# ![@jdmsparky Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::1519485425735409664.png) @jdmsparky Sparky

Sparky posts on X about $xyf, $qfin, $jfin, $finv the most. They currently have [---] followers and [--] posts still getting attention that total [--] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1519485425735409664/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1519485425735409664/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [-----] -100%
- [--] Month [----------] +240%
- [--] Months [----------] +1,368,351%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1519485425735409664/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1519485425735409664/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- [--] Week [--] no change
- [--] Month [--] -19%
- [--] Months [--] +593%

### Followers: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::1519485425735409664/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1519485425735409664/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- [--] Week [---] no change
- [--] Month [---] no change
- [--] Months [---] +633%

### CreatorRank: undefined [#](/creator/twitter::1519485425735409664/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1519485425735409664/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[finance](/list/finance)  16.16% [stocks](/list/stocks)  12.12% [currencies](/list/currencies)  4.04% [countries](/list/countries)  3.03% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  2.02% [social networks](/list/social-networks)  1.01% [gaming](/list/gaming)  1.01% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  1.01% [celebrities](/list/celebrities)  1.01%

**Social topic influence**
[$xyf](/topic/$xyf) 30.3%, [$qfin](/topic/$qfin) 27.27%, [$jfin](/topic/$jfin) 19.19%, [$finv](/topic/$finv) 17.17%, [business](/topic/business) 6.06%, [in the](/topic/in-the) 5.05%, [the 24](/topic/the-24) 4.04%, [$cvna](/topic/$cvna) 4.04%, [alot](/topic/alot) 3.03%, [fine](/topic/fine) 3.03%

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@pandawatch88](/creator/undefined) [@globalcollapse](/creator/undefined) [@chiawatchitgrow](/creator/undefined) [@vdmandele](/creator/undefined) [@kiwimitch77](/creator/undefined) [@vuittoncapital](/creator/undefined) [@giacobocanegra](/creator/undefined) [@stocklogging](/creator/undefined) [@justinvesttoday](/creator/undefined) [@1lemonaday](/creator/undefined) [@nycmsk](/creator/undefined) [@dheerajnam](/creator/undefined) [@ccmbrett](/creator/undefined) [@tobias130303](/creator/undefined) [@plsfixthx](/creator/undefined) [@arguspanopticon](/creator/undefined) [@ronsterncfa](/creator/undefined) [@jackfarley96](/creator/undefined) [@0xmerridew](/creator/undefined) [@multifolio](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Carvana Co. (CVNA)](/topic/$cvna) [Pagaya Technologies Ltd. Class A Ordinary Shares (PGY)](/topic/$pgy) [Sandisk Corporation (SNDK)](/topic/$sndk) [Western Union Co (WU)](/topic/$wu) [Lufax Holding Ltd (LU)](/topic/$lu) [Vertiv Holdings Co (VRT)](/topic/$vrt) [GE Vernova Inc. (GEV)](/topic/$gev) [Quanta Services Inc (PWR)](/topic/$pwr) [Oracle Corporation (ORCL)](/topic/$orcl) [CoreWeave, Inc (CRWV)](/topic/$crwv) [Nebius Group N.V. Class A Ordinary Shares (NBIS)](/topic/$nbis) [Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM)](/topic/$afrm) [CarMax, Inc (KMX)](/topic/$kmx) [Coldstack (CLS)](/topic/$cls) [Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST)](/topic/$upst) [Enova International, Inc. (ENVA)](/topic/$enva) [Micron Technology, Inc. (MU)](/topic/$mu) [Western Digital Corp (WDC)](/topic/$wdc)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"@CCM_Brett Good company. But active customers & send volume growth is slowing. Business model isnt too special (newer $wu) especially compared to $WISE.L. but its not bad"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1992845270095220903)  2025-11-24T06:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@pandawatch88 Whats worse $qd and $lu or jfins CRE purchase to expand hq which it is now using as a source of equity for on-book lending"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/2002604496120381876)  2025-12-21T04:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$qfin $xyf $finv $jfin $pgy loan facilitation comparison table. XYF still my favorite. then QFIN. JFIN has too little equity to pivot to capital heavy if need be. still good tho. **some players have other businesses (guarantee insurance) which skews the volume/sales ratios"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1972134880231542899)  2025-09-28T03:02Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"$JFIN started a small position at [--] while working on writeup. I only had XYF before but given JFIN is now worth less the gap has shrunk. Valuation here simply too low even if EBIT falls 50% worst case scenario its a p/e of [--]. $qfin $finv still falling watching those"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1978866507355504671)  2025-10-16T16:51Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"$QFIN is positioned best for the upcoming environment. $JFIN I'd worry about. They've grown too fast little equity. Likely 50%+ of their loans are non-compliant. and they have little flexibility for capital-heavy/on-bs lending. They may lose a huge chunk of volume"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1983950574631710847)  2025-10-30T17:34Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"$qfin $finv $XYF $LX $jfin a must-read for those interested. panda knows this far better than i do. I wish i could say something but as stated nothing is clear. Annnnd it's out (finally some delay got busy conducting A B testing on Moutai in Europe). https://t.co/84ed3TXk0K Annnnd it's out (finally some delay got busy conducting A B testing on Moutai in Europe). https://t.co/84ed3TXk0K"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1985128268350038359)  2025-11-02T23:33Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"$qfin $finv $xyf earnings soon I will provide my subpar coverage. Lets hope for some positive news on this space for once"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1990212713793061240)  2025-11-17T00:17Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"$QFIN usually see FY guides and buyback plans in Q4 i don't expect much from Q3. important numbers are the provisions and Q4 NI guide"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1990891229106598306)  2025-11-18T21:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$QFIN yeah thats alot of provisioning. horrific guidance the question is is it transitory i think so"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1990905433868190156)  2025-11-18T22:10Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"$QFIN Hate saying "the market is wrong" but id wager QFIN is simply being overly cautious on provisioning. There is no reason for this space to implode and if it does QFIN would be the one left to take share. I imagine the Q4 guidance is also heavily dampened by provisions"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1990918495325073775)  2025-11-18T23:02Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"$QFIN why are provisions up Some accounts have mentioned the fears on X (pandawatch 1lemonaday) but some people would use one personal loan to repay another. given 36% is now going away some consumers may default as that cycle is cut"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1990922099171733630)  2025-11-18T23:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$QFIN 170m left worth of buybacks to be used this year. seems like they will follow through with that as stated on the call"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1990956501368807734)  2025-11-19T01:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"EBIT falling 50% is not worst case for JFIN. likely the base case now. If the loan agreements hold up and defaults do not hit them we might see that. Fact is loan volume will likely be cut in half. bottom line will be worse and thats before we get into credit losses. $JFIN started a small position at [--] while working on writeup. I only had XYF before but given JFIN is now worth less the gap has shrunk. Valuation here simply too low even if EBIT falls 50% worst case scenario its a p/e of [--]. $qfin $finv still falling watching those. https://t.co/J7Fyh2spyc $JFIN started a small position at 10"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1991579357920493793)  2025-11-20T18:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@GiacoBocanegra I have done a significant amount of digging in this sector. Asked a Q on the call and have biweekly chats with $xyf IR. Yes its extremely cheap but they will likely lose profitability in coming quarters. Likely 50% of vol from 24%+. 70% of EBIT. Long run i like it. Good mgt"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1993116829821419628)  2025-11-25T00:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@GiacoBocanegra $qfin $finv are the safe bets here. Low leverage stronger loan portfolios. They will be fine fwd p/es of 3.5-5 with growth likely after the storm passes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1993117559676137776)  2025-11-25T00:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Further reason to own $QFIN $FINV over a $jfin or $xyf. Yicai: "China will further reduce the number of small and medium-sized financial institutions and improve their quality next year as part of broader efforts to prevent financial risks and deepen reforms in the capital market." https://t.co/6Cs4yN3FdM Yicai: "China will further reduce the number of small and medium-sized financial institutions and improve their quality next year as part of broader efforts to prevent financial risks and deepen reforms in the capital market." https://t.co/6Cs4yN3FdM"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/2000111652893577524)  2025-12-14T07:52Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"$Qfin and $FINV seem to have bottomed out. Maybe they drift lower over the next year but the pain is probably over unless we see credit loss metrics really push above the provision expectations. Still like them alot"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/2003863955140460730)  2025-12-24T16:22Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Little dashboard for $QFIN. The previous post was a bit too scrappy and did not add up I can stand by this with more confidence. Please point out any inconsistencies or mistakes if you see them. FCF (and EV somewhat) not applicable for this business"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/2006945179446686000)  2026-01-02T04:26Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"welcome to [----] and goodbye to $QFIN's [----] buyback plan. lets see what happens"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/2006962564085985518)  2026-01-02T05:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Power and electrification trading at 40-60x fwd is extremely worrying. All valuations price in huge backlog and margin expansion due to AI demand. But even if profits do 4x for 2-5y margin compression will strike at some point. $pwr $vrt perhaps $gev"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/2012075112099692859)  2026-01-16T08:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Like $XYF again. do not buy this because of the p/e earnings are going to contract at least 75%. But mgt still committed to divi then buyback. 48m USD left in plan will be used. If they pay 6-7/shr after that 32m shrs outstanding 1.15b equity [--] BVPS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/2017895870725812368)  2026-02-01T09:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Problems at $XYF are regulatory. Not credit. You get a soon to be 0.15x TBV that is management aligned and willing to repurchase. And no its not a fraud. If anyone is in that game its $jfin"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/2017896535548137829)  2026-02-01T09:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@vdmandele All the other IR teams in the sector dont understand them they are an oddball. the $jfin IR team doesnt want to disclose anything (24%+ exposure cap heavy % etc) $xyf is far more open. Vintage curves are the same as XYF so its not like they have some credit advantage"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/2018012847779795131)  2026-02-01T17:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@vdmandele You could be correct about the repeat borrowing. But perhaps they dont use (or include in reporting) a teaser loan like $XYF does to make sure the borrower doesnt run immediately. And 0.58x p/b vs 0.17x would rather have $xyf 0.17x and they are more aggressive on buybacks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/2018013679782883798)  2026-02-01T17:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Sam Bankman fried running the $orcl twitter account The NVIDIA-OpenAI deal has zero impact on our financial relationship with OpenAI. We remain highly confident in OpenAIs ability to raise funds and meet its commitments. The NVIDIA-OpenAI deal has zero impact on our financial relationship with OpenAI. We remain highly confident in OpenAIs ability to raise funds and meet its commitments"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/2018439724361253242)  2026-02-02T21:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@GlobalCollapse @ChiaWatchItGrow i dont know much about qfin but from what ive heard its higher quality. the majority of this info is pulled from years of quarterly and annual reports. i really only dove into xyf but i may closer at the others at some point"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1948957754904748089)  2025-07-26T04:05Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@ChiaWatchItGrow @GlobalCollapse thank you for this insight - since ive only mainly looked at xyf i didnt know this. one question - is the unique strategy a more referral based program and do you think margins can be sustained in the long run (borrower stickyness)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1948973877620564078)  2025-07-26T05:09Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@stock_logging Youre probably correct i calculated the 8% myself (i did later see this in the filing after publishing the report). Perhaps some are externally funded but held on their own balance sheet Or my estimation was incorrect (most likely answer)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1952453904861421671)  2025-08-04T19:37Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@stock_logging @tobias130303 They dont really have (much) long term debt i think this is a bug with that program interpreting a weird balance sheet and income statement. The way this company works makes it a little hard to discern actual debt from deposits or liabilities held at funding partners etc"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1953919399879995442)  2025-08-08T20:41Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@GlobalCollapse Roblox has strong cash flow and rapid growth its just that SBC hides the true profitability. Even still its extremely expensive. Great business but i would not pay 80b. I like crox though"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1955712664224649555)  2025-08-13T19:26Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@GlobalCollapse"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1957943602925170817)  2025-08-19T23:11Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@GlobalCollapse i expect XYF's earnings to fall 30% or so (bad case scenario) however after 2-3 quarters the company should resume growth with higher asset quality. could fetch a 5-7x earnings multiple after all that passes if the quality of the company improves enough"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1957949622619631643)  2025-08-19T23:35Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@pandawatch88 @ChiaWatchItGrow i will be on a call with the IR guy friday let me know if you come up with a way to phrase this so im not just asking "hey your company seems to be skirting the pricing cap regulations how many are actually compliant" however funny that may be lol"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1957995162585510292)  2025-08-20T02:36Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@kiwi_mitch77 Never saw this its very good research. I should note its moreso a split between [--] businesses microlending (on balance sheet 5-10%) and the capital light (off bs connects borrowers with lenders) 80-90%. They are also scaling their guarantee business too"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1970568387576422827)  2025-09-23T19:18Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@kiwi_mitch77 The microlending division is required to have the capital light portion and the capital light portion doesnt carry much credit risk. Wish i found the stock earlier but Im happy to buy in the 10s"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1970569032613945564)  2025-09-23T19:20Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@pandawatch88 Idk how to access the chinese app stores or internet in the USA maybe ill look into that later. Unless its also on the broader internet and i just dont know what to look for. The closest i got was after i begged my chinese friend to download the xiaoying card loan app lol"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1974317618317455684)  2025-10-04T03:36Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"$CRWV $NBIS car rental company economics wrapped in shiny clothes. with a sprinkle of understated depreciation. jarvis bring me my [----] 30x EBIT projection. and raise the price target to [---] we need to underwrite the next offering"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1979016307262607505)  2025-10-17T02:47Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@pls_fix_thx I dont have much invested in it its more-so a learning experience than an attempt at a meaningful return. And i have learned quite a bit so far"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1979182953247711652)  2025-10-17T13:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ChiaWatchItGrow @GlobalCollapse i know yall follow this stock/sector thoughts and opinions"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1948936710831718894)  2025-07-26T02:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@GlobalCollapse $qfin earnings were odd. large beat on revenue but the guidance was a little light. was on the call and they seemed to brush off the regulatory scrutiny around the 24% pricing cap. i need to see if this revenue can show up on the bottom line. meh quarter but id still buy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1956425290839740432)  2025-08-15T18:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@ArgusPanopticon seems alot worse for $XYF given they are more capital light and its a smaller business. maybe $jfin too but im not very familiar with them. doubt they can continue their growth in this environment but given the ttm [---] p/e ill take my chances probably mostly priced in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1957455335716704487)  2025-08-18T14:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$xyf incredible quarter but loan volume guidance is weak as expected. Need clarity on call. Yuan 675m operating income 2.3m shares bought back dividend [----] to [----]. Will update model later and review in more depth"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1957553823871844712)  2025-08-18T21:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@ChiaWatchItGrow Overall these numbers are extremely impressive. Not sure how the stock will react given what really matters is how much damage the upcoming regulatory changes will have"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1957556345206349829)  2025-08-18T21:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"$XYF large increase in provisions. 2.7m ADS equivalent buyback at 17/share. need margin or some form of bottom line guidance on the call regarding regulatory headwinds. if net income only falls back to [----] numbers ill be happy. ttm p/e [----] p/b 0.47"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1957571966292095190)  2025-08-18T22:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$XYF got off my call with XYF's head of IR. great guy btw loved talking to him. For Q3 as they head into a period of regulatory uncertainty they want to be more conservative with loan volumes and focus on quality. as for the 24% pricing cap and regulatory situation -"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1959034901702873159)  2025-08-22T23:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$AFRM not sure what the value proposition is here. 7.5x fwd sales on what is essentially loan facilitation without even getting to profitability why buy that over 0.5-0.75x sales from $XYF $jfin China loan facilitation. yes one has more structural risk. but a 90% discount"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1961168229742604582)  2025-08-28T20:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$Tigr I like the financials and valuation behind this asian broker my only worry is that retail excitement in markets is very high and in an extended downturn we may see retail leave the market and revenues fall. however it's cheap relative to peers"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1970999188348600528)  2025-09-24T23:50Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@JustinvestToday nope i think its legit they are a just bit of an oddball and $XYF themselves dont even know that much about them. it confused me as they are extremely similar companies. ive asked for more information on them which ill get next week"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1974525100495130639)  2025-10-04T17:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$CVNA I remember laughing when this shit went from $7 to $3. I may have been wrong then but smoking crack is the only excuse for owning this at $375. Havent checked in for a while but am interested with the $KMX tricolor & first brands situation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1974548732868997477)  2025-10-04T18:54Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"$XYF is being held up by the sheer volume of buybacks. $JFIN is less shareholder friendly (ex. 1.4b yuan property purchase light on buybacks) and is a reason for the underperformance"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1978867714660749540)  2025-10-16T16:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@vdmandele oh sorry i dont make that very clear in my sheet. its the multiples given my dcf's NPV. basically what i think it should trade around. also a new $QFIN analyst note today not good for jfin"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1978944454070317205)  2025-10-16T22:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Qfin is 30-40% cap-light 60%+ on bs so they can move the rest over. but $JFIN cant do this they have little equity. $XYF is better off but not by much. and fees+membership are grouped into the 24% now which XYF/JFIN used"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1979036813634187682)  2025-10-17T04:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@kiwi_mitch77 you are correct. the company themselves is still repurchasing shares. either they have a plan know something we dont or are blissfully unaware of the upcoming regulation. do we trust management im not sure. ill be asking $XYF soon about this stuff"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1979272096099213616)  2025-10-17T19:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@1lemonaday the guarantees only cover initial losses. for XYF i think its 20% so JFIN can facilitate like 130b in loans on RMB 7b in assets and 3b equity with very limited losses. However QFIN is like 60% on-bs with 300b facilitated on 24b equity. and they take 100% of the risk there"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1980400174762717553)  2025-10-20T22:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$CLS how is this not a short manufacturing co. with low margins low moat in cyclical boom trading at 50x FWD even if you get margin expansion and profits triple thats still 15x. This isnt a tech company. please help me understand $340/shr"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1982907301133725888)  2025-10-27T20:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$QFIN my timing is quite incredible"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1983167552860893604)  2025-10-28T13:42Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@pandawatch88 My punishment for buying $XYF [--] days before the tarrifs. To be met with exactly what i signed up for at 3x earnings. Down so bad im a community member now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1986290231377838185)  2025-11-06T04:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@RonStern_CFA @JackFarley96 imo capital heavy pure plays like coreweave should be concerning. cost of capital is really high given the business is highly cyclical future is uncertain and ops are low margin (compute focused not data/software integration-focused. will likely not have AWS margins)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1988762647211184342)  2025-11-13T00:15Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"$PGY $UPST these consumer credit linked ABS issuers are in the gutter. why not $CVNA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1990579824315019747)  2025-11-18T00:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@pandawatch88 I didnt take the hint when i bought $SVB [--] day before it went insolvent. another financials stock cursed by my presence but i think ill double down here (and the journey has been fun). glad i started these positions small"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1990957590264610898)  2025-11-19T01:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@0xMerridew 20x terminal is generous too. yes cuda gives a strong moat but its a cyclical semi at the end of the day. not some infinite +10% topline YoY SaaS (and those don't end well either)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1991296202336321935)  2025-11-20T00:03Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@multifolio International is strong. Higher take rate too. Those loans have insane APRs. At $5 i like it quite a bit"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1991406184977600580)  2025-11-20T07:20Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"$XYF similar story here. 31-60d delinquency is way up originations for Q4 (no 24%+) is 21-23b. so back to Q1-Q2 [----] levels but with tighter margins and higher provisions (and the guarantee business weighing on earnings as they scale it)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1991628697288515870)  2025-11-20T22:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@VuittonCapital Its an odd situation i think for Q4-Q2 they will have very low or no earnings. However they will come out of this positioned well and make a return to profitability. Likely more downside in the near term. Long run i still like it they will survive"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1991926629095153883)  2025-11-21T17:48Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@pandawatch88 I asked the question about the delinquencies. Was cool to be on an earnings call helps make up for the bag im holding"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1992651212278411282)  2025-11-23T17:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$HIFS Customer deposits 2.1b - 2.5b in [--] years while rates rose sure the NIM's are damaged (fixed-rate loan port) and can recover so you can argue its underearning but is there a customer acquisition problem here bank using more expensive FHLB advances to grow"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1995036182900871478)  2025-11-30T07:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@pandawatch88 I have always noticed this but never understood why. Chinese equities even the large ones and indexes trade like commodities with positive spot vol correlation. I dont get why"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/2001476425904427060)  2025-12-18T02:15Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"made this little dashboard for $QFIN"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/2006805159809372421)  2026-01-01T19:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"i talk alot about $XYF / $JFIN but i like $QFIN more now that i understand the current environment. They have a model that seems the most sustainable going forwards able to save their EBIT while maintaining compliance. turning into something closer to $ENVA. 4x 26e p/e too"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1983036902362988665)  2025-10-28T05:03Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"$xyf $qfin $finv Talked again with XYF management. upcoming slowdown is majority due to banks feeling uneasy about the regulation not the actual regulation. funding costs for xyf up from 4.5% last year to 6% right now. feeling confident overall these firms are doing fine"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1969909345027752120)  2025-09-21T23:39Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@masayoshisson I will add lufax to the sheet today. ive known about it for months but the general state of that business put me off till now. i think $finv deserves the highest multiple they have a very smooth track record and success in international markets. 10% yoy growth going fwd imo"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1972319990822175201)  2025-09-28T15:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Met with $XYF IR again - regulatory clarity end of oct not much happening besides funding cost increase. the real problem are increased reporting standards for unlisted small scammy lenders. $qfin $finv $jfin (also - xyf is a tad bit suspicious of jfin they dont disclose much)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1974226631766986794)  2025-10-03T21:34Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"spoke with $XYF again today. not much to add just understanding the business better. the more $qfin $finv $jfin fall the better they look. i'll add alot when they bottom out. already all a buy but ill wait. $tigr also catching my interest"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1976880165927240132)  2025-10-11T05:18Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@barsannny Sorry if i came off as being bearish on the others im not i like all of them frankly. (I may have thrown in the ticker tags in the wrong spot while running out of chars.) I like $XYF $QFIN $FINV $JFIN. And LX/YRD are ok but lower quality with problems"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1977030016027574397)  2025-10-11T15:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$QFIN been asked about analyst note - not good. "If 24%+ APR loans are fully phased out ICE will need to give up about half of its current loan volume." If QFIN loses 50% of their cap-light what happens to $jfin $XYF who are 80%+ capital light"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1979035936777240879)  2025-10-17T04:05Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"$QFIN also noted they do not see the any way around this 24% cap and have stopped offering 24%+ loans as of Q4. these companies have been through worse. hopefully they are able to find a way they have many times before"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1979037398269898822)  2025-10-17T04:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@terenceleong46 their model is closer to XYF (just larger and higher quality). I like $FINV for its international growth and its price has come down alot. They have a ton of cash (like 700m+ unrestricted) but never use it or pay it out for whatever reason. They should be alright"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1983975494908330401)  2025-10-30T19:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$FINV [----] FY rev guidance cut (basically just the last quarter) is quite bleak. 2555-3155m RMB vs the [----] they have done most of the other quarters. Doubt we see the lower bound of that but not good. besides that i see no glaring problems here"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1991271006648893449)  2025-11-19T22:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"To add: $FINV's guidance is a 5% band. used to be 10-15% growth for [----] now 0-5%. Given there is [--] Quarter left that is the number implied"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1991275276022493375)  2025-11-19T22:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@NycMsk How bad this gets i don't know. I agree QFIN/FINV should be ok in the long run. If defaults really are painful $JFIN $XYF $LX are in for some hell. JFIN especially with their wonderful management (lol)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1991286423849169222)  2025-11-19T23:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@AchillesDes @NycMsk Not a perfect view. Capital heavy is risk bearing but capital light has some hidden risk in the event banks force losses back to the originators even with no guarantee. QFIN and FINV disclose the split. Some others you have to guess. Jfin is a problematic one yes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1991516961231278512)  2025-11-20T14:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@JustinvestToday agreed. liked $XYF more when i knew less about the sector and it was a 3x earnings vs $finv / $qfin at 7-8x. Now you can get $QFIN at 2.3x and 4x fwd. letting $XYF rot for now once they make it through the chaos they could do very well"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1991581420419182999)  2025-11-20T18:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$CVNA valuation is mind boggling at 100b. Subprime lender. Not a fucking tech company what are we doing at 50x forward earnings The only miracles this company works are on their ABS demand"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1997587335316156681)  2025-12-07T08:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@VuittonCapital @milkfluencer I expect earnings to fall 75-125% remember the IRR on the 24%+ loans makes up more unit profit than sub 24%. then add credit provisioning and losses to that. $JFIN guided -75% EBIT for Q4. I own this for the management and the P/TBV"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1998228221767360789)  2025-12-09T03:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Regular shady companies trade at a "fraud discount". $CVNA has turned their fraud discount into a premium"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/1998978989122339320)  2025-12-11T04:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"only a matter of time before margin compression hits $mu $sndk $wdc. question is when [----] [----] [----] am not sure if its worth paying 10x peak cycle for these. this AI memory cartel cant last forever"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2000445764200210822)  2025-12-15T06:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Never a dull moment in low P/B microcap earnings calls ( $YRD [----] )"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2002574542854893977)  2025-12-21T02:59Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@1lemonaday Fair point especially on QFIN (although i heard from someone that they never restarted them which i cant verify dont have a terminal. Ill go ask rn) As for $FINV their repurchase volumes are lower and they seem to be holding up as well. we shall see in january"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/2003931210377318873)  2025-12-24T20:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$XYF As the facilitation business scales down equity should free up if they want to keep the same "leverage" ratio. XYF has a golden opportunity to drop $100m USD on a buyback and reduce the share count by like 1/3rd. buybacks were aggressive at $15. surely they love it at $5"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/2005448893107241083)  2025-12-29T01:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"given $XYF does not end up with vastly negative earnings or blow up that is. IMO unlikely but you never know at $240m market cap"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/2005449149664395616)  2025-12-29T01:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"this needs fixing forgot about a few things here that are misleading"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/2006828577053167850)  2026-01-01T20:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"will also note the P/E and P/EBIT figures all use today's price"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/2006946507208143207)  2026-01-02T04:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@DheerajNam the market is pricing the situation getting worse and these regulations are impacting the credit cycle so with provisions/credit losses earnings may go negative. i still like them because they are happy to repurchase shares and if they scale down it will free up cash"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/2009029765236170833)  2026-01-07T22:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@DheerajNam also if you look at the stock's history and its peers Qfin/Finv 3-5x earnings are the multiples these typically trade at. those [--] firms are also much stronger than XYF. They will be fine"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/2009030222218207513)  2026-01-07T22:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Since when did commodity businesses like optics and contract manufacturers trade at upwards of 50x fwd. how far downstream are these future AI profits going to trickle"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/2009380853051281576)  2026-01-08T21:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$team makes great software that customers generally enjoy. But the SBC is absurd. Remember fwd p/e on most SaaS is an adjusted figure 20x is misleading. You will not see shareholder yield for a while"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2013403434720899195)  2026-01-20T00:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Ragebait elon into a hostile takeover at a steep premium. I like it. .@elonmusk https://t.co/c0rHEiJrIz .@elonmusk https://t.co/c0rHEiJrIz"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/2013826538576191699)  2026-01-21T04:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@yieldchad Depreciation is a factor of compute efficiency gains. You assume in [--] years a H100 will be 60% as useful as it is today Should be closer to 30%. Ever increasing demand and nvda margins have kept prices up from 2022-2025. however that wont comtinue forever"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/2016417096595370414)  2026-01-28T07:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"For every $ added to revenue via price increases 70% shows up in NI. If prices stay in line with consumer DRAM (+250%) 10x sales is 5x peak earnings can someone please explain how selling commoditized RAM sticks are worth 10x revenue short $SNDK https://t.co/RPNUGZlxvd can someone please explain how selling commoditized RAM sticks are worth 10x revenue short $SNDK https://t.co/RPNUGZlxvd"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jdmsparky/status/2016989907110047769)  2026-01-29T21:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

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