#  @PrivateEyeCap Private Eye Capital Private Eye Capital posts on X about $maa, $udr, $cpt, $eqr the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1287942046381035522/interactions)  - [--] Week [-----] -57% - [--] Month [------] +159% - [--] Months [-------] +85% - [--] Year [-------] -26% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1287942046381035522/posts_active)  - [--] Month [--] -43% - [--] Months [---] +46% - [--] Year [---] -37% ### Followers: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1287942046381035522/followers)  - [--] Week [-----] +0.11% - [--] Month [-----] +0.61% - [--] Months [-----] +6.90% - [--] Year [-----] +9.30% ### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::1287942046381035522/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [stocks](/list/stocks) [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) [finance](/list/finance) [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) [currencies](/list/currencies) [mlb](/list/mlb) [financial services](/list/financial-services) [countries](/list/countries) [social networks](/list/social-networks) [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) **Social topic influence** [$maa](/topic/$maa), [$udr](/topic/$udr), [$cpt](/topic/$cpt), [$eqr](/topic/$eqr), [$avb](/topic/$avb), [$ess](/topic/$ess), [$vnq](/topic/$vnq), [$bx](/topic/$bx), [$invh](/topic/$invh), [reit](/topic/reit) **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@mrneutralman](/creator/undefined) [@realassetsvalue](/creator/undefined) [@jay21](/creator/undefined) [@thepupil11](/creator/undefined) [@yenoms](/creator/undefined) [@rhunterh](/creator/undefined) [@recoverytrade](/creator/undefined) [@jasonmiller15](/creator/undefined) [@jaywramseyky](/creator/undefined) [@theweezguy](/creator/undefined) [@jayparsons](/creator/undefined) [@slicetransverse](/creator/undefined) [@sinstockpapi](/creator/undefined) [@bizalmanac](/creator/undefined) [@heartofthesea](/creator/undefined) [@andrewrangeley](/creator/undefined) [@shortbusace](/creator/undefined) [@masasoncap](/creator/undefined) [@thescore](/creator/undefined) [@ajobst](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc (MAA)](/topic/$maa) [UDR, Inc. (UDR)](/topic/$udr) [Camden Property Trust (CPT)](/topic/$cpt) [Equity Residential (EQR)](/topic/$eqr) [Autonomous Virtual Beings (AVB)](/topic/$avb) [Earth [--] Essence (ESS)](/topic/$ess) [Blackstone, Inc. (BX)](/topic/$bx) [Invitation Homes, Inc. (INVH)](/topic/$invh) [Independence Realty Trust Inc. (IRT)](/topic/$irt) [Apartment Income REIT Corp. (AIRC)](/topic/$airc) [American Homes [--] Rent (AMH)](/topic/$amh) [SITE Centers Corp. Common Shares (SITC)](/topic/$sitc) [Sui (SUI)](/topic/$sui) [Kimco Realty Corp (KIM)](/topic/$kim) [BRIXMOR PROPERTY GROUP INC. (BRX)](/topic/$brx) [Regency Centers Corp (REG)](/topic/$reg) [Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT)](/topic/$frt) [Kite Realty Group Trust (KRG)](/topic/$krg) [Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR)](/topic/$czr) [Apollo Global Management, Inc. (APO)](/topic/$apo) [Starbucks Corporation (SBUX)](/topic/$sbux) [Ethlas (ELS)](/topic/$els) [Rexford Industrial Realty, Inc. (REXR)](/topic/$rexr) [Phillips Edison & Company, Inc. (PECO)](/topic/$peco) [Charter Communications Inc (CHTR)](/topic/$chtr) [Robonomics Network (XRT)](/topic/$xrt) [VICI Properties, Inc. (VICI)](/topic/$vici) [BRT Apartments Corp (BRT)](/topic/$brt) [First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc. (FR)](/topic/$fr) [KKR & Co, Inc. (KKR)](/topic/$kkr) [Curbline Properties Corp. (CURB)](/topic/$curb) [STORE Capital, Corp. (STOR)](/topic/$stor) [Kilroy Realty Corp. (KRC)](/topic/$krc) [Prologis Inc (PLD)](/topic/$pld) [Bridge Oracle (BRG)](/topic/$brg) [McDonald's Corp (MCD)](/topic/$mcd) [Salesforce Inc (CRM)](/topic/$crm) [Walker & Dunlop, Inc. (WD)](/topic/$wd) [WP Carey, Inc. (WPC)](/topic/$wpc) [National Retail Properties, Inc. (NNN)](/topic/$nnn) [Coca-Cola Co (KO)](/topic/$ko) [PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP)](/topic/$pep) [Zillow Group, Inc. (ZG)](/topic/$zg) [Driven Brands Holdings Inc. (DRVN)](/topic/$drvn) [Boston Properties, Inc. (BXP)](/topic/$bxp) [Altice USA, Inc. Class A Common Stock (ATUS)](/topic/$atus) [Carlyle Group, Inc. (CG)](/topic/$cg) [Gaming and Leisure Properties, Inc. (GLPI)](/topic/$glpi) [Portillo’s Inc. (PTLO)](/topic/$ptlo) [Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG)](/topic/$cmg) [American Tower Corp (AMT)](/topic/$amt) [TPG Inc. (TPG)](/topic/$tpg) [CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA)](/topic/$cava) [Public Storage (PSA)](/topic/$psa) [Apartment Investment and Management Company (AIV)](/topic/$aiv) [Liberty Media Corporation Series A Liberty Braves Common Stock (BATRA)](/topic/$batra) [Clipper Realty Inc. Common Stock (CLPR)](/topic/$clpr) [AudioCoin (ADC)](/topic/$adc) [SPDR S&P [---] ETF Trust (SPY)](/topic/$spy) [Nordstrom, Inc. (JWN)](/topic/$jwn) [Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI)](/topic/$dri) [Basis Cash (BAC)](/topic/$bac) [Wall Street Memes (WSM)](/topic/$wsm) [PENN Entertainment Inc (PENN)](/topic/$penn) [MGM Resorts International (MGM)](/topic/$mgm) [Sphere Entertainment Co. (SPHR)](/topic/$sphr) [Novo-Nordisk (NVO)](/topic/$nvo) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "$EQR Equity Residential: MEGACITIES will thrive and the PRIVATE MARKET SCREAMS BUY https://www.privateeyecapital.com/equity-residential-the-megacity-will-thrive-and-the-private-market-screams-buy/ https://www.privateeyecapital.com/equity-residential-the-megacity-will-thrive-and-the-private-market-screams-buy/" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1295341792057937925) 2020-08-17T12:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$ESS - great 3Q results. Improved trends in key metrics heading into Oct. Mgmt optimistic on 2H21 inflection. Private market strong with most apartment values at or above pre-pandemic levels. My fair value est remains $350/sh. #reit #dividend $AVB $EQR https://www.privateeyecapital.com/essex-property-trust-3q-results-pretty-pretty-good/ https://www.privateeyecapital.com/essex-property-trust-3q-results-pretty-pretty-good/" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1322162720917975041) 2020-10-30T13:05Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$AIV $EQR $ESS $AVB $CPT $MAA $UDR $VNQ #reits #dividends yesterday it was disclosed that AIV received a buyout approach though there was no discussion of price. Today I take a look at what AIV/apartment REITs could be worth to private buyers. https://www.privateeyecapital.com/aiv-gets-approached-will-we-see-bids-for-other-apartment-reits/ https://www.privateeyecapital.com/aiv-gets-approached-will-we-see-bids-for-other-apartment-reits/" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1334489144853102594) 2020-12-03T13:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "There are few better investors than the Great John Malone. Malone has been "buying substantial interests in multifamily properties". $ESS $EQR $AVB $CPT #reits $BATRA $GLIBA $CHTR $SIRI $LBRDK $MAA $CLPR $NEN https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/11/19/liberty-medias-john-malone-says-heas-buying-hard-assets-in-bet-on-currency-devaluation.html https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/11/19/liberty-medias-john-malone-says-heas-buying-hard-assets-in-bet-on-currency-devaluation.html" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1349166312124080128) 2021-01-13T01:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Are Mobile Home Park operator $SUI and $ELS the best real estate businesses #reits #dividends $TLT $VNQ $XLRE 1/No supply concerns - supply is flat over time. Many parks converted to higher & better use while NIMBYism and high land costs prevent new supply from being added" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1350522052143321088) 2021-01-16T19:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$AVB $EQR $UDR $ESS $CLPR $NEN This out after hours -Occupancy picking up and rents stabilizing in urban core apartments AHEAD of vaccine rollout at AVB: #reits #dividends #investing $VNQ $TLT" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1357083714048589824) 2021-02-03T21:49Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$ESS similar to $AVB we see a pickup in occupancy and stabilizing sequential revenue/NOI trends. Also good to see a resumption of buyback @ Essex (especially given the large discount to my estimated $350/share NAV) #reits $VNQ $EQR $UDR" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1357447670432845824) 2021-02-04T21:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Inflation $TLT worries=opportunity to invest in single family rental leader Invitation Homes $INVH. At $28/sh implies 4.8% [----] cap rate. Trades at 5-10% discount to NAV. $AVB $EQR $CPT $MAA $ESS $VNQ $AMH $XLRE #reits #dividends SHOULD trade at premium to NAV-Platform value:" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1367907424070373381) 2021-03-05T18:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$EQR #reits #dividends so it was a SELL at $50 but is a hold at $72. Got it. Great work Zelman. $AVB $BXP $ESS $UDR $SPG $O https://www.themarketsdaily.com/2021/03/23/equity-residential-nyseeqr-upgraded-by-zelman-associates-to-hold.html https://www.themarketsdaily.com/2021/03/23/equity-residential-nyseeqr-upgraded-by-zelman-associates-to-hold.html" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1374457499844177923) 2021-03-23T20:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$AMH American Homes4Rent providing more confirmation that Single Family Rental market is on fire: +10% rent growth on new leases in the 1Q (+11% in April). Lots of demand/ too few houses for rent. $INVH $VNQ #reits #dividends #SFR #singlefamilyrental" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1390419278596239360) 2021-05-06T21:32Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "I believe $STOR model trumps $O $WPC $NNN $ADC $NTST etc. Consider: $VNQ $XLRE $TLT If you had to buy a long term NNN retail play and there was NO corp guarantee what tenant would it be ( lets exclude chick fila) Here is mine: any well located super WaWa In southeastern PA or Southern NJ $$ printers Who are you taking If you had to buy a long term NNN retail play and there was NO corp guarantee what tenant would it be ( lets exclude chick fila) Here is mine: any well located super WaWa In southeastern PA or Southern NJ $$ printers Who are you taking" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1391029695408263171) 2021-05-08T13:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "1/n I don't think I'd be too excited to be a Vonovia $VNA $VNA.de $VNA.gr shareholder in the wake of its acquisition of Deutsche Wohnen. $DWNI $DWNI.de $DWNI.gr #reits #merger #dividends" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1397006468319113217) 2021-05-25T01:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "30 min [--] sec into the podcast Spencer cites KPMG Aug [----] survey: 70% of CEOs expected to use less office space. March [----] KPMG survey: only 17% of those same CEOs expect to use less office space. $KRC is my favorite pick in the office sector $SLG $BXP $VNO #reits #dividends What will cities look like in the future What about the suburbs @Richard_Florida and @RichardJBarkham address these and other compelling topics on #TheWeeklyTake. Listen at https://t.co/PgLGVd351o https://t.co/CIroasu9Jr What will cities look like in the future What about the suburbs @Richard_Florida and" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1397255191779364866) 2021-05-25T18:16Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Anyone following the $hitshow @ Bluerock Residential $BRG Without peeking I doubt anyone would guess the chart below is that of a pureplay sunbelt multifamily #REIT:" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1402374529435926529) 2021-06-08T21:18Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$BRG it could be argued that the company exists only to issue preferred stock. This year Bluerock Resi targets $400 mn in pref issuance. They pay 10% to do this to a RELATED PARTY -- $40 mn to management or $1 per share (10% of market cap). #ESG #reits #dividends" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1402695956823515143) 2021-06-09T18:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@thepupil11 Somewhat similar to what you've done with $LEN/ $LENB I did a covered call share class mix & match with $DISCK/ $DISCA. Spread isn't nearly as wide but assuming $T deal closes there will be just one class of shares in 12-14 months" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1406711484202115072) 2021-06-20T20:32Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@hesamagicman101 $AHT $AINC Monty Bennett = asymptote zero" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1411116935509467138) 2021-07-03T00:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "I'm not involved in the Bluerock $BRG trainwreck but if I were I'd certainly be voting against ALL nominees for director. If mgmt could be removed this #sunbelt #multifamily #REIT has 60%+ upside to NAV. #REITs #dividends $CPT $MAA https://s23.q4cdn.com/376743338/files/docs_proxy/2021/BRG-2021-Proxy-Statement-and-Notice-of-Annual-Shareholders-Meeting.pdf $BRG it could be argued that the company exists only to issue preferred stock. This year Bluerock Resi targets $400 mn in pref issuance. They pay 10% to do this to a RELATED PARTY -- $40 mn to management or $1 per share (10% of market cap)." [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1412925084889616385) 2021-07-08T00:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$ESS I sold a good chunk of my Essex shares over the past week. Was a total no-brainer at time of purchase (only the sellside $GS $MS $C $PIPR missed it). Big move for such a low risk stock in less than one year. Now trading more or less at NAV. $VNQ #dividends #reits $EQR $AVB $ESS $EQR $AVB #REIT #investing Are you a long term investor Do yourself a favor-don't listen to the sellside (i.e. Goldman Citi Morgan Stanley) brokers - think for yourself & do your own work. Goldman recommendations are really 'entertainment only'. https://t.co/1KRdgw63Qy $ESS $EQR $AVB #REIT #investing Are you a" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1417872124518178817) 2021-07-21T15:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$ATUS - took a position in Altice USA. 9x EV/EBITDA 10x FCFE for an incredibly stable/economically resilient business with pricing power which should grow 3-5%. Putting pretty much ALL FCF into buybacks which are very accretive here. $CHTR $CMCSA $CABO $VZ $T" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1420817325209513984) 2021-07-29T18:43Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@DalhiMackle @MasaSonCap @sinstockpapi Lack of scale implies some large fixed cost hurdle (R&D for software/tech content spend for media etc). Not an issue here. High mkt sh in ares they operate. Unlikely to sell but PE would buy in a heartbeat aka 49% of Lightpath to $MS Infr Partners at 15x EBITDA" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1422380066013466624) 2021-08-03T02:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "(1/n) As recent fund raising efforts show Institutional Investors cannot seem to get enough Private Equity exposure. This has been reflected in share prices of $KKR $BX $CG $APO. And with the 10y UST @ 1.2% with near all time low high yield spreads why not It is logical" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1423606125560164358) 2021-08-06T11:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Obvious guy says "unhealthy" is incinerating your clients money $HSGFX during the greatest bull market of all time Like how is that even possible #delusional #mutualfunds $IWM $SPY $ARKK" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1427772306944757762) 2021-08-17T23:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@andyolivastro @libertymdus #ESG as we sit today is mindless (or worse) box checking. Merely a feature of a product. Less thought applied than in a high school humanities class. One case in point: $KO and $PEP populate #ESGInvesting portfolios. There's no thinking here. $USXF clipping fees though" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1431985035653959690) 2021-08-29T14:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@sinstockpapi I also like $BTI $MO as a 'short' of the mindless #ESG #ESGinvesting monster w/o the unlimited downside risk. How is owning $KO ok (covertly kill) but $BTI (acknowledge health risk) not ok $USXF $USSG $DSI #hypocracy #NoThoughtAllowed $SPY $QQQ $IWM $PEP" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1433587206111723521) 2021-09-03T00:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "I concur professor #ESG $SPY $IWM $TLT $ARKK $ESGU $ESGE $ESGD $ESGV $SUSL $USGG $USXF https://seekingalpha.com/news/3739730-dean-of-valuation-aswath-damodaran-sees-no-good-points-in-esg#comments https://seekingalpha.com/news/3739730-dean-of-valuation-aswath-damodaran-sees-no-good-points-in-esg#comments" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1437918463427633153) 2021-09-14T23:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "IMO $BRG will NOT get sold. Mgmt owns the broker dealer that earns 10% fees on pref issuances. Hence BRG's targeted $400 mn in prefs issuance this year. So mgmt can re-direct $40 mn from s/hs to themselves. #reits #dividends $MAA $CPT $NXRT #kleptocracy Multifamily landlord Bluerock Residential Growth REIT is exploring options including an outright sale New $BRG https://t.co/CbrxuhHywq Multifamily landlord Bluerock Residential Growth REIT is exploring options including an outright sale New $BRG https://t.co/CbrxuhHywq" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1438654262565818368) 2021-09-17T00:01Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "My tirade on $BRG from June. Mgmt incented to remain the world's worst performing sunbelt #REIT: Anyone following the $hitshow @ Bluerock Residential $BRG Without peeking I doubt anyone would guess the chart below is that of a pureplay sunbelt multifamily #REIT: https://t.co/c7EMBmteaC Anyone following the $hitshow @ Bluerock Residential $BRG Without peeking I doubt anyone would guess the chart below is that of a pureplay sunbelt multifamily #REIT: https://t.co/c7EMBmteaC" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1438658678203297793) 2021-09-17T00:18Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#ESG at Facebook $FB $SPY $IWM $TLT $ARKK #FcuktheESGtards $ESGU $ESGE $ESGD $ESGV $SUSL $USGG $USXF Cool cool. https://t.co/zTnU104uGC https://t.co/2cp14teyrl Cool cool. https://t.co/zTnU104uGC https://t.co/2cp14teyrl" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1440307890762358788) 2021-09-21T13:32Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$OPEN $Z $QQQ $ARKK 1/2 $Z comes out and says iBuying business is flawed (despite their data advantages) and does not/will not work. $OPEN trades UP 7% AH. One less competitor yes BUT (cont) 1/2 $Z comes out and says iBuying business is flawed (despite their data advantages) and does not/will not work. $OPEN trades UP 7% AH. One less competitor yes BUT (cont)" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1455643746691796996) 2021-11-02T21:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Kleptocracy continues at $BRG -raised another $115 mn via unnecessary issuance of more high cost prefs (mgmt pockets $11.5 mn). NO Q&A on conf call. Gets my vote for worst run #REIT. Too bad--NAV here is $30++ given rent growth/cap compression in #sunbelt. #dividends IMO $BRG will NOT get sold. Mgmt owns the broker dealer that earns 10% fees on pref issuances. Hence BRG's targeted $400 mn in prefs issuance this year. So mgmt can re-direct $40 mn from s/hs to themselves. #reits #dividends $MAA $CPT $NXRT #kleptocracy IMO $BRG will NOT get sold. Mgmt owns the broker dealer that earns 10% fees" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1456725470364377089) 2021-11-05T20:49Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@O_o_JHS Can't compare to global. UK/Australia do NOT have an MLS system. As such $RMV is the equiv of a for profit consumer facing MLS. Vastly superior industry structure/biz model" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1462934560228851715) 2021-11-23T00:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$JWN -Rack massively underperforming $TJX $ROST (comps up DD at TJX/ROST vs. [----] whereas NordRack down) while department store lags $M $DDS $KSS. Great brand terrible execution. Family should probably sell this to someone who can actually operate. $XRT https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/23/nordstrom-jwn-q3-2021.html https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/23/nordstrom-jwn-q3-2021.html" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1463254417046589445) 2021-11-23T21:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "A little insider buying @ $VICI #reits #dividends $GLPI $MGP $O $STOR $NNN https://investors.viciproperties.com/sec-filings/default.aspx https://investors.viciproperties.com/sec-filings/default.aspx" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1463636244735295492) 2021-11-24T22:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$PLAY is in a position of strength (a [--] week shutdown would add 0.25x turn to ND/EBITDA so 1.5-1.75x). Should this happen I'd expect that: A/Comps will go bust and D&B would emerge stronger B/Another round of stimulus which would make for another solid re-opening/record results" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1471992502437629953) 2021-12-17T23:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "As a native Chicagoan I felt compelled to run the ruler on Portillo's $PTLO. @ 24x 2023e EBITDA I'll pass. I think they'll struggle to do better than 10% annual EBITDA growth given lower AUVs outside core Chicago market. #IPO lockup approaching $SHAK $MCD $CAKE $DRI $WING $CMG" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1481405035070119936) 2022-01-12T23:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Went on a shopping spree for #REITs and #dividends today- bought: $AMT $ARE $ELS $EQIX 1st time buy in $HIW -starter position/just started studying $RADI and a bunch more $STOR - best of the #NNN bunch IMO" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1491882920339914760) 2022-02-10T21:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Nibbling on uggos: $C $ALLY $KBH $MHO $IWM $SPY #deepvalue $KBE https://www.privateeyecapital.com/things-i-dont-much-like-that-ive-nibbled-on/ https://www.privateeyecapital.com/things-i-dont-much-like-that-ive-nibbled-on/" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1511315469977849860) 2022-04-05T12:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Some thoughts on opportunities in shares of economically resilient infrastructure assets with inflation protection: $AMT $CCI $SBAC $HTWS $HTWS.LN $RADI $VNQ $CLNX #reits https://www.privateeyecapital.com/other-things-ive-done-pt-2-towers/ https://www.privateeyecapital.com/other-things-ive-done-pt-2-towers/" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1511684671972646915) 2022-04-06T12:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$HPP concerns over peak content are overdone. Studio assets are sub 15% of value. Leasing trends positive in key markets. Stripping out studio $HPP trades at an implied cap of nearly 8%. Too cheap for a largely Cl A portfolio in supply constrained markets. #reits $KRC $BXP $BX" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1520040268052852738) 2022-04-29T14:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@BearForce_Won @gatorcapital - i.e. when the capital markets shut down it doesn't create a capital crisis for $APO. Excluding an incentive related earnings (carry) APO trades at 11x aft-tax earnings should grow 15% pa and yields 3%. W/ no re-rating it is priced to return 18% annually" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1520840721242390528) 2022-05-01T19:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Fed put may be dead but $BX /B-REIT put is alive and well for multifamily. $MAA / $CPT seem like asymmetric bets here. $APTS $ACC $BRG #REITs Now that most all the US MF REITs have reported. Still a couple names I haven't added to my DIY comp sheet (like $NEN) but choose your fighter. Go @J264B @wsnh89 @hybridvigorish @thepupil11 @Mr_Neutral_Man https://t.co/DuN4T6je48 Now that most all the US MF REITs have reported. Still a couple names I haven't added to my DIY comp sheet (like $NEN) but choose your fighter. Go @J264B @wsnh89 @hybridvigorish @thepupil11 @Mr_Neutral_Man" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1524099914065539072) 2022-05-10T18:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Lots of inventory out there in the wonderful world of retail $XRT. From today's $BURL call:" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1529960460199481344) 2022-05-26T22:59Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Been buying some #REITs today - $ESS $MAA $CPT $KRC and $ARE ahead of #REITweek . $ESS put out a presentation Fri which included a guidance hike. I have $ESS at a 4.5% cap rate vs. recent private market transactions in the mid 3s - from 1Q22 conf call:" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1533866697366523904) 2022-06-06T17:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Apartment rents ripping. This is the deceleration narrative I suspect the sellside #REIT-ards $C $BAC $WFC $CS $UBS $GS $PIPR $JEF may glom on to for MF #REITs $MAA $CPT $AVB $UDR etc-some BS like 'we recommend waiting on the sidelines until rents accelerate'. Misses bigger story Rents are still accelerating in most of the country. But there are a handful of exceptions where the peak might be in the rearview mirror. There's a common narrative that the Coasts are accelerating and the Sun Belt decelerating but it's not exactly that cut and dry. (thread) https://t.co/4R1p2o3P64 Rents are still" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1534564363142430720) 2022-06-08T15:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "which is the massive rise in private REIT fund flows (see my last few Tweets). Also huge rent spreads experienced YTD suggest solid earn-in and strong NOI growth for [----] (I'll say 5+% for group as a whole - faster for $ESS). As such you are looking at 4.9-5 caps on [----] #s" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1534566285366788097) 2022-06-08T16:01Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Here's my writeup on what I believe to be a great opportunity in the apartment #REITs: $AVB $ESS $EQR $CPT $MAA $UDR $BX $NXRT $VNQ #dividends $XHB $BRG $APTS $CLPR $NEN $ACC $INVH $AMH $AIRC $BRT $CSR $IRT $BREIT $SREIT #cre #multifamily #apartments $TLT https://www.privateeyecapital.com/apartment-reits-are-cheap-again/ https://www.privateeyecapital.com/apartment-reits-are-cheap-again/" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1534865681337839616) 2022-06-09T11:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Despite Gray/Schwarzman continuously praising themselves on the 2Q call for delivering alpha $BX $BREITs sunbelt multifam did 16% SS NOI growth in 1H22 vs. 16%/17% @ $CPT / $MAA respectively. So. to be clear the difference in return came from. not being subject to the whims" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1552787516373078016) 2022-07-28T22:46Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "1/n Went ahead and closed $MAPS. Better to be lucky than good. Dug in &found several causes for concern: -64% of [----] rev came from CA. I suspect a large % of these revenues are coming from unlicensed MJ sellers (more detail to follow). -B/c $MAPS is likely promoting unlicensed. Picked up some $MAPS. Everything weed has gotten destroyed (many for good reason). But this is a branded marketing/SAAS/compliance biz for 1.5x rev in a rapidly growing industry. And sometimes the market gets really excited about pot stocks. https://t.co/9jxOQC0zP3 Picked up some $MAPS. Everything weed has gotten" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1559594610887835648) 2022-08-16T17:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "2/n operators I suspect this has created a strained relationship w/ #multistateoperators $MSOS like $VRNOF $CRLB $AAWH $TCNNF $GTBIF etc. Multistate operators represent just 5% of revenue for $MAPS. I view multistate operators as being the most likely source of industry growth" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1559595820697018368) 2022-08-16T17:39Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "A mix of #multifamily locations/vintages acquired @ $370k/door $MAA $AVB $ESS $UDR $CPT $EQR $NXRT $BX $IRT $BRT $VNQ $AIRC $AVI $BREIT $SREIT https://www.multihousingnews.com/bell-partners-acquires-313m-four-community-portfolio/ https://www.multihousingnews.com/bell-partners-acquires-313m-four-community-portfolio/" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1582709624322433024) 2022-10-19T12:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$BX's $BREIT reporting +0.5% return for September despite #REIT carnage. Looks like AUM ticked down $1 bn MoM. https://www.breit.com/performance/ https://www.breit.com/performance/" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1582726530995625984) 2022-10-19T13:33Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "h/t @pjkurzweil for his great work here: https://philippejkurzweil.substack.com/p/spectrum-brands-1-pager-summary https://philippejkurzweil.substack.com/p/spectrum-brands-1-pager-summary" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1598656343912886274) 2022-12-02T12:32Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$CRM CEO advocating return to the office Benioff seeing lower productivity from new hires /questions whether culture transmits without place. $BXP $KRC $HPP $VNO https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/16/marc-benioff-says-newer-salesforce-employees-are-less-productive.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/16/marc-benioff-says-newer-salesforce-employees-are-less-productive.html" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1604127527525498881) 2022-12-17T14:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "How much pre-tax FRE/share do you think $BX earns in 2023/ [----] BX had $2.5 bn gross/$1 bn net 'fee related performance income' flowing through the P&L TTM. Seems like that is going away. But they have $180 bn in drypow & are targeting another $150 bn cap raise What are good plays to fade BREIT concerns (other than $BX) What are good plays to fade BREIT concerns (other than $BX)" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1604201554289995776) 2022-12-17T19:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Some interesting historical data on 1-3 yr #REIT performance (abs & rel) when REITs traded at 20% or greater discount to NAV $VNQ #dividends $EQR $KRC $ESS $CPT $MAA $PLD $UDR $INVH $SPG $O $AMT $BXP https://www.janushenderson.com/social/article/public-vs-private-real-estate-similar-assets-different-prices-emea/ https://www.janushenderson.com/social/article/public-vs-private-real-estate-similar-assets-different-prices-emea/" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1611533352028323842) 2023-01-07T01:21Z [----] followers, 16.5K engagements "Some of my recent writeups: $INVH $EQR $NSA https://seekingalpha.com/article/4567662-national-storage-affiliates-stock-insiders-buying-strong-yield https://seekingalpha.com/article/4567386-equity-residential-stock-trading-cheap-sam-zell-favorite-valuation-metric https://seekingalpha.com/article/4568151-invitation-homes-buying-the-dip https://seekingalpha.com/article/4567662-national-storage-affiliates-stock-insiders-buying-strong-yield https://seekingalpha.com/article/4567386-equity-residential-stock-trading-cheap-sam-zell-favorite-valuation-metric" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1611534832617783297) 2023-01-07T01:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Can anyone point me to some good writeups on $UNP $CSX Thanks https://www.youtube.com/watchv=FVovq9TGBw0 https://www.youtube.com/watchv=FVovq9TGBw0" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1618628401677619202) 2023-01-26T15:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$430k/door $ESS - @$226/sh -$385k/door $EQR $AVB $UDR Carmel Partners & Affiliates Make Massive Apartment Portfolio Acquisition in Daly City Valued over $1.3B - The Registry https://t.co/kil7OdXTJR Carmel Partners & Affiliates Make Massive Apartment Portfolio Acquisition in Daly City Valued over $1.3B - The Registry https://t.co/kil7OdXTJR" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1620785576919306240) 2023-02-01T14:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Off to get overly caffeinated and read about $PKG $WRK $IP. Suggestions on writeups/podcasts/etc" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1620855315460939777) 2023-02-01T18:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$MAA - strong earn-in + decent renewals expected to drive same-store NOI growth of 5.3-7.3% in [----]. $CPT expects something similar (+5%) at the midpoint. Much has been made of supply coming to the sunbelt this year but Class B is priced 20% lower and should do just fine" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1621290503458394112) 2023-02-02T23:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$UDR expects 7.25-7.5% NOI growth in [--] (at midpt cash/st line). +1-2% higher than sunbelt guides $MAA $CPT. Driven by 5% earn-in + strength in renewals. $AVB $EQR $ESS #REITs #dividends #multifamily #gateway" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1622713577944784897) 2023-02-06T21:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562010-spectrum-brands-hhi-likely-to-close-shares-have-65-percent-upside https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562010-spectrum-brands-hhi-likely-to-close-shares-have-65-percent-upside" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1622987109526298624) 2023-02-07T15:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "https://seekingalpha.com/article/4546869-spectrum-brands-7share-in-fcf-without-hhi-sale https://seekingalpha.com/article/4546869-spectrum-brands-7share-in-fcf-without-hhi-sale" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1622987584204054528) 2023-02-07T15:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Soft guidance from Essex $ESS w/ [----] SSNOI expected at 3.6% (cash) /4.1% (str line). Expense growth looks high given 80% CA (Prop [--] limits prop tax g to 2%). $EQR $AVB $UDR #REITs $VNQ #dividends" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1623075522040467456) 2023-02-07T21:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$AVB - expects +4.25% SSNOI for [----] aided by 3.5% rev earn-in. W Coast E Coast. #REITs $EQR $UDR $ESS $VNQ #dividends #multifamily #CRE" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1623434309414850560) 2023-02-08T21:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$EQR [--] guide: SSNOI +5.5% (midpoint). 4-5% earn-in & strength in renewals (Jan +6.9%). $UDR $ESS $AVB #multifamily #REITs #dividends #cre" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1623799066768601088) 2023-02-09T21:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "So I write about a lot of apartment #REITs $AVB $CPT $EQR $ESS $MAA $UDR and am bullish. But here is the case against investing multifamily in [----] per Chat GPT. Pretty decent list (took [--] seconds). Also.This will be my last annoying ChatGPT Tweet of the evening:" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1623856416615432192) 2023-02-10T01:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@jay_21_ @ZinvestZ @bulldogcap22 @Lance0333 as their AFFO/sh is expected to be flattish (speaking about $AMT) now for the 3rd year in a row" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1629253651729629184) 2023-02-24T22:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@jay_21_ @ZinvestZ @bulldogcap22 @Lance0333 But.might $AMT $SBAC $CCI $CLNX be willing to buy $1-200+ mn worth of these assets at a [--] cap per year I suspect they would. W/ $90 mn in annual profit from the sale of these assets (incl orig expense) $135 mn from leases on owned port $50 mn of int expense $15 mn of o/h" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1629254859588530176) 2023-02-24T23:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$UNP - Soroban proposing Hunter Harrison disciple Jim Vena to replace Fritz at UNP $CSX $CNI $NSC" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1630001508665425920) 2023-02-27T00:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$AVB update- March/Apr renewal offers going out at +7%. On track for [----] +4.25% SSNOI guide. $EQR $UDR $ESS #REITs #dividends $VNQ" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1631783274963165185) 2023-03-03T22:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$ESS - No change to FY guide. Big tech laying off 3.5% of workforce in ESS markets. Most layoffs outside SF Bay/Seattle/LA" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1631787134549102592) 2023-03-03T22:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$CPT - +7% renewals (signed) in Jan/Feb (will moderate as year progresses). 95.3% occupancy (vs. 95.8% in 4Q22). Heavy Class B mix (60%) helps to mitigate impact of new supply (which comes on at 30+% higher than Cl B rents) $MAA $NXRT $IRT" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1631790439559987200) 2023-03-03T22:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$MAA at Citi conf: MF Permitting has come to a screeching halt Not super surprising given capital market conditions/const costs but should see a nice pickup in rents post 2H23-1H24 delivery deluge" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1633180716124221440) 2023-03-07T19:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Ugly week for #REITs. Bought the CA heavy stuff hard today: $KRC -10.7% overall cap. Office is 13+% stripping out MF/LifeSci @ [--]. $ARE -6.5% $ESS -5.9%; 370k/door $EQR -6.1%; $372k/d I $SIVB $FRC $SBNY $PACW doesn't sink the SF Bay/CA economy non CA: $MAA -5.9%; $218k/d" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1634335310489468928) 2023-03-10T23:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "What's the opposite of $SIVB $BAC $WFC $FRC large MTM losses on HTM securities Long-term low fixed rate debt $ARE #REITs" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1635391943109902336) 2023-03-13T21:26Z [----] followers, 21.2K engagements "https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559280-univar-solutions-high-quality-modestly-undervalued https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559280-univar-solutions-high-quality-modestly-undervalued" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1635612127301095426) 2023-03-14T12:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Layoffs in big tech $META weighing on office #REITs $BXP $KRC $HPP $DEI $VNO $SLG $CUZ $HIW $PDM $VNQ. There will almost certainly be more. This message from Zuck seems to suggest you are less likely to be forced to leave the company if you actually come to work. ZUCK: Our data shows that engineers "who either joined $META in-person and then transferred to remote or remained in-person performed better . than people who joined remotely. . I encourage all of you to find more opportunities to work . in person." https://t.co/pcNVpcs98m ZUCK: Our data shows that engineers "who either joined $META" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1635702282984763393) 2023-03-14T17:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Plenty of insider buying in financials $SCHW $BY $CCB $FITB $STEL $LKFN $VLY $SF $WTFC $TFC $FFIN $UPBK $UNTY among others https://www.insider-monitor.com/insider_trading_sortby_value-3.html https://www.insider-monitor.com/insider_trading_sortby_value-3.html" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1635788306821840896) 2023-03-14T23:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$MAPS mkt cap has fallen from $5 bn to $100 mn. While MJ industry $MSOS has many challenges with a net cash B/S and a valuation of just 4.5x 2023e EBITDA Weedmaps seems asymmetric here. $TCNNF $IIPR $GTBIF $CURLF $VRNOF 1/n" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1647281511065067520) 2023-04-15T16:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "1/n At $6.2/share Sportsmans Warehouse $SPWH is interesting-ish here. SPWH is trading 66% below $18 price at which Bass Pro/Cabela holding co Great Am Outdoors agreed to buy them in Feb [----]. $DKS $ASO $XRT $CAB $RGR $HIBB $SWBI $VSTO" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1648785469466087425) 2023-04-19T20:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "I'll say this is a feature for low leverage #REITs with access to the corp bond market. Not gonna see many new starts over next 12-24 mos (mayb longer if govt adds new bank regulations). Lower new supply benefits existing assets. $EQR $ESS $AVB $MAA $CPT $UDR $VNQ $KRC $HIW $ARE Munger negative on bank CRE loans His point on tightened CRE lending seems more important than the CRE risks (which seem slightly overstated) https://t.co/oVFZU2k3I0 Munger negative on bank CRE loans His point on tightened CRE lending seems more important than the CRE risks (which seem slightly overstated)" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1652774810387365888) 2023-04-30T20:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Confused bureaucrat does homerun trot after strikeout-idiotic policy like this+onerous building codes+ridiculous increase in transfer taxes (curtails merchant builders) and you can see why LA will never bring any meaningful multifamily supply to market. $ESS $EQR $AVB $UDR Today the new update to the Hollywood Community Plan passed in Council This plan had gone *35 YEARS* since its last update. Our office put immense effort into making sure the new plan benefited the needs of all our residents. Here are some impacts of these changes: Today the new update to the Hollywood Community Plan passed" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1655357168940646400) 2023-05-07T23:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "I have no idea when the pain in small cap land $IWM ends but I've pared my tech $QQQ exposure $GOOGL $META $UBER $CRM (getting close to fair value) and reallocated into $BRDG and $MRC which I see doubling or tripling w/o any heroic assumptions" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1656703949016293376) 2023-05-11T16:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$MRC's entire business has changed over the past [--] years. 75%+ of the company's biz came from mid/upstream in [----]. Now that number is 30%. Today largest customer group is gas utilities which has grown at a 10%+ CAGR over past decade. Not dependent on #oil /nat gas price any more" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1656791510602616832) 2023-05-11T22:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "For those interested there are some good writeups on (avail w/ guest access) chronicling the history/opportunity in $MRC. http://valueinvestorsclub.com http://valueinvestorsclub.com" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1656796639200444419) 2023-05-11T23:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "As for $BRDG I think it is suffering from fears of all things #CRE /#REITs / isn't $BX's $BREIT seeing persistent outflows. $BRDG is a relatively recent (2021 IPO) with very limited float (principals own like 75% of this) and very messy financials" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1656797182979362816) 2023-05-11T23:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "1/n Picked up some shopping center #REITs $SITC & $WSR both of which I have trading right around a [--] cap ($200/ft) here. $BRX $FRT $REG $KIM $KRG $UBA $SPG $MAC $PECO $ROIC" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1658502896626044931) 2023-05-16T16:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@KonekoResearch Any asset quality differential does not explain premium @ which $REG $KIM $FRT trade vs. $SITC $WSR $RPT. Seems there are more deals to be done in shopping center space" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1660783378608820225) 2023-05-22T23:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "From 2015-2022 $RH's OP increased 252%. $WSM was +217%. Both are structurally advantaged branded homewares w/ 60%+ ecom penetration. LT winners. Of course we could see OP decline meaningfully from supernormal 2021-22 levels. Big valuation differential tho" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1660790443142152193) 2023-05-22T23:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "I think $WSM normal OP settles out somewhere around $650 mn (vs. $1.5 bn in [----] and $466 mn in 2019) which works out to $7-7.50/sh in EPS. At 15-16x stock looks fairly valued here IMO but w/ retail $XRT stocks stumbling could get interesting quick" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1660791134300545024) 2023-05-22T23:33Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Given apparent LT structural advantages (brand e-com sourcing/logistics) competing in fragmented marketplace $WSM seems like a biz I'd like to own if it got cheap. Biggest concern is what caused OP to stall out from 2013-2019 was basically flat" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1660791830655668225) 2023-05-22T23:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@WealthOrDie There are reports that some long suffering $WBD shareholders crashed the event and got the boos going" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1661026828671414274) 2023-05-23T15:10Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "2013-2019 emergence of $W which grew US sales from $1b to $7.9b. $W US rev peaked at $11.9b in [----] falling to $10.5b in [--]. Could explain $WSM challenges 13-19. Also shows $WSM holding up much better post 2020" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1661133560554848256) 2023-05-23T22:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$W seems to be faltering. After generating $614 mn in adj EBITDA in [----] $W back to losing $$ at EBITDA line in [--]. Meanwhile $WSM generated record [--] OP. With $1+ bn in new B2B rev (growing faster than overall @ higher OPMs) it is possible that $WSM is a sustainably larger" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1661134814559506432) 2023-05-23T22:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "and more profitable biz. $WSM e-com biz has nearly doubled since [----] (scale). If co can sustainably achieve 15% OPM target on $8+ bn in sales normalized EPS is $14+. B/S is net cash. Stock might be far too cheap here at $112" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1661136552653893632) 2023-05-23T22:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@stillwell Showing up in occupancy/leasing #s for shopping centers. Despite widespread softness in retail $XRT retailers competing aggressively for available boxes. Multiple offers for boxes $BBBY is vacating @ huge spreads. I like $SITC $WSR $RPT $BRX here" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1661417335100669952) 2023-05-24T17:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$BBBY boxes leasing quickly & spreads are juicy. Balance of power in shopping center space has shifted to the landlord as leased occupancy is 95%+ for most of the #REITs $SITC $BRX $KRG $KIM $REG $WSR $FRT $ROIC $RPT $PECO. Interested in shopping centers Follow @jasonmiller15 @PrivateEyeCap @stillwell Some Q1 data points: $KIM in LOI or lease neg on [--] of [--] fmr Bed Bath boxes at 24% spread $RPT leased or is in LOI on [--] of [--] at 30-40% rent spread $BRX re-tenanted several of its BBB sites at 35-40% spreads $SITC reported 25-30% mark to mkt rent spread for its sites And @PrivateEyeCap" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1661465144919203840) 2023-05-24T20:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "2.leasing for small shops (sm shops have significantly higher rents than anchors). Most of the shopping center REITs have improved small shop occ from mid 80s to 90+. 3.Stronger anchors/traffic- lower cap rate. A center that is 40% leased to Staples $BBBY $PRTY (cont)" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1661483984789069825) 2023-05-24T21:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "3. and has 10+% vacancy (in a market that has 10+% vacancy) is going to sell for a (much) higher cap rate than one w/ $TJX $SFM $FIVE and 5% vacancy. [--]. ALSO all the shopping center #REITs have culled their weak assets & moved up the HHI/density plot. CAN'T STRESS THIS ENUFF" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1661484691860619264) 2023-05-24T21:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@jasonmiller15 Agree. Little has been built past decade. Replacement cost 2x implied P/sq ft @ which REITs are selling. Coupled w/ rising rates & dearth of development financing post $FRC $SIVB $SBNY means we are unlikely to see much get built" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1661507489974865920) 2023-05-24T23:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#REIT $VNQ selloff rising rates retailer $XRT weakness create opportunity in Shopping Center #REITs which benefit from WFH/suburban shift lack of new supply and portfolio rationalization #CRE $BRX $SITC $RPT $WSR $KRG $ROIC $REG $KIM $FRT $UBP $PECO https://www.privateeyecapital.com/stuff-i-post-on-twitter/ https://www.privateeyecapital.com/stuff-i-post-on-twitter/" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1663508715478347777) 2023-05-30T11:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@jasonmiller15 Cost of capital is high for $RPT $SITC $BRX $WSR-can only do one off type deals via capital recycling. $REG $KIM $FRT shares are more fully valued so they have a currency which allows them to be acquirers here-hence $REG buying $UBP w/ stock" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1663555112583966722) 2023-05-30T14:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Nice piece on $BRDG from @bizalmanac $BX $MAA $VNQ $EQR $ESS $AVB $CPT $NXRT $UDR $INVH $ELME $CLPR $WD $AMH $VRE $IRT $CSR $AIRC $BRT $NEN $KKR $APO $CG $TPG $AIV $TCN https://bizalmanac.substack.com/p/in-the-eye-of-three-storms https://bizalmanac.substack.com/p/in-the-eye-of-three-storms" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1671843713650393088) 2023-06-22T11:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Picked up a bit of $PENN. Tho unlikely to sustainably generate the FCF seen in 2021-22 I think company s/b able to do $2.40-2.80/share from the bricks and mortar ops alone. Anything from @barstoolsports @theScore sportsbetting is gravy. $CZR $MGM $LVS $WYNN $BALY $DKNG $FLTR" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1671983341963476992) 2023-06-22T20:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "I do worry about cap alloc as I suspect they squandered most of the $2 bn spent on @theScore (1/2 was done in stock when $PENN was trading in the 80s) but mgmt seems to be focused on buybacks w/ stock here in the low 20s" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1671983858320039936) 2023-06-22T20:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@theScore I also liked casinos better when they owned their RE $GLPI $VICI. Tons of op leverage post financial engineering but regionals have historically been resilient in downturns" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1671984567782346752) 2023-06-22T20:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@heartof_thesea Multifam #REIT balance sheets are very low leverage across the board $CPT $EQR $AVB $ESS $UDR. Nice opp here IMO as new const likely to be pretty low given rates/const costs/bank turmoil. While lots of supply coming in sunbelt in 23-24 s/b very low in 25-26. W/ dev expertise" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1672380543055585281) 2023-06-23T23:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@heartof_thesea and a strong B/S $MAA $CPT $AVB can develop for delivery into what should be a very strong market. Also well positioned to pick up new assets in lease up on the cheap as merchant builders may have to puke assets over the next 12-18 mos" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1672380939551506432) 2023-06-23T23:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Jaywramseyky @Mr_Neutral_Man @heartof_thesea i think they are all pretty reasonable if a bit too conservative - i.e. they all kept LTVs 30% or lower when they were able to borrow at sub 3%. part of the reason for this is to maintain access to relatively low cost borrowing in the corporate unsecured market. access to the" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1672603028443250690) 2023-06-27T13:54Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@Jaywramseyky @Mr_Neutral_Man @heartof_thesea corporate unsecured market is a nice competitive advantage now given relatively tight funding conditions. but even if these trade down to 7+% cap rates (and interest rates fall) i doubt any of these mgmt teams would execute a large levered buyback" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1672603609366933504) 2023-06-24T13:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Anyone know when $CZR becomes a meaningful cash tax payer Thanks $MGM $PENN $BALY $WYNN $LVS $BYD $GLPI $VICI $FLTR $DKNG $ENT" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1673027944397283329) 2023-06-25T17:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Can anyone point me to a good writeup of $GPN Thanks $FI $SQ $FIS $PYPL $ADYEY" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1673385627986034688) 2023-06-26T17:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$SPHR How many acts can do a 3-4 week Vegas residency and sell out 15k+ seats per night https://www.youtube.com/watchv=YeccUuvp-qc 0-7 8-15 23+ 15-22 https://www.youtube.com/watchv=YeccUuvp-qc 0-7 8-15 23+ 15-22" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1673763608369729536) 2023-06-27T18:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "In addition to advertising & selling sugar filled drinks causing the obesity epidemic looks like $KO $PEP #Diet products contain carcinogens. $KO $PEP score pretty well on #ESG score cards tho so it's all good. $ESGV $ESGU #farce #ESGtards https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/cocacolacompany/files/pages/cocacolacompany/db/761/description/December_2022_ESG_Overview.pdf Exclusive: Aspartame one of the world's most common artificial sweeteners is set to be declared a possible carcinogen next month by a leading global health body pitting it against the food industry and regulators" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1674492213072642053) 2023-06-29T18:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "#ESG leader $KO $PEP make everyone fat #DEI tells everyone to be proud of being fat #synergy #progress" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1674497723494699008) 2023-06-29T19:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Added some SIG PLC $SHI.LN which trades at 4x my 2026e EPS guesstimate. Likely to be a bumpy ride but riding alongside 28% owner CD&R in bldg products/bldg prod distribution has generally been a good thing $BECN & $CNR (Cornerstone -remainder acq'd by CD&R in 2022) Bought small positions in battered UK micocaps $KGH (law firm @ 4x EPS) and $MOTR (similar-ish to $KMX looks to be 5x normalized EPS). Anyone have any other UK small/microcap favorites trading at nonsensical valuations Bought small positions in battered UK micocaps $KGH (law firm @ 4x EPS) and $MOTR (similar-ish to $KMX looks to be" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1676883388022808576) 2023-07-06T09:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Maybe they'll let the ticker $SPHR float around on the Sphere in a town full of degenerate gamblers for 24h or so. A ripping share price could be a great proof of concept for potential advertisers. I see 15% short interest Could get meme-y $AMC $GME" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1677034028900429824) 2023-07-06T19:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Where would Twitter stock $TWTR be trading if it were still public @elonmusk $TSLA $META $QQQ" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1678461061715091457) 2023-07-10T18:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "I've sold most of my $SPHR" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1684282068291944449) 2023-07-26T19:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Seemingly massive $BRKA $BRKB premium in $KO: $MCD $PEP $GIS $HSY $VDC" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1685706575120629762) 2023-07-30T17:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Not loving my $RPT getting taken out by $KIM. Acquiring $RPT at an implied 8.2% cap rate; $KIM paying with shares trading at a 7% cap. #REITs $BRX $SITC $REG $FRT $WSR $PECO $KRG $ROIC $PECO $RPT https://t.co/jdZo20r0DW $RPT https://t.co/jdZo20r0DW" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1696161668932243799) 2023-08-28T14:03Z [----] followers, 15.7K engagements "@AnansiStocks yeah but they are paying with much more expensive/fully valued shares (smart for $KIM as deal is highly accretive) giving me ownership in something with minimal upside and not paying me a full price for what I own (I valued $RPT as being worth $15+ using a 7.2% cap rate)" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1696164721160818965) 2023-08-28T14:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Looks like $RPT management takes home $35 million bucks or so for giving away the company to $KIM. https://s23.q4cdn.com/496309205/files/doc_financials/2023/ar/rpt-2023-proxy.pdf https://s23.q4cdn.com/496309205/files/doc_financials/2023/ar/rpt-2023-proxy.pdf" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1696690651914801156) 2023-08-30T01:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$ESS @ BAML conf today touting the bull case for SF noting that remote work listings as % of listings has gone from 100% two years ago to single digits today $KRC $HPP $BXP $VNO $SLG $EQR $AVB $UDR $AIRC $ZM" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1701709347338772839) 2023-09-12T21:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Amidst retail $XRT sm cap $IWM bloodbath Ive taken a small position in $WOOF. Results have lagged as higher margin non-consumable sales have declined following covid super-adoption cycle. Near-term in anyones guess but long term I like (cont) $CHWY $FRPT $CL" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1704191005325484417) 2023-09-19T17:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "1/Humanization of pets driving spend. Later marriages/fewer births-spoiled pets. 2/Ongoing growth of higher margin services (training/vet/grooming) at $WOOF 3/valuation-trades at sub 6x EV/EBITDA vs. 10x @ which it was taken private in 2016" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1704191415301939436) 2023-09-19T17:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$WOOF $2.6 bn EV today vs. $4.6 bn when acquired in [----]. EBITDA has increased - significant multiple compression despite favorable tailwinds in pet retail. $CHWY $FRPT $CL $SJM $NESN $NSRGY $CVC" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1704243838494130490) 2023-09-19T21:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Anyone know offhand what % of Sysco's $SYY's Rev/OP comes from fast food Getting interesting here on #Ozempic fear but I suspect fast food $MCD $QSR $DPZ $WEN $PTLO $USFD $PZZA could be a real weak spot" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1710382218621895039) 2023-10-06T19:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$KIM $RPT $FRT $REG $SITC $BRX $PECO $KRG $VNQ #REITs https://seekingalpha.com/article/4639557-kimco-evaluating-after-rpt-acquisition-announcement https://seekingalpha.com/article/4639557-kimco-evaluating-after-rpt-acquisition-announcement" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1711077397133771220) 2023-10-08T17:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Looking @ Sysco. Double whammy of rates & #OZEMPIC. $SYY seems interesting at 15x forw P/E. Risks: 1/potential overearning on huge post-pandemic bounce in restaurant spend 2/dramatic OPM contraction seen from 09-14. Anyone know what happened from 09-14 Thks $USFD $PFGC $XLP" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1711097906546274502) 2023-10-08T19:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$NVO $SYY $XLP $PEP $KO $MDLZ $MCD $YUM $DPZ $QSR $USFD $PFGC https://seekingalpha.com/article/4639901-sysco-stock-evaluating-risks-weight-loss-drugs-weakening-economyv=1696942760#comment-96328040 https://seekingalpha.com/article/4639901-sysco-stock-evaluating-risks-weight-loss-drugs-weakening-economyv=1696942760#comment-96328040" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1711729363107139635) 2023-10-10T13:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$WOOF $CHWY $FRPT $CL $SJM $NESN $NSRGY https://seekingalpha.com/article/4638760-petco-heavily-discounted-despite-favorable-long-term-trends https://seekingalpha.com/article/4638760-petco-heavily-discounted-despite-favorable-long-term-trends" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1711754778601230720) 2023-10-10T14:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@AggieCapitalist MH/RV park owners $SUI $ELS are pretty interesting here IMO - almost no new supply of parks favorable demos (age 55+) and cheapest form of housing in an increasingly expensive housing market" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1711880593095733254) 2023-10-10T23:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Picked up some $SUI today. Recent price action/underperformance vs. $ELS suggests there is more bad UK news coming. That said I really like the business long term and think it is cheap here. $VNQ #REITs $UMH" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1712155152491360445) 2023-10-11T17:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Picked up some $SHC on the medical device maker $ZBH $SYK $BAX $RMD $BSX $IHI bloodbath. Duopoly HSD growth sterilization biz seems a bargain at 13x [----] EPS" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1712169086636216333) 2023-10-11T18:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "What is your favorite stock that has been #Ozempic'd I picked up sterilization leader Sotera $SHC and US Foods $USFD ( $SYY competitor which is a bit cheaper and may have more margin potential). $NVO" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1712583180627398675) 2023-10-12T21:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "What does one do after losing weight Buy new clothes #GLP-1 driven apparel buying boom (clothes no longer fit-replace entire wardrobe) could drive heavily shorted retailer Nordstroms $JWN much higher. $NVO $LLY #Ozempic $XLP $IHI $PEP $XRT" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1712826405388480727) 2023-10-13T13:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "#Ozempic $NVO $LLY food's pain $KO $PEP $LW $MDLZ $MCD $YUM $QSR $CMG $SYY $KHC $HSY $HRL could be retail $XRT and apparel's gain $JWN $KSS" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1712864113842700693) 2023-10-13T16:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Great piece from @Citrini7 $NVO $LLY- highlights need to replace entire wardrobe (maybe multiple times as weight falls over a [--] year period) after losing this much weight $JWN $KSS $XRT" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1712987128555270514) 2023-10-14T00:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@Citrini7 clothing. spend. supercycle. $JWN $XRT" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1713691164057240019) 2023-10-15T22:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Retail_Guru Not sure what uptake/success will be with #Ozempic $NVO $LLY but losing 10-20% of body weight absolutely necessitates purchase of an entirely new wardrobe. $JWN is interesting here IMO https://seekingalpha.com/article/4641004-nordstrom-weight-loss-drugs-could-drive-eps-much-higher https://seekingalpha.com/article/4641004-nordstrom-weight-loss-drugs-could-drive-eps-much-higher" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1713908769921638647) 2023-10-16T13:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Went on a long-duration (20+) #REIT unsecured bond shopping spree. Good #CRE Low LTVs (sub 40% Debt/ EBITDA 4.4-6x not much secured debt ahead of me). High 6-low 7s YTMs $ESS $EQR $AMH $VICI $REG $KIM $FRT #bonds $TLT #fixedincome #interestrates #yield #dividends #rates" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1714676275393257739) 2023-10-18T16:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@jay_21_ Looks like 4-wall coverage for the $BOWL assets acquired by $VICI was just 2.0x. I think $STOR originates w/ higher 3+ coverage. I don't see why you do this deal at a [---] cap. Perhaps $EPR bid aggressively to try to diversify away from $AMC $CNK" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1715515879889535003) 2023-10-20T23:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@jay_21_ They are all pretty reasonable IMO-none of them are out doing deals just to do deals. I don't worry about them doings something dumb. $ESS did best job taking adv of low rates and extending liab duration. $MAA has prob been a shrewd acquirer. $UDR prob doesn't get enough credit" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1716127768705187930) 2023-10-22T16:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Strong set of results from $AVB-bumped FY SSNOI guide to 6.3% from 6%. Setting up for a decent [----]. Bodes well for $EQR $ESS $UDR $AIRC. Also interesting is AVB bought [--] deals in sunbelt-look forward to hearing more about these on tomorrows call" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1717288177831145603) 2023-10-25T21:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$MAA-same trend reported last month @ BAML. 3Q23 New leases -2.2% for 3Q (vs. -1.3% for Jul/Aug). Renewals +5% (5.1% in Jul/Aug). Moveouts near all-time lows w/ housing affordability in the toilet. Cut FY23 NOI guide by [--] bps (to 6%) on expenses. MAA bot a lease up deal in PHX" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1717290014076555414) 2023-10-25T21:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$SUI better than feared given how terrible the stock has been. US operating perf strong across the board. Strong [----] outlook for rent-similar to $ELS last week. Int rates biting. And the UK loan default issue which surfaced last week discussed in results" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1717294677475598367) 2023-10-25T21:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$CPT-similar to $MAA seeing some weakness w/ blended leases signed in Oct going slightly negative (-3.3% new leases +4.3% renewal). Tenant turnover very low but bump in vacancy to 5.1% (+70 bps vs. 9/30). Cut FY NOI guide by [---] bps to 4.2%" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1717661797950644583) 2023-10-26T21:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "On today's call $MAA talked about a flat same store rev env (flat occ renewal hikes offset new lease declines) for [----]. If true assuming 4% exp growth points to NOI decline of -2.5%. Assuming things are a bit worse 1-2% rev decline & 4% exp g and you get -4-5% NOI decline" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1717663379886834095) 2023-10-26T22:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$WSR Another shopping center takeout Whitestone should be acquired by someone. Recent deals suggest fair value of $12-15 (7-8 cap). $RPT $KIM $REG $FRT $BRX $SITC $PECO $ROIC $KRG #REITs https://seekingalpha.com/news/4025157-whitestone-reit-jumps-amid-report-of-fortress-takeover-approach https://seekingalpha.com/news/4025157-whitestone-reit-jumps-amid-report-of-fortress-takeover-approach" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1717664920685391916) 2023-10-26T22:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$AVB bought #multifamily deals in the mid 4s (Dallas/Charlotte) as it looks to build presence outside the coast. Surprised they couldn't do better tbh" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1717683973726540020) 2023-10-26T23:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@downingstinvest seems like they had some [----] $$ they had to put to work but given rising rates/supply concerns/flagging economy you'd think they could at least do low-mid 5s. $MAA bot a lease up in PHX at a [---] (and that is depressed by concessions)" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1717686541789900894) 2023-10-26T23:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$ESS steady as she goes. FY SS NOI guide unch. Renewals strong" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1717688025436893250) 2023-10-26T23:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$UDR 74% coastal/26% sunbelt lowers FY SSNOI guide by [---] bps (cash basis -75bps GAAP) to +6.25%. Cites supply & incentives" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1717690571899437454) 2023-10-26T23:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "From $UDR call: Class B not showing the level of resilience seen in past cycles as heavy incentives from lease-ups have narrowed effective rent gap to 10% (for 1st year-w/b interesting to see what tenant does when effective rent spikes in [--] mos). $CPT $MAA $AVB $EQR $AIRC $ESS" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1718000117121527869) 2023-10-27T20:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "CBRE Prime Cl A #multifamily underwriting survey for 3Q23 $CBRE $JLL $AIRC $AVB $CPT $ESS $EQR $MAA $UDR #REITs https://www.cbre.com/insights/briefs/higher-rates-push-up-prime-multifamily-cap-rates-in-q3 https://www.cbre.com/insights/briefs/higher-rates-push-up-prime-multifamily-cap-rates-in-q3" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1718385276110991555) 2023-10-28T21:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Realty Income $O to buy $SRC $SRC taken out at a 7.7% cap rate. O leverages low cost of capital to make accretive deal for SRC which had a pretty good portfolio IMO #netlease $NNN $ADC $WPC $NTST #EPRT $BNL #REITs #dividends https://www.realtyincome.com/investors/press-releases/realty-income-acquire-spirit-realty-capital-93-billion-transaction https://www.realtyincome.com/investors/press-releases/realty-income-acquire-spirit-realty-capital-93-billion-transaction" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1718951957434679750) 2023-10-30T11:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@ajobst @ErnieBrownII 💯Will seem obvious in hindsight. From $CPT call" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1718961959511708074) 2023-10-30T12:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$MRC reportedly exploring a sale following 4% holder Engine Capital's activist push. Engine's targeted $14-18 equates to 6.5-8x EV/EBITDA / 10-12.6x 24e EPS. I'll guess $APO buys it. https://www.mdm.com/news/top-distributor-sectors/plumbing-products-pvf-distribution/report-activist-investor-urges-mrc-global-to-explore-sale/ https://www.mdm.com/news/top-distributor-sectors/plumbing-products-pvf-distribution/report-activist-investor-urges-mrc-global-to-explore-sale/" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1719069693187924145) 2023-10-30T19:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$PIPR upgrades $AVB to buy w/ $194 target (so like [---] cap @ target) and downgrades $UDR to $30 (so [--] cap). Both have mid 6s 23e SS NOI g. yes UDR has more sunbelt exposure (24% vs. 4%) but this is typical sellside #nonsense. #REITs #multifamily #REIT Headlines 10-31-2023 * Piper Sandler upgrades $AVB to Overweight from Neutral (lower price target by $3 to $194) * Piper Sandler downgrades $MAA to Neutral from Overweight (lower price target by $52 to $130) * Piper Sandler downgrades $CPT ($80) and $UDR ($30) to #REIT Headlines 10-31-2023 * Piper Sandler upgrades $AVB to Overweight from Neutral" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1719341739478319511) 2023-10-31T13:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "meanwhile $AVB is buying sunbelt in the mid 4s" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1719342291184414899) 2023-10-31T13:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$Z $ZG call - to paraphrase Rich Barton if #MLS or buyers agency goes away Zillow could potentially become Rightmove $RMV (which is a superior business). Lots of cards still to be turned over (this will be in courts for years) but I don't think he's necessarily wrong" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1719824630557610033) 2023-11-01T21:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Officially ballz deep $Z $ZG today" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1720202984028848206) 2023-11-02T22:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Insider buying the plunge in $MAA #REITs $CPT $NXRT $UDR $EQR $AVB $AIRC $BX $ESS https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000912595/49369a86-3da6-431e-93a3-a504612bbec9.pdf https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000912595/49369a86-3da6-431e-93a3-a504612bbec9.pdf" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1720204706306490755) 2023-11-02T22:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "In the extreme case where Sitzer/Burnett leads to an end to the use of buyers agents (similar to the UK or Australia) Rightmove's $RMV valuation (EV per inhabitant -similar # transactions per person in UK/US) suggests a $100/share value for $Z $ZG" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1720913345380073494) 2023-11-04T21:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "My article walking discussing #sitzerburnett potential impact on $Z $ZG $RMV $REA $NWS in extreme case where buyers agents are no longer prevalent #housing #NAR #MLS #commissions https://seekingalpha.com/article/4647823-zillow-potential-industry-disruption-big-positive https://seekingalpha.com/article/4647823-zillow-potential-industry-disruption-big-positive" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1721185816473690544) 2023-11-05T15:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "My article walking discussing potential impact of #sitzerburnett on $Z $ZG $RMV $REA $NWS in extreme case where buyers agents are no longer prevalent #housing #NAR #MLS #commissions https://seekingalpha.com/article/4647823-zillow-potential-industry-disruption-big-positive https://seekingalpha.com/article/4647823-zillow-potential-industry-disruption-big-positive" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1721186044752855118) 2023-11-05T15:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@GrandTokamak Not sure I agree for $OPEN which benefits from high commissions i.e. rather than pay 5-6% to a broker sell to us commission free (at a lower price). If commissions go down to 3-4% this likely hurts their competitiveness" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1721230929568686289) 2023-11-05T18:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$UBER cc gross bookings +20% YoY w/ EBITDA more than doubling (9.5% incremental EBITDA margin on bookings). Look at all that Free Cash Flow Well on track to deliver $5 bn in EBITDA & $2/sh in FCF in 2024" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1721862893224993191) 2023-11-07T12:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@AlwaysBeBullish IMO there is a moat for most hq shopping center #REITs insofar as replacement cost is 50-100% higher than where the REITs are trading. rents need to move much higher for any meaningful new supply. that's why you are seeing M&A $KIM $RPT $REG $UBA instead of new dev. $WSR" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1724898193954226525) 2023-11-15T21:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#shoppingcenters remain strong $SITC continuing to complete asset sales $KRG $BRX $KIM $WSR $REG $FRT $PECO $ROIC $REITs $VNQ $UE $IVT $BFS https://shoppingcenterbusiness.com/zrp-acquires-wando-crossing-in-south-carolina-for-46-8-million/ Yesterday's $SITC news is a big deal. 1/Sold 15% of total assets at a 6.5% cap vs the 9.3% at which Site trades. De-levers to 4x. 2/Spinning off convenience assets $CURB which have low capex (sub 10% of NOI) and are better than shopping centers $BRX $KRG $KIM $REG $FRT #REITs https://t.co/4ewzP6no9Y" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1725869111312580839) 2023-11-18T13:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@TheWeezGuy all the apt #REITs are very cheap here imo- $UDR stands out amongst coastal. love $CPT & $MAA here. amongst shopping centers $WSR and $SITC are cheapest (8.3-8.4% cap vs. 8% for $BRX/ $KRG & sub [--] for $REG $FRT). $SITC my fav shopping center" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1725973797986271578) 2023-11-18T20:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "I don't love the timeshare (sorry vacation clubs) biz but $VAC seems too cheap here. Prob won't hit their [----] $1.1-$1.2 bn EBITDA target (implies like $17-18/sh in FCF using historical conv rates) but should do like $9-11 most of which comes back to s/h. $HGV $TNL" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1729533937519910920) 2023-11-28T16:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Marginal cash cost of #natgas production in the US Anyone $BP $EQT $AR $RRC $SWN $XOM $UNG $UNG" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1731726773078089916) 2023-12-04T17:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$CAVA What's that smell An imminent Secondary They are gonna get ya all bulled up at the $MS conf first. Mediocre restaurant for a mere 44x 24e EBITDA. What's not to love Great #ESG. Cost of borrow is like 123% so i shat out a few calls. $CMG $MCD $WING $QSR $YUM $WEN $SHAK" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1731763620705456228) 2023-12-04T19:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$SPHR since when is [--] nights a residency Surprised more hasn't been announced for [----]. Would've thought Sphere w/b perfect for the Stones given their age/draw. Seems Sphere continues to burn cash too as evidenced by convert issuance" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1732032829259928048) 2023-12-05T13:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$SPHR Lack of progress on [----] bookings+ continued cash burn (assumed based on convert issuance)+Dolan = not getting back in despite pullback in price" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1732033334384156713) 2023-12-05T13:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@RealAssetsValue @rhunterh @thepupil11 @Mr_Neutral_Man @HawkinsEntrekin @stocksonnets -Most likely pick IMO is that $WSR gets acquired. -Much less likely but sensible IMO is that GIC (and a partner) acquire a large cap MF REIT say $AIRC $UDR $CPT or $MAA" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1733205797906366822) 2023-12-08T19:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Re the #Ohtani contract if $40 mn pa is deferred and paid out $10 mn pa (extending from years 11-51) then I get an equivalent value using a 5% disc rate (what value w/b w/o deferrals) is $405 mn over [--] years which seems pretty reasonable. #MLB #Dodgers #FreeAgency #baseball" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1733854702453010835) 2023-12-10T14:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "it's not that #Ohtani doesn't understand basic finance or that he doesn't care about $$$. It's because he discounts at 1%. Just pay me whenever. #MLB #Baseball #Dodgers #FreeAgency $TLT #interestrates" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1734367205830340782) 2023-12-12T00:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Lightened up an insy tinsy bit here. $Z $ZG" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1735013501306032450) 2023-12-13T19:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "1. Is it true that 51% of $PYPL's OP comes from x-border transactions [--]. Is this a more defensible biz $GPN $ADYEY $SQ $FIS $AAPL $FI #Stripe $AAPL https://business.columbia.edu/sites/default/files-efs/imce-uploads/Graham%20Doddsville%20Fall%202023%20Issue%20FINAL.pdf https://business.columbia.edu/sites/default/files-efs/imce-uploads/Graham%20Doddsville%20Fall%202023%20Issue%20FINAL.pdf" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1735089388340875387) 2023-12-14T00:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Took more $ZG $Z off the table. I am no longer ballz deep. But more than just the tip" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1735384646790345205) 2023-12-14T19:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@rhunterh i don't think so. 1/MF REIT cost of capital isn't great 2/gateway MF #REITs $EQR $AVB are looking to diversify away from CA. $ESS prob won't want all the other stuff. 3/sunbelt MF REITs aren't itching to get into CA" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1737534476325200060) 2023-12-20T18:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#Dodgers spending orgy continues with #Yamamoto Who is to blame #Charter/ #Spectrum $CHTR which pays LAD $335 mn pa for broadcast rights #MLB #MLBFreeAgency #baseball #LAD" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1738202741443281353) 2023-12-22T14:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Unsecured debt capital is available to the large cap apartment #REITs on reasonable terms (Camden issues [--] yrs @ 4.95% YTM): $CPT $MAA $UDR $EQR $ESS $AVB $AIRC $NXRT $IRT $VNQ #multifamily https://investors.camdenliving.com/investors/news-events-presentations/news/news-details/2024/Camden-Property-Trust-Prices-400-Million-4.900-Senior-Unsecured-Notes-Due-2034/default.aspx https://investors.camdenliving.com/investors/news-events-presentations/news/news-details/2024/Camden-Property-Trust-Prices-400-Million-4.900-Senior-Unsecured-Notes-Due-2034/default.aspx" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1742672392055595516) 2024-01-03T22:20Z [----] followers, 12.7K engagements "Unsecured debt capital is available to the large cap apartment #REITs on reasonable terms (Mid America issues [--] yrs @ 5.1% YTM): $MAA $CPT $UDR $EQR $ESS $AVB $AIRC $NXRT $IRT $VNQ #multifamily $WD $CBRE $JLL $CWK https://ir.maac.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2024/MAA-Announces-Pricing-of-Senior-Unsecured-Notes-Offering/default.aspx Unsecured debt capital is available to the large cap apartment #REITs on reasonable terms (Camden issues [--] yrs @ 4.95% YTM): https://t.co/eBhWQcmtoD $CPT $MAA $UDR $EQR $ESS $AVB $AIRC $NXRT $IRT $VNQ #multifamily" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1743050054343315928) 2024-01-04T23:21Z [----] followers, 15.6K engagements "$PX-added a good chunk here. I've got it at 10.7x 2024e FCF. Huge discount to large cap alts $BX $APO $KKR $TPG $CG. P10 is only mgmt fees (no carry) so won't get the bump to DE from anticipated boost to #IPO market but seems far to cheap for a very stable and growing FCF stream" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1743374250113958357) 2024-01-05T20:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "All native Chicagoans are required to update Portillo's model annually $PTLO annually. Here's my update: Could be an opp as I expect Berkshire Part(not $BRKA) to sell down Not cheap enuff [--] me but cheap vs. peers $MCD $SHAK $CMG $DRI $WING $DPZ $CAVA https://seekingalpha.com/article/4662605-portillos-getting-more-interesting-but-still-not-a-buy As a native Chicagoan I felt compelled to run the ruler on Portillo's $PTLO. @ 24x 2023e EBITDA I'll pass. I think they'll struggle to do better than 10% annual EBITDA growth given lower AUVs outside core Chicago market. #IPO lockup approaching $SHAK" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1746214155940708862) 2024-01-13T16:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "https://www.youtube.com/watchv=HB0YI0rUUuc https://www.youtube.com/watchv=HB0YI0rUUuc" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1746367044281635317) 2024-01-14T03:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@bizalmanac Idk anything about $CPNG but $FTCH seemed to have strong positioning w/ lux brands but was horribly mis-managed by Neves. He squandered $$ in a way which was almost unfathomable. $500m purch price could end up being a grand slam" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1746940184422432770) 2024-01-15T16:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@bizalmanac but it c/b that $FTCH is structurally doomed as 1/lux brands have the juice &can go direct/dictate terms 2/idk why peep buy this crap but mayb the dopamine hit for buyers is having a retail employee in a fancy store kiss their a$$ when they make purch which doesn't happen online" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1746943024561831985) 2024-01-15T17:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$EQR guiding to +1.8% NOI growth for FY24. Ever so-slight new lease acceleration (still neg) in Jan24 vs. 4Q23. Renewals remain strong at nearly 5%. East stronger than West (SF/Sea dragging while SoCal is strong). $AVB $AIRC $ESS #REITs $VNQ" [X Link](https://x.com/PrivateEyeCap/status/1752445055078654352) 2024-01-30T21:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@PrivateEyeCap Private Eye Capital
Private Eye Capital posts on X about $maa, $udr, $cpt, $eqr the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Engagements: [-----] #
- [--] Week [-----] -57%
- [--] Month [------] +159%
- [--] Months [-------] +85%
- [--] Year [-------] -26%
Mentions: [--] #
- [--] Month [--] -43%
- [--] Months [---] +46%
- [--] Year [---] -37%
Followers: [-----] #
- [--] Week [-----] +0.11%
- [--] Month [-----] +0.61%
- [--] Months [-----] +6.90%
- [--] Year [-----] +9.30%
CreatorRank: [---------] #
Social Influence
Social category influence stocks cryptocurrencies finance technology brands currencies mlb financial services countries social networks automotive brands
Social topic influence $maa, $udr, $cpt, $eqr, $avb, $ess, $vnq, $bx, $invh, reit
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @mrneutralman @realassetsvalue @jay21 @thepupil11 @yenoms @rhunterh @recoverytrade @jasonmiller15 @jaywramseyky @theweezguy @jayparsons @slicetransverse @sinstockpapi @bizalmanac @heartofthesea @andrewrangeley @shortbusace @masasoncap @thescore @ajobst
Top assets mentioned Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc (MAA) UDR, Inc. (UDR) Camden Property Trust (CPT) Equity Residential (EQR) Autonomous Virtual Beings (AVB) Earth [--] Essence (ESS) Blackstone, Inc. (BX) Invitation Homes, Inc. (INVH) Independence Realty Trust Inc. (IRT) Apartment Income REIT Corp. (AIRC) American Homes [--] Rent (AMH) SITE Centers Corp. Common Shares (SITC) Sui (SUI) Kimco Realty Corp (KIM) BRIXMOR PROPERTY GROUP INC. (BRX) Regency Centers Corp (REG) Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT) Kite Realty Group Trust (KRG) Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR) Apollo Global Management, Inc. (APO) Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) Ethlas (ELS) Rexford Industrial Realty, Inc. (REXR) Phillips Edison & Company, Inc. (PECO) Charter Communications Inc (CHTR) Robonomics Network (XRT) VICI Properties, Inc. (VICI) BRT Apartments Corp (BRT) First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc. (FR) KKR & Co, Inc. (KKR) Curbline Properties Corp. (CURB) STORE Capital, Corp. (STOR) Kilroy Realty Corp. (KRC) Prologis Inc (PLD) Bridge Oracle (BRG) McDonald's Corp (MCD) Salesforce Inc (CRM) Walker & Dunlop, Inc. (WD) WP Carey, Inc. (WPC) National Retail Properties, Inc. (NNN) Coca-Cola Co (KO) PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP) Zillow Group, Inc. (ZG) Driven Brands Holdings Inc. (DRVN) Boston Properties, Inc. (BXP) Altice USA, Inc. Class A Common Stock (ATUS) Carlyle Group, Inc. (CG) Gaming and Leisure Properties, Inc. (GLPI) Portillo’s Inc. (PTLO) Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) American Tower Corp (AMT) TPG Inc. (TPG) CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA) Public Storage (PSA) Apartment Investment and Management Company (AIV) Liberty Media Corporation Series A Liberty Braves Common Stock (BATRA) Clipper Realty Inc. Common Stock (CLPR) AudioCoin (ADC) SPDR S&P [---] ETF Trust (SPY) Nordstrom, Inc. (JWN) Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI) Basis Cash (BAC) Wall Street Memes (WSM) PENN Entertainment Inc (PENN) MGM Resorts International (MGM) Sphere Entertainment Co. (SPHR) Novo-Nordisk (NVO)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"$EQR Equity Residential: MEGACITIES will thrive and the PRIVATE MARKET SCREAMS BUY https://www.privateeyecapital.com/equity-residential-the-megacity-will-thrive-and-the-private-market-screams-buy/ https://www.privateeyecapital.com/equity-residential-the-megacity-will-thrive-and-the-private-market-screams-buy/"
X Link 2020-08-17T12:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$ESS - great 3Q results. Improved trends in key metrics heading into Oct. Mgmt optimistic on 2H21 inflection. Private market strong with most apartment values at or above pre-pandemic levels. My fair value est remains $350/sh. #reit #dividend $AVB $EQR https://www.privateeyecapital.com/essex-property-trust-3q-results-pretty-pretty-good/ https://www.privateeyecapital.com/essex-property-trust-3q-results-pretty-pretty-good/"
X Link 2020-10-30T13:05Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$AIV $EQR $ESS $AVB $CPT $MAA $UDR $VNQ #reits #dividends yesterday it was disclosed that AIV received a buyout approach though there was no discussion of price. Today I take a look at what AIV/apartment REITs could be worth to private buyers. https://www.privateeyecapital.com/aiv-gets-approached-will-we-see-bids-for-other-apartment-reits/ https://www.privateeyecapital.com/aiv-gets-approached-will-we-see-bids-for-other-apartment-reits/"
X Link 2020-12-03T13:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"There are few better investors than the Great John Malone. Malone has been "buying substantial interests in multifamily properties". $ESS $EQR $AVB $CPT #reits $BATRA $GLIBA $CHTR $SIRI $LBRDK $MAA $CLPR $NEN https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/11/19/liberty-medias-john-malone-says-heas-buying-hard-assets-in-bet-on-currency-devaluation.html https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/11/19/liberty-medias-john-malone-says-heas-buying-hard-assets-in-bet-on-currency-devaluation.html"
X Link 2021-01-13T01:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Are Mobile Home Park operator $SUI and $ELS the best real estate businesses #reits #dividends $TLT $VNQ $XLRE 1/No supply concerns - supply is flat over time. Many parks converted to higher & better use while NIMBYism and high land costs prevent new supply from being added"
X Link 2021-01-16T19:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$AVB $EQR $UDR $ESS $CLPR $NEN This out after hours -Occupancy picking up and rents stabilizing in urban core apartments AHEAD of vaccine rollout at AVB: #reits #dividends #investing $VNQ $TLT"
X Link 2021-02-03T21:49Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$ESS similar to $AVB we see a pickup in occupancy and stabilizing sequential revenue/NOI trends. Also good to see a resumption of buyback @ Essex (especially given the large discount to my estimated $350/share NAV) #reits $VNQ $EQR $UDR"
X Link 2021-02-04T21:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Inflation $TLT worries=opportunity to invest in single family rental leader Invitation Homes $INVH. At $28/sh implies 4.8% [----] cap rate. Trades at 5-10% discount to NAV. $AVB $EQR $CPT $MAA $ESS $VNQ $AMH $XLRE #reits #dividends SHOULD trade at premium to NAV-Platform value:"
X Link 2021-03-05T18:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$EQR #reits #dividends so it was a SELL at $50 but is a hold at $72. Got it. Great work Zelman. $AVB $BXP $ESS $UDR $SPG $O https://www.themarketsdaily.com/2021/03/23/equity-residential-nyseeqr-upgraded-by-zelman-associates-to-hold.html https://www.themarketsdaily.com/2021/03/23/equity-residential-nyseeqr-upgraded-by-zelman-associates-to-hold.html"
X Link 2021-03-23T20:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$AMH American Homes4Rent providing more confirmation that Single Family Rental market is on fire: +10% rent growth on new leases in the 1Q (+11% in April). Lots of demand/ too few houses for rent. $INVH $VNQ #reits #dividends #SFR #singlefamilyrental"
X Link 2021-05-06T21:32Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"I believe $STOR model trumps $O $WPC $NNN $ADC $NTST etc. Consider: $VNQ $XLRE $TLT If you had to buy a long term NNN retail play and there was NO corp guarantee what tenant would it be ( lets exclude chick fila) Here is mine: any well located super WaWa In southeastern PA or Southern NJ $$ printers Who are you taking If you had to buy a long term NNN retail play and there was NO corp guarantee what tenant would it be ( lets exclude chick fila) Here is mine: any well located super WaWa In southeastern PA or Southern NJ $$ printers Who are you taking"
X Link 2021-05-08T13:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"1/n I don't think I'd be too excited to be a Vonovia $VNA $VNA.de $VNA.gr shareholder in the wake of its acquisition of Deutsche Wohnen. $DWNI $DWNI.de $DWNI.gr #reits #merger #dividends"
X Link 2021-05-25T01:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"30 min [--] sec into the podcast Spencer cites KPMG Aug [----] survey: 70% of CEOs expected to use less office space. March [----] KPMG survey: only 17% of those same CEOs expect to use less office space. $KRC is my favorite pick in the office sector $SLG $BXP $VNO #reits #dividends What will cities look like in the future What about the suburbs @Richard_Florida and @RichardJBarkham address these and other compelling topics on #TheWeeklyTake. Listen at https://t.co/PgLGVd351o https://t.co/CIroasu9Jr What will cities look like in the future What about the suburbs @Richard_Florida and"
X Link 2021-05-25T18:16Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Anyone following the $hitshow @ Bluerock Residential $BRG Without peeking I doubt anyone would guess the chart below is that of a pureplay sunbelt multifamily #REIT:"
X Link 2021-06-08T21:18Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$BRG it could be argued that the company exists only to issue preferred stock. This year Bluerock Resi targets $400 mn in pref issuance. They pay 10% to do this to a RELATED PARTY -- $40 mn to management or $1 per share (10% of market cap). #ESG #reits #dividends"
X Link 2021-06-09T18:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@thepupil11 Somewhat similar to what you've done with $LEN/ $LENB I did a covered call share class mix & match with $DISCK/ $DISCA. Spread isn't nearly as wide but assuming $T deal closes there will be just one class of shares in 12-14 months"
X Link 2021-06-20T20:32Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@hesamagicman101 $AHT $AINC Monty Bennett = asymptote zero"
X Link 2021-07-03T00:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"I'm not involved in the Bluerock $BRG trainwreck but if I were I'd certainly be voting against ALL nominees for director. If mgmt could be removed this #sunbelt #multifamily #REIT has 60%+ upside to NAV. #REITs #dividends $CPT $MAA https://s23.q4cdn.com/376743338/files/docs_proxy/2021/BRG-2021-Proxy-Statement-and-Notice-of-Annual-Shareholders-Meeting.pdf $BRG it could be argued that the company exists only to issue preferred stock. This year Bluerock Resi targets $400 mn in pref issuance. They pay 10% to do this to a RELATED PARTY -- $40 mn to management or $1 per share (10% of market cap)."
X Link 2021-07-08T00:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$ESS I sold a good chunk of my Essex shares over the past week. Was a total no-brainer at time of purchase (only the sellside $GS $MS $C $PIPR missed it). Big move for such a low risk stock in less than one year. Now trading more or less at NAV. $VNQ #dividends #reits $EQR $AVB $ESS $EQR $AVB #REIT #investing Are you a long term investor Do yourself a favor-don't listen to the sellside (i.e. Goldman Citi Morgan Stanley) brokers - think for yourself & do your own work. Goldman recommendations are really 'entertainment only'. https://t.co/1KRdgw63Qy $ESS $EQR $AVB #REIT #investing Are you a"
X Link 2021-07-21T15:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$ATUS - took a position in Altice USA. 9x EV/EBITDA 10x FCFE for an incredibly stable/economically resilient business with pricing power which should grow 3-5%. Putting pretty much ALL FCF into buybacks which are very accretive here. $CHTR $CMCSA $CABO $VZ $T"
X Link 2021-07-29T18:43Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@DalhiMackle @MasaSonCap @sinstockpapi Lack of scale implies some large fixed cost hurdle (R&D for software/tech content spend for media etc). Not an issue here. High mkt sh in ares they operate. Unlikely to sell but PE would buy in a heartbeat aka 49% of Lightpath to $MS Infr Partners at 15x EBITDA"
X Link 2021-08-03T02:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"(1/n) As recent fund raising efforts show Institutional Investors cannot seem to get enough Private Equity exposure. This has been reflected in share prices of $KKR $BX $CG $APO. And with the 10y UST @ 1.2% with near all time low high yield spreads why not It is logical"
X Link 2021-08-06T11:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Obvious guy says "unhealthy" is incinerating your clients money $HSGFX during the greatest bull market of all time Like how is that even possible #delusional #mutualfunds $IWM $SPY $ARKK"
X Link 2021-08-17T23:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@andyolivastro @libertymdus #ESG as we sit today is mindless (or worse) box checking. Merely a feature of a product. Less thought applied than in a high school humanities class. One case in point: $KO and $PEP populate #ESGInvesting portfolios. There's no thinking here. $USXF clipping fees though"
X Link 2021-08-29T14:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@sinstockpapi I also like $BTI $MO as a 'short' of the mindless #ESG #ESGinvesting monster w/o the unlimited downside risk. How is owning $KO ok (covertly kill) but $BTI (acknowledge health risk) not ok $USXF $USSG $DSI #hypocracy #NoThoughtAllowed $SPY $QQQ $IWM $PEP"
X Link 2021-09-03T00:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"I concur professor #ESG $SPY $IWM $TLT $ARKK $ESGU $ESGE $ESGD $ESGV $SUSL $USGG $USXF https://seekingalpha.com/news/3739730-dean-of-valuation-aswath-damodaran-sees-no-good-points-in-esg#comments https://seekingalpha.com/news/3739730-dean-of-valuation-aswath-damodaran-sees-no-good-points-in-esg#comments"
X Link 2021-09-14T23:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"IMO $BRG will NOT get sold. Mgmt owns the broker dealer that earns 10% fees on pref issuances. Hence BRG's targeted $400 mn in prefs issuance this year. So mgmt can re-direct $40 mn from s/hs to themselves. #reits #dividends $MAA $CPT $NXRT #kleptocracy Multifamily landlord Bluerock Residential Growth REIT is exploring options including an outright sale New $BRG https://t.co/CbrxuhHywq Multifamily landlord Bluerock Residential Growth REIT is exploring options including an outright sale New $BRG https://t.co/CbrxuhHywq"
X Link 2021-09-17T00:01Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"My tirade on $BRG from June. Mgmt incented to remain the world's worst performing sunbelt #REIT: Anyone following the $hitshow @ Bluerock Residential $BRG Without peeking I doubt anyone would guess the chart below is that of a pureplay sunbelt multifamily #REIT: https://t.co/c7EMBmteaC Anyone following the $hitshow @ Bluerock Residential $BRG Without peeking I doubt anyone would guess the chart below is that of a pureplay sunbelt multifamily #REIT: https://t.co/c7EMBmteaC"
X Link 2021-09-17T00:18Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#ESG at Facebook $FB $SPY $IWM $TLT $ARKK #FcuktheESGtards $ESGU $ESGE $ESGD $ESGV $SUSL $USGG $USXF Cool cool. https://t.co/zTnU104uGC https://t.co/2cp14teyrl Cool cool. https://t.co/zTnU104uGC https://t.co/2cp14teyrl"
X Link 2021-09-21T13:32Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$OPEN $Z $QQQ $ARKK 1/2 $Z comes out and says iBuying business is flawed (despite their data advantages) and does not/will not work. $OPEN trades UP 7% AH. One less competitor yes BUT (cont) 1/2 $Z comes out and says iBuying business is flawed (despite their data advantages) and does not/will not work. $OPEN trades UP 7% AH. One less competitor yes BUT (cont)"
X Link 2021-11-02T21:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Kleptocracy continues at $BRG -raised another $115 mn via unnecessary issuance of more high cost prefs (mgmt pockets $11.5 mn). NO Q&A on conf call. Gets my vote for worst run #REIT. Too bad--NAV here is $30++ given rent growth/cap compression in #sunbelt. #dividends IMO $BRG will NOT get sold. Mgmt owns the broker dealer that earns 10% fees on pref issuances. Hence BRG's targeted $400 mn in prefs issuance this year. So mgmt can re-direct $40 mn from s/hs to themselves. #reits #dividends $MAA $CPT $NXRT #kleptocracy IMO $BRG will NOT get sold. Mgmt owns the broker dealer that earns 10% fees"
X Link 2021-11-05T20:49Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@O_o_JHS Can't compare to global. UK/Australia do NOT have an MLS system. As such $RMV is the equiv of a for profit consumer facing MLS. Vastly superior industry structure/biz model"
X Link 2021-11-23T00:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$JWN -Rack massively underperforming $TJX $ROST (comps up DD at TJX/ROST vs. [----] whereas NordRack down) while department store lags $M $DDS $KSS. Great brand terrible execution. Family should probably sell this to someone who can actually operate. $XRT https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/23/nordstrom-jwn-q3-2021.html https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/23/nordstrom-jwn-q3-2021.html"
X Link 2021-11-23T21:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"A little insider buying @ $VICI #reits #dividends $GLPI $MGP $O $STOR $NNN https://investors.viciproperties.com/sec-filings/default.aspx https://investors.viciproperties.com/sec-filings/default.aspx"
X Link 2021-11-24T22:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$PLAY is in a position of strength (a [--] week shutdown would add 0.25x turn to ND/EBITDA so 1.5-1.75x). Should this happen I'd expect that: A/Comps will go bust and D&B would emerge stronger B/Another round of stimulus which would make for another solid re-opening/record results"
X Link 2021-12-17T23:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"As a native Chicagoan I felt compelled to run the ruler on Portillo's $PTLO. @ 24x 2023e EBITDA I'll pass. I think they'll struggle to do better than 10% annual EBITDA growth given lower AUVs outside core Chicago market. #IPO lockup approaching $SHAK $MCD $CAKE $DRI $WING $CMG"
X Link 2022-01-12T23:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Went on a shopping spree for #REITs and #dividends today- bought: $AMT $ARE $ELS $EQIX 1st time buy in $HIW -starter position/just started studying $RADI and a bunch more $STOR - best of the #NNN bunch IMO"
X Link 2022-02-10T21:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Nibbling on uggos: $C $ALLY $KBH $MHO $IWM $SPY #deepvalue $KBE https://www.privateeyecapital.com/things-i-dont-much-like-that-ive-nibbled-on/ https://www.privateeyecapital.com/things-i-dont-much-like-that-ive-nibbled-on/"
X Link 2022-04-05T12:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Some thoughts on opportunities in shares of economically resilient infrastructure assets with inflation protection: $AMT $CCI $SBAC $HTWS $HTWS.LN $RADI $VNQ $CLNX #reits https://www.privateeyecapital.com/other-things-ive-done-pt-2-towers/ https://www.privateeyecapital.com/other-things-ive-done-pt-2-towers/"
X Link 2022-04-06T12:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$HPP concerns over peak content are overdone. Studio assets are sub 15% of value. Leasing trends positive in key markets. Stripping out studio $HPP trades at an implied cap of nearly 8%. Too cheap for a largely Cl A portfolio in supply constrained markets. #reits $KRC $BXP $BX"
X Link 2022-04-29T14:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@BearForce_Won @gatorcapital - i.e. when the capital markets shut down it doesn't create a capital crisis for $APO. Excluding an incentive related earnings (carry) APO trades at 11x aft-tax earnings should grow 15% pa and yields 3%. W/ no re-rating it is priced to return 18% annually"
X Link 2022-05-01T19:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Fed put may be dead but $BX /B-REIT put is alive and well for multifamily. $MAA / $CPT seem like asymmetric bets here. $APTS $ACC $BRG #REITs Now that most all the US MF REITs have reported. Still a couple names I haven't added to my DIY comp sheet (like $NEN) but choose your fighter. Go @J264B @wsnh89 @hybridvigorish @thepupil11 @Mr_Neutral_Man https://t.co/DuN4T6je48 Now that most all the US MF REITs have reported. Still a couple names I haven't added to my DIY comp sheet (like $NEN) but choose your fighter. Go @J264B @wsnh89 @hybridvigorish @thepupil11 @Mr_Neutral_Man"
X Link 2022-05-10T18:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Lots of inventory out there in the wonderful world of retail $XRT. From today's $BURL call:"
X Link 2022-05-26T22:59Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Been buying some #REITs today - $ESS $MAA $CPT $KRC and $ARE ahead of #REITweek . $ESS put out a presentation Fri which included a guidance hike. I have $ESS at a 4.5% cap rate vs. recent private market transactions in the mid 3s - from 1Q22 conf call:"
X Link 2022-06-06T17:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Apartment rents ripping. This is the deceleration narrative I suspect the sellside #REIT-ards $C $BAC $WFC $CS $UBS $GS $PIPR $JEF may glom on to for MF #REITs $MAA $CPT $AVB $UDR etc-some BS like 'we recommend waiting on the sidelines until rents accelerate'. Misses bigger story Rents are still accelerating in most of the country. But there are a handful of exceptions where the peak might be in the rearview mirror. There's a common narrative that the Coasts are accelerating and the Sun Belt decelerating but it's not exactly that cut and dry. (thread) https://t.co/4R1p2o3P64 Rents are still"
X Link 2022-06-08T15:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"which is the massive rise in private REIT fund flows (see my last few Tweets). Also huge rent spreads experienced YTD suggest solid earn-in and strong NOI growth for [----] (I'll say 5+% for group as a whole - faster for $ESS). As such you are looking at 4.9-5 caps on [----] #s"
X Link 2022-06-08T16:01Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Here's my writeup on what I believe to be a great opportunity in the apartment #REITs: $AVB $ESS $EQR $CPT $MAA $UDR $BX $NXRT $VNQ #dividends $XHB $BRG $APTS $CLPR $NEN $ACC $INVH $AMH $AIRC $BRT $CSR $IRT $BREIT $SREIT #cre #multifamily #apartments $TLT https://www.privateeyecapital.com/apartment-reits-are-cheap-again/ https://www.privateeyecapital.com/apartment-reits-are-cheap-again/"
X Link 2022-06-09T11:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Despite Gray/Schwarzman continuously praising themselves on the 2Q call for delivering alpha $BX $BREITs sunbelt multifam did 16% SS NOI growth in 1H22 vs. 16%/17% @ $CPT / $MAA respectively. So. to be clear the difference in return came from. not being subject to the whims"
X Link 2022-07-28T22:46Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"1/n Went ahead and closed $MAPS. Better to be lucky than good. Dug in &found several causes for concern: -64% of [----] rev came from CA. I suspect a large % of these revenues are coming from unlicensed MJ sellers (more detail to follow). -B/c $MAPS is likely promoting unlicensed. Picked up some $MAPS. Everything weed has gotten destroyed (many for good reason). But this is a branded marketing/SAAS/compliance biz for 1.5x rev in a rapidly growing industry. And sometimes the market gets really excited about pot stocks. https://t.co/9jxOQC0zP3 Picked up some $MAPS. Everything weed has gotten"
X Link 2022-08-16T17:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"2/n operators I suspect this has created a strained relationship w/ #multistateoperators $MSOS like $VRNOF $CRLB $AAWH $TCNNF $GTBIF etc. Multistate operators represent just 5% of revenue for $MAPS. I view multistate operators as being the most likely source of industry growth"
X Link 2022-08-16T17:39Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"A mix of #multifamily locations/vintages acquired @ $370k/door $MAA $AVB $ESS $UDR $CPT $EQR $NXRT $BX $IRT $BRT $VNQ $AIRC $AVI $BREIT $SREIT https://www.multihousingnews.com/bell-partners-acquires-313m-four-community-portfolio/ https://www.multihousingnews.com/bell-partners-acquires-313m-four-community-portfolio/"
X Link 2022-10-19T12:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$BX's $BREIT reporting +0.5% return for September despite #REIT carnage. Looks like AUM ticked down $1 bn MoM. https://www.breit.com/performance/ https://www.breit.com/performance/"
X Link 2022-10-19T13:33Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"h/t @pjkurzweil for his great work here: https://philippejkurzweil.substack.com/p/spectrum-brands-1-pager-summary https://philippejkurzweil.substack.com/p/spectrum-brands-1-pager-summary"
X Link 2022-12-02T12:32Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$CRM CEO advocating return to the office Benioff seeing lower productivity from new hires /questions whether culture transmits without place. $BXP $KRC $HPP $VNO https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/16/marc-benioff-says-newer-salesforce-employees-are-less-productive.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/16/marc-benioff-says-newer-salesforce-employees-are-less-productive.html"
X Link 2022-12-17T14:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"How much pre-tax FRE/share do you think $BX earns in 2023/ [----] BX had $2.5 bn gross/$1 bn net 'fee related performance income' flowing through the P&L TTM. Seems like that is going away. But they have $180 bn in drypow & are targeting another $150 bn cap raise What are good plays to fade BREIT concerns (other than $BX) What are good plays to fade BREIT concerns (other than $BX)"
X Link 2022-12-17T19:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Some interesting historical data on 1-3 yr #REIT performance (abs & rel) when REITs traded at 20% or greater discount to NAV $VNQ #dividends $EQR $KRC $ESS $CPT $MAA $PLD $UDR $INVH $SPG $O $AMT $BXP https://www.janushenderson.com/social/article/public-vs-private-real-estate-similar-assets-different-prices-emea/ https://www.janushenderson.com/social/article/public-vs-private-real-estate-similar-assets-different-prices-emea/"
X Link 2023-01-07T01:21Z [----] followers, 16.5K engagements
"Some of my recent writeups: $INVH $EQR $NSA https://seekingalpha.com/article/4567662-national-storage-affiliates-stock-insiders-buying-strong-yield https://seekingalpha.com/article/4567386-equity-residential-stock-trading-cheap-sam-zell-favorite-valuation-metric https://seekingalpha.com/article/4568151-invitation-homes-buying-the-dip https://seekingalpha.com/article/4567662-national-storage-affiliates-stock-insiders-buying-strong-yield https://seekingalpha.com/article/4567386-equity-residential-stock-trading-cheap-sam-zell-favorite-valuation-metric"
X Link 2023-01-07T01:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Can anyone point me to some good writeups on $UNP $CSX Thanks https://www.youtube.com/watchv=FVovq9TGBw0 https://www.youtube.com/watchv=FVovq9TGBw0"
X Link 2023-01-26T15:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$430k/door $ESS - @$226/sh -$385k/door $EQR $AVB $UDR Carmel Partners & Affiliates Make Massive Apartment Portfolio Acquisition in Daly City Valued over $1.3B - The Registry https://t.co/kil7OdXTJR Carmel Partners & Affiliates Make Massive Apartment Portfolio Acquisition in Daly City Valued over $1.3B - The Registry https://t.co/kil7OdXTJR"
X Link 2023-02-01T14:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Off to get overly caffeinated and read about $PKG $WRK $IP. Suggestions on writeups/podcasts/etc"
X Link 2023-02-01T18:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$MAA - strong earn-in + decent renewals expected to drive same-store NOI growth of 5.3-7.3% in [----]. $CPT expects something similar (+5%) at the midpoint. Much has been made of supply coming to the sunbelt this year but Class B is priced 20% lower and should do just fine"
X Link 2023-02-02T23:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$UDR expects 7.25-7.5% NOI growth in [--] (at midpt cash/st line). +1-2% higher than sunbelt guides $MAA $CPT. Driven by 5% earn-in + strength in renewals. $AVB $EQR $ESS #REITs #dividends #multifamily #gateway"
X Link 2023-02-06T21:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562010-spectrum-brands-hhi-likely-to-close-shares-have-65-percent-upside https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562010-spectrum-brands-hhi-likely-to-close-shares-have-65-percent-upside"
X Link 2023-02-07T15:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4546869-spectrum-brands-7share-in-fcf-without-hhi-sale https://seekingalpha.com/article/4546869-spectrum-brands-7share-in-fcf-without-hhi-sale"
X Link 2023-02-07T15:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Soft guidance from Essex $ESS w/ [----] SSNOI expected at 3.6% (cash) /4.1% (str line). Expense growth looks high given 80% CA (Prop [--] limits prop tax g to 2%). $EQR $AVB $UDR #REITs $VNQ #dividends"
X Link 2023-02-07T21:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$AVB - expects +4.25% SSNOI for [----] aided by 3.5% rev earn-in. W Coast E Coast. #REITs $EQR $UDR $ESS $VNQ #dividends #multifamily #CRE"
X Link 2023-02-08T21:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$EQR [--] guide: SSNOI +5.5% (midpoint). 4-5% earn-in & strength in renewals (Jan +6.9%). $UDR $ESS $AVB #multifamily #REITs #dividends #cre"
X Link 2023-02-09T21:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"So I write about a lot of apartment #REITs $AVB $CPT $EQR $ESS $MAA $UDR and am bullish. But here is the case against investing multifamily in [----] per Chat GPT. Pretty decent list (took [--] seconds). Also.This will be my last annoying ChatGPT Tweet of the evening:"
X Link 2023-02-10T01:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@jay_21_ @ZinvestZ @bulldogcap22 @Lance0333 as their AFFO/sh is expected to be flattish (speaking about $AMT) now for the 3rd year in a row"
X Link 2023-02-24T22:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@jay_21_ @ZinvestZ @bulldogcap22 @Lance0333 But.might $AMT $SBAC $CCI $CLNX be willing to buy $1-200+ mn worth of these assets at a [--] cap per year I suspect they would. W/ $90 mn in annual profit from the sale of these assets (incl orig expense) $135 mn from leases on owned port $50 mn of int expense $15 mn of o/h"
X Link 2023-02-24T23:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$UNP - Soroban proposing Hunter Harrison disciple Jim Vena to replace Fritz at UNP $CSX $CNI $NSC"
X Link 2023-02-27T00:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$AVB update- March/Apr renewal offers going out at +7%. On track for [----] +4.25% SSNOI guide. $EQR $UDR $ESS #REITs #dividends $VNQ"
X Link 2023-03-03T22:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$ESS - No change to FY guide. Big tech laying off 3.5% of workforce in ESS markets. Most layoffs outside SF Bay/Seattle/LA"
X Link 2023-03-03T22:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$CPT - +7% renewals (signed) in Jan/Feb (will moderate as year progresses). 95.3% occupancy (vs. 95.8% in 4Q22). Heavy Class B mix (60%) helps to mitigate impact of new supply (which comes on at 30+% higher than Cl B rents) $MAA $NXRT $IRT"
X Link 2023-03-03T22:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$MAA at Citi conf: MF Permitting has come to a screeching halt Not super surprising given capital market conditions/const costs but should see a nice pickup in rents post 2H23-1H24 delivery deluge"
X Link 2023-03-07T19:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Ugly week for #REITs. Bought the CA heavy stuff hard today: $KRC -10.7% overall cap. Office is 13+% stripping out MF/LifeSci @ [--]. $ARE -6.5% $ESS -5.9%; 370k/door $EQR -6.1%; $372k/d I $SIVB $FRC $SBNY $PACW doesn't sink the SF Bay/CA economy non CA: $MAA -5.9%; $218k/d"
X Link 2023-03-10T23:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"What's the opposite of $SIVB $BAC $WFC $FRC large MTM losses on HTM securities Long-term low fixed rate debt $ARE #REITs"
X Link 2023-03-13T21:26Z [----] followers, 21.2K engagements
"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559280-univar-solutions-high-quality-modestly-undervalued https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559280-univar-solutions-high-quality-modestly-undervalued"
X Link 2023-03-14T12:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Layoffs in big tech $META weighing on office #REITs $BXP $KRC $HPP $DEI $VNO $SLG $CUZ $HIW $PDM $VNQ. There will almost certainly be more. This message from Zuck seems to suggest you are less likely to be forced to leave the company if you actually come to work. ZUCK: Our data shows that engineers "who either joined $META in-person and then transferred to remote or remained in-person performed better . than people who joined remotely. . I encourage all of you to find more opportunities to work . in person." https://t.co/pcNVpcs98m ZUCK: Our data shows that engineers "who either joined $META"
X Link 2023-03-14T17:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Plenty of insider buying in financials $SCHW $BY $CCB $FITB $STEL $LKFN $VLY $SF $WTFC $TFC $FFIN $UPBK $UNTY among others https://www.insider-monitor.com/insider_trading_sortby_value-3.html https://www.insider-monitor.com/insider_trading_sortby_value-3.html"
X Link 2023-03-14T23:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$MAPS mkt cap has fallen from $5 bn to $100 mn. While MJ industry $MSOS has many challenges with a net cash B/S and a valuation of just 4.5x 2023e EBITDA Weedmaps seems asymmetric here. $TCNNF $IIPR $GTBIF $CURLF $VRNOF 1/n"
X Link 2023-04-15T16:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"1/n At $6.2/share Sportsmans Warehouse $SPWH is interesting-ish here. SPWH is trading 66% below $18 price at which Bass Pro/Cabela holding co Great Am Outdoors agreed to buy them in Feb [----]. $DKS $ASO $XRT $CAB $RGR $HIBB $SWBI $VSTO"
X Link 2023-04-19T20:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"I'll say this is a feature for low leverage #REITs with access to the corp bond market. Not gonna see many new starts over next 12-24 mos (mayb longer if govt adds new bank regulations). Lower new supply benefits existing assets. $EQR $ESS $AVB $MAA $CPT $UDR $VNQ $KRC $HIW $ARE Munger negative on bank CRE loans His point on tightened CRE lending seems more important than the CRE risks (which seem slightly overstated) https://t.co/oVFZU2k3I0 Munger negative on bank CRE loans His point on tightened CRE lending seems more important than the CRE risks (which seem slightly overstated)"
X Link 2023-04-30T20:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Confused bureaucrat does homerun trot after strikeout-idiotic policy like this+onerous building codes+ridiculous increase in transfer taxes (curtails merchant builders) and you can see why LA will never bring any meaningful multifamily supply to market. $ESS $EQR $AVB $UDR Today the new update to the Hollywood Community Plan passed in Council This plan had gone 35 YEARS since its last update. Our office put immense effort into making sure the new plan benefited the needs of all our residents. Here are some impacts of these changes: Today the new update to the Hollywood Community Plan passed"
X Link 2023-05-07T23:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"I have no idea when the pain in small cap land $IWM ends but I've pared my tech $QQQ exposure $GOOGL $META $UBER $CRM (getting close to fair value) and reallocated into $BRDG and $MRC which I see doubling or tripling w/o any heroic assumptions"
X Link 2023-05-11T16:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$MRC's entire business has changed over the past [--] years. 75%+ of the company's biz came from mid/upstream in [----]. Now that number is 30%. Today largest customer group is gas utilities which has grown at a 10%+ CAGR over past decade. Not dependent on #oil /nat gas price any more"
X Link 2023-05-11T22:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"For those interested there are some good writeups on (avail w/ guest access) chronicling the history/opportunity in $MRC. http://valueinvestorsclub.com http://valueinvestorsclub.com"
X Link 2023-05-11T23:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"As for $BRDG I think it is suffering from fears of all things #CRE /#REITs / isn't $BX's $BREIT seeing persistent outflows. $BRDG is a relatively recent (2021 IPO) with very limited float (principals own like 75% of this) and very messy financials"
X Link 2023-05-11T23:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"1/n Picked up some shopping center #REITs $SITC & $WSR both of which I have trading right around a [--] cap ($200/ft) here. $BRX $FRT $REG $KIM $KRG $UBA $SPG $MAC $PECO $ROIC"
X Link 2023-05-16T16:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@KonekoResearch Any asset quality differential does not explain premium @ which $REG $KIM $FRT trade vs. $SITC $WSR $RPT. Seems there are more deals to be done in shopping center space"
X Link 2023-05-22T23:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"From 2015-2022 $RH's OP increased 252%. $WSM was +217%. Both are structurally advantaged branded homewares w/ 60%+ ecom penetration. LT winners. Of course we could see OP decline meaningfully from supernormal 2021-22 levels. Big valuation differential tho"
X Link 2023-05-22T23:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"I think $WSM normal OP settles out somewhere around $650 mn (vs. $1.5 bn in [----] and $466 mn in 2019) which works out to $7-7.50/sh in EPS. At 15-16x stock looks fairly valued here IMO but w/ retail $XRT stocks stumbling could get interesting quick"
X Link 2023-05-22T23:33Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Given apparent LT structural advantages (brand e-com sourcing/logistics) competing in fragmented marketplace $WSM seems like a biz I'd like to own if it got cheap. Biggest concern is what caused OP to stall out from 2013-2019 was basically flat"
X Link 2023-05-22T23:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@WealthOrDie There are reports that some long suffering $WBD shareholders crashed the event and got the boos going"
X Link 2023-05-23T15:10Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"2013-2019 emergence of $W which grew US sales from $1b to $7.9b. $W US rev peaked at $11.9b in [----] falling to $10.5b in [--]. Could explain $WSM challenges 13-19. Also shows $WSM holding up much better post 2020"
X Link 2023-05-23T22:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$W seems to be faltering. After generating $614 mn in adj EBITDA in [----] $W back to losing $$ at EBITDA line in [--]. Meanwhile $WSM generated record [--] OP. With $1+ bn in new B2B rev (growing faster than overall @ higher OPMs) it is possible that $WSM is a sustainably larger"
X Link 2023-05-23T22:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"and more profitable biz. $WSM e-com biz has nearly doubled since [----] (scale). If co can sustainably achieve 15% OPM target on $8+ bn in sales normalized EPS is $14+. B/S is net cash. Stock might be far too cheap here at $112"
X Link 2023-05-23T22:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@stillwell Showing up in occupancy/leasing #s for shopping centers. Despite widespread softness in retail $XRT retailers competing aggressively for available boxes. Multiple offers for boxes $BBBY is vacating @ huge spreads. I like $SITC $WSR $RPT $BRX here"
X Link 2023-05-24T17:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$BBBY boxes leasing quickly & spreads are juicy. Balance of power in shopping center space has shifted to the landlord as leased occupancy is 95%+ for most of the #REITs $SITC $BRX $KRG $KIM $REG $WSR $FRT $ROIC $RPT $PECO. Interested in shopping centers Follow @jasonmiller15 @PrivateEyeCap @stillwell Some Q1 data points: $KIM in LOI or lease neg on [--] of [--] fmr Bed Bath boxes at 24% spread $RPT leased or is in LOI on [--] of [--] at 30-40% rent spread $BRX re-tenanted several of its BBB sites at 35-40% spreads $SITC reported 25-30% mark to mkt rent spread for its sites And @PrivateEyeCap"
X Link 2023-05-24T20:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"2.leasing for small shops (sm shops have significantly higher rents than anchors). Most of the shopping center REITs have improved small shop occ from mid 80s to 90+. 3.Stronger anchors/traffic- lower cap rate. A center that is 40% leased to Staples $BBBY $PRTY (cont)"
X Link 2023-05-24T21:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"3. and has 10+% vacancy (in a market that has 10+% vacancy) is going to sell for a (much) higher cap rate than one w/ $TJX $SFM $FIVE and 5% vacancy. [--]. ALSO all the shopping center #REITs have culled their weak assets & moved up the HHI/density plot. CAN'T STRESS THIS ENUFF"
X Link 2023-05-24T21:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@jasonmiller15 Agree. Little has been built past decade. Replacement cost 2x implied P/sq ft @ which REITs are selling. Coupled w/ rising rates & dearth of development financing post $FRC $SIVB $SBNY means we are unlikely to see much get built"
X Link 2023-05-24T23:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#REIT $VNQ selloff rising rates retailer $XRT weakness create opportunity in Shopping Center #REITs which benefit from WFH/suburban shift lack of new supply and portfolio rationalization #CRE $BRX $SITC $RPT $WSR $KRG $ROIC $REG $KIM $FRT $UBP $PECO https://www.privateeyecapital.com/stuff-i-post-on-twitter/ https://www.privateeyecapital.com/stuff-i-post-on-twitter/"
X Link 2023-05-30T11:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@jasonmiller15 Cost of capital is high for $RPT $SITC $BRX $WSR-can only do one off type deals via capital recycling. $REG $KIM $FRT shares are more fully valued so they have a currency which allows them to be acquirers here-hence $REG buying $UBP w/ stock"
X Link 2023-05-30T14:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Nice piece on $BRDG from @bizalmanac $BX $MAA $VNQ $EQR $ESS $AVB $CPT $NXRT $UDR $INVH $ELME $CLPR $WD $AMH $VRE $IRT $CSR $AIRC $BRT $NEN $KKR $APO $CG $TPG $AIV $TCN https://bizalmanac.substack.com/p/in-the-eye-of-three-storms https://bizalmanac.substack.com/p/in-the-eye-of-three-storms"
X Link 2023-06-22T11:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Picked up a bit of $PENN. Tho unlikely to sustainably generate the FCF seen in 2021-22 I think company s/b able to do $2.40-2.80/share from the bricks and mortar ops alone. Anything from @barstoolsports @theScore sportsbetting is gravy. $CZR $MGM $LVS $WYNN $BALY $DKNG $FLTR"
X Link 2023-06-22T20:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"I do worry about cap alloc as I suspect they squandered most of the $2 bn spent on @theScore (1/2 was done in stock when $PENN was trading in the 80s) but mgmt seems to be focused on buybacks w/ stock here in the low 20s"
X Link 2023-06-22T20:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@theScore I also liked casinos better when they owned their RE $GLPI $VICI. Tons of op leverage post financial engineering but regionals have historically been resilient in downturns"
X Link 2023-06-22T20:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@heartof_thesea Multifam #REIT balance sheets are very low leverage across the board $CPT $EQR $AVB $ESS $UDR. Nice opp here IMO as new const likely to be pretty low given rates/const costs/bank turmoil. While lots of supply coming in sunbelt in 23-24 s/b very low in 25-26. W/ dev expertise"
X Link 2023-06-23T23:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@heartof_thesea and a strong B/S $MAA $CPT $AVB can develop for delivery into what should be a very strong market. Also well positioned to pick up new assets in lease up on the cheap as merchant builders may have to puke assets over the next 12-18 mos"
X Link 2023-06-23T23:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Jaywramseyky @Mr_Neutral_Man @heartof_thesea i think they are all pretty reasonable if a bit too conservative - i.e. they all kept LTVs 30% or lower when they were able to borrow at sub 3%. part of the reason for this is to maintain access to relatively low cost borrowing in the corporate unsecured market. access to the"
X Link 2023-06-27T13:54Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@Jaywramseyky @Mr_Neutral_Man @heartof_thesea corporate unsecured market is a nice competitive advantage now given relatively tight funding conditions. but even if these trade down to 7+% cap rates (and interest rates fall) i doubt any of these mgmt teams would execute a large levered buyback"
X Link 2023-06-24T13:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Anyone know when $CZR becomes a meaningful cash tax payer Thanks $MGM $PENN $BALY $WYNN $LVS $BYD $GLPI $VICI $FLTR $DKNG $ENT"
X Link 2023-06-25T17:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Can anyone point me to a good writeup of $GPN Thanks $FI $SQ $FIS $PYPL $ADYEY"
X Link 2023-06-26T17:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$SPHR How many acts can do a 3-4 week Vegas residency and sell out 15k+ seats per night https://www.youtube.com/watchv=YeccUuvp-qc 0-7 8-15 23+ 15-22 https://www.youtube.com/watchv=YeccUuvp-qc 0-7 8-15 23+ 15-22"
X Link 2023-06-27T18:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"In addition to advertising & selling sugar filled drinks causing the obesity epidemic looks like $KO $PEP #Diet products contain carcinogens. $KO $PEP score pretty well on #ESG score cards tho so it's all good. $ESGV $ESGU #farce #ESGtards https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/cocacolacompany/files/pages/cocacolacompany/db/761/description/December_2022_ESG_Overview.pdf Exclusive: Aspartame one of the world's most common artificial sweeteners is set to be declared a possible carcinogen next month by a leading global health body pitting it against the food industry and regulators"
X Link 2023-06-29T18:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"#ESG leader $KO $PEP make everyone fat #DEI tells everyone to be proud of being fat #synergy #progress"
X Link 2023-06-29T19:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Added some SIG PLC $SHI.LN which trades at 4x my 2026e EPS guesstimate. Likely to be a bumpy ride but riding alongside 28% owner CD&R in bldg products/bldg prod distribution has generally been a good thing $BECN & $CNR (Cornerstone -remainder acq'd by CD&R in 2022) Bought small positions in battered UK micocaps $KGH (law firm @ 4x EPS) and $MOTR (similar-ish to $KMX looks to be 5x normalized EPS). Anyone have any other UK small/microcap favorites trading at nonsensical valuations Bought small positions in battered UK micocaps $KGH (law firm @ 4x EPS) and $MOTR (similar-ish to $KMX looks to be"
X Link 2023-07-06T09:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Maybe they'll let the ticker $SPHR float around on the Sphere in a town full of degenerate gamblers for 24h or so. A ripping share price could be a great proof of concept for potential advertisers. I see 15% short interest Could get meme-y $AMC $GME"
X Link 2023-07-06T19:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Where would Twitter stock $TWTR be trading if it were still public @elonmusk $TSLA $META $QQQ"
X Link 2023-07-10T18:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I've sold most of my $SPHR"
X Link 2023-07-26T19:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Seemingly massive $BRKA $BRKB premium in $KO: $MCD $PEP $GIS $HSY $VDC"
X Link 2023-07-30T17:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Not loving my $RPT getting taken out by $KIM. Acquiring $RPT at an implied 8.2% cap rate; $KIM paying with shares trading at a 7% cap. #REITs $BRX $SITC $REG $FRT $WSR $PECO $KRG $ROIC $PECO $RPT https://t.co/jdZo20r0DW $RPT https://t.co/jdZo20r0DW"
X Link 2023-08-28T14:03Z [----] followers, 15.7K engagements
"@AnansiStocks yeah but they are paying with much more expensive/fully valued shares (smart for $KIM as deal is highly accretive) giving me ownership in something with minimal upside and not paying me a full price for what I own (I valued $RPT as being worth $15+ using a 7.2% cap rate)"
X Link 2023-08-28T14:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Looks like $RPT management takes home $35 million bucks or so for giving away the company to $KIM. https://s23.q4cdn.com/496309205/files/doc_financials/2023/ar/rpt-2023-proxy.pdf https://s23.q4cdn.com/496309205/files/doc_financials/2023/ar/rpt-2023-proxy.pdf"
X Link 2023-08-30T01:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$ESS @ BAML conf today touting the bull case for SF noting that remote work listings as % of listings has gone from 100% two years ago to single digits today $KRC $HPP $BXP $VNO $SLG $EQR $AVB $UDR $AIRC $ZM"
X Link 2023-09-12T21:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Amidst retail $XRT sm cap $IWM bloodbath Ive taken a small position in $WOOF. Results have lagged as higher margin non-consumable sales have declined following covid super-adoption cycle. Near-term in anyones guess but long term I like (cont) $CHWY $FRPT $CL"
X Link 2023-09-19T17:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"1/Humanization of pets driving spend. Later marriages/fewer births-spoiled pets. 2/Ongoing growth of higher margin services (training/vet/grooming) at $WOOF 3/valuation-trades at sub 6x EV/EBITDA vs. 10x @ which it was taken private in 2016"
X Link 2023-09-19T17:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$WOOF $2.6 bn EV today vs. $4.6 bn when acquired in [----]. EBITDA has increased - significant multiple compression despite favorable tailwinds in pet retail. $CHWY $FRPT $CL $SJM $NESN $NSRGY $CVC"
X Link 2023-09-19T21:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Anyone know offhand what % of Sysco's $SYY's Rev/OP comes from fast food Getting interesting here on #Ozempic fear but I suspect fast food $MCD $QSR $DPZ $WEN $PTLO $USFD $PZZA could be a real weak spot"
X Link 2023-10-06T19:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$KIM $RPT $FRT $REG $SITC $BRX $PECO $KRG $VNQ #REITs https://seekingalpha.com/article/4639557-kimco-evaluating-after-rpt-acquisition-announcement https://seekingalpha.com/article/4639557-kimco-evaluating-after-rpt-acquisition-announcement"
X Link 2023-10-08T17:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Looking @ Sysco. Double whammy of rates & #OZEMPIC. $SYY seems interesting at 15x forw P/E. Risks: 1/potential overearning on huge post-pandemic bounce in restaurant spend 2/dramatic OPM contraction seen from 09-14. Anyone know what happened from 09-14 Thks $USFD $PFGC $XLP"
X Link 2023-10-08T19:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$NVO $SYY $XLP $PEP $KO $MDLZ $MCD $YUM $DPZ $QSR $USFD $PFGC https://seekingalpha.com/article/4639901-sysco-stock-evaluating-risks-weight-loss-drugs-weakening-economyv=1696942760#comment-96328040 https://seekingalpha.com/article/4639901-sysco-stock-evaluating-risks-weight-loss-drugs-weakening-economyv=1696942760#comment-96328040"
X Link 2023-10-10T13:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$WOOF $CHWY $FRPT $CL $SJM $NESN $NSRGY https://seekingalpha.com/article/4638760-petco-heavily-discounted-despite-favorable-long-term-trends https://seekingalpha.com/article/4638760-petco-heavily-discounted-despite-favorable-long-term-trends"
X Link 2023-10-10T14:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@AggieCapitalist MH/RV park owners $SUI $ELS are pretty interesting here IMO - almost no new supply of parks favorable demos (age 55+) and cheapest form of housing in an increasingly expensive housing market"
X Link 2023-10-10T23:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Picked up some $SUI today. Recent price action/underperformance vs. $ELS suggests there is more bad UK news coming. That said I really like the business long term and think it is cheap here. $VNQ #REITs $UMH"
X Link 2023-10-11T17:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Picked up some $SHC on the medical device maker $ZBH $SYK $BAX $RMD $BSX $IHI bloodbath. Duopoly HSD growth sterilization biz seems a bargain at 13x [----] EPS"
X Link 2023-10-11T18:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"What is your favorite stock that has been #Ozempic'd I picked up sterilization leader Sotera $SHC and US Foods $USFD ( $SYY competitor which is a bit cheaper and may have more margin potential). $NVO"
X Link 2023-10-12T21:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"What does one do after losing weight Buy new clothes #GLP-1 driven apparel buying boom (clothes no longer fit-replace entire wardrobe) could drive heavily shorted retailer Nordstroms $JWN much higher. $NVO $LLY #Ozempic $XLP $IHI $PEP $XRT"
X Link 2023-10-13T13:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"#Ozempic $NVO $LLY food's pain $KO $PEP $LW $MDLZ $MCD $YUM $QSR $CMG $SYY $KHC $HSY $HRL could be retail $XRT and apparel's gain $JWN $KSS"
X Link 2023-10-13T16:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Great piece from @Citrini7 $NVO $LLY- highlights need to replace entire wardrobe (maybe multiple times as weight falls over a [--] year period) after losing this much weight $JWN $KSS $XRT"
X Link 2023-10-14T00:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@Citrini7 clothing. spend. supercycle. $JWN $XRT"
X Link 2023-10-15T22:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Retail_Guru Not sure what uptake/success will be with #Ozempic $NVO $LLY but losing 10-20% of body weight absolutely necessitates purchase of an entirely new wardrobe. $JWN is interesting here IMO https://seekingalpha.com/article/4641004-nordstrom-weight-loss-drugs-could-drive-eps-much-higher https://seekingalpha.com/article/4641004-nordstrom-weight-loss-drugs-could-drive-eps-much-higher"
X Link 2023-10-16T13:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Went on a long-duration (20+) #REIT unsecured bond shopping spree. Good #CRE Low LTVs (sub 40% Debt/ EBITDA 4.4-6x not much secured debt ahead of me). High 6-low 7s YTMs $ESS $EQR $AMH $VICI $REG $KIM $FRT #bonds $TLT #fixedincome #interestrates #yield #dividends #rates"
X Link 2023-10-18T16:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@jay_21_ Looks like 4-wall coverage for the $BOWL assets acquired by $VICI was just 2.0x. I think $STOR originates w/ higher 3+ coverage. I don't see why you do this deal at a [---] cap. Perhaps $EPR bid aggressively to try to diversify away from $AMC $CNK"
X Link 2023-10-20T23:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@jay_21_ They are all pretty reasonable IMO-none of them are out doing deals just to do deals. I don't worry about them doings something dumb. $ESS did best job taking adv of low rates and extending liab duration. $MAA has prob been a shrewd acquirer. $UDR prob doesn't get enough credit"
X Link 2023-10-22T16:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Strong set of results from $AVB-bumped FY SSNOI guide to 6.3% from 6%. Setting up for a decent [----]. Bodes well for $EQR $ESS $UDR $AIRC. Also interesting is AVB bought [--] deals in sunbelt-look forward to hearing more about these on tomorrows call"
X Link 2023-10-25T21:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$MAA-same trend reported last month @ BAML. 3Q23 New leases -2.2% for 3Q (vs. -1.3% for Jul/Aug). Renewals +5% (5.1% in Jul/Aug). Moveouts near all-time lows w/ housing affordability in the toilet. Cut FY23 NOI guide by [--] bps (to 6%) on expenses. MAA bot a lease up deal in PHX"
X Link 2023-10-25T21:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$SUI better than feared given how terrible the stock has been. US operating perf strong across the board. Strong [----] outlook for rent-similar to $ELS last week. Int rates biting. And the UK loan default issue which surfaced last week discussed in results"
X Link 2023-10-25T21:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$CPT-similar to $MAA seeing some weakness w/ blended leases signed in Oct going slightly negative (-3.3% new leases +4.3% renewal). Tenant turnover very low but bump in vacancy to 5.1% (+70 bps vs. 9/30). Cut FY NOI guide by [---] bps to 4.2%"
X Link 2023-10-26T21:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"On today's call $MAA talked about a flat same store rev env (flat occ renewal hikes offset new lease declines) for [----]. If true assuming 4% exp growth points to NOI decline of -2.5%. Assuming things are a bit worse 1-2% rev decline & 4% exp g and you get -4-5% NOI decline"
X Link 2023-10-26T22:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$WSR Another shopping center takeout Whitestone should be acquired by someone. Recent deals suggest fair value of $12-15 (7-8 cap). $RPT $KIM $REG $FRT $BRX $SITC $PECO $ROIC $KRG #REITs https://seekingalpha.com/news/4025157-whitestone-reit-jumps-amid-report-of-fortress-takeover-approach https://seekingalpha.com/news/4025157-whitestone-reit-jumps-amid-report-of-fortress-takeover-approach"
X Link 2023-10-26T22:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$AVB bought #multifamily deals in the mid 4s (Dallas/Charlotte) as it looks to build presence outside the coast. Surprised they couldn't do better tbh"
X Link 2023-10-26T23:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@downingstinvest seems like they had some [----] $$ they had to put to work but given rising rates/supply concerns/flagging economy you'd think they could at least do low-mid 5s. $MAA bot a lease up in PHX at a [---] (and that is depressed by concessions)"
X Link 2023-10-26T23:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$ESS steady as she goes. FY SS NOI guide unch. Renewals strong"
X Link 2023-10-26T23:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$UDR 74% coastal/26% sunbelt lowers FY SSNOI guide by [---] bps (cash basis -75bps GAAP) to +6.25%. Cites supply & incentives"
X Link 2023-10-26T23:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"From $UDR call: Class B not showing the level of resilience seen in past cycles as heavy incentives from lease-ups have narrowed effective rent gap to 10% (for 1st year-w/b interesting to see what tenant does when effective rent spikes in [--] mos). $CPT $MAA $AVB $EQR $AIRC $ESS"
X Link 2023-10-27T20:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"CBRE Prime Cl A #multifamily underwriting survey for 3Q23 $CBRE $JLL $AIRC $AVB $CPT $ESS $EQR $MAA $UDR #REITs https://www.cbre.com/insights/briefs/higher-rates-push-up-prime-multifamily-cap-rates-in-q3 https://www.cbre.com/insights/briefs/higher-rates-push-up-prime-multifamily-cap-rates-in-q3"
X Link 2023-10-28T21:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Realty Income $O to buy $SRC $SRC taken out at a 7.7% cap rate. O leverages low cost of capital to make accretive deal for SRC which had a pretty good portfolio IMO #netlease $NNN $ADC $WPC $NTST #EPRT $BNL #REITs #dividends https://www.realtyincome.com/investors/press-releases/realty-income-acquire-spirit-realty-capital-93-billion-transaction https://www.realtyincome.com/investors/press-releases/realty-income-acquire-spirit-realty-capital-93-billion-transaction"
X Link 2023-10-30T11:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@ajobst @ErnieBrownII 💯Will seem obvious in hindsight. From $CPT call"
X Link 2023-10-30T12:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$MRC reportedly exploring a sale following 4% holder Engine Capital's activist push. Engine's targeted $14-18 equates to 6.5-8x EV/EBITDA / 10-12.6x 24e EPS. I'll guess $APO buys it. https://www.mdm.com/news/top-distributor-sectors/plumbing-products-pvf-distribution/report-activist-investor-urges-mrc-global-to-explore-sale/ https://www.mdm.com/news/top-distributor-sectors/plumbing-products-pvf-distribution/report-activist-investor-urges-mrc-global-to-explore-sale/"
X Link 2023-10-30T19:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$PIPR upgrades $AVB to buy w/ $194 target (so like [---] cap @ target) and downgrades $UDR to $30 (so [--] cap). Both have mid 6s 23e SS NOI g. yes UDR has more sunbelt exposure (24% vs. 4%) but this is typical sellside #nonsense. #REITs #multifamily #REIT Headlines 10-31-2023 * Piper Sandler upgrades $AVB to Overweight from Neutral (lower price target by $3 to $194) * Piper Sandler downgrades $MAA to Neutral from Overweight (lower price target by $52 to $130) * Piper Sandler downgrades $CPT ($80) and $UDR ($30) to #REIT Headlines 10-31-2023 * Piper Sandler upgrades $AVB to Overweight from Neutral"
X Link 2023-10-31T13:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"meanwhile $AVB is buying sunbelt in the mid 4s"
X Link 2023-10-31T13:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$Z $ZG call - to paraphrase Rich Barton if #MLS or buyers agency goes away Zillow could potentially become Rightmove $RMV (which is a superior business). Lots of cards still to be turned over (this will be in courts for years) but I don't think he's necessarily wrong"
X Link 2023-11-01T21:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Officially ballz deep $Z $ZG today"
X Link 2023-11-02T22:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Insider buying the plunge in $MAA #REITs $CPT $NXRT $UDR $EQR $AVB $AIRC $BX $ESS https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000912595/49369a86-3da6-431e-93a3-a504612bbec9.pdf https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000912595/49369a86-3da6-431e-93a3-a504612bbec9.pdf"
X Link 2023-11-02T22:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"In the extreme case where Sitzer/Burnett leads to an end to the use of buyers agents (similar to the UK or Australia) Rightmove's $RMV valuation (EV per inhabitant -similar # transactions per person in UK/US) suggests a $100/share value for $Z $ZG"
X Link 2023-11-04T21:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"My article walking discussing #sitzerburnett potential impact on $Z $ZG $RMV $REA $NWS in extreme case where buyers agents are no longer prevalent #housing #NAR #MLS #commissions https://seekingalpha.com/article/4647823-zillow-potential-industry-disruption-big-positive https://seekingalpha.com/article/4647823-zillow-potential-industry-disruption-big-positive"
X Link 2023-11-05T15:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"My article walking discussing potential impact of #sitzerburnett on $Z $ZG $RMV $REA $NWS in extreme case where buyers agents are no longer prevalent #housing #NAR #MLS #commissions https://seekingalpha.com/article/4647823-zillow-potential-industry-disruption-big-positive https://seekingalpha.com/article/4647823-zillow-potential-industry-disruption-big-positive"
X Link 2023-11-05T15:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@GrandTokamak Not sure I agree for $OPEN which benefits from high commissions i.e. rather than pay 5-6% to a broker sell to us commission free (at a lower price). If commissions go down to 3-4% this likely hurts their competitiveness"
X Link 2023-11-05T18:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$UBER cc gross bookings +20% YoY w/ EBITDA more than doubling (9.5% incremental EBITDA margin on bookings). Look at all that Free Cash Flow Well on track to deliver $5 bn in EBITDA & $2/sh in FCF in 2024"
X Link 2023-11-07T12:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@AlwaysBeBullish IMO there is a moat for most hq shopping center #REITs insofar as replacement cost is 50-100% higher than where the REITs are trading. rents need to move much higher for any meaningful new supply. that's why you are seeing M&A $KIM $RPT $REG $UBA instead of new dev. $WSR"
X Link 2023-11-15T21:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#shoppingcenters remain strong $SITC continuing to complete asset sales $KRG $BRX $KIM $WSR $REG $FRT $PECO $ROIC $REITs $VNQ $UE $IVT $BFS https://shoppingcenterbusiness.com/zrp-acquires-wando-crossing-in-south-carolina-for-46-8-million/ Yesterday's $SITC news is a big deal. 1/Sold 15% of total assets at a 6.5% cap vs the 9.3% at which Site trades. De-levers to 4x. 2/Spinning off convenience assets $CURB which have low capex (sub 10% of NOI) and are better than shopping centers $BRX $KRG $KIM $REG $FRT #REITs https://t.co/4ewzP6no9Y"
X Link 2023-11-18T13:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@TheWeezGuy all the apt #REITs are very cheap here imo- $UDR stands out amongst coastal. love $CPT & $MAA here. amongst shopping centers $WSR and $SITC are cheapest (8.3-8.4% cap vs. 8% for $BRX/ $KRG & sub [--] for $REG $FRT). $SITC my fav shopping center"
X Link 2023-11-18T20:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I don't love the timeshare (sorry vacation clubs) biz but $VAC seems too cheap here. Prob won't hit their [----] $1.1-$1.2 bn EBITDA target (implies like $17-18/sh in FCF using historical conv rates) but should do like $9-11 most of which comes back to s/h. $HGV $TNL"
X Link 2023-11-28T16:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Marginal cash cost of #natgas production in the US Anyone $BP $EQT $AR $RRC $SWN $XOM $UNG $UNG"
X Link 2023-12-04T17:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$CAVA What's that smell An imminent Secondary They are gonna get ya all bulled up at the $MS conf first. Mediocre restaurant for a mere 44x 24e EBITDA. What's not to love Great #ESG. Cost of borrow is like 123% so i shat out a few calls. $CMG $MCD $WING $QSR $YUM $WEN $SHAK"
X Link 2023-12-04T19:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$SPHR since when is [--] nights a residency Surprised more hasn't been announced for [----]. Would've thought Sphere w/b perfect for the Stones given their age/draw. Seems Sphere continues to burn cash too as evidenced by convert issuance"
X Link 2023-12-05T13:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$SPHR Lack of progress on [----] bookings+ continued cash burn (assumed based on convert issuance)+Dolan = not getting back in despite pullback in price"
X Link 2023-12-05T13:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@RealAssetsValue @rhunterh @thepupil11 @Mr_Neutral_Man @HawkinsEntrekin @stocksonnets -Most likely pick IMO is that $WSR gets acquired. -Much less likely but sensible IMO is that GIC (and a partner) acquire a large cap MF REIT say $AIRC $UDR $CPT or $MAA"
X Link 2023-12-08T19:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Re the #Ohtani contract if $40 mn pa is deferred and paid out $10 mn pa (extending from years 11-51) then I get an equivalent value using a 5% disc rate (what value w/b w/o deferrals) is $405 mn over [--] years which seems pretty reasonable. #MLB #Dodgers #FreeAgency #baseball"
X Link 2023-12-10T14:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"it's not that #Ohtani doesn't understand basic finance or that he doesn't care about $$$. It's because he discounts at 1%. Just pay me whenever. #MLB #Baseball #Dodgers #FreeAgency $TLT #interestrates"
X Link 2023-12-12T00:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Lightened up an insy tinsy bit here. $Z $ZG"
X Link 2023-12-13T19:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"1. Is it true that 51% of $PYPL's OP comes from x-border transactions [--]. Is this a more defensible biz $GPN $ADYEY $SQ $FIS $AAPL $FI #Stripe $AAPL https://business.columbia.edu/sites/default/files-efs/imce-uploads/Graham%20Doddsville%20Fall%202023%20Issue%20FINAL.pdf https://business.columbia.edu/sites/default/files-efs/imce-uploads/Graham%20Doddsville%20Fall%202023%20Issue%20FINAL.pdf"
X Link 2023-12-14T00:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Took more $ZG $Z off the table. I am no longer ballz deep. But more than just the tip"
X Link 2023-12-14T19:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@rhunterh i don't think so. 1/MF REIT cost of capital isn't great 2/gateway MF #REITs $EQR $AVB are looking to diversify away from CA. $ESS prob won't want all the other stuff. 3/sunbelt MF REITs aren't itching to get into CA"
X Link 2023-12-20T18:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#Dodgers spending orgy continues with #Yamamoto Who is to blame #Charter/ #Spectrum $CHTR which pays LAD $335 mn pa for broadcast rights #MLB #MLBFreeAgency #baseball #LAD"
X Link 2023-12-22T14:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Unsecured debt capital is available to the large cap apartment #REITs on reasonable terms (Camden issues [--] yrs @ 4.95% YTM): $CPT $MAA $UDR $EQR $ESS $AVB $AIRC $NXRT $IRT $VNQ #multifamily https://investors.camdenliving.com/investors/news-events-presentations/news/news-details/2024/Camden-Property-Trust-Prices-400-Million-4.900-Senior-Unsecured-Notes-Due-2034/default.aspx https://investors.camdenliving.com/investors/news-events-presentations/news/news-details/2024/Camden-Property-Trust-Prices-400-Million-4.900-Senior-Unsecured-Notes-Due-2034/default.aspx"
X Link 2024-01-03T22:20Z [----] followers, 12.7K engagements
"Unsecured debt capital is available to the large cap apartment #REITs on reasonable terms (Mid America issues [--] yrs @ 5.1% YTM): $MAA $CPT $UDR $EQR $ESS $AVB $AIRC $NXRT $IRT $VNQ #multifamily $WD $CBRE $JLL $CWK https://ir.maac.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2024/MAA-Announces-Pricing-of-Senior-Unsecured-Notes-Offering/default.aspx Unsecured debt capital is available to the large cap apartment #REITs on reasonable terms (Camden issues [--] yrs @ 4.95% YTM): https://t.co/eBhWQcmtoD $CPT $MAA $UDR $EQR $ESS $AVB $AIRC $NXRT $IRT $VNQ #multifamily"
X Link 2024-01-04T23:21Z [----] followers, 15.6K engagements
"$PX-added a good chunk here. I've got it at 10.7x 2024e FCF. Huge discount to large cap alts $BX $APO $KKR $TPG $CG. P10 is only mgmt fees (no carry) so won't get the bump to DE from anticipated boost to #IPO market but seems far to cheap for a very stable and growing FCF stream"
X Link 2024-01-05T20:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"All native Chicagoans are required to update Portillo's model annually $PTLO annually. Here's my update: Could be an opp as I expect Berkshire Part(not $BRKA) to sell down Not cheap enuff [--] me but cheap vs. peers $MCD $SHAK $CMG $DRI $WING $DPZ $CAVA https://seekingalpha.com/article/4662605-portillos-getting-more-interesting-but-still-not-a-buy As a native Chicagoan I felt compelled to run the ruler on Portillo's $PTLO. @ 24x 2023e EBITDA I'll pass. I think they'll struggle to do better than 10% annual EBITDA growth given lower AUVs outside core Chicago market. #IPO lockup approaching $SHAK"
X Link 2024-01-13T16:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"https://www.youtube.com/watchv=HB0YI0rUUuc https://www.youtube.com/watchv=HB0YI0rUUuc"
X Link 2024-01-14T03:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@bizalmanac Idk anything about $CPNG but $FTCH seemed to have strong positioning w/ lux brands but was horribly mis-managed by Neves. He squandered $$ in a way which was almost unfathomable. $500m purch price could end up being a grand slam"
X Link 2024-01-15T16:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@bizalmanac but it c/b that $FTCH is structurally doomed as 1/lux brands have the juice &can go direct/dictate terms 2/idk why peep buy this crap but mayb the dopamine hit for buyers is having a retail employee in a fancy store kiss their a$$ when they make purch which doesn't happen online"
X Link 2024-01-15T17:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$EQR guiding to +1.8% NOI growth for FY24. Ever so-slight new lease acceleration (still neg) in Jan24 vs. 4Q23. Renewals remain strong at nearly 5%. East stronger than West (SF/Sea dragging while SoCal is strong). $AVB $AIRC $ESS #REITs $VNQ"
X Link 2024-01-30T21:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
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