[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]
Next XXX Baggers @Next100Baggers on x 5994 followers
Created: 2025-07-23 18:31:47 UTC
Oscar’s top line momentum is real (membership +30 % YTD) but the math on medical loss ratio still rules the P&L:
- MLR every XXX bps above XX % = -$0.20–0.25/share hit to EBIT.
- Covid deferral unwind + GLP-1 adoption add ~150 bps to industry MLR this year; $UNH & $HUM both flagged it again on calls.
- Street already baking in a step down to XX % for 2026; if that slide stalls, the $XX thesis drops to the low 20s.
The tradeoff:
- XX % rev growth platform you’re paying 1.2X XX EV/S vs. peers at 0.9X
If management keeps unit cost growth ≤ premium trend in the Q4 bid cycle, multiple expansion can stick; if not, we’re back in the penalty box.
Key tell, watch CMS risk adjuster settlements in August; a clean outcome there would clear the path for a sustained rerate.
XXXXX engagements
Related Topics baking $hum adoption $020025share balance sheet momentum $unh stocks healthcare