#  @pandawatch88 goldenlabubuwatch goldenlabubuwatch posts on X about china, baba, in the, money the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1558733876176232448/interactions)  - [--] Week [-------] +93% - [--] Month [-------] +198% - [--] Months [---------] +154% - [--] Year [---------] +151% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1558733876176232448/posts_active)  - [--] Month [---] -17% - [--] Months [---] -4.80% - [--] Year [-----] +16% ### Followers: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1558733876176232448/followers)  - [--] Week [-----] +2.90% - [--] Month [-----] +7.60% - [--] Months [-----] +54% - [--] Year [-----] +142% ### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::1558733876176232448/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [finance](/list/finance) 35.29% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) 32.35% [countries](/list/countries) 31.18% [stocks](/list/stocks) 13.53% [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) 3.53% [social networks](/list/social-networks) 2.94% [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations) 2.94% [currencies](/list/currencies) 1.76% [gaming](/list/gaming) 1.18% [fashion brands](/list/fashion-brands) 1.18% **Social topic influence** [china](/topic/china) #3160, [baba](/topic/baba) #2686, [in the](/topic/in-the) 11.76%, [money](/topic/money) 10.59%, [business](/topic/business) 9.41%, [if you](/topic/if-you) 8.24%, [growth](/topic/growth) 8.24%, [to the](/topic/to-the) 7.65%, [ai](/topic/ai) 7.65%, [tencent](/topic/tencent) #171 **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@akl_019](/creator/undefined) [@aceboy8844](/creator/undefined) [@capitalatrisk23](/creator/undefined) [@drewcohenmoney](/creator/undefined) [@1lemonaday](/creator/undefined) [@achillesdes](/creator/undefined) [@phil_hk](/creator/undefined) [@maiuspartners](/creator/undefined) [@globalstockpick](/creator/undefined) [@jojo_capital](/creator/undefined) [@jdmsparky](/creator/undefined) [@akl019](/creator/undefined) [@morechocoftw123](/creator/undefined) [@amkotako](/creator/undefined) [@grok](/creator/undefined) [@trackdalf](/creator/undefined) [@dabao_](/creator/undefined) [@the_pro_invest](/creator/undefined) [@ryanhingshing](/creator/undefined) [@thezackzhu](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Yum China Holdings, Inc. Common Stock (YUMC)](/topic/$yumc) [Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)](/topic/microsoft) [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$googl) [Shopify Inc (SHOP)](/topic/$shop) [IBM (IBM)](/topic/ibm) [Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST)](/topic/costco) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "My man Lei wearing aquamarine blue to make sure we can see him in the photo 🐬" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2021607008084935092) 2026-02-11T15:27Z [----] followers, 14.9K engagements "imagine 3am about to send the IC memo out VP to anayst last-last-last change "just ask claude to expand the IRR scenario table a bit so that the 18% shows up in the middle and we're done you can send out good job" . 2788% appears in the middle feeds straight to the powerpoint deck automatically updating all charts and text Claude automatically decides to change entry price range and run [--] divi recaps pre exit automatically updates the valuation rationale for paying 300x EV/EBITDA the clock ticks 3:01am Anthropic held a webinar for Claude for Excel. They didnt do a real-time demo since as" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2022135488719859911) 2026-02-13T02:27Z [----] followers, 16.2K engagements "Mobvista up 200% in [--] days because apparently it is now the Applovin of China Vobile up 40% because it is The Trade Desk and Weimob follows suit up 20% today because it is now Shopify. Bored people finding 2nd derivatives are a powerful force in markets" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/1856932469725118808) 2024-11-14T05:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Sooo are we finally going to make money on Kingsoft Donald J. Trump Truth Social Post 04:50 PM EST 10/10/25 https://t.co/xvG9dgdd4N Donald J. Trump Truth Social Post 04:50 PM EST 10/10/25 https://t.co/xvG9dgdd4N" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/1976913634296316377) 2025-10-11T07:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The unbreakable spirit of the Chinese entrepreneur 😂 Probably XYF growing loan volumes 70% in 1H25 (vs QFIN 16% and FINV 9%) is part of the reason why the regulator showed up with a hammer to stop the circus" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/1992608655519453211) 2025-11-23T14:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The JGCs are going to do an heroic job if they price JD Industrials inside the advertised range which implies 37-45x LTM PE while the parent is trading at 9x. I like the business. Great CF asset light etc. The comp here may be Fastenal at 40x LTM PE. JD Industrials growing faster at 20% vs Fastenal at 5-10%. But if we are not getting a discount because of the name there is no fun. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1997168875167690889 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1997168875167690889" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/1997168875167690889) 2025-12-06T04:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Excellent. New shareholder return program. Now we know why people are selling things like copart and csu. As More Chinese Firms Swap Cash Dividends for Freebies Analysts Question Long-Term Viability https://t.co/9xS2SL3oTC As More Chinese Firms Swap Cash Dividends for Freebies Analysts Question Long-Term Viability https://t.co/9xS2SL3oTC" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/1998710776308302260) 2025-12-10T11:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Wuxi Apptec destroying the competition YTD (even more if you separate the lackluster China client business). Bouncing around hkd100 at 20x PE added some more. Let's pray for a mild Biosecure Act and this thing to rip earnings 30% in [----] PE to 30x and +50% divi/buyback payout. Am I asking too much Dr Ge. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2001323482437894508 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2001323482437894508" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2001323482437894508) 2025-12-17T16:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@jdmsparky it's a tight race with Jiayin for the title of dodgiest listed Chinese online lender but I think YRD wins just because of their auditor" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2002593215497769378) 2025-12-21T04:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "I just went through the Fundsmith letter to see how he frames [--] years of underperformance. First things first huge credit to the guy for building a usd20bn business in Europe that charges 1% p.a. Second also credit for very solid decisions along the way like not selling Meta in [----] as they burned billions on metaverse. Surprising restraint for a guy that yells and sells every time a portfolio company spends 5% of cash on non-core m&a. (One must show investors strong investment principles then quietly be flexible around them.) With that out of the way Fundsmith blames underperformance on" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2010208331428966406) 2026-01-11T04:33Z [----] followers, 74K engagements "The Tongcheng guys must be like "now we go up big right" "no more PE discount right" (Then qwen agentic app with fliggy launches tomorrow) Man" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2011371271213437020) 2026-01-14T09:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Reminder that Meituan SAMR investigation (prob the closest comp to TCOM) took almost [--] months. Meituan share price actually performed in line with HSI from start to finish (I had no recollection of that). True it came right after the BABA fine so market was more ready than today (we all thought these guys would have learned how to execute regulatory action in listed companies.) Price aside in terms of company impact Meituan went from usd3bn losses in [----] to usd1bn losses in [----] as they cooled down investment (and usd2bn profit in 2023). Different investment cycle to where Trip is today. I" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2011772827553382822) 2026-01-15T12:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "man real life pinduoduo on fire +25% growth [----] at double the multiple tho 24x vs 11x PE +usd100bn GMV and presumably you can eat samosas and kebabs while shopping" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2011820096646263001) 2026-01-15T15:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Ping An loaded up on equities in [----]. Close to limit now if every other insurer is similar one less tailwind for HK dividend plays" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2011822154204004593) 2026-01-15T15:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Hang Seng Index top performer of [----] (up 3x) already up 9% this year. metals&mining bros are so back. Hokas out Cat boots in" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2013121706890502186) 2026-01-19T05:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "JD / RERE JD selling 11% stake in LX (a company that recycles and leases hardware to enterprises) after a 250% share price run this month. Uncle Liu may be a luckier trader than retailer. The JD guy on the board resigned in December so this exit was sort of telegraphed. And yet the share price rallied hard apparently on the back of some new leasing industry vibes. (or maybe it rallied 250% because they don't have association with JD anymore😰) Bit concerning for me on RERE which I really like and we had a good run together so far (will the curse of long post strike again). JD owns 34% has 2" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2013148470685978704) 2026-01-19T07:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Tangent topic to China investing this was an interesting read about migrant workers (these are guys driving Meituan and scrolling Kuaishou where they are pushed short term insurance by Yuanbao and loans from Qifu to buy a present for the girlfriend). Shiny cities and robots videos are all fun and drive progress but remember 900m people in China have not yet traveled by plane (data from the regulator as of January 2026). It is a big place. The researcher spent [--] years on this study and himself is a child of two migrant workers. How prevalent is what he describes how scientific the data to" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2013455090548609110) 2026-01-20T03:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Xiaomi doing origami with the HK listing rules to enable share buybacks continuing during the blackout period. Another innovation by Lei Jun. 🫡" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2014308299764797606) 2026-01-22T12:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Throwback to when Berkshire bought usd4bn of TSMC in 3Q22 only to sell it [--] months later. Maybe it was Todd buying perfectly timing the bottom then Warren selling it. "No Todd you dont understand its Taiwan too risky we only have usd200bn in cash cannot bet 4". Todd then pulling his hair for [--] years trying to fix Geico while watching how his usd4bn bet would have turned into usd20bn. Just a theory. Congrats to the longs. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015664178128916851 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015664178128916851" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2015664178128916851) 2026-01-26T05:52Z [----] followers, 48.8K engagements "Lol WSJ. Coupang what altimeter Gerstner cashing prepaid favors. EU to send a strongly worded letter to SAMR to demand cessation of interference with Dublin based PDD" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2016398153000669636) 2026-01-28T06:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Chris Hohn can't stop winning. What's going on gas turbines aero engines gpus memory shortages shortages as far as the eye can see. Maybe they all feel 2026-2030 is the last chance to make money before YMTC CXMT ramp up memory and AECC the CJ1000 bringing the prices of both down like if they were solar panels. [----] people are going to use RAM sticks to fill potholes. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016525533425918369 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016525533425918369" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2016525533425918369) 2026-01-28T14:55Z [----] followers, 41.5K engagements "BABA getting the chips going sounds interesting to me. Given the ruthless competition in cloud and models in China the money may have to be made upstream in the metal or downstream in the flesh and not in the middle realm of ether (too much Trying to sound poetic. Sorry). In the US cloud makes money. It is a cartel the [--] hyperscalers milk large cap CTOs aspiring SMEs and LP money via VC funded startups. It really is a great business (though changing not in the revenue/price side but in cost to serve given investment etc). In China cloud prices are a fraction of the US. Different workloads etc" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2017100115325178111) 2026-01-30T04:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Of course gold corrected 8% hours later. Old enough to remember these guys deciding to expand the Hang Seng index from [--] to [--] constituencies literally at market top selling names at 5x PE to make space for Xiaomi and Meituan trading at 80x PE. Then you wonder why the Hang Seng is still down. Worst active 'passive' index. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017115960445194395 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017115960445194395" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2017115960445194395) 2026-01-30T06:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@the_zack_zhu True though Bytedance was born when everyone already had a smartphone in their hand" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2017883852929470647) 2026-02-01T08:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@morechocoftw123 All the money going to the hard stuff atoms metal" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2018868789006504144) 2026-02-04T02:06Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Hitting the bbq after landing in Seoul and I can hear more mandarin than in TST. 11pm the emart24 under siege by mainland women going after Korean snacks. They are so strong. Flight to Japan cancelled Hold my soju. The kpop counter guy is getting some stares he will not be spared. I smile he knows I know. Lunar new year going to be wild. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019067600819638279 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019067600819638279" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2019067600819638279) 2026-02-04T15:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Lol Dingdong Maicai valuation bridge. "Control premium" followed by "illiquidity discount" 😂 Too lazy to do the numbers but how come is DDL just usd500m market cap when they are getting usd700m payment for this business plus they get to keep usd300m of the cash the business has today There doesnt seem to be debt remaining. Maybe because lots of outs in the agreement cheap break fee or meituan now not a reliable buyer or more likely that you will never see the cash as the founder will keep it in the company to bid for onlyfans stake. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019429176118505634" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2019429176118505634) 2026-02-05T15:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "hang seng having a rough week too but Haidilao lining yum china mengniu all are up this week and up 30% last two months. Which degen is running away from AI to bet on china consumer coming back" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2019444624826286203) 2026-02-05T16:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Good write up. Regarding the two separate points made about import substitution and IPO market open these are actually linked: capital markets self sufficiency (not relying on US capital to fund growth) is a big focus. On hardware the best a-share performing sector last year (and the year before) was electrical components/optics/pcbs benefiting from both domestic tech buildup but also exports (not everything used in US comes from taiwan the amount of China components in US DC build up is large). Not covered but important growth areas are service/IP exports. In the past a lot of this value" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2019652313590431976) 2026-02-06T06:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Shop down 40% in [--] months. .and still trading at 60x fwd PE Valuations don't matter on the way up .neither will on the way down to 10x PE And I think SHOP is a pretty good business plus the founder seems the kind of guy that can wipe the organization in shape to ride AI wave. But hey in the meantime markets. If it gets to 15x PE let me know. It's funny the market is treating $SHOP as an AI saas loser when this couldn't be further from the truth. - Agentic commerce overwhelmingly favors smaller e-commerce players are more people can discover them through ChatGPT. - $META's mentioned multiple" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2019656103613853961) 2026-02-06T06:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@amkotako Good analysis. Thing is a lot of that incremental ebit for Microsoft is coming from legacy product price up (like [---] subscriptions going up offering a copilot no-one likes nor use). Difficult to know how much of the new ebit comes from the new capex" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2019989651134771359) 2026-02-07T04:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@aceboy8844 Demand there is for sure. Can people make money out of that is a different Q. This is like telecoms serving bytes via broadband in [----]. Demand for bytes Exponential. Did they make money No cause it became flat rate" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2020155785041391943) 2026-02-07T15:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Sure lets use you analogy then too for retail. You are paying usd400 a year for a productivity tool. Whats a good proxy the current 60m retail payers of Microsoft [---] for home that pay usd100 a year Lets day we convert half of that somehow we convince 30m users to pony up usd400 a year for an AI agent tool (very few people pay that today for any subscription mind you). 30m users paying usd400 is usd12bn a year. Vs usd1tr of capex Have I made the math right What else https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020157385806082491 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020157385806082491" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2020157385806082491) 2026-02-07T15:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@brian_armstrong Keep shipping management share sales in exchange for fiat" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2020365730269868507) 2026-02-08T05:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Update. If you bought 50% down from ATH you are down another 35%. Revenue growth went negative btw. Tough times continue at the church of quality business. Creepy company going after grandmas money. Taking inheritance away from unloving sons. The church of Evolution gaming is having a rough year. Every news about deceleration is shrugged as "one-off". Infinite TAM potential pointing to "Asia" (of course) substitution "we so small compared to inperson". I'm biased as I find the company and product creepy ignore me. https://t.co/7HFdaZcmtz The church of Evolution gaming is having a rough year." [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2020473555348050269) 2026-02-08T12:23Z [----] followers, 10.8K engagements "You can count on Joey at Yum China to consistently do two things in earnings calls: -Proudly deliver the news of yet another year of MSD revenue growth and DD EPS growth: [----] revenue up 4% earnings up 11% eps up 14% usd1.5bn returned to shareholders (100% of earnings) -Proudly deliver the news of yet another outrageous pizza abuse this year is the Super Supreme with a mountain of french fries shaped like a volcano and thick lava sauce inside I'll spare you the photo. Solid well run business fairly valued IMO at 23x PE. A benchmark to beat for any mature consumer biz in China (i say mature" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2020495610995265901) 2026-02-08T13:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@BoringBiz_ China runs a usd20tr economy and nobody uses salesforce. Cannot assume that "because you've been there a long time and have a lot of functions no one uses" you are needed" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2020514339938087191) 2026-02-08T15:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Their gaming biz is good I like it. Netease is trading at 11x ev ebitda so im using that for garena. Tencent is 15x. Monee i dont like. They can dress it any way they want but it is effectively giving money to people and small merchants in emerging markets that can't borrow elsewhere in the hope of getting it back with interest and historically that has been a single digit PE multiple. Maybe they have discovered some new magic data driven way of doing it without defaults. Many tried that before too. If that's the case and we will see over a credit cycle for sure higher multiple. Until then i" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2020678375141212178) 2026-02-09T01:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "It ran up quite a bit now back to 1.6x P/S vs Yum and Luckin at 1.8x. So feels kind of fair The stock has a lot of fans given brand recognition and small size they see pizza hut china they see what happened with dominos US stock and it becomes easy to join the dots and imagine gigantic growth. People forget though (or dont know) how Dominos Japan had a tough time. I have no view on where can it go. Maybe they can get to 5k stores get 8% margin out of it and thats a 2-3x for the stock from here. Restaurants are ultra competitive in China so many options the few listed stocks struggle. They" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2020683041677734027) 2026-02-09T02:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Live from Haeunde in Busan nice weather as I wait for my coffee a mum with a stroller is sitting quietly watching with intensity the hbm4 side by side sk vs samsung comparison in finance tv and i fear for the husband arriving home tonight when he gets blamed "why are you not working at SK Cause So-min husband is." Tough times to be a Korean husband. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020704398436114734 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020704398436114734" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2020704398436114734) 2026-02-09T03:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@phil_hk What could be the story for buying here A punt on a change in regs in europe a sale of the asia biz something else" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2020769309782609936) 2026-02-09T07:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "My man Lei dressed up like a korean actor selling ginseng pills for the knee joints Lei Jun chairman and CEO of Xiaomi will host a Chinese New Year livestream show at its car business's Xiaomi Customization Service Center at [--] p.m. tomorrow he said on Weibo today. Xiaomi Auto launched customization services last September covering vehicles' paint interior https://t.co/iit0WACqbw Lei Jun chairman and CEO of Xiaomi will host a Chinese New Year livestream show at its car business's Xiaomi Customization Service Center at [--] p.m. tomorrow he said on Weibo today. Xiaomi Auto launched customization" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2020770095044444530) 2026-02-09T08:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@DrewCohenMoney Just read the netflix wb one great one 👏🏻 Took me more than [--] mins tho 😭 title was misleading" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2020881555053556067) 2026-02-09T15:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@buccocapital @JaredSleeper Tbh zoom and DocuSign numbers look even more impossible" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2021063600736174355) 2026-02-10T03:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "I can already see Gerstner getting ready his "time to get fit" open letter to software/analytics businesses. It really is a win/win here: if stocks go up later it is because of BG advice and if they stay down it is because they didn't take the advice. Cnbc interview content for [--] years. I keep looking at the names. No one wants to miss the Meta bottom at 10x PE. Problem is: 1) very few of these businesses are as good as meta 2) the ones that are are not (yet) at 10x PE 3) it was in Zuck's hand to fix the issue by stopping burning money on a future no one believed or liked while for these" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2021411841071775848) 2026-02-11T02:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@1lemonaday @robert_baiguan Brutal. 9x PE. Like if Shandong SOEs are going to fire them tomorrow and vibecode ERP" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2021562836741443725) 2026-02-11T12:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@capitalatrisk23 @jeremie0117 Chemicals to the moon (I bought Wanhua and don't even know the PE i just like the chart)" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2021601940484821124) 2026-02-11T15:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements ""everyone wants to buy"" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2021784639107727620) 2026-02-12T03:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@aceboy8844 I would point to more sellers than buyers Narrative can be "slow on AI" "baba bytedance after their top of funnel position" "games weak see netease" or just global tech risk off and tencent being the largest china cap. Who knows" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2021824514628497913) 2026-02-12T05:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Because Claude DCF uses terminal growth rate not multiple" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2021985105045250419) 2026-02-12T16:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The real US vs China competition is between Claude vs SAMR who can erase more market cap. Hey both are the price for progress power to the people (the people without shares that is)" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2022169131513250055) 2026-02-13T04:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "btw if AI ROIC does not pan out you can always pivot a small amount of your capex say usd30-40bn to get 51% BTC hash rate and send usd1.5tr to your wallet. First come first served tho. I can totally see the Meta new hires legion of doom salivating. Libra finally. BABA datacenter capex grouped in "others" alongside IBM😭 the insult. MS gives no face to China AI artisans chugging out models non-stop trained on nintendo [--] clusters. Seedance [---] is awesome. BTW I have no idea what the US is doing with all this capex. Filling up https://t.co/hOXkgQkX5i BABA datacenter capex grouped in "others"" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2022183341953626354) 2026-02-13T05:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "I fed the latest XJP speech on finance published on Qiushi a week ago (but I think it is 1-2 years older) and couple of other ones to gemini [--] pro. Asked the model to account for trends things said things not said and gave a few companies to rank them by alignment. Gemini: "If XJP were to design a tech company that fits his current vision it would look a lot like Xiaomi." (if you are here to tell me 'ackchually what about founder influence' etc go take it up with gemini) PDD gets a C. The "Algorithmic Rent-Seeker."😂 generous btw fed the same to GLM and Qwen Qwen placed Tencent above Baba" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2022204242275316221) 2026-02-13T07:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Kim Jones from LVMH/Dior to Bosideng (news from few weeks ago not new) Is he getting stock Bosideng reports today btw. 15x PE vs 18x for Anta. Similar 10-15% top line growth and ROIC. 5% divi yield + Kim Jones" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/1993883377653698858) 2025-11-27T03:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "To see how much extra TAM the usd1tr of capex can get lets use Booking as an example: -you are Google and Meta capturing 80% of the usd7bn annual marketing expenses of Booking while running an "asset light" business. So thats usd5.5bn a year. Nice. -now google and meta invest usd500bn of capex and they get: --that same budget usd5.5bn (unless you think they now get 100% of the budget because Booking stops advertising in Europe train stations or thai magazines or that AI will make people travel 50% more because somehow they have more money and so Booking marketing budget can go up. Bit of a" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2020033086436831451) 2026-02-07T07:13Z [----] followers, 71.2K engagements "Wuxi Apptec up 30% YTD and hit 52w high today alongside Wuxi Bio. Bit weird because: -the rest of global CDMOs or CROs are not doing that hot (wtf happened to Lonza and CRL btw). Some down big. Even lab equipment TMO Danaher can you now vibecode bioreactors -BTW actually on bioreactors sartorius down big ytd too which is upstream from wuxi bio -China biotech names Innovent or Beone even pharma Hengrui all consolidating. Same for services like Joinn Tigermed -only things pumping in China healthcare at the moment are for example Insilico yours for 50x P/S hey you gotta pay for AI thid is a very" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2021809464039649381) 2026-02-12T04:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "China online lenders since pre-QFIN 3Q report (they were first) to today. Tense calm after post-reporting guide adjustments. Except for XYF. Can't remember now what they said in the call something along the lines of "and if this business doesn't work out we can always do something else like trading collectibles."" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2002387428716491068) 2025-12-20T14:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Teleperformance not having fun in the age of AI. Back to [----] share price levels. Trading at 5x PE. Top line has flatlined margins still holding though coming in as the company invests in AI etc I'm not going to touch this but this is one where if (IF) they get their sht together become mega efficient with AI train models with their data and offer clients a one stop solution from simple interactions to empathetic human ones they double margins and revenue cause the need for customer service (or debt collection) is not going away. Good luck. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2012530104308748469" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2012530104308748469) 2026-01-17T14:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "retail uncle army relentless march fwd" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2014597745173270948) 2026-01-23T07:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Silver [---] Gold [----] on the same day would be something" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2014735615749980435) 2026-01-23T16:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "11% of BABA is now held by onshore investors [--] months after being included in stock connect. It is wild to me that JD Trip Baidu etc have not yet changed to dual primary listing to be eligible for stock connect and load up gambling uncles in the register. WVR are not an issue anymore. Compliance disclosures Who knows. Maybe they think there will be little onshore bid. That 11% in BABA is prob around usd30bn of onshore buying (taking the avg price for the period). The southbound inflows were around usd200bn in the same period so they captured 15% of that not bad." [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2016393406256472505) 2026-01-28T06:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "China Pet Foods and Petpal both guiding to 30-40% growth in domestic market. Brave guys. We'll see. CPF added they expect expanding margins. General Mills and Nestle Pet used to have 20% ebit margins when I looked first at this company 3-4 years ago not sure if they still do. These guys are at 10% (the 20% guys outsource to the 10% guys). Anyway if all that comes true the current 30x LTM PE sounds fair-ish. Still a tiny biz usd2bn market cap usd70m NI. How many cats and dogs in China. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017625764880126463 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017625764880126463" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2017625764880126463) 2026-01-31T15:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Some light topics discussed at [----] Norges Bank SWF annual review: "Are you making any plans in case your assets in the US are frozen or sanctioned" The fund is usd2.11tr in size. 53% (usd1.12tr) is in the US. It was 25% back in [----]. In fairness by world market cap US is 50% so Norges weighting is kind of there and well below MSCI ACWI or FTSE Global All Cap weightings which have US at 65% (as they apply discounts to EM market caps). Norges is overweight Europe and Japan which should be 14% and 4% by market cap but these guys have it at 21% and 6%. They are underweight China of course which" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2017866580605211091) 2026-02-01T07:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "S&P [---] -0.8% from ATH. Shanghai index -2% from [--] year highs. Twitterbro Composite 25% down YTD" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2018931022013079918) 2026-02-04T06:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "This chart is wild. Usd600bn capex [----] just [--] guys. To get 20% roic on that you need usd120bn new ebit say usd200-300bn new revenue. This comes on top of the usd100-200bn new revenue you should have added already for the capex you spent in [----] (and didn't). Wheres all this money going to come from Advertisers Do they have that money Consumer subscritions Middle east LP money being burned by startups Imagine Microsoft's next board meeting after hearing the google capex guide. Meanwhile Tim Cook like 🤗 China top [--] AI capex is 1/10th of this. Say baba and bytedance 20bn each the next 2" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2019782790359978085) 2026-02-06T14:38Z [----] followers, 11.8K engagements "Tag Dark days at the Tencent mines. I believe in you James. Pump us out of here" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2020801091999342734) 2026-02-09T10:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "There are many ways to make money but the one I am always most in awe of is when people do the most obvious things: "yeah [----] [----] I made 5x riding all the covid money extravaganza in the ARKK unprofitable tech garbage and sold it as the Fed telegraphed rate hikes in [----] got short some bonds too of course and end of that year as gpt3 came out and hyperscalers started to say they ramp capex I bought all the taiwan and mainland hardware component guys to make another 5x" Would love to see a manager that made 10x in [--] years going through this in the letter "you know guys dont predict just" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2021166793893806556) 2026-02-10T10:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@itsDanielWu @ohcapideas @PythiaR 10x for the CF that grows at 2-3% or 20x for the CF that grows at 20%" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2022126067293786448) 2026-02-13T01:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "BABA datacenter capex grouped in "others" alongside IBM😭 the insult. MS gives no face to China AI artisans chugging out models non-stop trained on nintendo [--] clusters. Seedance [---] is awesome. BTW I have no idea what the US is doing with all this capex. Filling up datacenters with Ferrari GPUs then using them to go shopping doing 30mph at 8000rpms. Note 1: Bytedance similar capex as baba doesn't even show up Note 2: zero Europe/Japan companies not even in "others" unacceptable foh surh https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022130906585338251 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022130906585338251" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2022130906585338251) 2026-02-13T02:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@capitalatrisk23 pls dont scare me" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2022132654527926526) 2026-02-13T02:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@liqian_ren https://x.com/Edourdoo/status/2021948994348621935s=20 🤣🤣 https://t.co/PqjUYlGD1s https://x.com/Edourdoo/status/2021948994348621935s=20 🤣🤣 https://t.co/PqjUYlGD1s" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2022133248818860269) 2026-02-13T02:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The ideal outcome of this thing is one where companies can save marketing fees (google and meta tax) and pass that on to consumers. Personal agents that can crawl shops and service providers working for you to find the best deal and not paid by them to sell you their deal would be a revolution in consumer space. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022171453647704508 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022171453647704508" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2022171453647704508) 2026-02-13T04:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@DrewCohenMoney oh for sure an amadeus or similar will still be around to offer the inventory and cross the trade but it will be your agent picking it not the platform massaging you into it based on how much ad fees they are clipping from the seller" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2022184155321389280) 2026-02-13T05:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "China was the only region growing double digits for Estee Lauder in Sep-Dec [----]. All credit to them (and the easy comp given how bad they did in 2024) because China retail sales 4Q25 growth was very weak like 2% growth. Like everyone else in cosmetics Tmall and Douyin rankings are the benchmarks they use to measure brand success. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020480015251673271 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020480015251673271" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2020480015251673271) 2026-02-08T12:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@DrewCohenMoney Making money spent on buying machines disappear from the p&l is accounting's greatest invention" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2022374343070937287) 2026-02-13T18:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "no Cambricon (*gasp*) And Kingsoft Cloud and I mean if you are going to put Yum China and SF and Gree (seriously) you may as well put QFIN and Mobvista. This feels as random as an Asia Top [--] bars list" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1973396974649897304) 2025-10-01T14:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "JD 3Q25 out. All operating profit spent on common prosperity. Blessings. Hate what you want but top line pretty good: -Retail up 10% -3P/Ads up 24% -JD Health up 29% -JD Logistics up 35% (third party)" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1988906123999482113) 2025-11-13T09:45Z [----] followers, 10.5K engagements "The last two times MSFT touched 23x PE buy-the-dippers enjoyed a 60% run up in [--] months. Are you a chicken mcfly Coco coco" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2021594656627192085) 2026-02-11T14:38Z [----] followers, 24.2K engagements "Industrials and basic materials PMs emerging from their caves" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2021745802058904025) 2026-02-12T00:38Z [----] followers, 78.2K engagements "good summary on Meituan. Basically [----] by Q RMB bn: Consol NI: [--] [--] [---] [---] Local commerce ebit: [--] [--] [---] [---] They say Q1 will be rough too because you all love free bubble tea more than you love profits. @AKL_019 we were talking a month ago how come Meituan is still trading at hkd100 a share given the position they are in. Well now closer to hkd80. Very difficult to value this thing: --If you take [----] unaffected net income and apply a 25% haircut (pick a number) to reflect a new normal on unit economics and market share they are still today at 17x PF PE. --To buy this thing you have to" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2022297584996647089) 2026-02-13T13:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "With CATL Hesai and Tencent that were already in the list I think It's a good list actually. Should be an ETF. PENTAGON ADDS ALIBABA TO LIST OF CHINESE FIRMS AIDING MILITARY PENTAGON ADDS BYD TO LIST OF CHINESE FIRMS AIDING MILITARY PENTAGON ADDS BAIDU TO LIST OF CHINESE FIRMS AIDING MILITARY PENTAGON NAMES COSCO AMONG COMPANIES AIDING CHINESE MILITARY PENTAGON LISTS HUAWEI AMONG PENTAGON ADDS ALIBABA TO LIST OF CHINESE FIRMS AIDING MILITARY PENTAGON ADDS BYD TO LIST OF CHINESE FIRMS AIDING MILITARY PENTAGON ADDS BAIDU TO LIST OF CHINESE FIRMS AIDING MILITARY PENTAGON NAMES COSCO AMONG" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2022324371361353734) 2026-02-13T14:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "I did a podcast with my pal Graham from Longriver @longriver_hk on China equities: -narratives dramas risks profits -why I added aggressively in [----] -what would make me cut exposure fast Full transcript here (lightly edited numbers included): The podcast is built around a presentation I put together to give global allocators some ammo when debating China risk/reward with their boards (though the constraint is often career risk given passionate opinions on the topic). China is the 2nd largest and most liquid equity market in the world (USD22tr). Yet 3% in global indices. People in charge of" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2022539401763680453) 2026-02-14T05:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "China sportswear not sure what's going on with Lining What a two months ride now at 18x LTM PE 6% FCF same as Anta. A year ago was 12x PE. Lining's 4Q25 operational announcement was atrocious. Are retail uncles pumping the name because of Winter Olympics But Ms. Gu wears Anta (attached). And retail uncles like Ms Gu. Cash is 40% of market cap. But that's not for you. The founder will burn it on some real estate following tradition. Ebit margin 13% vs Anta 24%. That's where the good news could come the moment they accelerate. In other sports news: [---] degrees announced 10% growth in 4Q25 which" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2023044225491960128) 2026-02-15T14:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Whichever bank is executing the $BABA stock buybacks should be commended for the skill of loading up usd5bn worth of stock in 1Q24 while not letting the price run up a tick 👏🏻" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1775191011750555894) 2024-04-02T15:58Z [----] followers, 10.8K engagements "Mauboussin and Damodaran are truly exhausting. Reminds me everytime of Munger criticism The craving for that physics-style precision". Dude 20x PE is just the present value of earnings growing at 5% (GDP+) discounted at 10% (your return requirement). Or 3% and 8%. Whatever" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1783355377721225324) 2024-04-25T04:40Z [----] followers, 77.5K engagements "@WallStCynic Sure here: "In the same way US tech giants do."" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1793658076526264823) 2024-05-23T14:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements ""China is soo cheapp". No. China PE is low not cheap and it is due to the horrific revenue deceleration 17-21 cagr vs 21-23 cagr. And no buyback or dividend is coming to save you. If you want +20x PE back on your fav stonk management needs to show they can accelerate growth" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1807020207132778812) 2024-06-29T11:56Z [----] followers, 11.4K engagements "How come no Nick Sleep fanboy speaks about him selling half of Amazon his only stock to buy Asos in [----]. The Art of Cleaning a Motorcycle whatever and [--] years of stoic guru investor letters then this. Oh man. Huge respect for doing 10x big brain or big luck both ok" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1810657993454989682) 2024-07-09T12:51Z [----] followers, 50.8K engagements "For all of you treasure hunting usd300m 5x PE microcaps remember Visa and Mastercard are a 15-20x bagger from usd50bn market cap at 20x PE in [----] (pre GFC even more) How: 12% top line cagr margin from [--] to 60% PE to 30x FCF buyback 25% nosh Voila Todd Combs saw it. I didn't" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1813597418929455555) 2024-07-17T15:31Z [----] followers, 35.4K engagements "@SanderTordoir @TheEconomist 30% of Chinese industrial companies are loss-making you say Those are rookie numbers. 40% of the Russell [----] is loss-making. Context is everything" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/1822258345081819529) 2024-08-10T13:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@DavidInglesTV Mmm yes and no. No China just bit lower than US Meta 25x PE vs Tencent at 20x Nike 22x vs Anta 17x No China actually higher than US LRCX 26x vs Naura 37x Monster 30x vs Eastroc 35x And yes of course Tesla 60x vs BYD 20x Dash ♾ vs Meituan 30x JPM 12x vs ICBC 4x " [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1831545167897358764) 2024-09-05T04:09Z [----] followers, 10.7K engagements "Kind reminder that WMT sold usd3.6bn of JD at 11% discount or [--] a share around a month ago. Life" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1839440949690167303) 2024-09-26T23:04Z [----] followers, 26.2K engagements "From the article about Ford CEO driving a Xiaomi Su7. Between sanctions and tariffs I don't expect Xiaomi in the US anytime soon (Howard Lutnick willing)" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1859412114391376043) 2024-11-21T01:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The level of anti China commentary in interviews/podcasts with US finance and VC bros is getting extreme. Anything goes. Copy pollute spy force labour subsidize mercantilism no reciprocity unfair food too spicy. Peak echo chamber ESG Greta vibes. Pendulum ever swing back" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1868938408720232812) 2024-12-17T08:36Z [----] followers, 17.8K engagements "These were the [--] largest European companies by market cap at the beginning of [----] Europe does mag7 differently" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1871153404174901354) 2024-12-23T11:18Z [----] followers, 98.3K engagements "Brutal but let me cope: the usd250 hotel room in NYC back in [----] is now usd500. The usd150 hotel room in Shanghai in [----] is now usd130. If SPX is your currency/wealth in [----] you have to sell the same number of shares as in [----] to pay for the room (or sandwich or skipass)" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1874647909708546234) 2025-01-02T02:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@RampCapitalLLC You can use it without plugging the usb. You only need the usb if you want to move the pointer on the screen" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/1881152035808309551) 2025-01-20T01:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The Seawolf Capital guys made 66% return in [----]. Very wowe. I think it is a family office now I remember they made like +150% in [----] shorting tech and GPs and long energy. Fun place. For [----] zero fuks about AI long China Brazil and Gold. Total chad" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1889285840104480966) 2025-02-11T12:10Z [----] followers, 138.6K engagements "@DynamicMoats https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/2025012983/the-easy-money-will-be-driven-by-trump-and-the-dollar-not-ai-say-big-short-investors https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/2025012983/the-easy-money-will-be-driven-by-trump-and-the-dollar-not-ai-say-big-short-investors" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/1889294750509117905) 2025-02-11T12:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Is this how US investors feel every day" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/1890323439212265533) 2025-02-14T08:53Z [----] followers, 16.9K engagements "Coatue sold 90% of all their big China names in Q4 and bought [--] China loan sharks: QFIN and LX. Interesting I thought as I own qfin. Then I check the chart of LX. 😱 what happened 4x I am such a nerddd I comp all the loan sharks but missed Lexin in Q3 I shd fire myself" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1890728344636829856) 2025-02-15T11:42Z [----] followers, 13.8K engagements "This is such an important thread if you are looking at Chinese companies from US/Europe. Do not project what you have at home or you may end up buying Baidu. You are used to browsing the web for sites that give you answers or enable action. China forget it. 11/ OBSERVATION #3 - What does the internet look like without the web Apparently China I don't think I saw a single person open a browser at any point on my trip. For my extended family the "internet" is WeChat + maybe 5-10 smartphone apps (nobody uses PCs outside of work) 11/ OBSERVATION #3 - What does the internet look like without the" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1890950690970726575) 2025-02-16T02:25Z [----] followers, 14K engagements "Three takeaways from Xi speech at the official meeting coverage: -founders to "get rich first" (ah we miss those days) -SOEs and local governments to pay their pending bills to private companies (with what not sure) -a comment about where is the love" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/1891464707648729480) 2025-02-17T12:28Z [----] followers, 43.4K engagements "These BABA results a year ago would be stock down 5-10% Love the fintwit high fives it's a top position for me but TTG 2% ebit growth is poor. CMR 9% growth means nothing in a platform company. I charge u fee revenue up i give u freebies ebit down. Will listen to the call" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1892626039161160183) 2025-02-20T17:23Z [----] followers, 14.4K engagements "China vs US valuation snapshot after rally. Ecommerce remains a drama. JD PDD at 11x 12x vs BABA now 18x. wow. She dragged all down bought some computers and then took off leaving them in the mud. Cunning. My boi Meituan at 23x common. Compounderbro Costco looks attractive" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1892944854956777898) 2025-02-21T14:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Not a bad run for [--] weeks. China robots flying cars autonomous driving.A bit overbought perhaps or are we doing +800% this year "China is cheap if you look at MSCI China vs ." Yeah yeah ok multiples: Ubtech 32x Horizon 47x Ehang 28x (These are price / sales lol)" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1893659514525642948) 2025-02-23T13:49Z [----] followers, 10.2K engagements "@atelicinvest Analysts should do a [--] year internship at the finance department of a listco to see first hand the CFO putting artisan finishing touches on the quarterlies "yeah lets move this here and this to the next". They will learn to respect the craft and relax in the q&a. Its just numbers" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/1893707017933541787) 2025-02-23T16:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "BABA cloud this cloud that but remember the core of the business is retail. Ecommerce EBIT accounts for 110% of consolidated EBIT. If (IF) China macro comes back a 10% growth ecommerce EBIT is equivalent to tripling cloud EBIT. That's the biggest driver of fundamentals" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/1894009135357645041) 2025-02-24T12:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The strongest feature of the US market is the investor's deep seated belief that index drawdowns will not last too long" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/1896742894058479895) 2025-03-04T02:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Sorry why is everyone complaining today what's the problem (Yes i left baba out cause otherwise it doesnt look as nice)" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1896983232782197222) 2025-03-04T17:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "SEA Ltd is really loved by the market and in many US portfolios I guess with parallels to MELI. But man look at that loan book growing at 60% acquiring 5m first time borrowers in emerging markets to support ecommerce GMV growth. Uff" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/1897182120055062654) 2025-03-05T07:07Z [----] followers, 22.2K engagements "Global investor feedback on China tech (UBS March 5). "Among our meeting with 60+ investors only 1-2 asked about macro the rest mainly focused on AI" "After the American First Investment Policy Memo some investors are diversifying into less direct AI names like e-com and OTA."" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1898727850418856406) 2025-03-09T13:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Imagine working a job where [--] days ago you were chillin holding BABA JD at 12x 18x PE good biz earnings growing sending cash to shareholders. They go down 12% on external event with no direct impact on earnings. At 20% down the risk boss taps you "sell them now just in case"" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/1909223437643751836) 2025-04-07T12:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "If Euronext and Deutsche Boerse mean business they should be having zooms with all Chinese ADRs CFOs today plus their regulator. Instead I imagine them putting the finishing touches on the [----] ESG report available online or printed in biodegradable banana skins by request" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1910583444972675548) 2025-04-11T06:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "PDD has more cash than JD has market cap. He truly is a Buffett disciple" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1912531490543411292) 2025-04-16T15:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "I bought China Pet Foods in [----] on the back of covid zero pet ownership trends in China etc. I sold it in [----] cause I got bored of waiting. The stock was driven by US export seasonality (originally an OEM) ignoring China market (they were investing in their own brands market was skeptical). And then. To add insult I just found out someone at home bought their brand of treats for the dogs" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/1916390475998847164) 2025-04-27T07:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "I just had some fun looking at the Coatue presentation from May [----] (back in the middle of the post covid yolo tech crash drama). Coatue was already down 17% for the year. Laffont went 80% into cash. Good call they ended the year down 19% vs Tiger Global down 50% (and out). The fun part is in the "looking ahead" section of the presentation where they present the "good companies" worth to bet on for the long term. Let's look at the names they had in the deck and what happened [--] years later: (here is where you will realize nobody knows shit the game is about spreading risk in positive EV bets" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1920029137487724735) 2025-05-07T08:13Z [----] followers, 46.7K engagements ""Do not retaliate and you will be rewarded." Vietnam and Taiwan now sitting at higher tariffs than China. Korea Japan about the same. Law of the jungle" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/1921856977711325508) 2025-05-12T09:16Z [----] followers, 64.7K engagements "Tencent is like a Swiss watch. 4:30pm every quarter cuckoo comes out with 20% NI growth. Again and again" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1922580700827459958) 2025-05-14T09:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "With friends like this" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/1922865928015937670) 2025-05-15T04:05Z [----] followers, 14.6K engagements "BABA announced. Yellow cells now green. CFO booking this quarter the bare minimum to turn LTM back to positive growth. It is appreciated tho. Lets now read the rest of the stuff" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/1922959954735960517) 2025-05-15T10:19Z [----] followers, 12.6K engagements "BABA results not bad. Of course stock down 5% premarket cause traditions are traditions. First things first retail is growing ok and accelerating double digit CMR 12%. Bit slower than JD 16% but not too bad given macro. Cloud also doing fine at 17% growth. Both businesses doing better top line than EBIT though. To offset all the other businesses are reducing losses and frankly at consolidated level my adj EBIT is up 76%. CF is good divi is good. Retail: -CMR up 12% total retail up 9% and ebit up 8%. All accelerating. -For comparison JD marketplace was up 16% total retail up 16% and ebit up" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1922975585468547550) 2025-05-15T11:21Z [----] followers, 12K engagements "I bought BYD a year ago at HKD220. The share wasn't particularly cheap at 22x PE for a car company but I thought: "Lets take a punt on the brand. International investors know the name already but only now are starting to see BYDs on the road. Friends in Europe sending me pics. Smells like at some point FOMO could hit" The stock had gone nowhere for [--] years 2021-2024 despite revenue up 4x and margins from [--] to 5%. Reason is of course all priced-in during [----] when the stock rerated from 1x P/S to 5x P/S. So I am [--] months in January [----] and we were still rangebound. Plus the stock had given" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1923977538277142624) 2025-05-18T05:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Good news just received my allocation 👏 With friends like this. https://t.co/XzgeKltJ2R With friends like this. https://t.co/XzgeKltJ2R" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/1924328149434900735) 2025-05-19T04:55Z [----] followers, 11.3K engagements "PDD doing PDD things" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/1927321786271617099) 2025-05-27T11:11Z [----] followers, 10.9K engagements "China ecommerce wars drama. Saying "in China profits get competed away to zero" is typically taken as a sign of mental acuity and well traveled business expertise. As with many such cases nobody bothers to do the numbers. Stealing from yesterday's post: "How much has the China ecommerce profit pool shrunk after [--] years of ruthless competition and regulatory tightening" BABA JD PDD Douyin Kuaishou: [-----] retail EBIT usd28bn [-----] retail EBIT usd48bn The profit pool is up 1.7x during horrific macro no stimmy competition from new entrants and regulatory crackdown. Not bad definitely doesn't look" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1929128629830578628) 2025-06-01T10:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Yes the Hang Seng index is still below precovid levels. And below levels seen [--] years ago. Do you know [--] years ago the Hang Seng index was 80% financials + utilities + property + infra + telcos Do you also know in [----] they decided to expand index components from [--] to [--] to add new economy / tech at peak valuations (baba wuxi bio meituan xiaomi.). Do you know what happens to a portfolio when you sell stuff at 5x to buy things at 100x and stonks go down afterwards Now that you know all this you can look at the Hang Seng and understand: 1) why comparison with other indexes may be irrelevant" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1930753703067132165) 2025-06-05T22:28Z [----] followers, 15.9K engagements "Important topic. Sending money back to shareholders has only become trendy for Chinese companies recently especially among two groups: 1-central SOEs pushed by the government to increase payouts and buyback shares. We have now Moutai sending 85% of net income to shareholders and starting buybacks (modest) for the first time ever. 2-big tech/internet: Tencent at 43% and JD and BABA at 70% not bad. Consumer names send back a lot as expected Yum China +100% payout Nongfu and CRB 60-70% but even names growing revenue at 40-50% like Eastroc or Giant send back 60% of NI to shareholders. On the" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1931100279820169513) 2025-06-06T21:25Z [----] followers, 15.7K engagements "And 40% of companies in Russell [----] are losing money. So what's the conclusion The % of Chinese industrial firms that are losing money is at its highest since [----] https://t.co/07UnRAKTLs https://t.co/5HUZ4UJwBZ The % of Chinese industrial firms that are losing money is at its highest since [----] https://t.co/07UnRAKTLs https://t.co/5HUZ4UJwBZ" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/1933676614107476155) 2025-06-14T00:03Z [----] followers, 10.4K engagements "Richard Liu talks. How can you not love uncle Liu and JD Some highlights below and link to the speech. (btw keep in mind there's a lot self promotion here the audience is JD troops which he is making work overtime during [----] while launching [--] businesses at the same time and hiring 3k employees a day). IT WAS TIME First things first sounds like he was bored and stressed. He says historically they launched a new biz every [--] years (logistics healthcare industrials finance prop dev.). But [----] marked [--] years without starting anything new. He says these past [--] years of his entrepreneurial career" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1935234828670230668) 2025-06-18T07:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "50% of SEA Ltd EBIT comes from making loans (1Q25) And they are moving from loans in support of ecommerce to just loans. "Drop BNPL it's cleaner" They consider 60% growth in loan book prudent😂 And also think that giving money to the guy with no better alternative than borrowing at 40% interest gives ample room to deliver healthy margins. tic toc tic toc SEA Ltd is really loved by the market and in many US portfolios I guess with parallels to MELI. But man look at that loan book growing at 60% acquiring 5m first time borrowers in emerging markets to support ecommerce GMV growth. Uff." [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/1938889112079262199) 2025-06-28T09:16Z [----] followers, 11K engagements "Yiwu is listed wait whaaat I had no idea. If you are interested in owning China largest bazaar. usd15bn market cap up 160% in [--] year despite trade war sells 98% of US Christmas decorations. And 99% of straws. I really need to look into this thing closely. Majority of revenue from renting the stalls where secondary rents (between merchants) are apparently 5-10x the official one. And then a growing share of net profit comes from online B2B and payments. Homework" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1939348507892265447) 2025-06-29T15:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Meituan price almost back to September [----] pre China policy pump. Not even JD has gone back that much. The founder call to war in 1Q25 results was met with share price up +15% the following two weeks which was weird. Now people getting back to reality and the founder promise of battle losses (no guidance was given). Plus for sure the lack of buybacks at these levels. They did a buyback for ants at the end of May to offset SBC and that was it. The company saving cash is getting people worried They have usd20bn net vs usd100bn market cap. Valuation: 18x LTM PE (16x core ex new biz losses) 5%" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1939963421677568291) 2025-07-01T08:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Ok I bought some more TCOM in US to add to the HK ones this morning. Thesis Catalyst and Metrics. Thesis: the valuation is fine at 20x PE 5% FCF no "hidden gem at 10x PE" here but I think there is more in this name: --the price has been lagging (-8% YTD vs index and Tencent +24%) because people don't like the impact on margins from the current investment in Asia/Europe. --but Trip is not a market dog though it has an audience the price is up 80% since December [----] same as Tencent vs market 50%. Fans just need to get itchy again (see catalysts) --I like the fundamental story anyway:" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1947335907000144294) 2025-07-21T16:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "On Cluseau's post abt profit upside on Chinese companies which is an interesting topic to me: The short answer. --yes there is specific margin potential in some names (JD and Xiaomi for sure IMO) but what the government wants is EBIT up not necessarily MARGIN up. Bigger pie via better more expensive products and not more efficiency at platform level. Why The Long if you are bored: --the problem is not low prices leading to low margins at the large internet/chinese listed cos. The margins are actually world class. (ebit margins: 45% TTG 25% Meituan well above Dash/uber Trip 30% same as" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1947537842445684747) 2025-07-22T06:02Z [----] followers, 10.6K engagements "Rereading some articles about in Apple [----] when the stock was down almost 50% and trading at 9x PE. VC guys and fund managers at the time all saying "smartphone market obviously saturated" and pointing as Samsung competition. "Very bearish on Apple unless they launch cheaper models to compete". Work on other devices like TVs or do M&A were suggested solution too. Stock did 10x in [--] years. Nobody knows anything. Even the ones supposed to be informed" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/1948363451077972137) 2025-07-24T12:43Z [----] followers, 10.8K engagements "The Chinese government doing everything possible to get people into equities where btw capital gains as of today are tax exempted. Tell me about capitalism" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1952718870319697952) 2025-08-05T13:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "This article about China US IPOs misses the key point (obviously not mentioned by people quoted in the article since it goes against their own business): US is a disclosure regime HK is a compliance regime. Meaning you can IPO utter garbage in the US as long as you disclose it in risk factors: "we dont have license to operate" "we steal from customers who dont know how much we charge them" "the audit firm is owned by our founder's cousin". In HK [--] or [--] banks must take the role of Sponsor in the IPO meaning the deal team and counsel need to spend [--] months DDing the company is a viable business" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1952923278689091809) 2025-08-06T02:42Z [----] followers, 13.7K engagements "HKD rates continue to be very crazy [--] month Hibor 0.88% vs [--] month rates in the US at 4.35%. (for the foreign students new to the classroom the HKD is pegged to the USD which gives poor Kyle Bass constant ulcers. For Gen Zs: HKD is the original USD stablecoin you have invented nothing here.) Interactive Brokers are very cheeky making bank out of it charging 100bps more spread for HKD vs USD as people move margin to HKD to lower financing costs. Capitalism is outrageous. (Btw for UBS in HK the spread is lower for HKD than USD opposite to IBKR)" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1952966792210677788) 2025-08-06T05:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Tencent reporting soon are you excited then JD then BABA. Tencent will show growth above market on advertising say c.20% and everyone will clap ooohh AI is working share price up (or is it impressions going up). BABA will show DD growth in cloud maybe starting with a [--] and everything will clap oohh price up (despite the fact ecommerce EBIT is like 120% of consolidated EBIT and cloud a drop in the bucket for now). JD will show up with faster growth in ecommerce than BABA and margin up ex food delivery and everyone will be like "buarrgghh". Poor guys showing accelerated growth for [--] quarters" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1955543152145863091) 2025-08-13T08:13Z [----] followers, 25.1K engagements "Rough year so far for the quality compounder connoisseurs. If Costco turns south Armageddon" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1957475982077788432) 2025-08-18T16:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Tencent at +4Y highs and 13% below ATH 🥲 Baba.well. let's give them something a gold star for the fridge Tencent is the better company (today) for sure but the share performance difference with BABA is a bit unfair though: Tencent: --NI in [----] was usd13bn --Today is usd29bn LTM more than double --Share count down 5% --Share price still 13% below [----] ATH --Ok valuation vibes whatever. But BABA: --NI in [----] was usd12bn --Today is usd20bn LTM. Sure not double still +1.7x not bad --Share count down 18% --And 60% below ATH feels abusive" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1959895374925361434) 2025-08-25T08:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "All this Meituan drama for just rmb1bn negative ebit you are all a bunch of babies. Look at 2021.those were the days. Enter strong shiba weak shiba meme. Listening to the call now. Xing "There is nothin more exciting than being the underdog in a big game". He is not looking at food delivery he is going for instashopping all-in. Love it when investment gurus quote the classic 'the superior investor shall favor founder led companies' . 'align your chips with owner operators'. such wisdom" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1961027172598231535) 2025-08-28T11:24Z [----] followers, 10.8K engagements "Ok got through the Meituan call and numbers etc and my hangover too (almost). My views if anyone cares: -First Meituan is not going away. Food delivery was a usd5bn profit pool last year at [--] rmb profit per order (and I would not call last year the pinnacle of China consumer macro). There won't be less food delivery in [----] than today there will be more. And if deflation stops the average order will grow from rmb30 to maybe rmb35-40-45 and that extra % of commissions flows straight down to the bottom line moving margin up. Plus revenue from ads plus international if that works. Instashopping" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1961076701364211801) 2025-08-28T14:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Baba CEO sounding very confident in this call on quick commerce and food delivery scale and dominance. Guiding to big GMV growth and scale improving margins next quarter. He even said they are now #1 in food delivery which I would question. Maybe in drinks. Anyway the dude sounds dominant. Interesting. The comment from the Meituan guy yesterday about "I am excited to fight this battle as the underdog" makes more sense now. Alibaba unchained. Uff" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1961403543891726699) 2025-08-29T12:20Z [----] followers, 12K engagements "what a solid surname. born for sellside. respect. 🤝" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/1961667989436334212) 2025-08-30T05:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements ""Not to brag but."" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1961694904314478755) 2025-08-30T07:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "For the BABA bulls looking at [---] (me one) let's all keep in mind this is a tourist heavy stonk many times used to express a broader view on China macro given liquidity regardless of company fundamentals. Just in the last [--] months we had two 30% drawdowns and one 20% drawdown. Money leaves as quick as it comes in. For comparison Tencent had just two 20% drawdowns and one of them actually due to a fat finger by an agency regulator who was promptly dismissed from his job and stock recovered. And in the US bluechips had just one 20-30% drawdown over the past [--] months rest of the time line up" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1962724190974550089) 2025-09-02T03:48Z [----] followers, 27.1K engagements "JD Health up 180% and now a usd25bn market cap company. Where did that came from. GLP1 + bubble tea value pack on your doorstep in less than [--] mins. JD market cap is usd45bn and their stake in JD Health is 67%" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1963601531695149105) 2025-09-04T13:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "One very big difference between China and US companies is the amount of cash they carry (similar to households btw). There are valid (and less valid) reasons why but it is such a drag on returns. Specially as cash in China yields a lot less than in the US. US big tech services Meta Google MSFT net cash as % of market cap is 1-2%. Net cash as % of revenue is 10-20%. The only one in China at similar level is Tencent at 11% net cash / revenue. BABA net cash (ex stakes) is at 35% of revenue Baidu 212%. Smaller US internet services like Booking and Uber run at -5% net cash to revenue. Meituan is" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1965577283412042073) 2025-09-10T00:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Reminder that Baidu is not in HK Southbound Stock Connect (BABA is). Just so you know where all this buying is coming from. I love the rally and cheering it continues to [---] but let's all acknowledge the name is being pumped on vaporware (chip apple Robin new haircut.). Treat the pump accordingly. On Baidu [--] businesses: 1-Baidu core ad business ranks #5 in China and losing share year after year to every other name in the top [--]. It has been a "GDP minus" business. Quarter after quarter management outlook for this business is "monetization" down the road. Robin said "Winter is Coming" few" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1966375352235856315) 2025-09-12T05:36Z [----] followers, 11.4K engagements "I would not tell people how in the money I am on BABA but there would be signs" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1966388501387293066) 2025-09-12T06:28Z [----] followers, 114.8K engagements "I have no idea who Sam Ro is but the Goldman chart is wrong. China is not 6% of global equity market cap it is 21% second largest by a mile. By market: -Hong Kong market capitalization today is usd6tr. -Shenzhen also around usd6tr. -Shanghai is 8.7tr. -Total China market cap usd20.7tr. Screenshots below from the [--] exchanges. (How they count the dual listed companies don't ask me I am assuming they count the shares traded in each exchange as these are not fungible you cannot move them. Even if there's double counting delta would be usd0.5-1tr max.) So: -China market cap is 1.6x larger than" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1967246444064383045) 2025-09-14T15:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Guys come on do we think the Chinese side cares about Tiktok's future Bytedance is 60% US owned. The Chinese founder owns 20%. Shutting down Tiktok would basically be incinerating money that rightly belongs to General Atlantic Susquehanna KKR Altimeter Softbank (the guy investing 500bn in US) etc. Concessions are not being made to save the founder 20% stake they are likely being made the other way to save the usd500bn of US LP gains represented by global PEs. This is really like the most absurd m&a situation. Global PE funds own a great asset the #1 player in digital advertising in China" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1967626426565419023) 2025-09-15T16:27Z [----] followers, 16.2K engagements "For China value bros Weibo must be screaming: 7x LTM PE AND finally setting a divi policy at 50%(ish) payout that yields 7% AND finally business appears stabilized after [--] years of declines (with some help from BABA). The tragedy: despite very ample net cash position management seems more keen in buying their debt at 20x PE (current blended debt cost is c.5%) than buying their shares at 7x PE. Corporate finance [---] not for us. How did Goldman convince them to raise so much offshore debt over the years for the cash to just sit there doing nothing With no tax benefit either as all the profit is" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1967829127609905591) 2025-09-16T05:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "HK retail uncles had enough. "get me out of this 10cent go nowhere thing and buy me anything that rhymes with chips" "Huahong has the lowest price [--] vs smic [--] lets go with that" "yes i know they are mostly washing machine chips so what are we here to discuss annual reports or to make money"" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/1968518420426899601) 2025-09-18T03:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "At what point do the tourists start fading BABA and we get a 30% drawdown like the last [--] times say back to [---] Or is this a "third time lucky" technical set up Look the sooner we all agree we need to lift this back to [---] the better. No more zigzagging. We all have bills to pay. Why is no one going to Drake's house like the OPEN scammer You guys don't want it bad enough. For the BABA bulls looking at [---] (me one) let's all keep in mind this is a tourist heavy stonk many times used to express a broader view on China macro given liquidity regardless of company fundamentals. Just in the last 12" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/1968894892803022912) 2025-09-19T04:28Z [----] followers, 15.6K engagements "Imagine the day when "and the PE ratio." stops being used in every Alibaba buy thesis and the stock graduates into a vibes-only largecap like Walmart or Msft. Will I see that again in my lifetime. The line goes where it goes and the reasons are built accordingly" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1970733543853826182) 2025-09-24T06:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Alibaba Eddie Wu delivering Bryan Johnson 5h boner level quotes at his speech yesterday (credit to Geopolitechs for the transcript) Qwen is open source because LLMs are the next OS and so he wants to be the next Android. Fine sure maybe. More interestingly Eddie is big on ASI. He already said that in calls before. He is not going for "good enough" and "focus on applications" which seems what China AI observers keep repeating. He is going for the full thing. Is this good/bad for the stock In this market the story sells. The question of investment vs profit will come later. Also can you run a" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1971256763543585175) 2025-09-25T16:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "China ATH status: Tencent - This morning quietly just 4% below Feb [----] ATH. - It matters largest company at usd800bn market cap. - From there 25% more and we get one Chinese into the usd1tr club. That will be a headline. - (if you are going to reply "ackchually TSMC" this is not the chat) - (if you are going to reply abt selling chickens before eggs hatch yes that's exactly what's going on here) Who got there already (Perfect evidence of how the China theme moved away from internet in case you are not reading since 2019): - Xiaomi broke ATHs first in Dec24 and up 63% since. - Then SMIC in" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1973590787196854627) 2025-10-02T03:28Z [----] followers, 45.8K engagements "BABA 24x LTM PE JD 9x LTM PE both +100% EBIT coming from China ecommerce uncle Richard must rename to JDdotcloud asap" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/1974122307858907603) 2025-10-03T14:40Z [----] followers, 12.4K engagements "BABA 20% drawdown soon. 4th in [--] months. Are you having fun 😬 For the BABA bulls looking at [---] (me one) let's all keep in mind this is a tourist heavy stonk many times used to express a broader view on China macro given liquidity regardless of company fundamentals. Just in the last [--] months we had two 30% drawdowns and one 20% For the BABA bulls looking at [---] (me one) let's all keep in mind this is a tourist heavy stonk many times used to express a broader view on China macro given liquidity regardless of company fundamentals. Just in the last [--] months we had two 30% drawdowns and one" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/1978026968378417308) 2025-10-14T09:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The trade war rhetoric makes you think 50% of the revenue of China bluechip companies comes from US exports. The actual number is. 3%. For comparison Taiwan is close to 50% Korea 20%. If you go down the MSCI China list the first company in the top [--] with meaningful exposure to US is probably Wuxi Biologics. Rest negligible. Exports are more of a SME thing which is of course very important for the economy. But shows the majority of the profit from trade today is retained in the US not in China. No large companies in China have been built directly from profits from exports. Obviously this is" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1979808487342481518) 2025-10-19T07:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Xiaomi makes usd25bn revenue outside of China. Of that US accounts for zero. Haier and Lenovo make 30% of their total revenue in the US. Smaller consumer electronics names like Anker and Shark Ninja well above 50%. China brands keep going to the US: Miniso Popmart Luckin Unitree. Lei wen Xiaomi US Let's pump it. Tell Bessent you will make a factory there to make stanley mugs look alike. We can add usd10-15bn revenue easy. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1980167044537749938 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1980167044537749938" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1980167044537749938) 2025-10-20T06:59Z [----] followers, 11.5K engagements "China entering year [--] of the real estate downcycle. Interestingly if this data from an MS report is right housing starts and prices are tracking the US real estate downturn. The fact that the line matches timing on the way down means nothing in terms of what comes ahead. But in terms of vibe people looking at real estate prices and feeling pain China today would be equivalent to US entering [----]. Good thing is bankruptcies have been done too (evergrande country garden couple of the trust companies with wealth management products tied to RE financing maybe Vanke and New World left to go" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1981077045984497826) 2025-10-22T19:15Z [----] followers, 23.3K engagements "Chinese don't like to pay for software (saas never really worked as a business model) so free models are the only way. And once you resign yourself to making it free you may as well go for max adoption by making it open source and hoping for it to become an OS a la android. For Alibaba and Baidu since they sell the compute it may work. Kimi and Z maybe the hope there is to be acquired at some point and valued based on number of users. Which is interesting because it means China is effectively pursuing a commodification strategy for AI (and makes the real US-China tech competition about power" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1988034654382027017) 2025-11-11T00:02Z [----] followers, 14K engagements "I think this is the first time I've seen KKR Joe Bae smile in my life. The [--] or [--] times I sat across the table from him his face was always "this could have been an email"" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/1988467944435995109) 2025-11-12T04:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Fast. Chinese AI prodigy Luo Fuli joins Xiaomi as industry competition for talent heats up The ex-DeepSeek researcher is known for being a key contributor to the development of the AI start-ups V2 model last year https://t.co/g3sxZwSwX9 https://t.co/gft2A55md8 Chinese AI prodigy Luo Fuli joins Xiaomi as industry competition for talent heats up The ex-DeepSeek researcher is known for being a key contributor to the development of the AI start-ups V2 model last year https://t.co/g3sxZwSwX9 https://t.co/gft2A55md8" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1988600242795868589) 2025-11-12T13:30Z [----] followers, 31.7K engagements "JD call finished prob what they didn't say counts as much as what they said. they did not give: -guidance on electronics so sounds to me it is going to get veeery rough in 4Q25. The growth in 4Q24 was 16% as subsidies fully kicked in. Could it get negative 4Q25 maybe. -guidance on new initiatives loss reduction for Q4. A lot of bs around improving unit economics etc but no soothing statement "we expect loses to reduce next quarter". They did remind people JD retail margin keeps going up (sure if you move all expenses to new initiatives) and LT goal for consolidated margin is high single digit" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/1988962801788833974) 2025-11-13T13:30Z [----] followers, 11.6K engagements "Putting strong national feelings aside (which are very valid and important and to be respected) purely theoretical: -I think that for USD 700bn theyll take Greenland and it will come giftwrapped with a bow. -The Danes are putting on the show but come on if you hand them that kind of cash which is 2x their GDP in exchange for a place they barely go to a place that costs them money every year and gives them headaches with proindependence movements and all that just imagine what a deal. Sold. -Its like if someone showed up offering Portugal 2x their GDP for Madeira. Sold. Sovereign debt paid off" [X Link](https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2014174766253715779) 2026-01-22T03:14Z [----] followers, 29.2K engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@pandawatch88 goldenlabubuwatch
goldenlabubuwatch posts on X about china, baba, in the, money the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Engagements: [-----] #
- [--] Week [-------] +93%
- [--] Month [-------] +198%
- [--] Months [---------] +154%
- [--] Year [---------] +151%
Mentions: [--] #
- [--] Month [---] -17%
- [--] Months [---] -4.80%
- [--] Year [-----] +16%
Followers: [-----] #
- [--] Week [-----] +2.90%
- [--] Month [-----] +7.60%
- [--] Months [-----] +54%
- [--] Year [-----] +142%
CreatorRank: [-------] #
Social Influence
Social category influence finance 35.29% technology brands 32.35% countries 31.18% stocks 13.53% automotive brands 3.53% social networks 2.94% travel destinations 2.94% currencies 1.76% gaming 1.18% fashion brands 1.18%
Social topic influence china #3160, baba #2686, in the 11.76%, money 10.59%, business 9.41%, if you 8.24%, growth 8.24%, to the 7.65%, ai 7.65%, tencent #171
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @akl_019 @aceboy8844 @capitalatrisk23 @drewcohenmoney @1lemonaday @achillesdes @phil_hk @maiuspartners @globalstockpick @jojo_capital @jdmsparky @akl019 @morechocoftw123 @amkotako @grok @trackdalf @dabao_ @the_pro_invest @ryanhingshing @thezackzhu
Top assets mentioned Yum China Holdings, Inc. Common Stock (YUMC) Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) Shopify Inc (SHOP) IBM (IBM) Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"My man Lei wearing aquamarine blue to make sure we can see him in the photo 🐬"
X Link 2026-02-11T15:27Z [----] followers, 14.9K engagements
"imagine 3am about to send the IC memo out VP to anayst last-last-last change "just ask claude to expand the IRR scenario table a bit so that the 18% shows up in the middle and we're done you can send out good job" . 2788% appears in the middle feeds straight to the powerpoint deck automatically updating all charts and text Claude automatically decides to change entry price range and run [--] divi recaps pre exit automatically updates the valuation rationale for paying 300x EV/EBITDA the clock ticks 3:01am Anthropic held a webinar for Claude for Excel. They didnt do a real-time demo since as"
X Link 2026-02-13T02:27Z [----] followers, 16.2K engagements
"Mobvista up 200% in [--] days because apparently it is now the Applovin of China Vobile up 40% because it is The Trade Desk and Weimob follows suit up 20% today because it is now Shopify. Bored people finding 2nd derivatives are a powerful force in markets"
X Link 2024-11-14T05:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Sooo are we finally going to make money on Kingsoft Donald J. Trump Truth Social Post 04:50 PM EST 10/10/25 https://t.co/xvG9dgdd4N Donald J. Trump Truth Social Post 04:50 PM EST 10/10/25 https://t.co/xvG9dgdd4N"
X Link 2025-10-11T07:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The unbreakable spirit of the Chinese entrepreneur 😂 Probably XYF growing loan volumes 70% in 1H25 (vs QFIN 16% and FINV 9%) is part of the reason why the regulator showed up with a hammer to stop the circus"
X Link 2025-11-23T14:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The JGCs are going to do an heroic job if they price JD Industrials inside the advertised range which implies 37-45x LTM PE while the parent is trading at 9x. I like the business. Great CF asset light etc. The comp here may be Fastenal at 40x LTM PE. JD Industrials growing faster at 20% vs Fastenal at 5-10%. But if we are not getting a discount because of the name there is no fun. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1997168875167690889 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1997168875167690889"
X Link 2025-12-06T04:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Excellent. New shareholder return program. Now we know why people are selling things like copart and csu. As More Chinese Firms Swap Cash Dividends for Freebies Analysts Question Long-Term Viability https://t.co/9xS2SL3oTC As More Chinese Firms Swap Cash Dividends for Freebies Analysts Question Long-Term Viability https://t.co/9xS2SL3oTC"
X Link 2025-12-10T11:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Wuxi Apptec destroying the competition YTD (even more if you separate the lackluster China client business). Bouncing around hkd100 at 20x PE added some more. Let's pray for a mild Biosecure Act and this thing to rip earnings 30% in [----] PE to 30x and +50% divi/buyback payout. Am I asking too much Dr Ge. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2001323482437894508 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2001323482437894508"
X Link 2025-12-17T16:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@jdmsparky it's a tight race with Jiayin for the title of dodgiest listed Chinese online lender but I think YRD wins just because of their auditor"
X Link 2025-12-21T04:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I just went through the Fundsmith letter to see how he frames [--] years of underperformance. First things first huge credit to the guy for building a usd20bn business in Europe that charges 1% p.a. Second also credit for very solid decisions along the way like not selling Meta in [----] as they burned billions on metaverse. Surprising restraint for a guy that yells and sells every time a portfolio company spends 5% of cash on non-core m&a. (One must show investors strong investment principles then quietly be flexible around them.) With that out of the way Fundsmith blames underperformance on"
X Link 2026-01-11T04:33Z [----] followers, 74K engagements
"The Tongcheng guys must be like "now we go up big right" "no more PE discount right" (Then qwen agentic app with fliggy launches tomorrow) Man"
X Link 2026-01-14T09:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Reminder that Meituan SAMR investigation (prob the closest comp to TCOM) took almost [--] months. Meituan share price actually performed in line with HSI from start to finish (I had no recollection of that). True it came right after the BABA fine so market was more ready than today (we all thought these guys would have learned how to execute regulatory action in listed companies.) Price aside in terms of company impact Meituan went from usd3bn losses in [----] to usd1bn losses in [----] as they cooled down investment (and usd2bn profit in 2023). Different investment cycle to where Trip is today. I"
X Link 2026-01-15T12:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"man real life pinduoduo on fire +25% growth [----] at double the multiple tho 24x vs 11x PE +usd100bn GMV and presumably you can eat samosas and kebabs while shopping"
X Link 2026-01-15T15:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Ping An loaded up on equities in [----]. Close to limit now if every other insurer is similar one less tailwind for HK dividend plays"
X Link 2026-01-15T15:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Hang Seng Index top performer of [----] (up 3x) already up 9% this year. metals&mining bros are so back. Hokas out Cat boots in"
X Link 2026-01-19T05:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"JD / RERE JD selling 11% stake in LX (a company that recycles and leases hardware to enterprises) after a 250% share price run this month. Uncle Liu may be a luckier trader than retailer. The JD guy on the board resigned in December so this exit was sort of telegraphed. And yet the share price rallied hard apparently on the back of some new leasing industry vibes. (or maybe it rallied 250% because they don't have association with JD anymore😰) Bit concerning for me on RERE which I really like and we had a good run together so far (will the curse of long post strike again). JD owns 34% has 2"
X Link 2026-01-19T07:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Tangent topic to China investing this was an interesting read about migrant workers (these are guys driving Meituan and scrolling Kuaishou where they are pushed short term insurance by Yuanbao and loans from Qifu to buy a present for the girlfriend). Shiny cities and robots videos are all fun and drive progress but remember 900m people in China have not yet traveled by plane (data from the regulator as of January 2026). It is a big place. The researcher spent [--] years on this study and himself is a child of two migrant workers. How prevalent is what he describes how scientific the data to"
X Link 2026-01-20T03:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Xiaomi doing origami with the HK listing rules to enable share buybacks continuing during the blackout period. Another innovation by Lei Jun. 🫡"
X Link 2026-01-22T12:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Throwback to when Berkshire bought usd4bn of TSMC in 3Q22 only to sell it [--] months later. Maybe it was Todd buying perfectly timing the bottom then Warren selling it. "No Todd you dont understand its Taiwan too risky we only have usd200bn in cash cannot bet 4". Todd then pulling his hair for [--] years trying to fix Geico while watching how his usd4bn bet would have turned into usd20bn. Just a theory. Congrats to the longs. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015664178128916851 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015664178128916851"
X Link 2026-01-26T05:52Z [----] followers, 48.8K engagements
"Lol WSJ. Coupang what altimeter Gerstner cashing prepaid favors. EU to send a strongly worded letter to SAMR to demand cessation of interference with Dublin based PDD"
X Link 2026-01-28T06:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Chris Hohn can't stop winning. What's going on gas turbines aero engines gpus memory shortages shortages as far as the eye can see. Maybe they all feel 2026-2030 is the last chance to make money before YMTC CXMT ramp up memory and AECC the CJ1000 bringing the prices of both down like if they were solar panels. [----] people are going to use RAM sticks to fill potholes. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016525533425918369 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016525533425918369"
X Link 2026-01-28T14:55Z [----] followers, 41.5K engagements
"BABA getting the chips going sounds interesting to me. Given the ruthless competition in cloud and models in China the money may have to be made upstream in the metal or downstream in the flesh and not in the middle realm of ether (too much Trying to sound poetic. Sorry). In the US cloud makes money. It is a cartel the [--] hyperscalers milk large cap CTOs aspiring SMEs and LP money via VC funded startups. It really is a great business (though changing not in the revenue/price side but in cost to serve given investment etc). In China cloud prices are a fraction of the US. Different workloads etc"
X Link 2026-01-30T04:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Of course gold corrected 8% hours later. Old enough to remember these guys deciding to expand the Hang Seng index from [--] to [--] constituencies literally at market top selling names at 5x PE to make space for Xiaomi and Meituan trading at 80x PE. Then you wonder why the Hang Seng is still down. Worst active 'passive' index. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017115960445194395 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017115960445194395"
X Link 2026-01-30T06:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@the_zack_zhu True though Bytedance was born when everyone already had a smartphone in their hand"
X Link 2026-02-01T08:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@morechocoftw123 All the money going to the hard stuff atoms metal"
X Link 2026-02-04T02:06Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Hitting the bbq after landing in Seoul and I can hear more mandarin than in TST. 11pm the emart24 under siege by mainland women going after Korean snacks. They are so strong. Flight to Japan cancelled Hold my soju. The kpop counter guy is getting some stares he will not be spared. I smile he knows I know. Lunar new year going to be wild. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019067600819638279 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019067600819638279"
X Link 2026-02-04T15:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Lol Dingdong Maicai valuation bridge. "Control premium" followed by "illiquidity discount" 😂 Too lazy to do the numbers but how come is DDL just usd500m market cap when they are getting usd700m payment for this business plus they get to keep usd300m of the cash the business has today There doesnt seem to be debt remaining. Maybe because lots of outs in the agreement cheap break fee or meituan now not a reliable buyer or more likely that you will never see the cash as the founder will keep it in the company to bid for onlyfans stake. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019429176118505634"
X Link 2026-02-05T15:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"hang seng having a rough week too but Haidilao lining yum china mengniu all are up this week and up 30% last two months. Which degen is running away from AI to bet on china consumer coming back"
X Link 2026-02-05T16:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Good write up. Regarding the two separate points made about import substitution and IPO market open these are actually linked: capital markets self sufficiency (not relying on US capital to fund growth) is a big focus. On hardware the best a-share performing sector last year (and the year before) was electrical components/optics/pcbs benefiting from both domestic tech buildup but also exports (not everything used in US comes from taiwan the amount of China components in US DC build up is large). Not covered but important growth areas are service/IP exports. In the past a lot of this value"
X Link 2026-02-06T06:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Shop down 40% in [--] months. .and still trading at 60x fwd PE Valuations don't matter on the way up .neither will on the way down to 10x PE And I think SHOP is a pretty good business plus the founder seems the kind of guy that can wipe the organization in shape to ride AI wave. But hey in the meantime markets. If it gets to 15x PE let me know. It's funny the market is treating $SHOP as an AI saas loser when this couldn't be further from the truth. - Agentic commerce overwhelmingly favors smaller e-commerce players are more people can discover them through ChatGPT. - $META's mentioned multiple"
X Link 2026-02-06T06:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@amkotako Good analysis. Thing is a lot of that incremental ebit for Microsoft is coming from legacy product price up (like [---] subscriptions going up offering a copilot no-one likes nor use). Difficult to know how much of the new ebit comes from the new capex"
X Link 2026-02-07T04:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@aceboy8844 Demand there is for sure. Can people make money out of that is a different Q. This is like telecoms serving bytes via broadband in [----]. Demand for bytes Exponential. Did they make money No cause it became flat rate"
X Link 2026-02-07T15:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Sure lets use you analogy then too for retail. You are paying usd400 a year for a productivity tool. Whats a good proxy the current 60m retail payers of Microsoft [---] for home that pay usd100 a year Lets day we convert half of that somehow we convince 30m users to pony up usd400 a year for an AI agent tool (very few people pay that today for any subscription mind you). 30m users paying usd400 is usd12bn a year. Vs usd1tr of capex Have I made the math right What else https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020157385806082491 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020157385806082491"
X Link 2026-02-07T15:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@brian_armstrong Keep shipping management share sales in exchange for fiat"
X Link 2026-02-08T05:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Update. If you bought 50% down from ATH you are down another 35%. Revenue growth went negative btw. Tough times continue at the church of quality business. Creepy company going after grandmas money. Taking inheritance away from unloving sons. The church of Evolution gaming is having a rough year. Every news about deceleration is shrugged as "one-off". Infinite TAM potential pointing to "Asia" (of course) substitution "we so small compared to inperson". I'm biased as I find the company and product creepy ignore me. https://t.co/7HFdaZcmtz The church of Evolution gaming is having a rough year."
X Link 2026-02-08T12:23Z [----] followers, 10.8K engagements
"You can count on Joey at Yum China to consistently do two things in earnings calls: -Proudly deliver the news of yet another year of MSD revenue growth and DD EPS growth: [----] revenue up 4% earnings up 11% eps up 14% usd1.5bn returned to shareholders (100% of earnings) -Proudly deliver the news of yet another outrageous pizza abuse this year is the Super Supreme with a mountain of french fries shaped like a volcano and thick lava sauce inside I'll spare you the photo. Solid well run business fairly valued IMO at 23x PE. A benchmark to beat for any mature consumer biz in China (i say mature"
X Link 2026-02-08T13:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@BoringBiz_ China runs a usd20tr economy and nobody uses salesforce. Cannot assume that "because you've been there a long time and have a lot of functions no one uses" you are needed"
X Link 2026-02-08T15:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Their gaming biz is good I like it. Netease is trading at 11x ev ebitda so im using that for garena. Tencent is 15x. Monee i dont like. They can dress it any way they want but it is effectively giving money to people and small merchants in emerging markets that can't borrow elsewhere in the hope of getting it back with interest and historically that has been a single digit PE multiple. Maybe they have discovered some new magic data driven way of doing it without defaults. Many tried that before too. If that's the case and we will see over a credit cycle for sure higher multiple. Until then i"
X Link 2026-02-09T01:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"It ran up quite a bit now back to 1.6x P/S vs Yum and Luckin at 1.8x. So feels kind of fair The stock has a lot of fans given brand recognition and small size they see pizza hut china they see what happened with dominos US stock and it becomes easy to join the dots and imagine gigantic growth. People forget though (or dont know) how Dominos Japan had a tough time. I have no view on where can it go. Maybe they can get to 5k stores get 8% margin out of it and thats a 2-3x for the stock from here. Restaurants are ultra competitive in China so many options the few listed stocks struggle. They"
X Link 2026-02-09T02:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Live from Haeunde in Busan nice weather as I wait for my coffee a mum with a stroller is sitting quietly watching with intensity the hbm4 side by side sk vs samsung comparison in finance tv and i fear for the husband arriving home tonight when he gets blamed "why are you not working at SK Cause So-min husband is." Tough times to be a Korean husband. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020704398436114734 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020704398436114734"
X Link 2026-02-09T03:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@phil_hk What could be the story for buying here A punt on a change in regs in europe a sale of the asia biz something else"
X Link 2026-02-09T07:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"My man Lei dressed up like a korean actor selling ginseng pills for the knee joints Lei Jun chairman and CEO of Xiaomi will host a Chinese New Year livestream show at its car business's Xiaomi Customization Service Center at [--] p.m. tomorrow he said on Weibo today. Xiaomi Auto launched customization services last September covering vehicles' paint interior https://t.co/iit0WACqbw Lei Jun chairman and CEO of Xiaomi will host a Chinese New Year livestream show at its car business's Xiaomi Customization Service Center at [--] p.m. tomorrow he said on Weibo today. Xiaomi Auto launched customization"
X Link 2026-02-09T08:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@DrewCohenMoney Just read the netflix wb one great one 👏🏻 Took me more than [--] mins tho 😭 title was misleading"
X Link 2026-02-09T15:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@buccocapital @JaredSleeper Tbh zoom and DocuSign numbers look even more impossible"
X Link 2026-02-10T03:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I can already see Gerstner getting ready his "time to get fit" open letter to software/analytics businesses. It really is a win/win here: if stocks go up later it is because of BG advice and if they stay down it is because they didn't take the advice. Cnbc interview content for [--] years. I keep looking at the names. No one wants to miss the Meta bottom at 10x PE. Problem is: 1) very few of these businesses are as good as meta 2) the ones that are are not (yet) at 10x PE 3) it was in Zuck's hand to fix the issue by stopping burning money on a future no one believed or liked while for these"
X Link 2026-02-11T02:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@1lemonaday @robert_baiguan Brutal. 9x PE. Like if Shandong SOEs are going to fire them tomorrow and vibecode ERP"
X Link 2026-02-11T12:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@capitalatrisk23 @jeremie0117 Chemicals to the moon (I bought Wanhua and don't even know the PE i just like the chart)"
X Link 2026-02-11T15:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
""everyone wants to buy""
X Link 2026-02-12T03:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@aceboy8844 I would point to more sellers than buyers Narrative can be "slow on AI" "baba bytedance after their top of funnel position" "games weak see netease" or just global tech risk off and tencent being the largest china cap. Who knows"
X Link 2026-02-12T05:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Because Claude DCF uses terminal growth rate not multiple"
X Link 2026-02-12T16:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The real US vs China competition is between Claude vs SAMR who can erase more market cap. Hey both are the price for progress power to the people (the people without shares that is)"
X Link 2026-02-13T04:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"btw if AI ROIC does not pan out you can always pivot a small amount of your capex say usd30-40bn to get 51% BTC hash rate and send usd1.5tr to your wallet. First come first served tho. I can totally see the Meta new hires legion of doom salivating. Libra finally. BABA datacenter capex grouped in "others" alongside IBM😭 the insult. MS gives no face to China AI artisans chugging out models non-stop trained on nintendo [--] clusters. Seedance [---] is awesome. BTW I have no idea what the US is doing with all this capex. Filling up https://t.co/hOXkgQkX5i BABA datacenter capex grouped in "others""
X Link 2026-02-13T05:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"I fed the latest XJP speech on finance published on Qiushi a week ago (but I think it is 1-2 years older) and couple of other ones to gemini [--] pro. Asked the model to account for trends things said things not said and gave a few companies to rank them by alignment. Gemini: "If XJP were to design a tech company that fits his current vision it would look a lot like Xiaomi." (if you are here to tell me 'ackchually what about founder influence' etc go take it up with gemini) PDD gets a C. The "Algorithmic Rent-Seeker."😂 generous btw fed the same to GLM and Qwen Qwen placed Tencent above Baba"
X Link 2026-02-13T07:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Kim Jones from LVMH/Dior to Bosideng (news from few weeks ago not new) Is he getting stock Bosideng reports today btw. 15x PE vs 18x for Anta. Similar 10-15% top line growth and ROIC. 5% divi yield + Kim Jones"
X Link 2025-11-27T03:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"To see how much extra TAM the usd1tr of capex can get lets use Booking as an example: -you are Google and Meta capturing 80% of the usd7bn annual marketing expenses of Booking while running an "asset light" business. So thats usd5.5bn a year. Nice. -now google and meta invest usd500bn of capex and they get: --that same budget usd5.5bn (unless you think they now get 100% of the budget because Booking stops advertising in Europe train stations or thai magazines or that AI will make people travel 50% more because somehow they have more money and so Booking marketing budget can go up. Bit of a"
X Link 2026-02-07T07:13Z [----] followers, 71.2K engagements
"Wuxi Apptec up 30% YTD and hit 52w high today alongside Wuxi Bio. Bit weird because: -the rest of global CDMOs or CROs are not doing that hot (wtf happened to Lonza and CRL btw). Some down big. Even lab equipment TMO Danaher can you now vibecode bioreactors -BTW actually on bioreactors sartorius down big ytd too which is upstream from wuxi bio -China biotech names Innovent or Beone even pharma Hengrui all consolidating. Same for services like Joinn Tigermed -only things pumping in China healthcare at the moment are for example Insilico yours for 50x P/S hey you gotta pay for AI thid is a very"
X Link 2026-02-12T04:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"China online lenders since pre-QFIN 3Q report (they were first) to today. Tense calm after post-reporting guide adjustments. Except for XYF. Can't remember now what they said in the call something along the lines of "and if this business doesn't work out we can always do something else like trading collectibles.""
X Link 2025-12-20T14:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Teleperformance not having fun in the age of AI. Back to [----] share price levels. Trading at 5x PE. Top line has flatlined margins still holding though coming in as the company invests in AI etc I'm not going to touch this but this is one where if (IF) they get their sht together become mega efficient with AI train models with their data and offer clients a one stop solution from simple interactions to empathetic human ones they double margins and revenue cause the need for customer service (or debt collection) is not going away. Good luck. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2012530104308748469"
X Link 2026-01-17T14:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"retail uncle army relentless march fwd"
X Link 2026-01-23T07:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Silver [---] Gold [----] on the same day would be something"
X Link 2026-01-23T16:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"11% of BABA is now held by onshore investors [--] months after being included in stock connect. It is wild to me that JD Trip Baidu etc have not yet changed to dual primary listing to be eligible for stock connect and load up gambling uncles in the register. WVR are not an issue anymore. Compliance disclosures Who knows. Maybe they think there will be little onshore bid. That 11% in BABA is prob around usd30bn of onshore buying (taking the avg price for the period). The southbound inflows were around usd200bn in the same period so they captured 15% of that not bad."
X Link 2026-01-28T06:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"China Pet Foods and Petpal both guiding to 30-40% growth in domestic market. Brave guys. We'll see. CPF added they expect expanding margins. General Mills and Nestle Pet used to have 20% ebit margins when I looked first at this company 3-4 years ago not sure if they still do. These guys are at 10% (the 20% guys outsource to the 10% guys). Anyway if all that comes true the current 30x LTM PE sounds fair-ish. Still a tiny biz usd2bn market cap usd70m NI. How many cats and dogs in China. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017625764880126463 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017625764880126463"
X Link 2026-01-31T15:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Some light topics discussed at [----] Norges Bank SWF annual review: "Are you making any plans in case your assets in the US are frozen or sanctioned" The fund is usd2.11tr in size. 53% (usd1.12tr) is in the US. It was 25% back in [----]. In fairness by world market cap US is 50% so Norges weighting is kind of there and well below MSCI ACWI or FTSE Global All Cap weightings which have US at 65% (as they apply discounts to EM market caps). Norges is overweight Europe and Japan which should be 14% and 4% by market cap but these guys have it at 21% and 6%. They are underweight China of course which"
X Link 2026-02-01T07:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"S&P [---] -0.8% from ATH. Shanghai index -2% from [--] year highs. Twitterbro Composite 25% down YTD"
X Link 2026-02-04T06:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"This chart is wild. Usd600bn capex [----] just [--] guys. To get 20% roic on that you need usd120bn new ebit say usd200-300bn new revenue. This comes on top of the usd100-200bn new revenue you should have added already for the capex you spent in [----] (and didn't). Wheres all this money going to come from Advertisers Do they have that money Consumer subscritions Middle east LP money being burned by startups Imagine Microsoft's next board meeting after hearing the google capex guide. Meanwhile Tim Cook like 🤗 China top [--] AI capex is 1/10th of this. Say baba and bytedance 20bn each the next 2"
X Link 2026-02-06T14:38Z [----] followers, 11.8K engagements
"Tag Dark days at the Tencent mines. I believe in you James. Pump us out of here"
X Link 2026-02-09T10:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"There are many ways to make money but the one I am always most in awe of is when people do the most obvious things: "yeah [----] [----] I made 5x riding all the covid money extravaganza in the ARKK unprofitable tech garbage and sold it as the Fed telegraphed rate hikes in [----] got short some bonds too of course and end of that year as gpt3 came out and hyperscalers started to say they ramp capex I bought all the taiwan and mainland hardware component guys to make another 5x" Would love to see a manager that made 10x in [--] years going through this in the letter "you know guys dont predict just"
X Link 2026-02-10T10:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@itsDanielWu @ohcapideas @PythiaR 10x for the CF that grows at 2-3% or 20x for the CF that grows at 20%"
X Link 2026-02-13T01:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"BABA datacenter capex grouped in "others" alongside IBM😭 the insult. MS gives no face to China AI artisans chugging out models non-stop trained on nintendo [--] clusters. Seedance [---] is awesome. BTW I have no idea what the US is doing with all this capex. Filling up datacenters with Ferrari GPUs then using them to go shopping doing 30mph at 8000rpms. Note 1: Bytedance similar capex as baba doesn't even show up Note 2: zero Europe/Japan companies not even in "others" unacceptable foh surh https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022130906585338251 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022130906585338251"
X Link 2026-02-13T02:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@capitalatrisk23 pls dont scare me"
X Link 2026-02-13T02:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@liqian_ren https://x.com/Edourdoo/status/2021948994348621935s=20 🤣🤣 https://t.co/PqjUYlGD1s https://x.com/Edourdoo/status/2021948994348621935s=20 🤣🤣 https://t.co/PqjUYlGD1s"
X Link 2026-02-13T02:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The ideal outcome of this thing is one where companies can save marketing fees (google and meta tax) and pass that on to consumers. Personal agents that can crawl shops and service providers working for you to find the best deal and not paid by them to sell you their deal would be a revolution in consumer space. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022171453647704508 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022171453647704508"
X Link 2026-02-13T04:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@DrewCohenMoney oh for sure an amadeus or similar will still be around to offer the inventory and cross the trade but it will be your agent picking it not the platform massaging you into it based on how much ad fees they are clipping from the seller"
X Link 2026-02-13T05:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"China was the only region growing double digits for Estee Lauder in Sep-Dec [----]. All credit to them (and the easy comp given how bad they did in 2024) because China retail sales 4Q25 growth was very weak like 2% growth. Like everyone else in cosmetics Tmall and Douyin rankings are the benchmarks they use to measure brand success. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020480015251673271 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020480015251673271"
X Link 2026-02-08T12:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@DrewCohenMoney Making money spent on buying machines disappear from the p&l is accounting's greatest invention"
X Link 2026-02-13T18:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"no Cambricon (gasp) And Kingsoft Cloud and I mean if you are going to put Yum China and SF and Gree (seriously) you may as well put QFIN and Mobvista. This feels as random as an Asia Top [--] bars list"
X Link 2025-10-01T14:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"JD 3Q25 out. All operating profit spent on common prosperity. Blessings. Hate what you want but top line pretty good: -Retail up 10% -3P/Ads up 24% -JD Health up 29% -JD Logistics up 35% (third party)"
X Link 2025-11-13T09:45Z [----] followers, 10.5K engagements
"The last two times MSFT touched 23x PE buy-the-dippers enjoyed a 60% run up in [--] months. Are you a chicken mcfly Coco coco"
X Link 2026-02-11T14:38Z [----] followers, 24.2K engagements
"Industrials and basic materials PMs emerging from their caves"
X Link 2026-02-12T00:38Z [----] followers, 78.2K engagements
"good summary on Meituan. Basically [----] by Q RMB bn: Consol NI: [--] [--] [---] [---] Local commerce ebit: [--] [--] [---] [---] They say Q1 will be rough too because you all love free bubble tea more than you love profits. @AKL_019 we were talking a month ago how come Meituan is still trading at hkd100 a share given the position they are in. Well now closer to hkd80. Very difficult to value this thing: --If you take [----] unaffected net income and apply a 25% haircut (pick a number) to reflect a new normal on unit economics and market share they are still today at 17x PF PE. --To buy this thing you have to"
X Link 2026-02-13T13:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"With CATL Hesai and Tencent that were already in the list I think It's a good list actually. Should be an ETF. PENTAGON ADDS ALIBABA TO LIST OF CHINESE FIRMS AIDING MILITARY PENTAGON ADDS BYD TO LIST OF CHINESE FIRMS AIDING MILITARY PENTAGON ADDS BAIDU TO LIST OF CHINESE FIRMS AIDING MILITARY PENTAGON NAMES COSCO AMONG COMPANIES AIDING CHINESE MILITARY PENTAGON LISTS HUAWEI AMONG PENTAGON ADDS ALIBABA TO LIST OF CHINESE FIRMS AIDING MILITARY PENTAGON ADDS BYD TO LIST OF CHINESE FIRMS AIDING MILITARY PENTAGON ADDS BAIDU TO LIST OF CHINESE FIRMS AIDING MILITARY PENTAGON NAMES COSCO AMONG"
X Link 2026-02-13T14:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"I did a podcast with my pal Graham from Longriver @longriver_hk on China equities: -narratives dramas risks profits -why I added aggressively in [----] -what would make me cut exposure fast Full transcript here (lightly edited numbers included): The podcast is built around a presentation I put together to give global allocators some ammo when debating China risk/reward with their boards (though the constraint is often career risk given passionate opinions on the topic). China is the 2nd largest and most liquid equity market in the world (USD22tr). Yet 3% in global indices. People in charge of"
X Link 2026-02-14T05:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"China sportswear not sure what's going on with Lining What a two months ride now at 18x LTM PE 6% FCF same as Anta. A year ago was 12x PE. Lining's 4Q25 operational announcement was atrocious. Are retail uncles pumping the name because of Winter Olympics But Ms. Gu wears Anta (attached). And retail uncles like Ms Gu. Cash is 40% of market cap. But that's not for you. The founder will burn it on some real estate following tradition. Ebit margin 13% vs Anta 24%. That's where the good news could come the moment they accelerate. In other sports news: [---] degrees announced 10% growth in 4Q25 which"
X Link 2026-02-15T14:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Whichever bank is executing the $BABA stock buybacks should be commended for the skill of loading up usd5bn worth of stock in 1Q24 while not letting the price run up a tick 👏🏻"
X Link 2024-04-02T15:58Z [----] followers, 10.8K engagements
"Mauboussin and Damodaran are truly exhausting. Reminds me everytime of Munger criticism The craving for that physics-style precision". Dude 20x PE is just the present value of earnings growing at 5% (GDP+) discounted at 10% (your return requirement). Or 3% and 8%. Whatever"
X Link 2024-04-25T04:40Z [----] followers, 77.5K engagements
"@WallStCynic Sure here: "In the same way US tech giants do.""
X Link 2024-05-23T14:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
""China is soo cheapp". No. China PE is low not cheap and it is due to the horrific revenue deceleration 17-21 cagr vs 21-23 cagr. And no buyback or dividend is coming to save you. If you want +20x PE back on your fav stonk management needs to show they can accelerate growth"
X Link 2024-06-29T11:56Z [----] followers, 11.4K engagements
"How come no Nick Sleep fanboy speaks about him selling half of Amazon his only stock to buy Asos in [----]. The Art of Cleaning a Motorcycle whatever and [--] years of stoic guru investor letters then this. Oh man. Huge respect for doing 10x big brain or big luck both ok"
X Link 2024-07-09T12:51Z [----] followers, 50.8K engagements
"For all of you treasure hunting usd300m 5x PE microcaps remember Visa and Mastercard are a 15-20x bagger from usd50bn market cap at 20x PE in [----] (pre GFC even more) How: 12% top line cagr margin from [--] to 60% PE to 30x FCF buyback 25% nosh Voila Todd Combs saw it. I didn't"
X Link 2024-07-17T15:31Z [----] followers, 35.4K engagements
"@SanderTordoir @TheEconomist 30% of Chinese industrial companies are loss-making you say Those are rookie numbers. 40% of the Russell [----] is loss-making. Context is everything"
X Link 2024-08-10T13:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@DavidInglesTV Mmm yes and no. No China just bit lower than US Meta 25x PE vs Tencent at 20x Nike 22x vs Anta 17x No China actually higher than US LRCX 26x vs Naura 37x Monster 30x vs Eastroc 35x And yes of course Tesla 60x vs BYD 20x Dash ♾ vs Meituan 30x JPM 12x vs ICBC 4x "
X Link 2024-09-05T04:09Z [----] followers, 10.7K engagements
"Kind reminder that WMT sold usd3.6bn of JD at 11% discount or [--] a share around a month ago. Life"
X Link 2024-09-26T23:04Z [----] followers, 26.2K engagements
"From the article about Ford CEO driving a Xiaomi Su7. Between sanctions and tariffs I don't expect Xiaomi in the US anytime soon (Howard Lutnick willing)"
X Link 2024-11-21T01:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The level of anti China commentary in interviews/podcasts with US finance and VC bros is getting extreme. Anything goes. Copy pollute spy force labour subsidize mercantilism no reciprocity unfair food too spicy. Peak echo chamber ESG Greta vibes. Pendulum ever swing back"
X Link 2024-12-17T08:36Z [----] followers, 17.8K engagements
"These were the [--] largest European companies by market cap at the beginning of [----] Europe does mag7 differently"
X Link 2024-12-23T11:18Z [----] followers, 98.3K engagements
"Brutal but let me cope: the usd250 hotel room in NYC back in [----] is now usd500. The usd150 hotel room in Shanghai in [----] is now usd130. If SPX is your currency/wealth in [----] you have to sell the same number of shares as in [----] to pay for the room (or sandwich or skipass)"
X Link 2025-01-02T02:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@RampCapitalLLC You can use it without plugging the usb. You only need the usb if you want to move the pointer on the screen"
X Link 2025-01-20T01:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The Seawolf Capital guys made 66% return in [----]. Very wowe. I think it is a family office now I remember they made like +150% in [----] shorting tech and GPs and long energy. Fun place. For [----] zero fuks about AI long China Brazil and Gold. Total chad"
X Link 2025-02-11T12:10Z [----] followers, 138.6K engagements
"@DynamicMoats https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/2025012983/the-easy-money-will-be-driven-by-trump-and-the-dollar-not-ai-say-big-short-investors https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/2025012983/the-easy-money-will-be-driven-by-trump-and-the-dollar-not-ai-say-big-short-investors"
X Link 2025-02-11T12:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Is this how US investors feel every day"
X Link 2025-02-14T08:53Z [----] followers, 16.9K engagements
"Coatue sold 90% of all their big China names in Q4 and bought [--] China loan sharks: QFIN and LX. Interesting I thought as I own qfin. Then I check the chart of LX. 😱 what happened 4x I am such a nerddd I comp all the loan sharks but missed Lexin in Q3 I shd fire myself"
X Link 2025-02-15T11:42Z [----] followers, 13.8K engagements
"This is such an important thread if you are looking at Chinese companies from US/Europe. Do not project what you have at home or you may end up buying Baidu. You are used to browsing the web for sites that give you answers or enable action. China forget it. 11/ OBSERVATION #3 - What does the internet look like without the web Apparently China I don't think I saw a single person open a browser at any point on my trip. For my extended family the "internet" is WeChat + maybe 5-10 smartphone apps (nobody uses PCs outside of work) 11/ OBSERVATION #3 - What does the internet look like without the"
X Link 2025-02-16T02:25Z [----] followers, 14K engagements
"Three takeaways from Xi speech at the official meeting coverage: -founders to "get rich first" (ah we miss those days) -SOEs and local governments to pay their pending bills to private companies (with what not sure) -a comment about where is the love"
X Link 2025-02-17T12:28Z [----] followers, 43.4K engagements
"These BABA results a year ago would be stock down 5-10% Love the fintwit high fives it's a top position for me but TTG 2% ebit growth is poor. CMR 9% growth means nothing in a platform company. I charge u fee revenue up i give u freebies ebit down. Will listen to the call"
X Link 2025-02-20T17:23Z [----] followers, 14.4K engagements
"China vs US valuation snapshot after rally. Ecommerce remains a drama. JD PDD at 11x 12x vs BABA now 18x. wow. She dragged all down bought some computers and then took off leaving them in the mud. Cunning. My boi Meituan at 23x common. Compounderbro Costco looks attractive"
X Link 2025-02-21T14:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Not a bad run for [--] weeks. China robots flying cars autonomous driving.A bit overbought perhaps or are we doing +800% this year "China is cheap if you look at MSCI China vs ." Yeah yeah ok multiples: Ubtech 32x Horizon 47x Ehang 28x (These are price / sales lol)"
X Link 2025-02-23T13:49Z [----] followers, 10.2K engagements
"@atelicinvest Analysts should do a [--] year internship at the finance department of a listco to see first hand the CFO putting artisan finishing touches on the quarterlies "yeah lets move this here and this to the next". They will learn to respect the craft and relax in the q&a. Its just numbers"
X Link 2025-02-23T16:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"BABA cloud this cloud that but remember the core of the business is retail. Ecommerce EBIT accounts for 110% of consolidated EBIT. If (IF) China macro comes back a 10% growth ecommerce EBIT is equivalent to tripling cloud EBIT. That's the biggest driver of fundamentals"
X Link 2025-02-24T12:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The strongest feature of the US market is the investor's deep seated belief that index drawdowns will not last too long"
X Link 2025-03-04T02:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Sorry why is everyone complaining today what's the problem (Yes i left baba out cause otherwise it doesnt look as nice)"
X Link 2025-03-04T17:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"SEA Ltd is really loved by the market and in many US portfolios I guess with parallels to MELI. But man look at that loan book growing at 60% acquiring 5m first time borrowers in emerging markets to support ecommerce GMV growth. Uff"
X Link 2025-03-05T07:07Z [----] followers, 22.2K engagements
"Global investor feedback on China tech (UBS March 5). "Among our meeting with 60+ investors only 1-2 asked about macro the rest mainly focused on AI" "After the American First Investment Policy Memo some investors are diversifying into less direct AI names like e-com and OTA.""
X Link 2025-03-09T13:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Imagine working a job where [--] days ago you were chillin holding BABA JD at 12x 18x PE good biz earnings growing sending cash to shareholders. They go down 12% on external event with no direct impact on earnings. At 20% down the risk boss taps you "sell them now just in case""
X Link 2025-04-07T12:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"If Euronext and Deutsche Boerse mean business they should be having zooms with all Chinese ADRs CFOs today plus their regulator. Instead I imagine them putting the finishing touches on the [----] ESG report available online or printed in biodegradable banana skins by request"
X Link 2025-04-11T06:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"PDD has more cash than JD has market cap. He truly is a Buffett disciple"
X Link 2025-04-16T15:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"I bought China Pet Foods in [----] on the back of covid zero pet ownership trends in China etc. I sold it in [----] cause I got bored of waiting. The stock was driven by US export seasonality (originally an OEM) ignoring China market (they were investing in their own brands market was skeptical). And then. To add insult I just found out someone at home bought their brand of treats for the dogs"
X Link 2025-04-27T07:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"I just had some fun looking at the Coatue presentation from May [----] (back in the middle of the post covid yolo tech crash drama). Coatue was already down 17% for the year. Laffont went 80% into cash. Good call they ended the year down 19% vs Tiger Global down 50% (and out). The fun part is in the "looking ahead" section of the presentation where they present the "good companies" worth to bet on for the long term. Let's look at the names they had in the deck and what happened [--] years later: (here is where you will realize nobody knows shit the game is about spreading risk in positive EV bets"
X Link 2025-05-07T08:13Z [----] followers, 46.7K engagements
""Do not retaliate and you will be rewarded." Vietnam and Taiwan now sitting at higher tariffs than China. Korea Japan about the same. Law of the jungle"
X Link 2025-05-12T09:16Z [----] followers, 64.7K engagements
"Tencent is like a Swiss watch. 4:30pm every quarter cuckoo comes out with 20% NI growth. Again and again"
X Link 2025-05-14T09:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"With friends like this"
X Link 2025-05-15T04:05Z [----] followers, 14.6K engagements
"BABA announced. Yellow cells now green. CFO booking this quarter the bare minimum to turn LTM back to positive growth. It is appreciated tho. Lets now read the rest of the stuff"
X Link 2025-05-15T10:19Z [----] followers, 12.6K engagements
"BABA results not bad. Of course stock down 5% premarket cause traditions are traditions. First things first retail is growing ok and accelerating double digit CMR 12%. Bit slower than JD 16% but not too bad given macro. Cloud also doing fine at 17% growth. Both businesses doing better top line than EBIT though. To offset all the other businesses are reducing losses and frankly at consolidated level my adj EBIT is up 76%. CF is good divi is good. Retail: -CMR up 12% total retail up 9% and ebit up 8%. All accelerating. -For comparison JD marketplace was up 16% total retail up 16% and ebit up"
X Link 2025-05-15T11:21Z [----] followers, 12K engagements
"I bought BYD a year ago at HKD220. The share wasn't particularly cheap at 22x PE for a car company but I thought: "Lets take a punt on the brand. International investors know the name already but only now are starting to see BYDs on the road. Friends in Europe sending me pics. Smells like at some point FOMO could hit" The stock had gone nowhere for [--] years 2021-2024 despite revenue up 4x and margins from [--] to 5%. Reason is of course all priced-in during [----] when the stock rerated from 1x P/S to 5x P/S. So I am [--] months in January [----] and we were still rangebound. Plus the stock had given"
X Link 2025-05-18T05:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Good news just received my allocation 👏 With friends like this. https://t.co/XzgeKltJ2R With friends like this. https://t.co/XzgeKltJ2R"
X Link 2025-05-19T04:55Z [----] followers, 11.3K engagements
"PDD doing PDD things"
X Link 2025-05-27T11:11Z [----] followers, 10.9K engagements
"China ecommerce wars drama. Saying "in China profits get competed away to zero" is typically taken as a sign of mental acuity and well traveled business expertise. As with many such cases nobody bothers to do the numbers. Stealing from yesterday's post: "How much has the China ecommerce profit pool shrunk after [--] years of ruthless competition and regulatory tightening" BABA JD PDD Douyin Kuaishou: [-----] retail EBIT usd28bn [-----] retail EBIT usd48bn The profit pool is up 1.7x during horrific macro no stimmy competition from new entrants and regulatory crackdown. Not bad definitely doesn't look"
X Link 2025-06-01T10:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Yes the Hang Seng index is still below precovid levels. And below levels seen [--] years ago. Do you know [--] years ago the Hang Seng index was 80% financials + utilities + property + infra + telcos Do you also know in [----] they decided to expand index components from [--] to [--] to add new economy / tech at peak valuations (baba wuxi bio meituan xiaomi.). Do you know what happens to a portfolio when you sell stuff at 5x to buy things at 100x and stonks go down afterwards Now that you know all this you can look at the Hang Seng and understand: 1) why comparison with other indexes may be irrelevant"
X Link 2025-06-05T22:28Z [----] followers, 15.9K engagements
"Important topic. Sending money back to shareholders has only become trendy for Chinese companies recently especially among two groups: 1-central SOEs pushed by the government to increase payouts and buyback shares. We have now Moutai sending 85% of net income to shareholders and starting buybacks (modest) for the first time ever. 2-big tech/internet: Tencent at 43% and JD and BABA at 70% not bad. Consumer names send back a lot as expected Yum China +100% payout Nongfu and CRB 60-70% but even names growing revenue at 40-50% like Eastroc or Giant send back 60% of NI to shareholders. On the"
X Link 2025-06-06T21:25Z [----] followers, 15.7K engagements
"And 40% of companies in Russell [----] are losing money. So what's the conclusion The % of Chinese industrial firms that are losing money is at its highest since [----] https://t.co/07UnRAKTLs https://t.co/5HUZ4UJwBZ The % of Chinese industrial firms that are losing money is at its highest since [----] https://t.co/07UnRAKTLs https://t.co/5HUZ4UJwBZ"
X Link 2025-06-14T00:03Z [----] followers, 10.4K engagements
"Richard Liu talks. How can you not love uncle Liu and JD Some highlights below and link to the speech. (btw keep in mind there's a lot self promotion here the audience is JD troops which he is making work overtime during [----] while launching [--] businesses at the same time and hiring 3k employees a day). IT WAS TIME First things first sounds like he was bored and stressed. He says historically they launched a new biz every [--] years (logistics healthcare industrials finance prop dev.). But [----] marked [--] years without starting anything new. He says these past [--] years of his entrepreneurial career"
X Link 2025-06-18T07:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"50% of SEA Ltd EBIT comes from making loans (1Q25) And they are moving from loans in support of ecommerce to just loans. "Drop BNPL it's cleaner" They consider 60% growth in loan book prudent😂 And also think that giving money to the guy with no better alternative than borrowing at 40% interest gives ample room to deliver healthy margins. tic toc tic toc SEA Ltd is really loved by the market and in many US portfolios I guess with parallels to MELI. But man look at that loan book growing at 60% acquiring 5m first time borrowers in emerging markets to support ecommerce GMV growth. Uff."
X Link 2025-06-28T09:16Z [----] followers, 11K engagements
"Yiwu is listed wait whaaat I had no idea. If you are interested in owning China largest bazaar. usd15bn market cap up 160% in [--] year despite trade war sells 98% of US Christmas decorations. And 99% of straws. I really need to look into this thing closely. Majority of revenue from renting the stalls where secondary rents (between merchants) are apparently 5-10x the official one. And then a growing share of net profit comes from online B2B and payments. Homework"
X Link 2025-06-29T15:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Meituan price almost back to September [----] pre China policy pump. Not even JD has gone back that much. The founder call to war in 1Q25 results was met with share price up +15% the following two weeks which was weird. Now people getting back to reality and the founder promise of battle losses (no guidance was given). Plus for sure the lack of buybacks at these levels. They did a buyback for ants at the end of May to offset SBC and that was it. The company saving cash is getting people worried They have usd20bn net vs usd100bn market cap. Valuation: 18x LTM PE (16x core ex new biz losses) 5%"
X Link 2025-07-01T08:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Ok I bought some more TCOM in US to add to the HK ones this morning. Thesis Catalyst and Metrics. Thesis: the valuation is fine at 20x PE 5% FCF no "hidden gem at 10x PE" here but I think there is more in this name: --the price has been lagging (-8% YTD vs index and Tencent +24%) because people don't like the impact on margins from the current investment in Asia/Europe. --but Trip is not a market dog though it has an audience the price is up 80% since December [----] same as Tencent vs market 50%. Fans just need to get itchy again (see catalysts) --I like the fundamental story anyway:"
X Link 2025-07-21T16:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"On Cluseau's post abt profit upside on Chinese companies which is an interesting topic to me: The short answer. --yes there is specific margin potential in some names (JD and Xiaomi for sure IMO) but what the government wants is EBIT up not necessarily MARGIN up. Bigger pie via better more expensive products and not more efficiency at platform level. Why The Long if you are bored: --the problem is not low prices leading to low margins at the large internet/chinese listed cos. The margins are actually world class. (ebit margins: 45% TTG 25% Meituan well above Dash/uber Trip 30% same as"
X Link 2025-07-22T06:02Z [----] followers, 10.6K engagements
"Rereading some articles about in Apple [----] when the stock was down almost 50% and trading at 9x PE. VC guys and fund managers at the time all saying "smartphone market obviously saturated" and pointing as Samsung competition. "Very bearish on Apple unless they launch cheaper models to compete". Work on other devices like TVs or do M&A were suggested solution too. Stock did 10x in [--] years. Nobody knows anything. Even the ones supposed to be informed"
X Link 2025-07-24T12:43Z [----] followers, 10.8K engagements
"The Chinese government doing everything possible to get people into equities where btw capital gains as of today are tax exempted. Tell me about capitalism"
X Link 2025-08-05T13:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"This article about China US IPOs misses the key point (obviously not mentioned by people quoted in the article since it goes against their own business): US is a disclosure regime HK is a compliance regime. Meaning you can IPO utter garbage in the US as long as you disclose it in risk factors: "we dont have license to operate" "we steal from customers who dont know how much we charge them" "the audit firm is owned by our founder's cousin". In HK [--] or [--] banks must take the role of Sponsor in the IPO meaning the deal team and counsel need to spend [--] months DDing the company is a viable business"
X Link 2025-08-06T02:42Z [----] followers, 13.7K engagements
"HKD rates continue to be very crazy [--] month Hibor 0.88% vs [--] month rates in the US at 4.35%. (for the foreign students new to the classroom the HKD is pegged to the USD which gives poor Kyle Bass constant ulcers. For Gen Zs: HKD is the original USD stablecoin you have invented nothing here.) Interactive Brokers are very cheeky making bank out of it charging 100bps more spread for HKD vs USD as people move margin to HKD to lower financing costs. Capitalism is outrageous. (Btw for UBS in HK the spread is lower for HKD than USD opposite to IBKR)"
X Link 2025-08-06T05:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Tencent reporting soon are you excited then JD then BABA. Tencent will show growth above market on advertising say c.20% and everyone will clap ooohh AI is working share price up (or is it impressions going up). BABA will show DD growth in cloud maybe starting with a [--] and everything will clap oohh price up (despite the fact ecommerce EBIT is like 120% of consolidated EBIT and cloud a drop in the bucket for now). JD will show up with faster growth in ecommerce than BABA and margin up ex food delivery and everyone will be like "buarrgghh". Poor guys showing accelerated growth for [--] quarters"
X Link 2025-08-13T08:13Z [----] followers, 25.1K engagements
"Rough year so far for the quality compounder connoisseurs. If Costco turns south Armageddon"
X Link 2025-08-18T16:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Tencent at +4Y highs and 13% below ATH 🥲 Baba.well. let's give them something a gold star for the fridge Tencent is the better company (today) for sure but the share performance difference with BABA is a bit unfair though: Tencent: --NI in [----] was usd13bn --Today is usd29bn LTM more than double --Share count down 5% --Share price still 13% below [----] ATH --Ok valuation vibes whatever. But BABA: --NI in [----] was usd12bn --Today is usd20bn LTM. Sure not double still +1.7x not bad --Share count down 18% --And 60% below ATH feels abusive"
X Link 2025-08-25T08:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"All this Meituan drama for just rmb1bn negative ebit you are all a bunch of babies. Look at 2021.those were the days. Enter strong shiba weak shiba meme. Listening to the call now. Xing "There is nothin more exciting than being the underdog in a big game". He is not looking at food delivery he is going for instashopping all-in. Love it when investment gurus quote the classic 'the superior investor shall favor founder led companies' . 'align your chips with owner operators'. such wisdom"
X Link 2025-08-28T11:24Z [----] followers, 10.8K engagements
"Ok got through the Meituan call and numbers etc and my hangover too (almost). My views if anyone cares: -First Meituan is not going away. Food delivery was a usd5bn profit pool last year at [--] rmb profit per order (and I would not call last year the pinnacle of China consumer macro). There won't be less food delivery in [----] than today there will be more. And if deflation stops the average order will grow from rmb30 to maybe rmb35-40-45 and that extra % of commissions flows straight down to the bottom line moving margin up. Plus revenue from ads plus international if that works. Instashopping"
X Link 2025-08-28T14:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Baba CEO sounding very confident in this call on quick commerce and food delivery scale and dominance. Guiding to big GMV growth and scale improving margins next quarter. He even said they are now #1 in food delivery which I would question. Maybe in drinks. Anyway the dude sounds dominant. Interesting. The comment from the Meituan guy yesterday about "I am excited to fight this battle as the underdog" makes more sense now. Alibaba unchained. Uff"
X Link 2025-08-29T12:20Z [----] followers, 12K engagements
"what a solid surname. born for sellside. respect. 🤝"
X Link 2025-08-30T05:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
""Not to brag but.""
X Link 2025-08-30T07:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"For the BABA bulls looking at [---] (me one) let's all keep in mind this is a tourist heavy stonk many times used to express a broader view on China macro given liquidity regardless of company fundamentals. Just in the last [--] months we had two 30% drawdowns and one 20% drawdown. Money leaves as quick as it comes in. For comparison Tencent had just two 20% drawdowns and one of them actually due to a fat finger by an agency regulator who was promptly dismissed from his job and stock recovered. And in the US bluechips had just one 20-30% drawdown over the past [--] months rest of the time line up"
X Link 2025-09-02T03:48Z [----] followers, 27.1K engagements
"JD Health up 180% and now a usd25bn market cap company. Where did that came from. GLP1 + bubble tea value pack on your doorstep in less than [--] mins. JD market cap is usd45bn and their stake in JD Health is 67%"
X Link 2025-09-04T13:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"One very big difference between China and US companies is the amount of cash they carry (similar to households btw). There are valid (and less valid) reasons why but it is such a drag on returns. Specially as cash in China yields a lot less than in the US. US big tech services Meta Google MSFT net cash as % of market cap is 1-2%. Net cash as % of revenue is 10-20%. The only one in China at similar level is Tencent at 11% net cash / revenue. BABA net cash (ex stakes) is at 35% of revenue Baidu 212%. Smaller US internet services like Booking and Uber run at -5% net cash to revenue. Meituan is"
X Link 2025-09-10T00:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Reminder that Baidu is not in HK Southbound Stock Connect (BABA is). Just so you know where all this buying is coming from. I love the rally and cheering it continues to [---] but let's all acknowledge the name is being pumped on vaporware (chip apple Robin new haircut.). Treat the pump accordingly. On Baidu [--] businesses: 1-Baidu core ad business ranks #5 in China and losing share year after year to every other name in the top [--]. It has been a "GDP minus" business. Quarter after quarter management outlook for this business is "monetization" down the road. Robin said "Winter is Coming" few"
X Link 2025-09-12T05:36Z [----] followers, 11.4K engagements
"I would not tell people how in the money I am on BABA but there would be signs"
X Link 2025-09-12T06:28Z [----] followers, 114.8K engagements
"I have no idea who Sam Ro is but the Goldman chart is wrong. China is not 6% of global equity market cap it is 21% second largest by a mile. By market: -Hong Kong market capitalization today is usd6tr. -Shenzhen also around usd6tr. -Shanghai is 8.7tr. -Total China market cap usd20.7tr. Screenshots below from the [--] exchanges. (How they count the dual listed companies don't ask me I am assuming they count the shares traded in each exchange as these are not fungible you cannot move them. Even if there's double counting delta would be usd0.5-1tr max.) So: -China market cap is 1.6x larger than"
X Link 2025-09-14T15:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Guys come on do we think the Chinese side cares about Tiktok's future Bytedance is 60% US owned. The Chinese founder owns 20%. Shutting down Tiktok would basically be incinerating money that rightly belongs to General Atlantic Susquehanna KKR Altimeter Softbank (the guy investing 500bn in US) etc. Concessions are not being made to save the founder 20% stake they are likely being made the other way to save the usd500bn of US LP gains represented by global PEs. This is really like the most absurd m&a situation. Global PE funds own a great asset the #1 player in digital advertising in China"
X Link 2025-09-15T16:27Z [----] followers, 16.2K engagements
"For China value bros Weibo must be screaming: 7x LTM PE AND finally setting a divi policy at 50%(ish) payout that yields 7% AND finally business appears stabilized after [--] years of declines (with some help from BABA). The tragedy: despite very ample net cash position management seems more keen in buying their debt at 20x PE (current blended debt cost is c.5%) than buying their shares at 7x PE. Corporate finance [---] not for us. How did Goldman convince them to raise so much offshore debt over the years for the cash to just sit there doing nothing With no tax benefit either as all the profit is"
X Link 2025-09-16T05:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"HK retail uncles had enough. "get me out of this 10cent go nowhere thing and buy me anything that rhymes with chips" "Huahong has the lowest price [--] vs smic [--] lets go with that" "yes i know they are mostly washing machine chips so what are we here to discuss annual reports or to make money""
X Link 2025-09-18T03:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"At what point do the tourists start fading BABA and we get a 30% drawdown like the last [--] times say back to [---] Or is this a "third time lucky" technical set up Look the sooner we all agree we need to lift this back to [---] the better. No more zigzagging. We all have bills to pay. Why is no one going to Drake's house like the OPEN scammer You guys don't want it bad enough. For the BABA bulls looking at [---] (me one) let's all keep in mind this is a tourist heavy stonk many times used to express a broader view on China macro given liquidity regardless of company fundamentals. Just in the last 12"
X Link 2025-09-19T04:28Z [----] followers, 15.6K engagements
"Imagine the day when "and the PE ratio." stops being used in every Alibaba buy thesis and the stock graduates into a vibes-only largecap like Walmart or Msft. Will I see that again in my lifetime. The line goes where it goes and the reasons are built accordingly"
X Link 2025-09-24T06:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Alibaba Eddie Wu delivering Bryan Johnson 5h boner level quotes at his speech yesterday (credit to Geopolitechs for the transcript) Qwen is open source because LLMs are the next OS and so he wants to be the next Android. Fine sure maybe. More interestingly Eddie is big on ASI. He already said that in calls before. He is not going for "good enough" and "focus on applications" which seems what China AI observers keep repeating. He is going for the full thing. Is this good/bad for the stock In this market the story sells. The question of investment vs profit will come later. Also can you run a"
X Link 2025-09-25T16:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"China ATH status: Tencent - This morning quietly just 4% below Feb [----] ATH. - It matters largest company at usd800bn market cap. - From there 25% more and we get one Chinese into the usd1tr club. That will be a headline. - (if you are going to reply "ackchually TSMC" this is not the chat) - (if you are going to reply abt selling chickens before eggs hatch yes that's exactly what's going on here) Who got there already (Perfect evidence of how the China theme moved away from internet in case you are not reading since 2019): - Xiaomi broke ATHs first in Dec24 and up 63% since. - Then SMIC in"
X Link 2025-10-02T03:28Z [----] followers, 45.8K engagements
"BABA 24x LTM PE JD 9x LTM PE both +100% EBIT coming from China ecommerce uncle Richard must rename to JDdotcloud asap"
X Link 2025-10-03T14:40Z [----] followers, 12.4K engagements
"BABA 20% drawdown soon. 4th in [--] months. Are you having fun 😬 For the BABA bulls looking at [---] (me one) let's all keep in mind this is a tourist heavy stonk many times used to express a broader view on China macro given liquidity regardless of company fundamentals. Just in the last [--] months we had two 30% drawdowns and one 20% For the BABA bulls looking at [---] (me one) let's all keep in mind this is a tourist heavy stonk many times used to express a broader view on China macro given liquidity regardless of company fundamentals. Just in the last [--] months we had two 30% drawdowns and one"
X Link 2025-10-14T09:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The trade war rhetoric makes you think 50% of the revenue of China bluechip companies comes from US exports. The actual number is. 3%. For comparison Taiwan is close to 50% Korea 20%. If you go down the MSCI China list the first company in the top [--] with meaningful exposure to US is probably Wuxi Biologics. Rest negligible. Exports are more of a SME thing which is of course very important for the economy. But shows the majority of the profit from trade today is retained in the US not in China. No large companies in China have been built directly from profits from exports. Obviously this is"
X Link 2025-10-19T07:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Xiaomi makes usd25bn revenue outside of China. Of that US accounts for zero. Haier and Lenovo make 30% of their total revenue in the US. Smaller consumer electronics names like Anker and Shark Ninja well above 50%. China brands keep going to the US: Miniso Popmart Luckin Unitree. Lei wen Xiaomi US Let's pump it. Tell Bessent you will make a factory there to make stanley mugs look alike. We can add usd10-15bn revenue easy. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1980167044537749938 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1980167044537749938"
X Link 2025-10-20T06:59Z [----] followers, 11.5K engagements
"China entering year [--] of the real estate downcycle. Interestingly if this data from an MS report is right housing starts and prices are tracking the US real estate downturn. The fact that the line matches timing on the way down means nothing in terms of what comes ahead. But in terms of vibe people looking at real estate prices and feeling pain China today would be equivalent to US entering [----]. Good thing is bankruptcies have been done too (evergrande country garden couple of the trust companies with wealth management products tied to RE financing maybe Vanke and New World left to go"
X Link 2025-10-22T19:15Z [----] followers, 23.3K engagements
"Chinese don't like to pay for software (saas never really worked as a business model) so free models are the only way. And once you resign yourself to making it free you may as well go for max adoption by making it open source and hoping for it to become an OS a la android. For Alibaba and Baidu since they sell the compute it may work. Kimi and Z maybe the hope there is to be acquired at some point and valued based on number of users. Which is interesting because it means China is effectively pursuing a commodification strategy for AI (and makes the real US-China tech competition about power"
X Link 2025-11-11T00:02Z [----] followers, 14K engagements
"I think this is the first time I've seen KKR Joe Bae smile in my life. The [--] or [--] times I sat across the table from him his face was always "this could have been an email""
X Link 2025-11-12T04:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Fast. Chinese AI prodigy Luo Fuli joins Xiaomi as industry competition for talent heats up The ex-DeepSeek researcher is known for being a key contributor to the development of the AI start-ups V2 model last year https://t.co/g3sxZwSwX9 https://t.co/gft2A55md8 Chinese AI prodigy Luo Fuli joins Xiaomi as industry competition for talent heats up The ex-DeepSeek researcher is known for being a key contributor to the development of the AI start-ups V2 model last year https://t.co/g3sxZwSwX9 https://t.co/gft2A55md8"
X Link 2025-11-12T13:30Z [----] followers, 31.7K engagements
"JD call finished prob what they didn't say counts as much as what they said. they did not give: -guidance on electronics so sounds to me it is going to get veeery rough in 4Q25. The growth in 4Q24 was 16% as subsidies fully kicked in. Could it get negative 4Q25 maybe. -guidance on new initiatives loss reduction for Q4. A lot of bs around improving unit economics etc but no soothing statement "we expect loses to reduce next quarter". They did remind people JD retail margin keeps going up (sure if you move all expenses to new initiatives) and LT goal for consolidated margin is high single digit"
X Link 2025-11-13T13:30Z [----] followers, 11.6K engagements
"Putting strong national feelings aside (which are very valid and important and to be respected) purely theoretical: -I think that for USD 700bn theyll take Greenland and it will come giftwrapped with a bow. -The Danes are putting on the show but come on if you hand them that kind of cash which is 2x their GDP in exchange for a place they barely go to a place that costs them money every year and gives them headaches with proindependence movements and all that just imagine what a deal. Sold. -Its like if someone showed up offering Portugal 2x their GDP for Madeira. Sold. Sovereign debt paid off"
X Link 2026-01-22T03:14Z [----] followers, 29.2K engagements
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