# ![@nickgerli1 Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::1037021854198915072.png) @nickgerli1 Nick Gerli

Nick Gerli, a housing market analyst, is reporting that the US housing market is experiencing a significant slowdown. Home sales are at a 30-year low, and prices are dropping in 50% of states, with some areas seeing outright crashes. The market is shifting towards a disinflationary or deflationary trend, with rents also declining, which could lead to lower CPI in [----].

### Engagements: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::1037021854198915072/interactions)
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### Social Influence

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**Social topic influence**
[housing market](/topic/housing-market) #95, [level](/topic/level) #2743, [market](/topic/market) #2516, [mortgage rate](/topic/mortgage-rate) #34, [longterm](/topic/longterm) #1355, [in the](/topic/in-the) 9.65%, [data](/topic/data) #2105, [inflation](/topic/inflation) 3.51%, [graph](/topic/graph) #89, [capital gains](/topic/capital-gains) #211

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[@n0pe2d0pe](/creator/undefined) [@thetrumpspring](/creator/undefined) [@murphy_thom](/creator/undefined) [@loughlincody](/creator/undefined) [@option3030andy](/creator/undefined) [@rdqblueridge](/creator/undefined) [@k1n9_kon9](/creator/undefined) [@douglashvc21255](/creator/undefined) [@lucas_neves_81](/creator/undefined) [@boquetehighland](/creator/undefined) [@reh04078857](/creator/undefined) [@corvette72778](/creator/undefined) [@stephaniemis1](/creator/undefined) [@johnravenda](/creator/undefined) [@amer1can_barbie](/creator/undefined) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/undefined) [@tresyhq](/creator/undefined) [@supahandz82](/creator/undefined) [@edgecgroup](/creator/undefined) [@yourmacroguy](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Lancaster Colony Corp (LANC)](/topic/$lanc) [Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW)](/topic/charles-schwab)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"Rents dropping hard north of Austin. September 2022: $2419/month November 2024: $1969/month 19% cut in two years. Owner is Tricon Residential who is owned by Blackstone. How far will these rents drop And at what point does Blackstone liquidate due to negative cash flow"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/1856456514715713806)  2024-11-12T21:58Z 144.5K followers, 275.7K engagements


"Is anyone else concerned that the U.S. economy and consumer spending is now almost entirely reliant on the 2nd largest stock market bubble on record Long-term average Shiller P/E Ratio is 17.8x Today we're at 39.8x. Only time that stock market valuations were richer was in 1999"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/1975249458402370039)  2025-10-06T17:19Z 144.5K followers, 97.3K engagements


"8) It's wild that Austin rents are now relatively cheaper than Rust Belt markets like Lancaster Pa St. Louis MO and Akron OH. Austin rents are priced like it's a no-growth Midwest town. But it's a Sun Belt boomtown (in the long-term)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2006878590546358351)  2026-01-02T00:01Z 144.6K followers, 21.2K engagements


"1) To see this point clearly let's look at the portfolio of American Homes4Rent one of the largest corporate homeowners in America (portfolio size over 60k). You can see nearly all of their portfolio is in the Sun Belt with 45% being located in just [--] metro areas (Atlanta Charlotte Dallas Phoenix Nashville Jacksonville Tampa). Not a single Northeast market and only a scant presence in Midwest"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2008980159286661222)  2026-01-07T19:12Z 144.5K followers, [----] engagements


"2) Now here's Invitation Homes' who owns over [-----] homes. 1/3 of their portfolio is in Florida. Another 40% is in Vegas Phoenix California and Seattle. 25% in southeast markets like Georgia and Carolinas. And a small amount (5%) in Midwest"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2008980785181978715)  2026-01-07T19:15Z 144.5K followers, [----] engagements


"New Home Sales: now above pre-pandemic norms Existing Home Sales: still over 20% below The reason Builders have cut the price 15% and are offering aggressive mortgage rate buydowns. While existing owners are refusing to cut the price and can't offer buydowns. Get more affordability into market through price reductions and buydowns and sales volume will bounceback. Note that the trend of new and existing sales moved in relative lockstep the last [--] years with that only changing in [----] when builders started adapting to market conditions and existing owners didn't."  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2012544561457877338)  2026-01-17T15:16Z 144.6K followers, 19.4K engagements


"3) But homebuyers don't care. Because prices are way too high. No matter the metric: home prices v inflation income or rent - they all agree that the housing market is significantly overvalued today. Homebuyers intuitively know this so they aren't interested in buying"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2014098907706339389)  2026-01-21T22:12Z 144.6K followers, [----] engagements


"4) Here's my favorite housing market graph and the one that proves we're in a housing bubble. It's Home Prices adjusted for inflation going back to [----]. The data is sourced from Robert Shiller the godfather of modern housing economics. And it shows something very clear: home prices today are 90% overvalued compared to the long-term inflation-adjusted norm. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014100242275172417 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014100242275172417"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2014100242275172417)  2026-01-21T22:18Z 144.6K followers, [----] engagements


"Fewer babies and less family formation is structurally reducing the demand to buy houses. This is a full-scale demographic reset that few are paying attention to. In less than a decade the U.S. birth rate will likely cross below the death rate. Back in [----] the U.S. had 4.3m births on a population of 252m (1.64%). But by [----] there were only 3.6m births on a population of 343m (1.07%). Meaning births are down 35% on a percentage basis and nominally they're down 16%. Fewer children and less family formation is shifting housing preferences. Households instead of valuing space security and"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2015802848802386366)  2026-01-26T15:03Z 144.5K followers, 34.5K engagements


"2) Redfin just reported that pending sales hit the lowest level on record excluding pandemic hitting. NAR data is showing that contract signings are at levels 30% below pre-pandemic and 40% off pandemic highs. There is no rebound in demand to buy occurring - in fact we're in the biggest homebuyer demand recession ever. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015803869758955917 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015803869758955917"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2015803869758955917)  2026-01-26T15:07Z 144.5K followers, [----] engagements


"3) Much of this drop-off in in demand is due to affordability constraints. Homebuyers simply can't afford today's prices especially with mortgage rates going back to historically normal levels. So they're on the sidelines. However there have been other times in history when affordability got bad and demand didn't drop like this. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015804593985196515 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015804593985196515"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2015804593985196515)  2026-01-26T15:10Z 144.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Another headwind for the Housing Market in [----] is slowing wage growth. The Atlanta Fed Wage Growth tracker now shows 12-month hourly wage growth at 3.7% which is below the 10-year median of 3.8%. Additionally - BLS Paycheck and Indeed all also show the same story in slowing wage growth. Now - it's not all bad news. Wage growth is higher than inflation leading to increased real wage growth. But direction of travel is down which means lower confidence among consumers and workers for a big-ticket home purchase. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016177722205090044"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2016177722205090044)  2026-01-27T15:53Z 144.5K followers, 10.6K engagements


"3) The way this translates into real estate in [----] is multi-fold: a) less demand to buy houses from low/middle income Americans. This group was already on the margins of buying due to high prices however slowing wage growth will cement the reality for many of them that it's wise to wait another year. b) lower rental demand as well. low to middle income earners form a majority of the renter population so if their wage growth is slowing then that helps explain why apartment vacancies are up and rents down. c) likely continued resilient demand from higher wage earners. their wage growth is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2016180695589142815)  2026-01-27T16:05Z 144.5K followers, [----] engagements


"4) Overall slowing wage growth is a fundamental issue for real estate because the sky-high prices in today's market were already well above the level dictated by wages. If wages were to surge like go up 6-7% per year this would be a boon to the housing market. As it would allow buyers to come back in without needing a drop in prices. However slowing wage growth further confirms the reality that prices will need to drop to entice buyers back. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016181186213593463 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016181186213593463"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2016181186213593463)  2026-01-27T16:07Z 144.5K followers, [----] engagements


"5) At Reventure we look at data points like Home Value/Income Ratio to help us understand if a housing market is overvalued or undervalued. You can see that across the U.S. the 20-year average Home Value/Income ratio is 3.80x. But today it's 4.29x. Indicating an overvalued market that buyers cannot afford. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016182493263622583 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016182493263622583"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2016182493263622583)  2026-01-27T16:12Z 144.5K followers, [---] engagements


"1) Here's the math on the graph from above: Values in Austin are down roughly 15% from Dec [----] to Dec [----] (and they're down by 24% from May [----] to today). In the same span incomes have risen by 17%. That combination combined with a rising base effect has dropped Austin's overvaluation rate from 39% to 3% in the last four years. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016279475202490782 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016279475202490782"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2016279475202490782)  2026-01-27T22:37Z 144.5K followers, [----] engagements


"6) I suspect this finding might be controversial to some. Austin is now heavily derided as being a "bust" market and for good reason. Values have plummeted the last [---] years. As have rents. That did happen. However - they have now dropped so much that the area is back into its historical range on prices relative to income - a big signal that the market is flipping to a "buy""  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2016285915061125310)  2026-01-27T23:03Z 144.5K followers, [----] engagements


"7) There are still some obvious headwinds though. Reventure still thinks prices will drop in [----] with a -5.2% price forecast for the year. We also recognize that property taxes are high and that mortgage rates are higher than they were before the pandemic - which could deter some buyers still. However - our research has found that price level matters more than payment level in terms of signaling when values are close to a bottom or a top. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016286440058134981 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016286440058134981"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2016286440058134981)  2026-01-27T23:05Z 144.5K followers, [----] engagements


"8) But even so it's hard to argue the value Austin now presents compared to other metros. For instance look at the Home Value/Income ratios in this assortment of high growth metros (as of Dec 2025) Austin: 4.1x Tampa: 4.4x Orlando: 4.6x Phoenix: 4.8x Nashville: 4.9x Salt Lake City: 5.4x Miami: 5.6x Austin is - by far - the cheapest high growth metro at this point. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016287434925871294 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016287434925871294"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2016287434925871294)  2026-01-27T23:09Z 144.5K followers, [----] engagements


"4) Here's an interesting one: Utah. Demand in Utah has been in the basement the last four years. But could be finding some life now. With touring up +38% to start the year compared to -10% last year at same time"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2017326501079724312)  2026-01-30T19:58Z 144.6K followers, [---] engagements


"5) Nevada: still poor. +1.4% on tours to start the year. Was +3.0% last year. Note: Nevada home sales are at lowest level since 2007-08 period so no rebound in touring is bad news for demand"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2017326754596000204)  2026-01-30T19:59Z 144.6K followers, [---] engagements


"1) There's a distinct cycle to where Americans move. You can see it clearly in the graph above. Once every 10-20 years there's a surge in Americans going south. It happened in 1993-94 2004-05 and 2021-22. This surge has a lot to do with where we are in the economic cycle interest rates and housing affordability in the South. Today we are clearly exiting that peak and are now in a trough. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017394051121639673 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017394051121639673"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2017394051121639673)  2026-01-31T00:26Z 144.5K followers, [----] engagements


"9) Access data from 1991-2024 on Migration for every county in the U.S. on Reventure App's premium plan. We will be updating the [----] data at the state level in the next two weeks. County-level updates will come in March/April. http://www.reventure.app http://www.reventure.app"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2017401199087976929)  2026-01-31T00:55Z 144.5K followers, [----] engagements


"1) Colorado now relies almost exclusively on international migration to drive the bus on remaining population growth. Although international migration dropped heavily in [----] as well and could go even lower in [----] based on current immigration policies"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2017695063556460756)  2026-01-31T20:22Z 144.5K followers, 14.2K engagements


"3) The crime statistics are wild. Violent crimes were up 61% from [----] to [----]. Homicides were up 94%. And motor vehicle theft was up 231%. Overall the U.S. only experienced a 3% increase in violent crime in the same span so these figures are shocking"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2017696312783749532)  2026-01-31T20:27Z 144.6K followers, 12.6K engagements


"4) The fingerprints of this domestic migration exodus are all across Colorado's housing market statistics. For sale inventory is at the highest level in nearly [--] years. Apartment vacancies are at the highest level in nearly [--] years. Both home values and apartment rents are now officially dropping. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017698122261291116 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017698122261291116"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2017698122261291116)  2026-01-31T20:34Z 144.6K followers, [----] engagements


"6) The apartment vacancy rate has spiked to 8.9% as of Jan [----] according to Apartmentlist. That's also the highest level on record. Normally the vacancy rate for apartments is only 6.8%. So we're dealing with a double-barreled downturn both single-family and apartment vacancies up prices down"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2017698902041100728)  2026-01-31T20:37Z 144.5K followers, 11.9K engagements


"7) Colorado will be an interesting housing market to track in [----]. Will this migration downturn continue How much will prices and rents drop I'll be paying attention to these things and heading out there to report on the ground in coming months. In the meantime check out the data on migration inventory and prices for your area at http://www.reventure.app http://www.reventure.app"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2017699281906405539)  2026-01-31T20:39Z 144.5K followers, 11.2K engagements


"Florida migration just dropped to the lowest level since [----]. [-----] net Americans moved to the Sunshine State in [----] down an astonishing 93% from the pandemic peak. Note that in a "normal" year Florida adds [------] people due to domestic migration. So current trends are also 83% below normal. In the end - this is what Florida does. It booms and it busts. You can see a similar trend playing out in the mid-to-late 2000s during the last housing downturn. Home prices in Florida are now in full-on correction mode to due to this migration decline which is attributable to rising insurance and"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2017756618054590469)  2026-02-01T00:27Z 144.5K followers, 85.8K engagements


"11) Access data on migration and price forecasts for your are at Sign up for the paid plan to get full ZIP-code level access to our price forecasts. http://www.reventure.app http://www.reventure.app"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2017762960874021055)  2026-02-01T00:52Z 144.5K followers, [----] engagements


"1) I think this is one of the biggest stories in the housing market that few people are paying attention to. Low-growth Midwest states like Ohio are now turning into more attractive places to live due to cheaper prices and some economic resurgence. Creating a new trend in state-by-state migration. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018012326805282915 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018012326805282915"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2018012326805282915)  2026-02-01T17:23Z 144.5K followers, [----] engagements


"5) One feature of Ohio's demographic and economic makeup is that it is has [--] strong large metro areas anchoring the state. All with diversified economies. Cincinnati Columbus and Cleveland all have metro populations over [--] million. That's rare for a state Ohio's size. Normally it's only 1-2 metros (think Pennsylvania with Pittsburgh/Philly or Georgia with just Atlanta). But Ohio has 3"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2018014444140237287)  2026-02-01T17:31Z 144.5K followers, [----] engagements


"6) Ohio is now out-performing on home value growth as a result. Values are up +3.5% over the last year. Compared to -5.1% in a state like Florida. The fulcrum of housing market and economic dominance is shifting rapidly in [----] back to Midwest. (you can see areas like Wisconsin are performing even better at +4.7%) https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018015364760617004 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018015364760617004"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2018015364760617004)  2026-02-01T17:35Z 144.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Over 14% of the U.S. homeowner population is now over the age of [--]. By far the highest level on record. Back in [----] there were only [---] million 75+ homeowners. Now there are [----] million. The results of this continued aging of the U.S. homeowner population will eventually be more inventory and new listings as the baby boomer population begins aging out of their homes later this decade. However in the short-term this has been a trend that has constricted inventory as older homeowners are less likely to move and sell. The "flip" will likely take place sometime around 2029-2030. When it does"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2019118778173239521)  2026-02-04T18:40Z 144.6K followers, 38K engagements


"5) Now some might retort - "well Florida has always been an older homeowner population so this is no big deal". However that's missing the shift in ownership age over the last decade. Most places today in Florida and other parts of the U.S. have an older homeowner population now than 10-15 years ago. Which implies even higher "inventory risk" going forward as the older homeowners age out of their homes and younger generations elect to sell them instead of keep them"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2019120947022717404)  2026-02-04T18:48Z 144.6K followers, [----] engagements


"6) Some might also say: "well these homes are just going to get passed down within families and won't hit the market". However according to a Charles Schwab Survey and WSJ report roughly 70% of inheritors intend to sell houses that come down from their parents. Meaning that much of Millennial and Gen-Z has minimal interest in being a landlord and/or paying for and maintaining a second home. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019122125668511909 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019122125668511909"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2019122125668511909)  2026-02-04T18:53Z 144.6K followers, [----] engagements


"8) When exactly I surmise by around 2029-2030 we will begin seeing a meaningful impact of the Baby Boomer generational aging out. Freddie Mac ran an analysis on this and found that from [----] to [----] over [--] million baby boomers will age out of their household. However the pick-up doesn't really start until [----]. By this point it will be [---] million and then grow by more than [--] million in each subsequent year"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2019123109840691506)  2026-02-04T18:57Z 144.5K followers, [----] engagements


"9) Some other locations where this is worth paying attention to is the San Francisco Bay Area/San Jose. There are ZIPs near Silicon Valley where 22-35% of homeowners are 75+. While the share of 25-44 owners is only 5-10%. The reason this happened in California is due to Prop [--] which capped property tax growth on existing owners discouraging people from selling. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019124287836131530 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019124287836131530"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2019124287836131530)  2026-02-04T19:01Z 144.5K followers, [----] engagements


"12) We're going to see this hit Florida before anywhere else. And honestly it could already be happening in Florida. The areas with the biggest price drops in the last year are mostly aging homeowner metros and counties"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2019128964879630701)  2026-02-04T19:20Z 144.5K followers, [----] engagements


"13) But again - I want to stress the regional differences at play here. Many people like to compare markets like Austin TX and St. Petersburg FL. But they're totally different in homeowner demographics. In Austin only 8% of homeowners are 75+. While in St. Pete/Pinellas County it's 22%. That means these housing markets will behave in a very different way the next [--] years as the U.S. aging curve intensifies. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019129507089666342 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019129507089666342"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2019129507089666342)  2026-02-04T19:22Z 144.5K followers, [----] engagements


"@Option3030Andy Useless Freddie Mac is publishing analyses talking about how [--] million baby boomers are about to age out of their homes. This trend will have a huge impact on the housing market over the next [--] years. https://www.freddiemac.com/research/insight/baby-boomers-impact https://www.freddiemac.com/research/insight/baby-boomers-impact"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2019130224424952162)  2026-02-04T19:25Z 144.5K followers, [---] engagements


"@Boquetehighland It wouldn't. Because those occupiers would be moving out of an existing house or apartment in most cases creating inventory elsewhere. Moreover - according to surveys 70% of inheritors plan to sell the passed down home"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2019130414066278452)  2026-02-04T19:26Z 144.5K followers, [---] engagements


"San Francisco is one of the few areas of the U.S. that is actually undervalued. Sellers took losses as big as 37% from pre-pandemic on condos near downtown. Almost back to [----] levels in some cases. Reventure's data now shows San Francisco is 15% undervalued indicating it is actually a good place to buy from a fundamentals standpoint. Our forecast also shows prices going up +3.1% in San Francisco County in [----]. Many tailwinds no behind San Francisco's back: undervalued prices surging rents better city governance and AI boom. Will likely mean strong appreciation in the near term."  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2019567260256362532)  2026-02-06T00:22Z 144.5K followers, [----] engagements


"1) To be clear: San Francisco is still expensive with the typical house/condo in San Francisco County registering at $1.26 Million in December [----]. However the relative value of houses to incomes has now fallen well below the long-term average and is near post-crash lows in [----]. Indicating: good time to buy historically speaking. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019567837711405141 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019567837711405141"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2019567837711405141)  2026-02-06T00:24Z 144.5K followers, [----] engagements


"2) The appropriate way to think about "value" and if an area is a "good buy" is to look at how expensive that area is compared to long-term norms (not to compared it to other areas). San Francisco is and always will be one of the most expensive cities to buy in the U.S. The question is is it's over or undervalued compared to its long-term norms. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019568145376375170 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019568145376375170"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2019568145376375170)  2026-02-06T00:25Z 144.5K followers, [----] engagements


"3) Due to this undervaluation in San Francisco (and the AI boom) demand is returning. In December [----] there were [---] sales which is almost back to the long-term average for the area"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2019568391091023945)  2026-02-06T00:26Z 144.5K followers, [---] engagements


"4) At the same time inventory is now back at the lowest level since [----]. Indicating a shortage in the market. Combine rebounding sales with dropping inventory and you have a concoction that is now leading to price growth once again"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2019568768700281232)  2026-02-06T00:28Z 144.5K followers, [---] engagements


"5) The result is that San Francisco is shifting hard back into a seller's market. The Reventure Score for San Francisco County is a 52/100 which is the first time it's been a seller's market in almost [--] years"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2019569173001916858)  2026-02-06T00:29Z 144.5K followers, [----] engagements


"6) To access our ZIP-code level forecasts and valuation rates for San Francisco (and other cities across the U.S.) head to and upgrade to premium. You can search nearly [-----] ZIP codes for fundamentals-based housing market data so you can make a more informed decision as a buyer or seller in [----]. http://www.reventure.app http://www.reventure.app http://www.reventure.app http://www.reventure.app"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2019569465583976454)  2026-02-06T00:30Z 144.5K followers, [----] engagements


"6) Denver CO is another one. Vacancies here just touched 9.0% and are approaching double-digits. Long-term norm is 6.8%. Denver now has some of the biggest rent cuts in the U.S. as a result"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2019929197909815722)  2026-02-07T00:20Z 144.6K followers, [---] engagements


"7) I think the apartment market is also an important leading indicator of the broader housing market. If vacancies are rising there and rents are dropping it's a signal of muted demand. And a signal that the future crop of homebuyers won't be so good. Since they'll just choose to rent instead (so long as prices remain where they are). https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019929465439084616 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019929465439084616"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2019929465439084616)  2026-02-07T00:21Z 144.6K followers, [---] engagements


"6) If Value/Income metrics are above the long-term average it signals an overvalued market. And could be an indication of weakened demand in the near term"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2020287104211648551)  2026-02-08T00:02Z 144.5K followers, [----] engagements


"4) I polled my audience on YouTube to cross-verify this assumption and asked "are you going to buy a house in 2026" [----] people voted. 37% said they'd buy if prices drop. 5% said they'd buy if rates drop. Indicating a fair amount of prospective interest in homebuying. However the vast majority of people are waiting on prices not rates"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2020570301294096801)  2026-02-08T18:47Z 144.5K followers, [----] engagements


"5) Now some people in the housing market are very protective over "prices". Donald Trump even recently said he doesn't want to drive down prices because current owners of homes should feel wealthy and not have to deal with the prospect of declining values. However I would challenge this statement/assumption as well. Because much of the "equity" in houses right now isn't actually real. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020571882580263305 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020571882580263305"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2020571882580263305)  2026-02-08T18:54Z 144.5K followers, [----] engagements


"6) Homeowner equity in the U.S. is currently $36 Trillion a record high based on the marginal prices homes are transacting for. In a tiny buyer pool with a disproportionate share of buyers being older and wealthier. According to the NAR the median age of a homebuyer in [----] was [--] years old. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020572470554870006 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020572470554870006"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2020572470554870006)  2026-02-08T18:56Z 144.6K followers, [----] engagements


"10) So there are two concepts of homeowner equity. a - the homeowner equity calc at today's marginal existing sale prices in a historically low demand environment which is mistakenly celebrated by many people in real estate b - the homeowner equity that is at the market-clearing equilibrium level which would allow buyers to buy and homes to sell which is what builders are showing us Much of the housing market focuses on a but I think we really need to start focusing on b because that's where improvement in the market will happen. If sellers can start cutting prices to the true market-clearing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2020575872806477947)  2026-02-08T19:10Z 144.6K followers, [----] engagements


"11) Of course to make this happen we do need more inventory. Inventory is the unmistakable leveler that will help sellers get with reality sooner. I think a short-term Capital Gains Tax Holiday for all long-term owners and investors would be a great way to stimulate inventory sales and the needed price declines. Give every owner of 10+ years the opportunity to sell their house for [--] years with no capital gains tax. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020576541252468761 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020576541252468761"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2020576541252468761)  2026-02-08T19:12Z 144.5K followers, [---] engagements


"2) You can see this very clearly on the below graph which tracks the last 130+ years of real home prices and nominal mortgage rates. Mortgage rates today are near the long-term average. While real inflation-adjusted prices have shot up to levels exceeding the [----] bubble"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2020568416227037469)  2026-02-08T18:40Z 144.5K followers, [----] engagements


"3) Homebuyers intuitively know that buying in today's housing market is a bad deal. They see owners of houses re-listing at prices 50% or 100% higher than they were [--] years ago. And they have no interest in buying at those prices. Regardless of what happens with mortgage rates. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020568793366368671 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020568793366368671"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2020568793366368671)  2026-02-08T18:41Z 144.5K followers, [----] engagements


"12) You'd see inventory transactions pickup while sales drop helping more Americans get their foot into the door on the American dream. I'd also pair with this an increase to the Depreciation Schedule for real estate investors bumping it up from [----] to [--] years so existing investors get a lower tax break for holding. This would also likely spur more sales and transition more homes into the hands of regular Americans"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2020576843351429139)  2026-02-08T19:13Z 144.5K followers, [----] engagements


"13) To track housing market data on a ZIP-code by ZIP-code basis head to Reventure App. We should just added a new "best month to buy and sell" metric which analyzes trends in inventory DOM and price cuts to help prospective buyers and sellers know the seasonality in their market. And when the best time to make offers is. http://www.reventure.app http://www.reventure.app"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2020577080321155495)  2026-02-08T19:14Z 144.5K followers, [----] engagements


"3 of the top [--] cities for population growth in Q3 [----] were Midwest. #1 Indianapolis #2 Columbus #5 Cleveland We're in a new era for real estate. Midwest is the migration magnet and is undersupplied on construction. Comparatively previously hot Sun Belt markets like Dallas Atlanta Houston Tampa Orlando and Miami are now losing people. These areas are still oversupplied in construction. I wouldn't be surprised if we see several years of Midwest outperformance on price growth/rent growth and several more years of Sun Belt underperformance. Source: Bank of America internal account data"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/1998088323189891397)  2025-12-08T17:52Z 144.5K followers, 24.9K engagements


"1) additional pages from the order"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2014201157887897690)  2026-01-22T04:59Z 144.5K followers, [----] engagements


"2) interestingly stock prices for these companies who are publicly traded arent really moving down. Invitation Homes is up over last month. Same with American Homes [--] Rent"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2014210414020579580)  2026-01-22T05:35Z 144.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Domestic Migration to Southern States has collapsed. 60% off the pandemic peak and now the the 4th lowest rate on record (0.27%). The last time it was this low it was 2009-2012 housing bust and recession. The reason domestic migration has dropped is due to worsening affordability to go along with a natural post-pandemic overhang in states like Texas Florida and Georgia. This helps explain why home prices are now dropping in these areas. (Please note: Domestic Migration measures where Americans are moving but not include International Immigration)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2017393613269839896)  2026-01-31T00:24Z 144.5K followers, 22.9K engagements


"The next big boom state is.Ohio Ohio registered +12000 domestic migration in [----]. The highest level on record (by far). The state lost people every year from 1991-2022 but now is gaining. Why Affordability and data centers. The typical home value in Ohio is only $237k the 9th cheapest in the U.S. There has also been a huge amount of data center investment in the state by the Hyperscalers creating short-term job opportunities. We'll have to track these domestic migration figures in future years to see if they stick. But for now Ohio is turning into a growth state. Source: US Census Bureau"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2018012073586745464)  2026-02-01T17:22Z 144.5K followers, 28.7K engagements


"4) Or how about Tampa FL Vacancies there are up to 8.4%. From a low of 2.4% during the pandemic"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2019928509104222448)  2026-02-07T00:17Z 144.5K followers, [----] engagements


"5) Fort Myers is a market that is now in double-digit vacancies. 11.8% currently. Long-term norm is 8.0%. (market is seasonal so the recent dip in vacancies does not necessarily reflect an improvement as vacancies typically hit seasonal bottom in February)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2019928870611493330)  2026-02-07T00:19Z 144.5K followers, [---] engagements


"8) So is this homeowner equity figure even real I don't think it is. Builders are already showing us this. They've cut prices 14% from peak and are giving generous mortgage rate buydowns. They've given up their equity a bit and taken a hit to profit margin. And as a result sales for builders are returning to normal. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020574235039543447 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020574235039543447"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2020574235039543447)  2026-02-08T19:03Z 144.5K followers, [----] engagements


"3) People have almost casually gotten used to this with many Gen-Z and Millennial households thinking that they'll never be able to afford a home and thus they stop looking. Similarly many realtors and mortgage brokers are quitting the industry because the sales volume simply isn't there to drive fees and incomes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2020991617864265864)  2026-02-09T22:42Z 144.5K followers, [----] engagements


"6) Lower mortgage rates could help matters especially by loosening up some of the stuck inventory in the re-sale market. However mortgage rates have dropped by close to [---] BPS year-over-year yet there has been no meaningful improvement in demand"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2020992735654641945)  2026-02-09T22:46Z 144.5K followers, [----] engagements


"10) In some ways builders are showing you what should happen in the U.S. Housing Market more broadly. However it isn't happening outside of certain states due to a restriction on inventory. And an overall unwillingness of sellers to cut the price of their house to the level it needs to be to sell. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020993755587936364 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020993755587936364"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2020993755587936364)  2026-02-09T22:50Z 144.5K followers, [----] engagements


"11) Many in the housing market mistakenly celebrate this "seller resilience" by claiming that sellers have the leverage and control and thus buyers should give up on waiting. But what these people fail to realize is that it's the false seller perception of price that is causing this horrific market where nothing sells and where most sellers are incapable of unlocking their equity. And where most buyers are locked out. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020994021041070429 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020994021041070429"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2020994021041070429)  2026-02-09T22:51Z 144.5K followers, [----] engagements


"12) My solution: a short-term capital gains tax holiday. Give every long-term owner in U.S. primary owner and investor alike a 2-year holiday from paying capital gains tax if they sell their house. This would stimulate listings and transactions and likely force prices down to market-clearing levels. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020994694914711706 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020994694914711706"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2020994694914711706)  2026-02-09T22:54Z 144.5K followers, [----] engagements


"14) These two policies together (cap gains tax holiday and higher depreciation years for investors) would solve the housing affordability crisis in the U.S. in the short-term and long-term. Without even needing the government to do much. No burdensome regulation of how many properties people own. Just simply aligning the tax code with getting more homes on the market rather than held off the market"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2020995510996218103)  2026-02-09T22:57Z 144.5K followers, [---] engagements


"1) The common mistake people make in the housing market is that they attribute this demand collapse to mortgage rates. Often they blame the Fed for keeping rates too high. However this is a faulty premise. Today's mortgage rates in the low-6% range are abundantly normal historically and right around the 100+ year housing market average. What's different is prices. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020567622455116053 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020567622455116053"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2020567622455116053)  2026-02-08T18:37Z 144.5K followers, [----] engagements


"7) Indicating that many of those still buying in those low-demand environments are price inelastic and can afford to pay higher prices thus supporting the current marginal median price of $410k. However here's the important takeaway to understand. The current prices would not be possible in a normal demand environment with higher transactions. To support higher transactions more Millennial and Gen-Z households would need to buy and they would not pay or can't afford to pay the $410k median price"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2020573114397086194)  2026-02-08T18:59Z 144.5K followers, [----] engagements


"9) Builders are operating in their own environment so to speak. They have tons of inventory. And a willingness to sell the houses. So they cut prices and give buydowns to the level they need to induce sales. Creating a fairly efficient market"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2020993473374015769)  2026-02-09T22:49Z 144.5K followers, [---] engagements


"Austin TX is now back to pre-pandemic apartment rents. Down 21% from peak in summer of [----]. $1636/month -- $1288/month (I'm now even seeing 2BRs in some apartments at sub-$1000) This rental correction is due to a sharp drop in migration/demand combined with a surge of new apartment development. At this point Austin has its cheapest rents on record relative to income. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2006872715316121750 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2006872715316121750"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2006872715316121750)  2026-01-01T23:38Z 144.5K followers, 1.7M engagements


"4) But it doesn't have to be this way. A housing market with more inventory and lower prices would unlock itself and allow demand to return and the prospect of the American dream to seem attainable again"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2020991819241148926)  2026-02-09T22:42Z 144.5K followers, [----] engagements


"5) The principal issue today is prices. The existing sale price for a house in late [----] was $410k. Amazingly 11% higher than when mortgage rates spiked in [----]. Sellers keep increasing list prices as demand continues to fall. Creating a disjointed and frozen housing market where no one is really benefiting. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020992106194514246 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020992106194514246"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2020992106194514246)  2026-02-09T22:44Z 144.5K followers, [----] engagements


"1) The thing that has kept California's population growing during this period is a) international immigration and b) birth-death surplus. However both of those sources of population growth are slowing now too"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2021731861374902375)  2026-02-11T23:43Z 144.5K followers, [----] engagements


"It's now more profitable to buy a 6-Month US Treasury than to buy Real Estate. How do you think all those Wall Street Homebuyers feel right now They're literally earning a lower yield than my mom's retirement account"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1594714492591644673)  2022-11-21T15:28Z 144.5K followers, [----] engagements


"📉The Demographic Decline of America. For first time EVER there's more People Living Alone (37.9M) than Households with a Child (33.9M) BAD NEWS for future of Society and Housing Market"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1604910995654250497)  2022-12-19T18:46Z 144.5K followers, 974K engagements


"The Savings Rate just collapsed down to 2.2% the lowest level ever. 📉 Means Americans are running out of money. Last time it was this low was 2006-07. Right before GFC. Major Recession Warning. Expect a big decline in consumer spending in 2023"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1612924280886394887)  2023-01-10T21:28Z 144.5K followers, 1.5M engagements


"The inventory spike in Texas/Florida right now is breathtaking. Active listings in these two states up to [------]. The highest level in the last [--] years. And they continue to go up like a hockey stick. Don't be surprised if values in Texas/Florida are down by at least 10% by year end. Meanwhile - Northeast US is still in massive inventory shortage"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1812833751547654449)  2024-07-15T12:57Z 144.5K followers, 633.8K engagements


"A problem is developing in the Housing Market: Homebuyers are not responding to lower mortgage rates.❌ Mortgage apps (to purchase) still down 57% from pandemic peak. And 43% from pre-pandemic levels. You can see clearly on the chart below that applications are not following the inverse of Mortgage Rates up. (thread) $JMIA It does appear finally that the new strategy of spending less but building out the footprint is working. Black Friday results (BF is a full month for JMIA not a day). Lots of data but this first one should be a "wow" for those new to this idea. In the first two $JMIA It does"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1839361111218667555)  2024-09-26T17:47Z 144.5K followers, 742.1K engagements


"The Austin TX rental market is collapsing before our eyes. With the median apartment rent dropping 15% over the last 2+ years. The vacancies have skyrocketed. Rental concessions are everywhere. Rents are now only 9.8% higher than pre-pandemic. Meaning that many Austin landlords are losing money as property taxes insurance and interest costs are way higher. (This is a harsh lesson on the boom/bust cycle in real estate for many developers and investors who bought into Austin during the boom. Read more below to see how this happened.)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1857184909837906393)  2024-11-14T22:12Z 144.5K followers, 2M engagements


"Rarely has buying a home been this expensive in America. The only other two times with historical precedence are [----] and [----]. In [----] mortgage rates were 18%. In [----] we were about to experience the biggest housing crash ever. What will happen in [----] and beyond"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1872340417808839089)  2024-12-26T17:55Z 144.5K followers, 721.9K engagements


"I don't think people understand what's happening in housing market right now. Florida now has [-----] listings. Highest level on record. Entire Northeast U.S. has [-----] listings. Lowest level on record. People are leaving Florida. And moving back north. A structural trend that will likely last years and cause Florida's housing market to decline for an extended period"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1917924071909822874)  2025-05-01T12:48Z 144.5K followers, 3.7M engagements


"For the first time ever it is considerably cheaper to buy a new house than to buy an existing house. Likely signals an inflection point in the housing market"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1957533447443845290)  2025-08-18T20:01Z 144.5K followers, 1.6M engagements


"We ran the numbers and there's one metric that explains why home prices are dropping in certain cities and going up in others: Inventory Surplus The markets with the biggest inventory surplus (Dallas Tampa Austin) all have declining prices YoY. Meanwhile the markets where inventory is still in a deficit (bottom right) all have increasing prices. Look at Inventory Surplus/Deficit to predict where prices are heading in your area. This data point can be accessed under a premium plan at under our Market Trends section. http://www.reventure.app http://www.reventure.app"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1970864227951727052)  2025-09-24T14:53Z 144.5K followers, 129.5K engagements


"Florida condo crash happening in real-time. Seller cut price to $256k. Back in [----] it was valued at over $1 million. 75% haircut in [--] years. And 50% over the last [--] years. This condo building was built in the 1970s and apparently has huge deferred maintenance and repairs. So existing condo owners / new buyers are getting stuck with the bill. ($326k special assessment on this unit also needs renovation. So the buyer's all-in cost is probably closer to $700k). In this ZIP code condo values have dropped about 10% in aggregate the last [--] years. But clearly some units in older buildings with"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2011184687847534944)  2026-01-13T21:12Z 144.5K followers, 1.1M engagements


"Austin TX - almost undervalued. Prices have dropped so much that Austin's housing market is now only 3% overvalued in early [----]. This is how housing crashes can be a good thing. Prices are down nearly 25% from peak and wages have kept rising and buyers in Austin now have significantly more affordability. Reventure will be giving a "buy signal" on Austin once it crosses into undervalued territory. That won't mean prices will immediately stop dropping. But it will mean the worst is over. And that buyers/investors can get in at a decent price point in a market that is still top of the table in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2016278891023761868)  2026-01-27T22:35Z 144.5K followers, 159.8K engagements


"What's going on in Colorado The state normally a migration powerhouse has fallen off a cliff the last four years. And in [----] over [-----] Americans left Colorado. The biggest outmigration in the state's history according to US Census Bureau Population Estimates. Normally over the last [--] years Colorado adds about [-----] people per year. So a [------] reading on domestic migration is shocking. Higher housing costs return to office mandates and increases in crime are causing the exodus"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2017693237553615016)  2026-01-31T20:15Z 144.5K followers, 387.4K engagements


"Apartment rents are plunging in certain markets. Florida Texas and Arizona are leading the way. Declines ranging from 4% to 10% in the last [--] months alone. Some of these areas have vacancy rates north of double-digits indicating lots of empty apartments to fillup. Good news for renters as these locations are finally seeing some affordability relief. Not so good news for landlords some of whom have mortgage maturities rolling in a declining rent environment. Could see some defaults/foreclosures"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2019924540487238130)  2026-02-07T00:01Z 144.5K followers, 41.5K engagements


"The principal issue in housing right is between prices and incomes. The typical value of a house acc to Zillow is now $365k. Meanwhile the US median income is only $85k acc to Census Bureau. That means the price/income ratio is 4.20x well above the historical norms. You can see the "decoupling" between prices and income started in early 2000s corrected during last crash but quickly separated again in 2010s and pandemic. Until prices and incomes come more back into balance the U.S. Housing Market will remain mired in its worst demand recession in history"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2020283737389314317)  2026-02-07T23:49Z 144.5K followers, 43.2K engagements


"1) This highlights how the fundamental issue in real estate right now is not mortgage rates. It's the interplay between prices and incomes. You can see the Home Value/Income Ratio today of 4.20x is near the highest level on record. That's why people aren't buying"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2020284914415923202)  2026-02-07T23:53Z 144.5K followers, [----] engagements


"7) We track this down to the ZIP code giving buyers and sellers newfound insight into the valuation prospects of their local housing market and if incomes are keeping pace with prices"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2020287273636409531)  2026-02-08T00:03Z 144.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Why are home sales so low Because prices are too high. Existing prices for houses are $410k entering [----] - more than 2x what they were [--] years ago. The result Demand has collapsed. Pending sales are down at their lowest level on record according to data from the NAR more than 40% below pandemic peak and more than 25% below pre-pandemic norms. We won't see meaningful sales and demand recovery until prices drop. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020566380798480831 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020566380798480831"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2020566380798480831)  2026-02-08T18:32Z 144.5K followers, 31.5K engagements


"Everything wrong with the housing market - in one graph. The typical American household needs to make $109000 to afford a house in the [-----] housing market. But the typical household only earns $85000. This historic lack of affordability is comparable to the [----] housing bubble and early 1980s when mortgage rates were 18%. The result is a deep demand recession with American homebuyers on their biggest buyer strike in history. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020989576798470262 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020989576798470262"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2020989576798470262)  2026-02-09T22:33Z 144.5K followers, 38.8K engagements


"1) This demand recession is historic in nature. From [----] to [----] over [--] years only 4.7% of homes sold per year on the U.S. housing market according to data from the NAR and US Census Bureau. This was the lowest rate of sales turnover since [----] when mortgage rates hit 18%. As well as a brief period in 1969-70. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020990883345109187 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020990883345109187"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2020990883345109187)  2026-02-09T22:39Z 144.5K followers, [----] engagements


"15) One key point though: The Capital Gains Tax holiday has to include investors. We need investors to sell houses into the hands of regular Americans to actually improve affordability. Some people won't like this because they think it will be a "gift" to wealthy investors. However it's far better for these investors to sell their house on the market and avoid paying capital gains tax than to continue hoarding and accumulating houses off the market out of reach of regular Americans. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020995868095041783 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020995868095041783"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2020995868095041783)  2026-02-09T22:58Z 144.5K followers, [----] engagements


"16) To see our price forecast for your market and to track housing market data down to your ZIP code head to and upgrade to our premium plan for the full suite of data points for your area. http://www.reventure.app http://www.reventure.app"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2020995978258485393)  2026-02-09T22:59Z 144.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Home builders have unlocked a key to success in the 2025-26 housing market: cut prices. Back in October [----] the median sale price for builder homes was $460k. Now it's $392k a 14% drop. The result Higher sales volume. Builder sales (orange) are now back to pre-pandemic norms and well above the level for most of the 2010s. Note that this sales price data does not include the value of mortgage rate buydowns. When those are included builders have likely cut net prices close to 20%. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021381805694243120 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021381805694243120"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2021381805694243120)  2026-02-11T00:32Z 144.5K followers, 12.4K engagements


"It's amazing how landlords operate. Equity Residential cut new lease rents by -18.0% in Denver in Q4 [----]. But still achieved a +2.5% increase in renewals. If only tenants realized how much negotiating leverage they had"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2021717574828921228)  2026-02-11T22:46Z 144.5K followers, [----] engagements


"2) Theoretically new lease rents should be higher as rental inflation should mean that last year's rent is lower than this year's rent. But that's not happening right now. Since the market is so oversupplied for apartments and even single-families in some areas rents are dropping hard"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2021718933644951803)  2026-02-11T22:52Z 144.5K followers, [----] engagements


"California lost [------] Americans in [----] due to domestic move-outs. This is an improvement from the pandemic low. But still a very poor figure historically. Note that California has lost people every year since [----] due to domestic outmigration it's simply a matter of how bad it is. The worst losses were in the early 1990s mid-2000s and post-pandemic. Has a lot to do with housing affordability. If prices and rents in California decline the outflow will slow"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2021731402698416285)  2026-02-11T23:41Z 144.5K followers, 19.1K engagements


"The housing demand crash just got worse. January [----] existing sales just fell to [----] million annualized a 4% drop YoY and 42% below pandemic peak. Homebuyer demand is now 27% below pre-pandemic norms and showing no signs of recovering. A record lack of affordability is to blame with inflation-adjusted prices still near a record. So long as prices remain high these historically low demand figures will persist"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2022031889763319947)  2026-02-12T19:35Z 144.5K followers, [----] engagements


"1) What's even more concerning is that the early indicators for the spring housing market are looking bleak. Home tours real estate searches and pending sales are all below last January/February levels. Suggesting that we'll continue to have low sales figures in February and March. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022032276360769841 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022032276360769841"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2022032276360769841)  2026-02-12T19:37Z 144.5K followers, [----] engagements


"2) Redfin just reported that pending sales for the month ending 2/10 are -5% below last year. Pending sales and contract signings today are indicated of closed transactions in future months. Another bearish signal"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2022032552283046180)  2026-02-12T19:38Z 144.5K followers, [----] engagements


"3) Revneture's own housing demand index is also showing a big deceleration in early [----]. The index tracks pending sales mortgage apps real estate searches and buyer sentiment. The index is now at a 5/100 in mid-February. Near the lowest level on record and lower than anything we saw in the [----] downturn. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022035753300091331 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022035753300091331"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2022035753300091331)  2026-02-12T19:51Z 144.5K followers, [---] engagements


"4) The only cure for this is lower prices. Homebuyers have built up such an intertia to buying right now and many simply can't afford it. Beyond that - it's way cheaper to rent and renting is quite comfortable in [----]. As a result no rush to buy. (unless the deal is good)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2022037892189843841)  2026-02-12T19:59Z 144.5K followers, [---] engagements


"5) One suggestion i have to fix this market and return affordability inventory and sales is a Capital Gains Tax holiday. For two years eliminate Capital Gains tax on sales for all owners who have owned for over [--] years. This would lead to a flood of supply hitting the market decrease prices and result in a big boost in sales. In order for this to work investors would have to be included in the holiday as it's important for them to sell. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022038146959966401 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022038146959966401"  
[X Link](https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/2022038146959966401)  2026-02-12T20:00Z 144.5K followers, [----] engagements

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