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@secretlyaninja Avatar @secretlyaninja secretlyaninja

secretlyaninja posts on X about $ncdl, discount, $ncdls, cuts the most. They currently have XXXXX followers and XXX posts still getting attention that total XXX engagements in the last XX hours.

Engagements: XXX #

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Mentions: X #

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Followers: XXXXX #

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Social category influence finance

Social topic influence $ncdl #1, discount #1088, $ncdls #1, cuts, fed, losses #657, $arccs #1, debt, decent, imo

Top assets mentioned FS KKR Capital Corp. Common Stock (FSK) Blue Owl Capital Corporation (OBDC)

Top Social Posts #

Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours

"Bought $NCDL @ $XXXXX (26% discount to NAV). BDCs have been taken out to the wood shed after high profile corp defaults (First Brands Tricolor Saks etc). Seems like a classic case of throwing 👶 out with 🛁💧. Decent r/r setup w/ 12-24 month horizon imo. Thread 🧵 (1/n)"
X Link @secretlyaninja 2025-10-13T02:46Z 1094 followers, 5862 engagements

"And $NCDL's superior credit perf is not due to extend-n-pretend typical of some BDCs. The way to tell is high PIK income. When BDCs do E2P troubled loan is usually converted to PIK. But $NCDL's PIK as % of NII is low @ XX% (ARCC XX% FSK XX% OBDC 14%)"
X Link @secretlyaninja 2025-10-13T03:13Z 1094 followers, XXX engagements

"That would take $NCDL's annual NII from $XXXX now to $XXXX. That's still XXXX% yield which is not bad in a world where ST rates are scraping 3%. And that assumes XXX bps Fed cut (which is where Fed Fund futures are). If inflation is persistent maybe less cuts & higher yield"
X Link @secretlyaninja 2025-10-13T03:22Z 1094 followers, XXX engagements

"Even if I assume $NCDL has all loans marked at par I'm buying at XX. In a recession maybe we get XX% cumulative payment defaults (ignoring tech. defaults & m2m losses). @ XX% default recovery (conservative given XX% 1st lien) hit to NAV is 5%. My cushion is 13%"
X Link @secretlyaninja 2025-10-13T03:03Z 1094 followers, XXX engagements

"Worth noting that $NCDL's current default rate is only XXX% (cost basis). Compare that to high profile BDCs: $ARCC's default rate is XXX% $FSK XXX% $OBDC 1.6%. $NCDL's credit performance has been far better than nearly all BDCs"
X Link @secretlyaninja 2025-10-13T03:09Z 1094 followers, XXX engagements

"So where should $NCDL trade Current price doesn't make sense vs comps. Its port is XX% 1st lien and NAV discount is 26%. If investors are concerned about credit losses 1st lien port should trade better. Yet $ARCC's 1st lien is only XX% yet NAV discount is paltry 5%"
X Link @secretlyaninja 2025-10-13T03:31Z 1094 followers, XXX engagements

"Next interest rate risk. $NCDL like all BDCs own floating rate debt so is exposed to Fed rate cuts. Its NII is $1.84/sh annualized so earnings yield is XXXX% at my cost. Last 10Q disclosed that -XXX bps rate cut would lower NII by $XXX MM"
X Link @secretlyaninja 2025-10-13T03:17Z 1094 followers, XXX engagements

"$NCDL is a BDC that IPO'ed in Jan '24 @ $XXXXX. Since then it has traded at a modest discount to NAV except post-Liberation Day & now. Now modest discount (5%) makes sense since its portfolio is overwhelmingly 1st lien mid-market corp debt"
X Link @secretlyaninja 2025-10-13T02:49Z 1094 followers, XXX engagements

"But the horror of FB & Tricolor (+neg sentiment around priv credit) has led to indiscriminate selling of BDCs. For the record $NCDL has no exposure to FB or Tricolor (as of 2Q). Also those X cases are tinged with fraud so no read-thru to broad market"
X Link @secretlyaninja 2025-10-13T02:53Z 1094 followers, XXX engagements