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@nickgerli1 Avatar @nickgerli1 Nick Gerli

The US housing market is experiencing a correction, with over XX states showing a monthly contraction in home values. Inventory is surging, with over X million resale listings on the market, and home prices are dropping in over half of the US. The market is shifting in favor of buyers, with sellers cutting prices and months of supply increasing.

Engagements: XXXXXXX #

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Mentions: XX #

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Followers: XXXXXXX #

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Social category influence finance social networks technology brands

Social topic influence housing market #28, listings, longterm, metro #407, bubble #126, affordable, homes, insurance #210, mortgage rate #7, rates #264

Top Social Posts #

Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours

"3) Since then values have dropped by over 20%. And now Austin's housing market is actually looking much more affordable. With the typical home value only XXX% overvalued according to Reventure App's calculations"
@nickgerli1 Avatar @nickgerli1 on X 2025-07-21 18:43:32 UTC 137.8K followers, 4715 engagements

"South of Atlanta is getting cheap. Values are dropping inventory is way up and investors are now selling below market. You can get a 2005-built looking livable for $XXX PSF. I've seen some big price cuts in this market with some investors slashing $100k below the previous sale price. Builders are also getting in on the action too"
@nickgerli1 Avatar @nickgerli1 on X 2025-07-16 20:02:30 UTC 137.8K followers, 55.8K engagements

"The improvement in affordability in Austin TX's housing market has been miraculous. X years ago homes were XX% overvalued. Today homes are only X% overvalued. A severe home price correction to go along with rising income levels has now made Austin's housing market relatively affordable again. Don't be surprised if values drop another 7-8% in the next XX months before bottoming in mid-2026"
@nickgerli1 Avatar @nickgerli1 on X 2025-06-27 19:50:19 UTC 137.8K followers, 333.8K engagements

"2) As a result of increased price cuts home values are now starting to drop in many states across the U.S. In June data from Zillow showed that XX states hit negative YoY value contraction. While on a monthly basis XX states saw negative value growth"
@nickgerli1 Avatar @nickgerli1 on X 2025-07-19 14:04:28 UTC 137.8K followers, 3131 engagements

"7) At the end of this thread I'll show you how to access these graphs for yourself so you can dig into the data for your area. But overall - think of price cut % as an indication of seller desperation especially when viewed across an entire metro area. If in unison more sellers are cutting prices it's because they sense it would be better to sell now than to wait. An implicit indication that home values will drop"
@nickgerli1 Avatar @nickgerli1 on X 2025-07-19 14:11:37 UTC 137.8K followers, 2868 engagements

"The reason no one is buying houses right now is because U.S. housing market affordability is literally at the worst level in the past XX years. Today an American making median income needs to spend XXXX% to afford the monthly mortgage tax and insurance payment. The long-term norm is 29%. And during the depths of the last housing crash it became as cheap as 22%. For a rebound in the housing market to take place this Mortgage Payment/Income Ratio needs to get cheaper probably closer to 30%. To get there home values need to drop XX% and mortgage rates need to drop 1.5%"
@nickgerli1 Avatar @nickgerli1 on X 2025-07-02 18:15:01 UTC 137.8K followers, 462.4K engagements

"Colorado is now the most oversupplied housing market in the U.S. Inventory at 31000 in June 2025. XX% above the long-term average. Such high inventory is now causing home values to drop across much of Colorado's housing market delivering much-needed relief to homebuyers"
@nickgerli1 Avatar @nickgerli1 on X 2025-07-15 13:59:25 UTC 137.8K followers, 49.5K engagements

"2) The average appreciation in Austin's housing market over the last XX years is 4.0%/year. During the pandemic it reached XX% in 2021"
@nickgerli1 Avatar @nickgerli1 on X 2025-07-21 18:41:35 UTC 137.8K followers, 4298 engagements

"US Housing Market price cut rate at highest level for June going back X years"
@nickgerli1 Avatar @nickgerli1 on X 2025-07-19 13:57:58 UTC 137.8K followers, 49.3K engagements

"Home prices in the U.S. are XXXX% overvalued in 2025. This is a higher level of overvaluation than what we saw at the heights of the 2006 bubble. After that last bubble prices became undervalued and the period from 2008-2019 was a great time to buy a house. However today the market has become too expensive with home prices outpacing wage growth. The result is an overvalued and unaffordable market. This is the main reason why homebuyer demand is so low in 2025. Fix the overvaluation fix the homebuyer demand problem"
@nickgerli1 Avatar @nickgerli1 on X 2025-07-22 16:14:12 UTC 137.8K followers, 87.7K engagements

"1) Here's the math on the data above: Austin's typical home value has fallen from $568k to 452k in the last three years which constitutes a roughly XX% correction. In the same span Austin's fair home value based on local median incomes has risen from $374k to $424k"
@nickgerli1 Avatar @nickgerli1 on X 2025-06-27 19:52:05 UTC 137.7K followers, 12.9K engagements

"5) Another stat that shows the weakness in Colorado's housing market today are price cuts. Sellers across the state reduced prices on XXXX% of listings in June 2025. That's the highest share of reductions since 2017"
@nickgerli1 Avatar @nickgerli1 on X 2025-07-15 14:51:52 UTC 137.7K followers, 7350 engagements

"5) But if you were to pair a mortgage rate of XXX% with home prices dropping by XX% on a national basis then true affordability is unlocked. The monthly mortgage payment would drop to $2188/month a XX% savings. At that level buying a house looks way more enticing"
@nickgerli1 Avatar @nickgerli1 on X 2025-07-22 16:27:32 UTC 137.8K followers, 3502 engagements

"1) This data is sourced from and shows that XXXX% of sellers reduced prices on total listings in June 2025. The long-term average price cut rate for June is only 21.1%. And during the pandemic it fell all the way to 10.8%. The higher price cut activity is yet another sign that the U.S. Housing Market is in recession"
@nickgerli1 Avatar @nickgerli1 on X 2025-07-19 13:58:59 UTC 137.8K followers, 3697 engagements

"The fundamental problem in the housing market today. American households need to earn $112000 in order to afford a house. However the Median Household income is only $84000. Meaning that a huge portion of the U.S. population is unable to even qualify for a mortgage. Note that from 2010 to 2020 the opposite was true. Actual median incomes were higher than the income needed to buy a house indicating a period of housing affordability. To get back to that either prices and rates need to drop or incomes need to go up or some combination of the three"
@nickgerli1 Avatar @nickgerli1 on X 2025-07-09 19:06:58 UTC 137.8K followers, 131.2K engagements

"California housing inventory just jumped to 76000 listings. That's the 2nd highest level of supply for June in the last nine years"
@nickgerli1 Avatar @nickgerli1 on X 2025-07-10 17:15:14 UTC 137.7K followers, 50K engagements

"13 states + DC are now experiencing negative home value growth YoY according to Zillow's Value Index. Florida is leading the way at -4.3%. Even California is now getting in on the action dropping -XXX% YoY. These declines are starting small. Affordability remains at its worst level in XX years. However the market is starting to correct"
@nickgerli1 Avatar @nickgerli1 on X 2025-07-17 15:31:24 UTC 137.8K followers, 77.2K engagements

"Charlotte's housing market is getting in on the action. Inventory there just hit 9400 listings the highest level for June on record (going back to 2017). Supply is now up XXX% from the pandemic low. This housing downturn is no longer just a Florida/Texas thing. It's hitting almost every major city in the South"
@nickgerli1 Avatar @nickgerli1 on X 2025-07-14 14:49:19 UTC 137.8K followers, 49.7K engagements

"8) One thing to note is that a price cut on its own can be small and immaterial (e.g. if a seller cuts the price $1000). So this metric does not measure the depth of declines due to price cuts. However it's extremely useful in determining seller sentiment in a market especially when compared to the historic norms"
@nickgerli1 Avatar @nickgerli1 on X 2025-07-19 14:14:32 UTC 137.8K followers, 8076 engagements

"Orlando FL's housing market is correcting fast. Supply is at a 10-year record up XXX% over the last two years. Sellers are struggling to sell their homes and prices are dropping. Orlando's market is heavily exposed to macroeconomic forces like travel and tourism. And there's currently a -X% YoY decline in traffic at Orlando International Airport. That decline is now showing up in local economic and housing market weakness. Home values are already down -XXX% in the last XX months. And they are still about 15-20% overvalued after that drop. So there's likely more downside coming. Access the"
@nickgerli1 Avatar @nickgerli1 on X 2025-07-12 14:18:40 UTC 137.8K followers, 55.1K engagements

"4) At some point later in 2025 Austin's housing market will flip into "undervalued" territory and it will again be a good time to buy in the metro. It's likely values drop by another 7-8% over the next year. Before eventually bottoming out in the middle of 2026"
@nickgerli1 Avatar @nickgerli1 on X 2025-07-21 18:46:35 UTC 137.8K followers, 4287 engagements

"4) One state with a very high price-cut rate right now is Georgia. XXXX% of sellers reduced the price in Georgia in June 2025. The long-term average is 21.7%. Meaning there are almost XX% more price cuts on a relative basis. That's suggesting sellers in Georgia sense the market will decline more into the future"
@nickgerli1 Avatar @nickgerli1 on X 2025-07-19 14:09:09 UTC 137.8K followers, 2032 engagements

"Do you think Jerome Powell should be fired"
@nickgerli1 Avatar @nickgerli1 on X 2025-07-16 16:03:30 UTC 137.7K followers, 29.9K engagements

"4) On the chart below you can see the impact of various changes in mortgage rates and prices on home payments. Today's payment is $2776/month to buy inclusive of taxes and insurance. If rates drop by XXX basis points the payment goes to $2574/month. Not enough to get anyone truly excited"
@nickgerli1 Avatar @nickgerli1 on X 2025-07-22 16:25:29 UTC 137.8K followers, 3738 engagements

"Austin TX home values have now contracted X years in a row. -XXXX% in 2023 -XXX% in 2024 -XXX% in 2025 Note that this is the biggest housing correction Austin has experienced in the last 25+ years. Even bigger than what occurred in the GFC"
@nickgerli1 Avatar @nickgerli1 on X 2025-07-21 18:38:07 UTC 137.8K followers, 94.2K engagements

"5) In the end you can't perfectly time the housing market. However if you use the right data you'll be able to position yourself for success. Reventure saw the downturn in Austin coming before anyone else and it was due to our data"
@nickgerli1 Avatar @nickgerli1 on X 2025-07-21 18:47:41 UTC 137.8K followers, 7568 engagements

"1) Home values in Austin didn't correct much in the GFC (by only about 5%) because the market wasn't in a bubble back then. However the pandemic surge in prices destabilized Austin's housing market for the first time in decades. And we are now seeing large price declines as a result"
@nickgerli1 Avatar @nickgerli1 on X 2025-07-21 18:39:45 UTC 137.8K followers, 4528 engagements

"@BJACK3 True. But not all markets experienced the wild swings of Austin. And this market didn't even crash during the GFC downturn"
@nickgerli1 Avatar @nickgerli1 on X 2025-07-21 19:09:51 UTC 137.8K followers, XXX engagements

"Housing inventory is now bouncing back to pre-pandemic levels. XXXX million listings in June 2025. XXXX million listings in June 2019. Soon it will no longer be appropriate to say the words "housing shortage" or "low inventory". Good news for buyers"
@nickgerli1 Avatar @nickgerli1 on X 2025-07-08 20:43:51 UTC 137.7K followers, 47.3K engagements

"9) To access the price cut rate for your market use the Reventure Create-a-Graph feature which allows you to instantialy create housing market graphs for your city and ZIP code. This data available down to the ZIP code will help you analyze the market and allows allow you to easily share on social media. Hit 'Copy Graph' to easily copy and paste into X Instagram Facebook or your e-mail newsletters. First XX graph generations are free"
@nickgerli1 Avatar @nickgerli1 on X 2025-07-19 14:17:33 UTC 137.8K followers, 7329 engagements

"3) According to data available on Reventure App the biggest monthly decline in values came in Florida where they dropped -XXXX% on the month. If that pace were to continue it would be -X% over a year"
@nickgerli1 Avatar @nickgerli1 on X 2025-07-19 14:06:08 UTC 137.8K followers, 2785 engagements

"Home builder inventory over the last XX years. Only other times it was this high: 2022 2008 1991. All are either recessionary scenarios or near recessions. This is ultimately good news for homebuyers. It means cheaper prices are around the corner. But potentially bad news for builders and those who bought near the peak of the bubble. There could also be an economic spillover in terms of construction job losses and downturns in regional economies most exposed to home building"
@nickgerli1 Avatar @nickgerli1 on X 2025-06-27 14:51:30 UTC 137.7K followers, 40.4K engagements

"6) Access graphs on the Austing TX housing market by using the new Reventure Create-a-Graph feature. This feature allows you to instantly pull ZIP code county and metro level housing data for your area. Displaying the data on clean graphs and allowing you to share on social media (Hit "Copy Graph"). Access the create a graph feature at First XX graph downloads are free"
@nickgerli1 Avatar @nickgerli1 on X 2025-07-21 18:49:58 UTC 137.8K followers, 7180 engagements

"The number one challenge in the housing market right now for investors is spreads. That is - the complete lack of a spread between cap rates and the 10-year US Treasury. Currently the cap rate for single-family is 4.9%. Which is only XXX% above the 10-year US treasury rate. That means it pays a similar amount to park cash with the government as it does to buy a house and rent it out. As a result investor demand in the housing market has dropped precipitously"
@nickgerli1 Avatar @nickgerli1 on X 2025-07-14 20:37:45 UTC 137.8K followers, 43K engagements

"@StephenKnudson Going from XXX% to XXX% decreases mortgage payment by only X% in relative terms. Need the price drops to bring down both downpayment and monthly payment"
@nickgerli1 Avatar @nickgerli1 on X 2025-07-21 19:05:29 UTC 137.8K followers, 1115 engagements

"@atfgte03 Disagree. Typical value back then was $322k. For a city with great job growth high incomes and an educated population. Was fairly valued back in 2019"
@nickgerli1 Avatar @nickgerli1 on X 2025-07-21 19:10:32 UTC 137.8K followers, XXX engagements

"1) But there are big regional differences. South has 587k listings. (+7% from 2019) West has 236k listings (+7% from 2019) Midwest has 147k listings (-38% from 2019) Northeast has 106k listings (-49%) from 2019) So it's a tale of two housing markets"
@nickgerli1 Avatar @nickgerli1 on X 2025-07-08 20:49:08 UTC 137.7K followers, 4720 engagements