[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.] [@Giovann35084111](/creator/twitter/Giovann35084111) "Many people say "but the power law has the dollar as a denominator" but you can flip the relationship in a trivial way and have Bitcoin as the denominator. In that case the power law goes down instead of up (everything goes to X relative to Bitcoin). Furthermore you can use oil real estate gold anything as your nominator: all power laws. Please let's stop this absurd argument of "you are using the dollar" as a denominator. It is a meaningless criticism" [X Link](https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/1980613221380767846) [@Giovann35084111](/creator/x/Giovann35084111) 2025-10-21T12:32Z 52.7K followers, 18.1K engagements "As long as Bitcoin is a network it will follow the power law" [X Link](https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/1981286166235066398) [@Giovann35084111](/creator/x/Giovann35084111) 2025-10-23T09:06Z 52.7K followers, 8502 engagements "It is not. It is because Bitcoin is a network and gold is not. It is that simple. People will finally understand Bitcoin when the fixation on scarcity is over" [X Link](https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/1981373313168376128) [@Giovann35084111](/creator/x/Giovann35084111) 2025-10-23T14:53Z 52.7K followers, 27.7K engagements "It is not scarcity that matters. It is the perfect ledger. The finiteness of the supply solves the monetary policy consensus issue. Instead of consensus via committee or democratic vote it is established at Genesis once and for all. But this is not scarcity it is predictability" [X Link](https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/1981379209915183603) [@Giovann35084111](/creator/x/Giovann35084111) 2025-10-23T15:16Z 52.7K followers, 2267 engagements "The fact we will have the singularity in XX years is one of the reasons I don't do Bitcoin projections beyond that date" [X Link](https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/1977992520643604719) [@Giovann35084111](/creator/x/Giovann35084111) 2025-10-14T06:59Z 52.6K followers, 10.6K engagements "PlanC as always pretends to be what is not. Let me give you an example. He mentions "stretched exponentials". I explained the concept to him but actually they are a possible bug not an useful feature of these models. Everything looks like an exponential if you use a far away origin. The problem is that you can go so far by prompting Chat GPT but if you have no true foundation in the topic you claim to be an expert in there will be obvious misconceptions and misinformation. That is what really bothers me in the end about all this" [X Link](https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/1978854432411660481) [@Giovann35084111](/creator/x/Giovann35084111) 2025-10-16T16:03Z 52.6K followers, 10.4K engagements "This is a good question. Yes gold is bigger in market cap so relatively small movements in gold mean large market cap changes. But this actually shows why Bitcoin is a better long term investment because it has room to grow. Gold cannot grow a factor of XX just cannot in terms of what would be involved in capital invested ratio to other assets and all sorts of problems the infrastructure will suffer if it was valued even more" [X Link](https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/1979122648979214761) [@Giovann35084111](/creator/x/Giovann35084111) 2025-10-17T09:49Z 52.6K followers, 9519 engagements "For now. Soon these AIs will also live in the physical world. They could have their own laboratories and factories. This is the start. I don't understand people who don't understand that these are minds more capable than our own. And again this is just the beginning" [X Link](https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/1979198475599278425) [@Giovann35084111](/creator/x/Giovann35084111) 2025-10-17T14:51Z 52.6K followers, 6382 engagements "Funny Sina scolding PlanC about not recognizing him as the mind behind the quantile model when both of them had no clue of the power law at all until I showed it to them. This latest form of the quantile regression is actually something I proposed to both of them and they rejected it initially. I wrote a full article on why it was better than vanilla quantile. Now it is their model so absurd. The quantile model is the power law by the way. This is so funny and it is coming full circle. LOLLLLL" [X Link](https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/1979320820112724081) [@Giovann35084111](/creator/x/Giovann35084111) 2025-10-17T22:57Z 52.6K followers, 4637 engagements "The most egregious statement from PlanC showing how he really doesn't understand the power law at all is: "If the decay function breaks the power law may break as well". Absurd. 1) The decay function seems already broken. 2) The decay is about the residuals so what is left after the power law. We know that these residuals have a small weight in the overall behavior of Bitcoin. Just X %. They are a side show not the main show. 3) Exponential are not stable that is the main message we are repeating over and over. Scaling laws are stable. Not understanding all this means PlanC has no clue of" [X Link](https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/1979328940540891142) [@Giovann35084111](/creator/x/Giovann35084111) 2025-10-17T23:29Z 52.6K followers, 7174 engagements "All this is so amazing to watch. What Sina describes about PlanC I described about both of them. Sina lacks physics understanding and intuition for example. He has no clue about why power laws are important. Working together is great but one has to be transparent on who contributed what. People that say that don't care about the drama they never created something valuable" [X Link](https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/1979426358737371306) [@Giovann35084111](/creator/x/Giovann35084111) 2025-10-18T05:56Z 52.6K followers, 7345 engagements "Beautiful system thinking slide about foundational innovations" [X Link](https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/1979492743194780077) [@Giovann35084111](/creator/x/Giovann35084111) 2025-10-18T10:20Z 52.6K followers, 3924 engagements "I had a couple of women leaving me for that" [X Link](https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/1979502670986797278) [@Giovann35084111](/creator/x/Giovann35084111) 2025-10-18T10:59Z 52.6K followers, 11.2K engagements "Here is a video from X months ago. I discuss why Quantile V1 is problematic and I give a resolution. I explain how to build a better version of the Quantile model and I call it Unicorn Quantile (because it looks it has a horn). This is now what PlanC calls V2. The exact same model I proposed as an improvement claiming he is the author of it. Ridiculous. I have the receipts and am tired of PlanC plagiarizing mine and others' work" [X Link](https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/1979835952596996130) [@Giovann35084111](/creator/x/Giovann35084111) 2025-10-19T09:04Z 52.6K followers, 5309 engagements "I'm going to write an article on the history of the modeling of Bitcoin. I had some confrontation with @sminston_with at a point but I think it was created mostly by @TheRealPlanC interference in the relationship. Since then we have been respectful to each other and in general I like his work and he has been most of the time very professional and respectful. He has serious analytical power and also a foundational understanding of the topic involved in this research. He was one of the first people to make good quantile regression models it seems before PlanC and in particular he had the idea" [X Link](https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/1979848580727701606) [@Giovann35084111](/creator/x/Giovann35084111) 2025-10-19T09:54Z 52.6K followers, 8044 engagements "@TheRealPlanC Here is by the way the convo I had with PlanC where I explained to him how to construct V2. This Feb 2024 then in April 2024 I wrote article with step-by-step instructions" [X Link](https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/1980045745987403787) [@Giovann35084111](/creator/x/Giovann35084111) 2025-10-19T22:57Z 52.6K followers, 2646 engagements "Networks and power laws are not 1-to-1. Networks are complex systems so they can show many behaviors. But it seems that most networks in nature prefer to organize themselves in such a way as to show power law properties. This is the case for social networks cities organisms and so on. There are different mechanisms behind this organization and I'm also studying them to see how relevant they are in understanding Bitcoin. One mechanism is called "preferential attachment" where a few nodes are more important than others. This leads to scale-invariant behavior and it is actually a good feature" [X Link](https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/1980240001829879955) [@Giovann35084111](/creator/x/Giovann35084111) 2025-10-20T11:49Z 52.6K followers, 4832 engagements "Please watch the video in the comment. It is a wonderful 7-minute video about the relevance and importance of networks in our lives. Barabasi is a physicist and one of the founders of Network Science. Barabasi showed that many networks have power law properties. While you watch the video think about how Bitcoin is another instance of these networks and how amazing it is that Bitcoin is not an asset but one of these wonderful meaningful networks with enormous impact and relevance in our lives. Video link in the comments" [X Link](https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/1980243803660517432) [@Giovann35084111](/creator/x/Giovann35084111) 2025-10-20T12:04Z 52.6K followers, 5609 engagements "Link to the video:" [X Link](https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/1980243964428157396) [@Giovann35084111](/creator/x/Giovann35084111) 2025-10-20T12:05Z 52.6K followers, 5931 engagements "I can attest that every single thing Sina said about PlanC is the same almost word by word experience that I had with PlanC. I lamented that PlanC meddling ruined my relationship with Sina that I actually cared about because I respect him as a professional and very knowledgeable in his field. At times we got heated and act irrationally on both sides but I know now what was the common denominator of this matter: PlanC continuous machinations. But for what concerns Sina there is no doubt he is an overall plus plus for the community" [X Link](https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/1980271118662426688) [@Giovann35084111](/creator/x/Giovann35084111) 2025-10-20T13:53Z 52.6K followers, 2068 engagements "Gold is ripping again and I think gold is a harbinger for Bitcoin in these circumstances" [X Link](https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/1980277210851197182) [@Giovann35084111](/creator/x/Giovann35084111) 2025-10-20T14:17Z 52.6K followers, 15.1K engagements "We know he is a meme and a literal idiot (or maybe street smart and does this on purpose). Gold went up 3x in XX years Bitcoin went up 100000000x in the same time. Gold is dirty exponential it will collapse at a point to lower values and not change much. It is meant to be a store of value. In the next XX years it will go up again by a factor of few to simply keep up with inflation. Bitcoin that grows as a noble power law is a multiplier of value. It will be 10x in X years and 100x in XX years. But beside growing value and beating inflation to a pulp the value of Bitcoin is that it is a true" [X Link](https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/1980293713340330352) [@Giovann35084111](/creator/x/Giovann35084111) 2025-10-20T15:23Z 52.6K followers, 9868 engagements "Forest fires are another example of power law growth. How fast a forest fire grows often follows a power law pattern. This is another analogy one can use for the process of Orange Pilling it is literally like a forest fire burning the ignorance of fiat and bringing the light of freedom to millions" [X Link](https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/1980296801010745425) [@Giovann35084111](/creator/x/Giovann35084111) 2025-10-20T15:35Z 52.6K followers, 2620 engagements "Instead of admitting S2F is trash he continues to peddle this stupid model as relevant. He mentions a bunch of meaningless words. Thousands of likes from people that do not understand a single word he is saying. Is this really the X Bitcoiner scene" [X Link](https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/1980298623306146239) [@Giovann35084111](/creator/x/Giovann35084111) 2025-10-20T15:42Z 52.7K followers, 5872 engagements "I think Gold is an analog Bitcoin. It tries to do what Bitcoin does but it is limited. S2F is a bs concept for Bitcoin. I wrote several articles and made videos explaining in detail while S2F is already a bad concept for commodities but absurdly stupid for Bitcoin. Plus the math is clear BTC price is not correlated in a meaningful way with S2F. Like none" [X Link](https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/1980303834242027990) [@Giovann35084111](/creator/x/Giovann35084111) 2025-10-20T16:03Z 52.6K followers, 2958 engagements "It is not like that. The power law is rigorously proven to be correct and it also a framework to understand Bitcoin deeply. S2F principle is scarcity while the power law is about adoption and cooperation. S2F is mathematically physically and conceptually wrong. There is no argument there is no debate it is pure math. The Power Law instead talks about the math of networks and the fact Bitcoin behaves like a force of nature similar to the growth of biologicl entities cities and intelligence. It is a big deal independently of price prediction. It is the best argument based on data and" [X Link](https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/1980307010529767765) [@Giovann35084111](/creator/x/Giovann35084111) 2025-10-20T16:15Z 52.7K followers, 6776 engagements "@Bitcoin_ator No over the short term is flat (last XX years) exponential over the short term (last few months) and exponential over the long term. But it is a slow growing exponential barely beating inflation" [X Link](https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/1980327003850174848) [@Giovann35084111](/creator/x/Giovann35084111) 2025-10-20T17:35Z 52.7K followers, 3284 engagements "Aluminum is trash now It was more valuable than gold once. Bitcoin fixes that" [X Link](https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/1980524316812013728) [@Giovann35084111](/creator/x/Giovann35084111) 2025-10-21T06:39Z 52.6K followers, 4853 engagements "@therationalroot Why this regularity Because Bitcoin follows what is called a power law spiral" [X Link](https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/1980615426007577016) [@Giovann35084111](/creator/x/Giovann35084111) 2025-10-21T12:41Z 52.6K followers, 1565 engagements "@Xuan05 But I'm an angry bitchy scientist" [X Link](https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/1980619353142804812) [@Giovann35084111](/creator/x/Giovann35084111) 2025-10-21T12:57Z 52.6K followers, XXX engagements "Ok my plan to be a Bitcoin powered cyborg is a step closer to reality" [X Link](https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/1980622489597137148) [@Giovann35084111](/creator/x/Giovann35084111) 2025-10-21T13:09Z 52.6K followers, 5079 engagements "@maxkeiser @trevbeco But it is wrong. You can do Granger Causality and show price leads hashrate" [X Link](https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/1980974501341827457) [@Giovann35084111](/creator/x/Giovann35084111) 2025-10-22T12:28Z 52.6K followers, XXX engagements "@jackmallers @elonmusk Scarcity is not it. Bitcoin is better than gold because it is a network" [X Link](https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/1981373593058517499) [@Giovann35084111](/creator/x/Giovann35084111) 2025-10-23T14:54Z 52.7K followers, XXX engagements "I'm in Sophia Bulgaria. Interesting place. I will report more from the Bitcoin Balkan conference" [X Link](https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/1978827983348490736) [@Giovann35084111](/creator/x/Giovann35084111) 2025-10-16T14:18Z 52.7K followers, 3392 engagements "I like this theory of aging. We age because our cells lose clear direction. That applies to everything individuals society civilization. Always have purpose in your life" [X Link](https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/1978380299504422979) [@Giovann35084111](/creator/x/Giovann35084111) 2025-10-15T08:39Z 52.7K followers, 9261 engagements "@TheRealPlanC Same model I proposed several months ago what is different" [X Link](https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/1978486522132267043) [@Giovann35084111](/creator/x/Giovann35084111) 2025-10-15T15:42Z 52.7K followers, 3124 engagements "Tell the difference" [X Link](https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/1978486630655693054) [@Giovann35084111](/creator/x/Giovann35084111) 2025-10-15T15:42Z 52.7K followers, 25.3K engagements "This is becoming silly. I criticized the quantile model and proposed in an article a way to fix it. This was many months ago. PlanC resisted it and now he came out with the same model I proposed and it is now HIS model and trending news. Is it because he has a cute anonymous face" [X Link](https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/1978726084523831726) [@Giovann35084111](/creator/x/Giovann35084111) 2025-10-16T07:33Z 52.7K followers, 33.4K engagements "I'm in Sophia at a conference. I love Bulgaria so far. We had a social event and it is great to see so many Bitcoiners in a relatively small country. But interacting in person with people I can see how people resist to the power law. There were supporters too but I had some animated discussions with X individuals who mentioned one of the strongest misunderstandings and mental blocks I can imagine: you are using the USD as a denominator. This is one of the silliest arguments against the power law for many reasons. I will have to write an entire article on this given I see now so many people" [X Link](https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/1979312319172575454) [@Giovann35084111](/creator/x/Giovann35084111) 2025-10-17T22:23Z 52.7K followers, 3928 engagements "This remains my best interview to date. It is the best because @Breedlove22 is a genuine person he was well prepared (he even has a series of interviews with physicist G. West a world expert in power laws) and a bright and curious mind. Also the live interview vs one over the internet changed our dynamics. If you want to really go deep on the Power Law Theory and understand its significance watch this interview you will learn about the beauty and power of Bitcoin from a scientific point of view. The link is in the comments" [X Link](https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/1920479574267474371) [@Giovann35084111](/creator/x/Giovann35084111) 2025-05-08T14:03Z 52.7K followers, 118.4K engagements "Gold is not adopted. There is nothing to adopt. It is an asset used in uncertain times as a hedging tool. China is playing anti-dollar games with it. Bitcoin is a scaling phenomenon. It will be 100x in XX years. Gold cannot because people would find ways to mine much more even in non efficient ways for example if it did and price will collapse and then stabilize. Gold is Temu Bitcoin" [X Link](https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/1978686343808012626) [@Giovann35084111](/creator/x/Giovann35084111) 2025-10-16T04:56Z 52.7K followers, 34.3K engagements "Ryanair is worse than Spirit airlines. I will make a full report later but you should know it is not even possible to make a video of the interaction with their customer service at the airport because they call the police given "privacy laws"" [X Link](https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/1978756110073856145) [@Giovann35084111](/creator/x/Giovann35084111) 2025-10-16T09:33Z 52.7K followers, 3603 engagements "Monte Carlo projections for the next X weeks. 124K is within likely paths. If we correct the possible value is around 100K" [X Link](https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/1980095761825337527) [@Giovann35084111](/creator/x/Giovann35084111) 2025-10-20T02:16Z 52.7K followers, 21.5K engagements "This is really the essence. Bitcoin is a network and it behaves as a network. The power law is evidence that this is the case. No gold no SP500 no real estate behaves in this way just a myriad of other information networks including cities and life itself. Bitcoin is not an asset; it is the universe of human value expressing itself in math" [X Link](https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/1980231816859500659) [@Giovann35084111](/creator/x/Giovann35084111) 2025-10-20T11:17Z 52.7K followers, 25.2K engagements "Why this regularity Bitcoin follows what is called a power law spiral" [X Link](https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/1980615151909814304) [@Giovann35084111](/creator/x/Giovann35084111) 2025-10-21T12:40Z 52.7K followers, 10.7K engagements "We are going to have a short Physics of Bitcoin show to re-establish our weekly episodes. I'm still in Europe (going to PlanB conference in Lugano today) and we are trying to figure out the best time for the show. Today the show will be at 11:15 AM Europe time. Here is the agenda:" [X Link](https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/1980921467702304947) [@Giovann35084111](/creator/x/Giovann35084111) 2025-10-22T08:57Z 52.7K followers, 4035 engagements ""The Physics of Bitcoin" with Giovanni and Stephen #33 9/17/2025" [X Link](https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/1980926961930432773) [@Giovann35084111](/creator/x/Giovann35084111) 2025-10-22T09:19Z 52.7K followers, 6590 engagements "Basically I didn't change much" [X Link](https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/1980975053748535745) [@Giovann35084111](/creator/x/Giovann35084111) 2025-10-22T12:30Z 52.7K followers, 13K engagements "Please learn about scaling. It is really like learning to read or do basic math. Bitcoin follows scaling laws. It will take X years to X M and XX to XX M. It is physics not some arbitrary guess" [X Link](https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/1980987723554156923) [@Giovann35084111](/creator/x/Giovann35084111) 2025-10-22T13:20Z 52.7K followers, 26.3K engagements "I'm going to Lugano for PlanB (no not that PlanB). If you want to meet DM me" [X Link](https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/1980990930355433829) [@Giovann35084111](/creator/x/Giovann35084111) 2025-10-22T13:33Z 52.7K followers, 4282 engagements "Lines are superior to any other model because they are simple. If you can characterize a system with one parameter you have found the golden standard of modelling" [X Link](https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/1981277525054517551) [@Giovann35084111](/creator/x/Giovann35084111) 2025-10-23T08:32Z 52.7K followers, 12.5K engagements "The economy of Bitcoin is similar to that of a city. Cities are predictable. Almost all the parameters you can think of like GDP number of patents number of gas stations even how fast somebody walks in a city is are power laws that are universal similar in China the US Europe and so on. This applies to Bitcoin. There is a reason and the reason is that cities are networks and Bitcoin is a network. The people who dismiss the power law don't get this. We are not discussing a model; we are discussing a fundamental framework to understand Bitcoin. Video is linked in the comments" [X Link](https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/1981309374141178094) [@Giovann35084111](/creator/x/Giovann35084111) 2025-10-23T10:39Z 52.7K followers, 5372 engagements "Right it is not me that says this but Bitcoin itself that is telling an important secret about itself" [X Link](https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/1981313675794223373) [@Giovann35084111](/creator/x/Giovann35084111) 2025-10-23T10:56Z 52.7K followers, 6412 engagements "Lugano is beautiful. Perfect place for a Bitcoin hub" [X Link](https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/1981619184799793327) [@Giovann35084111](/creator/x/Giovann35084111) 2025-10-24T07:10Z 52.7K followers, 5807 engagements "I respect @LawrenceLepard but there is not "suddenly" because adoption is a power law that is self similar. Bitcoin wins not by a mythical moment in the future but doing what it has done in XX years" [X Link](https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/1981744030888099933) [@Giovann35084111](/creator/x/Giovann35084111) 2025-10-24T15:26Z 52.7K followers, 28.6K engagements "@LawrenceLepard Yeah let's say that even if these scenarios happen Bitcoin wins anyway" [X Link](https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/1981748775933665401) [@Giovann35084111](/creator/x/Giovann35084111) 2025-10-24T15:45Z 52.7K followers, 3937 engagements "Good question. It is actually hashrate that is catching up. This is why it is so important to understand Bitcoin scientifically. A lot of misunderstanding and people making claims without any evidence in the space" [X Link](https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/1980977000736301512) [@Giovann35084111](/creator/x/Giovann35084111) 2025-10-22T12:38Z 52.7K followers, 5626 engagements "They made a similar test with Bitcoin and showed it is more aerodynamic than gold" [X Link](https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/1981276279476224006) [@Giovann35084111](/creator/x/Giovann35084111) 2025-10-23T08:27Z 52.7K followers, 5407 engagements "@jackmallers @elonmusk The history of humankind is a continuous fight over scarce resources. Bitcoin is supposed to be the way out of all this. It is sad that people see Bitcoin as a scarce resource to fight over it" [X Link](https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/1981380300799348874) [@Giovann35084111](/creator/x/Giovann35084111) 2025-10-23T15:20Z 52.7K followers, 2512 engagements "@llovasi1 @kibo_osu Both because scarcity has specific connotations. It is not just semantics. I never heard the term scarce before the Bitcoin Standard introduced this term" [X Link](https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/1981620842371953128) [@Giovann35084111](/creator/x/Giovann35084111) 2025-10-24T07:16Z 52.7K followers, XX engagements "But this exponential and Bitcoin follows a power law" [X Link](https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/1981745988856385944) [@Giovann35084111](/creator/x/Giovann35084111) 2025-10-24T15:33Z 52.7K followers, 9610 engagements "My recent work follows these steps: 1) divide the log of the daily returns log(P2/P1) by the deterministic function log( (t+1)/t). 2) this quantity is a stochastic quantity that I call normalized returns or local slopes. It fluctuates around the mean value of the global slope XXX. 3) the local slopes are stable over the entire history of Bitcoin meaning a moving average of these values oscillates around the XXX mean. 4) the local slope fit with high statistically significant values a t-location scale distribution with stable mu sigma and nu parameters. 5) this distribution characterizes fully" [X Link](https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/1981861059750236324) [@Giovann35084111](/creator/x/Giovann35084111) 2025-10-24T23:11Z 52.7K followers, 1686 engagements "He is misleading so many people with a mathematically wrong model. It is physically and mathematically wrongl. There is nothing to learn from it and he is misleading people. It makes me furious. There is not a big jump. Even in the past the bull and bear market canceled each other. It was never about jumps. That is what this crappy model claims and it is one of its fundamental idiotic things about it. One can show clearly that the progression of the price happens all the time not just during the bubbles and folows a power in time not a power law of S2F as PlanB claims. This is another" [X Link](https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/1980301072229916737) [@Giovann35084111](/creator/x/Giovann35084111) 2025-10-20T15:52Z 52.7K followers, 11.7K engagements "@llovasi1 @kibo_osu I mean scarce in the context of Bitcoin" [X Link](https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/1981621097612312789) [@Giovann35084111](/creator/x/Giovann35084111) 2025-10-24T07:17Z 52.7K followers, XX engagements "I've been impressed for XX years" [X Link](https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/1981740448826699860) [@Giovann35084111](/creator/x/Giovann35084111) 2025-10-24T15:11Z 52.7K followers, 8816 engagements "Bitcoins wins by sudden surrender of the fiat world or by gradual unstoppable conquest (that right now is the base case). Anyway the victory of Bitcoin is inevitable" [X Link](https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/1981750321899622850) [@Giovann35084111](/creator/x/Giovann35084111) 2025-10-24T15:51Z 52.7K followers, 7829 engagements "@Madosatoshist @Bitcoin_8316 You are missing the point" [X Link](https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/1981988677753458806) [@Giovann35084111](/creator/x/Giovann35084111) 2025-10-25T07:38Z 52.7K followers, XX engagements "@Snz_BTC @kibo_osu Yes" [X Link](https://x.com/Giovann35084111/status/1981989432338120826) [@Giovann35084111](/creator/x/Giovann35084111) 2025-10-25T07:41Z 52.7K followers, XX engagements
[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]
@Giovann35084111
"Many people say "but the power law has the dollar as a denominator" but you can flip the relationship in a trivial way and have Bitcoin as the denominator. In that case the power law goes down instead of up (everything goes to X relative to Bitcoin). Furthermore you can use oil real estate gold anything as your nominator: all power laws. Please let's stop this absurd argument of "you are using the dollar" as a denominator. It is a meaningless criticism"
X Link @Giovann35084111 2025-10-21T12:32Z 52.7K followers, 18.1K engagements
"As long as Bitcoin is a network it will follow the power law"
X Link @Giovann35084111 2025-10-23T09:06Z 52.7K followers, 8502 engagements
"It is not. It is because Bitcoin is a network and gold is not. It is that simple. People will finally understand Bitcoin when the fixation on scarcity is over"
X Link @Giovann35084111 2025-10-23T14:53Z 52.7K followers, 27.7K engagements
"It is not scarcity that matters. It is the perfect ledger. The finiteness of the supply solves the monetary policy consensus issue. Instead of consensus via committee or democratic vote it is established at Genesis once and for all. But this is not scarcity it is predictability"
X Link @Giovann35084111 2025-10-23T15:16Z 52.7K followers, 2267 engagements
"The fact we will have the singularity in XX years is one of the reasons I don't do Bitcoin projections beyond that date"
X Link @Giovann35084111 2025-10-14T06:59Z 52.6K followers, 10.6K engagements
"PlanC as always pretends to be what is not. Let me give you an example. He mentions "stretched exponentials". I explained the concept to him but actually they are a possible bug not an useful feature of these models. Everything looks like an exponential if you use a far away origin. The problem is that you can go so far by prompting Chat GPT but if you have no true foundation in the topic you claim to be an expert in there will be obvious misconceptions and misinformation. That is what really bothers me in the end about all this"
X Link @Giovann35084111 2025-10-16T16:03Z 52.6K followers, 10.4K engagements
"This is a good question. Yes gold is bigger in market cap so relatively small movements in gold mean large market cap changes. But this actually shows why Bitcoin is a better long term investment because it has room to grow. Gold cannot grow a factor of XX just cannot in terms of what would be involved in capital invested ratio to other assets and all sorts of problems the infrastructure will suffer if it was valued even more"
X Link @Giovann35084111 2025-10-17T09:49Z 52.6K followers, 9519 engagements
"For now. Soon these AIs will also live in the physical world. They could have their own laboratories and factories. This is the start. I don't understand people who don't understand that these are minds more capable than our own. And again this is just the beginning"
X Link @Giovann35084111 2025-10-17T14:51Z 52.6K followers, 6382 engagements
"Funny Sina scolding PlanC about not recognizing him as the mind behind the quantile model when both of them had no clue of the power law at all until I showed it to them. This latest form of the quantile regression is actually something I proposed to both of them and they rejected it initially. I wrote a full article on why it was better than vanilla quantile. Now it is their model so absurd. The quantile model is the power law by the way. This is so funny and it is coming full circle. LOLLLLL"
X Link @Giovann35084111 2025-10-17T22:57Z 52.6K followers, 4637 engagements
"The most egregious statement from PlanC showing how he really doesn't understand the power law at all is: "If the decay function breaks the power law may break as well". Absurd. 1) The decay function seems already broken. 2) The decay is about the residuals so what is left after the power law. We know that these residuals have a small weight in the overall behavior of Bitcoin. Just X %. They are a side show not the main show. 3) Exponential are not stable that is the main message we are repeating over and over. Scaling laws are stable. Not understanding all this means PlanC has no clue of"
X Link @Giovann35084111 2025-10-17T23:29Z 52.6K followers, 7174 engagements
"All this is so amazing to watch. What Sina describes about PlanC I described about both of them. Sina lacks physics understanding and intuition for example. He has no clue about why power laws are important. Working together is great but one has to be transparent on who contributed what. People that say that don't care about the drama they never created something valuable"
X Link @Giovann35084111 2025-10-18T05:56Z 52.6K followers, 7345 engagements
"Beautiful system thinking slide about foundational innovations"
X Link @Giovann35084111 2025-10-18T10:20Z 52.6K followers, 3924 engagements
"I had a couple of women leaving me for that"
X Link @Giovann35084111 2025-10-18T10:59Z 52.6K followers, 11.2K engagements
"Here is a video from X months ago. I discuss why Quantile V1 is problematic and I give a resolution. I explain how to build a better version of the Quantile model and I call it Unicorn Quantile (because it looks it has a horn). This is now what PlanC calls V2. The exact same model I proposed as an improvement claiming he is the author of it. Ridiculous. I have the receipts and am tired of PlanC plagiarizing mine and others' work"
X Link @Giovann35084111 2025-10-19T09:04Z 52.6K followers, 5309 engagements
"I'm going to write an article on the history of the modeling of Bitcoin. I had some confrontation with @sminston_with at a point but I think it was created mostly by @TheRealPlanC interference in the relationship. Since then we have been respectful to each other and in general I like his work and he has been most of the time very professional and respectful. He has serious analytical power and also a foundational understanding of the topic involved in this research. He was one of the first people to make good quantile regression models it seems before PlanC and in particular he had the idea"
X Link @Giovann35084111 2025-10-19T09:54Z 52.6K followers, 8044 engagements
"@TheRealPlanC Here is by the way the convo I had with PlanC where I explained to him how to construct V2. This Feb 2024 then in April 2024 I wrote article with step-by-step instructions"
X Link @Giovann35084111 2025-10-19T22:57Z 52.6K followers, 2646 engagements
"Networks and power laws are not 1-to-1. Networks are complex systems so they can show many behaviors. But it seems that most networks in nature prefer to organize themselves in such a way as to show power law properties. This is the case for social networks cities organisms and so on. There are different mechanisms behind this organization and I'm also studying them to see how relevant they are in understanding Bitcoin. One mechanism is called "preferential attachment" where a few nodes are more important than others. This leads to scale-invariant behavior and it is actually a good feature"
X Link @Giovann35084111 2025-10-20T11:49Z 52.6K followers, 4832 engagements
"Please watch the video in the comment. It is a wonderful 7-minute video about the relevance and importance of networks in our lives. Barabasi is a physicist and one of the founders of Network Science. Barabasi showed that many networks have power law properties. While you watch the video think about how Bitcoin is another instance of these networks and how amazing it is that Bitcoin is not an asset but one of these wonderful meaningful networks with enormous impact and relevance in our lives. Video link in the comments"
X Link @Giovann35084111 2025-10-20T12:04Z 52.6K followers, 5609 engagements
"Link to the video:"
X Link @Giovann35084111 2025-10-20T12:05Z 52.6K followers, 5931 engagements
"I can attest that every single thing Sina said about PlanC is the same almost word by word experience that I had with PlanC. I lamented that PlanC meddling ruined my relationship with Sina that I actually cared about because I respect him as a professional and very knowledgeable in his field. At times we got heated and act irrationally on both sides but I know now what was the common denominator of this matter: PlanC continuous machinations. But for what concerns Sina there is no doubt he is an overall plus plus for the community"
X Link @Giovann35084111 2025-10-20T13:53Z 52.6K followers, 2068 engagements
"Gold is ripping again and I think gold is a harbinger for Bitcoin in these circumstances"
X Link @Giovann35084111 2025-10-20T14:17Z 52.6K followers, 15.1K engagements
"We know he is a meme and a literal idiot (or maybe street smart and does this on purpose). Gold went up 3x in XX years Bitcoin went up 100000000x in the same time. Gold is dirty exponential it will collapse at a point to lower values and not change much. It is meant to be a store of value. In the next XX years it will go up again by a factor of few to simply keep up with inflation. Bitcoin that grows as a noble power law is a multiplier of value. It will be 10x in X years and 100x in XX years. But beside growing value and beating inflation to a pulp the value of Bitcoin is that it is a true"
X Link @Giovann35084111 2025-10-20T15:23Z 52.6K followers, 9868 engagements
"Forest fires are another example of power law growth. How fast a forest fire grows often follows a power law pattern. This is another analogy one can use for the process of Orange Pilling it is literally like a forest fire burning the ignorance of fiat and bringing the light of freedom to millions"
X Link @Giovann35084111 2025-10-20T15:35Z 52.6K followers, 2620 engagements
"Instead of admitting S2F is trash he continues to peddle this stupid model as relevant. He mentions a bunch of meaningless words. Thousands of likes from people that do not understand a single word he is saying. Is this really the X Bitcoiner scene"
X Link @Giovann35084111 2025-10-20T15:42Z 52.7K followers, 5872 engagements
"I think Gold is an analog Bitcoin. It tries to do what Bitcoin does but it is limited. S2F is a bs concept for Bitcoin. I wrote several articles and made videos explaining in detail while S2F is already a bad concept for commodities but absurdly stupid for Bitcoin. Plus the math is clear BTC price is not correlated in a meaningful way with S2F. Like none"
X Link @Giovann35084111 2025-10-20T16:03Z 52.6K followers, 2958 engagements
"It is not like that. The power law is rigorously proven to be correct and it also a framework to understand Bitcoin deeply. S2F principle is scarcity while the power law is about adoption and cooperation. S2F is mathematically physically and conceptually wrong. There is no argument there is no debate it is pure math. The Power Law instead talks about the math of networks and the fact Bitcoin behaves like a force of nature similar to the growth of biologicl entities cities and intelligence. It is a big deal independently of price prediction. It is the best argument based on data and"
X Link @Giovann35084111 2025-10-20T16:15Z 52.7K followers, 6776 engagements
"@Bitcoin_ator No over the short term is flat (last XX years) exponential over the short term (last few months) and exponential over the long term. But it is a slow growing exponential barely beating inflation"
X Link @Giovann35084111 2025-10-20T17:35Z 52.7K followers, 3284 engagements
"Aluminum is trash now It was more valuable than gold once. Bitcoin fixes that"
X Link @Giovann35084111 2025-10-21T06:39Z 52.6K followers, 4853 engagements
"@therationalroot Why this regularity Because Bitcoin follows what is called a power law spiral"
X Link @Giovann35084111 2025-10-21T12:41Z 52.6K followers, 1565 engagements
"@Xuan05 But I'm an angry bitchy scientist"
X Link @Giovann35084111 2025-10-21T12:57Z 52.6K followers, XXX engagements
"Ok my plan to be a Bitcoin powered cyborg is a step closer to reality"
X Link @Giovann35084111 2025-10-21T13:09Z 52.6K followers, 5079 engagements
"@maxkeiser @trevbeco But it is wrong. You can do Granger Causality and show price leads hashrate"
X Link @Giovann35084111 2025-10-22T12:28Z 52.6K followers, XXX engagements
"@jackmallers @elonmusk Scarcity is not it. Bitcoin is better than gold because it is a network"
X Link @Giovann35084111 2025-10-23T14:54Z 52.7K followers, XXX engagements
"I'm in Sophia Bulgaria. Interesting place. I will report more from the Bitcoin Balkan conference"
X Link @Giovann35084111 2025-10-16T14:18Z 52.7K followers, 3392 engagements
"I like this theory of aging. We age because our cells lose clear direction. That applies to everything individuals society civilization. Always have purpose in your life"
X Link @Giovann35084111 2025-10-15T08:39Z 52.7K followers, 9261 engagements
"@TheRealPlanC Same model I proposed several months ago what is different"
X Link @Giovann35084111 2025-10-15T15:42Z 52.7K followers, 3124 engagements
"Tell the difference"
X Link @Giovann35084111 2025-10-15T15:42Z 52.7K followers, 25.3K engagements
"This is becoming silly. I criticized the quantile model and proposed in an article a way to fix it. This was many months ago. PlanC resisted it and now he came out with the same model I proposed and it is now HIS model and trending news. Is it because he has a cute anonymous face"
X Link @Giovann35084111 2025-10-16T07:33Z 52.7K followers, 33.4K engagements
"I'm in Sophia at a conference. I love Bulgaria so far. We had a social event and it is great to see so many Bitcoiners in a relatively small country. But interacting in person with people I can see how people resist to the power law. There were supporters too but I had some animated discussions with X individuals who mentioned one of the strongest misunderstandings and mental blocks I can imagine: you are using the USD as a denominator. This is one of the silliest arguments against the power law for many reasons. I will have to write an entire article on this given I see now so many people"
X Link @Giovann35084111 2025-10-17T22:23Z 52.7K followers, 3928 engagements
"This remains my best interview to date. It is the best because @Breedlove22 is a genuine person he was well prepared (he even has a series of interviews with physicist G. West a world expert in power laws) and a bright and curious mind. Also the live interview vs one over the internet changed our dynamics. If you want to really go deep on the Power Law Theory and understand its significance watch this interview you will learn about the beauty and power of Bitcoin from a scientific point of view. The link is in the comments"
X Link @Giovann35084111 2025-05-08T14:03Z 52.7K followers, 118.4K engagements
"Gold is not adopted. There is nothing to adopt. It is an asset used in uncertain times as a hedging tool. China is playing anti-dollar games with it. Bitcoin is a scaling phenomenon. It will be 100x in XX years. Gold cannot because people would find ways to mine much more even in non efficient ways for example if it did and price will collapse and then stabilize. Gold is Temu Bitcoin"
X Link @Giovann35084111 2025-10-16T04:56Z 52.7K followers, 34.3K engagements
"Ryanair is worse than Spirit airlines. I will make a full report later but you should know it is not even possible to make a video of the interaction with their customer service at the airport because they call the police given "privacy laws""
X Link @Giovann35084111 2025-10-16T09:33Z 52.7K followers, 3603 engagements
"Monte Carlo projections for the next X weeks. 124K is within likely paths. If we correct the possible value is around 100K"
X Link @Giovann35084111 2025-10-20T02:16Z 52.7K followers, 21.5K engagements
"This is really the essence. Bitcoin is a network and it behaves as a network. The power law is evidence that this is the case. No gold no SP500 no real estate behaves in this way just a myriad of other information networks including cities and life itself. Bitcoin is not an asset; it is the universe of human value expressing itself in math"
X Link @Giovann35084111 2025-10-20T11:17Z 52.7K followers, 25.2K engagements
"Why this regularity Bitcoin follows what is called a power law spiral"
X Link @Giovann35084111 2025-10-21T12:40Z 52.7K followers, 10.7K engagements
"We are going to have a short Physics of Bitcoin show to re-establish our weekly episodes. I'm still in Europe (going to PlanB conference in Lugano today) and we are trying to figure out the best time for the show. Today the show will be at 11:15 AM Europe time. Here is the agenda:"
X Link @Giovann35084111 2025-10-22T08:57Z 52.7K followers, 4035 engagements
""The Physics of Bitcoin" with Giovanni and Stephen #33 9/17/2025"
X Link @Giovann35084111 2025-10-22T09:19Z 52.7K followers, 6590 engagements
"Basically I didn't change much"
X Link @Giovann35084111 2025-10-22T12:30Z 52.7K followers, 13K engagements
"Please learn about scaling. It is really like learning to read or do basic math. Bitcoin follows scaling laws. It will take X years to X M and XX to XX M. It is physics not some arbitrary guess"
X Link @Giovann35084111 2025-10-22T13:20Z 52.7K followers, 26.3K engagements
"I'm going to Lugano for PlanB (no not that PlanB). If you want to meet DM me"
X Link @Giovann35084111 2025-10-22T13:33Z 52.7K followers, 4282 engagements
"Lines are superior to any other model because they are simple. If you can characterize a system with one parameter you have found the golden standard of modelling"
X Link @Giovann35084111 2025-10-23T08:32Z 52.7K followers, 12.5K engagements
"The economy of Bitcoin is similar to that of a city. Cities are predictable. Almost all the parameters you can think of like GDP number of patents number of gas stations even how fast somebody walks in a city is are power laws that are universal similar in China the US Europe and so on. This applies to Bitcoin. There is a reason and the reason is that cities are networks and Bitcoin is a network. The people who dismiss the power law don't get this. We are not discussing a model; we are discussing a fundamental framework to understand Bitcoin. Video is linked in the comments"
X Link @Giovann35084111 2025-10-23T10:39Z 52.7K followers, 5372 engagements
"Right it is not me that says this but Bitcoin itself that is telling an important secret about itself"
X Link @Giovann35084111 2025-10-23T10:56Z 52.7K followers, 6412 engagements
"Lugano is beautiful. Perfect place for a Bitcoin hub"
X Link @Giovann35084111 2025-10-24T07:10Z 52.7K followers, 5807 engagements
"I respect @LawrenceLepard but there is not "suddenly" because adoption is a power law that is self similar. Bitcoin wins not by a mythical moment in the future but doing what it has done in XX years"
X Link @Giovann35084111 2025-10-24T15:26Z 52.7K followers, 28.6K engagements
"@LawrenceLepard Yeah let's say that even if these scenarios happen Bitcoin wins anyway"
X Link @Giovann35084111 2025-10-24T15:45Z 52.7K followers, 3937 engagements
"Good question. It is actually hashrate that is catching up. This is why it is so important to understand Bitcoin scientifically. A lot of misunderstanding and people making claims without any evidence in the space"
X Link @Giovann35084111 2025-10-22T12:38Z 52.7K followers, 5626 engagements
"They made a similar test with Bitcoin and showed it is more aerodynamic than gold"
X Link @Giovann35084111 2025-10-23T08:27Z 52.7K followers, 5407 engagements
"@jackmallers @elonmusk The history of humankind is a continuous fight over scarce resources. Bitcoin is supposed to be the way out of all this. It is sad that people see Bitcoin as a scarce resource to fight over it"
X Link @Giovann35084111 2025-10-23T15:20Z 52.7K followers, 2512 engagements
"@llovasi1 @kibo_osu Both because scarcity has specific connotations. It is not just semantics. I never heard the term scarce before the Bitcoin Standard introduced this term"
X Link @Giovann35084111 2025-10-24T07:16Z 52.7K followers, XX engagements
"But this exponential and Bitcoin follows a power law"
X Link @Giovann35084111 2025-10-24T15:33Z 52.7K followers, 9610 engagements
"My recent work follows these steps: 1) divide the log of the daily returns log(P2/P1) by the deterministic function log( (t+1)/t). 2) this quantity is a stochastic quantity that I call normalized returns or local slopes. It fluctuates around the mean value of the global slope XXX. 3) the local slopes are stable over the entire history of Bitcoin meaning a moving average of these values oscillates around the XXX mean. 4) the local slope fit with high statistically significant values a t-location scale distribution with stable mu sigma and nu parameters. 5) this distribution characterizes fully"
X Link @Giovann35084111 2025-10-24T23:11Z 52.7K followers, 1686 engagements
"He is misleading so many people with a mathematically wrong model. It is physically and mathematically wrongl. There is nothing to learn from it and he is misleading people. It makes me furious. There is not a big jump. Even in the past the bull and bear market canceled each other. It was never about jumps. That is what this crappy model claims and it is one of its fundamental idiotic things about it. One can show clearly that the progression of the price happens all the time not just during the bubbles and folows a power in time not a power law of S2F as PlanB claims. This is another"
X Link @Giovann35084111 2025-10-20T15:52Z 52.7K followers, 11.7K engagements
"@llovasi1 @kibo_osu I mean scarce in the context of Bitcoin"
X Link @Giovann35084111 2025-10-24T07:17Z 52.7K followers, XX engagements
"I've been impressed for XX years"
X Link @Giovann35084111 2025-10-24T15:11Z 52.7K followers, 8816 engagements
"Bitcoins wins by sudden surrender of the fiat world or by gradual unstoppable conquest (that right now is the base case). Anyway the victory of Bitcoin is inevitable"
X Link @Giovann35084111 2025-10-24T15:51Z 52.7K followers, 7829 engagements
"@Madosatoshist @Bitcoin_8316 You are missing the point"
X Link @Giovann35084111 2025-10-25T07:38Z 52.7K followers, XX engagements
"@Snz_BTC @kibo_osu Yes"
X Link @Giovann35084111 2025-10-25T07:41Z 52.7K followers, XX engagements
/creator/twitter::1234262786017910784/posts