# ![@secretlyaninja Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::752592066.png) @secretlyaninja secretlyaninja

secretlyaninja posts on X about $rmlff, $gdrzf, $iwg, $vty the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::752592066/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::752592066/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [------] +28%
- [--] Month [------] +1,187%
- [--] Months [-------] -61%
- [--] Year [-------] +100%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::752592066/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::752592066/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- [--] Week [--] +111%
- [--] Month [--] +45%
- [--] Months [---] +3.30%
- [--] Year [---] +41%

### Followers: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::752592066/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::752592066/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- [--] Week [-----] +3.40%
- [--] Month [-----] +6.90%
- [--] Months [-----] +24%
- [--] Year [-----] +128%

### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::752592066/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::752592066/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[finance](/list/finance)  [stocks](/list/stocks)  [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  [currencies](/list/currencies)  [countries](/list/countries)  [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  [social networks](/list/social-networks)  [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations)  [us election](/list/us-election)  [musicians](/list/musicians) 

**Social topic influence**
[$rmlff](/topic/$rmlff), [$gdrzf](/topic/$gdrzf), [$iwg](/topic/$iwg), [$vty](/topic/$vty), [debt](/topic/debt), [$kitw](/topic/$kitw) #1, [$unfi](/topic/$unfi), [$rely](/topic/$rely) #2, [bid](/topic/bid), [$virt](/topic/$virt)

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@puppyeh1](/creator/undefined) [@kingdomcapadv](/creator/undefined) [@fishtowncap](/creator/undefined) [@shafrontom](/creator/undefined) [@capitalobserver](/creator/undefined) [@jonlitt](/creator/undefined) [@danban](/creator/undefined) [@andrewrangeley](/creator/undefined) [@aggiecapitalist](/creator/undefined) [@ragingbullcap](/creator/undefined) [@wolfowlvi](/creator/undefined) [@andrewcoye](/creator/undefined) [@altaycapital](/creator/undefined) [@trekbroker](/creator/undefined) [@jay21](/creator/undefined) [@stressedassets](/creator/undefined) [@lionelhutzesq](/creator/undefined) [@acidinvestments](/creator/undefined) [@mrneutralman](/creator/undefined) [@zerosumgame33](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Unifi Protocol DAO (UNFI)](/topic/$unfi) [Remitly Global, Inc. (RELY)](/topic/$rely) [Virtu Financial, Inc. Class A (VIRT)](/topic/$virt) [United Parks & Resorts Inc. (PRKS)](/topic/$prks) [Aercap Holdings N.V. (AER)](/topic/$aer) [Cigna Corp (CI)](/topic/$ci) [StaFi (FIS)](/topic/$fis) [Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL)](/topic/$ncdl) [Fiserv, Inc. (FI)](/topic/$fi) [Clipper Realty Inc. Common Stock (CLPR)](/topic/$clpr) [MYX Finance (MYX)](/topic/$myx) [Wise (WISE)](/topic/$wise) [Team Heretics Fan Token (TH)](/topic/$th) [CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW)](/topic/$cxw) [United Therapeutics, Corp. (UTHR)](/topic/$uthr) [ArchLoot (AL)](/topic/$al) [Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. (IBKR)](/topic/$ibkr) [Liquidia Corporation Common Stock (LQDA)](/topic/$lqda) [Treehouse Foods, Inc. (THS)](/topic/$ths) [NVR, Inc. (NVR)](/topic/$nvr) [Blue Owl Capital Corporation (OBDC)](/topic/$obdc) [Rally (RLY)](/topic/rally)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"@marcus locked me out of my savings account after I tried to withdraw cash. Rep says someone will call me back in [--] to [--] days to unlock. Anyone else having trouble What good is MM account if I can't get to my money"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1274048002601168901)  2020-06-19T18:34Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@marcus After [--] days [--] calls and hours on hold I was allowed to log back into my account. I don't need this kind of headache for 1% a year"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1274354181302824968)  2020-06-20T14:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@AndrewRangeley @ChrisDeMuthJr Does the stalled $MANU sale change his thesis on $VATE Any new $VATE developments Thanks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1707373960789160081)  2023-09-28T12:37Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@DieHardCapital @AndrewRangeley Great talk but was disappointed you guys didn't discuss $CLPR. High leverage but at prop level. Nearly all debt fixed until [----] and rents screaming higher in NYC so FFO growing. Yet stock taking a 💩. Am I missing something 🤔"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1711775349623636360)  2023-10-10T16:07Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@puppyeh1 BV is also understated since $2.7 billion claim against insurers is not included. $AER collected $645 million so far from Russian state-owned insurer for Aeroflot planes. Likely more payouts coming for private RUS airlines next followed by AIG settlement thereafter"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1724265529546875253)  2023-11-14T03:18Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@jnordvig Mester a voting member in [----] said a rate cut in March is too early"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1746681433106600314)  2024-01-14T23:51Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@fin_capital The saddest/funniest part of this is that $UTHR is a public benefit corp that's desperately trying to keep a better drug off the market so that it can keep making more money than it deserves"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1760659025882951898)  2024-02-22T13:33Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@puppyeh1 $AL's gap to $AER wider than ever. I have $AL trading at 0.83x TBV and $AER at 1.26x which seems way out of line. This trade should work but $AER fanboys running wild at the moment. https://app.koyfin.com/share/2dd48341f3 https://app.koyfin.com/share/2dd48341f3"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1795291027143840161)  2024-05-28T03:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@boazweinstein @BlackRock You are doing God's work. But what sorta work was @BlackRock doing to shareholders before you got involved 👹"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1795888852181147818)  2024-05-29T18:44Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@scroogecapital @LionelHutz_Esq $UTHR conduct in this $LQDA case moving beyond the bounds of commercial reasonableness 🤡"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1796895953607111122)  2024-06-01T13:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@puppyeh1 Why $AER $AER trading at 1.3x TBV/S while $AL at 0.8x. $AER no longer that undervalued vs aircraft value compared to $AL so the benefit from arbitrage (sell aircraft to buyback stock) much less. $AL should close the gap with $AER once mgmt sees the light. 💡"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1805948554604646504)  2024-06-26T12:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@ShafronTom @puppyeh1 Compare the impact of stock buyback at a discount to BV and let me know what you find. $AER's higher ROE is largely function of high SBB which $AL can do. Also $AER SBB impact now that stock is far above TBV. Gotta look at where the puck is going not where it's been"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1805955131348865534)  2024-06-26T13:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@FishtownCap @ShafronTom @puppyeh1 D2E ratios of $AL and $AER are nearly identical at 2.7x using standard definition. $AER's is lower only if you use mgmt definition which moves $1.1 bil of sub debt to equity (why 🤷♂)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1806017509381832791)  2024-06-26T17:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@FishtownCap @ShafronTom @puppyeh1 SBB is THE reason why $AER ROE is higher. Its S/E has been massively lowered by SBB (Russian insurance earnings etc.). It is not earnings massive more on 🍎to🍎 basis. E.g. its A320 are earning similar lease rates to $AL's A320 on age-adj basis"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1806018369541300352)  2024-06-26T17:35Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@FishtownCap @ShafronTom @puppyeh1 Is $AER's gain-on-sale margin higher Yes but due to mix and higher fleet age. All aircraft lessors do straight line depre. When used aircraft values are higher than expected older planes (like ones $AER have sold) will have high GoS. $AL's fleet is newer"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1806019379211227322)  2024-06-26T17:39Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@FishtownCap @ShafronTom @puppyeh1 $AER may have more GoS opportunities but $AL will have the benefit of longer useful life"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1806019697747628362)  2024-06-26T17:40Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@FishtownCap @ShafronTom @puppyeh1 Most importantly $AER's opportunity to goose ROE is lower. Mgmt won't be able to buy stock at 0.6x BV. $AER already signaling lower SBB ahead. Initiated dividend. $3 billion engine order. All of that means $AER SBB going "  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1806020361253003448)  2024-06-26T17:43Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@FishtownCap @ShafronTom @puppyeh1 What about $AL TBV is 0.8x so still opportunity to juice ROE. Lower aircraft deliveries = more cash flow. Mgmt can announce major SBB to close gap with $AER (+50% gain). If not activists salivating at a chance to make them do it (Elliot ValueAct etc.)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1806021101618630933)  2024-06-26T17:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@christankerfund [--]. NMC dinging $RCM $0.50 due to ransomware hack a few months ago [--]. Strange that TCP-ASC hasn't filed a 13-D/A 🤔 [--]. If Q2 results are not good (due to hack) board's bargaining position is weak. No chance of a robust auction. Maybe better off accepting bird-in-hand"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1807973568094892443)  2024-07-02T03:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@SpecialSitsNews Today's price action seems strange. $RCM basically back to undisturbed price which either means 0% of deal or lower break price. Not sure either makes sense. Prob of NMC deal is much higher than 0% tho competitive auction is unlikely. TB may come back without Ascension"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1808229624532377858)  2024-07-02T20:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@JehoshaphatRsch NMC was discussing making a joint-bid for $RCM not buying out T/A shares. 13-D/A notes that NMC is not interested in a joint bid but that it would be happy to have T/A (and other strategic s/h) roll over their shares. NMC just wants to buy out "OPMI""  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1808251289882481079)  2024-07-02T21:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@TangibleValue Not sure why TB would block. They can simply rollover equity into NMC's deal if they want to keep it (as NMC has offered). If they want liquidity they can sell to NMC. If they think $RCM is worth a lot more now's the time to top NMC's offer"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1808692449214189968)  2024-07-04T02:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@TangibleValue The fact that NMC has been discussing the deal with TB and NMC decided to down bid to $13.25 makes me think that NMC knows TB wouldn't bid much more"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1808692719595725137)  2024-07-04T02:42Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@puppyeh1 $TH board prolly waiting until announcement of a big ass contract (expected 2H) to increase leverage. Also not in a hurry given Biden implosion. If I were TDR I'd just offer bigger premium to wrap it up. Even at $12 it's a steal given FCF profile"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1811755481284616442)  2024-07-12T13:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@danban__ $FPH. Small float and illiquid but I think big upside from continued demand for land from public homebuilders in land-constrained So Cal. $/acre jumping. New CEO [--] yrs ago cut SG&A and increased comm land sales. CEO now taking about asset-lite strategy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1815590733602083261)  2024-07-23T03:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@capitalemployed $FPH SoCal land prices popping and demand from homebuilders strong (esp. publics). CEO has cut SG&A and pushed out debt maturity (& repaid $100 MM). Built cash by $200 MM in [----] and another $50 MM in [----]. Largest shareholder ( $LEN) may sell or spin out (catalyst)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1816300563018989988)  2024-07-25T02:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@LionelHutz_Esq Pincus is supposed to conclude the sale agreement and announce results by month end. Have there been any announcement that changes that timeline 🤞🤞🤞"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1817968459126550794)  2024-07-29T17:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@JonLitt @JonLitt letter included channel checks that indicated bidders ready to offer $6/share for $SMRT. As the dominant PropTech co in multi-family that figure sounds about right. If there were bidders waiting in the wings now is the time to strike"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1818419531985174534)  2024-07-30T22:52Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@JonLitt Indeed $SMRT board already working with Morgan Stanley on "financial review focusing on shareholder value" which sure sounds like a sale is not only on the table but likely. https://investors.smartrent.com/news/news-details/2024/SmartRent-Announces-CEO-Transition-Plan/default.aspx https://investors.smartrent.com/news/news-details/2024/SmartRent-Announces-CEO-Transition-Plan/default.aspx"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1818419969132019721)  2024-07-30T22:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@JonLitt Link to @JonLitt letter to the board https://landandbuildings.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/LandB-SMRT-Press-Release-5-14-24.pdf https://landandbuildings.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/LandB-SMRT-Press-Release-5-14-24.pdf"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1818420783607112144)  2024-07-30T22:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@LionelHutz_Esq @JaLeZaSu FWIW Reuters says credit bid is worth $9 billion (including $GDRZF) and CVR cash bid is worth $8 billion. https://www.reuters.com/legal/citgo-auction-pits-icahn-backed-oil-refiner-creditor-group-2024-08-02/ https://www.reuters.com/legal/citgo-auction-pits-icahn-backed-oil-refiner-creditor-group-2024-08-02/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1819574019638616524)  2024-08-03T03:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@puppyeh1 Or a strategic like other leasing companies. E.g. Saudis have been trying to scale up a leasing "national champion" but having trouble due to lack of aircraft availability. $AL trading below book PLUS massive order book may prove too irresistible to our Arabian friends"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1819939298507927771)  2024-08-04T03:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@acidinvestments Working pretty well with $FIS so far though I'd describe it as a slow climb as opposed to a surge"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1823538171075760558)  2024-08-14T01:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@puppyeh1 $RCM was in the "soft" category until it paid off. $TH soon. 🤞🚀🚀🚀"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1824429644705050795)  2024-08-16T12:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@puppyeh1 It's a risk but I think manageable. Fraud allegations against Kahn not $RILY or CEO. And Kahn fraud allegations not about $RILY or FRC but another entity. MBO letter hints at 3rd party equity partners which lowers CEO fraud risk"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1824450717828231408)  2024-08-16T14:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$LQDA is -37% in premarket trading because FDA held-off final approval for Yutrepia until May '25. Feels like an overreaction. Disappointing sure but [--] months of cash burn isn't worth $400 MM MC. Meanwhile $UTHR MC is +$1.2 bil. So much for efficient markets. 🤷♂"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1825514191446245494)  2024-08-19T12:44Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Increased starter position to half position at around $9. $LQDA may need to do a cap raise to bridge them for [--] months. Potential dilution but should not be too dilutive since it has line-of-sight to rev in May '25"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1825519814145663449)  2024-08-19T13:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Additional risk that $UTHR may try new delaying tactics over next [--] months. But they are now grasping at straws. Appeal to Supreme Court seems far fetched. $UTHR (supposed "public benefit corp") grip on treprostinil market seems numbered"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1825520699311825171)  2024-08-19T13:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Meanwhile people suffering from PAH and PH-ILD will be denied superior treatment for [--] months that may prolong their life. How many additional memories could they make with their families if $LQDA were allowed to sell their product now Such a travesty"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1825521927982633221)  2024-08-19T13:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$RILY back to where it was before CEO's $7 MBO which says that market is assigning 0% probability. Sounds irrational. I think some sort of deal is far more likely. (1/x)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1825580195040104856)  2024-08-19T17:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$RILY hired Moelis to market some financial advisory assets (appraisal & liquidation biz) for sale nearly [--] months ago. Deal announcement could come any moment now. Those biz generated EBIT of $35 MM. Growing cap-lite biz like that should generate robust multiple"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1825580825561194816)  2024-08-19T17:09Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"But this is a fire sale so let's assume 10x to 12x EBIT. That should generate $350 MM or 2x $RILY's market cap. Sure proceeds will be used for deleveraging not shareholder return. But the fact that a small portion of $RILY can generate such proceeds should garner attention"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1825581462898217133)  2024-08-19T17:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Bloomberg is reporting that Oaktree is nearing a deal to buy majority stake in these assets at $380 MM valuation which is close to what I estimated. Now maybe market can see that $RILY should be worth far more than $7 a share ($210 MM market cap)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1826290425230934219)  2024-08-21T16:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$RILY will reportedly get $190 MM for 51% of these assets which make up a small portion of $RILY franchise (asset generate EBIT of $35 MM). $RILY total market cap as I type this is $190 MM. $7 is WAY TOO LOW. Indy board should be able to get more from CEO's MBO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1826291503851086254)  2024-08-21T16:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"But $GOGO is due to launch its Galileo HDX next quarter and FDX soon thereafter. They are superior products especially for small/mid sized biz jets. $GOGO has the benefit of incumbency to roll it out thru aviation service partners"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1827026616049860640)  2024-08-23T16:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Once installed $GOGO should get [--] yrs worth of high-margin service revenue. That sort of low-churn revenue stream should get bigly multiple. [----] FCF guide is $150 MM and MC is $975 MM so 6.5x. Seems too cheap"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1827027606966808889)  2024-08-23T16:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Mr_Neutral_Man Industry rags say Brickell property got bids from $500 MM to low $600 MM. Prime property for redevelopment since Citadel HQ will break ground [----]. Those Wall Street fancy boys will pay up big $ to live in shiny new condos a block away"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1828513124565028911)  2024-08-27T19:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Mr_Neutral_Man Also $AIV probably trades too low because it's a REIT that doesn't pay regular dividends. Lack of natural investor constituency. If it pays big special div post Brickell sale maybe it opens 👀"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1828513967892828524)  2024-08-27T19:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Mr_Neutral_Man Elliott close to buying for $450 MM ($650 PSF) an office tower next to $AIV asset for sale. This would be a solid comp and supports $AIV Brickell asset valuation of $600 MM. Once sale is executed (4Q '24) $AIV in position for a massive distribution. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-24/elliott-nears-deal-to-buy-miami-office-tower-for-450-millionsrnd=homepage-americas https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-24/elliott-nears-deal-to-buy-miami-office-tower-for-450-millionsrnd=homepage-americas"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1838756583741768190)  2024-09-25T01:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@acidinvestments $TH mgmt probably waits until Nov contract extension before boosting stock buyback. But their constant reference to "inorganic growth" makes me wonder if stock BB not forthcoming. Can't imagine BB not the best risk-adj opportunity at this level"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1838936841505873974)  2024-09-25T13:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@puppyeh1 Re your #2 may just reflect the fact that TDR has a history of unsuccessfully making offers buyout minority $TH s/h on the cheap. I think this might be their 3rd try"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1838950271025566069)  2024-09-25T14:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Elliott won Citgo for $7.28 billion #RMLFF #GDRZF https://news.bloomberglaw.com/bankruptcy-law/elliott-affiliate-wins-citgo-auction-with-7-28-billion-bid https://news.bloomberglaw.com/bankruptcy-law/elliott-affiliate-wins-citgo-auction-with-7-28-billion-bid"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1839753375019069447)  2024-09-27T19:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@acidinvestments Day [--] of TDR not filing amended 13D for $TH 🤔"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1840964929752293509)  2024-10-01T04:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Initiated a starting short position on $PRKS. Market seems too complacent about Hurricane Milton. [--] of $PRKS theme parks (Busch Gardens Tamp Bay & SeaWorld Orlando) directly in Milton's path. (1/x)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1844035117095977062)  2024-10-09T15:20Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Main risk is that traffic craters for a multi-quarter period. Unlike destination theme parks $PRKS draws substantial traffic from regional area. Tampa and Orlando families not likely to be going to theme parks for a while"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1844036104036753681)  2024-10-09T15:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Both Tampa and Orlando areas are facing potential wind [--] - [---] mph and "extreme" risk of flooding rain. $PRKS Busch Garden Tampa is not far from [--] ft storm surge. Residents in the area will have much to deal with and going to theme parks will be the last thing on their minds"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1844037018546008154)  2024-10-09T15:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Link to Bloomberg story showing Milton's path. $PRKS https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-atlantic-hurricane-season/milton/srnd=homepage-americas https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-atlantic-hurricane-season/milton/srnd=homepage-americas"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1844037241284558941)  2024-10-09T15:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Risk to $PRKS short is that 4Q & 1Q are seasonal low quarters so hit to EBITDA on LTM basis not big. But will regional demand bounce back in time for 2Q & 3Q. Not sure but I think the risk is bigger than what's priced in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1844037767032148253)  2024-10-09T15:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Average cost of short position a bit below $49"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1844038482429366376)  2024-10-09T15:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"How important are Tampa and Orlando parks for $PRKS I'm not aware of disclosures on [--] parks' revenue and EBITDA contribution. However those [--] parks represent 53% of total animal habitats and 35% of total rides. So very very material for $PRKS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1844040859421196453)  2024-10-09T15:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"We are likely to see weeks' worth of press coverage on the devastation. Even though 4Q is seasonal low negative coverage will impact $PRKS pre-sales as families plan for next year's vacation in coming months"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1844041806209765872)  2024-10-09T15:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Against all of that $PRKS current $49 price is not far from 12-month average (and post-COVID average). Left tail risk is not priced in IMO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1844042629358723308)  2024-10-09T15:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$AIV announced new asset sales while we wait for Brickell sale. Sold the Hamilton & [----] Biscayne for $204 MM. After repaying high-cost debt worth $110 MM $90 MM of cap return in 1Q '25 (7%). Once Brickell sale is done expect much bigger cap return. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/aimco-agrees-to-sell-its-interests-in-two-investments-in-the-edgewater-neighborhood-of-miami-302272063.html https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/aimco-agrees-to-sell-its-interests-in-two-investments-in-the-edgewater-neighborhood-of-miami-302272063.html"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1844375045851971713)  2024-10-10T13:50Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Too early for accurate damage assessment on $PRKS short but risk modelers have been reducing insured loss est from "catastrophic" to "bad." Do I wait until Nov [--] earnings to cover my short Not sure. Mgmt will prolly say "no physical damage" but too early for future demand est"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1844380214547316886)  2024-10-10T14:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@AggieCapitalist Generally $PRKS traffic is resilient. However Tampa has not had a direct hurricane hit in [---] yrs so no historical precedent. Orlando has taken some hits after hurricane weakens post land fall"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1844478028648415609)  2024-10-10T20:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@AggieCapitalist But my broader thesis is not market was pricing in near 0% left tail risk and I thought it was materially higher (tho still 50%). Asymmetric outcome since if I'm wrong $PRKS unchanged but if I'm right maybe -10% or more"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1844478690039824662)  2024-10-10T20:42Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@AggieCapitalist Street estimate for $PRKS 4Q is stale. Unchanged since Helene and Milton. Closer to earnings maybe estimates get lowered. Current 4Q est EPS has 30% growth yoy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1844479476798980507)  2024-10-10T20:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@AggieCapitalist But it's fair to say that my extreme left tail risk for $PRKS did not materialize after Milton shifted towards Sarasota. Still think there is earnings/guidance risk"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1844480171275096119)  2024-10-10T20:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"More delays for Citgo sale 😩 #RMLFF #GDRZF https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/citgo-auction-creditors-assail-elliott-bid-seek-rival-offers-2024-10-21/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/citgo-auction-creditors-assail-elliott-bid-seek-rival-offers-2024-10-21/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1848365999994597612)  2024-10-21T14:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@ragingbullcap Upcoming asset sale could be the next catalyst for $CLPR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1852191414689333487)  2024-11-01T03:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@ragingbullcap $CLPR down more than -5% today. Bizarre reaction. 🫠🫠"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1852374129938251867)  2024-11-01T15:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@viggenmikke @ragingbullcap I mostly agree with your sentiment. I think the direction of the move is understandable since $CLPR is highly levered (albeit nonrecourse) and the 10-yr was up dramatically Friday. But a -10% move when other apartment REITs were -2% just don't seem right. 🤔"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1853256848306319477)  2024-11-04T02:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Decent $GOGO earnings today but you don't get a stock move like today (+35% so far) without panic short covering. Despite the huge rally MC is only $1.1 billion or 7.5x [----] FCF. And that FCF is long-tailed and growing. FV should be something 10x FCF"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1853844108755808728)  2024-11-05T16:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Is it 13x FCF 17x FCF Reasonable people can disagree. But 7.5x FCF for durable subscription based FCF for $GOGO is not reasonable. Investors have discounted $GOGO for too long due to execution mishaps but that looks to be behind us. HDX launch imminent. Onwards and upwards"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1853845304849633402)  2024-11-05T17:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Another disasterous Q for $SMRT. This board has presided over 85% decline in equity value and $SMRT has lost the right to remain public. Customers love the service but are leery about co given low stock price. Time for @JonLitt or others to shake up this ineffective board"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1854271759882547384)  2024-11-06T21:16Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@JonLitt Instead of announcing $10 MM "strategic investment" BoD should use the opportunity of empty CEO seat to launch sale of $SMRT. @JonLitt channel check suggested bidders would pay $6 or 3.6x current stock price. What is the board waiting for"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1854272630490104059)  2024-11-06T21:20Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@JonLitt If BoD actually believed their standalone plan to achieve $6 we would see board members & mgmt buying $SMRT at $2 for their PA. Sadly not much of that demonstrating their lack of confidence in standalone plan"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1854273794723987607)  2024-11-06T21:24Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ragingbullcap I think $CLPR high LTV makes many investors recoil & they don't realize debt is non-recourse. Hopefully upcoming asset sales highlights inherent value of NYC apartment RE & investors start doing SOTP analysis. Also Flatbush worth more given new agreement with NYC"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1854373317295169683)  2024-11-07T04:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@kingdomcapadv @UpslopeCapital @HatfieldCapital Like the ammo biz but kitchen appliances look set to take a hit from China tariffs no"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1854375798607933537)  2024-11-07T04:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"$PRKS materially misses 3Q and effectively reduced [----] guidance but stock is +3% right now. Outright shorting is hard. 🤢☠"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1854561325822640520)  2024-11-07T16:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$PRKS ended the day -3% which makes more sense 🤩"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1854673063255691332)  2024-11-07T23:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Anyone have a good view on why $TH (+9%) is lagging $GEO (+64%) so badly post election Arguably Trump win is better for $TH than $GEO given their massive spare capacity at Dilley TX. (1/n)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1854920838157385993)  2024-11-08T16:16Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Also $TH potentially could win massive new contract that (I believe is scheduled for 4Q). There is also a sponsor (owns 65%) that's been hanging around the hoop. Sponsor made a bid and was unsuccessful but did not formerly withdraw their bid. Maybe we waiting for election"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1854921487993487497)  2024-11-08T16:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Is $TH a shitco compared to $GEO Sure but that was already reflected in relative valuation pre-election. If $GEO is worth bigly valuation post-election it follows that $TH should also get a boost. Typically shitcos get a bigger boost when industry valuation rises"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1854922088814895290)  2024-11-08T16:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Maybe investors are too gun-shy after $TH burned them during the TDR (sponsor) LBO drama a few months ago I suspect this is the primary reason. If so I think $TH represents an opportunity but I'd love to hear what Fintwit thinks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1854922622821154972)  2024-11-08T16:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@wolfowlvi My guess is that $GEO is up so much because Trump's proposed policy of detention & deportation may increase demand for detention capacity (and not because market thinks federal prison population will increase). If so $TH should also benefit if not more so since"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1855385468591812761)  2024-11-09T23:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@wolfowlvi $TH has a big empty facility located near TX border and one that was used to detain migrants. Operating leverage from filling that facility should be YUGE"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1855386402558542063)  2024-11-09T23:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@jazz4tune $TH contract at Dilley was terminated under Biden admin. If Trump wants mass deportation something like the Dilley facility might come in handy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1855386874216407400)  2024-11-09T23:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@TylerDurdon9 @wolfowlvi I don't think $GEO is +64% post-election because higher RE value or GPS tracking. E.g. ICE's ATD (alt to detention program) is already using tracking. Unless Trump is going to put [--] trackers/person it wouldn't increase demand. https://trac.syr.edu/immigration/quickfacts/detention.html https://trac.syr.edu/immigration/quickfacts/detention.html"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1855602904733720688)  2024-11-10T13:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@TylerDurdon9 @wolfowlvi One bull case for $GEO that explains YUGE post-election rally is increased detention & transportation under Trump. If so $TH should also benefit from that (if not more than $GEO due to Op leverage). But $TH is only +9% vs $GEO's +64% which doesn't make sense 🤔"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1855603614141595970)  2024-11-10T13:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$TH: I missed this bit from the WSJ "Any deportation effort requires enormous resources to hire more federal agents to identify and arrest immigrants contract out space to detain them and procure airplanes to fly them to other countries." https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/trump-mass-deportation-immigrants-plan-348eaa91mod=djem10point https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/trump-mass-deportation-immigrants-plan-348eaa91mod=djem10point"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1856010163028636127)  2024-11-11T16:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Topped up $GOGO today at $8/share. Market still seems skeptical despite the fact that execution issues with LEO are behind them & HDX will launch imminently amid "unprecedented" demand from customers. Looking forward to HDX in 4Q and FDX & 5G in 1H [----]. 🛫🛰"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1856082290373255410)  2024-11-11T21:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$TH reported strong 3Q beat. Actual EPS $0.20 vs $0.12 estimate. Mgmt still expects renewal of Pecos contract in coming weeks (expected since this facility serves unaccompanied minors and gov't must do so under the law). Let's see what they says about upcoming 4Q contract.🤞"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1856308850606866809)  2024-11-12T12:11Z [---] followers, 12.5K engagements


"@puppyeh1 $TH stock BB pace a bit disappointing but maybe mgmt being cautious ahead of Pecos renewal. And BB pace will probably pick up materially after zeroing out debt by YE. Also not clear how much capex will be needed for new contract so maybe saving firepower until it is known"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1856324532329459733)  2024-11-12T13:13Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Positives & negatives on $TH's 3Q call. Pos are new mgmt commentary that $TH have opened dialog with "Republican representatives" regarding need for capacity in S. Texas (Dilley). So thesis that $TH should benefit as much as $GEO still intact"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1856342336743022849)  2024-11-12T14:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"On the other hand $TH mgmt said update on new contract likely delayed until [----]. Also margins might dip a bit to "keep Dilley warm." In hindsight not surprising that contract might be delayed. Also hit to margin is temporary and well worth it given optionality"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1856342945936343392)  2024-11-12T14:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$TH: Stephen Miller new dep chief of staff and Trump's man for Trump's immigration policy gave a NYT interview year ago where he described building "vast holding facilities" for detention prior to deportation "on open land in TX near the border." Description fits Dilley to a T"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1856394078013010238)  2024-11-12T17:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$TH: Link to NYT article from last year https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/11/us/politics/trump-2025-immigration-agenda.html https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/11/us/politics/trump-2025-immigration-agenda.html"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1856394199807000612)  2024-11-12T17:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$LQDA: Motion for summary judgment on Yutrepia scheduled for Dec [--]. Given holiday schedule decision probably early '25. Hard to assign probability but stock ($10.63) reflects low % so it's a free option. If $LQDA wins ready to launch immediately for PAH against $UTHR Tyvaso"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1856702048093286603)  2024-11-13T14:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Feels like market is sleeping on $LQDA upside. Litigation has been going on for years so early investors probably exhausted. But we are so close Even without summ jud $LQDA will launch for PAH no later than May '25 and probably for PH-ILD as well"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1856702719894999147)  2024-11-13T14:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"All early indications are that patients can tolerate higher dosage of $LQDA Yutrepia and prolong their lives vs $UTHR Tyvaso. Yutrepia should quickly gain market share. $LQDA salesforce is ready to charge"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1856705541420019729)  2024-11-13T14:27Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@svix_enjoyoor I think you have it backwards. $LQDA defeated all $UTHR patent claims for PAH and is free to launch Yutrepia for PAH no later than May '25. For PH-ILD $LQDA will face $UTHR at June '25 trial but preliminary injunction was denied so $LQDA can launch PH-ILD if it chooses to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1856712034315857923)  2024-11-13T14:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Fidelity has sold [---] million shares of $CLPR recently which is [--] days of avr daily volume. Was wondering who's been hitting $CLPR bids relentlessly over the past few weeks. Good news (for longs) is that FMR is down to 28K shares now. https://s3.amazonaws.com/sec.irpass.cc/2514/0000315066-24-002697.pdf https://s3.amazonaws.com/sec.irpass.cc/2514/0000315066-24-002697.pdf"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1857805744134873597)  2024-11-16T15:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$TH Pecos contract extended albeit at a slightly lower minimum annual revenue (from $178 MM to $168 MM). But $TH can still get higher variable rev based on occupancy which is excluded from mgmt guidance. Now looking forward to new contract award in 1H https://investors.targethospitality.com/news/news-details/2024/Target-Hospitality-Announces-Pecos-Childrens-Center-Contract-Extension-Reaffirms-2024-Financial-Outlook-and-Enhances-Strategic-Capabilities/default.aspx"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1858499191942652402)  2024-11-18T13:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"In the contract renewal announcement $TH notes that it has hired the former chief of Border Patrol under the Trump admin. She was awarded the Presidential Rank award so probably left on good terms. $TH looks well positioned to win long-awaited contract in 1H '25"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1858502819080245393)  2024-11-18T13:29Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Here's my back-of-napkin est for $TH in '25. EBITDA should be $153 MM ex-Dilley & Pecos renewal. CapEx $28 MM (unchanged from '24) and cash tax $20 MM. Interest goes to [--] since $TH will repay with cash on hand. That means '25 FCF is $105 MM"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1858887750604206239)  2024-11-19T14:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"At current price ($8.15) $TH MC is $800 MM so FCF yield is 12% (7.7x FCF multiple). This does not include any upside from new contract that may come in 1H '25 nor any incremental biz from Trump admin. Seems too cheap"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1858888742364123354)  2024-11-19T15:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"What will $TH mgmt do with that FCF Barring growth CapEx for new contract (which would be YUGELY positive) they'll buyback stock. In '24 stock BB was $33 MM despite pause related to aborted LBO. $105 MM FCF buys [--] million shares. Why does that matter"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1858889731234283617)  2024-11-19T15:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Well $TH public float is only [--] million shares since TDR owns 65%. So if mgmt buys back shares at [--] million pace they could BB all public shares in [---] yrs. Will that happen Not exactly since it assumes $TH stock remains at $8.15. But it shows how cheap $TH is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1858890370370736444)  2024-11-19T15:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"So if $TH mgmt funnels FCF to stock BB [--] of [--] things will happen. Either they can buy all public shares by mid-2027 (i.e. TDR essentially does LBO without paying premium which is unlikely) or $TH shares reprice much higher than $8.15"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1858891113140031594)  2024-11-19T15:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Again this assumes no incremental win for $TH. If Trump admin's immigration plans result in new contract for Dilley or elsewhere FCF should be much higher than $105 MM/yr and stock price should reflect that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1858891621036593259)  2024-11-19T15:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Link to the article https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/18/us/politics/trump-military-mass-deportation.htmlcampaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20241119&instance_id=139999&nl=the-morning®i_id=12464746&segment_id=183536&user_id=981d8a455d52367bdc745dcb936d3f42 https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/18/us/politics/trump-military-mass-deportation.htmlcampaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20241119&instance_id=139999&nl=the-morning®i_id=12464746&segment_id=183536&user_id=981d8a455d52367bdc745dcb936d3f42"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1858928137293455869)  2024-11-19T17:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@bullsbayretail $CLPR has been selling off for weeks prior to the 8-K so hard to attribute all weakness there. It's likely a combo of 8-K higher [--] yr Fidelity's massive selling (which sell side now is heavy with) and lack of asset sale announcement with 3Q earnings my guess"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1859075334311698461)  2024-11-20T03:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@bullsbayretail I usually don't double down for risk mgmt purposes not withstanding $CLPR's cheapness on SoTP basis. Especially since stock is so illiquid and I'm not certain that the controlling family's incentives are 100% aligned with shareholders. As for Fidelity 🤷"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1859330432166162498)  2024-11-20T20:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Started a new position on $NPK at $76/share. Thesis is simple: $NPK earnings should inflect starting 2Q '25 and could double by YE '26. This is the second idea I've stolen from @kingdomcapadv. Give him a follow if you want great ideas.💡 (1/n)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1859335596688240919)  2024-11-20T20:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@kingdomcapadv I was first exposed to $NPK many yrs ago when Buffett gave the CEO (Mary Jo Cohen) a shoutout as one of the greatest cap allocators. She runs the co debt-free and essentially pays out all earnings as dividends. In [--] yrs TR of 500%. Kicked S&P's ass until the recent AI euphoria"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1859337008952254889)  2024-11-20T20:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"But I didn't see a catalyst at the time so I moved on. Until @kingdomcapadv brought it again to my attention. $NPK has [--] segments but only [--] matters for my thesis: defense which makes among other things [--] mm ammo. For CoD fans this is the ammo for the grenade launcher"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1859337926892572938)  2024-11-20T20:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@kingdomcapadv Here is what defense seg's backlog looked like: 2021: $461 MM 2022: $505 MM 2023: $564 MM Steady growth but nothing remarkable. But then a plot twist. [----] 1Q: $693 MM [----] 2Q: $935 MM [----] 3Q: $1129 MM Backlog normally takes 18-24 months"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1859338928177705401)  2024-11-20T20:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Based on $NPK contract announcements I believe revenue will begin to inflect 2Q '25 and build rapidly from there. Since backlog essentially doubled from [----] to 3Q '24 not unreasonable to expect defense rev to double. Even if GM stable (21%) earnings should 🚀"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1859339592538661037)  2024-11-20T20:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Let's do some napkin math. $NPK defense rev '23 was $242 MM so let's say it goes to $484 MM. Incremental GM on that extra rev at 21% is $51 MM. N/I impact is $40 MM. [----] N/I was $35 MM (EPS $4.86) so this should more than double EPS ($10.50)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1859341928111779957)  2024-11-20T21:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"What will $NPK do with that flood of cash If Maryjo does what she's always done probably pay nearly all of it in dividends. At my avr cost of $76 that's yield of 14%. Next we have to consider whether this is a one time bump or the normal going forward"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1859342571807572097)  2024-11-20T21:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"No surprise I'm betting that this higher defense revenue for $NPK is closer to the new norm than a flash in the pan. Why Ukraine war has opened Pentagon's eyes to the depleted defense infrastructure"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1859343266354954566)  2024-11-20T21:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Pentagon realized that (1) soldier go thru far more ammo during war than expected and (2) current US ammo capacity cannot keep up with war time demand. This article mentions Army "is now conducting 'an ammunitions industrial base deep dive'" https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-war-depleting-u-s-ammunition-stockpiles-sparking-pentagon-concern-11661792188 https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-war-depleting-u-s-ammunition-stockpiles-sparking-pentagon-concern-11661792188"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1859343953260069088)  2024-11-20T21:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Article was written in 1H '22. Army began to ramp up [--] mm ammo orders to $NPK in '23 and backlog started growing massively in '24. The best part $NPK is the sole producer for the good ol' [--] mm ammo since they bought their competitor in 2013"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1859345067413999865)  2024-11-20T21:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Lastly how do I know that the CEO won't piss cash flow away First she has a history of good cap allocation (see Buffett praise) and variable dividend payment. No reason to think she'll change at her age (70 yrs) Second interest are aligned since she owns 25% of $NPK"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1859345986457342177)  2024-11-20T21:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"One thing of concern is $NPK's Safety segment. It's described as a "startup" which means it loses money. It's small and its losses are already reflected in '23 EPS so EPS doubling by '26 is not threatened by Safety unless it loses beaucoup money by then"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1859346645168926794)  2024-11-20T21:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Sounds like Judge Stark plans do-over for Citgo auction. First time around Elliott strong-armed SM Pincus into closing the dataroom to other bidders so that its conditional low-ball bid would "win." Judge Stark ain't having it. #RMLFF #GDRZF 😤 https://www.reuters.com/legal/us-judge-proposes-reorganize-stalled-citgo-share-auction-2024-11-20/ https://www.reuters.com/legal/us-judge-proposes-reorganize-stalled-citgo-share-auction-2024-11-20/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1859438227062481362)  2024-11-21T03:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@puppyeh1 Day [--] post announcement and the stock is still trading at low-$0.30s. Looks like good value here but suspicious that the market knows something I don't. Maybe market assuming high contingent costs and some tax leakage Mgmt not clear on return of capital intention"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1859709230334476541)  2024-11-21T21:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Zerosumgame33 $VATE mgmt hinted at monetizing non-cash flow assets in 2H '24 a few quarters ago. Disappointed that nothing was announced on 3Q earnings but hopefully something soon. Mgmt put out a press release touting R2's explosive growth so probably that is being primed for sale"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1859774066120626235)  2024-11-22T01:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"I'm gonna lay out my thesis for a European stock in honor of my newest follower (@CapitalObserver). He sounds like a long-suffering value investor (like me) so we can commiserate about our lagging perf. The stock is $IWG. It's cheap and I think there are [--] catalysts. (1/x)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1860735292006678978)  2024-11-24T17:20Z [---] followers, 22.9K engagements


"$IWG is basically a WeWork that makes money. Listed in the UK (maybe not for long) it has many brands but most well known for Regus. Stock took a beating during Covid (3 GBP/share pre-Covid) to now [----] GBP. Is that fair I think not"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1860736271896723948)  2024-11-24T17:24Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"EBITDA was $500 MM pre-Covid. Mgmt expects to get back there by YE [----]. On LTM basis $IWG is already there but it's complicated by the fact that reporting currency changed (I'll explain why that's important later)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1860737427469435288)  2024-11-24T17:29Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"But did $IWG take leverage up No. Leverage ratio has been coming down and is expected to reach pre-Covid level some time in 2025"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1860737851882713124)  2024-11-24T17:30Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"$IWG is cheap based on LTM performance. Its FCF (CFO - maint CapEx before WC) is $300 MM and $220 MM after growth CapEx. MC is $2.1 bil so FCF yield is 14% or 10% depending on which FCF you prefer. Pretty good I think. But it'll probably get better"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1860738691104170342)  2024-11-24T17:34Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"I think there are [--] near- to med-term catalysts. First dividends are about to get bigger. Mgmt is targeting lev at 1x which should be reached in [----]. Then CF will be split b/w debt and dividend. If 50% of CF to dividend then at least $110 MM dividend or $0.11 (5% yield)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1860739954533355975)  2024-11-24T17:39Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Catalyst [--] is change in CapEx. $IWG is undergoing massive change from CapEx-heavy to CapEx-lite. This is mainly due to pivot from company-owned offices to franchise model. Growth CapEx will be down 90% to $60 MM. Maint CapEx will be $100 MM"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1860741171170968028)  2024-11-24T17:44Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"This change in mix will transform $IWG from asset-heavy office landlord to a more diversified and less-risky co. Company-owned seg will remain but it'll be stable. Growth from franchise and app (called Worka) should dramatically increase ROIC and maybe multiple"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1860741989991387250)  2024-11-24T17:47Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"That leads me to catalyst 3: $IWG expects to take EBITDA from $500 MM to $1 bil over the "medium" term which I believe by YE [----]. Is that credible I'm pretty skeptical when I see hockey stick projections. But early indications are on track"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1860742511171387884)  2024-11-24T17:49Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"The bulk of the extra $500 MM EBITDA for $IWG will come from the new franchise seg. It is roughly breakeven now because it built overhead for future growth. The growth model relies on opening 125K rooms/yr $750K system rev at maturity and 13% franchise fee"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1860744015018090607)  2024-11-24T17:55Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Is that credible Not sure. $IWG is cheap without all this growth but an incredible bargain if it is able to achieve even 1/2 that growth. FWIW franchise is ramping up nicely. This is what # of new franchise rooms look like. '21: 10K '22: 15K '23: 37K 1H '24: 37K"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1860745401743147443)  2024-11-24T18:00Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"$IWG franchise pipeline looks pretty robust too (see below). I should mention that franchise room closure has been running 4K/yr but I think some closure to be expected of any franchise. Any ways here is pipeline at EOP: 1H '23: 100K 2H '23: 115K 1H'24: 151K"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1860746213139624436)  2024-11-24T18:04Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"I ran what FCF looks like at $500 MM EBITDA for $IWG. If I run that math at $1 bil EBITDA I think it's gonna sorta look like this"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1860746905199706118)  2024-11-24T18:06Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Catalyst [--] is a potential relisting from London to NYC. It's no surprise that Euro stocks are much cheaper vs US especially UK stocks (that's why I fish there). $IWG is a global biz so there is no reason it HAS to be listed in London"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1860747533334548729)  2024-11-24T18:09Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"$IWG mgmt has been methodically laying the groundwork for such a relisting. Functional currency has been switched from GBP to USD in [----]. Starting [----] $IWG will switch from IFRS to US GAAP. I'm not aware of any relisting announcement yet but maybe 2026"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1860748059530981617)  2024-11-24T18:11Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"If so $IWG will follow a long line of UK companies that has seen a big valuation pop post relisting (or UK companies that opted to IPO in US for much better valuation)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1860748481545044339)  2024-11-24T18:13Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"To wrap it up here is the thesis. $IWG is cheap based on LTM financials. On top of that there are [--] multiple rerating opps: boosting cap return becoming cap-lite ambitious growth targets and relisting to US"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1860748968889565332)  2024-11-24T18:14Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"$TH: Reuters reports that "deporting a million undocumented migrants annually will require the government to increase its detention capacity 20-fold" https://www.reuters.com/legal/trump-plan-use-military-deportations-should-stand-up-court-2024-11-26/utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=Newsletter&utm_campaign=Daily-Briefing&utm_term=112624&lctg=626fe264f698c2cb0208a97a https://www.reuters.com/legal/trump-plan-use-military-deportations-should-stand-up-court-2024-11-26/utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=Newsletter&utm_campaign=Daily-Briefing&utm_term=112624&lctg=626fe264f698c2cb0208a97a"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1861450715211718994)  2024-11-26T16:43Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@kingdomcapadv @WelfareCapLLC OMG I guess I'm not the only one. Their customer reps have the attitude of a recently-released convicts working at a DMV. I would have left $IBKR long ago if not for their algo orders and margin rates. 🫠🫠"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1861617874021818671)  2024-11-27T03:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Judge Stark's spanking worked. SM Pincus' new proposal to redo the Citgo auction. Relaunch auction Dec [--] accept bids until Mar [--] winner in Apr and confirmation hearing in May. #RMLFF #GDRZF https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/with-citgo-share-auction-shambles-us-court-readies-plan-start-over-2024-11-27/ https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/with-citgo-share-auction-shambles-us-court-readies-plan-start-over-2024-11-27/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1861965238959997130)  2024-11-28T02:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@ArturoGirb71906 Pg [--] of annual report EBITDA b/4 IFRS [--] is GBP [---]. Less finance cost of [--] tax of [--] maintenance CapEx [--]. Then I do calc for 1H '24. I exclude growth CapEx because I want steady state FCF. I also exclude WC because $IWG prepaid some leases in 1H '24 which makes it wonky"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1862122332786946554)  2024-11-28T13:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@a484t I exclude lease debt because $IWG's leases are either flexible (cancellable in [--] months) or non-recourse. Very different than say a retailer that signs 8-yr lease. By my def net debt down from GBP [---] in '22 to [---] in '23"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1862123147152998483)  2024-11-28T13:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@ArturoGirb71906 Bit tricky since 2H [----] is in GBP and 1H [----] in USD. 👍"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1862152210794090563)  2024-11-28T15:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@NoCheeseDerky @CapitalObserver WFH has been terrible for office building owners but it has been a tailwind for $IWG. Firms are moving from 10+ yr office leases in CBD to flexible options (like $IWG's short leases) in suburban locations closer to where employees live. In addition "  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1863567664066486539)  2024-12-02T12:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@NoCheeseDerky @CapitalObserver . owners of class-B offices are clients for $IWG's franchise model. They need to fill their empty space and are coming to $IWG to use their brands. Building owners put up capital to remodel their assets to $IWG's standard and pay 13% franchise fee"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1863568360274899138)  2024-12-02T12:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@valuedontlie $TH: Net debt at zero and rock bottom valuation with big potential FCF upside from Trump's immigration policies and plenty of spare capacity"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1863793600179347679)  2024-12-03T03:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"I believe $LQDA summary judgment hearing is today. In general bar for winning SJ is high but the FDA's action in favor of $UTHR was unprecedented & egregious so I think prob of winning is higher than average. If anyone has any color from courtroom let us know🤞"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1863944240503415122)  2024-12-03T13:51Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@ericnym @valuedontlie Saw his video and I respectfully disagree. His view is that facilities will not be used so will be terminated by Trump. My view is that facilities are much more likely to be utilized under Trump. He says that's possible but has a moral objection to that possibility"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1863992614946541854)  2024-12-03T17:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$TH: Senate Republicans looking to pass a bill within 30-day of Trump admin with "border-security money is the key priority" and "more capacity to hold the people." https://www.wsj.com/politics/senate-republicans-aim-to-tackle-border-first-taxes-later-98026ef8mod=hp_lead_pos4 https://www.wsj.com/politics/senate-republicans-aim-to-tackle-border-first-taxes-later-98026ef8mod=hp_lead_pos4"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1864119770137645546)  2024-12-04T01:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$GOGO down 9% y'day on news that Satcom CEO & CFO will replace existing mgmt. I think market thought co was at risk of announcing more cuts to guidance but this morning guidance was reiterated. $100 MM FCF on PF MC of $970 MM. 10% growth forecast. Still sounds cheap"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1864301922808697094)  2024-12-04T13:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Hunterbrook lays out the case against $UTHR nicely. $LQDA's summary judgment hearing is today. It's about time the court puts a stop to $UTHR's delay tactics for the benefit of long-suffering patients. https://hntrbrk.com/liquidia-trial/ https://hntrbrk.com/liquidia-trial/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1864720062076326048)  2024-12-05T17:14Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@Polarbeer11 CEO is the founder of $IWG and still owns about 25% of the company"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1865911990910099940)  2024-12-09T00:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$AHT announced it's switching stock listing from UK to US. I expect similar move from $IWG by [----] to boost its valuation. $IWG has already shifted its reporting currency to USD and will shift accounting to US GAAP in [----]. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-10/ashtead-to-move-primary-listing-to-us-in-fresh-blow-to-londonsrnd=phx-markets https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-10/ashtead-to-move-primary-listing-to-us-in-fresh-blow-to-londonsrnd=phx-markets"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1866455080511385764)  2024-12-10T12:09Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@Clownbuck Nov press release notes that the review included "a wider review across the Group to ascertain if similar issues to those identified in the South Division existed in other parts of the business." https://www.vistrygroup.co.uk/sites/vistrygroup/files/2024-11/vistry-group-trading-update-8-november-2024.pdf https://www.vistrygroup.co.uk/sites/vistrygroup/files/2024-11/vistry-group-trading-update-8-november-2024.pdf"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1868010143289651476)  2024-12-14T19:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"$CLPR ripping higher today. Anyone know what's going on 👀🚀"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1868671754513822154)  2024-12-16T14:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@jmail20201 That's a unique angle I hadn't thought about. I'm a bit skeptical because I think the only ETF that tracks that index is $KBWY and its MC is only $250 mil. I can't find index inclusion announcement. Do you have an estimate on how many shares moved based on this"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1868715115102793875)  2024-12-16T17:49Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"FT article discusses recent re-listing of public companies from UK to US and UK companies at risk of making the switch. $IWG isn't mentioned mainly because its market cap isn't big enough. But it remains a prime candidate. https://www.ft.com/content/aef053ce-c94d-4a72-8dce-bdbf56dd67e1 https://www.ft.com/content/aef053ce-c94d-4a72-8dce-bdbf56dd67e1"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1868761426774692329)  2024-12-16T20:53Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@Bprew7 @ive_m5 Couldn't Fidelity and Blackrock make their $GOGO shares available for shorting to earn borrow interest"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1877575176788808114)  2025-01-10T04:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@crowdturtle You are right $NLOP recourse debt down to even lower $61 MM. Thanks for the correction. I was distracted by Friday employment numbers. 🥴"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1877720365096489260)  2025-01-10T14:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$TH: Trump planning [---] "shock-and-awe" executive orders on inauguration day including "setting up immigration detention facilities where migrants could be housed until they are expelled." Sounds like $TH Dilley TX facility will be in demand. https://apnews.com/article/trump-day-one-border-executive-actions-30f78c3c983ae74555f281446fe22710 https://apnews.com/article/trump-day-one-border-executive-actions-30f78c3c983ae74555f281446fe22710"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1878621554231447946)  2025-01-13T01:54Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"$IWG: $CBRE buys Industrious at $800 MM valuation. This startup is a comp for $IWG's franchise segment tho comparison isn't perfect. Avr Industrious space is similar to WeWork while avr $IWG space is not as fancy. https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/commercial/giant-commercial-property-firm-goes-all-in-on-co-working-with-new-deal-f0b036femod=djemRealEstate_h https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/commercial/giant-commercial-property-firm-goes-all-in-on-co-working-with-new-deal-f0b036femod=djemRealEstate_h"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1879554599356629194)  2025-01-15T15:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Still $IWG market cap of $2 bil compares very favorably against Industrious' $800 MM. Industrious only has [---] locations. $IWG's franchise segment signed [---] franchise locations in '22 [---] in '23 & [---] in 1H '24. [----] locations total (owned & fran). $IWG worth $2 bil"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1879556946522730585)  2025-01-15T15:51Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@Zerosumgame33 Let's hope $VATE mgmt and Glazer family do the right thing and sell Medibeacon to a well-capitalized company with good distribution at a price close to your $700 MM estimate 🤞😬🤞"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1880458320303256022)  2025-01-18T03:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$NPK awarded another $126 MM contract from $BA in Jan '25. This is first new def contract since 3Q I'm aware of and def revenue running at $70 MM/quarter so this award keeps backlog stable from 3Q '24 to 1Q '25. https://www.gopresto.com/downloads/financial/pr/2025-01-23.pdf https://www.gopresto.com/downloads/financial/pr/2025-01-23.pdf"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1883925492354658606)  2025-01-27T17:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"(2/n) I'm just a healthcare tourist but here's my thesis on $CI. It's too cheap given LT track record of earnings growth & market is overreacting to 4Q earnings bump that'll resolve itself in [--] yrs. If price does not recover $CI will have firepower to buyback 15% of MC in '25"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1886119817591013748)  2025-02-02T18:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"For '25 $CI expects FCF of $8.6 bil. It'll get another $3.3 bil from sale of Medicaid biz (closing in 1Q) so combined $11.9 bil. MC (@ $280) is $78 bil so theoretically can BB 15% of stock outstanding. Current BB authorization is $10.3 bil"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1886120748659462607)  2025-02-02T18:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Over the LT $CI expects CF of $60 bil over [--] yrs. 25% of it will go to CapEx which leaves $45 bil for shareholder return. $9 bil / yr works out to 11.5% FCF yield which makes me feel all warm and fuzzy inside"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1886121534332297342)  2025-02-02T18:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"FWIW $CI mgmt expects LT earnings growth of 12% which is consistent with its [--] yr track record. 9x PE for company with demonstrated & continued growth sounds crazy cheap to me"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1886122186944975120)  2025-02-02T18:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Risk 1: $CI gets 30% from PBM which has become favorite punching bag of politicians & regulators. Could have regulatory air pocket. But how big is this risk really Everybody is complaining about PBMs gaming the system thru drug rebates. I think it's overblown"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1886123223051296879)  2025-02-02T18:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"US drugs are clearly overpriced. But who's responsible Well $CI's PBM seg has adj pre-tax margin of 3%. What about pharma Well $PFE's adj pre-tax margin is 30% on apples-to-apples basis. So while critics are whining about PBMs rebates pharma making out like bandits"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1886124193684631990)  2025-02-02T18:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"So what would happen if gov't bans PBM rebates Well I think PBMs already offer non-rebate product to its customers. In fact PBM industry is increasingly moving toward that model. Instead of rebates $CI will earn fee-for-service"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1886124655473262715)  2025-02-02T18:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Even if there is some margin pressure under non-rebate model $CI can handle it. So maybe FCF yield goes from 11.5% to 10% Still dirt cheap for company with 10% growth and without regulatory risk weighing down valuation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1886125130658504811)  2025-02-02T18:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Once the rebate issue is behind $CI we'll see who the true perpetrators of high drug prices are. It's pharma which charges sky-high prices to US customers while at the same time charging far lower prices to non-US customers"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1886125598835151079)  2025-02-02T18:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Risk 2: $CI's 4Q is not a temp bump and margins do not recover. Certainly possible but mgmt's explanation makes sense. Earnings shortfall caused by "stop loss" product when its med costs were higher than expected in 4Q"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1886126142756680124)  2025-02-02T18:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$CI stop loss product is priced annually. By the time mgmt saw higher med costs in 4Q many of its policies were renewed so co couldn't reprice premiums to account for it. Also it looks like repricing is subject to annual cap because mgmt expects fully margin recovery in [--] yrs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1886126773164749303)  2025-02-02T18:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"It's possible that $CI stop loss misses its med cost est again but doesn't seem likely to me. Mgmt got bitten once so I'd expect them to set bigger margin for error for policy renewal in '25 and '26"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1886127229282738367)  2025-02-02T18:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Risk 3: $CI does a dumb acquisition. My thesis is predicated on mgmt using $45 bil of FCF for capital return over the next [--] yrs. If the CEO goes on empire building adventure I'm out. $CI already tried to buy $HUM in '24 before talks fizzled"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1886128137538298001)  2025-02-02T19:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Another banger by @AndrewRangeley with @1MainCapital on $IWG. Highlights: [--]. $IWG at 7x '25 FCF which is consistent with my napkin math of 14% FCF yield [--]. On track for $1 bil EBITDA by '28 (from $500 MM) [--]. Builder owner survey show high satisfaction https://www.youtube.com/watchv=L5KzNCE4S1M https://www.youtube.com/watchv=L5KzNCE4S1M"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1886155420386889997)  2025-02-02T20:51Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Started a small new position at $15.30 in $OCSL which is a BDC managed by Oaktree. Good margin of safety with purchase price at 19% below PF BV and 12.3% PF dividend yield. I expect 12-month return in excess of 20%. (1/n)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1886896878085611854)  2025-02-04T21:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"The big risk is that $OCSL BV continues to erode due to defaults. That's always a risk with BDCs. It's mitigated by the fact that my cost is at a big discount to BV Oaktree has shown confidence with its $100 MM purchase at BV and new incentive fee structure"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1886901826899075382)  2025-02-04T22:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Cash_Flow_Cap At 9x earnings and 11.5% FCF yield $CI can miss their growth target and still be a good investment. If they can get close to their target it'll be a great investment"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1887143490489885029)  2025-02-05T14:17Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"My $FIS margin of safety is high. If multiple does not change I expect 12% return/yr (10% earnings+2% div). Not too shabby. But if PE multiple expands to say 17x by [----] CAGR should be 25%. I like my chances"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1892242262685307022)  2025-02-19T15:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Happy $NPK earnings and dividend announcement day tomorrow to all those who celebrate Let's hope MaryJo is feeling generous this year. 🤞😬🤞"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1892676584164745266)  2025-02-20T20:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$NPK reported strong growth with '24 EPS +20% yoy mainly due to Defense rev (+18%). But Def earnings only +12%. Also WC build for Def backlog will mean that $NPK will only pay $1 regular div and no special div. Probably means bigly growth in [--] but it still hurts. 😩"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1893054363666420089)  2025-02-21T21:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@spunazza $NPK could have just gotten a decent sized revolver for working capital needs like a normal company. 🤷♂ But I guess part of the reason why this opportunity exists is because $NPK is so unusual"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1893119504101593506)  2025-02-22T02:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$PRKS misses 4Q (as I expected) but stock still trading up. Mgmt has continued to blame weather for declining performance. When will investors see that weather-risks are part of the business and can't be PF'ed out Shorting is hard. 🤔"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1894771847452856369)  2025-02-26T15:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$PRKS 2023: Attendance -1.5% EBITDA -2.0% but mgmt "expects meaningful growth" in [----] 2024: Attendance -0.3% EBITDA -1.9% but mgmt "expects meaningful growth" in [----] It's like mgmt plans on no hurricanes in FL during summer to hit their growth guidance"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1894772853121126425)  2025-02-26T15:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Covered $PRKS short at $50.58 for a -3.7% loss. It's frustrating to be right about earnings and still lose money but MTM was as down as much as -24% at one point so I should count my blessings. Lesson learned: shorting is a hard way to make $"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1895129978074718530)  2025-02-27T15:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@puppyeh1 Wen $AL"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1895469777491316804)  2025-02-28T13:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$IWG reported [----] results. [--] of my catalysts are working out as expected and [--] is not. Stock down -8% so far. Let's review. # changed a bit because of the switch from GBP to USD. '24 EBITDA +11% ($557 MM) and '25E EBITDA +8% ($600 MM). EBITDA now materially above pre-Covid level"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1896936199526445384)  2025-03-04T14:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$IWG refi'ed debt stack and pushed out maturities to '29/'30 with new IG-rated bond/bank debt. Expects to reach lev target (1.0x) by '25 YE. Reduced debt by $63 MM (from $775 MM to $712 MM). All in all not bad. So why is the stock taking a 💩 Let's go thru [--] catalysts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/secretlyaninja/status/1896937641356263641)  2025-03-04T14:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

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