[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.] #  @charliemansell Charlie Mansell Charlie Mansell posts on X about powell, has been the most. They currently have XXXXX followers and 1796 posts still getting attention that total XXXXX engagements in the last XX hours. ### Engagements: XXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::14472234/interactions)  - X Week XXXXX +21% - X Month XXXXXX +22% - X Months XXXXXXX -XXXX% - X Year XXXXXXX -XX% ### Mentions: XX [#](/creator/twitter::14472234/posts_active)  - X Year XXX -XXXX% ### Followers: XXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::14472234/followers)  - X Week XXXXX +0.25% - X Month XXXXX +2% - X Months XXXXX +7.70% - X Year XXXXX +8.30% ### CreatorRank: XXXXXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::14472234/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence [#](/creator/twitter::14472234/influence) --- **Social category influence** [finance](/list/finance) [currencies](/list/currencies) **Social topic influence** [powell](/topic/powell), [has been](/topic/has-been) ### Top Social Posts [#](/creator/twitter::14472234/posts) --- Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours "@Will___lloyd X. Depends how you count it. Parties have a Total inc arrears & a paid up total for elections. For example the Greens have 4k arrears as 84k voted in their leader election and 88k membs were reported at the time" [X Link](https://x.com/charliemansell/status/1980612133772484910) [@charliemansell](/creator/x/charliemansell) 2025-10-21T12:28Z 4714 followers, XXX engagements "@electpoliticsuk This assumes Team Zarah will want to waste resources on a campaign when Jeremy Corbyn in the first year may be quickly "lame-ducked" by Zack Polanski and she focuses on a year X or X takeover later. Interesting to see if Zarah Sultana becomes the Andy Burnham of Your Party" [X Link](https://x.com/charliemansell/status/1980620892066500738) [@charliemansell](/creator/x/charliemansell) 2025-10-21T13:03Z 4717 followers, XXX engagements "@SamBarnesNS @DisabilityLab @SocialistHealth @labourunionsuk @unitetheunion @unisontheunion @ASLEFunion @fbunational @TSSAunion @SocialistEdu @LucyMPowell @ESEA4Labour @SocLabLaw @JewishLabour @bphillipsonMP @LabourList @YouGov @FindoutnowUK @X @UKLabour XXX. Deputy Leader Update. A key point in the model is once we have the overall result & with a lot of member data we can recalculate the TU vote score to come up with a final estimate for it which will then be useful in future elections" [X Link](https://x.com/charliemansell/status/1980638871856857580) [@charliemansell](/creator/x/charliemansell) 2025-10-21T14:14Z 4715 followers, XX engagements "@SamBarnesNS @DisabilityLab @SocialistHealth @labourunionsuk @unitetheunion @unisontheunion @ASLEFunion @fbunational @TSSAunion @SocialistEdu @LucyMPowell @ESEA4Labour @SocLabLaw @JewishLabour @bphillipsonMP @LabourList @YouGov @FindoutnowUK @X @UKLabour XXX. Deputy Leader Update. What can be said is if Lucy Powell does tie a low t/o union vote as per the model then her pretty heavily evidenced lead among membs in polls and CLP noms wd mean there wd be no models indicating a Bridget Phillipson win anymore" [X Link](https://x.com/charliemansell/status/1980640213698506952) [@charliemansell](/creator/x/charliemansell) 2025-10-21T14:20Z 4717 followers, XXX engagements "@SamBarnesNS @DisabilityLab @SocialistHealth @labourunionsuk @unitetheunion @unisontheunion @ASLEFunion @fbunational @TSSAunion @SocialistEdu @LucyMPowell @ESEA4Labour @SocLabLaw @JewishLabour @bphillipsonMP @LabourList @YouGov @FindoutnowUK @X @UKLabour XXX. Deputy Leader Update. To b fair on all this I will add a few more models with different assumptions soon so when we get the result we can use the data there to drill back down and adjust the most accurate model to give a reasonable detaild assessment of what the vote meant" [X Link](https://x.com/charliemansell/status/1981317497535013264) [@charliemansell](/creator/x/charliemansell) 2025-10-23T11:11Z 4720 followers, XXX engagements "@SamBarnesNS @DisabilityLab @SocialistHealth @labourunionsuk @unitetheunion @unisontheunion @ASLEFunion @fbunational @TSSAunion @SocialistEdu @LucyMPowell @ESEA4Labour @SocLabLaw @JewishLabour @bphillipsonMP @LabourList @YouGov @FindoutnowUK @X @UKLabour XXX. Deputy Leader Update. One thing we cannot yet assess until we get the result is the comparative "ground game" (as opposed to "air war") of the X campaigns as that may impact on it. So far (eg CLP nominations) there is no evidence of any big disparity" [X Link](https://x.com/charliemansell/status/1981320422244180316) [@charliemansell](/creator/x/charliemansell) 2025-10-23T11:22Z 4720 followers, XXX engagements "@AnnaCMcShane Whilst the member vote looks clear after all polls & CLP noms various models one can create make it unclear who the up to XX% of the vote who may be the TU political levy payer vote will go except for using past behaviour which could still have changed" [X Link](https://x.com/charliemansell/status/1981396149455245336) [@charliemansell](/creator/x/charliemansell) 2025-10-23T16:23Z 4719 followers, XX engagements "@SamBarnesNS @DisabilityLab @SocialistHealth @labourunionsuk @unitetheunion @unisontheunion @ASLEFunion @fbunational @TSSAunion @SocialistEdu @LucyMPowell @ESEA4Labour @SocLabLaw @JewishLabour @bphillipsonMP @LabourList @YouGov @FindoutnowUK @X @UKLabour XXX. Deputy Leader update. Whilst "Labour sources" suggest a closer result they r not yet claiming change in assumed outcome. However @EthanCroft98 has set out what I earlier described as the Phillipson "path to victory"" [X Link](https://x.com/charliemansell/status/1981684317974835205) [@charliemansell](/creator/x/charliemansell) 2025-10-24T11:28Z 4719 followers, XXX engagements "@SamBarnesNS @DisabilityLab @SocialistHealth @labourunionsuk @unitetheunion @unisontheunion @ASLEFunion @fbunational @TSSAunion @SocialistEdu @LucyMPowell @ESEA4Labour @SocLabLaw @JewishLabour @bphillipsonMP @LabourList @YouGov @FindoutnowUK @X @UKLabour @EthanCroft98 XXX. Deputy leader update. "Close Result Model 7" uses YouGov/CLP Noms est 56%-44% (4% closer than Survation) Powell memb lead but with 55%-45% Phillipson TU lead producing Powell 51%-49% result. If Phillipson got XX% of TU vote in model she wd win by 51%" [X Link](https://x.com/charliemansell/status/1981687806218109005) [@charliemansell](/creator/x/charliemansell) 2025-10-24T11:42Z 4720 followers, XXX engagements "@SamBarnesNS @DisabilityLab @SocialistHealth @labourunionsuk @unitetheunion @unisontheunion @ASLEFunion @fbunational @TSSAunion @SocialistEdu @LucyMPowell @ESEA4Labour @SocLabLaw @JewishLabour @bphillipsonMP @LabourList @YouGov @FindoutnowUK @X @UKLabour @EthanCroft98 @UnitePolitics XXX. Deputy leader update. A reason X can only model with past data & variables & not predict election is gen lack of electorate data. In most elections this wd b seen as quite strange so X might think @labourunionsuk wd want more transparancy in future" [X Link](https://x.com/charliemansell/status/1981697921507799215) [@charliemansell](/creator/x/charliemansell) 2025-10-24T12:22Z 4719 followers, XXX engagements "@SamBarnesNS @DisabilityLab @SocialistHealth @labourunionsuk @unitetheunion @unisontheunion @ASLEFunion @fbunational @TSSAunion @SocialistEdu @LucyMPowell @ESEA4Labour @SocLabLaw @JewishLabour @bphillipsonMP @LabourList @YouGov @FindoutnowUK @X @UKLabour @EthanCroft98 @UnitePolitics XXX. Deputy leader update. As I have said b4 whethr Lab memb is 180k (2007-2010) 240k-280k 309k or 550k a key element of its "institutional resilience" is 1.4m @labourunionsuk levy payers & TU XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% on X main Lab bodies & XX% on Regions/LGCs & XX% on CLP ECs" [X Link](https://x.com/charliemansell/status/1981700790919336377) [@charliemansell](/creator/x/charliemansell) 2025-10-24T12:34Z 4719 followers, XXX engagements "@BNHWalker I imagine the contact rate was a bit higher than the South Shields by-election starting X% No wonder there has been a shift to more regional level panel interviewing nowadays. It's not just about due diligence but also about voter engagement" [X Link](https://x.com/charliemansell/status/1981711934148743218) [@charliemansell](/creator/x/charliemansell) 2025-10-24T13:18Z 4720 followers, XXX engagements "@SamBarnesNS @DisabilityLab @SocialistHealth @labourunionsuk @unitetheunion @unisontheunion @ASLEFunion @fbunational @TSSAunion @SocialistEdu @LucyMPowell @ESEA4Labour @SocLabLaw @JewishLabour @bphillipsonMP @LabourList @YouGov @FindoutnowUK @X @UKLabour @EthanCroft98 @UnitePolitics XXX. Deputy Leader update. If we r cautious & add Survation's extra X% to t/o models that might mean 18k more memb voting & up to X% more of final vote compared to TU t/o model. However we do not know TU t/o so it cd b that is higher X in a higher t/o election" [X Link](https://x.com/charliemansell/status/1981817027443793942) [@charliemansell](/creator/x/charliemansell) 2025-10-24T20:16Z 4721 followers, XX engagements "@SamBarnesNS @DisabilityLab @SocialistHealth @labourunionsuk @unitetheunion @unisontheunion @ASLEFunion @fbunational @TSSAunion @SocialistEdu @LucyMPowell @ESEA4Labour @SocLabLaw @JewishLabour @bphillipsonMP @LabourList @YouGov @FindoutnowUK @X @UKLabour @EthanCroft98 @UnitePolitics XXX. Deputy Leader update. Since Lucy Powell has led in all X polls & CLP noms too so 17k extra memb vote wd look X benefit her. One final caveat is that in 2010 Poll overestimated Ed Miliband memb vote by X% however more accurate in 2015 2016 & 2020" [X Link](https://x.com/charliemansell/status/1981820364914327722) [@charliemansell](/creator/x/charliemansell) 2025-10-24T20:29Z 4720 followers, XXX engagements
[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]
@charliemansell Charlie Mansell
Charlie Mansell posts on X about powell, has been the most. They currently have XXXXX followers and 1796 posts still getting attention that total XXXXX engagements in the last XX hours.
Engagements: XXXXX #
- X Week XXXXX +21%
- X Month XXXXXX +22%
- X Months XXXXXXX -XXXX%
- X Year XXXXXXX -XX%
Mentions: XX #
- X Year XXX -XXXX%
Followers: XXXXX #
- X Week XXXXX +0.25%
- X Month XXXXX +2%
- X Months XXXXX +7.70%
- X Year XXXXX +8.30%
CreatorRank: XXXXXXXXX #
Social Influence #
Social category influence finance currencies
Social topic influence powell, has been
Top Social Posts #
Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours
"@Will___lloyd X. Depends how you count it. Parties have a Total inc arrears & a paid up total for elections. For example the Greens have 4k arrears as 84k voted in their leader election and 88k membs were reported at the time"
X Link @charliemansell 2025-10-21T12:28Z 4714 followers, XXX engagements
"@electpoliticsuk This assumes Team Zarah will want to waste resources on a campaign when Jeremy Corbyn in the first year may be quickly "lame-ducked" by Zack Polanski and she focuses on a year X or X takeover later. Interesting to see if Zarah Sultana becomes the Andy Burnham of Your Party"
X Link @charliemansell 2025-10-21T13:03Z 4717 followers, XXX engagements
"@SamBarnesNS @DisabilityLab @SocialistHealth @labourunionsuk @unitetheunion @unisontheunion @ASLEFunion @fbunational @TSSAunion @SocialistEdu @LucyMPowell @ESEA4Labour @SocLabLaw @JewishLabour @bphillipsonMP @LabourList @YouGov @FindoutnowUK @X @UKLabour XXX. Deputy Leader Update. A key point in the model is once we have the overall result & with a lot of member data we can recalculate the TU vote score to come up with a final estimate for it which will then be useful in future elections"
X Link @charliemansell 2025-10-21T14:14Z 4715 followers, XX engagements
"@SamBarnesNS @DisabilityLab @SocialistHealth @labourunionsuk @unitetheunion @unisontheunion @ASLEFunion @fbunational @TSSAunion @SocialistEdu @LucyMPowell @ESEA4Labour @SocLabLaw @JewishLabour @bphillipsonMP @LabourList @YouGov @FindoutnowUK @X @UKLabour XXX. Deputy Leader Update. What can be said is if Lucy Powell does tie a low t/o union vote as per the model then her pretty heavily evidenced lead among membs in polls and CLP noms wd mean there wd be no models indicating a Bridget Phillipson win anymore"
X Link @charliemansell 2025-10-21T14:20Z 4717 followers, XXX engagements
"@SamBarnesNS @DisabilityLab @SocialistHealth @labourunionsuk @unitetheunion @unisontheunion @ASLEFunion @fbunational @TSSAunion @SocialistEdu @LucyMPowell @ESEA4Labour @SocLabLaw @JewishLabour @bphillipsonMP @LabourList @YouGov @FindoutnowUK @X @UKLabour XXX. Deputy Leader Update. To b fair on all this I will add a few more models with different assumptions soon so when we get the result we can use the data there to drill back down and adjust the most accurate model to give a reasonable detaild assessment of what the vote meant"
X Link @charliemansell 2025-10-23T11:11Z 4720 followers, XXX engagements
"@SamBarnesNS @DisabilityLab @SocialistHealth @labourunionsuk @unitetheunion @unisontheunion @ASLEFunion @fbunational @TSSAunion @SocialistEdu @LucyMPowell @ESEA4Labour @SocLabLaw @JewishLabour @bphillipsonMP @LabourList @YouGov @FindoutnowUK @X @UKLabour XXX. Deputy Leader Update. One thing we cannot yet assess until we get the result is the comparative "ground game" (as opposed to "air war") of the X campaigns as that may impact on it. So far (eg CLP nominations) there is no evidence of any big disparity"
X Link @charliemansell 2025-10-23T11:22Z 4720 followers, XXX engagements
"@AnnaCMcShane Whilst the member vote looks clear after all polls & CLP noms various models one can create make it unclear who the up to XX% of the vote who may be the TU political levy payer vote will go except for using past behaviour which could still have changed"
X Link @charliemansell 2025-10-23T16:23Z 4719 followers, XX engagements
"@SamBarnesNS @DisabilityLab @SocialistHealth @labourunionsuk @unitetheunion @unisontheunion @ASLEFunion @fbunational @TSSAunion @SocialistEdu @LucyMPowell @ESEA4Labour @SocLabLaw @JewishLabour @bphillipsonMP @LabourList @YouGov @FindoutnowUK @X @UKLabour XXX. Deputy Leader update. Whilst "Labour sources" suggest a closer result they r not yet claiming change in assumed outcome. However @EthanCroft98 has set out what I earlier described as the Phillipson "path to victory""
X Link @charliemansell 2025-10-24T11:28Z 4719 followers, XXX engagements
"@SamBarnesNS @DisabilityLab @SocialistHealth @labourunionsuk @unitetheunion @unisontheunion @ASLEFunion @fbunational @TSSAunion @SocialistEdu @LucyMPowell @ESEA4Labour @SocLabLaw @JewishLabour @bphillipsonMP @LabourList @YouGov @FindoutnowUK @X @UKLabour @EthanCroft98 XXX. Deputy leader update. "Close Result Model 7" uses YouGov/CLP Noms est 56%-44% (4% closer than Survation) Powell memb lead but with 55%-45% Phillipson TU lead producing Powell 51%-49% result. If Phillipson got XX% of TU vote in model she wd win by 51%"
X Link @charliemansell 2025-10-24T11:42Z 4720 followers, XXX engagements
"@SamBarnesNS @DisabilityLab @SocialistHealth @labourunionsuk @unitetheunion @unisontheunion @ASLEFunion @fbunational @TSSAunion @SocialistEdu @LucyMPowell @ESEA4Labour @SocLabLaw @JewishLabour @bphillipsonMP @LabourList @YouGov @FindoutnowUK @X @UKLabour @EthanCroft98 @UnitePolitics XXX. Deputy leader update. A reason X can only model with past data & variables & not predict election is gen lack of electorate data. In most elections this wd b seen as quite strange so X might think @labourunionsuk wd want more transparancy in future"
X Link @charliemansell 2025-10-24T12:22Z 4719 followers, XXX engagements
"@SamBarnesNS @DisabilityLab @SocialistHealth @labourunionsuk @unitetheunion @unisontheunion @ASLEFunion @fbunational @TSSAunion @SocialistEdu @LucyMPowell @ESEA4Labour @SocLabLaw @JewishLabour @bphillipsonMP @LabourList @YouGov @FindoutnowUK @X @UKLabour @EthanCroft98 @UnitePolitics XXX. Deputy leader update. As I have said b4 whethr Lab memb is 180k (2007-2010) 240k-280k 309k or 550k a key element of its "institutional resilience" is 1.4m @labourunionsuk levy payers & TU XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% on X main Lab bodies & XX% on Regions/LGCs & XX% on CLP ECs"
X Link @charliemansell 2025-10-24T12:34Z 4719 followers, XXX engagements
"@BNHWalker I imagine the contact rate was a bit higher than the South Shields by-election starting X% No wonder there has been a shift to more regional level panel interviewing nowadays. It's not just about due diligence but also about voter engagement"
X Link @charliemansell 2025-10-24T13:18Z 4720 followers, XXX engagements
"@SamBarnesNS @DisabilityLab @SocialistHealth @labourunionsuk @unitetheunion @unisontheunion @ASLEFunion @fbunational @TSSAunion @SocialistEdu @LucyMPowell @ESEA4Labour @SocLabLaw @JewishLabour @bphillipsonMP @LabourList @YouGov @FindoutnowUK @X @UKLabour @EthanCroft98 @UnitePolitics XXX. Deputy Leader update. If we r cautious & add Survation's extra X% to t/o models that might mean 18k more memb voting & up to X% more of final vote compared to TU t/o model. However we do not know TU t/o so it cd b that is higher X in a higher t/o election"
X Link @charliemansell 2025-10-24T20:16Z 4721 followers, XX engagements
"@SamBarnesNS @DisabilityLab @SocialistHealth @labourunionsuk @unitetheunion @unisontheunion @ASLEFunion @fbunational @TSSAunion @SocialistEdu @LucyMPowell @ESEA4Labour @SocLabLaw @JewishLabour @bphillipsonMP @LabourList @YouGov @FindoutnowUK @X @UKLabour @EthanCroft98 @UnitePolitics XXX. Deputy Leader update. Since Lucy Powell has led in all X polls & CLP noms too so 17k extra memb vote wd look X benefit her. One final caveat is that in 2010 Poll overestimated Ed Miliband memb vote by X% however more accurate in 2015 2016 & 2020"
X Link @charliemansell 2025-10-24T20:29Z 4720 followers, XXX engagements