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# ![@nickgerli1 Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::1037021854198915072.png) @nickgerli1 Nick Gerli

Nick Gerli, a housing market analyst, is reporting that the US housing market is experiencing a significant slowdown. Home sales are at a 30-year low, and prices are dropping in XX% of states, with some areas seeing outright crashes. The market is shifting towards a disinflationary or deflationary trend, with rents also declining, which could lead to lower CPI in 2026.

### Engagements: XXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::1037021854198915072/interactions)
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### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[finance](/list/finance)  [countries](/list/countries) 

**Social topic influence**
[housing market](/topic/housing-market) #88, [longterm](/topic/longterm) #612, [mortgage rate](/topic/mortgage-rate) #60, [level](/topic/level), [belt](/topic/belt) #823, [for sale](/topic/for-sale) #1488, [deflation](/topic/deflation) #33, [sun](/topic/sun), [the first](/topic/the-first), [there will](/topic/there-will) #119
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours

"U.S. home value growth is entering recessionary territory in late 2025. With Zillow's value index growing by only XXX% over the last XX months. The previous times we've seen home value growth this low have mostly been associated with economic recessions. (like 2008 1991 1982 1973). This confirms the comments made earlier this week by Scott Bessent that the housing market is in fact in a recession. The question is: will national home values finally dip negative in 2026 and which cities will be the best places to buy next year To find out go to and sign up for premium to see our 12-month"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/1986183417759944979)  2025-11-05T21:26Z 141.7K followers, 32.5K engagements


"The U.S. Housing Market is about to get hit by a big demographic shift. By 2032 there will be more deaths than births in the U.S. This crossover point will be the continuation of a long-term trend over the last four decades and ultimately will have the following impacts: a) structurally lower homebuyer demand as declining births and family formation lowers the need and urgency for young people to buy houses b) more inventory as incrementally more deaths and the aging out of the Baby Boomer generation increases listings (Freddie Mac estimates X million homes by 2035). This will likely have a"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/1992453296779329730)  2025-11-23T04:40Z 141.7K followers, 154.5K engagements


"Pending home sales in October 2025 came in -XXX% below last year and -XX% below the long-term average. Today's contract signings are at the lowest level in 30+ years - even worse than the GFC - and showing no noticeable signs of improvement (even after X Fed rate cuts and a big spike in inventory) Suggesting there's major structural inertia in housing right now. The market is unaffordable overpriced and cheaper to rent - and as a result homebuyers are fundamentally disinterested. On top of that - many households are now delaying family formation and electing not to have kids which further"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/1993789241806213523)  2025-11-26T21:09Z 141.7K followers, 51.6K engagements


"10) Of course - not all areas of the U.S. Housing Market are overvalued. And not all areas will go down next year. Reventure has positive forecasts for roughly 1/2 of the U.S. right now and in some cities we think values could go up 5%+ based on the current trends in inventory price cuts and DOM. To find out where prices are forecast to go in your market next year sign up for Reventure Premium and unlock the data for your city and ZIP"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/1996683316687262086)  2025-12-04T20:49Z 141.7K followers, 4127 engagements


"Major relief for apartment rents is happening right now all across the Sun Belt. Median rents in a market like Dallas are down XX% from peak and the vacancy rate is now at its highest level on record. Other markets like Phoenix Austin Las Vegas and Nashville are showing a similar trend. Expect more rent cuts in 2026 as the pandemic supply pipeline still delivers units while renter demand remains subdued to lower immigration and a tough job market for college grads. Note: rents in a market like Dallas are still about XX% above pre-pandemic. But wages have grown since then so some of these"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/1997077804249169933)  2025-12-05T22:57Z 141.7K followers, 26.7K engagements


"4) In this way you can see how important rent growth is for determining the future of the for sale housing market. Declining rents puts pressure on investors to sell and will create distressed situations for investors who bought near peak prices especially after mortgage rates went up. Moreover - declining rents makes the decision much easier for renter households to stay renting. Which suppresses buyer demand"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/1997342591189242080)  2025-12-06T16:29Z 141.7K followers, 6252 engagements


"9) This is why focusing on the rental market will help you as a buyer or investor in 2026. A declining rental market is a strong suggestion that the for sale market will also decline in the future year given the dynamics of the mortgage rate lock-in effect and the calculus made by first-time buyers on buying v renting. Expect more inventory to hit the market for sale in areas where rents are declining and buyer demand to be suppressed in these areas even if rates drop. You can access the 12-month price forecast for your area which takes into account inventory DOM and price cut trends at"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/1997356386376688027)  2025-12-06T17:24Z 141.7K followers, 6980 engagements


"7) Reventure calculates the U.S. Housing Market as XX% overvalued right now compared to median income based on multiples going back the last two+ decades. What this means intuitively is that when Americans look on Zillow they think the prices look high relative to how much money they make. So long as this situation of overvaluation persists especially in the context of flat or declining rents buyer demand will stay muted"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/1997429298622595532)  2025-12-06T22:13Z 141.7K followers, 2887 engagements


"8) Some other things to think about in this equation on buyer/renter demand and home price/rent deflation is the following: -immigration (slowing potentially negative in 2025) -family formation/births (slowing near lowest on record) -job insecurity. (favors household consolidation less demand to rent and buy) All of these trends are pressing their thumb down on the housing market at once"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/1997430204843647438)  2025-12-06T22:17Z 141.7K followers, 2517 engagements


"3 of the top X cities for population growth in Q3 2025 were Midwest. #1 Indianapolis #2 Columbus #5 Cleveland We're in a new era for real estate. Midwest is the migration magnet and is undersupplied on construction. Comparatively previously hot Sun Belt markets like Dallas Atlanta Houston Tampa Orlando and Miami are now losing people. These areas are still oversupplied in construction. I wouldn't be surprised if we see several years of Midwest outperformance on price growth/rent growth and several more years of Sun Belt underperformance. Source: Bank of America internal account data"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/1998088323189891397)  2025-12-08T17:52Z 141.7K followers, 23.6K engagements


"1) The Trump administration is floating the idea of allowing 50-Year Mortgages. Should they do it Will it help the market Give me your thoughts below"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/1987915977015615689)  2025-11-10T16:11Z 141.6K followers, 6371 engagements


"4) You can see there is a strong negative correlation right now between homebuyer demand and cost to buy. The higher the cost to buy the more sales have slumped below the long-term average. Conversely the cheaper the cost to buy the more that sales have held (note West Virginia the cheapest state to buy a house where sales are up XX% from normal)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/1995272682422583471)  2025-11-30T23:24Z 141.6K followers, 7748 engagements


"5) Access data on mortgage cost metric home sales and price forecasts on Reventure App the #1 tool for helping homebuyers and investors understand the direction of the market. We think 2026 is going to be another year of Rust Belt outperformance. To see by how much upgrade to access our 1-year price forecast. There are some areas we think could go up 10%+"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/1995273129694736583)  2025-11-30T23:25Z 141.6K followers, 6499 engagements


"@FLUSAcom Home sales are literally at their lowest level on record. And are down XX% from pandemic peak. Definitely a collapse"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/1996679169607193004)  2025-12-04T20:33Z 141.6K followers, XXX engagements


"4) But will seller's bravado and confidence in their ability to "list next year at the same or higher price" wane Especially if job losses mount and more headlines show up like this:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/1996679874564722796)  2025-12-04T20:35Z 141.6K followers, 2099 engagements


"5) There's also the fundamental reality that a deteriorating labor market and increasing unemployment rate will likely increase mortgage distress. Going back the last XX years the correlation between mortgage defaults and unemployment is nearly 1:1. Higher unemployment will likely mean more defaults more forced selling and more foreclosures which could put downward pressure on price regardless of what happens with demand"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/1996680596660142412)  2025-12-04T20:38Z 141.6K followers, 1792 engagements


"8) Austin TX is next level. Apartment rents are down XX% from peak. And today's median rent of $1288/unit is now almost back to the same level as summer 2019. Vacancies are up to near 10%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/1997084762842804451)  2025-12-05T23:24Z 141.6K followers, 6166 engagements


"9) Here are the markets with the biggest rental corrections over the last 3+ years. You can see Austin laps the field at XX% rental drop. Fort Myers/Cape Coral is 19%. And then a mixture of CO AZ FL NC TX and GA market are all around a 10%+ rental correction or higher. The source of this data is median rents from Apartmentlist"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/1997089071265431805)  2025-12-05T23:41Z 141.6K followers, 4898 engagements


"4) This type of thing happened in the late 1970s/early 1980s. Rents were surging during this period of massive inflation which is what kept the buyer demand continually flooding into the housing market. Even at poor affordability levels. However today is not like the late 1970s/early 1980s. Rents instead of inflating are disinflating and even going negative in many markets"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/1997426420063056167)  2025-12-06T22:02Z 141.7K followers, 2464 engagements


"5) Which is of course great news for regular Americans. For the first time in a long time affordability is increasing. Especially in a market like Austin TX where rents have now dropped to pre-pandemic levels. Rents are down XX% in this market since peak while wages have kept growing. Now - it has become very affordable to rent in a market like Austin. A huge win for locals and those looking to move there"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/1997427094083494025)  2025-12-06T22:05Z 141.6K followers, 2795 engagements


"6) But this is bad news for home prices and incremental homebuyer demand. Cheaper rents means there is no real incentive to buy. Especially when the cost to buy is already 30-40% more expensive than the cost to rent on a monthly basis and when nominal prices are overvalued relative to income"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/1997427536507056384)  2025-12-06T22:06Z 141.7K followers, 2590 engagements


"8) Housing market bulls like to claim "well prices are still up nationally so there is no downturn thus housing is resilient". But that type of statement ignores the realities anyone who operates in the industry day to day is seeing. Record low demand. Falling rents. Rising vacancies and inventory. All of those trends are telling you the real story of what's happening. While prices like the labor market is the lagging indicator holding on for dear life"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/1996682069553172960)  2025-12-04T20:44Z 141.7K followers, 1921 engagements


"3) The likely solution at this point seems to be a slow grind down on the cost to buy through incremental cuts in prices and rates. This will bring more buyers out of the woodwork slowly. The thing that would bring lots of buyers out of the market quickly is if rents were going up fast. Because that greatly increase the financial incentive to purchase. (e.g. if you're thinking about buying and your landlord increases your renewal rent by XX% you'll start seriously looking to buy. Conversely if your landlord keeps your rents to same or cuts the rent you'll stay put)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/1997426061483688119)  2025-12-06T22:00Z 141.7K followers, 2625 engagements


"4) Some might say that this is just a "natural correction" in these markets after how much rents boomed during the pandemic - and that could be true. Many of the Sun Belt markets had unsustainable rent growth and some return down to earth was expected. However - it's rare for rents to ever go negative. So the fact that they are now on a national basis is a housing market deflation warning more broadly"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/1987996041459925489)  2025-11-10T21:29Z 141.7K followers, 6058 engagements


"5) And it's not just apartments. It's happening in single-family too. The largest publicly traded landlord in America Invitation Homes just reported negative new lease rent growth in Q3 2025. It was the first Q3 they've reported a negative print since they went public back in 2017"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/1987996676708008042)  2025-11-10T21:31Z 141.7K followers, 6586 engagements


"San Francisco is the strongest housing market in America right now. Home sales are XX% above the long-term average. While inventory is -XX% below the long-term average. The AI boom has flipped SF on its head and Reventure is now forecasting rising prices over the next XX months. (note: where you don't want to be on the graph above is in the top left. That's very low demand and very high supply)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/1995941473326391554)  2025-12-02T19:41Z 141.7K followers, 33.7K engagements


"7) The only thing holding the housing market "hostage" and preventing the sorely needed big price correction is sellers who have an unrealistic expectation on the value of their house. How long can these sellers hold out with the walls closing in from all directions Eventually their hand could be forced"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/1996681656342655008)  2025-12-04T20:42Z 141.7K followers, 1894 engagements


"9) One other chart that should make anyone in the housing market nervous is the long-term "Homeowner Equity to GDP" graph. We're at XXX% today. Meaning homeowners have more equity than the entire size of the US economy. What's the reason for that What's supporting that It isn't inventory rent growth or the labor market at this point. It's simply seller attitudes about they think their house is worth. A precarious "final line of defense" while the rest of the market fundamentals deteriorate"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/1996682844513427516)  2025-12-04T20:47Z 141.7K followers, 4827 engagements


"1) The other obvious conclusion from the graph above is that finding a way to drive down the cost to buy a house would help unlock the housing market. e.g. the closer the Mortgage Payment to Buy goes to Monthly Rent and Mortgage Cost for Current Owners the more home sale transactions will take place. As the financial incentive to move increases"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/1997424990916837473)  2025-12-06T21:56Z 141.7K followers, 3155 engagements


"2) But that's proving harder to do to than anticipated. The Fed has cut rates by XXXX% over the last year+ and there has been no meaningful decline in Mortgage Rates. Meanwhile - national prices are still at near a record high even if values are dropping in some markets"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/1997425296316756370)  2025-12-06T21:57Z 141.7K followers, 2833 engagements


"We ran the numbers and there's one metric that explains why home prices are dropping in certain cities and going up in others: Inventory Surplus The markets with the biggest inventory surplus (Dallas Tampa Austin) all have declining prices YoY. Meanwhile the markets where inventory is still in a deficit (bottom right) all have increasing prices. Look at Inventory Surplus/Deficit to predict where prices are heading in your area. This data point can be accessed under a premium plan at under our Market Trends section"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/1970864227951727052)  2025-09-24T14:53Z 141.6K followers, 105.9K engagements


"Austin TX home values are down XX% from peak and are nearly back to the market's "fair value". Back in 2022 values peaked around $539k. Now they're $428k. The "fair price" based on incomes is $411k (grey line). Austin still has some downside left but don't be surprised if its one of the first markets to rebound in 2026. Access our valuation metrics for your city and ZIP at"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/1983268086540067111)  2025-10-28T20:22Z 141.7K followers, 194.7K engagements


"Lots of discussion right now about if we're entering a recession and the recent bad jobs report. But remember - the housing market called this three years ago. Home sales collapsed in 2022/23 and have not recovered. The three other times we saw an extended period of home sale declines like this (early 1980s late 1980s mid-2000s) there was a labor market recession thereafter where employment growth contracted (within the 2nd to 4th year after the initial decline in sales). Thus far we have still avoided the labor market recession in this cycle and we're about to go into Year X of declining or"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/1996677126255530083)  2025-12-04T20:24Z 141.6K followers, 23K engagements


"Markets with the biggest rent deflation over the last X years: Austin: -XX% Fort Myers: -XX% CoSprings: -XX% Phoenix: -XX% Raleigh: -XX% San Antonio: -XX% Atlanta: -XX% Denver: -XX% Expect apartments rents in these markets to continue declining in 2026 as vacancy rates remain elevated. Good news for renters bad news for investors who bought near the peak"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/1997337704078446921)  2025-12-06T16:09Z 141.7K followers, 34.4K engagements


"3) In the case of this rental the profit will be only about $XXX per year for this owner with typical rental expense assumptions. It could be higher than that if the house sits vacant for longer than a month or if the tenants who take the property have numerous maintenance requests. In this case - the owner is likely thinking it's "worth it" to rent because they have a long-term view that the market is worth owning in. However the more individual owners that make this choice to rent their house instead of sell it the more it will drive down rent growth and turn rents negative. Which will harm"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/1997342055480135761)  2025-12-06T16:27Z 141.7K followers, 6469 engagements


"5) One reality of the increased rental inventory on the market and declining rents is that is has spared the for-sale housing market from a worse fate over the last 1-2 years. Owners like in the house above who would have normally been compelled to sell their house are renting it because of their cheap mortgage rate. However one has to wonder how long the for-sale market (which is also declining in many Sun Belt markets) will be spared from its impending fate"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/1997343023236034568)  2025-12-06T16:31Z 141.6K followers, 9648 engagements


"6) The mortgage rate "lock-in" effect which has suppressed inventory on the for sale market eases with each passing day and month. By the end of this year it's likely there will be more mortgage holders in America with a 6%+ rate than a sub-3% rate. Meaning more owners will feel the financial pressure to sell due to a higher mortgage payment"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/1997344249294012858)  2025-12-06T16:35Z 141.7K followers, 101.8K engagements


"8) But as downward pressure on rents increases it will cause more existing owners to be forced to sell instead of rent when they move. Think about the example of the house in Nashville above. But fast forward X years. The owner who bought the 2023 version of that house did so with a 6%+ mortgage rate and has a P&I payment close to $2000. And when they move they would lose around $6000 per year if they rented. Meaning they'll be more inclined to sell"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/1997350393597067670)  2025-12-06T17:00Z 141.7K followers, 9668 engagements


"Why has the housing market been frozen since 2022 Because the cost to buy a house with a mortgage (green) vaulted way above the a) cost to rent and b) the mortgage cost for existing owners. The net result is that few people have a financial incentive to move. Cheaper to stay renting cheaper to stay in current house/mortgage. But - one interesting trend we are beginning to notice is the mortgage payment for existing owners (orange) is now growing faster than rent. This is reversed from the post-pandemic period. Where sub-3% mortgages and still cheap taxes/insurance made for a very low cost to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/1997424665514463734)  2025-12-06T21:55Z 141.7K followers, 41.1K engagements


"11) The rental market is more complex. The demographic forces favor it immensely as lower family formation and births means more people will be renting structurally. The affordability calculus also says more people should be renting. However - the plunge in immigration and job insecurity are outweighing these factors right now. And causing vacancies to go up and rents to drop in many markets"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/1997433273266434252)  2025-12-06T22:29Z 141.7K followers, 5636 engagements


"12) If 2026 is another year with low immigration and continued job insecurity I think we could see outright deflation across the entire U.S. Housing Market both on for sale and rent side. Personally I think this would be a good thing as it would mean Americans would finally be receiving the affordable gains they've been looking for the last 4-5 years. However many in the housing industry might not like it. As it will likely mean more investors selling lower home prices lower rents and another year of low buyer demand. But it's probably what needs to happen to set the housing market up for a"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/1997434633160647019)  2025-12-06T22:35Z 141.7K followers, 5029 engagements


"The U.S. Housing Market is still extremely bifurcated. Roughly half the states in the U.S. are now trending above average on inventory with some areas like AZ TN TX UT CO experiencing an inventory explosion above pre-pandemic levels. (as much as a 30%+ surplus) Meanwhile the other half of states are still constrained on inventory. And in some cases there is a massive shortage like in IL NJ NY WI and MI. (inventory down 35-55% from 2019). Higher inventory levels are associated with home price declines and vice versa. So don't be surprised if we continue to see the Sun Belt/West Coast markets"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/1998196619724865886)  2025-12-09T01:02Z 141.7K followers, 24.2K engagements


"1) There are several metrics you can use to gauge how much reserve liquidity the Fed needs in the system for their "ample reserves" regime - one is GDP another is M2 but my personal favorite to gauge this is bank deposits. During the pandemic Excess Reserves (Bank Reserve + Reverse Repos) surged to XX% of all commercial bank deposits. This was the "free money" era with massive QE that created the 2021-22 inflation. Since then with operation of QT and general growth in the economy the excess reserve ratio deleveraged down from XX% to XX% indicating a tightening of conditions"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/1998912280671420584)  2025-12-11T00:26Z 141.7K followers, 2052 engagements