# ![@blueoutliercap Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::1433023443075805185.png) @blueoutliercap Ryan Rahinsky

Ryan Rahinsky posts on X about $geo, $ceix, $cxw, $elf the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [---] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::1433023443075805185/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1433023443075805185/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [------] +217%
- [--] Month [------] +23%
- [--] Months [----------] -53%
- [--] Year [----------] +273%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1433023443075805185/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1433023443075805185/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- [--] Week [--] +86%
- [--] Month [--] -17%
- [--] Months [--] +19%
- [--] Year [--] +16%

### Followers: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1433023443075805185/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1433023443075805185/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- [--] Week [-----] +0.06%
- [--] Month [-----] +0.18%
- [--] Months [-----] +13%
- [--] Year [-----] +21%

### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::1433023443075805185/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1433023443075805185/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[finance](/list/finance)  28.97% [stocks](/list/stocks)  14.95% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  10.28% [countries](/list/countries)  8.41% [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands)  2.8% [luxury brands](/list/luxury-brands)  0.93% [social networks](/list/social-networks)  0.93% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  0.93%

**Social topic influence**
[$geo](/topic/$geo) #8, [$ceix](/topic/$ceix) 12.15%, [$cxw](/topic/$cxw) #1, [$elf](/topic/$elf) #16, [$flr](/topic/$flr) 6.54%, [in the](/topic/in-the) 6.54%, [$hnrg](/topic/$hnrg) 6.54%, [$smr](/topic/$smr) 5.61%, [flr](/topic/flr) 5.61%, [business](/topic/business) 5.61%

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@dyer440](/creator/undefined) [@bennpeifert](/creator/undefined) [@orrdavid](/creator/undefined) [@energycredit1](/creator/undefined) [@elfcosmetics](/creator/undefined) [@lingmerthstefan](/creator/undefined) [@hkuppy](/creator/undefined) [@paulomacro](/creator/undefined) [@resetbasis](/creator/undefined) [@wtibull](/creator/undefined) [@ideabrunchemail](/creator/undefined) [@stockjabber](/creator/undefined) [@ardaarkun](/creator/undefined) [@mfwarder](/creator/undefined) [@aggresivevalue](/creator/undefined) [@puppyeh1](/creator/undefined) [@sprucepointcap](/creator/undefined) [@andrewrangeley](/creator/undefined) [@johnhempton](/creator/undefined) [@tylerdurden](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO)](/topic/$geo) [CONSOL Energy Inc. (CEIX)](/topic/$ceix) [CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW)](/topic/$cxw) [aelf (ELF)](/topic/$elf) [Flare (FLR)](/topic/$flr) [NuScale Power Corporation (SMR)](/topic/$smr) [Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (AMR)](/topic/$amr) [Yum China Holdings, Inc. Common Stock (YUMC)](/topic/$yumc) [Morgan Stanley (MS)](/topic/morgan-stanley) [Burford Capital Limited (BUR)](/topic/$bur) [Team Heretics Fan Token (TH)](/topic/$th) [The Duckhorn Portfolio, Inc. (NAPA)](/topic/$napa) [Cornerstone Building Brands, Inc. (CNR)](/topic/$cnr) [Iris Energy Limited (IREN)](/topic/$iren)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"Jimmy Brock is a national treasure $CEIX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1707447421792330135)  2023-09-28T17:29Z [----] followers, 50.8K engagements


"$CXW call made it sound like they're shopping for assets. $TH seems like the logical target with their existing relationship and they highlighted them positively a couple of times on the call. Wouldn't shock me if something is done here eventually"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1889689015957303802)  2025-02-12T14:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$FLR $SMR big news https://www.nuscalepower.com/press-releases/2025/fluor-and-nuscale-announce-agreement-regarding-stake-monetization https://www.nuscalepower.com/press-releases/2025/fluor-and-nuscale-announce-agreement-regarding-stake-monetization"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1986556332829495424)  2025-11-06T22:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$GEO $CXW Finally new ICE data. Detention numbers sitting at all time highs and growing quickly arrests over the last two months smashing through all time highs by a significant margin and higher cost ankle monitoring continuing to be the priority while ATD numbers are relatively stable around 182k. With these arrest and detention numbers I continue to believe its a matter of time until all available bed capacity is met forcing greater ATD participation. Also still think theres a small chance supervision gets eventually broadened to the non-detained docket. The divergence between the share"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1991890933739077809)  2025-11-21T15:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$GEO $CXW CBS reporting that the number as of yesterday is [-----]. Thats [----] added in a month still going vertical. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ices-detainee-population-record-high-of-73000/ New data out yesterday. [-----] in ICE detention on Dec 12th up from [-----] on November [--]. Still going vertical. $GEO $CXW https://t.co/DTunqK7K7A https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ices-detainee-population-record-high-of-73000/ New data out yesterday. [-----] in ICE detention on Dec 12th up from [-----] on November [--]. Still going vertical. $GEO $CXW https://t.co/DTunqK7K7A"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2012336031509500117)  2026-01-17T01:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$ELF quarter is indefensible. Current management not the ones to fix it. Seemingly thinking they're still in growth mode with SG&A exploding with little growth to show for it. Guidance was atrocious for their core ELF brand they should be accelerating international rollout and cutting back on marketing in the US where they're already well known and established if the brand is mature domestically. No real evidence the price hike went to the bottom line but seems like some pricing was slow to kick in so maybe this is a bit delayed. Guidance for ELF under price hike seems to suggest there's some"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1986466399460442335)  2025-11-06T16:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"New data out yesterday. [-----] in ICE detention on Dec 12th up from [-----] on November [--]. Still going vertical. $GEO $CXW"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2003540152237588498)  2025-12-23T18:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$GEO $CXW "Homan said the number of arrests will increase sharply as ICE hires more officers and expands detention capacity with the new funding. 'I think you're going to see the numbers explode greatly next year' Homan said. Homan said the plans absolutely include more enforcement actions at workplaces." https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-set-expand-immigration-crackdown-2026-despite-brewing-backlash-2025-12-21/ https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-set-expand-immigration-crackdown-2026-despite-brewing-backlash-2025-12-21/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2004943235517501743)  2025-12-27T15:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$GEO $CXW Border Czar Homan said in his interview yesterday that they're arresting [----] people a day on average. https://youtu.be/FfNyXDupcDssi=nmUM2uNU6GZOQAyF https://youtu.be/FfNyXDupcDssi=nmUM2uNU6GZOQAyF"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2009293966986948618)  2026-01-08T15:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"When the Nazis find your post and start posting Nazi propaganda in agreement maybe theres a problem Ladies and Gentlemen I present to you your new Federal Reserve Chairman: Ronald Lauder -Heir to the Este Lauder fortune -College Friend of Msr Trump -Ex Ambassador to Austria -President of the World Jewish Congress Ronald's daughter Jane Lauder is married to https://t.co/Bw24jTnyzy Ladies and Gentlemen I present to you your new Federal Reserve Chairman: Ronald Lauder -Heir to the Este Lauder fortune -College Friend of Msr Trump -Ex Ambassador to Austria -President of the World Jewish Congress"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/2017217752784568718)  2026-01-30T12:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$ELF on the subject of wasting marketing spend was a superbowl ad (and a bad one at that) a good use of capital for their target audience Between this and the full page NYT print ad who are they marketing to I exited last year but what a negative turn this has taken. Price increase was obviously not accepted as much as expected unit volume significantly negative. CEO took it defensively on the call when asked how they reaccelerate ELF growth thinks hes beyond reproach. Management won't even break out ELF / Rhode international anymore because ELF international has been significantly negative"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2020905505104015763)  2026-02-09T16:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$GEO $CXW this reads like DHS is trying to replace the contractors with their own warehouse type solution. If this comes to fruition GEO and CXW look more like a bimodal situation than anything. They're either selling the government the facilities (cheaper longer lasting specifically designed for this use and turnkey) or being replaced with more expensive and less humane retrofitted warehouse based detention. Either way the thesis changes dramatically if ICE is trying to do it themselves. GEO/CXW management need to convince DHS to buy their facilities."  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/2022415840474259602)  2026-02-13T21:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"If this goes through DHS spends $380k per bed for retrofitted warehouses. Would be an incredible waste of money for a very subpar solution. They could buy GEO/CXW's turnkey facilities that are specifically designed for this for a fraction of the cost. Seems like the future of the businesses rests on them convincing DHS to buy their facilities. The plan should sell itself compared to the warehouse solution but if this doesn't happen GEO/CXW could be in for a world of pain as their biggest customer leaves them and strands their assets. On the other hand $380k a bed for retrofitted warehouses"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/2022778015558598851)  2026-02-14T21:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@dyer440 Thanks Mohnish"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1690087904704352256)  2023-08-11T19:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"This. Doesn't take too much if you bootstrap the launch and are diligent about keeping costs low. Results bring attention. Focus more on returns and less on raising and things fall in place"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1751729383260176685)  2024-01-28T22:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$GEO what stands out to me"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1754312609308770681)  2024-02-05T01:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Happy to discuss. Agree with you that most market makers are quants trying their best with their models and algorithms to do this at scale. That's the opportunity. The variables they take into consideration at scale (most importantly historical/implied vol) not being the ones that really matter for the stock/situation over the life of the long-term term option. Vast majority of option volume is short-term and those are priced pretty efficiently so they don't really worry about the long-term inefficiencies. These models assume a normal distribution of outcomes as well. Sometimes you can find"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1759931271793254500)  2024-02-20T13:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@orrdavid Bullish YouTube bearish Netflix"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1803858885867950094)  2024-06-20T18:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"I had a great time attending and presenting at ValueX Vail. Great experience with an incredible group of people. I presented on the opportunity in coal and the transformation of Consol Energy $CEIX I look forward to attending again in the future"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1805263992987803734)  2024-06-24T15:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"AMRING my favorite https://t.co/VzaauzmimF https://t.co/VzaauzmimF"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1807209332594921853)  2024-06-30T00:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Showing again why they're best in the business $CEIX Jimmy Brock is a national treasure $CEIX https://t.co/I82Crqw9Rz Jimmy Brock is a national treasure $CEIX https://t.co/I82Crqw9Rz"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1821538694701920693)  2024-08-08T13:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$GEO suffering from Trump odds reversing but seems overblown. Harris said yesterday at her rally that she'll be tough on the border and supports Bidens proposal that would have been very beneficial to GEO. She also released a new campaign ad that had media outlets calling her a border hawk. Sure Trump would likely be much better but the share price doesn't belong here no matter who's next in the White House. Immigration and border security is becoming bipartisan. https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/09/harris-promises-to-go-tough-on-border-security-00173485"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1822290722503946637)  2024-08-10T15:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$ELF This being sold on guidance is an opportunity. "Our approach on guidance I should mention is a pretty conservative approach. If you look back over five and a half years we usually take a very balanced view one quarter at a time. For example last year I think our initial guidance was something like 22-24% growth and we delivered 71% growth." Early innings of geographic expansion where they're often debuting as the #1 brand. Long runway of growth ahead. Elf Beauty getting hit today despite a beat and a raise. CEO Tarang Amin says the company takes a cautious approach to guidance but he's"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1823078491539091615)  2024-08-12T19:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$GEO Founder and Executive Chairman with an additional 250k shares purchased. $GEO suffering from Trump odds reversing but seems overblown. Harris said yesterday at her rally that she'll be tough on the border and supports Bidens proposal that would have been very beneficial to GEO. She also released a new campaign ad that had media outlets calling her a $GEO suffering from Trump odds reversing but seems overblown. Harris said yesterday at her rally that she'll be tough on the border and supports Bidens proposal that would have been very beneficial to GEO. She also released a new campaign ad"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1823688793607553228)  2024-08-14T11:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$GEO $CXW Harris says she supports Bidens border bill and would sign it. Takes the severe downside case out of the prison companies this is likely as bad as it gets for them no matter who wins. Border security has become bipartisan"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1829327911079354758)  2024-08-30T01:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$ELF High margin high growth business with a long growth runway going for a reasonable valuation. Theyre an asset light company similar in business model to Coke. Theyve been taking a patient approach with their international expansion which seems to have been the correct strategy judging by their success in entering new markets in a dominant position. Only in a handful of countries right now with another few planned they have a long international growth runway ahead. They dont want to grow so fast that their existing partners suffer but should growth in their existing markets slow theyll"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1834227155938484569)  2024-09-12T13:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Everyone hated it at $30 but seem to love it at $50. Glad management took advantage to retire shares. $YUMC Share price weakness this year has surprised me but doesn't seem fundamentally warranted. Management taking full advantage by retiring shares over 5% of shares retired YTD. Share price weakness this year has surprised me but doesn't seem fundamentally warranted. Management taking full advantage by retiring shares over 5% of shares retired YTD"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1841629721861177818)  2024-10-03T00:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$NAPA good things have a tendency of happening to cheap assets"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1843253587969036653)  2024-10-07T11:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"The monsters we're up against. Good vs evil. Right before committing this mornings Stabbing Attack in the Northern Israeli City of Hadera the Terrorist who was armed with an Axe and a Knife attempted to enter a Kindergarten which was thankfully Locked. https://t.co/8oPO1bRVPi Right before committing this mornings Stabbing Attack in the Northern Israeli City of Hadera the Terrorist who was armed with an Axe and a Knife attempted to enter a Kindergarten which was thankfully Locked. https://t.co/8oPO1bRVPi"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1844100265722642474)  2024-10-09T19:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Republicans sweep up to 47% on polymarket. No one owns enough $GEO in that scenario"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1849446179546771519)  2024-10-24T13:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"70% Republicans sweep up to 47% on polymarket. No one owns enough $GEO in that scenario. Republicans sweep up to 47% on polymarket. No one owns enough $GEO in that scenario"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1853987503885160600)  2024-11-06T02:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Republicans sweep up to 97%. Although I expect this to be volatile this isn't a short-term trade imo. With a sweep Trump has his mandate which includes locking down the border and mass deportations. $GEO will likely have a large earnings inflection which should allow them to hit their leverage target and pivot to buybacks expeditiously. Republicans sweep up to 47% on polymarket. No one owns enough $GEO in that scenario. Republicans sweep up to 47% on polymarket. No one owns enough $GEO in that scenario"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1854152318700154995)  2024-11-06T13:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$GEO The bull case highlighted from quotes from the earnings call yesterday. I think to speak in generalities; were looking at a theoretical potential doubling of all of our services whether its in the detention segment in the transportation segment as well as the ISAP program. (The previous version of the House Homeland Security Appropriations Bill) would have also required the use of electronic GPS monitoring for all individuals in the non-detained docket (of illegal immigrants awaiting court proceedings) which is currently estimated to be more than [--] million people. (current participant"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1854897171344015632)  2024-11-08T14:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$ELF management responds strongly: "Muddy Waters has made numerous inaccurate statements about e.l.f. Beauty and our business by relying upon incomplete data and flawed assumptions omitting critical context and presenting speculation as fact. In particular in early [----] for competitive reasons and as permitted by applicable regulations we filed a request for confidentiality withU.S.Customs and Border Protection with respect to our customs import data. Therefore import data available to the public after February [--] [----] does not include a substantial majority of our actualU.S.imports. Further"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1859574264745095672)  2024-11-21T12:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@LingmerthStefan @hkuppy @PauloMacro I'm more saying that the Ukraine invasion was the tide that lifted all boats in O&G and across commodities in general. Hard to say how the equity would have performed without this"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1865879735315673358)  2024-12-08T22:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$HNRG "If the Company is successful in executing definitive agreements and once the transaction commences it is expected to contract the majority of the Companys energy and capacity at prices higher than the forward curve for more than a decade." https://halladorenergy.com/news-events/news/news-details/2025/Hallador-Energy-Signs-Exclusive-Commitment-Agreement-with-Global-Data-Center-Developer/default.aspx https://halladorenergy.com/news-events/news/news-details/2025/Hallador-Energy-Signs-Exclusive-Commitment-Agreement-with-Global-Data-Center-Developer/default.aspx"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1876637002889834598)  2025-01-07T14:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"If $ELF doesn't capitalize on their international success by ramping up their expansion I think its possible someone else could do it for them. A global competitor who they've been eating market share from could acquire the company and use their infrastructure to quickly expand globally. Would provide a long growth runway to the legacy acquirer at an attractive valuation and take out a competitor that's been eating into your business domestically before they do too much damage internationally. $ELF No new country expansion announcements in two quarters now. The fact they have growth slowing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1887906611974279288)  2025-02-07T16:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$CEIX $CNR would be at least 50% higher if they never did the deal. European natural gas benchmark TTF surges above [--] per MWh put it in oil terms it has reached ***the $100 per barrel of oil equivalent level***. Absolutely destructive for energy-intensive manufacturing. European natural gas benchmark TTF surges above [--] per MWh put it in oil terms it has reached ***the $100 per barrel of oil equivalent level***. Absolutely destructive for energy-intensive manufacturing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1888957109603049858)  2025-02-10T14:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$HNRG Could the US coal industry make a comeback The power source may be finding a second wind amid swelling demand for electricity https://t.co/AfFOTQXtQp Could the US coal industry make a comeback The power source may be finding a second wind amid swelling demand for electricity https://t.co/AfFOTQXtQp"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1920628847625584702)  2025-05-08T23:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@bennpeifert 🤡"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1921760290426798236)  2025-05-12T02:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Agreed $HNRG I've got pretty high conviction that this power trade is inning 2-3 vs played out. Power has never been a meaningful bottleneck for compute. Now it is as essential of an ingredient as chip innovations. This is what I was carrying prior to liquidation: VST CCJ VG EQT BE VRT EQT I've got pretty high conviction that this power trade is inning 2-3 vs played out. Power has never been a meaningful bottleneck for compute. Now it is as essential of an ingredient as chip innovations. This is what I was carrying prior to liquidation: VST CCJ VG EQT BE VRT EQT"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1929945953169006702)  2025-06-03T16:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$HNRG $IREN Morgan Stanley: We believe the consensus view is not sufficiently bullish regarding the value creation opportunity for companies that can provide "time to power" solutions for data centers. One example of a way to think about the value creation potential: through [----] if $IREN Morgan Stanley: We believe the consensus view is not sufficiently bullish regarding the value creation opportunity for companies that can provide "time to power" solutions for data centers. One example of a way to think about the value creation potential: through [----] if"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1931721623184298428)  2025-06-08T14:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$GEO $CXW "Lyons (acting director of ICE) wrote that the Trump administration's departments of Homeland Security and Justice had 'revised its legal position on detention and release authorities' and determined that such immigrants (any who crossed the border illegally) 'may not be released from ICE custody.'" Detention numbers are going to explode. With their goals of 3000+ arrests a day and detention levels already at records there's not enough detention capacity. Would think its likely they'll eventually have to incorporate ATD programs. Surprised the market doesn't seem to have responded"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1945134295414145359)  2025-07-15T14:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$GEO ICE moves to shackle some [------] immigrants with GPS ankle monitors https://www.washingtonpost.com/immigration/2025/07/24/ice-check-in-ankle-monitor-immigrants/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/immigration/2025/07/24/ice-check-in-ankle-monitor-immigrants/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1948346551329305065)  2025-07-24T11:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$GEO Trump Administration Orders Massive Expansion of GPS Ankle Monitors for Immigrants Ankle monitors could double taxpayer costs to $500000 per day despite nearly 100% compliance for people in ICE's alternatives to detention program. https://t.co/5h2vPjpKk5 Trump Administration Orders Massive Expansion of GPS Ankle Monitors for Immigrants Ankle monitors could double taxpayer costs to $500000 per day despite nearly 100% compliance for people in ICE's alternatives to detention program. https://t.co/5h2vPjpKk5"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1949614997799117119)  2025-07-27T23:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$GEO The former private prison exec behind ICEs immigrant detention surge https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/08/01/ice-david-venturella-geo-immigration-detention/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/08/01/ice-david-venturella-geo-immigration-detention/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1951727615825326321)  2025-08-02T19:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Think both $ELF and $GEO getting unfairly punished for short-term effects of little meaning. $ELF results backwards looking from a much higher tariff rate than there is today and not reflecting the price increase that went into effect Aug 1st. With the current tariff rate ELF estimates a $50M annual impact. Unless if there is major demand destruction which I don't expect the dollar per unit price increase is likely to bring in at least $150M being a net positive. I wonder if the credit card data starting to reflect this price increase will have any impact on sentiment. I also thought it was"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1953529903086805006)  2025-08-07T18:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$GEO back to election day levels despite an evolution fundamentally that bulls could have only wished for. Arrests and detention numbers at all-time highs ICE officers rising 50% ATD prioritizing higher cost ankle monitoring ICE budget is tripling. The administration is filled with former GEO employees and lobbyists from the border czar Tom Homan to the AG Pam Bondi. Thanks to their recent state prison sale they've even delevered and introduced a buyback sooner than I expected. Despite all this the market doesn't seem to appreciate the uncertainty and lack of current earnings inflection. With"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1955270967963406381)  2025-08-12T14:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@resetbasis Dude loves to talk shit about things he doesnt understand. https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1921762935677894812t=ra5lUanofMgyCbMZAyyb_Q&s=19 What an absolute clown. Spewing bullshit on things he doesn't understand and can't justify but sure call the Jew a nazi and block him instead of justifying yourself. Imagine giving this guy money. @bennpeifert https://t.co/I4xhOBRap7 https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1921762935677894812t=ra5lUanofMgyCbMZAyyb_Q&s=19 What an absolute clown. Spewing bullshit on things he doesn't understand and can't justify but sure call the Jew a nazi and"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1957480654775505249)  2025-08-18T16:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"This is what the WH is posting and you're not long $GEO 🚁🚁🚁 https://t.co/6LSUCBcDQK 🚁🚁🚁 https://t.co/6LSUCBcDQK"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1964360537115947077)  2025-09-06T16:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$FLR was trading at an EV of $5.5B (excluding their Nuscale stake) at the end of [----] when $SMR was trading around [--] dollars a share. SMR share price has more than 10xed since then with FLR's stake now worth $5B yet FLR hasn't gotten any credit for this and is still at an EV of $5.5B (excluding SMR) despite being more deleveraged and generally in a better place with own their businesses compared to [----]. FLR wants to cut their SMR stake in half and just converted 15M shares that ended their lock-up period last week. I'm hopeful that they monetize this quickly and proceeds go to buybacks as"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1967568924691550713)  2025-09-15T12:39Z [----] followers, 12.7K engagements


"They're selling. Recent Form [---] for the 15M shares said 'The shares represented by this filing are expected to be sold from time-to-time in multiple transactions within [--] months of this filing.' Hell of a cash influx before year end. $FLR $SMR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1969018042651930767)  2025-09-19T12:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Throwback to [--] years ago before Humans of New York started platforming the Neturei Karta. https://t.co/XPSiewuUbE Throwback to [--] years ago before Humans of New York started platforming the Neturei Karta. https://t.co/XPSiewuUbE"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1975196212228952425)  2025-10-06T13:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$FLR has now sold 14.1M shares of $SMR for proceeds of $560M in about [--] weeks. 900k shares more to sell in this 15M tranche and then hopefully a new conversion and sell program is announced soon. 111M more shares able to be converted and sold although only expecting them to sell another 50M or so to reach their target of 20-25% ownership. Huge cash inflows for their EV. $FLR was trading at an EV of $5.5B (excluding their Nuscale stake) at the end of [----] when $SMR was trading around [--] dollars a share. SMR share price has more than 10xed since then with FLR's stake now worth $5B yet FLR hasn't"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1975328895118590171)  2025-10-06T22:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$FLR $605M in proceeds in less than [--] days and "intends to use a majority of the proceeds from this sale to enhance its ongoing share repurchase program.""  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1976382629319717050)  2025-10-09T20:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Getting $FLR net of their $SMR stake for about $0 EV right now after accounting for recent proceeds offset with NOLs. This for a company with its own tailwinds that's actively monetizing their stake and using proceeds for buybacks. $FLR $605M in proceeds in less than [--] days and "intends to use a majority of the proceeds from this sale to enhance its ongoing share repurchase program." https://t.co/jSjqZqkRCY $FLR $605M in proceeds in less than [--] days and "intends to use a majority of the proceeds from this sale to enhance its ongoing share repurchase program." https://t.co/jSjqZqkRCY"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1977797786453065775)  2025-10-13T18:05Z [----] followers, 10.1K engagements


"$GEO 🚨 BREAKING: Tom Homan just INFURIATED Zohran Mamdani and Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson by confirming illegal alien beds will nearly DOUBLE to [------] THOUSAND 🔥 https://t.co/zFviQ2Ypoi [------] beds turn over [--] times a year You got a MILLION deportations We will 🚨 BREAKING: Tom Homan just INFURIATED Zohran Mamdani and Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson by confirming illegal alien beds will nearly DOUBLE to [------] THOUSAND 🔥 https://t.co/zFviQ2Ypoi [------] beds turn over [--] times a year You got a MILLION deportations We will"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1987864844893081709)  2025-11-10T12:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"As of [--] days ago detention numbers were at 65k according to Homan. Thats just shy of a 9% increase since TRAC last published their data on Sept 21st despite the government shutdown. In the same time $GEO is down 30%. ICE is still ramping up in my opinion and hasn't yet started spending their new budget due to the shutdown and detention populations are still going vertical. At 65k they're basically at capacity so will likely be seeing more contracts signed soon with the shutdown now over. Shocked that both $CXW and $GEO back down here but seems nonsensical and expecting the businesses to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1989067220471701945)  2025-11-13T20:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@EnergyCredit1 And is 100% committed to buybacks until they see themselves more correctly valued. Going to be an interesting experiment. Could spend their market cap on buybacks the next few years"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1602324870699925504)  2022-12-12T15:29Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$AMR committed to buybacks and likely bought back 25%+ of MC this year. 15% owned by insiders another 75ish by institutions. Likely to keep buybacks at similar level over the next year where are the shares going to come from Could be an interesting squeeze next few yrs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1608923040154550272)  2022-12-30T20:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$AMR a company that understands capital allocation. Paraphrasing - "M&A Hard to do when we're valued around 2x. Our biggest focus is on buying more $AMR shares.""  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1628781477419708422)  2023-02-23T15:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Impressive results from $CEIX. Cash machine executing operationally. Very happy to see them up shareholder returns to 75% of FCF with a focus on buybacks. No reason for dividends at this FCF yield. Bought back 3.5% of float this Q at $55.60 should accelerate the rest of the year"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1653354287429214208)  2023-05-02T11:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Selected important quotes from $CXW call. A lot more detail on the call. At an inflection point and upside not appreciated by the market. "if you look at our staffing levels today and again they're elevated within our ICE facilities for this potential demand if you look at our midpoint as we just announced here in the last [--] hours for our guidance I think you could add probably another 10% on top of that if we were able to recalibrate our staffing based on actual population levels. So it's a different way. Probably about $0.12 $0.14 probably to keep me honest here Dave is what you could add"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1654259318424846336)  2023-05-04T22:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@EnergyCredit1 @WTIBull $CEIX just now plowing FCF into buybacks should make that list too as much as I wanted them to previously. No hate from me for $AMR buybacks though they can just continue to carpet bomb shares with their FCF. And credit to BTU management That's tough let's see how it goes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1663978402578137088)  2023-05-31T18:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Chart crime but it's beautiful. Happy to see them getting rid of the dividend at the end of the year to focus entirely on buybacks. Basic weighted average sharecount was [--------] for the quarter. End of July down to [--------]. Incredible. $AMR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1687438376058720256)  2023-08-04T12:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@dyer440 CEIX can likely pivot tons to export without an issue. Could even benefit from this and realize higher prices than what they would have should this happen. Lot of their domestic contracts take or pay too"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1695887543592509698)  2023-08-27T19:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"This double standard in how to respond only applies when Jews are killed and are the ones responding. I don't recall outrage for the West and speaking of innocents when we bombed Europe in WW2. We killed hundreds of thousands of civilians in Japan to avoid a costly incursion that would cost more US lives. We've indiscriminately bombed countless places since. No only when Jews are killed is the response unacceptable. "How Israel does this matters" US Secretary of State Antony Blinken says Israel "has the right indeed the obligation" to defend itself but adds that "democracies distinguish"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1712448375579095060)  2023-10-12T12:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Thanks for having me again Can't recommend idea brunch enough. @IdeaBrunchEmail @StockJabber New Idea Brunch with Ryan Rahinsky @blueoutliercap We discuss his strong first year revisit his good call on $CEIX (up 80% since last year) and hear some of his new top ideas Enjoy https://t.co/13ZA77HRSG New Idea Brunch with Ryan Rahinsky @blueoutliercap We discuss his strong first year revisit his good call on $CEIX (up 80% since last year) and hear some of his new top ideas Enjoy https://t.co/13ZA77HRSG"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1744063308846473497)  2024-01-07T18:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"It's a ridiculous argument. Companies buybacks are only effective if the stock is above the buyback price That's a very very short term view. These shares don't return and the buyback was a big part of the story of why they're going for a higher multiple than peers. What would you prefer they spend it on another Itmann or M&A Hasn't been value accretive for companies that have done either. Despite transforming the business and taking away most of the risk they're at a similar enterprise value to when they spun off a decade ago despite the changes in the industry. How do you think that's not a"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1755953510103838946)  2024-02-09T13:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"This x1000. The whole industry is 'cheap' you pay for the management and capital allocation and $AMR continues to seperate itself from the pack along these lines. $CEIX as well on the high-quality thermal side. @ardaarkun That is hazardous to your heath. The $AMR mgmt team is so much better than the other [--]. When in doubt don't over think it. @mfwarder @dyer440 @aggresivevalue @ardaarkun That is hazardous to your heath. The $AMR mgmt team is so much better than the other [--]. When in doubt don't over think it. @mfwarder @dyer440 @aggresivevalue"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1762160709968756923)  2024-02-26T17:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Too early to say but any extended closure will undoubtedly impact $CEIX. Between Consol and CSX's Curtis Bay about 25% of the nation's coal exports depart from Baltimore. AT LEAST [--] COMMERCIAL SHIPS HEADED TO US BALTIMORE PORT DROP ANCHOR IN WATERS NEARBY - SHIP TRACKING DATA AT LEAST [--] COMMERCIAL SHIPS HEADED TO US BALTIMORE PORT DROP ANCHOR IN WATERS NEARBY - SHIP TRACKING DATA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1772595938218868924)  2024-03-26T12:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Grew international sales 115% yoy (overall sales 77%) and international currently only makes up 16% of total sales. As they add new countries they're quickly rising to be the top brand. How many brands have that ability "So a few months ago when we launched Douglas Italy not only were lines down the block for when we opened but we quickly rose to the number one brand in Italy not only in mass but across prestige. We recently found the same thing when we went into Etos in the Netherlands we're not even complete with our rollout there. I think the rollout gets completed in July but we're"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1797088523184464318)  2024-06-02T02:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


""The global battle for AI supremacy may well depend on which countries have enough data centers and power to support the technology." This is why I think China likely leads with ai long-term. They're much more efficient at scaling power supply which if the exponential growth expectations of ai and power demand are to be believed quickly becomes the bottleneck. AIs Insatiable Need for Energy Is Straining Global Power Grids https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-ai-data-centers-power-grids/ai=eyJpc1N1YnNjcmliZWQiOnRydWUsImFydGljbGVSZWFkIjpmYWxzZSwiYXJ0aWNsZUNvdW50IjowLCJ3YWxsSGVpZ2h0IjoxfQ=="  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1804257238208364855)  2024-06-21T20:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$BUR I met with management a couple times recently and came away disappointed. Burford is not prioritizing the highest return with the incremental dollar. The priorities are first funding large high return cases then funding the less risky lower return opportunities. A buyback is something that would only happen with 'excess capital' after these lower return opportunities are exhausted. So they seemingly prioritize total portfolio asset growth over investing the incremental dollar in the highest return opportunity. I believe its a mistake to dilute the portfolio into lower return"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1806704446757306632)  2024-06-28T15:01Z [----] followers, 19.3K engagements


"That justification just means they should have remained with using third party capital and not tying up their own in the low return side of the business. Still a misallocation. They have an existing relationship with most of the top companies and law firms as well and they're the biggest player in the space. I don't buy into the idea that these small deals need to be funded from the balance sheet to somehow maintain a relationship. I don't even look at these as necessarily cases as much as shorter term financing. It's deworsification away from the core business for single digit returns when"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1806715827476947333)  2024-06-28T15:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Big tech seemingly dependent on the monetization of ai to justify their valuations. Earnings Season to Test Investors Faith in Big Tech Stocks https://www.wsj.com/articles/earnings-season-to-test-investors-faith-in-big-tech-stocks-a16dc89e https://www.wsj.com/articles/earnings-season-to-test-investors-faith-in-big-tech-stocks-a16dc89e"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1809928680820322753)  2024-07-07T12:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@puppyeh1 They should be driving their own rerating through a buyback taking advantage of the misunderstanding and undervaluation. Instead they're investing in lower return opportunities and see a buyback as a return of capital. It's a misallocation issue imo. https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1806704446757306632t=lUaM7khNTeCtIu3sdhg3_w&s=19 $BUR I met with management a couple times recently and came away disappointed. Burford is not prioritizing the highest return with the incremental dollar. The priorities are first funding large high return cases then funding the less risky lower return"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1813562452082360710)  2024-07-17T13:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$CEIX Power Plant Payouts on Biggest US Grid to Rise to Record (Bloomberg) - Auction will help shape electric mix for big part of US - PJM grid spans [--] states from Illinois to New Jersey $VST $CEG https://t.co/aAVViGUZsr Power Plant Payouts on Biggest US Grid to Rise to Record (Bloomberg) - Auction will help shape electric mix for big part of US - PJM grid spans [--] states from Illinois to New Jersey $VST $CEG https://t.co/aAVViGUZsr"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1818417031034577236)  2024-07-30T22:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Share price weakness this year has surprised me but doesn't seem fundamentally warranted. Management taking full advantage by retiring shares over 5% of shares retired YTD. $YUMC Q2 '24: Net income $212m EPS $0.55 Revenue $2.68b OP profit $266m up 4% YoY. Core OP profit $275m up 12% YoY. [---] net new stores opened in H1. Returned nearly $1b to shareholders. https://t.co/7pvrdj78fq $YUMC Q2 '24: Net income $212m EPS $0.55 Revenue $2.68b OP profit $266m up 4% YoY. Core OP profit $275m up 12% YoY. [---] net new stores opened in H1. Returned nearly $1b to shareholders. https://t.co/7pvrdj78fq"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1820567847153840418)  2024-08-05T21:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$CEIX could outperform all the coal companies over the next couple decades imo. Looking at the supply demand forecasts of seaborne high cv thermal compared to met high cv looks much more constructive particularly 5-10+ years out. I think this wider supply/demand gap results in less cyclicality and higher prices. I expect high cv thermal prices will command a price closer to met prices than in the past with spikes above to encourage crossover met when it's needed. If this happens Consol could have structurally much higher margins than the met companies and they're perfectly positioned to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1822989839223926925)  2024-08-12T13:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Fingers crossed Consol rejects this US coal miner Arch Resources is nearing a deal to merge with rival Consol Energy to create a $5 billion company people familiar say https://t.co/UDD0Z26wGn US coal miner Arch Resources is nearing a deal to merge with rival Consol Energy to create a $5 billion company people familiar say https://t.co/UDD0Z26wGn"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1826087148983828549)  2024-08-21T02:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$CEIX $CEIX could outperform all the coal companies over the next couple decades imo. Looking at the supply demand forecasts of seaborne high cv thermal compared to met high cv looks much more constructive particularly 5-10+ years out. I think this wider supply/demand gap results in $CEIX could outperform all the coal companies over the next couple decades imo. Looking at the supply demand forecasts of seaborne high cv thermal compared to met high cv looks much more constructive particularly 5-10+ years out. I think this wider supply/demand gap results in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1826230862016639106)  2024-08-21T12:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Failure of an administration that was enabling and providing aid to terrorists holding and executing American hostages. Hersh Goldberg-Polin is an American hero who will be remembered for his kindness and selflessness. Our hearts break for Jon Rachel and their entire family as well as the other families who found out today their loved ones wont be coming home. May their memory be a blessing. Hersh Goldberg-Polin is an American hero who will be remembered for his kindness and selflessness. Our hearts break for Jon Rachel and their entire family as well as the other families who found out today"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1830132997368037586)  2024-09-01T06:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Eating market share. Tracked US sales still growing 18% while competitors bleed. I think a doubling of US sales over the next 4-5 years is possible but the growth story from here is international. Early days. Just had their largest retail launch ever in [----] stores in Germany this month the success of that is more important to me than their US sales growth this quarter and should put them comfortably over their guidance. They've been taking a measured approach in their international expansion but should overall growth slow I think we see that accelerate. $ELF $ELF It's still too early to buy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1840849567426007438)  2024-09-30T20:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Agree but I would add that the market wizards interviews with Jamie Mai and John Bender were much more helpful and eye-opening to me. A book can make you money. "You Can Be A stock Market Genius" by Joel Greenblatt for example. The chapter on LEAPs alone is priceless. and you can get it for $2.99 on kindle. WTF A book can make you money. "You Can Be A stock Market Genius" by Joel Greenblatt for example. The chapter on LEAPs alone is priceless. and you can get it for $2.99 on kindle. WTF"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1841842201443115397)  2024-10-03T14:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Says the woman who dated and slept with a married power broker more than twice her age (29 & 60) in return for favor (including a BMW). She's been attracted to power like a moth to a flame her whole life. We know who Donald Trump is. He will stop at nothing to claim power for himself. We know who Donald Trump is. He will stop at nothing to claim power for himself"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1846260567838793959)  2024-10-15T18:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Don't think the climb has been multiple expansion as much as the outlook for future earnings. Would argue it's likely cheaper now than it was on November 4th. Fourteen months back Citron Research flagged GEO ($GEO) as a stock positioned to gain from the shifting border crisis and potential political changes. Over that time we've kept the updates coming and the stock has jumped 300% even though earnings havent really budged. This Fourteen months back Citron Research flagged GEO ($GEO) as a stock positioned to gain from the shifting border crisis and potential political changes. Over that time"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1856367429007393246)  2024-11-12T16:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Full of assumptions joins @sprucepointcap with misguided ELF short reports. "We Believe ELF's Imports are the Best Data for Understanding End U.S. Demand" - Why when there are a bunch of third-party sales data providers Why doesn't this sales data corroborate this no doubt why this wasnt included in the report Big allegations to use such large assumptions and import data without corroborating evidence or explaining the conflicting data. We'll see what management says. MW is short $ELF. We believe it's overstating revenue profits inventory. 80% of its product is imported. Import data show 3"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1859300823022408086)  2024-11-20T18:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Bit opposite for me. I was warned not to take this route that there's a path (through IB and then buyside) that you take and that very few independent start from nothing funds make it. All that is absolutely right and I appreciated the candor. If you can be talked out of starting a fund you shouldn't start one to begin with. You need conviction and confidence in your abilities enough to disregard all this and the statistics around the likely failure and go for it. If you already have doubts before starting you likely don't have the conviction to see it through. You dont need to be old to be"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1862515175208661473)  2024-11-29T15:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@AndrewRangeley And instead of capitalizing on this by focusing on buybacks they hire a Chief Development Officer to continue expanding into lower return businesses. Prioritizing business growth over putting the incremental dollar to the highest return"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1875008192259973256)  2025-01-03T02:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"+2500% in [--] years and blowing peers with other capital allocation priorities out of the water I'd still say the strategy worked. Huge net cash position waiting for steel/met coal markets to turn and when they finally do I bet they outperform on the upside too. If people started a position at [---] that's just showing up late to the game"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1877022115926331686)  2025-01-08T15:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$ELF No new country expansion announcements in two quarters now. The fact they have growth slowing in existing markets and aren't pushing international more with the pent-up demand and success they've seen in new geographies is inexcusable. Makes no sense not to accelerate this expansion if legacy channels are maturing. International is the incremental growth driver and its a big question mark that needs to be better communicated. If they announced a couple new countries on the call I'd have much more confidence in growth over the next year and there would likely be a different market"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1887649136645722500)  2025-02-06T23:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Sent a similar note to LPs last night but the satellite data is very interesting and something I missed. $HNRG Hallador Energy: Recent Filing To MISO Indicates A Datacenter Deal Is Imminent https://seekingalpha.com/article/4766240-hallador-energy-recent-filing-to-miso-indicates-a-datacenter-deal-is-imminentsource=Twitter https://seekingalpha.com/article/4766240-hallador-energy-recent-filing-to-miso-indicates-a-datacenter-deal-is-imminentsource=Twitter"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1900199243010159088)  2025-03-13T14:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"David's been an absolute market killer through numerous regimes. @John_Hempton Just me and the combined. One of my best weeks ever. https://t.co/naMijKf7WX @John_Hempton Just me and the combined. One of my best weeks ever. https://t.co/naMijKf7WX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1900890058913104043)  2025-03-15T12:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"We'll see soon but if we go with a reciprocal tariff regime I think the most likely eventual off ramp is tariffs / trade barriers on US goods being reduced globally. We're the largest consumer economy in the world and the largest importer. Other countries have much more to lose than to gain with escalating tariffs against us. If one country does this and has their tariffs slashed to [--] they're now more competitive compared to competing countries still with tariffs. You could see a race to the bottom and slashing of trade restrictions and tariffs globally. If we don't go with reciprocal and"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1907430726405935391)  2025-04-02T13:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Further evidence that this may be reciprocal based. Israel may be getting ahead of this. Today we cancelled all of the customs duties levied on products from the US Israel's largest trading partner. Cancelling the customs duties on American goods is an additional step in the policy that my governments have led for a decade in opening up the market to competition Today we cancelled all of the customs duties levied on products from the US Israel's largest trading partner. Cancelling the customs duties on American goods is an additional step in the policy that my governments have led for a"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1907432503670981046)  2025-04-02T13:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Yikes Just figured out where these fake tariff rates come from. They didn't actually calculate tariff rates + non-tariff barriers as they say they did. Instead for every country they just took our trade deficit with that country and divided it by the country's exports to us. So we Just figured out where these fake tariff rates come from. They didn't actually calculate tariff rates + non-tariff barriers as they say they did. Instead for every country they just took our trade deficit with that country and divided it by the country's exports to us. So we"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1907566270477652443)  2025-04-02T22:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Republicans are supposed to be the party of free markets capitalism low taxes small government and deregulation. These tariffs are the exact opposite of all of this. Huge government overreach into private markets a tax on consumption enacted without Congress a higher regulatory burden and growth of government. I think its becoming more likely that Republicans eventually move against this plan. The pain threshold for Congress is likely lower than Trumps. Republicans were finally seeing momentum on their side and have been appealing to a younger generation. Now instead of the reciprocal tariffs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1909234603585380495)  2025-04-07T13:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"What could have been until they tethered themselves to the sinking ship of ARCH. $CEIX could outperform all the coal companies over the next couple decades imo. Looking at the supply demand forecasts of seaborne high cv thermal compared to met high cv looks much more constructive particularly 5-10+ years out. I think this wider supply/demand gap results in $CEIX could outperform all the coal companies over the next couple decades imo. Looking at the supply demand forecasts of seaborne high cv thermal compared to met high cv looks much more constructive particularly 5-10+ years out. I think"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1920477082343088162)  2025-05-08T13:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Market coming around to a deal being a 'when' more than an 'if' $HNRG Sent a similar note to LPs last night but the satellite data is very interesting and something I missed. $HNRG Hallador Energy: Recent Filing To MISO Indicates A Datacenter Deal Is Imminent https://t.co/S2PLKCn6F9 Sent a similar note to LPs last night but the satellite data is very interesting and something I missed. $HNRG Hallador Energy: Recent Filing To MISO Indicates A Datacenter Deal Is Imminent https://t.co/S2PLKCn6F9"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1922301438228615221)  2025-05-13T14:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"This is what happens when you demonize an entire population. Spread lies and call Jews nazis like the POS @bennpeifert or other useful idiots and you encourage disturbed people to commit heinous acts thinking they're heros. We are shocked and horrified this morning by the news of the brutal terrorist attack that claimed the lives of two of our Embassy staff members in Washington Yaron Lischinsky and Sarah Lynn Milgrim. May their memory be a blessing. We embrace the grieving families during this https://t.co/4lNQnTvORG We are shocked and horrified this morning by the news of the brutal"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1925514638948491307)  2025-05-22T11:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Largely agree but the sell off doesn't surprise me. Wasn't long ago this crashed into single digits from deepseek fears always been an extremely volatile name and now a bit more uncertain. Negotiations on a deal and discussions on an extension to the exclusivity agreement are still ongoing so I dont think this is a setback in negotiations as much as their counterparty knowing they wont close in time and not wanting to pay the $2M coming due. It makes the timeline of a deal more uncertain but allows them to engage third parties that they received unsolicited offers from sooner. Im sure they"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1925902721082601784)  2025-05-23T13:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"My wife knows if anything were to ever happen to me give everything to @orrdavid. So many ways to make money in markets and me and David could not have more different styles. Given portfolio size and style I could never replicate his results I don't think anyone really can. He's had success through multiple market regimes while being so diversified and tilted short that I wouldn't have expected outperformance to be possible. A very atypical style that doesn't fit in any one box but the outlier returns to prove it works. John Hempton a very talented investor has an interesting take on my"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1948170931395785095)  2025-07-23T23:58Z [----] followers, 11.8K engagements


"Insane to me how blatant antisemitism has seemingly been widely accepted. Mostly from the losers of the world or those hiding behind anonymity. Imagine being a supposed capitalist and thinking the Jews deserved the holocaust because we outperform in meritocratic capitalist systems. @TylerDurden"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1957200795012849816)  2025-08-17T22:00Z [----] followers, 10.6K engagements


"Starboard's presentation from today. $FLR starts on slide [--]. Seem to be supporting a spin off of the $SMR stake. 2025_Active-Passive_Investor_Summit_-_Starboard_Value_LP.pdf https://share.google/TkqLYxsMc4TErEHIB https://share.google/TkqLYxsMc4TErEHIB"  
[X Link](https://x.com/blueoutliercap/status/1980709694218838184)  2025-10-21T18:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

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