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# ![@CapexAndChill Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::1892686015178944513.png) @CapexAndChill CapexAndChill

CapexAndChill posts on X about $meli, $se, $nu, brazil the most. They currently have XXXXX followers and XXX posts still getting attention that total XXXXXX engagements in the last XX hours.

### Engagements: XXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::1892686015178944513/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1892686015178944513/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- X Week XXXXXXX -XX%
- X Month XXXXXXX +845%
- X Months XXXXXXX +1,281%

### Mentions: XX [#](/creator/twitter::1892686015178944513/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1892686015178944513/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- X Week XXX -XX%
- X Month XXX +121%
- X Months XXX +215%

### Followers: XXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::1892686015178944513/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1892686015178944513/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- X Week XXXXX +25%
- X Month XXXXX +660%
- X Months XXXXX +1,457%

### CreatorRank: XXXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::1892686015178944513/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1892686015178944513/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[stocks](/list/stocks)  #2787 [finance](/list/finance)  XXXXX% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  XXXXX% [countries](/list/countries)  XXXXX% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  XXXX% [social networks](/list/social-networks)  XXXX% [currencies](/list/currencies)  XXXX%

**Social topic influence**
[$meli](/topic/$meli) #4, [$se](/topic/$se) #2, [$nu](/topic/$nu) #2, [brazil](/topic/brazil) #574, [sea](/topic/sea) #2696, [$ses](/topic/$ses) #7, [$uber](/topic/$uber) #49, [$amzn](/topic/$amzn) #67, [$bn](/topic/$bn) #17, [ai](/topic/ai) XXXX%

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@topieero](/creator/undefined) [@latticeinvestor](/creator/undefined) [@benmartin661251](/creator/undefined) [@garpandchill](/creator/undefined) [@realvasileios](/creator/undefined) [@bramvgenechten](/creator/undefined) [@tinytitanscap](/creator/undefined) [@michaelchutney](/creator/undefined) [@bradmur32528398](/creator/undefined) [@sashinvesting](/creator/undefined) [@matkinvest](/creator/undefined) [@smsutherland](/creator/undefined) [@smartfinapp](/creator/undefined) [@ruchernchong](/creator/undefined) [@gabgrowth](/creator/undefined) [@lucas2052543](/creator/undefined) [@mplycap](/creator/undefined) [@qualityinvest5](/creator/undefined) [@manuinvests](/creator/undefined) [@wormelow1](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[MercadoLibre Inc (MELI)](/topic/$meli) [Sea Limited (SE)](/topic/$se) [NuCypher (NU)](/topic/$nu) [Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER)](/topic/$uber) [Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)](/topic/$amzn) [Brookfield Corporation (BN)](/topic/$bn) [Nu Holdings Ltd. (NU)](/topic/nu-holdings) [Costco Hot Dog (COST)](/topic/$cost) [Adobe, Inc. (ADBE)](/topic/$adbe) [Goldman Sachs (GS)](/topic/goldman-sachs) [Coupang, Inc. (CPNG)](/topic/$cpng) [Brookfield Asset Management Inc (BAM)](/topic/$bam) [Interlay (INTR)](/topic/$intr) [DoorDash, Inc. (DASH)](/topic/doordash) [Dash (DASH)](/topic/$dash) [Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST)](/topic/costco) [Simplify Macro Strategy ETF (FIG)](/topic/$fig) [Block, Inc. (XYZ)](/topic/$xyz)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours

"The most important chart that is developing in LATAM ecom: The $MELI Divergence 📉📈 For years the bear case on MercadoLibre was that it couldn't compete with $SE's Shopee on cheap goods without destroying margins. Q3 2025 proved that wrong with a single critical divergence. The Signal: In Brazil Items Sold grew XX% YoY significantly outpacing FX-Neutral GMV growth of 34%. My Analysis: The Inversion: In mature marketplaces GMV typically outpaces Items Sold as ASPs (Average Selling Prices) rise. MELIs inversion is deliberate. It signals a massive mix-shift toward the low-ASP (R$50) inventory"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1994477507911745607)  2025-11-28T18:44Z 2268 followers, 32.1K engagements


"nibbled some more on $BN $SE & $MELI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1988982302748315787)  2025-11-13T14:48Z 2168 followers, 3231 engagements


"$BN disputes "nefarious" labeling of its structure claiming vertical integration is the edge By feeding Oaktree assets into its insurance arm $BN hit a X% net yield on $4B (Q3 '25) Mgmt says critics are penalizing them for the strategy used by Apollo/KKR (pioneered by $BRK)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1991027664422047981)  2025-11-19T06:16Z 2168 followers, XXX engagements


"The $BN thesis in a nutshell: Arbitraging the spread. In Q3 '25 $BWS grew assets to $139B and originated $5B in sales. The critical metric They deployed $4B at a X% net yield. With cost of funds at 4-5% they are capturing a massive spread on the float. 💰✅"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1991030220426559683)  2025-11-19T06:26Z 2168 followers, XXX engagements


"@TinyTitansCap Looking solid. Will have to do more dd on them. When it comes to LatAm for me I am not that interested in expanding my knowledge past everything related to $MELI 🤣 but its important to understand the entire landscape better"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1993773961348567265)  2025-11-26T20:08Z 2178 followers, XXX engagements


"@mply_cap I gotta be honest this was not even part of my $BN thesis but absolutely incredible"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1995592703145549903)  2025-12-01T20:35Z 2168 followers, XXX engagements


"I don't claim to be an expert on valuation but if there is one business I feel good about valuing it has to be $MELI Let's take a walk through determining its valuation conservatively. The Setup: $MELI is not an e-commerce stock. Valuing it on a blended P/E multiple will make it look more expensive on the surface. To see the real value we must dismantle the company. Here is my Sum-of-the-Parts valuation analysis the market is (likely) ignoring. The Peer Review Problem: Wall St. Consensus often values $MELI on short-term EPS (50x 2025E). The Flaw: This penalizes MELI for Customer Acquisition"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1994841551751528634)  2025-11-29T18:51Z 2264 followers, 18.2K engagements


"The $MELI 'Grofit' Paradox: Why Wall Street is getting the Q3 2025 margin compression VERY wrong (IMO 🤣). MELI is down on efficiency concerns. EBIT margins compressed to 9.8%. Net income margin is 5.7%. Bears say the model is breaking. The data says they are building a monopoly. Here is my deep-dive on why MercadoLibre is trading profits today for total hegemony tomorrow (and a lot longer after that). 👇 The Context: The Grofit Pivot Management has famously balanced Growth + Profitability ("Grofit"). For the last X years they were delivereing both. In Q3 2025 they made a violent pivot:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1995640312329294102)  2025-12-01T23:45Z 2267 followers, 13.5K engagements


"The Race to the Bottom Fear for $SE looks dead on arrival. Critics argued their dominance was bought with subsidies and once the cash dried up the moat would evaporate. They were dead wrong. By Q3 2025 $SE hasn't just survived the price wars. They have ended them by building structural advantages that capital alone cannot replicate. Let me breakdown the new Structural Supremacy thesis for $SE THE FINANCIAL PIVOT 📊 The days of profitless growth are far gone. Q3 '25 Revenue: $6.0B (+38.3% YoY) Adj. EBITDA: $874.3M (+67.7% YoY) The divergence here is critical: Margins are expanding faster than"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1995685740240379962)  2025-12-02T02:45Z 2264 followers, 5746 engagements


"The Delivery Wars in the US One narrative entering 2025 was that $UBER and $DASH were destined for a margin-killing price war. Let's take a look at what the Q3 2025 data is showing and that narrative is dead. We arent seeing a race to the bottom. We are seeing a flight to quality. Here is my data-backed breakdown of why the landscape has shifted and who the winners are. 👇 The Financial Decoupling The era of profitless growth is gone. Uber just posted $1.1B in Operating Income and $2.3B in Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 '25 (+33% YoY). Crucially margins are EXPANDING not compressing. Adjusted EBITDA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1995997529968968133)  2025-12-02T23:24Z 2262 followers, 1795 engagements


"The Nomad Partnerships Protocol: $MELI Deep Dive Is $MELI the next $COST or the next $AMZN I just spent a significant amount of time combing through MercadoLibre's financials through the lens of Nick Sleep's Scale Economies Shared framework. The verdict This is arguably the purest application of the Nomad philosophy in the world right now. (I am trying to be objective here ok 🤣) Here is my data-backed thesis. 👇 🧠 The Philosophy: Scale Economies Shared Nick Sleep's core tenet for Costco was simple: Most companies use efficiency to raise margins. Great companies use efficiency to lower"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1996009117324870129)  2025-12-03T00:10Z 2262 followers, 26.9K engagements


"Here is my simplified investment thesis checklist for $MELI: ✅ Logistics Moat: fulfillment capacity up XX% YoY & unit shipping costs down X% QoQ. The physical barrier to entry continues to widen. ✅ Management Quality: Galperin & team eat short term margin hits for breakfast. The latest result is XX% increase in items sold in their most competitive market. Playing the infinite game ✅ Digital Penetration: LatAm ecom still just 12-15% of retail (vs XX% global avg)    As long as the moat continues digging deeper with its growing and massive runway Im sleeping well at night with my biggest"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1996282924875047289)  2025-12-03T18:18Z 2268 followers, 16.1K engagements


"The Alpha Many Missed in $MELI's Earnings Everyone read the Q3 print. But one month prior CFO Martin de los Santos shared exceptional insight at the Goldman Sachs Communacopia that explained the mechanics behind the numbers. While the earnings showed the what (margin compression for growth) the fireside chat reveals the how (structural cost advantages). Here is the dissected alpha the market glossed over. 👇 The Zero CAC Credit Card Flywheel The Print: Credit portfolio up XX% YoY. The Hidden Alpha: In Brazil MELI issued 1.3M cards in Q2 alone. The kicker Most came with near-zero Customer"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1996772461799465285)  2025-12-05T02:43Z 2268 followers, 59.2K engagements


"The thesis: @canva owns the low end $FIG owns the high end and AI destroys the middle for $ADBE The data tells a violently different story. Here is the objective fact-checked breakdown. 👇 First the Canva Threat. The bear case: Canva is eating Adobes lunch in the non-pro market. The Reality: Adobes Business Professionals segment (Acrobat + Express) is actually one of its FASTEST growing cohort. Revenue: $1.65B Growth: +15% YoY (vs XX% for the whole co) What everyone is missing about @AdobeExpress: Its not fighting Canva on features but on Governance. Q3 saw a 4x YoY increase in org adoption"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1997119068797599884)  2025-12-06T01:41Z 2267 followers, 2226 engagements


"Are you $SE-ing this 🤣 Lookin good. Adding a lil"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1998058931424280720)  2025-12-08T15:55Z 2267 followers, 8979 engagements


"Most AI strategies are just chatbots. Nubanks is looking like a structural moat. While incumbents rely on static logistic regression $NU deployed nuFormer. This is a Transformer model that treats transaction history like a language. The result They spot Invisible Prime borrowers that legacy algos reject. They leave the actual bad risks for competitors. 🤣 That isn't just better math. It is weaponizing their structural advantage"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1998239098956304583)  2025-12-09T03:51Z 2268 followers, 5155 engagements


"Brazil's Fintech Battle: High Rates Big Wins 📈 Brazil's high interest rates used to crush fintech funding costs favoring big banks. BUT 2025 has been a major turning point $NU has hit a massive $38.8B in deposits driving its cost of funding to XX% of the interbank rate. They're now funding lending with cheap customer money and not expensive wholesale debt. This shift flips the script. Massive scale is officially the new incumbent advantage. 🔥"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1998278041320001705)  2025-12-09T06:26Z 2267 followers, 1469 engagements


"Totally agree the UX is slick and globally its a great product. But specifically in Mexico Main Bank status requires winning the ground war on cash access (OXXO partnership) and yield. $NU locked that down years ago. Revolut is fighting a massive uphill battle on infrastructure vs. an incumbent with $X cost-to-serve. They will likely succeed in a niche market but mass adoption will be difficult"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1998424162231025925)  2025-12-09T16:07Z 2267 followers, XXX engagements


"$NU looking like it will have a lot of growth levers soon Brazil: Cash cow 🐄 Mexico: Aggressive scaling 📈 (tracking faster than Brazil) Colombia: Future option ✨(tracking similarly to Brazil) They're using Brazil's profits to fund growth. Plus they're de-risking the whole thing with safe secured loans"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1998654383626629429)  2025-12-10T07:21Z 2268 followers, 1437 engagements


"You could only choose one. What would it be"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1998655733827604668)  2025-12-10T07:27Z 2268 followers, 4459 engagements


"Rolled some more $ASML gains into $MELI $SE $UBER and even a $NU starter"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1998813762296623297)  2025-12-10T17:55Z 2268 followers, 4738 engagements


"The thesis for $MELI $UBER $SE etc is more about what management is doing to to maintain and increase dominance. Is management focused on long-term value Are they willing to accept short-term pain for long-term gain Everybody is focused on the shiny new competitors. The thesis is that management is already executing the necessary steps to mitigate these issues and make the business stronger. If the management is not doing this then its a thesis breaker"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1998827688241369246)  2025-12-10T18:50Z 2268 followers, 15.3K engagements


"$ADBE Q4 Earnings: The Boring Cash Fortress 🛡📊 Adobe delivered a classic beat & raise but the real story isn't the headline numbers (as in most cases). It's the battle between massive cash generation and the AI tax. To be fair the earnings were pretty predictable if you been following $ADBE. TLDR: Adobe isn't a hyper-growth AI rocket ship. It's a defensive fortress printing $10B+ in cash a year. (what a surprise 🤣) Heres the breakdown: X. The Real Signal: RPO Revenue While revenue grew XX% YoY to $6.19B the hidden alpha is in Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO). RPO hit $22.52B up 13%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1998866983136182764)  2025-12-10T21:26Z 2268 followers, 2363 engagements


"Stop the logistics fear-mongering on $MELI. 🛑 The narrative that "FBA-style logistics don't work for the long tail" in Brazil is a thesis that started in 2021 and aged like milk recently. Here is the data-driven (not rambling about marginally related historical situations) truth on the Brazil Logistics War and why I remain giga-Long $MELI (LatAm) and Long $SE (SEA) for completely different reasons. X. The "Asset Light" Fallacy The claims $SE wins by avoiding warehouse complexity. False. Reality: Shopee is aggressively copying MELIs fulfillment model in Brazil. In 2024/25 Shopee Brazil ramped"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1994113565033414815)  2025-11-27T18:38Z 2267 followers, 48.8K engagements


"Let's take a walk through memory lane of how the ecom landscape in Brazil progressed. How $MELI weaponized the Shopee threat: For X years $SE's Shopee attacked Latin America with an asymmetric playbook: gamification + massive subsidies. Instead of a race to the bottom MELI responded with physics. Let's walkthrough the strategic autopsy of the war. The Threat (20192023) Shopee entered Brazil targeting the long tail. These are cheap unbranded goods. Their goal wasn't immediate profit. It was frequency. By 2025 Shopees app ranked #1 in usage in Brazil effectively capturing the daily habit of"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1994242923781611876)  2025-11-28T03:12Z 2268 followers, 35.7K engagements


"$SE has strong Founder Alignment Let's take a look at Forrest Lis control structure: X. The Emperor Share Structure (Class B) Alignment at Sea Limited isn't about a board granting options. It's about absolute control. Fact: Forrest Li holds Class B super-voting shares. He controls XX% of the voting power. Reality: He cannot be fired by activists. He is playing for a multi-decade legacy (the "trillion-dollar" goal) not a 3-year vesting cliff. X. Proven Skin in the Game (The Zero-Salary Check) Talk is cheap. Action is verifiable. Fact: During the tech winter crash (2022/2023) Li and top"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1995260077427626356)  2025-11-30T22:34Z 2267 followers, 5521 engagements


"Is $MELI the ultimate Compounding Machine I analyzed MercadoLibre's business through the lens of Chuck Akre's legendary Three-Legged Stool investment philosophy. The findings We are looking at the commercial infrastructure of an entire continent. A deep dive 👇 🪑 The Akre Framework looks for X specific things: X. Extraordinary Business (High Returns on Capital) X. Talented Management (Owner-Operators) X. Reinvestment Runway (The ability to compound) Does $MELI fit the mold in late 2025 Let's check the data. 🦵 LEG 1: Extraordinary Business It's not just a website but a utility. The MOAT is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1997043087273558399)  2025-12-05T20:39Z 2268 followers, 16.8K engagements


"$SE's Logistics-Ad Arbitrage Machine 🤖 The headline beat is noise. The real story is a ruthless internal subsidy loop and the looming credit test. Weaponizing Logistics Shopee is intentionally effectively lowering shipping prices to bleed competitors. Gross Orders: +28.4% YoY Value-Added Services (Logistics) Revenue: -XXX% YoY They are eating shipping costs (via SPX) to drive volume (hmm a similar playbook to their LatAm counterpart 🧐). Competitors without owned logistics cannot mathematically match this pricing structure. The Funding Source: Ad-Tech Tax How can they afford shipping"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1997049447914594686)  2025-12-05T21:04Z 2267 followers, 6897 engagements


"The Death of the $UBER Bear Thesis For years the bear case for $UBER was simple: Robotaxis are coming. They will own the hardware cut out the middleman and Uber goes to zero. That thesis isn't just wrong. Its backward. Here is the data-backed reality of the Hybrid Network.👇 The Capital Fortress 🏰 Bears assumed Uber would be too cash-poor to survive the transition. Reality: Uber is a cash machine. Q3 '25 EBITDA: $2.3B (Record High) Free Cash Flow: $2.2B Cash on Hand: $9.1B They aren't bleeding but they are arming themselves to buy the transition. The Utilization Paradox Why does Waymo need"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1997080219010978040)  2025-12-05T23:06Z 2268 followers, 7486 engagements


"Here are the X critical alpha signals for $ASML: X The Packaging Pivot (XT:260) While the market obsesses over nanometers ASML quietly shipped the TWINSCAN XT:260 in Q3. The Fact: Its an i-line scanner with 4x the productivity of legacy tools. The Alpha: This is a direct play on Advanced Packaging (CoWoS). ASML is no longer just the bottleneck for making the chip. They are now selling the shovel for packaging it. The single biggest constraint for $NVDA & $AMD right now. X Memory is the New Logic The consensus was that High-NA EUV was a Logic-only ( $TSM / $INTC ) tool for years. The Fact:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1997113476217512406)  2025-12-06T01:18Z 2268 followers, 1139 engagements


"Next $MELI Deep Dive: The Scuttlebutt Stress Test from Philip Fisher The headline number is hard to ignore: Q3 2025 marked the 27th consecutive quarter of revenue growth above XX% (hitting +39% YoY). BUT the real story is in the margins. Here is the reality of $MELI's business from the lens of Philip Fisher's Scuttlebutt Approach: X. The Productive Pain of Logistics Bears point to margin compression. The Scuttlebutt reveals it's a defensive weapon. Fact: MELI lowered the free shipping threshold in Brazil again. Result: Items Sold growth accelerated to XX% in Q3 (vs XX% prev qtr). Insight:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1997431738386043355)  2025-12-06T22:23Z 2268 followers, 27.5K engagements


"$NU: The Brazil Discount may be an Arbitrage Opportunity 📉 I just modeled Nu Holdings' intrinsic value. The market is pricing it closer to a legacy bank than the tech compounder it is. Here is my valuation breakdown.👇 📊 The Engine (Q3 '25 Verified Actuals) First the raw power under the hood is undeniable: 🔹 ROE: XX% (Record high vs. 15-20% for legacy banks) 🔹 Efficiency Ratio: XXXX% (Industry-leading cost structure) 🔹 Net Income: $783M (+39% YoY FX-Neutral) 🔹 Total Customers: 127M (106M Active) This isn't a growth at all costs cash burner. It's a profit machine. 🧮 The Model: Inputs I"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1997482203278721451)  2025-12-07T01:44Z 2268 followers, 22.1K engagements


"Let's compare the two LatAm Giants: $MELI vs. $NU Two hyper-growth engines (+39%). But for the first time their paths have wildly diverged. One is burning margins to build an invincible moat (I like). The other has become a cash-printing machine (I like). Here is the breakdown. 👇 📊 The Headline Numbers $MELI (MercadoLibre): Rev: $7.4B (+39.5% YoY) Op Margin: XXX% (DOWN from 10.5%) 📉 Strategy: Aggressive Reinvestment (Logistics + Credit) $NU (Nu Holdings): Rev: $4.17B (+39% FXN) Net Income: $783M (Record) 💰 ROE: XX% (Annualized) Strategy: Profit Compounding 📦 $MELI: The Shared Economies"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1997523482729443491)  2025-12-07T04:28Z 2268 followers, 7280 engagements


"The $NU Moat is Impressive Most people look at Nubank and see a fast-growing bank. They are missing the architectural reality. Nu isn't just disrupting fee structures but also executing a classic Nick Sleep playbook (Scale Economies Shared) that makes competition almost mathematically impossible. Here is the data on the X pillars of their moat: X. The Nick Sleep Test (Scale Economies) The core thesis of Nomad Investment Partnership was Scale Economies Shared: passing cost savings to customers to drive volume creating a flywheel incumbents can't match. The Data: Nus Cost to Serve is stuck at"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1997872943758545063)  2025-12-08T03:36Z 2268 followers, 11.8K engagements


"$NU isnt just a bank anymore 🟣 Its a self-funding volatility machine. Most analysts are obsessed with USER GROWTH slowing down in Brazil. I think this is an oversight of what is actually brewing. Heres the paradox most analysts miss: The Saturation Myth: Everyone has a Nubank card already. Kinda true. XX% of adults do in Brazil. But market share wallet share. They own the users (100M+) but only X% of the profit pool. The next decade isnt about finding new people but about migrating the 100M+ from just cheap payments to high-yield secured loans. The Reinvestment Engine: This is the Compounder"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1998075414112047297)  2025-12-08T17:01Z 2268 followers, 6157 engagements


"What if Everything Goes Wrong for $SE Most investors obsess over the Bull Case ($200+). But disciplined value investors obsess over the downside. I modeled the Ultra-Conservative Disaster Scenario for Sea Limited. No Margin Expansion. Growth crashes to 15%. Multiples compress. Here is the surprise: You still don't lose money. 👇 📉 The Disaster Inputs Let's strip out all optimism. We assume $SE becomes a boring low-margin utility. Entry: $XXX (Today) Normalized Earnings: $3.68/share (Blended FCF/Net Income) Growth: XX% (Conservatively matching analyst revenue estimates ignoring profit"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1998109834030325803)  2025-12-08T19:18Z 2268 followers, 13.1K engagements


"The Hidden Floor for $MELI 👇 📉Assuming a disaster scenario X years out: Growth slows to XX% (vs XX% today) Margins compress to X% (vs XX% today) Exit Multiple crushed to 15x Adj Free Cash Flow The Headline Shock: 😱Running those bearish numbers through a DCF model spits out an Intrinsic Value of $1450 per share. Most investors stop here see downside from $2000 and panic. The Reality Check (The Math): That $1450 is the Present Value (discounted back to today). This would imply a 2030 (ultra) bear price target of $2.5k at a XXXX% discount rate. The Insight: Even if MercadoLibre executes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1998163218246565984)  2025-12-08T22:50Z 2267 followers, 6990 engagements


"The Alpha Many Missed in $MELI's Latest Motley Fool Interview: The Lazy Oligopoly Arbitrage. Most investors model MELI against $AMZN or Shopee's $SE. MELI isn't just winning because they ship fast. They are winning because LatAm banks are broken. Here is the structural market failure they are exploiting (many investors often miss). The Setup: Extreme Concentration In the US thousands of banks fight for your deposit. In Mexico the top X banks hold XX% of assets. In Brazil the top X hold 72%. When you own the market you don't need to innovate. You just collect rents. SVP Leandro Cuccioli calls"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1998474930560942272)  2025-12-09T19:28Z 2268 followers, 4720 engagements


"Wall Street hates the margin compression in $NU Mexico. Long-term investors should love it. The cash burn is actually a calculated capital allocation play to lock in a massive funding advantage before 2026. Here is my math behind the $6B+ hidden moat in Nu Mexico (subscribe for FREE and I plan to put out a deep dive on $NU soon):"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1998711792709857354)  2025-12-10T11:10Z 2268 followers, 4034 engagements


"This is how I feel about this $UBER drop"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1998815959096893625)  2025-12-10T18:03Z 2268 followers, 5292 engagements


"Imo anything below the median line is likely a solid entry. Particularly anything on the lower decile of the median to min line is likely a great entry. Keep in mind margins are recently depressed because of the free shipping threshold taking an immediate hit and credit port explosive growth"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1998880870506103203)  2025-12-10T22:21Z 2268 followers, XXX engagements


"More super investors catching on to $SE & $NU And $BN remains a fave as well"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1989445061277614312)  2025-11-14T21:27Z 2202 followers, 4278 engagements


"@wormelow1 Very close to it They are more of an issuer and acquirer. For example the $meli credit card is on $v rails So yes they are also a mix of $adyen & $xyz 🤣 So fascinating right"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1993892405230354491)  2025-11-27T03:59Z 2187 followers, XXX engagements


"Took a further look at the Taiwan ecom landscape. Thanks to @BenMartin661251 for bringing it up. I didn't look too much into $CPNG in Taiwan as I've thought for a sometime that $SE's Shopee dominates Taiwan. I still think this to be the case but $CPNG appears to be carving out its own niche funded by its South Korean dominance. The Battle for Taiwan: Shopee vs. Coupang The Formosa Strait has become a hot proxy war in Asian tech. Two giants two different philosophies. Shopee (Asset-Light/Traffic) vs. Coupang (Asset-Heavy/Logistics). Here is my initial breakdown of the war for a $50B+ market."  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1994496416677343618)  2025-11-28T19:59Z 2197 followers, 3255 engagements


"The real 2025 story of $SE is its structural decoupling of monetization from volume. They aren't just selling more. They are squeezing significantly more margin out of every transaction through three widening moats: Shopee is now an Ad-Tech Beast: Ad revenue (+70%) is growing 2.5x faster than GMV (+28%). This isn't just traffic. It's AI-driven conversion (+10% YoY). They have successfully shifted the revenue mix toward high-margin ad spend. The "All-Can-Apply" Alpha: SeaMoney added 5M borrowers in XX days by switching from conservative whitelisting to real-time algorithmic underwriting. Risky"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1994572671359570064)  2025-11-29T01:02Z 2187 followers, 3541 engagements


"Although $MELI works with $V with its credit cards Meli has a massive internal payment network that operates without Visa. Pretty remarkable company"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1994574847184380170)  2025-11-29T01:11Z 2201 followers, 3141 engagements


"Its true there will be some pain entering a recession but I know for example $MELI has been extremely cautious with its credit portfolio. They openly report quality numbers and manage it with a lot of caution. The risk is operational and macroeconomic: managing a high-growth high-yield credit book in unstable economies. Credible rating agencies have affirmed the company's financial stability but the rapid expansion requires continuous vigilant oversight of credit quality and careful monitoring of macro-shocks in the region. When there was a downturn in Mexico $MELI reacted pretty quick and"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1994589313380565197)  2025-11-29T02:08Z 2179 followers, XXX engagements


"@BradMur32528398 I am bullish on $SE. I only discovered them because of $MELI. I think they are executing a similar playbook in SEA. They are also finding profitable niches in LatAm and even made $MELI dance the last few years to protect their LatAm dominance. Two extremely solid compounders IMO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1995204745854845192)  2025-11-30T18:54Z 2197 followers, XXX engagements


"Some think Shopee has decisively won in SEA. The data does not entirely agree. Despite the stiff competition I still think $SE is executing really well but let's take a look at what they are fighting against. X The Coup in Vietnam: TikTok Shop hit XX% market share in Q3 nearly catching Shopee (56%). The content moat is a fierce battleground. X Video is the New Mall: Video commerce now drives XX% of ALL regional GMV. X Scale Above All: J&T Express delivered X BILLION parcels in just XX days (+79% YoY) crushing independent 3PLs. The era of just listing and waiting in SEA is over. If you aren't"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1995213028757803432)  2025-11-30T19:27Z 2230 followers, 13.8K engagements


"@SashInvesting @LatticeInvestor Im heavily weighted toward $MELI but I have started building a position in $SE. They have excellent management too"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1995250432944533894)  2025-11-30T21:55Z 2215 followers, XXX engagements


"@qualityequities Currently just own $MELI although I do like $NU"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1995333974650958263)  2025-12-01T03:27Z 2185 followers, XXX engagements


"@mply_cap The $BIP part 😂 My main thesis is built around $BWS & $BAM and of course the vertical integration for data centers"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1995593516001661064)  2025-12-01T20:39Z 2184 followers, XXX engagements


"@MatiasManuel71 I never see analysts talk about this huge advantage in their thesis. This gives $MELI a big advantage over most of its competitors"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1995893806026064304)  2025-12-02T16:32Z 2185 followers, XXX engagements


"The 2025 LatAm Holiday E-Com Wars: $AMZN vs. $MELI vs. $SE Some of the data is in for Black Friday (Brazil) and El Buen Fin (Mexico). The narrative isn't just growth but a structural war between Logistics Credit and Regulation. Here is the breakdown of the landscape. The Macro Shift The 2025 holiday season defied high interest rates. Brazil: A volume revolution. Revenue +11.2% (R$ 4.76B) on Black Friday but avg ticket DROPPED 12.8%. Why The Pix Effect. Cash is king credit is expensive. Mexico: An Omnichannel expansion. 7/10 shoppers mixed physical/digital. The Challenger: $SE (Shopee) The"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1996268680921956791)  2025-12-03T17:21Z 2224 followers, 3293 engagements


"I talked about this a bit the last week. I have several reasons why this is not the case. X. $SE is focused on profitable growth. They already reached profitability in Brazil. $PDD burned an unreal amount of cash to move upmarket this implies thats $SE may be willing to just dominate low-end market and is attempting to make a move upmarket just to potentially squeeze out some extra profitability. X. $BABA originally chose to not prioritize the low-end market. $MELI has been preparing for slashing the free shipping threshold for years. They didnt want to blow up their logistics by not having"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1996467323943682291)  2025-12-04T06:31Z 2200 followers, XXX engagements


"$ADBE Q3 FY25 Risk Verification: The AI Disruption thesis is collapsing under the weight of data. Doing a forensic analysis of the latest quarter confirms Adobe is successfully pivoting from a Tool vendor to an AI Operating System. Here is the data breakdown on AI revenue moats and risks. X The Real AI Revenue Forget the vague $5B AI-Influenced metric. The signal is AI-First ARR surpassing $250M (Firefly/Acrobat AI standalone SKUs). Insight: This proves distinct willingness to pay for AI utility separate from the core creative license. Monetization is real not theoretical. X The Defensive"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1996599477168144545)  2025-12-04T15:16Z 2185 followers, 2874 engagements


"While $MELI just secured Investment Grade terms its primary challengers ( $SE & $NU) are still rated Speculative. Here are my thoughts of why this $750M issuance is a strategic moat.👇 The Weapon ($750M @ 4.90%) $MELI successfully issued $750M in 2033 notes at 4.90%. Demand: 3.6x oversubscribed (Investors offered $2.7B). Rating: BBB- (Investment Grade). Context: This is their first issuance since achieving IG status. Why does this matter Because access to cheap USD liquidity is the ultimate divider in emerging markets. Vs. Nubank (The Credit Rating Gap) Nu is a beast but global credit markets"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1997053805800685963)  2025-12-05T21:21Z 2199 followers, 7628 engagements


"The $MELI ad moat is structurally deeper than $AMZN's. X. Commerce Data: Tracks all purchase intent/history. X. Payment Data: Sees all on/off-platform spending. X. Credit Data: Crucially knows a user's affordability (credit risk/loan capacity). This 360-degree view lets $MELI target ads not just on what a user wants but what they can realistically afford driving superior conversion & ROI. This financial insight is an irreplicable advantage in Latin America's underbanked market. Thats one fortified ecosystem"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1997207318186856810)  2025-12-06T07:31Z 2223 followers, 1893 engagements


"Im pretty much in the same position. I think $MELI is the sleep at night pick for long term holders. The upside and moat is infinite longterm. $NU on the hand is operating so well and will continue to cross sell and make more money from its current user base as it continues to scale. They are both very compelling"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1997690134620205164)  2025-12-07T15:30Z 2235 followers, XXX engagements


"Revoluts approach is kind of the opposite of $NU. Likely attempting to acquire high value customers. I think in that market an another competitor is welcome and will likely not steal that much growth from the fast growing incumbents. The traditional banks are likely to get hurt the most. I will have to dive more into it. Thanks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1998397085054304568)  2025-12-09T14:19Z 2220 followers, XX engagements


"It will be interesting to see but either way it is a different angle. The TAM for them is much smaller and the overlap between $NU's marketshare is likely very thin. In general they will both benefit from the expanding TAM and secular tailwinds. $NU will eventually move up market when it makes sense"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1998419283831824733)  2025-12-09T15:47Z 2234 followers, XX engagements


"The next company on the list for shareholder alignment: $NU X. The Owner-Operator Iron Grip (Class B Shares) Alignment at $NU isn't about a board granting options but absolute founder control. Fact: Founder/CEO David Vlez holds Class B shares with XX votes per share (vs. X vote for Class A). Reality: He cannot be fired by activists. He controls the company's destiny. This allows him to make unpopular short-term decisions (like burning cash in Mexico) to secure long-term dominance. X. The Anti-Profit Profitability Management explicitly rejects short-term earnings optimization in favor of"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1996976543256490177)  2025-12-05T16:14Z 2253 followers, 8494 engagements


"Personally own neither at the moment. I would say $MA still offers a slightly more compelling opportunity but both $MA & $MSCI will likely outperform from here"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1997024441210180016)  2025-12-05T19:25Z 2235 followers, 1214 engagements


"@MattWat16001736 In general $SE is in a good position in brazil and will continue to be profitable. $MELI by far is still the safest in any kind of macro downturn given its utility status and advantageous debt"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1997078597283303634)  2025-12-05T23:00Z 2253 followers, XXX engagements


"Its hard to judge $ASML at its current valuation. I have personally been trimming into what I deem better and less risk-adverse opportunities at the moment despite still holding it as a core position. The $XXX USD range was incredible. $1.1K+ USD is getting optimistic. The moat (EUV monopoly) is definitely consensus. What isn't entirely a consensus is the TAM expansion. The market still models them as a front-end logic tool. They are missing: Packaging: The XT:260 proves they are entering the HBM/CoWoS supply chain (a completely new revenue stream). Memory Intensity: High-NA isn't just for"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1997164415951495676)  2025-12-06T04:41Z 2235 followers, XXX engagements


"@MartinGamps Did you just never look into $MELI You should if you like $SE"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1997328019136847950)  2025-12-06T15:31Z 2245 followers, XXX engagements


"@Matkinvest Spot on regarding the cohorts That maturity curve is the hidden leverage in the model. As those older cohorts age they aren't just sticking around but are compounding revenue while the cost to serve stays flat. That operating leverage $NU possesses is huge Thank you"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1997440685276827730)  2025-12-06T22:59Z 2240 followers, XXX engagements


"@smsutherland 🤣 I do love myself more $meli & $se"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1997464673579401694)  2025-12-07T00:34Z 2248 followers, XXX engagements


"Made some posts on $SE recently but admittedly have no in-depth content on here yet. Check out the latest earnings transcript and look through their press release. I think its showing a lot of good developments in SEA. @Brian_Stoffel_ and @GabGrowth also have some great content on $SE"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1998069311252963733)  2025-12-08T16:37Z 2244 followers, 1599 engagements


"Deep dive for $NU will be available on the substack within a week or so. In the meantime check out my recent analysis of $MELI's margin compression near zero CAC and their slow-shipping layer 😎"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1998075416951534047)  2025-12-08T17:01Z 2240 followers, XXX engagements


"@fintegrate I am with you $SE has entered the accumulation zone 😏"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1998196556730962349)  2025-12-09T01:02Z 2242 followers, XXX engagements


"Bro did two full swaps between $BN & $BAM the last X quarters 🧐"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1989339468307034338)  2025-11-14T14:27Z 2258 followers, 20.3K engagements


"Great points on $SE and I agree with them I feel there is a potential duopoly forming although Shopee is clearly the dominant one of the two. I do think Vietnam is an interesting dynamic to watch. In Vietnam TTS is doing really well with it's video-first demand that Shopee can't fully monopolize compared to other regions. Shopee's logistics pivot is aggressively moving volume in-house to SPX to protect those margins. Another interesting note is that it appears that J&Ts massive surge in Q3 tracks strongly with TikTok's rise specifically. J&T is becoming the TikTok Rail while Shopee builds its"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1995299478635434053)  2025-12-01T01:10Z 2250 followers, XXX engagements


"📈 Shopee's Video Commerce Growth is Phenomenal $SE's Shopee is aggressively dominating the Video Commerce space 💥 In Q3 2025 orders originating from YouTube content in Southeast Asia surged by over XX% QoQ 🤯 This substantial growth driven by their Live Streaming and Video Commerce capabilities underscores Shopee's success in capturing the crucial younger demographic who discover and purchase products via video. It's a strategic move that effectively neutralizes the unique selling point of video-first competitors. The SEA e-commerce giant is succeeding in video-commerce"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1996833539422040068)  2025-12-05T06:46Z 2254 followers, 2362 engagements


"$NU: The Efficiency Monopoly While the governance is ironclad (as covered) the real story is a unit economic structure that makes legacy banking obsolete. Here is my operational thesis for Nu Holdings: X. The Structural Cost Moat ($0.90 vs. The World) Most fintechs are just shiny front-ends with the same back-end costs. Nu is different. Fact: Nus Cost to Serve Per Active Customer is stuck at $0.90/month. Legacy incumbents in Brazil are at $5.00$15.00. Signal: This isn't an efficiency edge but a structural arbitrage. Nu can service a low-income client profitably where incumbents lose money."  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1997415382911730029)  2025-12-06T21:18Z 2258 followers, 11.7K engagements


"The fintech battle in is an interesting battle royale ⚔ to watch 2025 has transitioned from growth at all costs to ruthless efficiency and ecosystem lock-in Most interesting players: $NU $MELI $INTR & $SE Who is winning is a nuanced answer"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1993737738554667243)  2025-11-26T17:44Z 2261 followers, 1015 engagements


"$INTR is the middle class super app with ok numbers: XX% ROE & XX% efficiency ratio but they are getting squeezed between $NU & $MELI Monee is the dark horse. They are riding up the low end market & offer high yield to low income demographics w/ SPayLater. An invisible threat"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1993737748398690642)  2025-11-26T17:44Z 2261 followers, XXX engagements


"The $XXX Billion Bet Everyone Hates Why the market is completely misreading Amazon's expensive quarter. My thesis: $AMZN isn't burning cash. It's buying sovereignty. The Capex Problem is Actually a Moat🏗 Everyone is panicking about Free Cash Flow dropping XX% to $14.8B. Amazon spent $XXXXX BILLION on CapEx in the last XX months. Thats up XX% YoY. For context: They spent more on infrastructure this year than the entire market cap of most S&P XXX companies. Why They aren't just buying NVIDIA chips. They are building the physical backbone of the AI internet. The Silicon Revolution (That No One"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1996749055829971009)  2025-12-05T01:10Z 2267 followers, 3023 engagements


"$CPNG Initial Thoughts: The Missing Piece in My Global E-Com Portfolio 📦 I investigated whether $CPNG deserves a spot alongside $AMZN $MELI and $SE in my portfolio. The verdict Its not just Korean Amazon. Its a distinct Northeast Asian Logistics Specialist offering operational alpha not just growth. 📊 The Data: Revenue: $9.3B (+20% FX-neutral) Growth is accelerating not stalling. Gross Margin: XXXX% Proof that end-to-end logistics (100% owned network) scales efficiently. Core Profit: Product Commerce generated $705M EBITDA (8.8% margin). The core business is a cash machine funding the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1997124158757483003)  2025-12-06T02:01Z 2264 followers, 3275 engagements


"If $SE can stay in a dominant position in SEA it should be able to expand margins by scaling its logistics scaling its ad biz scaling Monee in general. Once the credit port stop growing so fast provisioning could slow down quality will likely improve for credit and they can focus on increasing spend per customer rather than just customer acquisition"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1998393691447152911)  2025-12-09T14:05Z 2261 followers, XXX engagements


"In my opinion the "Nu Killer" narrative is dead on arrival for the Revolut launch 🦄 $NU has 13M+ users & the OXXO network (cash is still king). 🛍 $MELI is how people actually eat shop and pay bills. ✈ Revolut is. a great travel card for the top 1%. Nu & Meli are building financial infrastructure. Revolut is catering to a niche market. This isn't a war it's market segmentation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1998409958459686926)  2025-12-09T15:10Z 2268 followers, 3202 engagements


"@buccocapital I $se what you are saying and accumulating gradually 😏"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1998434431716176126)  2025-12-09T16:47Z 2268 followers, 1855 engagements


"My bear case already assumes NO margin expansion and a 'boring utility' 18x multiple. Comparing developing SEA to mature China e-commerce (5% growth) is apples to oranges. Assuming X% growth with those other assumptions would mean $SE got fully disrupted and essentially declining with market tailwinds bring it up. The question remains: Why is zero profit leverage the bear case for a company still scaling in a growth market My model intentionally strips out the biggest bull catalyst (margin expansion) to show the safety net"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1998444526042542209)  2025-12-09T17:27Z 2261 followers, XXX engagements


"@inxpensveinvest 🤣 yeah i mean this is a great longterm deal. I think $MELI is down on macro fears"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1998805638030459197)  2025-12-10T17:22Z 2268 followers, XXX engagements


"@Vternar Its possible. My time horizon is probably longer than most. Im happy with the low risk nearly double I got from $ASML. I still hold a large amount of $ASML"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1998818668344652003)  2025-12-10T18:14Z 2267 followers, XXX engagements


"@benbstwits @QualityInvest5 $UBER is actually one of $GOOG's biggest strategic and commercial maps partners. I have many reasons to believe that $GOOG wants waymo to succeed alongside $UBER. Building out a successful logistics network/ecosystem is no easy feat even for big tech"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1998824896546103760)  2025-12-10T18:39Z 2267 followers, XX engagements


"@Alexand92792198 ahh a reasonable person"  
[X Link](https://x.com/CapexAndChill/status/1998894028310589528)  2025-12-10T23:14Z 2263 followers, XX engagements