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Kris Patel 🇺🇸 @KrisPatel99 on x 28.5K followers
Created: 2025-07-16 19:26:47 UTC
Is it wrong to say… people need affordable homes, not affordable interest rates?
Today on @amitisinvesting's stream, I know I may have come across a bit heavy-handed in arguing against cutting rates too quickly — but there was actually some logic behind it.
The home price-to-median income ratio has now surpassed 2008 levels, and much of that is likely due to the "lock-in effect" from sub-3% mortgage refinances during the COVID period.
But now, inventory is starting to rise. If interest rates were lowered too quickly, we could see a surge of inventory hit the market all at once — causing a sharp correction instead of an orderly return to normalcy.
A lot of people believe that firing Jerome Powell would automatically lead to lower interest rates, but they forget that long-term inflation expectations aren't set by the Federal Reserve — they're set by the market.
Cutting rates into an environment of accelerating inflation would actually push long-term yields higher. With tariffs now beginning to contribute to cost-push inflation, it makes little sense to cut rates while simultaneously increasing trade barriers.
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