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@levenson_david Avatar @levenson_david David Levenson. It's time to reduce risk and beta.

There are discussions about the current market trends, with some analysts predicting a decline in tech stocks and bond yields, while others are warning about the potential risks of a strong dollar. The housing market is also being closely watched, with some noting a surge in purchase activity and refinancing, which could lead to a decrease in mortgage rates. Analysts are also commenting on the Federal Reserve's policies and their potential impact on the market, with some accusing Chairman Powell of being misleading.

Engagements: XXXXXXX #

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Followers: XXXXXX #

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Social Influence #

Social category influence finance #1779 countries #7872 cryptocurrencies #7437 stocks #5976 exchanges #2296 technology brands XXXX% currencies #223 social networks XXXX%

Social topic influence rates #26, fed #270, mortgage rate #9, cuts #823, federal reserve #298, china 0.21%, bitcoin #2409, debt 0.21%, nasdaq #144, bubble #180

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @davevermilion @kittiecougar99 @minnemacro @hendryhugh @thestalwart @barchart @alicatvt @lukegromen @robinjbrooks @offamilyoffice @benbrey @vikingmass @bigrick_1 @k_to_macro @nickthewombat @fibonacciinves1 @jaguaranalytics @drjstrategy @kinoks_718 @grantcardone

Top assets mentioned Bitcoin (BTC) Meme Alliance (MMA) Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.A) Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) Citigroup Inc (C)

Top Social Posts #

Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours

"@elerianm Rate cuts are coming and the will make new X year lows versus the dollar"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-15T00:59Z 17K followers, XXX engagements

"@brandonmoretz @JackFarley96 @AliCatVT I just listen to your episode on PC BDC rare earths. I have a model the is mortgage volatility driven and it has a divergent signal from 9/18/24 and 4/2/25 that now signals credit will widen more durably and invite more CDS driven selling of leveraged equities"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-12T17:02Z 16.8K followers, XXX engagements

"@dmunjal @DiMartinoBooth Do you want them to sell it off to hurt homeowners or are you just trying to lower the size of the balance sheet"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-14T18:47Z 17K followers, XXX engagements

"Continental Illinois National Bank required a bailout in May 1984. Jeffries and Co currently occupying a significant portion of the Continental Illinois building. On May XX 1984 30Y bond yields experienced a long term top at 13.94%. Over the XXXX month following the Continental Illinois Nation Bank bailout bond yields decreased by 6.80%. The bond price is now up X% from the October XX 2023 cycle low. How curious is it that XXX Madison Avenue in Manhattan has had both Continental Illinois and Jeffries as anchor tenants Rates melted in 1984 following the CI bailout and rates are poised to"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-11T18:13Z 17K followers, 4279 engagements

"$MMA #MMA #MSFTMETAAMZN not strong"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-06T13:58Z 17K followers, 1303 engagements

"China disinflation"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-15T02:03Z 17K followers, 2057 engagements

"I would clean your glasses so that you can see that the dollar stop going down which means dealers are very comfortable selling put skew and why is that the case thats the case because Chinas exports are no longer coming aggressively to the US. Theyre going to Europe and theyre causing those economies to roll over And those economies are too reliant on bank credit which is too reliant on a yield curve. They get X 1/2 times as much of their credit from their banks as we get from our banks they are 7/8. We are 2/8 and so the UK had a XXX of percent increase in one month and theyre unemployment"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-15T15:35Z 17K followers, XXX engagements

"The ultra bond is 9/32 from joining all other treasury maturities in a golden cross. Gasoline down XX% over versus last year. New Zealand cut rates twice as much as expected last week and its making new lows versus the dollar and Australia is not far behind and their response to market forces and you will get rate cuts more than guidance. If youre only watching gold youll have a problem"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-14T08:50Z 17K followers, 111.6K engagements

"A lot of this China language is designed to help drive oil prices down to get China to agree to support Russia as much as they are through oil purchases and were looking for oil to go to $XXXXX and that will help the arc of discussion for ending war"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-10T16:33Z 17K followers, 2107 engagements

"Swiss rates are negative and their currency continues to rise to all-time highs against the dollar and euro so they will have no choice but to go negative. The only question is whether they do it before or after the next ECB cut which is being signal by the lower rates in Germany and the UK"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-14T12:52Z 17K followers, 344.4K engagements

"The cost of funds now is XXXX% per year when youre funding in the secured overnight funding contract pegged to March 2027 and you can use that to buy US mortgages without credit risk and generate a spread of more than XXX basis points so why wouldnt you think the end of QT would lift the price of treasuries given that the funding cost is almost XX% lower than it was XX months ago. Its domestic carry"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-15T00:39Z 17K followers, XXX engagements

"The dollar destroys earnings growth when it rises and the ultra bond wide and Credit spreads when it widen and Powell was holding both down but I cant because most people are thinking that the fan has two mandates labor and price stability. Thats a farce. The Fed has two mandates a steep curve and tight spreads and he cant maintain that anymore in a world of rising ultra bond and rising dollar because the tightness of the spread was the belief that the Fed could keep the curve steep in the dollar week and they cant because of the mortgage dynamic which destroys duration and can only be"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-13T12:49Z 17K followers, 2647 engagements

"This is telling me Berkshire Hathaway is gonna have a very bad 4Q and 2026"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-15T15:14Z 17K followers, 20.6K engagements

"Brett you have to describe the three states QT Which is rolloff and reduced flattening because the fed flattens every dollar that comes in they sell that dollar and they buy notes and bonds. They do not buy bills. No QT which means theyre doing more flattening because anything that comes and they do in fact flatten and they dont roll off. And when they dont do rolloff and youre bringing in XX billion of mortgages to recycle into treasuries youre gonna speed up that mortgage activity and youre gonna end up putting a $X trillion bid in notes and bonds. We dont have enough paper to service that"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-15T02:24Z 17K followers, XXX engagements

"@Convertbond Go wider XLB NZD Aussie$ and oil"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-14T08:51Z 17K followers, XXX engagements

"MOVE is melting and it will invert the curve and drive bond yields below the March XX 2022 level when Powell ramped up his interference"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-03T01:04Z 17K followers, 24.8K engagements

"When you have the ultra bond driving utilities up XX% year to date total return and over the last month you have double digits XLU divided by bitcoin and if you volatility adjusted youre over XX% YTD. Its going to be a long crypto winter a very long winter. The Capital is exiting AI and crypto and its rolling down Beta. @GrantCardone @profplum99"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-15T15:01Z 17K followers, 3546 engagements

"Reclaiming the 50DMA"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-05T23:02Z 17K followers, 2877 engagements

"@PeterMallouk Not for long. Rate cuts will take tbill interest down"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-16T01:53Z 17K followers, XXX engagements

"Its true that economy is slowing down. Its also true that there is more than XX trillion in a home equity and the embedded option in a mortgage is getting more valuable because unlike the global financial crisis when you could not exercise your right to refinance because the main issue of home finance; Fannie Mae and the big banks were unable to do that. Independent mortgage brokers are reaching out constantly to people inviting them to purchase and cancel their mortgage at a lower rate and refinance so slow slowing and acknowledge slowing which clearly we can now with the widen and Credit"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-15T01:14Z 17K followers, XX engagements

"@huzaifa_mahenti @grok I would be very concerned about the appreciation when you sell short the Swiss Frank so shorting it is a risk even though there is positive carry"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-14T18:13Z 17K followers, 2893 engagements

"The cluster of mortgage rates during Covid significantly below has moderated to where we have more than XX% above X% and now we have a massive advantage of adjust break mortgages versus the higher fixed rate mortgages and with that will cause through its continuation lower is a mechanical flattening of the curve as canceled mortgages require duration replacement by Mortgage holders and thats a natural flattener"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-15T01:18Z 17K followers, XXX engagements

"Bush v Gore"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-15T13:12Z 17K followers, 1594 engagements

"@davevermilion What were you saying about a wedge Look at that Ultra Bond RSI wedge that will expose Powells inability to stay higher for longer. The UB Golden Cross and its official bull market at about XXX is the engine thats ACCELERATING XLU past BTC QQQ AI Crypto. The rising UB RSI is the pin that will pop the AI crypto yield curve bubble. The system is entering a period that will trigger the greatest sovereign duration shortage of all time or since May XX 1984 when bond yields declined by XXX% in 22M and 17D. When UMBS rise in price they lose duration. Falling yields will just shift the"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-15T12:26Z 17K followers, XXX engagements

"Powell signaled that he can no longer safely roll off the balance sheet and theyre gonna be ending that program soon with its up to XX billion monthly mortgage back securities. Recently Beth HammackCleveland Fed President wanted to increase selling of UMBS. Adjustable rate mortgages are now only XX basis points above their multiple year low yields. Today ARMs had a X bp steepening versus 30Y fixed. Down XX bp today versus only X for fixed. This will be toxic to bank balance sheets as mortgage rate decline. @profplum99 @deerpointmacro @davevermilion"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-14T18:28Z 17K followers, 36.5K engagements

"You are wrong. You just need Powell too slow. The rate of cuts that no other federal reserve chairman had been as reckless as him both with hikes and cuts and we will see dollar Ascension and all of this gorgeous gold that youve been in love with its gonna have a major breakdown and the deficits are gonna have a major breakdown and yields are gonna have major breakdowns because Powellcreated this inflation with his hikes in his cuts and its gonna go away and the housing bubble is gonna pay a lot of taxes and reduce the deficit like George Bush Senior"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-12T23:08Z 17K followers, 1645 engagements

"Melting MOVE will continue its decay and lead to the acceleration of the decline of mortgage rates and the outperformance of low beta versus high beta equities"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-03T20:43Z 16.9K followers, 7123 engagements

"Andreas I recommend you invest a little time research researching how mortgages operate in investment world . With a fed and a QT their free cash flow will increase as rates continue to fall from pre-payments and that will distort policy because it will be a powerful bid in the short end of the curve"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-15T01:21Z 17K followers, 1062 engagements

"CPI PCE doesnt like gasoline down so much year over year. The consumer like peace"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-14T08:46Z 17K followers, 1818 engagements

"@cherrygarciafan Its everywhere Indonesia Brazil and other EM"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-15T03:59Z 17K followers, XXX engagements

"Keep in mind as spread widen due deterioration of systemic liquidity credit default swap traders mechanically sell more equity as their hedge on underlying debt. That is a X way story. Tightening triggers their bid. Rate cuts or guidance early in the cycle and from inversion is a tightened. At this part of the cycle you can see we flattened today or on Friday but the last time China was near XXX basis points we stipend XX basis points in XX days but this is different because the curve being steep means that the inversion of the mortgage curve that led to deepening because of trapped duration"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-12T00:28Z 17K followers, 1561 engagements

"You will not be able to keep the XX year yield above X% much longer and above the XXX% that the XX year note fell to just before last years raid cuts The rally and the bond will cause mortgage prepayment acceleration and that will cause the fed to cut more and then youll start getting the carry trade in the long end of the curve"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-15T01:26Z 17K followers, XXX engagements

"BTC/XLU is negative 1000 basis points this month. And that is just getting started @davevermilion @GeorgeGammon @profplum99 @deerpointmacro @GrantCardone BTC/UB-4% this month. The AI crypto bubble is deflating and as you see utilities lead ultra Bond up faster than crypto and eventually faster than fang and then faster than the NASDAQ XXX and the longer that goes the more reality will sit in. I try to offer the information gap that will show up in price. My equilibrium models are signaling that equilibrium is much lower yield and sooner in time than people think"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-15T12:42Z 17K followers, 1917 engagements

"@yieldsearcher Keep in mind its not just the end of the day movement its the path of the day which could experience hedging not just at todays end"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-15T01:16Z 17K followers, XXX engagements

"@JacobKinge HODL = higher asset management fees"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-14T19:48Z 17K followers, 3693 engagements

"@BigRick_1 @Gupalo1974 I am not sure why this is complicated. Yield is just imputed from price"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-12T16:39Z 16.8K followers, XX engagements

"Youre only going to be accurate in the timeframe when Powell is over easing your whole thesis is gonna blow up when Powell cant ease more than the markets expecting. I was going to wait till a dollar was melting up to reengage with you but its so transparently obvious now that its going sideways for six months even during easing that its just gonna melt up to new highs of course overtime a X% deflation is going to cut the purchasing power of the dollar in half by XX% after XX years but thats just nonsense that youre talking about. Its just so exhausting to read your ear leaf system is just so"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-13T00:31Z 17K followers, XXX engagements

"@dmunjal @DiMartinoBooth America likes to use home equity as an ATM machine for the country so thats what driving down mortgage rates and theyre gonna do it again"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-14T19:07Z 17K followers, XXX engagements

"@vikeymehta @YouTube @GeorgeGammon Planck-Einstein is one of the analogs why bond yields can fall despite supply inflation and growth. Photos dont interact with the Higgs Field and they are not Pauli Exclusion half Interger spin"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-06T22:13Z 17K followers, XXX engagements

"UB breaking out of its rate cut range"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-14T07:34Z 17K followers, 1274 engagements

"Throw on housing elevated from higher policy and mortgage rates it almost makes you think that the fed is keeping rights high and order to keep inflation high. And now we have a XX basis points lower fixed mortgage versus last year with that divergence expected to widen dramatically and the adjustable rate is XX basis points lower than last year and that is likely to go to a even greater discount because of the expected rate cuts later this year. And you could see the ultra bond is dragging up the dollar as the world is slowing and oil is flowing and prices are falling and the main street"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-07T19:45Z 17K followers, XXX engagements

"@JackFarley96 Private credit is the risk sentinel. XLF is still up on the year"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-11T14:40Z 16.9K followers, 1191 engagements

"I completely appreciate your comment and I think youre terrific. Its just everybody is this stuff. Everybody is relying on the fed to be higher for longer and as you can see were down at XXXXX% and that is a very cheap funding cost. Tell me that AI has much more to go when people dont have the guts to drive this right back up to three particularly when the fence says their terminal low is XXX this is XX basis points below there and I dont think we stop there"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-15T01:33Z 17K followers, XXX engagements

"@yieldsearcher My comment was only limited to end of day price today was not a reflection of the massive morning bid and the total give up of it and then the return to show like there wasnt much"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-15T01:34Z 17K followers, XXX engagements

"@richardcalhoun @elerianm Europe is XXX% more dependent on the shape of the yield curve for their credit formation so now the dollar is not going to do anything other than spending some churning on the way to decade highs"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-15T14:51Z 17K followers, XXX engagements

"It is my view that we are about to enter the greatest sovereign duration shortage since the XXX% decline in bond yields since 5/30/84 XXXXX% and XX months and XX days later rates were at 7.14%. Oil is telling you a story more powerful than gold which is X% of the size of oil from a global extraction standpoint. Everybody must follow Mike Green Thats only X people I recommend @davevermilion @hendry_hugh @deerpointmacro are X I had been following. I met Mike Green in St Barts. Mike was the most eloquent speaker there certainly more than me. And you should listen to it interview interviews on"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-14T12:24Z 17K followers, 1150 engagements

"@FedGuy12 If Powell was a loyal American he would participate in offset Chinas malign influence. He prefers however to make sure the Democrats win the midterm election"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-16T01:02Z 17K followers, XXX engagements

"@TheStalwart Thats the appropriate volatily adjusted price movement in a BTC bear phase. 3X NDX volatility and 4X SPX"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-14T15:09Z 17K followers, XXX engagements

"@brandonmoretz @JackFarley96 Jack @AliCatVT sent me a message to DM you. Please check your spam if you dont see it"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-12T16:21Z 16.9K followers, XXX engagements

"Today will discuss the catastrophe in crypto the XX% decline and the destruction of XXX million accounts. Microsoft Meta and Amazon are breaking down and bonds are approaching a bull market. Set a reminder for my upcoming Space"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-12T00:12Z 17K followers, 2256 engagements

"So the second part for clarification is I think this is a risk event thats happening and the fact that the move index is elevated means its not a move index in the 50s where you could just smother bond put you and just juice the bond ZR0Z UB1 ZB1 TLT are in a golden Cross and ZR0Z being the longest but because it pays a dividend there is a race between that and ultra bond and ultra bond being a futures contract it has the funding of the balance sheet embedded in its contract role. So Im looking at ZROZ as a leader for a bull flattener or the bond future or TLT if theyre fighting that flat in"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-15T03:21Z 17K followers, XXX engagements

"Bitcoin has been leading the way lower since the peak and Bitcoins recovery from our cover at under 76000 on April X at X AM and you can look at our highlights demonstrated that Bitcoin is no longer more volatile than the NASDAQ XXX it underperformed in that timeframe and so its done Im not saying you can never come back but its got to go below this year low and last year low and the year prior"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-15T13:26Z 17K followers, XXX engagements

"@TheStalwart Bitcoin fell to 75K on 4/8/25. Today BTC traded at 102K only a XX% appreciation since the post Liberation Day lows. This is an extremely bad sign for the future price of bitcoin "
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-11T02:32Z 16.9K followers, XXX engagements

"You dont understand the goal. Trump won. The goal is to get mortgage bonds up in price which is down in yield. Trump beat Powell. Someone just bought a X 7/8 (1.875%) SOFR Fed Funds contract for March of 2027 which the FOMC say will bottom at XXXX% Dont believe Powell. The AI/crypto bubble is deflating. Always consult an advisor. Not us. Leadership will widen from XLU to XLV XLP XHB IMBs XBI ZROZ For more sophisticated investors RFIX TMF will get you huge duration exposure which is going to be in the greatest shortage/deficit of all time. Everybody thinks its easy to generate M2. Go tell that"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-15T11:26Z 17K followers, XXX engagements

"I think eventually when the dollar is rolling over it will be because the US economy is growing above X% from the mortgage activity and we will not get the same trauma as the global financial crisis in the high-yield space so that itll be a much shorter corrective period and then when were growing too fast everyone is gonna want to fundin shorter rates and just that will accelerate the money supply but we have to deflate this inflation delusion first"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-10T13:31Z 17K followers, XX engagements

"@NickTimiraos @Lingling_Wei @GavinBade Xi doesnt understand mortgages. His action will smother mortgage rates"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-15T04:00Z 17K followers, 2837 engagements

"@fejau_inc There is another way of looking at it deficits are coming down by populism and lower central bank rates will lower debt service and that will lead to a flattening of global curves and a reduction in US mortgage rates and a shortage of dollar assets in the world"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-06T03:06Z 16.9K followers, 1255 engagements

"Do you notice a depression like someone pushed a ball into this trend line and deformed it and now its restoring itself those are trapped dollar bears who dont understand whats going on. We flooded the world with dollars in front of liberation and then we kept that normal flow"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-13T13:05Z 17K followers, 2878 engagements

"Global curves flattening in synchronization. This is not September October 2024. Xi doesnt understand US mortgages. Tariff retaliation will drive US mortgage rates lower in this part of the cycle and make Trump more popular not less"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-14T07:45Z 17K followers, 2301 engagements

"I recommend that you clean your glasses and take a look at oil prices and take a look at the headlines in the Middle East. How can you think oil prices will be going up with an ocean loaded with oil cargo and peace breaking out in the Middle East and that will trigger of the end of the Russian war on what planet could anyone possibly imagine without illusion that were gonna have a bear this is so insane. Its almost bizarre and corrupt"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-09T20:39Z 17K followers, 2410 engagements

"There is zero possibility of a recession OK one percent with home equity at its highest ever at the lowest since the 50s and independent mortgage brokers that control XX times as much origination as JP Morgan and their ability to provide Credit in a housing without the friction of every other cycle there is no math that could get you a contraction. You can have a contraction in 4Q which is unlikely but then youll get re-expansion in one Q from the budget Bill the issue is do you slow down and the answer is yes and thats slow down is enough to create some challenges for a lot of credit holders"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-07T00:12Z 16.9K followers, XXX engagements

"Private credit and or PE and or asset management. These are telling a story"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-03T00:58Z 17K followers, 84K engagements

"@chamath Powell has been ahead of the curve Powell ease policy too much. He shouldve been a little more deliberate and allowed long rates to lead the way lower like green span did because the right cut now was more intense than it was XX years ago"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-15T01:17Z 17K followers, XXX engagements

"Youre one of these ridiculously incredibly unsophisticated people that have no idea how mortgages operate and have no idea what causes rates to go up you think that growth inflation and supply or driving its unbelievable a dollar fell XX% in inflation barely up. Whats gonna happen when the dollar goes sideways when the dollar goes up whats gonna happen when we have the deflation of text stock rolling overIve come to realize you know absolutely nothing"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-13T00:37Z 17K followers, XXX engagements

"#MMA MSFT META AMZN $MMA"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-03T03:10Z 17K followers, 1827 engagements

"Its the direction my friend its not the current rate and mortgage rates are gonna fall a lot faster than anybody could imagine because the no supply of them is XX% of X% and above and lets say another XX going down to five but because independent mortgage brokers are such a large component of origination now where the top two are XX times J.P. Morgan youre gonna see a massive amount of duration destruction and a massive grab for duration and will be self reinforcing"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-15T01:31Z 17K followers, XXX engagements

"51.4 is a problem for the curve bubble @davevermilion @deerpointmacro"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-15T12:48Z 17K followers, 33.9K engagements

"$ at XXXXX is a X month high. That will signal greater deterioration in global dollar liquidity and will start to have an effect on tech and export earnings"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-09T12:44Z 17K followers, 2154 engagements

"The X horseman of the AI apocalypse are XLU XLV XLP ZROZ. Their strength is the deleveraging. Their strengths are the pins that burst the AI bubble. Monitor the curve 2/10 and MMA META MSFT AMZN. Their failure is X trillion and half of gold. The increasing ratio capex/FCF leaves X options; less share count reduction or less capex. The former will be seen and the latter will read. Neither willl be news or a black swan. They are inevitable when rising treasury prices occur in a rising dollar like now. This requires more collateral to maintain system leverage and thats not available in the US"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-08T12:05Z 17K followers, 28.2K engagements

"@UrbanKaoboy Now do Citigroup"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-12T23:12Z 17K followers, XXX engagements

"Crypto was rolling over just as ultra bond is rolling up. This is centripetal acceleration clockwise and counter clockwise. UB long funded with BTC short looks like its accelerating despite all the policy interference. This is a negative equity risk premium polarity. @profplum99"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-15T16:44Z 17K followers, 2296 engagements

"You obviously dont know very much about the bond market or you wouldnt say something is ridiculous is what you just said. The mortgage market drives the bond market. It is not the other way around just like the S&P drives the NASDAQ not the other way around. The basis is the S&P and mortgages and the spread has become NASDAQ and treasuries. Dont watch the shiny object"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-14T19:14Z 17K followers, XXX engagements

"Youve got to stop looking in the rearview mirror youve got to start looking forward or thats what the super acceleration liquidity failure happens. Youve never had a deal with an independent mortgage broker controlling XX% of the market or XX times as much as JP Morgan youve never had to contend with a federal reserve that cut rates to a near terminal low and drove up the market. You have novel things and youre gonna get shocked and destroyed if your only thing that you do is look backwards youve got to look forward for guidance or youll just miss the biggest part of the move. Itll be Shell"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-13T19:59Z 17K followers, XXX engagements

"@brian_armstrong 1984 all over again"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-11T21:09Z 17K followers, XXX engagements

"Extremely sure. You would get the same response from Don Rogosin if you asked him he spent XX years on the UST and mortgage desk at GS and then X at DB before GFC. I believe the FOMC always has tension in managing the X primary threats to bank stability; credit (spreads) and Asset Liability duration Mismatch (ALM) the failure to maintain Asset liability Parity (ALP) The FOMC can reduce rates without concern as credit spreads widen when the yield curve is inverted or flat. Unfortunately for the FOMC they cant ease aggressively during a steep curve because they risk widening bank ALM. Silicon"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-14T12:23Z 17K followers, 1335 engagements

"@TheStalwart And that lasted until Trump decided to talk about cooking oil"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-15T01:15Z 17K followers, XXX engagements

"@KatusaResearch Its not about the food supply its about the reversal of the reversal. Trump wants oil in the 40s as soon as possible. He got $XX off the price in April that same decline would end the war in Russia because the ruble cant stay elevated at $XX per barrel received by Russia"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-15T00:52Z 17K followers, XXX engagements

"What happens when rates go through the year low what happens when the curves inverted in funding off the long into the curve becomes cheaper because a speeding up of mortgage average life means that there wont be any housing funding past seven years and these battery storage systems have more than a decade of life so when you find batteryat under X% it makes solar power so much more profitable because it becomes effectively on demand power not based on the clouds"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-12T23:20Z 16.8K followers, XXX engagements

"Its important to understand sequencing. There was no risk of a durable credit event until UB is it a golden cross. Now we are there and the risk-free part of spreads are going up in price and thats a two sided widening which is novel for this cycle. And we need to MOVE index to break down because youre not getting a meaningful durable rally under elevated MOVE. A fat man cannot run a marathon. Gamma cannot run when Vega is fat. Vega is not gonna slim down until put skew breaks down"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-15T14:42Z 17K followers, XXX engagements

"Everyone is looking at the widening spreads but theyve only been focused on the loss of bid from the deleveraging and the deflation of debt and now theyre gonna have to contend with a bull flattener which will be like a crowbar widening spreads from the risk free rate going down while the risk rate rises or a stable A flattener is money destructive a flat or under a steep mortgage curve is more aggressively money destructive and we dont have enough money to fuse spreads together like weve had the last year. This is not going to be a random thing of impatience the fed is been in a Gordian Knot"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-12T22:00Z 16.8K followers, XXX engagements

"Can we go over this chart because Im not reading what youre saying To me doesnt it seem that people are saying they want real US collateral from the government not from the banks and that swaps are tightening and not that theyre widening aret they at levels near where equity peaked on 2/29/25"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-15T02:18Z 17K followers, XXX engagements

"@davevermilion CAG makes Hebrew National hot dogs"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-09-24T19:45Z 17K followers, XXX engagements

"And then they fed cut more than everybody else and reduced the policy rate differential but as the ultra bond rises into its golden cross and joins all the other maturity structures that mechanical curve flattening will flatten the global curve and trigger a policy response because internationally they are XXX% more dependent on the banks for their credit. So you gotta watch the ultra Bond or ZROZ and the dollar you can also watch Kiwi Aussie and Looney as the leadership of the failure of their currency as well as Indonesia which is sent for an all-time low going back through COVID-19"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-13T13:07Z 17K followers, 1920 engagements

"@DowdEdward You predicated that on a global recession and the US is not going into recession so the price is that youre saying but its not because of the US recession and thats an important distinction because a lot of things that would be going down in a recession wont be"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-14T09:28Z 17K followers, XXX engagements

"40 year mortgage is not an option. It would take too long to develop liquidity so people arent gonna buy it and itll make rates higher. My general thinking is maybe somebody understands that rates are gonna collapse just like the hostage deal. Hamas likely concluded that with 800000 of the X million Gozens exiting which they could not stop that Israel would just run over and kill 10000 of the low ranking newly higher and they would not have been able to keep them together so by giving the hostages back alive They could have some sway over how they act but if they waited for Israel to kill the"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-15T01:44Z 17K followers, XX engagements

"@FibonacciInves1 Why Ironic. Tariffs produce global slack"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-15T04:02Z 17K followers, XXX engagements

"Your general sense is what Beth Hammak was arguing for which was to speed up the roll off of mortgage back securities because what will happen as as rates go lower which you point out thats when youre gonna have real problems because too much cash will build up and will run out of treasuries because the Fed will be bidding at the auction with massive amounts of funds as rates on mortgages travel below X% and then ultimately when I get into the fours and move towards the threes youll end up getting $XXX billion-$500 billion thats XX billion a month and they have to go to the long end. They"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-15T01:49Z 17K followers, XXX engagements

"@davevermilion @DanChesler There will be multiple waves so what you did will exploit a big downdraft and youll close out and then youll wait till a failed lower high and reload. But then again you may blow out your SOXS and swap that to into SOXL then SOXS etc"
X Link @levenson_david 2025-10-11T02:12Z 17K followers, XXX engagements