacturing supply chain by UBS. Obviously the China names are 2-3 generations behind the RoW but it is a national emergency so they will grow fast and gain share given localization efforts. At chip level not much to play. You cannot buy Huawei Cambricon is an early stage punt MooreThreads same once it IPOs. WFE is more interesting with Naura trading in line with AMAT and LRCX at like 9x P/S (this is a huge multiple the sector is pumped historical range pre 2020 for AMAT/LRCX was like 2-4x). WFE is historically very cyclical. A positive"  
[X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/1979539599937708268) [@pandawatch88](/creator/x/pandawatch88) 2025-10-18T13:26Z 4434 followers, 10.6K engagements


"@NecroCapital Less than JPY"  
[X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/1979784926447939856) [@pandawatch88](/creator/x/pandawatch88) 2025-10-19T05:41Z 4432 followers, XX engagements


"OpenAI revenue projections: usd200bn 2030. Very conservative. (Microsoft is at usd280bn revenue today after XX years.) (Meta is at usd180bn revenue after XX years.) Obviously management puts that number out there among other things so that investors can go to investment committee with: "in our prudent downside scenario we cut management projections by 50%. I talked to Sam he said we are crazy. Then we slap a 10x multiple (discount to msft) and we get to usd1tr valuation. That's a 2x from our usd500bn entry. We can't lose here guys." Once this stalls "democratization of private markets" can't"  
[X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/1979796530010984825) [@pandawatch88](/creator/x/pandawatch88) 2025-10-19T06:27Z 4434 followers, 1520 engagements


"Xiaomi makes usd25bn revenue outside of China. Of that US accounts for zero. Haier and Lenovo make XX% of their total revenue in the US. Smaller consumer electronics names like Anker and Shark Ninja well above 50%. China brands keep going to the US: Miniso Popmart Luckin Unitree. Lei wen Xiaomi US Let's pump it. Tell Bessent you will make a factory there to make stanley mugs look alike. We can add usd10-15bn revenue easy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/1980167044537749938) [@pandawatch88](/creator/x/pandawatch88) 2025-10-20T06:59Z 4434 followers, 7860 engagements